罗伯特·清崎精选：美元为何走向衰亡及未来何去何从

多年来，《富爸爸》广播节目引发了强有力的对话，挑战传统智慧，揭示了大多数人从未听过的金钱真相。在这期特别合集中，我们汇集了一些最具启发性、争议性和难忘的时刻，让你重温那些持续改变人生的课程。准备好迎接《富爸爸》广播的精华内容吧。

Over the years, the rich dad radio show has sparked powerful conversations, challenged conventional wisdom, and revealed the truths about money most people never hear. In this special compilation, we've pulled together some of the most eye opening, controversial, and unforgettable moments so you can revisit the lessons that continue to change lives. Get ready for the best of rich dad radio.

这里是《富爸爸》广播节目——关于金钱的好消息。有请罗伯特·清崎。

This is the rich dad radio show, the good news about money. Here's Robert Kiyosaki.

大家好。我是罗伯特·清崎。我将与我的合著者泰德·萨德尔一起讨论这本书。

Hello. Hello. Hello. Robert Kiyosaki. I'm gonna be talking about this book here with my coauthor Ted Saddell.

虽然泰德不在连线中，但我认为继续推进很重要。在2020年出版的《谁动了我的养老金》书末写道：美国头号出口商品是什么？答案是假钞。我们印钞票，而这些理财顾问却向你推销债券之类。这涉及一个叫斯坦定律的经济法则。

So Ted's not beyond this call, but I think it's important that I continue on anyway. And at the back of Who's Toll My Pension, which came out in 2020, it says, is America's number one export? And America's number one export is fake money. We print money and these financial planners sell you bonds and all that. And there's a law called Stein's law.

斯坦定律指出：所有终结之事终将终结。我在此讨论是因为我们婴儿潮一代被坑惨了——我们轻信了这些理财顾问，轻信了养老金制度。教师们信了教师工会养老金，卡车司机们信了卡车司机工会养老金。

And Stein's law says, what will come to an end will come to an end. And the reason I wanna talk about this here is my generation, the boomer generation is screwed because we trusted these financial planners. We trusted these pensions. You know, they trusted the teachers union pension. They trusted the teamsters union pensions.

结果这些机构成了最大的骗子。理财顾问会告诉你债券很安全——全是谎言。他们在欺骗你。如今金融导弹里根本没有安全资产，因为美国头号出口商品就是假钞。

And those guys are turning out to be some of the bigger crooks. And these financial planners will tell you bonds are safe and all that lying. They're lying to you. Not true. There's nothing safe in the in the missiles today because America's number one export is fake money.

我们印钞票。现在大概每90天就要印1万亿美元。印钞流程首先要创造债券——美国国债。这些理财顾问和养老基金疯狂购入，还口口声声说债券最安全。

We print money. And I think we're printing a trillion dollars, but every ninety days or something. And the ways you can print money is you first have to create a bond, a US Treasury bond. And these financial planners and pensions buy them like crazy. They basically say that bonds are safe.

它们不安全，什么都不安全。愚蠢也不安全。这就是为什么我找到了《富爸爸》现金流桌游，至少你可以自我教育。你知道，甚至不用相信我。很简单的原因就是，很少有人能做到我做的事。

They're not safe, nothing's safe. Stupidity isn't safe. And so that's why I found that Rich Dad, the cash flow board game over here, so you can at least educate yourself. You know, don't even believe me. The very simple reason is very few people can do what I do.

你看大多数人，看看我身后，这就是所谓的‘老鼠赛跑’。学校就是让你去那里。你知道，上学、找工作、努力工作、存钱。他们在骗你。他们在骗你。

You see most people, you look behind me, this is called the rat race. And that's where schools tell you to go to. You know, go to school, get a job, work hard, save money. And they're lying to you. They're lying to you.

听着，女士们先生们，即将到来的是AI，人工智能，以及超级人工智能。未来五年内，你将不再需要律师——这倒是件好事。你也不再需要会计师。就像现在，我可以用AI起草合同而无需律师。所以那些优等生们，他们上学成为律师、会计师甚至医生，现在因为AI正变得过时。

Look, what's coming, ladies and gentlemen, is called AI, artificial intelligence, and super artificial intelligence. So in the next five years, you won't need attorneys, which is a good idea. You won't need accountants. Like even today, I can do contracts without attorneys using AI. And so all those A students, who went to school and became attorneys and accountants and even doctors are becoming obsolete because of AI.

然后你在这个信息中加入比特币。就像我说的，比特币是假币世界里的真钱。人们说比特币，嗯，你知道，它不像某某那样安全。但比特币比美元更安全。我不是说它绝对安全。

Then you add Bitcoin to this whole message. And Bitcoin, like I said, is real money in a world of fake money. So Bitcoins, people say, well, it's, you know, it's it's not as safe as dah dah dah. Well, Bitcoin is safer than the US dollar. I'm not saying it's safe.

这点我不会骗你。但比特币和以太坊比假美元更安全，因为美国最大的出口产品就是假钱。就像我说的，每90天我们就印一万亿美元的假钱。我那些学术界的亲戚总说‘我们要存钱’。如果你读过《富爸爸穷爸爸》，我说过‘储蓄者是输家’。

I won't lie to you there. But Bitcoin and Ethereum are safer than the fake US dollar because America's biggest export is fake money. Like I said, every 90 we print a trillion dollars in fake money. And my academic relatives, they always say, well, we save money. Well, if you read Rich Dad Poor Dad, I put savers are losers.

你不要存钱，因为他们在印钱。为什么要存他们正在印刷的东西？所以当人们说黄金价格上涨时，其实不是黄金涨价，而是美元的购买力在下降。那你为什么还要存美元呢？

You don't save money because they're printing it. Why would you save something they're printing? So when people say, well, the price of gold is going up. It's not that the price of gold is going up, the price, the purchasing power of the dollar is coming down. So why do you save dollars?

