当天气预报变成财务预测

讨论让世界持续运转。

Discussion keeps the world turning.

这是圆桌论坛。

This is Roundtable.

您正在收听圆桌论坛。

You're listening to Roundtable.

我是尼尔·霍林，与史蒂夫和李飞飞一同参与。

I'm Neil Holling, joined by Steve and Fei Fei.

马上开始。

Coming up soon.

市场通常被描述为一个由数据、预测和基本面驱动的理性系统。

Markets are often described as a rational system driven by data, forecasts, and fundamentals.

相比之下，天气则显得更加物理化、本地化，且略带不可预测性。

Weather, by contrast, feels physical, local, and a little unpredictable.

但事实上，这两者可能一直悄然相连。

But in reality, the two might have been quietly connected.

本集探讨了气候条件如何越来越多地被视为金融信号，而非背景噪音。

This episode looks at how climate conditions are increasingly being treated not as background noise, but as financial signals.

你开始规律锻炼。

And you start exercising regularly.

你睡得更早了。

You sleep earlier.

你吃得更健康了。

You eat better.

但讽刺的是，你却生病了。

And then, ironically, you get sick.

发烧、喉咙痛，感冒反复发作。

A fever, a sore throat, a cold that keeps coming back.

这感觉像是一种背叛。

It feels like a betrayal.

锻炼不是应该让你更健康吗？

Wasn't exercise supposed to make you healthier?

如果这种情况也发生过在你身上，不要错过这次讨论。

If it has ever happened to you too, don't miss this discussion.

但在那之前。

But before that.

起初，天气和股价似乎没有关联。

At first, weather and stock prices don't seem connected.

一个由大气压和季节周期支配，另一个则由信心、预期和资本流动决定。

One is governed by atmospheric pressure and seasonal cycles, the other by confidence, expectations and capital flows.

但随着时间推移，经济学和投资者注意到了某种模式。

But over time, economics and investors have noticed pattern.

当天气变得极端时，市场不会保持平静。

When weather turns extreme, markets don't stay calm.

热浪给能源系统带来压力。

Heat waves strain energy systems.

大雨会延误建筑工程。

Heavy rain delays construction.

风暴预警在任何实际损害发生之前就会引发焦虑。

Storm warnings trigger anxiety long before any damage occurs.

而越来越多地，这些反应会在市场数据中留下可测量的痕迹。

And increasingly, those reactions leave measurable traces in market data.

在中国，研究人员现在正利用人工智能大规模研究这些关联。

In China, researchers are now using artificial intelligence to study these connections at scale.

那么，天气究竟是如何被定价到市场中的，为什么这很重要？

So how exactly does weather get priced into markets, and why does it matter?

是的。

Yeah.

这是一个非常有趣的话题，可以看到天气和股票市场之间有多么紧密的关联。

This is a really interesting topic to see how weather and the stock market are very, very closely related.

这是在中国复旦大学和中国气象局共同开发的一种新型人工智能工具。

This is a new AI tool developed here in China at Fudan University and the China Meteorological Administration.

他们共同合作开发了这个工具，名为上机。

They work together on this one, and it's called Shangji.

Shangji 正在通过根据天气预报预测市场动向来改变股市格局。

And Shangji is changing the stock market game by predicting market moves based on weather forecast.

想象一下，你手机上有个天气应用，你确实有。

So imagine that you had an app on your phone for the weather, which you do.

是的。

Mhmm.

但想象一下，这个天气应用还能告诉你股市会如何反应，而它现在并不能。

But imagine that weather app could also tell you how the stock market will react, which it does not.

但 Shangji 就有点像这样。

But that's kind of what Shangji is.

它是一个拥有特定任务的 AI 工具。

It's this AI tool that has one specific job.

它能发现过去天气与过去股价之间的隐藏关联，然后利用这些模式预测未来天气到来时股票会发生什么变化。

It finds hidden patterns linking past weather to past stock prices, and then it uses those patterns to predict what will happen to stocks when future weather hits.

这可以说是一种前所未有的工具，至少在规模或透明度上是如此。

It's really kind of an unprecedented tool on perhaps this scale or at least this level of transparency.

一般来说，我们大概能感受到这种联系。

In general, we can kinda get to the connection.

