Gold Price Could Reach $10,000/oz as Fiat Currencies and Stock Markets Break | Andrew Sleigh

大家好。

Hi everyone.

欢迎回到《Ask Andrew》播客。

And welcome back to the Ask Andrew podcast.

今天我们再次邀请到了安德鲁·斯莱。

Once again, we're joined by Andrew Sleigh.

那我们直接进入正题吧。

So why don't we dive right in?

今天我们收到了不少问题，而且问题都比较长，措辞也更详细。

We have quite a few questions here, little bit longer, longer worded as well.

安德鲁，在上一次的《Ask Andrew》节目中，你提到过白银今年表现并不算好。

So Andrew, in our previous Ask Andrew session, you mentioned that silver hadn't had a particularly good year.

有位观众留言指出，白银目前价格仍在每盎司50美元以上，跟几年前相比，这已经是相当出色的表现了。

One of our viewers commented and they pointed out that silver is still trading above $50 an ounce and that compared to just a few years ago, that's a remarkable performance.

这会不会只是视角不同而已？

Is this a matter of perspective?

你说白银今年表现不好，是指它相对于黄金的表现没达到大家预期，还是别的原因？

When you say silver hasn't had a good year, are you referring more to its performance relative to gold where it were many expected to be by now or something else?

从长期投资者的角度来看，该怎么看待白银在这种背景下的表现？

How should long term investors think about silver's performance in that context?

我指的是今年一月份那波上涨后，有很多人跟风买入，结果之后价格就回调了。

So I was only referring to the amount of people that bought in January on that move up and then it's pulled back.

从一月到现在，这年确实过得不太顺。

And so just from the January to now, it's been a struggling year.

我们所有人早在一月之前就已经持有了。

All of us have been holding prior to January.

我们大多数人现在都没亏钱。

Most of us aren't under any water.

我们虽然都在抱怨，但我的平均成本其实连40加元都不到，我都快记不清了。

We're all sitting here grumbling about it, but my average cost is, I'm not even sure, under $40 Canadian.

我关注的只是那些在一月份追高买入的人，当时价格猛涨了一波，可接下来的六个月却大幅回落。

So referencing only the amount of people that were buying in January and then we had that, you know, huge move and then, you know, the last six months have been a substantial pullback.

从这个角度看，那些年初才第一次进场的人，确实挺难受的。

And so from that perspective, it's not been fun for people that were jumping in maybe for the first time or whatever in the first part of the first month of the year.

但从长期来看，这不过是个小波动而已。

Other than that long term, it's just a blip.

明白了。

Okay.

所以你其实只关心那些最近才买进白银的人。

So you're really only referring to the people who recently got into silver.

主要是2025年底到2026年初这段时间进场的。

Really only in the late twenty twenty five or early twenty twenty six period.

是这样吗？

Is that correct?

是的。

Yeah.

我说的‘晚’，指的是12月左右。

And when I mean late, I mean like December.

是的。

Yeah.

我没仔细研究过图表，但要是真记住了的话，其实不用回溯太久——如果你是在2025年初买的，到现在可能还是赚的，或者至少不亏，你知道的。

Because I haven't studied the chart, but I mean to have it memorized, but you don't have to go back that much further when earlier in 2025, you're probably still ahead or breaking even, you know, if you bought earlier in 2025.

我最近没怎么看图表，也不记得具体数字了，只是说在崩盘前那几个月的情况。

So, just haven't looked at the chart for a while and don't know what the numbers were, but just that last couple of months before the crash.

就这些。

That's it.

明白了。

Okay.

完美。

Perfect.

长期持有，我觉得这算是问题的第二部分。

Long term holding, I think that's part B of that question.

那我对长期持有的看法，就是这样的吗？

So, my views on long term holding, was that it?

对。

Yes.

长期投资者在这种情况下该怎么看待白银的表现呢？

How should long term investors think about silver's performance in that context?

从图表上看，白银确实经历过暴涨和回撤。

Well, from a chart perspective, it certainly had skyrocketed and retracted.

回头看，这其实很正常，但当时谁也想不到会这样。

In hindsight, it's par for the course, but most of us don't know that going in.

过去六个月，白银一直在震荡整理，经历了一轮洗盘，形成了新的底部，为下一波上涨做准备。

For the last six months, it's been an accumulation phase where it's had this washout to form a base from where to move to the next level.

