Silicon Valley Girl: AI, Tech and Career Growth - 诺贝尔奖得主:量子计算对人工智能、比特币和您的数据有何影响 | 约翰·马丁尼斯 封面

诺贝尔奖得主:量子计算对人工智能、比特币和您的数据有何影响 | 约翰·马丁尼斯

Nobel Prize Winner: What Quantum Computing Does to AI, Bitcoin, and Your Data | John Martinis

本集简介

AI之后会发生什么?约翰·马丁尼斯——诺贝尔奖得主、谷歌量子计算突破背后的科学家——说,大多数人关注的威胁方向错了。 他是特朗普新成立的技术顾问委员会中唯一的科学家,其他成员包括扎克伯格、谢尔盖·布林和黄仁勋。他对未来走向有着截然不同的判断。 本期内容:为什么量子计算机可能破解比特币加密、哪些资产已面临风险、为何整个互联网在未来十年内必须更换加密协议——以及为何如今投资量子硬件,就像在人们还不知道GPU用途之前押注Nvidia显卡一样。 如果你正在思考AI时代下的职业、储蓄或商业——这一期将彻底改变你的认知。 主题:量子计算、AI未来、比特币加密、网络安全、科技职业、未来工作、科技投资、诺贝尔奖、硅谷 更多来自硅谷女孩的内容: 订阅我的通讯:⁠⁠https://siliconvalleygirl.beehiiv.com/⁠⁠ Instagram:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/siliconvalleygirl/ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ YouTube:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@SiliconValleyGirl⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠linkedin.com/in/marinamogilko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ X:⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/siliconvalleymm⁠

双语字幕

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Speaker 0

你现在正在培养的这些技能,是为AI时代准备的,但它们都有保质期。

The skills you're building right now are for the AI era, but they have an expiration date.

Speaker 0

每隔几年,就会冒出个新东西,彻底改变我们能做什么。

Every few years, something comes along that changes what's actually possible.

Speaker 0

互联网不是让图书馆变快了,而是让它们变得无关紧要了。

The internet didn't make libraries faster, it made them irrelevant.

Speaker 0

AI不是让搜索引擎更好用了,而是彻底改变了找答案的方式。

AI didn't make search engines better it made a completely different way of finding answers.

Speaker 0

现在,又有个东西即将登场,可大多数人连听都没听过。

And now we have something that's coming that most people haven't even heard of yet.

Speaker 0

它对计算本身造成的冲击,也是一样的。

And it does the same thing to computing itself.

Speaker 0

2024年12月,谷歌发布了一款量子处理器,几分钟就算完了那个题。

In December 2024, Google unveiled a quantum processor that completed a calculation in minutes.

Speaker 0

那个题,用现在的超级计算机算,得花比宇宙年龄还长的时间。

That exact calculation that would take today's supercomputers longer than the age of the universe.

Speaker 0

这根本就是另一种类型的机器。

And that's a different category of a machine.

Speaker 0

事情到这里就开始有点吓人了。

And here's where it gets a little scary.

Speaker 0

几天前,谷歌又发布了一篇新论文。

A few days ago, Google published another paper.

Speaker 0

他们说,量子计算机只要九分钟就能破解比特币加密,而且用的资源还不到原来估计的二十分之一。

They say quantum computers could crack Bitcoin encryption in nine minutes, using 20 times fewer resources than anyone thought.

Speaker 0

我本人持有加密货币,也特别关心量子计算对日常生活的影响,所以我想搞清楚这些问题。

As someone who holds crypto and is curious about the implications of quantum on my day to day life, I wanted to ask questions.

Speaker 0

今年一月我在达沃斯,见到了那个让这一切成为可能的人——他的发现是85年前做的。

So I was in Davos this January, and I met the man whose 85 discovery all of this possible.

Speaker 0

他刚拿了诺贝尔奖,特朗普总统还把他请进了科学顾问委员会,和扎克伯格、布林、黄仁勋这些人坐在一起。

He just won the Nobel Prize for it, and President Donald Trump just put him on his Science Advisory Council, alongside with Mark Zuckerberg, Sergey Brin, and Jensen Huang.

Speaker 0

他是那个房间里唯一的科学家,他给我画了个时间表:五年到十年。

He's the only scientist in that room, and he gave me a timeline: five to ten years.

Speaker 0

要明白这对你职业的影响,你得先搞懂他到底发现了什么。

And to understand why this matters for your career, you need to understand what he actually discovered.

