Gold and Silver at a Breaking Point: Is the Next Major Rally About to Begin? | Bob Thompson

这里是斯普罗特金钱，再次向您问好。

Hello again from Sprott Money.

斯普罗特金钱网站。

Sprottmoney.com.

我们很快就要到七月底了。

We are fast approaching the end of July.

虽然今天是7月24日，但我们打算提前把这个月做个总结。

And even though it is currently July 24, we're gonna go ahead and try to wrap this month up.

我是主持人克雷格·赫姆基。

I'm your host, Craig Hemke.

今天和我一起为七月画上句号的，是埃里克·斯普罗特的老朋友——而且说实话，经过这么长时间，他也是我的老朋友了——温哥华雷蒙德·詹姆斯的鲍勃·汤普森。

And, joining me to kinda put a bow on July is Eric Sprott's old friend, and heck, after all this time, he's my old friend too, Bob Thompson of Raymond James in Vancouver.

鲍勃和埃里克认识很久了。

Bob has known Eric a long time.

他长期以来一直是斯普罗特金钱的好朋友，而且每次听听他对世界局势的看法，总是很有意思。

He's been a good friend of Sprott Money for a long time, and it's always good to see what he thinks is going on in the world.

鲍勃，很高兴见到你。

Bob, good to see you.

克雷格，也很高兴再次见到你。

Great to see you again, Craig.

你知道，我们之前聊过，我的孩子现在一个八岁一个六岁了，我记得刚开始跟你聊天的时候他们还没出生呢，所以确实有一段时间了。

And, you know, we were we were chatting before that my kids are eight and six now, and I don't think even think they were born when I started talking to you, so it's been a while.

时间过得真快，鲍勃。

Aging fast, Bob.

天哪，我还记得他们出生的时候。

Jeez, I remember when they were born.

感觉就像，哦，那不过是几年前的事，对吧？

It's like, Oh, that was just a couple of years ago, wasn't it?

是的。

Yeah.

哦，天哪。

Oh, goodness gracious.

好，就像我刚才说的，我们准备给这个月做个收尾。

Well, as I mentioned, again, we're going to wrap up the month.

这个月挺忙的。

It has been a busy month.

非常忙的一个月。

Been a very busy month.

不过也带来了不少收益。

It's brought money too.

金属板块表现还算稳定。

The metals are hanging in there.

我们开始看到一点回暖的迹象。

We started to look for a little turnaround.

我们接下来就聊聊这个。

We're gonna talk about that here.

嘿。

Hey.

现在正是逢低买入的好时机。

No better time to buy the dip than now.

再说一次，你可以去sprottmoney.com进行购买。

Again, sprottmoney.com is where you wanna do that.

那里总有很划算的交易。

Always great deals.

他们也会为你安全稳妥地保管这些金属。

They'll store it safely and securely for you too.

直接访问sprottmoney.com，去看看吧。

Just go to sprottmoney.com and, check it out.

你也可以直接给他们打电话。

You always just call them up.

号码是28888610775。

It's 28888610775.

鲍勃，这个月真是很有意思。

Bob, it has been an interesting month.

六月快结束的时候，感觉我们好像到了最鹰派的时候，大家都在说，哦，战争要加息了，通胀失控了。

As June was wrapping up, it seemed like we were getting to peak hawkishness in terms of, Oh, wars are gonna hike rates, you know, and inflation's out of control.

然后黄金跌到了大概4000美元。

And gold went down to about 4,000.

感觉我好像有点

Seemed like I kind of

操之过急了，因为七月份战争又重启了。

jumped the gun on that because the war kind of restarted here in July.

对。

Right.

利率大幅上涨了。

Rates have shot higher.

美元也走强了。

The dollar's gone higher.

虽然还有更多加息在路上，但黄金仍然保持在4000美元以上。

More rate hikes are on this hill, but gold's still above 4,000.

对。

Right.

那我们是不是终于要看到这两种金属找到底部了？

So are we in the process of finally finding a floor here for both metals?

