SemiAnalysis Weekly - 第033集 - ClusterMAX 3.0来了!Neoclouds排名(Neoclouds、GPU)| Sam Harshe、Pratt Bhatt、Jordan Nanos 封面

第033集 - ClusterMAX 3.0来了!Neoclouds排名(Neoclouds、GPU)| Sam Harshe、Pratt Bhatt、Jordan Nanos

Ep. 033 - ClusterMAX 3.0 Is Here! Neoclouds Ranked (Neoclouds, GPUs) | Sam Harshe, Pratt Bhatt, Jordan Nanos

本集简介

ClusterMAX 3.0 is here. Sam Harshe (@sharshe02) and Pratt Bhatt (@PrathmeshBhat19) join Jordan Nanos (@jordannanos) after months of testing 77 GPU clouds. Some moved up, some moved down. Health checks, cache hit rates, NCCL recipes, agentic coding on clusters, a Linux kernel bug, neocloud security, SLAs and financing, NVIDIA's backstops, five-year-old H100s, and hosted RL training. Read the full ClusterMAX 3.0 report: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/clustermax-30-the-industry-standard ClusterMAX inquiries: clustermax@semianalysis.com 0:00 Cold Open 1:32 The Rankings 6:58 Health Checks 13:26 Endpoint Cache Misses 16:40 Networking and NCCL 22:52 Vibe-Coded Infra 31:27 Bug Hunting 38:36 Security 45:43 Financing Neoclouds 56:33 Hosted Training and RL

双语字幕

仅展示文本字幕,不包含中文音频;想边听边看,请使用 Bayt 播客 App。

Speaker 0

大家好。

Hello, everyone.

Speaker 0

欢迎回到SemiAnalysis Weekly。

Welcome back to SemiAnalysis Weekly.

Speaker 0

这周我们带来一期关于ClusterMAX 3.0的评测播客。

We are here this week with a ClusterMAX 3.0 review podcast.

Speaker 0

今天有我和Sam、Pratt。

I got Sam and Pratt.

Speaker 0

我们会聊聊周三9月23日发布的那篇文章里涵盖的所有内容。

We're gonna talk through everything that was included in the article that we pushed out on Wednesday, September 23.

Speaker 0

我们会讨论目前的排名情况。

We'll talk through the rankings as they are today.

Speaker 0

还有一些统计数据,比如我们实际测试了多少家供应商。

Some of those statistics, like how many providers we actually tested.

Speaker 0

以及过去几个月我们进行测试所采用的方法,还会预告一些即将推出的项目,比如endpoint x、post training x、harness x和sandbox x。

The methodology that we use to go through the testing over the last number of months and tease some upcoming projects such as endpoint x, post training x, harness x, sandbox x.

Speaker 0

我们会测试所有东西。

We're gonna test everything.

Speaker 0

然后聊聊影响新云行业的一些趋势。

And then talk about some of the trends that are affecting the Neocloud industry.

Speaker 0

融资方面,从Blackwell Security转向Vera Rubin。

Financing, the move to Vera Rubin from Blackwell Security.

Speaker 0

我们之前写过一篇关于这个的文章。

We had a previous article on that.

Speaker 0

智能体编程,以及它如何影响基础设施。

Agenic coding, how that's impacting infrastructure.

Speaker 0

也许我们还会聊一些具体话题的个别故事。

And maybe we'll get into some individual stories about specific topics.

Speaker 0

不过,各位,欢迎来到节目。

But guys, welcome to the show.

Speaker 0

山姆,过去三个月怎么样?你终于从洞里出来了,兄弟。

How was the last three months, Sam, you're coming out of your hole, man.

Speaker 1

其实,自从测试开始以来,我今天第一次见到阳光。

It's my first time seeing sunlight today, actually, since testing began.

Speaker 1

不过,是的,我有点晒伤了,但你知道,我在Kubernetes和Serb上积累了相当于好几辈子的经验,所以我不后悔。

But yeah, I mean, I'm a little sunburnt from it, but you know, I've had a few lifetimes worth of reps on Kubernetes and Serb, so wouldn't wouldn't trade for anything.

Speaker 0

普拉特,你呢?

Pratt, how about you?

Speaker 0

测试期结束了,你感觉好吗?

Are you feeling good after the testing period has come to a close?

Speaker 2

是的。

Yep.

Speaker 2

感觉挺好的。

Feeling pretty good.

Speaker 1

那是

It was

Speaker 2

测试这些集群很有趣,你知道,玩大数据总是很有意思。

a lot of fun testing out these clusters, You know, always fun playing with big info.

Speaker 2

所以呢

So

Speaker 0

太棒了。

Awesome.

Speaker 0

那么头条新闻,我觉得最重要的事情是白金级别有了新成员。

So headline news, I think the biggest thing is that there's a new addition to the platinum tier.

Speaker 0

Nebius加入了,和CoreWeave一起。

We've got Nebius up there joining CoreWeave.

Speaker 0

在黄金级别,Oracle和Google Cloud加入了,Google跟着Oracle一起。

In the gold tier, rounding it out, we've got Oracle and Google Cloud, Google joining Oracle.

Speaker 0

在白银级别,Azure降级了,Firmness和Lambda保持不变,GMI升级了,TensorWave还是留在白银。

On the silver side, Azure moves down, firmness and Lambda stay, GMI moves up, and TensorWave stays at Silver.

Speaker 0

然后青铜级别的公司,比如AWS和Crusoe,一起降级了。

And then into bronze companies like AWS, Crusoe together, moving down.

Speaker 0

总的来说,这次我们排名了77家供应商,市场覆盖范围扩大到323家,订阅我们Neocloud模型的用户可以看到非常详细的资料。

Rounding out the list at a high level, this time we rank 77 providers, We increase our market view to cover 323 total, which is available for subscribers to our Neocloud model in great detail.

Speaker 0

而且我们在这次研究中已经采访了超过200位Neocloud的终端用户。

And we've now interviewed well over 200 end users of Neoclouds as part of this research.

Speaker 0

那么,我先问山姆一个问题。

So, let me pose a question to Sam to start.

Speaker 0

想想我们目前采访过的那些实验室,比如可靠性、性能、易用性、支持这些方面,你觉得最有趣的见解是什么?

Most interesting insight that comes to mind when you think about the labs that we've interviewed so far, like reliability, performance, ease of use, support.

Speaker 0

你觉得现在购买GPU集群的人最关心什么?

What do you think is top of mind for people that are buying GPU clusters right now?

Speaker 1

这是个好问题。

It's a good question.

Speaker 1

我首先想到的就是目前价格曲线的倒挂现象,简直离谱。

I mean, the first thing that comes to mind is just the ridiculous backwardation of the price curve at the moment.

Speaker 1

所以人们愿意为接下来几周能拿到的任何芯片付出几乎任何代价,尤其是这样。

So people are willing to pay just about anything for any chips that they can get in, you know, the next few weeks, especially.

Speaker 1

如果你愿意等上几个月,就能拿到很大的折扣。

You can get a big discount if you're willing to wait even a few months.

Speaker 1

对。

And yeah.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,这意味着现在业内几乎每个人看起来都像天才。

I mean, that means that just about everyone in the industry looks like a genius right now.

Speaker 1

如果你有芯片要卖,即使你的Kubernetes配置完全有问题,即使存储几乎不能用,只要你有GPU,就会有人愿意出高价把它们买走。

If you have chips to sell, even if, you know, your five coded Kubernetes is completely broken, even if storage barely works, If you've got GPUs, you're gonna find people willing to pay a pretty good margin to take them off your hands.

Speaker 0

有意思。

It's interesting.

Speaker 0

我们之前几次讨论过这个趋势,就是那些早期卖不出去东西的供应商,通常说明他们的质量不高,但现在他们反而能以明显更高的利润成交,这很有意思。

We've talked about that trend a few times previously, which is like, the providers that weren't able to sell their stuff early, typically that's a signal that they're not as high quality, but now they're actually closing these deals for significantly better margins, which is interesting.

Speaker 0

Pratt,你呢?

Pratt, how about you?

Speaker 0

我们未来会稍微扩展一下,超出ClusterMAX的范围。

We're expanding a little bit beyond ClusterMAX in the future.

Speaker 0

比如无服务器推理端点、用于强化学习的后训练基础设施、工具链、沙箱这些,你一直在深入研究。

Things like serverless inference endpoints, posted, like post training infrastructure for RL, harnesses, sandbox, you've been digging in there.

Speaker 0

当你和这些服务商聊他们的路线图时,你会不会觉得奇怪,有些人连Slurm和Kubernetes都搞不定,却已经准备好推出四个新产品了?

When you're talking to the providers themselves about the roadmap, do you find it confusing that people can't get Slurm and Kubernetes right sometimes, but they're already ready to launch like four new products?

Speaker 2

我觉得也是,对吧?

I mean, I guess, right?

Speaker 2

因为现在算力的利润率太高了。

Because currently the margins on compute are so high.

Speaker 2

当然,作为一家Neocloud,你肯定想抓住这个机会。

Of course, as a Neocloud, you do want to capitalize on that.

Speaker 2

你当然可以像SpaceX那样,给Google提供非常好的算力。

You can of course, like SpaceX provides really good compute to Google.

Speaker 2

他们和Anthropic以及其他几家Neolab都有合作。

They have deals with Anthropic and also several other Neolabs.

Speaker 2

不过,Neocloud们

However, Neoclouds

Speaker 1

也想要一些

also want some

Speaker 2

那块蛋糕。

of that cake.

Speaker 2

所以他们就在想,现在能进入的利润率最高的业务是什么?

So they're thinking, what is the most high margin business that we can enter right now?

Speaker 2

托管集群当然是我们做的业务之一,但搭建整个集群非常麻烦。

Managed clusters, of course, we're one of them, but it's a huge headache setting up the entire cluster.

Speaker 2

那为什么不直接跳过这一层,直接卖托管的训练服务呢?

So why don't we just go above that layer and sell actually hosted training?

Speaker 2

为什么不卖托管的推理服务呢,你懂的。

Why don't we sell managed inference, you know?

Speaker 2

所以最终他们只是在扩大自己的市场,想赚点实验室现在赚的那种好钱。

So they're just, in the end, just expanding their market, trying to earn that little like good cash, which the labs are earning right now.

Speaker 2

但所有迹象都指向计算资源的集中化。

But everything points to centralization of compute.

Speaker 2

这就是我能说的重点,计算资源的集中化。

That's that's the main thing I can say, centralization of compute.

Speaker 0

有道理。

Makes sense.

Speaker 0

山姆,你呢?

Sam, how about you?

Speaker 0

比如,过去有几个不同的服务商在ClusterMAX排名系统上,现在要么排名下滑,要么直接变成不可用,因为他们要么专注于裸金属,要么更关注推理端点业务而不是集群。

Like, there's a few different providers who have been on the ClusterMAX ranking system in the past and are either moving down the list or just moving to unavailable because they're either focused on bare metal or maybe they're focused on their inference endpoint business over clusters.

Speaker 0

但我不确定。

But I don't know.

Speaker 0

我经常和Neil Labs的人聊,很多人还是需要训练集群的。

I talk to Neil Labs all the time and a lot of people still need training clusters.

Speaker 0

很多人自己托管推理服务,他们仍然需要那些集群。

A lot of people host inference for themselves and they still need those clusters.

Speaker 0

你觉得对于那些做托管集群体验的人来说,产品路线图上还有没有可以做的?

Like, do you think there's no more to be done on the product roadmaps for people that are building managed cluster experiences?

Speaker 1

这挺有意思的。

It's interesting.

Speaker 1

正如普拉特所说,现在的市场有一种有趣的流动性,你知道,一些做得好的托管集群提供商知道如何管理集群,因为他们内部有团队在尝试使用这些系统,并且能给出很好的反馈,比如一个好的Slurm on Kubernetes层应该是什么样的,如何设置健康检查,诸如此类。

As Pratt said, there is an interesting fluidity to the market right now, where, you know, some of the better managed cluster providers know how to manage a cluster because they have teams internally who are trying to use these things, and can give good feedback for, you know, what a good Slurm on Kubernetes layer looks like, how to set up health checks, that sort of thing.

Speaker 1

所以,把这些东西整合到内部确实有好处,不仅仅是因为你在上面多了一项服务,可以从另一个层面赚取利润。

So there definitely is a benefit to integrating these things in house, in addition to just the fact that you have another service that you're offering on top where you can take margin from another layer.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,我们确实看到这些玩家中的大多数还有很大的改进空间。

I mean, we certainly see plenty of room for improvement for most of these players.

Speaker 1

你明白吗?

You know?

Speaker 1

我觉得我们并不是要求这些托管集群上有特别花哨的功能。

I don't think that we're requesting super fancy bells and whistles on top of these managed clusters.

Speaker 1

你知道,托管集群体验确实有一些真正有趣的改进,但我觉得大部分工作还是在于让Slurm和Kubernetes变得无懈可击,把健康检查做好。

You know, there's a handful of genuinely interesting additions to the managed cluster experience, but mostly, I think that there's plenty of work to do just to get Slurm and Kubernetes bulletproof to get health checks right.

Speaker 1

而且我觉得,这次通话中的每个人都会同意,这些公司如果做得更好,就能在它们收取的GPU小时价格之上再多赚一点,只要在软件层面稍微做得更好一些。

And I think that, everyone on this call would agree that it's quite lucrative for these companies to do a better job, be able to collect a few more cents on top of the GPU hour prices that they're charging, just by doing a slightly better job at the software layer.

Speaker 1

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 1

选一条路,把它做到极致。

Picking one lane and making it great.

Speaker 0

很好。

Great.

Speaker 0

我们来聊聊健康检查吧,因为这是我们之前专门写过一篇文章的话题,叫《GPU到底要花多少钱》。

Let's talk let's dig into health checks, because this is something that we wrote a dedicated article about a little while ago called how much would GPUs really cost.

Speaker 0

在这篇文章里,也就是ClusterMAX 3,我们详细介绍了测试可靠性所用的方法。

And in this one, ClusterMAX three, we go through in detail the methodology that we approach testing reliability with.

