全球世代：驾驭变迁的世界，第2集

讨论让世界持续运转。

Discussion keeps the world turning.

这就是圆桌论坛。

Is Round Table.

从北京的心脏到全球舞台的边缘，您正在参与圆桌论坛。

From the heart of Beijing to the edges of the global stage, you're at Round Table.

我是你的林先生。

I'm Your Hon Lin.

中国实现碳中和的道路正受到全球密切关注，因为它引发了诸多问题。

China's path toward carbon neutrality is being watched closely around the world because of the questions it raises.

一个国家如何在保持经济动力的同时，改造庞大的工业体系？

How does a country transform vast industrial systems while maintaining economic momentum?

绿色愿景如何转化为社区和家庭中的实际变革？

How do green ambitions translate into practical changes in communities and households?

因此，在本期《全球世代》节目中，主持人费费将邀请一位中国专家和一位英国学者，共同探讨这个正在变化的世界。

So in this episode of Generation Global navigating a changing world, our host, Fei Fei, brings together two perspectives, a Chinese expert and a scholar from The United Kingdom.

他们的对话探讨了中国绿色转型在国内和国际上如何被理解，以及这可能对未来发展本身意味着什么。

Their conversation explores how China's green transition is being understood at home and abroad, and what it might mean for the future of development itself.

现在请坐下来，加入他们的对话。

Now pull up a chair and join their conversation.

欢迎来到《世代全球：应对变化的世界》。

Welcome to Generation Global navigating a changing world.

这是一个系列节目，我们将与中国本地及世界各地的年轻人坐下来交谈。

It's a series where we sit down with young voices from both here in China and elsewhere in the world.

我是Round Table的Fei Fei。

I'm Fei Fei with Round Table.

今天，我邀请了两位杰出的研究者，共同探讨我们世界的未来。

And today, I'm joined by two wonderful researchers to discuss the future of our world.

问题是，这个未来会有多绿色？

The question is, how green will this future look like?

我们是否走在同一条道路上，还是在想象着不同的目的地？

And are we sharing the same pathway forward, or are we imagining different destinations?

更重要的是，这真的重要吗？

And more importantly, perhaps, does it really matter?

因此，今天在演播室里和我一起的是来自中国人民大学的郭博伟。

So here in the studio joining me is Guo Bo Wei from Renmin University of China.

你好，博伟。

Hello, Bui.

感谢你今天加入我们。

Thank you for joining me today.

在开始之前，你能告诉我们你的研究领域吗？

So before we start, can you tell us about your areas of research?

当然。

Sure.

我目前是中国人民大学的副教授，我的研究重点是能源安全、能源转型和中国电力市场改革。

I'm currently an associate professor at Renmin University of China, and my research focus is on energy security, energy transition, and China's electricity market reform.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

另外，我们还有一位连线嘉宾。

And also, have another guest on the line.

她是来自伦敦的贝琳达·查普伊。

It is Belinda Chapay from London.

你好，贝琳达。

Hello, Belinda.

嗨，飞，谢谢邀请我。

Hi, Fei Thanks for having me.

我是能源与清洁空气研究中心的中国问题分析师兼团队负责人。

I'm a China analyst and team lead at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

我们是一个独立智库，我的工作聚焦于中国的能源转型及其对气候变化、经济和全球政治的影响。

We're an independent think tank, and my work focuses on China's energy transition, what it means for climate change, for the economy, and global politics.

非常期待今天的讨论。

So really looking forward to today's discussion.

今天能有你们两位在这里，真的非常棒。

It's really wonderful to have you both here today.

而且我觉得你们在过去的经历中有一些相似之处。

And I think you somehow share some similarities in your past experiences.

在录制开始前，我们其实发现，现在住在伦敦的贝琳达，和卜伟过去都曾在英国求学——卜伟在本科和研究生阶段都在英国，这能为我们讨论今天的主题——能源转型——带来非常多元的视角。

Before this recording, we actually found out that Belinda, now living in London, Bu Wei used to study in The UK in his undergrad postgraduate, which can bring us very diverse perspective when we're talking about today's topic, which is energy transition.

但在深入探讨这个主题之前，我想很多听众最关心的一个大问题是：为什么能源转型对我们如此重要，尤其是在当今的世界？

But before we get into the details of this topic, I think one of the biggest question a lot of our listeners would have is that why is energy transition important to us, especially in today's world?

好的。

Okay.

从我的角度来看，我们正经历气温不断升高，或者更广泛地说，极端天气频发。

From my perspective, well, we are experiencing the increasing temperature or more broadly extreme weathers.

我们可以看到，尤其是在北京或欧洲的听众，都能感受到冬天的气温可能极低，夏天则可能极热。

And we can see that especially I think audience in Beijing or in Europe can feel that there are in winter, the temperature can be extremely low and in summer can be extremely high.

我看到新闻说，每年夏天都有人因极端高温而受苦，有些人甚至被送进了医院。

And I see news that in every year, there are people in summer who suffered from the extreme heat and some of them are in hospital, so ended up in hospital.

所以在我看来，尽管全球变暖正成为一个非常严重的问题，如果我们继续燃烧传统的化石燃料，将会加剧本已非常糟糕的状况。

So from my perspective, while global warming is becoming a very serious issue, and if we continue burns the traditional fossil fuels, and that will accelerate the already very bad condition.

这就是为什么我们需要进行能源转型。

So that's why we need to have this energy transition.

是的。

Yeah.

我同意鲍威的观点。

I agree with Bowie.

我认为，能源部门是化石燃料排放的最大来源，而我们所有人都在使用能源和电力。

I think, I mean, the energy sector is the largest contributor in terms of emissions from fossil fuels and all of us use energy and electricity.

