十分之六的人对自己的职业选择感到后悔。在人工智能时代，该如何做出不同选择？| 比尔·盖瑞利谈未来工作

现在最要紧的是赶紧跑

The thing to do right now is to run as fast as

有多快跑多快。

you can.

这是比尔·盖利，投资过优步和Zillow的传奇人物，二十多年来亲历了每一次重大科技浪潮，他说这一次真的不一样。

This is Bill Gurley, the legend who backed Uber and Zillow, who's lived through every major tech cycle for over twenty five years, and he says this one is different.

这项新技术带来的冲击如此巨大，如果你不主动掌控自己的职业方向，很可能就会陷入危险。

So there is a so much disruption coming from this new technology that if you don't take control of your own career path, you're likely at risk.

我们做了一项调查，问人们：如果你能回到过去，重新开始你的职业生涯，你会做出不同的选择吗？

We did a survey where we asked people if you could go back in time and start your career over again, would you do something different?

有六成的人回答会。

And six out of 10 said yes.

在人工智能出现之前，选错职业最多浪费几年时间。

Before AI, the wrong career choice cost you years.

有了人工智能，代价可能会变得极其惨重。

With AI, the cost becomes colossal.

我们现在有个机会窗口正在关闭，所以眼下必须加倍努力，抓住这个机会。

We have this window opportunity that's closing, so we should be working really, really hard right now to grasp this opportunity.

我们还剩多少时间？

How much time do we have?

我想提醒所有听众，

Like, I would warn all of your listeners that

比尔，欢迎来到《硅谷女孩》。

Bill, welcome to Silicon Valley Girl.

谢谢你们邀请我。

Thanks for having me on.

非常感谢。

Greatly appreciate it.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我本来准备了个问题，但刚出了条新消息。

I had a question planned, but there's news that just came out.

天哪，不好了。

Oh, no.

Block公司，就是那个母公司，是的。

Block, the parent company Yeah.

看到了。

Saw that.

杰克·多西正大规模裁员，几乎裁掉一半员工，这是他主动且果断拥抱人工智能的举措。

Jack Dorsey is laying off nearly half of its staff in deliberate and bold embrace of AI.

没错。

Yeah.

人们该害怕吗？

Should people be scared?

我会说没错，但得稍微解释一下。

Well, I'm going to say yes, but I'm going to qualify it a little bit.

现在人工智能工具已经到处都是了。

And the AI tools are out there.

这些工具已经存在两三年了。

They've been out there for two or three years now.

它们不会再被关回笼子里了。

They're not going to be put back in the box.

它们不会消失的。

They're not going to go away.

我的建议很简单，不管你在哪个行业，想防范AI，就把自己打造成最擅长利用AI的版本。

My advice, which is very straightforward for anyone in any field, to protect yourself against AI, be the most AI enabled version of yourself possible.

明白了。

Okay.

还要了解你的领域里AI能做到什么程度。

And know what it's possible of in your field.

搞清楚AI在你领域里的极限，尽可能多地去用它。

Know the edge of what it's possible of in your field, use it as much as you possibly can.

因为我发现，就我自己来说，用得越多，就越能想到更好的提问方式。

Because one thing I've learned, just in my own endeavors, the types of prompts that you think of giving it increase the more you use it.

你会慢慢明白它到底能做什么。

Like you start to understand what it's capable of.

所以，如果你不主动去用它，就会越来越落后于那些已经用起来的人。

And so any lack of leaning into it means you're getting further behind against people that are.

这次不一样，因为它影响到了白领阶层，以前大家总觉得这类工作很安全，这可能是个误会。

It's new in that it's hitting white collar workers, which I think people had viewed those jobs as safe, which may have been a mistake.

说实话，如果你已经被取代了，我真心建议你问问自己：这份工作真的是你热爱并想长期做的吗？

Look, you've been replaced, I would really, and this gets into this new book I'm releasing, I would ask yourself, is that the role you really loved and wanted to be in?

如果不是，那这或许正是你去寻找真正理想工作的契机。

And if not, maybe this is an opportunity for you to go find that.

明白了。

Okay.

所以，这类新闻以后会越来越多。

So, yeah, we're gonna see a lot of this type of news.

你刚才提到要避免冒险，还说以前那些工作被认为是稳定的。

You said that playing it safe and you mentioned safe jobs, we considered them safe.

我们一直以为，聪明才智能让我们一生安稳。

We thought intelligence is something that's going to get us through our lives.

你说现在最安全的选择，反而成了最大的风险。

You say safe is now the highest risk move.

能解释一下吗？

Can you explain?

