股市停滞不前，AI企业整合加剧

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Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead. I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at

9月25日周四市场的早盘前瞻。周三美国股市早盘涨幅回落，人工智能板块走低。纳斯达克100指数下跌0.31%，两日累计跌幅达1.14%。英伟达下跌0.82%，甲骨文重挫1.71%。但阿里巴巴宣布将追加原定500亿美元的AI投资计划，推动其股价当日大涨超8%。

the markets for Thursday, September 25. US stocks eroded their early gains on Wednesday as AI stocks pulled back. The Nasdaq one hundred retreated 0.31%, stretching its two day pullback to negative 1.14%. Nvidia dropped 0.82%, while Oracle tumbled 1.71%. However, Alibaba announced plans to increase its AI spending beyond its original target of $50,000,000,000, which caused the stock to rally more than 8% on the day.

8月新屋销售环比激增20.5%，创2022年1月以来最强单月表现。这波增长出现在9月抵押贷款利率下降之前。80万美元以上住宅涨幅最大，推高了整体销售均价。莱纳建筑和普尔特集团等住宅建筑商分别上涨1.98%和0.65%。建筑商板块上涨带动消费周期性板块当日走高，但能源板块因原油期货上涨2.26%而继续下挫。

New home sales surged 20.5% month over month in August, which was the strongest month since January 2022. The surge occurred ahead of the September drop in mortgage rates. Homes over $800,000 saw the largest uptick, which took the average price of homes sold higher. Homebuilders, including Lennar and Pulte Group, rallied 1.980.65%, respectively. A homebuilder rally helped to lift the consumer cyclical sector higher for the day, but the energy sector slid further ahead as crude oil futures rallied 2.26%.

油价上涨突破50日均线，但其200日均线位于略低于67美元处，可能成为下一阻力位。公用事业和必需消费品板块当日亦收涨。但科技和通信行业巨头拖累主要指数。标普全球PMI报告显示，美国9月制造业和服务业投入价格仍保持粘性高位。

The rally pushed oil prices above its fifty day moving average. However, the oil's two hundred day moving average trades just shy of $67, which could be the next level of resistance. Utilities and consumer staples were also positive on the day. However, tech and communications mega cap companies weighed down the major indexes. Manufacturing and services input prices remained sticky and elevated in September for The US per the S and P Global PMI report.

顽固的通胀数据继续困扰刚开启降息周期的美联储。联储经济预测摘要显示GDP增长预期上调、失业率预期下降、通胀预期上升，却仍在降息。市场预计年底前还将有两次降息。若美联储判断正确经济改善，低利率可能催生泡沫；若判断错误经济恶化，则存在衰退风险。

Stubborn inflation numbers continue to be a bane for the Fed who just started its rate cutting cycle. The Fed's summary of economic projections is projecting higher GDP, lower unemployment, and higher inflation, yet it's still cutting rates. In fact, the market is expecting two more rate cuts by the end of the year. If the Fed is right and the economy does improve, lower rates could cause bubble conditions. But if the Fed is wrong and the economic situation deteriorates, there's risk of recession.

日本央行上周宣布计划出售约79.5万亿日元（5370亿美元）的ETF持仓，按每年6200亿日元（42亿美元）的速度需逾百年才能清仓。此举可能压制日股，但嘉信国际研究总监米歇尔·吉布利表示这仅占东京证交所主板交易额的0.5%，影响有限。国防股因特朗普建议北约国家应拦截侵犯欧洲领空的俄军机而上涨，其言论标志着对北约援乌态度的转变。美国航空航天制造商Redwire上涨1.41%，该公司为可能因战争升级受益的欧洲国家生产无人机等军事装备。

The Bank of Japan announced plans last week to start selling its ETF holdings of approximately 79,500,000,000,000.0 yen or $537,000,000,000. The Bank of Japan plans to sell at a pace of 620,000,000,000 yen or $4,200,000,000 per year, which would take it over one hundred years to unload its holdings. The selling could be a drag on Japanese stocks, but Michelle Gibley, director of international research at Schwab, said this is only 0.5% of trading value on the Tokyo Stock Exchange prime market, so it's unlikely to make a dent in trading. Defense stocks rallied on president Trump's suggestion that NATO countries should defend against Russian aircraft that violate European airspace amid a broader shift in its tone toward NATO's helping Ukraine win the war against Russia. American aerospace manufacturer Redwire rallied 1.41%, which manufactures drones and other military equipment for European countries that may benefit if the war escalates.

诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司当日亦上涨1.59%。CBOE波动率指数期货从9月15.5低点升至17.31，18.5处形成阻力位，突破该关口或预示股市波动加剧及潜在回调。比特币日内走低逼近11万美元近期支撑位，但尾盘反弹收涨1.7%。

Northrop Grumman also rallied 1.59% on the day. The CBO volatility index futures are elevated from their September lows around the 15.5 level, currently trading at 17.31. A level of resistance appears to have formed at 18.5, which could be a pivotal signal for investors because a break of resistance signals greater volatility in stocks and potential pullback. Bitcoin traded lower on the day coming close to its recent support level of 110,000. However, it rallied off its trading session lows to close above 1.7%.

比特币相关企业的战略未能获得同等热情，延续了连续四天的下跌趋势，周三收盘时跌幅达1.36%。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌171.5点或0.37%，报46,121.28点。标普500指数回落18.95点或0.28%，收于6,006.37.97美元，纳斯达克综合指数下跌75.62点或0.33%，报22,497.85点。

Bitcoin treasury company strategy failed to find the same enthusiasm and extended its losing streak to four days after closing 1.36% lower on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 171.5 points or 0.37% to forty six thousand one twenty one point two eight. The S and P 500 index pulled back 18.95 points or 0.28% to $6006.37.97, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 75.62 points or 0.33% to 22,497.85.

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