对吧？

Right?

它是我们日常生活中的一部分。

It's part of our everyday life.

所以我们应该关心能源的来源，也应该关心它的安全性。

So we should care where it comes from, and we should care that it's secure.

这周我们明显看到化石燃料市场出现了很大的波动。

And we're seeing very live this week that there's a lot of volatility with fossil fuels.

有许多我们无法控制的副作用，这与我们为未来设想的清洁能源和清洁能源系统不同。

There are a lot of side effects that are out of our control that we can't control, which is different with clean energy and the clean energy systems that we're envisaging for the future.

我认为其他副作用还包括空气污染，这是一个在中国许多人都非常关注的话题，我们也能看到化石燃料能源系统带来许多负面影响。

And I think other side effects include air pollution, a topic that's very relevant for many people in China, I imagine, where we also see a lot of negative side effects from fossil fuels in the energy system.

因此，我认为我们有充分的理由思考能源转型，公众也应更加关注未来会是什么样子，以及它带来的机遇——无论是从健康、气候，还是能源安全，甚至就业的角度来看。

So I think there there are many good reasons for us to think about the energy transition and for the public to also be more interested in what the future look like and, what opportunities it brings, both from a health perspective, from a climate perspective, but also from an energy security perspective and frankly for jobs as well.

随着新技术的不断涌现，这确实是一个令人兴奋的时代，对年轻人和许多刚起步的人来说尤其如此。

Like, it's an exciting time for with new technologies emerging that's also quite exciting for young people and many people starting out, I think.

是的。

Yeah.

在某种程度上，我认为我们正在经历的转型，不仅限于能源系统，还包括经济的其他领域，这意味着你未来五到十年从事的工作，可能会与今天大不相同。

In some ways, I think the transition that we're going through, not only in the energy system, in other parts of the economy, could mean that the job you are going to take in about five to ten years' time would look very different from what we're looking for today.

谈到能源转型、减缓气候变化等等，中国当前在全球舞台上的故事是无法忽视的。

And speaking about this energy transition and mitigating climate change and so on and so forth, China's story is very difficult to ignore on a global stage currently.

贝琳达，我很好奇你目前住在英国伦敦。

And Belinda, I'm curious about you're living in London in The UK at the moment.

那么，当我们谈论能源转型、实现气候目标和清洁能源发展时，为什么中国是其中的关键部分呢？

So can you tell us why exactly is China a main part when we're talking about energy transition, we're talking about achieving our climate goals and clean energy development.

是的。

Yeah.

中国正处于这一问题及其解决方案的核心位置。

China sits very much at the heart of the problem and the solutions to this.

中国是最大的排放国。

China is the largest emitter.

它占全球排放量的三分之一左右，并且拥有世界上最大的一些燃煤电厂，而且还在继续增加这些设施。

It accounts for around a third of global emissions, and it has some of the largest, for example, coal power fleets, and it's still adding more to that system.

这确实是个大问题。

So that's really problematic.

但这也令人振奋，因为清洁能源现在已能完全满足中国不断增长的电力需求，这正开始降低排放量。

And that's becoming really exciting because clean energy is now able to meet all the increase in electricity demand in China, which is starting to bring down emissions.

因此，中国在未来五年乃至几十年的发展轨迹，将对全球排放和全球能源转型至关重要，决定我们能多快加速减排，将排放降至更安全的气候水平。

So, really, the trajectory that China takes over the next five years, over the next decades will be crucial for the global world, for global emissions, but also for the global energy transition to see how fast can we actually accelerate and, how fast can we bring emissions down to a safer climate.

费，我想问问你，因为我们正坐在中国的中心——首都北京。

And, Fei, I want to ask you about this because we are sitting in the heart of China, the capital city Beijing.

回顾过去，我们目前也正处于中国发展的十字路口。

And looking back, we are also kind of at the crossroad for China at the moment as well.

我们刚刚完成了过去五年最重要的规划，即第十四五个五年计划，并正在制定下一个五年计划。

We just finished our most important plan over the past five years, the fourteenth drafting our next five year plan.

而你现在深入研究能源行业及其与经济的紧密联系。

And now you study the energy sector and how it's linked to economy very closely.

未来五年，中国将走向什么方向？

What direction is China going to take in the future, in the next five years?

我们肯定会继续推进能源转型，不仅在电力部门，也在许多其他领域。

Well, we will definitely continue our energy transition and not only in the power sector, but also in many other sectors.

我们已经提到过这一目标：十年内，我们将使可再生能源装机容量增加六倍。

And we've already said that well, mentioned have this target that in ten years, we are going to six fold our renewable energies capacity.

随之而来的是，我认为在未来五年内，我们的可再生能源装机容量可能会增加两到三倍，这主要是在电力领域。

And with that goes, I mean, would expect that in the next five years, we might three fold or four fold our current renewable capacity, so that's in the power sector.

当然，要支持如此大规模的可再生能源，我们需要能源基础设施，比如输电网络的扩展、配电线路的升级，以及更灵活的电力需求。

And, of course, a very important aspect for this amount large amount of renewable is that we need energy infrastructure, such as the expansion of transmission, the expansion of distribution lines, and we also need more flexible demand.

这主要是在能源领域。

So that's in the energy sector.

我们已经见证了道路上越来越多的电动汽车。

And we've already witnessed as many electric vehicles on the road.

现在，当我们乘坐网约车、出租车，甚至购车时，我们可能会选择电动汽车。

And now when we when we take Ubers, we take taxis, or even we buy cars, we might choose electricity vehicles.

事实上，我们很多人，或者说坦白讲，我刚买了一辆电动汽车。

Actually, many of us or frankly, I just bought electricity vehicle.

