迪士尼即将登场 紧随思科稳健业绩

欢迎收听嘉信理财市场动态播客，我们将带您回顾近期新闻并展望未来，为每个交易日做好准备。

Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead.

我是基思·兰斯福德，为您带来嘉信理财对11月13日周四市场的早间展望。

I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Thursday, November 13.

消费者信心指数跌至多年低点之际，美国最大消费驱动型企业之一迪士尼即将公布财报，投资者今早将迎来这份季度成绩单。

Consumer sentiment is near its lowest level in years, an auspicious time for one of the largest US consumer driven firms to report earnings, but that's what investors get this morning when Walt Disney dishes out quarterly results.

市场目光仍聚焦华盛顿，众议院周三晚间投票通过政府重启方案，联邦机构或将于本周晚些时候恢复运转。

Eyes also remain on Washington where the house voted late Wednesday on a plan to reopen the government, possibly putting the lights back on later this week.

关键在于何时——以及投资者能否获得政府部门停摆四十多天期间延误的经济数据。

The question is when and whether investors receive the data they missed when offices were shut for more than forty days.

过去几周私营部门就业报告喜忧参半后，就业数据尤为关键。

Jobs data especially is crucial after a mixed tone from several private jobs reports over the last few weeks.

嘉信理财固定收益研究与策略总监库珀·霍华德表示："若停摆今日结束，劳工统计局很可能在本周末或下周初公布延误报告的发布时间表。"

Assuming the shutdown ends today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is likely to release a schedule of when we'll get the reports that we missed either later this week or early next week, said Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

我们预计整体趋势将保持稳定。

We expect much of the same.

劳动力市场正在走软，而通胀率仍高于目标水平。

The labor market is softening, and inflation continues to remain above target.

美联储在下月议息会议前也将密切关注这些数据。

The Federal Reserve will also scrutinize these data as it prepares for next month's meeting.

根据CME美联储观察工具的预测，期货市场预计再次降息的概率约为三分之二。

The futures market prices in about two in three chances of another rate cut according to the CME Fed watch tool.

但交易员可能过于乐观，特别是如果通胀持续居高不下的话。

However, traders could be getting ahead of themselves, especially if inflation stays stubborn.

若美联储开始显现出任何抑制迹象，都可能成为股市上涨的障碍。

Any indication of the Fed holding back if it starts to emerge might form a barrier for the stock market rally.

目前看来，投资者似乎正谨慎试探，在上周华尔街回调后重新入场。

For now, investors seem comfortable dipping their toes back in following last week's Wall Street retreat.

当时科技板块的疲软主要源于市场对AI估值的担忧。

Much of the weakness then came in the tech sector amid concerns about AI valuations.

虽然这些担忧尚未消散，但昨日传来利好消息——超微公司在分析师会议上发布了强劲的财务指引，并对AI需求表达了乐观态度。

Though those aren't going away, soothing news arrived yesterday as advanced microdevices shared strong financial guidance and positive sentiment about AI demand at its analyst meeting.

今天下午将迎来AI领域的又一关键线索，为下周英伟达财报预热。

This afternoon brings another piece of the puzzle for AI ahead of next week's NVIDIA earnings.

半导体设备公司应用材料将在收盘后公布财报，焦点可能集中在其业绩指引上——该公司上次财报中这项指标令投资者失望。

Applied Materials, a semiconductor equipment firm, reports after the close and focus could be on its guidance after that metric disappointed investors last time the company reported.

此前的指引反映了宏观经济问题，但随着中美贸易紧张局势缓和，部分担忧可能已消退。

That guidance reflected macroeconomic issues, but perhaps some concern faded now that trade tensions between The US and China eased.

下周财报季将迎来高潮，沃尔玛、家得宝和塔吉特等大型零售商将陆续公布业绩。

Earnings season picks up next week as major retailers like Walmart, Home Depot, and Target report.

这正值消费者信心指数疲软引发假日消费担忧之际。

This comes amid those weak consumer sentiment numbers raising concerns about holiday spending.

但全美零售联合会上周表示，预计本月零售额将同比增长3.7%至4.2%，首次突破万亿美元大关。

However, the National Retail Federation said last week it expects retail sales this month to grow between 3.74.2% over a year ago, reaching $1,000,000,000,000 for the first time.

