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我知道你喜欢有趣且发人深省的对话和想法,因为你听的是《你应该知道》这个节目。
I know you like interesting and thought provoking conversations and ideas because you listen to something you should know.
所以让我推荐另一档你一定会喜欢的播客。
So let me recommend another podcast I know you will enjoy.
它是《乔丹·哈宾格秀》。
It's the Jordan Harbinger Show.
乔丹有一种独特的才能,能让嘉宾分享故事并提供发人深省的见解。
Jordan has a real talent for getting his guests to share stories and offer thought provoking insights.
多年来,我推荐了很多人去听,也收到很多反馈,说他们非常感激我向他们介绍了《乔丹·哈宾格秀》。
Over the years, I've sent a lot of people to listen, and I get feedback from people who are so glad I introduced them to the Jordan Harbinger Show.
最近,他讨论了山达基教以及在该组织中长大的孩子们。
Recently, he discussed Scientology and the children who are raised in that organization.
这是一场引人入胜的对话。
It's a fascinating conversation.
他还与朗达·帕特里克博士探讨了如何在现代世界中保护自己的身心,而这比你想象的要难得多。
And he talked with doctor Rhonda Patrick about how to protect your mind and body from the modern world, and it's tougher than you think.
我跟乔丹相当熟了。
I've gotten to know Jordan pretty well.
我们经常交谈,说实话,他是个非常聪明、富有洞察力的人,做的播客简直太棒了。
We talk frequently, and I tell you, he is a very smart, insightful guy who does a hell of a podcast.
在Apple播客、Spotify或你收听播客的任何平台,都可以收听《乔丹·哈宾格秀》。
Check out the Jordan Harbinger show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
今天在《你应当知道的事情》节目中,关于肢体语言,你的肚脐会透露大量信息。
Today on something you should know, in the world of body language, your belly button speaks volumes.
接着,我们会介绍一种真正有效的策略,帮助你在不饿的时候停止进食。
Then a strategy to stop eating when you're not hungry that really seems to work.
事实上,我诊所里有一位病人。
In fact, I had a patient in my clinic.
她每天晚上都会吃掉一整袋薯片。
She used to eat a whole bag of potato chips every night.
于是我让她做一个简单的实验:吃饭时留意自己,问自己吃多少片才够。
So I asked her to do a simple experiment to pay attention as she ate and ask herself how many chips is enough.
你能猜出她最后停在了几个吗?
Can you guess how many she stopped at?
此外,还有一些在英语中最令人反感的词汇和短语,以及我们为何常常不理解巧合、预测和随机性的真实运作方式。
Also, some of the most despised words and phrases in the English language and why we often don't understand how coincidences, predictions, and randomness really work.
所以我们
So we
我们认为随机性应该是分布均匀的。
think of randomness as being well spaced out.
当我们挑选彩票号码时,往往会把它们安排得非常均匀。
When we pick our lottery numbers, we tend to space them out really nicely.
但实际上,在英国彩票的所有抽签中,有一半会出现两个连续的数字,但我们却不认为这是随机的。
But, actually, in half of all lottery draws from that UK lottery, you would see two consecutive numbers coming up in the draw, but we don't think of that as random.
所有这些内容,今天都在《你应当知道的事情》节目中。
All this today on Something You Should Know.
啊,摄政时期。
Ah, the Regency era.
你可能知道这是《布里奇顿》的故事背景时代,或者简·奥斯汀创作小说的时期。
You might know it as the time when Bridgerton takes place, or as the time when Jane Austen wrote her books.
摄政时期也是社会变革、性丑闻频发,或许还是英国历史上最糟糕国王的时代。
The Regency era was also an explosive time of social change, sex scandals, and maybe the worst king in British history.
《粗俗历史》的新一季全面聚焦摄政时期——舞会、礼服与所有丑闻。
Vulgar history's new season is all about the regency era, the balls, the gowns, and all the scandal.
在你收听播客的任何平台搜索并收听《粗俗历史》的摄政时期专题。
Listen to Vulgar history, regency era, wherever you get podcasts.
《你应该知道的事》,提供引人入胜的资讯、世界顶尖专家的见解,以及你生活中能用得上的实用建议。
Something you should know, fascinating intel, the world's top experts, and practical advice you can use in your life.
今天,由迈克·卡鲁瑟斯为你带来《你应该知道的事》。
Today, something you should know with Mike Carruthers.
嗨,欢迎收听。
Hi, and welcome.
如果你是新听众,那我们一直在等你,很高兴你来了。
And if you're a fairly new listener, well, we've been waiting for you, and we're glad you're here.
我要指出的是,无论你用哪个平台收听这个节目,你都会看到一个列表,里面 literally 有数百集往期节目,其中大多数依然非常值得听。
And I would point out that on whatever player you're listening to this on, you will see a list, and there are literally hundreds and hundreds of previous episodes, most of which hold up pretty well.
如果你还没机会去探索,我相信你会在里面发现一些非常精彩、你一定会喜欢的节目。
And if you haven't had a chance to explore, I think you'd find some great, great episodes in there that you would really enjoy.
今天第一个话题,我想聊聊肢体语言。
First up today, I want to talk about body language.
我相信你一定听说过,身体的不同部位会传递信息,比如你交叉双臂或双腿、如何进行眼神交流或握手。
I'm sure you've heard that different parts of the body say things like when you cross your arms or your legs or how you make eye contact or shake hands.
所有这些行为都会向你交谈的对象传递某种信息。
All of that sends a message to the person you're talking to.
但你可能不知道,你的肚脐也会传递信息。
But you may not know that your belly button also sends a message.
肢体语言研究所所长珍妮恩·德赖弗表示,当你调整身体姿势,让肚脐朝向你正在交谈的人时,这比眼神交流更能传达出真正的兴趣。
Janine Driver, president of the Body Language Institute, says when you shift your body so that your belly button is pointing at the person you're talking to, it communicates true interest, even more than making eye contact does.
肚脐法则实际上是在20世纪30年代被发现的,并被证明是判断一个人兴趣程度非常可靠的指标。
The belly button rule was actually discovered in the 1930s and has proven to be a very reliable indication of someone's interest.
所以,如果有人在和你说话时,他们的肚脐朝向另一个方向,那这个人可能并没有太大的兴趣。
So if someone is talking to you and they have their belly button pointed in a different direction, that person probably isn't very interested.
这一点是你应该知道的。
And that is something you should know.
我猜你,以及几乎所有人,都曾在不饿的时候吃过东西,或者在明明知道已经吃饱了之后还继续吃,之后又感到后悔。
My guess is that you, and pretty much everyone else, that you have eaten when you're not hungry, or you've continued to eat after you knew you were full and perhaps later regretted it.
通常情况下,我们吃多的食物并不是最健康的,这可能是你身上多出几斤肉的原因之一。
Oftentimes, the foods we overeat are not the healthiest and could be one of the reasons you have a few extra pounds you wish you didn't.
那么,如果有一种方法能让你停止在不饿的时候吃东西,该多好?
So, what if there was a way to stop doing that, to stop eating when you're not hungry?
我想让你听听我的嘉宾,医生的话。
I'd like you to listen to my guest, Doctor.
朱德·布雷弗。
Judd Brewer.
他是布朗大学公共卫生学院的教授,对此进行了大量研究。
He is a professor at the Brown University School of Public Health, and he's done a lot of research on this.
他写了一本名为《我们为何在不饿的时候进食以及如何停止》的书。
He's author of a book called The Why We Eat When We're Not Hungry and How to Stop.
他还开发了一款应用程序,帮助你应对这个问题。
And he has also created an app that helps you deal with this.
嗨,朱德。
Hi, Jud.
欢迎来到《你应该知道的事》。
Welcome to Something You Should Know.
谢谢邀请我。
Thanks for having me.
在不饿的时候进食这种经历,我想每个人都经历过。
So the experience of eating when you're not hungry is is something I think everyone's had.
我知道我有过,甚至在当时还会想,我为什么要吃这个?
I know I've had it and wondered, like, even in the moment, like, why am I eating this?
这有什么意义呢?
What's the point?
我不饿,但就是很难停下来。
I'm not hungry, but it's hard to stop.
那么,这里到底发生了什么?
So what is it that's going on here?
是的。
Yes.
这其实是对一种非常有用的生存机制的误用。
It's it's kind of a misappropriation of a very helpful survival mechanism.
我的意思是,我们最根本的生存本能之一就是在饿的时候进食。
And what I mean by that is that one of our most fundamental survival instincts is to eat when we're hungry.
这种机制是通过一种叫做强化学习的学习过程建立的,这个过程很简单,大致如下:想象一下我们的远古祖先在大草原上觅食。
And it's set up on a based on a a learning process called reinforcement learning, which is pretty simple, and it and it kinda goes like this where, you know, imagine our ancient ancestors out on the savannah foraging.
他们看到食物,就吃掉它,然后胃部会向大脑发送多巴胺信号,提醒他们记住吃了什么以及在哪里找到的。
They would see some food, they would eat the food, and then their stomach would send this dopamine signal to their brain that said, remember what you ate and where you found it.
这就是我们现在所说的正强化和负强化的基础。
And that is the basis for what we now call in modern day positive and negative reinforcement.
当我们学习如何避免危险时,同样的机制也在发挥作用。
The same processes at play when we're learning how to avoid danger.
我们会记住危险在哪里,并学会避开它。
We remember where the danger is, we learn to avoid it.
所以这些机制,你知道,从生存角度来看非常有用,但我们的聪明大脑开始意识到:等等。
So these processes, you know, very helpful from a survival standpoint, yet our very smart brains start learning, oh, wait a minute.
例如,当我感到无聊时,我可以利用同样的负强化过程。
Well, I can use the same negative reinforcement process, for example, when I'm bored.
所以如果我感到无聊,这感觉并不好,和危险有类似的性质。
So if I'm bored, that doesn't feel very good, which has the same flavor of danger.
对吧?
