重温保罗·图多·琼斯的“大货币通胀”理论

保罗，你有没有注意到这一点？我现在在考虑科技股，因为过去两个月我们看到的，就是整个趋势在向虚拟化靠拢。

Paul, do you do you see this, though, in relation I'm thinking about tech stocks now because one of the things we have seen even the over the past two months is just the move towards virtual.

任何能在线上完成的事情都取得了巨大成功，不管是Zoom，还是硅谷那些大科技公司，因为我们现在都能远程操作。

Anything that can be done virtually has had great success, whether it be Zoom or any of the big tech companies in the valley because we're all able to do that virtually.

你是怎么看比特币的？

Is that the way you see Bitcoin?

另外，你持有黄金吗？

And and separately, do you own gold?

我本来也想顺带问一下。

I was gonna ask at the same time.

我也有黄金资产。

I have assets in gold also.

我觉得黄金还有很大的上涨空间。

I think gold can go substantially higher.

没错，世界的数字化进程显然对比特币有利。

And, yes, the digitization of the world clearly benefits Bitcoin.

我的意思是，如果我们没看到像Venmo这样的支付方式普及开来，根本就不会有人讨论比特币。

I mean, what we wouldn't even be talking about bit Bitcoin if we weren't if we weren't seeing, first cousins like Venmo in a variety of other ways.

我孩子根本就不带现金。

My children don't even carry cash.

他们连现金长什么样都快不知道了。

They don't even they barely even know what cash is.

很明显，全球经济正在加速数字化。

So we're clearly digitizing the global economies.

你已经看到有些国家明确在推动这件事，比如印度。

You've seen some countries do it explicitly like India.

还有像中国这样的国家，也正在朝这个方向走。

You're seeing other countries on the way to do it like China.

随着世界越来越数字化，比特币作为价值储存工具，也会被越来越多的人接受。

So we're getting in an increasingly digitized world, and Bitcoin will be that much more accessible by that universe of people that could, own it as a store of value.

回顾每一次牛市，都有一个共同点：持有它的人群在不断扩大。

When you think about every bull market, every single bull market has one common thread, an ever expanding universe of people who own it.

所以目前估计有五千五百万到七千万人持有比特币。

So there's probably the estimates are between fifty five and seventy million people own Bitcoin.

如果你在买比特币，那你就是在赌这个数字会涨到一亿两千万，甚至两亿。

We really if you're buying Bitcoin, your bet is that number is gonna go to a 120,000,000 or to 200,000,000.

当你看到这个世界正越来越数字化，很难不觉得目前的证据几乎都指向这个方向。

And it's kinda hard when you look around and you see that the world's becoming increasingly digitized, not to think that the preponderance evidence at this point in time doesn't point in that direction.

欢迎回到《深度解析》，我是NLW。

Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.

这是一档每日播出的播客，聚焦宏观经济、比特币，以及正在重塑我们世界的重大权力变迁。

It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.

《深度解析》由nexo.io赞助，由CoinDesk制作与发行。

The breakdown is sponsored by nexo.io and produced and distributed by CoinDesk.

大家最近怎么样？

What's going on, guys?

今天是五月三十一号，星期一。

It is Monday, May 31.

节日快乐，纪念日快乐。

Happy Memorial Day.

经常听这个节目的朋友，应该都听过我多次提到去年五月的一篇重要论文。

Regular listeners of the show will have often heard me make mention of a specific seminal paper from last May.

作者是保罗·都铎·琼斯和他的团队，文章叫《大货币通胀》。

It was by Paul Tudor Jones and his team called The Great Monetary Inflation.

在这篇文章里，PTJ公开了自己和他基金对比特币的认同，而且以一种非常有影响力的方式，为接下来几个月定下了基调——当时各类机构都在努力理解全球央行行动加剧意味着什么。

In it, PTJ revealed himself and his fund to be Bitcoiners, and did so in a way that set a narrative frame for the months to come as institutions of all types tried to wrap their heads around the implications of a global uptick in central bank action.

转眼就过去一年了。

It is now a year later.

经济正在复苏。

The economy is rebounding.

过去几个月，我们一直密切关注通胀上升的趋势，琢磨这对美联储政策会有什么影响。

We spent the last few months watching with concern a rising inflation, wondering what the implications for Fed policy will be.

我依然相信，当未来人们书写这段比特币牛市的历史时，《大货币通胀》这一观点会被视为关键的催化剂和转折点之一。

I continue to believe that when the history of this Bitcoin bull market is written, the Great Monetary Inflation thesis will be seen as one of the primary catalysts and turning point moments.

所以趁着这个特别的阵亡将士纪念日特辑，我们回头看看我当初对这篇论文的解读，看看现在还有多少站得住脚。

So now for this special holiday Memorial Day episode, let's go back to my first breakdown of that paper and see how much holds up.

上周在某种程度上是由保罗·都铎·琼斯主导的，这位著名的对冲基金经理谈到了他的比特币观点。

Last week was defined in some ways by Paul Tudor Jones, the famous hedge funder, talking about his Bitcoin thesis.

你在这集开头听到的那段采访，就是他今天早上在CNN上进一步谈论这个话题的内容。

And what you heard in the clip at the beginning of this episode was him on CNN this morning talking a little bit more about it.

但我觉得推特有个大问题：它根本没法帮你理解新闻背后的来龙去脉。

But I think that one thing that Twitter does poorly is actually help you understand the story behind the headline.

