大萧条已然降临

这里是富爸爸电台节目，关于金钱的好消息与坏消息。我是罗伯特·清崎。大家好，这里是罗伯特·清崎主持的富爸爸电台节目。我们正在亚利桑那州凤凰城进行直播，这里要么是天堂要么是地狱，但最近却一直阴雨绵绵。

This is the rich dad radio show, the good news and bad news about money. Here's Robert Kiyosaki. Hello. Robert Kiyosaki, rich dad radio show. We're broadcasting from Phoenix, Arizona, where it's either heaven or hell, but lately has been wet.

我从未见过如此大的降雨量。实际上有人因山洪暴发而丧生。所以现在正是亚利桑那州凤凰城一年中特别的时节。我们的老朋友道格·凯西，他和我常在各地演讲，但我们终于与道格面对面相聚了。

I haven't seen so much water come down. People actually died in flash floods. So it's an interesting time of year in Phoenix, Arizona. Our friend is longtime friend, Doug Casey. He and I, talk at different places, but we finally met Doug.

我想应该是在坎昆的Nomad Capitalist展会上，或是类似场合，我们终于得以当面交流。

I think it was at the Nomad Capitalist Show in Cancun or something like that where we went face to face.

我想你说得对。我记得那是在新冠疫情最恐慌的时期对吧？总之，

I think you're right. I I think that was during the great COVID hysteria, wasn't it? Anyway,

最终能面对面交流真是太好了。顺便说一句，道格很有眼光地选择在阿根廷、乌拉圭和美国生活。因此他对世界有着独特的见解。我正在帮他宣传这本新书《准备阶段》。我答应要帮他推广这本书。

it was good good to go face to face finally, but now we and then, by the way, Doug has a good sense to live in Argentina and Uruguay and America. So he has a unique perspective on the world. And I'm helping him help. This is his latest book here called The Preparation. And I told him I would help plug the book.

道格，我觉得这本书应该叫《成为财富冒险家的准备》。不，因为道格，你我都是财富冒险家。我们自食其力。而如今，我看到有些年轻人紧握着他们的401k退休账户，躲在父母地下室打电子游戏。

Doug, I think the name of this book should be called the preparation to be a soldier of fortune. No. It's because, Doug, you and I are soldiers of fortune. You know, we eat we eat what we kill. And today, meet I meet young men who are holding on to their four zero one k, sitting in mommy and daddy's basement, playing video games.

这本《准备阶段》就是为他们写的，我认为他们应该走出去，成为财富冒险家，因为外面的世界广阔而精彩。知道吗？我上周刚去过津巴布韦，伙计，太刺激了。我记得你也去过对吧？

And this book, the preparation was written for them because I think they should go and go out in the world and become a soldier of fortune because it's a big exciting world out there. You know? Was just in Zimbabwe last week. Man, it's exciting. And I think wasn't it you?

正是像你这样的人说过，如果你25岁，你会搬到非洲之类的地方，因为

Was somebody like you who said, if you were 25 years old, you'd move to Africa or something like this because

这其实是我长期以来一直在说的一件事，因为我喜欢被尊重。我不喜欢在被尊重时处于公平竞争的环境。我喜欢竞争环境向我倾斜。而非洲就是这样一个地方，如果你是美国人，他们会对与你交谈非常感兴趣。我发现，在许多国家，一两周内你就能与总统坐下来交谈。

That's that's one thing I've been saying for a long time, actually, because, I like to get honored. I don't like to be on a level playing field when I'm honored. I like it when the playing field is tilted in my direction. And Africa is that place where if you're, if you're an American, they're very interested in talking to you. And I found in lots of countries that within a week or two, you can be sitting down with the president.

你只需要有一些合理的话题与他交流。所以机会很多，因为你比当地人拥有更多的资源、人脉、资本和专业知识。所以，如果你是一个年轻人，看看非洲，这可能是双赢的局面。但我想这也是我写这本书的原因之一。书中的内容正是我们试图告诉年轻人的——他们不应该浪费四年时间和一大笔钱去大学，在一个污浊的环境中被灌输病态的思想，而应该利用这段时间学习技能，实际上，把自己培养成一个文艺复兴式的全才。

You just have some you just have to have something reasonable to talk to him about. So lots of opportunities because you have more collection more connections, more capital, more expertise, than the locals do. So it can be a win win situation if you're a young man and you look at Africa. But I guess that's one of the reasons I wrote the book. It's in the book, what we're trying to do is tell young men why they should not misallocate four years of their time and a whole bunch of money to go to college and be indoctrinated with absolutely sick ideas in a cesspool and use that time to pick up skills and, in effect, turn themselves into a renaissance man.

是的，我称之为幸运。你可以去任何你想去的地方，做任何你想做的事，随心所欲。明白吗？

Yeah. I I call this a fortune. You can just go where you wanna go and do what you wanna do wherever you wanna do it. You know?

