Gold and Silver Are Entering a Historic Supercycle

您正在收听Sprott Money News的《问专家》节目。

You're listening to ask the expert on Sprott Money News.

再次问候，这里是Sprott Money。

Hello again from Sprott Money.

Sprottmoney.com。

Sprottmoney.com.

现在已经到了七月中旬，这意味着又到了每月一次的《问专家》环节。

We've reached the about the middle point of July, and that means it's time for your ask the expert segment, something we do every single month.

这个月，我很高兴请到了诺米·普林斯，她是分析师、作家，也可以称她为华尔街内部人士。

And this month, I'm happy to host Nomi Prins, analyst, author, call her Wall Street insider.

我更愿意称她为好朋友。

And I like to call her a good friend.

我们认识很久了。

We've known each other for quite a long time.

所以能听听她的想法总是很好的。

And so it's always good to get her thoughts.

诺米，非常感谢你加入我们聊市场。

Nomi, thank you so much for joining me to talk about the markets.

是的，非常感谢。

Yeah, thanks so much.

很高兴再次见到你。

Great to see you again.

我也很高兴见到你。

Great to see you too.

再次提醒大家，请记住几件事。

Again, everybody, please remember a couple of things.

第一，这些内容是由Sprott Money免费提供给你们的。

One, Sprott Money is who puts this content out there for you free of charge.

所以请点赞或订阅，或者，如果你正在逢低买入，就去sprottmoney.com。

So hit the like or the subscribe button or, hey, if you're in the market buying the dip, go to sprottmoney.com.

他们会帮你的。

They will help you out.

贵金属有很好的优惠，还有金属存储服务。

Great deals on precious metal, but also storing that metal.

所以去sprottmoney.com看看吧。

So go to sprottmoney.com and, check that out.

另外，一定要去看看诺米的内容。

And then be sure to check out, Nomi's content.

你可以在nomiprins.com找到她。

You can find her, nomiprins.com.

我会把她这些年写的所有书的链接都放出来。

I'm gonna link to all the different books she's written over the years.

还有她提供的其他一些服务。

Some of the other services she provides.

去她的Substack看看。

Go to her substack.

还有Prins的网站。

Prins sites.

嘿，我明白你刚才那招了。

Hey, I see what you did there.

对。

Yeah.

不是洞察。

Not insights.

普林斯网站。

Prins sites.

好吧。

Alright.

普林斯网站。

Prins sites.

Prinsights.substack.com。

Prinsights.substack.com.

随时了解诺米的最新想法。

Keep up to date on what Nomi's thinking.

我们现在就来听听诺米现在在想什么。

We're gonna find out what Nomi's thinking right now.

不过诺米，我想先问一下。

Nomi, I wanna start, though.

你是一位非常出色的作家，已经写了六七本书了。

You are a, a very proficient author, and you've got six or seven books that you've written.

是的，七本，快八本了。

Yes, seven coming on eight.

我连一本都写不出来，但你可能没有我那样的多动症。

I can't even write one, but you have the you don't maybe have the same ADHD that I have.

我容易分心。

I get squirrel.

我太容易走神了。

I'm a little too distracted.

所以，不管怎样，我想回到刚才的话题，因为我现在脑子里一直想着这个。

So, anyway, I wanna go back though because this is currently on my mind.

你在2011年写了一本书，叫《黑色星期二》，讲的是差不多一百年前发生的事情。

You wrote a book back in 2011 called Black Tuesday about the events of what's basically now a hundred years ago.

而你最近的一本书叫《永久扭曲》，副标题是《金融市场如何抛弃实体经济》。

And your most recent book is called Permanent Distortion with the subtitle of How Financial Markets Abandon the Real Economy.

我最近正在读安德鲁·R.

I'm in the process of reading the Andrew R.

索尔金写的那本关于1929年的书。

Sorkin book, 1929.

所以这些事一直在我脑子里转。

So all this is on my mind.

历史总是重复上演，就像押韵一样。索尔金的书里也提到一些相似之处，你知道，在二十年代，人们都说，哎呀，我不能下去。

And that history repeating rhyming, that kind of thing and some of the similarities in Sorkin's book, you know, in the twenties, he talks about how people are like, oh, I can't go down.

现在这已经是个全球性的事了，还有各种投机活动在进行。

We're it's a global thing now and all this stuff and all the speculation going on.

作为一位作家和专家，你研究过这些东西。

As an author, an expert, you've studied this stuff.

和一百年前相比，相似度有多高？

How much does it rhyme versus 100 years ago?

有意思的是，确实正好是一百年。

It is really interesting that it is 100 years.

我们一直把1929年当作一个神秘的过去，但现在我们正接近那个百年节点。

And we talked about 1929 as some mystical past date, but we're heading up to that century.

很多方面其实没变，只是投机的方式不同了。

A lot of things have stayed the same in that there are different ways to speculate.

这些投机方式脱离了真实市场和真实资产的表现，而在1929年之前，情况也是这样。

That divorce themselves from the real market and the behavior of real assets and in the lead up to 1929.

你知道，当时房地产投机非常猖獗。

You know, there was rampant speculation in real estate.

信托和银行股、其他公司股票也投机严重，大量囤积，吸引人们进场，然后内部人从真正的买家脚下抛售，最终导致了崩盘，还有很多其他因素。

There was rampant speculation and trust in bank stocks and other types of corporate stocks and amassing them and getting sort of people in and then the insiders selling them off from basically underneath real buyers and, you know, sort of led to the crash and so many things going on.

