Salesforce、梅西百货、加密货币与ADP招聘动态

欢迎收听嘉信理财市场动态播客，我们将带您回顾近期新闻并展望未来，为每个交易日做好准备。

Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead.

我是基思·兰斯福德，以下是嘉信理财对12月3日周三市场的早间展望。

I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Wednesday, December 3.

投资者以等待就业和服务业数据开启新的一天，同时密切关注最新科技公司财报。

Investors start the day waiting jobs and services sector data while perusing the latest tech earnings.

周二市场整体小幅上涨，科技和加密货币板块领涨，风险情绪有所改善。

Tuesday featured light gains for the broader market led by strength in tech and crypto as risk sentiment improved.

尽管如此，华尔街的上涨幅度相对有限，标普500指数仍低于上周收盘点位，这让人质疑在如此接近历史高点的情况下，市场反弹的确定性有多大。

Still, Wall Street's advance was relatively narrow, and the S and P 500 index remained below last week's close, raising questions about how much conviction rallies may have so close to all time highs.

Marvell Technology和CrowdStrike在昨日收盘后公布了财报，为AI和网络安全领域提供了最新动态。

Marvell Technology and CrowdStrike reported after the close yesterday providing the latest look at AI and cybersecurity trends.

Marvell的业绩数据基本符合市场预期。

Marvell's numbers roughly matched consensus.

业绩指引与预期大致相符，而数据中心收入38%的增长超出了公司自身的预测。

The guidance came in about as expected, while data center revenue growth of 38 beat the company's own forecast.

此外，Marvell宣布收购is is a edge（预计将增强边缘计算能力），尽管营收同比增长22%，但盘后交易中股价波动剧烈。

Also, Marvell announced the acquisition of is is a edge, which edge, The which expected, and shares were choppy in post market trading despite a 22% year over year revenue rise.

Salesforce将在今日收盘后公布财报，受软件行业面临AI竞争担忧影响，该公司股价今年表现不佳。

Salesforce reports after today's closing bell, it's been a tough year for the company's shares weighed down by concerns that software faces AI competition.

然而三个月前公布的季度财报显示营收增长10%，当时Salesforce在提高盈利预期的同时维持了全年营收展望。

However, revenue climbed 10% in the quarter it reported three months ago, and Salesforce maintained its full year revenue outlook then while raising earnings guidance.

这次投资者可能会重点关注其AgentForce AI软件的表现，以观察Salesforce的AI产品是否获得市场认可。

This time, investors will likely watch performance of the company's AgentForce AI software for signs of Salesforce getting traction from its AI offerings.

其他值得关注的财报包括开盘前的零售商Dollar Tree和梅西百货，以及收盘后的企业软件公司Snowflake。

Other earnings to watch include retailers Dollar Tree and Macy's before the open, along with enterprise software firm Snowflake after the close.

今日还有大量数据公布，包括东部时间08:15的ADP就业报告。

There's also a fair share of data today, including ADP employment to do at 08:15AM eastern time.

预计将显示11月就业增长仅为1万人，较10月的4.2万人大幅下降。

It's expected to show November jobs growth of just 10,000 down from 42,000 in October.

虽然市场已基本消化疲软预期，但任何意外强劲迹象都可能引发对美联储下周决策的更多讨论。

While weakness is pretty much dialed in, any sign of significant unexpected strength could set off more discussion about the Federal Reserve decision next week.

根据CME Fed观察工具的数据，截至周二晚间，降息概率为89%。目前来看，如果美联储不按市场预期行动反而会令人意外。

Chances of a rate cut were 89% as of late Tuesday according to the CME Fed watch tool, and at this point, it would be surprising if the Fed didn't deliver what the market expects.

但请记住，ADP报告与12月16日发布的官方政府就业数据未必相关，因为它仅追踪私营部门就业情况。

Keep in mind, however, the ADP report isn't necessarily correlated with official government jobs data due December 16 as it only tracks private sector employment.

更多就业数据将于明早发布，包括11月挑战者裁员报告，此前10月份裁员人数曾大幅上升。

More jobs data is due tomorrow morning with the November challenger job cuts report after a sharp rise in October layoffs.

市场普遍预期将略低于10万，较10月份的15.3万有所下降。

Consensus is for just under 100,000 down from 153,000 in October.

周四还将公布每周初请失业金人数，Briefing.com的共识预期为22万，接近近期区间的低端。

Thursday features weekly jobless claims too with briefing.com consensus at 220,000 near the low end of the recent range.

