中国、印度、俄罗斯正在买入白银…安迪·谢克特曼解析其重要性

这里是富爸爸广播节目，关于金钱的好消息与坏消息。有请罗伯特·清崎。

This is the rich dad radio show, the good news and bad news about money. Here's Robert Kiyosaki.

大家好，我是罗伯特·清崎，富爸爸广播节目主持人。我们正在亚利桑那州凤凰城进行直播，这里的天气要么像伊凡要么像艾尔，但现在简直热得像地狱。虽然热得离谱，但我依然热爱居住在这里。

Hello. Robert Kiyosaki, rich dad radio show. We're broadcasting from Phoenix, Arizona where it's either Evan or Elle. And right now, it's close to hell. It's odd as hell, but, love living here.

今天的节目邀请了一位挚友。我工作中最棒的部分就是能与各领域的权威人士共事。如你们所知，多年来我一直是硬货币资产领域的坚定支持者。这里有一枚1964年的硬币，当时他们将这类小面值硬币改为铜制，这就是著名的格雷欣法则。

Today's show is with a very dear friend. One of the best things about my my job per se is I get to hang out with people who are authorities in their field. And as you some of you know is I've been a hard money asset, a hard money guy for years and years and years. And this this here is a 1964 was when they took these little quarters and they turned into copper. And it was called Gresham's law.

格雷欣法则指出，当伪币或劣币进入流通体系，良币就会退出市场。这个现象很直观——当我看到1965或64年的铜币时，立刻开始囤积真银币，淘汰假银币。这就是格雷欣法则的体现。

And Gresham's law says that when fake money or bad money enters the system, good money goes into hiding. And there's something intuitive. I don't know what else to say about it. But as soon as I saw that copper, the 1965 or '64, immediately I started saving the real silver, getting rid of the fake silver. That's Gresham's law.

众所周知，白银即将再次迎来暴涨。我记得亨特兄弟试图垄断白银市场时引发的疯狂行情。就目前而言，我认为白银是当下最值得投资的标的，至少能带来可观收益。

But today, as some of you know, silver is about to take off again. I remember it took off during the Hunt brothers when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market. And there was a frenzy going on there. But silver right now, in my opinion, is the number one investment you can make today. At least for the bonnet gains.

正如我所说，工作中最棒的就是能与像安迪·谢克曼这样的聪明人共事。今天我们将与安迪探讨贵金属交易——当我以10美元买入贵金属时，他们还会附加所谓佣金。但当你试图出售时会发生什么？最近市场上充斥着试图套现黄金白银却遭遇推诿的投资者。

And then like I said, one of the best things about my business is I get to hang out with smart guys like Andy Shekman here. So we're gonna be talking to Andy about the business of precious metals. And the reason I say that is when I buy precious metals, let's say it's $10 then they add a commission, what you wanna call it onto it. But what happens when you try and sell it? And lately you too has been filled with people trying to sell their gain, gold or silver, and they're getting run around.

大约四五年前，我从一位本地商人处购买了数十万美元的金银。当我试图回售时，他给出了史上最低报价。我终止了合作，当时将其归因于自己不懂行规。

So just about four or five years ago, I had a friend I've been buying, bought several $100,000 of gold and silver from. And when I tried to sell it to him, he gave me one of the worst price I've ever seen. And I stopped doing business with him. And he's a local guy here, but I just didn't understand the business. And I wrote it off to that.

所以我通常不卖，我是买了就永久持有。安迪从事的是贵金属、钱币这类生意。安迪，欢迎来到富爸爸电台节目，我相信你能就你的业务——关于何时卖出何时回购——给我们一些见解，好吗？

So I usually don't sell, I buy forever and hold. So Andy is in the business of precious metals, coins and things like this. So Andy, welcome to the Rich Dad Radio Show and I trust you can shed some light upon your business about when you sell when you buy back, okay?

当然，很高兴再次做客，罗伯特。见到你真好。我会尽可能保持透明。

Absolutely, it's good to be back, Robert. Nice to see you. I'd be happy to be as transparent as I can.

很好，很好。比如我花100美元买双鞋穿了一年，不可能指望原价退回。但如果我买价值100美元的白银，银价上涨时我就预期能赚更多。这就是这行的本质。那么从你这边具体怎么运作呢？

Good, good, good. So yes, if I buy a pair of shoes for a $100 and I wear it for a year, I can't expect to get a $100 back. But if I buy a $100 worth of silver and the price of silver goes up, I expect to get more money back. That's the nature of this business. So how does it work from your end?

我的意思是，客户向你购买时你显然高兴，但当有人来向你出售白银或黄金时会发生什么？

I mean, you obviously like it when people buy from you, but what happens when somebody comes in to sell their silver or gold to you?

在我从业的35年——快36年了，罗伯特——无论卖什么产品，你都会获得溢价，即超出现货价、超出熔铸价值的额外溢价。不同产品溢价幅度不同，但始终存在溢价。以银鹰币为例，我能用这个说明本质问题。假设你在2019年11月来电说要买一整盒全新的美国银鹰币，500枚一盎司装的。

So most of my career, which is thirty five years now, almost thirty six years, Robert, whatever product you would be selling, you would receive a premium, a excess premium above the spot price, above the melt value. Whatever the product was, some products would have a higher premium than others, but there was always a premium. Can use Silver Eagles as an example and I can show you what you're really getting at here using Silver Eagles. So let's just pretend that you called me November 2019 and said I'd like to buy a mint box of Silver Eagles. 500, one ounce, brand new United States silver eagles.

