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欢迎收听史密斯周刊讨论节目,这是我们为史密斯周刊研究会员准备的特别节目。
Welcome to Smith Weekly Discussions and occasional program for our members of Smith Weekly Research.
请注意,本节目属于私人讨论,所有内容仅供娱乐和教育目的。
Please note this program is a private discussion, and everything contained herein is for entertainment and educational purposes only.
好了,希望你现在已经舒舒服服地坐好,手里拿着喜欢的饮料,准备享受这场讨论。
With that, we hope you're in a comfortable position along with your favorite beverage to enjoy the discussion.
我们提醒听众查看每期节目附带的节目笔记,以便更好地了解我们的节目运作方式。
We remind our audience to examine our show notes attached to each of our shows to better understand how our program functions.
在开始讨论之前,我们要感谢史密斯周刊的听众们提出的问题,包括乔·G、马克·R、托德·A和加布·F。
Before we get into our discussion, we wanna say thanks for questions coming from our audience of Smith Weekly, including Joe g, Mark r, Todd a, and Gabe f.
今天的节目,我们请来了一位老嘉宾。
On the program today, we've got a returning guest.
斯科特·梅尔比先生再次来到我们节目,带来最新消息。
Mister Scott Melby is back with us to update.
斯科特是铀业特许权公司的总裁兼首席执行官。
Scott is the president and CEO of Uranium Royalty Corp.
这家公司专注于构建全球铀矿资产的版税和流媒体投资组合,采用灵活的财务模式,通过版税、流媒体、承购、股权投资、实物贷款和传统债务工具等方式,协助企业实现生产。
The company is focused on building a portfolio of royalties and streams for uranium assets globally with a flexible financial model to assist companies towards production in the form of royalty, stream offtake, equity investment, physical lending, and conventional debt instruments.
铀版税公司目前正与Sweetwater版税公司进行一项重大交易,后者是一家专注于怀俄明州的私营版税运营商,拥有现有现金流和版税资产。
Uranium Royalty is currently subject to a substantial transaction with Sweetwater Royalties, a private Wyoming focused royalty operator with existing cash flow and royalty assets.
铀版税公司是铀矿领域唯一一家公开上市的纯版税和流媒体公司。
Uranium Royalty is the only publicly listed pure play uranium royalty and stream company in the uranium sector.
铀版税公司在纳斯达克上市,股票代码为UROY,同时也在多伦多证券交易所上市,股票代码为URC。
Uranium Royalty is listed on the NASDAQ under the symbol u r o y and also on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol URC.
斯科特,欢迎回到节目。
Scott, welcome back to the program.
很高兴你能来。
Great to have you here.
安德鲁,能和你以及你的网络在一起总是很愉快。
Andrew, it's always good to be with you and and your network.
事情很多。
Lots going on.
现在核能领域整体都很令人兴奋,尤其是URC这边。
Exciting times in both nuclear more broadly and specifically with URC.
是的,斯科特。
Yeah, Scott.
很高兴再次邀请你,我知道你一直对市场动态了如指掌。
Great to have you back on, and I know you always have a pulse of this market.
铀矿行业是你长期从事的事业,能请到像你这样对这个行业、内部运作以及各种有趣事情有深刻见解和智慧的人,时不时来我们节目给观众更新信息,真是太好了。
This uranium sector has been a long time career of yours, and, it's always great to have a guy with your wisdom and knowledge of this sector and the inner workings and all the fun stuff that happens in the sector, be on our program from time to time to update our audience.
当然,你我在这个行业也是老朋友了,认识斯科特很久了。
And, of course, you and I, good friends in the sector and know Scott for a long time.
每次能一起聊聊、录播客,顺便谈谈铀矿版税,总是很开心。
It's always great to catch up and record these podcasts and talk a little bit of uranium royalty as well.
我们开始吧?
Why don't we kick it off here?
公司这边有一笔重大交易。
Major transaction here for the company.
这个交易是几个月前宣布的,但现在我们终于可以聊聊了。
This was announced a couple months ago, but here we are.
这是你第一次在这个节目上谈论这笔交易。
This is your first time on the program talking about this transaction.
斯科特,给我们讲讲Sweetwater交易的最新进展吧?
Why don't you give us an update here on the Sweetwater transaction, Scott?
另外,对于还不熟悉这笔交易的听众,也请介绍一下交易的核心要点,为什么它对铀业版税来说是个重要的里程碑,以及你预计什么时候能完成。
And also for the audience that is new to this deal, cover off the key features of the deal, why it is important and a great milestone for uranium royalty, and when you would expect it to complete.
好的。
Great.
嗯,这确实是我们正在进行的一项具有变革意义的收购。
Well, it is indeed a transformational acquisition that we're making.
这笔交易已经宣布了一段时间,我们预计在下周股东投票后完成交割。
It has been announced for some time, but we're looking to close the deal after a shareholder vote, next week.
这是一笔价值11亿美元的收购,从Orion Resources和安大略教师退休金计划手中买下Sweetwater的版税权益。
But it's a $1,100,000,000 acquisition of Sweetwater royalties from Orion Resources and Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan.
甜水版税公司本身,本质上就是当年联合太平洋铁路公司为了修建横贯大陆铁路,在1860年获得的那块历史性的土地赠予。
The Sweetwater royalties, the the company itself is essentially the historic Union Pacific land grant that was given to the railroad to build the Transcontinental Railroad in 1860.
这块土地涵盖了530万英亩的地表和矿产权益,从怀俄明州的夏延一直延伸到盐湖城。
On that land package is 5,300,000 acres of surface and mineral rights that stretch from Cheyenne, Wyoming all the way to, Salt Lake City.
其中80万英亩是地表权,其余是矿产权益,包括石油天然气、铀、纯碱、关键矿产,更不用说地表权在牧场、风电场和数据中心方面的价值了。
So, 800,000 acres of surface and the rest mineral rights, including oil and gas, uranium, soda ash, critical minerals, not to mention the surface value for ranching, wind farms, data centers.
这真是一个难得的机会。
It's, an incredible opportunity.
不过我认为最重要的是,特别是对于了解铀版税公司和认识我本人的观众来说,有必要讨论一下:一家纯粹的铀版税公司,为什么要进行一项收购,这项收购虽然能带来非常可观的近期现金流,但来源却是纯碱和天然碱?
But I think the most important thing, especially with your viewers who know uranium royalty and know me personally, it's probably important to discuss what's the rationale for a pure uranium royalty company to make an acquisition that is gonna provide very significant near term cash flow, but from soda ash, from Trona.
这确实不是铀,但我想你听完这次采访后会放心,铀版税公司并没有偏离其核能的核心专注点,也没有放弃填补当前全球铀市场这个巨大缺口的目标。
It's not exactly uranium, but I think you'll come away from this interview with comfort that uranium royalty is not pivoting away from its core focus of nuclear energy and filling this very significant gap that we have in the global uranium market right now.
而作为为新一代矿山开发提供融资资本的机构,在这个激动人心的时刻,我们绝不会背离这个行业。
And as a a provide you know, provider of of of finance capital for that cohort of new mine development, we would be the last ones to to pivot away from the industry at this exciting time.
不过,这笔交易对我们来说,是让我们在财务上站稳脚跟,以充足的自由现金流进入核能和铀矿开发的历史性增长期,从而能够将资金重新投入到铀行业中去。
What the transaction does for us, however, is puts us on an entirely stronger financial footing to go into this period of historic growth in nuclear energy and uranium mine development from a position of significant free cash flow that can be reinvested, back into the uranium sector.
所以,对于那些担心我们可能偏离核心业务的人来说,这或许是个让人安心的说法。
So that may be comforting words to some that that are worried that, well, maybe we're straying from from the core focus.
这完全不是我们的目标。
That couldn't be further from our objective here.
不过,你知道,这不仅从那块土地现有的权益中带来了巨大的价值,而且那530万英亩土地的选择权也很有价值。
But, you know, it does provide incredible value not just from the existing royalties on on that land package, but also the optionality of that 5,300,000 acres.
你知道,我记得马克·吐温说过,要买地。
You know, I think it was Mark Twain that said, you know, buy land.
土地不多,而且也不会再增加了。
There's not a lot of it, and and they're not making any more of it.
我们也是这么想的,而且这可不是随便哪里的地。
We feel that way, and this isn't just land anywhere.
它横跨怀俄明州整个南部地区,那里矿产丰富,石油和天然气资源也很丰富,而且非常支持开发。
It's across the entire southern stretch of Wyoming, which is so mineral rich, oil and gas rich, and is very pro development.
所以,我们真的很期待这对公司意味着什么。
So we're really excited for, you know, what this means for the company.
这真的让我们进入了另一个层次。
It really puts us into another league.
你知道,我们一直有三个同行群体,或者说实际上有两个,大家总是拿我们跟他们比较。
You know, we've always had three peer groups or actually two peer groups that you've always been able to compare us to.
我们当然属于纯铀股票这一块,跟纯矿业公司、ETF、实物信托这些做对比。
We certainly fall in the pure uranium equities basket and and compare against straight mining companies, ETFs, physical trusts.
我们一直也被拿来跟资源类和贵金属领域的更广泛的版税和流媒体公司比较。
We've always been compared against the broader royalty and streaming basket in resource based and precious metals.
现在我们有了第三个同行群体,就是像Texas Pacific和Landbridge这样的土地公司。
We now have a third peer group, is land companies like Texas Pacific and, Landbridge.
所以,要拆解这笔交易,它是一次11亿美元的收购,其中8亿美元是股票,3亿美元是现金,大部分现金来自我们出售了非常庞大的铀持仓。
So, really, to unpack the deal, it's it's $1,100,000,000 acquisition, 800,000,000 in shares, 300,000,000 in cash, most of which cash has been generated from the sale of our very significant, uranium position.
你记得我们持有240万磅的U3O8,是在市场底部以每磅20.30、40.50美元的价格买入的,然后以每磅超过85美元的价格卖出,为这笔交易提供了大部分现金。
You'll recall we held 2,400,000 pounds of u three zero eight, bought at you know, off the bottom of the market at $20.30, $40.50 dollars a pound, and sold at over $85 a pound and providing the bulk of the cash for the deal.
但在这个过程中,我们还会引入Orion作为43%的股东,以及安大略教师退休金计划作为16%的股东。
But in the process, we'll also gain Orion as a 43% shareholder and Ontario Teachers' pension plan as a 16% shareholder.
UEC还通过私募额外获得了4000万美元,这显然会使他们成为第三大股东,但同时也会保持相当重要的持股比例。
UEC also took a a private placement of an additional 40,000,000 that, will obviously, they'll fall to the third largest shareholder, but also maintaining a very significant shareholding.
这是一笔令人兴奋的交易,我当然很乐意详细讲讲什么是纯碱,多伦多市场的情况如何,以及这笔交易的价值在哪里。
It's an exciting, deal and and certainly happy to unpack what is soda ash, what what does the Toronto market look like, and what is the what is the value from this transaction?
是的,斯科特。
Yeah, Scott.
也许我们现在就直接进入这个话题,聊聊这个。
Maybe we just jump to that now and talk about that.
首先,恭喜你促成了这笔交易。
Well, first, congratulations on putting this together.
我知道这需要付出很多努力,花很多时间,还要有良好的内部关系才能实现,这确实打开了大量的机会。
I know it took a lot of work to get done, a lot of time, a lot of internal good relationships to be able to pull this off and definitely opens up a lot of opportunities.
说到这个,我认为除了现有的资产现金流之外,这里真正凸显的主要机会——我稍后会请你详细谈谈这个——
With that, I think the main opportunity that's really popping up here besides the existing cash flow in assets, which I'll have you talk about here in a moment and go through that.