Speaker 0

咱们来听听约翰·马丁尼斯怎么说。

Let's talk to John Martinis.

Speaker 0

我想跟你聊聊你那个发现。

I wanted to talk to you about something that you discovered.

Speaker 0

我对量子物理一窍不通,但我的理解是,你扔个球撞墙,它肯定会弹回来,对吧?

So I don't have any experience in quantum physics, but the way I understood it, if you throw a ball against the wall, it bumps.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

没错。

Right.

Speaker 0

但你发现电子居然能不穿过墙,就直接跑到墙的另一边去。

But you discovered that an electron can pass the wall without passing.

Speaker 0

它能同时出现在墙的两边。

It can be on both sides.

Speaker 1

对。

Yes.

Speaker 1

所以理论上,那个球其实不是只能撞回来,有时候还真能直接穿墙过去。

So it's possible that the ball, you know, the wall can tunnel through the wall and not just bounce off, but every once in a while actually tunnel through it.

Speaker 1

我常这么说,大家一般觉得量子力学是研究原子、分子这些微观粒子的物理。

And the way I like to say it is that, you know, people are accustomed to quantum mechanics as the physics of atoms and molecules and microscopic particles.

Speaker 1

但我们做了一个这么大的电路,这个宏观电路里的电流和电压,居然也完全遵循量子力学,真真切切地表现出隧穿效应。

In here, we made electrical circuit about that big and the currents and voltages in that big macroscopic electrical circuit is actually obeying quantum mechanics and showing this tunneling phenomenon.

Speaker 0

那一刻,量子力学才从理论变成了现实。

That's the moment quantum stopped being just theory.

Speaker 0

他证明了这玩意儿在机器里真能跑起来,这才开启了所有后续的发展。

He proved it works in machines, and that's what started everything.

Speaker 0

在那之前,科学家们都以为量子力学只存在于原子内部。

So before this discovery, scientists thought quantum mechanics only lived inside atoms.

Speaker 0

他证明了这在机器里也能实现。

He proved it works in machines.

Speaker 0

那这带来了什么突破?

So what does that unlock?

Speaker 1

真正发生的是,这个发现后来被不断拓展——这正是它获得诺贝尔奖的原因。

What really happened with this idea, and frankly, it's the reason for the Nobel Prize, is that we took this discovery and then people built on it, built on it.

Speaker 1

接着,量子比特和量子计算机的概念出现了,而这种物理现象正好完美契合了这个方向。

And then the idea of qubits and building a quantum computer came along, which natural, or this physics naturally fit into this.

Speaker 1

这其实催生了一个全新的研究、创新与技术领域,这些实验最终发展成了今天的样子,所以它的意义才如此重大。

So it's really kind of the creation of a field of discovery and innovation and technology that these experiments got developed into and why it's important to take.

Speaker 0

对,说到量子计算机,很多人第一反应觉得是科幻片里的东西。

Yeah, when you say quantum computer, a lot of people think science fiction.

Speaker 0

对于那些不了解量子计算如何影响甚至将来会如何影响日常生活的普通人,你能举两三个实际例子吗?

For people who don't know how it affects their daily lives and might affect their daily lives, can you give two or three examples where quantum computers really make a difference?

Speaker 1

我常举的例子是材料、分子或化学反应的设计。

The idea I like to talk about is for doing design of materials or molecules or chemistry.

Speaker 1

现在大家都知道,我们用电脑来设计厨房布局、制造机械零件、设计电路,这些都很常见了。

And people are very familiar right now how you use computers to design your kitchen, make a mechanical part, design electronic circuit, other things.

Speaker 1

所以你可以先在虚拟环境中构建它。

So you can build it virtually.

Speaker 1

等你真去现实中制造的时候,先在数字世界里模拟要便宜得多,效果也更好。

And then when you go and you build it in the real world, building it virtually in the digital is a lot cheaper and better.

Speaker 1

你还能权衡各种利弊。

And you can think about the trade offs.

Speaker 1

量子计算机能让你对分子、特别是某些原子级的分子做这种模拟。

Well, a quantum computer would enable you to do that with molecules and, you know, certain atomic molecules.

Speaker 0

那药物研发呢?

It's just moving What about drug discovery?

Speaker 0

我觉得如果我们能——

I feel like if we're-

Speaker 1

对,药物研发也是同样的道理。

Yes, and the same kind of thing with drug discovery.

