三大巨头：GOOGL、CRML、SOFI

现在到了三大重点时刻。

It's time for the big three.

我们为您准备了三只股票和三个图表。

We've got three stocks and three charts for you.

当然，里克·图卡特将为我们解读这些图表。

Rick Tucat, of course, here to take us through the charts.

今天为我们解读交易的是阿基里斯·劳里埃·小，莱雷亚财富管理公司的创始人兼首席执行官。

Here to take us through the trades today, Achilles Laurier Junior, the founder and CEO of Larea Wealth Management.

很高兴你们两位能加入我们。

Great to have you both with us.

阿基里斯，我想从一个宏观视角开始，谈谈我们在开启至关重要的美联储周之际所看到的市场动态。

Achilles, I'd love to start with a big picture thought on the market action that we're seeing as we are now kicking off the all important Fed week.

是的。

Yeah.

在美联储会议之前，有很多有趣的事情即将发生。

There's a lot of interesting things coming up, before the Fed meeting.

首先是一些我称之为乏味的内容。

A lot of what I would call snoozing things first.

但让我们谈谈我们对市场走势的看法。

But let's talk about where we think the market's going.

首先，我们看到通胀开始上升，因此周三即将公布的美联储行动或不作为显得尤为重要。

First off, we're seeing inflation start to creep up and hence the Fed action or inaction coming up on Wednesday.

第二点。

Second thing.

此外，企业盈利也在增长，我们看到的增幅在5%到9%之间，这可能会推动标普指数在2026年第一季度轻松升至7400点左右。

We're also seeing an increase as far as corporate earnings are concerned, and we've seen anywhere between five to 9% which could raise the S and P easily into the 7,400 range by for Q one twenty six.

所以，这是我们看到的另一点。

So that's another thing we're seeing.

我们在科技领域看到的另一个趋势。

Another thing we're seeing in the technology.

我的意思是，并不是每个人现在都涌入人工智能领域，航空航天和基础设施领域还有很多机会。

I mean, not everybody is going into the AI space at this particular point, and there are a lot of opportunities in aerospace, lot of opportunities in infrastructure.

所以这也是我们目前密切关注的另一个领域。

So this is another area that we're looking at very closely at this point.

我们总体认为，市场情绪积极，走势方向正确，尽管目前我们开始看到一些动力减弱，但一旦第一季度数据公布，市场将再次全速前进。

We think overall, the positive sentiment is the market is moving in the right direction, although we are starting to see lose a little steam at this particular point, but full steam ahead easily when q one comes out.

是的。

Yeah.

今天我们早上确实需要一点动力。

We could we could use a little steam this morning.

刚才我们在谈话的时候，我刚看了下行情板。

Right now, I was just checking the board while we were talking.

罗素指数还在持稳，但其他指数都承受压力。

The Russell's still holding on, but the rest under pressure.

你今天的选项也是如此。

And so are your choices today too.

我这边全面来看，三个指数都承受压力。

I was across the board, all three under pressure.

我们来谈谈第一个。

Let's talk about the first one.

你把谷歌列为第一个。

You've got Alphabet as your first one.

给我们讲讲这个选择，三大巨头中的第一个。

Walk us through this pick, this first pick for the big three.

是的。

Yeah.

我不太认同只持有该领域最大公司的做法。

And, you know, I'm not a big believer in own only owning the biggest in the sector.

当我们谈论芯片时，他们推出了一款令人兴奋的芯片，因为它是对英伟达的竞争。

You know, when we're talking about chips, they came out with a chip That was exciting because it's competition for Nvidia.

为什么不两者都持有呢？在投资组合中保持高质量，而在人们认为竞争加剧会压低价格时买入，岂不是最佳时机？

Why not own both of them, you know, high quality in the portfolio and what better time to own it than when people think that that increased competition is going to drive prices down.

如果你对这个领域随便说点什么，价格短期内根本不会下跌。

If you blurt anything about this particular sector, prices aren't going down any time soon.

就人工智能热潮而言，基础设施仍处于早期阶段，尽管目前已经开始略有上升，但现阶段很难对估值做出判断。我们预计谷歌（即 Alphabet）在这一领域的收入将实现两位数的增长。

We're still as far as the AI boom as far as the infrastructure in its infancy, how although it is right now starting to go up a little bit more, but valuations of very tough thing to put at this point, we're looking at a double digit growth in this sector for Google would look at alphabet.

我们预计增长率在百分之十二到十四之间，我认为这个数字在这个阶段已经算是保守的了。

We're looking at anywhere between twelve and fourteen percent and I would say that's on the conservative side at this particular point.