所以这就是为什么我不说比特币或以太坊绝对安全，但它们比美元更安全。这本和泰德·西德尔合著的书里写着——他被评为美国养老金行业40位最具影响力人物之一。泰德·西德尔正在揭露我们虚假的养老金制度，比如教师工会养老金，加州公务员退休系统这些犯罪操作，他们从教师、消防员和警察的养老金里偷钱。那些银行家正在偷你的钱。罗伯特·清崎，《富爸爸》电台节目。

So that's why I'm not saying Bitcoin is safe or Ethereum safe, but it's safer than the dollar. And this book here with Ted Saddell, he is, it says here something like this is, he was named the 40 most influential people in The US pension industry. Ted Sindell, who's blowing the whistle on our fake pensions, like our teachers union pensions, you know, CalPERS and all those criminal operations that supply the teachers and firefighters and police officers their pension, they're stealing from you. Those bankers are stealing from you. Robert Kiyosaki, Rich Dad Radio Show.

我们的老朋友是道格·凯西。我们曾在不同场合交流，但最终是在坎昆的'游牧资本家'展会上面对面相识的。

Our friend is longtime friend, Doug Casey. He and I, talk at different places, but we finally met Doug, I think it was at the Nomad Capitalist Show in Cancun or something like that where we went face to face.

我想你是对的。那应该是在新冠疫情大恐慌期间，对吧？

I think you're right. I think that was during the great COVID hysteria, wasn't it?

总之，能最终面对面交流是件好事。顺便说一句，道格很有眼光地选择在阿根廷、乌拉圭和美国生活，因此他对世界有着独特的视角。我正在协助他推广这本新书《准备》。

Anyway, it was good to go face to face finally, but now we And then by the way, Doug has a good sense to live in Argentina and Uruguay and America. So he has a unique perspective on the world. And I'm helping him help. This is his latest book here called The Preparation. And I told him I would help plug the book.

道格，我觉得这本书应该改名为《如何成为财富战士的准备指南》。

Doug, I think the name of this book should be called The Preparation to Be a Soldier of Fortune.

这正是我写这本书的初衷之一。我们试图告诉年轻人：为什么要浪费四年光阴和大笔金钱去大学这个污水坑里接受那些病态思想的灌输？不如用这段时间掌握实用技能，把自己培养成文艺复兴式的全才。

I guess that's one of the reasons I wrote the book. It's in the book. What we're trying to do is tell young men why they should not misallocate four years of their time and a whole bunch of money to go to college and be indoctrinated with absolutely sick ideas in a cesspool and use that time to pick up skills, and in effect, turn themselves into a renaissance man.

是啊...我见过不少美国男人整天窝在地下室打游戏，指望401k养老金计划能管用。这到底是怎么了——

Yeah. I I meet I meet I meet some of the American men who sit in the basement playing video games, hoping their four zero one k works. What is wrong with

谁知道呢？他们活得就像室内盆栽。这种生存策略对人类可不妙，特别是在我们即将面对的时代。罗伯特，我在想查理·柯克遇刺会不会像1963年肯尼迪遇刺那样成为转折点？很可能就是。

Well, I don't know. They're acting like house plants. And acting like a house plant is not a good survival strategy for a human, especially not in the kind of times that we're headed into right now. And I'm I'm wondering, Robert, whether the, assassination of Charlie Kirk is one of those tipping points, much like the assassination of JFK was back in 1963. It might be.

这正是我想问你的问题之一。作为一个身处南美洲的美国人，回望我们的国家，你看到了什么？那里现在是什么情况？

And that's one of those questions I was gonna ask you. As an American sitting in South America, looking into our country, what do you see? What's going on in?

我虽深爱美国，却不得不这么说。这是个独特的国家，是世界历史上唯一建立在言论自由、思想自由和市场自由原则上的国家。但我担心它已变得腐败堕落。我认为我们将面临我称之为'大萧条'的时期，届时大多数人的生活水平将大幅下降。

I hate to say it because I love America. It's a unique country. It's the only country in world history that was founded on the principles of free speech, and free minds, and free markets. But I'm afraid that it's become corrupt and degraded. And, I think we're in for something I call the greater depression, a period of time when most people's standard of living, drops significantly.

我认为这次萧条将与1929至1946年那次大不相同，持续时间会更长。是的，而且会更严重。

And I think it's gonna be, much different and much longer than what we had from 1929 to 1946. Yep. And worse also.

既然我们正朝着那个方向发展，而你我已是这代人中的长者，你为此做了哪些准备？或者说，你会建议人们如何准备？要知道，如果你存美元，美国每年印钞2万亿，就像津巴布韦那样。没错，为什么还要存美元呢？

And so we're going in that direction, you know, since you and I are now the senior citizens of this generation, how are you prepared for it? I mean, or what would you recommend a person prepare for it? You know, if you save the dollar, America is printing 2,000,000,000,000 a year, like Zimbabwe was. Yep. Why would you save the dollar?

存美元是疯狂的，但你必须储蓄。重要的是生产多于消费，并储蓄差额。但该以什么形式储蓄？你不能存美元，它们就像烫手山芋。

It's crazy to save the dollar, but you have to save. It's important to produce more than you consume and save the difference. But what do you save it in? You can't save dollars. They're hot potatoes.

这相当于一个破产政府开出的空头支票。所以我一直用金银作为储蓄工具。我最初以每盎司40美元左右的价格买入黄金，从未卖出过一盎司。现在我仍持有全部黄金和大量白银。我不愿建议人们现在买黄金，因为以前黄金相对于其他资产明显被低估。

It's an I owe you nothing on the part of a bankrupt government. So I've used gold and silver as savings vehicles forever. So I bought my first gold at around $40 an ounce, and I've never sold, an ounce. So I still have it all and lots of silver. I hate to, advise people to buy gold now because before, it was obviously depressed relative to everything else.

在我看来，现在黄金相对于汽车、房子、衣服的价格已基本合理。虽然由于各种原因金价可能再涨十倍，但并非因为当前价格过低。问题在于现在该以什么形式储蓄？我认为这是人类从未面临过的更严峻的处境。

Now it seems to me gold is more or less where it should be relative to cars, houses, clothes. I think it could go 10 to one from here for different reasons, but not because it's underpriced. But you have to save. The problem is what do you save in now? It's a tougher situation than people have ever been in before, I think.

我认为Felder的股价仍然相对被低估，还会继续上涨。

I think Felder is still relatively underpriced, just going higher.