对。

Right.

你知道吗？

You know what?

我觉得关键是要看新闻，但别太在意新闻本身，而是要看这些新闻有多少已经反映到市场里了。

I think the key is to look at the news, don't pay attention to the news, but see how much of that news is actually factored into the market.

对吧？

Right?

这才是赚钱的方法。

That's how you make money.

关键不在于新闻是好是坏，因为如果市场已经过度下跌，即使是所谓的坏消息，你也能做得很好。

It's not whether the news is good news or bad news because you can do really well on on supposed bad news if things are just overshot on the downside.

所以我觉得这才是真正重要的地方。

So I think that's that's what's really important about this.

然后，是的，我们现在就在这里。

And, yeah, here we are.

悲观情绪就是这样，这就是为什么情绪很重要，因为情绪太关键了。

Pessimism is and that's why it pays tends to sentiment a lot because sentiment is is so important.

你知道吗？

You know?

在推特上，你能看到好的情绪。

On on Twitter, you get good sentiment.

对吧？

Right?

你知道，人们说黄金要涨，你会看到一堆评论，然后你会想，好吧。

You know, people say gold's going up, you get all these comments, you're like, okay.

嗯，这里的情绪相当糟糕。

Well, sentiment's pretty bad here.

我们可能该到平衡的时候了。

We're probably due for a balance.

但我觉得，你知道，是的，我们那种自鸣得意，我觉得你说的很重要，因为显而易见的东西往往是错的。

But I I think that, you know, yeah, we peacockishness, I think, is important what you said because the obvious is obviously wrong.

对吧？

Right?

所以每当市场里，正如斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒所说，当你看到自鸣得意，而新闻看起来最糟糕的时候，那可能就是开始四处嗅探的时机。

So whenever in the markets, as Stanley Druckenmiller says, when you get peacockishness and the news seems to be the worst, that's probably the time to start sniffing around.

对吧？

Right?

我觉得我们可能已经到那个点了。

And I think we've probably reached that.

凯文·沃什想上去发言。

Kevin Worsch wanted to get up there.

他想说事情会有所不同，他会做得更好，你知道，他不会给出前瞻性指引，诸如此类的话，你知道，他们大多数人都这么说。

He wanted to talk about how things are gonna be different, how he's gonna be better, you know, how he's not gonna give forward guidance, all this sort of stuff, which, you know, most of them all say that.

唯一真正采取行动的就是沃尔克。

The only one who ever did anything about it was Volker.

对吧？

Right?

但今天他们做不到，因为债务太高了。

They which they can't do today because the debt is so high.

不过不管怎样，他发表了鹰派讲话，我觉得挺有意思的，因为过去一年半里，总统一直威胁要解雇上一位主席，因为他拒绝降息。

But anyway, he's given his he's given his hawkish speech, which I think is kind of fascinating because we've had the president for the last year and a half threatening to fire the last one because he wouldn't cut interest rates.

而现在这位要加息，大家居然都接受。

And now this one's gonna raise and everybody's okay with it.

所以我不太确定。

So I'm not sure.

总之，我们走着瞧吧。

Anyway, we'll we'll we'll see what happens there.

不过，是的，如果我们真的达到了鹰派情绪的顶峰，那意味着人们 hopefully 已经把他们在ETF和西方这里的最后一点黄金都吐出来了。

But but, yeah, if we have reached peak hawkishness, that means people hopefully have puked out their final bit of of gold in the ETFs and the and the and in the West here.

希望这能为我们奠定一个底部。

And hopefully, that's gonna set us up for a bottom.

我的意思是，我们都知道看技术指标，我们稍后会讨论这个。

I mean, we all know we look at the technicals, and we'll talk about that.

但是，你知道，3800到4000是一个重要的支撑区域，据说现在还在这个区域，白银也一样。

But, you know, that's 3,800 to 4,000 was kind of a big support zone, and supposedly it's kept that zone right now and the same with silver.