但让我们先把你将要涉足的领域,比如纯碱等等,与这些土地的投资思路联系起来。
But let's tie in what you're going to get into here, soda ash, etcetera, with the thinking of these grounds.
你们选的那些地块,很明显非常适合怀俄明州的铀矿项目推进和勘探工作。
You know, obviously, you guys have selected grounds that are very conducive to uranium project advancement exploration work in Wyoming.
显然,你们现在可以出去找铀矿方面的合作伙伴了。
Obviously, you guys can go out now and find partners with uranium.
你们也可以在其他领域找合作伙伴,比如石油和天然气。
You can find partners over in other places like oil and gas.
你们可以在某些地块上设置权利金。
You guys could place royalties on certain grounds.
你们可以设计各种不同的创意方式,用不同的方法把这些地块变现。
You guys could structure all kinds of different creative ways to monetize some of those grounds in different ways.
聊聊这个吧。
Talk about that.
聊聊纯碱,聊聊这笔交易中能产生现金流的核心资产。
Talk about soda ash, talk about the key assets that are cash flowing out of this deal.
好的。
Sure.
我们稍后会详细聊聊纯碱业务带来的现金流。
And and we'll come back to, in detail, you know, the cash flow from the soda ash side.
我们收购的这家公司,过去几年每年 EBITDA 大约在 7400 万美元,仅靠土地包西部的五座纯碱矿,就能产生 3000 到 5000 万美元的自由现金流。
But, I mean, it we're acquiring a company that has seen EBITDA in the range of 74,000,000 a year in the last couple years, 30 to 50,000,000 in free cash flow just from those five soda ash, ton of mines in the western portion of the land package.
不过你说得完全对。
But you're absolutely right.
我们是这里的土地所有者。
I mean, we're the landowner here.
所以当我们谈到关键矿产、石油天然气、铀矿这些机会时,这些都是纯现金流,不需要我们出资。
So when we talk about opportunities in critical minerals, oil and gas, uranium, this is all cash flow and no cash calls.
所以,如果我们发现某个区域特别有潜力,比如铀矿,我们不需要自己花钱去钻探、验证资源,最后再开发。
So, you know, if we identify an area's particular interest, say uranium, we don't have to spend the money to drill and prove out those resources and ultimately develop them.
我们会引入我们认为最适合做发现、并能把这些资源投入生产的合作方。
We'll bring in counterparties that we think are best suited to make discoveries and be able to bring these into production.
所以我们会把土地租给矿业公司,让他们去勘探、发现、最终把矿床投入生产,然后我们按产量收取权利金。
So we'll lease the land to mining companies to perform exploration, to make discoveries, to ultimately bring the deposit into production, and pay us a royalty on production.
所以我们就是地主。
So we're the landowner.
当地主的感觉不错,能处于那个位置,但我们可以在关键矿产领域复制这种模式。
It's it's good to be the landowner and and be in that position, but we can replicate that in in critical minerals.
你知道,我们土地包北边已经发现了氦气和其他关键矿产,这些矿产对美国现在来说非常重要。
You know, there's been helium discoveries to the north of our land package and and other critical minerals that are of such great importance to The United States right now.
我们交割后的首要任务就是坐下来,认真评估从夏延到盐湖城这一带,哪些地质调查已经做过,我们收到了哪些意向,以及铀矿的潜力在哪里。
Job one for us on closing is to sit down and really assess from Cheyenne to Salt Lake City what geologic surveys have been done, what inbounds have we seen, and where is the potential for uranium?
这很明显。
It's obvious.
怀俄明州已经产出了2.5亿磅铀,我想历史上它是产铀最多的州。
There's 250,000,000 pounds of uranium has been produced in Wyoming, I think the largest state historically for uranium production.
现在全州有多个矿山和卫星设施在产,包括我们北边的大分水岭盆地,不管你在哪里,能源公司和UEC都在生产。
We now have multiple mines and satellite facilities in production across the state, including just to the north of us in the Great Divide Basin, wherever you are energy, and UEC in production.
而且,我不想暗示现在的所有者——我是说,现在的所有者是Orion和安大略教师退休金计划。
And, you know, don't wanna imply that the current owners I mean, the current owners were Orion and Ontario Teachers Pension Plan.
他们非常高兴能拥有那棵摇钱树,也就是纯碱和天然碱的矿权使用费。
They were quite pleased to literally have that money tree, which were the soda ash and are the soda ash Trona, royalties.
但我敢肯定,在铀价每磅20到30美元的市场里,没人会太在意铀的潜力有多大。
But I'm sure in a $20.30 dollar a pound uranium market, there wasn't a lot of attention paid to, jeez, what's, you know, what's the uranium potential?
在铀价每磅85到90甚至100美元的市场里,情况就完全不同了。
In an $85.90, $100 uranium market, It's a very, very different situation.
所以我们非常兴奋,能真正兑现这种选择权。
So we're very excited to, really realize on that optionality.
我再给你们做个对比。
I'm gonna give you a a comparison again.
我们有一个新的同行群体,叫做土地公司。
We have that new peer group called land companies.
像德克萨斯太平洋这样的公司,拥有200万英亩土地,企业价值大概有290亿美元。
You know, a company like Texas Pacific has, I think, a $29,000,000,000 enterprise value on 2,000,000 acres that that company owns.
我觉得兰德布里奇大概有30万英亩,企业价值可能60亿美元左右。
I think Landbridge is, maybe 300,000 acres on maybe $6,000,000,000 enterprise value.
而我们现在呢,坐拥超过530万英亩的土地,预估企业价值才20亿美元。
And, you know, here we sit with a pro form a $2,000,000,000 enterprise value on over 5,300,000 acres.
所以这里面显然有很大的选择空间,我相信一旦市场意识到这一点,肯定会给我们重新估值。
So there's definitely a lot of optionality, and I think the market will certainly give us a rerating once that that kind of sinks in.
不过,也许更重要的是要看看眼下能看到的现金流,这显然是这个项目吸引人的地方。
But maybe it's important to turn to what is the immediate visibility to cash flow, and that's obviously the attractive aspect of this.
就目前的铀矿权益金业务来说,我们拥有最好的商业模式——权益金和流媒体。
As uranium royalty sits today, we have the the best business model, royalty and streaming.
就像我说的,你有顶线收入,有现金流,不需要太多现金投入,而且管理费用和运营成本都很低。
You have, as I said, you you top line revenue, you have cash flows, not a lot of cash calls, and very low g and a and overhead.
而且我们的投资组合非常吸引人。
And we have a very attractive portfolio.
我们在非洲、加拿大、美国和欧洲拥有24个铀矿项目的27项权益金。
We have 27 royalties on 24 uranium projects across, Africa, Canada, The United States, and Europe.
不过,如果有一件事我想改进的话,那就是我们权益金带来的可观现金流实际上要到2030年才开始,那时我们才能达到每年约2000万美元的收入,这是分析师们的一致预测。
If there was one thing that I could fix, however, it was that the the significant cash flows from our royalties don't begin really until 2030 where, you know, we get up to about 20,000,000 in annual revenue, kind of the the consent analyst consensus forecasts.
这来自于投资组合中的多个铀矿项目。
And that's from a number of of the uranium projects in the in the portfolio.
到2030年代初,这个数字会达到大约5000万。
It gets to about 50,000,000, early in the twenty thirties.
这些都是非常可观的现金流。
That's all really great cash flow.
但在那之前,我们想真正改变现金流的状况,而通过纯碱业务,我们做到了这一点。
But between now and then, we wanted to, really change the the cash flow profile, and, we're able to do that with with soda ash.
具体来说,我们收购的土地让我们控制了全球90%的天然碳酸钠矿床。
To put this in perspective, the land that we're acquiring, gives us control of 9090% of the world's natural Trona soda ash deposits.
这就好比在铀矿领域拿下了阿萨巴斯卡盆地,并且拥有了所有生产商赖以开采的土地。
It would be like being able to acquire the Athabasca Basin in uranium terms and owning the land on which everybody produces from.
现在,我们在怀俄明州的格林河盆地就是这样的所有者,有四家公司在运营五座矿山。
We're that owner in the Green River Basin Of Wyoming now with four companies operating five mines.
我们覆盖了大约50%的产量,并享有8%的总收入特许权使用费。
The coverage that we have is effectively 50% of all production with an 8% gross revenue royalty.
如果你想知道另外50%是谁,那就要追溯到19世纪60年代的联合太平洋铁路土地赠予,当时每隔一个地块就归联邦政府所有。
If you're wondering who the other 50% is as part of the Union Pacific land grant in the eighteen sixties, it's, every other quarter section of land is owned by the federal government.
所以这些公司是在土地管理局和斯威特沃特县的土地上开采。
So these companies are mining on BLM and Sweetwater land.
所以随着时间的推移,大致上——嗯,应该会占到产量的50%。
So over time, it's roughly well, it should be 50% of production.
这是长壁开采法。
This is long wall mining.
它和地下采煤或钾盐开采非常相似,地下长壁开采机在这片巨大的矿层上不断移动。
It's very similar to maybe underground coal mining or potash mining where you've got the underground long wall miners that are just moving across this enormous deposit.
这四家公司、五座矿山,基本上都在开采同一个矿层。
The four companies and the five mines are essentially mining the same deposit.
这是一个非常庞大的作业区域。
It's a massive area of of operation.
现在,或者说去年,我们每年从自己的土地上生产的纯碱中,节省了大约510万吨的收益。
Today, or I would say in last year, we were saving benefit on about 5,100,000 tons per annum of soda ash produced from our land.
目前看来,到2026年这个数字会超过600万吨。
Already, that's looking like it's gonna be higher above 6,000,000 tons in, in 2026.
但仅凭现有矿场的正常扩建和效率提升,预计还能再增长60%。
But the expectations from just normal expansion of these mines, just the normal efficiencies of the existing mines, is an additional 60% growth.
所以,7400万的EBITDA和3000到5000万的自由现金流,在未来三到四年内有望增长60%。
So the EBITDA of 74,000,000, free cash flow of 30 to 50,000,000 can be expected within the next three to four years to increase by 60%.
另外还有60%的增长来自两座新矿,它们都位于我们控制的土地上。
There's another 60% of growth in the form of two new mines, which are located on lands in which we control.
这样一来,仅纯碱业务在未来五到六年内,EBITDA和现金流就能增长到原来的两倍半。
We then have effectively a two and a half times EBITDA and cash flow growth over the next five to six years just from soda ash.
你可能在想,纯碱是什么?
You're probably wondering, what is soda ash?
它有什么用途?
What is it used for?
我觉得它算是一种沃伦·巴菲特式的商品。
I would say it's a Warren Buffett type commodity.
它不像黄金或铀那样吸引人,但它是玻璃的关键原料。
It's not sexy like gold or uranium, but it's the key ingredient in glass.
如果你坐在家里或办公室里,看着一块玻璃窗,那块玻璃就是用怀俄明州的纯碱生产的。
If you're sitting in a in a home or business and you're looking at a pane of glass, that was produced from soda ash from Wyoming.
所以不仅是平板玻璃、容器玻璃,它还用于太阳能板。
And so not only flat glass, container glass, it's used in solar panels.
增长领域之一是电池,锂电池,还有洗涤剂。
One of the growth areas are batteries, lithium batteries, and detergents.
在可预见的未来,需求每年增长约3%,而我们在土地上运营的矿山实际上是全球成本最低的四分之一。
Demand is growing at about 3% per annum for the foreseeable future, and the mines that are producing on our land are effectively the lowest cost quartile in the world.
如果你研究这种商品,你可能会说,嗯,有中国参与,还有合成产品。
And if you research the commodity, you might say, well, there's Chinese involvement and there's synthetics.