Right?
危险是令人不愉快的。
Danger is unpleasant.
当我们感到无聊时吃东西,我们就学会了:哦,吃东西能让我从无聊中分心。
And then when we're bored and we eat something, we learn, oh, eating something, you know, distracts me from the boredom.
因此,我们通过负强化学会避免无聊,这么说吧。
And so we learn to kind of avoid boredom, so to speak, through negative reinforcement.
所以我们学会在无聊时吃东西,然后这种行为逐渐演变为压力进食、安慰性进食,以及在感到孤独时进食等各种情况。
So we learn to eat when we're bored, then, you know, that nuances into stress eating and comfort eating and, you know, eating when we're lonely and all of these things.
此外,正强化过程也会介入,当我们学会将庆祝等积极事件与食物联系起来时。
And on top of that, the positive reinforcement process, kicks in when we learn to associate positive things like celebrations with food.
因此,我们在退休聚会、同事的生日派对或其他类似场合开始进食,即使我们并不饿。
And so we start eating at a retirement, you know, for a colleague or at a birthday party or something like that that even when we're not hungry.
所以我在想,如果这一切都是真的,为什么现在这种情况比过去更普遍呢?
So what I wonder about, if that is all true, is why this is happening more now than in the past.
如果你回顾四十年代和五十年代,人们并没有那么胖。
If you look back at the forties and the fifties, people weren't so heavy.
他们当时一定没吃那么多东西。
They must not have been eating so much.
现在发生了什么,而那时却没有?
What's going on now that wasn't going on then?
这是个很好的问题。
It's a great question.
有几个因素在起作用。
There are a couple of things at play.
其中一个因素是,你提到四十年代和五十年代,这很有趣,因为正是从那时起,人们开始开发包装食品。
One is and it's interesting that you mentioned the forties and fifties because that's when people started developing packaged foods.
在此之前,你基本上得从零开始制作食物,而且食物很快就会变质。
Where before that, you basically had to make food from scratch, and then it would go bad in a little while.
因此,我们越来越远离食用那些最少加工的全食物,而更多地转向加工食品。
So we've moved more and more away from eating, you know, whole foods that's minimally processed and more toward processed food.
我想称它们为‘类食物物体’,比如多力多滋,当年《洋葱报》曾有一条精彩的讽刺标题,说多力多滋庆祝其第百万种成分。
And I'd like to call them food like objects, so things like Doritos, where The Onion had this great satirical headline where they said Doritos celebrates its one millionth ingredient.
这些食品不仅设计得方便,比如已经切成一口大小,随时可吃,我们无需切配或准备,甚至可以放在抽屉里千年都不会坏。
And these things are not only designed for convenience, where we can have bite sized pieces already, you know, ready for us, we don't have to cut anything up, we don't have to prepare anything, and they can be in our drawer for a thousand years, and they'll still be, you know, they'll still be good.
但更重要的是,食品设计还朝着‘愉悦点’和‘瞬时热量密度’等方向发展,以让食物更具成瘾性。
But on top of that, the designing has gone toward things like bliss points and vanishing caloric density to make food more addictive.
所以解释一下你所说的愉悦点和热量迅速消失是什么意思。
So explain what you mean by bliss points and vanishing caloric density.
愉悦点我认为实际上是食品工程师开发出来的。
So a bliss point is I think it was actually developed by food engineers.
它描述的是盐、糖和脂肪之间的完美平衡,能最大程度地刺激我们的多巴胺系统。
And what that describes is the perfect balance of salt, sugar, and fat for that kind of jacks our dopamine system the most.
你知道吗?
You know?
想想人们如何调整不同种类的冰淇淋,比如冰淇淋本质上就是糖和脂肪,再加上一点点盐。
So think of, you know, people trying to dial in different types of ice creams or things like that where ice cream is basically, you know, sugar and fat with a little bit of salt.
然后你再加一根椒盐脆饼,这样就能获得一些脆感和更多的盐分。
And then you put in a pretzel, you know, into that where you get a little bit of crunch and you get more salt.
你可以把愉悦点理解为一种真正让人对食物上瘾的方法。
So you can you can think of that list point as ways to truly try to maximally get people addicted to food.
而热量迅速消失,一个很好的例子就是奶酪泡或Cheetos,你吃下去后,它在嘴里瞬间融化,根本不需要咀嚼或吞咽。
And vanishing caloric density, a good example of that is a cheese puff or a Cheetos where you eat something, and then it disappears in your mouth without you having to chew it or swallow it.
你的身体会感到非常困惑,心想:我不是刚吃过东西吗?
And your body gets really confused and says, didn't I just eat something?
你的嘴巴会说:这里什么都没有啊。
And your mouth says, well, there's nothing here.
因此,这会愚弄并欺骗我们的身体,让我们吃得更多。
And so that gets our fools our bodies and tricks our bodies into eating more.
那么请帮我理解一下,为什么不是每个人都受影响?
So help me understand then why it doesn't affect everybody.
有很多人并没有因为这些方便食品、垃圾食品而超重。
There are plenty of people who are not overweight because of these convenience foods, junk foods.
有很多人能够抵制这种诱惑。
There are a lot of people who resist that.
那这是为什么呢?
So why is that?
这是个很好的问题。
That's a great question.
我觉得是的。
And I think yeah.
我不认为有人能对这个问题给出非常清晰的答案。
I don't think anybody has a super clear answer on that.
这其中涉及很多不同的因素。
There are a lot of different variables that go into that.
你知道,一个人的基因会起作用。
You know, somebody's genes play a role.
一个人的环境也会起作用。
Somebody's environment plays a role.
他们如何将食物与不同的情绪联系起来也会产生影响。
How they've learned to associate food with different moods plays a role.
比如,如果一个人在焦虑或抑郁时学会了通过进食来应对,这和那些没有焦虑或抑郁情绪的人是不同的。
So for example, if somebody has learned, you know, if they have anxiety or depression and they've learned to eat as part of that, you know, that's different than somebody that's that's not feeling anxious or depressed.
难道这不是部分归因于意志力吗?
Doesn't it seem like part of this equation has to be willpower?
因为所有人都接触到同样的食物。
Because you've got people who are all exposed to the same food.
同样的食物对每个人都是可得的。
That same food is available to everybody.
很多人吃这种食物,但不会过量,而有些人会。
A lot of people eat that food, but don't overdo it, and some people do.
所以,意志力在这里不是起作用吗?
So isn't willpower playing a role here?
有些人能抵制暴饮暴食,有些人却做不到。
Some people can resist overeating, and some people can't.
要是这么简单就好了。
If only it were that simple.
如果这真是意志力的问题,我们就不会看到这种反复减肥的现象了,人们会说:哦,只要遵循这个食谱、这个饮食计划、这个卡路里数量,锻炼这么多就行了。
So if it were a willpower problem, we wouldn't have things like yo yo dieting, where people say, oh, just follow this recipe, follow this diet, follow this number of calories, you know, exercise this amount.
然后我们就会学习如何训练和提升意志力。
And then we would be learning to train and optimize willpower.
人们长期以来一直在努力提升意志力,而我现在认为我们已经更好地理解了为什么会这样。
People have been struggling to optimize willpower for a long time, and I think we have a better answer as to why that's the case now.
从神经科学的角度来看,意志力更像是一种神话,而不是肌肉。
From a neuroscience perspective, willpower is more myth than muscle.
如果你看看行为改变的方程式,其中并不包含意志力这个变量。
If you look at the equations for behavior change, they don't include a variable for willpower.
因此,神经科学家甚至不会谈论意志力,因为那并不是驱动行为改变的因素。
So neuroscientists don't even talk about willpower because that's not what drives behavior change.
我认为,这只是一个我们讲给自己听的美好故事。
So I think it's a nice story that we tell ourselves.
你知道,哦,是我自己有问题。
You know, oh, there's something wrong with me.
我只是需要更多的意志力。
I just need more willpower.
别人都能做到。
Other people can do it.
但当你审视科学时,这并不是一个关于意志力的故事。
But when you look at the science, it's not a story of willpower.
这实际上是一个关于强化学习的故事。
It's actually a story of reinforcement learning.
但我不知道该怎么说。
But it just see I don't know.
看起来是这样,你告诉我我错了,但看起来如果你在两个人面前放一盘饼干,一个人会说,哦,好啊。
It just seems like and, you know, you tell me I'm wrong, but it seems like, you know, I could put a a plate of cookies in front of two people and one person would go, oh, yeah.
谢谢。
Thanks.
我其实不饿,但我知道我不该吃,而另一个人则说,不。
I'm not really hungry, but I should I know I shouldn't, but and the other person says, no.
谢谢。
Thanks.
不。
No.
没什么兴趣,其实不饿。
Not not interest not really hungry.
不。
No.
谢谢。
Thanks.
这在我看来就是意志力。
That looks like willpower to me.
它看起来确实像是。
It can look like yeah.
关键是,你不知道别人脑子里在想什么。
And the thing is you don't know what's going on in somebody's head.
所以不是。
So no.
谢谢,可能有人正咬紧牙关,拼命挣扎着不让自己吃东西;也可能有人在心里想象吃那东西的感觉,然后决定自己并不饿,于是就不吃了。
Thanks could be somebody gritting their teeth and really struggling and trying to keep themselves from eating something, or it could be somebody mentally imagining what it's like to eat that and then determining that they're not hungry and not eating it.
而这实际上正是我们过去十年来对这类体验所做的一些研究,其他人也做过类似研究。
And that's actually what the you know, we've done a bit of research over the last decade now with this type of experience, and others have as well.
结果发现,我们实际上会根据过去的经验来预测自己未来的行为,并在真正经历之前模拟这一过程以做出决定。
And it turns out that we actually predict what we're going to do in the future based on past experience, and we simulate doing an experience before we do it to make a decision.
这与意志力毫无关系。
That doesn't have anything to do with willpower.