你知道吗，鲍勃，有很多这样的情绪指标。

You know, Bob, it there are a lot of these sentiment indicators.

我在X上看到关于黄金的推文，黄金看涨指标，你知道，就是那种东西。

I've seen tweets on on X about gold, the gold bullish indicator, you know, that kind of thing.

黄金的周线RSI指标已经低到了这十年里只有四次出现过的水平。

The RSI indicators for the, you know, for the weekly on gold are as low as they've been in, you know, like four times this decade.

对。

Right.

矿商的相对强弱指数已经从100跌到零好几次了。

That in strength index in the miners has gone to zero a couple of times down from a 100.

鲍勃，你知道，我们现在回头看，我们上次聊这些话题是在1月28号。

Bob, it, you know, we look back now, I mean, the last time you and I spoke on one of these deals was January 28.

对吧？

Right?

现在回头看，你会发现，1月份的时候市场可能有点过热，过于乐观了。

And you look back now and you see what's happening like, okay, maybe things got a little frothy and a little overoptimistic back in January.

现在是不是六个月过去了？

Are we now six months later?

我们回头看7月份的时候，会不会觉得当时也太悲观了？

Are we gonna be look looking back at July and going, yeah, boy, things really got overly pessimistic too.

对。

Right.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得是这样。

You know, I think so.

上次我们聊的时候，正好赶上了短期顶部。

Last time we talked, it happened to be right at the right at the short term top.

希望这次我们聊的时候，正好是短期底部。

Hopefully, this time we're talking is at the short term bottom.

对。

Yeah.

但你刚才说的很有意思，而且，你知道，我们都很高兴，因为我们的判断被验证了，银价涨了等等。

But what you say there is fascinating, and, you know, we're we're all pretty happy about, you know, that we're vindicated, silver price went up, etcetera.

但即便如此，我也不喜欢抛物线式的上涨。

But even having said that, I don't like parabolic moves.

因为那样的话，你最后得熬过抛物线的另一面，一路跌回到突破点，差不多就是我们现在的位置。

It's just because you end up having to suffer through the other side of the parabola, all the way down to where the breakout happened, which is kinda where we are right now.

但这并不意味着有人对白银持悲观态度。

Now that doesn't mean anybody's negative on silver.

我觉得我们还是会迎来一波大涨，表现会很好。

It's still gonna I think we're gonna we're gonna have a massive run here and it's gonna do well.

我更希望接下来八年每个月涨2%，每年涨25%。

I would prefer if we went up 2% a month, 25% a year for the next eight years.

但现实不会这样。

Now it's not gonna do that.

它会把人震出局。

It's gonna shake people out.

它会尽可能让过程变得艰难。

It's gonna it's gonna make it as difficult as possible.

所以我们总说，市场上人越少，赚的钱越多。

And that's why we always say, you know, the least amount of people in the market make the most amount of money.

一直都是这样，因为一路上你会被震出去，那些凑热闹的人也会被震出去。

That's always the case because you get shaken out along the way, and tourists get shaken out.

而这个行业里大多数人都是凑热闹的。

And most people in this industry are tourists.

你知道，我们以为因为你和我在社区里聊白银和黄金，所有人都知道我们在说什么，但其实不是。

You know, we think because you and I talk about silver and gold in our community that everybody knows what we're talking about, but it isn't.

这只是一小部分人。

It's a very small slice.

而且当人们进来的时候，人数非常少。

And when people come very small.

当人们进入这个行业时，他们就是游客。

And when people come into this industry, they're tourists.

我的意思是，他们进来的时候，往往是在天气最好的时候，温暖舒适，而风暴来临时他们就离开了。

And what I mean by that is they come in in, you know, when the weather is the nicest, when it's nice and warm and comfortable, and they leave when the storm hits.

对吧？

Right?

游客就是这样。

That's what tourists do.

所以基本上这个行业里进来的每个人，尤其是在市场这个阶段进来的，都是游客。

So pretty much everybody in this industry that comes in, especially at this point of the market is a is a tourist.