尽管就业市场看似低迷，但假日购物者似乎仍保持韧性。

Despite what appears to be a lackluster jobs climate, holiday shoppers seem resilient.

根据Adobe Analytics的数据，网络星期一销售额从午夜至东部时间周一晚6:30同比增长了4.5%。

Cyber Monday sales grew four and a half percent versus last year from midnight to 06:30PM eastern time Monday according to Adobe Analytics.

美国零售联合会表示，黑色星期五的销售数据同样表现稳健。

Black Friday sales also looked solid, the National Retail Federation said.

11月零售销售数据将于12月17日公布，但投资者可能要等到明年年初各大零售商发布第四季度财报电话会议时才能直接获取相关信息。

November retail sales are due December 17, but investors won't likely hear directly from most major retailers until early year on their fourth quarter earnings calls.

梅西百货今天将举行财报电话会议，好市多下周发布财报，这是今年最后两次了解零售商视角下购物趋势的机会。

Macy's earnings call today and Costco's earnings next week are two of the last opportunities this year to get the retailer's eye view on shopping trends.

在审视今年假日购物季时，部分由股市上涨和加密货币驱动的所谓财富效应正受到质疑。

The so called wealth effect, driven partly by rising stock prices and by cryptocurrency, comes into question when scrutinizing holiday shopping this year.

比特币周二大幅反弹上涨6%，而前一天刚下跌了5%。

Bitcoin made a sharp turnaround on Tuesday to climb 6% after falling 5% the day before.

尽管如此，比特币仍较10月峰值下跌近30%，这可能会让部分消费者在购物时犹豫是否要大额消费。

Still, it's down almost 30% from its October peak, and there's a chance that could make some consumers hesitant to spend big on shopping trips.

与此同时，十年期国债收益率数周来一直维持在4%至4.15%的区间内。

The ten year treasury note yield, meanwhile, has been stuck in a range for weeks between 4% to 4.15%.

周二该收益率跌破4.1%，但真正的考验可能出现在今天上午。

It slipped below 4.1% Tuesday, though the real test might come this morning.

今天上午10点将发布11月ISM服务业报告，此前10月数据显示价格支付成分指数跃升至70%。

Today's 10AM November ISM services report follows October data that showed a jump in the prices paid component to 70%.

这是自2022年10月以来首次读数超过70%，引发了通胀担忧。

That was the first reading above 70% since October 2022 and raised inflation concerns.

如此高的读数加上周一ISM制造业报告中价格上涨，可能会在美联储下周会议前加剧通胀担忧。

Another reading that high combined with Monday's rising prices in the ISM manufacturing report might reinforce inflation fears as the Fed prepares to meet next week.

周一国债收益率上升的一个原因是对日本央行本月可能加息的担忧。

One reason treasury yields advanced Monday was concern about a possible Bank of Japan rate hike later this month.

这也推动日元兑美元走强，并成为本周初加密货币的主要压力因素之一。

This also drove the yen higher versus the dollar and appeared to be among the main pressure points on cryptocurrencies early this week.

尽管比特币周二大幅逆转，但这并不意味着问题已经消失。

Though Bitcoin reversed sharply on Tuesday, that doesn't mean the issue has disappeared.

嘉信理财固定收益研究与策略主管科林·马丁指出，随着日本收益率上升，如果能在其他地方获得有吸引力的收益率，外国投资者可能会从国债中分散投资，并提到日本收益率已达到2008年以来最高水平。

As Japanese yields rise, foreign investors may diversify out of treasuries if they can get attractive yields elsewhere, said Colin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, noting that Japanese yields are the highest since 2008.

CBO波动率指数VIX昨日回落至17以下，但市场仍处于期货溢价状态。

The CBO volatility index or VIX flagged to below 17 yesterday, but the market remains in contango.

本月及以后的VIX合约升至20以上（历史平均水平），或许暗示着地缘政治和利率担忧将持续至2026年。

VIX contracts for later this month and beyond rise above 20, the historic average, perhaps hinting at geopolitical and rate worries into 2026.

从技术面来看，标普500指数的重要图表点位仍维持在6770点，而阻力位可能位于历史高点6920点附近。

Technically, an important chart point remains six thousand seven seventy, while resistance likely rests near the all time high of six thousand nine twenty for the S and P 500 index.

该指数自9月中旬以来一直在6005.50至6900点区间内波动，近期重新站上了120日移动均线。

The index has traded in a range between roughly $6,005.50 and 6,900 since mid September and recently clawed back above its 100 twenty day moving averages.