所以

So

开起来感觉怎么样？

How does it feel driving it?

嗯，感觉非常高科技。

Well, it feels very high-tech.

刚开始的时候，和传统的汽油车感觉不一样。

At the beginning, it feels different from traditional gasoline cars.

但一旦适应了，这两种车各有优缺点。

But once you get used to it, there are advantages and disadvantages comparing with the two types of cars.

它更智能，而且在一天忙碌之后，自动驾驶系统变得非常方便。

It's mostly smarter, and we have this auto automatic driving system after a very busy day, which is very it becomes very convenient.

但另一方面，充电时间较长，需要寻找充电桩，还有一些其他顾虑。

But on the other hand, the charging time, you need to find a charging station, and also there are some other concerns.

所以这些可能是缺点，但我认为总体而言，这是未来交通行业的发展方向。

So those might be some disadvantages, but I think overall that is a pathway for for our future transportation sector.

此外，在其他领域，我们也在推动其他行业的电气化，并减少工业的碳排放。

And also we in other sectors, we are also electrifying some other sectors, and we we are decarbonizing our industries.

我们正在提升水泥、钢铁和冶金行业的能源效率。

We are boosting our energy efficiency in the cement, in steel, in iron industries.

所以，是的，我认为这不仅仅是能源行业，所有行业都在向更清洁的未来迈进。

So, yeah, I think it's not just the energy sector, but all sectors or industries are moving towards a cleaner future.

正如你所说，我认为去年中国公布气候目标时，承诺将温室气体总排放量减少7%至10%，但我们还会努力做得更多。

Like you said, I think last year when China published its climate goals, it said to vow to cut down the overall emission of greenhouse gases by 7% to 10%, but we'll strive to do more.

至于如何实现这一7%到10%的目标，考虑到中国排放量的规模，我们需要减少的碳排放量是巨大的。

And when it comes to how to achieve this goal, I mean, percent to 10%, considering the size of China's emissions, that's a lot of carbon emission reductions that we need to do.

从系统性的角度来看，除了推广更多电动汽车或建设更多基础设施来推动清洁能源之外。

So from a systematic point of view, apart from just about driving more electric vehicles or doing more infrastructure building when it comes to pushing forward with clean energy.

从系统性的角度来看，我想知道你们如何看待中国具体如何实现这7%到10%甚至更多的温室气体排放削减？

From a systematic point of view, I'm curious about your guys' take on how exactly can China achieve this seven to 10% or even more reductions to greenhouse gas emissions?

我们实际上对此进行了一些研究，我们的分析发现，中国到2035年相比当前水平有潜力减少30%的排放。

We have actually done some studies on this, and our analysis has found that China actually has the potential to cut emissions by 30% by 2035 compared to current levels.

因此潜力巨大，但大部分来自电力行业，持续发展清洁能源是其中关键部分。

So there's a lot of potential, but most of it comes from the power sector, and continuing to build out clean energy is a really crucial part of that.

我认为我们的预期将是延续过去几年的趋势，而不是目前高层目标所设定的路径，后者实际上意味着大幅放缓。

I think our expectation would be a continuation of what we have seen the last couple of years rather than what was targeted so far in the high level targets, which would actually mean a dramatic slowdown.

但我认为，正如博伊所提到的，工业领域仍然有巨大的减排潜力。

But I think there's still huge potential as well in the industrial sectors that Boy was talking about.

特别是在钢铁行业，我们看到减排潜力接近40%，部分原因是由于中国房地产市场趋于饱和，需求下降，导致产量减少；另一方面，通过电气化改造钢铁行业也能带来显著减排，而目前中国的钢铁生产仍主要依赖煤炭。

Especially in the steel sector, we see potential for nearly 40% of emission cuts partly because production is going down, because China's real estate sector is saturating and there is just less need, but also partly through electrification of the steel sector, which is currently in China largely coal based.

因此，通过使用更多回收钢材实现电气化，具有巨大的潜力。

So electrifying that using more recycled steel has huge potential.

此外，交通领域也同样存在潜力，我们看到当前的发展速度已经远远领先于大多数模型预测的路径。

And then there are there is the transport sector as well where we're seeing, I think, the current development is well ahead of most modeled pathways.

中国电动汽车的普及速度远超任何人预期，这确实令人振奋。

The pickup of electric vehicles in China is a lot faster than I think anyone expected, and that's that's really exciting to see.

但我认为，最终我们仍面临如何应对旧有体系的挑战，也就是如何逐步淘汰现有的旧基础设施。

But I think there are also struggles in the end with how do you face down the old system, right, and dismantling some of the old infrastructure that you have.

因为中国以往的增长模式长期以来依赖煤炭，无论是在电力行业还是工业领域，因此摆脱这种依赖将是一个巨大的挑战。我认为，政策需要发挥关键作用，明确指引煤炭在电力行业和工业领域的发展方向——为清洁能源腾出空间，让煤炭逐步退居幕后，仅在必要时作为灵活性调节和能源安全的后备手段。

Because China's growth has traditionally been built on coal, both in the power sector and in industrial sectors, So moving away from that will be quite a big challenge, and I think there's a lot of need for policy to guide that, to have very clear like, you know, a clear direction of how is coal going to develop in the power sector, how is it going to develop in industrial sectors, and to really make space for clean energy to take up that new space and for coal to step into the background to be a flexibility mechanism and energy security in the end if you need it, but also only then.

我希望，在下一个十五年规划中，我们能获得非常清晰的指导：未来新建煤电项目将何去何从？

And I think that's hopefully what we're going to see in the next fifteen to five year plan that there is very clear guidance on what is does the future look like for new coal power projects?