那这为什么重要呢？

And and and why is that important?

因为这会造成巨大的波动。

Because that creates immense volatility.

对吧？

Right?

那些游客都会在天气特别好的时候冲进来，然后在其他时候又都冲出去。

The tourists all rush in for, you know, the day when the weather is really, really nice, and then they all rush out at the at the other times.

你得意识到这一点。

And you gotta kinda be cognizant of that.

看看市场情绪，然后做出合适的决定。

Look at that sentiment and and make appropriate decisions.

对吧？

Right?

所以，永远不要在情绪高涨的时候大量买入。

So never, you know, never buy a tremendous amount during euphoria.

我的意思是，我相信我们现在处于牛市，但我更倾向于在市场再次被抛售的时候加仓。

I mean, I believe we're in a bull market here, but I prefer to just add to positions when when things are getting puked out again.

我觉得我们现在就处于那个水平。

And I think we're, you know, we're we're we're down at those levels.

你永远不可能抄到最低点。

You can never pick the bottom.

这是肯定的。

That's for sure.

但我认为我们现在正接近那个水平。

But I think we're we're getting down near those levels right now.

你知道，4000美元的黄金，如果是五年前，我们会说，天哪。

You know, 4,000 gold, if we were talking five years ago, 4,000 gold, we would've said, oh, man.

那将会非常惊人。

That's that's gonna be amazing.

你知道，几年前有多少人，我听到有人说过，如果黄金涨到5000美元会怎样？

You know, how many people how many people a few years ago, there was a quote that I heard people said, you know, what if gold goes to 5,000?

我可不想生活在黄金5000美元的环境里。

I don't want to live in a $5,000 gold environment.

这个世界会变成什么样？

What's the world going to look like?

看起来还不算太糟。

It doesn't look too bad.

对吧？

Right?

但我们现在就在这里。

But here we are.

而且我觉得随着时间的推移，价格还会涨得更高。

And I think things will go a lot higher over time.

鲍勃，就像你说的，你总是在挑那些特别好的日期什么的。

And Bob, like you said, mean, you're getting all cherry pick dates and all this kind of stuff.

但去年夏天，实际上就是现在这个时候，七月底，金属价格一直在横盘整理。

But last summer, in fact, right this time period, end of July, the metals have been going sideways

对

for

三四个月了。

three or four months.

大家都觉得，哎呀，黄金到了3400美元。

And everybody thought, Oh, gold's at 3,400.

已经到顶了。

It's topped out.

要开始跌了。

It's rolling over.

白银大概在35美元左右。

I mean, silver was like 35.

而且

And

所以，你知道，如果我们在2025年7月24日做这个节目，我说，别担心，鲍勃。

so, you know, if we'd been doing this call on 07/24/2025 and I said, oh, don't worry, Bob.

到明年，我们说的可是黄金8100美元，白银58美元。

By next year, we're talking $8,100 gold and $58 silver.

我们之前

We'd been

哇哦。

like, whoo.

你知道吗？

You know?

但更重要的是，在我们有生之年，白银两次涨到差不多48美元然后就崩了，这有多重要？

But but more importantly though, how significant is it that in our lifetime silver had run up to $48 or so twice and then just collapsed?

而且

And

但这次不一样，九个月前我们就突破了48美元，现在还在这个价位之上。

instead this time we broke through forty eight nine months ago and we're still above there.

对。

Right.

对。

Right.

我确实觉得，你知道，白银需要很长时间，而且人们一直在谈论操纵和游客进进出出。

I do think, you know, it takes a long time with silver and, you know, people have talked about manipulation and the tourists coming in and out.

但当市场很小，情绪变化很快的时候，是的，事情会变得极其极其波动。

But when something's small and you do have a lot of sentiment changes rapidly, yeah, things are gonna be extremely, extremely volatile.

但你必须退一步，看大局。

But you have to step back from that and look at the big picture.