它擅长抓 headlines，却完全讲不清故事。保罗·都铎·琼斯涉足比特币，绝不是一时兴起，更不是一句推文就能说清楚的事。

It's good at the headlines, it's bad at the stories, and Paul Tudor Jones getting involved in Bitcoin is not just a whim, and it's certainly not reducible to a quick Twitter sound bite.

上周他给投资者发的那封信终于公布了，解释了为什么他决定让旗下220亿美元的基金，考虑把少量资金配置到比特币上。

Now the investment letter that he released last week to his investors to help them understand why he was authorizing his $22,000,000,000 fund to potentially allocate low single digits into Bitcoin came out.

所以我们终于看到了这封信的全文。

So we got to see the entire letter.

今天这期节目，我就带你们细读这封信，搞清楚他为什么做出这个决定——不仅是从宏观环境的角度，也包括比特币作为资产本身究竟有什么独特之处，又面临哪些挑战。

So what I wanna do for today's episode is actually bring you into that letter, help you understand the motivation, help you understand how he came to this conclusion, both in terms of the larger environment that mandates it, and specifically what is interesting or what is challenging about Bitcoin itself as an asset.

所以，我们基本上是在拆解保罗·都铎·琼斯关于比特币的完整论点。

So we're basically breaking down the Paul Tudor Jones complete case for Bitcoin.

好的。

Alright.

咱们先从这封信的撰写者说起，因为保罗·都铎·琼斯其实有个合著者，叫洛伦佐·乔尔贾尼，我觉得很有必要了解一下他的背景。

Let's actually start with who wrote this letter because Paul Tudor Jones in fact had a coauthor, Lorenzo Giorgiani, and I think it's really relevant to understand what his background is as well.

上周末，比特币注册投资顾问公司的合伙人亚当·波克尼克深入探讨了这个问题，他直接去查了洛伦佐的领英资料，想弄清楚他的背景。

At the end of last week, Adam Pokernicke, who is a partner at a registered investment adviser for Bitcoin, dug into this specific question and actually went to Lorenzo's LinkedIn profile to figure out what his background was.

信里提到，在2013年加入图多投资之前，洛伦佐曾在华盛顿特区的国际货币基金组织担任过多个高级职位。

It says prior to joining Tutor Investments in 2013, Lorenzo held several senior positions at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.

特区。

C.

从1996年到2013年期间，他在国际货币基金组织改革国际金融架构以及解决金融危机的工作中发挥了领导作用。

Between 1996 and 2013, where he took a leadership role in the IMF's efforts to revamp the international financial architecture and resolve financial crises.

他直接参与过亚洲、阿根廷、土耳其和欧元区金融危机的管理工作。

He has been directly involved in managing financial crises in Asia, Argentina, Turkey, and The Eurozone.

洛伦佐发表过不少学术论文和同行评审期刊文章，还撰写过大量国际货币基金组织的报告，内容涉及国际金融体系、基金贷款作用、全球资本流动、主权债务重组以及银行救助行动。

Lorenzo has published academic research and refereed journals and authored numerous IMF reports on the international financial architecture, including the role of IMF lending, global capital flows, sovereign debt restructuring, and bank rescue operations.

他还撰写了多份国际货币基金组织的国别报告。

He also authored several IMF country reports.

重点是，这个人完全身处全球货币体系的核心圈子里。

The point here is that this is someone who is deep inside the establishment of the global monetary order.

对吧？

Right?

他绝对不是什么外行或边缘人物。

This is not an outsider by any stretch of the imagination.

这是第一部分。

That's part one.

这是其中一位合著者的情况。

That's one of the co authors.

那保罗·图多尔·琼斯本人呢？

What about Paul Tudor Jones himself?

那些之前没听说过他的人，现在大概也了解他的背景了。

Well those of you who hadn't heard of him before probably have gotten the gist of the details now.

他是华尔街传奇交易员，身家超过50亿美元，在福布斯顶级对冲基金经理榜单上排名第七，紧随雷·达利奥等人之后。

Legendary Wall Street trader worth more than $5,000,000,000 Seventh on Forbes list of top hedge funders right behind people like Ray Dalio.

他因预测1987年股市崩盘而声名大噪，更重要的是，他是怎么看待比特币的。

Got famous for predicting the nineteen eighty seven crash, and importantly here's how he describes himself vis a vis Bitcoin.

他说：实话实说，我并不是那种死守硬通货或狂热追捧加密货币的人。

He says, truth in advertising, I am not a hard money nor a crypto nut.

我不是千禧一代那种跟风投资加密货币的年轻人，而是一个婴儿潮一代的投资者，只想在不断变化的环境中抓住机会，同时保护好自己的资本。

I am not a millennial investing in cryptocurrency, which is very popular in that generation, but a baby boomer who wants to capture the opportunity set while protecting my capital in ever changing environments.

怎么做呢？就是投资那些最先对全球货币大规模扩张做出反应的资产。

One way to do that is to make sure I am invested in the instruments that respond first to the massive increase in global money.

既然比特币在最近一段时间都保持着正收益，那就值得深入研究一下。

And given that Bitcoin has positive returns over the most recent timeframes, a deeper dive into it was warranted.

我2017年的时候就接触过，当时在个人账户里买了一点点，纯粹当玩儿。

I did have some experience with it back in 2017, having a tiny amount in my personal account for fun.