是的。巴菲特最近提到一个我同样担忧的问题，他说婴儿潮一代401k账户面临的最大威胁是通货膨胀。没错。无论他们401k里存了多少钱，而我们现在支出比收入多出2万亿。

Yeah. And then you know what Buffett's been saying, which is a concern that I have, he says, worst thing that's gonna hit the boomer generation with their 401ks is inflation. Yeah. No matter how much they have in their four zero one ks, and we're spending 2,000,000,000,000 more than we pull in,

他们可能...嗯，那是...

They're probably Well, that's

鲍勃，什么？

Bob, what?

嗯，没错。我是说，你买普通股票可能年化收益就2%到3%左右。但美元贬值的速度远超你想象，政府的统计数据已经和阿根廷政府一样不可信了。

Well, that's right. I mean, you buy your average stock and maybe it's yielding two or 3%, something like that. Yeah. But the dollar's losing value at you can't believe the government's figures. You can't believe the US government's figures any more than you can believe the Argentine government's figures.

美元实际年贬值率在5%到10%之间。那该怎么办？我知道房地产让你获利颇丰，毕竟是实物资产。但现在房地产是否也估值过高了？

The dollar is losing value in real terms in between 510% per year. So what do you do? I know real estate has always treated you extremely well because it's a real asset. But is real estate getting overpriced too?

不过总能找到便宜货，懂我意思吗？这就是我喜欢房地产的原因——永远有人在抛售。

Well, you can always find a bargain. You know what I mean? That's what I like about real estate. There's somebody always in the sell mode.

所以这是一个流动性不足的市场。

So this is an illiquid market.

我还有另一个问题想问你，因为在阿根廷，那个叫哈维尔·米莱的家伙，你知道的，他挥舞着电锯。当你看到特朗普和马斯克走到一起时，你是否感到一线希望？

This is another question I wanna ask you because being in Argentina, this guy Javier Mille, you know, he took the chainsaw. When you saw Trump and Musk get together, was there a glimmer of hope from you?

听着，我原本是狗狗币的狂热粉丝，也很欣赏他和马斯克想做的事。但狗狗币基本上已经销声匿迹了，而特朗普现在花钱像个醉醺醺的水手。等等，等等。他和马斯克的关系并不...怎么说...并不正确。

Listen, I was a huge fan of Doge, and what he and what Musk wanted to do. But Doge has basically disappeared, and, Trump is spending money like a drunk sailor at this point. Wait. Wait. His his relation with with Musk is not what correct.

纠正一下，醉醺醺的水手花的是自己的钱。

To correct you. Drunk sailors spend their own money.

说得好。说得好。

That's a good point. That's a good point.

继续讲。继续讲。

Keep going. Keep going.

好吧，狗狗币是唯一能拯救美国政府免于彻底可悲的破产和债务违约的东西——这些迟早会发生。但问题是阿根廷曾拥有全球最糟糕的经济之一，民众彻底受够了，于是他们选举了哈维尔·米莱，这人扬言要用电锯砍掉政府的所有作为。他确实做了些了不起的事：解雇了数万名无用的政府雇员，在多领域削减预算。不过...他也犯了些错误。

Well, Doge is the only thing that could save the US government from total and abject bankruptcy and defaulting on all of its obligations, which is going to happen. But the problem is that Argentina had one of the worst economies in the world, and the people got totally fed up, and they elected Javier Mele, who said that he wanted to take a chainsaw to everything the government does. And he did wonderful things. He fired scores of thousands of, worthless government employees, cut the budget in many places. But, he's made some mistakes.

就像他说的要废除中央银行，相当于这个国家的美联储。但他没做到。大错特错。他本应让阿根廷所有外债违约。为什么？

Like he said he was gonna abolish the central bank, their equivalent to the Fed in this country. He didn't do it. Big mistake. He should have defaulted on all of Argentina's foreign debts. Why?

那些钱全被上届政府贪污了。所以他不该——你们也不该——让下一代阿根廷人，甚至美国人，沦为偿还这些被挥霍债务的农奴。坦白说，他本应选择违约。而现在他又向美国政府借更多钱。当然，美国政府自己也没钱。

That money was all stolen, by the previous administration. So he shouldn't, you shouldn't, turn the next generation of Argentines, or for that matter, Americans, into serfs paying off debt that was pissed away, quite frankly. So he should have defaulted on that. And now he's borrowing more money from the US government. Well, of course, the US government doesn't have the money either.

他们正在印钞。所以我不确定。我听着呢。我热爱阿根廷，作为度假胜地，它是世界顶级之一。但我希望马来别因迷失方向而搞砸，说白了就是拿电锯对着政府乱砍。

It's printing up the money. So I don't know. I listen. I I love Argentina, and it's as a place to to hang out, it's one of the best in the world. But I I hope Malay doesn't blow it by losing the plot, which is basically taking a chainsaw to the government.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

多年前我就写过世界历史上最大的崩盘即将来临。现在崩盘正在发生。婴儿潮一代正在失去退休金。许多人将被迫搬去和子女同住。这让我心碎。

I wrote years ago that the biggest crash in world history was coming. The crash is happening now. Baby boomers are losing their retirements. Many will be forced to move in with their kids. It breaks my heart.

几十年来我一直在警告你们。问题很简单：人们信任纸质资产。他们以为存美元很安全，但通胀正在吞噬他们的积蓄。现金正在变成废纸。

I have warned you about this for decades. The problem is simple. People trusted paper assets. They believed saving dollars was safe, but inflation is destroying their savings. Cash, it's turning to trash.

唯一的出路是持有实物资产，黄金，尤其是白银。白银刚突破每盎司50美元。接下来可能是75，甚至100。这就是为什么我要你们获取《富爸爸20.25美元白银预测指南》。你将了解白银上涨只是开始，以及如何将部分IRA或401k转为实物白银。

The only way out is with real assets, gold, and especially silver. Silver just broke $50 an ounce. 75 could be next, maybe even 100. That's why I want you to get the rich dad $20.25 silver forecast guide. You'll learn why silver's rise is only the beginning and how to move part of your IRA or four zero one k into physical silver.

免税免罚。拨打(866)703-9895或发送短信silver至24999。危机已至。切勿等到积蓄耗尽。拨打(866)703-9895或发送短信silver至24999。

Tax free, penalty free. Call (866) 703-9895 or text silver to 24999. The crash is here. Do not wait until your savings disappear. Call (866) 703-9895 or text silver to 24999.

白银是危机时代的真货币。

Silver is real money for a world in crisis.