我觉得现实很无奈，很多顾问、辅导员和父母都劝人去选那些被认为稳当的工作。

I think the unfortunate reality is that many advisors and counselors and parents push people towards jobs that they thought of as safe.

我说这很遗憾，并不是因为人工智能。

And the reason I say it's unfortunate isn't because of AI.

如果你在工作中感到空虚，2023年盖洛普的一项研究显示，超过一半的人对工作毫无投入。

If you're unfulfilled at work, there's a 2023 Gallup poll study that came out and said over fifty percent of people aren't actively engaged at work.

而真正算得上投入的，只有百分之二十三左右。

And the number that qualifies engaged is like 23%.

所以，如果你在这样的岗位上根本提不起劲，也不愿主动提升自己，那不管有没有AI，你早就处于危险之中了。

So if you're in these roles, you don't really care that much about, and you're not pushing yourself to improve, you're kind of a sitting duck anyway, like for these things.

我个人觉得，这些父母的出发点其实都很善良，只是特别担心孩子未来的经济稳定和生活保障。

And I personally believe that all those parents were quite well intentioned and very worried about the economic stability and viability of their children's lives.

但事实是，人这一辈子，只有一次机会。

But the truth of the matter is you only get one shot at this life.

如果你能找到一件让你无比好奇的事，你就能远远超越身边那些人。

If you can find something that you're just insanely curious about, you're going to differentiate yourself so much greater than everyone that's around you.

我觉得在生活的很多方面，只要你真的做到顶尖，经济回报自然会来。

I think in many aspects of life, economic part comes along if you're really great at what you do.

你能说说，不走稳妥路线的人通常有哪些特质吗？

Can you give me three traits of a person who doesn't play it safe?

他们每天会做些什么？

What do they do daily?

首先，我觉得我写这本书的一个重要原因，就是想给人们一个许可——允许自己去追求那些原本觉得不可能，或者别人会劝你放弃的工作。

Well, first of all, I think having one of the I think the number one reason I wrote this book was to give permission, give people permission to chase a job they might not have thought was either possible or that they might have thought someone would try and talk them out of.

书里就有很多这样的例子。

And there's examples in the book of that.

丹尼·迈耶是纽约著名的餐饮企业家，也是Shake Shack的创始人。他叔叔曾劝他去当餐饮从业者，但那时他正走在另一条路上——主修政治学，做销售，准备考法学院，打算当律师。

Danny Meyer, who's a famous restaurateur in New York and the man that started Shake Shack, his uncle told him you should go be a restaurateur, but he was on a path, poly sci major, salesman taking the LSAT, going to go be a lawyer.

他父亲以前在餐饮生意上吃过亏，经济上受过打击，这让他对这个行业避之不及。

And his father had had some problems with economic trouble and businesses related to restaurants and it pushed him away from it.

最终是他的叔叔把他拉了回来。

His uncle is the one that kind of brought him back.

他叔叔对他说：你整个周末都在到处找最好的餐厅，还专门写笔记记录。

But his uncle told him, you know, all you do all weekend long is search for the best restaurants and even journaled.

其实从小时候起，他就一直在记餐饮日记，但他从没敢想过，这能成为一份正经职业，更没敢去追求它。

Apparently, since he was a kid, he journaled about restaurants, but he had never given himself the permission to think of it as a career and go after it.

你之所以更安全，是因为你真心热爱一件事时，就会不停地免费学习。

And the reason you're more protected is if you adore something, you're just constantly learning for free.

确实如此。

Yeah.

书里提到的第二个原则就是：打磨你的技艺。

Like, you're not spending like, the second principle in the book is hone your craft.

我一直在谈持续学习这件事。

And I talk about continuous learning.

很多人在学校学完就以为自己学够了，觉得可以歇了。

And many people, I think, unfortunately learn in school and they think, oh, I'm done now.

然后就去上班了。

I'll go work.

但那些顶尖的人，永远都在琢磨自己做的事。

But the best are just always learning about what they do.

对那些特别热衷于这个领域的人来说，吸收新知识反而让他们更有干劲。

And for the best that are hyper curious about that subject area, there's they gain energy in absorbing that new information.

但如果你被逼着去上一门自己不感兴趣的课，只会觉得耗能量。

Whereas if you're forced to go to a class on something you don't like, you lose energy.

特别没劲。

It feels tedious.

对。

Yeah.

这其实是个很好的检验标准，能帮你判断你是不是在正确的方向上努力。

Which is a great test as to whether you're tilting against the wrong the right thing or not.

所以，意思就是别太在意身边人的意见？

So basically, don't listen to everyone around you?