惊人的是，我赚了一倍，赶在市场明显过热之前就撤了。

Amazingly, I doubled my money and got out near the top when it was apparent to any market technician we were blowing off.

没有杠杆、没有业绩压力、也没有贪婪干扰时，交易起来居然能这么理性。

It is amazing how well one can trade when there is no leverage, no performance pressure, and no greed to intrude upon rational reflection.

当输赢不重要时，人人都像天才。

When it doesn't count, we are all geniuses.

他其实想说，自己并不是冲着比特币狂热者来的。

Basically he is saying that he is not someone who's coming into this as a Bitcoin enthusiast.

他个人玩过一点，但从没把它当投资组合里的正经选项。

He's dabbled on a personal level, but never really considered it from his portfolio standpoint.

但关键的一点，他在信里写道：市场往往和你的预设完全相反。

But, and this is a key line from his letter, he says, Quite often how the markets respond will be at odds with your priors.

他的意思是，你得放下固有认知，盯着市场实际在发生什么。

He's basically saying you gotta throw aside what you think you know to watch what actually happens with the markets.

那我们就来看看他的观点，以及是什么让他在第一次接触比特币两年半后又回来了。

So let's get into his argument and what brought him back two and a half years later after his first dabble into Bitcoin.

要理解琼斯对比特币的看法，就得先明白他对全球宏观环境的判断。

To understand Jones' Bitcoin thesis, you have to understand his assessment of the global macro environment.

这封信名叫《大货币通胀》，第一段是这么写的。

Now this letter was called the Great Monetary Inflation, and the first paragraph reads as such.

新冠疫情是一种前所未有的病毒，它引发的全球政策响应也是史无前例的。

COVID-nineteen is a one of a kind virus that has triggered a one of a kind policy response globally.

经济下滑的深度和规模，让现代货币理论——也就是直接为巨额财政支出印钞——从理论一夜之间变成了现实，而且没人提出异议。

The depth and magnitude of the economic drop off took modern monetary theory, or the direct monetization of massive fiscal spending, from the theoretical to practice without any debate.

这种变化在全球发生得如此之快，连我这样的市场老手都看得目瞪口呆。

It has happened globally with such speed that even a market veteran like myself was left speechless.

仅仅从二月开始，全球就通过量化宽松凭空创造了3.9万亿美元，占全球GDP的6.6%。

Just since February, a global total of $3,900,000,000,000 6.6% of global GDP, has been magically created through quantitative easing.

我们正在见证一场大货币通胀，货币供应量前所未有地全面扩张，发达世界从未有过这样的情况。

We are witnessing the Great Monetary Inflation an unprecedented expansion of every form of money unlike anything the developed world has ever seen.

对琼斯来说，关键在于，现在正是一个真正可能重回通胀的转折点。

The long and the short of it for Jones is that there is this moment of a real potential crisis where we get back to inflation.

那这种情况是怎么回事呢？

So what's the setup for this?

首先，问题出在债务上。

Well, first has to do with debt.

他指出，国会预算办公室预测，美国政府债务占GDP的比例将超过二战时期的峰值。

As he points out, the CBO, the Congressional Budgeting Office, is projecting that US government debt ratio to reach above the World War two peak.

他说，未来一年半内，整体经济的债务规模可能再增加GDP的50%，这并不奇怪。

He says that it's not inconceivable that economy wide debt ratio will increase by 50% of GDP over the next year and a half.

更重要的是，他提到，中央银行不得不承担起为这场债务扩张融资的责任，接着他解释了这在现实中是怎么运作的。

And importantly, he points out that, quote, central banks are on the hook to help fund this debt increase, and then goes to explain how that looks in practice.

自二月底以来，美联储的资产负债表已经增长了60%，预计到年底可能翻倍。

The Fed's balance sheet has grown 60% since the end of February and is on track to double by end of the year.

而且重要的是，这不只是美联储的事，也不只是美国的问题。

And importantly, this isn't just the Fed, this isn't just The US.

加拿大央行的资产负债表已经扩大了三倍。

The Bank of Canada has tripled its balance sheet.

澳大利亚储备银行的资产负债表也增长了43%。

The Reserve Bank of Australia has increased its balance sheet by 43%.

从货币供应的角度来看，这代表了什么？

What does this look like in terms of the monetary supply?

M2，也就是现金、活期存款、储蓄存款，再加上其他流动性稍低但依然可用的资金，过去一年增长了18.5%，到年底可能达到20%左右。

Well M2, which is basically all the cash and liquid money plus savings deposits and other slightly less liquid but still available monies, has increased 18.5% since a year ago, and is likely to get to between 2040% by the end of year.

一个关键问题是，这跟历史相比意味着什么？

A key question maybe is how does this relate to history, right?

现在的情况跟正常水平差了多远？

How far away from the norm is this?

在2008年金融危机期间，M2的年增长率从未超过10%，这是一个参考点。

Well, during the Great Financial Crisis, M2 never grew by more than 10% a year, so that's one data point.

另一个参考点在于M2和实际经济产出增长之间的关系。

Another data point has to do with the relationship between M2 and the growth in real outputs, right?

这不只是货币供应量在增加，更重要的是，货币增长和整体经济实际产出增长之间的对比。

It's not just about the growth in the money supply, it's about how the growth in the money supply compares to growth in real economic output of the economy in general.

