股市面临短暂交易日，标普500指数本月几无涨跌

欢迎收听嘉信理财市场动态播客，我们将带您回顾近期新闻并展望未来走势，为每个交易日做好准备。

Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead.

我是基思·兰斯福德，以下是嘉信理财对11月28日周五市场的早盘展望。

I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Friday, November 28.

首先，重要提示。

First, an important note.

由于东部时间下午1点提前休市，今日的嘉信理财市场动态为精简版。

Due to the 1PM eastern time market close, today's Schwab market update is an abbreviated version.

如需获取最新市场资讯，请锁定嘉信理财网络频道，今日播出时间为东部时间上午8点至下午1点。

For late breaking market news, please tune in to the Schwab Network, which will be broadcasting today from 8AM until 1PM eastern time.

十一月最后一个交易日伴随着清淡的财经日历和提前休市到来——继昨日假期休市后，今日市场将于东部时间下午1点关闭。

The last day of November trading dawns with a barren calendar and an early close as markets shut at 1PM eastern time after yesterday's holiday closure.

预计成交量将维持低位，这可能放大市场波动，且今日财经日历上没有重要财报或数据发布。

Volume is likely to be thin, potentially exacerbating moves, and no major earnings or data are on the calendar.

在交投清淡的情况下，主要指数的任何大幅下挫或飙升可能都无法反映投资者普遍的看空或看多倾向。

With volume light, any major slides or rallies in major indexes might not reflect widespread investor conviction one way or the other.

下周交易量可能上升，这将更清晰地反映投资者的倾向。

Volume next week could rise giving a better sense of investors' leanings.

主要指数周三连续第四个交易日上涨，而基准十年期国债收益率维持在1个月低点4%不变。

Major indexes rallied a fourth straight session Wednesday while the benchmark ten year treasury yield was unchanged at one month lows of 4%.

标普500指数周三收于6008.12美元，距离抹平本月跌幅仅一步之遥。

The S and P 500 index finished Wednesday at $6,008.12 striking distance from erasing its monthly losses.

该指数今日需收于6008.40美元上方，才能实现11月收涨——而就在11月20日，其较10月31日还下跌近5%。

It would need to close above $6,008.40 today to finish November higher after being down nearly 5% from October 31 as recently as November 20.

展望这动荡一年的最后一个月，板块走势可能仍将波动，因为在11月份资金已从部分科技股轮动至医疗保健和必需消费品等传统防御性领域。

Looking ahead to the final month of a turbulent year, sector action could remain volatile after November saw a rotation out of some tech names and into classic defensive areas like health care and staples.

嘉信理财金融研究中心衍生品研究与策略总监内森·彼得森表示，从历史来看，表现不佳的板块往往会在年底因税务亏损抛售而继续落后，而表现优异的板块则部分由于所谓的'橱窗装饰效应'在年底受到追捧。

Historically, the underperforming sectors tend to lag as we move to year end due to tax loss selling, and the outperforming sectors tend to be bought into year end in part due to some window said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

因此，我们是否会继续看到资金从科技板块流出尚不明确。

So it's unclear whether we continue to see rotation away from tech or not.

“粉饰橱窗”是指基金经理在季度末买入表现优异股票的行为，以便这些股票能出现在发送给客户的季度报告中。

Window dressing is a term referring to fund managers buying shares of high performing stocks late in a quarter so they show up in the quarterly reports sent to clients.

下一项关键通胀数据将于一周后的今天公布，届时将发布延迟的9月个人消费支出（PCE）数据。

The next key inflation reading comes a week from today when the delayed September personal consumption expenditures or PCE data are due.

这是美联储最为密切关注的通胀数据。

This is the inflation data most closely watched by the Federal Reserve.

尽管美国市场昨日休市且今日交易时间缩短，但世界其他地区并未停摆。

Though US markets were shut yesterday and trading is shortened today, the rest of the world didn't take the day off.

日本昨日公布的一系列数据可能有助于确定该国利率走向。

A host of data from Japan came out yesterday that could help determine the path of interest rates there.

本周末，中国将发布11月官方制造业与非制造业PMI数据。

And over the weekend, China releases its official NBS manufacturing and nonmanufacturing PMI numbers for November.

前值分别为49.0和50.1，恰好位于区分扩张与收缩的50荣枯线附近。

The previous readings were forty nine point zero and fifty point one respectively right near the 50 line that denotes expansion.

分析师预计这个关键经济体的周末数据不会出现大幅波动。

Analysts don't expect huge changes from those in the weekend numbers from this key economy.

不过，任何细微波动都可能对耐克、特斯拉等在中国拥有主要市场的美国企业产生重要影响。

Still, any hiccup could be meaningful for US firms with major markets in China like Nike and Tesla.

周三数据显示，每周初请失业金人数总计21.6万，处于近期区间低端，低于预期的22.5万。

In data on Wednesday, initial weekly jobless claims totaled 216,000 at the low end of the near term range and below expectations of 225,000.

虽然这仅是单周数据，但并非会引发经济衰退担忧的数字，不过持续申领人数仍接近四年高位。

While it's a single week, it's not the kind of number that would raise recession concerns, though continuing claims remain near four year highs.

每周抵押贷款申请几乎持平，而9月耐用品订单增长0.5%，超出0.3%的预期共识，非国防资本品（不含飞机）订单则强劲增长0.9%。

Weekly mortgage applications barely budged while September durable goods orders rose 0.5% outpacing consensus of 0.3%, and orders for non defense capital goods excluding aircraft rose a solid 0.9%.