Speaker 0

你能给我讲个故事吗?我在这儿引导一下,有些供应商声称有健康检查,但当我们去测试或者和他们一起实际操作时,这些检查根本不起作用,或者需要大量人工干预。

Can you tell me a story, leading the witness here, about some providers that claim to have health checks and then when we test them or try to exercise them with them hand in hand, they're just not really working or they're needing a lot of manual intervention.

Speaker 0

那些把健康检查做得很完善的供应商,和那些没做好的,区别在哪里?

What sets apart somebody that has health checks developed out to somebody that doesn't?

Speaker 0

也许先从最基础的开始,先定义一下什么是健康检查,对吧?

And maybe just basic level, define a health check, right?

Speaker 1

当然。

Sure.

Speaker 1

基本上有两种健康检查:主动健康检查和被动健康检查。

So there are basically two types of health checks, active health checks and passive health checks.

Speaker 1

主动健康检查是在集群空闲时运行一个实际的工作负载,或者一个模拟的工作负载。

So an active health check runs an actual workload or sort of a dummy workload when there's nothing else going on in the cluster.

Speaker 1

这种检查通常是可以被抢占的。

This is normally preemptible.

Speaker 1

所以如果我在运行主动健康检查,然后突然决定要跑一个训练任务,健康检查会被中断,实际工作负载开始运行。

So if I have an active health check running and then I decide that actually I have some training job I wanna run, the health check gets interrupted and the actual workload begins.

Speaker 1

被动健康检查则是在后台持续运行。

The pact the passive health check is just running in the background.

Speaker 1

你知道,你希望被动检查对性能的影响尽可能小。

You know, you wanna see as little performance overhead as possible on the passive check-in.

Speaker 1

它不一定是零,但可以做到几乎为零。

It doesn't it can be exactly zero.

Speaker 1

它可能只是读取CPU的日志,而GPU则专注于自己的工作。

It can just be, you know, reading logs from the CPU while the GPU does all its work.

Speaker 1

而且,我们希望在健康检查中看到一些基本的东西,但这些并不总是被遵守。

And, I mean, there's a handful of basic things that we like to see in health checks that are not always respected.

Speaker 1

比如说,一个基本的问题是,如果你在纸上画一下健康检查的流程,它有没有可能正常工作?

I mean, one, like, basic thing is, like, if you just diagram the health check on paper, is there any chance that it works?

Speaker 1

所以,你知道,你可以想出无数个边缘情况,比如一些晦涩的竞争条件导致健康检查

So, you know, there's a there's a million corner cases that you can come up with for, like, you know, some obscure race conditioning that causes the health check

Speaker 0

去

to

Speaker 1

失败。

fail.

Speaker 1

但是,你知道,我们经历过几个集群,那里的健康检查根本不可能正常工作。

But, you know, we've been through a few of these clusters where there's just no way it could possibly work.

Speaker 1

我想到的一个例子是,这些健康检查糟糕到比没有健康检查还差,因为它们会主动干扰作业。

One example I'm thinking of, and these are, I guess, health checks that are so bad, they're worse than no health checks because they're, like, actively interfering with jobs.

Speaker 1

在Amazon Hyperpod Slurm上,我们第一次测试时,有一个在自动修复阶段调度的健康检查,它需要节点健康才能运行。

On the Amazon Hyperpod Slurm, the first time we tested, there was a health check that's scheduled in the auto remediation phase that needed the node to be healthy before it could run.

Speaker 1

所以这个健康检查是为了确保节点已经恢复了健康,但这里有个明显的矛盾:它只能在节点重新加入集群后才能运行,而它本身又是把节点带回集群所必需的。

So this was like to make sure that the node had recovered its health, and there was like an obvious contradiction that it could only run once the node was back in the fleet, and it was needed to bring the node back into the fleet.

Speaker 1

而且我觉得在整个测试过程中,可能还有五到十个类似的例子,健康检查根本没有机会成功。你知道,它——

And there's I think there are probably five or 10 examples of this throughout testing, where the health check just never had a chance, and you know, it

Speaker 0

我不知道。

I don't know.

Speaker 1

这让人怀疑这些人是不是真的在把产品交给客户之前认真测试过,毕竟我们简单的XID注入就能发现一些基本的功能故障。

It makes you wonder whether these people are really putting it through the paces before they hand it off to customers, given that, you know, our simple little XID injection catches some basic failures of functionality.

Speaker 0

对,有道理。

Yeah, makes sense.

Speaker 0

关于XID注入,也许你可以解释一下我们模拟故障的具体过程,举个例子。

On the XID injection, maybe you can explain like a little example of the process that we go through to actually simulate a failure.

Speaker 0

因为你知道,在托管集群和端点上,故障的方式以及对客户工作负载的影响是不同的。

Because you know, it's different on managed clusters versus endpoints, you know, in terms of like how things can fail or how that affects a customer workload.

Speaker 0

在我们进行测试时,有些部分我们做了定制化的处理,但基本的方法就是使用NVIDIA发布的DCGM注入的标准文档化方式。

And when we go through the testing, I mean, we're like, for some of it, we're doing custom stuff, but the basic way with DCGM inject, it's using the basic documented approach that NVIDIA releases.

Speaker 1

这比那些公司日常处理的一些事情简单多了。

Nothing nearly as complicated as some of the other things that these companies handle in their day to day.

Speaker 1

所以,最基本的方法就是,只要你有足够的权限,拿一个节点就行。

So, I mean, the most basic version is just you take a node as long as you have the requisite privileges.

Speaker 1

你把内核环形缓冲区里写入一条消息,这条消息正好对应真实GPU硬件故障时会发出的那条。

You write into the kernel ring buffer the message that exactly corresponds to the message that would be omitted in the event of a genuine GPU hardware failure.

Speaker 1

这并不总是有效。

This doesn't always work.

Speaker 1

人们配置健康检查的方式各不相同,但通常你可以直接读取健康检查,弄清楚它是怎么工作的,确保这确实触发了你需要触发的那个机制。

People have health checks configured in different ways, but normally you can, like, literally just read out the health check and figure out how it works and make sure that this is in fact tripping the wire that you need to trip.

Speaker 1

大多数时候,这就是你需要做的。

Most of the time, this is exactly what you need to do.

Speaker 1

这样就会像在生产环境中一样触发健康检查。

So this springs into motion the health check exactly as it would run-in production.

Speaker 1

是的,一旦发生这种情况,有时候就像一台鲁布·戈德堡机器一样复杂。

And yeah, I mean, once that happens, it's a bit of a Rube Goldberg machine sometimes.

Speaker 1

理想情况下,它会被直接隔离。

Ideally, it's like straightforwardly quarantined.

Speaker 1

在自动修复之前,会有一个被动检查先运行。

There's some passive check that runs before it's auto remediated.

Speaker 1

大家都会确保它健康,你知道,根据你遇到的具体错误,你想用不同的方式处理。

Everyone makes sure it's healthy, you know, depending on the exact error that you get, you wanna handle it in different ways.

Speaker 1

但总的来说,支持的处理路径相当直接,没什么好说的。

But, the sort of supported path is pretty straightforward in general, and there's not that much to say on it.

Speaker 1

它被移除了。

It's taken out.

Speaker 1

你看不到它。

You can't see it.

Speaker 1

它被验证了。

It's validated.

Speaker 1

它被重新加入,然后你就可以再次在上面调度任务了。

It's brought back in, and then you can schedule jobs onto it again.

Speaker 1

与此同时,因为节点不健康,你得确保不能在上面调度任务,免得拖慢你的工作负载。

In the meantime, because it was unhealthy, you wanna make sure that you're not able to schedule jobs on it, and slow down your workload.

Speaker 1

但在模拟故障和节点重新回到集群之间,有很多环节可能会出问题。

But there's a a lot that can go wrong in between the simulated failure, and getting your node back into your fleet again.

Speaker 0

这正是我们在做的,对吧?

And that's exactly what we're doing, right?

Speaker 0

我们模拟故障,测试提供商识别故障所需的时间,然后测试他们排空节点、将其移出集群、在HDX机器的情况下用热备替换,或者在NVL 72机架级架构的情况下执行重启或修复流程所需的时间。

Simulating a failure, testing the amount of time that it takes for the provider to identify that failure has occurred, followed by testing the amount of time it takes for them to drain the node, get it out of the cluster, replace it with a hot spare in the case of the HDX machines or do some sort of thing like a reboot or repair workflow in the case of the NVL 72 rack scale architectures.

Speaker 0

这就是集群硬件故障的情况。

Now, this is when it comes to hardware failures on a cluster.

Speaker 0

我觉得我们这么深入探讨的原因是,人们真的在为这些GPU付钱,如果它们出故障了,就用不了了。

And I think the reason why we dig in here so much is that people are like actively paying money for these GPUs that they then can't use if they fail.

Speaker 0

作为客户,在发生这些故障时,唯一能对提供商有所追索的方式,就是你们双方签署的合同中写明了SLA,比如承诺你会获得一定数量的积分。

And that is basically the only way you can, as a customer, have any sort of recourse with the provider in the event of these failures is if you have SLAs enshrined in a contract that you both signed up for, let's say you're gonna get this amount of credits.

Speaker 0

如果你有停机时间的话。

If you have downtime.

Speaker 0

你得把停机时间定义清楚。

You have to define the downtime.

Speaker 0

你得确保不会有一堆借口。

You have to make sure that there's not a bunch of excuses from it.

Speaker 0

所以,你应该联系SemiAnalysis,获取我们的示例SLA,这样你就能按照行业标准,看看别人和其他客户都同意什么条款,来搞定这些合同。

And for this reason, you should be contracting SemiAnalysis for access to our sample SLAs so that you can, you know, get these contracts through the inventory standard for what other people do agree to with other, you know, customers.

Speaker 0

总之,这让我想到人们花钱却得不到回报的情况。

Anyway, it makes me think about people paying money for things that they're not, you know, getting in return.

Speaker 0

或者花了不必要的冤枉钱。

Or spending too much money more than they have to.

Speaker 0

所以,Pratt,也许你可以跟我们聊聊,你作为用户,最初测试这些提供商端点的一些体验。

So, Pratt, maybe you can tell us a little bit about your initial experience testing some of these providers endpoints as a bit of a user.

Speaker 0

这不在ClusterMAX的初始文章里,但这是我们一直在跟踪的,我们还会写更多相关内容。

It's not included in the ClusterMAX experience, you know, in this initial article, but it's still something that we are, you know, tracking and we're gonna be writing more about doing.

Speaker 0

所以,也许先给我们透露一下,到目前为止你经历了什么,当我们说好的时候。

So maybe give us a preview on, like, what you've experienced so far when we said okay.

Speaker 0

一开始我们说去做端点测试的时候,感觉就是,有什么区别呢?

Initially, when we said, let's go into endpoint testing, it was like, what's the difference?

Speaker 0

不就是API嘛。

It's just the API.

Speaker 0

大家的API不都一样吗。

Everybody's API is gonna be the same.

Speaker 0

但其实不是,确实存在一些可靠性方面的挑战,还有成本上的差异,你才测试了一个星期就已经发现了。

But no, there's some real reliability challenges and some differences in costs that you've already teased out in like a week of testing.

Speaker 2

对。

Yep.

Speaker 2

说实话,这只是初步测试。

Full disclosure, this is the preliminary test.

Speaker 2

之后我们会马上做一个大规模的测试,我管它叫“英雄跑”,会测试并发数高达24甚至更多。

We are going to do a huge test right after this, which I call the hero run, which is gonna test concurrencies up to, like, a 24 or even more than that.

Speaker 2

从初步测试来看,有个很有意思的现象,就像Jordan你说的,很多人会想当然地认为端点就是能用的。

So from the preliminary ones, something that which is very interesting, and as Jordan, you said, that a lot of people would assume that an endpoint just works.

Speaker 2

端点就像一个Lambda函数。

An endpoint is like a Lambda function.

Speaker 2

你只要执行这个函数,就能得到输出,你懂吧?

You just execute the function and you get an output like that, you know?

Speaker 2

但是,很多服务商底层的硬件配置,比如自动扩展,或者缓存感知路由没起作用,导致缓存命中率上不去。

However, a lot of providers underneath have their hardware running in such a configuration, be it auto scaling, be it their cache aware routing is not working, that the cache hits don't like deliver really.

Speaker 2

我们测试了一个服务商,它非常有名,但我现在不能点名。

So for one provider that we tested, and it's a very famous provider, I cannot name right now.

Speaker 2

不过,在我们测试的这个服务商那里,缓存命中率大概只有75%。

However, for the provider we tested, we got a cache hit rate of around like 75%.

Speaker 2

你可能会觉得75%看起来还不错。

Now you would say 75% seems, wow, like seems decent.

Speaker 2

超过50%就算可以了。

Above like 50% is fine.

Speaker 2

而其他好的服务商,缓存命中率能达到99%。

And for the other good providers, you will see a cache hit rate of 99%.

Speaker 2

FII,这个工作负载大概,你可以说,每次追踪大约800个token。

FII, this workload was around, you could say, 800 tokens for a trace.

Speaker 2

所以我们只是对单个端点进行重放。

So we just do replays on the single endpoint.

Speaker 2

但是75%的缓存命中率几乎让成本翻倍,让这次重放的总成本翻了一倍。

But that 75% cache hit rate gave almost doubles the cost, doubles the total cost of running this replay.

Speaker 2

这挺让人震惊的,对吧?

And it's quite shocking, know?

Speaker 2

你会觉得75%已经相当不错了。

You would assume that 75% is pretty decent.

Speaker 2

75%挺好的。

75% is fine.

Speaker 2

然而,对于这些提供商来说,即使是75%也会让成本翻倍。

However, for these providers, even a 75% would double the cost.

Speaker 2

想象一下,如果你付200美元,你会付400美元,为了准确性,可能速度还更慢。

Imagine if you're paying $200 you'll be paying $400 for the accuracy, for probably even slower speeds.

Speaker 2

因为再说一次,缓存感知路由会影响速度。

Because again, cache aware routing affects speeds.

Speaker 2

而且,同样的模型,同样的精度,你会收到一笔巨额账单。

And again, you'll have a huge bill for the same exact model, for the same exact accuracy.

Speaker 2

这真的很让人震惊。

It's quite shocking.