不过,与钻石不同,我们市场上的合成产品成本最高、最不环保,而且能耗最高。
Unlike diamonds, however, the synthetics in our market are the highest cost, least environmentally friendly, and you have the highest energy consumption.
所以,如果市场价格波动导致某些产能停产,那会是成本较高的中国矿山,而不是我们在怀俄明州有权益的矿山。
So if there's production that comes offline due to price movements in the market, it's the higher cost Chinese mines and not the mines that we, have interest in in Wyoming.
好,先停一下。
Well, stop there for just a sec.
我想问你几个后续问题。
Wanna ask you a couple follow-up questions.
首先,能不能跟我们说说这些运营商?就是我们在讨论的那些主要矿场,它们的运营商叫什么名字?
First, can you tell us a little bit about the operators, the names of the operators that are the major minds here of concern that we're talking about?
其次,在这些运营中,显然有很多数据收集工作。
And then secondly, at these operations, obviously, there's a bunch of data collection of the operation.
还有大量的地质信息,比如矿床类型、矿化类型。
A lot of geological information here as well, deposit types, mineralization types.
这里有没有可能产出副产品铀?
Is there any potential for byproduct uranium out of here?
聊聊这些运营或矿点中的副产品铀,另外也请你再具体说说这些运营商。
Talk about that byproduct uranium out of these operations or their showings, and then also if you can talk a little bit more about the operators specifically.
好的。
Yeah.
这些运营商本身包括像Siscam这样的土耳其公司,还有Tata Solve、We Soda、Alchem,都是目前这个领域的运营商。
So the the operators themselves are companies like Siscam, which is a Turkish company, Tata Solve, We Soda, Alchem, are the are the current operators, in the space.
这五座矿已经开采了五十多年,而且资源量很可能还会延续,你知道,未来一百到两百五十年都不成问题。
These five mines have been producing for more than fifty years, and the resource is is likely to extend, you know, for a hundred to two hundred and fifty years into the future.
规模就是这么大。
It's that large.
所以,这显然就是纯碱和天然碱生产领域的阿萨巴斯卡盆地。
So, you know, this, this clearly is the Athabasca Basin of, of soda ash and Trona production.
至于副产品,这些矿床相当纯净。
In terms of byproduct, it's pretty it's a pretty pure deposits.
开采天然碱的时候,你就是在天然碱矿床里,用那些长臂采矿机进行提取。
When you're mining Trona, you're in in the Trona deposit and and, you know, you're extracting it by these long long haul miners.
铀的潜力在另外530万英亩的土地上,所以跟纯碱不在一起。
The uranium potential is, elsewhere on the 5,300,000 acres, so they're not with, soda ash.
它们是独立的矿床。
It's separate deposits.
所以澄清这一点很好。
So it's good to clarify that.
你知道,我们想多了解一些这些方面的事情。
You know, we wanna know a little bit more about those things.
我相信随着你们交易完成等进展,我们会听到更多关于战略和方向的信息。
And I'm sure as as you guys progress here with the transaction close and so forth, we're we'll hear more about the strategy and the direction.
但我觉得我们大概知道它往哪个方向走了。
But I think we have a rough idea on where that's headed.
另外,显然,我们知道在磷酸盐和钾肥业务中,这类业务。
And then also, obviously, we know with with phosphates and potash operations, these these types of operations.
有时候根据矿床类型,我们可能会遇到副产品铀。
Sometimes depending on the deposit type, we can come across byproduct uranium.
也许在某些情况下,以现在的价格,副产品铀并不经济。
Maybe not byproduct uranium that's economic in some cases at today's prices.
在某些情况下,是的。
In some cases, yes.
但当然,随着价格像我们预期的那样上涨到九千一、一百二十等等,这些业务突然之间有些就变得相当经济可行,值得考虑副产品提取。
But certainly, as price increases here, which we do expect 9,100, one twenty, etcetera, that these operations, all of a sudden, some of them become quite economic and feasible to look at the byproduct extraction.
所以,请继续谈谈与土地策略相关的一些想法。
So go ahead and talk a little bit more some of the ideas surrounding the strategy related to the land.
我的意思是,看起来你现在把德克萨斯太平洋公司作为潜在同行来比较,这挺有意思的。
I mean, it looks like I mean, you've used Texas Pacific here as a potential peer now, which is quite interesting.
我鼓励听众们去看看TPL,也就是德克萨斯太平洋土地信托。
I encourage the audience to take a look at TPL, Texas Pacific Land Trust.
斯科特,请谈谈你认为围绕这些土地的一些核心策略是什么。
And, Scott, talk a little bit about what you would see as some of the core strategies surrounding some of these grounds.
再说一次,这涵盖了方方面面。
Again, it it runs the whole gamut across.
如果你从夏延开车到盐湖城,沿着80号州际公路走,基本上就是沿着联合太平洋铁路的路线。
If you've traveled from Cheyenne, Salt Lake City on I 80 across there, basically follows the Union Pacific Railroad route.
那里有非常多的活动。
You've got so much activity.
石油和天然气当然是怀俄明州的主要产业。
Oil and gas is, of course, a major industry in Wyoming.
这些土地中很多,你知道,多年来已经被租赁或出售给石油和天然气公司了。
A lot of this land, you know, has been leased or sold to oil and gas companies, you know, through the years.
西方石油公司和阿纳达科公司都曾在那里活跃过。
You've had Occidental Petroleum, Anadarko active in there.
现在威廉姆斯公司正在那里生产天然气。
Now currently Williams producing natural gas.
我认为,随着一些老油田逐渐枯竭,这些土地上还有巨大的石油和天然气开发潜力,他们想扩展到我们持有的土地上。
I think there's enormous potential for additional oil and gas development on on lands as some of those older fields are playing out, and they want to expand onto land that that we're holding.
而且我认为,那些石油公司已经开采过的土地,肯定还有额外的铀矿潜力。
And I think some of those lands have, that the oil companies have have produced from certainly have additional uranium potential.
所以我认为,我们有机会在这方面进行土地置换。
So I think we have, the opportunity to do land swaps in that regard.
在七月四日期间,我有机会,纯粹是社交场合,遇到了内政部的伯加姆部长,跟他谈了这个交易,他们非常兴奋。
I had the opportunity over the July 4, to just, on a social basis, run into secretary Bergam at the Department of Interior, talk to him about this transaction, and they're very excited.
你知道,这届政府认为联邦政府在美国西部拥有的土地极其宝贵,他们希望以更符合美国人民整体利益的方式来开发这些土地。
As you know, this administration, you know, views the the land holdings that federal government has in the Western United States as incredibly valuable, and they wanna see that land developed in the best interest of of Americans more broadly.
所以,当他听说我们要更努力地开发这片土地,去开采关键矿产、石油和天然气时,他简直喜出望外。
And so, you know, the it was music to his ears to learn that we're gonna be working this land, you know, a lot more diligently to, you know, to develop critical minerals, oil and gas.
他自己也说了,即使和土地管理局合作,也有进行土地置换的潜力,比如有些地块可能对联邦政府更有吸引力。
And he himself said there's there's certainly potential even with the BLM to engage in land swaps where there may be areas of of the land package that be might be of more interest to the federal government.
我们会用一些可能拥有矿产权益——无论是关键矿产还是石油天然气——的土地来进行交换。
You know, we would take, an exchange land that might have, you know, mineral interest, whether it be critical minerals or or oil and gas.
另一个备受关注、但并非总是正面关注的话题,就是数据中心。
Another area which is really drawn a lot of attention, not always good attention, are data centers.
我知道在弗吉尼亚北部等地,数据中心并不像人们最初想象的那样是理想的邻居,但我们有广阔开阔的土地,不会打扰当地社区。
And I know in places like, Northern Virginia and others, they're not be they're not the ideal neighbors that people thought they would be, when they came in, but we've got land, you know, in wide open spaces that wouldn't be bothering, local communities.
我们有丰富的能源,无论是煤炭,还是现在在凯默勒北部即将上马的核电。
We have abundant energy, whether it's coal or now nuclear coming on just north of us at Kemmerer.
所以,我们会与那些希望在美国西部扩建数据中心的企业进行接洽。
So we'll be engaging with companies that are looking to expand data centers in the Western United States.
另外,就像其他常见的土地用途,比如牧场和放牧,但我觉得关键矿产也是我们真正需要关注的一个领域。
And, again, just, you know, the other typical surface ranching, grazing, but I think critical minerals will be one too that we really wanna look at.
说到氦气,鉴于它的重要性,特别是海湾战争导致供应紧张,影响到美国的导弹项目和其他战略项目,这个就值得关注。
And I helium comes to mind given its attention, especially especially with the Gulf War tightening supplies, for our missile programs and other other strategic programs in The United States.
我们真的会仔细调查一下,看看在这片土地上到底有哪些关键矿产,可能之前一直没有被优先考虑。
We're really gonna be doing a a survey of of what critical minerals just, you know, maybe on the land package, but haven't been prioritized to date.
对。
Yeah.
这点提得很好。
That's great to highlight.
非常感谢你详细介绍了这些。
Really appreciate you walking through some of that.
当然,斯科特,我们会看看这些策略如何实施。
Of course, we'll see the strategies play out here, Scott.
我知道你们面临竞争,而且你们想有条不紊地推进这件事。
I know you guys have competition out there, and you guys wanna go through this in a methodical way.
关于数据中心的评论挺有意思的。
Interesting comment on the data centers.
那个话题确实挺有趣。
That one's interesting.
当然,我们现在对数据中心有些相当明确的看法,包括它们真正的用途是什么——这完全是另一个话题了。
Of course, we have some fairly strong opinions on the the data centers these days and what the true intent of data centers for, which is a whole another conversation.
我相信大家也能开始琢磨一下这些事。
I'm sure people can start to think a little bit about those.
但这对公司来说有巨大的财务潜力,我想再稍微多聊一会儿这个话题,然后我再转到别的内容。
But the financial potential there for the company and I wanna stay on this for just one moment, and then I'll move on.
不过,说到这个,以及吸引这些潜在客户来做不同的事情——无论是自然资源开发、数据中心建设、新基础设施选址、配套基础设施、核电站等等——不妨聊聊在这片土地包上,有哪些现有基础设施可能会让一些人感兴趣。
But with that and attracting some of these potential clients for these different things, whether it's natural resource development, whether it's data center development, whether it's sites for new infrastructure, supporting infrastructure, NPPs, what have you, Just talk a little bit about along this land package, some of the existing infrastructure, which some folks might find attractive.
你知道,有一件有意思的事是,这届政府不像前几届那样热衷这个,但说不定以后又会重新重视起来——我们确实有10万英亩的地表面积租给了可再生能源开发项目,特别是风力发电。
You know, one thing that is interesting, it's it's not as vogue in in this administration as opposed to previous administrations, but, you know, could could be, come back and play as well as we do have three, 100,000 surface acres leased for renewable development, particularly, wind power.
而且,风力发电的特许权使用费,每吉瓦可能高达500万美元,太阳能的话,每吉瓦大约是200万美元。
And, the royalties on the on the wind power, you know, could be as high as 5,000,000 per gigawatt of wind and, you know, 2,000,000 per per gigawatt for solar.
所以这些可再生能源嘛,现在政府换一届就像打乒乓球一样来回变,但不管哪届政府、哪种能源政策,这个潜力一直都在。
So as, those renewables, you know, they're a bit of a ping pong ball between administrations these days, but that potential, you know, is is always there under different administrations or different energy policies.
总之,这涵盖了地表和地下的所有可能性。
Again, it just it runs the whole gamut of surface, potential and, and underground.
