仅剩一天：地缘政治背景下就业数据即将公布

欢迎收听嘉信市场更新播客，我们将为您回顾近期新闻，并展望每个交易日的市场动态。

Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead.

我是基思·兰斯福德，以下是嘉信对1月8日周四市场的早期市场展望。

I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Thursday, January 8.

今天关注的焦点集中在周五即将公布的12月非农就业报告，该报告可能对美联储政策产生影响。

Focus today turns squarely ahead to Friday's December non farm payrolls report, which could have Federal Reserve policy implications.

主要指数昨日下跌，这是本周首次回落，收盘前出现温和抛售。

Major indexes finished down yesterday for the first time this week, running into moderate selling late in the session.

地缘政治持续受到关注，原因是上周末委内瑞拉事件的后续影响。

Geopolitics continued to be on participants' plates amid fallout from Venezuela events last weekend.

非农就业数据的预期显示，新增就业岗位约为5.5万个，失业率稳定在4.6%，周薪上涨0.3%。

Estimates for non farm payrolls put jobs growth near 55,000, with unemployment steady at 4.6% and weekly wages up 0.3%.

华尔街的‘私下预期’数字则较为低迷，仅为4.5万个。

The so called whisper number on Wall Street is a lackluster 45,000.

过去几个月的就业报告均未达预期，前三个月平均仅新增2.2万个岗位，这些数据可能有助于判断美联储何时以及是否会再次降息。

The last several jobs reports disappointed in averaging just 22,000 over the prior three months and data could help determine if and when the Fed cuts rates again.

下周的通胀数据也很关键。

Next week's inflation data is also key.

尽管政府停摆已于近两个月前结束，但明天的数据仍可能存在一些问题，可能导致未来进行下调修订。

Even though the government shutdown ended nearly two months ago, there still could be some hitches in tomorrow's data possibly resulting in revisions down the road.

投资者还应关注12月之前三个月收集的数据是否有任何修订，因为美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔几周前警告称，劳动力数据可能被扭曲，政策制定者可能会以略带怀疑的眼光看待这些数据。

Investors should also check for any revisions to data collected in the three months before December as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned a few weeks ago that labor data may have been distorted and policymakers might look at it with a somewhat skeptical eye.

昨天，就业数据开始陆续公布，12月的ADP私营部门就业报告揭示了新增41,000个就业岗位。

Jobs data began coming out of the woodwork yesterday with December's ADP private employment report revealing 41,000 jobs created.

这一数字低于45,000的市场共识，所有增长均来自服务业。

That was below the 45,000 consensus, and all the gains came from services.

商品生产领域的就业增长下降，这对制造业来说不是一个好迹象。

Goods producing job creation fell, not a good sign for the manufacturing sector.

这与近期政府就业报告一致，报告显示医疗保健和社会服务等行业的就业增长更多，尽管11月建筑业就业也大幅上升，可能反映了与人工智能热潮相关的数据中心建设。

It also squares with recent government jobs reports showing more employment growth in sectors like health care and social services, though construction jobs also surged in November possibly reflecting the build out of data centers related to the AI boom.

矿业可能是明天值得关注的行业，以观察金属市场近期上涨是否带来更强的需求迹象。

Mining could be a sector to watch tomorrow for any signs of stronger demand related to recent rallies in the metals markets.

然而，由于上个月原油价格仅略高于生产商的盈亏平衡点，石油行业的就业岗位可能会减少。

However, jobs in the oil patch could decline as crude oil remained just above breakeven levels for producers last month.

作为另一份可能的就业数据预览，昨日发布的职位空缺与劳动力流动调查（JOLTS）报告显示，11月职位空缺降至14个月低点的714.6万个，远低于Briefing.com共识预期的760万个。

In another possible payrolls preview, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey or JOLTS report released yesterday showed openings slipped in November to a 14 low of 7,146,000 well below the briefing.com consensus of 7,600,000.

政府还下调了10月的职位空缺数据。

The government also downwardly revised October's openings.