这是一种很模糊的感觉。

It's a very vague feeling.

这是一种无法衡量的东西，但我们能体会到。

It is something that is not measurable, but we get it.

如果是极端天气，人们可能不会出门太多，消费也会减少，从而对股市产生一定影响。

If it's extreme weather, perhaps people would not be going out a lot, spending a lot, which would in turn affect the price market well, the stock market a little bit.

这是一种很模糊的感觉。

It's a very vague feeling.

但具体来说，它是如何影响市场的呢？

But exactly, how does it move the markets?

我的意思是，背后有什么具体的逻辑吗？

I mean, what are some concrete logic behind it?

主要是，天气会影响股市。

Well, majorly, weather can affect the stock markets

通过两种明确的方式。

in two clear ways.

一种是直接冲击。

One is the direct hit.

例如，中国中部正在发生干旱，

For example, a drought is happening in central part of China,

而这种干旱会摧毁大量农作物，从而导致农业股票下跌。

Well, and that drought kills a lot of weed crops, and that can lead to agriculture stock drops.

这就是直接的影响。

That is the direct ones.

而间接的、不太明显的影响则是另一种强大的力量，这是向吉追踪的。

And the less direct, indirect hit is the less obvious, but can also be a powerful force that Xiangji tracks.

例如，研究表明，仅仅预警恶劣天气就足以在任何实际损害发生前导致股价暴跌。

For example, research shows that the mere warning of bad weather can crash crash stocks before any damage occurs.

例如，一家公司总部位于，我不知道，深圳这座城市，而台风警报被发布了。

For example, a company is headquartered, I don't know, in the in the city of Shenzhen, and a typhoon alert is issued.

这可能会影响该公司的股价。

And that can affect the share prices of that particular company.

这些股价会因为天气红色警报而受到影响，你刚才说的是什么？

And the reason that those share prices would be affected because of that red alert for the weather what did you say?

台风？

Typhoon?

台风。

Typhoon.

是的。

Yeah.

台风预警是因为大型投资者，比如基金经理和机构交易员，他们讨厌不确定性。

Typhoon warning is because big investors like fund managers and institutional traders, they hate uncertainty.

所以当恶劣天气模式逼近时，这对特定公司来说就是一个潜在混乱的预警信号。

So when a severe weather pattern is approaching, that's a warning signal for potential chaos for that particular company.

例如，如果出现台风，你可能会遇到供应链中断。

For example, if there's a typhoon, you might have a break in a supply chain.

你可能会遇到港口关闭。

You might have port closures.

你可能会损失生产。

You might have lost production.

因此，从大投资者的角度来看，他们的本能是先卖出再问问题，他们这样做是为了保护自己的投资组合。

So their instinct from the big investor side is to sell first and ask questions later, and they do this because they want to protect their portfolios.

所以Shangji的设计目的是发现并预测这种自动的风险规避或抛售反应。

So Shangji is designed to spot and predict this automatic risk off or sell off reaction.

所以请记住Shangji的作用，它会分析过去几十年的大量天气模式。

So remember what Shangji does, it looks at weather patterns, a lot of them from the previous decades.

我不知道它能追溯到多久以前，但核心是一种相关性。

I don't know how far back it goes, and it it's a core it's a correlation.

对吧？

Right?

所以当天气是这种状况时，股市是如何反应的？

So when the weather was this way, how did the stock markets react?

它利用所有这些历史数据，帮助金融机构以及不同行业的公司，将这些信息和数据作为预测工具和预警机制，使它们能够在极端天气事件实际发生之前采取行动。

It uses all of that previous data to help institutions, financial institutions, to help companies as well in different sectors use that information, that data as a predictive tool, as a warning, and it allows them to take action before that extreme weather event actually happens.

所以我在市场上买了A股票，根据上机的预测，即将下大雨。

So I buy stock a in the market, and according to Shangji, a heavy rain is coming.

我可以卖掉它来避免损失吗？

I can sell it to prevent my loss?

好的。

Okay.

所以你是从你个人的角度来思考这个问题的。

So you're you're thinking about this from your own personal point of view.

对吧？

Right?

就像你是投资者一样。

Like, you're the investor.