会限制煤炭消费吗？

Will there be caps on coal consumption?

是否有计划逐步淘汰那些不再需要的老旧产能？

Will there be a plan for phasing down some of this old capacity that is not needed anymore?

所以我认为，这个问题有不同层面。

So I think, yeah, there's there's different levels to that.

但我看到很多潜力，我确实希望这个7%到10%的目标仅仅是对话的开始，我们将在各项政策以及中国实地正在发生的实际变化中看到，这些举措将显著超越这一目标。

But I see a lot of potential, and I do hope that this target of seven to 10% is really the beginning of a conversation and that we will see across policies and across the real and the changes that we are seeing in China on the ground that those will significantly over deliver that target.

那么，如果贝琳达估计我们可能会削减超过10%，你如何看待？

And, what do you see if, Belinda's estimates that we are probably going to cut more than 10%?

我认为我们有可能削减超过10%。

Well, I think there's potential that we can cut more than 10%.

但另一方面，我认为中国的脱碳路径可能与英国或欧盟等国家不同。

But on the other hand, I think the decarbonization pathway for China might be different from those in, like, in The UK or in The EU.

一个原因是，我们仍然是一个发展中国家。

One reason is that we are still a developing country.

当你看中国2025年的GDP增长率时，它是5%。

And you when you look at the GDP growth rate in China, it's 5% in 2025.

在可预见的未来，我认为平均增长率仍将保持在5%。

And in near future, at least, where I think the average growth rate would be five still be 5%.

以这样的增长率，我们需要更多的能源。

And with that growth rate, we need more energy.

所以当你看欧盟或美国的电力消费时，会发现它相当稳定。

So when you look at the electric consumption in The EU or in The USA, you'll find that it's quite stable.

你知道，每年可能略有下降。

You know, every year, it's probably going a bit downward.

但在中国，电力消费仍在持续增长。

But in China, it's still upward growing.

因此，考虑到这种GDP增长率，加上数字化和人工智能的发展——它们都是耗电大户，还有工业电气化，

So with that level of GDP growth and also with the development of digitalization, with development AI, which is a big electric consumer, and we also we have this industrial electrification.

中国的电力需求仍将保持增长。

So China's demand for electricity was be still be growing.

尽管我们正在以非常快的速度建设更多的可再生能源，但仍然需要更多的电力。

And although we are constructing more renewables and in a very rapid speed, but we still need more electricity.

毕竟，可再生能源不像传统化石燃料那样稳定。

And after all, renewables are not as stable as conventional fossil fuels.

是的，这让我想起去年夏天欧洲的情况，比如西班牙等国曾遭遇大规模停电。

Yeah, that reminds me of the story last summer really in Europe when, you know, in the countries like Spain, they encountered some major blackouts.

这让我思考可再生能源在整体电力系统中的作用——当然，它是好的。

And that got me thinking about the role of renewable energies in the overall power system is that, of course, it's good.

这是未来。

It's the future.

目前，全球大多数国家都不可否认这条路径。

This sort of pathway is undeniable by most countries in the world at moment.

但另一方面，它们也具有一些可能威胁到全球每个家庭日常生活的特性。

But on the other hand, they do have some features that could pose threats to everyday life, to every home around the world.

例如，在极端天气事件中，部分太阳能和风能可能无法产生。

For example, during extreme weather events, some parts, some solar, some wind are just not going to be generated.

因此，会有一些家庭，可能还有一些人会在一段时间内面临无法获得所需电力的问题。

So there will be homes, there will probably be people facing the problem of not being able to get the power that they need in a period of time.

关于这个非常棘手的问题——各国该如何平衡扩大可再生能源与仍为工商业、家庭和社会保持稳定供电的需求？这不仅是中国的问题，也是世界上许多国家共同面临的挑战。

So about this very, very tricky question, how could countries, not only here in China, I think it's a problem shared by many, many countries in the world, How should they balance out this need that the need to scaling up on their renewable energy and also still keep a very stable supply to businesses, to homes, to the society?

你们觉得这个问题的答案是什么？

What do you guys think the answer to this question?

在全球范围内，我认为加州给了我们一个很好的例子。

Well, over the world, I think California gave us a good example.

可再生能源的占比非常高，而他们实现这一点的方式是通过电池。

The renewable generation, renewable share is extremely high, and how they achieve this is through batteries.

他们拥有大量电池，因此可以在白天储存多余的电力，并在夜间或清晨太阳能发电不足时使用。

They have a lot of batteries, so they they can store a redundant electricity during the day and use it in the night or in the early morning when there's not enough electricity generated from solar.

但当你观察他们的电价时，不仅平均电价很高，电价的波动性也很高。

But when you look at their electricity prices, I mean, not only the average prices, but also the fluctuation of electricity prices is still high.

非常高。

It's very high.

我们担心的是，中国公民目前可能无法承担——至少在现阶段和当前的经济发展水平下，我们无力支撑或支付如此高昂的电费。

And our concern is that China's citizen might not be able to I mean, at least at the current stage and the current economic development level, we are unable to support or we are unable to pay such a high electricity bill for the citizens.

所以，未来电价可能会下降。

So, I mean, the future, the price might go down.

可能会出现一些新技术，或者人工智能介入电网，从而降低电价和价格波动。

There might be some new technology or or the involvement of artificial intelligence in the grid to lower the price and to lower the price fluctuation.

但我认为在现阶段，如果你问比如加州的情况，那电价到底是多少？

But I think at the current stage, if you ask for example, there is California, but if you ask me the price, what's the cost?

并不低。

It's not low.

这对每个家庭来说都是经济负担。

It's the burden, financial burden on every home.