周三发布的其他数据显示，12月ISM服务业PMI升至54.4%，高于52.2的市场共识预期。

In other data Wednesday, ISM Services PMI for December climbed to 54.4% compared with consensus for 52.2.

任何高于50%的数值均表示扩张。

Anything above 50% indicates expansion.

支付价格略有下降，但仍处于历史高位，而就业指标自5月以来首次升至扩张区间。

Prices paid fell slightly but remained historically high, and employment rose into expansion mode for the first time since May.

在今日开盘前，投资者还将很快收到12月钱德勒裁员报告，更多就业数据即将公布。

More jobs data is due soon before today's open when investors receive the December Challenger layoffs report.

11月的报告曾显示裁员人数为7.1万人。

The November report showed 71,000 job cuts.

明天就业报告发布后，市场焦点可能转向华盛顿，因为最高法院宣布将于上午十点开始发布意见。

Market focus after the jobs report tomorrow could turn to Washington as the Supreme Court announced it will release opinions starting at ten a.

美。

M.

东部时间星期五。

Eastern Time Friday.

投资者期待的一项裁决涉及特朗普总统的关税，该案已于去年底在最高法院审理。

One of the ones investors are waiting for is on President Trump's tariffs, a case argued before the court late last year.

目前尚不清楚这一裁决是否会于周五公布，但若法院裁定反对政府，这可能成为股市的潜在催化剂。

It's unclear if that ruling will be announced Friday, but it's a potential catalyst for stocks, especially if the court goes against the administration.

然而，即使作出不利裁决，也不会立即改变现状。

However, even a negative ruling wouldn't immediately change things.

如果法院裁定取消关税，可能会引发复杂的退款程序，但政府仍可利用其他紧急授权实施关税，施瓦布公司立法与监管事务主管迈克尔·汤森表示。

If the court were to rule against the tariffs, it could trigger a complicated refund process, but the administration could use other emergency authorizations to impose tariffs, said Michael Townsend, managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs at Schwab.

他所指的是，若法院裁定部分关税违宪，政府可能需要向众多企业退还税款。

He was referring to refunds that the administration might owe many companies if the court rules some of the tariffs were unconstitutional.

提醒一下，法院并非对特朗普实施的所有关税作出裁决，而是针对来自约100个国家的进口商品，以及对墨西哥、加拿大和中国征收的部分关税。

As a reminder, the court isn't ruling on all the tariffs Trump imposed, but on imports from about 100 countries as well as some of the tariffs imposed on Mexico, Canada, and China.

汽车、钢铁和半导体关税不受此案影响。

Auto, steel, and semiconductor tariffs aren't affected by the case.

由于疲软的ADP和职位空缺报告，以及地缘政治问题引发的避险买盘，周三美国国债收益率最初下跌，跌至近期区间中部，10年期国债收益率位于44.2%附近。

Treasury yields initially fell Wednesday on the soft ADP and job openings reports and possible safe haven buying amid geopolitical issues sinking to the middle of their near term range between 44.2% for the ten year note.

Schwab金融研究中心固定收益研究与策略主管库珀·霍华德表示，历史上，当地缘政治紧张局势升级时，国债通常会因避险需求而上涨；但在缺乏地缘政治因素的情况下，短期内收益率可能仍维持区间震荡。

Historically, Treasuries have rallied on a safe haven bid when geopolitical tensions rise, said Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, absent geopolitical issues, yields are likely to remain range bound in the near term.

低于预期的ADP数据推动了国债的上涨，但我们提醒不要将ADP数据直接外推至周五的非农报告。

The weaker than expected ADP figure contributed to a rally in Treasuries, but we would caution from extrapolating ADP to Friday's labor report.

历史上，ADP与非农就业数据的关联性并不高，因此ADP疲软绝不意味着非农数据也会疲软。

Historically, the ADP and non farm payrolls haven't often correlated, so a weak ADP in no way signals a weak payrolls reading.