该类别通常被视为企业需求的代表指标。

That category is often seen as a proxy for business demand.

然而，亚特兰大联储的GDPNow指标目前将美国第三季度国内生产总值增长率下调至3.9%，低于此前预期的4%。

However, the Atlanta Fed's GDP now indicator now pegs third quarter US gross domestic product growth at 3.9% under the previous four percent.

而芝加哥PMI（该地区制造业指数）表现相当疲软，仅为36.3，远低于Briefing.com预期的44.5。

And the Chicago PMI, a manufacturing index for that region, looked quite soft at 36.3, well under the briefing.com consensus of 44.5.

根据CME FedWatch工具，在本周多数疲软数据公布后，周三晚些时候12月降息概率已升至85%。

Chances of a rate cut in December climbed to 85% by late Wednesday following mostly soft data earlier this week according to the CME FedWatch tool.

期货交易已反映出1月暂停加息的高概率。

Futures trading bake in high odds of a rate pause in January.

周三的七年期国债拍卖未能激起太大兴趣，此前一天五年期国债拍卖表现平平，表明在当前收益率水平下并未积压大量需求。

A seven year treasury auction Wednesday didn't generate much interest following a lackluster five year auction the prior day, suggesting there's not a huge amount of pent up demand at current yields.

回顾周三的板块表现，11个板块中有8个上涨。

Checking Wednesday's sector action, eight of 11 rows.

周二领涨的通信服务板块掉头下跌至末尾，而周二表现落后的信息技术板块则领涨。

Tuesday's leader, communication services, flipped places to finish last while Infotech, a Tuesday laggard, led the way.

医疗保健板块仍以本月剩余一个交易日的优势领跑各板块。

Health care still leads sectors this month with one day left to trade.

嘉信理财金融研究中心首席投资策略师Liz Ann Saunders表示，医疗保健板块因未来盈利前景改善而受到关注，并补充说投资者轮动也助推了该板块。

Healthcare has garnered some attention because of an improving earnings profile looking ahead, said Liz Ann Saunders, chief investment strategist for the Schwab Center for Financial Research, adding that investor rotation has also helped the sector.

周三零售股延续强势表现，得益于本周多份亮眼财报，而半导体板块反弹2.75%——尽管行业龙头英伟达在科技股风险偏好回归行情中落后于多数同行。

Wednesday featured strength again in retail stocks after several solid earnings reports this week, while semiconductors charged back 2.75% despite market leader NVIDIA trailing many peers amid a return to risk on action in tech.

据美联社报道，航空股同样表现强劲，因美国联邦航空管理局预计将迎来十五年来最繁忙的感恩节航班安排。

Airlines also did well as the Federal Aviation Administration anticipated the busiest Thanksgiving flight schedule in fifteen years, the Associated Press reported.

个股方面，甲骨文虽受AI巨额支出担忧拖累，但在德意志银行发布看涨报告称近期回调提供了有吸引力的入场点后，股价回升4%。

Checking individual stocks Wednesday, Oracle, hurt by worries about heavy AI spending, climbed to 4% after a positive note from Deutsche Bank suggesting the recent pullback provides an attractive entry point.

周三，表现低迷的英伟达股价上涨1.5%，可能反映了Wedbush看涨的观点，该机构认为尽管Alphabet和博通势头强劲，但当前AI市场的核心始终是英伟达，这一局面未来几年都不会改变。

Slumping NVIDIA rose one and a half percent Wednesday, possibly reflecting a bullish note from Wedbush, which argued that despite momentum from Alphabet and Broadcom, the AI market starts and ends with NVIDIA today, and that's not changing for a few years.

Urban Outfitters公布财报后股价飙升13.5%，其盈利和营收表现令投资者印象深刻。

Urban Outfitters popped 13 and a half percent after earnings and revenue impressed investors.

戴尔公司盈利超预期后股价上涨近6%，尽管营收略低于预期。

Dell gained nearly 6% after earnings beat expectations, though revenue came up just short.

对第四季度营收将远高于市场共识的乐观预期似乎提振了股价。

Guidance for solid fourth quarter revenue well above consensus appeared to give shares a lift.

迪尔公司股价下跌近6%，因投资者对这家农业设备企业令人失望的业绩展望作出反应。

And Deere fell nearly 6% as investors reacted to a disappointing outlook from the agricultural equipment firm.

下周关键财报包括迈威尔科技、CrowdStrike、赛富时和克罗格。

Key earnings next week include Marvell Technology, CrowdStrike, Salesforce, and Kroger.

道琼斯工业平均指数周三上涨314.67点，涨幅0.67%，报47,427.12点。

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 314.67 points Wednesday or 0.67% to forty seven thousand four twenty seven point one two.

标普500指数上涨46.73点，涨幅0.69%，报6,812.61点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨189.1点，涨幅0.82%，报23,214.69点。

The S and P 500 index rose 46.73 points or 0.69% to six thousand eight twelve point six one, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 189.1 points or 0.82% to twenty three thousand two fourteen point six nine.

这里是嘉信理财市场动态播客。

This has been the Schwab Market Update podcast.

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To stay informed, visit www.schwab.com/marketupdate or follow us for free in your favorite podcasting app.

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And if you like what you've heard, please consider leaving us a rating or a review.

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It really helps new listeners find the show.

我将在周一带来下一次更新。

I'll be back with another update Monday.

重要披露信息请参见节目备注和schwab.com/marketupdatepodcast。

For important disclosures, see the show notes and schwab.com/marketupdatepodcast.