上涨1000%的股票 | Lumentum 首席执行官

我加入Lumentum的时候，董事会给我看了一份预测，说这就是他们对公司未来的预期。

I joined Lumentum at a time where board of directors showed me a forecast and they said, Hey, here's what we think the company is gonna do.

我当时自然觉得这目标太乐观，打了个五折，结果现在实际业绩已经超过了他们当初预测的四倍。

And I, of course, discounted it by about 50%, and it's been probably four x over what they even showed me.

我们已经连续五个季度保持这样的增长了。

We've been there about five quarters now.

在这五个季度里，我们的总收入翻了三倍。

And in those five quarters, we've tripled our top line revenue.

所以股价涨了十到十二倍。

So the stock price has gone up 10 or 12 times.

曾经一度，股价突破了一千美元。

One point, it was up over a thousand dollars.

我们的股票表现这么好，主要是因为大家看到了公司的未来前景。

We have a high performing stock largely because people are seeing the future.

现在，这些超大规模客户要求我们大规模部署，数量达到百万甚至千万级别。

Now we're being asked by these hyperscalers to deploy in millions, tens of millions of units.

这彻底改变了我们整个行业的格局，不只是对Lumentum而言。

So it's really changed the dynamic in our industry, not just for Lumentum.

现在每一家光通信公司都在应对前所未有的规模。

Every single optical company now is dealing with scales than we ever had before.

我们经常被问到一个问题，我想你也在你的节目里问过不少人：这会不会是泡沫？

The question we get all the time, and I think you've asked many of the people on your show, is this a bubble?

迈克尔，欢迎来到《Sorcery》。

Michael, welcome to Sorcery.

莫莉，谢谢邀请我做客，非常荣幸。

Molly, thanks for having me on, really a pleasure.

我们现在在巴黎的RAISE展会现场。

So we're here in Paris at RAISE.

你刚才是不是刚上台讲完？

Were you just on stage?

你刚才在那边做什么？

What were you doing over there?

我上台了。

I was on stage.

我和金东宇一起做了主题演讲，他今天早些时候还在这儿跟你聊过。

I gave a keynote with Tony Kim, and I Tony Kim was over here earlier today talking to you.

看来你把所有大咖都见全了。

So you got all the celebs I guess.

是啊，顺便说一句，他特别欣赏你。

Yeah, he's a big fan of you by the way.

不知道你知不知道这事。

Didn't know if you knew that.

他也特别欣赏你。

He's a big fan of yours too.

他跟我说，这布置真不错。

He told me, he goes, this is a great setup.

你一定会喜欢的。

You'll enjoy it.

和莫莉聊天特别有意思。

A lot of fun talking to Molly.

就这样吧。

So there we go.

那你们在台上都聊了些什么？

So what did you guys talk about on stage?

现在光通信在数据中心里越来越重要了，对吧？

Optics is becoming a big thing, right, in the data centers.

托尼当时在做解释。

And Tony was sort of framing.

我们有好多听起来挺怪的词儿，比如横向扩展、纵向扩展、向上扩展、向下扩展。

We have all these funny terms, scale across, scale out, scale up, scale in.

托尼给观众一一讲清楚了这些术语的意思，还有伦茨特公司在其中的角色——现在数据中心对光互联的需求越来越大，我们正处在一个非常激动人心的阶段。

And Tony was walking the audience through what all of these different things mean and what Lumentum's role is in all of that, which is we're in the middle of a pretty exciting time right now as the data center uses more and more optical connectivity.

如果有人不太懂什么是光互联，你能解释一下吗？

So for people who don't know what optical connectivity means, can you explain that?

我们现在正从铜线转向光缆，用光来传输数据，但这到底意味着什么？

We're moving from copper wires to optics and transferring data with light, but what does that mean?

光纤嘛，本质上就是玻璃。

Obviously, are fibers, and fibers are essentially glass.

它们其实就是导体。

They're just conductors.

不再用铜线，改用光纤，光纤就像电线一样，能把光约束在里面。

Instead of having wires, copper wires, have fibers and fibers basically contains the light just like a wire or a copper strand contains electricity.

所以光纤的优势在于，能以更低的功耗和更少的热量，在更远的距离上传输更快的数据。

And so what you get with fiber optics is the ability to move data faster over longer distances with less heat and less power than you get with electricity.

如果你看看现在数据中心的架构，大部分还是靠铜线。

So if you think about the way data centers are architected today, it's mostly copper wires.

