Wall Street bets the war is over

今天，全球市场继续走强，市场预期伊朗战争终于接近尾声。

Today, world markets continue to strengthen on hopes the Iran war is finally winding down.

还有美国。

And U.

银行。

S.

银行报告第一季度交易收入大幅增长。

Banks report bumper trading revenues for the first quarter.

此外，国会下周将对美联储主席提名人凯文·沃什进行质询，距离确认其任命仅剩一个月时间。

Plus, Congress gets to grill Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh next week, leaving just a month to confirm his appointment.

这里是路透社晨间市场简报，每周七天为您带来来自路透社新闻室的未经过滤的市场新闻与分析。

This is Reuters Morning Bid, bringing you unfiltered market news and analysis straight from the Reuters newsroom seven days a week.

我是位于伦敦的迈克·多兰。

I'm Mike Dolan in London.

我是安娜·施曼斯基。

And I'm Anna Schemansky.

今天是4月15日，星期三。

It's Wednesday, April 15.

好吧，迈克，在中东实地，紧张局势依然非常严峻。

Well, Mike, on the ground in The Middle East right now, tensions are still very high.

美国的封锁正在实施中。

The US blockade is in force.

我们得到一些迹象表明，德黑兰和华盛顿之间将展开对话，但双方仍存在巨大分歧。

We are getting some indication that there are gonna be discussions between Tehran and Washington, but there's still a massive gap between the two parties.

然而，如果你看看华尔街，甚至看看能源市场，人们几乎都默认战争已经结束了。

Yet if you look at Wall Street and even if you look at energy markets, it almost assumes that people just think the war is over.

确实有这种感觉。

It it feels like that.

当然，股市、甚至货币市场可能还有一定距离，但石油市场本身或许还有调整空间，债券市场也可能如此。

Certainly, equity markets, even currency markets, maybe there's some distance to go with with the the oil market itself and and perhaps, in bonds.

但不过，是的，来自华盛顿乃至伊朗方面的风声——我们能大致了解他们的想法——似乎预示着更多对话即将展开，甚至可能在接下来的48小时内就开始。

But but, yeah, the mood music from Washington and even from even from the Iranian side, such as we can kinda get a clear picture of what they're thinking, it it does appear that there's more talks on the way, possibly as soon as the next, in the next forty eight hours even.

特朗普政府的所有人都表示，这标志着结束的开始。

All of the Trump administration are indicating this is the beginning of the end.

他们以前也这么说过，但目前我们仍处于的两周停火期似乎不会在没有进一步谈判的情况下到期，以延长停火。

Now they've said that before, but but it does appear that the two week ceasefire that we're still in, is not going to expire without some further talks, to to extend it.

我认为，自从六周前战争爆发以来，市场一直在等待一个可以开始关注其他事情的时刻。

And I think since the war began, six weeks ago, markets have waited for the moment at which they can start to focus on other things.

我认为，这其实就这么简单直接。

I think that's really as it's as prosaic as that.

与此同时造成了多大损害，我们只能随着时间推移来评估。

And how much damage is done in the meantime, we'll have to assess as time goes on.

但看起来，标普500指数又开始接近历史高点。

But it does appear that with S and P 500, it's back flirting with record highs.

在经历了过去一个半月之后，这真是令人震惊的表态，但确实令人震惊。

It's an extraordinary statement after what we've seen in the last month and a half, but it is extraordinary.

我们开始听到一些分析人士在思考已经造成了多大损害。

And we are starting to get some bodies thinking about how much damage has been done.

我们显然收到了国际货币基金组织关于未来几年前景的报告。

We obviously got the IMF report about looking forward for the next few years.

尽管他们确实下调了增长预期，并预计油价会略高一些，但这些调整的幅度远没有人们可能预期的那么显著，毕竟我们正经历着 arguably 能源史上最大的供应中断。

And while they certainly did downgrade growth and they also expect oil prices to be a bit higher, the most were not nearly as remarkable as one might think given the fact that we are seeing the largest supply disruption arguably in the history of energy markets.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，国际货币基金组织预测中最引人注目的数据是，他们对2027年全球增长的预测与今年一月的预测保持不变。

I mean, the most remarkable stat, I think, from the IMF forecast was that their growth forecast, world growth forecast for 2027 is unchanged from what they thought in January.

明白了。

Okay.

由于他们下调了2026年的预测，因此2027年的基数会更低。

It'll be from a lower base because they downgraded 2026.

但他们在基本情景下——至少是最基础的假设中——认为2027年的增长水平将与今年一月甚至更早的去年十月的预测持平，这说明了所有这些大型预测模型的工作方式。

But the the idea that they see as their base case, least, their their basic scenario, that we get the same level of growth in 2027 as we as they thought in January and even as far back as October tells you something about how all these big forecasting models work.

当然，这些模型在交易大厅和投资机构中的运作方式也相差无几。

And, of course, those models are are not that different in in the trading halls and the investment houses in in the marketplace.

因此，人们往往会倾向于忽略这些噪音，正如有些人所称的那样，等待专注于科技和巨额收益等事情。

So the tendency or the inevitable temptation is just to see through this noise, as some people would call it, and wait to be able to focus on things like tech and big earnings.

正如我们在过去几周多次提到的，整个年度的实际综合收益增长在这六周内实际上有所上升。

As we've said many times over the last couple of weeks, the actual aggregate earnings growth for the full year has actually increased over that six week period.