不过眼下,我们很希望这个月底能敲定一笔交易,这样就能立刻带来自由现金流,大大推动我们的铀矿项目。
But, again, in the immediate future, you know, we're eager to, you know, have a deal closed by the end of this month that will immediately bring us free cash flow in from those operations that can really, really turbocharge our uranium aspirations.
而且我觉得,虽然大家都在谈纯碱、可再生能源和天然气,但我们不能因此分心。
And I I think, you know, with all this talk of soda ash, renewable soil, and gas, I don't wanna, you know, take our eye off the ball.
我们的铀矿团队一直非常活跃。
Our our uranium team continues to be very active.
最近几年,我们多次前往非洲、中东和澳大利亚,基本上和全球所有潜在的矿商和开发商都面对面谈过——只要是这个周期或下个周期有可能投产的,一个都没落下。
You know, we've made multiple trips in the last recent years to Africa, The Middle East, Australia to basically be in front of every potential miner and developer anywhere in the world, and I mean anywhere, that has any chance of producing in this cycle or next.
我们都和他们坐下来聊过。
We've sat down with them.
很多情况下,我们还参观了他们的运营现场,并提出了全部或部分资助他们开发的方案,帮助他们启动或实现生产。
In many cases, we've toured their operations and, offered up our potential to to finance their development either entirely or partially, to help get them towards production or into production.
这情况还挺有意思的。
And it's kind of an interesting situation.
一方面,在核电需求基本翻倍、甚至可能翻三倍的情况下,全球潜在的新矿数量其实相当惊人。
On one hand, you know, for an industry where nuclear power is doubling in the base case, if not tripling in in likely scenario, the number of potential new mines in the pipeline globally is pretty incredible.
但考虑到需求前景,这个数量其实很小,这也反映出大家刚刚从长达十二年的熊市和漫长的休眠期里走出来。
It's small, you know, given the the demand outlook, and I'd really it really kinda points to the twelve year bear market that everyone's kind of emerged from the long hibernation.
现在突然之间,几乎每个大洲都需要开发铀矿,可我们根本没有足够的项目储备。
And now suddenly, we need uranium mines on on just about every continent developed, and we just don't have the pipeline.
所以,我不会让你觉得明年就能有很多矿投产并产生现金流,但确实有一些矿能在本十年末之前投产,我们对此当然很感兴趣。
So, you know, I'm not gonna lead you to believe there's a lot of mines that can come on in cash flow, you know, next year, but there are some that can come on in cash flow by the end of the decade that we're, you know, certainly interested in.
这也是我们追求甜水项目的原因之一——我们想知道,从明年开始,哪个铀矿项目能带来3000万到5000万美元的自由现金流?
It's it's part of the reason why we pursued the sweet water is that, you know, where could we get 30 to 50,000,000 free cash flow in a uranium project starting next year?
非常难。
Very difficult.
但那些在本十年末到2030年代初启动的矿,所需的资本将达到数十亿美元。
But the need for capital for mines that are starting up at the end of this decade and into the early twenty thirties is gonna be in the billions of dollars.
这需要大量的债务和股权,还会有特许权使用费和流媒体收益。
And that's gonna take a lot of debt, a lot of equity, and there's gonna be royalties and streams.
而我们希望成为特许权和流媒体领域的资本提供者。
And we wanna be, you know, that capital provider in the royalty and streaming category.
所以我们对前景感到兴奋。
So we're excited about the prospects.
我的意思是,我不能透露具体和谁在谈,但可以大致说说我们在关注哪些类型的东西。
I mean, I I can't get into detail exactly of who we're in discussions with, but I can kinda give you ideas of the types of things we're we're looking at.
对。
Yeah.
听着,斯科特。
Look, Scott.
我很感激。
I appreciate that.
我认为这提供了一个绝佳的平台。
I think this provides an incredible platform.
首先,铀矿领域目前确实没有太多好的选择。
First of all, there's just not a lot of good options out there on the uranium sector.
我的意思是,我们已经看到了这种情况的发展。
I mean, we've seen this play out.
而且这种情况还会继续发展下去。
We'll continue to see this play out.
它正在慢慢改变。
It's slowly changing.
不会一直这样下去。
It won't always be this way.
未来我们会看到一些变化。
We'll we'll see changes in the future here.
时间会证明一切,具体什么时候发生还有待讨论。
Time will tell, and exactly when that'll happen is still up for debate.
但我认为这提供了一个极好的平台,可以开始建立资本基础,吸引自然资源开发、能源等领域的合作伙伴加入并给予支持。
But I think this provides an incredible platform to start building up that capital base, attracting partners in the various areas of natural resource development, energy, etcetera, that can come in here and also support.
这样一来,你就能吸引到其他那些想分一杯羹的大型机构基金了。
You could then you're gonna get attention of other institutional's bigger funds out there who wanna get a piece of this as well.
这实际上为未来的发展奠定了基础,未来会有几个重要的铀矿开发项目,还有其他一些事情会发生,随着周期成熟,我们还会看到新的发现。
And and that really kinda provides the groundwork for what's to come, which will be a couple substantial future uranium development projects among other things that'll happen and and new discoveries and things we'll see as the cycle matures out.
所以我觉得这是个好主意。
So I think it's a great idea.
他们能帮你们更快地推进事情,同时也能让你们在土地组合和可做的事情上拥有更多的选择空间。
They provide you guys with getting things done a little bit faster, and then it provides so much more optionality with respect to the land package and the things you can do there.
所以我非常期待看到这笔交易完成,期待看到你们在首批交易中拿出什么成果,以及随着你们审视这片土地组合、发掘所有机会,这个战略会如何演变。
So I'm I'm looking forward to seeing this get closed up and seeing what you guys come out with on initial deals and evolution of that strategy as you guys look at this land package and unveil all these opportunities.
如果有人在关注2027年的收益,我们大概能估算出那时的现金流会是什么样子。
We've got a rough idea on what the cash flows would potentially look like here in 2027 if someone was looking down the road towards earnings.
这实际上为你们提供了所有的后台支持和运营开支,而对于一家版权公司来说,员工人数很少,管理团队也很小。
This really provides you guys all that back office, all that operating expenditures that you guys have, which for a royalty company, very small, employee base, very small, management team, very small.
所以我觉得这部分现在算是解决了。
So I think now that's kind of covered.
现在关键是积累资金,去争取更多这样的交易机会。
Now it's really building that war chest to go after some of these additional deals.
所以我们大概知道2027年公司的预估情况,也清楚战略方向。
So we have an idea on where we would stand on 2027 pro form a profile for the company, have an idea on strategies.
回顾一下,你们在这次与UEC的交易中,完成了一笔4000万美元的私募股权融资。
Just coming back, you guys did a 40,000,000 US dollar private placement equity financing as part of this transaction with UEC.
那是在五月份。
This was during May.
再强调一下,我们看到那三大股东都在里面。
Just to highlight for us one more time, we see the three big shareholders in there.
请指出这次交易中其他你想提到的股东,然后向听众更新一下公司预估的流通股数量和预期现金余额。
Highlight any other shareholders coming out of this transaction you wanna mention, and then refresh the audience on where we would stand pro form a shares outstanding at the company and expected cash on hand.
好的。
Yeah.
关于指引,我们和其他大多数矿业权公司处境类似,那就是我们并不拥有那些给我们带来现金流的资产。
So in terms of guidance, we we we're in the difficult position that most royalty companies are in and that we don't, you know, we don't own the assets that we're receiving cash flow from.
我们无法控制它们。
We don't control them.
所以,你知道,对于自己无法控制的事情,很难做出准确的收入预测。
So, you know, it's hard to firmly project revenue on things you don't control.
随着这笔交易基本完成,我们所有的分析师都会更新数据。
As the deal is kinda concluded, you're gonna have all of our analysts updating.
因此,我们可以引用分析师对收入的共识预测。
You know, therefore, we can, you know, cite, analyst consensus on on revenue.
但我们在过程中给出的数字,以及已经发给股东投票的通函中会显示的内容,是我们可以谈谈Sweetwater的情况。
But the numbers that we've been giving in the process, and you'll see it in the circular that's been sent out to shareholders for the vote, is, you know, we can speak to what Sweetwater has seen.
所以如果要预测的话,目前最合适的数字可能是过去两年平均7400万美元的EBITDA,以及3000到5000万美元的自由现金流。
So if you had to project, the best numbers that you probably use right now would be, you know, the 74,000,000 average EBITDA over the last two years and the 30 to 50,000,000 in free cash flow.
两者之间的差异主要来自这笔交易中承担的债务。
The difference there is largely the debt that is being acquired with this.
就债务而言,条件相当不错。
As far as debt goes, it's fairly attractive.
这是一笔5%利率的抵押贷款式分期还款,由一家保险公司提供。
It's a 5% interest in a in a mortgage style amortization with an insurance company.
所以这就是EBITDA和现金流之间的差异。
So that's the difference between EBITDA and and and cash flow.
管理费用并不高。
The overhead is not great.
我们欢迎Sweetwater团队加入,他们是一个非常小的团队,实际上只有三名专业人员加上后台支持,来自科罗拉多州莱克伍德,这对我来说挺方便的。
We are, welcoming over the Sweetwater team, which is very small team of effectively three professionals and and their back office out of Lakewood, Colorado, which is nice for me.
我们实际上打算将新的URC公司迁回美国,因为大部分收入来自美国。
We're actually going to redomicile, the new URC in The United States given the significant earnings coming from The US.
没必要把那些收入转到加拿大去。
There's no need to bring that up to Canada.
坦白说,我认为在这样一个时期,作为一家纯粹的美国公司,当我们可能去非洲投资时,特朗普政府可能非常希望看到西方投资,以确保铀矿不落入俄罗斯和中国之手。
And, frankly, I think being a pure US company at a time where we're out in potentially investing in projects, let's say, in Africa where the Trump administration may be very eager to see western investment keep uranium mines out of the hands of Russia and China.
我认为这确实增强了我们与美国国际开发金融公司合作的能力,让这些项目留在西方阵营,而不是最终落到中国人手里。
It really enhances, I think, our ability to almost partner with DFC in seeing some of these projects stay in the Western camp and not end up going to the Chinese.
这正好说明了重新注册地的好处。
That kind of speaks to the redomiciled status.
你知道,我们公开给出的EBITDA和现金流增长数据是,未来三到四年内,现有矿山的增长大约60%,再加上两个新矿投产带来的60%额外增长。
You know, the numbers that we've given publicly for growth in the EBITDA and cash flow is roughly 60% over the next three to four years from existing mines and 60% additional growth from two new mines coming out.
所以,如果只看纯碱业务,EBITDA增长能达到两倍半。
So if you just if you just took soda ash, it's two and a half times EBITDA growth.
至于新增股份,交易涉及的股份分配是,UEC认购4000万股,安大略教师退休金和Orion认购8亿股。
And in terms of additional shares, the shares involved in transaction, it's basically UEC taking a placement of 40,000,000 and Ontario Teachers and Orion taking 800,000,000 in shares.
是的,我们的总股本确实会增加。
So, yes, our share count increases.
交易价格是每股3.64美元,这会让我们的总股本大幅增加。
The deal price was at $3.64 US, increases our share count considerably.
但说实话,如果有什么交易是能带来增值的,那就是这笔了。
But, I mean, if there was ever an accretive transaction, this is it.
你知道,合并后的预估企业价值将超过20亿美元,而且显然,交易完成后就能立即产生现金流,而不是五年或十年后才有现金流。
You know, the combined pro form a enterprise value is expected to be over 2,000,000,000 and, obviously, see immediate cash flows, not cash flows five or ten years from now, starting upon closing.