这完全取决于过去体验的奖励程度以及模拟的准确性,从而决定我们是否还会重复这一行为。
It has everything to do with how rewarding an experience was in the past and how accurate that simulation is so that we can determine whether we're gonna do it again or not.
而这实际上就是强化学习。
And that that's really about reinforcement learning.
所以我来举个我们实验室几年前在布朗大学做的一个实验例子:我们让人使用一款名为‘Eat Right Now’的应用,并在其中嵌入了一个工具,让他们在渴望进食时,想象自己吃下过去常吃的那部分食物。
So well, I'll just give you an example from an experiment that my lab did at Brown University now a couple of years ago where we had people use this app called Eat Right Now, and we embedded a a tool where we had them imagine eating an amount of food that they used to eat in the past and bef you know, as they had a craving to eat food.
我们会让他们想象自己完成进食的整个过程,如果之后他们仍然非常想吃,我们就让他们吃,但要求他们在吃的时候保持专注。
We'd have them imagine going through the exercise of eating it, and then if they were still know, if they really wanted it at that point, we'd have them go ahead and eat it, but we'd have them pay attention as they ate.
我们发现,通过这种练习,人们只需进行大约十到十五次,就能让大脑中对这种食物的奖励价值降至零以下,一旦奖励价值低于零,他们就会自然而然地改变这种行为,仅仅依靠大脑中奖励价值的转变即可。
And what we found was that through this exercise, it only took 10 or 15 times for somebody to change that reward value in their brain below zero, where it dropped below zero, and they would shift that behavior all through just having that reward value change in their brain.
它的运作方式被称为正向和负向预测误差。
And the way that works, it's called positive and negative prediction errors.
如果我们对吃巧克力蛋糕设定了某种奖励值,比如我们走进一家新面包店,需要学习他们的巧克力蛋糕好不好吃。
If we have a certain reward value set up for, say, eating chocolate cake, and let's say we go into a new bakery, and we have to learn is their chocolate cake good.
于是我们吃了他们的巧克力蛋糕。
So we eat their chocolate cake.
这是我们吃过的最棒的巧克力蛋糕。
Like the best chocolate cake we've ever had.
我们得到了所谓的正向预测误差。
We get what's called a positive prediction error.
它比预期的还要好。
It's better than expected.
我们的大脑会释放多巴胺,于是我们学到:这蛋糕真不错。
We get a dopamine spritz in our brain, and we learn, oh, this is good cake.
另一方面,如果蛋糕很糟糕,我们会得到负向预测误差,从而学到:别再回这家店了。
On the other hand, if it's crappy, we learn we get a negative prediction error, and we learn don't go back there.
只要我们专注于自己的行为,大脑就会一直在做这件事。
Our brain is doing this all the time as long as we're paying attention to what we're doing.
所以,如果一个人在暴食时保持专注,他们的身体很快就会意识到:嘿,这感觉不太好。
So if somebody pays attention as they overeat, it doesn't take long for their their body to register, hey.
要改变大脑中对暴食的奖励价值,就需要这种感受。
This doesn't feel very good, and for that to change that reward value in their brain of overeating.
我之前说过,大约需要10到15次。
Again, I said 10 to 15 times.
一旦你明白,当一个人清晰且持续地接收到这个信号时,大脑中的预测就会被更新,因此下次——只要他们保持专注——当他们再次想要暴食时,大脑就能模拟下一口会是什么感觉。
Once that you know, once somebody gets that signal and gets it pretty clearly and it's consistent, that updates those predictions in their brain so that the next time, as long as they're paying attention, the next time they go to overeat, their brain can simulate what's this next bite going to be like.
哦,这并不会那么棒,于是他们就更容易停下来了。
Oh, it's not going to be so great, and then it makes it easier for them to stop.
所以回到这一点上
So bringing that back to
你的
your
以饼干为例,如果一个人并不饿,但过去在不饿的时候吃过饼干,而且那次体验并不好,你知道,饼干可能味道不错,但我不确定你怎么样。
cookie example, if somebody is not hungry, right, and they have eaten cookies in the past when they haven't been hungry and it hasn't been a great experience for them, you know, cookies might taste good, but I don't I don't know about you.
对我来说,我会经历一波糖分飙升然后迅速崩溃,所以在不饿的时候吃饼干根本不值得。
For me, I get a sugar rush and crash, and it's just not worth eating cookies when I'm not hungry.
所以我能预想到那种感觉,说‘不’就容易多了。
So I could simulate that, and it's much easier to say, no.
谢谢,而不是强迫自己不吃饼干。
Thanks, than to try to force myself not to eat the cookie.
我们正在讨论在不饿的时候进食的问题。
We're discussing the issue of eating when you're not hungry.
我的嘉宾是布朗大学公共卫生学院的教授朱德·布雷弗医生,他著有《饥饿习惯:为什么我们在不饿时进食以及如何停止》一书。
And my guest is doctor Judd Brewer, professor at Brown University School of Public Health and author of the book, the hunger habit, why we eat when we're not hungry and how to stop.
如果你热爱Bravo的戏剧、流行文化混乱和真诚的见解,那你一定想把《All About TRH》播客加入你的订阅列表。
If Bravo drama, pop culture chaos, and honest takes are your love language, you'll want All About TRH podcast in your feed.
由罗克珊和尚塔尔主持,这档节目深入解析《Real Housewives》真人秀以及每个人群聊都在争论的那些时刻。
Hosted by Roxanne and Chantel, this show breaks down Real Housewives reality TV and the moments everyone's group chat is arguing about.
罗克珊自2010年起就开始爆料布雷沃的八卦。
Roxanne's been spilling Bravo tea since 2010.
是的,我们曾采访过像卢安伯爵夫人和特蕾莎·吉杜斯这样的《主妇》界元老。
And, yes, we've interviewed Housewives Royalty like Countess Luanne and Teresa Giudice.
睿智的剧评、内幕气息,毫无废话。
Smart recaps, insider energy, and zero fluff.
在苹果播客、Spotify或您收听的任何平台收听《All About TRH》播客。
Listen to all about TRH podcasts on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen.
每周更新新集。
New episodes weekly.
当他们年轻时,一支名为“石狼”的精英突击队曾反抗克雷特罗坎帝国的压迫统治,该帝国占领并主宰了银河系大多数宜居星球。
When they were young, the five members of an elite commando group nicknamed the stone wolves raged against the oppressive rule of the Crateroccan Empire, which occupies and dominates most of the galaxy's inhabited planets.
狼群为自由而战,但最终失败,留下无数尸体。
The wolves fought for freedom, but they failed, leaving countless corpses in their wake.
战败且心灰意冷后,他们放下了武器,各奔东西,都希望在这充满暴力与压迫的宇宙中寻得一丝宁静。
Defeated and disillusioned, they hung up their guns and went their separate ways, all hoping to find some small bit of peace amidst a universe thick with violence and oppression.
四十年后,他们各自努力求生,勉强维持生计,但一位旧友不愿让他们放下过去,而他们最深的敌人也同样不肯罢休。
Four decades after their heyday, they each try to stay alive and eke out a living, But a friend from the past won't let them move on, and neither will their bitterest enemy.
《石狼》是作家斯科特·西格勒创作的银河足球联盟科幻系列的第十一季。
The stone wolves is season 11 of the Galactic Football League science fiction series by author Scott Sigler.
你可以将它当作独立故事欣赏,也可以从第一季《新人》开始,完整收听整个银河足球联盟系列。
Enjoy it as a stand alone story or listen to the entire GFL series beginning with season one, the rookie.
在你收听播客的任何平台搜索斯科特·西格勒,拼写为 S I G L E R。
Search for Scott Sigler, s I g l e r, wherever you get your podcasts.
所以,贾德,当我真正去想的时候,我意识到,如果我要吃一块蛋糕,第一口一定是最好的。
So, Judd, when I think about it in the moment, I realize that, you know, if I'm gonna eat a piece of cake, the first bite's gonna be the best.
第二口并不会让体验翻倍,很快就会达到 plateau,趋于平稳,但要停下来仍然非常困难。
And the second bite doesn't make the experience twice as good, that it quickly plateaus, it it it levels off, but it can still be very hard to stop.
举个例子,我喜欢特易购的黑巧克力花生酱巧克力球。
So for example, okay, I like Trader Joe's dark chocolate peanut butter cups.
它们是世上最棒的食物之一。
They are one of the best things on earth.
但当我吃一个的时候,它非常好吃,第二个并不会让体验好上一倍。
But when I eat one, and it's very good, the second one isn't like doesn't make the experience twice as good.
我只是,但有时候我会吃第二个,因为……它就在那儿,所以我又吃了一个。
It's just I but but sometimes I'll eat a second one just because well, it's it's there and so I eat another one.
而且是的,它很好吃,但永远比不上第一个。
And yeah, it's good, but it's never as good as the first one.
是的。
Yeah.
我忍不住想,我为什么在吃这个?
And and I wonder why am I eating this?
但就是很难停下来。
But I it's hard to stop.
你实际上是在描述愉悦的 plateau(平台期)。
You're actually describing the pleasure plateau.
我不知道一包里通常有多少个,比如,如果你吃一个、两个、三个还是五个,我猜你可以绘制出这种愉悦感不再提升的平台期。
So I don't know how many cups come in a package that for, you know, for example, if you ate one versus two versus three versus five, my guess is you could map out not only that plateau where it's it's not as good.
对吧?
Right?
还是同样的食物,但味道没那么好了,因为我们的身体在说:嘿。
Still same same food, but it doesn't taste as good because our body is saying, hey.
我摄入太多了。
I'm getting too much here.
所以它会趋于平缓,然后我们就跌入我所说的过度放纵的悬崖。
And then at the end of so it flattens out, and then we go off of what I call the cliff of overindulgence.
当我们吃太多了,就会想:我为什么要这么做?
When we've eaten too much and we're like, oh, why'd I do that?
你实际上描述的是,只要我们留心,我们的身体非常擅长做的事。
So you're you're actually describing what our body is really good at doing as long as we're paying attention.