我是说，这种做法要是走极端的话。

I mean, was extreme forms of this.

我有幸见到了里克·鲁宾。

I got to meet Rick Rubin.

他说，自己这辈子每一个职业选择，身边人都劝他别干，但结果证明，全都是他做过最好的决定。当然，你也可以把这事儿推到极端，对吧？

He said every single career decision he's made in his life, people around him told him not to do it, they were all the best decision he possibly I mean, you can take that to an extreme, right?

对。

Yeah.

别一冲动就去追那些不切实际的梦想。

Like don't just go, you know, on quixotic pursuits.

但如果你真的百分百确定想做一件事——我这里还有一些方法，能帮你确认自己是不是真有这么强烈的热情——那我觉得，你就该去试试。

But I think if you become a 100 convinced that you want to go try something, and I have tests in here for whether you're really passionate at that level, then yeah, I think you should go try.

这样下来，我觉得你不仅会更成功，还会过得更充实。

Like and I think I think you'll find you're more successful and more fulfilled.

而且我很认可那种一直可以自由学习的状态。

And I like the continuous free learning.

就是说你学习不是被逼的，而是出于自己的热爱。

So you're learning not because you're required to, but because it's your passion.

还有你的好奇心

And you're curious

去尝试这件事。

about it.

对。

Yeah.

你不能...你见过

You can't you met

我认识不少这样的人。

people I know that are like that.

我觉得每个人都遇到过这样的人。

I think everyone's met people that are like that.

硅谷里到处都是这样的人，尤其是对新技术特别着迷的。

Silicon Valley's full of a lot of people like that, especially about new technologies.

你读到一篇关于夹爪机器人的文章，根本忍不住想自己动手搭一个，看看它到底能干什么。

So, you know, you read an article about claw bot and you just can't not, you know, boot one and try and figure out what it does.

如果你是这种人，那你走的路就对了。

And if you're that type of person, you're in the right lane.

你对这个领域着迷到非得知道最前沿的东西不可。

Like you're so fascinated by the subject that you have to know what's on the edge.

是的。

Yeah.

顺便说一句，想想看，前沿领域反而是能避开AI的地方，挺有意思的。

And by the way, it's interesting to think about the edge as a place that's safe from AI.

AI和大语言模型正在收录所有已知的最佳实践。

So AI and large language models are recording like, all the best practices that have been written down.

但今天正在前沿被发现的东西，还不在这些模型里。

But the stuff that's on the edge that's being discovered today is not in the models.

所以，如果你掌握了一些还没被写下来的知识，无论哪个领域，你都已经领先于这些模型的能力了。

It's And not, so if you're competing by being a person who has that knowledge in any field that hasn't been written down yet, you're out in front of what these models are capable of.

对，所以你会去尝试新东西。

Yeah, and so you try new things.

没错。

Yes.

我觉得。

I feel like.

是的。

Yeah.

你投资这么多年，我知道你最近不投了，但风投在评估创始人时，会把什么当作不保守的信号？

Since you've been investing for a while, I know you recently stopped, but what benchmark VC will consider not playing it safe when looking at a founder?

实际上，我觉得整个风投行业都已经明白，选创始人时绝不能追求稳妥。

Well, actually, I think that the venture industry writ large has learned that you would never have a mindset of safety around choosing a founder.

我觉得最优秀的人往往都有很强的独立思考能力。

I think the best and the brightest are very independently minded.

他们天生就习惯跳出框架思考。

They think outside of the box naturally.

有些人坚定得近乎固执，可能会让人觉得有点疯，确实如此。

I think if anyone feels Some of them are so dogmatically determined that they might come across as a bit, you know, crazy, Yeah.

我相信不止我一个人这么认为。

And I think I I'm not the only one that would say this.

如果你去研究风险投资家们写过的东西，就会发现他们几乎都在寻找这种类型的人。

I think if you go study what what venture capitalists have written, there's a there's there's almost a search for that type of persona.

这其实回溯到那个关于‘疯子’的苹果广告，你知道的。

And it goes back to, like, the Steve Job ad about the crazy ones, you know.

现在我觉得，每个人都该 adopting 这种疯狂的思维，才能在这个世界里脱颖而出，因为你就是自己人生的创业者，对吧？

It feels like everyone right now should be adopting this crazy mindset to succeed in this world because you're becoming the entrepreneur in your life, right?

这么说真是太贴切了。

Think that's a great way of saying it.

尤其是在某些领域，这项新技术带来的冲击巨大，如果你不主动掌控自己的职业方向，就很有可能陷入风险。

There is a, especially in certain fields, there is so much disruption coming from this new technology that if you don't take control of your own career path, then you're likely at risk.

