China's surprise

今天，中国在战火纷飞的第一季度实现了5%的经济增长，超出预期。

Today, China's economy beats forecasts to grow 5% in a war torn first quarter.

此外，台湾台积电再次超出预期，而全球股市因伊朗和平进展创下新高。

Plus, Taiwan's TSMC clocks another beat as global stocks hit new records on Iran peace ups.

此外，特朗普总统重新与杰罗姆·鲍威尔发生争执，威胁称如果鲍威尔下个月不辞去美联储理事职位，就将解雇他。

And President Trump reopens his feud with Jerome Powell as he threatens to fire the Fed chief if he doesn't vacate his board seat next month.

这是路透社晨间市场简报，每周七天为您带来来自路透社新闻室的未经过滤的市场新闻与分析。

This is Reuters Morning Bid, bringing you unfiltered market news and analysis straight from the Reuters Newsroom seven days a week.

我是位于伦敦的迈克·多兰。

I'm Mike Dolan in London.

我是安娜·施曼斯基。

And I'm Anna Schemansky.

今天是4月16日，星期四。

It's Thursday, April 16.

好了，迈克，最近一段时间以来，我们第一次不以伊朗话题开启对话。

Well, Mike, for the first time in a while, we're actually not gonna start off the conversation with Iran.

相反，我们来谈谈中国。

Instead, we're gonna go to China.

所以在过去六周里，尽管所有人都关注中东，但中国实际上公布了不少积极的经济数据，而今天我们又得到了一个新的。

So while everyone's focus has been in The Mideast over the last six weeks, China has actually been putting out a decent number of, you know, positive economic data points, and we got another one today.

是的。

Yeah.

5%，这非常接近其目标，而且优于市场预期。

5%, which is very close to its target, but better than markets were forecasting.

这是第一季度的年度GDP增长率。

That's the the annual GDP growth rate in the first quarter.

当然，其中很大一部分是提前释放的。

Now an awful lot of that was front loaded, of course.

一月和二月，我认为对中国经济体来说是非常强劲的月份，这一点从贸易数据中可以看出。

And January and February, I think, were extremely strong months for for for the Chinese economy as we could see from the trade data.

但我们在贸易数据中也看到，三月——考虑到石油冲击和伊朗冲突，出口大幅下降，或者说至少放缓了，远超人们的预期。

But what we also have seen in the trade data, is that March, probably unsurprisingly, given the oil shock and the Iran conflict, exports dropped very sharply or or at least they slowed, much more than people had had expected.

从今天报告的某些细节中可以看出，本季度的最后一个月更加艰难。

And you could see in some of the details of today's report that the last month of the quarter was more difficult.

我们看到，三月的零售额确实低于预期。

We saw certainly retail sales came in below forecast for March.

房价在年度基础上仍在下跌。

Housing prices are still falling on an annual basis.

但有趣的是，三月的工业数据好于预期，因此三月并非全然黯淡。

We did interestingly get a better than forecast industry number for March, so it wasn't all gloom through March.

但总体而言，中国经济本季度表现非常强劲，这也解释了为什么股市和金融市场普遍希望尽快度过这场冲突，并祈祷局势能迅速缓和。

But overall, a very strong quarter for the Chinese economy and a mark as to why stocks and financial markets generally are eager to see through this conflict and crossing their fingers that it de escalates really quickly.

没错。

Exactly.

你提到了房价。

You mentioned the property prices.

尽管整体房价在下降，但如果你关注一些大城市，实际上已经看到部分城市的房价出现了月度上涨。

And while they are going down overall, if you're looking at some of the bigger cities, you've actually seen some month on month rises in some of the property prices.

可能有一些迹象表明情况正在触底。

There may be an indication that things are bottoming out.

我认为有趣的一点是，将中国当前的增长与房地产泡沫前相比，目前中国增长的动力似乎比过去更加可持续，比如电动汽车和清洁能源基础设施。

And one of the things I think is interesting if you look at China's growth today versus pre the property bubble is that it currently seems that China's growth is being driven by more sustainable things than it was in the past, like electric vehicles, the infrastructure for clean energy.

因此，即使我们仍对战争笼罩全局感到担忧，这些仍是许多积极的底层因素。

So these are a lot of positive underlying stories even as we continue to have the concern about war hanging over everything.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，如果因石油冲击导致显著放缓，中国可能首当其冲地面临石油供应问题，更不用说油价了，尽管在战争爆发前中国已拥有大量储备。

And I think if there is a significant slowdown that comes from the oil shock, and I think as we said over the recent weeks, China is potentially at the sharp end of those oil supplies, never mind the price, albeit with very large reserves already in place before the war had, had started.

但你知道，波斯湾地区原油供应的释放对中国而言是一项非常重要的进展，但如果情况恶化，中国仍拥有强大的刺激工具。

But, you know, that freeing up of of of of crude supplies from The Gulf is a very important, development for China, but it does have significant firepower still in terms of stimulus if if push comes to shove push comes to shove.

但更广泛地说，我认为全球需求正在发生变化。

But more broadly, I think there is a there is a picture of of world demand going on.

我们本周早些时候从国际货币基金组织看到了这一点。

And we we saw that from the IMF earlier in the week.