以太网线说白了就是铜线。

Ethernet cables are essentially copper wires.

铜线有个物理限制，就是有电阻。

And copper wires, the physics of copper is there's a resistive property.

所以当数据在导线中传输时，会产生热量，而电阻会限制它传输的距离。

So as data tries to move across the wires, it gets hotter and the resistance prevents it from going all that far.

现在数据中心的速度和带宽都在提升，铜线已经无法胜任这么远距离的信号传输了。

And so now inside the data center you have speeds are increasing, bandwidths are increasing and copper can no longer carry these signals the distances they need to go.

因此，越来越多的光缆正在被引入数据中心。

And so you have more and more optics now coming into the data center.

光缆说白了就是光，对吧？

Optics essentially is just light, right?

我们只是让光在光纤里传播，通过高速开关来调制这束光，正是这种开关形成了数据传输。

We're just shining light along a fiber and that light is modulated, meaning it turns on and off at really, really high speeds and that's what creates the transmission.

我觉得应该是托尼说的，

I think it was Tony,

我们在采访前通话时，他提到一个特别讽刺的现象：未来几年要投入上万亿美元来建设数据中心，只是为了把数据传输距离从米缩短到厘米甚至毫米。

we were on a call before our interview and he was pointing out the great irony of spending $10,000,000,000,000 over the next couple years on data center build out to move data from meters down to centimeters and millimeters.

那这个过程和建设，你们是怎么管理的呢？

So how is this process and this build out, how are you managing it?

是的，光纤多年来一直是互联网的骨干。

Yeah, look, fiber optics has been the backbone of the internet for years.

当初互联网刚兴起的时候，正是光通信公司迎来的第一波大发展。

So when the internet first came in, was sort of the first great wave of the optical companies.

那时候，人们在美国、巴黎、伦敦各地开挖地面，铺设光纤电缆，因为互联网需要跨越很长的距离传输数据。

And what happened was you're digging up the earth in The United States, in Paris, in London, wherever it might be and installing these fiber optic cables because the internet now is traveling over huge distances.

所以第一波真正的光通信浪潮，就是在全球范围内构建互联网的骨干网络。

And so the first real optical, sort of the big wave was now building the backbone of our internet infrastructure across the world.

如今，你真的能看到横跨海底的光纤电缆。

And you actually have fiber optic cables today that run under the ocean.

如果我们想在巴黎和纽约之间通信，就有埋在海底的光纤电缆在传输这些信号。

So if we wanna have communication that goes between Paris and New York, there are fiber optic cables that are actually buried in the ocean and those fiber optic cables conduct these signals.

但正如我刚才说的，现在传输速度变得越来越快。

But as I said a minute ago, what's happened is now you're going to faster and faster speeds.

而速度越快，物理特性就越表明铜线要么没法用，要么效果很差。

And when you go to faster and faster speeds, the physics say that copper can't work or it doesn't work as well.

所以现在我们有了这套互联网骨干网络，这套庞大的基础设施，我们已经在这上面折腾了几十年。

And so what you have now is this internet, this big backbone, this big infrastructure that we've played in for numerous decades.

但这些产量其实并不算大。

And those volumes are actually relatively modest.

以前一个季度可能就几千个单位的量。

You're talking about volumes of, let's say a thousand units a quarter.

而现在，这些超大规模云服务商要求我们一次性部署数百万、上千万个单位。

And now we're being asked by these hyperscalers to deploy in millions, tens of millions of units.

这彻底改变了我们整个行业的格局，不只是对Lumentum，我认为现在每一家光通信公司都在面对前所未有的规模挑战。

So it's really changed the dynamic in our industry, not just for Lumentum, but I think every single optical company now is dealing with different scales than we ever had before.

具体来说，搭建这些新数据中心到底是什么感觉？我知道肯定困难重重，但实际操作中到底发生了什么？

What is it like, and I'm sure there's lots of challenges, but like what is it actually tangibly like getting spun up in these new data centers?

幕后到底在忙些什么？

What actually goes on behind the scenes?

大量的生产工作在进行。

There's a lot of manufacturing.

你的行业经验非常丰富，跟英伟达、博通这些公司打交道的时候，肯定对一切了如指掌。

Mean, think if you, you obviously know the industry super well when you talk to companies like Nvidia and Broadcom.

他们大部分产品都是在台积电生产的。

They manufacture most of their products at TSMC.