我常这么说：如果你是个主动性很强、对自己职业发展很有信心的人，这些工具简直就是助推器。

And I've often said if you're high agency, if you're a high agency individual who has confidence about driving their own career path, these tools are actually a jet pack.

如果你愿意主动学习，历史上从未有过像现在这样能学得这么快的时候。

Like if you want to proactively learn, there's been no time in the history of the world where you can learn faster.

还有AI，当然也包括你做的这类播客。

And you know, AI, but it's also podcasts like the stuff you do.

YouTube上到处都是各种访谈。

There's interviews all over YouTube.

你现在能学到东西的速度，是前所未有的。

Like you can learn faster than ever before.

但正因如此，我特别反感那种对AI的恐慌情绪——它只会让你停滞不前，而眼下最该做的，就是拼命往前冲。

But if you're, this is part of why I react poorly to the AI anxiety because that might freeze you and then you're not like the thing to do right now is to run as fast as you can.

对。

Yeah.

但我还想更深入地聊聊焦虑，因为你之前说的一句话让我特别紧张。

But I also wanted to dig deeper into anxiety because you said something that gives me a lot of anxiety.

有时候我刷着刷着，就听到有人——包括你——说，我们正面临一个即将关闭的机会窗口，现在必须拼命努力才能抓住它。

Sometimes I scroll and I hear people, including you, say, We have this window of opportunity that's closing, so we should be working really, really hard right now to grasp this opportunity.

你能再详细说说吗？

Can you elaborate on that?

我们到底还有多少时间？

How much time we have?

那我们到底该多拼命地工作？

How much should we be working?

我觉得机会窗口未必真的在关闭。

Well, I don't think I don't think the window's necessarily closing.

我只是觉得，这个工具出现得太快了，功能又太强大，所以每个人都有必要搞清楚它在自己行业和岗位上能做什么，而且要成为团队里最懂它、最清楚它能带来什么可能性的人。

I just think that this tool kinda came at us so fast and it's capable of so many different things that it's it really behooves any individual to figure out what it's capable of in their industry and their role, and once again to be the person in the organization who knows the most about that and what's possible.

但你觉得我们是不是只剩下大概几年？

But do you think we might only have like a couple

几年？我不是那个Eidore吧？

years I'm to not the Eidore?

我很喜欢这些反乌托邦的故事。

A big fan of these dystopian narratives.

你可以找一些有趣的研究看看，美国人的反乌托邦焦虑比中国高了五倍。

There's some interesting research you could go look up that this dystopian anxiety is like five times higher in The US than in China.

真的吗？

Oh, really?

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得问题的一部分在于，我不太明白他们的动机，但像达里奥这样最悲观的人，却总能占据话语权。

And I think part of the problem, and I don't fully understand the motivation, but some of Like Dario's the biggest doomer of all, and he's got the microphone all the time.

对。

Yeah.

总是热门话题。

Always trending.

而且

And

我觉得这不健康，原因我们之前已经讨论过了。

I don't think it's healthy for all the reasons we already discussed.

是的。

Yeah.

我真希望这种情况别再发生了。

So I wish I wish I wish that weren't happening.

但有时候我看到那些标题，也会想，也许我该更努力地工作。

But maybe also sometimes when I see those headlines, I'm like, maybe I should double down work more.

这或许也有积极的一面。

Has a positive angle to

对吧？

it, right?

它可能促使人们采取行动。

It could spur people into action.

有可能，但也会让人彻底停滞，就像我们之前说的那样。

It could, but it also could freeze them with what we already Totally.

你还提到一点，就是放下过去让你成功的东西，这真的很重要。

And something else that you said that unlearning what made you successful before is really important.

就拿我来说，我是个特别拼命的人。

How do you so for me, for example, I'm a very hardworking person.

以前只要是品牌合作，我都会答应，因为已经习惯了。

I would say yes to every brand deal because I'm used to it.

我意识到，虽然还不确定，但我的下一个成长阶段，可能就从学会说‘不’开始。

And I realized that probably, but I'm not sure, probably the next stage of my growth will happen when I learn how to say no.

对。

Yeah.

你是怎么决定的？具体又是怎么做到的？

How do you decide and how do you actually do it?

你该怎么放下那些旧习惯？

How do you unlearn?

有一句话说得特别好：坚定的观点，但要持开放态度，我真的很喜欢这个想法。

There's a great quote, Strong opinions loosely held, And I really love that idea.

如果你没有坚定的主张，就很难真正走出去，每天坚持，取得进展。

So if you don't have strong opinions, it's very difficult to actually get out there and run every day and accomplish things.

