央行独立性——一项受到威胁的传统

ABC 听播

ABC Listen.

播客、广播、新闻、音乐等。

Podcasts, radio, news, music, and more.

我是安东尼·伯克，ABC国家广播电台《设计之道》的主持人。

Anthony Burke here, host of By Design on ABC Radio National.

一档探讨塑造日常生活的空间、系统和物品背后的巧妙理念与人性故事的节目。

A show about the clever ideas and human stories behind the spaces, systems and objects shaping everyday life.

无论你对建筑、室内设计、时尚还是其间任何领域感兴趣，我们都会揭示设计在快速变化的世界中为何重要。

Whether you're curious about architecture, interior design, fashion or anything in between, we reveal why design matters in a rapidly changing world.

《设计之道》，在ABC听播。

By Design, on ABC Listen.

他的名字是凯文·沃尔什。

His name is Kevin Walsh.

他是一名经济学家，如果唐纳德·特朗普如愿以偿，他很快将成为世界上最重要的经济人物之一。

He's an economist, and if Donald Trump has his way, he'll soon become one of the most important economic figures in the world.

美国总统已推荐沃尔什接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔，担任美国联邦储备系统（美国央行）主席。

The US president has tipped Walsh to replace Jerome Powell as chair of the US Federal Reserve, America's Central Bank.

凯文·沃尔什对央行独立性有着明确的看法。

And Kevin Walsh is pretty clear about his view on central bank independence.

当然，他支持这一原则，但并非毫无保留。

Sure, he's in favour of it, but not unequivocally so.

我相信货币政策的运作独立性是一个政治经济问题。

I believe in the operational independence and the conduct of monetary policy as a political economy matter.

我认为，如果世界、市场和国会成员认为经济状况更好，那会更有利。

I think the economy is better off if the world perceives, markets perceive, members of congress perceive.

你得让中央银行家们看到他们所能见到的最佳状况。

You got central banks that are calling it the best they see it.

担任中央银行家并不是给完美者的奖赏。

Being a central banker is not a prize for the perfect.

这些工作非常艰难，充满不确定性。

These are hard jobs, lots of uncertainty.

数据一团糟。

The data is a mess.

但如果人们认为他们在尽力做出公正的判断，世界会更好。

But the world's better off if they think they're doing their their level best to call balls and strikes.

但货币政策的执行并不意味着美联储不应该受到批评。

But the operational conduct of monetary policy doesn't mean that the Fed shouldn't be criticized.

央行官员不应该是被宠坏的王子。

Central bankers should not be pampered princes.

如果希尔主席和他的同事们认为我们在央行的工作做得糟糕，他们应该敢于指出来。

If chairman Hill and his colleagues think that we're doing a terrible job at the central bank, they should be able to call it out.

总统也是如此。

Same thing with the president.

你好，欢迎来到ReVision。

Hello, and welcome to ReVision.

我是安东尼·费内尔。

I'm Anthony Fennell.

今天在节目中，我们将探讨独立性与问责制的问题。

Today on the program, a question of independence and accountability.

中央银行在稳定经济、防止危机方面所发挥的历史性作用。

Central banks and the historic role they play in calming economic waters and preventing crises.

美国在这个故事中固然重要，但并非全部。

Now The United States is important in this story, but it's not the be all and the end all.

关于独立性的争议最近在美国确实变得十分激烈，但政治领导人与央行官员之间的紧张关系在全球各地都在以不同程度上演。

Questions about independence have certainly come to a fiery ahead in The US recently, but tensions between political leaders and central bankers are occurring to one degree or another right across the world.

因此，在我们回到美国的情况之前，我们先来看看中央银行是如何以及为何形成如今的形态。

So, before we return to the situation in The USA, we'll first look at how and why central banks took on their current form.

在此过程中，我们将以澳大利亚储备银行作为例子。

Along the way, we'll use Australia's Reserve Bank as a bit of an example.

我是约翰·霍金斯博士。

I'm Doctor John Hawkins.

我是堪培拉大学政府学院的院长。

I'm head of the Canberra School of Government at the University of Canberra.

一些中央银行有着非常悠久的历史。

So some central banks have very long histories.

瑞典的里卡多·瓦格于1668年成立。

Sweden's RICHARD VAGUE was founded in 1668.

英格兰银行成立于1694年。

The Bank of England was founded in 1694.

不过，它们在17世纪时并不像今天的中央银行那样运作，而是经历了一个渐进的演变过程。

They didn't all operate as central banks do today back in the seventeenth century though, so there'd been a gradual sort of evolution.

可能在第二次世界大战之后，许多新的中央银行成立，中央银行的职能才逐渐演变成我们今天所熟知的样子。

And probably after the Second World War, a lot of new central banks were established, and central banking became much more like we know it now.

在加拿大、新西兰和美国等许多发达国家，随着工业化加速和经济扩张，二十世纪初开始迫切需要设立中央银行。

In many developed countries like Canada, New Zealand, and The United States, the need for a central bank began to take on a sense of urgency at the beginning of the twentieth century, as industrialisation geared up and economies expanded.

澳大利亚也是如此，但在澳大利亚，建立一个专门的机构花费了相当长的时间。

That was also true of Australia, but in Australia's case, creating a purpose built institution took considerable time.

因此，其前身是澳大利亚联邦银行，该银行于1911年成立。

So the precursor was the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, and that was set up in 1911.

当时设立它的时候，它更像一家储蓄和贸易银行。

Now, when that was set up, it was more as a saving and trading bank.