所以他们把制造环节完全外包出去了。

So they essentially outsource the manufacturing problem.

但光通信行业可没这个条件。

The optics industry doesn't have that luxury.

这本来就是一个非常小众的领域。

It's a very sort of niche industry.

这个行业是经过几十年慢慢发展起来的。

It's one that's grown up over multiple decades.

所以我们自己运营着晶圆厂。

And so for us, we actually operate our own fabs.

从这个角度来说，我们就像是光通信行业的台积电。

So in some respect, we're like the TSMC of the optical industry.

光器件用的材料不一样。

Optics depends on a different material.

半导体用的是叫CMOS的东西，你熟悉的那些芯片都是基于CMOS制造的。

Semiconductors use something called CMOS and all of the semiconductors that you know well are built on CMOS.

内存也是用CMOS。

Memory's built on CMOS.

TPU同样是基于CMOS。

TPUs are built on CMOS.

NVIDIA的显卡也是CMOS工艺。

The Nvidia GPU is built on CMOS.

但激光器和光纤用的是另一种材料，叫磷化铟。

But lasers and fiber optics are built on a different material called indium phosphide.

名字挺拗口的，就是磷化铟，这东西特别小众。

It's kind of a mouthful, but it's this indium phosphide and that's a very boutique thing.

相对来说更冷门一些。

It's a little more of a niche.

所以我们必须自己生产铟磷化物的产品。

And so we actually have to make our own indium phosphide products.

得靠我们自己制造，而且周期特别长，对吧？

We have to manufacture those ourselves and that requires pretty long lead times, right?

建一座晶圆厂要好几年，还得投入大量资金。

It takes us multiple years to build a fab and it requires a lot of expense.

所以我们是一家资本支出非常高的公司。

So we're a very CapEx heavy company.

我们在建设和制造产品上花的钱很多，而且耗时很长。

We spend a lot in trying to build out and manufacture our products and it takes a while.

所以现在正出现一个瓶颈。

So there's a bottleneck that's developing.

我觉得你之前和托尼也聊过这个事。

I think you talked about it with Tony.

随着光纤在数据中心的应用越来越广，整个行业正被越勒越紧，毕竟我们能快速提升的产能是有限的。

And as these fiber optics becomes more and more prevalent in the data center, it's creating an ever tighter noose around the industry because there's only so much we can do so quickly.

本集由Brex赞助，我最推荐的。

This episode is brought to you by Brex, my favorite.

你花的钱决定了你是谁，我绝不把时间浪费在本不该存在的事务上。

You become what you spend on, and I refuse to spend my time on work that shouldn't exist.

报销单、追收收据、手动结账，这些都太烦人了。

Expense reports, receipt chasing, and manual closes.

从Vercel、OpenAI、Anthropic、Granola到Deepgram，所有正在打造未来的企业，都做了同样的选择。

The companies building what's next from Vercel, OpenAI, Anthropic, Granola, and Deepgram all made the same call.

它们全都使用Brex。

They all run on Brex.

Brex是一个智能财务平台，把信用卡、费用管理和银行服务整合成一套系统，内置智能财务代理功能。

Brex is the intelligent finance platform that combines cards, expenses, and banking into a single stack with agentic finance built in.

AI代理能自动处理费用、在支出前确保合规，并在几分钟内完成对账。

AI agents that handle expenses automatically, enforce policy before spend happens, and close your books in minutes.

所以Sorcery用Brex，让我能把时间花在真正重要的事上，而不是琐碎事务。

That's why Sorcery runs on Brex, so I can spend time on building and not busy work.

是时候用上Brex AF了！

It's time to get Brex AF!

了解更多，请访问 brex.com/sorcery。

Learn more at brex.com/sorcery.

就是 brex.com/sourcery。

That's brex.com/sourcery.

再见。

Bye.

这种供应限制带来了大量需求，同时也让股票需求飙升，真是让人吃惊。

That supply constraint is creating a lot of demand, but it's also creating tremendous demand for the stock, which is crazy to see.

股价一度涨了将近一千倍。

The stock was up, I think almost a thousand percent at one point.

作为CEO，当你知道自己受限于产能时，该怎么调整心态？

How do you handle that mentally as a CEO when you know that you are constrained?

这确实很难。

It's tough.

