停摆结束在即，数据图景仍不明朗

欢迎收听嘉信理财市场动态播客，我们通过回顾近期新闻和展望未来，为您做好每个交易日的准备。

Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead.

我是基思·兰斯福德，以下是嘉信理财对11月12日周三市场的早盘展望。

I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Wednesday, November 12.

随着政府停摆可能在本周晚些时候结束，投资者正热切等待数据，为十月份经济图景的空白画布增添色彩。

With the government shutdown likely ending later this week, investors eagerly await data to add some color onto October's blank canvas of an economic picture.

前方有零星报告，但都没有特别能撼动市场的。

There's a smattering of reports ahead, but not any that are especially market moving.

每周MBA抵押贷款指数将在开盘前发布，此前昨日一系列私人报告结果好坏参半。

The weekly MBA mortgage index comes before the open following a mixed set of private reports yesterday.

ADP初步数据显示，在截至10月25日的四周内，私营雇主平均每周裁员11,250人；而十月份NFIB小企业乐观指数显示不确定性呈下降趋势，但经济预期和招聘计划也有所下滑。

ADP's preliminary data showed private employers shedding an average of 11,250 jobs a week during the four weeks ended October 25, And the October NFIB small business optimism showed uncertainty trending lower, but economic expectations and hiring plans also down.

投资者真正渴望看到的是美国政府的九月和十月就业与通胀报告。

What investors really want a crack at are the September and October employment and inflation reports from the US government.

九月份的非农就业数据是在停摆前收集的，一旦劳工统计局恢复运作就可能发布。

September's nonfarm payrolls numbers were collected prior to the shutdown and could be released once the Bureau of Labor Statistics gets the lights back on.

十月数据则是个未知数，因为正常收集期间政府正处于停摆状态。

The October data are an open question because the government was shut during the normal collection time.

无论如何，几乎肯定会有新数据即将出炉，其中就业创造将是核心焦点。

Either way, there almost certainly will be some fresh numbers coming down the pike with job creation front and center.

或许最大的考验将是劳动力市场数据。

Perhaps the biggest test will be the labor market data.

实际情况有多疲软？

How weak is it out there?

嘉信理财金融研究中心衍生品研究与策略总监内森·彼得森表示。

Said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy from the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

如果ADP的数据不仅反映私营部门情况，答案可能是相当疲软——但这些数据很少与官方政府数据相关。

The answer might be quite weak if ADP's numbers translate beyond the private sector, but they seldom correlate with official government data.

在Datum之前，政府需要正式重新开放。

Before Datum, the government needs to formally reopen.

投资者将关注今天预计在众议院进行的相关投票。

Investors will watch a vote on that in the house of representatives expected today.

嘉信理财立法与监管事务董事总经理迈克尔·汤森德指出，众议院议长迈克·约翰逊在政府重启法案中最多只能失去两票共和党支持。

House speaker Mike Johnson can only lose two Republican votes on the bill to reopen the government, noted Michael Townsend, managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs at Schwab.

但预计至少部分温和派民主党人会支持该法案，这可能为约翰逊提供更多回旋余地。

But it is expected that at least some moderate Democrats will support the measure, likely giving Johnson more wiggle room.

汤森德补充说，假设法案通过，特朗普总统可能会在周四签署，政府很可能在本周末前重新开放。

Assuming the measure passes, president Trump would likely sign it Thursday, making it likely the government will open by the end of the week, Townsend added.

债券市场在周二退伍军人节休市后于今日重新开放。

The bond market reopens today after Tuesday's Veterans Day closure.

周一随着风险偏好转变，收益率上升导致国债价格下跌，两者走势相反。

Yields climbed on Monday as risk on appetite turned, pushing down the price of treasuries, which moved the opposite direction of yields.

今日十年期国债拍卖结果公布后，国债市场可能受到密切关注。

Treasuries will likely be watched closely today after results this afternoon from a ten year note auction.

该需求可能帮助判断收益率走向，任何疲软迹象都可能推高收益率。

Demand for that could help determine the direction of yields with any weakness potentially sending them higher.

周一的三年期国债拍卖总体呈现稳健的购买需求。

A three year auction on Monday found generally solid buying interest.

除了今日的国债拍卖，投资者还在等待收盘后思科的财报。

Along with today's auction, investors await Cisco's earnings after the close.

思科业务遍布全球科技领域，涵盖云计算和半导体，其财报结果能较好地反映当前动荡中该行业的状况。

Cisco's presence extends throughout the global tech world, including cloud and semiconductors, meaning its results can be a decent barometer of the sector amid current bumpiness.