如果我们看过去几年，不管用加元还是美元计价，现在的白银价格都值得高兴。

So, if we look at the last few years, we would have been celebrating the current price of silver, whether in Canadian or American dollars.

我们会说，这表现真不错。

We'd be like, Yeah, this is great.

然后价格一路冲高，接着回调到大约90加元，再折算成美元大概是70左右，可几年前，我们看到这个价位还会觉得特别开心。

Then we had this big run up and then we have a pullback to, you know, what is it, $90, roughly Canadian and then whatever the spot price is 60, whatever that is in say $70 US for a coin, we'd be celebrating that a couple years ago.

现在它正在这里盘整，为接下来的上涨奠定基础。

And now this is where it's consolidating to be the base of which we're to move from here onward.

我们只需要等这次回调结束，价格就会重新向上走。

And we just have to get this this washout finished, and then we'll start moving upward again.

从这个位置启动，前景非常令人期待。

And moving from this position is pretty exciting.

我们之前为这个价位高兴，现在则要从这里开始向上突破。

You know, we've been celebrating this position, but now we're gonna be moving from this position upward.

接下来这一年，情况会非常有意思。

So that's gonna be super interesting the next next over the next year.

作为长期白银投资者，我说不上一切完美，毕竟像你提到的，回调难免让人有点失落，但投资实物白银的积极因素依然很多。

So you would say as a long term silver investor, it's everything's still I wouldn't say all good because again, as you mentioned, there's a little bit of sour grapes with the pullback, but everything's still there's still a lot of positives in investing in physical precious silver.

这么说对吗？

Is that correct?

没错。

Oh yeah.

我觉得很难找到比这更好的选择了，因为我一向不看好法币金融工具，毕竟它们正面临美元崩溃、银行体系出问题这些风险。

I don't think there's I think it's a very hard spot to beat in my perspective because I also remember I'm not a fan of the fiat based financial instruments because they're under the challenge of the dollars collapse and a banking collapse and all that kind of stuff.

等将来真出了事，手里全是这些纸资产的人肯定要大亏，但那些一直囤实物金属的人却一点都不会亏。

So, whenever that occurs down the road, people that hold all that will have major haircuts, but people that have been stacking metal will have no haircut.

他们手里的金条银条一分都没少。

They have all their ounces.

在当前这个货币体系即将终结的阶段，很难再找到比黄金和白银更好的长期投资了，尤其是白银。

Don't think there's It's a very hard pressed situation to have a better long term investment right now as we go into these end of currency cycles than gold and silver, silver particularly.

明白了。

All right.

接下来换个话题，更多是关于黄金的问题。

Moving on here, more so a gold centered question.

上周交易者曾测试跌破四千美元的价位，但这个新低点没站住，很快就被技术性反弹拉了回来。

Traders tested a settlement below $4,000 announced last week, but the new level didn't hold, triggering a technical bounce.

投资者仍在密切关注中东局势和经济前景，以此判断下一步走势。

Investors continued to watch the situation in The Middle East and the economic outlook for cues on direction.

伊朗战争结束之后，黄金自二月下旬开启的多年牛市就告一段落了。

The the Iran war ended a multiyear bull run for gold after it began in late February.

如果冲突继续升级，你觉得黄金会怎么走？如果局势缓和了，黄金又会如何？

How do you see gold positioning itself if the conflict can if the conflict continues to escalate and how do you see gold positioning itself should tension settle?

这个我可不敢说全都能回答。

Well, I don't know if I can answer all that.

首先，我觉得这并没有终结牛市。

So, A, I don't think it's ended the bull market.

对于这种持续多年的牛市来说，中间出现一些回调是很正常的，这其实是任何资产走势中健康的一部分。

When you're talking about a large multi year bull market, there are periods where you have these pullbacks and that's part of the healthy chart of anything really.

未来几年，分析师们都在预测黄金今年、明年会涨到什么价位，哪怕要花三年时间才到一万美金，他们也照样这么说。

So, if we're looking at in the course of the next few years, there's the analysts that have lined up to say that gold will be X amount of dollars this year, next year, and so on and so on, even if it takes three years to get to 10,000 US.

从我们现在的位置算起，要是涨到两倍半，这怎么还能说不是牛市呢？

I mean, how is that not still in a bull market when that goes two and a half times from where we are?

我觉得这不过是金融体系在转型过程中必经的一个阶段罢了。

So I think this is just a part of the game of the financial system that's transitioning.