米尔顿·弗里德曼说过一句话，琼斯在他的信里引用了：通货膨胀无论何时何地都是一种货币现象，源于货币供应量的增长速度超过总产出的增长。

Milton Friedman, and this is a quote that Jones puts in his letter, said Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon that arises from a more rapid expansion in the quantity of money than in total output.

所以关键在于，货币供应的增长和经济实际产出的增长之间存在差距。

So the point is that there's a disparity, there's a gap between how much money supply is growing compared to how much the output of the economy is growing.

历史上，只有两个时期M2的增长速度曾像现在这样持续五年超过实际产出增长：一个是二战结束、大萧条尾声的40年代末，另一个是70到80年代的高通胀期，这就是历史背景。

Well the only periods where M2 growth exceeded real output growth over a five year period by the same or faster pace as now were the late 1940s on the tail end of the depression at the end of world war two, and the inflationary periods of the 70s and 80s, so that's the historical context.

但重要的是，琼斯并不认为通胀会马上发生。

Now importantly, when it comes to these inflation predictions, Jones doesn't think that it's going to happen right away.

他认为资产价格的重新上涨会更快出现，而我们其实已经看到了。

He thinks that we're going to see asset price reflation much more quickly, which we're already seeing.

对吧？

Right?

我们常说或听说的V型复苏，其实还有另一面，那就是消费需求——目前需求明显不足，他认为这暂时压住了商品和服务的价格上涨，而且这种状况还会持续一段时间。

This is the supposed v shaped recovery that we've seen or heard talk of, but there's a second piece of this which has to do with consumer demand, and there is a demand shortfall right now which he believes is preventing goods and services from inflating in the short term and actually expects that to continue for some period of time.

他的问题，也是他最核心的问题是：在复苏阶段，如此庞大的货币过剩最终会不会引发消费品价格的通胀？

His question and his most important question in some ways is, quote, whether the large monetary overhang in the recovery phase will eventually stoke consumer price inflation.

对他来说，关键问题是美联储是否有足够的政治决心采取必要措施来避免通胀，也就是大幅加息，鼓励储蓄、抑制消费。而他认为，以目前的情况来看，这几乎不可能实现。

What this comes down to for him is will the Fed have the political willpower to do what it takes to avoid that inflation, which would be to massively increase interest rates to incentivize savings and disincentivize spending, and he believes that it just seems unlikely based on where we are now.

他说，当真正到了加息的时机，任何加息行动都可能被拖延，而且力度也会很有限。

He said when the time for liftoff finally occurs, any hiking is likely to be delayed and unambitious.

此外，还存在一种共谋的风险，

Furthermore, the risk of a complicit, I.

E.

E.

由政治任命的央行行长一旦上任，就很难被轻易撤换，因为央行独立性已经不再是不可触碰的神圣原则。

Politically appointed, central bank chairman cannot be easily dismissed given that central bank independence is no longer a sacred cow.

这一点非常重要。对于关注美联储和财政部关系的人来说——按理说这两者应该彼此独立——这场危机中最令人担忧的迹象之一，就是财政部几乎完全把美联储纳入了自己的影响范围。

This is a really important part, and for people who watch the relationship between the Fed and the Treasury, which are supposed to be highly independent of one another, that has been one of the most concerning signs of this crisis, is just how fully the Treasury has sort of absorbed the Fed into its sphere of influence.

如果你回头听我之前和丹妮尔·迪马蒂诺·布思的那期对话，她就重点谈过这个问题。

If you go back and listen to my episode with Danielle DiMartino Booth, that's a big part that she talks about.

她说，情况已经从‘腐败’演变成了‘彻底崩溃’，这基本上就是她的核心观点。

She talks about how it's gone from corrupt to broken, and that's basically what she's talking about.

除此之外，他还担心通胀可能还有其他原因，跟地缘政治的变化有关。

On top of all of this, he also worries that there could be other reasons for inflation that have to do with basically geopolitical changes.

他说，全球供应链一旦出现断裂，可能会波及商品价格，抵消过去二十年全球化带来的通缩效应。

He says, there may come a tipping point when a breakdown in global supply chain spills over to goods prices, undoing two decades of disinflation attributable to globalization.

总的来说，我们来总结一下。

All in all, let's summarize this.

现在的情况是，美联储正在大量印钞。

You have a situation now where the Fed is printing a huge amount of money.

货币供应量的增长速度远超经济整体产出的增长。

The money supply is increasing much faster than the total output of the economy itself.

这跟历史上其他通胀时期形成了对比。

This compares to other inflationary periods in history.

美联储似乎不太可能有政治魄力，以足够高的幅度加息来真正遏制通胀，而更让人担忧的是，地缘格局可能发生变化，带来另一种通胀压力。

It seems unlikely that the Fed will have the political ability to actually raise interest rates in a way and at a level that could in fact stop inflation, and hanging over all of this is the potential that the geopolitical landscape shifts in such a way that there's a different type of inflationary force.

综合来看，这就是他把这封信称为《大货币通胀》的原因，也是他的投资策略聚焦于如何应对、在这种环境下该买什么的原因。

This all totaled up is why he called this letter the Great Monetary Inflation, and why his investment strategy is focused on how to deal with this, what to buy in this context.

接下来，我们把重点放到这一部分。

So that's the section that we'll shift our attention to next.