我是。

I am.

上机并不是你早上打开手机、说‘早上好，上机’的那个应用。

Shangji is not an app on your phone that you open in the morning and say, good morning, Shangji.

今天我该投资哪里？

Where should I invest my money today?

这正是我想做的。

That's what I wanna do.

这不是它的用途。

That's not what this is.

这是一个为大型资金玩家设计的工具，比如国内金融机构、大型证券公司、国有银行或资产管理公司。

This is a tool for the big money players who move markets like domestic financial institutions, like major security firms or state owned banks or asset management companies.

你们有国家社会保障基金和大型养老基金参与其中。

You've got your national social security fund and large pension funds that are involved in this.

你们还有大型国有企业和私营企业。

You've got your large state owned and private enterprises.

想想农业、能源、交通和保险行业，它们都希望了解自身的财务风险。

Think of agriculture or energy or transportation and insurance, and they all want to understand their own financial risk.

再次强调，这不是给个人投资者使用的应用或工具。

Again, this is not an app or a tool for individual investors.

所以它是为

So it's a recommendation for

购买哪只股票提供建议。

which stock you buy.

是的。

Yeah.

不是。

No.

你不会打开这个应用，然后它告诉你今天因为天气晴朗就投资公司A。

You're not gonna open the app, and it's gonna say invest in company a today because it's hot and sunny outside.

不是。

No.

如果类似史蒂夫所描述的那种情况出现在你的手机上，千万别相信。

If something like that like that, like what Steve has described happened on your phone, don't believe in it.

所以它不存在，因为它确实不存在。

So it does not exist because it does

它不存在。

not exist.

所以我认为昌吉对我们来说不是一个工具。

So so I guess Changji is not a tool for us.

它不能预测天气。

It doesn't predict the weather.

它也不能预测股市，当然，我认为这个平台就像一个公式，它会回顾比如一百年的天气模式和股市价格，然后推导出不同的公式。

It doesn't predict the stock market for And sure as I think the I think the platform works like a formula that it looks at like looks back, I don't know, a hundred years of weather patterns and stock market prices, and then worked out different formulas.

所以当大型投资者可以查看这个公式时，是的。

So when invest big investors can look at this formula Yeah.

来预测他们的财务决策。

To predict their financial decisions.

正确。

Correct.

好的。

Alright.

所以之前我们知道存在相关性，但并不清楚这种联系有多精确，或者仅仅因为今天看到了天气预报，我们能多准确地预测股市的变化。

So previously, we know there's the correlation, but we don't know how exact the link can be or how close we can predict the change in stock market just because we saw weather forecast today.

嗯。

Mhmm.

但现在，由于这个应用，我们有了更好的理解。

But now, because of this app, we kinda have a better understanding.

我们知道，当出现大雪时，可能会对我的公司股价产生影响。

We know that with this heavy snow, something might happen in the stock market about my company's stock price.

那么作为一家公司，我能做些什么呢？

So as a company, what can I do?

我无法阻止大雪的到来。

I cannot stop the heavy snow from coming.

对。

Correct.

但如果你知道大雪即将来临，就可以采取相应的措施。

But if you know the heavy snow is coming, then you can act accordingly.

假设你是一家主要的水果生产企业

So let's say that you have a major fruit producing company

我喜欢这个说法。

I like that.

比如在新疆之类的地方，下了一场大雪。

In Xinjiang or something like that, and there's a big snow.

我们就以大雪为例，或者严重的寒潮，好的。

Let's use the big snow as an example or a severe cold snap Sure.

即将到来。

Is coming.

因此，商机的数据会告诉你的公司，历史上每当出现大寒潮，你的股价就会下跌5%，因为投资者担心你的杏子、葡萄、牛油果或其他产品会受损。

So Shangji's data will tell your company, historically, your stock drops 5% when a big cold snap comes because investors fear damage to your apricots or your grapes or your avocados or whatever it is that you produce.

而过去，水果生产商的应对方式通常是：哦，寒潮要来了。

Now the old response from the company from the fruit maker, fruit grower would be, oh, well, cold weather's coming.