我们的身体非常擅长告诉我们,什么时候该停了。
What our body is really good at doing is telling us when we've had enough.
对吧?
Right?
这和说‘我为什么吃了三个’是不一样的。
Now that's different than saying, oh, why did I eat three?
我猜,而且这是一个任何人都可以自己做的实验:下次你吃这些食物时,我喜欢让人做这样一个实验,就是每一口都问问自己。
My guess is, and this is an experiment anybody can do for themselves, is the next time you go and eat those, I I like to have people use this experiment where I say, you know, ask yourself with each bite.
这一口比上一口更好、一样,还是更差?
Is this bite better than, the same as, or worse than the last one?
当它变得和上一口一样,甚至开始变得更差时,如果你停下来会发生什么?
And when it gets to the place where it's just the same as or even starting to get to the worst than, what happens when you stop?
停下来比继续吃感觉更好吗?
Does it feel better to stop than to keep going?
有些人可能得亲自做这个实验。
And somebody they might have to do the experiment.
这次我停下来的感觉,和继续吃的感觉有什么不同?
Well, what's it like when I stop this time versus when what's it like when I keep going?
他们会收集这些数据点,然后看看哪一个对他们来说更好。
They'll collect those data points, and they'll see which one is better for them.
通常,当我们停止时,感觉就对了。
Typically, it's when we stop.
并不是在我们过量食用的时候。
It's not when we overindulge.
过量食用并不会让人感觉好,我们的身体会告诉我们这一点。
Overindulgence doesn't feel good, and our body tells us that.
然后我们就会明白,嘿。
And then we learn, hey.
停止进食感觉更好,而且我们还会因此获得一个额外的好处:以后还能有更多这样的份量。
It feels better to stop, and we get a bonus out of that, which is we have more of those cups for later.
我喜欢这个想法。
I like that idea.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得这真的很棒,我打算试试。
I think that's a really I'm gonna try that.
不过,对于花生酱巧克力糖,可能就不行了。
Probably not with peanut butter cups, though.
有些东西我不是很喜欢,因为我不想破坏它——这可是我生活中的一大乐趣。
Something I like a little less because I'd I'd don't wanna screw my it's like one of my joys in life kind of thing.
好吧,我在这里强调一下。
Well, I'll just highlight here.
这实际上能让我们更享受食物,因为你的身体会说:是的。
This actually helps us enjoy the food even more because your body says, yes.
这才是最理想的。
This is optimal.
我太喜欢这个了。
I love this.
当你专注时,你会享受每一口。
And when you pay attention, you enjoy every bit of it.
当它变得没那么享受时,你就在那之前停下来。
And then when it becomes less enjoyable, you stop right before.
你在它变得不那么愉快之前就停下来。
You stop right before it becomes less enjoyable.
所以你实际上是在峰值时停止。
So you actually stop at the peak.
这才是最优的。
That's optimal.
所以我建议你用花生酱巧克力豆这么做。
So I would say do it with peanut butter cups.
你可能会更享受它们。
You might actually enjoy them even more.
但有时候我会想到其他我喜欢的食物。
But there are times when I I can think of other food I like.
也许是意志力吧,但我还是会吃。
Maybe it's willpower, but I'll eat it.
我会想要更多。
I'll want more of it.
我知道我不该吃,所以我停了。
I know I shouldn't, and I stop.
但从短期来看,我其实更希望之后能为没吃而感到高兴。
But I really would rather in the short term, later on, I'll be glad I didn't.
但从短期来看,我真的很想再吃一些,但我没吃,因为我知道那样并不好。
But in the short term, I I really would like some more, but I don't because I know that's, you know, that's not a good thing.
那么,这时候我们可以问一个问题:我需要什么,和我想吃什么?
Well, and this is where we can ask the question, what do I need as compared to what do I want?
通过问这个问题,我们可以检查身体是否需要更多热量。
And so by asking that question, we can check-in with our body to see if we need more calories.
对吧?
Right?
如果我们不吃冰淇淋当晚餐,那就可以说,好吧。
And if it's, you know, if we're not eating ice cream for dinner, you know, we can say, okay.
如果我还是饿了,那就满足身体的热量需求吧。
If I'm still hungry, you know, let's let's get the cal caloric needs met.
但通过问这个问题——我需要的和我想要的有什么区别——我们开始揭示出,如果是在没有饥饿感的情况下进食,究竟是什么在驱动这种享乐性饥饿。
And but also by asking that question, you know, what I need is compared to what I want, we can start to uncover what might be driving that hedonic hunger if it's eating in the absence of hunger.
因此,我们可能会意识到,哦,我感到无聊,或者孤独,或者沮丧。
So we might be, you know, might recognize, oh, you know, I'm bored or I'm lonely or I'm frustrated.
然后我们就可以真正地去满足这些需求。
And then we can actually kind of meet those needs.
所以我们可以问自己:我该如何满足这个需求?
So we can ask ourselves, well, how do I meet this need?
因为满足欲望而进食,通常只是一种逃避,而不是让引发我们沮丧的原因消失。
Because feeding our want, eating food is generally more of a distraction than you know, it's not gonna make whatever caused our frustration go away.
因此,我们可以把精力导向去发现我们真正需要什么,然后去满足这些需求,而不是仅仅放纵欲望,像抓痒一样随意应付。
So we can actually direct that energy toward toward finding out, you know, what we need and then meeting those needs as compared to, you know, just indulging that want, that scratching that itch.
帮我理解一下这种安慰性进食的概念,人们吃安慰食物来抚慰自己。
Help me understand this idea of comfort eating, you know, comfort food that people eat to soothe something.
这真的存在吗,还是只是多吃一点的借口?
Is that a real thing, or is that is that just an excuse to eat more?
这确实是真实存在的,也是一种多吃食物的借口。
It's absolutely a real thing and an excuse to eat more.
是的。
Yeah.
当我们把情绪和食物联系起来时,这确实是一种真实的现象。
So when we've associated mood with food, that's you know, it's it's a real thing.
有许多研究证明了我们如何以各种方式将这两者联系起来。
And there's fair amount of research showing all the different ways that we associate the two.
看来你确实需要学会如何专注,真正地与你正在吃的食物共处。
Well, it does seem that you have to learn how to pay attention, like, to to really be present with the food you're eating.
好消息是我们可以学会。
Well, the good news is we can learn.
事实上,几年前我在诊所接待过一位病人。
In fact, I had a patient in my clinic a couple of years ago.
她每天晚上都会吃掉一整袋薯片,而且这可不是小包装的。
She used to eat a whole bag of potato chips every night, and this wasn't a snack size.
这是一大袋薯片。
This is one a large bag of potato chips.
所以我让她做一个简单的实验,就是在吃的时候留意一下,问问自己吃多少片就够了。
So I asked her to just do a simple experiment, which was to pay attention as she ate and ask herself how many chips is enough.
你能猜到她最后停在了多少钱吗?
Can you guess how many she stopped at?
25片。
25.
两片。
Two.
什么?
What?
两片薯片。
Two potato chips.
是的。
Yes.
她找到了那两片,但她碰到了盐,你知道的,她的盐。
She found the two, but she hit her, you know, her salt.
可能是盐让她意识到该停了,她心想:好了。
It was probably the salt that pro that that ended it for her where she's like, okay.
我已经吃够了。
I've had enough.
我满足了那个渴望。
I scratched that itch.
你知道,她可以享受那两片薯片,但除此之外,那个渴望已经被满足了,而她吃完后感觉并不好,因为她并不饿。
You know, she could enjoy the two potato chips, but beyond that, that itch had been scratched, and she just didn't feel great after eating them because she wasn't hungry.
这是在晚上,她晚饭后已经吃过东西了,这仅仅是一种她长期以来形成的关联。
This was at night after she'd already had dinner, and this was just an association that she'd been making.
她一直试图戒掉,但其实只需要留意自己的身体,身体已经告诉她一切她需要知道的信息。
And she'd been trying forever to stop, but it was simply paying attention to her body and her body telling her everything that she needed to know.
我是这样想的:我们的身体远比我们的大脑更聪明,也更强大。
I I think of it this way, that our wise our our bodies are much wiser than our brains, and they're much stronger.
所以,我们的感受身体比思考的大脑更强大。
So our feeling body is much stronger than our thinking brain.
习惯就是在那儿形成的。
That's where we form habits.
我们就是在那儿对冲动做出反应的。
That's where we, you know, we act on our urges.
同时,我们也可以倾听自己的身体,知道什么时候该停下了,身体会告诉我们一切我们需要知道的信息。
And at the same time, we can also listen to our bodies and see when we've had enough, and they'll tell us everything we need to know.
你能跟我讲讲你开发的这个应用程序吗?它帮助人们应对这个问题。
Tell me a little bit about this app that you created to help people with this whole issue.
是的。
Yes.
我们开发了一个叫《现在吃对》的应用程序。
We created an app called Eat Right Now.
它现在已被美国疾控中心认证为糖尿病预防项目,旨在帮助人们提高对饮食习惯的觉察,从而改变行为,而不是依赖意志力。
It's actually now a a CDC recognized diabetes prevention program, based on helping people bring awareness to their eating habits and and bringing awareness in to help them change as compared to using willpower.
而且,这款应用叫 Eat Right Now,你可以在任何应用商店下载。
And, again, the app is called eat right now, and it's available wherever you get your apps.
我正在与贾德·布鲁弗医生交谈。
I've been speaking with doctor Judd Brewer.
他是布朗大学公共卫生学院的教授,也是《我们为何在不饿的时候进食以及如何停止》一书的作者。
He is a professor at Brown University School of Public Health, and he is author of the book The Why We Eat When We're Not Hungry and How to Stop.
节目说明中提供了这本书的链接。
There is a link to that book in the show notes.
我也会把应用名称放在节目说明里,以防你正在开车,没法记下来。
And I'll put the app name in the show notes too in case you're driving and can't write it down.