但它也承担了一些初步的、可以说是雏形的中央银行职能。

But it had some central banking, embryonic, if you like, central banking responsibilities.

随着多年来立法的推进，比如1924年和1945年的法案，它逐渐承担了更多的中央银行职责。

And with legislation over the years, 1924, 1945, it gradually took on more central banking roles.

到了20世纪50年代，人们开始感到一种矛盾：澳大利亚联邦银行既是与私营银行竞争的参与者，同时又是监管者，这被认为赋予了它不公平的优势。

And by the 1950s, there was a sort of tension that the Commonwealth Bank was seen as both a competitor on the field with the private banks, but also the referee at the same time, and that was sort of seen as giving it an unfair advantage.

因此，逐渐出现了压力，要求将商业银行业务与中央银行职能分离开来。

So there became pressure to split off those commercial banking operations from the central banking role.

于是，1960年澳大利亚储备银行成立，它纯粹是一家中央银行，而储蓄和贸易银行业务则由澳大利亚联邦银行公司负责运营，两者被分拆了。

So in 1960, the Reserve Bank of Australia opens, and it's purely a central bank, and the savings and trading bank operations are run by the Commonwealth Banking Corporation, so they're split.

那么，中央银行究竟是为了什么目的而设立的呢？

So what exactly were central banks created to do?

它们满足了什么样的需求？

What need do they serve?

最初，中央银行的职责是发行货币纸币。

Initially, it was the issue of currency banknotes.

这些纸币由中央银行印制。

They're printed by the central bank.

在许多国家，中央银行还负责监管银行，尽管在澳大利亚，这一职能现在部分由澳大利亚审慎监管局（APRA）接管。

It also supervises the banks in many countries, although that's now partly taken over by APRA in Australia, Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority.

中央银行同时也是最后贷款人。

The central bank's also the lender of last resorts.

因此，如果一家银行陷入困境，出现挤兑，但其基本面仍然健康，中央银行就可以提供资金帮助其渡过难关。

So if a bank gets in trouble, there's a run on the bank, but it's sort of fundamentally sound, the central bank can provide money to tide it over.

这些就是中央银行的一些主要职能。

So there's some of the main roles of the central bank.

然而，如今中央银行主要因通过设定利率来管理经济而为人所知。

Today though, they're mainly known for setting interest rates as a way of managing the economy.

通常，中央银行会宣布其希望在隔夜同业拆借市场中实现的利率，而这一利率随后会传导至客户所支付的利率。

So typically, the central bank will announce the interest rate it wants to see in the overnight interbank market, and that interest rate then flows into the interest rates that customers pay.

比如澳大利亚的住房抵押贷款利率。

So interest rates on home mortgages in Australia, for example.

而这反过来又影响经济增长的速度、经济状况以及通货膨胀。

And that in turn affects the pace of economic growth and state of the economy and therefore inflation.

自20世纪90年代初以来，央行越来越倾向于设定通货膨胀目标，以此作为决定加息或降息的依据。

And since the early 1990s, increasingly central banks have looked at an inflation target to guide them in whether they put interest rates up or put interest rates down.

因此，他们会评估：通胀前景是否高于目标？如果是，我们就加息；还是低于目标？如果是，我们就降息？

So they look and say, is the outlook for inflation higher than the target, in which case we'll put interest rates up, or are we going below the target, in which case we'd lower interest rates?

这是一个重要的观点：尽管主流媒体和许多政客通常只关注利率决策对房价和住房可负担性的影响，但像澳大利亚储备银行这样的央行，其真正关注的是通货膨胀，是控制通胀。

And that's an important point to understand, because while mainstream media and many politicians routinely focus simply on how interest rate decisions will impact on housing prices and housing affordability, central banks like Australia's Reserve Bank actually have their eye on inflation, on keeping it down.

而这种对通胀的关注，正是央行独立性理念形成和发展的关键。

And that focus on inflation was key to the notion and development of central bank independence.

因此，在储备银行成立初期的几十年里，我们实行的是固定汇率制度，最初与英镑挂钩，后来转为与美元挂钩，再后来转为与一篮子货币挂钩。

So for the early years of the Reserve Bank through the nineteen sixties, we had a fixed exchange rate, initially to sterling, then to the dollar, then to a basket of currencies.

随后我们转向了可调整的浮动汇率制，但所有这些固定汇率制度似乎都未能很好地发挥作用。

We then had an adjustable floating exchange rate, and then all those fixed exchange rate regimes didn't seem to work all that well.

20世纪70年代我们经历了高通胀。

We had high inflation in 1970s.

有许多学术研究考察了中央银行被视为受政府支配的国家，以及那些被认为更具独立性的中央银行。

There were a lot of academic studies that looked at countries where the central bank was regarded as being sort of beholden to the government and the central banks that were seen as more independent.

例如，德国和瑞士被视为独立的国家。

So Germany and Switzerland, for example, were seen as independent.

人们观察到，像德国和瑞士这样的国家，其通胀率远低于其他国家。

And it was observed that inflation was much lower in countries like Germany and Switzerland than it was in other countries.

因此，学术界开始推动赋予中央银行独立性。

And so there came a push from academics to give independence to the Central Bank.

于是从中得出的教训是：由一个独立机构根据国家的经济需求来设定利率，比由政客根据其短期政治利益来设定利率要更好。

And so the lesson that was drawn from that was, well, it'd be better if you had an independent body setting interest rates based on the economic needs of the country, rather than politicians setting interest rates based on their short term political interests.