让我们希望我们的果园能够挺过这一关，同时也希望我们的投资者不要抛售我们的股票，因为根据上机的数据，寒潮来袭时股价会下跌5%，而这家公司的管理层只会试图应对这个问题。

Let's hope that our orchards will survive and let's hope also that our investors don't dump our stock because we know from Shangji, a cold snap hits, the stock price will drop 5% and the management of that company will just try to figure it out.

这是一种被动应对，而不是主动预防。

It's about being reactive as opposed to proactive.

这是老办法，但新方法完全不同。

That's the old way, but the new way is completely different.

因此，在寒潮来临之前，公司会采取两个关键步骤进行应对。

So the company makes moves before that cold weather snap comes in two critical steps.

第一步是运营计划。

Number one is the operational plan.

因此，这家水果种植公司会执行一种减损计划，以减少实际损失。

So the company, the fruit grower, will execute a kind of mitigation plan to reduce the real damage.

这可以通过多种方式实现。

Now that can come in many different ways.

也许种植者会启动防霜系统，比如喷水装置和鼓风机，或者与云南的合作伙伴温室签订合同，确保备用杏子或牛油果的供应，从而维持供应链的稳定。

Maybe the growers will activate frost prevention systems like water sprinklers and wind machines, or maybe they will secure contracts to secure backup apricots or backup avocados from a partner greenhouse in Yunnan, for example, to ensure that their supply remains strong.

他们还可能调整农业保险，并联系保险公司，在寒潮实际发生前启动评估程序。

They also might alter their agricultural insurance and contact the provider to initiate the assessment process before it actually begins.

这是第一步。

That's step one.

第二步，这一步是为了保护股价。

Step two, now this is where we're protecting the stock price.

这一步涉及与金融市场的关键参与者进行沟通。

This is where the communication with the financial movers, if you will, takes place.

这家水果公司的首席执行官将召开一次紧急会议，向证券交易所通报或发布详细的公告，说明他们的应对计划。

The CEO of the fruit company will have a meeting, probably a very urgent meeting, briefing or issuing a detailed disclosure to the stock exchanges about their plan.

基本上，这通电话的内容是：我们知道寒潮即将来临，也知道寒潮来临时我们的股价通常会下跌5%，但我们已经启动了我们的应对和保护计划，因此我们不认为这对我们的供应链、整体供应或作物会产生重大影响。

So basically, that telephone conversation will be is we know the cold snap is coming, we know that our stocks typically dip 5% when the cold snaps come, but we have activated our plan, our protection plan, therefore, we do not expect a big impact to our supply chains, to our supply overall, our our crop.

所以你们不必担心。

So you don't need to worry.

你们不必抛售我们的股票。

You don't need to dump our stock.

你可以告诉投资者这一点。

You can tell the investors that.

以前，作为公司管理层，我只会对恶劣天气做出反应

So previously, as a company management, I only react to the bad weather

然后寄希望于好转。

And hope.

然后寄希望于好转。

And hope.

但现在，我不但通过调动资产、与合作伙伴沟通来应对恶劣天气，还主动通知公司所有利益相关者我正在采取的措施，让他们了解潜在的风险或可能的影响

But now, not only am I reacting to the bad weather in the sense that I move around my asset, I talk to my partner companies, but I also notify all of the stakeholders of my company about the things that I'm doing, the proactive approach I'm taking, so that they know the risk or the potential

他们知道你已经制定了应对计划。

They know you have a plan in place.

他们知道我有应对计划，而且我正在消除他们心中的不确定性。

They know I have a plan in place, and I am removing the uncertainty away from their mind.

恐慌。

The panic.

从他们心中消除恐慌。

The panic from their mind.

恐慌，还有可能发生在我们公司的不确定性。

The panic, And also the uncertain our uncertainty probably will happen to my company.

是的。

Yep.

所以他们知道，哦，一切都在掌控之中。

So they know that, oh, everything is under control.

对。

Correct.

作为管理层，如果我足够聪明，能在上机App之前就做出这些决策，那当然很好。

And as the management, if I'm smart enough to make those decisions, that's great even before the Shangji app.

但作为一个可能属于中层的人，我需要说服我的上司做出所有这些主动决策。

But as someone who is probably middle class, I need to convince my boss to do to make all these proactive decisions.

