政府停摆焦点：薪资发放延迟

欢迎收听嘉信理财市场动态播客，我们为您回顾近期新闻并展望未来，助您为每个交易日做好准备。我是科莱特·奥克莱尔，以下是嘉信对10月3日周五市场的早间展望。通常，投资者今早会热切期待9月非农就业报告。但随着政府停摆进入第三天，美国劳工统计局（BLS）已推迟发布该数据。投资者——更重要的是美联储——将不得不等待政府就业数据，并暂时依赖私人调查来评估劳动力市场健康状况。

Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead. I'm Colette O'Clare, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Friday, October 3. Ordinarily, investors would be eagerly awaiting the September nonfarm payrolls report this morning. But with the government shutdown stretching into its third day, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, has postponed its release. Investors, and more importantly, the Federal Reserve, will have to wait for government jobs data and rely on private surveys to gauge the health of the labor market in the meantime.

尽管关键经济数据延迟发布且数十万政府工作人员被迫休假，市场基本未受政府停摆影响。三大主要股指周四均收涨。然而停摆持续时间越长，对市场和经济造成的风险可能越严重。嘉信交易与衍生品策略主管乔·马佐拉表示，周四SIBO波动率指数（VIX）上涨2.33%，反映出未来市场波动性可能加剧。75万被迫休假或无薪工作的员工可能面临短期家庭财务紧缩，这将减少第四季度可支配支出和零售额。

Despite the delay of key economic data and the furlough of hundreds of thousands of government workers, markets have largely brushed off the government shutdown. All three major market indices ended Thursday in the green. However, the longer the shutdown lasts, the more risks to markets and the economy could intensify. The potential for increased market volatility ahead was reflected in the 2.33% rise in the SIBO Volatility Index, or VIX, on Thursday. The likely impact to the 750,000 workers furloughed or unpaid could mean short term household finances will be squeezed, reducing discretionary spending and retail sales in the fourth quarter, said Joe Mazzola, head trading and derivatives strategist at Schwab.

若停摆持续，工资损失、项目延误和消费者需求疲软的累积效应可能体现在GDP数据中。周二民主党与共和党高层未能就短期延长政府拨款达成协议，民主党要求以延长医疗保健税收抵免作为支持条件。为施压议员周四通过拨款协议，特朗普总统宣布将与管理和预算办公室主任拉斯·沃格特会面，讨论可能实施的永久性开支削减及联邦雇员裁员。此前政府周三决定削减纽约基础设施项目180亿美元联邦资金，并削减多州气候相关项目80亿美元资金。除开支削减外，政府停摆可能持续影响美联储依赖的经济数据流。

If the shutdown persists, the cumulative effect of lost wages, delayed projects, and weakened consumer demand could show up in the GDP data. Top Democrats and Republicans failed to reach a short term deal to extend government funding on Tuesday, with Democrats pushing for an extension of health care tax credits in exchange for their support. In a bid to pressure lawmakers into funding a deal on Thursday, President Trump announced that he would meet with the office of management and budget director Russ Vogt to discuss potentially permanent spending cuts and federal worker layoffs. This followed the administration's Wednesday decision to slash $18,000,000,000 in federal funding for infrastructure projects in New York and $8,000,000,000 in federal funding for climate related projects across multiple states. Beyond the spending cuts, the government shutdown could continue to impact the flow of economic data the Fed depends on.

美国劳工部已推迟周四发布的初请失业金数据。如今9月非农就业报告延迟可能使美联储在10月会议前陷入困境。嘉信金融研究中心固定收益策略总监库珀·霍华德表示，今年美联储官员在权衡劳动力市场疲软与持续通胀时，一直依赖就业报告做利率决策，政府停摆加大了美联储的工作难度。美联储可能需从ADP报告等私人调查获取信息——周三ADP报告已显示劳动力市场疲软迹象。

The US Department of Labor already postponed the release of initial jobless claims data Thursday. Now the delay of the September non farm payrolls report could leave the Fed in a tough spot ahead of its October meeting. Fed officials have leaned on jobs reports when making interest rate decisions this year as they weigh weakening labor market conditions against persistent inflation. The government shutdown makes the Fed's job harder, said Cooper Howard, director of fixed income strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. The Fed will likely have to gather information from private surveys, like Wednesday's ADP report, which showed some softness in the labor market.