所以我们很期待他们的加入。
So, you know, we're eager to to have them.
我知道在通函和相关文件里,提到过后续融资,但并不是完成交易的必要条件。
I know in the circular and the and the documents, you know, there was some talk of a subsequent financing that wasn't required to close the deal.
安大略教师退休金和奥利安以交易价格——也就是UEC收购的每股3.64美元——额外认购了股份,这样就不需要额外融资就能完成交易了。
Ontario Teachers and Orion took additional shares at the deal price, the same price that UEC is buying at $3.64 US to close the deal without an additional, financing.
所以,我觉得有奥利安在——我不好说他们会持股多久,但可以说,他们在全球矿业融资领域,甚至在美国政府那边,都有极好的声誉。
So I think having Orion I can't speak to how long they'll be a shareholder, but I can say given their incredible reputation in mine finance globally and even with the US government.
而且,再回到DFC和他们与阿联酋等国在关键矿产上的合作,我觉得我们能从他们身上学到很多,并把这些经验应用到铀业务上。
And, again, coming back to DFC and some of the things they're doing with Critical Minerals with The UAE and others, I think there's a lot that we can learn from them and and bring it to the uranium side of the business.
至于安大略教师退休金,如果安大略是一个国家,凭借他们现有的反应堆和计划中的增长,他们将成为全球领先的核能国家之一。
Ontario teachers, you know, if Ontario was a country, they would be one of the leading nuclear energy countries in the world, with what their current reactors and and planned growth.
所以,我认为他们很乐意在自己的投资组合中加入铀资产,而且他们在加拿大也是非常受尊敬的机构投资者。
So I think they're very, happy to have uranium exposure in in their portfolio and certainly very respected institutional investors in in Canada.
所以我们很期待能达成这一点,但我也看到,一些我从未见过的机构投资者也开始关注我们,他们喜欢拥有大量土地储备的公司。
So, you know, we're eager to to get that, but I think we're also seeing investors that I've had meetings with institutional investors that I had never met before that love companies with land.
他们投资土地,以及土地带来的所有选择权。
They they invest in land and all the optionality that that brings.
所以我们正在吸引新的投资者。
So we're bringing in new investors.
同时,我们当然也保留了原有的铀投资者和专注方向。
And, again, certainly retaining our, you know, our uranium, investors and focus.
我们并没有偏离这个使命,所以这确实在很多方面都很有增值效果。
We're not straying from that, mandate that we have, and so it's really been very accretive in in a number of different ways.
而且,能够通过这笔交易及其带来的现金流来保持对铀的专注,这显然会随着时间推移而增加,也是其中的关键部分。
And it could be under the you know, to be able to do this transaction and the cash flows it provides to have that uranium focus, which is obviously going to increase going down the road here, is a key part of this as well.
所以,如果你们能够执行这个策略——我看不出有什么理由做不到——那么未来,虽然可能需要一些时间,这笔交易会证明其巨大的价值,斯科特。
So I think if you guys are able to execute on the strategy, which I don't see any reason why you wouldn't be able to, this is gonna prove in the future, may take some time, a substantial value out of this transaction, Scott.
所以我很期待看到你们首先向投资界展示这条路径。
So looking forward to seeing what you guys do first and foremost to start showing that pathway to the investment community.
这也确实为这笔交易带来了额外的一两个投资者群体。
And it really brings in an additional demographic or two of investors into this as well.
所以我觉得这笔交易也会让URC进入其他投资者的视野,这些人可能对铀没那么在意,但把土地看作自己投资策略里的关键一环。
So I think that's also gonna put this transaction will put URC on the radar, for other demographic of investors out there who maybe don't necessarily care as much about uranium, but they see the land as part of a key investment strategy of their own.
所以我挺期待看看后续发展的。
So I'm looking forward to seeing what happens there.
对,完全同意。
And, yeah, absolutely.
谢谢您提供的信息,让我了解了你们在所谓的生产概况、铀当量磅数、黄金当量盎司这些方面的情况。
Thank you for the information on where you guys would be on a if I can call it a production profile, pro form a uranium equivalent pounds, gold equivalent ounces, what what have you there.
我们对这个位置有了清晰的认识。
We have a good idea where this stands.
而且,这确实很好地夯实了基础,还能给你们带来一些不错的额外现金,放进资金储备里,为未来的交易做准备。
And once again, it really covers off that base really well and provide you guys with some nice excess cash to be able to put in the war chest for future transactions.
所以恭喜你们达成这笔交易。
So congratulations on this.
当然,期待交易完成,我们也会看看你们接下来有什么新动作。
Looking forward to the closing, of course, and we'll see what you guys come up with next.
而且,回到刚才说的,UROI和URCE如何融入这个行业的不同领域,无论是实物持有公司、开发商、勘探公司、生产商,还是像Cameco Westinghouse这样的全整合型企业,甚至燃料循环环节的转化、浓缩、燃料制造公司,都是如此。
And, you know, back to the how, you know, UROI, URCE fits into this different areas of this industry, whether you're talking about physical holding companies, whether you're talking about developers, explorecos, producers, these fully integrated houses, you know, we could use the Cameco Westinghouse as an example there or even the fuel cycle side conversion enrichment fabrication companies out there.
我个人对核电站建设商或相关技术没什么兴趣,但Scott,如果要说一家风险适中的公司,为什么不去投资URC,而要选一家实物公司呢?
Me personally don't have any interest in in the builders of MPPs or any of that tech, But, certainly, looking at a company that provides a moderate risk profile, if I can say that, Scott, why would you go after a physical company when you can go after a URC?
这笔交易本身就引出了这个问题。
I mean, it begs the question with this transaction.
你说,为什么非要死磕一家单一的铀实物持有公司呢?
You know, why would you just go on a one trick pony uranium physical holding company?
对。
Yeah.
这确实让人看到,权利金和流媒体公司在铀矿乃至贵金属领域所扮演的独特角色。
It's it's you know, it it it kinda gives you the idea of, you know, the unique position that royalty and streaming companies play, not just in uranium but based on precious metals.
在我们这个行业,你可以直接进行铀矿股权投资,但又不用承担单一矿山的风险。
You know, in our sector, we have elements of the straight uranium mining equity investment without, you know, single mine risk.
我们拥有一个包含27项权益、覆盖24个项目的投资组合。
You know, we have a portfolio of 27 interests on 24 projects.
我们也有实物铀的部分,我们买过铀、卖过铀,并且会从这次销售中获得非常可观的收益,用来资助这笔交易。
We have elements of physical uranium where we've bought uranium, sold uranium, and we'll generate a very significant gain on the sale of that uranium to fund this transaction.
那笔交易利润很高,所以我们也有实物信托的成分。
That was very lucrative, and so we have elements of the physical trust.
我们还有一些ETF的元素,但ETF的缺点在于,好的、坏的、差的都混在一起。
We have some elements of an ETF, but, you know, the downside of an ETF is you have the good, the bad, and the ugly all in the in the mix.
没有区分度。
There's no discernment.
我们实际上是根据尽职调查,精心挑选了我们的投资组合。
We've actually gone out and and we've curated, you know, our portfolio based on due diligence from people.
有意思的是,我们铀业皇家公司这个小团队里的很多人,都来自卡梅科,在那里工作了数十年,涉及全球勘探、雪湖和麦克阿瑟河的矿山开发工程,或者像我一样有政府事务和市场营销背景。
You know, it's interesting that a number of the people that, you know, our small team at Uranium Royalty, we all came from Cameco where we worked in for decades in global exploration, mine development engineering at Scar Lake MacArthur River, or my government affairs and marketing background.
所以我们用几十年的经验作为筛选标准,来判断哪些项目值得关注和跟进。
So we, you know, we we apply those filters of decades of experience on what projects to identify and go after.
当我们确定了一个潜在的合作方,就会根据情况合理定价,因为选谁和出多少钱同样重要,这样才能确保这些收购是有增值效果的。
And when we've identified, you know, a potential counterparty, pricing it accordingly because it, that's just as important as who you pick is is what you pay for the asset to ensure that that these acquisitions are are, accretive.
所以,我们很兴奋,因为管道需要大幅扩张,而且我不确定铀市场是否已经意识到这一点。
So, I mean, we're we're excited because, like, the pipeline needs to grow dramatically, and I'm I'm not sure the uranium market has gotten their heads around that yet.
你看,如果我只说各个地区,加拿大——萨斯喀彻温省需要在未来十年内将产量翻倍,但看起来卡梅科并不是推动这一增长的主力。
You know, if I just go through the various regions, Canada I mean, Saskatchewan needs to double production in the next ten years, and it doesn't look like Cameco, you know, is is the engine behind that growth.
而是其他玩家,比如丹尼森、NextGen Paladin,以及UEC旗下的Rough Rider。
It's the other players like Denison, NextGen Paladin, and UEC with Rough Rider.
这很好。
And that's great.
让我们给这个盆地带来一些新的活力。
Let's bring some new energy into the basin.
这些公司可能也更愿意接受各种融资方案,因为萨斯喀彻温省的矿山资本投入不便宜,但它们规模大、利润高、寿命长。
Those companies also are are are probably more amenable to a whole, array of financing options because the the capital lift for mines in Saskatchewan, they're not cheap, but they're very, you know, big and profitable and long life.
所以我们很渴望在萨斯喀彻温省做更多事情。
So we're eager to do more in Saskatchewan.
在美国,我们已经有了五个——哦,抱歉。
In The United States, we already have five or sorry.
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我们投资组合中有三个项目被列入了特朗普总统的‘快速41’计划,过去18个月里,这些项目确实因此加速推进了很多。
Three projects in our portfolio based that are on president Trump's fast 41, And we've seen those projects really accelerate dramatically just in the last eighteen months as a result of that.
然后,还有特朗普的其他政策,比如禁止俄罗斯铀进口、建立战略铀储备、把铀列入关键矿产清单等等。
And then, you know, just other Trump policies, whether it's the Russian uranium ban or the strategic uranium reserve or uranium on the critical minerals list.
这些政策让美国本土的铀资产重新被看好。
It's causing US assets to be viewed differently again.
以前有一段时间,大家可能会说,‘有美国产的铀当然好,但也不是非有不可。’
It's now it's I think there was a period of time where people said, oh, wouldn't it be nice if we had US uranium, but it's not really required?
但现在不一样了,美国本土的矿山成了必需品,而且大家也看到了美国能源信息署的数据里那些积极的苗头——美国本土的铀产量正在回升。
Now, like, US mines are required, and and you've you've seen the green shoots of the EIA numbers where US production is now ramping up.
我认为美国国内铀产业有能力年产2500万到3000万磅铀,虽然不是一夜之间就能实现,但在当前这种支持性政策和强劲市场条件下——我觉得现在就是这样的条件——这个产量又能变得举足轻重了。
I think The US domestic industry has the ability to produce 25, 30,000,000 pounds, not overnight, but under supportive policies and strong market conditions, which I'll argue that we have today, that can be meaningful again.
这些公司需要融资,而我们很乐意作为权利金和流媒体合作伙伴来支持他们。
And those companies need financing, and we're happy to be a royalty and stream partner to them.
再看看海外,澳大利亚那边,我们其实很想在那里做更多项目,但这真的得看各个州的具体情况。
If you look abroad into Australia, I think we'd like to do a lot more in Australia, but it's really state by state.
对吧?
Right?
澳大利亚的州政策需要放开,才能释放那里巨大的资源。
It it's, state policies in Australia need to open up, you know, and unlock, you know, enormous resources in Australia.
不过我认为,澳大利亚、加拿大和美国确实应该开发自己的资源,因为我不确定我们能否长期依赖中亚。
Well, I think it's important though that Australia, Canada, and The United States really develop their assets because we really I'm not sure we're gonna be able to count on Central Asia, you know, over the long term.
