三利好反致股市下跌

欢迎收听嘉信理财市场动态播客，我们为您回顾近期新闻并展望未来，助您为每个交易日做好准备。我是科莱特·奥克莱尔，以下是嘉信对9月26日周五市场的早间观察。积极的经济数据对股市反而形成利空，GDP、失业金申领和耐用品数据均超预期后，标普500指数开盘下跌1%。这些报告可能推迟降息预期，并降低2025年再降息两次的概率。12月降息预期仅一周内就从83%降至61%。

Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead. I'm Colette O'Clare, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Friday, September 26. Positive economic news became a negative for stocks, prompting the S and P 500 to fall 1% on the open after the GDP, unemployment claims, and durable goods data all came in better than expected. These announcements may push out rate cut expectations and lower the probability of two more cuts in 2025. The December rate cut expectation moved from 83% to 61% in just one week.

在连续两个月下滑后，8月耐用品订单环比增长2.9%，远优于预期的-0.3%。运输设备成为最大赢家，增长7.9%。飞机支出显著增加，国防飞机及零部件激增50.1%，非国防类增长21.6%。核心耐用品订单超预期（预期-0.1%，实际+0.4%），剔除国防订单后增幅达1.9%。嘉信固定收益策略师库珀·霍华德表示：'虽只是单次报告，但暗示经济仍具韧性'。

After two months of declines, August durable orders grew 2.9% month over month, which was much better than the projected minus 0.3%. Transportation was a big winner, rising 7.9%. Aircraft spending rose with defensive aircraft and parts booming 50.1% and non defense rising 21.6%. Core durable goods topped estimates of minus 0.1% by rising 0.4%, up 1.9 when excluding defense. It's one report, but it suggests the economy continues to hold up, said Cooper Howard, fixed income strategist with Schwab.

消费者支出从1.6%上修至2.5%，显示消费者仍保持良好状态并持续消费。失业金申领数据表明劳动力市场无需担忧——首次申领与持续申领人数均低于预期。霍华德称：'劳动力市场现状仍是既不增聘也不裁员，并未出现断崖式下跌，这为美联储留出分析未来招聘趋势的空间'。

Consumer spending was revised up to 2.5% from 1.6%, which shows that the consumer is still in decent shape and continues to spend. Unemployment claims numbers suggest there's little reason to worry about the labor market. Both initial claims and continuing claims came in lower than expected. The story with the labor market continues to be no hire, no fire, said Howard. The labor market isn't falling off a cliff, which leaves the Fed room to analyze future hiring trends.

美国第二季度GDP第三次估值达3.8%，远超此前3.3%的预期，创2023年以来最强表现。修正数据包括净出口与消费者支出的大幅增长。PCE通胀指标升至2.5%（前值1.6%），商品和服务价格的同步上涨共同推动了这一增长。

The third estimate of second quarter U. S. Gross domestic product, or GDP, was 3.8%, well above the previous estimate of 3.3%, the strongest performance since the 2023. Revisions included a big rise in net exports and consumer spending. The PCE inflation metric rose 2.5%, which was also higher than the previous 1.6% and was boosted by similar increases in goods and services.

尽管主要指数均接近或处于历史新高，但市场参与度和广度并未同步提升——当前标普500仅63%成分股高于200日均线，纳斯达克指数该比例为55%。本轮涨势仍由少数龙头股驱动，其中多属'MAG七巨头'。罗素2000小型股指数上周试图扩大市场广度，甚至突破四年阻力位创历史新高，可惜随后跌破支撑位回落至2021年高点下方，疑似假突破。

With all the major indices at or around fresh all time highs, you might expect there would be more participants and better breadth. That's just not the case right now as the S and P 500 only shows 63% above two hundred day moving averages and the Nasdaq 55% above the two hundred day moving average. The rally is still driven by a handful of leaders, many of which are in the MAG seven. The Russell two thousand Small Cap Index tried to add some breadth to the market and even broke a four year resistance level to hit an all time high last week. Unfortunately, the move appears to be a head fake as the Russell two thousand broke support and fell back below its 2021 high.

小型企业通常利润微薄甚至无盈利，短期利率下降有助于控制利息成本。但随着市场预期美联储推迟降息，这部分费用节省也将延后。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌173.96点（0.38%）至45947.32；标普500指数下滑33.25点（0.5%）至6604.72；纳斯达克综合指数下跌113.16点（0.5%）至22384.69。

Small caps companies are often working with thin or no profit, and lower short term rates help keep interest costs down. However, with the market expecting the Fed to delay rate cuts, the expense savings will be delayed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 173.96 points or 0.38% to 40 five thousand 947.32. The S and P 500 index slid 33.25 points or 0.5% to 6,604.72. And the NASDAQ Composite dropped 113.16 points or 0.5% to 22,384.69.

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