科技公司财报、迪士尼动态及国债拍卖成焦点

欢迎收听嘉信理财市场动态播客，我们通过回顾近期新闻和展望未来，为您做好每个交易日的准备。

Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead.

我是基思·兰斯福德，以下是嘉信理财对11月10日周一市场的早盘展望。

I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Monday, November 10.

本周投资者将迎来国债拍卖、几份关键科技公司财报以及迪士尼的业绩更新。此前由于科技股引发的抛售潮，华尔街遭遇了一个月来最糟糕的一周。

Treasury auctions, a few key tech related earnings reports, and an update from the house of the mouse, Walt Disney, await investors this week after Wall Street suffered its worst week in a month, thanks to a tech fueled sell off.

对AI相关股票估值的担忧导致以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上周下跌3%，并一度使标普500指数自四月下旬以来首次跌破50日均线。

Valuation concerns for AI related stocks took the tech heavy NASDAQ Composite down 3% last week and briefly pushed the S and P 500 index below its fifty day moving average for the first time since late April.

AI龙头英伟达较近期历史高点下跌11%，整个芯片板块股票表现疲软。

AI leader Nvidia is down 11% from recent all time highs as stocks across the chip sector struggle.

与此同时，今年早些时候标志性抛售后出现的逢低买入现象并未立即救市，不过周五尾盘市场脱离低点时已显现相关迹象。

Meanwhile, the dip buying that characterized sell offs earlier this year didn't immediately come to the rescue, though there were signs of it by late Friday as markets finished well off their lows.

除AI担忧外，多种问题困扰着市场，很难判断哪个因素责任最大。

A variety of issues besides AI concerns dogged markets, and it's hard to decide which deserves the most blame.

对政府停摆经济影响的担忧可能是关键因素——周末来临之际，华盛顿立法者仍在竭力寻找感恩节前重启政府的方案。

Worries about the economic impact of the shutdown likely played a key role as Washington entered the weekend with legislators still scrambling to find a way to reopen the government before Thanksgiving.

由于空管人员停薪，10%航班取消可能让假日出行陷入困境。

Holiday travel could put the country in a bind with 10% of flights canceled, thanks to a lack of pay for air traffic controllers.

截至录音时停摆仍在持续，但有关民主党提议以延长平价医疗法案补贴一年为条件结束停摆的报道，使周五尾盘股市从低点回升，随后又传出共和党拒绝该方案的消息。

As of this recording, the shutdown persisted, but reports of a democratic bid to end it in a return for an extra year of affordable care act subsidies lifted stocks from their lows late Friday before news reports of Republicans rejecting it.

嘉信金融研究中心衍生品研究策略总监内森·彼得森表示：'这次史上最长的政府停摆似乎正在削弱消费者信心，劳动力市场也出现更多疲软迹象。'

The government shutdown, which has been the longest in history, appears to be denting consumer confidence, and there have been more signs of softness in the labor market, said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

此外，投资者仍在消化美联储更鹰派的立场，并担忧下月不会降息。

Additionally, investors are still digesting the Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance and are worried rates won't get cut next month.

从技术面看，在标普500指数创下史上第三长保持在50日均线上方的纪录后，市场或许本就该回调。

The market also may have simply been due for a pullback, technically, and after the S and P 500 index posted its third longest stretch in history above its fifty day moving average.

就科技板块而言，投资者仍重点关注甲骨文和Meta平台等公司的大额支出，寻求这些投入最终将提升利润的证据。

For tech specifically, investors remain focused on heavy spending by firms like Oracle and Meta Platforms seeking evidence that the outlays will ultimately boost profit.

CNBC周五晚间报道称，部分投资者重点关注这些企业的资本支出占年收入比例，其中甲骨文和Meta的支出水平较高。

Some investors put the spotlight on capital spending by these firms as a percentage of annual revenue with Oracle and Meta seen at high levels, CNBC reported late Friday.

本周的关键在于科技股是否会迎来逢低买入的回归，还是投资者决定从更具投机性和高估值的个股转向更优质的科技股，或是转向国债、美元等被视为安全领域的资产。

The question this week is if dip buying returns in tech or investors decide to rotate out of some of the more speculative and highly valued names perhaps into higher quality tech stocks or perceived areas of safety like treasuries or the dollar.