你会问：安迪，你卖什么价？如果我需要回购，你又出什么价？我的回答三十多年来基本一致——我会说：罗伯特，我以每枚白银现价加3.29美元卖给你，以现价加2.79美元回购。这79美分到3.29美元之间约60美分的差价就是我们的单币佣金。一盒300美元佣金，这几乎是我整个职业生涯的标准模式。

Sure. You say, Andy, what will you sell it to me for? And if I should need to sell it back, what will you buy it for? I would have said to you something like this. Now this would have been the same answer I would have given you for pretty darn well near thirty plus years.

正如我刚才说的，这种79美分到3.29美元的价差，每枚约60美分的佣金，一盒就是300美元。这几乎贯穿我的整个职业生涯，一直是标准做法。

And I would have said, sure Robert, I will sell it to you for $3.29 over the price of silver. I'll buy it back from you for $2.79 over the price of silver. That spread to 79 to $3.29, 60¢ or so would have been our commission per coin. So $300 on a mint box. That would have been for almost my entire career, that would have been standard.

现在你说，好的，我会这么做。实际上，我想要价值10万美元的。当然。这是2019年11月。

Now you say, okay. I'll do that. In fact, I wanna get a $100,000 worth. Sure. This is, November 2019.

六个月后，即2020年3月、4月、5月，疫情爆发了。安迪，疫情真的影响了我的生意。我需要卖掉那些薄荷盒。你之前说过会以高于2.79美元的价格收购。这个承诺还有效吗？

You call me back six months later, March, April, May 2020, the pandemic hit. Andy, the pandemic really affected my business. I need to sell those mint boxes. You told me that you would pay me $2.79 over. Is that still good?

我会说，不，无效了，但11美元溢价如何？因为当时白银需求激增。抱歉，对于美国银鹰币而言，六个月内溢价从比白银投标价高2.79美元飙升至超过11美元，这一水平在2020、2021、2022、2023年大部分时间维持。然后情况发生了变化，而且是实质性的改变。

I'd say no, it's not, but how about $11 over? Because the demand was so high for the price of silver. And excuse me, for for silver American Eagles that in six months, the premium went from $2.79 over bid price to over $11 over the price of silver bid price where it stood for most of the last or twenty twenty, twenty twenty one, 2022, 2023. And then things changed. They changed in a in a very substantive way.

这就将我们带到了现在的位置。至少从回顾过去的角度看，你总能获得高于现货的小幅溢价。接着疫情来袭，溢价大幅攀升。但在讨论现状前，让我们先了解这些溢价的构成。目前约有五、六家大型一级分销商。

And that's gonna get us to where we are now. So at least in terms of looking at where we were and and where we were before that, you always would receive a premium above spot, but a small one. Then came the pandemic. The premiums went much higher, but let's discuss before I get to where we are today, how those premiums are derived. Now there's about five or six massive primary distributors.

这些分销商直接与全球铸币厂和精炼厂合作。其中部分公司是上市公司，每年花费数十亿美元从南非、英国、澳大利亚、加拿大、美国和奥地利六大主要铸币厂买卖贵金属。它们的职责是为市场提供流动性，充当做市商。让我们回到疫情期间。

These are the distributors that work directly with the mints and the refineries globally. These are the companies that some of them are publicly traded. They spend billions with a bee of dollars buying and selling precious metals every year from the global mints, South Africa, United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, The United States, and Austria. The six primary mints and their job is to provide liquidity to the market, to be a market maker. So let's go back to the pandemic.

这些与美国铸币厂有协议的一级分销商，由于需求激增，会接收铸币厂提供的全部产品。当铸币厂宣布断货时，这些分销商便成为后续市场的定价者，由他们决定溢价的上浮或下调。

These primary distributors who have agreements with let's say the United States Mint, they take everything the Mint will give them because there's so much demand. The Mint says we're out of product. That's it, no more product. These primary distributors then become the market makers moving forward. They are the ones that set the premiums either to the upside or to the downside.

2020至2021年间需求如此旺盛，他们宣布：愿以高于白银价格11美元收购任何人的银鹰币，但转手就以12、13甚至14美元溢价出售。这种异常扩大的价差无法通过对冲溢价来规避，只能对冲金属含量。总之，亚利桑那州的中间商并非溢价制定者，真正的定价权掌握在他要出售给的对象——那些大型一级分销商手中。

There's so much demand in 2020 and 2021 that they say, we'll pay anyone that wants to send us their Silver Eagles $11 over the price of silver but we're selling them at 12 or 13 or 14 over. Now that spread which was much bigger than normal was big because you can't hedge the spread or the premium. You can only hedge the metal content. So anyways, first and foremost, your guy in Arizona really is not the one who sets the premium, it's whoever he's gonna sell it to. The big primary distributors.

是他们设定了溢价。当前最耐人寻味的是，或许我们身处环境中最引人注目的一点——也是为何溢价如此之低的原因——在于自2024年起，英伟达崛起，科技七巨头地位强化，加密货币与比特币需求激增，这些你已谈论多时。美国民众在疫情期间及银行业危机中态度180度大转弯，从避险转向逐险，导致贵金属市场遭遇大量抛售与冷遇，溢价因而走低。

They're the ones who set the premium. What's interesting about right now, maybe the most interesting thing about the environment we find ourselves in right now and why the premiums are so low is that really starting in 2024, we had the rise of Nvidia, the accentuation of the Mag-seven, the huge demand for cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, you've talked about that for a long time. And so the American public did this one eighty during the pandemic and the banking crisis from risk off to risk on. And we saw a lot of selling and non participation in the metals market. So the premiums went down.

但真正精彩之处在于：我们正面临极其独特的局面。美国公众尚未完全采纳你的建议，罗伯特，但他们开始觉醒。与此同时，COMEX市场正经历其有史以来最大规模的交割量。

But here's where it gets really interesting. Where we are right now is a very unique situation because you still have the American public who has yet to really take your advice, Robert. They're beginning to. They're waking up. But this is simultaneously happening when the COMEX market is experiencing the largest deliveries that they've ever had in the history of the market.