在大货币通胀期间，该买些什么呢？

What do you buy inside the Great Monetary Inflation?

我们来盘点一下，在大货币通胀时期值得考虑的资产有哪些。

So let's introduce the contenders of assets that you might wanna buy during the Great Monetary Inflation.

这篇报告里，这部分叫作‘躲避大货币通胀的避风港’。

This section was called Seeking Refuge from the GMI in the paper, in the letter.

他本人，或者更准确地说，他所在的公司，列出了一个通胀对冲资产的排名，他们称之为‘通胀竞速榜’。

He rank ordered a list of inflation hedges, or rather his firm rank ordered a list of inflation hedges called the inflation race.

这就是那份榜单的具体内容。

So here's what those lists look like.

第一名是黄金，他们把它描述为一种拥有两千五百年历史的价值储存手段。

At one was gold, and the way that they framed it was a two thousand five hundred year store of value.

第二名是收益率曲线，历史上它一直是对抗滞胀或央行持续放水的有效屏障。

At two was the yield curve, historically a great defense against stagflation or a central bank intent on inflating.

就我们的目的而言，我们采用做多两年期国债、做空三十年期债券的策略。

For our purposes, we use long two year notes and short thirty year bonds.

第三是纳斯达克100指数。

Number three, Nasdaq 100.

过去十年的走势表明，量化宽松政策会迅速渗透到股市。

The events of the last decade have showed that quantitative easing can rapidly leak into equity markets.

第四是比特币，下面会有详细讨论，这将是我们的下一个部分。

Number four: Bitcoin, and they say there's a lengthy discussion of this below, which will be our next section.

第五是美国周期性板块。

Number five: U.

相对于美国非周期性板块。

S.

做多美国周期性板块。

Cyclicals long over U.

相对于美国非周期性板块。

S.

防御性做空，历史上是纯粹对抗商品通胀的策略。

Defensive short, a pure goods inflation play historically.

第六：做多商品出口国，做空商品进口国。

Number six: long commodity exporter and short commodity importer.

第七：TIPS，即通胀保值债券指数，与CPI挂钩，用于对冲通胀风险。

Number seven: TIPS Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Index to CPI to protect against inflation.

第八：GSCI，高盛商品指数，包含24种商品，反映全球经济增长的基本面。

Number eight: GSCI, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, a basket of 24 commodities that reflects underlying global economic growth.

第九：摩根大通新兴市场货币指数。

And number nine: JPM Emerging Market Currency Index.

历史上，当全球经济增长强劲、通胀压力上升时，新兴市场货币表现往往不错。

Historically when global growth is high and inflationary pressures are building, emerging market currencies have done quite well.

于是，这家机构把所有这些资产摆出来，对比了它们在过去一周、一个月、三个月和一年的表现，结果比特币在实际产出指标中排第四，这让他开始更认真地思考这个问题。

So what the firm did then with this inflation race was put all these things on a table and look at their performance comparatively over the last week, the last month, the last three months, and the last year, and Bitcoin is at number four for actual productive outputs, which basically is what got him to think about this more.

这就是他们为什么把比特币纳入考量、视其为潜在选项的背景。

So this is the the setup to why they actually thought about Bitcoin, why they put Bitcoin into the fray as a contender.

他这时候开始提到，自己并不是那种死守硬通货或狂热的加密货币信徒。

This is where he starts to say, or he comes back to this idea that he's not a hard money nut or a crypto nut.

但正如他所说，GMI 让我时隔两年半第一次重新考虑把比特币当作投资标的。

But, and this is as he put it, The GMI caused me to revisit Bitcoin as an investable asset for the first time in two point five years.

它属于价值储藏的类别，还额外具备一定的交易功能。

It falls into the category of a store of value and has the added bonus of being semi transactional in nature.

一笔比特币交易平均需要大约六十分钟完成，因此可以说它接近于准货币。

The average Bitcoin transaction takes around sixty minutes to complete, which makes it quote near money.

它必须与其他价值储藏手段竞争，比如金融资产、黄金、法币，以及流动性较差的资产如艺术品、贵重宝石和土地。

It must compete with other stores of value such as financial assets, gold and fiat currency, and less liquid ones such as art, precious stones, and land.

每个投资者都要面对一个问题：十年后，谁会是最终的赢家？

The question facing every investor is, what will the winner be in ten years' time?

想找办法释放你加密资产的流动性吗？

Looking for the best way to unlock your crypto's liquidity?

Nexo.io 正好能满足你的需求。

Nexo.io is exactly what you need.

以年化6.9%的利率抵押你的数字资产，还能获得最高12%的被动收益。

Borrow against your digital assets at just 6.9% APR, Earn passive income with yields of up to 12%.

通过Nexo即时交易平台，轻松兑换一百多种市场币对。

And swap between more than a 100 market pairs with the instant Nexo Exchange.

下载Nexo钱包App，体验全方位的加密银行服务。

Try the Nexo Wallet app to get the whole three sixty degrees of crypto banking.

立即前往 nexo.io 开始使用。

Get started at nexo.io.

想现在就开始？就去 nexo.io。

That's nexo.io to get started today.

比特币是一种具有部分交易功能的价值储存手段。

Bitcoin is a store of value that is semi transactional in nature.

那他说的价值储存，到底指的是什么？

Well, what does he mean when he says store of value?

他指的是任何能在未来保持购买力的东西。

He calls it anything that holds its purchasing power in the future.