Speaker 1

如果你能精准模拟分子,就有可能从中获得一些关键洞见。

So if you can simulate molecules really well, then you can maybe even just gain some insight.

Speaker 1

我的理解是,比如在药物研发上,这事儿成本特别高。

I mean, what I've been told is that, for example, to drug discovery, it's very expensive to do this.

Speaker 1

如果你能稍微提升一点对药物作用机制的理解,哪怕只提高1%或几个百分点,那价值就大了,能赚不少钱。

And if you can improve, let's just say your insight on how the drug works by 1% or a few percent, that's really valuable and could be worth a lot of money.

Speaker 1

我们没必要彻底推翻重来。

So it's not like we have to totally change things.

Speaker 1

但我觉得,哪怕只是些小改进、更深入的洞察,对企业来说也特别有价值。

But I think just improvements and better insights can be quite valuable for companies.

Speaker 0

要是往前看十年,你觉得要是量子计算普及了、人人都能用,我们的生活会变成什么样?

But if we go ten years forward, what do you think our life is going look like if quantum computing is everywhere and accessible to everyone?

Speaker 0

那时候世界会有什么不一样?

How's it going to change?

Speaker 1

这事儿其实涉及两个方面。

So there's kind of two things involved in this.

Speaker 1

首先,我们得先把硬件做得更好。

First of all, we have to build better hardware.

Speaker 1

然后我们还得在算法上下功夫,得让算法更聪明一点,诸如此类。

And then we have to be, you know, think about algorithms, be smarter with the algorithms and the like.

Speaker 1

但现在这儿还有一段差距。

And there's just kind of a gap now.

Speaker 1

有人觉得这差距不大,也有人觉得差距挺大,但不管怎样,我们都得把这缺口补上。

And maybe some people think there's not much of a gap and other people think there's a big gap, but we need to close the gap.

Speaker 1

而我公司正在做的,就是打造更好的硬件,这就是其中一环。

And that's building better hardware, which is what I'm doing in my company.

Speaker 1

我们这么做,其实也有很多其他公司在做同样的事。

We're trying to do that, as well as many other people.

Speaker 1

然后大家还得更动脑筋,更机灵一点。

And then people have to be more clever.

Speaker 1

有意思的是,硬件越强,就越能更好地测试算法,也更容易摸清到底该怎么调整才能让它真正跑起来。

And what's interesting is you build better hardware, you can test out the algorithms better, and then you can maybe discover exactly what you need to get it to work right.

Speaker 1

所以现在是个特别有意思的阶段,大家都在拼命把这两方面凑到一块儿,争取让它真正运转起来。

So it's a very interesting time where everyone's really trying to push these things together and get it to work properly.

Speaker 0

是的,这市场看起来增长得特别快。

Yeah, it feels like it's a really fast growing market.

Speaker 0

根据《量子内参》的报告,未来十年它将创造一万亿美元的经济价值。

According to Quantum Insider report, it's going to generate $1,000,000,000,000 in economic value in the next ten years.

Speaker 1

这算是个挺乐观的预测了,但我们觉得挺有道理的,说不定真能实现。

That's an optimistic scenario that we It's find useful things to quite possible that will happen.

Speaker 1

我特别喜欢这种预测,因为当我们努力去做的时候……

And certainly, I like those kind of forecasts because when we try

Speaker 0

你真打算创办一家公司吗?

to Is it raise a really company?

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

我们公司的目标其实是造一台通用的、能纠错的量子计算机,不是现在大家搞的几百个物理量子比特,而是可能需要上百万个物理量子比特,让错误率降下来、系统稳定运行——那时候真正的价值才会被释放出来,才是长期的潜力所在。

But our idea is that what we're really trying to do in our company is make a general purpose error corrected quantum computer and not at hundreds of physical qubits, what are people now, but you may need a million physical qubits operating the way where the errors go down and it works properly, where I think the real value will be unlocked and the long term value.

Speaker 1

当然,如果未来几年有人能做到,那已经能带来可观的回报了。

Certainly, people do this in the next few years, you'll get good value.

Speaker 1

但你提到的这些数字,我们的观点是,你得把这台大型计算机造出来,而且还得造得特别好。

But those kind of numbers you're talking about, our thesis is you're going to build this big computer and make it very well.

Speaker 0

所以他就像当年詹森·黄押注GPU一样,押在了硬件上,那时候谁都不知道GPU到底能干嘛。

So he's betting on hardware the way Jensen Huang bet on GPUs before anyone knew what they were for.