事实上，五月COMEX全球定价的交割合约创下了该交易所金银交割量的历史最高纪录。顶级资本正在要求实物交割，他们才是推高价格的力量。而公众参与度极低，贵金属配置比例微乎其微。

In fact, the May delivery contract for COMEX where the prices are set globally delivered the largest amount of gold and silver in the history of the COMEX ever, ever. The biggest money up here, they're standing for deliveries. They're the ones pushing the price higher. The public hasn't. The public has a very tiny tiny tiny if any allocation to precious metals.

里克·鲁尔指出，全美从普通民众到哈佛捐赠基金，对金属的配置比例仅0.5%。这意味着市面实物金属供应已远超经销商销售能力。随着更多人入场，买方报价正不断下探；而顶层玩家却在抽干全球交易所库存，这只是时间问题。

In fact, Rick Rule says one half of 1% across the entire United States from Joe and Jane six pack to the Harvard Endowment Fund in terms of allocation to metals. So what that means is there is more physical metal available on the street then the dealers have the ability to sell. And so as more people come in, their the bid prices are getting lower and lower and lower. At the same time, the people at the top are draining the world's exchanges. It's just a matter of time.

简而言之：2020年前溢价长期稳定，买卖价差维持在现货价上下几个百分点。但2020年后一切失控——从职业生涯未见的高溢价到当前局面。平心而论，当前全行业溢价确是我从业以来最低水平。

So, anyways, all I'm trying to simply say is this. Until 2020, premiums were almost consistent forever. You you pay a few percent over spot when you buy, you you pay you get a couple percent less, but still over the price of spot when you sell. Since 2020, everything's gone crazy. Whether it be premiums that are higher than anything I've ever seen in my career to where we are right now and in defense of this gentleman, I will say industry wide, the premiums are lower than I've ever seen ever in my career.

问题不在我们，而在于上游做市商——主要分销商。坦白说，当我接手百万美元金银时，若能直接售予客户固然好。但若我是亚利桑那州的小型钱币商，既无销售渠道也缺乏流动性，就不得不转售给同级或上级分销商。由于公众追逐利润而非效仿顶级资本进行实物交割，过剩供应压低了报价。我们正处于周期底部，待美国公众觉醒并意识到罗伯特·清崎多年前的正确建议时，全行业溢价必将反转飙升。

And it's not us, it's the people one step above us, the primary distributors that are the market makers. That's really as honest of an answer as I can give you is that when I take in a million dollars worth of gold and silver, if I can sell it to my clients, great, but if I'm a coin shop in Arizona, I may not have that ability and I may not have that liquidity. So I have to turn around and sell it to a company like me or a company above me, the primary distributor and the bid prices are gonna be lower because there's so much excess supply built up because the public has been chasing profit instead of realizing what the biggest money in the world is doing standing for physical delivery. And it's a cycle and we're at the bottom end of the cycle now, I would expect to see premiums move much higher industry wide as there's more awakening in the American public who finally start to say, you know, Robert Kiyosaki was right a long time ago, I should have been buying silver and gold. And when that happens just like that, the premiums will flip.

因此客观来看，问题更多出在他上游的收购方——他们因无法全额持有（或因对冲能力/资金限制无法囤货）而压低回购报价。

So in his defense, it's probably not him as much as it is is the players above him who are bidding for the product he will turn return because he can't hold all that product, whether it be because he can't hedge it or because he doesn't have the checkbook to pay it and leave it sitting on his shelf. That's

这个问题很现实。一个普通的小型钱币经销商能有多少定价权？因为事情是这样的，当我出售这些东西时，是我妻子发现的。她打电话给德克萨斯州奥斯汀的另一位朋友，他说，不，你被坑了。

the So real this is my question. How much power or price setting power does a average little coin dealer have? Because what happened was when I sold this stuff, it was my wife who caught it. And she called another friend out of Austin, Texas. And he says, no, you got screwed.

这就是引发我们争执的原因。我停止了与他的生意往来。但这也是我问你的原因，当那些独立经销商看到你带着绿色银盒或黄色金盒进门时，他们究竟有多大话语权？

So that's what fired us off. And I stopped doing business with him. But that's why I was asking you, how much does that independent dealer have when they see you walk in the door and you got green boxes of silver or yellow boxes of gold? Do

在大多数情况下，这就像去电影院买盒糖果和爆米花——他们吃定你了。罗伯特，大多数人缺乏你这样的老练经验。对你而言，是基于对长期合作对象的信任。而把货寄给我这样的经销商或你在奥斯汀的朋友（我知道你说的是谁，两家都是可靠的公司）则需要更多功夫。

they In see most cases, it's like going into a movie theater to buy a box of candy and and some popcorn. They got you. Most people, Robert, lack the sophistication that you have. Now on your end, was trust of someone you've worked with for a long time. Sending it into a dealer like me or your friend in Austin, who I know you're talking about, both good companies takes more effort.