美元现在真的岌岌可危，而且还会继续恶化，所有无法用黄金支撑的货币，最终都会变得一文不值。

The US dollar is in real trouble and will continue to be in real trouble and every currency on the planet that cannot back its currency with gold will go to nothing.

所以我把它看作纯粹的防御性工具——除了黄金和白银，你还能持有啥呢？

And so, I look at it as a purely defensive tool that what else do you hold besides gold and silver?

现金会变得毫无价值，所有以现金计价的资产也都会失去意义。

Cash will be worth nothing and instruments that are in cash will be worth nothing.

这方面肯定会遇到巨大的麻烦。

There'll be real challenges on all that.

所以我把它当作一种能让你损失最小的配置。

So I look at it as a as a position to you lose the least.

当这一切都开始崩塌的时候，你至少还握着黄金和白银。

You still have gold and silver when all this stuff starts to to fade away.

所以回到那个人的问题，我依然看好黄金。

So coming back to the guy's question, I still see gold.

前几天我听到有人讨论，说今年年底黄金价格可能涨到八千美元现货。

I saw somebody the other day talk about an argument for gold to be 8,000 by the end of this year in US spot.

这说法非常有说服力。

And it was very credible.

我没法复述他的话，当时情况太乱了，事情太多。

I can't repeat what he said because it was just kind of like had too many things on the go at the moment.

但关于重估黄金的数字，美国那边一直在传。

But lots of numbers been thrown around, revaluing the gold is still being kicked around in The US.

这种传闻你经常能听到。

You hear rumors of it.

加上战争，这场冲突不会停。

So gold with the war, the war is not gonna stop.

就算战争结束了，伊朗这边的冲突也不会在几年内平息。

So, as far as if the war gets settled, the war is not gonna happen, it's not going to stop for years in Iran.

就算下个月就能达成和平协议，这也不可能发生。

So as far as if the war was stopped and settled in peace next month, that's not going to happen.

到目前为止，这场冲突里已经有过多少次和平谈判了？

How many peace deals have they had so far in the conflict?

不止几十次，根本就没有过任何实质谈判。

Like More than dozens, and there was never any negotiations.

全是假的。

It's all fake.

所以这场战争现在要升级为在伊朗的地面战，这会是个长期难题。

So, this war is now gonna go into a ground war in Iran, and that's gonna be a long term problem.

他们正在疯狂花钱，制造巨额债务。

So they're spending money creating debt like crazy on this.

那这对黄金和白银会有什么影响？

And so what does that have the effect of on gold and silver?

最终他们别无选择，只能做出反应。

No choice but for eventually they'll react.

也就是说，价格会上涨。

That means going up.

没错。

Exactly.

不，就是这样。

No, exactly.

你这么一说，确实很难反驳，说实话。

Well, when you put it like that, it's a difficult argument to argue against for lack of a better term.

好的。

Alright.

我们来看看还有什么别的。

Let's see what else we have here.

明白了。

Okay.

根据CME美联储观察工具的数据，超过73%的投资者预计下周美联储会议将维持利率不变，而超过71%的人认为九月会加息。

So over 70 per over 73% of investors tracked by the CME Fed watch tool are betting on interest rates staying unchanged at the next Fed policy meeting next week, while over 71% see a hike rate in September.

你觉得从现在到九月之间，会有什么变化促使利率调整呢？

What do you think will change from now until September that prompts a rate change?

我平时不太研究这个，但我还是想说说我的看法。

Well, I don't study that too much, but I'm going to give you my opinion on it.

我认为他们会维持利率不变，直到他们想抓住市场转向的时机，这是我的看法。

I think they're going to hold rates until they're trying to time a market rolling over in my opinion.

我觉得这种情况会在九月，或者十月初发生。

And I think that's gonna happen in September, late September or very early October.

所以大概就在那一个月，五周左右的时间范围内。

So it's somewhere in that month, five weeks area.

如果市场提前转向，快于他们的预期，他们就会降息。

So if the market's gonna roll over sooner than they want, they'll cut rates.

如果市场按他们预期的节奏走，他们就会继续维持利率不变。

If the market is on schedule for where they think they want, they're gonna hold rates.

一旦市场真的出现大幅回调，他们就会开始降息。

And when the market rolls over and really has a sharp correction, they'll be cutting rates.

明白了。

Okay.

但如果市场进展慢于他们的预期，他们反而会加息，加速市场的崩盘。

Now, if the market is not on schedule as to what they want, then they will raise rates to speed up the acceleration of the collapse of the market.