这不仅仅是能源公司的表现，科技公司也是如此。

And it's not just for the energy companies, it's for tech as well.

显然，我们已经开始收到大型银行的收益报告。

And obviously, we are starting to get some earnings roll in from the big banks.

而截至目前，这或许并不令人意外，它们的表现相当不错，主要是因为市场的大幅波动带来了大量的交易收入。

And as of right now, which maybe isn't overly surprising, they've been rather good mainly because all of the volatility in markets is generating a lot of trading revenue.

是的，完全正确。

Yeah, absolutely.

我的意思是，交易收入虽然未必创下历史新高，但至少对花旗来说，肯定是十年来的最高水平，其他银行也是如此。

I mean, the the the trading revenues are, know, if not at record, I think their their their records for for for Citi are certainly ten year highs, for for the others.

它们也提醒说，这是一个非常波动的季度。

They're cautioning to say, this is a very volatile quarter.

不要期望这种情况会持续下去。

Don't expect this to repeat through time.

但如果你还记得的话，周一高盛表示其固定收益和货币交易表现令人失望，这让我们稍微担心了一下。

But we did get a little bit of a worry on Monday, if you remember, when Goldman said that their fixed income, and currency trading kinda disappointed.

但其他银行似乎在这一部门以及股票部门表现都很不错，看来情况并没有被复制。

It doesn't appear that was, that was replicated by the others who seem to have done quite well in that division as well as the equities divisions.

因此，这为正在展开的财报季定下了基调。

And so, yeah, the the the the the that sets the tone for an earning season that's unfolding.

甚至在今天欧洲，当你撇开银行和能源公司，回头看看科技板块，像ASML这样的关键欧洲芯片股——人人都关注的股票——再次超出了一季度的预期。

And even in Europe today, when you get away from the banks and you get away from the energy companies, you look back at tech, the ASML, one of the one of the key European chip stocks that everyone watches, again, beat forecasts for the full first quarter.

所以，这个故事依然在背景中持续着。

So, that story is still there in the background.

尽管股价对此反应不大，但这一点凸显了它的意义。

Now, share price hasn't done very much in reaction to it, but, you know, it underlines that.

美国银行每月进行的投资基金调查——我们密切关注的指标——显示，投资者确实有一定程度的风险规避，但并未达到极端水平。

And the, monthly, investment fund survey that Bank of America does, one we watch very closely, shows that the the there has been some retreat from risk, but not an extreme level.

而且，它声称全球最拥挤的两个交易是长期持有石油，正如你所预期的，以及长期持有科技股。

And, it claims that the two most crowded trades on the planet are, long oil, as you might expect, and long tech.

说到那些仍在背景中持续的故事，我们仍然面临美联储即将任命新主席的情况，几乎可以肯定会在下个月完成。

And speaking of stories that are still in the background, we still have a Federal Reserve who's going to be getting a new chair, almost certainly in in the next month.

我们得到消息，现任提名人凯文·沃什将于4月21日，也就是下周，前往参议院接受听证，这几乎没有留下足够时间让他在鲍威尔主席预计卸任前完成确认并接任。

And we got news that Kevin Warsh, is the current nominee, is going to go in front of the Senate on the April 21, so next week, which is really not going to give much time for him to be confirmed and then to take over when Chair Powell is expected to step down.

是的。

Yeah.

这确实让倒计时开始了。

It does of set that clock ticking.

当然，围绕这一过程还有一大堆程序性问题重新浮出水面。

And, of course, there's a whole heap of procedural issues around that that now come back into focus.

正如你所记得的，共和党参议员汤姆·图尔斯表示，他不会支持确认提名，除非针对美联储的这一装修争议案件被撤销。

As you will remember, as Republican senator Tom Toews said, he will not back the confirmation, until the case against the Fed over this renovations issue is is removed.

因此，我们现在必须等待司法部结束该案，目前的迹象表明该案将会了结，然后确认程序或许才能通过。

So so we now have to wait for the Department of Justice to to wind that case down, the kind of indications are that it will, and then perhaps the confirmation goes through.

但更重要的是，我认为当沃什在国会接受质询时，亲自阐述他的计划和政策将非常引人注目，尤其是在当前的环境下——就在几周前，市场还在押注美联储可能不得不加息。

But but more than anything else, I think it'll be fascinating to hear directly from Warsh, when he's grilled by Congress about his plans, policy plans, not least in the environment that we're in, where only a couple of weeks ago, markets were betting that the Fed may actually have to raise interest rates.

那么，他该如何传达这一信息，以及随之而来的不确定性呢？

So, how does he deliver that message and the uncertainty that goes with

是的。

Yeah.

这确实不是一个令人羡慕的处境。

Certainly not an enviable position.

今天推荐的阅读文章是迈克关于为何市场认为伊朗战争已经结束的专栏。

For today's recommended read, check out Mike's column on why markets are betting the Iran war is over.

链接在节目笔记中。

The link is in the show notes.

如需了解今天更多新闻，请访问reuters.com或使用路透社应用程序。

And for more of any of today's stories, head to reuters.com or the Reuters app.

请在您喜爱的播客平台关注我们，或者如果您使用智能音箱，只需要求获取路透社每日七天的最新市场资讯。

Follow us on your favorite podcast player, or if you're on smart speaker, just ask for the latest market news from Reuters seven days a week.

我们明天再回来。

We'll be back tomorrow.