你需要打包货物，通过联邦快递寄送，经历所有这些麻烦事，相比之下，直接扔到车后备箱去见街区的老伙计方便多了。但这种便利通常以不够竞争力的价格为代价。总体而言——我不想一竿子打翻一船人——但通常钱币店不具备像我这样的公司或你提到的奥斯汀那位绅士的实力，因为我们是运营数十年的老牌企业，每月经手数千万美元业务，有财力当场给你开支票，甚至能库存这些货品，因为我们能对冲风险。而本地钱币店通常没这个条件，无论是资金链还是账本。我再举个例子。

You have to box it up and have to ship it by FedEx and go through all that nonsense rather you throw it in the back of your car and go see your buddy down the street. That convenience is typically offset by less competitive pricing. In general, now I don't wanna say all of them but in general coin shops do not have the ability that a company like mine does or the gentleman that you're speaking of in Austin does because they're long established companies that are doing millions and millions and millions of dollars of business a month and have the wherewithal to be able to write you a check for that and to even be able to inventory it after that fact because they can hedge the exposure. Whereas a local coin shop typically doesn't have that luxury whether it be end of checkbook. I'll give you another example.

很多小钱币店的员工会遇到这种情况：某个像你（当然不是你本人）的人走进来说要卖货，他们会说'稍等'，然后跑到后间给我打电话：'安迪，我店里有个人想卖50万美金的金条，我吃不下这单，能锁定价格立刻转给你吗？'当然可以，尽管操作。

There are a lot of people in those little coin shops that will a guy like you, not you, but a guy like you will walk in and say, need to sell this and they'll say, okay, one second. And they'll go into the backroom and they'll call me and they'll say, Andy, I have a guy in front of my store right now that wants to sell a half a million in gold. I can't really take that responsibility. Can I lock it in and immediately sell it to you? Sure, go ahead and do it.

砰，他就这么干了。归根结底是流动性问题，罗伯特，在本地层面最核心的就是这个。所以他们的定价权没你想象的那么大。

Bang, he'll do that. They don't have the liquidity. It's all boils down to liquidity on that local level, Robert. And that's probably the biggest issue. So not as much as you would think.

好的，我们稍后回来继续探讨。就像我说的，是我妻子发现的这事，真的很遗憾，因为我从这家伙手里买过不少东西，我们现在还是朋友，但他纳闷生意怎么没了。所以今天我问你的核心问题是——等会儿回来可以解答——是否取决于像我这样的小散户找到你这样的专业人士建立长期合作？广告后我们将继续对话安迪·谢克曼，米尔斯·富兰克林公司的资深人士，他在钱币行业资历深厚，我爱他背后那张充满金银货币历史的背景图。

Okay, so we come back, we'll be going more into it about, like I said, it was my wife who caught it and it was really sad because I bought a lot from this guy and I still am still friends with him and all this, but he wondered what happened to the business. But that's why I'm asking you today is, I guess it comes down to, this is my question that we can answer when we come back. Does it depend upon an individualist, a little guy like me finding a person like you who I just do business with. When we come back, we'll be talking more to Andy Shekman, Miles Franklin, you know, he's been in the coin business forever. I love his picture behind of him is nothing but the history of gold and silver and real money.

正如摩根大通所言，黄金才是货币，其他一切皆为信用。所以我们再次回到这个问题，就像生活中任何其他事情一样，你要和谁做生意？我们马上回来。欢迎回来，罗伯特·清崎与我们的老朋友安迪·谢克曼。有些人知道，我很久以前就是金银的忠实拥趸，自从尼克松让美元脱离金本位制以来。

Or as JP Morgan says, Gold is money, everything else is credit. And so we come back again, it's like anything else in life, who do you do business with? We'll be right back. Back, Robert Kiyosaki with our longtime friend, Andy Shekman. As some of you know, I've been a gold and silver bug since a long time ago since Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard.

我买的第一枚克鲁格金币是在香港买的南非克鲁格金币，当时花了50美元，至今仍保留着。如今它价值约3500美元。是克鲁格金币变大了，还是美元的购买力下降了？这个问题留给你们回答。但关注我的人都知道，我不存美元，我存黄金、白银和比特币，因为我不想亏钱。根据我的老师巴克敏斯特·富勒的说法，货币的目的就是窃取你的财富。

I bought my first Krugerrand, a South African Krugerrand in Hong Kong and I paid $50 for it and I still have it today. And today it's worth about $3,500 So did the Krugerrand grow in size or did the dollar go down in purchasing power? I'll let you answer that question. But for those who have followed my work, I say I don't save dollars, I save gold, silver and Bitcoin because I don't wanna lose money. And the purpose of money according to my teacher Buckminster Fuller is the purpose of money was to steal your wealth.

法定货币是虚假的货币。它们通过税收和通货膨胀窃取你的财富。因此，我们视安迪·谢克曼为挚友和极其信任的人。安迪，你会说事情就这么简单吗？你必须找到一个与你投缘、值得信赖且记录良好的硬币经销商。

Fiat fake money. They steal your wealth via taxation and inflation. And so we have Andy Shechtman as a friend and somebody I trust dearly. So Andy, would you say it's as simple as that? You have to find that dealer, coin dealer that you have rapport with trust and they have a good track record.

是的，百分之百。我不想说你不应该与本地店铺建立关系，你应该，而且它们扮演着重要角色。没错，不是所有东西都容易寄送，有时你需要更即时的东西。但确实，罗伯特，在我们这个行业，这枚金币无论你从我这里、你在奥斯汀的朋友那里还是凤凰城的经销商那里买，都是一样的。

Yeah, a 100%. And I don't wanna to say that the local shops shouldn't be, you shouldn't make relationships with them, you should and they have an important role. Right. Not everything is easy to to send off and sometimes you need you're in need of something a little bit more immediate. But yes, I mean, in an industry such as ours, Robert, this gold coin is the same whether you buy it from me, your friend in Austin or the dealer in Phoenix.