完全正确。如果你按照我们在《准备》一书中制定的计划行事，你应该能够空降到刚果，然后在一段时间后快乐、健康且富有地离开那里。是的，生活就应该这样过。

Exactly. Yeah. So that by the time you if you follow the plan that we lay out in the preparation, you should be able to be airdropped in The Congo and walk out of there, happy, healthy, and rich, you know, after a period of time. Yep. And that's the way life ought to be lived.

所以，如果你住在母亲的地下室，是个25岁以下的男性，还指望你的401k养老计划养活你，我会立刻买这本书，因为你非常需要它。书名叫《准备》。你最好走出去，进入这个世界。这是个精彩绝伦的世界，刺激极了。

So if you're living in a mother's basement and you're a male under 25, and you're hoping your four zero one k keeps you alive, I would get this book immediately because you need it badly. It's called the Preparate. You You better get out there into this world. It's a fabulous world. It's exciting as hell.

嗯，和你聊天总是很有趣，罗伯特，因为我知道你刚从津巴布韦回来。而下下周，我要去阿塞拜疆。

Well, is. It's always fun talking to you, Robert, because I know you just came back from Zimbabwe. And, the week after next, I'm going to Azerbaijan,

这是

which is

另一个鲜有人涉足甚至知晓的国家。

another country that few people have been to or even know about.

然后你住在阿根廷，那里有美丽的女人和精美的皮具。是的，是的。高乔人和所有那些都令人难以置信。

It's and then you you live in Argentina, which is just beautiful women and beautiful leather goods. Yeah. Yeah. Gauchos and all that are just incredible.

这是个很棒的国家。

It's a great it's a great country.

它是

It's

面积几乎相当于美国的一半，但只有4000万人口。而且，这是一个广阔的国家。就像古老的西部，从南部的冰川到安第斯山脉再到海滩。这是个很棒的地方。

it's almost half the size of The US, but there's only 40,000,000 people. And, it's a wide open country. It's it's like the, Old West, from the glaciers in the South to the Andes to the the beaches. It's a great place.

是的。所以看看这本书。准备阶段被称为成为雇佣兵。你可以去像阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯这样的城市，那里非常美丽。就像一座欧洲城市被放在了南美洲。

Yeah. So get this book here. The preparation is called become a soldier of fortune. You can go to a city like Buenos Aires, Argentina, which is so gorgeous. It's it's like a European city dropped in South America.

呃，怎么说呢，我去过辛辛那提一次，你知道的。我是说，哎呀，饶了我吧。是啊。我遇到一些美国男人，他们坐在地下室打电子游戏，指望他们的401k养老金能管用。这到底是怎么回事？

And it's and so well, I've been to Cincinnati once, you know. I mean, gee, give me a break. Yeah. I I meet I meet I meet some of the American men who sit in the basement playing video games, hoping their four zero one k works. What is wrong with?

这个嘛，我不清楚。他们表现得像盆栽植物一样，而人类表现得像盆栽可不是什么好的生存策略，尤其是在我们即将面临的这种时代。罗伯特，我在想，查理·柯克遇刺案是否像1963年肯尼迪遇刺案那样，成为了一个转折点。很可能是。

Well, I don't know. They're acting like houseplants, and acting like a houseplant is not a good survival strategy for a human, especially not in the kind of times that we're headed into right now. And I'm I'm wondering, Robert, whether the, assassination of Charlie Kirk is one of those tipping points, much like the assassination of JFK was back in 1963. It might be.

这正是我想问你的问题之一。作为一个身处南美洲观察我们国家的美国人，你看到了什么？那边现在是什么情况？

And that's one of those questions I was gonna ask you. As an American sitting in South America looking into our country, what do you see? What's going on in?

我很不愿意这么说，因为我爱美国。这是个独特的国家，是世界历史上唯一建立在言论自由、思想自由和市场自由原则上的国家。但我担心它已经腐败堕落了。我认为我们将迎来我称之为'大萧条时期'的困境。

I I hate to say it because I love America. It's a unique country. It's the only country in world history that was founded on the principles of free speech and free minds and free markets. But I'm afraid that it's become corrupt and degraded. And, I think we're in for something I call the greater depression.

是的。这段时期大多数人的生活水平会显著下降。而且我认为这将比1929年到1946年那次更严重、更漫长。没错，而且更糟糕。

Yeah. A period of time when most people's standard of living, drops significantly. And I think it's gonna be, much different and much longer, than what we had, from 1929 to 1946. Yep. And worse also.

所以我们正在朝那个方向发展，要知道，既然你我现在算是这代人里的长者了，你为此做了哪些准备？或者说你会建议人们如何准备？如果你存美元，可美国现在像当年的津巴布韦一样每年印2万亿。是啊，为什么要存美元呢？

And so we're going in that direction, you know, since you and I are now the senior citizens of, this this generation, How are you prepared for it? I mean, or what would you recommend a person prepare for it? You know, if you save the dollar, America is printing 2,000,000,000,000 a year like Zimbabwe was. Yep. Why would you save the dollar?

