黄金重估、白银供应危机与即将到来的美元崩溃 | 安德鲁·斯莱

大家好，欢迎回到Ask Andrew播客。

Hello, everyone, and welcome back to the Ask Andrew Podcast.

我……

I...

我叫Kellen Ainey。

My name is Kellen Ainey.

欢迎回来，Andrew Sleigh。

Welcome back Andrew Sleigh.

在开始今天的内容之前，我们想提一下我们即将参加的两个展会。

Before we get started today, we wanted to mention two shows that we're gonna be attending.

第一个是多伦多钱币博览会，时间是10月23日和24日，地点在多伦多参考图书馆。

First is the Toronto Coin Expo and that is on October 23 and October 24 at the Toronto reference library.

欢迎光临10号桌，选购我们的黄金、白银和铂金产品，既有投资金属，也有收藏币。

Stop by Table 10 to shop our selection of gold, silver, and platinum, both investment metals as well as collectible coins.

另外，我们还会参加新奥尔良投资会议，时间是10月29日到31日，地点在新奥尔良河畔希尔顿酒店。

Additionally, we will be joining the New Orleans investment conference and that's going to be taking place on October twenty ninth to thirty first at the Hilton, New Orleans Riverside.

欢迎回来。

Welcome back,

凯伦，很高兴回来。

Great to be back, Kellen.

非常感谢。

Thank you very much.

别客气。

No worries.

真的不用客气。

No worries at all.

看起来我们这里有不少问题。

Looks like we have quite a few questions here.

那我们直接开始吧。

So why don't we dive right in?

好的。

All right.

好，尽管问吧。

Shoot, fire away.

好的。

All right.

那么安德鲁，我们的一位观众持有实物黄金和白银，同时通过券商账户持有大量矿业股票。

So Andrew, one of our viewers owns physical gold and silver along with a significant amount of mining stocks held through a brokerage account.

除了贵金属和矿业股票，他们没有其他投资。

They have no other investments outside of precious metals and mining stocks.

你对这种策略有什么看法？他们应该考虑哪些风险？

What are your thoughts on this strategy and what risks should they consider?

这个问题问得挺好的。

That's a pretty good question.

嗯，在我看来，当然这不是投资建议，但如果你……

Well, in my opinion, not investment advice, of course, but if you...

我应该让你参考一下大卫·韦伯关于矿业股票的精彩论述。

I should refer you to, you know, the great taking by David Webb with the mining stocks.

所以，除非客户手里持有实物股票，否则他们对公司没有所有权。

So unless the client has this physical shares in their possession, they don't have a claim on the company.

也就是说，经纪公司才对该公司有所有权。

So, the brokerage has the claim against the company.

所以，在“大夺取”事件发生时，那个人可能什么都不会剩下，那些资产就不再属于他们了。

So, during the great taking event, whenever that occurs, that individual may not have anything that remains to be their property.

他们可能不再拥有那些股票了。

They may not have the shares anymore.

所以，到那时，他们手里剩下的可能就只有实物金属了。

So, physical metal will be all that they wind up having left in that event.

所以，我不会把超过你愿意承担风险的钱投入到实物股票，抱歉，是矿业股票上。

So, I wouldn't put more into physical shares of, sorry, mining stocks than you are willing to risk.

这些股票有很高的杠杆潜力，但记住，斯普罗特只把他5%的资产放在矿业股票上。

They have lots of leverage potential, but remember, you know, Sprott, he only has 5% of his holdings in mining shares.

其余95%的资产都是实物金属。

Everything else, which is 95% is in physical metal.

所以我总是提到那个公式，那就是他做的事情。

So, I always refer to that equation that that's what he does.

而且不要让自己在股票上过度杠杆化。

And, you know, don't have yourself over leveraged in shares of anything.

好的。

Alright.

现在继续聊矿业股票，既然燃料和电力占了矿业运营支出的很大一部分，那么当前的油价在多大程度上推高了主要金矿和银矿企业的全维持成本？

Now sticking on the mining stocks, given that fuel and power account for a massive portion of mining operational expenditures, how significantly are current oil prices inflating the all in sustaining costs for major gold and silver miners?