20世纪70年代初，通胀成为全球性严重问题，促使尼克松政府终止了二战后建立的布雷顿森林体系。

Now, the emergence of inflation as a serious global problem in the early 1970s saw the Nixon administration terminate what was known as the Bretton Woods Agreement, established after World War two.

一个国家货币的强弱取决于该国经济的实力。

The strength of a nation's currency is based on the strength of that nation's economy.

因此，我已指示财政部长采取必要措施，以捍卫美元免受投机者的冲击。

Accordingly, I have directed the secretary of the treasury to take the action necessary to defend the dollar against the speculators.

我已指示康纳利部长暂停

I have directed secretary Connolly to suspend

布雷顿森林协议旨在促进全球金融市场的稳定，其做法是将美元价值与黄金价值挂钩。

The Bretton Woods agreement had sought to promote financial stability in global markets, and it did that by pegging the value of the US dollar to the value of gold.

通过这种方式，该协议实际上将主要世界货币与美元绑定在一起。

And in so doing, the agreement effectively tied major world currencies to the US dollar.

因此，美国突然退出该协议令国际金融市场感到恐慌。

So America's shock withdrawal from the agreement spooked the international financial markets.

来自密歇根州立大学的央行专家克里斯蒂娜·博迪亚。

Central bank expert Cristina Bodea from Michigan State University.

问题是，央行和各国普遍发现自己身处这样一个世界：好吧。

The thing is that central banks and countries in general find themselves in a world where okay.

那么，我们该如何实施货币政策？

So how are we gonna run our monetary policy?

应该遵循哪些基本原则？

What should be guiding principles?

即使我们没有货币锚定，我们还能实施一种非通胀的货币政策吗？

Can we run a monetary policy that is noninflationary even if we don't have an anchor to our currency?

在七十年代中期和后期，你经历了一个通胀环境，汽油变得更贵，这普遍导致了价格上涨。

And in the mid seventies and then late seventies, you had an inflationary environment where gas was more expensive, which translated generally in higher prices.

所以问题逐渐变成了：好吧。

And so the question sort of became, okay.

那么在这种环境下，我们应该怎么做？

So what should we do in this environment?

我们显然面临着通胀问题。

We clearly have a problem with inflation.

顺便提一下，这一时期我们还明显面临增长问题。

Incidentally, we also have a clear problem with growth in the period.

那么我们该怎么办？

So what should we do?

答案在一定程度上来自于德国中央银行——德意志联邦银行的行为方式，当时它专注于控制通货膨胀。

The answer kind of came from the way in which the Central Bank of Germany, the Bundesbank behaved, which at the time focused on controlling inflation.

结果证明，这在当时的情境下是正确的应对方式。

And that turned out to be sort of the right response in the situation.

随着越来越多的重要国家，比如英国、日本，修改法律以赋予其各自国家中央银行更多独立性，中央银行独立性逐渐成为黄金标准。

And central bank independence became a gold standard as more and more countries important countries like The UK, like Japan, reformed their laws so that they gave more independence to their respective national central banks.

它也逐渐成为良好治理的规范，国际货币基金组织将其采纳为新兴经济体、即发展程度较低的经济体开展业务的方式。

And it also became sort of a norm of good governance as the International Monetary Fund adopted it as the way for new economies, well, lesser developed economies, to run their business.

是的。

Yes.

新西兰是第一个宣布通胀目标的国家。

So New Zealand was the first country to announce inflation target.

那是在1990年。

That was in 1990.

加拿大在1991年紧随其后。

And Canada followed in 1991.

澳大利亚也是较早采用这一做法的国家之一，从1992年到1994年，我们逐步明确了2%至3%的通胀目标。

And Australia was also a fairly early adopter, so between 1992 and 1994 we gradually firmed up our 2% to 3% inflation target.

除非中央银行能够控制利率并调整利率以实现通胀目标，否则它无法达成目标，而不会受到政府干预，比如政府说：‘马上就要大选了，别把利率提这么高。’

A central bank's not going to be able to achieve an inflation target unless it has control over interest rates and can move interest rates so to achieve the inflation target and not have a government saying, we've got an election coming up with your low interest rates.

在我看来，政治家和中央银行之间始终存在某种紧张关系。

You know, there's tension always, or it seems to me there's ongoing tension between politicians and central banks.

这在一定程度上是因为政治家们既想利用中央银行及其建议，又想把责任推给别人——说白了，他们有个替罪羊，这想法虽然有点愤世嫉俗，但我觉得并不完全错。

Is that in part due to the fact that politicians benefit from having a central bank and its advice, but also it's a way of deniability, of of blaming things on someone else, you know, they've got a scapegoat in a sense, or is that a very cynical way of looking at It's slightly cynical, but it's not untrue, I think.

所以，约翰·霍华德、彼得·科斯特洛和保罗·基廷都曾不同时期将选举失利归咎于中央银行。

So both John Howard and Peter Costello and Paul Keating have at various times blamed the the central bank for losing elections.

基廷认为，储备银行在大选前降息太慢；而霍华德和科斯特洛则对中央银行在竞选期间加息感到不满，因为当时他们的口号之一就是‘维持低利率’。

So Keating thought that the Reserve Bank was too slow to get interest rates down before the election he lost, and Howard and Costello were annoyed that the Central Bank put interest rates up during an election campaign where one of their slogans was keeping interest rates low.

因此，确实存在政治家对中央银行的独立性感到不满的时候。

So there certainly can be times when politicians are not happy about the independence of the Central Bank.

但你说得对，这也意味着他们可以推卸那些明知会不得人心的利率决策的责任。

But you're right that that also means they can sort of disown interest rate decisions that they know will be unpopular.