其实我们经常被问到一个问题，我想你也在你的节目里问过很多人：这会不会是泡沫？

Mean, the interesting thing that the question we get all the time and I think you've asked many of the people on your show is, is this a bubble?

有意思的是，在光通信行业，即使未来不再新建数据中心，不再像过去三四年那样疯狂扩张，现有的设施也会从电信号转向光信号。

And what's interesting about the optical industry is if there are no more data center build outs, if you don't see this crazy rate of construction that we've seen over the past three or four years, still you're gonna have a shift within the existing properties from electrical signaling to optics.

所以我们的增长率一直非常惊人——我加入公司时间不长，到现在大概五个季度了，公司营收已经翻了三倍。

And so our growth rate, which has been astronomical, we've grown three times, I've been with the company only a short period of time, I've been there about five quarters now.

在这五个季度里，我们的总收入翻了三倍。

And in those five quarters we've tripled our top line revenue.

股价呢，涨了十到十二倍，正如你所说，一度涨到了一千多美元。

So the stock price has gone up 10 or 12 times, As you correctly point out, at one point it was up over a thousand dollars.

最近几周，因为大家对AI的担忧，股价有所回落。

It's come back, I think on a lot of the concern around AI over the last couple of weeks.

但我们股价表现强劲，主要是因为投资者看到了未来——他们看到越来越多的光器件正被部署进数据中心，这带来了我们产品前所未有的需求。

But we have a high performing stock largely because people are seeing the future and seeing the future start to play out where you have more and more optical components going into these data centers that's driving super high demand for our products.

你是2025年接任CEO的吧。

So you joined as CEO in 2025.

在这么疯狂的市场里接手领导权，感觉怎么样？

What is it like to take the reins in the craziest market ever?

顺便说说你之前是做什么的？

And also give a little bit of your background of where you were before.

是的，这确实挺有意思的。

Yeah, mean, this is an interesting thing.

你想啊，大多数首席执行官要么退休，要么被董事会请走。

Think if you look at most CEOs, they either retire or somebody retires them for them.

很少有人会主动换公司当CEO，而我运气不错，已经当过三家上市公司的首席执行官了。

You don't see too many CEOs change jobs and I've actually been lucky enough now to be CEO of three different public companies.

我第一任CEO的公司叫Finisar，做光通信的。

The first public company I was a CEO of was a company called Finisar that was optical.

现在这家公司成了我们最大竞争对手之一，同时也是我们的重要合作伙伴Coherent的核心部分。

That's now the heartbeat of one of our biggest competitors but also one of our biggest partners in Coherent.

Coherent的根基，其实就是当年我们卖给他们的Finisar业务。

Coherent's built around the engine that was Finisar that we ended up selling to them.

之后我担任过一家半导体公司的首席执行官。

Then I was the CEO of a semiconductor company.

我主要做半导体这一行，曾担任过Synaptics公司五六年CEO。

I'm mostly a semiconductor guy and I was CEO of a company called Synaptics for five or six years.

后来我加入了Lumentum，就像你提到的，当时董事会给我看了一份预测，说他们觉得公司会怎样发展。

And then I joined Lumentum as you're pointing out at a time where the board of directors showed me a forecast and they said, Hey, here's what we think the company is gonna do.

我当然像大多数人一样，把他们的预测打了个五折，结果实际业绩却是他们预测的四倍。

And I of course, as one does discounted it by about 50% and it's been probably four X over what they even showed me.

我们正好在正确的时间推出了正确的产品。

So we've just hit the company with the right products at absolutely the right time.

其实在我来之前，前任CEO已经打好了基础——产品对路，路线清晰，现在数据中心全面转向光纤技术，我们手里的东西正是市场最需要的。

Really our team, before I got there, the previous CEO set it up well, right products, right roadmap, and we have all of the goods that people are looking for now as they convert their data centers to more and more of the fiber optics.

你是怎么规划的？业绩超预期后，怎么调整策略？

How do you manage that plan and keep pivoting the strategy as you overperform?

我们其实一直在做的是简化。

Actually what we've tried to do, Molly, is simplify.

我刚来公司的时候，发现很多产品还是针对传统电信行业，客户主要是AT&T和威瑞森。

So I think when I came into the company, there was a lot of products that were geared toward the old telecom industry, selling still to AT and T, to Verizon.

我们当时也在做工业激光器，挺有意思的一个领域。

There were products that we were doing that were around industrial lasers interestingly enough.