Speaker 0

自从我听说量子计算以来,这个问题就一直在我脑子里盘旋。

Now that's the question that has been on my mind since I heard about quantum computing.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

那对于所有正在关注、想在这个领域创业的人来说,你有什么建议?

What what do you think for all the entrepreneurs who are watching who want to start building something in this field?

Speaker 0

在量子计算领域,最让人兴奋的市场有哪些?

What are the most exciting markets when it comes to quantum computing?

Speaker 0

是该去搞硬件,还是去搞算法应用?

Is it building hardware or is it like applying the algorithms?

Speaker 1

其实现在很多人在算法上下了很大功夫,因为开发软件和算法的成本相对低得多。

Well, there's a lot of effort into algorithms because building software and algorithms is a relatively low cost.

Speaker 0

你

You

Speaker 1

不用买。

don't have to buy.

Speaker 1

所以,我们公司干的恰恰是件错事——拼命投入硬件研发。

So our company is doing the exact wrong thing, which is investing in building hardware really well.

Speaker 1

但好处是,只要你真能把硬件做出来、做成功,就能变成一家极其成功的公司。

Now, the nice thing is, is that once you do that, you can be and you're successful, you can be an extremely successful company.

Speaker 1

我就常拿英伟达当例子,虽然他们跟台积电合作,但人家对计算机设计和系统整合的掌控力,让他们变得无比值钱。

And I like to think about Nvidia, although they're partnering with TSMC, but their knowledge of designing the computers and putting together the systems have made them extremely valuable company.

Speaker 1

我们觉得,硬件这块,我们也能做到,也能证明这一点。

And our view on hardware is that it's possible for us to do that, prove that too.

Speaker 1

所以我们选择走最难的路,死磕硬件。

So we're taking the hard approach and focusing on the hardware.

Speaker 1

至于我们的具体观点是,你看现在超导量子比特的发展现状——说实话,我本人就参与了推动这一切的技术发明。

And then our particular thesis is that if you look at superconducting qubits right now and where they are, I mean, I helped invent all the things to get there.

Speaker 1

我觉得这挺好的,但说到底还是有点学术味儿,甚至像是手工打造的。

And I think it's great, but it's still kind of a little bit, I would say, academic or maybe even artisanal fabrication.

Speaker 1

我们想用更成熟的半导体工具和制造工艺,来提升产量,把量子比特做得更好。

And that we're trying to use much more established semiconductor tools and fabrication process and the like in order to scale up and make the qubits better.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

说到市场,你觉得哪些领域会被改变得最彻底?

And when it comes to markets, what do you think are the markets that are going to be transformed the most?

Speaker 0

我们聊了医疗和金融,还有别的吗?

We talked about health care, finance, any other

Speaker 1

所有领域都会被影响,现在大家都在往这个方向努力。

It's all of And the hear people working on that.

Speaker 1

但我特别欣赏的是,我们对怎么建造它有非常清晰的想法。

But I like that we have very definite ideas on how to build it.

Speaker 1

让我来给一些硅谷的人解释一下这个思路。

So let me I can explain this for maybe some of the Silicon Valley types.

Speaker 1

我特别喜欢彼得·蒂尔的《从零到一》这本书。

I really love Peter Thiel's book Zero to One.

Speaker 1

对。

Okay.

Speaker 1

某种程度上,这本书其实说出了我整个职业生涯的思路。

And that kind of, in some sense, explained my career.

Speaker 1

我是个非常明确的乐观主义者。

So I am very much a definite optimist.

Speaker 1

我想知道到底该去造什么。

I want to know what to build.

Speaker 1

我想搞清楚该造什么才能真正有用。

I want to know what to build to make it useful.

Speaker 1

那篇论文说的正是这个事儿。

And that's what that paper was all about.

Speaker 1

现在这个领域里,有很多人是模糊的乐观主义者。

Now, there's a lot of people in this field who are indefinite optimists.

Speaker 1

实际上,美国大多数人都是这样。

In fact, most people in The United States are.

Speaker 1

他们脑子里想的也都是你提到的那些点子。

And they have all the ideas like you're talking about.

Speaker 1

我觉得这挺好的。

And I think that's great.

Speaker 1

有人在推动这些,我特别高兴。

I'm glad people are pushing that.

Speaker 1

我自己的思维方式,还有我一直成功的方法,就是死死盯住一件具体该做的事。

My particular way my mind works and what's always been successful is to really focus in on something definite you have to do.