金融和金融体系、机制、工具之间一直存在一个核心差异——这些词听起来很宏大，但金融运作的方式和现实世界运作的方式是不同的，因为现实世界反映的是我们日常的需求和行为，而金融只是这种需求的另一种表现形式。

And there's an element, that's always been prevalent, in the difference between finance and financial systems and mechanisms and instruments, all of these like big words, but the way in which finance works and the way in which the real world works, because the real world is really the reflection of what we need and do day to day and finances, you know, a different kind of manifestation of that.

所以确实有相似之处，比如我们只看一个小例子，比如最近银价的波动，我们有一个很大的交易所交易基金叫SLV。

So there's similarities like if we just look at, something small, like the latest shift in silver prices, we have a huge exchange traded fund called SLV.

它代表了很多白银，但人们可以持有纸面头寸，而背后所谓的实物白银却不一定有那么多。

There's a lot that represents silver, but in that people can take paper positions and what is allegedly real silver behind it.

我说“所谓”是因为SLV的份额像股票一样交易，交易速度以纳秒计，交易量巨大，每份代表0.9盎司实物白银，而这些白银被锁在某个地方。

I say allegedly because the idea of a share in SLV and it trades like shares and trade with nanoseconds, big volumes, is that they each represent 0.9, of an ounce of actual silver and somewhere the silver is all locked up.

如果每个人都卖出SLV的所有份额，他们都能拿到自己的白银。

If everybody sold every share of SLV, they'd all get their silver.

但实际上并不是这样运作的。

It doesn't work that actual way.

实际上，平均来看，仅仅是SLV。

In reality, the average just SLV.

有很多不同的金属交易所交易基金，包括白银，但SLV是最大的，平均每天交易约2500万到5000万盎司，据称代表实物白银，在波动大的时期，比如六月底，白银几天内暴跌，交易量高达5000万盎司。算一下，仅这一个ETF，一年就交易50亿到100亿盎司白银。

There's many different exchange traded funds for metals, including silver, but just SLV the largest and trades on average about 25 to 50,000,000 ounces allegedly that represent real silver a day in major volatility periods like at the end of June, when silver was totally dumping in a couple of days, it trades up to 50,000,000 ounces To do the math on that, that's between just trading one ETF, 5,000,000,000 to 10,000,000,000 ounces of silver a year.

我们每年从地下开采的白银只有约8亿盎司，而且我们已经连续六年出现结构性短缺，实际需要的实物白银量超过了开采量。所以，这还只是一个ETF。

We only extract About 800,000,000 ounces of silver per year from the ground, and we are at the sixth year of a structural deficit in that extraction for what is actually needed in terms of real silver from the ground, So and that's one ATF.

所以这种扭曲的程度，你知道，我在书里提到过，从1929年那种工具到今天的相似性和演变，这种扭曲还在继续蔓延。

So the magnitude of distortion, you know, mentioned my book, the magnitude of distortion, you know, from 1929 type of instruments, similarities and additions into today's world continues to run rampant.

所以这就是为什么，你知道，跟着钱走很重要，但也要关注钱在哪里以及它是如何被扭曲的。

And that's why you know, it's important to follow the money, but also to follow where and how is it being distorted.

所以你还可以看看长期的投资趋势，比如黄金、白银，以及那些你无法真正扭曲的实物大宗商品。

So you can also look at where the long term investment trends are like with gold, like with silver, like with physical commodities that you can't actually distort.

对。

Right.

而且，这大概就是为什么历史会重演，对吧？

And again, that's why I guess history rhymes, right?

因为人还是那些人，银行家也还是那些银行家。

Because people are still people and bankers are still bankers.

我，嗯，我其实今天来之前做了点准备，想跟你聊聊。

I Nomi, I I went in kinda preparing myself to speak with you today.

我翻了翻你的书。

I was looking through your book.

我没想到《总统的银行家们》差不多是十二年前出版的。

I didn't realize all the president's bankers came out nearly twelve years ago.

真是不可思议。

It's insane.

那是很久以前的事了，而且我觉得实际上索尔金的所有书，不是全部，但我们似乎有这种平行的轨迹，在差不多同一年或相差一两年内出版书籍，因为我们关注的是金融体系历史的不同部分，等等。

It was a long time ago, and I think actually all of Sorkin's books, not all of them, but we seem to have this sort of parallel track and publishing a book like within the same actual year within a year or two of each other as we sort of follow different parts of the, you know, just the financial system history, etcetera.

但没错，已经快十二年了。

But yeah, it was 12 going on.

是的，很多年前了。

Yeah, years ago.

有什么变化吗？

Has anything changed?

我的意思是，我记得十二年前读它的时候，心想，天哪。

I mean, I remember reading it twelve years ago going, Oh, geez.

再说一次，这是诺米的书之一，《总统的银行家们》，有点像《总统班底》。

And again, this is, one of Nomi's books, All the President's Bankers, like kind of a plan, the President's Men.

你写这本书之后，有什么变化吗？

What's changed since you wrote it?

因为那本书对当时的状况和体制批评得非常尖锐。

Because it was such a scathing critique of the current situation and system.

是的，那本书涵盖了一个多世纪的历史。

Yeah, it was over a century of history.