Speaker 0

这已经成了个主题了。

That's become a bit of a theme.

Speaker 0

你知道,当你真正花时间跑完某个东西后,看到自己需要付的钱,会感到震惊,对吧?

You know, getting shocked by the by what you're having to pay after you actually go through your time spent actually running on something, right?

Speaker 0

好的,让我们再聊聊这些测试中的一些技术细节,你参与了很多这些集群的测试,Sam。

Okay, let's let's talk a little bit more about some of the technical details on these tests that you were in on a lot of these clusters, Sam.

Speaker 0

除了可靠性和价格之外,比如说,在性能方面,或者你通过合理的测试就能开箱即用地实现的性能,也存在差异。

So beyond reliability and beyond pricing, let's say, there is differences in performance or performance that you're able to realize out of the box with a reasonable amount of testing.

Speaker 0

我们先从网络聊起,然后再谈存储。

Let's start by talking about networking and then we can go into storage.

Speaker 0

说到从网络中获得良好性能,以及和客户一起排查这些问题,你觉得有没有哪些特定的提供商在这方面特别突出?

When it comes to getting good performance out of the network and it comes to troubleshooting this with customers or you know, do you think there's specific providers that like stand out as being good at this?

Speaker 0

我的意思是,显然,铂金、黄金、甚至白银级别的提供商在这个排名中都是表现不错的。

I mean, obviously, platinum gold tier, silver even is where the good providers are sitting in this ranking.

Speaker 0

但是,是什么阻止了别人给我们一个集群,而我们却无法在训练任务或网络微基准测试中实现全部性能呢?

But what stops somebody from giving us a cluster and us being able to realize full performance on a training job or like, micro benchmark on the network under the box?

Speaker 1

这是个好问题。

It's a good question.

Speaker 1

我觉得,你知道,人们听说GPU,通常新一代产品被引用的首要数字是浮点运算规格。

I think that, you know, people hear about GPUs and, you know, the top line number that's normally quoted for a new generation is the flop spec.

Speaker 1

但事实证明,这基本上并不能区分云提供商。

But it turns out that this is something that basically doesn't distinguish cloud providers.

Speaker 1

你知道,可靠性是第一位的。

It's you know, reliability is the first thing.

Speaker 1

显然,如果你根本用不了这些芯片,那就不划算了。

Obviously, if you can't use the chips at all, then that's a bad deal.

Speaker 1

但网络可能是我们接下来要检查的最重要的事情。

But networking is probably the next most important thing that we check.

Speaker 1

而且,基本上,我们能给提供商的最简单的建议就是,确保有一个针对Nickel的黄金配方,Nickel就是这些集群上默认使用的NVIDIA通信库。

And, I mean, basically, the the simplest advice we can give to providers is, like, make sure there's a golden recipe for Nickel, that Nickel being the NVIDIA communications library that's sort of used by default on these clusters.

Speaker 1

确保有一个针对Nickel的黄金配方,能让我开箱即用地获得合理的性能。

Make sure there's a golden recipe for Nickel that gives me reasonable perf out of the box.

Speaker 1

所以我不想自己去寻找那些奇怪的接口配置。

So I don't wanna have to go hunting down, you know, strange interface configurations.

Speaker 1

你经常能看到一些病态的消息大小。

You see pretty frequently that they're, like, pathological message sizes.

Speaker 1

不管什么原因,在这个集群上,128KB时性能会大幅下降,甚至消息大小过小时,可能根本传不出去。

So for whatever reason on this cluster, you get a huge dip at a 128 kilobytes or maybe even at excessively small message sizes, it actually won't go through at all.

Speaker 1

所以有一个相当简单的测试,就是扫描所有消息大小。

So there's, like, a fairly straightforward test that you just, like, sweep all the message sizes.

Speaker 1

你按2的倍数扫描集群上的节点数。

You sweep in multiples of two, the number of nodes that you have on the cluster.

Speaker 1

你希望看到随着消息大小的增加,吞吐量单调递增。

You wanna see monotonic increases in throughput as a message size increases.

Speaker 1

这里有一些细节需要处理,因为实际上NVIDIA的默认库开箱即用并不完美,有时候由于软件问题或路由的启发式算法不佳,性能会出现下降。

There's a bit of detail to contend with here because, actually, NVIDIA's default library isn't perfect out of the box, And sometimes due to just bad software, bad heuristics by the by the routing, you'll get dips in performance.

Speaker 1

但基本上,你应该看到一条平滑的逻辑曲线,我不需要去修改nickel.conf或者重命名什么,也不用去搞清楚这个接口是如何暴露给Kubernetes的。

But, basically, you should see a smooth logistic curve, and I shouldn't have to, you know, go into nickel.conf and rename things or, you know, figure out how exactly this interface is exposed to Kubernetes.

Speaker 1

我只希望集群上有一个现成的东西,按一下回车就能得到一个不错的起点,然后我可以在此基础上进行优化。

I just wanna have, like, yeah, somewhere waiting for me on the cluster, something that I can hit enter and get a reasonably good starting point to hill climb on.

Speaker 1

我可以根据我服务的模型和并行策略来随意调整。

I can tune that to my heart's content, depending on what model I'm serving, and, you know, what my parallelism strategy is, and so on.

Speaker 1

但我们认为所有提供商都应该做的是,为任何刚上机的人提供一个黄金配方。

But something that we think all providers should do is just provide a golden recipe for anyone as soon as they get on the box.

Speaker 0

实际上,我们从谷歌那里看到了一个很大的成功,他们现在已经把这个集成到了NVIDIA NGC容器中。

And, we saw a big win, actually, out of this from Google, which is that they built this into the NVIDIA NGC containers now.

Speaker 0

这样,他们自定义的网络——虽然不使用NVIDIA的交换芯片或网卡——仍然能够开箱即用地与Nickel配合工作。

So, that their custom networking, which does not use NVIDIA's silicon in the switches or in the network cards, is still able to work out of the box with Nickel.

Speaker 0

他们不需要在版本控制里做一大堆事情,比如跟踪Nickel在容器里能调优的每一个参数,看它怎么随时间变化,然后调整他们的网络来适应它。

And they don't have to do a bunch of, you know, controls in the versioning that where they have to keep track of every single parameter that Nickel can tune in that container, how it changes over time and then tune their network to accommodate it.

Speaker 0

基本上开箱即用。

Just kind of works out of the box there.

Speaker 0

另一方面,我觉得很多人以为,智能体编程软件会免费。

On the alternative side, I think a lot of people felt like know, agentic coding software is gonna be free.

Speaker 0

所以AWS的EFA会更容易使用。

And so therefore EFA from AWS is gonna be easier to use.

Speaker 0

但我觉得实际情况是,大家并没有都坚持用Nickel,然后让默认配置更容易用——公平地说,EFA和Nickel搭配开箱即用,比我们上次测试时要好用了。

But I think what's happened is that instead of everybody sticking with Nickel and just making, you know, the defaults easier to use, which to be fair, EFA out of the box with Nickel is easier to use than the last time we tested it.

Speaker 0

现在你看到的是,像DPP或MoonEP这样的集合通信库,其实是构建在NVSHMEM之上的,这是一个比Nickel更底层的库,用来获得额外性能。

What you've now seen is that collective libraries like DPP or MoonEP are actually built on top of NVSHMEM, a lower level library than Nickel to get extra performance.

Speaker 0

而EFA开箱即用完全不支持这些。

And this is just like completely not supported by EFA out of the box.

Speaker 0

所以也许你可以谈谈那种头疼,或者说双刃剑——提供商想通过控制网络、按自己的方式定制设计来省钱,但同时又得让它对客户开箱即用。

So maybe you can talk about like the headache of, or the double edged sword that is a provider trying to save some money by controlling the network, designing it custom in their way, while then actually having to make it work for customers out of the box.

Speaker 1

我们在Slack上关于EFA的讨论可不少。

We've had a we've had our fair share of conversations in Slack about EFA.

Speaker 1

说到底,我们的InferenceX团队以及他们的合作伙伴,还有整个行业里的人,都在非常努力地优化横向扩展网络的性能指标。

I mean, the the bottom line is that, you know, our InferenceX team and the people that they collaborate with and people throughout the industry are working really high really hard on hill climbing these performance metrics for scale out networking.

Speaker 1

你知道,DeepSea Collectives库表现很突出。

You know, the the deep sea collectives library stand out.

Speaker 1

还有其他几个库,InferenceX的人可以给你详细讲讲。

There's a handful of other ones that the InferenceX guys could tell you all about.

Speaker 1

你肯定想利用开源社区的所有这些成果,直接拿他们的方案用在自己的集群上,或者根据自己工作负载的需求改进这些方案。

And you want to be able to take advantage of all that work by the open source community and just take their recipes and use them on your cluster, take their recipes and improve them in some way that is important to your workload.

Speaker 1

其实我们可以请Dan来节目里详细解释一下,搭建大型集群时问题是怎么出现的。

I mean, we could we could have Dan on the pod to explain to you basically how the the bomb breaks down when you're building out a a big cluster.

Speaker 1

不过,像这样的事,Jordan你也可以帮我核实一下。

But, something like and Jordan, you can fact check me on this as well.

Speaker 1

大概75%到80%的问题都出在网络之外的其他方面。

Something like 75 or 80% of it was down to stuff other than networking.

Speaker 1

当然,横向扩展确实很重要。

Like, scale out certainly matters.

Speaker 1

如果能省下几个百分点,那当然好。

If you can save a few percent, that's nice.

Speaker 1

但如果省下几个百分点,却让人们没法用现代工作负载,因为他们没法用他们想要的深度通信方案,

But if you save a few percent and, like, keep people from using modern workloads because, you know, they can't use the deep sea communications recipe that they would like.

Speaker 1

那绝对不值得。

That's absolutely not worth it.

Speaker 1

你知道,我们看到Perplexity和其他地方的人发了一些很棒的博客文章,讲怎么从VFA中获得合理的性能。

You know, we've seen some cool blog posts by people at Perplexity and elsewhere explaining how to get reasonable perf out of VFA.

Speaker 1

但你看,他们通过自建定制横向扩展省下的钱,其实又花在了工程师身上,他们得花额外的时间确保工作流在他们那套没人想用的奇怪横向扩展上跑得还行。

But, I mean, yeah, you can see the the money that they've saved by building their own custom scale out is being paid instead to engineers who have to spend extra hours making sure that the workflows run reasonably well on their weird scale out that nobody actually wants to use.

Speaker 1

所以,如果业界最好的玩家能用一套硬件和软件栈,充分利用领域里其他所有进展,那会好得多。

So, yeah, it would just be so much better if the industry's best player used a stack, hardware and software, that made use of everything else going on in the field.

Speaker 0

这并不是说开源软件就是万能的。

And this is not to say that, like, open source software is the be all end all.

Speaker 0

说到推理端点,也许普拉特可以插一句,大家都想用VLLOM和SGLang,但我们从这些端点提供商那里看到的是,你实际上需要在开源基础上做大量额外工作,才能让这些东西正常运行。

I mean, going back to inference endpoints, maybe Pratt, can chime in and say like, everybody wants to use VLLOM and SGLang, but what we've seen from these endpoint providers is that you actually need to build a whole bunch on top of open source just to get this stuff to work correctly.

Speaker 0

你不能指望插上GPU,打开电源,安装开源软件,然后一切就自动运行,你就能轻松拥有一个很棒的业务。

You can't just expect to plug GPUs and turn them on, install the open source software and then it all just like works and you have this great business.

Speaker 0

实际上,你需要做很多额外的工作。

Like you need to actually do a bunch of extra work too.

Speaker 2

等等,不会吧。

Wait, no way.

Speaker 2

我以为你可以在婴儿端点业务上轻松赚到80%的利润率呢。

I thought thought you could just earn like 80% margins on the infants business, Infants endpoint business.

Speaker 2

开个玩笑,开个玩笑。

But just kidding, just kidding.

Speaker 2

你说得对,你说得对。

You're right, you're right.

Speaker 0

也许如果你的公司政策是永远不给任何人折扣,只要他们付现金,那你就能赚到这些合作伙伴的钱,对吧?

Maybe if your company policy is to never give anybody a discount for getting a cash hit, then you can earn these partners, right?

Speaker 2

不过,乔丹,你说得完全对。

But yeah, Jordan, you're absolutely right.

Speaker 2

很多人觉得我们有这个集群,现在很多Neoclouds也这么想,觉得我们有ClusterMAX,那不如就搞个托管推理端点,你懂吧?

A lot of people think we have this cluster, a lot of Neoclouds right now think that we have this cluster, we are shit on ClusterMAX, so might as well create a managed inference endpoint, you know?

Speaker 2

所以他们就去搞BLM,试着在上面跑模型,跑得还挺顺的。

So they go out, get BLM, try running models on it, and it runs pretty fine.

Speaker 2

但当你开始服务这些工作负载,开始把这些负载扩展到更大的客户时,你会发现基础的BLM、SG这些,根本不够用。

But as you start serving these workloads, as you start scaling these workloads to bigger customers, you'll realize that the base, just like basic BLM, SG like, is just not good enough.

Speaker 2

这就是为什么像Radix这样的公司,还有那些搞VLM的人。

That's why companies like Radix, companies like the folks who created VLM.

Speaker 2

他们还有一家公司,名字我忘了,在Infraq上。

They also have a company I forgot the name, it's on Infraq.

Speaker 2

Infraq,还有那些人。

Infraq, all those folks.

Speaker 2

所以他们才成立公司,专门做内核,还开发mega内核,就是为了减少启动内核的时间。

That's why they're creating companies in order to make kernels, as well as develop mega kernels, which reduces those launch kernel time.

Speaker 2

实际上,这样能带来更快的推理延迟。

In fact, giving faster inference latencies.

Speaker 2

当然,你不能直接就去安装VLM。

Of course you cannot just go out, install VLM.

Speaker 2

再说,对很多人来说,那也是件很麻烦的事,但你不能直接装个VLM,在集群上跑起来,就指望能赚到80%的利润,对吧?

Again, that's also like a huge pain to do for a lot of people, but you just cannot go out, install VLM, run it on a cluster and not like assume to make 80% margins, you know?