Speaker 1

不过我也很清楚,你要是搞创业,很可能得调整方向,考虑别的东西。

However, I'm very well aware you're in a startup company, you'll probably have to pivot and think about different things.

Speaker 1

等这些想法真落地了,我们很乐意去调整。

And we'd be happy to do that once those ideas come to fruition.

Speaker 1

但我唯一确定的是,我们得做出更好的量子比特,还得让它们能规模化。

But the one thing I know for sure is we have to make better qubits and we have to make it scale.

Speaker 0

我们需要硬件。

We need the hardware.

Speaker 1

我们确实需要硬件。

We need the hardware.

Speaker 1

所以不管发生什么,这都是我们一定要做的事。

So that's what we're doing no matter what happens.

Speaker 0

我也这么觉得。

I think so.

Speaker 0

这个问题我一直挺纠结的。

This question has been bothering me for a while.

Speaker 0

我觉得你最懂这个,得问问你。

I think you're the right person to ask.

Speaker 0

量子计算会摧毁加密货币吗?

Is quantum computing going to break cryptocurrencies?

Speaker 1

我们公司的CEO是这方面的专家,我尽量把这事儿说清楚。

So my the CEO of my company is an expert here, and I'm going hopefully represent it well enough.

Speaker 1

我的理解是,如果你手里有一些早期的加密货币,它们的编码方式比较容易被破解。

My understanding is if you have some of the older cryptocurrency that was encoded in a way that could be broken.

Speaker 1

但一些新版本的加密货币,加密强度要高得多。

But some of the newer versions, it's a little bit stiffer encryption.

Speaker 0

比特币是最老的吗?

Is that Bitcoin the oldest?

Speaker 1

依我回忆,应该就是比特币。

I think this is Bitcoin, as I recall.

Speaker 0

所以那个是——

So that one's-

Speaker 1

然后你可以把老的比特币拿出来,Mhmm。

And then you can take your old Bitcoin Mhmm.

Speaker 1

再重新加密一下,让它变得更安全。

And, you know, pull it out and then re encrypt it to make it make it better.

Speaker 1

哦。

Oh.

Speaker 1

所以你可以把它搞定。

So you can make it Okay.

Speaker 1

但有很多老比特币还没人认领。

But there's a lot of Bitcoin that's kind of unclaimed that's old.

Speaker 0

对。

Mhmm.

Speaker 1

这可是笔巨款。

And it's a lot of money.

Speaker 0

哦,有意思。

Oh, interesting.

Speaker 0

所以量子计算能破解这些。

So quantum computing breaks into that.

Speaker 1

这倒是个量子计算机的市场。

So that is a market for a quantum computer.

Speaker 0

商机啊。

Business idea.

Speaker 1

我们其实早就知道这事了。

Well, so we're aware of that.

Speaker 1

行,这没问题。

Okay, and that's fine.

Speaker 1

现在我CEO的做法我觉得特别负责任,他正在跟美国财政部沟通这件事。

Now, what my CEO is doing, which I think is very responsible, is talking to the US Treasury about this.

Speaker 1

因为财政部肯定担心,要是别的公司,或者那些犯罪组织拿到了这笔钱……

Because the US Treasury is gonna be concerned that if other companies or you know, criminal organizations get get a hold of that money.

Speaker 1

这可不是小数目。

It's a lot of money.

Speaker 0

是啊。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

确实如此。

It is.

Speaker 1

这确实是个大问题。

That, you know, that's a real issue.

Speaker 1

你大概得在某个体系里立些规矩才能做到这一点。

And you probably want to set up laws in some system in order to do that.

Speaker 0

对,因为现在这事儿还是没人管。

Yeah, because it's still very unregulated.

Speaker 0

账本上流通的加密货币实在太多了,

There's so much crypto on ledgers or

Speaker 1

没错,问题就在这儿——大家喜欢这种没人管的状态,但恰恰因为没人管,一旦有技术能突破它,那就完了。

Yeah, and that's the problem is you have something very unregulated, which people really like, but in some sense that's the Achilles' heel, that because it's unregulated, if some technology can overcome it.

Speaker 1

所以可能得好好想想怎么处理,不过我对这行不太懂。

And so you may, you know, there may need to be some thought on how to, now I'm not an expert here.

Speaker 1

但听你这么一说,挺有启发的。

But no, good to hear perspective.

Speaker 1

我觉得我大概抓住方向了。

I think I'm getting this kind of directionally correct.