在这个产品同质化的行业中，区别在于你从谁那里购买。但我认为最重要的是要明白，当你处理一种正在增值的资产，并且涉及较大金额时，能够提供即时流动性并以公平方式提供的玩家会越来越少。也许本地经销商会接下这个订单，但心里会想，看，我得马上处理掉它，我得打包。

What separates in this industry a product that is homogenous is whom you're buying it from. But I think the most important thing to understand is that when you're dealing with an asset that is appreciating in value and you're dealing with larger amounts of it, you start to have fewer and fewer players who are able to provide that immediate liquidity and provide it in a fair way. Now perhaps a local dealer would take that order, but thinks to him or herself, you know, look. I'm gonna have to offload this immediately. I'm gonna have to box it up.

我得把它寄给那个经销商，无论他们在哪里，才能拿到钱。我会几天拿不到钱，因为我刚给了罗伯特一张支票，现在我得迅速转身把东西寄出去，这需要时间、精力和金钱。所以我得从中赚点什么。他们基本上就是这么想的。

I'm gonna have to ship it to that dealer wherever they may be in order to get paid. I'm gonna be out the money for several days because I just gave Robert a check, and now I have to quickly turn around and get this shipped off, and that's gonna take time and effort and money. So I'm gonna make something for that. That's pretty much the way that they would feel.

这很有道理。

That makes sense.

把货退给我，这不过是我们常规操作的一部分。风险对冲了，交易完成了，就这么简单。那位币商可能会打电话让我接手这笔订单，因为他/她心里清楚。

Sending it back to me, well, that's just part of what we do. It's hedged. It's done. Boom. I would be the person that that coin dealer may call to offload the responsibility of that order on because he or she would know.

事实上，有些合作对象我甚至会直接电汇款项——虽然这不是最精明的商业决策。但如果那位币商是我的老友，长期合作值得信赖，他说'安迪，我这儿有个客户急需50万美金，能帮个忙吗？'，我会立刻答复'没问题，马上转账，你随后把货发来就行'。

In fact, there are people that I work with that I will wire them the money, and this isn't the smartest business decision. But if that coin dealer was my friend and someone who I've trusted and worked with for a long time, he says, Andy, I got this guy in my lobby. He needs he needs a half a million bucks, can you help me? Sure, I'll wire you right now. You just send me the medal immediately.

没错，我愿意预先垫付这50万，免得对方账户三天内空空如也——因为我确信他会如期还款。这虽非最优商业策略，却正体现了我们这个行业人际关系的重要性，也是为何我不会轻易动怒的原因。以JM Bullion为例（绝非揭短），这家全美最知名、最受尊敬的行业巨头...

Okay, fine. So I will front wire the guy the half a million so he doesn't go three days with no money in his checkbook because I know that he'll send me that money. That's not the smartest business decision but that's why relationships are so important in the industry on my side and why I wouldn't be so angry. Now without knowing the facts, I can tell you you can look as an example, and this is not outing anyone. JM Bullion, who is one of the most well known companies in America, one of the most well respected.

我对他们只有赞誉。现在查看他们公布的回收价会让你明白当前行情有多低迷。JM Bullion隶属全球最大分销商之一，登录官网点击'在线出售'，比如查看一盎司美国鹰扬金币的报价...

I have nothing but good things to say about them. I'm gonna just look at something because they published their buyback prices. And just to give you an idea of how low prices are right now, JM Bullion is owned by one of the largest distributors in the in The United States. In fact, in the world. And if we go to their website and hit sell to us and sell to us online, we can look at, for example, American Eagles.

随机年份的一盎司鹰扬金币，他们出价3285美元——这比金价低了整整50美元！我从业以来从未见过这种情况。当然我的报价会更高些，绝非贬低JM Bullion。

One ounce Gold Eagles, they're bidding random years 3285. That's $50 behind the price of gold. I've never seen that in my career. Never. Now I would be higher than that, and I'm not disparaging JM Bullen.

实际上我认为他们是优质企业，必须强调这点。但他们公布的收购价确实比现货价低50美元——这打破了我整个职业生涯的认知。

In fact, I think they're a fine company. Want everyone to know that. They are. But they published their bid prices. They're $50 back to spot my entire career.

放在过去，这类交易起码有2-3%的溢价。疫情期间因供需关系，溢价甚至高达200美元。如今在我看来，当公众错失实体黄金转投英伟达等风险资产时，全球交易所正被最精明的交易者抽干流动性——这终将引发连锁反应，也解释了为何掌握核心信息的资本总能领先大众一步。

You would have gotten north of two or 3% over spot for those. And during the pandemic, as high as $200 over the price of gold based upon supply and demand. Now I look at this as a contrarian indicator where the public is missing the boat on physical moving into risk on assets like Nvidia at the same time that the world's exchanges from London to The United States and even Shanghai are being bled dry by the most well informed and sophisticated traders in the world. That will pull its way down eventually. But this is why the big money who understands things, who's in the information closest to it, is always ahead of the crowd.

如你所见，这些市场参与者比下方的零售市场领先了一、二、三、四步。但这种情况变化极快。我想我将成为唯一为这位先生辩护的声音——在不知晓任何事实的情况下。我只是说，溢价，我从未见过像JM Bullion这样信誉良好的公司给出如此低的报价，他们再次站在了行业最前沿。

And if you can see, these these players are one, two, three, four steps ahead of the retail market down here. But that had changed very quickly. And I guess I'm gonna be the lone voice of defense for this gentleman not knowing that the any of the facts. I'm simply saying premiums, I've never seen them this low ever, especially by a reputable company like JM Bullion who who again is at the tip of the spear.

这是我的问题，因为这才是大家真正想知道的。几乎从不卖出，你知道，我只储蓄不交易。我是投资者而非交易者，所以不会频繁进出市场。

This is my question because what people everybody wants to know really. It's like, almost never sell. You know, I save and I don't sell. I'm an investor, not a trader. So I'm not in and out of the market.