嘿，罗伯特·清崎你好啊。今天我请来了一位特别嘉宾，他是我的老友，也是我打心底敬重的人——哈里·登特。我喜欢哈里是因为他不玩虚的。如果需要改变观点，他就会改变。所以我不用担心世上会有三四个不同的哈里·登特。

Well, hello, hello, Robert Kiyosaki. And today I have a very special guest, longtime friend, and person I have tremendous respect for in an offhanded way as Harry Dent. And the reason I like Harry Dent is Harry Dent is no bullshit. He will change his point of view if he has to change his point of view. So I don't have to worry about there being three or four Harry Dents out there.

当下只有一个真实的哈里·登特，他会如实告诉你此刻的真实想法，无论是否中听。他说'你和哈里债务一样悲观'时，我觉得这是至高赞誉。要知道，大多数人都盲目乐观，觉得股票永远涨，标普永远牛，债券最安全。

There's one Harry Dent at that moment, and he will tell you whatever he's thinking to be true for him at this moment, popular or unpopular. And I was paid the highest honor Harry that's saying, you're as pessimistic as Harry debts. I said, God, what a compliment that is. You know, it's because a lot of people, have Pollyanna, you know, all the stocks, S and P has gone up forever. Bonds are safe.

他们还说可以相信美联储银行。我就纳闷了？哈里就是这样的人，他会告诉你真实情况，不管是否合时宜。所以哈里，欢迎来到富爸爸电台节目。

You can trust the federal reserve bank. I'm going, what? And so Harry did is a man who will tell you what's going on for him. It may be popular, it may be unpopular, but he will tell you what he thinks at this moment. So Harry, welcome to the rich dad radio show.

是啊，很高兴来做客，罗伯特。

Yeah, nice to be here, Robert.

我们小时候，美国是世界上最富有的国家。如今我们成了头号债务国。还说什么'别担心，美联储可以一直印钞'，我觉得这是谎言。不知道你怎么想？但我们每两个月就要印个万亿级别的钞票。

When you and I were kids, America's the richest country in the world. Today we're the biggest debtor nation in the world. And for us to say, Oh, don't worry, the fed can keep printing, I think is a lie. I think, I don't know what you think. But we're printing what a trillion dollars every two months or something like that.

正如他们所说，那是什么定律来着？有些损失，如果注定要结束，就让它结束吧。我喜欢你的地方在于你总是紧跟最新动态，你是个人口统计学家，这意味着你会关注人口统计数据，并告诉我们你此刻的想法。而一年后，你可能会改变观点。我尊重这一点。

And as they say, is that, what's that law? Some losses, if it'll end, it'll end. So that's what I like about you is that you're up to the minute, you're a demographer, which means you look at what demographics are saying, and you will tell us what you think at this moment. And a year from now, you may change. I respect that.

所以哈利，尽管悲观吧——

So Harry, be as pessimistic as

随你喜欢。我就爱这样。听着，这里有个简单的故事。八十年代初我开始做预测时，知道我受到的最大批评是什么吗？当时我对美国（而非日本）抱有难以置信的乐观态度。

you like. I love it. Well, know, mean, here's a simple story here. When I started forecasting the early eighties, you know what I might get the greatest criticism for? I was unbelievably bullish and not on Japan back then, on The United States Of America.

我是说，日本确实崛起并抢走了我们许多传统产业，因为他们效率更高等等。但我指出：日本是全球老龄化速度最快的发达国家。他们才是会在1990年后衰落的，而我们将迎来史上最繁荣的时期。为什么？因为我们拥有当时地球上最伟大的一代——婴儿潮世代。

So do I you mean, Japan had come along and taken a lot of our older industries because they were much more efficient and all that stuff. I said, but but Japan is the fastest aging developed country in the world. They're the ones that are gonna go down after 1990, and we're gonna have the greatest boom in history. Why? We have the greatest generation ever to hit the earth called the baby boom generation back then.

现在依然是。只是他们如今年迈，不再推动经济了。但我的观点简单到不能再简单。正因为我没有经济学博士学位（经济学家们常因此批评我），我才足够单纯地说：看这个绝佳指标。我确信美国统计数据——只有美国拥有每年调查消费者的最佳统计体系。

Still is. It just now they're aging and they're no longer driving the economy. But I mean, this couldn't have been simpler. And and I and and because I didn't have a PhD in economics, which economists criticized me for, I was simple enough to say, oh, here's a good indicator. I know for certainty US statistics, and only The US has the best statistics studying consumers every year surveys.

人们平均20岁进入职场，46岁时消费达到顶峰。所以预测未来只需将出生指数前移46年，就能看到最多人处于消费高峰期的时段。简单至极。八十年代初我提出这个观点时，天哪，遭到多少反对。但他最终带着联盟胜出了。

The average person enters the workforce 20 and spends the most at 46. So all I gotta do to see the future is take the birth index and move it forward forty six years from when the highest amount of people will be spending the most money. I mean, extremely simple. Well, I started doing that in the early eighties and boy, did I get blowback. But he went out with the coalition.

所以，天啊。不，不。你们不明白。我们什么产业都保不住了。

So, oh my god. No. No. You don't understand. We're not gonna have any industries left.

日本和东亚将接管一切。我说，不。看看他们的人口结构。他们在八十年代初期和末期、九十年代初期达到顶峰后便永远地急剧下滑。而且顺便说一句，他们现在仍在持续下滑。

Japan and East Asia are gonna take them all over. I said, no. Look at their demographics. They peak in the early and late eighties, early nineties and fall off a cliff forever. And they're still falling off that cliff by the way.

就这样，

So so,

我是说，哈利，

I mean, Harry,

我学到的是，你不能只是学习。哈利。

thing I learned, you can't just learn. Harry.

你向世界介绍了一个非常重要的词汇——人口统计学。

You introduced the word world to a very important word, demography.

没错。很简单。尤其是随着年龄增长，人们的行为是可预测的。

Yeah. Simple. People do predictable things as they age in particular.