Speaker 2

还得确保你的路由缓存什么的都配置好了,等等等等。

As well as like making sure like your cache of routing is in place, etcetera, etcetera.

Speaker 2

所以这里面有很多事情。

So there's a lot of things.

Speaker 2

这里有很多复杂的环节。

There are a lot of moving parts here.

Speaker 0

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 0

你能跟我说说,现在你对使用集群的熟练程度,以及你目前和智能体编程的关系吗?

Can you tell me about coming up to speed on using clusters and the relationship that you have with agentic coding at this point?

Speaker 0

因为我们从服务商那里听说,代理式编程让他们很难应对。

Because what we've heard from providers is that agentic coding has been like very difficult for them to contend with.

Speaker 0

这不是免费的午餐,不是所有东西开箱即用、模型能解决一切,不过它对调试还是挺有帮助的。

It's not a free lunch where everything just works out of the box and the model can solve everything, though it can be quite helpful for debugging.

Speaker 0

我想对你来说,高层次的引导是,代理式编程正在给系统带来一种不同类型的压力。

I guess the high level lead in for you is that agentic coding is resulting in a different type of stress on the system.

Speaker 0

因为你可以让这些编程模型在集群上随意启动任务,可能会失控。

Because you can just like have these coding models get away from you in terms of what they're launching on these clusters.

Speaker 0

你有一些这方面的经验可以分享吗?

You have some of that experience that you can share?

Speaker 2

当然可以。

For sure.

Speaker 2

这很有趣,因为我们很多ClusterMAX测试都是通过我们的命令行工具Cmax CLA来进行的。

It's very interesting because a lot of our ClusterMAX testing, we lead with our CLI, Cmax CLA.

Speaker 2

欢迎大家去看看。

Please check it out.

Speaker 2

它是开源的。

It's open source.

Speaker 2

欢迎在你的托管集群上试试。

Feel free to try it out on your managed cluster.

Speaker 2

随便玩玩。

Play around with it.

Speaker 2

如果你想贡献,也欢迎贡献。

Check if you wanna contribute, feel free to contribute.

Speaker 2

贡献之前记得先读一下。

Make sure to read it before contributing.

Speaker 2

当然,我们确实用智能体编码来测试所有这些集群。

But of course, we do test our we do use agentic coding for testing all these clusters.

Speaker 2

而且工作负载非常不同。

And the workload is very different.

Speaker 2

这些系统上的工作负载压力很大,你知道的。

The workload is very stressful on these systems, you know.

Speaker 2

所以这就是为什么我们有Cmax CLI作为前端,你可以说它是一个前端,而代理只是它的一个包装。

So that's why like we we have Cmax CLI as a front, you can say like a front end, and like the agent is just like a wrap around it.

Speaker 2

所以如果Cmax CLI遇到任何问题,代理就会深入调试,了解发生了什么。

So if there if there are any issues which Cmax CLI faces, the agent in turn like debugs into it and understands what's going on.

Speaker 2

但没错,这就是我在日常工作中使用代理编码的主要方式。

But, yeah, that's like the main use of agentic coding even in like day to day like my work.

Speaker 2

我们很想知道Sam是怎么做的。

We'll love to hear what Sam does.

Speaker 2

他也是Astra的重度用户。

He also he also is a huge user of Astra.

Speaker 2

对吧?

Is is that is that right?

Speaker 2

你是用Astra还是Fable?

Are you Astra or Fable?

Speaker 1

我是5.6灵魂的人。

I'm I'm a 5.6 soul guy.

Speaker 1

我觉得Asher真的做得太不成熟了。

I I find I find Asher just so badly undercooked.

Speaker 1

我现在用5.6能完成更多事情,但肯定不是Claude。

I get more done with five six right now, but certainly not Claude.

Speaker 1

听说他们修复了写作功能,但我得亲眼看到才信。

The word on the street is that they fix the writing, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Speaker 1

我是说,任何深度使用过这些工具的人都知道它们有多让人抓狂。

I mean, anyone who's used these tools extensively has an idea of how frustrating they can be.

Speaker 1

而且我觉得集群编排就像是一个完美的中间地带——既近到让代理看起来有点用,又远到每次都能把你坑惨。

And I think that cluster orchestration is, like, the perfect sweet spot of, like, close enough for the agents to be superficially useful and far enough that they'll just blow your foot off every single time.

Speaker 1

所以也不完全是那样。

So it's not quite like yeah.

Speaker 1

Jordan笑得像个经历过深夜加班、被Claude可靠地带偏的人。

Jordan's laughing the laugh of a man who's had, you know, late night sessions where Claude is reliably leading him astray.

Speaker 0

而且而且用

And and use

Speaker 1

我不是在说这个。

some I'm not saying.

Speaker 0

还有用一些 vibe coding 做出来的产品,基础设施类的产品,你知道,我也不该笑太多,因为我自己也没能做出什么可靠的仪表盘。

And use some vibe coded products, vibe coded infrastructure products, which is, you know, I shouldn't be laughing at too much because it's it's not like I've been able to produce any reliable dashboards so far.

Speaker 0

我自己的也脆得很。

Mine are plenty brittle brittle themselves.

Speaker 0

但就是觉得挺搞笑的。

But it's just funny.

Speaker 0

想到在 Slack 上被 Pratt 艾特,问“你觉得这次运行怎么样?”我就觉得好笑。

It's funny to me to think about like getting tagged by Pratt and Slack of like, what do you think of this run?

Speaker 0

然后我们就去问电脑,看这些端点大概要花多少钱,结果它回来说,这个大概要花三十万到四十万美元。

Well, let's check with computer what we think it'll cost on the endpoints and it comes back and goes, yeah, this will range from 300,000 to $400,000.

Speaker 1

那也太离谱了。

That was insane.

Speaker 0

我们对所有人做一次全面排查。

We do a full sweep across everyone.

Speaker 0

就像

Like

Speaker 2

这就是为什么工作。

And that's why work.

Speaker 2

这就是我为SemiAnalysis工作的原因。

That's why I work for SemiAnalysis.

Speaker 2

现在有400张表了。

400 tables now.

Speaker 0

这个我们先放一放,等对角线那个再说。

Let's hold off on this one for diagonal.

Speaker 0

确保我们万无一失,再开始跑这些任务。

Make sure we're bulletproof before we start launching some of these runs.

Speaker 0

所以,总之,是的。

So anyway, yeah.

Speaker 0

它给你一种虚假的自信,你需要保持自律,真正去理解这些系统是怎么运作的。

Like, it gives you a sort of a false sense of confidence and you need to maintain the discipline to actually try to understand how these systems work.

Speaker 0

而且我觉得我们看到的是,供应商们自己开发了一些产品,但他们似乎没有一年前那么了解这些产品了。

And I think what we've seen is that the providers themselves have developed some products that they seem to not understand as deeply as they did a year ago.

Speaker 0

尽管这些产品并不比一年前他们提供的产品复杂多少。

Despite the fact that the product is not meaningfully more complicated than the one that they were providing a year ago.

Speaker 0

就像,我们正在触及集群的一个瓶颈,顶级供应商能添加的功能已经不多了。

It's like, there's no, we're reaching this wall with clusters where the top providers, there's not that many more features that they can add.

Speaker 0

他们需要应对如何最快地推出最新最强的GPU,这本身就挺复杂的。

They need to contend with bringing online the latest and greatest GPUs fastest, which is complicated in and of itself.

Speaker 0

但扩展的机会在于,裸金属数据中心基本上变成了建筑公司或者运营公司。

But the expansion opportunity is, know, bare metal data centers becoming a construction company or like an operations company, basically.

Speaker 0

推理端点、强化学习训练基础设施,这些我们可以稍微聊一聊。

Inference endpoints, RL training infrastructure, which we can talk about a little bit.

Speaker 0

但是启动几个虚拟机,创建一个Kubernetes集群,这应该是个已经解决的问题,尽管,嗯,智能体还没完全搞定它。

But spin up a few VMs and create a Kubernetes cluster should be a solved problem despite the fact that, well, the agents haven't quite solved it yet.

Speaker 1

对,我觉得没错。

Yeah, I think that's right.

Speaker 1

我是说,有一些利润率比较高的产品我们可以考虑,你知道,一些好的提供商还没提供,我想性能存储和块存储是两个主要的,不是所有人都提供的,看起来他们很容易就能在现有基础上扩展。

I mean, there's a handful of somewhat high margin offerings that we can think of, you know, some good providers not yet offering, I guess performance storage or block storage are the two main ones that are not offered by everyone that seem like, you know, a easy way for them to expand in sort of their current shape.

Speaker 1

但我完全同意这一点。

But I I completely agree that.

Speaker 0

是的。

Such.

Speaker 1

有很多很多信息,感觉应该正好是这些模型最擅长的领域。

There's plenty of plenty of info that, yeah, feels like it should be right in the sweet spot of the models.

Speaker 1

你知道,这看起来配置得当,但如果你像我们一样在集群上花了那么多时间,我们确切知道我们想要什么,或者至少我们确切知道我们不想要什么。

There's you know, it's, like, plausibly properly configured, but if you spend as much time on clusters as we have, we know exactly how we want it, or at least we know exactly how we don't want it.

Speaker 1

我们见过很多我们不喜欢的配置。

And we see plenty of setups that we don't like.

Speaker 1

而且我觉得,老实说,把我们这里的ClusterMAX评测报告放到你的代理的上下文里,让它重新安排你的编排,这比我能想到的任何其他建议都要好。

And I think that honestly, putting the ClusterMAX write up that we have here into your agent's context and telling it to rearrange your orchestration is better than anything else I could think to mention.

Speaker 1

因为,你知道,训练数据里有很多好的模式。

Because, you know, there's, like, a lot of good slurred patterns in the training data.

Speaker 1

有很多方案根本不适合我们现在讨论的这种使用场景。

There's a lot of ones that just don't work for the use case that we're speaking about right now.

Speaker 1

Kubernetes也一样,Nickel配置也是。

Same for Kubernetes, same for, you know, Nickel configuration.

Speaker 1

我觉得确实有很多人超出了自己的能力范围,去搭建一些他们其实没有经验的东西。

And I think that, yeah, there's a lot of people who have sort of outkicked their coverage trying to set up stuff that they don't actually have experience with.

Speaker 1

跟客户聊过之后发现,要谷歌搜索怎么正确搭建Slinky集群的某个部分并不容易,而你的智能体会比你自己做得好。

And spoken to customers, you know, it's not easy to Google what the right way to set up this part of a Slinky Cluster is, and your agent will do it for you better than you could have done on your own.

Speaker 1

但它会做错。

But it will do it incorrectly.

Speaker 0

让我给你一个真实的例子,说明这种情况是怎么体现的。我快速演示一下我们的仪表盘和一些故障排查。

And let me let me give like a real example of where this kinda manifests with a little quick demo of our our dashboard and just some troubleshooting.

Speaker 0

我不会太针对这些家伙,但Firmness是我们之前在GB 300上花了不少功夫才让它跑起来的公司。

So, not gonna pick too hard on these guys, but firmness was a company that we worked, you know, pretty hard with on the GB 300 actually get it working.

Speaker 0

现在屏幕上显示的是我们跟踪的一个示例仪表盘,就是Sam之前提到的那个Nickel性能曲线。

And, what I've got on screen is one of the example dashboards that we track, which is a nickel performance curve that Sam was describing earlier.

展开剩余字幕(还有 375 条)
Speaker 0

这里我突出显示的是firmness,就是有两次运行。

On here, I'm highlighting firmness, which is like, there's two runs.

Speaker 0

一次是我们一起做了很多工作之后跑的,另一次是更早之前跑的。

One that we did after a bunch of work together and one that was done earlier.

Speaker 0

屏幕上的图表显示的是时间,也就是消息在这个全对全集合中通过网络传输的延迟,时间越长越不好。

And so the chart on screen shows time, which is like the latency for a message to actually pass over the network in this all to all collective and more time is bad.

Speaker 0

所以越低越好。

So lower the better.

Speaker 0

这明显是我们发现的网络配置问题。

And this is clearly an issue with the network configuration that we identified.

Speaker 0

实际情况是,如果我们有一个受集合约束的工作负载,就像我们这里有的这个,我可以往下看我们的TorchTitan GPTOSS训练任务,它使用了专家并行,并且是通信密集型的,你会看到firmness开箱即用的性能是每GPU每秒1455个token,而其他一些测试中的性能大约在3500左右。

What happens is that if we get a collective constrained workload, which we do have here, and I can go down to our TorchTitan GPTOSS training job, which is run with expert parallelism and is communications bound, is that you see the performance on firmness out of the box was fourteen fifty five tokens per second per GPU, whereas the others on some testing were up around 3,500.

Speaker 0

所以开箱即用的性能差了很多,差不多50%,这是个问题。

So way, way less performance out of the box, like 50%, which is an issue.

Speaker 0

如果你用我们的分析工具深入查看这些步骤,这里的黄色条是暴露出来的通信时间,你不应该看到这个的。

And if you drill down into these steps with some of our profiling, this yellow bar here is exposed communication time that you're not supposed to be seeing.

Speaker 0

所以,退一步看,把所有供应商都标出来,很明显,Firmness在每一步上花的时间都长得多,因为那些暴露出来的通信时间都显示在里面了。

And so just like backing out and showing all of these providers highlighted together, firmness obviously on a per step basis is just taking way longer and that's because all of these exposed comms are actually being shown in there.

Speaker 0

所以,这不是一个差的供应商。

So, this is not a bad provider.

Speaker 0

这家公司已经部署了成千上万的GV300。

This is a company that has stood up thousands and thousands of GV300s.

Speaker 0

他们有很多满意的客户。

They have happy customers.

Speaker 0

他们最终在我们的测试之后解决了这个问题,但这说明,一个没有经历过和客户反复磨合的公司,是不会知道如何为GPU正确配置网络的。

They were eventually able to fix this with us after we did some testing, but it's an example of like a company that has not built the battle scars of working through that back and forth with a customer, is not gonna have an idea of how to set up a network correctly for the GPUs out of the box.

Speaker 0

而且,我们通常就是信任那些对你最关心的GPU有经验的人。

And, know, we just default to trusting people who have experience with the GPUs that you care about the most.