如果你想在投资组合中拥有高质量的科技股，那么持有这两类股票非常重要，这将是一个绝佳的补充。

It's important to note out you want to own both of these type stocks if you want a high quality tech in your portfolio, this could be a great addition.

或者，如果你已经在逐步建仓，现在也不是一个糟糕的入场时机。

Or if you're accumulating your own it already, not a bad price point to get in.

从长期持有的角度看，这会是高质量的投资。

And for long term hold Could be high quality.

关于这只股票，另一点我要强调的是，它并不仅仅关乎芯片。

Then another thing that I would say as far as this particular stock is concerned, it's not all about the chips.

这家公司仍有巨大的增长空间。

There's plenty of room to group for growth at this company.

正如我们常说的彩票那样：你得参与其中，才有机会赢。

And as we say here with the lottery, you gotta be in it to win it.

我绝对必须参与其中才能赢。

I absolutely gotta be in it to win it.

当我们讨论Alphabet和谷歌时，我们经常谈到这个话题，当它们进入这个潜在的芯片领域时，它们拥有如此多的多元化和众多不同的增长驱动因素。

This is a conversation we've had a lot when we talk about Alphabet and Google when they entered this potential chip trade here is that they have so much diversification and so many different growth drivers here.

但你提到这是一个不错的入场时机。

But you mentioned maybe a good point to get in.

目前股价为316.25美元，下跌了约1.75%。

Right now trading at 316.25, down about a percent and three quarters.

里克，当我们看图表时，我能看出这个陡峭的上升通道，但技术指标告诉我们什么？

Rick, when we look at the chart, you know, I can I can see this steeply upward moving channel, but what are the technicals telling us?

是的。

Yes.

如果你从更细致的角度来看，你会发现它的价格走势呈现出阶梯式形态：快速上涨后跟随横向盘整。

And if you were to look at it a little bit more from a granular perspective, you can see that it has this stair step type of price activity of rapid surges to the upside, followed by horizontal consolidation.

所以目前看来，我们似乎正处于另一个横向盘整阶段。

So right now it seems like we are within another of these more horizontal phases here.

你可以说，从短期来看，大约在3月15日到3月25日之间。

You could say very short term, you know, between about 03/15 to 03/25 or so.

但如果你把时间范围扩大一点，大约在2007年3月左右，我们之前曾达到过高点，之后才出现这里的向上跳空。

But really, if you were to expand out a little bit around 03/2007 or so is where we had our our highs roughly before we had our our gap to the upside here.

所以，从2006年3月到2007年3月，是向下的走势。

So, perhaps a 03/2006, 03/2007 to the downside.

然后，我们的日内高点是3.2867美元。

Then our intraday high is $3.28 67.

因此，这为我们未来的一些考量提供了参考点。

So, that gives us some points to consider here going forward.

当我们观察指数移动平均线时，黄色的21日EMA大约在304附近。

When we do look at our, exponential moving averages here, our yellow twenty one day EMA comes in at about three zero four.

所以，在这个跳空缺口被填补的位置，下方291附近还会有一层额外的支撑，此外还有一系列过去的高点。

So around that that where that gap would be filled, there would be an additional source of support here below that two ninety one, a series of old highs as well.

不过，就我们的移动平均线而言，没有其他均线足够接近，值得我们进一步关注。

In terms of our moving averages, though, not really too much else is close enough to warrant any more more attention than that here.

你知道，当出现快速上涨时，移动平均线就会落后。

You know, when you have these fast movements to the upside, the moving averages get left behind.

它们本质上是滞后的指标。

They're a lagging indicator by nature.

RSI 在这里给我们提供了一个值得考虑的有趣情况。

RSI giving us kind of an interesting situation here to consider here.

三角形趋势线相互收敛，频繁且反复地进入超买区域。

Triangular trend lines converging toward each other, rapid and repeated crossovers into the overbought territory.

但我们现在暂时放弃了这一态势。

But now we have given that up for now.

如果我们跌破那条绿色趋势线，情况会怎样，值得观察。

It'll be interesting to see what happens if we break below that green trend line as well.

最后，当我们查看成交量分布图时，可以清楚地看到这些交易节点，这些高交易量活动与这些水平区间基本吻合。

So, finally, when we look at our, volume profile study, you can easily see the trading nodes here, these heavy trading activities, kind of lining up with these horizontal ranges.

所以目前，我们正处于大约3.20附近的交易节点内，而下一个向下的节点大约在3.85附近。

So right right now, we're within the node near about three twenty or so, and the next node to the downside is around three eighty five.