激光器用来切割汽车门板这类金属部件。

Lasers are used to cut metal for car doors.

也用来加工各种零部件。

They're used to machine different parts.

我们确实有这方面的业务。

And we had a business in that.

于是我决定，咱们得把精力集中在数据中心上。

And what I've done is said, okay, look, let's focus our efforts on the data center.

这里的机会已经足够大了，我们必须尽可能简化业务，集中资源在最有潜力的方向上，也就是数据中心。

There's enough here going on that we really wanna simplify our business as much as we possibly can, focus on where we think the biggest opportunities are, and that's the data center.

现在我们几乎已经变成一家纯粹的数据中心解决方案公司了。

So we've almost become a pure play data center.

降低一些风险，对吧？

Cut some risk, right?

如果数据中心出问题，市场稍微波动一下，我们就被动了。

If the data center ends up rolling over and that market hiccups a bit, we'll be caught.

但我认为这种情况不会发生。

But I don't think that that's gonna happen.

就算像我刚才说的，数据中心建设开始放缓，我们依然非常稳健，因为数据中心内部还在持续从电传输转向光传输。

And even if, as I said a minute ago, you start seeing a slowdown in data center builds, we're in really, really good shape because you still see a conversion inside the data center from electrical to optical.

而且，它们还要进军太空。

Also, they're going to space.

没错，它们也要去太空。我们的朋友SpaceX正在推进这些项目，激光在这些领域同样至关重要。

They're also going to space, Our buddies at SpaceX are trying to do these build outs and obviously lasers are super important for all the same reasons.

如果你能在海底部署激光，实现跨太平洋传输，那在太空中部署激光、构建太空互联网就完全可行，对吧？

If you can put a laser in the ocean and transmit across the Pacific, you can certainly put lasers in space and create this reality of an internet in space, right?

这将是必然的趋势。

It's gonna be necessary.

激光以外的技术难度很高，但我们可以助力实现这一点。

There's a high degree of difficulty outside the lasers but we can help enable that.

这听起来太酷了。

It also sounds super cool.

确实非常酷。

It is super cool.

你知道的，如今激光已经用在像铁穹这样的系统里了，对吧？

I mean, lasers are used today as you likely know in things like the iron dome, right?

用来击落敌方导弹的激光武器。

Lasers you use to shoot down enemy missiles.

所以它们已经在太空中部署了。

So they have been deployed in space.

这些激光器的功率远不如那些武器，但我们在行业内，包括我们公司，在太空部署产品方面已经积累了大量经验。

These are not nearly as powerful as those things but we've had a lot of experience as an industry and certainly our company in deploying products in space.

这点说得非常对。

That's a really good point.

我们采访了汤姆·穆勒，他是SpaceX的第一位员工。

Okay, so we did this interview with Tom Mueller who was the first employee at SpaceX.

我们聊到了太空中的数据中心，视频发布后，YouTube评论区有很多人夸大其词，说激光会杀死鸟类之类的。

And we were talking about data centers in space and we put out the videos and in the YouTube comments, there's a lot of fear mongering about birds and killing birds with the lasers and all that kind of stuff.

你能澄清一下大家对激光威力的那些误解吗？

So can you dispel some of the misconceptions about lasers and their strength?

是的，关键在于功率大小。

Yeah, look, it's all about power.

我给你举个很典型的例子。

I'll give you a really good example, right?

iPhone的面容识别功能，就是用激光扫描你的脸部。

The iPhone with the Face ID, that's a laser product that beams lasers onto your face.

苹果当时最担心的就是，别让激光把人的眼睛灼伤了。

One of the concerns of course Apple had was, hey I don't want to have people's eyes burning out.

所以这些激光的功率其实很低。

So the power of those lasers are relatively modest.

你根本不可能用它烧伤任何人的眼睛。

And you're never gonna burn somebody's eye out.

同样，这些激光在向地球传输数据时，也不会把鸟烧着，一切都取决于功率。

Similarly, you're not gonna have birds burning up as these lasers shoot data down It to the earth, all has to do with the power.

你确实可以拥有功率极高的激光，能击落导弹，甚至切割金属。

You can have these super high powered lasers that can shoot down missiles, that can cut through metal.

你也可以有功率适中的激光，用来支撑互联网骨干网，还有功率极低的激光，比如用于人脸识别的这种。

You can have modestly powered lasers that power the internet backbone, and you can have these super low power lasers that do things like the face ID.