该联合会称，消费者虽持谨慎态度，但基本面依然强劲。

Consumers are cautious, the federation said, but fundamentally strong.

下周大型零售商的财报和业绩指引或将印证这一判断，也可能引发新的疑问。

Earnings and guidance from big box stores next week could reinforce that or raise new questions.

在此之前，迪士尼今早在开盘前公布了业绩。

Before that, Disney shares results this morning ahead of the opening bell.

该公司的盈利可以作为消费者健康状况的风向标，反映出人们在邮轮、主题公园、电影和流媒体视频上的消费意愿。

The company's earnings can be a revealing barometer of consumer health, reflecting how much people want to spend on cruises, theme park visits, movies, and streaming video.

上次8月份公布业绩时，尽管主题公园收入有所增长，迪士尼仍未能达到分析师的收入预期。

Last time out in August, Disney fell short of analysts revenue estimates despite growth in theme park revenue.

CNBC当时报道，该季度流媒体视频业务表现稳健，但迪士尼在传统电视捆绑业务上遇到困难。

Streaming video was also solid that quarter, but Disney struggled in the traditional TV bundle, CNBC reported at the time.

一位迪士尼高管当时告诉CNBC，公司客户的表现非常非常好。

The company's customers were doing very, very well, a Disney executive told CNBC then.

投资者可能想知道迪士尼现在是否还持相同看法。

Investors likely want to know if Disney feels the same way now.

市场对迪士尼盈利的普遍预期是每股5美元，收入预计增长不到1%，达到227亿美元。

Consensus for Disney earnings is a dollar 5 per share with revenues seen up less than 1% at $22,700,000,000.

思科昨天晚些时候公布的业绩略高于每股收益和收入的普遍预期。

Cisco reported earnings late yesterday that narrowly edged above consensus views for both earnings per share and revenue.

业绩指引也高于华尔街的预期。

Guidance also came in above what Wall Street had expected.

周三公布业绩前股价上涨3%后，盘后交易初步数据显示股价又攀升了4%。

Shares climbed to 4% in preliminary post market trading after climbing 3% Wednesday heading into its results.

美联储仍是今日关注焦点，圣路易斯联储主席阿尔贝托·穆塞勒姆和克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克将发表讲话。

The Fed remains on today's scorecard with remarks from St.

（注：最后一条人名'Alberto Mousselem'应为'Alberto Musalem'的笔误，'Beth Hammack'是正确姓名）

Louis Fed president Alberto Mousselem and Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack.

投资者还将关注明日堪萨斯城联储主席杰夫·施密德和达拉斯联储主席洛丽·洛根的讲话。

Investors will also track speeches tomorrow from Kansas City Fed president Jeff Schmid and Dallas Fed president Lori Logan.

考虑到施密德在上月底美联储决定降息25个基点时持反对意见，他的言论可能会很有趣。

The remarks from Schmid could be interesting considering he dissented on the Fed's decision late last month to cut rates by 25 basis points.

尽管周三十年期国债拍卖需求疲软，但由于市场担心政府停摆可能拖累美国第四季度经济增长，国债收益率在退伍军人节休市后普遍下跌。

Though a ten year treasury note auction saw lackluster demand Wednesday, treasury yields mostly fell after the market closure for Veterans Day, hurt by ideas that fourth quarter US growth might be slowed by the government shutdown.

基准十年期收益率下跌4个基点至4.07%，创10月29日以来最低收盘水平。

The benchmark ten year yield dipped four basis points to 4.07%, the lowest close since October 29.

不过，过去两个月收益率一直在非常狭窄的区间内波动，十年期收益率大致在44.15%左右。

That said, yields have traded in a very narrow range over the last two months between roughly 44.15% for the ten year.

嘉信理财的霍华德表示，尽管劳动力需求下降和裁员增加，通胀依然顽固，投资者应保持信用质量并坚持基准久期。

With inflation stubborn despite a backdrop of diminishing labor demand and climbing layoffs, Schwab's Howard says investors should stay up in credit quality and stick to a benchmark duration.

主要股指周三原地踏步，科技股早盘涨势迅速消退。

Major indexes treaded water Wednesday as an early rally in tech quickly faded.

纳斯达克综合指数连续第二天下跌，但标普500指数勉强实现四连涨。

The Nasdaq Composite fell for the second straight day, but the S and P five hundred index just managed a fourth consecutive higher close.