但白银终于再次起飞了。你对白银的预测、展望、乐观或悲观看法是什么？我热爱白银，因为它是工业金属。正如你常说的，它在军事战略上至关重要。

But silver is finally taking off again. What is your prognosis, your forecast, your optimism, your pessimism on silver? Because I love silver because silver is an industrial metal. It's used as you always talk about strategically for the military.

是的。

Yes.

它会爆炸、消散不见，而黄金永远存在。正因白银正在消失，我才更爱它。每辆电动车都含银，所有电子设备都有白银。你对白银的预测如何？

And it goes boom and blows up and disappears. Whereas gold is always here. So I love silver because it's disappearing. Every EV has it, all electronics have silver in it. What is your forecast on silver?

我想现在大约是每盎司35美元，姑且这么说。

I think today it's about a 35 an ounce, let's say.

没错，甚至更高。目前超过36美元，实时报价36.6美元。前几天还触及过37美元。

Yeah. It's even a little higher. It's above 36 right now. It is a $36.60 as we speak. It touched 37 the other day.

这是历史上第三次达到如此高位。自2011年2月以来，曾有七次尝试突破35点均告失败。这是首次成功。若六月份收盘能站稳35点上方，意义将极其重大。

It's the highest third it's the third time in history that it's been this high. There's been seven attempts to break 35 since 02/2011. They've all failed. This is the first that hasn't. If it closes the month of June above 35, it's incredibly significant.

我相信届时对冲基金会蜂拥入场。从技术分析角度看，这是重大突破。我们已看到周线收盘站上该点位，甚至突破36点。考虑到即将公布的非农就业数据和几周后可能维持利率不变的美联储决议——这些重大事件都将直接影响月底行情走势。

I believe you'll get the hedge funds jumping in at that point. From a technical standpoint, that's huge. We've seen the weekly close above it, in fact above 36. With all of the Fed announcements like the non farm payroll and the interest rate announcement that's coming up in a couple of weeks where they're thought to probably thinking of keeping the rates where they are. These are all big things leading up to the end of the month.

我们希望看到收盘价站稳35或36点上方。但归根结底，罗伯特，我脑海中只浮现一个词：不对称。这里的'不对称'意味着极低的下行风险和惊人的上行潜力。能同时具备这两点的资产凤毛麟角。就像当初100美元一枚的比特币，后视镜里看也是低风险高回报的典范。

We wanna see it close above 35 or 36. But ultimately, the only word that comes to my mind, Robert, is asymmetric. Asymmetrical in the in this respect means super low downside and amazingly high upside. There aren't many assets that you can say that about. You could have said that about Bitcoin when it was a $100 a coin, very low downside, amazing upside looking back at it in retrospect.

所以我认为这就是白银当前的处境。

So, but I think that's where we are with silver right now.

我青睐白银是因为我在与政府对赌。说白了，我不信任美联储。虽然我喜欢特朗普，但他们真能遏制通胀吗？我看未必。黄金白银本质上就是对冲通胀的工具。

The reason I like silver is I'm betting against the government. In other words, I don't trust the Fed. I don't trust, you know, like I like Trump but can they stop inflation? Don't think so. So gold, silver are really nothing to do with anything else but inflation.

没错。

That's right.

通胀来势汹汹。

Inflation attacks.

这是对我们货币政策愚蠢性和财政政策不负责任性的对冲。完全正确。今年美元贬值9%，白银上涨超过40%。在这样的环境下，你购买金银不是为了致富，而是因为它本身就是财富。如果你持有足够多，没错，从这个意义上讲你就是富有的。

It's a hedge against the stupidity of our monetary policy and the irresponsibility of our fiscal policy. That's exactly right. The dollars down 9% this year, silver is up over 40%. And so it's an environment where you're not buying gold and silver to become wealthy, you're buying it because it is wealth. If you own enough of it, yes, in those terms you would be wealthy.

但我认为这是非常非常重要的理解。我要归功于你——这句话我说过上千次——你从巴克敏斯特·富勒那里学到：你无法避开你从未预见的事物。这正是当前的大问题。人们没有看到美元即将面临的问题。去美元化趋势持续发展，这将引发一系列其他问题。

But I think this is something that's very very important to understand. You're the one who I credit with, I've said this comment a thousand times, you learn from Buckminster Fuller, you can't get out of the way of what you never see coming. And that's a very big problem here. People don't see the problem with the dollar that is coming. The dedollarization trend is continuing, and that leads to a whole slew of other problems.

与此同时，国债需求下降导致利率上升，进而造成经济放缓，引发各种其他问题。但当我观察白银市场时，发现了一些非常有趣的现象。伦敦金银市场协会（LBMA）实行T+1结算制度，即交易日后一天应完成交割，金属应在第三天送达或转运。但LBMA现在表示，由于交割请求积压，需要八周时间。

At the same time, the treasury demand is falling, which leads to higher interest rates, which leads to a slowing economy, which leads to all sorts of other problems. But when I look at silver, I see some very interesting things. I see the LBMA, London Bullion Metals Association, which is a T plus one settlement system. Meaning T is a trade day plus one to settle, your metal should be delivered to you or moving on the third day. The LBMA says, no, we're so backed up with delivery requests, it's eight weeks.

真的吗？当我预期金属在五个工作日内送达时，现在却要T+八周？他们

Really? T plus eight weeks when I'm expecting my metal in three days out of five They

无法交割，他们八周内都无法完成交割。

can't deliver, they cannot deliver from eight weeks.