所以，贝琳达，你对这个问题有什么看法？

So Belinda, what's your answer to this question?

我的意思是，欧洲很多国家也面临和加州类似的问题：他们的电网非常绿色，也在积极推进，但电费却在上涨。

I mean, Europe, I think a lot of European countries also face very similar issues to California is that their power grid is very green and they're pushing forward with that, but their bills on the rise.

另一方面，我们从新闻中听到，太阳能发电正变得越来越便宜。

On the other hand, we are hearing over the news that the solar power is getting cheaper and cheaper every day.

那么，为什么电费会急剧上涨呢？

Why is this surging in bills happening?

我认为有必要对这个问题进行更细致的分析，因为欧洲电费高昂的原因在于电价与天然气价格挂钩。

I think it's really important to bring some nuance into this because the reason why European electricity bills are high is because the electricity price is packed to the gas price.

它与可再生能源的价格没有任何关联。

It is not packed to the price of renewables in any way.

最大的挑战是全球天然气价格迅速飙升。

And the biggest challenge was that global gas prices spiked rapidly.

欧洲高度依赖从其他国家进口天然气，而这些国家无法控制，也无法掌控全球市场设定的价格。

And Europe is very reliant on the imports of gas from other countries that it cannot control, and it cannot control those global prices set at the global market.

这正是推高欧洲电价的根本原因。

And this is what has been driving up the electricity price in Europe.

我记得，根据个人经历，我许多在德国的朋友都不敢开暖气，因为实在太贵了。

And I remember from, like, personal experience, many of my friends back in Germany didn't dare to put on the heating because it was too expensive.

他们只能坐在寒冷中，因为他们付不起取暖所需的油气账单。

They were sitting there in the cold because it would they weren't able to pay for these oil and gas bills that their heating demanded.

所以我认为这才是我们正在面对的真实挑战。

So I think this is the real challenge that we're seeing.

对吧？

Right?

我们不应该误以为当前的化石燃料系统是任何意义上的安全的，因为它根本不是。

We shouldn't have the illusion that the fossil fuel system that we're currently having is in any way secure because it is not.

所以我认为让欧洲学到这一课的是，能源安全的未来在于可再生能源，因为你屋顶上的太阳能板，没人能从你那里夺走。

So I think what has taught Europe that lesson is that really the future of energy security comes with renewables because the solar panels that you have on your roof, no one will take them away from you.

你安装的风力发电设施，它们就在那里。

The wind farms that you have installed, they are there.

因此，这比依赖他人以你无法掌控的价格向你出售天然气要可靠得多。

So that's a lot more reliable than relying on someone else selling you gas at a price that you cannot define.

所以我认为这是一个巨大的挑战。

So I think that's a big challenge.

当然，你说得对。

Of course, you're right.

比如去年西班牙和葡萄牙发生的停电事件，让人们对电力系统及其运行方式产生了许多疑问。

Like, seeing the blackouts, for example, that happened in in Spain and Portugal last year, there's a lot of questions about the systems and how these work.

但我认为，可再生能源实际上并不是导致那些短缺和停电的原因。

But I think it's very clear that renewables weren't actually the factor in those shortages and in those blackouts.

问题更多在于不同发电设施未能按预期正常运行，属于系统性故障。

It was much more a system failure of different plants not operating while they were supposed to operate.

我认为，这给我们带来了很多需要思考的问题。

And this is something I think there are a lot of questions for us.

我们该如何真正构建一个灵活的电力系统？又该如何确保电力在需要时能够及时供应？

How do we really develop that flexible system, and how do we ensure that electricity is there when it is needed.

我同意Bowie的观点，储能在这方面非常重要。

And, I agree with Bowie that storage is a really important one for that.

我们也可以在电力需求端更具创造性，比如教育消费者：电力并非随时免费可用，有时电价更低，有时供应充足，而有时我们则不得不限电。

We can also become more creative when it comes to electricity demand, right, to teach consumers that electricity is not just freely available all of the time and that at some points, it's cheaper, and at some points, it's available, and at other points, we may have to cut down.

而这正是我们需要并可以融入系统中的灵活性。

And that's kind of the flexibility that we need and that we can build into the system as well.

但我觉得，从欧洲的角度来看，可再生能源是能源安全的未来。

But I think, yeah, from a European point of view, renewables are the future of energy security.

说实话，中国也是如此，尤其是因为中国正在生产所有这些技术。

And I think the same is true for China, to be honest, especially since China is producing all the technologies.

对吧？

Right?

它处于一个非常有利的位置，因为与天然气相比，它能生产自身所需，并且可以安装这些设施。

It's it's in a really good position because when we compare it to the gas example, it kind of produces what it needs, and it can install that.

从经济角度看，它已成为中国经济增长的重要推动力。

And thinking economically, it's become a really important driver of China's economic growth.

去年，清洁能源部门贡献了三分之一的GDP增长。

Clean energy sectors contributed a third of GDP growth last year.

因此，如果这些领域放缓，这就引发了一个问题：中国在多大程度上仍能实现华为所提到的未来十年5%的增长目标？如果这些领域放缓，它们可能会迅速从经济增长的推动力转变为拖累。

So if those were to slow down, that's also question to what extent China would still be able to hit those 5% growth targets that Huawei mentioned for the next decade, really, that if these sectors were to slow down, they could come become quickly a drag on the economy rather than that driver.

所以我认为中国处于一个非常独特的位置，它不仅掌控着整个制造和供应链，还具备进一步扩大产能的能力，从而真正实现能源安全，减少对化石燃料生产和进口的依赖。

So I think China's in a really unique position that it can it's it's it's both at the manufacturing supply chain of it, and it has the capability to still build out a lot more, and through that, really gain the energy security and dependence from fossil fuel production and fossil fuel imports.