谢谢您,医生。
Thank you, doctor.
不客气。
My pleasure.
你好,我是《最长最短时间》播客的希拉里·弗兰克,这是一档获奖播客,主题是育儿与生殖健康。
Hey, it's Hillary Frank from The Longest Shortest Time, an award winning podcast about parenthood and reproductive health.
我们会讨论性教育、避孕、怀孕、身体自主权,当然还有各个年龄段的孩子。
We talk about things like sex ed, birth control, pregnancy, bodily autonomy, and, of course, kids of all ages.
但你并不需要是父母才能收听。
But you don't have to be a parent to listen.
如果你喜欢关于人际关系以及——你知道的——月经的令人惊讶、幽默又感人的故事,《最长最短的时间》就是为你准备的。
If you like surprising, funny, poignant stories about human relationships and, you know, periods, The Longest Shortest Time is for you.
你可以在任何播客应用中找到我们,或者访问 longestshortesttime.com。
Find us in any podcast app or at longestshortesttime.com.
你一直在做预测。
You make predictions all the time.
你预测今天会发生什么,从这里到那里需要多长时间。
You predict what's going to happen today, how long it's gonna take to get from here to there.
你预测去某个地方时会花多少钱。
You predict how much money you're going to spend when you go somewhere.
你一直在不断做出预测。
You're constantly making predictions.
从某种意义上说,当你买彩票时,你是在预测中奖号码。
In a sense, when you buy a lottery ticket, you're predicting the winning numbers.
我们大多数人并不擅长这个,但这就是它的本质。
Most of us aren't very good at that, but that's what it is.
这是一种预测。
It's a prediction.
有些事情我们相当擅长预测。
Some things we're pretty good at predicting.
其他事情则不然。
Other things, not so much.
然而,如果你理解一些原理,你就能更好地预测自己的未来。
However, you can get better at predicting your future if you understand a few principles.
这是基特·莱特斯的说法。
That's according to Kit Yates.
他是英国的一名数学科学高级讲师。
He is a senior lecturer of mathematical science in The UK.
他以前来过这里,他最新的书名为《如何预期意外:预测的科学与何时不该预测的艺术》。
He's been a guest here before, and his latest book is called How to Expect the Unexpected, The Science of Making Predictions and the Art of Knowing When Not To.
嗨,基特。
Hi, Kit.
欢迎再次来到《你应该知道》。
Welcome back to something you should know.
嗨,迈克。
Hi, Mike.
谢谢你的邀请。
Thanks for having me.
你说有一些基本原理可以应用于对未来做出预测,从而提高准确性,但也有很多事情是无法这样做的。
So you say there there are some basic principles that you can apply to making predictions about the future that can improve the accuracy, but there are plenty of things where you you can't do that.
我的意思是,有些事情你根本无法预测。
I mean, the you can't predict.
不管有什么原理,我都无所谓。
I don't care what principles there are.
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你无法预测中奖的彩票号码会是什么,但你说你还是可以对彩票做出一些预测。
You can't predict what the winning lottery numbers are going to be, but you say you can make some predictions about the lottery.
那我们先从这一点开始。
So let's start with that.
所以,是的,以彩票为例,你知道,这是一个随机过程。
So, yeah, with the lottery, for example, you know, it's a random process.
在英国,彩票以前是从49个球中选出6个,中奖概率是一千四百万分之一,所以中奖几率非常低。
In The UK, the the lottery used to be picking six balls from 49, and you had a one in fourteen million chance of winning, so not very good odds.
但我们还是可以做一些事情,也许不能提高中奖几率,但一旦中奖,就能确保我们获得最大奖金。
But there are some things that we can do, maybe not to improve our chances of winning, but if we do win to make sure that we make the most of that, that we take the maximum jackpot.
我们可以通过利用人们对随机性的认知偏差来做到这一点。
And we can do that by exploiting other people's perception of randomness.
我们认为随机性应该是分布均匀的。
So we think of randomness as being well spaced out.
当我们选择彩票号码时,往往会从每行各选一个,让号码分布得非常均匀。
When we pick our lottery numbers, we tend to pick maybe one from each row on the card and space them out really nicely.
但实际上,在英国这种彩票的全部抽签中,有一半会出现两个连续的数字,而我们却不认为这是随机的。
But actually, in half of all lottery draws from that UK lottery, you would see two consecutive numbers coming up in the draw, but we don't think of that as random.
我们认为随机性应该是分布得非常均匀的。
We think randomness is really well spaced.
而且,实际上我们在选择号码时也会受到人们生日带来的偏见影响。
And, actually, we're also subject to biases about choosing our numbers from people's birthdays.
例如,数字1到31被选择的频率要高得多。
So for example, the numbers one to 31 get chosen a lot more often.
因此,我们可以通过选择一组不太可能被别人选中的数字,来利用他人对随机性的这种偏见——这样,如果我们中奖了,就不会与太多人分享奖金。
So we can exploit these sort of biases in other people's perception of randomness by choosing an unlikely set of numbers which says, you know, if we do win, that we don't share the jackpot.
在英国,曾出现过253人分享头奖的情况,尽管中奖概率仅为一千四百万分之一,这是因为人们选择所谓随机数字的方式其实并不随机。
We've had draws in The UK where 253 people have shared the jackpot despite the fact that it's a one in fourteen million chance of matching the numbers because people's way of choosing so called random numbers is not really very random.
很多人选择了相同的数字。
So many people choose the same numbers.
因此,随机性和数学可以帮助我们,至少在中奖时最大化我们的收益。
So randomness and maths can help us to try and at least maximize our winnings if we do win the lottery.
你说的关于随机性的观点很有趣,因为我记得之前在播客里和别人讨论过,人们并不理解随机性并不总是像你想象的那样随机。
Well, it's interesting what you said about randomness because I remember talking to someone else, on the podcast about that, that people don't understand that randomness isn't always as random as you think it is.
关于理解随机性,我认为另一点非常重要,那就是巧合实际上比你想象的要常见得多。
The other thing about understanding randomness, which I think is really important, is that coincidences are actually surprisingly likely.
我还是用彩票来说明这一点。
And I'll go back to the lottery with that one.
对吧?
Right?
对于任何一个人来说,中彩票的概率极低。
So it's incredibly unlikely for any one person to win the lottery.
但由于每周有这么多人购买彩票,几乎每周都会有人中奖。
But because so many people play the lottery each week, someone wins almost every week.
这又回到了巧合的这个概念。
And it it it comes back to this idea of coincidences.
当我们遇到巧合时,总觉得这是极其不可能发生的事件,并且常常因为这些巧合而得出错误的结论。
We think when a coincidence happens that it's an incredibly unlikely event, and we often jump to conclusions on the back of those coincidences occurring.
实际上,还有一个所谓的‘大数定律’,意思是给定足够的机会,即使极其不可能的事情也可能发生。
And, actually, there's this this idea, this law of truly large numbers, which says, given enough opportunities, even incredibly unlikely things can occur.
因此,我在做决策或理解我们所经历的事情时,想强调的另一个教训是:不太可能的事件确实会发生,我们应该开始预期巧合的出现,而不是轻易断言这些巧合是来自另一个世界的讯息,或对那些可能只是由随机性解释的事情妄加因果推断。
So one of one of the other lessons that I I'd draw about decision making or about about understanding what's happening to us is that even unlikely events can and do happen, that we should start to expect coincidences to occur and not to draw, not to jump to conclusions about these being messages from the other side or or, you know, inferring spurious causation on on things which may just be explained by random chance.
当我们做出预测时,通常用什么来做出这些预测呢?
When we do make predictions, what do we typically use to make them?
我的意思是,当我预测一天会怎么过时,感觉就像是我的直觉在思考。
Mean, when I make a prediction about how the day is gonna go, it just feels like that's just my gut thinking.
这完全基于过去发生过的事情以及我认为可能发生的事,我的直觉告诉我这将会发生。
It's just like, based on what's happened in the past and what I think is likely to happen, my gut tells me this is gonna happen.
我就依靠这个来行动。
And that's what I go on.
是的。
Yeah.
在许多情况下,用这种方式预测未来并不是不合理的。
And that's not that's not an unreasonable way to predict the future in in many in many instances.
所以,你知道,如果你知道自己要去上班,那就可以大致预见到你的一天会怎么度过。
So, you know, you if you know you're going to work, then for sure, you can sort of see what how your day might pan out.
你可以看看日程安排,大致了解那天会发生什么。
You have a look at your diary and see what what's gonna happen in that day to some degree.
对吧?
Right?
但还有其他情况,假设事情会像现在这样持续下去,并不是一个很好的假设。
But there are other occurrences where, assuming that things are gonna continue in the same way that they do isn't a particularly good assumption.
比如,在疫情中期我们试图推广疫苗时,刚开始进展非常缓慢,因为我们还没有建立起相应的基础设施。
So for example, when we were trying to roll out the vaccines at the start of the, oh, in the middle of the of the pandemic, if you like, when we're trying to get vaccines out to people, it started off really slowly because we haven't got the infrastructure set up.
对吧?
Right?
因此,许多新闻机构说,照这个速度,我们可能需要十年才能为整个美国人口完成接种。
And so lots of news agencies were saying, well, at this rate, we're not gonna have vaccinated the whole of the American population for ten years.
这是一种基于线性思维的固有假设,认为事情会继续以当前的方式变化。
And that's an inherent assumption which is based on linearity that things will continue to change the way that they're currently changing.
当然,实际上发生的是,我们大幅提升了疫苗配送能力,因此并没有继续以那种速度接种疫苗。
And, of course, actually what happened is that we ramped up vaccine delivery capacity hugely, and so we didn't continue to give vaccines at that rate.
实际上,美国所有成年人口在首批疫苗推出后的六个月内就完成了接种,或者至少在六个月内所有人都获得了接种机会。
And, actually, the whole of The US adult population was vaccinated within six months of the first vaccines being given out or at least everyone was offered the vaccine within six months of those those being given out.