道琼斯工业平均指数保持涨势，首次突破48000点。

The Dow Jones Industrial Average kept its momentum and topped 48,000 for the first time.

从板块来看，信息技术板块小幅收高，但周三的行情可能更令那些寻找远离巨型股板块上涨空间的投资者欣喜。

Looking at sectors, Infotech managed a slightly higher finish, but Wednesday was another session that likely pleased investors looking for room to rally in sectors less exposed to the mega caps.

医疗保健、材料和金融板块本周持续走强，周三均上涨超过1%。

Health care, materials, and financials have all been on a roll this week, each climb more than 1% Wednesday.

银行业似乎因CNBC报道而获得提振，报道称美国几家最大银行的领导人将于周三晚间与特朗普总统共进晚餐。

Banks appeared to get a boost from CNBC reporting that leaders of some of the biggest US banks would dine with president Trump Wednesday night.

与此同时，医疗保健板块似乎近期受益于资金向防御性板块的轮动，而包括钢铁和矿业公司在内的材料类股则因政府重启后基础设施支出增加的预期获得支撑。

Health care, meanwhile, seems to be the beneficiary of some rotation into more defensive sectors lately, while material stocks, including steel and mining firms, got support from hopes for more infrastructure spending as the government reopens.

近期资金流向医疗和必需消费品板块可能不仅是防御性选择，也可能反映出投资者在寻找估值较低的标的。

The move into health and staples recently might not simply be a defensive one, but could also reflect investors looking for lower valuations.

截至周三晚，标普500指数成分股中交易价格高于50日移动平均线的公司比例继续缓慢攀升至52%。

The number of S and P 500 companies trading above their fifty day moving average continued to creep higher to 52% by late Wednesday.

这较近期低于40%的低点有所回升，但从市场广度来看仍显不足。

That's up from recent lows below 40%, but still on the light side from a breadth perspective.

该指标很重要，因为它能反映市场内部的实际强度。

That indicator is important because it provides some indication of strength below the surface.

周三多数超大市值股票下跌的情况下，看到市场广度提升是积极信号。

With mega cap stocks mostly lower Wednesday, it's positive to see breadth moving up.

周三异动个股方面，超微半导体在分析师会议上公布长期财务模型后股价攀升逾8.5%。

Checking stocks that moved Wednesday, shares of advanced microdevices climbed more than eight and a half percent after outlining its long term financial model at a meeting it held for financial analysts.

该公司预计未来三到五年营收复合年增长率将超过35%，并称同期AI数据中心业务收入年增速将超80%。

The company expects to drive a better than 35% revenue compound annual growth rate the next three to five years and also said AI data center revenue should grow by more than 80% per year over that same time period.

英伟达在周二下跌2%后，周三仅微幅上涨。

NVIDIA barely inched upward Wednesday after Tuesday's two percent drop.

该股早盘因代工厂富士康财报上涨，后者生产云网络产品及AI服务器。

Shares rose earlier in the day on earnings from Foxconn, which builds cloud and networking products along with AI servers.

据《巴伦周刊》报道，富士康利润超预期，公司表示AI软件需求强劲。

Profit topped expectations, and the company cited solid demand for AI software, Barron's reported.

加密货币相关公司Circle Internet Group在公布稳健财报但预测支出增加后，股价暴跌10%。

Circle Internet Group shares cratered 10% after the crypto related company reported solid earnings but also forecast higher expenses.

从图表上看，标普500指数的任何下跌都可能测试6694点附近的50日均线支撑位。

On the charts, any dip in the S and P 500 index could test support near the fifty day moving average of six thousand six ninety four.

在过去一个月里，50日均线已经经受住了多次考验。

The fifty day line has held on several tests over the last month.

道琼斯工业平均指数周三上涨326.86点，涨幅0.68%，报48254.82点。

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to 326.86 points Wednesday or 0.68% to 48,254.82.

标普500指数上涨4.31点，涨幅0.06%，报6850.92点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌61.84点，跌幅0.26%，报23406.46点。

The S and P 500 index added 4.31 points or 0.06% to 6,850.92 and the NASDAQ Composite slipped 61.84 points or 0.26% to 23,406.46.

这里是嘉信理财市场动态播客。

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