想象一下，如果你拥有清崎珠宝帝国，在全球制造珠宝，从伦敦采购金银条，以便随时能在三天内将金属运往精炼厂进行加工。罗伯特，我很抱歉，现在要八周——因为英格兰银行说卡车和人力不足。真的吗？英格兰银行居然没有足够的卡车来运输我的金银？

For eight weeks, imagine you own the Kiyosaki jewelry empire and you're making jewelry all around the world and you source gold and silver bars in London so that when you need to fabricate your metal at the call of a stop of a hat in three days, your metal's moving to your to your refinery where you're making this stuff. Robert, I'm so sorry, man. We're at eight weeks because the Bank of England says there's not enough in the way of trucks or manpower. Really? The Bank of England doesn't have enough trucks to move my gold and silver.

这是个问题。这就是违约。或者看看美国，COMEX历史上最大规模的白银交割发生在五月。再看看中国——世界第二大白银生产国——直接从秘鲁矿商手中购买所谓的粗银和精矿，完全绕过了市场中间环节。

That's a problem. That's a default. Or whether we're seeing in The United States where the largest single delivery of silver ever in the history of the COMEX happened in May. Or whether we're seeing China, which is the second largest producer of silver in the world, literally buying silver from all the miners directly in Peru, which disintermediates the marketplace. They're buying what's called dore and concentrate.

矿石是矿工们粗炼制成的金属块，纯度大约只有30%到40%，然后会被送往精炼厂提纯。而精矿则是这一过程中产生的泥浆状液态副产品。他们正在秘鲁直接从矿工手中收购所有这些原料，然后运回中国精炼。他们支付的价钱是西方国家的两倍，但这种囤积行为完全不透明。他们到底买了多少？

Dore are the bars the miners make that are crudely refined, maybe 30 or 40% before they send them to a refiner to be purified. And concentrate is a sludge liquid sludge byproduct of that. They're buying all of that stuff in Peru right from the miners and then sending it back to China to be refined. They're paying double what the West will pay, but the this accumulation is totally opaque. How much did they buy?

这对价格有什么影响？对供应量有何影响？没人知道。但这些都来自世界第二大白银生产国。他们为何要这样做？为什么印度在过去五年购买了超过9亿盎司白银，比伦敦金银市场协会同期总购买量还多？现在俄罗斯又出于国家战略目的在囤积白银，成为首个公开宣称这一意图的国家。

What effect does it have on the price? On the supply, nobody knows. But this is coming from the second largest producer of silver in the world. Why are they doing this? Why has India bought over 900,000,000 ounces in the last five years, more than the LBMA has in total they've bought in the last five years, and now Russia accumulating it for strategic purposes by the state, the first country to say that.

其实过去一两年我们交谈时，这些现象就已经出现了。但值得庆幸的是，如今特朗普政府内部终于有人清醒地意识到——如果我们不效仿其他国家的做法，麻烦就大了。大量黄金白银涌入COMEX要求实物交割，这与我们以往见过的任何情况都截然不同。这说明最高层那些预知未来动向的人，正选择将实物牢牢掌握在自己手中，而不是继续参与伦敦或美国的纸质合约游戏。单凭这种异常的大规模囤积行为——就像凤凰城七月下五英尺厚的雪一样反常——就足以说明问题。

Well, all of these things were happening when you and I were talking over the last year or two, but now someone within the Trump administration, thank goodness, is wise enough, I believe, to have said, listen. If we don't start doing what the rest of the world is doing, we're in trouble. And this huge rush of of of both gold and silver into the COMEX, which is standing for delivery, which is way different than anything we've ever seen, goes to tell you that the people at the highest level who know what's coming are favoring physical possession in their own hands rather than playing the game of paper long contract either in London or The United States. So just by that very fact that these people are are accumulating this much, which is an anomaly, it's five feet of snow in Phoenix in July. This doesn't happen.

这种现象正在发生，它向所有人昭示：你长期预言的种种情况正在最高层面逐渐显现。遗憾的是，根据你的经验，零售层面仍落后一两个周期。许多本地钱币店的零售客户上门说：'我要卖掉金银来支付餐桌上的食物'——当前信用卡债务创历史新高，储蓄率却是有史以来最低。或者有人说：'既然金银价格高企，我打算套现'。可悲的是，这些商店目前根本没有足够的定价权来提供理想的收购价。

It's happening and that should tell everyone that all the things that you've been talking about for a very long time are now starting to manifest at the highest levels. And unfortunately to your experience, we're still a rotation or two behind that level down here at the retail level. So a lot of these retail, especially local coin shops, they've gotten a lot of people that come in and say, look, I need to sell maybe to put food on the table at record high credit card debt and lowest savings rates in forever. Or maybe I just need that because gold and silver are high, I'm gonna get out. And these people, unfortunately, these shops just don't have the pricing power to be as competitive as you might like at this point.

我现在为你提供流动性。但当需求激增、人人抢购时，情况可能瞬息万变。没错，他们会回购转手获利，届时你能获得的溢价会高得多。在我看来，你只是不幸成为时机选择的受害者罢了。

I'm providing you a liquidity. That may change very quickly when the demand will shoot and everyone's buying. Yeah, sure. They'll buy it back and turn around and sell it at a profit and that premium that you'll get will be much better. Unfortunately, you are just a victim of timing in my opinion, more than So

迈尔斯·富兰克林，我想问你：你会和我这样的小客户做生意吗？

this is my question to you, Myles Franklin. Do you do business with little guys like me?

当然，我们与每位客户都有业务往来，无论你是买卖100美元还是5000万美元的交易，这对我们非常重要。我的一些顶级客户最初交易额都很小。是的，我们乐意与任何规模的客户合作，并保持高度透明。我们的目标就是解释这些现象，帮助人们更好地理解市场。

Well, yes, we do business with every person, whether you're selling or buying a $100 worth or $50,000,000 worth anywhere in between and that's very important to us. Some of my best clients started out as my smallest. And so yes, we do. We are happy to work with anyone of any size and be very transparent about it. And that's what our goal is to explain this kind of stuff so people have a better understanding.