就像你说的，我们已经突破了50美元这个水平。

And like you said, we've broken out over that $50 level.

你知道，我不认为这会发生，但如果它被推低到48或47以下，我也不会感到惊讶，只是为了考验所有人，确保把那些不是真正信徒的人都赶出去。

You know, I don't think it's gonna happen, but I wouldn't be surprised to to see it get pushed down below 48 or 47 just just to test everybody and make sure that you get everybody out that isn't a true believer.

你知道，我不是说这会发生，但我不会感到惊讶，因为再说一次，在市场上，最少的人赚最多的钱。

You know, that's a that'll I am not saying that's gonna happen, but I wouldn't be surprised because, again, the least amount of people make the most amount of money in the in in the market.

但事情会在这里好转的。

But things are gonna things are gonna turn around here.

当你遇到那种情况，你知道，我说过我不喜欢上涨的抛物线，因为你得应对下跌。

When you get that, you know, I said I don't like parabolas on the upside because you gotta kinda do the downside.

对吧？

Right?

但下跌的时候也是一样的道理。

It's the same thing though on the downside.

对吧？

Right?

当出现那种彻底抛售、大家都受不了的时候，我这么说吧。

When you get that absolute puking out, and I use that term that nobody can take it anymore.

他们必须得离场。

They've gotta get out.

那时候就会出现V型反转，对吧？

Well you get the V recovery when that happens, right?

不是U型反转，而是V型反转。

You don't get the U shaped recoveries, you get V shaped recoveries.

我不知道我们现在是不是已经到了那个顶点阶段，但我要告诉你，这就是为什么买入点在任何资产里都这么重要。

You know, I don't know if we're at that peaking stage yet, but I'll tell you when we were and this is why the buy point is so important in any asset.

不管是黄金、白银还是其他什么，都一样。

Doesn't doesn't matter if it's gold or silver or anything else.

如果你买白银的成本，比如在25美元或20美元时买入的，虽然跌了不少，但过去几年你还是翻倍了。

If your cost on silver, if you bought it when it was $25 or $20, it's come down a lot, but you're still doubled your money in the last few years.

对吧？

Right?

所以买入点非常重要。

So that buy point is so important.

对我们来说，在股票方面，我们能在SILJ上买入，最后一次那种恐慌抛售点是在2024年2月，不算太久，两年半前，SILJ交易价格略低于8美元，所以8美元，今天还是24美元。

For us, you know, on the stock side, you know, we were able to buy SILJ, the last kind of puking point for that was back in February 2024, Not too long ago, two and half years ago, SILJ traded just below $8 So $8 and still it's 24 today.

还是涨了200%。

It's still up 200%.

之前涨了差不多400%，但现在还是涨了200%。

Now it was up almost 400%, but it's still up 200%.

所以只要买入点正确，想亏钱真的非常非常难。

So it's very, very, very hard to lose money if your buy point is correct.

我们可以聊聊市场情绪，以及为什么，你知道，还有埃里克当初为什么买黄金。

We can talk about sentiment and why and, you know, and then why Eric originally bought gold.

我不知道。

I don't know.

我们之前聊过这个，但你知道，我刚才脑子里就在想这个。

We've talked about that before, but you know, I was just going through my mind on that.

埃里克最近说，你知道，他最近说，他2000年最初买黄金的原因，他说，我就是看到了金融危机要来，我想活下来。

And Eric said that recently, you know, recently he said, the reason I originally bought gold back in 2000, he said, I just saw the financial crisis coming and I wanted to survive.

不一定是为了进攻。

Didn't do it for offense necessarily.

我是为了生存。

I did it to survive.

对吧？

Right?

在金融危机中生存下来。

Survive the financial crisis.

当危机发生时，你觉得黄金会是保命的地方。

When it happened, you thought gold would be the place to survive.

仔细想想，这就是在防守。

And when you think of it, that's playing defense.

对吧？

Right?

就是在防守。

It's playing defense.