是啊。我是说，如果我在

Yeah. I mean, if I'm in

经济方面，我是想要一个五岁孩子整天尖叫、拉在尿布里、花大把钱看医生，还得熬过生育成本？还是想要一个46岁的人事业巅峰挥金如土，刚把孩子送出大学，转身又为下一代人口繁荣重复同样戏码？至于要一堆老年人？哦不。看看日本就知道了。

the economy, do I want a five year old screaming all the time and crapping in their diapers and and costing all this money and having to see doctors and then, you know, getting over the cost of the birth thing? Or do I want a 46 year old to peak their career spending the most money and just and getting just getting their kids out of college so they can turn around and do the same thing next round for the next generational boom? And boy, do I want a bunch of old people? Oh, no. Ask Japan.

日本当年异军突起短暂统治了地球。他们是最先老龄化的国家。研究人口学的我早就看清日本在玩追赶游戏。八十年代演讲时我常说：没错日本现在风光，但他们主导什么产业？钢铁。

Japan is, know, came out of nowhere, took over the earth for a short period of time. They were the ones that got old at first. And since I was studying demographics, that was obvious to me that Japan was playing a catch up game. I kept saying when I was lecturing in the eighties, hey, yes, Japan's doing great, but what industries are they taking over? Steel.

懂吗？都是老旧产业。那谁在引领高科技信息技术？个人电脑、微软软件——全是我们。谁在生产溢价定制产品？

Okay? Old industries. Okay? Who who's leading high-tech information technology, personal computers, Microsoft software, all it's us. And who's producing the customized products that go for a premium?

所以...我也不知道。

So, you know, I don't know.

我只是

I just

后来才明白的，罗伯特，因为我没学经济学。我主修过经济，但上完三门课后就觉得这学科概念模糊又无聊。没人喜欢，也学不到东西。

learned, because I didn't study economics, Robert. I had a major in economics. And after the third course, I said, this is conceptual, vague, boring. Nobody likes it. I can't even, you know, learn much from it.

我父亲最好的朋友说过：知道吗小哈利？我们最后悔没学会计金融。做生意就吃亏在这儿。营销我们懂。

And my father's best friend say, you know what? We wish we had done little Harry. They called me, they said, we wish we had studied accounting and finance. That's what kills us in business. We know how to market.

我们懂得如何管理。我们是人，普通人。只是搞不定那些该死的数字，看不懂资产负债表和损益表。所以我大学主修这个专业，但一直盯着哈佛商学院或斯坦福。我知道自己想读MBA，打算学习那些重要的市场营销管理和大局观课程。

We know how to manage. We're people, people. We just can't figure out the damn numbers, you know, and read our own balance sheets and P and L. So that's what I majored in in college, but I always had my eye on Harvard Business School or Stanford. And I knew I wanted to get an MBA and I was gonna take what I call the important marketing management, big picture stuff there.

我就是这么做的。起初主修经济学，上完第三门课后就放弃了，转而学习商业的其他所有方面。后来我在贝恩公司工作，为当时因东方和全球竞争而濒临倒闭的财富100强企业提供咨询。但大公司节奏太慢，我实在适应不了。

And that's what I did, you know? And I never I I started with a a major in in economics and quit it after that third course and and studied everything else about business. And then I worked at Bain and Company, consultant to Fortune 100 companies that were failing back then because of the eastern and global competition. And and then I I couldn't work with big companies. They were just too slow.

于是我跳出来，接手了加州一家出版公司的扭亏为盈工作。之后接连接手各种项目。小企业总是在失败——这正是它们如此高效的原因。

So I jumped off. I took a job turning around a publishing company in California. And then I just after that, I got one job after the next. All small businesses do is fail. That's why they're so productive.

顺便说，失败是成功的秘诀。

Failure, by the way, is the secret to success.

宽容 阿门，兄弟。阿门。

Tolerance Amen, brother. Amen.

这造就了企业家和最成功的人。就像埃隆·马斯克最近说的，多数人在第一次重大失败后就会放弃。我在80年代成功扭转了六家公司的困境，为许多小企业提供咨询，然后在1989年围绕自己的通讯业务创业，从此再没进过办公室。此刻我正坐在波多黎各的书房里对着电脑工作，眺望着海景，远离尘嚣——其实我也可以在林肯市或内布拉斯加。

Makes entrepreneurs and the most successful people. Because most people, as Elon Musk said recently, will quit after the first major failure. So turned around six companies difficulty in the 1980s, consulted a lot of small businesses, and then started my own business around my newsletter in 1989 and never never went to an office again. Still sitting right now in my, you know, my den doing my work on my computer in Puerto Rico, looking over the water, not close to anything. I could be in Lincoln, Nebraska, you know.

这一切自然而然就发生了。但我领悟到关键是要追寻真相——只要深挖，任何事的真相都能找到。人们总对我说：哈利，没人能那么早预测经济走势，变数太多了。

And so, you know, that just happened naturally. But I learned that the key thing is the truth. If dig hard enough, you can find the truth about anything. People kept telling me, Harry, nobody can predict the economy that far out. There's too many things that can change.

总统听着。我不在乎谁是总统。我从来不在乎谁是总统。他们在这里或那里做出一些改变。我从不依赖这个来预测。

The president look. I don't care who's president. I have never cared who's president. They make differences in some areas here and there. I've never had to rely on that to predict.

美国有三亿人口在成长，年轻时他们耗费金钱、制造麻烦，但学习迅速，进入职场后变得越来越好，生产力持续提升。这是20到46岁阶段，之后在中年至55岁左右趋于平稳，然后慢慢衰退进入退休阶段直至消亡。每个阶段都有利弊。谁投入最多资金？是50到63岁即将退休的人群。

It's 300,000,000 people in The United States growing up, costing everybody money as they're when they're and causing trouble when they're young, but learning rapidly, entering the workforce, getting better and better and better, more and more productive. That's 20 to 46, and then plateauing in the middle life into the mid fifties, and then slowly declining into retirement, and then disappearing. And all of those stages have their pros and cons. Who invest all the money? The people from 50 to 63 when they enter in a retirement.

好的。他们才是投资主力，但谁在消费？20到46岁人群。现在多数国家已延至47岁。这正是宏观经济如此可预测的原因。

Okay. They're the ones that invest the most, but who spends the money? 20 to 46. Now it's 47 in most countries. And this is what makes economy macro so predictable.

仅针对出生指数的46年滞后性（不包括其他因素），我需要根据移民情况进行调整，而我能精确做到这一点。

Forty six year lag on the birth index only, not that, is I have to adjust for immigration and I can do that accurately.