低招聘、低解雇环境仍在延续。

With private labor market reports now in focus, investors have received a mixed bag of data this week. On Wednesday, ADP's jobs report revealed the private sector shed 32,000 jobs in September. But Thursday's Challenger Job Cuts report showed just 54,064 job cuts last month, down from 85,979 in August and 72,821 in September 2024. The figure was also well below the consensus expectation for 150,000 cuts. However, year to date hiring plans through September in Challenger's report were the weakest they've been since 02/2009, providing evidence that the low hire, low fire environment that has persisted through much of the year remains in vogue.

鉴于劳动力数据依然疲软，根据CME FedWatch工具，截至周四下午期货市场定价显示，美联储10月下旬会议降息25个基点的概率接近100%。12月再次降息概率也升至89.4%，远高于上周的70%。短期国债收益率周四多数微升（1个月和3个月国库券收益率分别小幅涨至4.113.95%），长期收益率则微降（10年期国债收益率跌至4.1%，30年期降至4.7%），这可能是近期收益率曲线陡化趋势的短暂缓解。我们预计曲线将因短期利率走低而趋陡。

With labor market data still soft, futures markets priced in nearly 100% odds of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's late October meeting as of Thursday afternoon, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The odds of an additional rate cut in December also rose to 89.4%, well above the 70% level seen late last week. In what could be a brief reprieve from the recent trend of yield curve steepening, short term Treasury yields mostly inched up on Thursday, while long term yields fell slightly. One month and three month Treasury bill yields rose modestly to 4.113.95%, respectively, while the ten year bond yield dipped to 4.1% and the thirty year bond yield dropped to 4.7%. We expect the curve to steepen, led by lower short term rates.

霍华德表示长期利率可能维持区间波动。8月工厂订单数据成为周四政府停摆的又一牺牲品，人口普查局推迟了发布。市场预期8月工厂订单环比增长1.4%（7月为下降1.3%）。虽然投资者今日无法获取就业数据，但他们将在上午10点关注ISM服务业采购经理人指数。

Longer term rates are likely to remain range bound, said Howard. August factory orders were another casualty of the government shutdown on Thursday, with the Census Bureau delaying the data release. Consensus had expected a 1.4% month over month jump in August factory orders compared to the 1.3% drop seen in July. While investors won't get jobs data today, they will be monitoring the ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index at ten a. M.

东部时间。服务业在截至八月的三个月里连续增长，尽管劳动力市场疲软且面临通胀压力，消费者支出依然持续。市场普遍预期九月份ISM服务业指数将与上月持平，保持在52%的扩张区间。比特币周四延续涨势，上涨1.84%，至东部时间下午4点突破12万美元关口。在政府停摆阴影下，投资者可能正将比特币这类基本无关联性的另类资产视为避风港。

Eastern Time. The services sector grew for three consecutive months through August, with consumers continuing to spend despite a soft labor market and pressure from inflation. Consensus expects ISM services in September to be in line with the prior month, remaining in expansion territory at 52%. Bitcoin continued its climb on Thursday, rising 1.84% to top $120,000 by 4PM eastern time. Investors could be looking to alternative, largely uncorrelated assets like Bitcoin as a safe haven amid the government shutdown.

另一方面，黄金周四暂停涨势，收盘下跌0.4%至3,855.37美元。今年以来这个避险资产已飙升逾45%，随着利率持续下降预期推升价格屡创新高。但达拉斯联储主席洛根周四的讲话给贵金属市场泼了冷水。她敦促对进一步降息保持谨慎，认为若金融条件放松过度可能导致通胀复燃，迫使美联储进行痛苦的政策逆转。投资者将关注洛根今日下午的另一次演讲，以及稍后美联储副主席杰斐逊的讲话，以获取更多政策线索。

On the other hand, gold paused its rally Thursday, falling 0.4% to $3,855.37 as of market close. The Safe Haven asset has surged more than 45% year to date, reaching record highs with the prospect of an ongoing drop in interest rates boosting prices. But comments from Dallas Fed President Lori Logan on Thursday threw some cold water on the precious metal. Logan urged caution on further interest rate cuts, arguing that the Fed can't ease financial conditions too significantly without risking a resurgence of inflation that would force a painful course reversal. Investors will be watching another speech from Logan this afternoon and comments from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson shortly after for more insights into the Fed's thinking.