听着，存美元是疯了，但你必须要储蓄。重要的是产出要大于消费，并把差额存起来。但该存什么呢？美元肯定不能存。

It look. It's crazy to save the dollar, but you have to save. It's important to produce more than you consume and save the difference. But what do you save it in? Can't save dollars.

这些都是烫手山芋。一个破产政府根本不会承认欠你什么。所以我一直把金银当作储蓄工具。我最初以每盎司约40美元的价格买入黄金，至今一盎司都没卖出过。所以我仍然持有全部黄金和大量白银。

They're hot potatoes. It's an I owe you nothing on the part of a bankrupt government. So I've used gold and silver as savings vehicles forever. So I bought my first gold at around $40 an ounce, and I've never sold, an ounce. So I still have it all and lots of silver.

我不愿建议人们现在购买黄金，因为以前黄金显然比其他所有资产都被低估。现在在我看来，黄金相对于汽车、房子、衣服的价格已基本合理。我认为它可能因各种原因再涨十倍，但并非因为当前价格过低。问题是——你现在该用什么来储蓄？

I hate to, advise people to buy gold now because before, it was obviously depressed relative to everything else. Now it seems to me gold is more or less where it should be relative to cars, houses, clothes. I I think it could go 10 to one from here for different reasons, but not because it's underpriced. But, you have to save. The problem is what do you save in now?

我认为这是人类前所未遇的困境。白银仍相对被低估，价格还会上涨。

It's a tougher situation than people have ever been in before, I think. I think Spohner is still relatively underpriced. It's going higher.

没错。这也印证了巴菲特的警告，正是我所担忧的。他说婴儿潮一代最可怕的噩梦，就是他们401k账户将遭遇通胀侵蚀。无论他们401k里有多少钱——毕竟我们现在财政赤字高达两万亿美元...

Yeah. And then you would what Buffett's been saying, which is a concern that I have. He says the worst thing that's gonna hit the boomer generation with their 04/2001 ks's is inflation. Yeah. No matter how much they have in their four zero one k and we're we're spending 2,000,000,000,000 more than we pull in,

他们很可能...

they're probably that's

鲍勃，那个...

Bob, what Well,

正是如此。比如你买普通股票，收益率可能就2%-3%。但美元贬值速度远超政府公布的数据。如今美国政府的可信度，和阿根廷政府没什么两样。

that that's right. I mean, you buy your average stock, and maybe it's yielding two or 3%, something like that. Yeah. But the dollar's losing value at you can't believe the government's figures. You can't believe the US government's figures any more than you can believe the Argentine government's figures.

美元的实际价值每年正以510%的速度贬值。那么你会怎么做？我知道房地产作为实物资产一直让你受益匪浅。但房地产是否也变得过于昂贵了？

The dollar is losing value in real terms in between 510% per year. So what do you do? I know real estate has always treated you extremely well because it's a real asset. But is real estate getting overpriced too?

嗯，你总能找到便宜货。明白我的意思吗？这就是我喜欢房地产的原因。总有人处于抛售状态。

Well, you can always find a bargain. You know what I mean? That's what I like about real estate. There's somebody always in the in in the sell mode.

所以这是个流动性市场。

So this is in liquid market.

这是我想问你的另一个问题，因为在阿根廷，哈维尔·米莱特，你知道的，他拿起了电锯。当你看到特朗普和马斯克聚在一起时，你是否感到一丝希望？

This is another question I wanna ask you because being in Argentina, this guy Javier Milet, you know, he took the chainsaw. When you saw Trump and Musk get together, was there a glimmer of hope from you?

听着，我曾是狗狗币及其与马斯克合作愿景的狂热支持者。但狗狗币基本上已经消失，而特朗普现在花钱像个醉醺醺的水手。所以等等——他与马斯克的关系已今非昔比。

Listen. I was a huge fan of Doge, and what he and what Musk wanted to do. But Doge has basically disappeared, and, Trump is spending money like a drunk sailor at this point. So Wait a his his relation with with Musk is not what once was.

纠正你一下，醉水手花的是自己的钱。

Correct you. Drunk sailors spend their own money.

说得好。

That's a good point.

说得好。继续讲。继续讲。

That's a good point. Keep going. Keep going.

问题是，多吉币是唯一能拯救美国政府免于彻底破产和全面债务违约的东西，这即将发生。但问题是阿根廷曾拥有全球最糟糕的经济之一，民众彻底受够了。他们选举了哈维尔·米莱，他声称要用链锯彻底改革政府职能。他确实做了些了不起的事——裁撤了数万名无用的政府雇员，大幅削减了多个领域的预算，但也犯了些错误。

Well, Doge is the only thing that could save the US government from total and abject bankruptcy and defaulting on all of its obligations, which is going to happen. But the problem is that Argentina had one of the worst economies in the world, and the people got totally fed up. And they elected Javier Mele, who said that he wanted to take a chainsaw to everything the government does. And he did wonderful things. He fired scores of thousands of, worthless government employees, cut the budget in many places, but, he's made some mistakes.