Speaker 0

我经常跟那些在搞下一代东西的人聊,都是还没上新闻的。

I talk to the people building what's next before it makes headlines.

Speaker 0

如果这对您有帮助,别忘了订阅这个频道。

If that's useful to you, do not forget to subscribe to this channel.

Speaker 0

你觉得这个时间线大概是多久?

What is the timeline that you think?

Speaker 1

我觉得,五年到十年内建成足够大的量子计算机来实现这一点,是有可能的。

So what I like to say is it's possible in five to ten years to build this big enough quantum computer to do that.

Speaker 1

我说这个,部分是因为这算比较乐观的估计。

Partly I just say that that's kind of an optimistic scenario.

Speaker 1

另一方面,我也想提醒大家:这事可能真会来,得赶紧做好准备——不只是比特币,整个互联网都得在这段时间内完成升级。

And partly I say that is to warn people that, you know, this may be coming and you wanna protect, you know, every, not just Bitcoin, but, you know, the whole internet needs to switch over in this kind of time period.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

有意思的是,我刚参加了个会,IBM 也提了差不多的时间范围。

Now, what's interesting and just I was at a meeting where the IBM kind of quoted similar numbers.

Speaker 1

所以这些说法都挺合理的。

So this is all very reasonable.

Speaker 1

挺有意思的是,谷歌的CEO说三到五年就能实现。

It's funny that at Google, the CEO is is saying three to five years.

Speaker 0

啊,原来如此。

Ah, okay.

Speaker 0

他们这是在催进度呢。

They're trying to push things.

Speaker 1

我觉得他这么讲是因为,作为CEO,做预测时谁都想把数字说得小点,免得落了空。

Well, I think he's pushing because if you're a CEO and you're making a prediction, you wanna you wanna have a lower number because you don't wanna be caught Yeah.

Speaker 1

你知道的,不能没准备好。

You know, without that.

Speaker 1

比如谷歌,至少部分流量已经用上抗量子加密协议了。

But for example, Google already has quantum resistant protocols on at least some of their traffic.

Speaker 1

具体细节我不清楚,但这些大公司早就知道这事,要么已经在保护数据,要么马上就会行动。

I don't know the details, but these big companies already know about it and are protecting their data or will be protecting their data.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

但还有一些像加密货币这样的东西,还有其他一些私有系统,你得提防。

But there's things like crypto that's beyond that and other kind of private systems that you might have to worry about.

Speaker 0

这真有意思。

That was very interesting.

Speaker 0

所以咱们一方面在搞量子计算,另一方面也得赶紧解决保护现有系统的算法问题。

So basically, we're working on quantum computing, but then we also need to work on the algorithms that protect existing systems.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

其实早在90年代,人们就提出了用这种方法破解加密的思路。

And what happened is actually the idea that you can break it with this, it was invented at the 1990s.

Speaker 1

那时候大家就明白了。

People understood that.

Speaker 1

彼得·肖尔那时候就提出来了,90年代初的事。

Peter Shore and then, you know, in the early 1990s.

Speaker 1

政府其实早就明白这事儿了。

And then the government, you know, really has understood this for a long time.

Speaker 1

我说大概十年前,政府就开始认真对待这个问题了。

And I'm going to say about ten, maybe twelve years ago, the government got very serious about this.

Speaker 1

他们意识到,没错,这项技术确实有可能让这一切成为现实。

And they saw that, yeah, okay, the technology maybe could make this happen.

Speaker 1

比如在NIST,他们搞了个大型项目,研究他们所说的‘抗量子加密’,也就是其他加密方式。

And for example, at NIST, they have a big big program that they're looking at what they call quantum safe cryptography, other ways to encode it.

Speaker 1

这一搞就是十年了。

And that's been ten years.

Speaker 1

他们已经设计出不错的算法了。

They have nice algorithms.

Speaker 1

你 basically 可以直接下载这些算法和代码,现在很多人都在据此开发系统。

People, you you can download essentially the algorithm and code and people are building systems to do this.

Speaker 1

所以大家反应挺积极的,市面上早就有现成的解决方案了。

So people have been responding to this well, you can buy solutions here.

Speaker 1

我觉得我们现在的情况还算不错。

And, you know, so I think we're in pretty good state.

Speaker 1

我觉得大家还在继续研究呢。

I think people are still, you know, investigate.