我知道,我和Gazette、Prom合作过,帮他们建立了全球铀合同体系。
I know I worked with Gazette and Prom, and I helped them build out their global book of of uranium, contracts.
但近年来,我们看到俄罗斯和中国真正加强了对那个战略国家的控制,不仅是石油和天然气,还有铀。
But I think in recent years, we've seen Russia and China really consolidate their control over that very strategic country, not only oil and gas, but uranium.
这对Kazat和Prominent来说是个好消息。
And that's good news for Kazat and Prominent.
未来几十年,他们会有中国和俄罗斯这样的大买家,需求量非常大。
They're gonna have very big hungry buyers for uranium for decades into the future, but from China and Russia.
但我不确定这能有多少铀流向西方。
But I'm not sure that means much uranium gets gets to the West.
我们看到跟印度签了一些合同,但我不确定,在那些大额承诺和运输物流的挑战之下,我们还能不能像依赖那些金砖阵营国家一样依赖中亚。
You've seen, you know, some contracting with India, but I'm not sure between those large commitments and the transportation and logistics challenges, we're gonna be able to count on on Central Asia as much as those countries in sort of the bricks Camp Can.
非洲是个未知数,那是个很有意思的地区,每个国家情况都不一样。我去那边出差的时候,就看到中国人和俄罗斯人在资源行业里,跟我住同一家酒店,都在为自己的核项目锁定资源。
Africa is a jump ball, and that's a fascinating region where country by country and I see it when I travel there, and I see the Chinese and the Russians traveling in in the resource sector in the same hotels I'm staying in and trying to lock up resources for their nuclear programs.
我觉得特朗普政府现在也意识到了,像纳米比亚这样的国家,铀矿的产出很大程度上已经被中国人控制了。
And I think the Trump administration is now realizing, you know, countries like Namibia have largely now been, you know, kind of controlled or the the output of uranium mines out of Namibia has been largely controlled by the Chinese.
我想他们不希望这种情况蔓延到其他国家。
And I I think there's a desire to not see that spread to other countries.
所以那里有巨大的机会,我们正在关注,还有一些更独特的机会,甚至还没进入任何人的视野。
So there's enormous opportunities there that we're looking at and then more unique opportunities that aren't even on anyone's radar screen.
我的意思是,你提到了副产品生产,这确实可行。
I mean, there are the ability you mentioned by product production.
有些项目涉及镍、铜、金、磷酸盐,主要目标可能是铜,但矿化过程中也伴生铀。
There are projects with nickel, copper, gold, phosphates that you know, the the main focus may be copper production, but there is uranium occurring in the mineralization.
实际上,可能必须要把铀从铜精矿里分离出来,或者避免它进入尾矿或废石堆。
And it may be actually required that they remove that uranium from the copper concentrate or avoid having that in the tailings or the waste dumps that are created.
所以我们有机会介入,为一条非常小型的铀回路提供资金,把铀从主要商品中分离出来,推向市场,变成现金。
So we have an opportunity to come in and provide the financing for a very small very small uranium circuit, to take that uranium out of the the the the primary commodity and market that and turn it to cash.
这个来源每年可能只有20万英镑的产量。
And it may only be a £200,000 a year production source.
但对我们这种规模的公司来说,我们可以让它运转起来,同时还能帮那些基础金属和贵金属生产商解决一个问题。
But for a company our size, you know, we can make that work, and we solve a problem for, you know, the base and precious metal producer at the same time.
所以,我们确实对未来的项目管线感到兴奋。
So, again, we're really we're excited about the pipeline going forward.
我们很高兴能有更强劲的财务状况去追求这些机会。
We're excited to have, you know, stronger financial position to be able to go after this.
如果其他人也进入这个领域来挑战我们,我们只想拉开与任何新来者的距离,因为最终这会发生,我们也欢迎竞争。
And if there is others kinda coming into the space to challenge us, we just really wanna put distance between us and any newcomers into the space because, you know, eventually, it'll happen, and and we welcome the competition.
但现在,我们就是全力以赴。
But right now, we you know, it's pedal to the metal.
对。
Yeah.
不。
No.
斯科特,这是个好方向。
That's a good way to go, Scott.
感谢你关于中亚的评论。
Appreciate the comments there, the Central Asia comments.
显然,中东那边也会变得非常不可靠。
You know, obviously, Middle East will also be a lot less reliable.
你知道,那里的一些地缘政治行动会让我们失去朋友。
You know, some of the geopolitical actions there that we're gonna lose friends.
这一点毫无疑问。
There's no doubt about that.
有些错误已经犯下了,要修复关系、建立新的路线和合作伙伴,需要很长时间。
And some of the mistakes have been made already on some of that course, and that'll take a lot of time to repair and establish new routes and partners, etcetera.
回到你之前说的,转向现金流在这里会变得非常重要。
You know, back to what you said earlier, the move towards cash flow is gonna be really important here.
我觉得如果你看看铀以外的更广泛的特许权领域,比如那些中型的和大型的公司,你会发现他们的投资组合已经多样化了一些。
I think if you look at the broader royalty space outside of uranium, you know, look at some of the mid tiers out there, some of the majors, You know, they've diversified their portfolios a little bit.
并不总是百分之百的黄金。
It's not always a 100% gold.
里面也涉及基本金属。
There's base metals involved.
还有能源金属,如果你愿意这么叫的话。
There's energy metals, if you wanna call it that, involved.
你已经看到了一些这样的转变。
You've seen a bit of that transition out there.
而且,我认为大家也意识到,为了获得更好的投资者关注,尤其是在铀市场这样的地方,现金流很重要。
And then also, I think folks have realized in order to get better investor attention, especially in places like the uranium market, cash flow is important.
把现金流作为关键举措,我觉得这非常好。
And to have those cash flows as a key move, I think it's really good there.
随着你们逐渐扩大这个规模,无论你们是瞄准那些寻求增长加分红的投资者群体,还是其他类似的东西,取决于股价的价值,你们可能会考虑其他方式来提升这个价值。
And as you guys start to grow that profile a bit, whether you guys go after the demographic of investor that looks for growth plus a dividend, those types of things, dependent upon the value of the shares, you guys may look at other vehicles to improve that value.
但所有这些事情之后都会开始提上日程。
But all of those things start to come on the table thereafter.
而且我认为这一点非常重要,尤其是对于那些只投资于勘探阶段、只关注开发阶段的铀矿投资者来说。
And I think that that's really important, especially for the board uranium investor out there that's only gone into explore COS, that's only been at developed COS.
但很多这样的项目都失败了。
But a lot of those have failed.
很多都失败了。
A lot of them have failed.
它们要么无法交付成果,要么还在解决各种问题。
They've unable to deliver, or they're still working through kinks.
还有一些项目只是还没有机会在聚光灯下展示成果。
And then there's some that just haven't had that opportunity yet in the spotlight to deliver.
是的。
Yep.
所以,我想你们有所有这些不同的子类别。
So you have all those different subclasses, I suppose.
但当你看到这个时,我觉得现在会吸引更多人。
But when you look at this, I think it's now going to attract more people.
你们把这个交易敲定。
You guys get this deal closed.
你们开始展示一些这些策略。
You start to demonstrate some of these strategies.
感谢你带我们梳理了一遍。
And thank you for walking us through.
你确实带我们看了一些未来的开发资产,比如阿萨巴斯卡盆地正在发生的事情,还有其他一些地区,当然还有澳大利亚,我们也都提到了。
You did walk us through some of those future development assets, some of the things that are happening in Athabasca Basin, some of these other areas, Australia, of course, we we touched on.
如果你有什么想说的,不如我们让斯科特先聊聊市场的最新情况,特别是市场情绪,还有过去六个月里你这边出现的一些重大事件。
Maybe with any comments you have there, why don't we also get some initial market updates from you, specifically, Scott, on sentiment and then also some of the key events for you that have popped up in the last six months, material events.
对。
Yeah.
我其实已经听腻了数据中心的话题,但作为内部人士,你听到的那些值得注意的重大事件,还是想听听你的看法。
I'm I'm I'm tired hearing about data centers, but material events that you as an insider would hear about that were notable to you.
所以,市场情绪、重大事件,再加上你想对我说的任何话。
So sentiment, material events, plus any comments you wanted to make back at me.
听着。
Listen.
这是铀投资者问我最多的问题。我刚从佛罗里达的瑞克·鲁尔研讨会回来,那里聚集了很多高净值散户投资者。
This is the number one question that I get from uranium investors, and I just returned from, the Rick Rule symposium down in Florida, which is a high net worth retail investors down there.
我认为大家都认同,核能的叙事以及铀的供需基本面从未如此强劲,我有四十三年的经验可以证实这一点。
And I think everybody agrees that the narrative behind nuclear power and the supply and demand fundamentals for uranium have never been better, and I have forty three years of perspective to confirm that that's the case.
然后大家都会说,好吧。
And everyone goes, okay.
我们都明白。
We all get that.
那为什么铀矿股今年迄今下跌了百分之三四十呢?
Why are uranium equities, you know, trading down thirty, forty percent, you know, year to date?
我认为,坦率地说,大家的注意力被海湾战争从铀矿股上转移开了。
And I think the attention is frankly just been taken off of of uranium equities by the Gulf War.
在波斯湾局势解决之前,不管结果如何——这也不是我能决定的——但一旦解决了,市场的焦虑情绪就会消散。
And until the Gulf War is resolved, whatever that looks like, and that's above my pay grade to determine that, but when that is resolved, you know, that market anxiety will be lifted.
我觉得人工智能领域那种反复无常的情绪,不管我们愿不愿意,都会影响到我们。
I think there's a a lot of AI schizophrenia that impacts us whether we like it or not.
铀矿股在人工智能交易中属于基础设施板块。
Uranium equities trade in the infrastructure basket in the AI trade.
所以Navidea这周表现不错。
And so Navidea is having a good week.
铀矿股涨了。
Uranium equities are up.
Navidea这周表现不好。
Navidea is having a bad week.
我们跌了。
We're down.
我明白,我也知道,很多新增的电力需求,电网已经没法再满足了。
I get that, and I get, you know, you know, a lot of that increased electricity demand isn't gonna be able to be filled on the grid anymore.
如果你要建一个数据中心,而且你是超大规模云服务商,你就得自己建离网能源设施。
And if you are gonna build a data center and you're a hyperscaler, you're gonna have to build your own energy off grid capacity.
这可能会偏向天然气、核能和煤炭,而且不同地区可能需要不同的解决方案。
Now that's gonna favor natural gas, nuclear, and coal, and it may be different solutions for different regions in the country.
但这一点很重要,我们不要忽视这个事实。
But it's an important point, and, you know, let's not lose sight of the fact.
就算不再建任何数据中心,整个AI的故事也不存在,我们基础情景下核能发电量仍然要翻倍——440座反应堆,还有70座在建。
If there was not another data center built, in this the whole AI, story wasn't present, we're still doubling nuclear power under the base case, the 440 reactors, the 70 more under construction.
这些全都是数据中心和超大规模云服务商出现之前就有的。
That is all pre data center, pre hyperscaler.
所以,你可能对AI的增长规模有些怀疑,但不管它是否达到全部预期,还是只达到一半预期,都会推动小型模块化反应堆和新反应堆的需求。
So, again, and and I think you you may have some skepticism in terms of of the scope of AI the growth, but whether it grows, you know, to to full expectations or maybe half of expectations, that will drive SMR and new reactor demand.
只是具体能推动多少很难说。
Just hard to tell how much.