通过买黄金来保护你的资本。

That's that's protecting your capital by buying gold.

这不是进攻。

It's not playing offense.

这是防守。

It's playing defense.

这让我又想到，如果你防守得好，就不会输。

And, you know, which made me think again, you can't lose if you have a good defense.

你真的真的不会输。

You you you really can't lose.

确实是这样。

That's true.

世界杯。

World Cup.

你知道西班牙队，世界杯冠军，在世界杯上被进了多少个球吗？

Do you know how many goals that Spain, the World Cup winner, had scored against it in the World Cup?

天哪。

Gosh.

他们打了七八场比赛，所以我觉得应该不止两个。

They played seven or eight games, so more than two, I would think.

西班牙只丢了一个球。

Spain had one goal

丢了

scored

整个赛事中，对手对西班牙的进球只有一个。

against it in the entire tournament.

就一个球。

One goal.

你想想看，如果没人能对你进球，那你就不可能输。

And when you think of it, if if if nobody scores a goal on you, it's impossible for you to lose.

可能会平局，但不可能输。

You might tie, but it's impossible to lose.

对吧？

Right?

他们还有那个奇怪的点球规则，我不太确定。

They had that goofy penalty kick thing that I'm not sure.

对。

Yeah.

那就是说……

That's that's

总之，这不是重点。

Anyway, that's beside the point.

不是重点。

Beside the point.

所以这就是为什么我经常谈论防守，也经常在防守的语境下谈论黄金。

So so that's why I I talk about defense a lot, and I talk about gold in in the in the context of defense.

我觉得这一点对大家来说真的很重要，要记住。

And I think that's I think that's really important for people to remember.

对。

Mhmm.

你得活下去，要知道，即将到来的整个金融重组会带来什么。

You wanna survive, you know, what's coming about this whole financial rearrangement that's gonna happen.

而且，你知道，大家都好奇为什么巴森作为一个前对冲基金经理，现在坐在那里，做着他现在做的事情，还承受着他所承受的压力，到底是为了什么？

And, you know, everybody wonders why Basen is sitting sitting there as an ex hedge fund manager and working for whatever he's working for now and taking the heat that he's taking for for what?

嗯，因为巴塞特意识到将会有一场金融重组。

Well, because Bassett realizes that there's gonna be a financial restructuring.

他想成为那个载入史册、与之相关的人物。

He wants to be the person that goes down in history that's attached to it.

有个人确实做到了

There's a guy that did

这一点。

it.

所以那就是他的遗产。

So that's his legacy.

所以，你知道，我觉得，有什么事情要发生了，而黄金是保护自己的最好方式，不管是4000、5000，还是其他什么价位。

So, you know, I I think, you know, something's gonna something's coming up and and and the gold's the best way to protect yourself, you know, whether it's 4,000, 5,000, whatever the case is.

但这些是一些不错的入场点。

But these these are some of the good entry points.

我想问问你关于整体市场的情况，特别是美国市场，因为从某种意义上说，它是全球的风向标。

I want to ask you about just the market in general, specifically The US markets, since it's kind of the bellwether in a sense globally.

我之所以想到这个，是因为我正在读安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金写的那本关于1929年的书。

And the reason this is on my mind, I'm in the process of reading the Andrew Ross Sorkin book, 1929.

而且

And

一百年后，这里有很多相似之处，历史似乎在重演。

there's just a lot of parallels here 100 later, would seem, history rhyming a little bit.

我们现在在标普500指数大约7500点的位置，走势有点横盘，但今年仍然是上涨的。

We're kind of in this area on the S and P, up around 7,500 where we're just kinda going sideways, still up on the year.

对。

Mhmm.

你谨慎吗？

Are you cautious?

你对大盘整体怎么看？

How do you feel about the broader averages?

非常悲观，因为我不喜欢在狂热时期投资任何东西。

Very negative because I don't like to invest in times of euphoria for anything.

好的。

Okay.