这真的很酷。

That's pretty cool.

如果你正在开发下一代人工智能应用，那你必须了解 MongoDB——这是开发者最爱的数据库平台，专为运行智能代理而设计。

If you're building what's next in AI, you need to know MongoDB, the database platform developers love and built for the agents you're running.

MongoDB 能在同一个系统中实时存储、搜索并分析你的数据，内置 Voyage AI 的向量搜索和嵌入功能。

MongoDB stores, searches, and reasons over your data in real time with vector search and embeddings from Voyage AI all in the same system.

不需要额外的管道，也不用拼凑十种不同的工具。

No separate pipelines, no stitching together 10 different tools.

这就是为什么财富100强中有75%的企业，以及众多领先的AI原生初创公司都在使用MongoDB。

It's why seventy five percent of the Fortune 100 and leading AI native startups run on MongoDB.

从第一个用户开始，一路构建并扩展到数十亿个向量。

Build and scale from your first user to billions of vectors.

前往 mongodb.com/ai 了解更多详情。

Go to mongodb.com/ai to learn more.

更多信息请访问 mongodb.com/ai。

That's mongodb.com/ai to learn more.

再见！

Bye!

AssemblyAI 是一个语音AI基础设施平台，数百万开发者都在使用它。

AssemblyAI is a voice AI infrastructure layer millions of developers build on.

他们开发了业内最出色的语音转文字、语音助手和语音理解模型，成为Granola、HeyGen、Ashby和ClickUp等公司的核心基础设施。

They build the industry's best speech to text, voice agent, and speech understanding models that serve as critical infrastructure for companies like Granola, HeyGen, Ashby, and ClickUp.

他们的语音转文字模型在准确性和质量上遥遥领先，而语音理解模型则能超越简单的转录，帮助你挖掘洞察、识别说话人，并从语音数据中提取关键信息。

Their speech to text models lead the industry in accuracy and quality and their speech understanding models help you go beyond transcription by uncovering insights, identifying speakers, and highlighting key information from voice data.

现在就去 assemblyai.com/sorcery 注册，即可获得50美元免费额度，立即开始构建语音AI产品。

You can get started today at assemblyai.com/sorcery and get $50 of free credits to start building voice AI products.

就是 assemblyai.com/sorcery。

That's assemblyai.comsourcery.

好吧，说到未来，你最期待的是什么？说实话，你可能都想不到那么远，但我就习惯看未来十二个月。

Okay, so thinking about the future, what are you most, I don't even know if you could plan out this far to be honest, but what are you most looking forward to in maybe a time horizon that makes sense for you, but I usually say twelve months.

十二个月的话，接下来这一年里，我们肯定会看到一种叫‘光速扩展’的趋势。

Twelve months, look, one of the things that we will see within the next twelve months is this idea of what we call optical scale up.

那什么是光速扩展呢？

So what is optical scale up?

我猜你今天早些时候跟托尼聊过了，他是业内顶尖的头脑之一。

I know you talked to Tony earlier today and he's one of the bright minds in the industry.

能和他聊上，真是运气不错。

Very lucky to get that conversation.

如果你看看机架，看看那些超大规模云服务商部署的服务器，绕到背面一看，全是网线。

Optical scale up, if you look at a rack, you look at one of these servers that gets deployed by a hyperscaler and you go creep around the backside, there are a ton of ethernet cables.

现在你在家或者办公室工作时，可能还会用网线连接电脑。

I mean, probably use ethernet in your house today maybe to wire your PC as you're doing all your work at home or in the office.

电脑侧面不是插着一根网线吗？

There's an ethernet cable that plugs into the side of the PC, right?

你要是看机架，背后全是这种网线，绵延几英里都是电线。

And if you look at a rack, there's tons and tons of these ethernet cables, miles and miles of wire that run-in the back of the servers.

接下来十二个月，我们会看到一部分铜线被光纤取代。

And in the next twelve months, we'll see some of those copper wires move to optical.

其实今天在大会上，我和托尼也聊过这个，光纤成本更高。

Now the reality, Tony and I were talking about it earlier today over at the conference, optics is more expensive.

所以除非非用不可，大家都不想换。

So people don't wanna do it if they don't have to.

光纤比铜线贵多了。

It's a more expensive medium than is copper.

铜线已经是成熟方案了。

Copper is a well trod path.

大家都能理解。

People understand it.

大家也明白这其中的成本。

People understand the expense that there is.