有意思的是，我现在正在写的这本书叫《商品战争》，它实际上和那本书形成了一个历史呼应。我在重新审视那本书里提到的一些历史细节，那本书主要从洛克菲勒时代、摩根时代开始讲起，那时候就是少数几个大型金融工业巨头主导的时代。

Interestingly enough, the current book I'm working on, Commodity Wars, actually does a historical loop to that book, and I'm reexamining some of the additions to the history that we look at in that all presence bankers really started with the Rockefeller era, the JPMorgan era, you know, the real era where there you know, a few large financialindustrial titans.

摩根一直做金融。

Morgan was always financial.

洛克菲勒主要是靠石油起家的工业巨头，后来也通过董事会席位等方式涉足金融领域。

Rockefeller kind of was industrial with oil and then sort of straddled with, you know, board seats and everything else.

最终，整个大通银行的基础设施都建立起来了。

Ultimately, the whole chase infrastructure.

现在我们就有了摩根大通。

Now we've got JPMorgan Chase.

他们家族之间都互相联姻了，你知道，就我们现在看到的这个实体，我做的就是追溯了其中一部分。

They all married physically each other's families and, you know, in terms of the entity that we have now, and what I did was I traced some of that.

但我也回头看了看，从那个时期到现在，有什么变化。其实，最初推动融资和资本，以及银行让朋友存款、跟他们做交易来垄断市场、搞并购这些，全都建立在商品的基础上。

But I also looking back what has changed, and actually gone back to that period is that what drove the initial financing and capital and the ability of banks to like have their friends deposit and do deals with them to basically corner the market, M and A, the whole nine yards was based on commodities.

最初是靠卡内基、洛克菲勒、钢铁、工厂、福特、汽车，还有他需要的玻璃、石油，所有这些实物商品。但历史上，包括我自己，都更关注金融那一面。

It was originally based on Carnegie, Rockefeller, steel, factories, Ford, cars, the needs that he had, glass, oil, all of these physical commodities that over history, we really pay attention as did I to the financial side of that.

但实际上，如果没有围绕实物资产运转的那些机制，金融那一面根本不会存在。

But really the financial side wouldn't have existed without all the mechanisms that were going around the physical assets.

所以有趣的是，这一点没变，但我们好像又绕回来了。

So that's what's interesting that it hasn't changed, but we've kind of come full circle.

现在，我觉得实物资产正迎来它们的超级周期时刻，那些参与其中的人也一样。

Now the physical assets, I think are having more of their mega super cycle moment, as are the people that are involved in them.

不过，就人员流动而言，我追踪了华盛顿和华尔街之间、财政部和大银行CEO之间的旋转门。

In terms of people, in terms of the revolving door, though, that I followed between Washington and Wall Street, the Treasury Department and the CEOs of major banks.

这一点基本上没变。

That's pretty much stayed in there.

你知道的，高盛出来的校友有多少成了财政部长，或者从摩根大通出来的顾问，还有华盛顿各个部门里那些和华尔街各部门直接挂钩的旋转门。

I mean, you know the amount of Goldman Sachs alumni who become Treasury secretaries or, the advisers that have come out of Chase and all the sorts of revolving doors in different departments of Washington that have kind of a straight line through the different departments on Wall Street.

这一点基本上没变。

That's pretty much stayed the same.

就连我们的财政部长也不是高盛出来的，但当然，掌管钱袋子的人之间肯定有很多关系，就像他们说的，我也在看《龙之家族》。

Even our Treasury Secretary is not from Goldman Sachs, but mean, certainly a lot of relationships between who runs the coin as they say, I'm also watching House of Dragons.

那时候，黄金是个大场面，就在最近一集里，谁掌管国家、政策怎么定，不管是国家战略防御、经济还是能源政策，都建立在商品和金融放大之间的关系上。

Back then, gold was a big scene just in the recent episode, and who runs the country and how policies are set, whether it's national strategic defense, whether it's economic, whether it's energy policy on the back of these relationships between commodities and then sort of how they're amplified in finance.

这些也都没怎么变。

None of that's really changed either.

只是换了不同的人、不同的面孔，但机构还是那些机构。

It's sort of different people, different faces, but similar institutions.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Right.

你说得对，关于《龙之家族》的。

You're right about House of Dragon.

就像他们引用了老摩根的那句话，关于他是谁，黄金制定规则，对吧？

It's like they read the old JP Morgan quote about who he was, the gold makes the rules, right?

他们真的，这是最近一集的重点。

They're really, that's a big focus of the most recent.

确实。

It is.

我是说，如果你看到了那个，而且实际上，有趣的是，好市多开始卖金条，向他们的顾客开放。

I mean, if you saw that, I mean, and actually, interestingly, we had Costco selling gold bars, opening that up to their customers.

我们有，《龙之家族》基本上在讲，摩根家族的故事，对吧？

We've got, House of Dragons basically talking about, House of Morgan, right?

在讲黄金和货币。

Talking about gold and the coin.

有趣的是，很多这些，当然商品方面已经变得越来越主流了。

It's interesting that that a lot of this, certainly the commodity side has become more and more mainstream.

不是说这些年没有，但我们现在处在一个特别的时期，信息更多，讨论更多，还有电视节目真的在深入挖掘大宗商品。

Not that it hasn't over the years, but we're in particular period where there's just more information and discussion and TV shows that are really digging into literally, commodities.

对，确实。

Yeah, for sure.