但别把任何观点当成不可动摇的真理。

But don't view any of them as sacred.

别觉得什么东西是铁板钉钉、永远不能改的。

Like don't think of anything as hard and fast and might never change.

如果你养成持续学习的习惯，意识到事情可能有风险，那你就能最好地把握什么时候该放手。

And I think if you develop the habit of being a continuous learner and know that there's a risk of this thing, then you're probably are best prepared to know when to let go of something.

我知道这可能不是绝对的，但我觉得，意识到问题可能存在，可能是最有帮助的事了。

I know that it may may not be definitive, but, like, I think I think awareness that it could be a problem is probably the most helpful thing possible.

对。

Yeah.

当你开始发现，这些东西其实正在拖你后腿的时候。

So when you start noticing, it's actually in your way.

对。

Yeah.

你在书里提到六个原则，其中之一是追随你的好奇心。

So in your book, you talked about six principles: chase your curiosity.

看到这里我停了一下，心想：天啊，我对太多东西都感兴趣了。

And this is where I paused because I'm like, Okay, I'm curious about so many things.

这个热点、那个热点，一个接一个。

There's this hype and that hype.

我想学这个、做那个，样样都想试试。

I want to study this and do this.

那你怎么判断，哪个好奇心值得你坚持多年，最终变成你的事业呢？

How do you pick out curiosity that you can push for years and it becomes your career?

没错，这里面有很多门道。

Yeah, there's a whole bunch.

你提到的‘追随好奇心’这一章，我专门研究过这个领域里最好的做法，一共有十多种练习方法，都是我从那些做过深入研究的专家那里借鉴来的。

That chapter that you mentioned, Chase, your curiosity, I went out and studied all the best practices in the field and there's like 10 different exercises you can run to try and that I borrowed from these other great people that have done the research.

兴趣爱好就是一个很重要的方面。

Know, hobbies are a big one.

书里讲了很多例子，有人把爱好变成了职业，还取得了很大成功。

There's a lot of stories in the book of people that turn hobbies into careers and became very successful.

是的。

Yeah.

比如，你在家空闲时一直在做的那件事。

Like if there's this thing that you're doing in your spare time at home.

我当工程师那两年半，读了彼得·林奇的《战胜华尔街》，晚上回家就开始研究股票、做交易。

When I was an engineer for two and a half years, I read this book, One Up on Wall Street by Peter Lynch, and I started studying stocks and trading stocks when I got home at night.

我当时没想，这会不会是个信号，但其实那就是。

I didn't say to myself, oh, maybe that's a sign, but it was, right?

后来我就去了华尔街工作。

And I ended up going to work on Wall Street.

所以你要留意那些真正吸引你的事情。

And so look out for whatever it is that fascinates you.

别觉得自己非得马上找到答案，别有压力。

Don't feel stuck, like, or don't feel like you have to have an answer to the question.

有些人直到三十岁、四十岁才找到真正适合自己的方向。

Some of these people didn't find their perfect fit until they're 30 or 40.

所以多尝试几次，别怕犯错。

And so get as many shots on goal.

先找一份工作，哪怕不确定是不是最终目标，也没关系。

Like it's fine to take a job where you don't know if that's it.

但每隔一两年，就问问自己：这就是我要的吗？

But wake up and ask yourself every year or so, is this it?

这是我这辈子想一直做的事吗？

Is this what I want to do the rest of my life?

我职业生涯的前两份工作，干了几年后，都会问自己一个问题：三十年后，我还会做这个吗？

I had a mental exercise that I did in my first two stops in my career where I, a couple of years in, I said, Do I see myself doing this thirty years from now?

然后想想，我对这个想法感觉怎么样。

And how do I feel about that?

就是一种自我反思。

Just a kind of a reflection.

在前两种情况下，我很快就意识到答案是否定的。

And in the first two cases, I got to a place where I immediately knew the answer was no.

我很喜欢这个问题。

I love that question.

然后你就会开始寻找别的方向。

And then you start looking for something else.

贝索斯也提过类似的概念，叫‘最小化遗憾框架’，他说，想象一下你80岁时的自己，会怎么给你职业选择提建议。

Bezos had a similar thing he called the regret minimization framework, where he said, imagine your 80 year old self giving you advice on helping with a career choice.

对。

Yeah.

在某些方面，这和我说的很像。

And it's similar in some ways.

你只是在时间中不断回望和思考。

You're just reflecting over time.

是的。

Yeah.

当你研究那些对工作不满意的人时，数据显示大约十分之六都是这样。

And when you study those people who are not happy with their jobs, apparently it's six out of 10.