这完全取决于人们对它的价值有多大的认可。

It is completely a function of people's perception of its worth.

那在其他加密资产的背景下，比特币又怎么样呢？

Well what about Bitcoin in the context of other crypto assets, right?

他说，在价值储藏这个范畴里，比特币是最新加入的，它在2017年的加密货币大战中脱颖而出，成为明确的赢家，市值是其 closest 竞争对手的十倍。

He says in the context of stores of value, the newest entrant is Bitcoin, which seems to have emerged from the crypto war of twenty seventeen as the clear winner with a market cap 10x that of its closest competitor.

到目前为止，都跟得上吧。

All tracking so far.

比特币显然是加密货币领域的领头羊，它具备一些特别突出的特点，尤其在回答他提出的关于大通胀的问题时显得格外重要。

Bitcoin is clearly at the very head of the cryptocurrency industry and has a number of features that make it particularly interesting in the context of this particular question that he has as it relates to the great monetary inflation.

他们接着分析了什么才是一个好的价值储藏工具，并从四个维度来评估。

They looked then at what makes for a good store of value and graded them on four characteristics.

这四个维度分别是：购买力、可信度、流动性，以及便携性。

The four characteristics were purchasing power, trustworthiness, liquidity, and portability.

他们给这四个维度分别赋予了不同的权重。

Now they gave each of these a different weighting.

所以购买力和可信度各占评分的30%，而流动性和便携性各占20%。

So purchasing power and trustworthiness were each given 30% of the weighting of a score of 100, while liquidity and portability were both given a 20% score.

也就是说，他们认为，对于价值储存来说，购买力和可信度比流动性和便携性更重要。

So they basically are saying purchasing power and trustworthiness are even more important characteristics for a store of value than are liquidity and portability.

他们特意排除了房地产、艺术品、贵重宝石这类东西，因为它们的流动性和便携性太差，根本没法跟其他资产比，所以这次讨论只聚焦在金融资产上。

Importantly, they removed real estate, art, precious stones, and things like that because the liquidity and portability makes them just sort of not even on the chart, and because of that they focused just for the sake of this discussion on financial assets.

最终评分出来后，金融资产得了71分，黄金62分，法币现金54分，比特币43分。

So in the final accounting with all the grading done, the financial assets got a subjective score of 71, gold got a subjective score of 62, fiat cash got a subjective score of 54, and Bitcoin got a subjective score of 43.

这里评的，是各种资产储存价值的能力。

And again, this is grading assets by their ability to store value.

不过，重点来了，正如琼斯所说，让我意外的不是比特币排在最后，而是它居然能拿到这么高的分数。

However, and this is important, to quote Jones, what was surprising to me was not that Bitcoin came in last, but that it scored as high as it did.

我们稍后再回过头来细说这一点。

We'll come back to that in just a minute.

咱们来看看他们是怎么在购买力、可信度、流动性和便携性这几个维度上具体打分的。

Let's look into how they actually graded in these different categories, purchasing power, trustworthiness, liquidity, and portability.

在购买力方面，他说团队里很多人主要关注金融资产，其实就是想找能带来收益、跑赢通胀的投资标的。

On the purchasing power front, he said that many on his team focused on financial assets, so basically they were looking for carry, they were looking for yield as a way to beat inflation.

琼斯对这一点没那么看重，甚至有点怀疑，他提到上世纪70年代的通胀时期，大多数金融资产的收益根本追不上通胀。

Jones was less focused on that or had more skepticism there, and pointed to the 1970s inflation during which most financial assets yield couldn't keep up with inflation.

对琼斯来说，他真正关心的是所谓的‘稀缺溢价’。

Instead, for Jones, what he was interested in was, quote, the scarcity premium.

他说，我也论证过持有比特币的价值，它正是稀缺溢价的典型代表。

He said, I also made the case for owning Bitcoin, the quintessence of scarcity premium.

它是世界上唯一一个总量固定、可交易的大类资产。

It is literally the only large tradable asset in the world that has a known fixed maximum supply.

根据设计，比特币的总量——包括还没挖出来的——永远不会超过两千一百万枚。

By its design, the total quantity of Bitcoins, including those not yet mined, cannot exceed 21,000,000.

目前大约已经挖出了一千八百五十万枚，还剩下大约一成左右。

Approximately 18,500,000 Bitcoins have already been mined, leaving about 10% remaining.

5月12日，比特币的挖矿奖励将第三次减半，从每个区块12.5枚降到6.25枚。

On May 12, Bitcoin's mining reward, the pace at which the supply of Bitcoin is increased, will for the third time be halved, falling from 12.5 to 6.25 Bitcoins per block of transactions added to the blockchain.

未来的减半也会大约每四年发生一次，这是比特币设计的一部分，会持续降低供应增长的速度，以至于有人估计，最后一枚比特币要再过一百多年才会被挖出来。

Future halvings will likewise occur approximately every four years consistent with Bitcoin's design, thus continuing to slow the rate of supply increase and causing some to estimate that the last available Bitcoin will not be mined for another hundred plus years.

比特币的这一精妙设计，由其匿名创造者提出，目的是通过让比特币越来越稀缺来保护其价值，这与当前央行和政府的思维完全背道而驰。

This brilliant feature of Bitcoin was designed by the anonymous creator of Bitcoin to protect its integrity by making it increasingly near and dear, a concept alien to the current thinking of central banks and governments.