而这需要上机App提供的数据，让他们明白确实存在关联，他们真的需要这么做。

And that needs the data from Shangji to let them know there really is a link, and they really need to do this.

你的老板才应该是负责这件事的人。

Your boss is the person who should be taking the reins on this.

没错。

That's true.

他们不应该被自己的员工提醒才行动。

They shouldn't have to be told by some of their employees.

是的。

Yes.

但有个小问题。

But one tiny question.

我们真的这么在意短期的股价下跌吗？

Do we really care about a temporary stock dip this much?

我的意思是，当我试图向老板说明这件事的重要性时，我会告诉他们为什么存在这种关联。

I mean, when I'm trying to convince my boss it's something important, I tell them why there is a correlation.

这是确定无疑的。

It is definite.

而且我也会

And I also do I

我是不是还得告诉他们，为什么这件事他们真的需要采取行动？

need to tell them how come it's something that they really need to act on?

我认为每家公司都会密切关注股价，对股价哪怕小幅下跌也非常在意，主要是因为股价暴跌会削弱公司的资产负债表。

Well, I think every company watch their shares pretty closely, and they are pretty mindful about even a small dip in their prices, primarily because, you know, a plunging stock can weaken the company's balance sheet.

因此，这带来了财务风险。

So there is the financial risk coming from that.

然后还有声誉风险，你会因为某家公司的状况登上新闻。

And then there was this reputation risk that you will be on the news per certain company.

股价因这种情况暴跌，你会登上新闻，这会损害公司作为可靠合作伙伴和市场可靠参与者的形象。

Share the the share prices plummeted because of this condition, and you will be on the news, and that will damage the company's standing as a reliable partner and reliable player on the market.

此外，这对员工来说意味着他们的股票激励计划价值缩水，这也让公司难以留住顶尖人才。

Also, that also means for employees, their stock incentive plans lose value, and so that also makes the company hard to retain top talent.

所以，当谈到股价下跌时，这不仅仅关乎财务回报。

So when it comes to to a dip in the stock price, it's not just about financial returns.

这关系到他们的声誉、运营命脉，以及战略定位。

It's coming to their reputation, coming to their operational lifeline, and also strategic point position.

所以这是一件大事。

So it's a big deal.

嗯，声誉是一方面，当股价下跌时，这确实令人担忧。

Well, I mean, yeah, reputation is one thing, and and and that is a concern when your stock prices fall.

但另一方面，绝对是财务方面的问题。

But another thing is absolutely the financial side of things.

因为如果你的股价下跌，假设你是一个想扩张的牛油果种植商，而扩张需要贷款。

Because if your stock price falls, and let's say that you're a you're an avocado grower that's looking to expand, but to expand, you need loans.

你需要银行的信贷。

You need credit from the banks.

但银行会看着你说：等等。

But the bank will look at you and say, well, wait a minute.

你的股价刚刚下跌了7%。

Your stock price just fell by 7%.

嗯，这可不太妙。

Well, that's not really good.

所以，好吧，有两件事。

So, okay, there's two things.

第一，我们可能根本不会给你贷款，但如果给，我们很可能会提高利率来确保收回资金。

Number one, we might not give you a loan at all, but if we do, then we're probably gonna charge you a higher interest rate to get that money back.

还有一个严重的财务问题。

There's one big financial problem.

这是另一个问题。

Here's another one.

你听说过敌意收购吗？

You ever hear of a hostile takeover?

如果你的股价大幅下跌，就会有一些公司觉得这是个不错的买入机会。

So if your stock price falls a lot, there are companies out there that will say, oh, this is a good buying opportunity.

他们会买下所有股票，然后呢，鳄梨公司的首席执行官先生？

They'll snatch up all that stock, and guess what, mister CEO of the Avocado Company?

你被解雇了。

You're gone.

啊。

Ah.

要被秃鹫吞了。

Gonna the vulture.

是的。

Yes.

没错。

Exactly.

他们看到了一个绝佳的商业机会，趁你的股价跌到如此低谷时收购了你的公司，这正是他们所做的，而你已不在他们的未来计划之中。

They saw a good business opportunity to buy your business because the stock prices were so low that that's exactly what they did, and you are not a part of their future plans.

