Kevin Mahn "Surprised" by Stock Market Strength, Favors KTOS, HII & LHX

在我们全面审视市场之前，先欢迎我们的下一位嘉宾。

Before I look across the markets broadly, we wanna welcome in our next guest.

他是希尼安与沃什资产管理公司的总裁兼首席投资官凯文·马赫。

That's Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment officer at Hinian and Wash Asset Management.

好的，凯文。

Alright, Kevin.

我们又经历了一个动荡的星期，石油市场再次成为主导因素。

We're experiencing another turbulent week with oil markets really setting the tone once again.

但你觉得这种情况还会持续多久？

But how long are you expecting this to continue?

确实如此。

Yeah.

现在所有焦点都集中在石油上。

I mean, it really is all about oil right now.

如果从全局来看，戴安，伊朗的石油产量只占全球总产量的百分之三到五。

If you put this in perspective, Diane, only about three to 5% of the world's oil output comes from my Iran.

对吧？

Right?

有意思的是，其中90%都运往了中国。

Interestingly enough, 90% of that goes to China.

没错。

Right.

所以影响算不上巨大，但也不能完全忽视。

So it's not overly significant, but it's not necessarily insignificant.

关键在于霍尔木兹海峡，因为在冲突发生前，全球20%的石油供应都要经过这条海峡。

The key point is obviously the Strait Of Hormuz because prior to the conflict, 20% of the world's oil supply flew through that Strait.

现在这条通道已经无法通行了。

Now it can no longer get through that Strait.

所以冲突拖得越久，对油价的影响就越大，经济增速就越慢，消费者支出也会受压，最终波及投资者情绪，市场可能出现更明显的回调。

So the longer this lasts, the more of an impact that has on oil prices, the more that slows down the economy, that more impacts consumer spending, ultimately trickles into investor sentiment, and you could see more of a pronounced pullback.

这目前不是我们的主要预期，但却是最大的风险。

That's not our base case right now, but that's the biggest concern.

你刚才说这并不是你的基本预期。

You said it's not your base case.

那你的基本预期是什么？

So what is your base case?

我的基本预期还是遵循总统最初说的，四到五周，至少要等到有一两艘油轮成功通过海峡为止。

My base case is still following what the president told us when this initially started, four to five weeks, at least until we start seeing one or two tankers get moved their way successfully through the strait.

我觉得这场冲突的持续时间会远长于这个周期。

I think the overall conflict lasts much longer than that.

但只要一旦看到石油运输恢复畅通，至少能给油市交易员和不少投资者带来一些缓解。

But once we start seeing free flowing oil again, that should at least give some respite to oil traders and to a lot of investors.

所以我很好奇，整体来看，是不是因为——我跟我的同事汤姆·怀特聊过，他说，眼下中东地缘冲突这么激烈，股市却没出现像样的回调。

So I wonder if the view overall because, you know, one of the things I was talking about with one of my colleagues, Tom White, is that, you know, you haven't seen a major pullback in equity markets given the geopolitical conflict that we're seeing in The Middle East.

我不禁想，是不是市场也抱着和你一样的基本预期？

I wonder if that's the market that has the same base case.

是的。

Yeah.

说实话，我现在还挺惊讶市场没再跌更多，我觉得大家还是抱着‘逢低买入’的心态。

I mean, I'm surprised the market hasn't pulled back even more right now, and I still think we have some buy the dip mentality out there.

我知道我们现在的投资者和客户还没慌，这在这样的环境下特别重要，毕竟你不希望投资者抛开他们长期的投资策略。

I know our investors, our clients right now aren't panicking just yet, which is very helpful in this type of environment because you don't want investors to abandon what their long term investment strategies are.

坚持你自己的风险承受能力。

Stay true to your risk tolerance.

别想着躲到一边去抄底或逃顶。

Don't try and go to the sidelines and time the market.

这些做法全都是自找麻烦。

All those things are recipes for disaster.

明白了。

Okay.

所以这么做就是自找麻烦。

So that's a recipe for disaster.

那正确的做法到底是什么？

Then what is the overall recipe?

现在就坚持计划，别被波动牵着走。

Stick to the plan right now and write out the volatility?

headlines 你没法完全无视，但你也得看看伊朗冲突之前哪些东西一直表现不错。

I think you can't ignore the headlines, but you also have to look at what was working prior to the Iran conflict starting.

只要你跟着资金走，就能发现那些增长机会。

And if you follow the money, you found all those investment growth opportunities.

就连航空航天和国防领域，早在冲突之前就已经显现出来了。

You saw them in aerospace and defense even before this conflict.

没错。

True.

人工智能基础设施也是，冲突之前就已经在涨了，未来十年大概率还会继续。

You saw it in AI infrastructure even before this conflict, and that will likely be the case for the balance of this decade.

能源领域也是，不管是天然气、石油、清洁能源还是核能，电力需求太关键了，全都值得看。

You see it in areas like power, the all important need for power, whether it's natural gas, oil, clean energy, nuclear energy, all of that's on the table.

现在生物科技领域的并购活动也开始升温了。

And we're now starting to see a pickup in M and A activity on the biotech front.