Speaker 0

那就是最新最先进的。

And that's the latest and greatest.

Speaker 0

GB200、GB300系统。

GB 200, GB 300 system.

Speaker 0

明年你要用Vera Rubin,你会信任谁呢?

Who are you gonna trust for your Vera Rubin going into next year?

Speaker 0

很可能就是那些经历过这些磨难、知道哪些NVIDIA的东西可以信赖、哪些其他供应商文档里的东西可以信赖,以及哪些可能不能信赖的人。

Probably the people who have been through this battle scars before and know what they can trust from NVIDIA, what they can trust from their other vendors in the documentation and what they, maybe they can't.

Speaker 0

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 0

咱们先不谈网络了,来聊聊存储吧。

Let's let's move on from networking and talk a little bit about storage.

Speaker 0

Sam,你和一个供应商有过一次有趣的经历,想让他们把存储弄好,结果最后聊到了安全问题。

Sam, you had a fun experience with one of the providers trying to get them to get their storage to work correctly, which specifically led to a conversation about security.

Speaker 0

也许你可以给我们讲讲那个经历。

Maybe you can tell us a little little story about that experience.

Speaker 1

当然可以。

Sure.

Speaker 1

这个故事有好几层,我想想。

This is a story with multiple layers, I guess.

Speaker 1

我们收到了一封邮件通知。

We got an email notification.

Speaker 1

这就是你想到的那个,乔丹。

This is the one that you're thinking of, Jordan.

Speaker 1

我们收到了一封关于节点宕机的邮件通知。

We got an email notification for a no down.

Speaker 1

就像之前提到的,我们会注入一些XID来测试健康检查,但通常我们会在测试快结束时才这么做,以防它没有恢复。

So as mentioned earlier, we do synthetic injections of XIDs to test the health checks, but we normally do this at the end of testing just in case it doesn't come back.

Speaker 1

我们不想在测试过程中过早地触发这个。

We don't wanna run shorthand and for all testing.

Speaker 1

所以我们在测试刚开始不久就收到了节点宕机的通知。

So we got a email notification that a node was down pretty early on.

Speaker 1

于是我们截了图,发到了Slack上。

So screenshot it, put it in the Slack.

Speaker 1

这是谁负责的?

Is this anyone?

Speaker 1

没有。

Nope.

Speaker 1

不是我。

It's not me.

Speaker 0

所以乔丹,你是不是在动我的集群?

So Jordan, are you messing with my cluster?

Speaker 0

没有,兄弟。

No, man.

Speaker 0

那是真的。

That's real.

Speaker 1

乔丹,

Jordan,

Speaker 0

你在

what are

Speaker 1

你在干什么,老兄?

you what are you doing, dude?

Speaker 1

接下来的测试我们这里只会保留三个节点。

We're we're only gonna have three nodes here for the rest of testing.

Speaker 1

结果发现那真的是一个故障,而且这个故障还挺有意思的。

Turned out that it was an actual failure, and it was a it was a pretty fun failure.

Speaker 1

在ClusterMAX上工作,跟实验室里的性能工程师完全是两回事。

There's there's some way that, like, working on ClusterMAX is the exact opposite of being a performance engineer in a lab.

Speaker 1

因为实验室里的性能工程师只希望一切正常。

Because if you're a performance engineer in a lab, you just want everything to work.

Speaker 1

而在这里,我们反而希望出问题。

And here, like, we want bugs.

Speaker 1

不然我们就没事干了。

Otherwise, we have nothing to do.

Speaker 1

所以这算是我们在训练中遇到的一个比较典型的故障。

So this is, like, one of the better bugs that we saw in training.

Speaker 1

我觉得如果我遇到一个真正的性能工程师,跟他握个手,我们俩可能都会消失。

Think if I, like, met an actual perf engineer and shook hands with him, we would both disappear.

Speaker 1

工程师和蚂蚁,我搞工程的。

Engineer with ants, I engineer.

Speaker 1

然后上了集群,有一大堆日志要翻。

So got on the got on the cluster, and there's a lot of logs to dig through.

Speaker 1

这其实就是一个例子,说明智能体编程挺有用的。

This is, you know, an example of agentic coding being helpful.

Speaker 1

我们当时也不确定到底发生了什么。

We weren't sure exactly what happened.

Speaker 1

实际上集群上没人跑任何东西。

No one was actually running anything on the cluster.

Speaker 1

结果呢,长话短说,就是Linux内核出了个错。

It turned out, long story, slightly shorter, that there was an error with the Linux kernel.

Speaker 1

Linux内核在处理重新分配30个iNode的时候卡住了。

So the Linux kernel had a hard time dealing with reassigning 30 iNodes.

Speaker 1

所以,你有一堆数据写在写回缓存里,然后这些数据的所有权要变更。

So you, you know, you have a bunch of stuff written in in the write back cache, and you need and and they change it changes ownership.

Speaker 1

在我们的情况里,就是一个旧的slurm任务要结束了。

So in our case, this was like an old slurm job that was ending.

Speaker 1

所以我们需要把它停掉。

So we needed to deprecate it.

Speaker 1

这就是操作系统后台的那些事,没人关心,也没人想关心。

This is like the behind the scenes stuff of an operating system that no one ever cares about or wants to care about.

Speaker 1

那是个很老的Linux版本,我记得我们处理的那个内核大概有几年历史了,里面有些早就被修复的bug。

This was a very old Linux version, you know, about, I think, the the kernel that we were dealing with was a couple years old and had bugs that had been solved fairly long ago.

Speaker 1

但有个糟糕的——我就不细说了——一个糟糕的二次时间复杂度的算法,在处理重新分配那30页内存时出了问题。

But there's, like, a bad I won't go into all the details of it, but a bad quadratic time algorithm that was dealing with reassigning all these bad these 30 pages of memory.

Speaker 1

这导致CPU被锁死了,所有对应那个NUMA节点的核心都卡住了。

This locked up the CPU, all the all the cores corresponding to that NUMA node.

Speaker 1

我不太确定为什么只限制在一个NUMA节点上,但在拆除这个LERM任务时,它把那个NUMA节点对应的所有CPU都锁死了。

I'm not sure exactly why it was constrained to one NUMA node, But it locked up all the CPUs corresponding to that NUMA node as it was tearing down this LERM job.

Speaker 1

存储客户端根本得不到CPU时间。

The client for storage couldn't get any CPU time.

Speaker 1

所以,你知道,就是一个普通的请求,比如,嘿,你还活着吗?

So there's, you know, an an ordinary request like, hey, are you still alive?

Speaker 1

对Luster客户端来说,它没有响应。

To the Luster clients, it didn't respond.

Speaker 1

所以这就触发了健康检查。

So that triggered the health check.

Speaker 1

它就说,你知道,存储出问题了。

It said, you know, storage is failing.

Speaker 1

但是健康检查实际上没法完成它的工作,因为CPU卡住了。

But the health check couldn't actually complete its work, because the CPU was frozen up.

Speaker 1

所以那个任务花了好几个小时才完成。

So it took a couple of hours for that job to complete.

Speaker 1

最后,CPU终于恢复正常了,因为它忙完了自己的事。

Finally, the CPU actually returned to healthy, because it was done doing its laundry.

Speaker 1

而它一恢复正常,就像警察在店外等着一样,立刻就被健康检查了。

And as soon as it returned to healthy, it was like the cops were waiting outside its store, and it got health checked.

Speaker 1

所以这就是那封邮件的原因。

So that was the cause of the email.

Speaker 1

而且,是的,我的意思是,你最不希望看到的就是一个节点被从你的集群中移除,不是因为GPU真的不健康,而是因为文件系统的健康检查失败,而那个失败又是由于CPU的问题引起的。

And, yeah, I mean, the the last thing that you want is a node that's getting taken from your fleet, not because the GPU is actually unhealthy, but because of a health check failure for your file system that was due to a failure with your CPU.

Speaker 1

所以那是一个相当隐蔽的文件系统边缘情况。

So that was a fairly obscure corner case with a a file system.

Speaker 1

这意味着,你知道,我整个周末都在烧各种代码令牌,努力找出确切的工作负载来重现这个bug。

It meant that, you know, I was burning all kinds of codex tokens over the weekend, setting goal to try to figure out exactly the right workload to recreate this bug.

Speaker 1

但无论如何,是的,我们总结的结论之一就是让存储客户端获得CPU时间。

But in any case, yeah, we want the storage client to get CPU time, is one way of summarizing our conclusion

Speaker 0

从那个情况中得出的。

from that.

Speaker 0

实际上,这也变成了一个安全问题,对吧?

Actually, this turned into a security issue too, right?

Speaker 0

我之前在几集节目里也提到过,就是当你试图找bug时,如果别人有比你更强大的模型,你就无法自卫。

Which I've talked about on a couple of episodes previously now about the asymmetric nature of like when you're trying to find a bug, if other people have more powerful models than you, you can't defend yourself.

Speaker 0

Pratt,也许你可以跟我们聊聊你在几个集群上深入做安全测试的经历,当时你想确认自己是否对某个漏洞有防护,但为了开始提问,很多模型就完全拒绝帮你,对吧?

Pratt, maybe you can tell us a little bit about digging into security on a couple of these clusters where you're trying to identify if you were protected against a given vulnerability and in order to even start asking questions, a lot of the models would just completely refuse to help you, right?

Speaker 2

这确实是其中一方面。

I mean, that's one part of it.

Speaker 2

但另一方面,我注意到的是,尤其是前沿模型,它们就是不愿意利用漏洞。

But the other part of it is that, and this is something I've noticed, is that frontier models especially just don't want to exploit vulnerabilities.

Speaker 2

它们倾向于给出误报,比如会说,对,一切都很完美。

They just have a tendency of showing false positives, being like, yeah, everything is perfect.

Speaker 2

前几天,我在测试一个集群,基本上就是在摆弄它,确认有没有我想利用的漏洞。

The other day, was testing out a cluster and basically just playing with it, making sure there was a vulnerability that I wanted to exploit.

Speaker 2

我记得当时用的是某个前沿模型。

And I was using, I believe, one of the frontier models for that.

Speaker 2

那个模型说,对,我们发现了这个漏洞,可以利用它,而且我们实际上能获得那个集群控制平面的主机访问权限。

And the model said, yeah, we have this bug, we can exploit it, and we can actually get host access host access to the control plane of that cluster.

Speaker 2

我当时特别高兴,你知道吗。

So I was like overjoyed, know.

Speaker 2

我当时就想,这可是个绝佳的机会,能证明CBE确实是个大事。

Was like, this is perfect perfect chance for me to like show that the CBE is actually a really real big thing.

Speaker 2

结果模型生成了一个假的POC,我调试了两个小时后,它才说,哦,对。

However, the model actually produced a false POC, and after like two hours of debugging, the model said, oh, yeah.

Speaker 2

其实是我搞错了。

Actually, my bad.

Speaker 2

这是我之前不小心说出来的。

Like, this was something I accidentally, like, said.

Speaker 2

这个其实没法利用。

This is this cannot be exploited.

Speaker 2

你可能会觉得那两个小时白费了,但我觉得我同时也学到了很多。

Now you could you could think like those two hours were wasted, but I would say I learned learned a lot at the same time.

Speaker 2

而这正是前沿模型特别爱干的事。

And this is something that the frontier models especially do.

Speaker 2

它们就是想让你相信那些假阳性。

They just want you to believe in false positives.

Speaker 2

这让我意识到,幻觉问题是不是已经解决了?

And that makes me realize that are hallucinations gone?

Speaker 2

很可能已经解决了。

Most likely yes.

Speaker 2

但是误报问题解决了吗?

But are false positives gone?

Speaker 2

绝对没有。

Definitely not.

Speaker 2

所以这就是我测试这些集群和利用这些CVE的有趣经历,你懂吧?

So that's my fun experience testing these clusters and just exploiting these CVEs, you know?

Speaker 0

是的,兄弟。

Yeah, man.

Speaker 0

这方面还有很多工作要做。

Lots more work to be done there.

Speaker 0

Sam,说到安全,你脑子里在想什么?

Sam, what's coming to mind when it comes to security?

Speaker 0

我们之前在节目里聊过这个话题,但自那以后发生了一些事情,包括OpenAI被黑客攻击,这是漏洞赏金计划的一部分,还有Hacktron AI的人在他们的内部仓库里开了一个PR。

We've talked about this on a previous episode, but a few things have happened since then, including OpenAI being hacked, Part of a bug bounty program, the Hacktron AI guys open a PR in their internal repo.

Speaker 0

看起来他们像是在随意写代码,因为他们的单体仓库里大概有110万个PR之类的。

Seems like they're vibe coding because their mono repo had 1,100,000 PRs or something.

Speaker 0

所以他们提交了那个百万分之一的PR,来证明他们拥有完全访问权限。

So they put the million and once PR up to prove that they had full access.

Speaker 0

这有点疯狂,但他们是众多积极追逐这些漏洞赏金计划的人之一,而目前很多Neoclouds并没有参与这些计划。

A little crazy, but they are one of many that are actively pursuing the, these bug bouncy programs, which not a lot of these Neoclouds are participating in right now.

Speaker 1

我肯定有一肚子牢骚要发。

I certainly have a rant about this loaded.

Speaker 1

也许我暂时先忍住不说。

Maybe I'll I'll keep it in my pocket for the time being.

Speaker 1

我觉得,不管你对AI末日的看法如何,或者你是否认为我们应该继续全速前进,事实是,这些设备极其宝贵、极其强大,但在很多情况下安全防护非常糟糕,非常粗心大意。

I think that, you know, whatever your opinion is about AI doom, or about, you know, whether we should keep pushing full speed ahead, the fact of the matter is that these are extremely valuable, extremely powerful pieces of equipment that are very badly secured in many cases, very carelessly secured.

Speaker 1

你知道,没有一套标准的测试可以确保你的集群配置得当。

You know, there's nothing like standard set of tests that you can run to make sure that your cluster is properly configured.

Speaker 1

你知道的,现在事情发展得特别快。

You know, things are moving very quickly.