这正好让我想到，好吧，我接下来其实不想问你关于凯文·沃什的事。

This leads me right into, well, I don't wanna ask you next about Kevin Warsh.

杰里·鲍威尔至少是出了名的律师出身，或者不管他背景是什么，不一定算华尔街的人，但也许他沾点边。

Jerry Powell at least was famously a lawyer or whatever his background was, not necessarily a Wall Street, but maybe he kinda was tangentially.

但是，沃什接替鲍威尔。

But, Warsh comes in to replace Powell.

而且我觉得，对我来说，他有点在努力树立自己的威信，诺米。

And I I think, to me, he's kinda trying to establish his gravitas, Nomi.

你懂吧？

You know?

他不只是特朗普的傀儡。

He's not just a sock puppet for Trump.

我们会很强硬的。

We're gonna be tough.

我们会照顾小人物，履行我们的职责，还有这些乱七八糟的。

We're gonna look out for the little guy and mandate, you know, our mandate and all this kind of jazz.

他说通货膨胀是第一要务，要帮助小人物，而且他会控制好资产负债表。

And he he says he's inflation's the number one priority to help the little guy, and he's gonna get the balance unit control.

我不知道。

I don't know.

你怎么看？

What do you make of it?

我是说，他跟其他人有什么不同吗？

I mean, where do you is he any different than any of the rest?

你刚才说的关于他的第一点很有意思，因为我同意你说的那种威严感。

So what you said, the first thing you said about him was interesting because I I agree with you about the sort of gravitas element.

美联储主席这个职位，任期要长得多。

The role of the chair, at the Fed has a much longer life.

嗯，这个职位比一届总统任期要长，你知道，特朗普现在已经是最后一届了。

Well, it has a longer life than one term of a presidency in which you know Trump is in his last term.

所以，如果你想在这个职位上发号施令，拥有那种权力，或者最大化你的权力地位——历史上他们每个人都是以不同的方式做到的——沃尔什上任时基本上就是发表了一个声明，说他会减少声明。

And as a result, if you're gonna command in that role and have that sort of power or maximize your power position, which they have all done in their different ways over the history over the years, you know, Worsch came in and basically made a statement about how he would give fewer statements.

我的意思是，他基本上就是说，在他的美联储领导下，声明会少一些，而且最初的声明确实短了不少，但他会减少对市场的指引。

I mean, he basically said that, you know, under under his fed, there would be less and the initial statement was was was quite a bit shorter in words, but that he would he would provide less guidance for guidance to the markets.

而且我觉得他隐含的意思就是会根据数据来，这其实就是鲍威尔所做的或者说所说的，只是方式不同而已。

And I think implicitly saying it would be data related, which is exactly what Powell did or said anyway, just in a different way.

我不是说他们俩是同一类人，但他们确实担任这个角色，而且不管他们和总统、国会或者银行界的关系如何，他们都得在这个职位上留下自己的印记。

I'm not saying they're like the same two people, but they do have this role and they do have to put their own stamp on it regardless of the relationships they may have with the president or Congress or the banking community.

我觉得这就是他通过说“听着，我们基本上会关注通胀”来传达的意思。

And I think that's what we're did by saying, Look, basically, we're going to be looking at inflation.

我们会按照美联储应有的方式来运作，你知道，帮助普通人，等等等等，强调这个使命。但是，你知道，也有很多讨论说通胀指标可能也得改。

We're going to run this fed like, the Fed's supposed to be run, you know, helping the little person, etcetera, etcetera, you know, emphasizing the mandate, But, you know, there's also a lot of conversation about how the inflation metrics might have to be changed as well.

现在通胀就是这样。

Inflation is right now.

显然，这是因为伊朗局势导致油价飙升，但你知道，最近几次数据，通胀率在4%出头，之前是3%多，再之前我们降到了2%多。

And obviously it's come up because of the oil spikes because of what's going on in Iran, But you know, in the last couple prints, you're talking low fours, high threes before that we had gotten down to sort of mid high twos.

这算是相当平均的通胀水平了。

That's pretty average inflation.

所以，那种认为通胀可以随时间被“压低”到某个具体数字的想法，比如美联储过去几十年一直说的2%通胀目标，其实挺不现实的。

So this idea that, of what we have over time that inflation can even be quote knocked down, to what the current Literally pick a number and just make it stick or or let's use it 2% inflation that the Fed has talked about for the past few decades.

这真的不太行。

It's really it really doesn't.

这真的不重要。

It really doesn't matter in that.

我觉得美联储在他的领导下会这样做。

I think the Fed is going to under his Fed.

会有不同的衡量标准，或者他们会讨论用不同的方式来看待各种数据。

There's going to be different metrics metrics or they're going to talk about looking at various numbers in different ways.

我觉得我们需要做的是，准备好迎接某种声明、研究报告或组合，来真正解释通胀的驱动因素。

I think what we need to do, we're looking for this is be prepared for some sort of statement, a research report or combination that talks about what's really driving inflation in a way.

这也是我在《永久扭曲》里提到的一个主要主题。

And this is one of the major themes that I had in permanent distortion.

自从那本书在2022年出版以来，这种情况更加明显了，也就是说，美联储和各国央行实际上无法控制通胀。

It's only more so since that book came out, which is in 2022, which is that, you know, the Fed central banks can't actually control inflation.

他们能控制的是资金成本。

They can control the cost of money.