高端市场自成一体。过去仅关乎生产与铸造——美国造币厂将被称为坯饼的金属圆片变成这样精美的硬币，装管入盒再发货，成本几何？如今还需叠加供需关系考量。目前零售层面供大于求。

Premium is a market onto its own. It used to be only about production and fabrication. How much does it cost the US Mint to turn blank disc called a planchet into a beautiful coin like this, put it into tubes and boxes and send them out? Now it's about that plus the demand versus the supply. Right now on the retail level, there's greater supply than demand.

2020至2024年间情况完全相反。当下只是周期使然，我认为局面即将转变。

There was the polar opposite from 2020 to 2024. So it's just a cycle that we're in right now that I think will change.

感谢你老友，也感谢分享真知灼见。这里是Miles Franklin公司，你们总部设在佛罗里达对吧？

Well, thank you my friend and I thank you for sharing your wisdom. Is Miles Franklin. You guys are located in Florida.

我们在佛罗里达和明尼苏达都有据点，别因此嫌弃我们。明尼苏达曾是我无比自豪的故乡，是绝佳的成长之地。如需获取全美最优报价单（因故未公开，改日节目我会详述），请发邮件至info@milesfranklin.com，务必注明通过本节目获悉。

We're in Florida and in Minnesota, don't hold that against us. It used to be a place I was very, very proud of. Was a great place to grow up. And for anyone who would like our price list, which will be as good or better than anywhere in America, which we don't publish for various reasons, which I'll do a show on someday and explain that, info,info,@milesFranklin.com. Please say you saw me on this show.

我们将无义务解答任何咨询，或直接发送全美最具竞争力的报价单。若需了解收购价也请告知，我们同样乐意效劳。Robert，与你交谈总是荣幸，我视你为挚友，每次上节目都倍感兴奋。

We will answer any questions with no obligation or just send you our price list, which will be as good or better than anywhere. And if you want to find out bid prices, let us know. We'll be happy to do that for you as well. But Robert, it's always an honor. I consider you a friend and I always am excited to come on and chat with you.

希望观众有所收获，见到你总是欣喜，期待不久后再次相聚。

So I hope the people got something out of this and it was just great to see you and hope to do it again sometime real soon.

我们会持续合作，因为此刻正是黄金白银的机遇期。我认为美元已深陷危机。

Well, we'll keep doing it because this is the time for gold and silver. And I think the dollars in serious trouble.

希望一路上的人们都听到了你的声音。你为唤醒世人做的比这世上大多数人都多。我个人对此深表感谢。我经常听到人们告诉我，他们多么感激你所做的一切让他们睁开了眼睛。

Hope people along the way have listened to you. You've done more than most people in this world have to open people's eyes. I for one thank you for it. I get it all the time. People telling me how much they appreciate what you've done to open their eyes.

所以感谢这次让我也能略尽绵力。我期待着我们能很快继续未完的对话，希望不会太久。

So thanks for letting me be just a little part of it this time. And I'll look forward to picking up where we left off hopefully not too far down the road.

好的，我的朋友。我要再次感谢安迪·谢克曼。还有迈尔斯·富兰克林公司（MILES FRANKLIN），请去查看他们的报价单。安迪，我们街区见。

Okay, my friend. So I wanna thank Andy Shekman. Again, Miles Franklin, M I L E S F R A N K L I N. Please check them out, get the price list. And Andy, we'll see you on the block sometime.

上帝保佑你，我的朋友。保重，罗伯特。

God bless my friend. Take care, Robert.

现在请听富爸爸的最后一句话。欢迎回来，罗伯特·清崎。我要再次感谢迈尔斯·富兰克林的安迪·希克曼。实际上我和全球许多钱币商都有业务往来。多年来我一直强调：我不储蓄法定纸币，我储蓄真正的钱。

And we come back with a final word from Rich Dad. Welcome back, Robert Kiyosaki. I wanna thank Andy Schickman again from Miles Franklin. And I do business with a lot of coin sellers all throughout the world actually. And because for years and years and years, I've been saying, I don't save Fiat dollars, I save money.

今年，当我还是个孩子时，1965年看到铜币和银币的变化，我就知道政府在欺骗我们。1971年尼克松让美元脱离金本位后，他们开始疯狂印钞。正如我多年所言，当这样滥发厕纸般的货币时，富人更富因为他们持有资产，而穷人和中产却因通货膨胀连鸡蛋牛奶都买不起而更穷。若你储蓄这种假钱，你将陷入大麻烦。

And this year, when I was a kid, when I saw the copper in 1965 and the silver, I knew the government was screwing us. And then in 1971, Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard and they started printing like crazy. And as I've said for years, when they print toilet paper like this, the rich get richer because the rich have assets. But the poor and middle class get poor because inflation all also has chicken, eggs and milk. So when you print this fake money like this and you save fake money like this, you're in serious trouble.

重申，富爸爸不做投资推荐。我们是教育机构，我不从中收取佣金。只希望你能成为更精明的投资者，保护家人——因为这些是假钱，而真正的财富存在于金银之中。感谢收听《富爸爸电台秀》，现在请务必保持警惕。

Again, Rich Dad makes no recommendations. We're an education company. I make no commissions on any of this. I just want you to be a smarter investor and protect your family because this is fake and there's real money out there in gold and silver. Thank you for watching the Rich Dad Radio Show and I'll be very careful right now.

这是非常险恶的时期。谢谢。

It's very treacherous times. Thank you.

本播客由富爸爸媒体网络呈现。

This podcast is a presentation of Rich Dad Media Network.