我认为这正是吉姆·查默斯在利率上升或未如人们所期望那样下降时，经常提及独立央行的原因。

Think that's one reason that Jim Chalmers often refers to the independent central bank, when interest rates have gone up or when they've not come down, people had hoped they would be.

这位是现任澳大利亚财长吉姆·查默斯吗？

This is Jim Chalmers, the current Australian treasurer?

是的。

Yes.

因此，央行在各国都有其特定的职能，但当然，我们的经济在很多方面都是相互关联的，对吧？

So they they have a very specific role within a country, but, of course, all of our economies in lots of ways are tied, aren't they?

有些国家的关联性比其他国更强。

Some much more so than others.

各国央行之间有多少国际合作？

How much international cooperation is there between central banks?

由于实行了浮动汇率，各国之间的利率关联性已不如从前紧密。

The interest rates between countries are less tied than they were because we've got floating exchange rates.

不过，央行之间确实会合作，它们会聚在一起交流经验，主要途径就是在瑞士巴塞尔的国际清算银行举行会议。

The central banks do, though, cooperate, and they meet together to share their experiences, and the main way they do that is through meetings at the Bank of International Settlements in Basel in Switzerland.

所以每隔几个月，来自世界各地的央行官员就会聚集在一起，分享他们的经验。

So once every couple of months, the central bankers from around the world gather and they share their experiences.

它的资产负债表规模很大。

It's got a significant balance sheet.

它还为一些较小的央行管理储备资产。

It does reserves management for some smaller central banks as well.

但它的主要作用是为央行官员提供一个场所，让他们与同行交流、分享经验，了解哪些做法有效、哪些无效。

But its main role is a place where central bankers can come, talk to their peers, share their experiences, learn what worked, what didn't work.

问题是，这些央行仍然是政府的一部分，因为政府在央行的运作方式上仍有很大发言权。

The thing is, right, these central banks are still part of the government in the sense that governments still have a lot to say regarding how central banks are run.

你知道，政府任命央行官员。

You know, governments appoint the central bankers.

央行官员仍然要对立法机构或行政机构作出回应。

Central bankers still respond to legislatures or maybe to the executives.

立法机构可以修改法律。

Legislatures can change the laws.

独立性实际上意味着中央银行不应受选举压力的影响，它们在做决策时应主要依据数据，而不是选举周期。

Independence really kind of just means that the central banks are not supposed to answer to electoral incentives and that they should be considering generally the data when they make their decisions, not the electoral cycle.

但我也想指出，之所以需要独立性，是因为货币政策非常强大、反应迅速。

But I also wanna point out that the reason for independence is that monetary policy is very, very potent, very fast acting.

利用货币政策暂时刺激经济的诱惑非常大。

It's kind of very tempting to use it to boost temporarily an economy.

独立性正是为了遏制这种诱惑。

Independence is just putting a break on that temptation.

这并不意味着政府不会要求降低利率。

This doesn't mean that governments don't ask for lower rates.

世界各地的政府，在面对半独立或独立的中央银行时，都会要求低利率。

Governments all over the world, when faced with a quasi independent or independent central bank, they ask for low rates.

政府总是希望利率更低。

Governments always want lower rates.

谢谢大家的到来。

Well, thank you all for coming.

所以今天，正如你们所知，董事会决定将现金利率上调25个基点至3.85%。

So today, as you know, the board decided to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%.

最近的一系列数据让董事会清楚地看到，潜在的通胀势头依然过强。

The recent run of data gives the board a clear enough view that the underlying pulse of inflation is too strong.

我们更新了对经济的评估和前景，并得出结论，现金利率已不再

We've updated our assessment and outlook for the economy and concluded that the cash rate was no longer

随着独立性的确立，近年来也形成了一种预期，即央行需要更加透明负责。

a With independence, there's also developed an expectation in recent years that central banks need to be more accountable.

这一点在澳大利亚确实如此。

That's certainly been the case in Australia.

现在更加注重公开决策的过程和原因。

There's now an emphasis on openness about how decisions are made and why.

这种变化主要源于货币政策——也就是利率调控的正式说法——这些宏观层面的决策会对普通民众的财务状况产生重大影响。

That change has come about largely because decisions on monetary policy the fancy name for interest rate manipulation well, those decisions taken at the macro level can have serious impacts on the finances of ordinary citizens.

过去，央行往往比较隐秘，很少与媒体交流。

There was a time when central banks tended to be bit sort of secretive and not talk to the press very much.

著名的是，美国联邦储备系统的主席艾伦·格林斯潘曾说过：‘如果你认为我讲清楚了，那你一定是误解了我。’

Famously, Alan Greenspan, the head of the US Federal Reserve, once said, If you think I've made myself clear, you must have misunderstood me.

这种稍微保持模糊的想法，已经发生了变化。

This idea of being a little bit ambiguous, that sort of changed.

因此，通货膨胀目标制的一部分理念就是设定一个明确的目标，并让央行清楚地表达其决策内容及原因。

So part of the idea of inflation targeting is is having a clear target and the central bank clearly expressing what decisions it was taking and why it was taking them.

随着时间推移，政府开始发表更多演讲，而根据最近的改革，每次央行会议后，无论是否调整利率，政府都会召开近一小时的新闻发布会，媒体可以就任何问题提问并获得回应。

And over time, the government has started to give more speeches, and as part of the recent reforms, after every Central Bank board meeting, regardless of whether or not they've changed interest rates, the government fronts the press for almost an hour press conference, and they can ask questions about anything they want, they get a response.