他们某种程度上能控制货币供应量，但如果你退一步看，你会发现货币供应量其实也不太在乎利率水平。

They can sort of control money supply, which if you just look at it and zoom out, you'll notice that it doesn't really care about where rates are either.

但在短期内，它确实可以通过这种方式被操纵。

But in the short term, it can sort of be manipulated that way.

但再说一次，美联储无法控制实物资产，就像我们现在谈到的黄金、白银、铜、铝、稀土、铀和石油。

But again, the Fed cannot control real assets as we're talking about gold now and silver and copper and aluminum and rare earths and uranium oil.

它完全没有能力控制供应链的任何环节。

It has no ability to control the supply chain at any level.

所以，认为任何央行通过收紧长期资金就能随意控制通胀，这种想法有点随意。

So the idea of it being an arbitrary any central bank of inflation by the tightening of some money in the long end is a bit It's a bit arbitrary.

我的意思是，事实就是，美联储把利率从5.25降到现在的3.75，整个过程通胀都一直高于2%。

I mean, it is just that we saw inflation over two percent the entire time that the Fed reduced rates from 5.25 to the three seventy five that they are now all the time.

而且每次FOMC会议，市场都担心通胀是不是太高了，美联储会怎么做，结果他们还是在通胀高于目标的情况下降息了。

And with all of the angst in the market about each FOMC meeting and whether or not inflation was too high in the interim, what the Fed would do, they cut rates while inflation was above their target.

这就是实际发生的情况。

That's what actually happened.

每次关于能不能降息的争论都让市场非常恐慌，也引发了很多波动。

The debate about whether that could happen each time was very fear provoking in the markets and it created a lot of waves.

但现在回过头来看，鲍威尔任期内的事情已经尘埃落定，事实就是如此。

But the reality now that it's all been done and dusted for the Powell period is that's what happened.

还有在鲍威尔任期内，以及战争初期，美联储的资产负债表从去年12月开始增长，显然在疫情期间也增长了。

Also what happened under Powell and so far into the beginning of war, she's the Fed's balance sheet grew from December of this year, obviously grew into Covid.

后来有所回落。

It came back.

从2025年12月到现在，它增长了大约2500亿美元，这差不多相当于同期发行的十年期国债的规模。

It grew from December 2025 through now by about $250,000,000,000 which is about equivalent to how much Treasury bonds in the tenure issued around that same period.

我不是说他们只买十年期国债，但这个数字差不多相当于在试图缓解抛售或机构央行对长期美国国债投资减少的影响。

I'm not saying they're only buying ten years, but the numbers equate to sort of trying to dampen the effect of sell offs or less institutional central bank investment in long term U.

美国国债。

S Treasury bonds.

不管原因是什么，资产负债表确实增长了。

Whatever the reason for it is that the book did grow.

所以我觉得在更糟的情况下，他也没法缩减这个规模。

And so I think under worse, he's not going to be able to dial that back.

他没法收回。

He's not going to be able to take away.

量化紧缩的结束。

The end of Q T.

因为我觉得这对美国不利。

Because I don't think it's in the best interest of the U.

美国财政部。

S Treasury.

这不符合国家管理通胀的利益，也不利于管理那笔不断增长的巨额债务的偿还成本。

It's not in the best interest of managing the inflation of the country, in managing the cost of servicing the massive debt that keeps growing that the country has.

归根结底，美联储这个机构从技术上讲是为了给银行体系提供流动性，并维护金融体系的稳定。

And at the end of the day, the Fed is an institution that's technically there to provide liquidity to the banking system and stability to the financial system.

它实际上并不是官方为了把通胀压低那么一两个百分点而存在的，而且这些通胀本来也不是它能控制的。

It's not really there officially to dial back inflation by a couple of ticks here or there, which really can't control anyway.

只是自从新冠疫情以来，以及我们看到供应恢复时出现的高峰，还有那之后到现在的一系列操作，我们才逐渐接受了这种说法。

It's just we've adapted this narrative mostly since COVID and since we saw those very high spikes when supply started again and all the maneuvering since then and in between then and now with the straight.

但实际上，如果从现在到年底加息25个基点，对控制通胀来说，效果不会太大。

But really it's not going to do very much, with respect to being able to control and if we have a 25 basis points hike between now and the end of the year.

那就像，你知道的，那就像一次象征性的加息。

That's like a you know, that's like a statement hike.

那并不会真正产生什么实质性的影响。

That's not anything that's really going do something one way or the other.

也许他们真的只能做到这一步了。

Maybe that's really all they can.

就像你说的，他们可以通过口头表态来影响推动通胀的情绪。

Like you said, they can kind of jawbone, you know, to try to impact the emotion that drives inflation in the first place.

你知道吗，你提到这个挺有意思的，因为回到历史，1907年的恐慌什么的，美联储是什么时候成立的？

I, you know, it's funny you mentioned that because, again, getting back to history, the panic of nineteen oh seven or whatever, when was the enactment of the Federal Reserve?

他们不是试图把美联储的成立宣传成一种防止类似事件再次发生的方式吗？

Didn't they try to sell that as this is a way we're going to keep that from happening again?

没错，就是这样。

Well, that's it.

我真的很喜欢你对那段历史的分析。

I do love your historical analysis on that.

1907年的恐慌其实和铜有关，挺讽刺的。

1907, the panic actually was about copper, ironically.