彼得森指出，政府停摆问题的解决是新一周的另一个不确定因素，因为这可能为投资者购买债务提供借口。

A resolution to the shutdown is another wild card for the new week because it could provide an excuse for investors to buy the debt, Peterson noted.

国债能否获得买需可能取决于今天下午开始的一系列拍卖，首轮将发行三年期票据。

Whether treasuries see buying demand could depend on a series of auctions starting early this afternoon with three year notes on the block.

周三将进行十年期国债拍卖。

Wednesday features a ten year treasury note auction.

政府停摆可能加剧对美国经济的不确定性，或许会抑制对国债的兴趣并导致收益率上升。

The shutdown could raise uncertainty around The US economy, perhaps limiting interest in treasuries and causing yields to rise.

尽管对经济不稳存在担忧，但国债收益率自美联储上次降息以来普遍上涨。

Treasury yields are generally up from before the Fed's last rate cut despite worries about a shaky economy.

上周投资者弗林虽受十月裁员数据重压，但优于预期的私营部门就业增长报告带来了鼓舞。

Last week saw investors Flynn shed heavy October layoffs data but encouraged by a better than expected private jobs growth report.

密歇根大学周五公布的11月消费者信心初值暴跌至50.3，远低于10月的53.6和去年同期的71.8——即便71.8按历史标准来看也属低位。

Preliminary November consumer sentiment released Friday by the University of Michigan crumbled to 50.3, well below October's 53.6 and far under 71.8 a year ago, though even 71.8 is low by historic standards.

市场普遍预期总体信心指数为54。

Consensus had been 54 for headline sentiment.

美联储密切关注的长期通胀预期从10月的3.9%降至3.6%，成为这份黯淡报告中难得的亮点。

Long run inflation expectations closely watched by the Fed dipped to 3.6% from 3.9% in October, one bright spot in an otherwise bleak report.

根据CME美联储观察工具，截至周五晚间市场对12月降息的预期概率为66%，但期货市场的预测未必准确。

Expectations for a December rate cut were 66% by late Friday according to the CME Fed watch tool, but the futures market isn't necessarily right.

嘉信理财金融研究中心首席固定收益策略师凯西·琼斯表示：'必须记住，如果通胀不回落，美联储的降息空间十分有限。'

It's important to remember that the Fed only has so much room to cut rates if inflation doesn't come down, said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

未来数日将有数位美联储官员发表讲话，其中周三将迎来美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒和斯蒂芬·迈伦的发言。

Several Fed speakers line up in coming days with Wednesday featuring Fed governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Myron.

本周财报公司数量不多，但包括应用材料、思科、Core Weave和迪士尼等行业巨头。

Earnings this week are sparse but include heavy hitters like Applied Materials, Cisco, Core Weave, and Walt Disney.

投资者并不一定会嘉奖表现良好的公司。

Investors aren't necessarily rewarding companies that did well.

嘉信理财中心首席投资策略师Liz Ann Saunders在近期播客中表示：‘我们在财报季观察到市场敏感度显著提升。’

What we are seeing in earning season is a heightened amount of sensitivity, said Liz Ann Saunders, chief investment strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research in a recent podcast.

你会发现业绩未达预期的公司受到不成比例的惩罚，而即使小幅超预期的公司相对于整体市场表现也未能获得太多回报。

You're seeing companies that miss disproportionately punished, and even the mild beats are not getting terribly rewarded relative to overall market performance.

在财报季结束后表现异常出色的股票都是那些大幅超预期的公司，因此我认为市场容错空间已有所变化。

The stocks that have done incredibly well in the immediate aftermath of earnings season have been the huge beats, so I think the margin of error has changed a bit.

标普500指数成分股中约90%已公布业绩，目前67%的公司营收超预期，82%的公司盈利超预期。

Roughly 90% of S and P 500 companies have reported results, and so far, 67% have beat on the top line, while 82% have beat on the bottom line.

营收增长率为8.19%，每股收益增长率为11.75%。

Revenue growth is 8.19%, and earnings per share growth is 11.75%.

周五，机场延误加剧成为头条新闻。

Increasing delays at airports made headlines Friday.

然而多家主要航空公司股价上涨2%以上，因市场预期政府停摆将得到解决。目前尚不清楚停摆影响范围是否超出少数明显受影响的领域。

However, several major airline stocks rose 2% or more amid hopes of the shutdown being resolved, and it's unclear how much impact the shutdown is having beyond a few obvious places.