每年四次，储备银行会发布一份详细文件，阐述他们对经济现状、未来走势以及采取相关措施的原因的看法。

Four times a year, Reserve Bank issues a detailed document about how they see the economy, how they see it going, the reasons why they've done what they have.

每次宣布利率决策时都会发布一份声明，一年共八次，而会议纪要则会在几周后公布。

A statement is put out at the time they announce every interest rate decision, so eight times a year, and a couple of weeks later the minutes of the meeting are released.

因此，如今的透明度已经非常高了。

So there is a lot of transparency now.

本周我读了一篇《金融评论》的文章，有人抱怨信息太多、太混乱，甚至可能自相矛盾，所以无论如何都难以应对。

I read an article in the Financial Review this week where someone was complaining that there's too much information and it's too confusing and it might be contradictory, so you can't win.

澳大利亚储备银行向更高透明度的转变，遵循了2023年一项独立审查的建议，该审查还建议将储备银行董事会拆分为两个部分，以符合英国和加拿大类似的制度。

The move toward a more transparent Reserve Bank of Australia followed recommendations made by an independent review in 2023, and that review also recommended that the board of the Reserve Bank be broken in two, in line with similar systems operating in The UK and Canada.

莫纳什大学的艾萨克·格罗斯博士。

Doctor Isaac Gross from Monash University.

嗯，

Well, the

以前董事会实际上在同时做两件事。

board was effectively doing two jobs previously.

一方面，它在制定货币政策，决定利率升降；另一方面，它也履行着任何组织董事会的传统职责，确保机构管理良好、不承担过大风险，并确保管理团队表现良好。

On one hand, it was setting monetary policy, their interest rates go up or down, and it was also fulfilling the traditional role of a board in any organization, trying to make sure it's well managed, that it's not taking too large a risk, and that the executive team are doing a good job.

但这两项任务所需的能力根本不同。

And these two tasks have fundamentally different skills.

理想情况下，货币政策应由一群熟悉澳大利亚劳动力市场、金融市场和宏观经济的专家来制定。

Ideally, you want monetary policy set by a bunch of experts in Australian labor markets, Australian financial markets, and macro economy.

而公司董事会这一部分，则显然需要一群懂得如何运营组织、如何分配风险、并确保人力资源事务妥善处理的人。

Whereas the corporate board side of things, well, obviously, you want a group of people who know how to run an organisation and know how to delegate risk and make sure that the HR side of things is being handled well.

所以

So

你之前让同一群人做两种不同的工作。

you had two different jobs that were being done by the same group of people.

审查发现，让同一群人做两种截然不同的工作，最终导致了不良后果。

What the review discovered was that getting the same group of people to do two very different jobs was ultimately leading to poor outcomes.

一些主要因企业治理专长被任命的人被要求负责货币政策，这导致他们在制定货币政策时时有失误，也没有对储备银行行长制定货币政策的行为进行有效监督。

You had people who were primarily appointed for their expertise in corporate management being asked to run monetary policy, and that meant that they, from time to time, made mistakes when setting monetary policy and weren't holding the RBA governor to account in setting that monetary policy.

因此，审查决定将这两项工作拆分为两个独立的董事会：一组企业专家负责银行的组织运营，另一组货币政策专家与行长共同制定货币政策。

So the review decided to split these two jobs into two separate boards, a group of corporate experts to run the bank as an organisation, and a group of monetary policy experts to help set monetary policy in conjunction with the Governor.

政府现在已经落实了这一建议，设立了这两个董事会。

And the Government's now followed through with that and instituted those two boards.

现在判断这是否会显著改变储备银行的运作方式，是不是还为时过早？

Is it too early to tell whether that will make any kind of significant difference to the way the Reserve Bank operates?

说实话，这还只有一年时间，我认为我们还需要更多数据，才能明确断言它是否成功。

Look, it's still only been a year, so I think we'd still want to see a bit more data before we could definitively declare it a success or not.

但我认为早期迹象表明，这一举措运行良好。

But I think the early signs are that it is working well.

我们已经看到行长与澳大利亚储备银行外部的媒体和专家之间的互动明显增多，他们发布的声明也更加详尽。

We're already seeing much more interaction between the governor and the press and experts outside of the Reserve Bank of Australia and a lot more detail in the statements they put out.

所以，你知道，澳大利亚储备银行每季度做出一次决策时，会发布一份所谓的货币政策声明，而如今这些声明中的细节比以往任何时候都多，详细说明了预测、储备银行的思考、所作的假设，以及如果这些假设出错会怎样。

So, you know, the RBA, when it makes a decision once a quarter, it publishes what's known as a statement on monetary policy, and there's a lot more detail in those statements today than there ever was previously, detailing the forecasts, what the RBA is thinking, the assumptions they're making, what happens if those assumptions are wrong.

因此，我想我们可以在五年后回望，看看这些变化是否取得了完全的成功，但就目前来看，迹象是积极的。

So I guess, you know, we could look back in five years' time to see if the changes have been a a complete success, but I'd say so far the signs are looking good.

您现在收听的是《回顾往事》，澳大利亚广播公司国家节目。

And you're listening to Rear Vision, an ABC Radio national production.

我是安东尼·法内尔。

I'm Anthony Fanell.

今天，我们探讨的是中央银行独立性的由来，即储备银行在不受政治干预或压力的情况下自主决定利率变动的能力。

Today, the conditions that led to the practice of central bank independence, the ability of reserve banks to make decisions on interest rate movements unhindered by political obstruction or pressure.