我们正在从一家公司的角度来解释这种情况。

And we are explaining the situation from a perspective of one company.

对。

Yes.

这非常重要。

It's very important.

但总体而言，如果我们纵观整个财务状况、一个行业乃至整个国家的经济前景，我们就能理解为何不确定性确实是无法预测却影响巨大的因素——这意味着，如果这种算法能够消除这一因素，或至少降低其影响，就能以非常积极的方式影响整个行业和整个市场。

But overall, if we take a look at the entire financial situation, the entire economic outlook of an industry or even of an entire country, we would understand how come the uncertainties are really factors that cannot be predicted and yet have a huge impact, which means if this kind of algorithm can remove that one factor or at least make it make the effect of it, the influence of it slightly lower, it can affect the entire industry, the entire market in a very positive way.

是的。

Yeah.

例如，假设一场特大洪水袭击了珠江港，也就是珠江三角洲——中国主要的制造业中心。

For example, let's say extreme flood hits the Pearl River Harbor, which is the Pearl River Delta, which is a major manufacturing hub in China.

许多电子制造商因此面临问题，股价开始暴跌。

And a lot of electrics manufacturers, they there's they face problems, and their stock start to plummet it.

这将导致整个行业的崩溃，分析师因恐慌而下调该地区整个制造业板块的评级。

And then that will lead to a sector wide crash, like analyst spooked downgrade the entire manufacturing sector from this region.

投资者变得紧张，开始抛售该地区其他制造类股票，甚至可能蔓延到中国其他地区。

And then investors are getting nervous and start to sell other manufacturing shares from the same region, and even it can expand to other regions here in China.

随后，银行体系在这一支柱产业上开始感受到压力，也开始对放贷变得谨慎。

And then the banking system start to see stresses in this pillar sector and then becomes cautious about lending as well.

所以你永远无法预知

So you you never know the

连锁反应。

ripple effects.

因此这几乎是必要的。

So it's necessary almost.

我们看到中国在推出这种大型国家支持的公共AI模型方面处于领先地位。

And we see China being the pioneer in launching such major state supported public AI model.

这表明了其明确的目的；同时，我们也看到其他国家通过私人融资和西方对冲基金使用类似数据进行优先交易，其目标并非公共稳定，但哲学理念不同——然而我们仍看到AI的使用和应用呈现出相似趋势。

It indicates the exact purpose, and we also see other countries pursuing similar goals through private finance and western hedge funds use similar data for priority trading, not public stability, but the philosophical approach differs yet we see similar trends in the use of AI and the application of it.

总的来说，我们希望这种不仅限于‘向机AI’，还包括其他能够揭示过去仅模糊关联、却缺乏可量化指标的现象或趋势之间关联性的AI，能帮助我们更好地理解世界，成为国家发展的预警系统，并反过来让我们提前强化应对措施，以便下次类似问题出现时能够更好地应对。

So in general, we hope that this kind of not only the Xiangji AI, but also other kinds of AI that can draw the correlation between two phenomena or two trends that used to vaguely link with each other yet do not have a measurable indicators can help us understand the world in a better way, can serve as early warning system for the national development, and can, in turn, allow us to reinforce the potential problems so that we can deal with them the next time they arrive.

您正在收听《圆桌论坛》，接下来即将播出。

You're listening to Roundtable coming up next.

让我们欢迎并讨论这样一个事实：有时锻炼并不完全有益于你。

Let's welcome let's talk about the fact that sometimes exercise is not entirely good for you.

为什么会这样？

And why is that?

别去。

Don't go

不同的视角？

different perspectives?

敬请收听《圆桌论坛》，在这里，东西方交汇，理解是目标。

Then tune in to Roundtable, where east meets west and understanding is the goal.

您正在收听《圆桌论坛》，我是史蒂夫·哈瑟利和费费。

You're listening to Roundtable with me, Steve Hatherley and Fei Fei.

史蒂夫，你经常锻炼。

Steve, you exercise a lot.

你刚开始锻炼时，有过什么经历吗？

Have you had any experience when you start exercising?

你有没有觉得，自己反而比预期更不健康？

You feel like you're less healthy than you expected?

感冒了？

Catching a cold?