但现在这些新闻背后，依然存在不少增长机会，只是大家都太盯着油价了。

So there are still growth opportunities underlying these headlines now, but everyone is hyper focused on the price of oil.

咱们聊聊你看好的一些公司吧。

Let's talk about a few names that you like.

你挺看好L3Harris的。

You like L3Harris.

今年到目前为止，它的表现一直很突出。

That's been a big outperformer year to date.

今年到目前为止，股价已经涨了20%多，差不多24%了。

It's up more than 20 it's about 24% so far this year.

现在还有机会进场吗？

Is there still an entry point?

我觉得当然还有。

I think there certainly is.

现在它的股价大概是盈利的30倍，股息率大约1.3%，今年股价已经涨了20%以上，而且它还在为各种导弹和导弹防御系统提供关键部件。

If you look at their trading about 30 time for earnings right now, they got a dividend yield of about 1.3% stocks up over 20% year to date, but they're also supplying all the missiles and missile protection.

你看到那些拦截弹升空，应对伊朗的反击了吗？

Do you see all those interceptors going up there to thwart the Iranian counterattacks?

我就想到L3Harris这家公司。

I think of L3Harris.

你有没有想过，我们是不是也该建一个类似以色列‘铁穹’的防御系统？

You think about our desire to build our own iron dome similar to what Israel has?

对。

Mhmm.

我还是觉得L3Harris。

I think of L3Harris.

明白了。

Okay.

你名单上还有亨廷顿英格尔斯，今年到目前为止，它的表现也远超美国大盘，也就是标普500指数。

And then you've also got Huntington Ingalls on your list, another outperformer so far this year compared to the broadest benchmark of US stock, the S and P five hundred.

没错。

Yes.

这也涨了超过百分之二十。

That's also up more than 20%.

你现在还看好它吗？

You like it still here?

我确实很看好。

I I certainly do.

它的股息收益率大约1.3%，市盈率才24到25倍，而且还是核动力潜艇的设计方。

They have a dividend yield of around 1.3%, only trading around 24, 25 times forward earnings, and they're designer of nuclear powered submarines.

我们觉得上周发生了一件大事，这是二战以来首次有美国潜艇击沉了敌方舰船。

We think last week when for the first time since World War two, a US submarine sank an adversary ship.

那这些能执行这种任务的核潜艇是谁造的？

Well, who's building those nuclear submarines to perform those type of capabilities?

就是亨廷顿英格尔斯。

That's Huntington Ingalls.

明白了。

Okay.

你清单上还有一个，克雷托斯。

And then another one you've got on your list, Kratos.

今年到目前为止，它已经涨了大约17%。

Year to date, that's up about 17% so far this year.

又是一个表现突出的。

Another outperformer.

不过呢，

But, again,

你说到表现突出的，戴安。

you talk about outperformers, Diane.

对。

Right.

没关系。

That's alright.

不是的。

No.

大家都在寻找机会。

People are searching for opportunities.

在我们目前面临的这些波动之前——不管是地缘政治冲突，还是所谓的SaaS寒冬，或是私人信贷市场的麻烦——人们都说今年会是选股的好年头。

And, look, before all of this volatility that we have, whether we're talking about geopolitical conflict or what's been dubbed the SaaS pocalypse, the issues in private credit markets.

在这些问题还没冒出来的时候，大家就觉得今年是选股的好时机。

Before all of those bubbled up, people said this year would be a stock picker's year.

这些都是你比较看好的股票。

So these are some names that you like.

Kratos，你现在还看好它吗？

Kratos, you still like it at this point right now?

我还是看好。

I do.

无人飞机和无人机技术。

Autonomous aircraft, drone technologies.

他们显然是最早进入这个领域的。

Obviously, they were on the first to the market.

它们还通过无人机技术协助识别导弹的打击目标，支持当前的军事行动。

They also are helping this current missus by helping to identify where the missiles should strike using drone technologies.

无人机是未来的趋势。

Drones are the wave of the future.

现在它们已经成了现实中的主流。

They're currently becoming a wave of the present.

我明白。

I know.

尤其是想想伊朗那边的局势，那边用了大量无人机。

Especially when you think about, you some of the disruption on the Iran side, there's a lot of drones being used.

没错。

Absolutely.

双方都在用，而且这种趋势还会继续扩大。

On both sides, and we're gonna

这确实说得通。

need This is fair.

反无人机措施也在兴起，这为不少公司带来了新机会。

Drone countermeasures as well, and that creates other opportunities for companies.

我问你个问题。

So let me ask you this.

我想把话题拉回来，聊聊油价现在怎么样，这对通胀意味着什么。

I wanna broaden back out the conversation to where oil prices are and where this leaves us with regard to inflation.

大家预期通胀又要开始回升了。

The expectation is we are gonna see inflation

是的。

Yes.

开始再次上升。

Start to uptick again.

最新的消费者价格指数还没反映出能源价格的实际走势和未来趋势。

The most recent CPI is not reflecting, you know, where energy prices are, where they're going right now.