这种成本压力会不会为实物金条设定更高的价格底线？

And does this cost squeeze create a higher price floor for physical bullion?

嗯，这是个好问题。

Well, that's a good question.

迟早，我相信会有一些影响。

Sooner or later, I'm sure we'll have some impact.

我觉得更大的影响不在于价格本身。

I think the bigger impact is not gonna be the pricing.

我觉得影响在于没有柴油。

I think the impact will be there's no diesel.

所以，现在很多国家都面临柴油短缺的问题。

So, countries right now are very much challenged with having diesel in the countries at all.

意大利南部已经没油了。

You know, Southern Italy has already run out of gas.

法国有600个加油站缺油。

You know, France, 600 gas stations are owed of fuel.

完全没有。

None.

而且有25%到50%的加油站至少缺一种燃料。

And 25 to 50% are owed of at least one type of fuel.

所以，如果你在某个矿场工作，柴油成本上涨50%，以现在的金属价格，你仍然能赚很多钱。

So, if you're a mine somewhere and your cost goes up by 50% on diesel, the price of metals right now, you're still able to make a ton of money on that.

所以，我还没看到有人因为柴油成本而减产，但我确实看到一些报告说，某些矿场因为无法获得柴油或供应不稳定而关闭，而且更重要的是，他们连硫酸都买不到。

So, I haven't seen anyone curb their mining yet because of diesel costs, but I have seen reports that mine, certain mines have shut down because they can't get diesel or it's a challenge or it's intermittent, and then also more importantly, they haven't been able to get sulfuric acid.

好的。

Okay.

而这都是因为海湾那边出了问题。

And that's as a result of problems with The Gulf.

所以，现在有个……

And so, there's a...

我前两天刚看到，有个铜矿因为拿不到硫酸而停产了。

I just saw this the other day, there's a copper mine that shut down because it can't get sulfuric acid.

所以，这在其他地方也会产生影响，因为矿业是硫酸的大用户，而且从矿石中提取银的过程中也需要用到硫酸。

And so, that comes into play everywhere else, you know, mining is a big consumer of sulfuric acid and it's part of the process for getting silver out of the ore.

所以，如果你是个矿主，拿不到硫酸，就根本没法从矿石里提取银。

So, if you can't get sulfuric acid and you're the miner, you can't extract the silver out of the ore at all.

那你就完了。

So, you're done.

只能停产，直到能拿到硫酸为止。

You're gonna just have to shut down until you can get sulfuric.

所以，供应链的问题和那些压力开始在世界各地显现出来了，但还没有成为主流话题。

So, the supply chain and lack of and all those pressures are starting to be felt out there around the world, but it's not been mainstream yet.

我前几天碰巧看到了那篇文章。

I just happened to catch that article by accident a few days ago.

说实话，我还真是第一次听说这件事。

No, well, to be quite frank, this is the first I'm hearing of it actually.

那这可是独家消息了。

Well, breaking here.

在咱们这个播客里爆点独家新闻也没什么不好，对吧？

Well, nothing wrong with breaking a little news on this podcast, right?

好的。

All right.

那咱们换个话题吧。

So, k, shifting gears here.

有位观众质疑，传统的供需原则是否仍然适用于黄金和白银。

One of our viewers is questioning whether the traditional supply and demand principle still applies to gold and silver.

如果购买需求大幅增加，为什么价格没有相应上涨呢？

If buying demand is increasing significantly, why aren't prices rising accordingly?

哪些因素可以解释这种脱节现象？

What factors could explain this disconnect?

嗯，我觉得这里面还是有操纵的。

Well, I think the manipulation is intact there.

银行在努力摆脱他们的空头头寸。

The banks are trying to get over their short positions.

在零售层面，你知道，生意一直有点冷清。

On the retail level, business as you know has been sort of off slow.

大众都很安静。

The masses are quiet.

有一些个人在购买相当规模的订单，他们算是新手。

There are individuals that are procuring decent size orders that are kind of new into the game.

但要说电话响个不停，那倒是很安静。

But as far as the phone ringing off the hook, that's pretty quiet.

这种情况在整个北美都在发生。

And that's going on all over North America.

