期权到期日，日本央行利率决议即将揭晓

欢迎收听嘉信理财市场动态播客，我们为您回顾近期新闻并展望未来，助您为每个交易日做好准备。我是科莱特·奥克莱尔，以下是嘉信对9月19日周五市场的早间展望。今天是华尔街的三巫聚首日，股指期货、股指期权和股票期权合约同时到期。在美联储自去年12月以来首次降息推动股市昨日创下历史新高后，这可能导致交易活动增加和市场波动加剧。三巫聚首在周中期权推出前曾是更大事件，因此今日未必会出现更剧烈的波动。

Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead. I'm Colette O'Clare, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Friday, September 19. It's triple witching day on Wall Street as contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, and stock options all expire. This could lead to greater trading activity and increased volatility after stocks posted new record highs yesterday following the Federal Reserve's first rate cut since December. Triple witching was a bigger deal before midweek, and weekly options were introduced, so there's no guarantee of heavier action today.

尽管如此，交易者仍需格外警惕突发波动。市场也临近季度结束前11天传统的粉饰橱窗季开端，这意味着基金经理可能在发布季度报告前买入赢家股、抛售输家股。这将成为未来一两周可能引发额外交易活动的另一因素。今日财报与数据日程相对清淡，焦点集中在联邦快递昨日盘后公布的财报，以及日本央行今晨利率会议的结论。尽管分析师调查不排除年底前再次加息，但预计日本央行将维持利率不变。

Still, anyone trading should be extra watchful for sudden moves. The market is also nearing the traditional start of window dressing season ahead of the quarter's end in eleven days, meaning fund managers might be stepping in to buy winners and sell losers before sending out quarterly reports. That's another element that could cause some extra activity over the next week or two. Today's earnings and data calendars are relatively light, putting focus on earnings from FedEx late yesterday and the conclusion of the Bank of Japan's rate meeting this morning. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates steady, though analyst surveys don't rule out another rate hike before the end of the year.

若外国央行维持利率不变或加息，而美联储下调美国利率，可能打击美元。美元指数已徘徊在近年低点附近，略高于97关口（该指数追踪美元兑其他主要货币汇率）。美元走弱可能利好科技等海外业务比重大的企业，这或是科技板块在美联储降息后周四上涨的原因之一。科技股反弹的另一动因是英伟达向英特尔股票投资50亿美元。两家公司还宣布将合作开发多代定制数据中心和PC产品。

If foreign central banks keep rates unchanged or raise them while the Fed moves US rates lower, it could hurt the dollar. The greenback already trades near its recent multiyear lows, just above 97 for the dollar index that tracks it against other major currencies. A weaker dollar could help tech and other firms with large overseas presence, and that might be one reason the tech sector rallied Thursday after the Fed's rate move. Another reason for tech's rally was NVIDIA's investment of $5,000,000,000 in Intel stock. The two companies also announced a collaboration to jointly develop multiple generations of custom data center and PC products.

《巴伦周刊》报道，合作重点在于连接英伟达与英特尔架构，但协议暂未包含英伟达使用英特尔晶圆代工业务生产芯片的计划。英伟达将继续依赖台积电代工。英特尔股价昨日暴涨22%，英伟达上涨逾3%。其他大型科技股跟涨，包括Palantir、Applovin、博通和迈威尔科技。

The focus will be on connecting NVIDIA and Intel architectures, but the deal doesn't include plans for NVIDIA to use Intel's foundry business to make chips, at least for now, Barron's reported. Instead, NVIDIA will continue to rely on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing for that. Intel soared more than 22% yesterday, and NVIDIA climbed more than 3%. Other big tech stocks followed suit. Advancing names included Palantir, Applovin, Broadcom, and Marvell.