贝琳达，在我们继续讨论中国及其能源体系之前，我想跟进一下你提到的构建更灵活的能源系统的问题。

And Belinda, before we get into, you know, China's topic, China's energy system again, I do want to follow-up on your flexibility, you know, building a more flexible energy system.

你想象中的这种系统会是什么样子？

How would you envision that system look like?

一般来说，我们并不是在讨论任何一个特定国家。

You know, in general, we're not talking about any country in particular.

我的意思是，这其实非常复杂。

I mean, it's really complex.

对吧？

Right?

我们通常习惯于认为，有一个大型发电厂为其他地方供电，再通过电网连接起来。

Like, I think we're very used to the idea that we have one big plant that supplies others, and then we have grid connecting it.

但我认为，未来的情况会大不相同：家庭屋顶会安装太阳能板，能源系统将更加分布式和去中心化，同时还会遍布各种规模的储能系统，从小型到大型都有。

But I think in the future, what it will look like a lot more is, yeah, that individual households would have solar panels on their roof, that it's a lot more distributed and a lot more decentralized, and then you have those decentralized storage systems as well, small storage system, big storage systems across.

然后你需要一个系统，能够迅速应对电力生产过剩或不足的情况，并建立连接这些系统的网络。

And then that you, yeah, have a system that can react very quickly to when there is electricity output in generation and when there is a shortfall and to have networks that connect that.

这种说法，总的来说，比较宽泛。

This kind of, like, speaking about it very broadly.

对吧？

Right?

显然，这要复杂得多。

Obviously, it's a lot more technical.

仍然有很多挑战有待解决，但我认为这是目前世界各国都在应对的挑战。

There are a lot of challenges still to be solved, but I think it's a challenge that most countries around the world are working on at the moment.

因此，这也带来了大量机会，可以交流经验、分享做法，共同推进这项工作。

So there's also a lot of opportunities to, you know, share notes and share experiences and work on this together.

是的。

Yeah.

说到经验分享，我想举个例子，就是中国可再生能源系统的规模，对我们中国自身来说，这也是一条学习曲线。

And, you know, speaking about sharing experiences, I think one example would be the scale of China's renewable system is that we are also sort of it's a learning curve for us as well here in China.

而且，我们在中囯所经历的情况，也可能发生在地球上其他国家。

And also, what we experienced here in China can also be happening in another country on this planet.

因此，对我们来说，沟通并保持开放的心态以接纳更多可能性非常重要，因为我之所以找你讨论电力系统的灵活性，是因为我想到一个关于未来能源系统的比喻：目前我们对电力的思考方式就像家里的自来水。

So it's very important for us to communicate and also keep minds open to more possibilities because we're talking about the reason I'm chasing up on you on the flexibility in the power system is that I remembered a metaphor analogy when it comes to the future energy system is that currently we are thinking about is like the water in our homes.

我们打开水龙头，水就出来了。

We open the tap, the water comes out.

我们关上水龙头，就没有水了。

We close the tap, there is no water.

而目前电力的运行方式基本上也是如此。

And this is also how basically electricity is run now.

但也许在未来，我可以在需要时获得电力，而当我不需要电力时，如果我家有富余的电力，比如来自我的新能源汽车或屋顶的太阳能板，我也可以把这些电力卖回电网。

But maybe in the future, I can get electricity when I want it, but when I don't want that electricity, but I have some in my home, like, for example, in my renewable vehicles or in my solar panels on my roofs, I can also sold them back to the system.

这不仅能为我带来收入，还能帮助那些此刻正需要电力的人。

It can generate some income for me and also can help with others who are in need of that electricity that I'm not using at the moment.

我不确定这是否也是中国科学家和行业人士所设想的未来场景之一。

I'm not sure if that is maybe one of the scenarios that Chinese scientists and industry insiders are also picturing for the future.

哦，是的，当然。

Oh, yeah, definitely.

但说实话，这不会在近期发生。

But honestly, it's not in the near future.

但可能在下一个五年计划中，我们会讨论这个问题。

But probably in the next five year plan, then we will talk about this.

你知道，最近电力行业有个大新闻。

You know, recently, we in the electricity industry, there is a big news.

有一家叫Octopus的公司。

There are company called the Octopus.

是的。

Yeah.

他们进入了中国市场。

They entered the Chinese market.

他们以前在英国和欧洲开展业务。

They used to be in in The UK and in Europe, two businesses.

他们所做的事情正是你所说的。

And what they are doing is exactly what you said.

所以他们帮助家庭构建自己的微电网。

So they help the home to construct their own micro grid.

也许他们会安装自己的太阳能光伏系统，比如屋顶太阳能，自己发电，然后还可以卖给电网。

Probably, they will have their own own solar PV, a roof rooftop solar, and they can generate electricity for their own, and then they can also sell it to the grid.

那么他们是如何实现这一点的呢？

And how do they achieve this?

他们使用人工智能和算法，正是靠这个赚了很多钱。

They use artificial intelligence, they use algorithms, and that's how they make a lot of money.

最近，他们在两位最高领导人会晤后不久进入了中国市场。

And recently, they entered the Chinese market just after the visit between the two top leaders.

哦，我觉得

Oh, I think

费费带领了一个代表团。

Fei Fei got a delegation Yes.

到中国。

To China.

是的。

Yes.

这在此次会晤中已经确定了。

That was settled during this meeting.

所以毫无疑问，他们可能会将他们的经验、算法，以及技术和人才带到中国。

So definitely, they they might bring their experience and their algorithms and probably their technologies and talents to China.