所以，这些都是从这个思路出发需要考虑的要点。

So those are the the points to consider from that line of thinking.

是的。

Yeah.

目前是316.31。

And right now, three sixteen thirty one.

在过去六个月里，阿尔法贝塔的股价上涨了大约80%。

We're up about 80% over the last six months when it comes to alphabet.

不过，下一个选择的情况却大不相同。

Very different story, though, with this next pick.

过去一个月，关键金属承受了巨大压力。

Critical metals heavily under pressure the last month.

它们已经下跌了大约12%。

They've been down, you know, close to 12%.

你来谈谈你对这个标的的投资逻辑。

You walk through your thesis on this one.

是的。

Yeah.

这挺有趣的。

It's, it's funny.

我们这类属于价值型买家，总是寻找被低估的证券。

This is the type we're we're value buyers, so we're always looking for undervalued securities.

我们也在观察中国与美国之间的关系对它的影响。

We're also seeing the put you know the relationship between China and The U.

必须记住，我们曾经历一场贸易战，但至今尚未解决。不过，这只股票属于我所说的风险资本——如果你愿意将投资组合的1%到3%投入这样的标的，未来理应获得丰厚回报。

S affecting it at this particular point have to remember we had a trade war haven't resolved that at this particular point, But the stock is what I would call risk capital, you know, so if you're going to take one to 3% of your portfolio and put it into a name like this, you should be well rewarded going forward.

是的，它一直承受压力，跌幅达到两位数。

Yeah, it's been under pressure to the tune of double digits.

但当所有人都需要的东西跌到低点时，什么时候才是最好的买入时机？

But when is the best time to buy something that everybody needs?

美国。

The U.

美国需要这些稀有金属，你知道，而中国是这些金属最大的供应商。

S needs these rare metals, you know, and China is the biggest supplier of this.

我们美国这里真的没有这样的供应商。

We do not really have a supplier here in The United States.

所以这家公司是我认为目前行业内最具价值的，而且很容易在正向方面实现两位数的增长。

So this company critical is what I feel the best value in the sector right now and could be, easily double digit, working its way back on a double digit positive side.

我们认为目前它的估值被低估了，未来18个月内可能上涨约10%。

We think that it's undervalued at this particular point could go up about 10% in the next eighteen months.

但我要重申，这属于风险资本。

But it is, I repeat risk capital.

我们展望这种股票的未来，发现它仍有潜力。

The you know the what we see going forward with a stock like this is that There was potential.

它曾经是必需的，但现在应该成为我们投资组合中风险资本的一部分，为整体注入一些高能动力。

There was, this it was necessary, but now it should be part of the risk capital part of our portfolios and give things a little bit of high octane, too.

它还可能进一步下跌。

Could go down further.

我们现在会继续增持。

We would accumulate more right now.

我们正在悄悄地增持。

We're quietly accumulating.

但如果它再下跌一个点，我会更积极一些，但目前我看不出会有这种情况。

But get a little more aggressive if it should go down another point, but I don't see that at this particular point.

我看到华盛顿和中国、北京正在为改善贸易寻求解决方案，而这只股票将长期受益于这一点。

I see Washington and China and Beijing actually working on solutions for the betterment of trades, and this stock is gonna be a beneficiary of that long term.

阿喀琉斯，你提到了高能级。

And Achilles, you mentioned high octane.

我之前说它们在过去一个月承受了压力，但当我看过去六个月，它们上涨了近600%，你完全可以在这张技术图上看到那个明显的飙升。

Now I said they had been under pressure the last month, but when I look at the last six months, they are up almost 600%, which you can clearly see that spike popping there on the technicals here.

所以，里克，给我们讲讲我们看到的走势吧，你知道，我们明显有过一个高点，但此后已经大幅回落了。

So, Rick, walk us through the action that we have seen, you know, where we clearly had a peak, but we have since, you know, fallen way off of that.

你知道，这个飙升对我而言代表了多种含义，因为如果你当时看多这只股票并做了一笔成功的交易，那很好。

You know, that spike represents many different things to me here because if you were bullish in this name and you made a good trade, that's great.

但这也代表了这里的立法风险。

But it also represents legislative risk here.

你可以看到，正是在政府开始介入锂公司等领域的时期，价格出现了这个走势。

You can see that this is kind of the area when the government started taking a stake in lithium companies and everything.

因此，需要考虑到这个特定区域的格局可能会迅速变化。

So just something to consider that the landscape could change very quickly, in this particular, region here.

但我们的绿色线所标的7美元水平很突出，因为它曾是阻力位，之后又再次成为支撑位。

But $7, our green line here, stands out because it was old resistance, and then it was support once again.