Speaker 1

你知道,密码安全这事儿,得让别人花很长时间去尝试破解,才能确认它真够安全。

You know, part of the thing about the crypto security is people have to try to break it for a long time to make sure that it's really safe.

Speaker 1

其实很多人不知道,RSA并不是绝对破解不了的。

I mean, people don't know that RSA is unbreakable.

Speaker 0

RSA?

RSA?

Speaker 1

当然了。

For sure.

Speaker 1

但他们从实际经验里知道,现在整个系统运行得好好的,没人觉得有人真能破解它。

But they know from practice that, you know, and the way that everything's operating that they don't think anyone has broken it.

Speaker 1

没错。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

所以这事儿得靠时间来验证。

So it needs time to do this.

Speaker 0

你知道吗,你观察的都是极其罕见的现象,还在打造一个完全全新的东西。

You know, you're observing extremely rare events and you're building something that is completely new.

Speaker 0

这有没有改变你对运气、黑天鹅事件的看法?

Has that changed how you think about luck, black swan moments?

Speaker 0

因为你平时在工作中就一直在见证这些事。

Because you're observing them basically in your work.

Speaker 1

我职业生涯里挺奇怪的一点是,我一直在接连做一系列实验,从一个项目跳到另一个。

What's kind of strange in my career is I've been developing a series of experiments and how I've gone from one project to the other.

Speaker 1

我职业生涯里挺搞笑的是,我做完一个项目,结果不知怎么就搞砸了。

And what's kind of funny in my career is I do a project and then somehow it doesn't work out in some way.

Speaker 1

然后我就卡在这儿,心想:得换个事儿干了。

And then I'm stuck wondering, well, I have to do something else.

Speaker 1

接着我就琢磨出另一个特别有意思的方向。

And then I figure out what else to do that's really interesting.

Speaker 1

所以,我换各种主题和项目,从来都不是计划好的,往往都是因为某些奇怪的、甚至挺倒霉的事儿。

So changing all the different topics and projects has always come through some strange event, often kind of a negative event.

Speaker 1

举个例子吧,我后来去了谷歌。

And just to give you an example, I was I went to Google.

Speaker 1

他们给我开的薪水挺高的。

They paid me well.

Speaker 1

我们做了那个量子优越性实验。

We did this quantum supremacy experiment.

Speaker 1

但量子优越性之后,他们想调整团队的管理方式。

And but then at some point after the quantum supremacy, they wanted to change the way they managed the group.

Speaker 1

结果呢,我太不像个‘谷歌人’了,只好离开——这真挺难的,毕竟那项目我从读研时就开始做了。

And essentially, I was not Google y enough to stay at Google, and I had to leave, which was kind of difficult to essentially leave a project you started way back in graduate school.

Speaker 1

不过,离开谷歌之后,我反而能自由地发散思维了:我们之前是这么做的,但有没有更好的、更可扩展的方式?

However, by leaving Google, I was then free to think very creatively and free to think, well, we're building in a certain way, and how do I really want to build this to make it scalable and better and whatever?

Speaker 1

后来我跟联合创始人一起创办了自己的公司,放开手脚去想,还真冒出一堆改进的点子。

And by starting my own company and thinking freely and starting it with the co founders, we were able to come up with a bunch of ideas how to make it better.

Speaker 1

对啊。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

虽然那件事挺伤人的,但我相信很多人都经历过,也许正是这段经历让我和整个领域得以开启新的可能。

And it could be that although that was a very, let's say, traumatic thing, I'm sure other people have gone through this, that may be the best thing for me and the field that I was able to do something new out of it.

Speaker 0

没错。

Absolutely.

Speaker 0

而且我呢

And I'm

Speaker 1

所以呢,这就是其中一件事。

so So, you know, that's one thing.

Speaker 1

这种事我已经遇到好多次了。

And this has happened to me over and over again.

Speaker 1

我慢慢也接受了,人生中这些挫折,有时候反而是好事。

And I kind of have to accept that, you know, that's sometimes these setbacks in life are actually very good for you.

Speaker 1

所以今年挺好的,其实我知道这事快来了,但压根儿给忘了。

So the good thing is this year, I just kind of I knew it was coming up, but I totally forgot about it.

Speaker 1

结果电话打来的时候,我完全没准备。

So when the phone call came, it was a

Speaker 0

是在半夜吗?

Is it like in the middle

Speaker 1

就是半夜啊。

of the night or Middle of the night.