至少，这是理论上的说法。

At least that's the theory.

说到政治压力，我们现在来谈谈美国目前的状况。

And speaking of political pressure, let's now return to the current situation in The United States.

尽管美联储如此，抵押贷款利率却下降了。

Mortgage rates are down despite the Fed.

我的意思是，斯科特，你得好好管管这家伙。

I mean, Scott, you gotta work on this guy.

他真的有些心理问题。

He's got some real mental problems.

他身上有些不对劲。

And there's something wrong with him.

老实说，亲爱的，我真想把他炒了。

It's just sweetheart, I I be honest, I'd love to fire his ass.

他本该表现得不错。

He should be fine.

这人能力严重不足。

Guy's grossly incompetent.

现在我不必告诉你这个人是谁，但我还是要告诉你，他攻击的目标是杰罗姆·鲍威尔——即将卸任的美联储主席，美国的中央银行行长。

Now I don't need to tell you who that was, but I will tell you the target of his invective, Jerome Powell, the outgoing chair of the Federal Reserve, America's central bank.

他的任期将在五月结束，因此他在这份职位上只剩下几个月了，但这并没有阻止唐纳德·特朗普一再公开羞辱鲍威尔先生，称他无能，正如你刚才听到的，还暗示这位广受尊敬的美联储主席涉及腐败行为。

His term expires in May, so he only has a couple more months left in the job, but that hasn't stopped Donald Trump from repeatedly trying to publicly humiliate Mr Powell, declaring him incompetent, as you heard, and insinuating that the widely regarded Federal Reserve chair had been involved in corruption.

今年一月，美国司法部宣布已对鲍威尔先生的行为展开刑事调查。

Then in January, the US Justice Department announced that they had opened a criminal inquiry into mister Powell's behavior.

这是杰罗姆·鲍威尔的回应。

This was Jerome Powell's response.

我深深尊重法治和我们民主制度中的问责机制。

I have deep respect for the rule of law and for accountability in our democracy.

没有人，尤其是美联储主席，能凌驾于法律之上。

No one, certainly not the chair of the Federal Reserve, is above the law.

但这一前所未有的举动，应当放在政府持续施压和威胁的大背景下来看待。

But this unprecedented action should be seen in the broader context of the administration's threats and ongoing pressure.

刑事指控的威胁，源于美联储根据我们对公众利益的最佳判断来设定利率，而非迎合总统的偏好。

The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public rather than following the preferences of the president.

这关乎美联储是否能继续根据证据和经济状况设定利率，还是货币政策将被政治压力或恐吓所左右。

This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.

现在，鲍威尔的回应立即得到了三位前美联储主席的支持，其中一位是珍妮特·耶伦，她将针对鲍威尔的刑事调查称为‘极其令人寒心’。

Now mister Powell was immediately supported in his pushback by three former chairs of the Federal Reserve, with one of them, Janet Yellen, describing the criminal investigation against Powell as, quote, extremely chilling.

随后不久，全球十一位资深央行行长联合发布了以下声明。

And shortly afterward, 11 of the world's senior central bankers issued the following joint statement.

我们全力支持美联储及其主席杰罗姆·H·鲍威尔。

We stand in full solidarity with the Federal Reserve System and its chair Jerome H Powell.

央行的独立性是我们所服务的公民实现价格、金融和经济稳定的根本基石。

The independence of central banks is a cornerstone of price, financial and economic stability in the interests of the citizens that we serve.

因此，必须在充分尊重法治和民主问责的前提下，维护这种独立性。

It is therefore critical to preserve that independence with full respect for the rule of law and democratic accountability.

这可能是前所未有的支持表态，你或许可以想象。

An unprecedented show of support, you might imagine.

但在华盛顿，人们如何看待这一事件呢？

But how was it seen in Washington?

又是克里斯蒂娜·博代亚。

Cristina Bodea again.

所以我不确定。

So I don't know.

我的意思是，美国现在根本不想听外部任何人的意见。

I mean, The United States is not in a very in a mood to listen to anyone else from the outside.

你知道，在共和党那边，有一些声音说，这些外国人在评论美国的内部法律事务，这完全不合适。

You know, on the Republican side, there were voices that said, well, this is completely inappropriate to have commentary on internal legal matters from all these foreigners.

但我认为这种支持仍然很重要，因为特朗普总统唯一在意的就是市场反应。

But I think that support was still important because if there is one thing that president Trump pays attention to is sort of market reaction.

而全世界对杰罗姆·鲍威尔的大力声援，恰恰传递了一个信号，表明美国国债投资者可能怎么看。

And the fact that there was a huge endorsement from all over the world of Jerome Powell is sort of a signal as to what perhaps investors in US treasuries think.

对吧？

Right?

从这个角度看，这种声音依然很重要。

And in that way, that voice is still important.

所以，尽管正如我之前所说，全球普遍认为独立的中央银行是最佳选择，并且能带来更好的经济成果，但在美国，我们有一位总统却认为自己比美联储主席更懂行，他甚至称对方是蠢货，认为对方完全搞错了。

So even though, as I was saying earlier, there's a sort of general consensus around the world that independent central banks are the way to go and that they lead to better economic outcomes, in The US, we have a president who thinks he knows better than the head of the Federal Reserve, and he's called him a moron and so on, and thinks that he's getting things completely wrong.

讽刺的是，杰罗姆·鲍威尔实际上是由唐纳德·特朗普在总统第一任期内任命的，但他从未向我们解释过，为什么他会任命一个‘蠢货’来领导中央银行。

Ironically, Jerome Powell was actually appointed by Donald Trump during his first term as president, so he hasn't explained to us why he appointed a moron to head the central bank.