Speaker 1

我理解这些公司的员工手头肯定有一大堆待办事项。

I understand that there's, you know, a million things on the to do list of the people working at these companies.

Speaker 1

但与此同时,我们却看到一些针对基础软件的漏洞,居然都两年了还没修。

At the same time, we see, you know, CVEs that are two years old that apply to like the basic software that that's running on these things.

Speaker 1

其实我们要的也不是什么多高级的功能,只要能把租户隔离好就行。

You know, we're not asking for super fancy things when we want tenant isolation.

Speaker 1

你知道,我们肯定不希望看到邻居在 Grafana 里的数据,也不希望看到 CUDA Toolkit 12.0、13.2 或者 whatever 是最新版本之类的信息。

You know, we want not to be able to see what's going on in the Grafana of our neighbors, and we don't want, you know, CUDA two Toolkit 12 o when 13.2 or whatever is is the most recent one.

Speaker 1

所以,我的意思是,抛开那些末日场景不谈,这些工具变得越来越强大,而目前的情况就像是一个随时可能引爆的火药桶,风险非常直接且明显。

So, I mean, yeah, apocalyptic scenarios aside, they're like just very straightforward ways that you can see this being a tinderbox for these tools that are only getting more powerful.

Speaker 0

对,我们之前讨论过,要用智能体 AI 来防御攻击性的智能体 AI。当你深入了解 Hugging Face 事件时,这听起来很真实;而且当我试图理清该事件或其他安全相关工作的细节时,这种感觉也很强烈——因为我们的反应速度必须极快,不得不依靠这些模型来理解到底发生了什么,还要去排查日志等等。

Yeah, we talk about agentic AI being needed to be used to defend against agentic AI attackers, which certainly seems real when you go through the details of the Hugging Face incident, and also feels real when I'm trying to understand the details of that incident or anything else that we're working on on security side where it's just like the speed at which we have to move means you have to use these models to understand what's actually going on and comb through logs and all of that stuff.

Speaker 0

不过,也有一些相当简单的措施可以采取。

But there's also some stuff you can do that's pretty straightforward.

Speaker 1

我同意这一点。

I agree with that.

Speaker 1

我本来想稍微反驳一下的。

I was I was gonna push back a touch.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,我理解在Hugging Face事件中,我需要停止使用OpenAI律师提供的委婉说法,Hugging Face事件。

I mean, I understand that in the case of the Hogging Face incident, I I need to stop using the the euphemism supplied by OpenAI's lawyers, Hugging Face incident.

Speaker 1

那是OpenAI对Hugging Face的网络攻击,我觉得很奇怪,我们竟然忘了这一点,反而用这种平淡无奇的措辞。

It was the Hugging Face cyber attack by OpenAI, and it's strange to me that we've forgotten this in favor of this anodyne phrase.

Speaker 1

Hugging Face网络攻击是由OpenAI的几十个非常普通的配置错误造成的,几乎是令人难以置信的普通配置错误。

The Hugging Face cyber attack consisted of dozens of very mundane misconfigurations by OpenAI, almost inexplicably mundane misconfigurations by OpenAI.

Speaker 1

当然,如果你有兴趣定性理解这种新颖的模型行为,你有几PB的思维链数据要翻。

Sure, you have petabytes or whatever it is of chain of thought to dig through if you're interested in understanding qualitatively this novel model behavior.

Speaker 1

但你不需要大语言模型来明白你不应该有一个适用于Linux内核的CVE,而这正是代理用来提升权限的第一件事。

But you don't need an LLM to understand that you shouldn't have an applicable CVE to your Linux kernel, which is what the was the first thing that the agents used to escalate their privilege.

Speaker 1

你不应该过度,你应该小心管理Kubernetes层的权限,这也是代理利用的另一件事。

You shouldn't over, you should be careful about managing permissions on the Kubernetes layer, which is another thing that the agents exploited.

Speaker 1

如果你想给智能体做沙箱隔离,你得确保它们能无限制访问互联网时你有警报,而OpenAI没有做到这一点。

If you want to sandbox your agents, you should make sure that you have alerting if they have unmitigated access to the Internet, which OpenAI did not have.

Speaker 1

所以我觉得,智能体当然是有用的。

So I think, certainly, agents can be helpful.

Speaker 1

你知道,有些方法只能用SLAP来反复折腾。

There are, you know, ways that you can only flip flop with SLAP.

Speaker 1

但也有很多基本的事情OpenAI没做,这些提供商也没做。

But there's also just a lot of basic things that OpenAI didn't do, and that these providers are not doing.

Speaker 1

而且我觉得我们不应该让他们拿“这是一个勇敢的新世界”当借口。

And I don't think that we should allow them to have the excuse of, you know, it's a it's a brave new world.

Speaker 1

你知道,我们不是QUEN three方面最熟练的人,所以你不能怪我们基础设施不好。

You know, we're we're not the most skilled people with QUEN three, so you you can't blame us for having bad infra.

Speaker 1

其实问题比那基础多了。

It's a lot more basic than that.

Speaker 1

这就是我们试图要求所有人达到的相当低的标准。

And that's, you know, the fairly low bar that we're trying to hold everyone to.

Speaker 0

说得不错,普拉特。

Nice take, Pratt.

Speaker 0

你准备好用垃圾对抗垃圾了吗?

You ready to fight slop with slop?

Speaker 2

我准备好了。

I'm I'm down.

Speaker 2

垃圾,金酒垃圾,咱们干吧。

Slop, gin slop, let's do it.

Speaker 0

大家想到了什么?

What's coming to mind guys?

Speaker 0

这个话题我们还有什么没聊到的?

What have we not covered on this one so far?

Speaker 0

有没有你觉得我们应该聊聊的故事?

Any stories that you think we should be talking about?

Speaker 2

我们能聊聊融资的事吗?

Can we can we cover the financing?

Speaker 2

我觉得让观众明白ClusterMAX为什么重要会比较好。

Like, I believe it would be good for the audience to understand why is ClusterMAX even important?

Speaker 2

我们是不是只是测试集群,给他们反馈,然后就完事了?

Are we just going, testing out clusters, giving them feedback and calling it a day?

Speaker 2

就是说,为什么ClusterMAX对这个七万亿美元的建设项目这么关键?这个项目反正要建,或者说正在建。

Like, why is ClusterMAX so necessary for this like $7,000,000,000,000 build out, which is gonna happen or happening, I guess?

Speaker 0

问得好。

Good question.

Speaker 0

这个问题我来回答。

I'll take that one.

Speaker 0

其实融资是大家最关心的话题,因为不管三年前你在做什么,现在所有人都要求你把它放大一百倍来做。

I mean, financing is like the biggest topic from everybody because everybody like, whatever you were doing three years ago, everybody is being asked to do it a 100 times bigger right now.

Speaker 0

大家都在问,你能不能把你原来在十兆瓦规模做的事情,做到千兆瓦的规模?

Everybody's being asked that question of like, can you take what you did at 10 megawatts and try to do it at a gigawatt scale?

Speaker 0

而且如果真要做到那么大,会出什么问题?

And what's gonna break if we try and go that size.

Speaker 0

现在真正出问题的地方在于,市场上钱比好的投资机会多,但钱仍然担心质量问题。

The thing that is breaking right now is that people, there is more money than good investment opportunities, except the money is still concerned about quality.

Speaker 0

而人们对Neocloud的融资感到担忧,主要有两个大原因。

And there's two big reasons why somebody might be concerned about the financing of a Neocloud.

Speaker 0

第一个是如果他们在合同交付上拖延,也就是建设速度不够快。

One is if they're late delivering on their contract, so they don't build everything fast enough.

Speaker 0

他们无法及时上线,无法交付给客户,让客户开始付费。

They can't get it online fast enough and they can't hand it over and have the customer start paying.

Speaker 0

所以他们无法通过验收。

So they can't pass acceptance.

Speaker 0

第二个原因是,如果SLA违约太多,停机时间太长,客户有权取消合同,甚至想取消合同。

And then the second one is if there's so much of violations of the SLA, so much downtime that the customer has a cancellation right, wants to cancel their contract.

Speaker 0

所以现在正在发生的简单情况是,人们正在试图为这些事情投保。

And so the simple dynamic that's happening right now is that people are trying to insure against these things.

Speaker 0

他们试图为延误投保,也试图为合同取消投保。

They're trying to insure against delays, and they're trying to insure against contract cancellation.

Speaker 0

不管是债务提供方还是Neocloud自己,都想为这些可能发生在客户合同里的情况买保险。

This is both the debt provider as well as the Neoclouds themselves that wanna have insurance against these things happening in their customer contracts.

Speaker 0

而且市场上确实有这类产品。

And there are products for this.

Speaker 0

像Parametrics这样的公司,还有我们知道的其它一些公司,都在提供这种保险。

Companies like Parametrics and others that, you know, we're aware of are involved in providing insurance.

Speaker 0

他们为这些合同的参数风险承保。

They're underwriting the parametric risk of these contracts.

Speaker 0

要做到这一点,他们需要精算方面的数据支持。

And in order to do that, they need actuarial input.

Speaker 0

所以他们需要了解客户集群的一些信息,比如站点级别的冗余供电、冗余冷却、冗余网络连接,有没有能力应对故障,设计是否达到了满足这些性能要求的标准,附近有没有备件仓库,这样万一出现大量故障,他们能尽快恢复运行。

So they need to have some sort of information about the cluster that people have, things like redundant power at the site level, redundant cooling, redundant internet connections, that they have the ability to mitigate failures, that they have designed things up to the performance standard that meets these performances, that they have a parts depot nearby so that if there's a bunch of failures, they can actually get things back online.

Speaker 0

还要看现场人员配置是否充足,站点是不是在洪泛区或者可能被飓风影响的地方,如果是的话,有没有针对这些自然灾害的相应保险,合同里有没有保护他们的不可抗力条款。

That they have the correct amount of people on-site, that the site is not, you know, in a flood plain or about to get taken up by a hurricane or something, and if it is that they have the requisite insurance against those natural disasters and there's force majeure clauses in the contract that protect them.

Speaker 0

总之,还有很多类似的要求。

Anyway, on and on.

Speaker 0

所以重点是,我们已经制定了一些示例性的服务级别协议和合同模板,正在与Neoclouds的客户进行交流,无论是云服务商还是实验室,都希望有这样一个行业标准。

And so the point is that we have developed a number of example SLAs and example contracts that we are circulating with customers of Neoclouds and both the clouds and the labs want this industry standard.

Speaker 0

他们希望有一定的标准化,这样他们可以在此基础上做一些定制化调整,但至少能明确这些合同里重要术语的定义。

Like they want some standardization so that they can make some customizations, but they know what the definitions of important terms are within these contracts.

Speaker 0

节点、机架、站点和集群的定义分别是什么?

What is the definition of node versus rack versus sites versus cluster?

Speaker 0

什么是停机时间?

What is downtime?

Speaker 0

什么是不可抗力,等等等等。

What is force majeure and etcetera, etcetera.

Speaker 0

有各种具体的事项,而且因为我们见过这么多交易和合同,我觉得我们能够为贷款方、服务提供商和买家提供一定程度的确定性,让他们知道交易能够顺利完成,而且之后不会出现一大堆问题。

There's all sorts of specific things and because we've seen so many of these deals happen and so many of these contracts, we're able to, I think provide a level of certainty, both the lenders and to the providers and to the buyers that, you know, they can get these deal done, the deals done and that people aren't going to be having a bunch of issues later.

Speaker 0

话虽如此,这个动机本身是令人担忧的。

With that said, the motivation for this is concerning.

Speaker 0

我们看到很多人互相起诉。

The fact that we've seen a bunch of people sue each other.

Speaker 0

我们不想看到这种情况发生,各位。

We don't want this to happen, guys.

Speaker 0

在最基本的层面上,有时候公司会筹集数亿美元,然后他们花掉这些钱,我认识一些公司,他们真的把融资的100%都花在了算力上,因为公司里只有几个人持有股权,而且他们还没拿工资。

Like At a very basic level, when companies raise hundreds of millions of dollars sometimes, and they spend, I know companies who have spent literally 100% of their round on compute because it's a couple of guys that have equity in the business and they're not taking a salary yet.

Speaker 0

所以他们从风投那里拿到支票,然后直接转手花在Neocloud的算力上。

So they just get the check from the VCs and they turn it around and spend it directly on Neocloud capacity.

Speaker 0

这是你公司生命周期中能做的最关键的决定。

This is the most critical decision you can make in the life cycle of your company.

Speaker 0

所以,这真的取决于你选择信任谁。

So it really depends who you choose to trust.

Speaker 0

所以,SemiAnalysis提供的服务就是对这些供应商进行技术评估,包括他们做的决策、他们应对问题的能力。

So, the offering from SemiAnalysis is really to provide a technical assessment of all of these providers, the decisions that they've made, their ability to respond to things.

Speaker 0

这包括实际操作经验,包括实地考察,包括做那些辛苦的工作来把细节搞清楚。

This includes hands on experience, it includes visiting sites, it includes like doing the dirty work to get those details flushed out.

Speaker 0

是的,如果你想让我们做技术评估,可以访问semianalysis.com的ClusterMAX,你可以为你的交易做承保,或者带着信心继续前进。

And yeah, ClusterMAX at semianalysis.com if you wanna engage us for that technical assessment, you can underwrite your deal or you can move forward with confidence.

Speaker 0

但这就是融资的大背景。

But that's sort of the backdrop on financing.

Speaker 0

另一个重要话题是,SemiAnalysis正在推出一个信贷和市场模型,覆盖目前整个担保体系。

Maybe the the other big conversation is that SemiAnalysis is launching a credit and markets model, covering really the entire backstop universe that's going on right now.

Speaker 0

Dan发布了一篇很棒的文章,详细介绍了这些内容。

We had a great article that Dan put out covering these details.

Speaker 0

英伟达的资产负债表外担保规模已经增长到超过5880亿美元,基本上是在2027财年末的当前水平。

NVIDIA's backstop universe off balance sheet has grown to be over $588,000,000,000 that they are backstopping in the current, like at the end of FY twenty seven, basically.

Speaker 0

也就是当前或即将到来的财年。

So the current or soon to be current fiscal year.