随后，我们看到它再次成为上方的阻力位。

And then we can see it came back into prominence here as a ceiling.

然后我们迎来了强劲的上涨行情。

Then we had our explosive push to the upside.

价格曾回落至7美元水平，但我们牢牢守住了。

We were treated back to that $7 level and we held firm though.

因此，这是一个显著的潜在支撑测试，并且确实得到了确认。

So this was a notable test of potential support here that did hold on.

现在我们再次回到了白色向上倾斜的趋势线上方，这条线之前只是短暂地被突破。

Now we have reentered above our white, upward sloping trend line there that was just very briefly broken.

因此，这可能是未来值得关注的区域。

So that could be an area to watch going forward now.

这个位置目前大约在9美元左右。

That comes in, maybe around 9 right now.

这里还有一些其他需要关注的高点。

Some other high points to consider here.

我们接下来的一组相对高点大约在11.66美元，另一个则在13.88美元左右。

Our next set of relative highs around $11.66 and another here around $13.88 or so.

这些可能是值得关注的上行目标位。

Those could be some upside levels to watch.

当我们观察这里的移动平均线时，价格一直维持在所有三条移动平均线之上。

When we look at our moving averages here, price has held on above all three of our moving averages.

我们已经上穿了它们，并且目前位于橙色的63日指数移动平均线上，该线大约在9.50美元附近。

We crossed above and we are, on our sixty three day EMA in orange there that comes in, right around the $9.50 level or so.

所以这是一个需要考虑的短期点。

So a short term point to consider.

RSI正在改善，绿色趋势线正在发挥作用。

RSI improving Green trend line in play.

我们位于50中线之上，表明看涨情绪更强。

We are above the 50 midline suggesting a greater bullishness.

最后，当我们观察成交量分布图时，控制点位于下方，而主要交易区域目前都在我们当前位置之下。

Finally, when we look at our volume profile study, point of control all the way down here, the heavy trading areas are are below where we're at right now.

在上方约6美元水平还有一个较大的成交节点。

Another large node here near the $6 level to the upside.

一旦我们突破16美元，交易量会显著减少，这可能是价格开始快速移动的点。

Things really start to thin out once we get above 16, so that could be the point where we start seeing some very fast moving prices.

不过，从我们目前的位置来看，还有相当一段距离。

Still a ways to go though from where we are now.

好的，目前关键金属的交易价格为9.66美元。

Alright, and right now trading at $9.66 for critical metals.

最后一个，这是我们过去一周稍微讨论过的一个有趣话题。

This last one, an interesting one that we've talked about a bit over the last week.

他们发布了财报。

They had their earnings.

我们看到多头和空头对他们的看法有一些拉锯。

We've seen a bit of tug of war between the bulls and the bears about their thoughts.

随后，他们宣布了15亿美元的股票增发，但市场对此反应并不积极。

They then they announced this $1,500,000,000 stock offering that was not met with a a lot of positivity from the street.

我们说的是SoFi。

We're talking about SoFi here.

你知道，为什么这是你的第三选择，阿喀琉斯？

You know, why is this your third pick, Achilles?

是的。

Yeah.

我们认为在金融板块。

We think in the financial sector.

金融板块最近被严重打压。

The financial sector has been beaten down quite a bit.

我们看到了很多短期阻力。

We've seen a lot of near term resistance.

我肯定里克会同意你的看法。

I'm sure Rick will agree with you.

整个板块确实都被严重打压了。

It's just the whole sector as a whole has been beaten down.

我们认为从估值角度来看，这只股票仍然被低估。

We think that in terms of valuation, the stock is still undervalued.

我们预计在未来18个月内，股价将上涨10%到14%，这一预测基于我们过去对该股票的表现观察。

We think that it's going to be heading up 10 to 14% in an eighteen month period, and we based that based on what we've seen in the past with this stock.

如果你只看我们目前所见的情况，整个板块都遭到了打压。

It's been if you just look at what we're seeing here, this has been beaten back the whole sector as a whole.

我们希望确保在金融板块中持有高质量的股票。

We want to make sure that we're owning in the financial sector high quality stocks.

我们认为这是其中之一，但我们也视其为一个扭亏为盈的目标，以在当前时点赚取更多利润。

We believe that this is one of them, but we also see this as a turnaround target to make even more money at this particular point.

到目前为止，这是这些科技公司中的一家。

So far is one of these technology companies.

你知道，可能从20美元涨到40美元，转眼间就翻倍了。

You know, could be $20 And then the next thing you know, it could be 40.