但无论如何，他希望降低利率，而且不只是降四分之一个百分点，他希望利率下调大约1%。

But anyway, he wants to lower interest rates, and he wants not just a quarter of a percent, but he wants interest rates down about 1%.

而这种利率水平通常只会在严重衰退期间出现，比如新冠疫情或全球金融危机时期。

Now, that's the sort of level that interest rates will generally only reach in the middle of a severe recession, so something like COVID or the global financial crisis.

几乎每一位经济学家都会认为，如果现在就把利率降到1%，那将导致美国出现极高的通货膨胀。

And almost every economist would think if you lowered interest rates to 1% now, it'd be a recipe for very high inflation in The US.

但特朗普总统对中央银行的独立性感到沮丧，也对它们没有按他的意愿行事感到不满。

But President Trump is sort of frustrated by the independence of the central bank, and frustrated that they're not doing what he wants.

听我说，我觉得这真的令人担忧。

Look, I think it's really concerning.

唐纳德·特朗普总统曾试图以一些站不住脚的理由解雇一位美联储理事。

President Donald Trump has tried to fire one member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors on somewhat flimsy grounds.

他的司法部已经对美联储主席展开了调查，我认为，如果所有这些施压美联储的尝试都成功了，那将令人深感担忧。

His justice department has opened investigations into the chairman, and I I think that would be deeply concerning if all these attempts to pressure the Federal Reserve worked.

我们已经看到，在过去，当总统试图施压美联储时，尤其是在七十年代，发生了什么。

We've seen what's happened in the past when presidents try and pressure the Federal Reserve back in the seventies.

理查德·尼克松当时就曾试图对美联储施加压力。

Richard Nixon tried to do this to the Federal Reserve back then.

这导致通货膨胀水平远高于原本应有的水平。

It resulted in much higher levels of inflation than would have otherwise been the case.

因此，特朗普正在玩一场非常危险的游戏。

So it's certainly a risky business that Trump is playing.

希望美联储和其他美国体制力量能够顶住这些施压行为。

Hopefully, the Federal Reserve and other parts of The US polity can stand up to those attempts to pressure them.

但我认为，这些措施是否有效还有待观察。

But I guess it remains to be saying whether that'll be effective.

因为如果美国的情况恶化，可能会对澳大利亚等其他经济体产生连锁影响，对吧？

Because there are, or possibly are, flow on effects for other economies like the Australian economy, aren't they, if the American situation changes for the worse?

没错。

That's right.

我认为

I think

当美国经济感冒或打喷嚏时，抱歉，其他国家都会跟着感冒。

when The US economy catches a cold or sneezes, sorry everybody else catches a cold.

我认为，如果美国的通胀进一步失控，他们不得不加息以控制局势，甚至引发衰退，这肯定会严重影响澳大利亚经济。

And I think if inflation were to sort more out of control in The United States and they had to hike interest rates, try and get it back down under control, maybe even cause the recession, that would definitely affect the Australian economy here.

所以，说实话，我们坐在太平洋这一边对此也无能为力，但如果情况恶化，我们肯定会受到冲击。

So look, to be honest, there's not much we can do about it sitting on this side of the Pacific Ocean, but it would certainly affect us if things turn pear shaped.

如前所述，杰罗姆·鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于五月结束，唐纳德·特朗普已经提名了他希望接替鲍威尔的人选。

As previously mentioned, Jerome Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair ends in May, and Donald Trump has already nominated the person he wants to take Powell's place.

他的名字是凯文·沃尔什。

His name is Kevin Walsh.

他是一位经济学家，所以至少这一点还不错，而且他曾经在美联储工作过。

He's an economist, so at least that's something, and he did once work for the Federal Reserve.

那是2011年2月之间的事。

That was between 02/2011.

关于他，我们还知道些什么？

What else do we know about him?

我认为，在特朗普总统考虑的四位主要候选人中，他可能是相对更稳妥、更符合建制派的选择。

I think out of the sort of four main contenders that President Trump was considering, he's probably one of the the safer, more establishment picks.

从这个角度看，他选择了一位在美联储拥有丰富经验、长期参与政策制定的人，这算是相对积极的信号。

I guess from that point of view, that's a a relatively positive thing, that he's chosen someone with considerable experience at the Federal Reserve and someone who's got a long track record of policy making.

所以他不是那种完全的冒险家，如果他被任命为美联储主席，这或许会对他有利。

So it's not a complete cowboy, and hopefully that will serve him in good stead should he be appointed to the chairman of the Federal Reserve.

另一方面，他在做出政策决策方面的记录有些参差不齐。

On the other hand, he has had a somewhat patchy record of getting policy decisions right.

如果你回顾他在全球金融危机期间担任美联储工作人员时所发表的一些言论，当时并不总是正确的。

If you look back to some of the statements that he made during the global financial crisis when he was working at the Federal Reserve, wasn't always right.

他在是否属于通胀鹰派的问题上态度反复无常——他过去是鹰派，但现在却主张更鸽派的立场，而这自然与特朗普总统的偏好一致。

And he's flip flopped a bit on whether he's a bit of a hawk on inflation, which he used to be, and now he's advocating a more dovish line, which, of course, aligns with what's president Trump's preferences are.

所以，你看，他的履历很不错。

So, look, he's got a good CV.