所以如果他们没按计划来，可能会加息，比如上调四分之一个百分点。

So that could be, if they're not on schedule, they go up, maybe they raise a quarter point.

我觉得他们还是会按兵不动，因为现在市场已经挺顺利地往灾难方向走了。

I think they're just gonna hold it because things seem to be on a disaster path quite nicely as it is now.

关键还是看他们希望市场什么时候开始反转。

So And it depends on when they want to have the market roll over.

一旦真的反转了，他们就只能大幅降息，几乎降到零。

And when it does, they'll have no choice but to cut rates dramatically down towards zero.

那时候，黄金和白银的价格就会暴涨。

And then that will make gold and silver explode.

所以为了确认一下，你是觉得九月份利率会保持不变？

So just to clarify here, you're even thinking that the rates in September are going to stay the same.

是这个意思吗？

Is that correct?

这还是要看他们觉得市场崩溃会在什么时候发生。

Well, again, it's based on what they feel their date timeline of the market, having a collapse occurs.

我不清楚他们打算什么时候行动，我只是在看迹象，如果按计划走，他们会保持利率不变。

I don't know when they plan to do that, so I'm just reading the tea leaves and I'm just saying if they're on schedule, they'll keep it the same.

如果落后了，他们就加息；如果提前了，就降息。

They'll raise if they're behind schedule and ahead of schedule, they'll drop.

再往后我就说不准了，毕竟我也不清楚他们具体的时间表。

I can't say beyond that because I don't really know what their schedule is.

明白了。

Perfect.

看来我们还有时间再问一个问题。

It looks like we do have time for one more question here.

黄金和白银现在的价格远高于几年前，很多投资者都在纠结，是该获利了结，还是继续持有。

With gold and silver both trading well above where they were just a few years ago, many investors are wondering whether it's time to take some profits or continue holding.

你什么时候会考虑卖出实物贵金属，如果有的话？

How do you decide when to sell physical precious metals, if ever?

有没有什么价格水平或市场状况，会让你考虑减仓？

Is there a price or market condition that would make you reduce your position?

还是你更关注长期的基本面？

Or are you focused on more on the long term fundamentals?

长期基本面才是我最看重的。

Long term fundamentals is my top priority on this.

所以不建议任何人轻易获利了结，当然也不是说绝对不能。

So nobody should be taking well, shouldn't say nobody.

如果你真想获利了结，那些打算这么做的人应该通过纸黄金纸白银操作。

So if you're looking to take profit, people who are doing that should be doing it in paper trades.

这样更高效。

That's more efficient.

如果你手里有实物，事后回头看确实容易这么做。

If you're doing it and you have physical, it's easy to do that in hindsight.

比如回头看看一月份，谁都可以说：‘我该在1月29日卖的，那天之后价格就开始跌了，现在再买回来，肯定大赚一笔。’

So for example, if you go back and look at January, anybody can go back and say, should have sold on January 29 because it started falling after that and then I could have rebought now and made a killing.

没错，理论上是能这么干。

Well, yes, you could.

任何人都能做到这一点。

And anyone can do that.

但如果你在1月30日大跌前两周就卖了，当时白银价格是150加元，你觉得自己赚翻了，结果接下来两周看着它涨到170。

But when you're if you sold two weeks prior to the January 30 drop and let's just say silver was trading at 150 Canadian and you're like, Hey, I made out like a bandit, and for the next two weeks you watched it go to 170.

那现在你怎么办？

Now what do you do?

反向操作谁都会。

Anybody can reverse trade.

是的，这话没错。

Yeah, that is fair.

好吧。

Okay.

如果价格继续涨，没人能确定到底会涨到多少，比如涨到200加元，再涨到2.50美元，而你却在150就卖了，那你到底干了什么？

So then if it kept going and nobody knows for sure, like if they kept going to 200 Canadian and then $2.50 and you sold at 150, what have you done?

对吧？

Right?

这等于给自己制造了一场灾难。

Like it's created a disaster for yourself.

所以对于那些一直在囤积的人，最好的做法就是继续囤下去。

And so all you can really do for people that are stacking is continue to stack.

至于我未来可能做的交易，如果你有黄金，而金银比现在还很高——差不多是70比1。

And the only trades that I would make down the road is if you have gold and while the ratio is high, I think it's almost 70 to one right now for gold to silver.

最近几天白银涨得太多，这个比例可能已经降下来了，我没去操作。

I haven't done it after the last few days with silver moving up so much, so it could be less.