就是这样，哈利，所以我敬重你，因为你总是直言不讳。那么我的问题是：你认为美国、日本和德国接下来会怎样？我刚环球旅行回来——还记得不久之前，日德还是我们的敌国，后来变成了贸易伙伴。

It's just so So Harry, that's why I respect you because you will tell it the way it is as you call it, as you see it. So my question is, is what do you see coming for America, then Japan and Germany? Cause I was just traveling. I traveled the world and you remember not too long ago, Japan and Germany were our enemies. They became trading partners.

但如今正如你所说，德国、日本和美国的人口结构都在变化。当这三个国家的人口结构改变时，对世界意味着什么？你预见到什么趋势？

But today Germany and Japan and America, as you say, our demographics are changing. And what's that mean to the world when Germany, Japan and America's demographics change? What do you see coming?

很简单，北欧和北美在发达国家中拥有最佳人口结构。东亚地区——包括尚未成为发达国家的中国，以及韩国、日本——则面临最严峻形势。东亚人富裕后不仅生育率下降，而且是骤降。人们富裕后基本只考虑金钱、子女升学和自己赚钱。

Well, well, very simply Northern Europe and North America have, the best demographics in the developed world. East Asia, and this includes China, even though they're not a developed country yet, but Korea, Japan have the worst. Okay. When for some reason, when people in East Asia get affluent, they not only have less babies, they have a lot less babies. Everybody that gets affluent basically starts to think about money and think about their kids getting into a good school and them making money.

这意味着他们不再像三十、四十和五十年代的美好旧时光那样想要四、五、六个孩子。明白吗？他们只想生一两个孩子，然后把他们送进哈佛或斯坦福之类的名校。所以富裕实际上最终会减缓国家发展，因为孩子变少了。

And they that means they don't wanna have four, five, six kids as they did in the good old days in the thirties, forties, and fifties. Okay? They wanna have one or two kids and get them into Harvard or Stanford or whatever. Okay? And and so affluence actually eventually slows country because there's fewer kids.

所以如果你不生孩子，或者不像美国那样——虽然我们生育率下降，但移民政策强劲，澳大利亚甚至比我们更开放，新西兰也是。看澳大利亚的人口图表时，如果不知道他们和我们一样富裕（虽然稍逊一筹），我会以为那是个新兴国家。为什么？因为他们持续接收来自东亚和东南亚的移民——这些工人备受青睐，明白吗？

So if you're not having kids and or if you're not like The United States where, hey, we're having fewer kids, but we are strong on immigration and Australia is even stronger than us and New Zealand. Those kind Australia, if I looked at their charts, their demographics, and didn't know they were rich like us, not quite as rich, but neither, I would think they were an emerging country. Why? They're getting constant flow of immigration, not from South America and Mexico, from East And Southeast Asia, where everybody loves those workers. You know?

因此他们拥有高质量且数量庞大的移民。通过出生率和移民数据（我还做了移民的钟形曲线分析，罗伯特），我可以将新移民按出生年份重新分布，仿佛他们一直在这个国家。这样，那个滞后46年的生育指数就能提前近五十年预测哪些国家将迎来繁荣或衰退——加入移民因素后，这个模型更加精准。看，经济规律就这么简单。

So they've got high quality and high quantity of immigration. So between birth and immigration, and I've got a bell curve of immigrants, Robert. It took me some work on that, but I did my research and I can take the immigrants coming in country and distribute them back to when they were born as if they'd always been in that country. So so that same birthing index that I lag for forty six years and will tell me almost fifty years in advance, what's who's gonna boom the most and when and who's gonna bust and when works works even better when I can calculate an immigrant. So so that's that's how simple the economy can be.

我们稍后回来。大家好，这里是罗伯特·清崎的《富爸爸电台秀》。今天我不是从亚利桑那州斯科茨代尔，而是从德克萨斯州的盖恩斯维尔为您播报。

We'll be right back. Hello. Robert Cusack, Rich Dad Radio Show. And, today, I'm not coming to you from Scottsdale, Arizona. I'm coming from a place called Gainesville, Texas.

今天有位非常特别的嘉宾。这位可是教父级人物——里克·鲁尔。每次见到他，我都惊叹于从他身上学到的知识。他在金银矿业领域备受尊崇。

And, I'm a very special guest today. This guy is a godfather right now. His name is Rick Rule. And every time I see him, I'm in awe of how much I learned from him. And, he's extremely respected in the mining field, gold and silver.

我的温哥华合伙人马伦·卡图萨对里克推崇备至。上次见面应该是在《反叛资本家》活动上，没想到今天能在这里重逢。里克，能邀请您上《富爸爸秀》真是荣幸，非常感谢。

My partner, Maren Catoosa, out of Vancouver, speaks so highly of Rick. And I saw I last saw Rick, I think, in Rebel Capitalist, and now I meet you here. And, Rick, it's an honor to have you on the Rich Dad Show. So thank you.

这是我的荣幸，罗伯特。我是《富爸爸穷爸爸》的忠实读者。上节目前我还说，像我们这样的老家伙有责任为年轻一代做好准备——教他们应对我们留下的经济和政治经济烂摊子。感谢你向年轻人传播这些常识。

Well, my honor, Robert, I'm a huge fan, of that book, Rich Dad Poor Dad. Before we went on the air, I said I sort of think it is the obligation of old folks like you and I, to prepare the younger generation to teach them for the mess that we're leaving them, in terms of the economy, and the political economy. So thank you so much for for just talking common sense to young folks.

我们如此重视这件事的原因在于，当时我手里拿着一枚半美元硬币，它已不再是银质的，而是铜制的。就像墨西哥人说的‘Que paso’（发生了什么），他们在做什么？你明白吗？这就是格雷欣法则。

So just the reason we break this so important is I think with 65, I was holding up a half dollar, and it was no longer silver. It was copper. And as a Mexican say, Que paso, what are they doing? You know? And that was Gresham's Law.

然后在71年，我作为海军陆战队的直升机飞行员，正从越南撤离。我竟跑到敌后去买黄金，证明陆战队员确实不是地球上最聪明的人。我和副驾驶里克解除武装，高举双手穿过村庄。

And then in '71, I was flying I was a marine helicopter pilot, and we were flying out of Vietnam. And I went to buy gold behind enemy lines proving marines aren't the smartest guy on Earth. And I walked up to this little I was behind enemy lines. Rick, we disarmed my co pilot and I. We put our hands up and walked through the village.