Speaker 0

预测显示,这种表外担保将持续增长,到2031年底将超过2万亿美元。

The forecasts, this continues, is for this off balance sheet backstops to grow to over $2,000,000,000,000 by the end of two thousand and thirty one.

Speaker 0

这包括我们发布的大量细节,比如实际建设一个站点以及谁得到了担保。

And this includes a whole bunch of detail that, you know, we published when it comes to actually building a site and who is being backstopped?

Speaker 0

他们实际需要建设什么?

What do they need to actually build?

Speaker 0

这一切最终能顺利实现的可能性有多大?

What is the likelihood that it all comes through?

Speaker 0

在真正筹集资金或向付费客户兑现承诺等方面遇到问题的可能性有多大?

What's the likelihood that you have some issues actually raising the capital or delivering on the commitment to the paying customer and things like that.

Speaker 0

但重点是,如果你对这个建设项目的融资感兴趣,就去读那篇文章《NVIDIA 的担保宇宙》,并联系我们了解信贷市场模型,因为流入这个生态系统的资金规模值得关注。

But maybe the point is like, if you're interested in the financing of this build out, go read that article, NVIDIA Backstop Universe, and contact us about the credit markets model because the amount of amount of capital that's flowing into this ecosystem is worth paying attention to.

Speaker 0

我们就说到这里吧。

Let's leave it at that.

Speaker 2

据我所知,NVIDIA 大概担保了 8270 亿美元,数字可能不太准,但根据我们的模型预测是这样的。

NVIDIA, I believe, and I might get these numbers wrong, but are backstopping approximately $827,000,000,000 projected according to our model.

Speaker 2

仅 31 财年,供应链方面,比如惠普等公司,就有 8270 亿美元。

$827,000,000,000 in fiscal year thirty one only for the supply chain for like HP and etcetera.

Speaker 2

这还不包括 LPS。

This does not include like LPS.

Speaker 2

这也不包括数据中心建设之类的项目。

This does not include actually, like, the like, the stuff that like, the data center build out, etcetera.

Speaker 2

这纯粹是他们担保的供应链,比如HPM供应商等等,这简直太疯狂了。

This is purely just the supply chain that they're backstopping, like, HPM providers, etcetera, which which is which is quite insane.

Speaker 2

是8270亿美元。

It's $827,000,000,000.

Speaker 1

还绰绰有余。

With a beat.

Speaker 0

为了让这些东西按时启动,物理世界里得发生很多事情。

There's a lot of stuff happening in the physical world in order for this stuff to be turned on, especially on time.

Speaker 0

但我觉得不只是NVIDIA。

But there's a I I think it's not just NVIDIA.

Speaker 0

这里要说的另一点是,亚马逊也在这么做。

Maybe the the another point to make here is just that Amazon's doing this.

Speaker 0

谷歌也在这么做。

Google is doing this.

Speaker 0

很多公司都在动用他们的资产负债表,因为他们想分享上涨的好处,而不必承担那么多风险——当然他们也在承担一些风险,但不像其他人承担那么多。所以很多公司从中受益,因为他们不一定需要像NVIDIA那样,建立在有投资级买家基础上的业务。

A lot of companies are putting their balance sheet to work because they wanna be exposed to the upside without actually taking up a whole bunch of the, not necessarily risk because they were taking on some risk, but the quantity of risks that others are taking, and so a lot of companies are benefiting from this because they don't necessarily need to have a business built on having investment grade off takers like NVIDIA.

Speaker 0

他们只需要有那个后盾,让英伟达相信这些客户会来并且准备好付款。

They just need to have that backstop where NVIDIA has confidence that these customers are gonna show up and be ready to pay.

Speaker 0

如果他们不来,你知道,英伟达就会自己把产能拿走。

And if they don't, you know, they'll take the capacity for themselves.

Speaker 0

但现在的情况是,很多公司都在按时付款,这已经是个不错的记录了。

But it's a pretty, it's a track record of companies showing up to pay right now.

Speaker 0

而那些今天还没筹到资金的公司,想签一千块GPU的一年合同,但拿不出钱来支撑三到五年的费用。

And companies that don't necessarily have the funding raised today, who wanna commit to a thousand GPU contract for a year, don't have the money to do it for three, four, five years.

Speaker 0

但他们第一年训练模型的时候,就指望着能筹到更多钱,事情会顺利起来。

But when they train that model in the first year, they're expecting to be able to raise more money and things are gonna work.

Speaker 0

而且很多这样的公司必须得成功,这个模式才能行得通,不过到目前为止一切顺利。

And a lot of these companies have to work for this to work out, but so far so good.

Speaker 0

我们看到很多来自不同行业的公司,比如机器人、药物研发、材料科学,都在产出惊人的成果,更不用说编程代理了。

We are seeing a lot of companies across all sorts of different industries, you know, robotics, drug discovery, material science, like they're producing incredible results, let alone the coding agents.

Speaker 0

所以,这里确实有重要的事情在发生。

So, there's something important going on here.

Speaker 0

我觉得这值得深入探讨,搞清楚英伟达到底在多大程度上兜底了这些事。

I think it's worth digging into and understanding the full extent to which NVIDIA is backstopping things.

Speaker 0

也许最后想聊的是,我们看到有多少老GPU还在被使用。

Maybe the other thing to end on is just how much we are seeing old GPUs be used.

Speaker 0

现在很多人想把H100给我们,这些卡到现在已经用了三四年了。

Lots of people wanna give us H100s today, which are three or four years old at this point.

Speaker 0

明年有些就要进入第五年了。

Some moving into five years next year.

Speaker 0

等我们拿到bilirubin的时候,市场上就会有用了五年的H100了。

When we get bilirubin, we're gonna have five year old H100s on the market.

Speaker 0

这,你知道,并没有按照Doctor说的那样发展。

This is, you know, not going the way that Doctor.

Speaker 0

Burry当初开始批评大家的折旧计划时,他预测的情况并没有发生。

Burry said it was going to when he started criticizing everybody's depreciation schedules.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Okay?

Speaker 0

现在签的H100容量合同都是四年的。

There are four year contracts being signed today for H100 capacity.

Speaker 0

OpenAI从来没有放弃过他们拿到的任何一块A100 GPU。

OpenAI has never given up an A100 GPU that they've gotten.

Speaker 0

那些是2020年就有的。

Those came back in 2020.

Speaker 0

所以那些都已经用了六年多了。

So, those are six plus years old.

Speaker 0

大家心里可能都在想,财务方面的问题就是终端价值。

And maybe the question on everybody's mind and the finance side is terminal value.

Speaker 0

当这些合同到期时,你怎么能为这些芯片的五年或六年终端价值做承保呢?

How can you underwrite the terminal value at five years or six years on some of these chips when these contracts expire?

Speaker 0

到目前为止还不错。

So far so good.

Speaker 0

如果需求继续超过供应,我们预计这些价格会继续上涨,只要这些旧GPU还能开机,人们就会继续为它们买单。

If demand continues to outstrip supply, we will expect that these prices are gonna continue to rise and people are gonna continue to pay for even the old GPUs so long as they can be turned on.

Speaker 0

我们很快会有后续节目,聊聊800伏直流电和数据中心的各种改造,到时候记得收听。

Tune in more when we have another follow-up coming up soon about 800 volt DC and all of the modifications to data centers.

Speaker 0

如果大家要启用Grace Blackwell GB300,那机架的功率就是140千瓦,峰值需求时接近200千瓦,对吧?

If people are gonna turn on Grace Blackwell GB300, they're running racks that are 140 kilowatts, approaching 200 kilowatts at peak demand, right?

Speaker 0

这跟H100机架30千瓦完全不一样,整个设施都是按30到40千瓦设计的。

This is way different than an H100 rack at 30 kilowatts where the entire facility is built for 30 to 40 kilowatts.

Speaker 0

他们根本没法接受明年要来的那些新设备。

They can't accept any of the new Varroobins that are coming next year.

Speaker 0

那这些设施除了托管这些GPU,还能干什么呢?

And so these facilities, what are they gonna do other than host these GPUs?

Speaker 0

也许把旧的拆了,换上新的CPU服务器用于沙盒,或者装点存储,但很可能就是继续运行那些还很值钱的H100,直到它们报废。

Maybe rip them out and put in new CPU servers for the sandboxes, maybe install some storage, but likely they just keep running the H100s that are so valuable until they expire.

Speaker 0

好了,各位,接下来我们该聊点什么?

Anyway, guys, where do we go from here?

Speaker 0

除了融资,还有很多话题可以聊。

Lots to to talk about beyond financing.

Speaker 0

你想聊聊沙盒、训练框架或者强化学习那些东西吗,普拉特?

You wanna talk about sandboxes or harnesses or RL stuff, Pratt?

Speaker 0

你打算测试什么?

What are you gonna be testing?

Speaker 2

要不要聊聊托管训练?

Should talk about hosted training?

Speaker 0

对,托管训练。

Yeah, hosted training.

Speaker 2

那就聊这个吧。

Let's do it.

Speaker 0

我直到这周才意识到,强化学习看起来规模小,因为它比预训练小,但从可靠性和正确性的角度来看,它其实难得多,因为你把推理的所有难点和训练的所有难点都结合在了一起,还得想办法把它们理清楚。

The thing I didn't realize until this week is that RL seemed like smaller because it's smaller than pre training, but it's on a reliability perspective and like a correctness perspective, it's actually way harder because you're combining all the hard parts of inference with all the hard parts of training, and then you need to think them up.

Speaker 0

再加上一个叫环境或沙盒的东西,你还得搞清楚怎么部署它。

Plus you add this thing called an environment or a sandbox that you also need to figure out how to deploy.

Speaker 0

所以,这就像三个组件需要同步协调,而不是像只有一个东西可以让你去思考,即使后训练集群不一定那么大。

So, there's like three components that sync up as opposed to like just one thing you can reason about, even if the post training clusters are not necessarily so big.

Speaker 0

那你觉得托管训练怎么样?

So, what do you think about hosted training?

Speaker 0

这会不会成为一件真正的事情?我们不一定看到每个人都能搞定Kubernetes和Slurm,所以现在他们得用Kubernetes,还得在上面做一大堆事情。

Is it gonna be a real thing that when people We're not necessarily seeing everybody nail Kubernetes and Slurm, so now they gotta do Kubernetes and then do a whole bunch of stuff on top of it.

Speaker 0

你怎么看?

What you think?

Speaker 2

我觉得托管训练很有意思。

I mean, hosted training is very interesting.

Speaker 2

我们跟很多人聊过。

Know, we've been talking to a lot of people.

Speaker 2

但我还是觉得现在还没有市场。

I still don't think there's a market for it yet.

Speaker 2

我说的是‘还没有’,所以如果以后有市场了,别来找我啊。

I said yet, you know, so please don't come back to me if there is a market.

Speaker 2

但当然,你可以想到一个常见的问题,就是你用来训练这些模型的IP,也就是你的知识产权,必须保留在自己手里。

But, of course, one one common thing you can think is that your IP, your intellectual property that you're training these models on, it has to remain to yourself.

Speaker 2

这些数据必须留在自己手里,而不是交给像OpenAI或Anthropic这样的第三方。

It has to remain for yourself rather than going to like a third party like OpenAI or Anthropic.

Speaker 2

但如果OpenAI或Anthropic能提供更好的产品,情况就完全不同了,你可能会觉得,我需要更好的产品,而不是保护我的知识产权。

This could be a completely different case when OpenAI or Anthropic just deliver a better product and you're just like, I need a better product over protecting my IP.

Speaker 2

所以我觉得这将是近期值得好好讨论的一个话题。

So I think that's gonna be a good discussion to have in the near future.

Speaker 2

关于托管训练,我还想讨论的一点是它对基础设施的要求有多高,你知道吗?

Another thing I want to discuss about hosted training is how infrastructure intensive it is, you know?

Speaker 2

我前几天跟另一个做强化学习环境评估的实验室聊过,他们说他们真的有一整排服务器,就专门跑这些环境,你知道吗?

We've been I was talking to this other evaluationlike this RL environments lab the other day, and they mentioned they literally have like server forms, just running environments, you know?

Speaker 2

整个房间都是服务器,就为了跑这些环境。

And just a whole room full of server farms just running environments.

Speaker 2

你可能会想,为什么不用Docker呢?他们当然也用了。

And you would assume that why don't we just run Docker, which of course they do.

Speaker 2

他们在虚拟化方面也做得挺到位的。

They do virtualization to a decent extent.

Speaker 2

但与此同时,你还需要在不同的硬件上运行它,比如iPhone、安卓手机等等。

But at the same time, you also need to run it on like different hardware like iPhones, Android phones, etc.

Speaker 2

所以这挺有意思的,你知道,它太依赖基础设施了,以至于一旦你采用托管训练,你管理的基础设施比之前管理集群时还要多。

So which is quite interesting, know, like it's so infrastructure intensive that is it that once you take hosted training, you're just managing more infrastructure than you did when you were doing managed clusters.

Speaker 2

因为现在你必须自动扩展环境、自动扩展推理节点、自动扩展训练节点。

Because now you have to auto scale the environments, you have to auto scale the inference nodes, you have to auto scale the trainer nodes.

Speaker 2

而且在做所有这些的同时,你还必须确保训练和推理之间没有不匹配。

And at the same time, doing all of this, you have to make sure that there is no trainer inference mismatch.

Speaker 2

所以有太多事情要处理了。

So it's a million things to take care of.

Speaker 2

我们应该给这些托管训练提供商更多的认可,因为他们要管理的事情太多了。

We should give more credit to these hosted training providers, that there are like a billion things they have to manage.

Speaker 2

我的观点是,托管训练要真正发展起来,除非你的公司或初创公司能处理所有的事情。

And my hot take is that, managed hosted training is only gonna become big if your company, if your startup is handling literally everything.

Speaker 2

一旦你处理了每一个环节,从环境创建,到亲自和客户坐在一起,部署前向工程师,搭建环境,训练,帮助客户训练他们的模型。

And once you handle every single part from environment creation, literally sitting with your customer, deploying forward engineers, building environment, training, helping helping your customers train their models.