在机构层面，那些受益于低价格的国家和机构，他们正在大量购买白银和黄金，而且他们想尽量少付钱。

On the institutional side, which benefit from low pricing and the countries which benefit from low pricing, they're buying silver and gold hand over fist and they want to pay as little as possible.

所以他们施加压力，让价格保持低位。

So, they put pressure on keeping it down.

他们怎么能一边压低价格，一边又大量买入实物，而价格还能保持低位，这在我看来简直是世界第九大奇迹。

How they can do that and yet buy up so much of it physically and have the price still stay low is a ninth wonder of the world, I think, in my opinion.

我也不太确定。

I'm not sure.

这超出了我的职责范围，但这就是世界各地正在发生的事情：实物和机构层面的购买量飙升，而零售层面，你和我接电话，人们打电话来说，嘿，我听说金融系统有问题。

It's out of my pay grade, but that's what's happening around the world is that physical, institutional side is going off a chart, and the retail level, you you and me answering the phone and having people just call in, Hey, I understand there's a problem with the financial system.

我该怎么办？

What do I do?

这类事情，非常少。

Those kinds of things, that's very quiet.

现在大家都被吸引去关注黄金和白银以外的东西了。

Everyone has been lulled into looking at other things other than gold and silver right now.

好吧，希望这回答了你的问题。

Well, I hope that answers the question.

说实话，我觉得这个回答已经非常充分了。

I think that was quite a sufficient answer to be honest.

那我们来看看这里的一个问题。

So let's look at one of the questions here.

这个问题是关于特斯拉和SpaceX可能合并的。

Talking actually about the Tesla and SpaceX potential merger.

如果特斯拉和SpaceX整合业务，大规模扩大电动汽车、太阳能、卫星和航空航天硬件的生产，这种加速的工业消费将如何影响未来三到五年全球实物白银的短缺，以及白银的市场价格？

If Tesla and SpaceX consolidate operations to expand EV, solar, satellite, and aerospace hardware manufacturing at scale, how will this accelerated industrial consumption impact the existing global physical silver deficit over the next three to five years and furthermore, silver's market price?

这个问题问得真够复杂的。

That's quite a loaded question there.

天哪。

My goodness.

这个问题一般超出了大多数人的真正理解和实际影响范围。

I mean, that's a question that generally is well over most people's real understanding and real ramifications.

我就说说我自己的看法吧。

I'm just going to take my opinion on that one.

所以，不管SpaceX和特斯拉合不合并，它们还是在生产它们该生产的东西。

So, whether or not you have SpaceX, Tesla merge or not, they're still producing what they produce.

你看三星，他们新的固态电池，对银的需求会非常大。

You have Samsung and, you know, with their new battery, solid state battery, that's gonna have a huge demand on silver.

而且不管经济怎么放缓，全球军事冲突在增加，所以经济上放缓的部分，比如特斯拉的产量、太阳能板的产量，在我看来都会被军事生产大量弥补。

And regardless of slowdown of the economies, you have, you know, military conflict rising around the world, and so whatever slows down in the economic sense, production of Teslas, production of solar panels, whatever, in my opinion will be made up in spades with military production.

所以，我并不太担心全球经济衰退会影响银价。

And so, I'm not that concerned about a worldwide recession having an impact on silver pricing.

确实可能会有影响，但那是暂时的，因为金属还是会卖给军工机器，而且就像石油一样，到处都需要它。

It very well could, but it'll be temporary because the metal's still gonna sell to the war machine and it's still needed in everything just like oil.

如果商业需求稍微减少一点，我觉得军事那边，也就是商业和投资方面，需求会上升。

And if a slight demand if demand lessens a bit on the commercial side, I think from the military side, which is commercial, the investment side will rise.

而且矿山的产量每年都在减少。

And there's also the production coming out of mines is less every year than it has been.

比如说，在墨西哥，我不记得矿的名字了，但大约十年前有一座矿的产量相当于今天四座矿的产量。

So, for example, in Mexico, I don't remember the names of the mines, but there was one mine roughly ten years ago that was producing the equivalent of four mines today.

哇。

Wow.

所以，那一座矿特别大，具体数字我不记得了，但你明白大概意思就行。

So, one particular mine was very large and I don't remember the exact numbers, but you'll get the gist of it.