我们说：'我们不是以军人身份来的，是作为资本家来的，只想买些黄金。'走进一个竹棚，那些人的牙齿因嚼槟榔而鲜红。他们刚取消了金本位制。

And we said, we don't come as marines. We come as capitalists. We just wanna buy some coal. And we walked up to this little bamboo shack, and those little Bethlehem is what was on their teeth were bright red because of these beetle nuts. Gold they had just taken gold off the gold standard.

金价从35涨到50，我以为能打折。结果被教训了，里克。那位女士教育我说：'现货价'。

It was going from 35 to 50. So I thought I could get a discount. And I got schooled, Rick. She schooled me. She goes, spot.

我说：'报个价'。她重复：'现货价'。那天我没买到黄金，但做蠢事确实能学到很多。后来我去香港买了第一枚南非克鲁格金币。

I went, tell a spot. And she goes, spot. So I didn't get any gold that day. But also, I'll but you learn a lot when you start doing stupid things. I went to Hong Kong and I bought my first Krugerrand from South Africa.

接着发现必须偷运回美国。你能想象吗，里克？这就是我的年代——那时美国人持有黄金还是非法的。最近从日本出境时，他们不在乎我是否携带芬太尼，

And then I found out I had to smuggle it into The States. I mean, couldn't you imagine that, Rick? I mean, that's how old I am. Said, Gold was illegal for Americans to owe. And then the last thing, Rick, I was coming out of Japan not too long ago, and they didn't care if I was carrying fentanyl.

却问我有没有带黄金。绕了这么大圈子才介绍我朋友里克·罗尔，他是我在市场信息、建议和趋势方面的智囊。欢迎来到富爸爸电台节目，彼得。

They wanted to know if I was carrying any gold. So it was a long way to introduce my friend, Rick Roll, here. He's a guy I look to, when it comes to information and advice and trends in the marketplace. So welcome to the Rich Dad Radio Show, Peter.

很高兴见到你，正如我所说。那些轶事之所以有趣，是因为其中蕴含了太多教训。黄金的普遍吸引力在于它既是交换媒介，也是价值储存手段。

Pleasure to be with you, as I say. It's, those, anecdotes are interesting because there are so many lessons there. The universal appeal of gold is a medium of exchange that's similarly a store of value.

如果你曾想快速致富，就别错过这班船。明白我的意思吗？它现在就要启航了。如果你还在存法定货币或假钱，虽然作为日本人这么说很遗憾——日本人爱存现金，他们钟爱现金。

If you ever wanted to get rich quick, don't miss this boat. Do know I mean? This it's it's shoving off right now. And if you're still saving fiat or fake money like, I hate to say this being Japanese. Japanese, they save cash, They love cash.

而我始终储存金银。当我理解尼克松的所作所为，以及约翰逊将白银从硬币中移除后，我就说：为什么要存法定假币？这成了我的觉醒时刻，我变得非常富有正是因为不存现金，而是存金银。这就是区别所在。

And I've always saved gold and silver. And I just you know, once I understood what Nixon was doing and what they took Johnson took the silver out of our coins, I said, why would you save fiat, fake money? And that was kind of my wake up call, and I've gotten very rich just because I don't save cash. I save gold and silver. And that's that's the difference.

我认为这不仅仅体现在去年黄金表现优异上。长期以来这类节目的观众总问我黄金何时会涨，我会睿智地摸着下巴说：罗伯特，我认为黄金会在二月启动。25年来复合增长率达9%。黄金具备双重属性。

I think the demonstration of that isn't just this last year where gold was done well. People on shows like this for a long time asked me when gold was going to move, and I'd scratch my chin sagely, Robert. And I'd say, well, I think gold's gonna move in the year February. It's up 9% compounded for twenty five years. Gold is two things.

黄金关乎避免缓慢变穷。如果你够激进且能承受风险，白银在牛市真正启动时往往会超越黄金；若你愿意努力投资金银矿股——尽管风险与波动性大得多，它们甚至能跑赢实物金属——正如你所说千真万确。任何看过XAU指数或金银指数图表的人都明白，当真正贵金属牛市来临时，其上涨波动性几乎地球上无出其右。

Gold is about not getting poor slowly, And if you're aggressive and if you can afford to be aggressive aggressive in silver, which tends to outpace gold when a bull market really truly gets underway, or and if you're willing to work hard and invest in the gold stocks or silver stocks, which tend to even outpace the metal, albeit with much great risk and much greater volatility, what you say is very, very, very true. Anybody who looks at the graph of the XAU or any of the gold and silver indexes understands that when you move into a real precious metals bull market, the upside volatility is unlike almost any other financial market on the planet.

完全如你所说。人如何变穷？先是缓慢地，然后突然地。反过来说也成立，虽然我不愿这么讲。

Well, it's exactly as you said. How do you get poor? Slowly at first and then suddenly. Well, it works the other way too. I hate to say this.

我要说句大不敬的话，里克。我卖出了150万美元的黄金，但我的成本价是300。懂我意思吗？而且我用现金全款买了房子。

I'm gonna say something very sacreligious, Rick. I sold 1,500,000.0 in gold, but my basis cost was 300. Right. Do you know what mean? And I paid cash for my house.

于是我走进这房子，说，我要了。我的目标存放在一个叫列支敦士登的地方，因为我不想再回到1933年他们夺走我目标的时候。

So I walked into this house, I said, I'll take it. And my goal is stored in a place called Liechtenstein because I don't wanna be in 1933 again where they take my goal.

对。

Right.

我刚走进去就说我要了，所以我付了450万。我的本金是45万。

So I just walked in and I said, I'll take so I paid 4,500,000.0. My basis is 450,000.

对。

Right.

就因为我买的时候。你的日期完全正确，是在二月。明白我的意思吗？是的。

Just because of when I bought it. And your date your date is exactly correct. It was February. Know what mean? It's Yep.