所以我觉得,这肯定可以看作是额外的红利。
And so I think we can view that certainly as as gravy.
如果这些公司开始把注意力转向燃料循环,那可能会带来一些波动,因为公用事业公司会突然发现,处于食物链顶端的那些企业,比如亚马逊的能源基础设施团队,会出现在各种会议上签合同,或者投资铀转化和浓缩项目。
And if these companies, start, you know, turning their attention to the fuel cycle, you could have a little bit of disruption there with utilities suddenly seeing, you know, top of the food chain, utilities suddenly seeing Amazon energy infrastructure, people showing up at conferences and signing contracts or making investments in uranium conversion or enrichment.
所以我觉得这是好事。
So I think that's good.
最后一点就是通胀和利率,这又超出了我的专业范围。
And then just, you know, the last is just, you know, inflation and and interest rates, which again is above my pay grade.
不过,如果海湾局势缓和,油价回落,出现供应过剩,通胀也可能随之下降,就像今天的数据里我们看到的那样。
But, you know, if as the Gulf War calms down, oil prices go back down, there's a glut, and inflation could follow suit as we saw a little bit even just, in today's numbers.
所以我对铀投资者的建议是:保持冷静,坐稳别动。
So my message for uranium investors is remain calm, remain seated.
但如果你正考虑加仓,那现在是个绝佳的机会——整个铀板块都在打折,这并非因为核能的基本面或铀的供需出了什么问题,而是因为一些全球性事件,坦白说,这些事件长期来看对我们这个行业的影响可能没那么大。
But if anything, if if if you're looking, you know, to add to your your portfolios, this is an incredible opportunity where the whole uranium basket is on sale, not because of any fundamental flaw in the nuclear thesis or uranium supply and demand, but rather global events that may or may not have that much impact in the long run, frankly, on our business.
这种脱节现象过去曾让人赚得盆满钵满,我觉得现在机会又来了。
So these kind of disconnects, you know, have made fortunes in the past, and I think there's an opportunity.
我认为这会在今年下半年真正显现出来。
And I think this really plays out in the second half of this year.
我觉得铀价一直卡在每磅85美元,有人就会问,你不担心铀价涨不上去吗?
I think the uranium price has been stuck at $85 a pound, and people say, well, aren't you concerned that the uranium price isn't going up?
我的反应是,不担心啊。
I'm like, well, no.
但你看,它也没跌下去。
But it, you know, hasn't gone down either.
现在在80多美元找到了新底部,没人再提每磅60或70美元了。
And finding a new floor in the eighties, no one's talking 60 or $70 a pound anymore.
如果底部在80多美元,而且大多数人预期价格会超过每磅100美元,我觉得它会从85涨到100,不是六周或六个月,而是六天,等市场那个弹簧真正弹起来的时候。
If we're talking a floor in the eighties and most expect prices to exceed a $100 a pound, I think it'll go from 85 to 100 in six days, not six weeks or months, when the market really that quilt spring really pops.
所以第二个最常被问的问题是,催化剂是什么,什么时候会发生?
And so that's the second most asked question is what's gonna be that catalyst, and when is that gonna happen?
我觉得在长期市场上已经能看到苗头了,大家都同意存在5000万磅的缺口。
I think you're already beginning to see it in the long term market where the deficit we we all agree there's a £50,000,000 deficit.
这个缺口在二十年内会扩大到20亿磅。
It's going to 2,000,000,000 over twenty years.
这总得在某个地方体现出来。
It's gotta manifest somewhere.
我觉得那些在寻求长期报价的公用事业公司,看到收到的报价后有点吃惊——他们在长期市场上根本看不到足够多的优质报价,或者收到的报价条款跟过去五年相比差别很大。
And I think utilities that are requesting long term proposals and seeing offers come in that are a little bit alarming to them is they're they're just not seeing the volume of quality offers in the long term market or the offers that are coming in are are at, terms that are very different than they would have seen over the last five years.
但这也很正常。
But that's only natural.
我的意思是,那些有产量可供签约的大型生产商,在过去五六年里大部分都已经签了合同。
I mean, you know, the the the larger producers with production available to contract have largely contracted over the last five, six years.
如果他们还有一些未承诺的剩余产量,他们是不会轻易放手的。
And if they have some remaining production uncommitted, they're not gonna give it away.
他们会提高基础价格、提高上限价格、提高下限价格。
They're gonna, you know, raise the base prices, raise the ceiling prices, raise the floors.
所以我觉得你已经开始看到这种情况了。
And so I think you're beginning to see that.
如果公用事业公司不喜欢他们在长期市场上看到的情况,他们通常可以像过去很多年那样,转向套利交易。
And if the utilities don't like what they're seeing in the long term market, they, you know, they typically could turn as they have for many, many years, turn to the carry trade.
好吧,我不喜欢生产商给我的报价。
Well, I don't like what the producers offer me.
这得靠你们的Traxxas,麦格理。
It totes your Traxxas, Macquarie.
给我来一个那种套利交易,基于低资金成本和充足库存的固定价格。
Give me one of those carry trades with a nice fixed price based on a low cost of money and abundant inventories.
给我来一笔这样的交易,我就再拖个两三年。
Give me one of those deals, and I'll just, you know, kick the can down the road for another two, three years.
那些套利交易现在已经没有了。
Those carry trades aren't available anymore.
我是说,你根本拿不到资金去做套利交易,而且利率也一直没什么吸引力。
I mean, you can't get the pounds to do the carry trade, and interest rates, you know, haven't exactly been that attractive.
所以现货市场就成了唯一的选择,而我们知道,如果公用事业公司需要在现货市场上采购比过去多得多的量,现货市场是能应付的。
So it really gives you the spot market as your only alternative, and we know the spot market can handle that kind of volume if the utilities have to procure significant volumes more than than they they have in the past on the spot market.
但如果市场供不应求,库存又基本消耗殆尽,那就像在玩抢椅子游戏,音乐很快就要停了。
But if we're in a deficit and the inventories are largely worked off, there's a game of musical chairs here, and the music's, kinda coming to a a stop here shortly.
而且我觉得,那些还没准备好的公用事业公司,情况并不都一样。
And I think those that kinda haven't and utilities are not all in the same boat.
有些公用事业公司非常具有战略眼光,也很聪明,通过签订合同组合来覆盖未来的需求,它们会做得很好。
There's utilities that have been extremely strategic and very clever about covering off future requirements with, you know, portfolio of contracts, and they'll do quite well.
但也有一些公司,最终只能依赖现货市场,市场要价多少,它们就得付多少。
But there's others that, you know, will find themselves in the spot market, you know, paying whatever the market will bear.
这样一来,现货价格就会突破每单位100美元,进而推高长期价格。
And that's how we're gonna get to spot prices above a $100 a band, and then that pushes the long term prices.
它们之间就是这样相互影响的。
And they, you know, they play off each other in that fashion.
所以,坦白说,我认为这种情况会在今年下半年出现,而且铀矿股会迎来一波反弹,收复前六个月的所有失地,并继续向上攀升。
So I think that's coming in the second half of this year, frankly, and I think you'll have a uranium equities rally that will gain back, you know, all of what we've lost in the first six months and continue to trend upwards from there.
不过,这只是一个前瞻性的说法。
But there's ever a forward looking statement.
就这些了。
That was it.
但我真的相信,这不仅仅是出于乐观,而是基于对供需基本面、公用事业行为以及地缘政治因素的冷静分析,所有这些都指向这个方向。
But I really believe that based on not just optimism, but a really sober look at supply and demand fundamentals, utility behavior, geopolitics all seem to be pointing that way.
谢谢你的分享,斯科特。
Appreciate the comments, Scott.
这些评论和见解真的很有价值。
Some really good comments here and the insights.
是的。
Yeah.
确实,很大一部分原因在于地缘政治。
Most certainly, a good portion of it here stands with geopolitics.
有些破坏性的交易,比如有些人去追黄金,或者追其他热门商品,像钨之类的。
Some of these destructive trades, you know, whether some of the folks are chasing gold or chasing some hot commodity somewhere else, tungsten or what have you.
当然,还有你提到的那些科技股交易,它们显然会影响某些公司及其驱动因素。
And then, of course, you've got these other technology trades as you mentioned that impact your, obviously, flaws with some of the individual companies and some of those drivers.
这种情况我们见过很多次了。
We've seen that plenty of times.
这种情况我们见过多少次了,而且还在继续上演?
How many times we've seen that one play out and still playing out?
所以它总会起到一定作用。
So that'll always play a part.
但当资金回流、市场情绪好转时,即使是表现最差的公司,在某个时间点、某个价位上,无论是期货价还是现货价,也会跟着上涨。
But when the rush does come back in and sentiment improves, you'll see even the worst of companies rise as well at some point, at some price when it comes to term price or spot price.
但我同意。
But I agree.
我觉得80年代那会儿的整合做得很好。
I think the the consolidation's been great at the eighties here.
感觉好像已经持续很久了。
It seems like it's it's been there for a long time.
对。
Yeah.
至少看起来是这样。
At least that's the way it seems.
所以,你知道,我很期待看到下一阶段继续推进,我相信我们还会再次见证。
So, you know, looking forward to seeing this next phase here continue to progress, and I think we will see it yet again.
然后,当然,还有一些广泛的市场担忧,比如市场大跌时,股市自然会避险,铀矿股也不例外。
And then, of course, you just have, you know, some of those broad market concerns, whether market dumps, of course, there's gonna be risk off in equities, and uranium equities will be no different.
当然,我们会看到那些暂时的下跌,这肯定会发生。
Of course, we're gonna see those temporary declines that will certainly happen.
你知道,我们拭目以待,现在做好相应的布局是好事。
You know, we'll wait and see here, and it's it's good to be positioned accordingly.
当然,不同的人对如何最好地配置自己的投资组合有不同的看法,这里确实有些差异。
And, of course, different folks have different takes on how that's going to be best suited for their portfolio, of course, a little bit of differences there.
然后,关于合同质量的问题,谢谢你提到这一点。
And then the quality of contracting, thank you for touching on that.
即将到来的合同质量问题。
The the quality of contracting issue there that's coming.
显然,这已经到了尾声阶段。
Obviously, this is on the tail end.
高质量的东西基本上都被抢光了。
All the high quality stuff generally been sucked up.
还剩一点点储备。
There's a little bit of reserve.
Cameco在按自己的策略走。
Cameco is playing its strategy.
其他公司也在执行自己的策略,但在目前这种市场环境下,质量下降是意料之中的事。
Other folks out there are playing their strategy, but that quality decline is to be expected in these conditions that we have in this market.
当然,这种情况会慢慢改变。
And then, of course, that will slowly change over time.
然后还有一些其他的替代途径。
And then you have some of those alternative routes.
要知道,这些都是非常大的公用事业公司。
You know, these are very big utilities.
它们有其他创造性的办法,可以说在一定程度上能自己掌握供应的命运。
They have other creative ways to help, I guess, in part determine their own destiny with respect to supply.
他们有那种资本开支的能力。
They have that capital check writing capability.
我们还没看到那种极端情况,但我认为迟早会出现的。
We haven't seen those extremes yet, but I do think we will at some point.
这周有个例子,你知道,现在和未来最大的消费国之一就是印度,他们向全球招标,寻找能协助他们进行铀矿股权投资的公司。
Well, an example this week, you know, one of the biggest consumers now and going forward is India, and they've solicited bids for companies that can assist them, with a global process to make equity investments in uranium mines.
所以大家应该留意这一点。
So that should be people should take note of that.
你知道,如果市场开始收紧的话。
You know, if things start to tighten okay.
如果你拥有矿山,那就能确保自己的承购权。
If you own the mine, then you can assure yourself an offtake.