这一段话，比我们所有最棒的推文加起来都更能说明比特币在应对无限印钞时的价值，所以我才想把这段完整读给你听。

That one paragraph describes the argument for Bitcoin in the face of unlimited money printing better than any amount of our best tweets ever could, which is why I wanted to read you the whole thing.

所以再回到以资产保值能力来评估的语境下，他团队里很多人关注的是从金融资产中获取收益，但琼斯真正看重的是比特币的稀缺溢价。

So again, in the context of this grading assets by their ability to store value for purchasing power, many on his team were focused on getting yield from financial assets, but Jones was really interested in the scarcity premium of Bitcoin.

那信任度呢？

What about trustworthiness?

这一点，你大概不会感到意外。

Well in that, you'll probably not be surprised.

比特币在信任度上得分最低，主要是因为它太年轻了，跟已经有两千五百年历史的黄金相比，根本没法比。

Bitcoin scored the lowest simply because it's the youngest, especially in the face of something like gold, which has been around for two thousand five hundred years.

但在流动性方面，比特币其实表现得非常出色。

With liquidity, it actually is a really strong area for Bitcoin.

他在信里说，比特币是全球唯一全天候交易的价值储存工具。

In the letter he says, Bitcoin is the only store of value that actually trades twenty four seven in the entire world.

这一点我们以前也聊过很多次，比特币是唯一真正的自由市场。

This is something we've talked a lot about before, how Bitcoin is the only free market.

正如他指出的，这是唯一一种无论你身在何处，都能在全球范围内24/7交易的资产。

Well, it's as he's pointing out, it's the only one of these assets that really trades $24.07 across the entire planet no matter where you are.

这个市场从不关门。

The market doesn't close.

最后是便携性的问题，他对这一点的描述我很认同。

Lastly, there's the question of portability, and I really like the way that he described this.

这一点我之前在这里也说过很多次。

It's something that you'll have heard a lot from me here.

琼斯说，最后是便携性。

Jones says, Finally, there is portability.

和流动性一样，不到用的时候，你根本意识不到它有多重要。

Like liquidity, it is not an issue until it is.

想象一下，某个地方发生剧变——无论是战争、疫情，还是政府更迭——导致当地对财富持有者变得不友好。

Imagine a geographic upheaval, whether it be caused by war, an epidemic, or change in government, that becomes hostile to holders of wealth.

一个好的价值储存手段，应该能轻松地从一个地区转移到另一个地区，几乎不需要任何交易成本。

A great store of value can be seamlessly moved from one jurisdiction to another with little or no transaction costs.

现金在这方面显然很管用。

Cash is obviously good for that.

黄金也不错，但太笨重了；相比之下，比特币就厉害多了，它甚至能存在手机里，其他方式也行。

Gold is okay but clunky, but of course, nothing beats Bitcoin, which can be stored on a smartphone among other options.

所以在流动性和可携带性这两方面，比特币的表现都非常出色。

So on both the liquidity and the portability front, Bitcoin is doing really well.

这就是他们整个分析的大致思路。正如我之前说的，比特币排在第四，但对他来说，关键不在于比特币在资产列表里排第几，而在于它的价格相对于其他资产来说怎么样。

So that's kind of the flavor of the overall exercise that they did, and as I said, Bitcoin came in fourth, but the key conclusion for him had to do less with where on the list of assets it fit, but more its price relative to those other assets.

所以他最终的结论是，比特币目前被定价错了。

So he basically comes to the conclusion that Bitcoin is currently mispriced.

他再次说，让我意外的不是比特币排在最后，而是它居然能拿到这么高的分数。

He says again, what was surprising to me was not that Bitcoin came in last, but that it scored as high as it did.

比特币的整体评分接近金融资产的60%，但它的市值却只有金融资产的千分之一。

Bitcoin had an overall score nearly 60% of that of financial assets, but has a market cap that is one twelve hundredth of that.

作为价值储存，比特币的得分是黄金的66%，但它的市值却只有黄金总价值的六十分之一。

It scores 66% of gold as a store of value, but has a market cap that is one sixtieth of gold's outstanding value.

这里明显有问题，我猜问题出在比特币的价格上。

Something appears wrong here, and my guess is it is the price of Bitcoin.

对于聪明的投资者来说，只要觉得某个资产被严重低估，就足以促使他们去配置它；但他还提到另一个观点，虽然听起来像是顺带一提，但在今天早上的CNBC采访中他反复强调：未来，人们获取比特币会变得普遍得多。

Now all it takes for a smart investor to want to hedge into an asset is to believe that it is fundamentally mispriced in such a way, but there's another part of his argument, one kind of last almost presented as a throwaway piece, but really reinforced on the CNBC interview this morning, where he believes that it's much more commonplace, or it's likely to become much more commonplace to have access to Bitcoin going forward.

他说：'持有比特币最有力的理由，是全球货币正在加速数字化，而新冠疫情进一步推动了这一趋势。'

So what he says about this is quote, The most compelling argument for owning Bitcoin is the coming digitization of currency everywhere, accelerated by COVID-nineteen.

牛市的根基，在于不断扩大的买家群体。

Bull markets are built on an ever expanding universe of buyers.

比特币的价格关键在于，未来会有多少新增的持有者，超越当前的六千万人。

Central to the price of Bitcoin is how many more or less owners of Bitcoin there will be beyond the 60,000,000 who currently own it.