通常

Do usually

重要的一课。但我做的一件事是，我保持一份替代账户报表作为一种思维练习，自二月起，我用黄金和美元同时衡量我的收入、净资产和支出。如果你这样做，你会惊讶地发现食物和汽油有多便宜。如果你用黄金恒量来衡量的话。是的。二月份黄金价格是每盎司250到255美元。

important lesson. But one of the things I do is I maintain an alternative statement of account as a as a thought exercise, and I have since the year February, measuring my income, my net worth, and my expenses in both gold and dollars. And if you do that, what you're struck by is how cheap food is, how cheap gasoline is. If you measure it in the golden constant Yep. Price of gold was at 250, $255 an ounce in February.

你惊讶地发现，你的黄金储蓄与美元储蓄之间的价值差距如此之大。

You're astonished, by the difference in value between your gold savings and your dollar savings.

是啊。你知道吗，今天黄金价格是3400美元，而二月份才300左右。

Yeah. Today, you know, today, gold is $3,400, and in February, it was about 300.

没错。

Right.

而今天，清醒价大约是38。我记得之前才1美元左右。我们快点结束吧，我该走了。你知道骗子怎么定义吗？就是那些说这是个坑的金矿勘探者。

And then today, sober is about 38. I remember it a buck or something. And, you know, and so let's let's finish up because I'm up. It's what's the definition of a liar? It's a gold prospector saying that it's a hole.

要知道，我曾带领公司上市——带过银矿上市，后来卖给了山田公司。还在中国带过一个金矿上市，是在多伦多证券交易所挂牌的。结果呢？遇到了个中国民族主义者。

And, you know, I've taken I've taken companies public took a silver mine public, and then we sold it to Yamada. And then I took a gold mine public in China. I took it on the Toronto Stock Exchange. And guess what? A Chinese nationalist.

所以我再也不吃中餐了，懂我意思吗？但我的老友里克，我可是吃尽苦头才明白'国家'这个词的分量。我是说，如果在不尊重法治的国家做生意...对吧。

So I don't eat Chinese food anymore. You know I mean? But my Rick, I found out the hard way what the word country means. So I mean, if you don't do business in countries but don't they don't respect the rule of law. Right.

很简单，后来我带着巴伦·卡图萨在盐湖城的金矿上市，感觉好多了，毕竟是在美国本土。

You know, it's very simple. And then I took a gold mine public with Baron Catoosa in Salt Lake City, I felt a lot happier because we're on American soil. I

得看具体在美国的哪片土地上。最大的一个

need to say it depends on where on American soil. The biggest single

最深刻的一次经历

the biggest single experience

我个人在政治风险方面最深刻的经历是发现——一个破产的矿场预测蕴藏着200万盎司黄金，可悲的是，这矿场位于加利福尼亚人民共和国境内，就在加州与内华达州边界线错误的那一侧七英里处。

my single experience with political risks that I've ever had personally was discovering, a mine that went under predicts 2,000,000 ounces of gold, sadly, in the People's Republic Of California, seven miles on the wrong side of the California, Nevada line.

是啊。

Yeah.

那是一次我永生难忘的经历。实际上我在刚果受到的待遇都比这里好

And that was an experience I will never forget. I've actually personally been treated better in Congo

比加州强。基本上我认同

than California. Basically, I agree with

你对美国法治观念的看法，但我个人更愿意待在德克萨斯、怀俄明、内华达或阿拉斯加，而不是其他州。

you about the American concept of the rule of law, but I would prefer myself to be in Texas, Wyoming, Nevada, or Alaska as opposed to the other states.

这就是为什么这是农村投资会议。我喜欢你们会议的一点是那里有真实的人。你知道，没有一大堆基金经理。

Well, that's why it's the Rural Investment Conference. And the thing I loved about your conference is that you have real people there. You know, you don't have a bunch you don't have a bunch of fund managers.

能有你在场将是一种荣幸。

It'll be a pleasure to have you there.

我感到很荣幸。我是说，我真的很喜欢。太棒了。因为我曾经是布鲁克的一员，我就是那种人，你知道的，四处闲逛，和矿工们聊天之类的。

I'd be honored. I mean, I I love it. I love it. Fantastic. Because I've been I've been one of the Brooke, I was one of those guys, you know, the putzing around, talking to the miners and all this.

没什么。

Think nothing.

对。

Right.

但这就是我的学习方式——通过与矿工交谈。最后我想问你的是，现在人们都在讨论白银，你对这个怎么看？另外，据我所知，是不是黄金先涨，然后是白银，最后才是矿企？

But that's how I learned. I talked to the miners. And last thing I wanna ask you is that people are talking about silver now, your opinion on that. But also, isn't there a this is what I understand. Gold goes first, then silver, then the miners.

可能有人这么说过。但这并不是固定的先后顺序。

It may have said something like that. It's not the it's not the sequence or order of fire.

罗伯特，根据我的经验，黄金牛市引领着贵金属牛市。它们由实物黄金驱动，由恐慌性买家推动。

My experience, Robert, is that gold bull precious metals bull markets are led by gold. They're led by physical gold, and they're led by fear buyers.

是的。它们由悲观主义者推动。

Yeah. They're led by people Pessimists.

也许是悲观主义者，也许不是。只是那些不喜欢计算的人

Maybe pessimists, maybe not. Just people who are don't like the arithmetic

对。

Yeah.

以法定货币计价的证券。我就是其中之一。

Of fiat currency denominated securities. I'm one of them.

没错。我也是。

Yeah. Me too.

当势头和金条开始扩大生产商的利润空间时，大型黄金股就会紧随其后，我们已经看到了这一点。Franco、Wheaton、Agnico、Eagle，它们都在十二个月内翻了一番。在某个时间点，这种动向和势头会吸引普通投资者进入黄金领域。是的。而黄金市场如此之小，根本无法容纳这么多资金。

When the momentum and the bullion begins to expand the producers' margins, the big gold stocks move next, and we've seen that. Franco, Wheaton, Agnico, Eagle, they've all doubled in twelve months. At some point in time, that movement, that momentum attracts the generalist investor into the gold space. Yeah. And the gold space is so small, it can't accommodate the money.

当这种情况发生时，领导力将从黄金降为白银。顺便说一句，你不需要罗伯特·清崎或里克·鲁尔来告诉你何时会发生这种情况。

When that happens, leadership goes from gold to silver. And by the way, you will not need Robert Kiyosaki or Rick Rule to tell you when that happened.

本播客由富爸爸传媒网络呈现。

This podcast is a presentation of Rich Dad Media Network.