比如他宣称要废除中央银行，相当于我们这的美联储，但他没做到。这是重大失误。他本应直接让阿根廷对所有外债违约。

Like, he said he was gonna abolish the central bank. They're equivalent to the Fed in this country. He he didn't do it. Big mistake. He should have defaulted on all of Argentina's foreign debts.

为什么？那些钱全被上届政府贪污了。所以他不该——你们也不该——让下一代阿根廷人，或者说美国人，沦为偿还这些被挥霍债务的农奴。所以他当时就该直接违约。可他现在反而向美国政府借更多钱。

Why? That money was all stolen, by the previous administration. So he shouldn't, you you shouldn't turn the next generation of Argentines, or for that matter, Americans, into serfs paying off debt that was pissed away, quite frankly. So he should have defaulted on that. And now he's borrowing more money from the US government.

当然，美国政府自己也没钱，全靠印钞。所以我也说不清。听着，我热爱阿根廷，那里是全世界最适合生活的地方之一。

Well, of course, the US government doesn't have the money either. It's printing up the money. So I don't know. I listen. I I love Argentina, and it's as a place to hang out, it's one of the best in the world.

但我希望米莱别搞砸了，忘记核心纲领——也就是用链锯式手段改革政府。

But I I hope Malay doesn't blow it by losing the plot, which is basically taking a chainsaw to the government.

好。你我都很懂弹道学。子弹。对。你觉得特朗普和埃隆退缩是因为不想遭遇查理·柯克那样的事吗？

K. Well, you you and I understand, ballistics fairly well. Bullets. Yes. Do you think Trump and Elon backed off because of what they didn't want to happen to them, what happened to Charlie Kirk.

没错。你刚才说的非常贴切，因为关于查理·柯克事件的报道质量实在太差了。他们只是不断重复同样的内容，没有新信息，也没有解释到底发生了什么。

Yeah. And what you just said is very apropos because, you know, the reporting of what happened to Charlie Kirk is so substandard. They just repeat the same thing over and over again. No new information. No explanation of what really happened.

唯一能看到解释的地方是在互联网上的某些网站。但据我观察这起刺杀事件，他们说凶手是用一把毛瑟枪从200码外射击的，8毫米或30口径左右的子弹。如果真是这样，恐怕查理的脑袋早就溅满整个舞台了。但实际上他脖子上只有一个小孔，而且找不到子弹。所以很明显，这是近距离作案。

The only place you can see an explanation is on sites on the Internet. But as I look at that, assassination, they say that he was shot from 200 yards away with a Mauser, a eight millimeter or a 30 odd slicks. But if that had been the case, I'm afraid Charlie's head would have been splattered all over the stage. But there was just a tiny little hole in his neck, and they can't find the bullet. So, obviously, it happened from near at hand.

子弹去哪了？事实上，尸检报告在哪？有太多疑点无法吻合。这就像我们经历过的所有重大刺杀案——至少从肯尼迪遇刺以来都是这样。

And where's the bullet? In fact, where's the autopsy? There's so many things that don't fit together with this. It's like all of the major assassinations that we've had in the last well, since JFK anyway.

是的。女士们先生们，这位是我的老朋友道格·凯西，我们相识多年。我一直很期待他的播客，因为他总说些让人坐不住的话，发人深省。想想看——他刚才说什么来着？

Yeah. So ladies and gentlemen, my friend, Doug Casey, we've been friends for a long time here. I look forward to his, podcast all the time because he's always got something to say that upsets people, makes them think. Go think. What what did he say?

稍后回来时，我们将继续与道格畅谈，他住在世界上最美的地方之一——阿根廷，还有乌拉圭。现在你切萨皮克湾地区对吧？待会儿我要听听道格对美国现状的见解。马上回来。

When we come back, we'll be talking more to Doug because he lives in a wonderful part of the world, Argentina, plus Uruguay, I believe. And now you're in the Chesapeake Bay area. And, anyways, when we come back, I'm gonna find Doug's point of view on what's going on inside America. We'll right. Welcome back.

这里是罗伯特·清崎的《富爸爸电台节目》。我的老友道格·凯西，我每周都听他的播客。每周他都会抛出让人惊呼'什么？他说了什么？'的观点。

Robert Kiyosaki, The Rich Dad Radio Show. I have a longtime friend, Doug Casey. I listen to his podcast every week. Every week he says something that goes, what? What did he say?

这些观点总能引发我的思考。我认为当今社会最需要的就是多思考。我想帮他推销这本书，我翻看过但还没细读，书名叫做《未雨绸缪》。

And it's always gets me to think. And I think that's what we need to do is think a little bit more today. I wanna help him sell this book here. I looked it over. I haven't read it yet, but it's called the preparation.