因此,在某些情况下,假设当前的状态或某种现象的变化速率会持续到未来,并不是一个好的假设,我们需要意识到当像指数增长这样的现象发挥作用时,这些情况何时会出现。
So there are some situations where making that basic assumption of what's happened at the moment or the current rate of what of what something a phenomenon is changing at is not a good assumption into the future, and we need to be aware of when those phenomena, like things like exponential growth, can come into play.
所以我觉得有趣的是,你说人类在很多情况下不擅长预测未来,原因之一是我们存在各种偏见,这些偏见扭曲了我们对即将发生事情的判断,比如线性偏见和其他一种偏见。
So what I thought was interesting is that you say one of the reasons that humans aren't very good at predicting the future in a lot of cases is we have these different biases, and that skews our perception of what's going to happen, like the linearity bias and and the other one.
那我们来谈谈这些偏见吧。
So let let's talk about those.
我们可以问一些有趣的问题,来揭示这种所谓的线性偏见。
There's a number of sort of fun questions that that we can ask people to try and unpick this what's called linearity bias.
比如,我可能会问你,劳拉是个短跑运动员。
So for example, I might ask you, you know, Laura's a sprinter.
她跑100米的最好成绩是13秒。
Her best time to run a 100 meters is thirteen seconds.
她跑一公里需要多长时间?
How long will it take her to run a kilometer?
我可以和你一起算一算。
And so I can work it through with you.
你知道,一公里是100米的十倍长,所以她应该需要十倍的时间。
You know, kilometer is 10 times as long as a 100 meters, so it should take her 10 times as long.
这就是线性推理的结论。
That's what the linear reasoning suggests.
所以她应该需要130秒。
So it should take her a hundred and thirty seconds.
但问题是,这相当于两分十秒。
Now the problem with that, that's two minutes and ten seconds.
问题是,一公里的世界纪录是两分十一秒。
The problem with that is that the world record time for the kilometer is two minutes and eleven seconds.
实际上,这并不合理,因为没有人能保持百米最佳速度整整十倍的距离,跑完一整公里。
So, actually, it doesn't make sense because no one can expect to keep their best 100 meter pace up for the whole for 10 times as long, for a whole kilometer.
这就是线性偏差的本质。
And that is the essence of linearity bias.
我们往往把在学校里反复练习的那些问题,套用到现实世界中,而现实可能并不适用这种逻辑。
We're sort of taking these problems that we've been drilled with at school and applying them to the real world where it might not be appropriate.
我还问了聊天机器人ChatGPT另一个关于毛巾的问题。
There's another one that I asked chat GPT, the AI chatbot, was about towels.
问题是:三块毛巾在晾衣绳上晾干需要三个小时。
So the question asked was it takes three towels, three tap three hours to dry on the line.
那么九块毛巾需要多久才能晾干?
How long does it take nine towels to dry?
你马上就能看出ChatGPT即将犯的错误。
And, of course, you can immediately see through the the error in in what ChatGPT is about to do.
它说:如果三块毛巾需要三小时晾干,那九块毛巾就应该需要九小时。
They said, well, you know, if it takes three hours for three tiles to dry, should take nine tile nine hours for nine tiles to dry on the line.
当然,前提是你的晾衣绳足够大,可以并排晾干毛巾。
And, of course, it provided your washing line is big enough, you can dry tiles in parallel.
所以,九条毛巾晾干所需的时间不应该比三条毛巾更长。
So it shouldn't take any longer for nine tiles to dry than it takes three tiles to dry.
但即使是ChatGPT这样的AI聊天机器人,也深陷这种线性假设之中。
But ChatGPT has even this AI chatbot has got this linearity assumption drilled into it.
我认为,当我们假设过程是线性的,而实际上它们可能并非线性——比如存在负反馈循环、自我实现的预言、自我挫败的预言时,我们就可能对未来做出错误的预测。
And I think by assuming the processes are are linear when in fact they may well not be linear, they may do things which confound our expectations like having negative feedback loops, becoming self fulfilling prophecies, self defeating prophecies, then we make bad predictions about the future.
这挺有意思的。
Well, that's interesting.
谈谈你提到的反馈循环和自我实现的预言吧,这到底是什么意思。
Talk talk about the feedback loops that you mentioned in the in this self fulfilling prophecy, what that's all about.
嗯,有两种情况。
Well, so there's two.
有一种是正反馈循环,会导致自我实现的预言。
There's this there's a a positive feedback loop can lead to a self fulfilling prophecy.
也就是说,某人做出一个预测,而这个预测最终促使它自己成真。
So that's a, you know, prediction that someone makes which makes itself come true.
一个很好的例子是医学中的安慰剂效应。
So a nice example of that is the placebo effect in medicine.
在医学中,我们必须控制安慰剂效应,因为实际上,当人们接受治疗时,即使这种治疗不含任何能真正治疗疾病的活性化学成分,人们也会因为接受了治疗而感觉好转。
You know, in in medicine, we have to control for the placebo effect because, what effectively happens is when people get a treatment, even if that treatment has no sort of active chemical in it to actually treat the the disease that's being treated, people start to feel better simply because they're being treated.
这通常被称为‘让自身成真的谎言’。
It's often called the lie that makes itself come true.
因此,在医学试验中,我们必须设置两组,一组给予安慰剂(比如糖丸),另一组给予活性药物,因为仅仅接受治疗就会让人感觉好转。
So we have to make sure in medical trials that we have two arms, one that are given a placebo, so a sugar pill if you like, and the other that are given the active drug because just being treated makes people feel better.
如果我们看到人们好转了,却误以为药物有显著效果,而实际上药物并没有显著作用,我们就可能得出错误的结论。
So we could draw the wrong conclusions if we see people getting better even if that drug doesn't actually have any significant effect.
这就是一个自我实现的预言的例子。
So that's an example of a self fulfilling prophecy.
但我们也有自我否定的预言。
But we also have self defeating prophecies.
例如,这些预言会让自己变得不成立,或者说,让自身被证伪。
So for example, these are predictions that make themselves come false, if you like.
所以在疫情初期,我们有关于未来几周会发生什么的模型预测。
So at the start of the pandemic, we had modeling predictions about what was going to happen over the next few weeks.
在英国,帝国学院预测,如果我们继续采取当前的措施,将有二十五万人死亡。
In The UK, we had a prediction from Imperial College, which suggested that two hundred and fifty thousand people would die if we carried on with the current measures that we were taking.
当然,面对这样的预测,任何政府都不会无动于衷。
Now, of course, no government faced with that prediction would do nothing in the face of it.
因此,这个可怕的预测实际上被避免了。
And so that terrible prediction was actually averted.
事实上,这正是许多对封锁和其他防疫措施持怀疑态度的人声称模型预测全错的原因。
And, actually, that's a a reason for many, skeptics of of lockdowns and other pandemic measures to say, well, the modelers were all wrong.
模型预测出了错,因为他们的预测并没有实现。
The modelers made mistakes because, you know, their predictions didn't come true.
当然,这些预测没有实现的原因正是这个负反馈循环。
And, of course, the reason they didn't come true is because of this negative feedback loop.
这是一种自我挫败的预言,它主动阻止了自身的实现,而预测本身恰恰导致了它没有成为现实。
It was a self defeating prophecy acted to defeat itself, and and the prediction itself meant that it didn't come true.
所以,我们所做的假设以及我们非科学的思维方式,会干扰我们的预测。
So it seems that the assumptions that we make and the just the way we think in a not so scientific y way mess up our predictions.
我认为,一个很好的例子——我之前提到过——就是理解随机性。
And I think, you know, a good example, I mentioned it before, a good example is understanding randomness.
人们其实并不真正理解随机性。
And people don't really understand randomness.
他们把随机性与多样性混淆了。
They confuse randomness with, you know, variety.
我记得很久以前听过一个关于随机性认知的问题,涉及人们听音乐的方式。
And I remember hearing a while ago, long time ago, about this problem of this perception of randomness as it pertained to how people listen to music.
没错。
Exactly.
至少我知道的例子是iPod的随机播放功能。
So this this was, the at least the example I know was the was the iPod shuffle.
对。
Right.
即使在流媒体服务出现之前,你也可以把一万首你最爱的歌存在里面,然后让它随机播放。
Even before streaming services, you know, you could put 10,000 of your favorite songs on there and just get it to play randomly.
它基本上就是以均匀分布且有放回的方式随机挑选这些歌曲。
That's all it did, basically, was pick these songs, uniformly at random with replacement.
所以,你知道,你可能会重复听到同一首歌。
So, you know, you could pick the same song twice.
当然,只要同一乐队的两首歌接连出现,人们就会说,这根本不是随机的。
And, of course, when even two songs by the same band came up, people said, you know, this this isn't this isn't random.
有一位记者曾有机会接触史蒂夫·乔布斯。
And there was a journalist who had who had access to Steve Jobs.
他在采访乔布斯时说,你看。
He was interviewing him, and he said, look.
前几天我连续听到了两首史蒂利·丹的歌。
I had these two Steely Dan songs come up the other day.
这不可能是随机的。
This can't possibly be random.
乔布斯打电话给一位工程师,问他能不能检查一下,我们代码中运行的算法是否真的在随机选择这些歌曲?
And Jobs got an engineer on the phone, and he said, you know, can you just check that, you know, the algorithm we're running in the code actually is genuinely picking these songs at random?
工程师说,是的。
And the engineer said, yeah.
对。
Yeah.
当然。
Absolutely.
乔布斯因此向那位记者做了保证。
And and Jobs reassured the journalist.
然而,那位记者还是写了这篇文章,成百上千的人写信给他,说:是的。
Nevertheless, the journalist wrote this article, and hundreds of people wrote into him saying, yeah.
我也遇到过这种情况。
I've had that as well.
我也听过两首绿洲乐队的歌连续播放之类的。
I've had two Oasis songs played back to back or whatever.