上次财报中，思科提到来自网络公司的人工智能基础设施订单表现强劲，这一类别今日将受到密切关注。

Last time out, Cisco cited solid AI infrastructure orders from web companies, a category that will be closely watched today.

而迪士尼和应用材料将于明日发布财报，迪士尼将更新消费者是否继续将额外支出用于电影、流媒体、主题公园和游轮业务。

While Disney and Applied Materials report tomorrow with Disney providing an update on whether consumers continue to spend their extra cash on movies, streaming, theme parks, and cruises.

据CNBC当时报道，应用材料公司是一家半导体设备制造商，其在8月份发布的财报令投资者失望，该公司CEO将原因归咎于宏观经济和政策环境带来的不确定性增加。

Applied Materials is a semiconductor equipment company that disappointed investors when it reported in August as its CEO cited increased uncertainty due to the macroeconomic and policy climate, CNBC reported at the time.

美联储今日仍是焦点，将有四位地区联储主席以及美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒和斯蒂芬·莫兰发表讲话。

The Federal Reserve stays in focus today with remarks from four regional Fed presidents as well as Fed governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Moran.

投资者还将关注周四圣路易斯联储主席阿尔贝托·穆萨勒姆和克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克的演讲，随后周五将有堪萨斯城联储主席杰夫·施密德和达拉斯联储主席洛丽·洛根的讲话。

Investors will also track speeches from Saint Louis Fed president Alberto Moussalem and Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack on Thursday, followed by Kansas City Fed president Jeff Schmid and Dallas Fed president Lori Logan on Friday.

美联储政策制定者似乎对央行12月会议（约一个月后召开）的下一步行动分歧日益加大。

Fed policymakers seem increasingly divided about the central bank's next step in December, a meeting about a month away.

尽管本周早些时候出现了一些鸽派言论，但穆萨勒姆的最新表态带来了寒意——他预计第一季度经济将大幅反弹，并表示进一步降息的空间有限。

Though there was some dovish commentary earlier this week, Musalem's latest comments brought a chill as he expects a substantial economic rebound in the first quarter and said there's limited room for further rate cuts.

截至周二晚些时候，根据CME美联储观察工具显示，下月降息概率为67.4%。

As of late Tuesday, odds of a rate cut next month were 67.4 according to the CME Fed watch tool.

虽然自两周前美联储上次会议以来概率有所波动，但当前仍维持在三分之二左右的水平。

Though odds have vacillated since the last Fed meeting two weeks ago, chances seem to be holding near the two thirds level.

除科技板块因遭遇半导体障碍（周一暴涨后）外，主要股指周二均保持稳定。

Except for the tech sector, which ran into a semiconductor roadblock after storming higher Monday, Major indexes held their own Tuesday.

若不是因为巨额税单待付，标普500指数本可能上涨更多。

If it weren't for tax huge waiting, the S and P 500 index might have risen far more.

11个板块中有9个上涨，领涨的是医疗保健和能源等防御性板块，但金融和材料等周期性板块也有可观涨幅。

Nine of 11 secondtors were higher led by defensives like health care and energy, but also with healthy gains for cyclicals including financials and materials.

虽然单日表现不能形成趋势，但这已是连续第二个交易日看到除常规AI概念股外的板块出现不错表现。

While one day is never a trend, it was the second session in a row to see decent performance beyond the usual AI suspects.

过去一周，能源、医疗保健、材料和通信服务领涨行业榜单，而信息技术板块垫底且是唯一下跌的板块。

Over the last week, energy, health care, materials, and communication services lead the sector scorecard with Infotech dead last and the only one down over that stretch.

这可能预示着行业轮动将持续，投资者正寻求将资金撤出通信服务和科技板块。

This could suggest continued sector rotation as investors look to shift money out of communication services and tech.

这些板块目前仍是年初至今表现最出色的领域，涨幅均超25%，但近期AI估值问题引发关注，导致科技股上周涨势放缓，直到周一才短暂冲高。

Those remain the best year to date performers by far with each up more than 25%, but AI valuations recently came into focus, slowing the tech rally last week before a brief surge on Monday.

标普500成分股中股价高于50日均线的公司比例在周一收盘时攀升至略低于46%，周二尾盘接近50%，较近期低于40%的低点有所回升，但从市场广度来看仍显不足。

The number of S and P 500 companies trading above their fifty day moving average climbed to just under 46% by Monday's close and nearly 50% by late Tuesday, up from recent lows below 40%, but still on the light side from a breadth perspective.