而我们也有自己的人才，因此我们可以共同应对中国面临的挑战。

And we also have our own talents, so we can face the challenge in China together.

顺便提一下，因为章鱼公司实际上是我家的电力供应商，虽然我不想为章鱼公司做广告，但这确实很有趣。

On that anecdotally, because that octopus is actually my electricity provider, and not to make any advertisement for octopus, but it is quite interesting.

对吧？

Right?

因为我们家安装了智能电表，可以测量我们的家庭用电量。

Because we have a smart meter which measures our electricity consumption in our household.

如果英国电网的电力供应增加，Octopus就会通知我，比如接下来两小时可以免费用电。

And if there is more electricity generation in the grid in The UK, then Octopus notifies me and tells me, say, the next two hours, you can use electricity for free.

然后我就决定那时候洗衣服，因为不用花钱。

And then I decide to do my laundry then because it's free.

所以这就是这个系统的基本理念。

So this is kind of the idea of the system.

对吧？

Right?

这非常令人兴奋。

And that's quite exciting.

他们也可以告诉我，比如接下来两小时可能会出现电力短缺。

And they can also tell me, like, oh, maybe in the next two hours, there will be a bit of a shortfall.

那时候就别洗衣服了之类的。

Maybe don't do your laundry then or whatever.

而这种机制是在家庭层面实现的。

And this is on the household scale.

对吧？

Right?

但你也可以在工业规模上这样做。

But you can also do that on an industrial scale.

我认为，是的，这就是Octopus真正令人兴奋的原因。

And I think, yeah, that's why Octopus, is really exciting.

而且，我也非常感兴趣，想看看他们与中国合作伙伴在中国会怎么做，因为这确实如此。

And, I'm also really interested to see, same as Bowie, what they're going to do with Chinese partners in China because this yeah.

这其中有巨大的潜力。

There's so much potential for that.

哦，这太有趣了。

Oh, that's so interesting.

很有趣。

Interesting.

比如，你手机上有个应用，贝琳达，会提醒你接下来两小时有免费电力。

Like, you you have a nab on your phone, Belinda, that sort of alerts you, like, free electricity for the next two hours.

说吧。

Go ahead.

是的。

Yes.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

如果我手机上有这个应用，我就把我的面包表格拿出来。

I'll I'll take out my bread spreadsheet if I got the app on my phone.

但说到未来的挑战，我认为章鱼公司可以作为一个例子，目前只有一家公司。

But speaking about challenges in the future, I think Octopus can be one example, and there's only one company.

它赚了很多钱，这确实说明了这类技术在市场上的潜力。

The fact that it made a lot of money tell the truth that the potential this kind of technology that has in the market.

但同时也存在其他挑战。

But also, there are other challenges.

我们正在讨论如何在电力系统中扩大可再生能源的规模，甚至实现电力系统的全面转型。

We're talking about scaling up renewable energy in our power system or even a total transformation of our power system.

贝琳达和鲍威，你们之前都谈到了储能。

Belinda and Bowie, you both talked about storage before.

我记得去年在上海的一次活动中，去年年底的时候，他们就在那个活动上做了一个小调查。

And I remembered at an event in Shanghai last year, in the end of last year, they did a bit of a small survey just at that event.

他们询问与会者：在中国，你认为新能源发展最大的潜力是什么？

They asked people about what do you see the biggest potential when it comes to new energy development here in China?

答案有很多，比如氢能、碳捕集与封存（CCUS），还有储能。

The answer, there are a lot of answers like hydrogen, there are CCUS capture carbon capture and also energy storage.

而储能位列榜首。

And energy storage is the top one on the list.

这让我感到非常好奇。

That's very also got me curious.

为什么储能对今年、对2026年如此重要？

Why is storage so important for this year, for 2026?

我认为，最初电力部门脱碳主要有两条路径。

Well, I think initially there were two major pathways for decarbonizing electricity sector.

一条是继续使用化石燃料，但为其配备碳捕集与封存技术。

One is that you use we still use fossil fuels, but you install our CCUS on it.

另一条是可再生能源加储能。

And another is renewables plus storage.

我认为，从当前情况或行业现状来看，碳捕集与封存技术仍然非常昂贵。

And I think from the current situation or the situation in the industry is that the CCUS is still very costly.

如果我们谈论储能，就会发现，随着电价的波动，这些储能系统，尤其是针对工业用户，已经开始盈利，特别是在峰谷电价差异巨大的省份。

And if we talk about the storage, we'll see that with those fluctuation in electricity prices, those energy storage or especially for industrial users, they start to make money, especially in provinces where the peak prices and off peak prices are so different.

这两种电价之间的差距很大。

The gap between the two prices are big.

因此，我认为这促使企业更加积极地投资储能，也让人们开始关注它。

So I think that's why it motivated the businesses to invest more in energy storage, and people might get to know about it.

我认为，这还与我们电动汽车的发展有关。

I think also it's because the development of our electric vehicles.

最初，我们确实有汽车产业，但并不强大。

Initially, we do have our vehicle industry, but it's not strong.

很弱。

It's weak.

在最近十年里，我们逐渐成为汽车行业的强大势力。

And in recent ten years, in recent decade, we are becoming the big power, the big force in the auto industry.

随着中国电动汽车的发展，电动汽车需要什么呢？

And with the development of China's EV, well, EV needs what?

需要电池。

Needs battery.

而我们的成本

And we our the cost

我们说的储能也是一种电池。

We're talking about energy storage is also a form of battery.

是的。

Yes.

这降低了电力存储的成本。

And that brings down the cost for electricity storage.

我认为这就是为什么它从补贴转向市场化的原因。

I think that's why it goes from subsidy to marketize.

这非常有趣。

That's very interesting.