你知道，今年它略有下调，这也是预期之中的。

You know, it's downgraded this year a little bit, as you'd expect.

但总体来看，它到2027年的两年期前景，尤其是基本前景，并没有发生太大变化。

But broadly speaking, its two year outlook, its outlook right through 2027 hasn't changed a great deal, not its baseline outlook.

其中一部分显然与我们过去几年一直关注的事情有关，那就是全球范围内的技术基础设施建设。

And some of that is clearly located in what we've all been obsessing about for the past few years, which is the tech build out all around the world.

正如我今天一篇文章中所指出的，如果全球各地的竞争更加激烈，而这正是我们如今所处的世界格局，那么对技术的需求将大幅上升。

And I would argue, as I did in a piece today, that if you have a more fractious rivalries around the world that clearly is part of the world that we're looking at these days, then that tech demand goes up considerably.

中国自身就是一个很好的例子，它正在建设自己的技术生态系统。

And China in its own right is a good case in point where it's building out its own tech ecosystem.

这对提供技术设备的企业来说是好消息。

That's good news for people providing tech equipment.

今天，我们又从一家大型科技公司台积电那里听到了更多好消息。

And we today got more good news from a major tech company, TSMC.

是的。

Yes.

我的意思是，它的盈利增长58%，再次超过了市场预期，就像ASML昨天那样。

I mean, you know, its 58% earnings growth beat the Street again, much like ASML did yesterday.

不过，ASML的股价昨天对这一好于预期的表现反应并不积极，所以我们得观察一下，看看美国。

Here's the ASML's stock price didn't react so well to its beat yesterday, so we'll have to watch and see as The U.

美国。

S.

今天晚些时候，台积电在美股的股价将开盘。

Listed shares of TSMC open later today.

就其增长速度而言，这依然是一个强劲的季度。

On the pace of it, it's still another bumper quarter.

你看到的是，本季度的营收达到了400亿美元，比去年同期高出约30%。

You're looking at, you know, 40,000,000,000 of revenue in the current quarter, which is about 30% higher than it was this time last year.

这些数字依然非常庞大，而台积电正是全球芯片需求的核心。

These are still really big numbers and TSMC is absolutely at the epicenter of that chip demand around the world.

那么回到华盛顿，特朗普总统与杰伊·鲍威尔之间的争端似乎又卷土重来了。

So turning back to Washington, the feud between President Trump and Jay Powell seems to be back on.

是的

Yeah.

实际上，这一点的时机非常关键，因为我们即将迎来特朗普提名的接替鲍威尔担任主席的人选——凯文·沃什。

Well, actually, it's it's and the timing of it is very important because we get, Trump's nominee to replace Powell as chair, Kevin Warsh.

他下周将在国会接受质询，我们将首次看到他在提名听证会上受到严厉拷问。

He will be in front of Congress next week, and so we'll we'll we'll get his first big kinda grilling, on on his domination process.

但特朗普实际上重新点燃了与鲍威尔长期存在的矛盾，他表示，如果鲍威尔不辞职，他本人下个月将辞去主席职务，但他是否也会辞去董事会成员职务——而他理论上可以保留该职位直到2028年初——仍不确定。

But Trump has basically reopened this, row long running row with with Powell saying that, if Powell doesn't step down, he will step down as chair next month, but will he step down as a board member, which he, potentially can retain until, early twenty twenty eight.

因此，特朗普表示，过去六个月来一直酝酿的关于美联储资产负债表管理的争议依然存在，问题仍未解决。

And so the, Trump has said that the renovations route that's been brewing for the last, six months, this row over the Fed's, management of its renovations, there still is a a problem.

目前还有一桩司法部的案件，而他认为司法部没有任何理由终止此案。

There's a DOJ case there, and he doesn't see any reason for the DOJ to halt that case.

这造成了一个真正的难题，因为国会中有一些参议员，比如汤姆·蒂利斯，明确表示，除非此案被撤销，否则他不会确认凯文·沃什的提名。

Now this creates a a real problem because we have, senators in in, in Congress who, Tom Tillis, obviously, who says he will not confirm Kevin Warsh until that case is dropped.

特朗普昨晚表示，此案不会被撤销，鲍威尔应当辞职。

Trump said last night that case won't be dropped and that, Powell should step down.

而鲍威尔留任董事会成员的重要性，当然在于席位数量。

And the importance of Powell remaining as board member is, of course, numbers.

特朗普能安排多少名提名者进入董事会？他何时能获得董事会的多数席位？

How many seats can Trump get to put his nominees in, and, and when does he get that majority on the board?

这些看似是程序性细节，与战争和地缘政治的头条新闻相比显得微不足道，但对金融市场却至关重要。

So so these appear to be procedural and and detailed backgrounds compared to the the headlines of war and geopolitics, but but it does matter a lot for a financial market.

当然。

Certainly.

通常来说，确认央行行长的听证会并不是世界上最令人兴奋的事，但这次可能有所不同。

I mean, normally, the hearings to confirm the head of the central bank are not the most exciting things in the world, but that may not be the case this time around.

今天推荐阅读迈克的文章，探讨在战争与竞争的世界中，科技为何胜出。

For today's recommended read, check out Mike's column on why tech is winning in a world of war and rivalry.

链接在节目笔记中。

The link is in the show notes.

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