比如说，它当时产出了墨西哥年银产量的20%，现在只产10%。

It was producing, let's say, 20% of Mexico's annual silver production to make a number up, and now it's producing 10.

另外三座矿都合并到了同一家公司旗下，现在四座矿加起来勉强达到十年前那一座矿的产量。

There's three other mines that have been all merged under the same umbrella corporate company and all four of them together are now barely making what the one mine did ten years ago.

那这是因为矿里的银变少了，还是更多是因为监管的原因？

Now, is that just due to the fact that there's less silver in the mine or is it more so regulation?

他们实际上已经把大部分银都挖出来了。

They've actually pulled majority of it out of the ground.

好的。

Okay.

矿脉越来越少，开采难度越来越大，情况就是这样。

It's getting harder and harder to get to the less and less veins and so that's going on.

如果投资者们突然觉醒，开始大量涌入白银和黄金市场，那现有的供应量根本不够分。

If the investor ever wakes up in the masses and starts coming after silver and gold, I mean, there's not even nearly enough to go around.

所以，未来某个时候需求会被点燃，人们最好在那之前就已经持有金属。

So, that demand will ignite at some point down the road and people should ideally already be in metal by the time that happens.

我们不知道那会是什么时候。

We don't know when that will happen.

可能很快，比如看看上周发生的事。

It can be, Well, look what's going on last week.

突然之间，四十八小时内，整个欧洲和其他国家就陷入了全球性的混乱，一夜之间就发生了。

All of a sudden in forty eight hours, there's worldwide chaos all over Europe and other countries that are just overnight.

这些事情都发生得非常非常快。

You know, like these things all happen very, very quickly.

所以，同样的事情也可能发生，突然出现某种消息，点燃公众对黄金和白银的追捧。

And so, same thing can happen with all of a sudden there's some kind of news that ignites the public to go after gold and silver.

在我看来，到那时候，你应该已经持有这些金属了。

Well, in my opinion, you should already be a holder by the time that happens.

好的。

Okay.

明白。

Alright.

看来我们其实已经很快地回答了很多问题。

So looks like we've been actually answering a lot of these questions quite quickly here.

美国国债接近40万亿美元，这对美元和贵金属的长期影响会是什么？

With The US national debt approaching 40,000,000,000,000, what could the long term implications be for the US dollar in precious metals?

哦，这个问题问得好……

Oh, that's a good...

这个问题非常及时，因为我可以告诉你，就在上周，朱迪·谢尔顿刚刚被任命到美国政府任职。

That's a very timely question because now I can say that, you know, recently just announced in the last week, Judy Shelton was just added to the US government.

我不确定她是不是在财政部任职，还是别的什么职位，我记不清了，但朱迪·谢尔顿的背景是黄金支持货币方面的专家。

I don't know if she's in a treasury position or what, I don't recall, but Judy Shelton's background is expertise in gold backed currencies.

所以，把她招进来是个大新闻，而且他们为什么要费心把她招进来呢，除非他们打算探索用黄金来支持美国货币，或者他们未来使用的任何货币。

So, this is big news with bringing her on board, and why would they even bother bringing her on board unless they plan on exploring, you know, trying to back The US currency with gold or whatever future currency they use.

现在关于黄金重估的讨论也越来越多，这当然意味着美元贬值。

And there's more talk now with revaluing gold, which is of course devaluing the dollar.

所以，我们得看看结果如何，但如果他们在接下来的几个月或一年里采取类似行动，不管是什么，我不知道，但当他们……

So, we're going to see where that lands, but if they do anything like that in the coming months or year, whatever it is, don't know, but when they...

我们就随便挑一天吧。

Let's just pick a day.

比如说，周一他们宣布黄金重估，不管涨到多少，你肯定希望自己已经是持有者了。

Let's say on Monday they revalue gold up whatever number, you'd already want to be a holder.

对。

Yep.

明白了吗？

Okay?

而且因为我们不知道这一切什么时候会变，趁黄金和白银还有这么大的压力时，多囤一些总是好的。

And because we don't know when this all can change, it's just good to accumulate while we have such pressure on gold and silver.

黄金和白银下跌我不会难过，我反而感谢那些让价格跌下来的人，这样我就能以更便宜的价格买更多。

I don't get upset by gold and silver being down, I just thank the powers that be to bring it down so I can buy more at a cheaper price.