就是因为你的上涨空间和下跌空间都那么大。

It's just because your upside is that much and your downside is that much.

对。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这纯粹是数学上的。

I mean, that's just it's just a mathematical.

对吧？

Right?

所以，是的，我们现在最大的持仓是，你知道，Eric在2020年成立了一个对冲基金。

So so, yeah, I mean, our biggest position right now is, you know, Eric started a hedge fund back in 2020.

抱歉。

Sorry.

抱歉。

Sorry.

2001年、2002年，他做空金融股、科技股等等，同时做多黄金股。

2001, 2002 where he shorted the financials, the technology stocks, etcetera, and and went long gold stocks.

对吧？

Right?

我们持有大量黄金股票，所以我们在某种程度上也在做类似的事情。

We have a lot of gold stocks, so we're doing that a little bit in other way.

我们的对冲基金做多价值股，你知道的，就是那些防御性股票和消费必需品，然后做空所有那些疯狂的东西。

We have hedge fund that's long value stocks, you know, all the all the defensive stocks and consumer staples and they're gut, and then short all the craziness.

对吧？

Right?

我认为这种套利会表现得非常好。那么，我们现在市场处于什么位置呢？

And I think that arbitrage is gonna do fantastically well going So so, yeah, where are we right now in the market?

大家都在试图弄清楚我们处于泡沫的哪个阶段。

Well, everybody's trying to figure out where we are in the bubble.

但我想提几件事，我觉得你刚才说的非常重要。

But I wanna mention a couple things that I think that's really important what you just said.

你知道，我们之前讨论过矿业周期。

You know, we've talked about the mining clock before.

对吧？

Right?

对。

Yeah.

而且矿业时钟是观察我们处于周期哪个阶段的好方法。

And the mining clock is a great way to see where we are in the cycle.

但实际上，矿业时钟也是观察任何市场所处阶段的好方法。

But the mining clock is also a great way to see where we are with any market, actually.

你只需要把“矿业”换成“科技”就行。

You just you you can stamp technology instead of mining on it.

矿业时钟指向10点的时候，矿业领域会出现大量IPO，那些之前一文不值的公司，现在变得非常庞大。

So what the mining clock says at 10:00 is that you get these massive IPOs in the mining sector, which companies that were worth nothing before, now they're now they're huge.

那大概就是10点的位置。

And that's around 10:00.

那标志着周期开始进入尾声。

That starts to be the end of the cycle.

嗯，我们刚刚有了SpaceX。

Well, we just got SpaceX.

对。

Yeah.

是吧？

Right?

我们还会迎来OpenAI。

We're gonna get OpenAI.

对吧？

Right?

还会有其他的。

We're gonna get others.

但矿业周期顶部还会发生另一件事，就是矿业公司用自己估值过高的股票去收购别人估值过高的股票，进行换股合并。

But here's the other thing that happens at the top of us of the mining cycle is that mining companies take their overvalued stock and they buy somebody else's overvalued stock for a stock for stock split.

对吧？

Right?

因为当你的股票被高估时，很容易把你的股票给别人。

Because when your stock is overvalued, it's very easy to give somebody your stock.

对吧？

Right?

而且别人会接受，因为他们觉得这很好。

And somebody will take it because they think it's good.

嘿。

Hey.

SpaceX刚上市后做了什么？

What did SpaceX do just after they went public?

他们收购了一家600亿美元的公司。

$60,000,000,000 company they bought.

他们用股票进行了600亿美元的收购。

$60,000,000,000 acquisition they made for stock.

我当时就想，哦，看吧。

And I was just like, oh, check.

对。

Check.

对。

Check.

这正是周期顶部会发生的事情。

This is exactly what happens at the top of the cycle.

另外，尤其是矿业板块，他们会因为对现状太有信心而在资本开支上大撒钱。

The other thing that happens to the mining sector especially is they blow their brains out on the CapEx side because they feel so comfortable with what's happening.