对吧？

Right?

对。

Yeah.

你觉得他们犯的最大的错误是什么？

What do you think was the number one mistake that they made?

是因为在追逐金钱吗？

Were they chasing money?

如果你想在人工智能时代保持领先，记得在你常用的平台关注《硅谷女孩》播客。

If you want to stay ahead in the AI era, follow Silicon Valley Girl podcast on your favorite platform.

每周更新，内容涵盖人工智能、职业发展，以及如何不被时代甩在身后。

New episode every week on AI, careers, and how to not get left behind.

我觉得是这样。

I think so.

我的意思是，追求金钱，或者只是随大流——我们其实做过一项调查，问人们：如果你能回到过去，重新开始你的职业生涯，你会选择不一样的路吗？

I mean, chasing money or just doing like, we actually, we did a survey where we asked people if you could go back in time and start your career over again, would you do something different?

六成的人回答会。

Six out of 10 said yes.

然后我们接着问他们：你在做决定时，主要考虑的是什么？

And then we would ask them, what did you use in the decision making?

比如你上大学时，教授跟你说：‘你会计考了A，应该往这个方向走。’

And you know, it might be you're at college and a professor tells you, oh, you should go into this because you made an A on an accounting exam or something.

父母也一样，有些文化里，父母会说：‘你必须当医生，必须当律师。’于是你就这么走上了这条路。

Your parents, there are certain cultures where parents are like, You got to be a doctor, you got to be a lawyer, and you end up in that path.

其实有好多方式会让你走上一条路，而这条路根本不是你问过自己：‘我真正想用一生去做的事是什么？’之后做出的选择。

Like, there's a bunch of different ways you could end up in a pathway where it wasn't an exercise of you saying, What is it that I would love to spend my life doing?

对。

Yeah.

总的来说，我觉得这些父母和顾问都是出于好意。

And so as a whole, I think many of these parents and counselors are very well intentioned.

我不认为他们是故意要犯错。

I don't think they're out to make a mistake.

很多人担心孩子未来的经济保障。

A lot of them are worried about the economic stability of the child.

完全没错。

100%.

当你自己成了父母，这种想法就怎么也挥之不去。

As you become a parent, like, it's this thing that you can't really get out of your head.

那有没有哪些工作，你能举出三个最不容易被AI取代的，和三个最可能被取代的？

So are there any jobs that you would name, like top three jobs that are AI resistant and top three jobs that won't make it?

在我看来，最先受到威胁的工作，都是那些大型语言模型特别擅长处理的领域。

Well, the jobs that seem to me the earliest threats are ones where so the large language model is really good at language.

比如翻译、法律助理这类工作

And so translation, paralegals, like these

你知道吗，我一开始就是搞语言的。

You know, I started with language.

那可是我整个职业生涯的起点。

That was my whole career.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这些工作本质上就是把文字重新组织一下而已。

I mean, those things are really, you know, we're just organizing text in a different way.

这些变化其实已经在发生了。

Those are already, it's already happening.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得有些工作，我有个挺有意思的观点：几乎任何工作都可以看作是一种手艺活。

You know, I think some of the jobs that, I have this interesting theory where almost any job you could think of it as being an artisan.

我们都觉得米开朗基罗是手艺人，伟大的运动员也是手艺人，但你会觉得律师也是吗？

We all think of Michelangelo as an artisan, and we probably think of a great athlete as an artisan, but do you think of a lawyer that way?

或者说，那些领域里最顶尖的人到底在做什么呢？

Or do you think of, and I would say the best in those And fields probably so what is it they do?

他们对各自领域的细微差别有很深的理解。

They understand nuance in their field quite a bit.

我觉得人工智能在处理这种细微差别上并不擅长。

And I think AI is not particularly good at nuance.

很多人有个观点，我觉得挺有道理的：未来人与人之间的关系会变得更重要。

A lot of people have a theory that I think is reasonable that human relationships will matter way more.

你有自己的人脉圈吗？

So, do you have a strong peer network?

你有靠谱的导师圈吗？

Do you have a strong mentor network?

你有没有一个广泛的人脉网络，别人了解你、找你帮忙，知道你能做什么？我觉得这特别重要。

Do you have a strong network in general of people who come to you or know you or what you're capable of, I think that's super helpful.

你还认为有哪些其他职业正在消失？

Any other markers that you think are dying?

正在消失。

Dying.

嗯，编程就是一个例子，现在外面有很多疑问。

Well, I mean, coding is one where there's a lot of questions that are out there.