但英伟达竞争对手超微半导体股价下跌近1%，市场担忧英伟达与英特尔合作可能构成竞争威胁。虽然科技巨头占据新闻头条，但小盘股投资者因美联储降息25个基点而欢呼，推动罗素2000指数周四上涨超2%至2467点历史新高。这终于突破了去年11月创下的盘中历史高点，收盘价也超越了2021年11月的前历史收盘纪录。低利率通常有利于更依赖借贷的小型企业。尽管小盘股反弹显示涨势向巨型股之外扩散，但本轮行情仍由最大型股票主导。

But shares of NVIDIA competitor advanced micro devices fell almost 1%, hurt by worries the NVIDIA Intel collaboration might pose a competitive threat. Big tech dominated news, but small cap investors cheered the Fed's quarter point rate cut by sending the Russell two thousand index up more than 2% to a new all time high Thursday of 2,467. This finally took out the old all time intraday high set last November, and the index closed above its old all time high close set in November 2021. Lower rates often help small firms that tend to rely more on borrowing. Though the small cap rally suggests better breadth beyond mega caps, the rally continues to be dominated by the largest stocks.

截至周四前的一个月内，

Over the last month, going into Thursday, the magnificent seven collectively were up 10.5%. The S and P 500 index was up 3.7%, and the equal weighted S and P 500 index that weighs all 500 members equally rather than by market capitalization was up 0.7%. With the Fed super focused on unemployment, this week's initial jobless claims of 231,000 on Thursday provided some relief, though one week isn't a trend. Claims fell from 264,000 a week earlier, but that may have been affected by Texas extending the deadline for claims after deadly flooding earlier this year. The new weekly claims figure is in line with short term averages, and continuing jobless claims of 1,920,000 were also down but still near recent four year highs.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三暗示，联储更倾向于其双重使命中的充分就业目标。美联储将利率下调25个基点至44.25%的目标区间。若再加息两次，年底将降至3.5-3.75%，但部分政策制定者不预期会有两次降息，甚至有人认为不会再有降息。不过目前美联储似乎对在通胀率约3%（远高于2%目标）时降息感到安心。嘉信理财首席固定收益策略师凯西·琼斯表示：

Fed chairman Jerome Powell indicated Wednesday that the Fed leans more toward the full employment aspect of its dual mandate. The Fed cut rates a quarter point to a target range of between 44.25%. That would fall to 3.5 to 3.75% by year end if two more cuts occur, but some policymakers don't expect two cuts, and some don't expect another at all. Still, for now, the Fed seems comfortable cutting rates with inflation at roughly 3%, well above its 2% goal. This is one of the most interesting Fed meetings I've seen lately, said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab.

你可以看到预测值的广泛分散以及鲍威尔在解释利率路径时的挣扎。如果不是有一位政策制定者在点阵图预测中填写的利率远低于其他人，明年年底目标利率的平均预测值可能仍会维持原状，而非从3.6%降至3.4%。国债市场预计到2026年利率将跌破3%，这将在投资者与美联储政策制定者之间形成分歧，可能需要一段时间才能见分晓。周四降息后，国债收益率曲线继续趋陡，这表明美联储进一步降息的预测可能使短期收益率承压，尽管财政担忧和相对强劲的经济增长支撑着长期收益率。十年期收益率周四上涨3个基点至4.1%，而两年期收益率上涨2个基点。

You can see the wide dispersion of projections and Powell's struggle to explain the rate path. If it weren't for one policymaker penciling in far lower rates in their dot plot projections than anyone else, it's possible that average projections for the target rate at the end of next year would have stayed where they were instead of falling to 3.4% from 3.6%. The treasury market expects rates to drop below 3% by the 2026, setting up a conflict between investors and Fed policymakers that could take some time to play out. The treasury yield curve continued to steepen Thursday after the rate cut, a sign that the Fed's projections for more cuts could keep shorter term yields under pressure, even as fiscal worries and relatively strong economic growth prop longer term yields. The ten year yield rose three basis points to 4.1% Thursday, while the two year yield rose two basis points.