回到那种实物资产，尤其是当时，这种资产从地里开采出来就有限制，而现在我们走向电气化，原因又不同了。

Back to the on an asset that actually has a physical restriction from the ground, especially at that time and for a different reason as we go to electrification now.

对，当时垄断那个市场引发了一大堆问题。

Yeah, there was a ton of problems with cornering that market.

银行关门，保证金被追缴，摩根大通把一群人叫到他的书房里，说我们得做点什么，票据又退回去了，这些在总统的银行家们和其他地方都有记载。

Banks closed, margins got called, JPMorgan got a bunch of people into his library and said, we need to do something, notes went back, it's all in all the President's bankers and other places.

我读过那些真实的信件和票据，在华盛顿来回传递，讨论如何让摩根有效地解决那次恐慌，最终也确实解决了。

I read the actual letters, notes going back and forth to Washington about how to enable Morgan to effectively fix the panic, which ultimately happened.

那算是第一次量化宽松，其实就是财政部给摩根大通开了张2500万美元的支票。

It was the first QE, it was actually $25,000,000 basic check from Treasury Department to JP Morgan.

然后他把这些钱分给了他的朋友们。

They doled it out to his friends.

当然，多年以后，经过很多讨论，1913年通过了《联邦储备法》，在威尔逊政府时期推行的，就像你提到的，是为了平衡华尔街投机者和全国各地的银行之间的竞争，联邦储备系统监管着12个不同的储备中心，让它们都变得更好，让资金流动起来，中部地区的农民需要资金，芝加哥需要，旧金山也需要，它想让一切变得更好。

And then of course, years later, a lot of conversations, Fed Reserve Act was passed in 1913 and it was sold under the Wilson administration, as you mentioned, to be this way of equaling the playing field between what was happening in Wall Street, the speculators, that part of the market and all of the banks throughout the country, the 12 different reserve focal points that the Federal Reserve is supervising and make them all better, make the money flow, farmers needed it in the middle of the country, Chicago needed it, San Francisco needed it, it was gonna sort of make things nice.

但现实是，从那以后我们经历了很多次恐慌。

And the reality is we've had many panics since then.

肯定有股市崩盘。

Definitely had stock crashes.

我们也确实经历过流动性紧缩。

We've definitely had liquidity squeezes.

而且我们经历过那些大家都知道的大事件，比如1929年、2008年，还有1987年的标普崩盘，这些时刻我们都听说过，但中间还有很多小事件，比如今天白银被逼空，这些在历史上可能不会受到太多关注，但它们是美联储实际上无法控制的事情，而且确实否定了它成立的理由。

And we've had the big ones that we know about, or that we talk about the 1929 to two thousand and eight, eighty seven when the S and P crash, you have all these sort of moments, but there's so many little ones in between, like SLV squeezing silver today that you know won't get necessarily as much attention in the annals of history, but are part of the thing that the Fed actually can't control, and and really negates the idea of why it was created.

对。

Right.

对。

Right.

嗯，我想我引导你到这里，是为了引出我的最后一个问题，因为过去四个月黄金大幅下跌的部分原因，是市场认为美联储会因为通胀而加息。

Well, and I I guess where I'm kind of leading you with this is in into my final question because part of the reason gold has fallen so sharply over the last four months is this notion that the Fed's gonna be hiking rates, due to inflation.

而且，再说一遍，美联储成立是为了提供流动性，润滑整个系统。

And, again, the Fed was set up to provide liquidity to to grease the system.

但他们已经把它变成了润滑政府，对吧，每年两万亿美元的赤字。

They've kind of morphed it into greasing the government, right, at $2,000,000,000,000 a year in deficit.

但美国公众被灌输了一种观念，认为他们真正要做的是双重使命，对吧，就是鲍威尔、耶伦、伯南克他们一直说的，现在还有战争。

But the American public has been sold this kind of bill of goods that what they're really here for is this dual mandate, right, that Powell and Yellen and Bernanke and all the rest have talked about and now wars too.

最终，真正的使命是他们最初的使命，对吧，就是维持市场运转。

In the end, the real mandate is their origin original mandate, right, to keep the markets afloat.

所以如果黄金下跌是因为，哦，他要缩表，他们要加息。

And so if gold's going down because, oh, he's gonna shrink the balance sheet, they're gonna hike rates.

如果真的是他们的原始使命，那这些说法就只是空谈，只是传闻而已。

If if if it's really their original mandate, it would seem that's just all jawbone, and that's just all hearsay.

说到底，真正到了关键时刻，他们还是会坚持最初的使命，对吧？

That's there's when it comes down to brass tacks, they're going to stick to their first mandate, aren't they?

当然，如果出现银行危机，他们肯定会想办法解决。

Absolutely If there was a banking crisis, they would they would figure out a way to fix it.

而且，他们的资产负债表在短期内确实有所增长。

And there has been, again, this is short near term growth in their balance sheet.

资产负债表仍然比金融危机后的峰值高出两万亿美元。

The balance sheet is still $2,000,000,000,000 more than it was at the height of the post financial crisis.

所以，说鲍威尔或任何人要缩表，而债务在增长，偿债成本也在增长，这其实不太可能。

So the idea that Powell or anybody's like shrinking it while debts growing while the servicing is growing is kind of not a thing.