尽管周三经济数据疲软，但根据CME联邦观察工具截至周三晚些时候的数据，期货市场仅预期1月降息的概率为12%。

Despite Wednesday's weak economic readings, the futures market priced in just 12% odds of a January rate cut as of late Wednesday according to the CME Fed watch tool.

这一概率较本周早些时候有所下降，但投资者可能在周五就业数据公布后重新关注这一预期。

That's down from earlier this week, but investors might consider monitoring this again after Friday's jobs data.

期货交易直到美联储四月会议才计入50%的降息概率。

Futures trading doesn't bake in 50% odds of a rate cut until the Fed's April meeting.

如果周五的就业报告出现疲软迹象，降息概率可能上升，但根据美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在12月新闻发布会上表现出的谨慎态度，一月降息仍显勉强。

Any sign of softness in Friday's jobs report could send odds higher, though January still seems like a stretch based on the reticence Fed chairman Jerome Powell indicated at his December press conference.

美联储已连续三次会议降息，12月会议纪要显示，一些政策制定者对12月的降息持观望态度，可能希望暂停以观察数据。

The Fed has cut rates three straight meetings, and minutes from the December meeting indicated some policymakers were on the fence about December's cut and might want to pause to watch data.

本周，随着特朗普政府宣布委内瑞拉将向美国供应石油，石油市场出现疲软迹象。

Softness turned up in the oil market this week after the Trump administration announced that Venezuela will give supplies to The US.

该计划是出售这些石油，将所得资金存入美国银行，最终再返还给委内瑞拉。

The plan is to sell the oil, put the proceeds in US banks and then distribute back to Venezuela eventually.

这给本已因供应过剩而接近一年低点的油价带来了压力。

This put pressure on oil prices which already traded near one year lows amid a heavy supply overhang.

周三，原油价格跌至三周低点，略高于每桶56美元。

Crude dipped to three week lows just above $56 per barrel Wednesday.

本周早些时候，能源类股票走势分化，部分股票最初因预期获得更多供应而上涨，随后又出现回撤。

Energy related stocks traded both directions earlier this week, some initially charging ahead on hopes for more access to supplies before some pullback.

专家表示，委内瑞拉出口大幅恢复可能需要数年时间。

It could take years for significant amounts of Venezuelan exports to resume, experts say.

但与此同时，如果委内瑞拉被迫赔偿本世纪早些时候没收的资产，几家大型石油公司可能会从中受益。

But in the meantime, several major oil firms could potentially benefit if Venezuela is forced to pay them back for assets it seized earlier this century.

此外，像贝克休斯这样的石油服务公司，作为石油行业的‘镐与铲’环节，或许能在修复委内瑞拉落后的石油基础设施方面找到市场机会。

Additionally, oil services firms like Baker Hughes, which represent the picks and shovels contingent of the oil sector, might find a market for their services in repairing Venezuela's deficient oil infrastructure.

周三，主要指数一度努力反弹，但直到收盘前阶段未能守住涨幅，几乎全面收跌。

Wednesday featured major indexes fighting for another rally until late in the session when they lost the battle and settled lower almost across the board.

唯一例外的是科技股占比较高的纳斯达克指数，该指数小幅收涨。

The exception was the tech heavy Nasdaq, which closed with light gains.

华尔街可能受到本周就业数据的压力，但早些时候推动股市上涨的领域——包括能源、内存芯片制造商和国防企业——失去动能，也可能造成了拖累。

Some pressure on Wall Street might have come from the days week jobs data, though loss of momentum in some areas that boosted stocks earlier in the week, including energy, memory chipmakers, and defense firms probably hurt as well.

昨日半导体板块下跌1%，受威腾电子、美满科技和德州仪器等公司大幅下跌的拖累。

Semiconductors dropped 1% as a sector yesterday, hurt by sharp declines in companies like Western Digital, Marvell Technology, and Texas Instruments.