真的，它实际上是一本全球资本家或冒险者的指南，因为这就是道格和我真正的身份。我们是冒险者。我们周游世界。我们自食其力。我们可以在任何地方赚钱。

Really, what it is is a guidebook for global capitalists or soldiers of fortune because that's what Doug and I really are. We're soldiers of fortune. We travel the world. We eat what we kill. We can make money anywhere we want to.

而这本书就是为此准备的。所以准备工作，你知道的，就是如何为冒险生活做准备。我是说，有些年轻人整天坐在地下室打电子游戏。现在的男人怎么了？你知道吗？

And this this is this book. So preparation is, you know, how how you prepare for a life of adventure. I mean, some of the young men, they sit in their basement playing video games. What is wrong with the men today? You know?

我我不知道。他们甚至都不和现在的女人约会。也许是因为现在很多女人染着紫色蓝色的头发，价值观也与之相配。我是说，和这样的女人混在一起很危险。她们是负担，不是资产。

I I don't know. They don't even go out with the women today. Maybe that's because a lot of the women today, have purple and blue hair and the values that go with that. I mean, they're actively dangerous hanging out with women like that. They're a liability, not an asset.

所以他们不被女性吸引。现在有一整个被称为‘非自愿独身者’的年轻男性群体。罗伯特，这某种程度上正是侵蚀美国的病症的一部分。真的。这很...很可笑。

So they're not attracted to women. They got a whole class of young men that are termed incels. I mean, it's part of the, the sickness that's eating in America itself, at this point, Robert. It really is. It's, you know, it's it's it's funny.

这里不再是自由之地、勇者之乡了。那已成为古老的历史。那是过去的美国。但这个国家已逐渐转变，特别是过去五六十年间，变得软弱。它失去了道德价值观。

It's not the land of the free and the home of the brave anymore. That's that's ancient history. That's what it used to be. But the country has slowly transformed, especially over the last fifty or sixty years, where it's, become soft. It has no moral values.

我认为它正在走下坡路。我痛心地说这话，因为我本是美国理念的狂热拥护者。坦率地说，美国理念是最伟大的政治构想，但它正被冲刷进污水池。你无能为力——我是说，别指望通过政治改变现状，因为政治体系已腐败透顶。整个系统现在已严重堕落。

It it it's I think it's headed down the chutes. And I hate to say that because I'm a huge fan of America as a concept. The concept of America is the greatest political concept that ever was, quite frankly, but it's being washed away, into a cesspool. So all you can do is I mean, you can't go out and hope to change things politically because the political system is terminally corrupt. The system itself is very degraded, at this point.

所以我不相信政治解决方案。若能出现转机固然好，但不可能。你唯一能做的是自救。这就是我们写那本书的原因——它是专门指导年轻男性如何在不随大流做蠢事的情况下生存并成功的指南。

So I don't believe in political solutions. It would be nice if one occurred. No. But what you gotta do is save yourself. And that's why we wrote that book, it's a guidebook specifically of what a young man should do to survive and prosper without doing the conventional stupid things that everybody else does.

就像我说的，我遇到很多年轻人，他们更担心的是自己的四零四零一K账户。我还在想，什么？你知道吗，他们的灵魂里毫无冒险精神。我和年轻女性交谈时，她们也有些失望。说，他们怎么了？

It's like I said, I meet so many young men, they're more worried about their four zero four zero one ks. I'm still like, what? You know, they have no adventure in their souls. And I talked to young women and they're a little disappointed also. Said, what happened to them?

然后我的朋友们，你知道，我当过海军陆战队员，参加过两次越战之类的，所以我有点心理阴影。但我那些还在部队的朋友说，我们找不到男人了。征兵很困难。总之，你提到了你写过关于大萧条的文章。我们这一代人正驶向一个破产的社会保障体系。

And then my friends, you know, I was a Marine, two tours of Vietnam and all that, so I'm kind of screwed up. But, my friends who are still in the core, they said, we can't find men. Have a hard time recruiting. Anyway, you you brought up you wrote about the greater depression. We're of the generation now that's cruising into a bankrupt social security.

道格，你知道全球有多少婴儿潮一代吗？

Do you know how many you know how many baby boomers are in the world, Doug?

你是问美国还是全球的数据？

Let me say, in The US or in the world?

全球总数。20亿婴儿潮一代。这意味着80亿人口中有20亿即将退出劳动力市场。我在想，这到底会带来什么后果？

A total world. The number 2,000,000,000 baby boomers. That means there's 2,000,000,000 people out of 8,000,000,000 coming off the coming off the work line. I'm going, what the heck that gonna do?

那么，当他们的身体开始垮掉时，他们有足够的储蓄来维持生活吗？

Well, do they have enough do they have enough savings to maintain them, as their bodies start falling apart?