你知道，它属于那种目前还没找到方向的股票。

You know, it's like it's one of those stocks where it hasn't really found its footing right now.

因此，我们看到这只股票未来还有更大的潜力，而且整个板块现在也开始回暖。

So there's a lot more potential in this stock that we see going forward, and the whole sector is starting to turn around right now.

所以这对这一趋势来说是另一个利好。

So that's another boon for this trend.

好的，里克。

Alright, Rick.

当我们审视SoFi和金融科技时，Achilles提到了一些潜在的阻力位，那么从技术面来看，我们在哪里看到这些阻力呢？

So as we take a look at SoFi and fintech and Achilles highlighted potentially some of the areas of resistance, you know, where are we seeing those in terms of on the technicals?

短期阻力位首先可能出现在这里，就在当前价格上方，28.48美元附近。

Well, resistance in the short term could be found first right about here, just above current prices, $28.48.

这是我们在出现向下跳空之前的低点。

That's the low point before we had our gap down.

因此，这是一个需要关注的短期阻力位，看看这个跳空是否会被填补，然后观察后续走势。

So that's one very short term resistance point to consider, see if that gap gets filled and then see what happens.

除此之外，我们下一组相对高点大约在30.42美元附近。

Beyond that, we have our next set of relative highs near about $30.42.

但如果回溯一下，我们之前有一条向上的蓝色趋势线，但最近走势变得有些震荡。

But if we were to backtrack a little bit here, we had our blue trend line sloping upward, and then things have gotten a little bit more, choppy here.

你可以看到我们明显的低点。

You can see our notable low points.

这里有一个，24.84美元是日内低点。

One right here, 2484 was a intraday low.

我们在这里还有另一个低点，23.70美元。

We had another here, $23.70.

从收盘价来看，我们成功维持在该水平之上。

In terms of closing prices, we managed to hang on above that same level.

我们的盘中低点也大致维持在这一水平附近。

Our intraday low held on around that same point as well.

因此，尽管市场有些震荡，但多头仍有一些积极信号。

So, some encouraging signs for the bulls despite a bit of chop here.

请注意，在此之前，我们的高点也呈现出逐步缓慢上行的价格走势。

Notice as well until we we had this point, we also were seeing gradually grinding upward price activity in terms of our highs here.

因此，如果我们能够重新确立看涨趋势线，就可能突破这条白色趋势线，这些阻力位将成为下一个考验。

So now if we do manage to reassert ourselves in terms of a bullish trend line, we could see this white trend line being broken, and we could see these resistance levels become the next tests.

现在我们可以看到这里的移动平均线。

So, now we can see our moving averages here.

我们目前位于黄色的21日均线和橙色的63日均线之间。

We are between our yellow 21 day and orange 63 day.

一些非常短期的界限，比如27.35和28.33，可能是值得关注的点位。

Some very short term boundaries, twenty seven thirty five and twenty eight thirty three, could be some points to watch.

这里的动能正在有所减弱。

Momentum slowing down somewhat here.

目前仍处于下行趋势，并且已跌破了50中线。

Still trending downward here and across below that 50 midline.

然而，你希望看到的是，RSI与价格走势同步出现某种突破。

However, you would what you would wanna see would be, RSI making some kind of breakout in tandem with price activity.

因此，如果我们开始看到动能再次上升，请留意价格和RSI共同突破的情况。

So if we do start to see momentum rise again, look for price and RSI to break out together.

我们的成交量分布显示，大部分交易活动集中在25到29之间的这个较大区间内。

Our volume profile shows much of the trading activity is in this large kind of lump here between about 25 to 29.

因此，如果我们开始突破29，上方就是交易清淡的区域，这可能是你需要留意的快速突破行情。

So if we start getting above 29, that's the thin trading areas that could be the fast moving breakout activity that you might want to be on the lookout for.

如果你开始跌破这个成交量区间，下方又会形成我们的支撑区域，大约在24到25之间。

And if you do start to move below that volume block here, it's our supportive zone once again between about 24 to 25 or so.

是的，这正好就在我们当前交易价格的下方。

Yeah, that's just below where we're trading right now.

SoFi今天下跌近2%，报价在27美元和25美元之间，但今年迄今已上涨76%。

'27, '25 for SoFi down close to 2% today, but year to date trading up 76% higher.

感谢两位今天与我们同在，当然还有来自LaRhea财富管理的Achilles LaRhea，以及我们Schwab网络的图表专家Rick Ducat，一直陪伴着我们。

Wanna thank you both for being with us today, of course, for the big three Achilles LaRhea from LaRhea Wealth Management and Rick Ducat, our chart master here on Schwab Network for always being with us.