亚特兰大联储目前预计第三季度国内生产总值(GDP)将健康增长4%，高于此前预测的3.9%。

The Atlanta Fed now sees third quarter gross domestic product or GDP growth at a healthy 4%, up from 3.9% previously.

许多分析师则持较不乐观态度。

Many analysts are less optimistic.

板块方面，防御性板块周五继续保持领先地位，与周四情况相同。

Sector wise, defensive areas stayed in the lead Friday as they had Thursday.

能源、必需消费品、材料、公用事业和房地产板块均上涨1%以上，表明资金正从信息技术和通信服务板块轮动至这些领域——这两个板块本周多数时间表现垫底，周五依旧如此。

Energy, the staples, materials, utilities, and real estate all rallied 1% or more, suggesting rotation into those sectors and out of information technology and communication services, which brought up the rear Friday as they had much of the week.

芯片类股周五继续低迷，下跌1.4%。

Chip stocks continued to languish Friday and falling 1.4%.

甲骨文、超微半导体和超微电脑股价均下跌1%至2%，尽管英伟达从最严重的亏损中反弹且Palantir股价攀升，但美满科技股价暴跌2.5%。

Oracle, advanced microdevices, and super microcomputer all fell one to 2% even as Nvidia clawed back from its worst losses and Palantir climbed, but Marvell Technology shares dove two and a half percent.

周五其他个股方面，特斯拉下跌3.6%，此前股东批准了向CEO埃隆·马斯克提供1万亿美元的薪酬方案。

In other individual stocks Friday, Tesla dropped 3.6% after shareholders approved a $1,000,000,000,000 pay package for CEO Elon Musk.

《纽约时报》报道称，该方案要求马斯克实现雄心勃勃的目标。

The package requires him to meet ambitious goals, the New York Times reported.

股价一周前曾攀升至近475美元，但本周收盘时约为430美元。

Shares had climbed to nearly $475 just a week ago, but finished the week around $430.

周五加密货币相关股票反弹，比特币从跌破10万美元的试探中回升——该价位上次触及是在6月下旬。

Crypto related shares rallied Friday as Bitcoin bounced from its flirtation with levels below $100,000 last touched in late June.

比特币当日收涨2.8%，但本周累计下跌超5%。

Bitcoin finished the day up 2.8%, but the week down more than 5%.

周五图表走势方面，标普500指数自4月以来首次跌破50日移动均线，但收盘时远高于该均线。

In chart action Friday, the S and P 500 index scraped below its fifty day moving average for the first time since the April, but ended well above it.

当前50日均线接近6,006.70美元。

The fifty day now is near $6,006.70.

彼得森表示，如果在50日均线处未能获得支撑，这可能意味着在企稳前需要进一步探明价格下行空间。

If support doesn't hold up at the fifty day, this could suggest some more downside price discovery is needed before stabilization, Peterson said.

如果标普500指数能在其50日简单移动均线处确立支撑，这将有助于增强逢低买入行为，至少在短期内如此。

If the S and P five hundred can establish support at its fifty day simple moving average, then this could help embolden dip buying behavior, at least on a near term basis.

然而，若未能实现，我认为这可能会引发市场高估值领域更多的获利了结行为，股票可能面临进一步下跌。

However, if not, I think this could foster more profit taking in higher valued areas of the market, and stocks could experience additional downside.

道琼斯工业平均指数周五上涨74.8点，涨幅0.16%，报46,009.78点。

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 74.8 points Friday or 0.16% to $46009.78.1.

标普500指数上涨8.48点，涨幅0.13%，报6,728.80点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌49.45点，跌幅0.22%，报23,004.54点。

The S and P 500 index climbed 8.48 points or 0.13% to six thousand seven twenty eight point eight zero, and the Nasdaq Composite dipped to 49.45 points or 0.22% to 23,004.54.

本周道琼斯工业平均指数累计下跌1.21%。

For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.21%.

标普500指数下跌1.63%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌3.04%，创下自四月以来最差单周表现。

The S and P five hundred index lost 1.63%, and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 3.04%, its worst week since April.

基准十年期国债收益率周五维持震荡走势，经过一系列波动后，最终周跌幅仅1个基点，报4.09%。

The benchmark ten year treasury yield marched in place Friday, ending the week down just one basis point at 4.09% after some volatile moves.

以上是嘉信理财市场动态播客的内容。

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