所以,在铀市场上,追那最后五毛钱或一块钱已经没那么重要了,真正重要的是把供应牢牢锁定。
So we're it's quickly becoming less important in the uranium market to chase the last 50¢ or a dollar and becoming more important to actually get the supply locked down.
而且,这些股权投资肯定不会便宜,但可能比不采取战略行动要划算得多。
And let's let's I mean, those equity investments won't come cheaply here, but but they might actually be a lot cheaper than not acting strategically.
而且,你知道,过去五六年里,公用事业公司一直在签合同。我了解那些公司——生产商报告的平均售价是多少。
And, you know, if, you know, utilities have been contracting over the last five, six years, I mean, I know what, you know, companies report producers report as their average selling price.
但另一方面,有些公用事业公司还在按每磅50到60美元的价格,通过带价格上限的长期合同购买铀。
Well, the other side of that are utilities that are still buying uranium at $50.60 dollars a pound under long term contracts with ceilings.
如果他们不得不支付,他们得看到现货价格在一段时间内维持在150美元的水平。
If they had to pay, they had to see a market where the spot price was a $150 for a period of time.
他们会气得跳脚,但不会为整个换料过程支付150美元——他们得给反应堆加燃料。
You know, they'll scream bloody murder, but they're not gonna pay a $150 for the entire reloads that they're they're fueling their units.
他们会有一个混合价格,可能跟现在的水平差不了太多。
You know, they're gonna have a blended price, which is maybe not that far above where we are today.
我觉得,这对很多公用事业公司来说是一颗难以下咽的苦药,但市场可能正需要一段持续的高价期,来刺激澳大利亚、非洲、美国和加拿大的矿山生产,这样才能让市场更稳定。
And I think, again, it's a bitters pill to swallow for a lot of utilities, but that's probably what the market needs is a period of extended high prices to stimulate the mine production in Australia, Africa, US, Canada that's gonna make the market more stable.
我的意思是,如果价格长期无法激励新矿开发,那就会陷入铀价200美元的局面。
I mean, the longer, you know, prices fail to incentivize new mines, that means we're gonna I mean, then you get into scenarios with $200 uranium.
所以我认为,我们正面临这个现实。
So I think we're, you know, we're facing that realization.
但请记住,铀的密度是它最大的优势之一,而且能量密度高,使得它只占成本的10%。
But remember, I mean, uranium the density of uranium is is one of its greatest strengths and, you know, energy density, causes it to be 10% of cost.
现在,如果成本上升,我不是说对费率管制或商业电厂没有影响,但不像天然气那样,燃料价格上涨可能导致电厂不经济。
Now, you know, if that cost goes up, I'm not saying it's without impact to both rate regulated or merchant plants, but it's not like natural gas where an increase in the fuel price can cause the plant to be uneconomic.
它可能会有一些影响,但我们在那里有独特的地位。
It it may have some impact, but we have a unique position there.
但这可能必须发生,因为我们确实需要那个管道更加稳健,有更多的新矿。
But it it probably needs to happen because we just we need that pipeline to be a lot more robust with new minds.
而且我认为,作为投资者,这很有趣。
And and I think as investors, that's interest.
我本人作为潜在的权益金和流投资者,面对我在世界各地考察的这些各种项目。
I mean, I I face it as a potential royalty and stream investor with all these various projects that I visit around the world.
有些项目可能在五年前我们看不上,但随着成本曲线上升,会带来另一批矿,这些矿曾经被认为不经济,但现在可能进入考虑范围,如果用高尔夫术语来说,就是‘入围’。
Some of these that we might have dismissed maybe five years ago, maybe with the cost curve going up, it brings in a whole another group of minds that maybe were at one time thought uneconomic that maybe now make it into the cut, if you wanna use the the golf term.
对投资者来说,这将是一个激动人心的时刻。
You You know, it's gonna be exciting time for investors.
对我们这些做矿权投资的人来说,这很令人兴奋,因为我觉得我们看到了对新矿投入大量资金的需求。
It's exciting for us in the royalty space because I think we we see a need for a lot of capital invested in new mines.
对。
Yeah.
电力公司会想办法渡过这个难关的。
The utilities will make their way through this.
有些公司很有创意,也很聪明,但另一些就不怎么样了。
Some of them have been creative, some of them have been very smart, others not so much.
现在他们自己也在考虑进入自己的领域,比如有些科技公司想自己供电等等。
And they even themselves now are looking at various entrance into their own sector as well, whether you're looking at a tech company that's looking to supply its own power, etcetera.
所以,这已经是板上钉钉的事了,我们会看到他们继续发挥创意,去填补和确保未来所需的资源。
So it's the writing's most certainly on the wall here, and so we'll see that creativity continue to evolve here with how they fill and secure what they need for requirements going forward here.
斯科特,在我们结束之前,感谢你今天多花时间陪我们。
Scott, just before we go, I I appreciate the extra time today with us.
关于交易规模,你现在也看到了,你们通过这次与斯威特沃特的交易,规模正在扩大。
Deal size, just you are seeing now, you guys are growing in size with this transaction here with Sweetwater.
跟那些正在收听的朋友们聊聊吧,可能是一些公司的CEO或董事总经理。
Just talk about maybe for some of those interested folks out there listening in, maybe CEOs, managing directors of companies that are listening in.
你知道,就简单说说你们现在会关注什么,考虑到你们未来的方向,比如在哪个司法管辖区、什么规模的交易或项目你们感兴趣。
You know, just talk a little bit about what you guys would look at now given where you're headed in terms of maybe a jurisdiction, a deal size type of project that you guys have interest in.
可能不是那种长期的铀矿勘探项目,而是更接近现金流开发的那种。
Maybe not so much on, long term uranium exploration projects, but maybe stuff that's more closer to cash flow development.
所以在结束前,简单聊聊这个。
So just talk a little bit about that before we go.
好的。
Yeah.
你知道,我觉得最近交易规模变化挺大的。
You know, I I would say that the deal size, you know, has ranged lately.
我们在努纳武特的一个勘探项目上投了100万美元,买的是未来的权利金,这算是个小布局。
I think we made a $1,000,000 investment on, future royalties on a a project exploration project in Nunavut, which, you know, is a tuck away.
就是投一笔钱,然后放着等未来升值。
You know, you just make that investment, and you tuck it away for future value.
对于那些更成熟的项目——我得说,二级市场上仍然存在一些权益金或权利金,有时它们被公司持有。
For the projects that are more and I and I will say there still are royalties and stream or royalties that exist in the secondary market that sometimes are resting in corporate holdings.
这些是并购活动留下的残余。
They're remnants of m and a activity.
它们可能是土地所有者。
They might be landowners.
也可能在家族信托里,由个人持有,我们一直在发现并跟进这些机会。
They may be in family trusts, you know, with individuals, and we continue to uncover those and pursue those.
这些通常规模较小,在一千万美元以下的收购。
And those tend to be smaller, you know, under under $10,000,000, acquisitions.
但我们目前80%的工作是新的矿山融资,规模在两千五百万到五千万美元之间。
But the 80% of what we're doing now is new mine financings, and that's falling in the 25 to $50,000,000 range.
所以如果一个项目需要一亿美元,我们可能还没到那个阶段。
So if the project needs a 100,000,000, we probably, you know, are not yet at a stage.
我们不能让投资组合中单个项目对分散风险造成过大影响。
We we can't have one project in the portfolio, have an undue impact on our diversification risk.
所以这大概就是我们的理想投资规模。
So that's kind of the the the ideal ticket size for us.
随着我们不断壮大,财务实力和自由现金流增强,这个规模当然可以提升,但目前来看,这就是我们评估项目时的最佳切入点。
As we grow and we gain more financial strength and free cash flow, that obviously can go up, but, that's that's kind of the the sweet spot for us as we look at projects right now.
我鼓励听众中任何有实质性项目的人联系Scott,跟他聊聊。
I encourage the audience to anybody who has something material to contact Scott, have a discussion about that.
有很多不同的方式,也许有些项目正好适合公司。
There's lots of different ways that maybe there's something that fits for the company there.
就像我们在Sweetwater交易中看到的,如果项目合适,我们知道你们有能力在必要时筹集数亿美元,只要交易本身是对的。
And then as we've seen here with the Sweetwater deal, if it's the right deal, we know that you guys have the capability to get those hundreds of millions if needed if it's the right transaction.
谢谢,Scott。
Appreciate that, Scott.
关于你们目前正在关注的方向,以及你们继续执行战略的情况,这些信息很有价值。
Good information on, you know, what you guys are looking at now as you guys continue to execute on your strategy.
好了,Scott,今天真的很感谢你抽出时间。
Well, Scott, I really appreciate the time today.
要不我们先聊到这儿?
Why don't we leave it there for now?
期待今年随着事态发展,你能再回来继续聊聊。
And looking forward to having you come back to continue the conversation as things evolve this year.
对于正在收听的投资人来说,公司目前的市值大约是4亿美元。
For potential investors who are listening in, the company has a market capitalization of about 400,000,000 US dollars.
现阶段,为什么机构、家族办公室和散户投资者应该考虑把铀矿版税纳入投资组合?
Why should uranium royalty be considered within the institutional family office and retail investors portfolio at this stage?
我们目前被严重低估了。
Well, we're extremely undervalued.
仅从铀矿资产来看,由于整体市场压力,我们被低估了。而且随着本月交易完成,我们将成为全球最大的多元化非贵金属版税公司,现金流不是五年后才来,而是马上就能产生,这有望带来重新估值。
Undervalued just from the uranium assets given the pressure that we've seen from the broader markets and, you know, the potential to rerate as you know, we'll emerge with this deal closing this month as the largest diversified non precious metals royalty company in the world with, you know, precious cash flows coming in not five years from now, but, immediately.
当然,我们会看到这种重新估值。
You know, certainly, we'll see that rerating.
不过我认为,对于铀矿投资者来说,我们继续提供了一个不错的替代选择,不同于直接的铀矿股票、实物商品信托或ETF。
But I think, you know, for the uranium investors, we continue to provide a nice alternative to the straight uranium equities or the physical commodity trusts or the ETFs.
所以,每个铀投资组合里都应该配置URC,作为一部分风险敞口。
So every every uranium portfolio should have URC in there for a a portion of your exposure.
不过,真的很感谢你今天抽出的时间。
But I really appreciate, the time spent today.
更多信息可以访问Uraniumroyalty.com。
Uraniumroyalty.com will be a source for additional information.
如果你是股东,还没投票的话,应该已经收到会议材料了。
If you're a shareholder and you haven't voted, you should have received the circular materials.
如果没收到,可能需要联系你的券商,投票截止日期是下周三,7月20号。
If you haven't, you might need to contact your broker, but the vote closes on, July 20 next week.
目前我们看到的支持率是99%,而且得到了大小股东的广泛口头支持。
So far, we're seeing 99% support, and we've had lots of verbal support from large and small shareholders.
所以我们很乐观,预计未来两周内事情会按计划顺利推进。
So, we're optimistic that things close, as expected, hopefully, in the next two weeks.
斯科特,大家怎么联系你最方便?
Scott, and what is the best way for folks to get in touch?
Uraniumroyalty.com 是最好的信息来源,或者如果你想联系我,也可以去那里。
Uraniumroyalty.com is, is the best source of information, or if you need to to contact, me.
和你聊天总是很愉快,我们期待年底再聊,看看情况如何发展。
Always a pleasure to talk, and we're looking forward to talking again around the end of the year and see where things go.
斯科特,今天真的很感谢你抽出时间。
And, Scott, really appreciate the time today.
好的。
Great.
谢谢你,安德鲁。
Thank you, Andrew.
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