我就是这个意思。医疗账单会暴涨。到了六十岁，这些费用简直直线上升。而且有些...

That's what I mean. Your what goes up are your medical bills. Yeah. At six, they just skyrocket. And some

往好的方面想，或许埃隆·马斯克是对的。十年后，机器人可能承担大部分体力劳动。而人工智能似乎已经在替人类思考了。但坦白说，我觉得AI和维基百科一样不可全信。

On the bright side, maybe maybe Elon Musk is right. And in ten years, robots will be able to do most of what needs doing in the way of physical labor. And it seems like AI is already doing people's thinking for them. But I'm not sure you can trust AI any more than you can trust Wikipedia, quite frankly.

是啊。我还听说3.6亿美国人里有2亿——将近50%——在靠政府救济过活。

Yeah. The other thing I heard is that there's 200,000,000 Americans out of 360,000,000, almost 50%, 50%, who are on some kind of government subsistence.

这应该是事实。我好奇有多少美国人睡在桥洞和公园长椅上，你去大城市随处可见。具体数字...说不准。统计数据不可靠，人们总会出于政治目的操纵数字。但确实有数十万美国人一无所有，连房子都没有。

I think that's true. And I wonder how many Americans are sleeping under bridges and on parked benches because you go to major cities and you see them everywhere. The number's got to be I don't know. The numbers are unreliable. I mean, people wanna report numbers for whatever political reasons they have, but there are hundreds of thousands of Americans that have nothing, not even a house.

不，可能连帐篷都没有。这些人怎么办？随着人数成倍增长，难道要我们一直供养他们吗？就像...

No. Maybe not even a tent. So what's gonna happen to those people? I mean, are we gonna have to support them as their numbers double and triple and more? Is it as it

托马斯·杰斐逊多年前就警告过：如果中央银行掌权，人民将在自己的国家无家可归。如今无家可归者在美国激增，而人人崇拜的美联储...简直荒谬！

Thomas Jefferson warned us years ago. He says if a central bank takes over, people will wake up homeless in their own country. And now homelessness is exploding across America. And we have a federal reserve bank that everybody worships. And I'm going, are you kidding me?

美联储根本就是马克思主义的央行。

Federal is the federal reserve bank's Marxist.

包括特朗普也这么想——他认为只要美联储降息加印钞，经济就会繁荣。他只看到疯狂印钞的直接效果：'嘿，我感觉变有钱了'。

And so And and they expect that, including Trump, I've gotta say, he thinks that if the Federal Reserve just reduces interest rates and prints more money, then everything will be fine. Everything will boom. So he looks at the immediate and direct consequences of printing a lot of money up. Hey. I feel rich.

我可以出门购物。但他只盯着眼前，看不到那些延迟和间接的后果。货币变得一文不值。人们的积蓄被摧毁。债券市场也将崩溃。

I can go out and buy stuff. But he's looking at the he does not look at the delayed and indirect consequences. The currency becomes nothing. People's savings are destroyed. The bond market will be destroyed.

至于股市，你知道，他显然根本不在意这些。

The stock market will you know, he doesn't he doesn't look at that stuff apparently.

那么，凯西先生，您提到过大萧条。我查到的数据是1929年市场崩盘后，直到1954年才恢复。我记得道指在1921年是3.81美元，花了33年才重回这个数值。

So, mister mister Casey, you know, you talked about the greater depression. The numbers I have is the market crash in '29. It took till 1954 for it get back. I think the Dow was at $3.81 in nineteen twenty one nine. It took to 1954 to get back to $3.81.

那时候的美元购买力只有最初的一半。所以

The dollars were only worth half as much at that So

当您谈论大萧条时，脑海中浮现的是什么景象？您预见到什么？

when you talk about the greater depression, what sits inside your head? What do you see?

我认为大多数人的生活水平会大幅下降，因为当今国家背负的巨额债务意味着人们要么在透支前几代人积累的财富，要么在抵押自己的未来——他们未来的收入将被当前创造的债务吞噬。这其实比1929年更糟，因为当时全球债务很少，没有信用卡债、汽车贷款。

Well, most people's standard of living, I think, is going to go down a lot, because the huge amount of debt that we have in this country today means that people are either consuming what past generations have created and borrowing that, or they're mortgaging their own futures going forward where their earnings are going to be tagged by all the debt that they're creating. So, it's actually worse than one reason. It's gonna be worse than what happened from '29 to '46 is that there really wasn't much debt in the world. There was no credit card debt. There was no automobile debt.

那时也没有学生贷款，甚至房贷都很少见。当年的房贷期限可能就五年，而现在要三十年。所以在积累财富之前，你得先摆脱债务的枷锁。

There was no student debt. Not even mortgage debt in those days. A mortgage was maybe five years. Now today, it's, you know, thirty years. So that before you can start building wealth, you have to get rid of the debt.