所以,是的,乔布斯决定在算法中加入一个功能,使得不能连续播放同一首歌或同一乐队的歌曲。
And so, yeah, Jobs decided that he was gonna implement something in the algorithm, which meant you couldn't play the same song or a song by the same band back to back.
他说,是的。
And he said, yeah.
我们让随机性显得不那么随机,从而让它感觉更随机。
We're making it less random to make it feel more random.
这就像彩票中的巧合,我们不期望两个连续的数字出现。
And it's it's like this coincidence in the lottery where we don't expect two consecutive numbers to come up.
我们不期望同一乐队的两首歌连续播放。
We don't expect two songs by the same band to come up.
我们认为这并不随机。
We don't think that that's random.
所以当我们看到真正随机的选取模式时,我们并不擅长识别。
So we're not very good when we do see a genuinely random pattern of picking.
我们太擅长在随机数据中找出模式,并误以为其中存在因果关系。
We're we're too good, if you like, at picking out patterns in random data and and thinking that there's causality where there isn't any.
我们还在哪些地方这样做?
Where else do we do this?
我们还有哪些其他偏见会影响我们的思维方式?
What other kinds of biases do we have that skew our thinking here?
我们在各个地方都能看到这种现象。
So we see it all over the place.
对吧?
Right?
当我们看到人脸、月亮,或者火星那张红色的脸时,我们也能看到这种现象。
We see it when we we pick up, you know, face the man and the moon or the the red face of Mars.
当我们去云彩中寻找形状,试图想象它们像什么时,这种现象非常有趣。
We see it when and it's quite fun when we, you know, when we when you're cloud spotting and you try and pretend what the shapes in the clouds are.
我经常和我的孩子们一起这么做。
I do that with my kids all the time.
但我们也做了其他一些著名的例子,比如观察特定城市中的癌症病例。
But we also do it the sort of famous examples of people doing it, looking at cases of cancer in particular cities.
所以他们会查看城市地图,标出病例——比如这个例子中的儿童白血病,然后发现一些聚集点,这些聚集可能只是由于数据随机性造成的,而我们确实会在随机数据中看到聚集现象。
So they'll look at look at a city map and they'll plot cases of, in this in this example, you know, childhood leukemia, for example, and they'll find clusters, clusters which may just have come up because the data is random, and we do see clustering in random data.
但在一个特定的例子中,在奥马哈,他们将电力线路网格叠加在这张地图上,发现其中一个聚集点附近有电力线路或变电站。
But then they in a particular example, in Omaha, they overlaid power line grids on top of this map, and they saw that in one of these clusters, there was a group of power lines or substation nearby.
于是他们直接去找政府,说:看。
And they went all the way to the government and said, look.
他们声称这些电力线路导致我们的孩子患上癌症,尽管还有其他许多聚集点并不靠近电力线路,而且也没有任何物理证据或科学试验表明电力线路会导致癌症。
They these these power lines are causing our kids to have cancer despite the fact that there were a number of other clusters which weren't near power lines and despite the fact that there was no physical evidence or or even scientific evidence and using trials to suggest that power lines cause cancer.
因此,当我们看到这些聚集时,很容易误以为存在因果关系,而实际上这些癌症聚集可能只是随机分布的结果。
And so, you know, it can confound us when we see these clusters, we jump to conclusions about causation where in fact those cancer clusters may well just have been randomly distributed around.
那么,检验这一点的方法似乎是:看看那些有电力线路但没有癌症的地方,然后说,你看,那里就没事?
Well, it would seem that the way you would test that would be to look at places that have power lines and no cancer and then say, well, see, that's hello?
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
没错。
Exactly.
但对于那些在这些情况下情感投入很深的人来说,要这样理性思考是很困难的。
But but it's especially for people who are emotionally involved in in these situations, it's hard to reason like that.
但确实,你说得完全对。
But, yeah, you're absolutely right.
你知道,在其他城市,甚至在同一城市里,也存在一些集群,但那里并没有高压线。
There were you know, there were places both in other cities and indeed in in in the in the same city where, where there were clusters, but there were no power lines.
而且,确实,你当然可以向人们指出这一点,但当人们认为自己发现了某种他们情感上特别投入的因素与癌症之间的因果联系时,要让他们改变想法真的很难。
And and, yeah, you obviously, you can you you can put that point to people, but but it's really hard to shake people when they think they've found a causal connection between something which they're particularly emotionally invested in.
在很多方面,我们都被自己的思维方式所束缚,而更糟糕的是,我们甚至意识不到这种束缚。
So we are really handicapped by our own thinking in in a lot of ways that we don't and then we're doubly handicapped because we don't realize the handicap.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
这有点像是不知道自己不知道什么,我并不是在提供一种能百分之百预测未来的方法,但我至少想让我们先做到这一点:至少现在我们知道该从哪里开始寻找这些线索了。
It's it's sort of not knowing what we don't know, and I I'm not necessarily giving people, ways in which they can always predict the future with a 100% certainty, but what I am trying to do is at least give us that first part where we can say, at least now I know the places to look for this.
你知道,至少我现在明白,巧合可能比想象中更常见,或者在随机数据中,我既预期会出现聚集,也预期会出现完全没有癌症病例的大片区域。
You know, at least I know now that coincidences can be surprisingly likely or that, you know, both in in with random data, I expect both clusters, but also large areas where there are where there are no cases of cancer, for example.
这并不意味着那些没有癌症病例的地方附近就一定存在某种治愈之泉。
And it doesn't mean that there's, you know, some sort of healing well near those places where there are no can there are no cancer cases.
这仅仅意味着这些地方恰好没有点状分布,而这种现象正是真正随机模式中我们所预期的。
It just means that those are places where there happen not to be dots, but those are the sorts of things we expect with genuinely random patterns.
再次强调,我们预期随机分布应该是相当均匀的,而当它不均匀时,就会扰乱我们的预期。
Again, we expect randomness to be quite evenly spaced, and when it isn't, that can confound our expectations.
所以,关于巧合的整个概念,人们要么相信巧合,要么会说根本不存在巧合,所有事情的发生都有其原因。
So this whole idea of coincidences, people either believe in coincidences or they'll say things like there's no such thing as a coincidence, that things happen for a reason.
而这一切都混杂在一片混乱中,人们不知道该相信什么。
And and it all gets mixed up in this soup that, you know, people don't know what to believe.
但你说的是,巧合其实经常发生。
But you're saying that coincidences happen a lot.
是的
Yeah.
当然
Absolutely.
我有个关于我度假时发生的一件巧合的精彩故事。
I've got I've got a lovely story about a coincidence that happened to me, when I went on holiday.
我见到了我哥哥。
I met up with my brother.
他比我晚到了几天。
He arrived a couple of days after me.
我们打算去法国。
We were go going to to France.
我们在法国南部。
We're in the South Of France.
他到了之后,把书放在一旁,然后拥抱了我,打了个招呼。
And, he arrived and he put his book down on the side and, you know, had a hug and said hi.
我看了看他的书,从书里露出的是一本保罗·奥斯特的《纽约三部曲》。
I looked at his book, and sticking out of his book it's a book by Paul Auster, New York trilogies.
从他的书里露出的书签上写着‘p Aust’几个字。
And sticking out of his book, he had a bookmark which had p Aust on it.
于是我问他:‘你为什么开始在书签上印作者的名字?’
And I said to him, why have you started printing out bookmarks with the name of the author on?
这不是很书呆子气吗?
Isn't that a bit geeky?
他看着我,一脸茫然:‘什么?’
And he and he looked at me like, what?
他说:‘这只是我的火车票。’
He said, that's just my train ticket.
我从书里把那张纸抽出来,发现果然是他的火车票。
And I put picked it out of the book, and it was his train ticket.
我当时就说:‘这到底是怎么回事?’
And I was like, what what is this?
但我意识到,他前往法国南部时经过的火车站是巴黎奥斯特里茨,而当你缩写它时,它的缩写和保罗·奥斯特是一样的。
But I realized that the train station that he'd come through on the way to Southern France was Paris Austerlitz, which when you abbreviate it, has the same abbreviation as Paul Auster.
上面写着 P Aust。
It said P Aust on it.
所以我立刻认为这简直是个巧合,于是得出了一个错误的结论,以为他在印制书签,但实际上这只是偶然。
And so I jumped near this was just a freak coincidence, but I jumped to this conclusion thinking he was doing this weird thing of printing out bookmarks when actually it was just random chance.
我觉得,我之所以讲这个故事,是因为它确实是一个非常奇怪的巧合。
And I think, like, the the fact that I tell that story because it's a really weird coincidence.
对吧?
Right?
这不属于那种经典的巧合案例,但重点就在这里。
It's not one that it's not one from the classic stable of coincidences, but that's the point.
对吧?
Right?
生活中有各种各样的怪事会让我们注意到它们,一些奇怪的巧合随时可能发生,我们的生命中有大量时间,足以让这些奇异的事情不断出现。
That there are all sorts of weird things which would make us sit up and take notice of them, weird coincidences which can happen, all sorts of opportunities for these strange and unusual things to happen and all sorts of, you know, huge amounts of time over the course of our lifetime for these coincidences to happen.
所以我不想剥夺人们对巧合的神奇感,因为我觉得这些故事非常有趣,讲起来也很棒。但对我来说,巧合的魔力在于弄清楚这个巧合是如何发生的,我们是如何发现这个巧合的,甚至是我们是如何注意到它的。
So what I don't wanna do is steal the magic of coincidences away from people because I think they're really fun and it's great to tell those story But for me, the magic of coincidences comes in finding out how that coincidence happened, how I how we spotted the coincidence, how we even spotted it.
因为显然,这类事件时时刻刻都在发生,只是我们没有看到而已。
Because there are obviously hundreds of these sorts of events happening all the time that we that we don't get to see.