你玩的是和世界各国央行一样的游戏，就是价格低的时候，他们拼命买。

You you play the same game as what the central banks of the world are doing in the countries is when it's low, they're buying hand over fist.

中国在购买量上不断打破纪录。

China's breaking records on what they've been buying.

所以你也这么做，等游戏结束的时候，持有金属的个人、公司和各国就能制定规则，掌握主动权。

So, you do that and when the game is over, person and companies and countries that are holding the metals make the rules and have the options.

但回到美国货币的话题，唐纳德·特朗普说过——这不是政治言论——他在一个多星期前的采访中说，美国的债务可以通过通货膨胀非常迅速地还清。

But back to The US currency, Donald Trump has said, and not political statement, but he said in an interview a week or more ago that the debt of The United States could be paid off very rapidly by inflation.

所以，这对普通人来说意味着什么呢？其实没什么大不了的。

So, what that means for the average person is not too much.

真正要解释清楚的是，“非常迅速”这个词暗示的是恶性通货膨胀。

What really means to explain it is very rapidly is implying hyperinflation.

所以，他说得非常非常快，意思就是让美元恶性通胀，这样债务就消失了，历史上所有走这条路的国家，它们的货币都是这样被消灭的。

So, they very, very rapidly is his words, that means hyperinflate the dollar and that makes the debt go away and that's how every currency has always been extinguished in countries' histories that have gone down this road.

所以，这对我来说并不意外，只是承认了他们的计划，而且他们已经向公众灌输了这个想法，说：嘿，我们可以通过通胀来摆脱债务。

So, it's not a surprise to me, it's just it's an acknowledgement that that's what they plan to do and they've sowed the seeds with the public going, Hey, we can get rid of the debt by using inflation.

迟早，普通人不会明白这到底意味着什么，他们还会为此欢呼，因为我们要摆脱债务，但他们不明白，他们仍然在为此付出代价，那就是失去所有美元储蓄，因为他们50万美元的投资组合会变得一文不值。

Sooner or later, the average person's not going to understand what that really means and they're going be cheering it on because we got to get rid of the debt, but they don't understand that they're still paying for that by losing all of their savings in dollars, because their $500,000 portfolio becomes worthless.

这就是通胀如何摧毁每个人的储蓄。

That's how inflation destroys everyone's savings.

所以，那些持有金属的人对此免疫。

So, those that are in metal are immune to that.

那些持有美元的人会失去一切。

Those that are in dollars lose everything.

而这就是他们的计划。

And that's what they plan to do.

至于时间表是什么，我现在没法告诉你。

Whatever the timeline is, can't tell you right now.

不知道。

Don't know.

好的。

Okay.

那你觉得这是不是美元的一种认输迹象？连美国财政部都在考虑这种想法。

So would you even view that as borderline a sign of defeat with the US dollar that the US treasury is even entertaining this as an idea?

他们永远不会承认失败，所以一直在转移话题。

They're never going to want to admit defeat, so it's deflection all the way.

没有哪个政府愿意违约，他们总是选择恶性通胀。

No government wants to default, they always hyperinflate.

他们从来不愿意承认，因为他们都信奉凯恩斯主义经济学，这很疯狂，但最终结果就是这样。

They never want to acknowledge because they're all Keynesian economics that they all follow, which is insane, but this is what winds up happening.

这是一个基于债务的体系，最终都会走到这一步。

It's a debt based system and eventually this is what happens.

他们永远不会承认失败，直到整个体系彻底崩溃，最后他们不得不承认必须回归金本位，这已经是他们能承认的最大限度的失败了。

They'll never admit defeat until it literally comes crashing down and eventually they're gonna have to admit they have to go back to a gold standard, and that's as much as they admit to a defeat.

好的。

Okay.

当然，到那个时候，作为投资者，你能做的最好的准备就是手里已经拿着实物黄金和白银，而不是ETF。

And the best position you can put yourself in as an investor of course, at that point would to be already holding the physical gold and silver as opposed to ETFs.