Speaker 1

当时我老婆醒着,听见电话响了,但她想着反正明天再说吧。

Well, and it was my wife was awake and she saw she heard the phone phone ringing, but she thought she'd catch in the morning.

Speaker 1

结果她刚要睡着,一刷邮箱,全是恭喜的消息。

And then she was just going to sleep and she looked at her email and there was all these congratulations.

Speaker 1

那时候都凌晨两点半了。

But that was like, you know, 02:30 in the morning.

Speaker 0

是啊。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

她知道我得睡够觉。

And she knows I need my sleep.

Speaker 1

所以她一直憋到早上六点才告诉我。

So she didn't tell me until about 06:00.

Speaker 1

爸,我还是得睡觉啊。

Dad, Because still I needed my sleep.

Speaker 1

对啊。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

而且当时还有记者往我家跑,想冲进卧室把我叫醒。

And also there were reporters who were coming to that house, and they wanted to wake me up in bed.

Speaker 0

她就把他们挡在外面,说让他好好睡吧。

And she she pushed them away, like, let him bed asleep.

Speaker 1

这怎么行啊。

Way we gonna do that.

Speaker 1

哇。

Wow.

Speaker 1

但我记得她坐在床边,轻轻叫我醒,说:‘有记者来了。’

But I do remember her, like, you know, sitting in the bed and, you know, waking me up gently and saying, hey, there's some reporters.

Speaker 1

嗯,这事我确实记得。

And and, know, I kinda I do.

Speaker 1

现在是十月了。

It's October.

Speaker 1

所以我一打开电脑,就看到我和约翰、米歇尔的那张照片。

So I I just opened my computer and I saw, you know, my picture there with the with John and Michelle.

Speaker 1

那种感觉真的特别不真实,简直不敢相信这事真的发生了。

So that was a very like, it's just you can't believe that it's happening.

Speaker 0

听起来像童话一样。

Sounds like a fairy tale.

Speaker 1

这确实是个童话。

It's a fairy tale.

Speaker 1

我觉得最特别的是,你能有机会参加这样的活动,经历这些难得的时刻。

And what I would say is I think the most interesting part is you get to go to things like this and have these very amazing

Speaker 0

体验。

experiences.

Speaker 0

我真正带走的东西是这样的。

Here's what I actually walked away with.

Speaker 0

摩根大通和谷歌根本没等量子计算准备好。

JPMorgan and Google aren't waiting for quantum to be ready.

Speaker 0

他们已经在实际部署了。

They are already deploying it.

Speaker 0

这场竞赛已经在进行中了,不管你所在的行业有没有意识到。

The race is happening whether your industry knows it or not.

Speaker 0

保护你所有线上活动的加密技术——你的银行、公司数据、聊天信息——都是在量子计算机出现之前设计的。

The encryption protecting everything you do online your bank, your company data, your messages was built before quantum computers existed.

Speaker 0

约翰的预测是:五年到十年。

John's timeline: five to ten years.

Speaker 0

这根本不是什么遥远的问题。

So that's not a distant problem.

Speaker 0

如果你在科技、金融或网络安全领域工作,我觉得我们现在就该谈这个。

If you work in tech, finance, or cybersecurity, this is the conversation I think we should be having right now.

Speaker 0

这周我的通讯里,我梳理了哪些行业现在最脆弱,以及那些行业的人们到底在做些什么。

In my newsletter this week, I mapped out which industries are most exposed right now and what people in those fields are actually doing about it.

Speaker 0

那你怎么为未来做好职业准备呢?

And how can you start adjusting your career for what's to come?

Speaker 0

我的通讯叫《未来防护》。

My newsletter is called Future Proof.

Speaker 0

链接在简介里。

The link is in the description.

Speaker 0

量子计算还有五到十年才来。

Quantum is five to ten years out.

Speaker 0

AI已经是现在进行时了。

AI is right now.

Speaker 0

我采访了一位斯坦福教授,问了他接下来三十天该怎么做。

I talked to a Stanford professor about exactly what to do in the next thirty days.

Speaker 0

这段视频就在这儿屏幕上。

That video is right here on the screen.

Speaker 0

特别实用。

It is very practical.

Speaker 0

看了这个视频,你一定会对AI充满热情,也想赶紧把它用到自己的工作流程里。

It It's will make you excited about AI and excited about introducing it into your workflows.

Speaker 0

下期视频见,谢谢你坚持看到最后。

See you in that episode and thank you for watching this after the very end.

Speaker 0

再见。

Bye.

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