你经常听到这样的故事:两个邻居都不知道对方要去度假,结果却在餐厅的对面坐了下来,彼此认出了对方。
You often hear stories of people who are neighbors, and they neither knew the other one was going on holiday, and they end up sitting on the opposite side of the restaurant to each other and spotting each other.
但肯定也有类似的例子:邻居们坐在同一家餐厅,彼此对面而坐,却始终没有发现对方。
But there must be similarly examples of neighbors who sit in the same restaurant but are seated opposite each other and never see each other.
而我们之所以能注意到这些巧合,对我来说,这才是真正目睹这些不寻常事件时的魔力所在。
And, you know, the fact that we spot these coincidences, that for me is the real magic of of seeing these unusual events.
我想表达的是,我们不应当一看到不寻常的事件就立刻下结论。
And and I guess it I'm trying to say that we shouldn't jump to conclusions just when we see an unusual event occurring.
不过,巧合确实有种让人毛骨悚然的感觉。
There is something about coincidences though that that just it's kinda spooky.
这感觉有点奇怪,就像在想:这概率也太低了吧?
It's kinda like weird, like, what are the odds?
我的意思是,这背后一定有原因。
I mean, this is that there must be a reason for it.
我认为这就是人类大脑所做的事。
That I think that's what the human brain does.
它试图为一些其实并无特殊意义的事情找理由,比如你只是恰好在同一时间坐在了同一家餐厅里。
It tries to make sense of something where there really isn't anything other than you just happen to be sitting in the same restaurant at the same time.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
That's right.
因此,在这本书的第一章里,我去见了一位通灵者,试图理解一个没有预测能力、也没有科学工具的人,是如何给人留下能预知未来的印象的。
And so I for the very first chapter of the book, I go and see a psychic and try to understand how someone with with no, seeming predictive ability, no scientific tools can give off the appearance of being able to predict.
她对我说的一件事是,你知道吗,基特,你有没有过这样的经历——你正想着某个人,然后他就给你打电话了?
And one of the things that she said to me, you know, have you ever had that experience, Kit, where you, you know, you're thinking of someone and then they call you?
我说,有。
And I said, yeah.
这种事经常发生在我身上。
That happens to me quite often.
她说,这是因为你有,你知道的,通灵能力。
And and she said, well, that's because you've got, you know, psychic abilities.
你有,你知道的,灵性上的存在感。
You're, you know, you're psychically present.
我当时很礼貌地说,这真有意思。
And I and I and I I was very polite and said, That's really interesting.
我没有说不。
I didn't say no.
当然,事实并非如此。
Of course, that's not the case.
但当然,这种事情每个人都经历过,因为你知道,我们经常在想某人,而他们也在想我们。
But but, of course, that happens to everyone because, you know, we're often thinking about people and they're thinking about us.
然后就会发生这种情况,你知道,你可能有一阵子没和朋友联系了,正想着该联系他们了,而他们也在想你,于是就给你打了电话。
And then it happens that, you know, maybe you haven't spoken to a friend for a while and you're thinking, oh, I should get in touch with them and they're thinking the same thing and they ring you.
这是一种巧合,但你知道,这是最常见的巧合类型之一。
It's a coincidence, but, you know, it's one of the most common type of coincidences.
这种事情几乎每个人都会遇到,但这并不意味着因为我经历了这件事,我就有通灵能力。
It happens to almost everyone, but it doesn't mean that I've got psychic ability just because that has happened.
那个通灵者试图告诉我的很多事情,其实那些所谓的通灵或神秘现象,只不过是巧合发生的例子。
And and a lot of the the things that the the psychic was trying to tell me meant that, you know, these were psychic or mysterious things were actually just examples of coincidences happening.
而且,人们似乎也常常把巧合、既视感这些东西混为一谈。
Well, it does seem too that people kind of mix up in in in or put under the same umbrella coincidences and deja vu and Mhmm.
你知道,这一切都被搞得神秘莫测,几乎就像我们根本不想去弄明白一样。
You know, it all kinda is all kinda mystified and mysterious and and and nobody it's it's almost like we don't really wanna know.
我们不想,你知道,就像……
We don't you know, it's like.
是的。
Yeah.
这太神奇了。
It's just so magical.
如果你掀开帘子把真相解释出来,就会破坏这种感觉。
And if and if you pull the curtain back and explain it, you ruin it.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得这很令人遗憾。
I think that's I think that's sad.
对我来说,关于巧合的是,我不希望破坏人们对它的感受。
And and for me, that's the thing about the coincidences is that I don't wanna ruin it for people.
但对我来说,有一种不同的方式去发现其中的魔力。
But for me, there's a different way of finding the magic in it.
当人们谈论巧合时,常常会在“巧合”前面加上“幸运”这个词,认为其中带有一种运气的成分,认为巧合有点神秘、有点魔幻,或许它们的发生是有原因的。
Well, when people talk about coincidences, very often they put the word lucky in front of the word coincidence, that there is this element of luck to it, that coincidences are a little bit mystical, a little bit magical, maybe they happen for a reason.
但正如你所指出的,即使它们真的有原因,发生的频率也太高了。
But as you point out, even if they do happen for a reason, they happen a lot.
它们比人们意识到的要频繁得多。
They're a lot more frequent than I think people realize.
基特·莱特斯是我的嘉宾。
Kit Yates has been my guest.
他是英国的一名数学科学高级讲师,著有《如何预期意外:预测的科学与何时不该预测的艺术》。
He is a senior lecturer of mathematical science in The UK and author of the book, How to Expect the Unexpected, The Science of Making Predictions and the Art of Knowing When Not To.
节目说明中提供了这本书的链接。
There's a link to that book in the show notes.
我也会在节目说明中附上基特之前在第362期节目中做客的链接,当时他谈论了生死的数学,如果你还没听过,非常有趣。
I'll also put a link in the show notes to Kit's other appearance here back on episode 362 where he was, talking about the math of life and death, which was really interesting if you haven't heard it.
谢谢你来到这里,基特。
Thanks for being here, Kit.
谢谢你,迈克。
Thanks, Mike.
谢谢。
Thanks.
我非常感激。
I really appreciate that.
早在2008年,牛津大学的一位研究人员整理了一份清单,列出了我们在日常对话中每天听到的十大最滥用、最烦人、最令人反感的词语和短语。
Back in 2008, an Oxford University researcher compiled a list of the 10 most overused and annoying and despised words and phrases that we hear every day in conversation.
有趣的是,那究竟是什么?
And what's so interesting is in the what is it?
自那以后十六年过去了,人们几乎没有做任何努力来消除这些表达,因为它们至今仍随处可见。
Like, sixteen years since then, not much has been done to get rid of these because you still hear them all the time.
第十名:这并不是什么火箭科学。
Number 10, it's not rocket science.
第九名:24/7。
Number nine is twenty four seven.
第八名:shouldn't have,当你想说 shouldn't have 时。
Eight, shouldn't have when you're trying to say shouldn't have.
第七名:这简直是个噩梦。
It's a nightmare is number seven.
第六名:绝对。
Number six is absolutely.
接下来是‘恕我直言’。
Next is with all due respect.
第四是‘此时此刻’。
The fourth is at this moment in time.
第三最令人反感的短语,我个人觉得是。
The third most despised phrase, I personally.
接下来是‘相当独特’。
Next is fairly unique.
而排名第一的最令人反感的短语是‘归根结底’。
And the number one most despised phrase, at the end of the day.
所以,再过大约十六年,我们回来看看这些短语是否仍在英语中广泛使用。
So check back in about, what, another sixteen years, and we'll see if these phrases are still in popular use in the English language.
而这一点是你应该知道的。
And that is something you should know.
你知道,我们在苹果播客上有大量评论,成千上万条,在Spotify上也有很多评论,我们总是不满足。
You know, we have a lot of reviews on Apple Podcasts, thousands of them, a lot of reviews on Spotify, and we're insatiable.
我们永远都不嫌多。
We just never get enough.
评分和评论对这个播客有帮助。
Ratings and reviews help this podcast.
这是表达支持的好方式。
It's a good way to show your support.
只需一分钟,请留下评分和评论,最好是五颗星。
It only takes a minute, so please leave a rating and review, preferably five stars.
我是米卡·卡鲁瑟斯。
I'm Micah Carruthers.
感谢您今天收听《你应该知道的事情》。
Thanks for listening today to Something You Should Know.
嗨,我是《最长的最短时间》的希拉里·弗兰克,这是一档获奖播客,主题是为人父母和生殖健康。
Hey, it's Hilary Frank from The Longest Shortest Time, an award winning podcast about parenthood and reproductive health.
如今生殖健康领域有太多事情正在发生,我们正在全面报道。
There is so much going on right now in the world of reproductive health, and we're covering it all.
避孕、怀孕、性别、身体自主权、更年期、知情同意、精子,关于精子的故事太多了,当然还有养育各个年龄段孩子的快乐与荒诞。
Birth control, pregnancy, gender, bodily autonomy, menopause, consent, sperm, so many stories about sperm, and of course, the joys and absurdities of raising kids of all ages.
如果你是第一次听这个节目,推荐你收听一集叫做《楼梯》的节目。
If you're new to the show, check out an episode called The Staircase.
这是我个人的一个故事,关于我如何努力让孩子的学校开设性教育课程。
It's a personal story of mine about trying to get my kids school to teach sex ed.
剧透一下,我确实成功了,但结果完全不是我原本设想的方式。
Spoiler, I get it to happen, but not at all in the way that I wanted.
我们也会采访很多非父母听众,所以你不需要是父母也能收听。
We also talk to plenty of non parents, so you don't have to be a parent to listen.
如果你喜欢那些关于人际关系、还有,你知道的,月经的令人惊讶、幽默又感人的故事,《最长最短的时间》就是为你准备的。
If you like surprising, funny, poignant stories about human relationships and, you know, periods, The Longest Shortest Time is for you.
你可以在任何播客应用中搜索我们,或者访问 longestshortesttime.com。
Find us in any podcast app or at longestshortesttime.com.
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