但关于黄金和这种说法之间的联系，有趣的是，我认为这关系到，因此买国债更好，因为国债有实际收益，而黄金没有。

But what's interesting about gold and the sort of narrative and this connection, I think it relates to, so therefore it's better to buy treasuries because they give you real yield and gold sort of doesn't.

我们做过一项研究，出于各种原因我回溯到了1992年，那一年中国首次决定要发展稀土产业。

We did a study about, and I went back to for various reasons, but 1992, which was when China first decided it was going to be a rare earths.

中东有石油，中国有稀土。

Middle East has oil, China has rare earths.

中国围绕这个能力进行了全面布局，如今基本上为我们的整个军队提供了所有供应。

It went about this whole capability that it's built and basically it creates all of the supplies for our entire military as a result today.

但有一条主线，就是他们第一次真正开始投资美国国债的时候。

But there was a through line that was around the first time that they started really investing in U.

美国

S.

国债。

Treasuries.

他们持有的美国国债达到了1.3万亿美元。

They got to 1,300,000,000,000 of holdings in U.

美国

S.

国债。

Treasuries.

现在他们持有6500亿美元。

Now they're at $650,000,000,000.

所以他们大幅减少了国债持有量。

So they've significantly reduced their Treasury holdings.

当然，他们也增加了黄金储备。

They've of course increased their gold holdings.

但他们离金融危机时的储备比例还差得远。

They're still nowhere near the percentage of reserves they were at during the financial crisis.

所以中国人民银行和其他央行一样，继续购买黄金，但他们的黄金储备比例仍然低于历史高点的水平。

So the People's Bank of China who does continue to buy gold, as do other central banks, are still below some of the percentages of reserves that they have been at their historical highs.

所以即使他们在减少购买国债，而世界上的国债却越来越多，要回到平衡状态，还有很多购买要做。

So there's a lot of buying still to be done just to get even while they're reducing the amount of Treasuries they're buying while there's more Treasuries in the world.

所以如果我只是基于所有这些逻辑、数字、供需、价值以及来源来投资，我不会买国债。

So if I'm investing just on the sheer logic of all of that, the numbers, the supply and demand, the value, and where it's coming from, I'm not going to buy Treasuries.

我会买黄金。

I'm going buy gold.

这完全说得通。

That's just that that just makes sense.

但另外，我们做过一项研究，如果回到1992年，就举个例子。

But the other thing is we did a study if you had had back to 1992 again, just just a point.

除了我刚才提到的中国的石油和稀土，没什么特别的。

There's no magic about except for what I just said about oil and rare earths in China.

如果你在1992年口袋里揣着100美元现金，今天它的购买力大概缩水了60%。

If you had $100 in cash in your pocket in 1992, it would be worth about 60% less today, right, in terms of purchasing power.

如果你用同样的100美元去买国债，算上各种票息和投资，这些年下来，扣除购买力因素，大概能翻一倍。

If you had used that same $100 to buy treasury bonds with all of the different coupons or investments, blah blah blah over the same years, it would be worth about two times your investment netting for purchasing power.

黄金的话，扣除购买力因素，大概能翻五倍，虽然不付利息，但光看价值就是这样。

Gold would be about five times your investment netting for purchasing power, not paying interest officially just in terms of your value.

标普500的话，扣除购买力因素，大概能翻15倍。

Five times S and P would be about 15 times again purchasing power.

如今最大的黄金开采公司，或者说一些顶尖的公司，能涨到20倍。

The top gold mining company today or some of the top would be 20 times.

而那些至今仍在运营并且发展壮大的初级矿业公司，能涨到100倍。

And junior miners who are still in business today and have grown would be 100 times.

那可真不错啊。

How about that?

我们做了很多不同的分析，你知道的，我们跑了很多不同的数据，但重点是那些初级开发公司去勘探、发现，然后被大公司注资，最终发展成更大的自己。

The specs and I did a lot of different, you know, we ran a lot of different numbers, but the specs of junior developers going out exploring, finding, getting, you know, capitalized by the larger companies, you know, becoming bigger versions of themselves.

所以如果你看看黄金和纸黄金产品实际新增供应量的分布，黄金本身仍然比很多产品更有价值，而黄金生产商和勘探商的价值更是高得多。

So if you look at the waterfall of actual new supply of gold into the market and gold and paper products, gold is still more valuable than a lot of them and the producers of gold and the explorers for gold much more so.

你可以用很多不同的方式来划分这段历史。

And you can cut that history up in many different ways.

这些是宏观的数据。

Those are some zooming out numbers.

但关键是，把黄金从地下挖出来需要时间。

But the point being that it takes time to get gold out of the ground.

找到黄金需要时间。

It takes time to find gold.

我们即将面临黄金的供应缺口，而白银已经连续六年供不应求了，这还只是按当前需求来算，还没算上新增的数据中心、电气化、国防部门的补货需求，这些都没算进去，就只是当前的需求。

We are about to be at a deficit for gold against six year running for silver for current demand, not even talking about extra data centers or electrification, resupplying defense departments, none of that, just as current demand.

美国国债基本上有40万亿美元的债务，甚至很难说清楚这些债务到底在做什么，除了那些持续增长的预算之外，它到底和什么经济效益挂钩，长期经济增长方面也说不清楚。

Treasuries are basically $40,000,000,000,000 worth of debt to United States where it's even hard to determine what that debt's actually doing, what economic benefit it's actually connected to beyond the budgets that continue to grow in terms of long term economic growth.