你觉得这会涨到什么程度？

How hot do you think this will get?

这肯定会影响整体CPI和整体PCE。

It's certainly gonna impact headline CPI, headline PC.

但不会影响核心数据，因为核心数据你懂的，是剔除了食品和能源价格的。

It won't affect core because core, as you know, strips out food and energy prices.

尽管二月的CPI报告——就是昨天发布的那版——没包含这些，PCE则是上星期五公布的。

But even though it wasn't factored into that February report CPI, at least that was released yesterday, PC we released on Friday.

对。

Mhmm.

美联储心里有数。

The Fed knows.

美联储下周就要开会了。

And the Fed is meeting next week.

很可能会把通胀可能飙升的因素考虑进去。

And in all likelihood, they're taking into consideration that inflation is likely to spike.

这正好和我们上周看到的那份就业报告同时发生。

That's happening at the same time that when we saw some labor report last week.

所以美联储现在真是进退两难。

So the Fed's in a between a rock and a hard place right now.

他们既不能降息来刺激就业市场，也不能加息来应对油价飙升带来的潜在通胀，因为这跟劳动力市场脱不开关系。

They can't accommodate by lowering rates to help the job market, and they can't raise rate to help fight potential inflation coming from the surge in oil prices because of the labor market.

所以我觉得今年上半年他们啥也不做。

So I think they do nothing for the first half of this year.

我们将会迎来一位新的美联储主席。

We will get a new chair of the Federal Reserve.

很多人认为他会比鲍威尔更偏向宽松。

Many believe he's gonna be more dovish than chair Powell.

但我目前还不太确信这一点。

I'm not exactly convinced of that just yet.

也许今年下半年会降两次息，但别指望美联储近期会有什么动作。

Maybe we get two rate cuts during the second half of this year, don't but expect anything soon from the Fed.

你对这一点不太信服吗？

Are you not convinced of that?

因为你要想想美联储的双重目标，再看看现在的通胀水平，要降到2%真的特别难。

Because, you know, when you think about the Fed's mandate and where we are on inflation, it's just been really tricky to get to that two handle.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Yes.

而且，凯文·沃什一直以来都坚决主张缩减美联储的资产负债表规模。

And, also, Kevin Worsch has been very adamant over his history on trying to reduce the size of the Fed balance sheet.

所以我觉得他在压低美联储资产负债表规模上会起关键作用，这会影响长期利率，但未必会那么鸽派地降短期利率——毕竟，要达到他们认为的中性利率3%，其实只需要再降两次就够了。

So I think he's going to be very, very instrumental in trying to lower the size of the Fed balance sheet that will influence the longer the curve, not necessarily be so, dovish in terms of cutting shorter term interest rates because getting to their neutral rate of 3% only requires two more rate cuts.

今年说不定两次降息都会发生。

Maybe we get both of those rate cuts this year.

如果经济继续按现在的节奏运行，劳动力市场保持稳定，而且撇开油价暴涨这个因素，通胀还能持续放缓，那我们就别指望美联储还会有什么大动作了。

We shouldn't expect that much more on the Fed if the economy continues at this rate, if the labor market stays where it is, and if inflation absent this oil surge continues to moderate.

今天VIX指数大概在26左右，你怎么看这个水平？尤其是放在历史背景下看。

VIX today sitting around 26 right now, how do you interpret that, especially in a in a historic context?

目前波动率确实偏高，但还没到历史最高水平。

We're seeing elevated volatility, but not the highest ever, obviously.

你觉得该怎么衡量现在的波动率水平？

How do you measure where we are with volatility?

我觉得今年内还会时不时出现一些短期波动，不光是跟伊朗局势有关。

I think we're gonna see more short terms of bouts of volatility throughout the course of this year, not necessary just related to the Iran conflict.

还有中期选举、债务上限谈判这些事都要来了。

Of course, we have midterm elections come up, debt ceiling debate talks.

现在政府部分部门还在停摆。

Portions of the government are still shut down right now.

我们得赶紧解决政府拨款问题，让更多的边境巡逻人员返岗。

We need to discuss funding the federal government, getting more TS agents back to work.

外面这么多不确定性，迟早会推高市场波动。

There's so much uncertainty right out there that's gonna lead into volatility.

但抛开这些表面现象，你还是会看到我之前提到的那些增长机会。

But underneath the surface, you're gonna still find those growth opportunities I spoke about earlier.

谢谢你提到这些机会，毕竟大家都喜欢看到希望。

I love that you brought us some opportunities because people like yes.

因为在动荡时期，人们总想找到一些机会和光明的迹象。

Because people like to find opportunities and glimmers of optimism in turbulent times.

但现实一点说，波动还会继续，但增长的机会依然存在，而且就在那里。

But being realistic, there's gonna be more volatility, but there's still opportunity for growth, and they come up there.

明白了。

Alright.

我们也不能忽视潜在的下行风险。

So we have to think about the downside risk as well.

今天就先谈到这里。

We'll leave it there.

这是希尼安与威尔资产管理部门的总裁兼首席投资官凯文·马赫。

That is Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment officer of Hinian and Welsh asset manage