通常大家会尽量避免用光纤，但现在机架后部的连接在物理层面已经逼得你非用不可了。

And generally they'll try to avoid using optics but it's getting to a point where the physics of the back of that rack, that connectivity that sits in the back of the rack is such that you have to do it.

目前数据中心里其实已经有很多光纤了。

And so we already have a lot of fiber optics in the data center.

但我们还没在机架内部大规模部署光纤。

We don't have yet, we don't have deployments in these racks themselves.

数据中心内部的横向连接我们早就有了，也就是所谓的横向扩展，但纵向扩展还没见到。

We have a lot of connections inside the data center that go out, we call scale out, but we don't yet see scale up.

我觉得未来十二个月就会出现，这会推动光通信行业前所未有的出货量。

I think in the next twelve months we will and that's gonna drive volumes that are unprecedented in the optical industry.

出货量将达到数千万甚至上亿级别，而我们过去习惯的规模只是几千而已。

Volumes of tens, hundreds of millions of units where again, we're sort of used to dealing in scales of thousands.

你去过最不可思议的地方是哪儿？

Where is the craziest place that this has taken you?

这是个好问题。

That's a good question.

有意思的是，你可能也清楚，目前超大规模客户的主要力量都在美国。

I mean, what's interesting and you probably appreciate this, most of the hyperscalers and the strength right now is in The US.

美国市场一直非常强劲。

So US market has been incredibly strong.

我们的业务重心几乎全在美国。

Our business is very heavily centered on The US.

中国市场挺难做的。

China is a difficult market.

你以前几期节目也提到过，中美在光器件供应和中国数据中心的采购之间，地缘政治关系非常复杂。

And you've talked about this I think in some of your previous shows, the geopolitics of China are very tricky between the optical component suppliers and how much we supply into the Chinese data centers, very little.

我们卖给中国数据中心的设备其实很少。

We don't supply very much gear into the Chinese data centers.

而中国的光器件供应商，我们的一些竞争对手在美国数据中心的业务规模相当大。

Whereas Chinese optical component suppliers, some of our competitors have a pretty big footprint in US data centers.

所以围绕这种情况的地缘政治争议一直很多。

So there's been a lot of push and pull around the geopolitics of the situation.

我们会看到一种局面吗？无论是政府还是客户，都强制要求更多使用美国本土的产品？

Are we gonna see a world where it gets mandated by either the government or by the customers themselves to use more US content?

拭目以待吧，目前供应商在美国市场的存在感还是很强的。

We'll see, right now, suppliers have a pretty big presence in The US market.

好了，快结束之前，我想问一个关于我们合作伙伴的问题，是Brex。

Okay, well as we close out, I have one question dedicated to one of our partners, it's Brex.

他们做的是企业绩效信用卡。

They're a performance credit card, corporate credit card.

主打精明消费、高效运转，但我个人也从这个角度去理解。

So they're all about spending smarter, moving faster, but I take this in a personal lens.

所以我特别想听听你的看法。

So I'm really curious from your standpoint.

你取得了非常了不起的职业成就。

You've built up a tremendous career.

你当过三家上市公司的首席执行官。

You've been CEO of three public companies.

我觉得，成功的一部分在于你身边围绕着什么样的人，谁在指导你，谁又给了你启发，这些人在你成长路上都很关键。

I like to think performance, a component of that is like who you surround yourself with, who you're mentored by, who you're inspired by, those types of figures along the way.

对你来说，哪些人是这样的榜样呢？

Who are those figures for you?

说实话，我真的很幸运。

Look, I've been super lucky.

你提到Brex和绩效，我觉得你选的主题和合作伙伴都特别贴切。

You talk about Brex and performance and I think you've got the right theme and the right partner for what you're doing.

我确实非常幸运。

I've been very lucky.

我父亲很有意思，他是一名电气工程师。

My father, interestingly enough, was an electrical engineer, right?

他是最早从欧洲移民过来的电气工程师之一。

He was one of the first electrical engineers that came over from Europe.

他当时定居在英国，就在我出生前不久搬了过来。

He was actually based in The United Kingdom and came over just shortly before I was born.

他对我的影响非常大。

And he had tremendous influence.

我小时候，他跟我说，大学想选什么专业都行，只要最后一个是‘工程’就行。

He told me as I was growing up, you can have any major you want in college just as long as the last word is engineering.