所以，这一切都归结到一点：创造货币其实很容易，很奇怪。

So, know, this all goes back to it's very easy to create money, oddly.

创造法定货币非常容易。

It's very easy to create fiat money.

从技术上讲，这简直是瞬间就能做到的事。

It's very, very nanosecondy technologically doable.

而这就是央行在做的事。

And that's what central banks do.

但实物资产就不行了。

But you cannot do that with physical assets.

而且你肯定不能用这种方式来满足这些资产使用价值的需求，不管是作为货币锚，就像黄金那样，黄金还有其他物理需求，它也是一种硬金属，能够做到这些，白银也一样。

And you certainly can't do that to match demand for the use value of those assets, whether it's as a monetary anchor as it is for gold, and gold also has other physical needs, that it that it also focuses on that it also is a hard metal is able to do such same with silver.

导电性方面，铜也一样，还有磁铁、永磁体、稀土、用于燃料的铀。

With conductivity, same obviously with copper with magnets, permanent magnets, rare earths, uranium for fuel.

太多了。

There's so many.

我们回到之前的话题吧。

And kind of go back to where we were.

说到这个，我的灯刚好灭了。

And with that, my light just turned off.

看来我说了关于电的什么，哦

So something I said about electric Oh

天哪。

my gosh.

就变暗了。

Just darkened.

但是，是的，关键是我们需要实实在在的东西。

But, but yes, the point we need actual things.

对，确实如此。

Yeah, for sure.

而且，华尔街可以把这些东西加杠杆，印出各种衍生品、各种ETF，还有他们能做的一切，来从实物上赚钱。

And again, they can Wall Street can lever this stuff up and print all these derivatives and all these ETFs and everything they can to make money off of the physical.

但最终，他们需要实物。

But in the end, they need the physical.

那就是我们谈过的1907年那次恐慌。

That was that panic in nineteen o seven we talked about.

你永远不知道它什么时候会再来。

You never know when that might come again.

至于美联储，我不知道。

And the fed I don't know.

诺米，我真的无法想象。

Nomi, I just can't imagine.

我们今天十四号录这期节目，沃尔斯在国会面前，然后那个众议院金融服务委员会的主席还是什么的跟他说，哎呀，你得停止纵容那些不愿做艰难抉择的政客。

We're recording this today on the fourteenth, and wars is in front of Congress, and and he's like and the head of that house financial services committee or whatever it was said, oh, you gotta stop enabling the politicians who won't make hard choices.

他们不会停下来的。

They're not gonna stop.

他们会继续，他们会继续——

They're gonna continue They're to

不会停的。

not gonna stop.

而且，你知道，那里也有问题，也会涉及通胀、消费者等等，因为如果你是国会议员，你就必须——

Also, you know, questions there, which will also touch inflation and consumers and everything because you have to, if you're a congressperson.

对。

Yeah.

都在买那个说法，就是美联储真的能对供应链做点什么。

It's all buying that narrative that the Fed can actually do something about supply chains.

没错。

Right.

没错。

Precisely.

诺米，我耽误你太久了，非常感谢你抽出时间。

Nomi, I've kept you longer, and I promise I thank you so much for sharing your time.

嘿。

Hey.

最后再说一句，大家可以去 printsites.substack.com。

Just on the way out, again, someone goes to printsites.substack.com.

他们会在那里看到什么？

What will they find there?

会看到一个落地页，你可以选择我们提供的一些免费研究资料，有不同的级别。

It'll take you to a landing page and you can make your choices to some of the complimentary material we provide in research in different tiers.

我们的创始人级别包含所有内容，还有我们的投资组合模型。

Our founders tier is the one that includes it all, as well as our portfolio model portfolios.

我们跟踪所有东西。

We track everything.

我到处跑，包括深入地下去看银矿场之类的。

I go everywhere, including deeply underground to see silver mine sites, etcetera.

这样你就能获得所有这些信息，成为一个更好的投资者。

And it just gets you access to all of that for being a better investor.

太好了。

Great.

我是说，这正是人们需要的，尤其是在这个时候。

I mean, and that's what people need, especially at a time like this.

你需要尽可能多找到公正、客观、平衡的信息。

You need as much fair, objective, balanced information as you can find.

所以，请听我的个人推荐，去 printsites.substack.com 看看诺米有什么。

And so please, my personal recommendation, go to printsites.substack.com and check out what Nomi has.

离开前，别忘了去 sprottmoney.com 看看，他们提供优质的价格、优惠以及实物贵金属的存储服务。

On your way out, don't forget to check out sprottmoney.com as a provider of great prices and deals and storage of your physical precious metal.

最后，点个赞或订阅吧，因为七月到八月还会有更多内容。

And lastly, hit that like button or subscribe button because there's more content to come as we go through July and into August.

你肯定不想错过任何内容。

You don't want to miss any of it.

如果你点赞或订阅，一旦有新内容发布，你马上就能收到通知。

If you hit that like or subscribe, you get notified as soon as something is posted.

诺米，非常感谢你抽出时间。

Nomi, thank you so much for your time.

这次访谈非常精彩。

It's been fabulous.

我很感激。

I appreciate it.

非常感谢。

Thank you so much.

来自Sprott Money全体成员，sprottmoney.com。

From all of us here at Sprott Money, sprottmoney.com.

感谢观看，请继续关注这个频道，七月份还有更多内容。

Thanks for watching, but keep an eye on this channel as the month of July continues.