我觉得，代码其实比自然语言更严格、更受限。

And I think once again, you know, the thing about code is it's actually a stricter, more constrained version of language than language itself.

对吧？

Right?

那你觉得我们以后需要的程序员会变少吗？

So do you think we'll need less coders?

当然，如果你只是埋头写代码，那种基础的编码工作，确实可能会减少。但如果你懂结构，知道怎么判断算法优劣，或者怎么优化代码提升效率——这些能力还是会很值钱。

Certainly, if you were the person who was just grinding, writing out code, if you were the person that understood, you know, structurally how one algorithm is better than the other or how to reduce code to make something more efficient, like those things I think will still be valuable.

但我还是要说，在AI时代，当一名优秀的软件工程师，最好的方式就是搞懂所有这些新AI工具是怎么运作的。

But I would go back to saying the best way to be a software engineer in AI world is to be the one that knows how all the new AI tools work.

要成为你们团队里主动拥抱这些工具的人，而不是躲着它们。

Like to be the person in your org that's leaning into them, not out.

就像你是个用拖拉机和无人机的农民，肯定能碾压那个还用锄头和驴的农民，对吧？

Like you're if you're a farmer with a tractor and a drone thing and all this stuff, you're going to run over a farmer with a hoe and a donkey, right?

完全没错。

Totally.

你直接就把他们甩得没影了。

You're just going to blow them away.

所以你得用这种眼光来看待这些工具。

And so you have to think that way about these tools.

这个工具出来得真快，我承认，但你得真正沉浸进去用它。

This one came out as fast, I admit, but you have to roll around in it.

咱们聊聊这些工具吧。

Let's talk about the tools.

你一开始说，在这个AI时代，要成为最擅长利用AI的自己。

You said at the beginning of our podcast become the best AI enabled version of Yes.

能说说你是怎么 setup 的吗？

Can you talk about the setup?

因为我们用ChatGPT来搜索，用Nano Banana生成图片，做些基础操作，对吧？

Because we're using ChatGPT for search, we use Nano Banana to generate images, do basic stuff, right?

我们还会用它来规划旅行。

We maybe plan our trips.

接下来该怎么做呢？

What is the next step?

人们该怎么升级自己的工具配置？

What should people be doing to advance their setup?

比如我上个播客的时候，会提前想：我要去见这个人，他们要聊这本书，我得准备点什么。

Even like when I come on a podcast, can say, I'm going to go see this person do this podcast, and we're going to talk about the book.

我该预判他们会问哪些问题？

What questions should I anticipate?

你用得越多，就越能想到还能做什么。

And it's like, the more you play with it, the more you think about what's possible to do.

昨天在NYU，学生提问时，有一半的问题我其实都想说：你直接问ChatGPT不就行了？

And I was at NYU yesterday and the students were asking questions at the end and like half the questions they ask, I'd be like, Well, you could ask me that, but I'd probably put that into chat GBT.

人们根本没意识到，你能这么依赖它。

Like, I just they don't think like, people don't realize how much you can lean on it.

我觉得你越熟悉它，就越会自然地用起来。

And that's where I think the more you roll around on it, the more you start to use it.

我受邀去做一个TED演讲，所以刚准备了一个新内容。

And I've been invited to go give a TED Talk, so I have a new one on that.

是啊，我打算去。

Are you going to I think it'll Yeah.

我也会到场。

Be in I'll be there too.

太好了。

Cool.

我会去看你的演讲。

I'll watch your talk.

好的。

All right.

你可以同时进行研究、原型设计和头脑风暴。

And I'm you can research and prototype and ideate like simultaneously.

昨晚我想到一个新主题，今天一早就开始动手，想找出二十个例子来支撑这个想法，好让内容更完善。

I came up with a new theme last night, kicked off something this morning because I wanted it to find like 20 examples of this idea I had and wanted to talk about to to make it better.

对。

Mhmm.

我还没看结果，不过待会儿就看。

And I haven't looked at the results yet, but I will.

所以你基本上是同时在做四个项目？

So so you're basically living in in quad project?

是的。

Yeah.

那些是用ChatGPT做的，不过没错。

I mean, I those were chat GBT, but yeah.

但你当然也可以。

But you could yeah.

我的意思是，你最好全都试一遍。

I mean, you're probably better to try them all.

现在你用AI做的哪件事，是以前你亲自动手做过、但现在再也不想回去了？

What what is something that you do with AI now that you've done manually before and now you can never do it manually?

几乎任何信息查询都是这样。

Almost any information query whatsoever.

比起自己去查，感觉用AI方便多了。

Like, it just seems easier than than looking it up.