这将非常困难。我认为他们的做法是让美元彻底贬值，这实际上是最糟糕的情况。

It's gonna be very hard. I think the how they're gonna do it is the dollar's gonna lose all value, which is actually the worst thing that could happen.

正因如此，你知道过去这些年，我一直储备金银。1974年黄金合法化时我就首次购入——那是美国人首次被允许持有黄金。我在香港买了南非克鲁格金币，当时差点还买了白银。

That's why, It's you know the last years, and years, and years, I've saved silver and gold. And I bought first gold in 1974 when it was legal. It was the first time it was legal for Americans to own gold. I bought a South African Krugerrand in Hong Kong. And I almost bought silver.

如今白银作为工业金属很有价值，这很好。但我还持有...

And now silver is used as an industrial metal, so it's good. But I have

罗伯特，我们俩都是。金银确实让我们受益匪浅。我不愿公开讨论投机，因为大多数人心理承受力不足，也缺乏相应的经济知识。但我始终参与金矿开采业务——这是高杠杆的黄金投资方式，我知道你也是。

You and I both, Robert. So it's it's really treated us very well. And I hate to mention speculations in public because most people are not psychologically suited, and they don't have the economic knowledge to be suited to speculate and things. But, I've always been involved in the gold mining business, which is a very leveraged way of playing gold. I know you are too.

我不建议普通人涉足这个领域，因为波动太大、风险极高。但未来市场会像被疯子操控的电梯般剧烈震荡，人们将被迫参与投机——无论他们是否愿意或应该这样做。

I hate to tell the average guy to get involved in that, but, because it's so volatile and very risky. But, you know, the markets are gonna be going up and down like an elevator with a lunatic at the controls in the years to come. So I think people are gonna be forced to speculate whether they want to or not, whether they should do it or not. They're almost gonna have to.

你无法紧握美元不放——上周我在津巴布韦奥古斯塔亲眼见证货币超发如何摧毁经济。顺便说，这是我的金矿，在纽交所上市的美国金矿（并非打广告）。

Well, you can't hang on to that dollar because I was in I was in Zimbabwe, Augusta, last week, And that's what brought them down. They printed By too the way, this is my my gold mine. I took public on New York Stock Exchange. I'm not publicizing it, but that's real gold. It's an American gold mine.

我强调这点是因为当年作为冒险者犯的错：第一座金矿在中国。道格，你戳中我痛处了——你清楚他们干了什么，对吧？

And the reason I stress that is the mistake I made as a soldier of fortune is my first gold mine was in China. You're hurting me. You're hurting me, Doug. Because you know what they did. Right?

我们刚挖到金子，他们就来抢走了。你知道吗，从那以后我再也不吃中餐了。

Soon as we struck gold, they took it. You know, I don't eat Chinese food after that anymore.

听着，在我投资之前——哦不，矿业股根本不能投。在我投机任何矿业股前，要记住九字诀。这是我用来帮助记忆的口诀。其中一条就是政治。你必须选个政局相对稳定的国家。

Well, you know, before I invest oh, I don't you can't invest in mining stocks. Before I speculate in any mining stocks, there are nine p's. That's a mnemonic that I use to help me remember these things. And one of them is politics. You gotta pick a country where the politics are reasonably stable anyway.

所以

So

这叫国家风险。风险有多大？

It's called country risk. How risky it?

没错。精辟。当然最大的风险是九字诀第一条：人。人的风险。

Yeah. Precisely. Yeah. Of course, the biggest risk is the first p, people. The people risk.

你需要好人。坏人手里永远出不了好事。

You need good people. Bad people can't possibly have anything good happen as a result of it.

我们这节课以这个话题收尾。你曾在节目里谈过邪恶的定义。能再讲讲什么是邪恶吗？因为我感觉邪恶正在吞噬我们伟大的国家。

So we end with this class. On one of your broadcasts, you had talked about what was evil. You mind trying that, what is evil? Because that's what I see taking over this great country of ours.

确实如此。'邪恶'这个词人们往往不愿直面，或许周日去教堂时会听到，但对其定义却模糊不清。我认为邪恶是有目的的破坏性行为，蓄意摧毁积累的思想与资本，意图就是毁灭它们并让生活变得更糟。这个话题足够我们讨论数小时。

It really is. It's a word that people don't confront, that it's something that they hear in church maybe on Sunday, but they don't have it defined properly. And I would say evil is purposeful destructive, purposeful destruction of accumulated ideas and capital, with the idea, with the intention of destroying them and making life worse. We could talk about this for hours

嗯，是的。

and Yeah.

历史上对邪恶的定义层出不穷。但在这个国家，确实存在憎恨国家的势力。他们憎恨立国之本，厌恶国内多数或半数民众，这些行为本质上就是邪恶的。没错。

And bring the bring forward the definitions that have been used for evil in the past. But, there are elements in this country that hate the country. They hate the ideas it's founded on. They hate most of the people or half of the people in the country, and, they're actually evil. Yeah.