我们可以关注一下可能的新技术，以提高这些电池的效率，以及到今年年底、2026年时这些电池的外观会有怎样的不同。

We can keep an eye on perhaps possibly new technologies to enhance the efficiency of these batteries and also how different these batteries would be looking like by the end of this year, by the 2026.

实际上，我还有一组关于储能的数据，来自中国国家能源局。

And I've also got a set of data here actually also about energy storage is coming from the National Energy Administration in China.

数据显示，新型储能装机容量——主要是电池——占全球总量的40%以上。

It says that the installed capacity of new type energy storage, mostly batteries, accounted for over 40% of the global total.

所以这些所谓的巨型充电宝，让风能和太阳能发电更加稳定。

So these mega power banks, quote unquote, they call it, make wind and solar power generation more stable.

因此，这可能是当前可再生能源发展的一个方向。

So this could be one direction that the renewable energy is going at the current stage.

另一个我认为可能很有争议的点是贝琳达提到的，关于煤炭在系统中的作用。

And another point I think can be very contentious is Belinda touched on it, about the role of coal in the system.

尽管到2025年，我认为风能和太阳能发电在中国的占比已经超过了火电，但它仍然是我们电力系统中非常重要的一部分。

Even though in 2025, I think the share of wind and solar power generation has surpassed thermal power in China, but is still a big part, a major part of our power system.

而这正是争议所在，因为一些国家、一些分析人士认为，世界必须逐步淘汰煤炭、天然气和石油等化石燃料。

And that is the contentious part because some countries, some analysts believe that the world need to phase out fossil fuels like coal, like gas, like oil.

但也有其他国家、政府和分析人士认为，即使在我们所设想的遥远未来，我们仍需要保留一小部分化石燃料。

And there are other countries and governments and analysts believe that we still need a small part of it even in the far future that we are envisioning.

我想了解一下你们对煤炭作用的看法。

I'm curious about your guys' take on the role of coal.

现实地说，煤炭在未来生活中会扮演什么角色？

Like, realistically, what role would coal play in our future life?

我的意思是，哦。

I mean Oh.

我可能比较保守。

I might be conservative.

所以我认为，在未来至少十年到二十年里，煤炭在中国电力系统中仍将发挥非常重要的作用。

So I I think at least in the next ten or twenty years, coal will still play a very important role in China's electricity system.

这背后有很多原因。

And there are many reasons.

一方面，正如贝琳达提到的，可再生能源灵活性不足，无法按需调度，具有不可预测性。

One is that as Belinda has also mentioned that the renewables renewables are flexible and they are not dispatchable, unpredictable.

因此，对于电力系统而言，我们需要煤炭作为备用资源。

So in for the system, we need a code to be the reserve to be the reserve resources.

另一个原因是，我们还需要煤炭来保障能源安全。

And another thing is that we also need coal for the energy security issue.

当然，我同意贝琳达的观点，我们需要发展可再生能源以保障能源安全，因为中国石油和天然气资源不足。

Of course, I agree with Belinda that we need to develop renewables for the energy security because in China, we don't have enough oil, gas.

我们虽然煤炭资源相对丰富，但石油和天然气严重短缺，大量依赖进口。

We're sort of reaching coal, but we we don't have enough oil and gas, and we we import a lot.

因此，从这个角度看，如果我们不得不使用化石燃料，就必须高度依赖煤炭。

So in that sense, if we have to use fossil fuels, we need to rely heavily on coal.

否则，当出现地缘政治紧张时，我们的能源安全将受到损害。

Otherwise, when there is geopolitical tension, then our energy security would be suffer.

即使有了能源存储等技术，我们仍然需要一部分煤炭

Even with technologies like energy storage in place, we'll still needing a part of coal in

是的。

the Yes.

做。

Do.

因为能源存储只能短期储存。

Because energy storage only can store in short run.

例如，今天有多余的电力，你可以存在电池里，明天再用。

So for example, today you have redundant power, you store it in the battery, and tomorrow you use it.

但三个月或六个月后呢？

But how about in three months or six months?

例如，在云南，水力发电量很大。

For example, in Yunnan, there is a lot of hydropower.

在降雨量不足的年份，水电停止运作时，你如何依赖电池？

In a year where there's no not enough rainfalls, and then the hydropower stop working, how do you rely on batteries?

因为电池本身并不发电。

Because it doesn't generate electricity itself.

持续几个月。

For a couple of months.

是的。

Yes.

所以从长远来看，那些燃煤电厂仍然非常重要。

So for long run for longer, you know, period, those coal coal fired power plants are still very important.

我认为在短期内，这确实是正确的。

I think in the short term, that's certainly true.

但我确实认为，煤炭在电力结构中的作用正在发生显著变化。

But I do think we're seeing quite a significant change to the role that coal is playing in the power mix.

因为在中国，煤炭长期以来一直是电力生产的基石。

Because, you know, in China, it's it was kind of the the cornerstone of electricity production for many decades.

对吧？

Right?

但过去几年，我们明显看到正在远离这种模式。

But we're seeing a very clear shift away from that over the last couple of years.

所以在过去两年，清洁能源已经能够满足电力需求的增长。

So in the last two years, clean energy was able to meet more than the demand increase of electricity.

华为曾表示，中国仍然有巨大的电力需求。

So Huawei was saying China still has a lot of electricity demand.

对吧？

Right?

而且需求仍在增长，这确实属实，也与许多其他国家大不相同。

And it's still growing, and that's very true, and that's quite different from many other countries.

但清洁能源的发电量增长得更快。

But electricity from clean energy is growing faster than that.

因此，煤炭在电力结构中的占比已经下降。

So that has brought down the share of coal in the power mix.