从板块来看，周三标普11个板块中仅有三个上涨，与周二的九个板块上涨形成鲜明对比。

On the sector front, only three of 11 S and P sectors rose Wednesday, a sharp change from nine on Tuesday.

医疗保健领涨，其次是通信和信息技术。

Healthcare led followed by communications and infotech.

过去一个月表现强劲的板块，包括材料和金融，收盘时排名靠后，而能源板块因特朗普总统表示美国将获得委内瑞拉石油而下跌。

Some of the sectors that rallied over the last month, including materials and financials, finished low on the list, and energy slumped as oil fell on President Trump's statement that The US will be getting Venezuelan oil.

然而，这只是一天的表现，现在断言上个季度推动这些板块的轮动趋势已经改变还为时过早。

It's just one day, however, and too soon to say there's a change in the rotation trade that's lifted some of these areas last quarter.

标普500指数中约60%的公司股价仍高于其50日移动平均线。

About 60% of S and P 500 companies still trade above their fifty day moving averages.

这一比例较昨日盘中峰值68%有所下降，但仍表明市场整体上涨趋势仍在推动大多数股票上行。

That's down from the intraday peak of 68% yesterday but still tells the tale of a market where a rising tide is lifting most boats.

从个股表现来看，英特尔周三上涨6%，创下自2024年4月以来的最佳水平。

Looking at individual performance Wednesday, Intel powered to 6% gains posting its best level since April 2024.

这一涨势源于英特尔本周早些时候在CES 2026大会上推出的新产品。

The rally came after Intel introduced new products earlier this week at the CES twenty twenty six conference.

《华尔街日报》报道称，礼来公司正就以超过10亿美元收购临床阶段生物制药公司Ventix Biosciences进行深入谈判，消息公布后，礼来股价周三上涨4%。Ventix公司专注于自身免疫、炎症和神经退行性疾病。

Eli Lilly surged 4% Wednesday after The Wall Street Journal reported Lilly is in advanced talks to acquire clinical stage biopharma company Ventix Biosciences for more than $1,000,000,000 Ventix focuses on autoimmune, inflammatory, and neurodegenerative diseases.

礼来公司后来证实了该报道，称已达成一项最终协议收购该公司。

Lilly confirmed the report later, saying it had entered into a definitive agreement to buy the company.

由于金融公司MSCI决定将策略公司及其他加密公司保留在其主要股票指数中，策略股上涨了近3%。

Strategy rose nearly 3% on news that finance firm MSCI decided to keep strategy and other crypto firms in its major equity indexes.

据《巴伦周刊》报道，华纳兄弟探索公司在拒绝派拉蒙天空之舞的敌意收购后股价小幅上涨。

Warner Brothers Discovery inched up after the company rejected Paramount Skydance's hostile bid, Barron's reported.

华纳兄弟探索公司已与奈飞达成合并协议。

Warner Brothers Discovery is in a merger agreement with Netflix.

再生元制药公司在被美国银行从“表现不佳”上调至“买入”后，周三股价上涨了近5%。

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals rose nearly 5% Wednesday after getting upgraded to buy from underperform by Bank of America.

由于总统特朗普表示将不允许国防公司发放股息或进行股票回购，洛克希德·马丁和诺斯罗普·格鲁曼昨日股价大幅下跌。

And Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman both fell sharply yesterday after president Trump said he will not permit defense companies to issue dividends or stock buybacks.

这可能有助于解释工业板块的疲软。

This likely helped explain weakness in the industrial sector.

由于金属价格周三下滑，材料类股票下跌。

Material stocks fell as metal prices slipped Wednesday.

道琼斯工业平均指数周三下跌466点，跌幅0.94%，收于48,996.08点；标普500指数下跌23.89点，跌幅0.34%，收于6,920.93点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨37.1点，涨幅0.16%，收于23,584.27点。

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost four sixty six points Wednesday or 0.94% to 48,996.08, the S and P 500 index fell 23.89 points or 0.34% to 6,920.93, and the NASDAQ Composite added 37.1 points or 0.16% to 23,584.27.

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