尽管周二华尔街取得温和涨幅，但行业板块表现并不亮眼。

Despite Wall Street's moderate gains Tuesday, the sector landscape didn't impress.

标普11个板块中仅有3个上涨，能源、公用事业和材料等近期领涨板块今日大幅收跌。

Just three of 11 S and P sectors rose with recent leaders like energy, utilities, and materials finishing deep in the red.

尽管波音带动工业板块领涨，但信息技术和通信服务板块分列当日涨幅榜第二、三位。

While industrials led on strength from Boeing, Infotech and Communication Services were in the mix placing second and third in the daily scorecard.

这并未延续看涨投资者乐见的市场广度扩大趋势，不过这只是单日表现。

This doesn't advance the broadening breadth scenario many bullish investors like to see, but it was just one day.

虽然标普500指数较11月20日的近期低点已上涨近5%，但仅有52%的成分股站在50日均线上方。

Only 52% of S and P 500 stocks trade above their fifty day moving averages, though the S and P 500 is up nearly 5% from the recent November 20 low.

这表明市场广度仍相对狭窄。

This suggests breadth remains relatively narrow.

尽管如此，标普500指数的相对强弱指数(RSI)在此期间从31攀升至57，从接近超卖状态恢复到11月初股市下跌前的水平。

That said, the relative strength index or RSI has climbed from 31 to 57 for the S and P 500 index over that time frame, going from near oversold conditions to back where it was in early November before stocks stumbled that month.

周二个股方面，波音公司股价飙升10%，因该公司预计2026年将实现正自由现金流，且7月交付量将增加。

Checking individual stocks Tuesday, Boeing soared 10% after the company said it expects positive free cash flow in 2026 and higher July and July deliveries.

GE Vernova和卡特彼勒同样表现优异，助力工业板块领跑行业，但这两家公司均未传出重大消息。

GE Vernova and Caterpillar also performed well to help industrials lead the sector race, but neither had any big news associated with them.

这种强势可能反映了市场对经济的乐观情绪，或许与降息预期以及积极的季节性因素有关。

Strength may reflect enthusiasm over the economy, possibly related to ideas of lower rates as well as positive seasonal factors.

芯片和AI相关股票表现分化，博通和超微半导体回调，而阿斯麦、AppLoven、美满电子和台积电则录得上涨。

Stocks related to chips and AI were mixed with Broadcom and advanced microdevices pulling back, while ASML, AppLoven, Marvell, and Taiwan Semiconductor had positive sessions.

英伟达近一个月来首次实现连续两日上涨，但仍远低于10月创下的历史高点。

NVIDIA put together its first back to back gains in almost a month but remains well below October's all time highs.

苹果和沃尔玛周二双双创下历史新高，可能得益于今年假日季迄今强劲的购物趋势。

Apple and Walmart both set new all time highs Tuesday, possibly helped by strong shopping trends so far this holiday season.

包括联合航空和达美航空在内的航空公司上涨2%至3%，此前美国政府表示刚过去的周日是感恩节后旅客通过机场安检最繁忙的一天。

Airlines, including United Airlines and Delta Airlines climbed two to 3% after what the US government said was the busiest Sunday after Thanksgiving ever in terms of travelers passing through airport checkpoints.

华纳兄弟探索公司股价上涨2.7%，此前《华尔街日报》报道称Netflix已提高对其收购报价，而Barron表示派拉蒙天空之舞和康卡斯特已提交第二轮竞标。

Warner Brothers Discovery rose 2.7 after The Wall Street Journal reported that Netflix has sweetened its offer for the company, while Paramount Skydance and Comcast have submitted second bids, Barron said.

机器人仓库自动化公司Symbotic股价下跌21%，此前高盛将其评级从中性下调至卖出。

And shares of Symbotic, a robotics warehouse automation company, fell 21% after getting downgraded by Goldman Sachs to sell from neutral.

道琼斯工业平均指数周二上涨185.13点，涨幅0.39%，收于47,474.46点。

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 185.13 points Tuesday or 0.39% to 47,474.46.

标普500指数上涨16.74点，涨幅0.25%，收于6,829.37点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨137.75点，涨幅0.59%，收于23,413.67点。

The S and P 500 index climbed 16.74 points or 0.25% to six thousand eight twenty nine point three seven, and the Nasdaq Composite tacked on 137.75 points or 0.59% to 23,413.67.

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