这通常发生在刚开始锻炼的时候。

Usually happens in the beginning of exercise.

我认为当你的身体还不适应时，练完 gym 后，可能一两天，或者三天，具体看你锻炼得多累，是的，就是感觉特别不舒服。

I think when your body's not used to it, you leave the gym, and then for maybe a day or two or maybe three, depending on how hard you exercise, yeah, you just don't feel really good.

以前有一种说法叫‘开放窗口理论’，这个理论认为，在剧烈运动后的三到七十二小时内，你的免疫系统会被抑制或暂时关闭，在这段时间内，人们认为身体的防御能力太低，无法抵抗病毒和细菌。

And there was kind of a thought out there that They called it the open window theory, and that theory was that for three to seventy two hours after strenuous exercise, your immune system is suppressed or temporarily shut down, and during that window, during that seventy two hour period, it was thought that the body's defenses were too low to fight off viruses and, bacteria.

但在过去几十年里，运动免疫学的研究表明，最初将免疫系统简单地视为强或弱的观点过于简化了。

But over the past couple of decades, research in in exercise immunology, it's shown that the initial view on the immune system as simply strong or weak is really overly simplified.

你的免疫系统并不是一个简单的开关，它更像是一个动态系统。

Your immune system just isn't just a switch that turns on or turns off, it operates more like a dynamic system.

它会不断根据运动的类型、强度、持续时间以及恢复节奏进行调整。

It's constantly adjusting to the type or intensity or duration and recovery rhythm of certain types of exercise.

但我们并没有推翻‘锻炼有益健康’这一长期存在的理论。

But we're not overthrowing the long standing theory that exercising is good for you.

不。

No.

我们没有。

We are not.

当然没有。

Of course not.

我们的观众都取消了健身房会员。

Our audience went, gym membership canceled.

终于，我不用慢跑了。

Finally, I don't have to jog.

每个人都可以吃奶酪汉堡。

Cheeseburgers for everyone.

我们

We

我们仍然可以选择更健康的生活方式，通过锻炼或将锻炼更多地融入日常生活中。

still we still have to or we still can opt for a healthier lifestyle by exercising or include exercise in our daily routine a bit more.

是的。

Yeah.

但我认为这项研究想表达的是，许多研究都注意到，在高强度运动后，会出现某种模式。

But I think what the study is trying to say is that they they did many study have noticed the part pattern that after high intensity exercises

哦，高强度。

Oh, high intensity.

你的一些免疫指标会发生波动。

Some of your immune markers will fluctuate.

但这并不意味着你的免疫细胞正在死亡或分解。

But that doesn't mean that your immune cells are dying or breaking down.

而只是它们从血液中移动到了前线组织，比如你的肺、肠道和皮肤。

But instead, they're just moving out of the bloodstream and into frontline tissues like your lungs, your gut, your skin.

所以你的身体，你的免疫系统并没有崩溃。

So your body is to your immune system is not collapsing.

它只是被重新部署了。

It's just being redeployed.

开窗。

Open window.

是的。

Yes.

这就是开窗期。

That's the open window.

对。

Yes.

这并不是关于……而是关于两件不同的事。

And it's not about well, it's about two different things.

这关乎你训练的强度和训练的量。

It's about how hard you train and how much you train.

所以他们称之为HIIT，对吧？

So they call it HIIT, right?

高强度间歇训练。

High intensity interval training.

当你将这些类型的锻炼控制在推荐范围内时，你的免疫系统就不会失衡。

And when you keep those those types of exercises within the recommended limits, then your immune system doesn't get thrown out of balance.

问题出现在你开始进行突然变长的高强度训练，然后它们突然变得更加频繁时。

The problem starts when you start hard training sessions that suddenly get longer, and then all of a sudden they become more frequent.

比如说，你原本在做HIIT类型的锻炼，比如在跑步机上，你快速奔跑，然后步行三十秒，接着再快速跑一分钟，再步行。

So let's say you were doing HIIT type exercises, and that would be like, for example, on a treadmill, you run really fast and then you walk for thirty seconds, and then you run really fast for a minute and then you walk.

高强度锻炼，短休息。

So hard exercise, short break.

高强度锻炼，短休息。

Hard exercise, short break.