电气、机械、土木，随便你挑，但你必须当工程师。

Electrical, mechanical, civil, don't care, gotta be an engineer.

我觉得他对我产生了深远的影响。

And he had tremendous impact I think on me.

后来我进入职场，在一家叫博通的公司待了很多年，我知道你们已经对这家公司做过很多报道。

Then as I got into my career I spent a lot of years at a company called Broadcom which I know you've covered pretty extensively.

博通这家公司挺特别的，它被安华高收购后，保留了‘博通’这个名字。

Broadcom was a very interesting company in that it was bought by Avago and then the name stayed, the Broadcom name was the surviving name.

但在博通公司，有一位叫鲍勃·兰格尔的先生，我跟他共事了很多年。

But there was a gentleman at Broadcom, a guy called Bob Rangel that I worked for years and years.

鲍勃曾担任过多个董事会成员，职业生涯漫长而辉煌，但他对我的商业思维和处理商业问题的方式影响深远。

Bob served on several boards and had a long and prestigious career, but he had a lot of impact on me as a business guy and how I think about business problems.

这太了不起了。

That's amazing.

托尼说的是一些已故的人。

Tony said dead people.

哦，那是另一回事。

Okay, that's a different one.

托尼是个历史学家，对吧？

See Tony's a historian, right?

我问托尼世界杯的事，他倒问：谁在比赛？

I asked Tony about the World Cup and he's like, who's playing?

他特别关注历史、艺术这类东西。

He focuses very much on history and art and things like that.

他在巴黎有一处房产。

He's got a place here in Paris.

他真是个学识渊博的人。

So he's a very erudite gentleman.

这种水平我没法比，莫莉，我真的比不了。

So I can't compete with that Molly, I can't.

他说起凯撒和拿破仑，我们只好说：行吧，你这水平真不是一般的高。

He said Caesar and Napoleon and we're like, all right, you're on another level You over

你赢了，确实你赢了。

you win, yeah, you win.

他是个特别出色的人。

He's a brilliant guy.

太棒了，迈克尔，非常感谢你。

Amazing, well Michael, thank you so much.

谢谢你抽出时间。

Appreciate you taking the time.

谢谢你们邀请我来到巴黎这么美的地方，正对着杜乐丽花园，对吧？

Thank you, thank you for having me in this beautiful place here in Paris overlooking the Le Tuileries, right?

这地方不错。

Not too bad.

我之前不知道它叫这个名字，现在知道了。

I didn't know that's what it was called, but now I know.

这下明白了吧？

There you go.

你们学到了吧？

You guys learned, see?

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

衷心感谢RAISE团队带来如此精彩的活动，也感谢Brex、MongoDB和AssemblyAI让这次行程和系列分享成为可能。

Huge thank you to the entire RAISE team for an incredible event, and thank you to Brex, MongoDB, and AssemblyAI for making this trip and series possible.

如果你喜欢这场对话，那你一定会爱上RAISE系列的其他内容，比如来自黑石的Tony Kim、来自Cognition的Scott Wu、来自Cerebras的Andrew Feldman、来自Salmanova的Rodrigo Yang、来自Lumentum的Michael Hurlston、来自MongoDB的CJ Desai，还有更多嘉宾——我们还在一个秘密地点录了一些火辣的点评，你可以在X、YouTube和Instagram上找到。

If you enjoyed this conversation, you're going to love the rest of the RAISE series with Tony Kim from BlackRock, Scott Wu from Cognition, Andrew Feldman from Cerebras, Rodrigo Yang from Salmanova, Michael Hurlston from Lumentum, CJ Desai from MongoDB, and many, many more like our hot takes that we did at a secret location that you can find on X, YouTube, and Instagram.

在YouTube上订阅Sorcery，收看更多与塑造AI领域的人的对话，同时免费订阅我们的通讯。

Subscribe to Sorcery on YouTube for more conversations with the people shaping AI and join the free newsletter.

你也可以选择付费订阅，访问sorcery.vc，每周获取关于AI、机器人、企业软件、消费科技、半导体的深度洞察——我刚才说到AI了吗？

You can also do paid, at sorcery.vc for weekly insights on AI, robotics, enterprise software, consumer, semiconductors, did I say AI?

对，又是AI，还有所有即将来临的趋势，比如融资动态和科技界的大事件。

AI again, and everything that's coming next, like funding announcements and all big things in tech.

谢谢。

Thank you.

再见。

Bye.