Facebook的Libra——其价值与美元挂钩，因此不具备储值功能，以及中国的数字人民币，也都与人民币绑定——这些都将让数字钱包成为全球民众的日常工具。

The probable introduction of Facebook's Libra, whose value will be pegged to the US dollar and will not be a store of value in that sense, as well as China's DSEP, also tied to the Yuan, will make virtual digital wallets a commonplace tool for the world.

这会让人们更容易理解和使用比特币，持有它也会变得比现在普遍得多。

It will make the understanding utility and ease of ownership of Bitcoin a much more commonplace option than it is today.

这其实很有意思，因为他重复的正是加密圈很多人说过的话——Libra、中国央行数字货币，还有其他央行数字货币，其实都在帮新用户熟悉数字钱包，而这种熟悉感会让他们更自然地转向比特币这类资产。

So this is really interesting because he's parroting basically arguments that many in the crypto space have made that Libra and China's DSEP and other central bank digital currencies effectively create an onboarding mechanism for new users to get comfortable with digital wallets that might lead more easily to some different type of asset like Bitcoin.

所以，最后我们直接来看他原话中的核心观点。

So by way of wrapping it up, let's take his words themselves and to the key point.

他说，考虑到当前的现实情况，持有比特币是保护自己免受GMI影响的好方法。

He says, owning Bitcoin is a great way to defend oneself against the GMI given the current fact set.

正如比特币的匿名创造者中本聪，在他推出比特币时曾在网络论坛上写道：传统货币的根本问题在于，它需要太多信任。

As Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous creator of Bitcoin, stated in an online forum around the time he launched Bitcoin, quote: The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work.

我们必须信任中央银行不会让货币贬值，但法币的历史充满了对这种信任的背弃。

The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust.

我并不主张孤立地持有比特币，但我承认，在当今现代史上最非传统的经济政策环境下，它确实有其潜力。

I am not an advocate of Bitcoin ownership in isolation, but do recognize its potential in a period when we have the most unorthodox economic policies in modern history.

所以我们需要调整自己的投资策略。

So we need to adapt our investment strategy.

我们已经更新了Tudor BVI的投资备忘录，明确指出可能会为Tudor BVI交易比特币期货。

We have updated the Tudor BVI offering memoranda to disclose that we may trade Bitcoin futures for Tudor BVI.

归根结底，能带来最高收益的策略就是持有跑得最快的那匹马。

At the end of the day, the best profit maximizing strategy is to own the fastest horse.

直接选表现最好的资产就行，别被自己的理论束缚住，否则你可能会因为自以为比市场聪明而输得一塌糊涂。

Just own the best performer, and not get wed to an intellectual side that might leave you weeping in the performance dust because you thought you were smarter than the market.

如果非要我预测，我会押注比特币。

If I am forced to forecast, my bet is it will be Bitcoin.

就像我开头说的，我们做这个全面分析的原因是，推特上只能抓到标题和热度，却没法传达背后的完整逻辑。

So like I said at the intro to the reason to do this full breakdown is that on Twitter we can capture the headlines and some of the excitement, but we don't capture the full logic.

你能看出来，这里面投入了大量思考，这套评估价值储存工具的方法，还有对不同资产储存价值能力的排序，都不是随便来的。

And as you can tell, a huge amount of thinking went into this, right, this whole methodology for looking at stores of value, these rank orderings of the different stores of value or assets on their ability to store value.

这些观点特别关键，尤其是当你想跟朋友、家人，或者潜在的合投伙伴聊起保罗·都铎·琼斯的例子来支持比特币时，更得说清楚。

These are really important parts of this argument, especially if you wanna go turn around and use the Paul Tudor Jones case for Bitcoin when you're talking to your friends, to your family, to people you wanna co invest with, whatever it is.

你得真正理解这些结论背后的逻辑，不能只看表面新闻。

You gotta understand the actual logic going into this beyond the headlines.

希望刚才的内容对你们有帮助。

Hopefully this was helpful.

就像我上周说的，我再重复一遍，我觉得这真是一个极其重要的时刻，当然，也不是没有复杂之处。

Like I said last week, and I'll say it again, I think this is a massively significant moment and you know, it's not without complications.

我相信在未来几周里，我们会深入讨论机构真正进入比特币意味着什么，可能面临哪些风险。

I'm sure that over the coming weeks, we'll talk about what it means to have institutions actually coming into Bitcoin, what the risks might be.

很多人指出，他们谈的并不是直接持有比特币这个底层资产，而是押注期货，这是完全不同的事情。

Many have pointed out that they're not talking about getting exposure to Bitcoin, the underlying asset, but to making bets on futures, which is a very different process.

所以这并不是一件毫无保留的好事，就像任何机构化都不是完全正面的一样，但它确实向市场发出了一个重要的信号。

So it's not an unreservedly good thing just as any institutionalization is not an unreservedly good thing, but it is a significant signal to the market.

希望今天之后，你们能更清楚地理解这个信号的含义，以及它从何而来。

So hopefully you understand that signal and where it came from a little bit better today than you did.

和往常一样，谢谢大家收听。

As always guys, thank you for listening.

非常感谢，明天再见，注意安全，互相照顾。

I appreciate it, and until tomorrow, be safe and take care of each other.

愿平安。

Peace.