这一指标尤为重要，因为它揭示了市场表面之下的潜在强势。

That indicator is an important callout because it provides some indication of strength below the surface.

回顾周二异动个股，英伟达股价在周一上涨5.8%后下跌近3%，这家市值5万亿美元的公司在其财报发布前一周（即今日起一周后）持续波动。

Checking Tuesday's stocks on the move, shares of Nvidia fell nearly 3% after Monday's 5.8% climb as the $5,000,000,000,000 company continues to see volatility ahead of its earnings report a week from today.

英伟达周二下跌之际，其持股公司CoreWeave在财报发布后股价飙升16%。

Nvidia's losses Tuesday came as shares of CoreWeave, a company Nvidia owns a stake in, drove 16% following earnings.

软银清仓其持有的58.8亿美元英伟达头寸的消息也造成冲击。

News of SoftBank selling its entire $5,880,000,000 position in NVIDIA hurt too.

软银CFO后藤芳光在财报电话会议上表示：'我无法断言当前是否处于AI泡沫中'。

I can't say if we're in an AI bubble or not, SoftBank CFO Yoshimitsu Go to said during an earnings conference call.

他补充道：'软银出售英伟达是为了将资金用于我们的融资需求'。

SoftBank sold NVIDIA so that the capital can be utilized for our financing, he added.

尽管第三季度营收超预期，CoreWave股价仍下跌16%。

CoreWave lost 16% despite reporting better than expected revenue for the third quarter.

这家AI基础设施提供商公布的每股亏损22美分也优于预期。

A provider of AI infrastructure, the company also reported a better than expected loss of 22¢ a share.

问题出在合作伙伴数据中心建设延迟导致的供应链压力，这可能影响第四季度营收。

The culprit was supply chain pressure related to a partner's data center development delay that could take a bite out of fourth quarter revenue.

多家华尔街机构下调了其目标股价。

Several Wall Street firms lowered their target prices.

诺和诺德股价上涨超7%，因投资者对其在与辉瑞竞购肥胖药开发商Metcira的争夺中落败表现出释然。

Novo Nordisk rose more than 7% as investors seemed relieved and lost a bidding war with Pfizer over purchasing obesity drug developer, Metcira.

据路透社报道，辉瑞最终以高达100亿美元的价格收购该公司，结束了这场收购战。

Pfizer ended up buying the company for up to $10,000,000,000, Reuters reported ending the takeover battle.

但辉瑞股价也因此受益飙升4.6%，整个医疗保健板块重现了数月前市场短期轮动至该领域时的买盘兴趣。

But Pfizer's shares also were rewarded jumping 4.6, and the entire health care sector regained some of the buying interest seen a couple months ago when there was a short term rotation toward this part of the market.

与此同时，苹果公司2%的涨幅推动道琼斯工业平均指数上涨逾1%，创下距48000点不远的新纪录高位。

Apple's 2% gains, meanwhile, helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average climb more than 1% to a new record high not far from 48,000.

苹果股价因美印即将达成贸易协定的新闻报道而上涨，鉴于苹果在该地区庞大的制造业务，此举可能对其有利。

Apple got a lift from news reports saying The US and India were close to a trade deal, which might help Apple due to its heavy manufacturing footprint there.

从图表上看，上周的回调使标普500指数自4月以来首次回落至50日移动均线，而周五该支撑位得以守住。

On the charts, last week's pullback brought the S and P 500 index down to its fifty day moving average for the first time since April and support held on Friday.

罗素2000小型股指数在主要股指中表现最弱，但周一成功回升至50日移动均线。

The Russell 2,000 small cap index, which looked weakest among the majors, was able to get back to its fifty day moving average line on Monday.

这两个图表点位可能成为回调时的支撑位，截至周二午盘，标普500指数的50日均线位于6685点。

Those two chart points could represent support on any pullbacks with the fifty day level for the S and P 500 at six thousand six eighty five as of midday Tuesday.

道琼斯工业平均指数周二上涨559.33点（1.18%），收于47927.96点。

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to 559.33 points Tuesday or 1.18 to forty seven thousand nine twenty seven point nine six.

标普500指数上涨14.18点（0.21%）至6846.61点，纳斯达克综合指数下跌58.87点（0.25%）至23468.30点。

The S and P 500 index added 14.18 points or 0.21% to six thousand eight forty six point six one, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 58.87 points or 0.25% to twenty three thousand four sixty eight point three zero.

以上是嘉信理财市场动态播报。

This has been the Schwab Market Update podcast.

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