但如果你真想动一动，可以卖一点黄金去买白银，因为比价还是偏高；等将来比价回调的时候——不管几年后——再把白银卖了换回黄金，到时候你拿回的黄金可能是原来的两倍、三倍，甚至四倍。

But if you're looking to do anything, sell a little bit of gold to buy silver because the ratio is still high, and then later when the ratio reverses, whenever that is, a few years or whatever, then you can sell silver and go back to gold and get twice your gold or three times your gold or four.

至于获利了结，我从不认同这种做法：你把利润换回法币，而那东西根本一文不值。

But as far as taking profit is concerned, this is the thing that's I don't subscribe to it, is you're taking profit to go back into the currency, which is worth nothing.

我完全想不通为什么要这么做。

That I never wrap my head around.

就算你打算再投资，那也纯属运气好。

Even if it is maybe to reinvest, but then you're lucky.

一月份的时候，我见过一两个客户，他们卖了之后，过了两周又买回来了，我觉得这纯属运气好。

So I've had I saw one or two clients during the January that sold and then two weeks later happened to buy again and I said that was a very lucky trade.

他们确实赚到了，但大多数人可没这么幸运。

You know, they did very well with that, but most people, you know, would be not in that category.

所以，出手实物黄金其实更难一些。

And so it's it's more challenging to sell the physical.

如果你把它存在金库，或者做纸黄金交易，那就简单多了。

It's easy if you have it in storage or it's it's easy if you do paper trades.

做纸黄金交易的话，如果不是在免税账户里，很可能要缴税。

Do paper trades, you're gonna be probably hit with taxes if it's not in a TFSA.

别因为担心以后买不回来就急着卖。

So, don't sell because I'm worried about is it available when I wanna buy it back.

明白了。

Okay.

万一哪天整个系统突然崩溃了——这事儿我们早就预料到了——但我买金属是为了保值，顺便还能赚钱，它的价值一直在涨，我完全不担心。

And if anything happens, like if all of a sudden tomorrow the whole system breaks, which we've all been anticipating for quite some time, but I'm buying metal to preserve wealth, and along the way I'm making money on it, like it's growing in value, and I have no concerns.

所以我才选金属。

That's why I'm in metal.

那些在去年十二月和一月第一次进场的人，买的时候价格已经很高了。

And so those that bought in December, January for the first time were at elevated levels.

现在正是摊低成本、继续买入的好时机，毕竟现在的股市，尤其是科技股、AI概念股，估值高得离谱。

This is the time to average down and continue on, you know, buying in because the alternative the stock market right now is overvalued by ridiculous amounts.

大多数股票，特别是FAANG这类科技股，市盈率都高得吓人。

The PE ratio is on the majority of stocks, certainly in the FAANG stocks, tech stocks, AI bubble stock.

有些甚至达到了一千倍的市盈率。

They're like a thousand to PE ratio.

五百倍也不稀奇。

500.

没错。

Yeah.

这些市盈率简直高得离谱。

Those PE ratios are so stratospheric.

那儿除了等着爆发的危机，啥都没有。

There's nothing there but disaster waiting to happen.

所以我从不卖金属，真要卖的话，也只会在手头紧、没收入的时候才出手。

So, I don't sell metal, and when I do, it'll be only when I need to pay bills, and if I don't have an income.

明白了。

All right.

你刚才说得已经很清楚了。

Well, you've summed it up pretty clearly there.

既然这样，安德鲁，今天我们的提问就到这里了。

With that being said, Andrew, it looks like that's all the questions we have today.

再次感谢你参与我们的对话。

Once again, I thank you for joining us.

谢谢你为我们和观众带来这么深入的分享。

Thank you for educating myself and our viewers here.

大家怎么才能最好地联系到你呢？

How was the best way to reach you?

谢谢，凯伦。

Thanks Kellen.

你可以拨打免费电话 806075。

So you can call the toll free number 806075.

我的分机是 230。

My extension is 230.

你也可以发邮件到 deathofthedollarspropmoney dot com。

You can also email deathofthedollarspropmoney dot com.

我会尽快回复你。

And I'll do my best to get back to you as soon as I can.

太好了。

Beautiful.

安德鲁，感谢你参与我们的节目。

Andrew, thank you for joining us.

大家祝你有美好的一天。

Have a good day, guys.

你也是。

Likewise.

干杯。

Cheers.

再见了。

Bye bye now.