三十年期收益率上涨5个基点至4.72%，对于那些希望美联储倾向降息能提振房市的人来说未必是好消息。包装递送公司联邦快递周四收盘后公布的盈利超预期，推动其股价在盘后交易中开盘即上涨6%。Briefing.com称，其2026财年营收指引似乎轻松超越市场普遍预期。联邦快递通常被视为商业和消费者需求的可靠晴雨表。昨日其他数据显示，费城联储制造业指数报23.2，远高于Briefing.com预测的0.0及上月的-0.3，任何高于零的数值都表明行业扩张。

The thirty year yield rose five basis points to 4.72%, not necessarily good news for those hoping the Fed's tilt toward lower rates would help the housing market. Packaged delivery firm FedEx earnings surpassed estimates after the close Thursday, sending shares 6% higher out of the gate in post market trading. Revenue guidance for fiscal twenty twenty six appeared to easily top consensus expectations, briefing.com said. FedEx is often seen as a solid barometer of business and consumer demand. In other data yesterday, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at 23.2, well above the briefing.com forecast of zero point zero and last month's minus 0.3, with anything above zero indicating expansion.

这是自一月份以来的最高值，也是费城地区制造业状况的积极信号，尽管全美制造业今年大部分时间都处境艰难。费城报告显示新订单、出货量和支付价格等子项指标普遍健康。但世界大型企业联合会的领先经济指数8月份下降0.5%至98.4，此前7月份曾微增0.1%。这是自四月份以来最大月度跌幅，预示着更多逆风。该联合会在新闻稿中表示，疲软的制造业新订单和消费者预期指标拖累了数据。

It was the highest figure since January and a positive sign for manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia region, though manufacturing across the country has struggled most of the year. The Philadelphia reports a healthy breadth among subcomponents like new orders, shipments, and prices paid. But the conference board's leading economic index dropped by 0.5% in August to 98.4 after a small 0.1% increase in July. It was the largest monthly decline since April and signals more headwinds. The conference board said in a press release, soft manufacturing new orders and consumer expectation indicators weighed.

周四主要指数全线上涨，标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数创收盘新高，罗素2000指数也录得历史最高收盘点位。尽管标普500成分股中交易价格位于50日均线上方的比例仍维持在55%左右（远低于夏季近80%的高点），这些新高依然出现，这再次表明领涨个股减少而多数股票停滞不前。按板块划分，科技板块从前一天的垫底位置跃居首位，周期性工业板块也上涨超1%。但标普11个板块中仍有4个收跌，必需消费品和可选消费品板块表现最差。Cracker Barrel和Darden Restaurants令人失望的业绩似乎拖累了可选消费类股。

Thursday saw major indexes climb across the spectrum with new closing highs for the S and P five hundred index and the Nasdaq Composite, along with the Russell two thousand's record high close. The new highs came even as the percentage of S and P 500 stocks trading at or above their fifty day moving average remained at around 55%, well below summer highs near 80% and another sign that fewer names are rallying while many tread water. On a sector basis, tech motored its way to first from last the day before, while the cyclical industrial sector also climbed more than 1%. Still, four of 11 s and p sectors ended lower, with staples and discretionary last on the list. Disappointing results from Cracker Barrel and Darden Restaurants appeared to hurt consumer discretionary stocks.

诺和诺德因其每日一次减肥药的后期试验结果显示显著减重效果和良好耐受性，推动医疗保健板块走强。道琼斯工业平均指数周四上涨124.1点或0.27%，报46,142.42点；标普500指数上涨31.61点或0.48%，报6,631.96点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨209.4点或0.94%，报22,470.72点。这里是嘉信理财市场更新播客。欲持续获取资讯，请访问schwab.com/marketupdate或在您喜爱的播客应用中免费订阅。

Health care got a boost from Novo Nordisk after late stage trial results for its once daily obesity pill showed significant weight reduction and tolerability. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 124.1 points Thursday or 0.27% to 46,142.42. The S and P 500 index added 31.61 points or 0.48% to 6,631.96, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 209.4 points or 0.94% to 22,470.72. This has been the Schwab Market Update podcast. To stay informed, visit schwab.com/marketupdate or follow for free in your favorite podcasting app.

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