那么，在这种情景下，实物黄金和白银相比那些由实物黄金和白银支持的基金，最大的优势是什么？

And what would the big advantage would the physical gold and silver have over say the, the funds backed by physical gold and silver in this, scenario In per

在这种情景下，到了最后阶段，持有ETF的人实际上手里什么都没有。

this scenario, when we get to the end game of that, the person holding the ETFs is actually holding nothing.

对。

Okay.

他们是以美元计价的，最后拿到的也是美元。

You know, like they're in dollars and they get paid out in dollars.

如果他们持有的量足够大，可以要求交割，假设系统还在运行，那他们也只能拿到商业规格的金条，白银是一千盎司一条，黄金至少是公斤级或者一百盎司一条，然后你拿那些怎么办？

If they hold enough that they can stand for delivery, assuming that a system is still in operation, then they can only get commercial size bars, which is, you know, a thousand ounce bars for silver and minimum kilo or 100 ounce bars of gold, and then what are you going to do with that?

这两种都是问题。

Both of those are a problem.

你手里还是有点价值，总比什么都没有强，但问题还是在于，你怎么扛着一块75磅的金条去农贸市场交易呢。

You'll still have some value that's better than nothing, but you're still going to have a problem with how do you take a 75 pound bar down to the farmer's market and transact with it.

所以，那会是个大问题，但大多数人手里的量都不够去交割，所以唯一的出路就是换成支票。

So, that would be a big, big issue, but most people don't have enough to stay in for delivery, so your only exit is to a check.

如果货币恶性通胀到一文不值，你可能会拿到一张20万美元的支票，但上面全是零，实际上它永远不是零，它代表的是200美元，但200美元可能只够买杯咖啡，所以实际上等于什么都没有。

And if the currency is hyperinflated to nothing, you could get $200,000 of zeros, which basically it's never a zero, it's gonna represent $200, but $200 may only buy a cup of coffee, so therefore it's really worth nothing.

就像我之前在播客里展示过的津巴布韦100万亿纸币，在津巴布韦只能买一个鸡蛋。

Like the Zimbabwe $100,000,000,000,000 bill I've showed before on podcast, that buys one egg in Zimbabwe.

抱歉，对，津巴布韦。

Pardon me, yeah, Zimbabwe.

它以前叫罗德西亚。

So, it used to be called Rhodesia.

所以，任何以美元计价的资产，你的退出路径都得先回到货币，然后才能换成金属。

So, anything else that's denominated in dollars, your exits are back to the currency before you can go to metal.

在你说的那种最终局面的情况下，到那时候就太晚了。

On that end game scenario that you're referring to, it will be too late at that point.

如果你那时候想从某种以美元计价的资产里撤出来，换成金属，你很可能做不到。

If you're trying to get out of the system of some kind of dollar denominated asset and get into metal at that point, you likely are not going be able to do it.

那些手里有金属的人，早就已经准备好了，他们会没事的。

You're going to have anyone that has metal is already in that camp and will be all right.

如果你没准备好，现在才想买金属，那很可能什么都买不到。

If you're not in that camp and you're trying to get metal, odds are you will not be able to get any.

好的。

Alright.

好了，今天的时间和问题就到这里了。非常感谢你抽出时间。

Well, that is all the time and questions we have today, Thank you so much for your time.

在我们结束之前，我们想提一下秋季促销。

Before we do wrap up today, we do want to mention the fall sale.

具体细节会发在下面，比如日期、费率这些。

The details will be posted below such as the date, such as the rates.

安德鲁，再次非常感谢你抽出时间。

Andrew, once more, I thank you so much for your time.

谢谢你，凯伦。

Thank you, Kellen.

如果大家需要联系我，可以拨打免费电话 +1 (888) 861-0775。

If anyone needs to reach out to me, you can call the toll free number +1 (888) 861-0775.

我的分机号是230。

My extension 230.

如果你想再问我一个问题，或者想深入讨论某个话题，直接给我打电话就行。

You want to fire another question at me or debate something, at length, just give me a call.

好的。

All right.

那祝你今天剩下的时间愉快。

Well, enjoy the rest of your day.

再次感谢你。

It was, thanks again.

这真是一次非常愉快的交流。

It was nothing short of a pleasure.

谢谢。

Thank you.

你也是。

You as well.