当你开始每天这样做时，你的身体就没有足够的时间像以前那样恢复，根据研究结果，某些免疫细胞的数量和功能可能会下降三到七十二小时，在此期间，你身体对抗感染的防御能力可能会暂时减弱。

When you start doing that, say, every single day, then your body doesn't have a chance to recover like it did before, and in those cases, both from the study results, both the number and the performance of certain immune cells can dip for anywhere from three to seventy two hours, and during that time, then your body's defenses against infection may be temporarily weaker.

但再次强调，问题不在于你进行正常的锻炼，而在于你过度逼迫身体，却没有留出足够的恢复时间。

But again, it's not if you're doing normal types of exercise, it's if you're pushing your body too hard with not enough time to recover.

但说实话，我认为每个人的情况都可能不同。

But to be honest, I think every individual can be different.

所以我的第一个体会是，要意识到这种情况，并在你真的认真对待锻炼时选择合适的时间开始。

So my first takeaway here is to be aware of the situation and to pick the right time to start exercising if you are really serious about it.

而且，一方面，我们确实需要进行高强度训练和剧烈运动。

And also, one, we want to do hard training, hard exercise.

普通锻炼者也可以遵循一些小贴士。

There are also tips that ordinary exercisers can follow.

是的。

Yeah.

例如，对我来说，最重要的启示是，休息有时比你锻炼的强度或水平更重要，尤其是像史蒂夫刚刚提到的高强度间歇训练（HIIT）。

For example, I think here at the big takeaway for me is that your rest sometimes is more important than the level or in the level of intensity of exercises that you are taking, especially when it comes to the HIIT session that Steve just mentioned.

这种训练非常流行。

It's very popular.

很多人认为它对身体更好，也能帮助减重，但你也需要给身体至少一天的时间来恢复和休息。

A lot of people believe is better for your body and it can also help with you losing weight, but you also need to give your body at least one day to recover and rest.

对。

Yep.

这种高强度间歇训练有两个不同的方面。

That HIIT training, it has two different sides.

短期内，它可能会在你的身体中引发轻微的炎症反应，但长期来看，它能改善免疫系统自我调节的能力。

So in the short term, it can spark a little bit of an inflammatory response in your body, but over the long term, it can improve how well your immune system regulates itself.

决定它走向哪一方面的关键在于强度、频率和恢复是否相互协调。

What determines which way it's gonna go is whether the intensity, the the frequency, and the recovery are in sync with each other.

研究表明，在不同研究中发现，规律且结构良好的锻炼可以帮助免疫系统进入一种更平衡或抗炎的状态。

And studies they found across different studies, as a matter of fact, they found that regular well structured exercise can help your immune system settle into kind of a more balanced or anti inflammatory mode.

因此，我们仍然推荐锻炼。

So we still recommend workouts.

百分之百同意。

100000%.

是的。

Yes.

正确地进行锻炼，并确保你的身体有足够的时间恢复。

Do it right and make sure make sure your body has enough time to recover.

我认为我能给出的最好建议，也是我从过去许多试图帮助我调整的教练那里学到的，就是倾听你的身体。

And I think the best advice that I can give and that I'm passing on, by the way, from the numerous trainers who have tried to fix me in the past is listen to your body.

没错，正是如此。

Oh, exactly.

它会告诉你：今天我累了。

And it will tell you, I am tired today.

别逼得太狠。

Don't push it too hard.

你这样做对自己没有任何好处。

You're not doing yourself any favors.

但也不要完全不努力。

But don't don't push it at all.

是的。

Yeah.

还是要稍微努力一点。

Still push it a little bit.

同时，尽量戒烟，保持富含水果和蔬菜的健康饮食，并坚持规律锻炼。

And by the at the same time, try stop smoking, eat a healthy and high in fruits and vegetable diet besides exercise regularly.

你还可以，你知道的，保持健康的体重。

You can also, you know, maintain a wealthy weight.

也许这已经是锻炼的目标了。

Maybe that is already the goal of the exercising.

此外，多睡觉，如果喝酒的话也要适量，这些都是一些有助于保持健康的建议。

And, yes, get more sleep, drink only in moderation if you drink at all, and these are some tips that can keep you healthy.