就算跟维基百科比，也能直接得到答案，不用一页页翻。

And even, like, compared to a Wikipedia search or something, like, you can just get straight to the information versus, like, scrolling through this thing.

对。

Yeah.

我还没 setup 一个 ClawBot，也没让它替我自动处理任务。

I haven't set up a ClawBot yet or started getting it to do agentic work on my behalf.

我确实该弄一个了。

I probably should.

对。

Mhmm.

我之所以举手退出风投，是因为我厌倦了那种为了成功必须时刻保持焦虑的心态。

Part of raising my hand and and stepping away from VC is is because I grew tired of, like, that constant FOMO that's required to be successful.

是的。

Yeah.

真厉害。

Wow.

没错。

Yeah.

这话说得真到位。

That's a strong one.

咱们聊聊普遍情况吧，你以前投资过很多创业者，你觉得软件行业已经没落了吗？

Let's talk about, just in general, for people who are building, since you were investing in them, do you think software is dead?

我不这么认为。

I don't.

为什么？

Why?

有些软件确实可能面临威胁，比如那些只是重新排版文字、生成图片之类的，如果只做这些，确实容易被取代。

There are certain and look, I think there are certain types of software that may be if once again, if all the software did was reorient text or, you know, create an image or whatever, it could be under threat.

再说，目前的AI在做数据库操作和数学计算方面还远远不够好。

The other thing is, like, quite frankly, it's not really good at being a database and it's not great at math yet.

现在确实出现了新方法，能让AI写代码。

And there's new techniques where they're getting it to write code.

但你有没有遇到过，做查询时出错的情况？

But how many times have you done a query where there's an error?

而且，不同类型的软件，你肯定不希望它在你的客户管理系统里乱写错误代码。

And once again, depending on the type of software, you wouldn't want it writing errors into your CRM.

完全同意。

Absolutely.

有时候我会想象未来，那时候我主要跟我的爪爪或者ChatGPT聊天。

Sometimes I think about the future where now I mostly talk to my claw at or Chad GPT.

如果我直接让它帮我做个应用来解决某个具体问题，又不用安装任何软件，会怎么样？

What if I just ask it to create an app for me to solve some particular problem and I don't need to install any apps?

想想那些日常用的手机应用吧。

Think about consumer apps.

对吧？

Right?

比如说健身追踪这类应用，我就没怎么见过。

I don't know of, like, a fitness tracker.

是的。

Yeah.

语言学习也是一样。

Language learning.

对吧？

Right?

还有考试备考。

Exam prep.

SAT 刚刚在 Gemini 上发布了。

SAT was just released on Gemini.

所以我一直在想，整个市场可能都要消失了。

So I'm thinking, like, there's this whole market that's probably gonna disappear.

这有可能。

That could be true.

确实有道理。

That could be right.

但这种事以前也发生过。

But that's happened in the past.

以前有不少软件公司占据着巨大市场份额，现在却都不见了。

There used to be software companies that had massive market share that don't exist anymore.

创业者们该怎么思考自己该做什么产品呢？

How should entrepreneurs be thinking about what they're building?

每个优秀的创业者都明白，新技术浪潮会带来大量机会。

Every great entrepreneur recognizes that new technology waves create a ton of opportunity.

硅谷一遇到这种技术浪潮就特别兴奋，原因就在于，你随便找一个风投，他们满嘴说的都是人工智能，对吧？

And one of the reasons Silicon Valley gets so excited when these waves happen, I mean, single venture capitalist I'm sure that you talk to, all they want to talk about is AI, right?

我觉得他们已经忘了自己投过的那些非人工智能的公司了。

I think they've forgotten about the companies they invested in that aren't AI.

他们现在就只愿意谈这个。

That's all they want to talk about.

他们这么关注，是因为每当新技术崛起、新公司有机会取代老牌企业的时候，大家都心知肚明。

And the reason they have so much attention to it is because the time when new companies, you know, step around and take market share for incumbents are on these transitions and everyone knows it.

我这么说可能听起来很啰嗦，但你真得亲自去试试、去玩一玩。

And so I'm going to sound so redundant, you got to get out there and play with it.

我要提醒你所有的听众，现在想为非人工智能的项目融到风投，简直难上加难。

I warn all of your listeners that it's very hard right now to raise venture capital for non AI plays.

我建议你把判断标准和现实分开，回到那个‘影响力圈’的概念来看。

I like to separate whether you're judging that from the reality, go back to this circle of influence thing.

现实就是，目前绝大多数风投根本不愿意见非人工智能的创业团队。

The reality is most venture capitalists won't take a meeting with a non AI company right now.