周四企业动态方面，特斯拉公布强劲的车辆交付数据。第三季度总交付量同比增长7%至497,099辆，远超华尔街447,600辆的预期。周二刚刚生效的联邦电动车税收抵免政策即将到期，推动了该季度销售，扭转了第二季度交付量同比下滑14%的颓势。尽管交付数据亮眼，特斯拉股价周四仍下跌5.1%，不过年内累计涨幅仍达15%左右。

In corporate news Thursday, Tesla reported strong vehicle delivery figures. Total deliveries rose seven percent from a year ago to 497,099 in the third quarter, well above Wall Street's consensus estimate for 447,600. The pending expiration of key federal EV tax credit for buyers, which finally went into effect Tuesday, helped drive sales at the company during the period, marking a turnaround after a 14% year over year drop in deliveries in the second quarter. Despite the strong delivery figures, Tesla stock fell 5.1% on Thursday. Shares are still up roughly 15% year to date.

沃伦·巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦周四宣布，已同意以97亿美元现金收购西方石油公司化工子公司OxyChem。截至六月，伯克希尔已是这家油气巨头最大股东之一，持股达28.2%。这是伯克希尔自2022年以116亿美元收购保险公司Alleghany以来最大规模的交易。消息公布后，伯克希尔股价周四下跌0.45%，西方石油股价暴跌7.31%。与此同时，费埃哲公司周三晚间宣布推出FICO抵押贷款直接授权计划后，股价飙升17.94%。

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway announced Thursday that it has agreed to buy Occidental Petroleum's petrochemical unit OxyChem in a $9,700,000,000 cash deal. Berkshire is already one of Occidental Petroleum's largest shareholders, holding a 28.2% stake in the oil and gas giant as of the June. The deal is Berkshire's largest since its $11,600,000,000 takeover of the insurance company Allegheny in 2022. Berkshire shares fell 0.45% on Thursday after the deal's announcement, while Occidental stock plummeted 7.31. Meanwhile, Fair Isaac Corporation stock surged 17.94% after announcing the launch of its FICO Mortgage Direct License Program late Wednesday.

该计划将允许抵押贷款机构直接向借款人计算和分发FICO信用评分，摆脱对征信机构的依赖。消息公布后，包括艾克飞、益博睿和环联在内的主要征信机构股价周四均大幅下挫。标普500指数11个板块中有7个收跌，能源和可选消费板块领跌，而材料、信息技术和工业板块支撑了大盘指数。道琼斯工业平均指数周四上涨78.62点或0.17%，报46,519.72点。

The program will allow mortgage lenders to calculate and distribute FICO credit scores directly to borrowers, eliminating the reliance on credit bureaus. Shares of major credit reporting agencies, including Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion, all plunged on Thursday in the wake of the announcement. Seven out of 11 S and P 500 secondtors fell on Thursday. Energy and consumer discretionary were the biggest losers, while materials, information technology, and industrials helped bolster broader market indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 78.62 points Thursday or 0.17% to 46,519.72.

标普500指数上涨4.15点或0.06%，收于6,715.35点；纳斯达克综合指数跃升88.89点或0.39%，报22,844.05点。以上就是本期嘉信理财市场动态播报。欲获取最新资讯，请访问schwab.com/marketupdate或在您喜爱的播客平台免费订阅。若喜欢我们的节目，请考虑给予评分或评论，这将帮助更多听众发现我们。

The S and P 500 Index advanced 4.15 points or 0.06% to 6,715.35, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 88.89 points or 0.39% to 22,844.05. This has been the Schwab Market Update podcast. To stay informed, visit schwab.com/marketupdate or follow for free in your favorite podcasting app. And if you like what you've heard, please consider leaving us a rating or review. It really helps new listeners find the show.

周一请继续收听我们的市场动态。重要声明详见节目备注及schwab.com/marketupdatepodcast。

Join us for another update Monday. For important disclosures, see the show notes and schwab.com/marketupdatepodcast.