他可能是特朗普考虑的几个更好人选之一，但他上任后能否维护美联储的独立性并做出正确的政策决策，还是会屈从于特朗普对低利率的偏好，还有待观察。

He was probably one of the better alternatives that, Trump was considering, Whether he'll stand up the Federal Reserve independence and make the right policy decisions once he's in office or sort of bow to Trump's preferences for low interest rates remains to be seen.

所以我想，这只能拭目以待。

So I guess it's bit of a wait and see.

我知道他最近，事实上去年，曾谈到美联储规模过大，认为随着时间推移，它承担了过多职责，需要精简。

I know that he has talked about, just in the recent past, in fact last year, about the Fed being too large, that over time it's taken on too many responsibilities and needs to be tightened.

这种观点或意见是否被广泛认同？

Is that a view or an opinion that is widely shared?

我不确定是否被广泛认同，但我认为这确实是一个合理的观点。

I don't know if it's widely shared, but I think it's certainly a legitimate point of view.

在美国政府中普遍存在一种模式：每当危机来临或问题出现时，由于美联储是美国联邦政府中最能干的部门——或许仅次于美军——它通常在危机后获得比之前更多的权力或影响力。

There tends to be a patent in the US government where a crisis comes along or a problem pops up, and because the Federal Reserve's the most competent part of the US Federal Government, maybe accepting the US military, it usually ends up with more power or more influence after the crisis than it did before.

因此，如果你将今天的美联储与多年前的美联储相比，它的影响力确实更大了，尤其是在银行和金融监管领域，以及作为其传统职责的货币政策领域。

And so if you compare the Federal Reserve today to the Federal Reserve of years gone by, it's certainly got more influence, particularly in the areas of banking and finance regulation as well as country policy, which is its traditional domain.

所以我觉得这是一个合理的观点。

So I think it's it's a legitimate argument.

我认为美联储之所以不断扩张，部分原因在于它非常有能力、人才济济，通常由华盛顿特区最优秀的政策制定者组成。

I think part of the reason the Federal Reserve has grown so much is that it's, you know, very capable, very talented, usually staffed by some of the the best policymakers in Washington, DC.

但希望美联储回归其本职，专注于货币政策，而将其他一些政策领域留给其他机构，这也不是没有道理的。

But it's not unreasonable to sort of want the Federal Reserve to sort of return to its needing and focus on monetary policy and perhaps leave some of those other policy areas to other institutions.

因此，凯文·沃尔什是美国总统推荐的美联储主席人选，也就是美国中央银行的负责人。

So Kevin Walsh is The US President's preferred choice for the chairmanship of the Fed, the US Central Bank.

但这并不意味着他稳操胜券。

But that doesn't mean he's a shoo in.

仍然还有一个确认程序要走。

There is a confirmation process still to be had.

即使他最终获得提名，还有一个最终的保障机制，用以维护美国联邦储备系统的独立性。

And even if he does eventually get the nod, there is one final check-in place that's there to protect the independence of the US Federal Reserve.

因此，金融市场没有出现强烈反应的一个原因是，美国利率并非仅由主席一人决定。

So one reason why there's not been a large reaction in financial markets is that US interest rates aren't just set by the chair.

利率是由所谓的联邦公开市场委员会决定的，该委员会由12名成员组成，目前只有三人是由特朗普任命的。

It's set by what's called the Federal Overmarket Committee, which is a group of 12 members, only three of them appointed by Trump so far.

人们认为，如果主席希望将利率降至1%，他们可能会否决这一决定。

It's thought that they might overrule a chair who wanted to lower interest rates to 1%.

但如果真的发生这种情况，我确信特朗普会试图撤换其他一些理事，直到他获得多数支持，但这种情况可能不会发生。

If that happened though, I'm sure Trump will try to get rid of some of the other governors until he gets a majority his way, but that might not happen.

另一个可能阻碍特朗普计划的因素是，这项任命必须经过参议院批准，一些共和党参议员可能会挺直腰板，决定不任命他们认为会成为特朗普傀儡的人选。

The other thing which could stymie Trump's plans is that the appointment has to be ratified by the Senate, and some Republican senators may grow up spine and decide not to appoint somebody who they think will act as Trump's puppet.

来自堪培拉大学的约翰·霍金斯。

John Hawkins from the University of Canberra.

今天我们还听到了密歇根州立大学的克里斯蒂娜·博黛亚和莫纳什大学的艾萨克·格罗斯的发言。

We also heard today from Cristina Bodea at Michigan State University and Isaac Gross from Monash.

如果你对银行业务感兴趣，不妨听听我的同事大卫·马尔在《深夜直播》节目中与传记作家理查德·瓦格的对话。

Now, if you're interested in matters banking, check out a recent chat my colleague, David Marr, from Late Night Live had with biographer Richard Vague.

这场对话完全围绕18世纪的美国银行家托马斯·威尔宁展开。

It's all about the eighteenth century American banker, Thomas Willing.

没听说过他？

Never heard of him?

这就是为什么你应该听一听。

Well, that's why you should have a listen.

你可以在我们的网页上找到链接，或者直接前往ABC Listen。

You'll find a link on our web page or simply go to ABC Listen.

《修订》是ABC国家广播电台的制作。

Revision is an ABC Radio National production.

我是安东尼·费内尔。

I'm Anthony Fennell.

我们下期再见。

Until next time.

再见。

Cheers.

您刚刚收听的是ABC播客。

You've been listening to an ABC podcast.

在ABC Listen应用上发现更多优质的ABC播客、直播广播和独家内容。

Discover more great ABC podcasts, live radio, and exclusives on the ABC Listen app.