所以他们把多余的现金流，在市场顶部的时候，全都砸在资本开支上。

So they take their excess cash flow, they blow their brains out on the CapEx side right at the top of the market.

现在这些七大科技股，像谷歌、微软这些，以前都是现金流大户，现在却把所有的现金流都投入到资本开支上。这也许在未来十年是个好主意，就像2000年铺设光纤电缆一样，二十年后我们确实在用这些光纤，但当时那些公司全都跌到零了。

Well, what's happening right now with all these Mag seven stocks, they were they were cash flow generators, Google, Microsoft, etcetera, and now they're blowing all their their cash flow in in in building this CapEx, which might be a great idea for the next ten years, just like building fiber optic cable was a great idea in 2000 for now, because we're using that fiber optic cable twenty years later, but at the time they all went to zero.

所以，我不太喜欢做预测，但这里我要做一个大概的预测。

So here, I don't like to make, I guess, forecasts, but here's a forecast that I'll make a general one.

那就是，我认为AI会改变世界。

And that is, I think AI is gonna change the world.

但我觉得可能在未来五年内，绝大多数AI公司都会一文不值。

But I think probably in the next five years, most most, almost all of the AI companies will be worth zero.

会有少数幸存者。

There'll be a few survivors.

会有一些，然后它们会发展得很好。

There will be, and then they'll do well.

它们会做得很好。

They'll do well.

但绝大多数会变得毫无价值。

But the absolute majority will be worth nothing.

所以人们会说，这怎么可能呢？

So and people say, how can that be?

AI改变了世界，但股票并没有都涨，因为投机太多了。

AI changed the world, but but the stocks didn't do all that because there's there's too much speculation.

对。

Right.

所以我觉得我们已经到了那个阶段。

So I I think we're I think we're there.

还有一件事发生在市场顶部。

And here's another thing that happens at the top.

很高兴你提到了安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金。

And I'm glad you mentioned Andrew Ross Sorkin.

他是个好人，书也写得不错。

Great guy, great book.

1929年那本书我还没读过。

Haven't read the 1929 book.

你应该读读。

You should.

但他之前请了杰里米·格兰瑟姆上节目，他在市场里待了六十年。

But he had he had Jeremy Grantham on who has been in the market sixty years a little bit ago.

结果杰里米·格兰瑟姆被另一位主持人彻底否定、嘲笑，搞得像个傻瓜一样。

And Jeremy Grantham was absolutely discredited, lambasted, and made to feel like a fool by one of the other hosts.

马特·克南。

Matt Kernan.

对。

Right.

这种情况在顶部也会发生。

That also happens at the top.

嗯。

Mhmm.

当聪明人受到质疑的时候。

When when smart people get discredited.

沃伦·巴菲特，1999年。

Warren Buffett, 1999.

我不投资科技股。

I'm not investing in tech stocks.

我不懂那些。

I don't understand them.

它们估值太高了。

They're too overvalued.

有六到八个月的时间，人们都说沃伦·巴菲特疯了。

There was a six to eight month period where people said Warren Buffett's crazy.

他不行了。

He's lost.

他连电脑都没有。

He doesn't even have a computer.

他懂什么？

What does he know?

等等等等。

Etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.

所以我常说，价值投资者和聪明人，我们还没到那一步，人们还在听他们的。

So I I've often said that value investors and smart people, and we aren't there yet, people are still listening to them.

但质疑已经开始出现了。

But the discreditation is starting.

对吧？

Right?

他们会被打脸的。

They're gonna get discredited.

他们会看起来像傻瓜一样。

They're gonna look like fools.

他们会被那些从未在市场上投入过风险资本的人弄得看起来像傻瓜。

They're gonna be made to look like fools by people that have never put any risk capital into the market.

然后，你看，就是这样。

And, know, there you go.

这已经开始发生了。

That's starting to happen.

所以我想给你引用一句话，如果你不介意的话。

So I wanted I had a quote here for you, if that's okay.

我能读一下吗？

Can I read it?