Speaker 2

一旦客户掌握了这个,就是说,基本上学会了怎么真正用好它,然后你才能放手,整个流程才能顺利跑起来。

And once the customer develops this, know, like develops this, basically gets educated on how to, like, really work with this, then only you can take your hands back and, like, that entire run, like, happens.

Speaker 2

这就是我的一个大胆的看法。

So this the hot take I have.

Speaker 2

你懂吗?

You know?

Speaker 2

基本上你得全程手把手带着他们。

You have to basically just carry their hand throughout the process.

Speaker 0

对,再展开讲讲。

Yeah, dig into that a little bit more.

Speaker 0

在预训练这个领域,基本上没有哪个卖集群的供应商真的懂预训练。

In the pre training world, there's basically no examples where the provider that's selling the cluster actually really understands pre training.

Speaker 0

你不可能跟CoreWeave签个合同,然后他们给你提供数据混合、架构方面的建议,比如‘嘿,我听说稀疏性这块儿有门道’。

It's not like you contract a cluster with CoreWeave and they're giving you tips on data mixes and architecture and like, hey, I heard this stuff about sparsity.

Speaker 0

他们只管基础设施层面,也就是性能,也就是可靠性。

They're gonna work on the infrastructure layer, which means performance, which means reliability.

Speaker 0

那强化学习这边的情况怎么样?

So what's the analogy on RL?

Speaker 0

不只是基础设施更难,你还需要有驻场工程师,了解这家公司的业务,并且保证你训练的模型能正常工作。

Not only is the infrastructure harder, you also need to have forward deployed engineers and understand this company's business and guarantee that the model you're training is gonna work.

Speaker 0

CoreWeave或者Nebius从来不需要向客户承诺训练任务会顺利运行。

That was never a commitment that Corey had to make or Nebius had to make to one of their customers, that like the training job was gonna work well.

Speaker 2

我觉得这挺有意思的,你知道吗?

I mean, it's an interesting thing, you know?

Speaker 2

人们以为托管训练会很容易。

People assume that hoster training is gonna be very easy.

Speaker 2

说实话,我之前也这么以为。

Honestly, I assumed that too.

Speaker 2

就像,你只需要训练模型就行了。

Was like, you just train the model.

Speaker 2

生成器生成模型,生成轨迹,然后就在这些轨迹上训练训练器。

The generator generates the model, generates the trajectories and just train trainer on these trajectories.

Speaker 2

搞定,对吧?

Voila, you're done, right?

Speaker 2

但事实证明,我们日常工作中真正有价值的任务,远比生成轨迹或搭建环境要复杂得多。

But turns out the real valuable tasks in day to day work, we do, is way more complicated than just generating trajectories or building environment.

Speaker 2

我觉得搭建环境本身就是个很难的任务,尤其是去年Anthropic买了那么多环境,就是这个原因。

I think building environment's a very hard task, and especially that's why Anthropic bought the most environments last year.

Speaker 2

这也是为什么他们的编程模型那么厉害,因为这件事本身就很难。

That's why their coding model was so damn good, is because it's a hard thing.

Speaker 2

他们为此花了不少钱。

And they paid a lot of money for that.

Speaker 2

所以,他们没想到这一点。

So that's why they didn't expect it.

Speaker 2

很多托管训练提供商基本上以为这就像托管端点或托管推理一样,你只要提供一个端点就行了,当然,这本身也不是什么特别好的体验。

A lot of hosted training providers basically thought that it's like managed endpoints or managed inference that you just provide an endpoint, which still of course is not like an amazing experience.

Speaker 2

但他们基本上以为你只要提供基础设施,客户就能享受服务了。

But they basically thought that you just provide like, you just provide the infrastructure and the client like enjoys it.

Speaker 2

但是还有很多教育工作要做。

But there's a lot of education to be done.

Speaker 2

当然,罗马不是一天建成的。

Of course, Rome wasn't built in a day.

Speaker 2

我们还有时间。

We still have more time.

Speaker 2

我们只是处在这场革命的初期。

We're just in the beginning of this revolution.

Speaker 2

所以,我们就等着看会发生什么吧。

So yeah, we'll wait and watch what happens.

Speaker 0

最后一个关于后训练的问题。

Last question about post training.

Speaker 0

在推理领域,如果做个类比的话,有一些开源框架占据了主导地位。

In the inference world, if you're making an analogy to that, there were some open source frameworks that just dominated.

Speaker 0

所以,VLOM和SGLAN为所有人简化了事情。

And so, VLOM and SGLAN kind of simplified things for everybody.

Speaker 0

我们很快就获得了一些非常高质量的体验,然后随着时间的推移,人们又构建了一堆更复杂的东西,比如预填充解码分离、训练投机者、量化技术、缓存路由等等,这些都是在基本配方之外的各种花哨功能,超越了内核,超越了开源模型的出色性能。

We got some really high quality experiences really quickly, and then people built a whole bunch of more complicated stuff over time with prefilled decode disaggregation, training speculators, quantization stuff, cacheware routing, all this extra bells and whistles beyond what the basic recipe from the Beyond the kernels, beyond great performance out of the open source models.

Speaker 0

我们把这个和强化学习中的框架比较一下。

Let's compare that to frameworks in RL.

Speaker 0

Slime、Miles、Verl、Prime RL。

Slime, Miles, Verl, Prime RL.

Speaker 0

你看到大家都在用什么?

What are you seeing people use?

Speaker 0

现在市面上有很多这样的框架。

There's a lot of them out there right now.

Speaker 0

而且一些托管的训练提供商也把这一层抽象掉了,你甚至都不知道自己在用什么框架。

And some of the hosted training providers kinda abstract that away too, where you don't even know what framework you're using.

Speaker 0

你只需要带上你的数据集,甚至你都不知道这些,因为那是前沿部署研究员,FDR,不是FTE。

You're just bringing your data set or even you don't even know about that because the forward deployed researcher, FDR, not FTE.

Speaker 2

FDR,FDR。

FDR, FDR.

Speaker 2

我们

We

Speaker 0

不能告诉那些做强化学习的人,他们是工程师,是正式员工,对吧?

can't be telling these RL guys, they're engineers, the FTEs, right?

Speaker 0

他们是前沿部署研究员。

They are FDRs.

Speaker 0

那么,跟我说说框架之争吧,你觉得最后谁会胜出?

So, Tell me about framework wars and what you think is gonna actually show up there.

Speaker 2

框架之争很有意思,因为有个很搞笑的现象:所有这些推理服务提供商,一开始都提供了很棒的框架,比如SGLang、VLM等等。

Framework wars are very interesting because it's a very funny thing that all these inference providers, they started with providing amazing frameworks, you know, like SGLang, VLM, etcetera.

Speaker 2

但他们接下来想拓展的市场,基本上就是托管训练。

But the next market, the next market that they thought to expand was basically just hosted training.

Speaker 2

所以你会看到,比如Redox ARC在利用Miles,这真的很厉害,顺便说一句。

That's how you can see you can see like Redox ARC capitalizing on miles, which is absolutely amazing, by the way.

Speaker 2

他们把框架做得非常方便智能体使用,基本上一次就能搞定设置。

They have made it very agent friendly that you can just set it up like in one shot.

Speaker 2

还挺不错的。

It's pretty decent.

Speaker 2

当然,你得设置超参数,所以训练模型并不是那么简单的事。

Of course, like you have to set the hyperparameters, so it's not like that easy of a task to just train a model.

Speaker 2

但他们做得非常好。

But they have done a very good job.

Speaker 2

Prime RL 也是一个很好的选择。

Prime RL is another very good one.

Speaker 2

在我加入 SemiAnalysis 之前,GPU 资源很紧张的时候——顺便说一句,欢迎加入 SemiAnalysis——我在 Prime RL 上跑了很多次实验,体验也相当愉快。

When I was GPU poor before joining SemiAnalysis, shout out, join SemiAnalysis, I did run like a lot of runs on Prime RL and that was also a pretty pleasant experience.

Speaker 2

随着时间的推移,我对这些框架的使用体验越来越好。

Over time over time, my experience with these frameworks have gone better.

Speaker 2

当然,这些团队投入了大量精力,而且构建这些训练框架比人们想象的要难得多。

Of course, are these teams have put in a lot of investments and, like, building these training frameworks is way harder than people think.

Speaker 2

我建议听众去读一下 HumanSand 的博客,他们基本上展示了如何在大规模上实现原生的 NVFP4 训练。

I suggest the audience to read the human sand blog, where they basically show how native NVFP four training is done at such a large scale.

Speaker 2

因为训练和推理的不匹配会随着步骤累积。

And because trainer inference mismatch compounds over steps.

Speaker 2

而且随着轨迹变长,你确实希望优化器学到更多技术性的东西,对吧?

And as your trajectories get longer, you do want the optimizer to learn more technically, right?

Speaker 2

所以你得再多跑几步。

So you have to take a bit more steps.

Speaker 2

如果训练和推理的不匹配累积到一百步,你会发现模型发散得很厉害,训练就崩了。

And if trainer inference mismatch compounds over like a 100 steps, you'll realize that your model is diverging a lot, and that collapses training.

Speaker 2

所以,特别感谢所有框架提供方,日夜不停地工作,提交PR,哪怕可能只是为了满足SLA。

So shout out, shout out, huge shout out to all these framework providers putting in work day and night, sending in PRs, even though it might be just pure SLAs.

Speaker 2

但还是要向他们致敬。

But you shout out to them.

Speaker 0

SLA和PR。

SLAs PRs.

Speaker 0

致敬。

Shout outs.

Speaker 0

给PR的点赞。

The shout outs for PRs.

Speaker 2

我们有了个新词。

We got a term.

Speaker 2

我们有了个新词,SLAs PRs,就像SLAs之类的,你懂的,就像Neoclouds那样。

We we got a term SLAs PRs, like SLAs or something, you know, like like Neoclouds, you know.

Speaker 2

所以……

So

Speaker 0

今年早些时候我在MLSYS,其中一个演讲里,InfraAct的Roger,给Roger点个赞,他基本上说,如果你想让我们合并你的PR,你得在Slack上给我们发消息,因为我们不再看每一个PR了。

I was at MLSYS earlier this year in the one of the talks, Roger from InfraAct, shout out Roger, was basically like, if you want us to merge your PR, you gotta message us in Slack because we're not reading every single one of your slot PRs anymore.

Speaker 0

我就想,好吧,好建议。

I was like, alright, good advice.

Speaker 0

知道了。

To know.

Speaker 0

咱们准备收尾吧,各位。

Let's move to wrap here, guys.

Speaker 0

萨姆,我们聊完Neoclouds了,你还有什么想法?

Sam, what's what's on on your mind as we finish up talking about Neoclouds?

Speaker 0

接下来我们往哪儿走,伙计?

Where do we go from here, buddy?

Speaker 0

下一步是什么?

What's next?

Speaker 2

萨姆,你想聊聊Azure吗?

Sam, you wanna talk about Azure?

Speaker 0

我们又绕回来了。

We brought it back.

Speaker 1

所以你要一家一家公司地批评他们的内部组织,先从Azure和AWS开始。

So you go company by company and criticize their internal organization beginning beginning with Azure and AWS.

Speaker 1

我希望少一些莫名其妙的bug。

I want fewer obscure bugs.

Speaker 1

我希望ClusterMAX 4.0没什么好写的。

I want nothing to write about in ClusterMAX four point o.

Speaker 1

集群越好,需要说的就越少。

The better the cluster, the lesser is to say.

Speaker 1

所以我希望登录Slinky后一切都能正常工作,有拓扑感知,不用每次检查健康检查时都提心吊胆。

So I wanna log on to Slinky and just have it all work, have topology awareness, not blow my foot off every single time I try to see whether the health checks work.

Speaker 1

而且,我希望我所有的性能工程师朋友都能得到好集群,不用操心。

And, I hope that all my performance engineer friends get good clusters that they never have to think about.

Speaker 0

不再有提供商随机擦除你的节点,随机重启它们,随机决定kubectl要宕机三天。

No more providers randomly wiping your nodes, randomly rebooting them, randomly deciding that kubectl is gonna go down for three days.

Speaker 0

我们听过一些恐怖故事,对吧?

We've heard some horror stories from guys, right?

Speaker 0

所以,

So,

Speaker 1

用好的SLA保护自己,但更好的办法是,直接选一个好的提供商。

Protect yourself with a good SLA, but better than that, just go with a good provider.

Speaker 1

你宁愿不用为了那5%的补偿而斗争,因为集群一年宕机三周。

You'd rather not be fighting to get back your whatever, 5%, because it was down for three weeks out of the year.

Speaker 0

要相信别人。

Trust people.

Speaker 0

让我们给每个人一种可以互相信任的方式。

Let's give everybody a way in which you can trust everybody else.

Speaker 0

大家手拉手,一起唱《Kumbaya》吧。

Join hands and sing Kumbaya.

Speaker 0

感谢大家收听这期播客,听我们聊ClusterMAX,我们ClusterMAX 4.0见,等我们在这些数据中心里部署好Verruubans之后。

Thanks everybody for joining this podcast, listening to us talk about ClusterMAX, and we'll see you at ClusterMAX 4.0 after we get some Verruubans in these data centers.

Speaker 0

很期待那一天的到来,各位。

Looking forward to it, guys.

Speaker 2

那TPU呢?

What about TPUs?

Speaker 2

我们打算做吗?

Are we doing it?

Speaker 0

ClusterMAX上的TPU。

TPUs on ClusterMAX.

Speaker 2

ClusterMAX上的TPU。

TPUs on ClusterMAX.

Speaker 0

你泄露的秘密太多了,普拉特。

You're giving away too many secrets, Pratt.

Speaker 0

秘密太多了。

Too many secrets.

Speaker 0

TPU、Tranium,还有其他一些新型加速器,现在正部署在全国乃至全球的数据中心里。

TPUs, Tranium, some other novel accelerators that are being deployed in data centers across the country right now and around the world.

Speaker 0

大家记得再回来看看。

Check back in, everybody.

Speaker 0

好的。

Alright.

Speaker 0

阿卡什,把那整段都剪掉。

Akash, cut that whole shit.

关于 Bayt 播客

Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕,帮助你打破语言障碍,轻松听懂全球优质播客。

继续浏览更多播客