这个词在某些圈子已被污名化，因为人们太滥用了。

That's a word that's been discredited, in some circles because it's it's it's used too promiscuously.

但在我看来，摧毁行善之物即为邪恶。比如，我和查理·柯克同台时，我完全赞同他的言论，欣赏他的胆识——可他就这样被除掉了。

But me, evil is when you destroy something that's doing good. Yeah. Like, you know, when that you know, Charlie Kirk and I shared the stage together. And I I I liked everything he said, but I thought he had big cojones, you know, big balls. But he got taken out.

他明明在全力...

So he was doing It all of

这种事可能发生在任何人身上。我担心他的遇害可能成为转折点，导致人们开始以肉体对抗的方式选边站队。

could happen to anybody. And I'm afraid that his murder is a potential turning point where people could start lining up on one side of the barricades or the other physically.

是的。凯西先生，感谢你这些年成为我的朋友，同时我也嫉妒你住在阿根廷那个美丽的地方。如果你见到哈维·阿米尔先生，请代我向他道贺。我希望埃隆和唐纳德也能做到他在阿根廷所取得的成就。不过

Yep. So mister Casey, I thank you for being my friend for all these years, and then I'm jealous that you live in that beautiful place, Argentina. And if you ever say mister Harvey Amile, tell him congratulations. And I hope Elon and Donald can do what he's done in Argentina. But

我也是这么想的。我也希望如此。别把人生规划押注在这上面，但我也同样期盼着。希望我们有机会能聚一聚，我很期待。

it's I do. I I do too. Don't don't plan your life around it, but I hope so also. I I hope we can get together sometime. I'd like that.

我觉得当埃隆和特朗普介入狗狗币时，他们的生命受到了威胁，因为他们踩到了某些人的利益。没错。

I think when doe when Doge, you know, with Elon and Trump stepped in there, I think their lives were threatened because they're gonna step on somebody's shoes, toes. Yep.

对，正是如此。现在这个国家真正掌权的是谁？我怀疑是那些盘踞在华盛顿的15个特权机构内部势力，从中央情报局、联邦调查局到国防部的人开始。还有十几个类似的机构，他们都是危险人物。

Yeah. Exactly. And who really controls this country at this point? I suspect it's elements within these 15 praetorian agencies that, hang around Washington, starting with the, people in the CIA and the FBI and the Department of Defense. And there's a dozen more of them, and they're all dangerous people.

是啊。所以朋友，让我们继续与邪恶斗争吧，下次街区见。今天非常感谢你抽出时间分享这些

Yeah. So my friend, let's let's keep fighting evil, and, we'll see you on the block next time. So I appreciate your time today and sharing

这是我的荣幸，罗伯特。

your It's my pleasure, Robert.

谢谢你，道格。我们稍后回来。在此我要感谢道格·凯西，他是我多年的好友。请务必收听他的播客，因为每次听完我都会想：他刚才说了什么？而这正是我想要的。

Thank you, Doug. And we'll be right back. So I wanna thank Doug Casey, been a friend for all these years. And please check tune into his podcast because every time I listen to it, I go, what did he just say? And that's what I want.

我想找个人去，他说了什么？因为这就是我们在这里的目的，引发你的思考。谢谢你，道格。

I want somebody to go, what did he say? Because that's what we're here to do, make you think. Thank you, Doug.

谢谢，罗伯特。

Thanks, Robert.

稍后我们将带来富爸爸的最终寄语。欢迎回来并感谢道格·凯西的分享。提醒一下，他的书名为《准备》。我更愿称之为财富战士的训练手册，因为财富战士能去往世界任何地方创造财富。为此我感谢他，并以当前世界局势作为我们最后的思考。

And we'll be right back with a final word from Rich Dad. So welcome back and thank you to Doug Casey. Reminder, his book is called The Preparation. I really call it the training manual for soldiers of fortune because a soldier of fortune can go anywhere in the world and make a fortune. So I thank him for that and I'll leave us final thought with what's going on in the world.

其实我并不...我不喜欢涉及宗教话题。我确实相信上帝存在，但宗教导致的死亡人数比任何其他因素都多。知道吗？我记得天主教徒曾枪杀新教徒，新教徒也枪杀天主教徒。这对我来说完全不可理喻，但这就是宗教。

I'm not really, I don't like to get into religion. I do believe there's a God, but religion has been responsible for the killing of more people than anybody else. Know? Like I remember when Catholics were shooting Protestants and Protestants were shooting Catholics. That made no sense to me at all, but that's religion.

但无论如何，今天我想用这句话作结：不叫我们遇见试探，救我们脱离凶恶。眼下，我们不要以恶报恶。感谢收看《富爸爸秀》。

But anyway, the words I'll leave it with today is, lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. And right now, let's not let's not treat evil with evil. Thank you for watching the rich dad show.

本播客由富爸爸传媒网络出品。

This podcast is a presentation of Rich Dad Media Network.