Sprott Money News - 债务危机正在恶化:你需要知道这些 | Peter Boockvar 封面

债务危机正在恶化:你需要知道这些 | Peter Boockvar

The Debt Crisis Is Getting Worse: Here's What You Need to Know | Peter Boockvar

本集简介

Peter Boockvar joins Craig Hemke for Sprott Money to examine the growing risks in global bond markets, rising government debt, Federal Reserve rate hikes, persistent inflation, and what these developments could mean for gold, silver, commodities, and investors in 2026. As U.S. Treasury yields surge and concerns over government deficits intensify, Peter explains why investors are becoming increasingly reluctant to hold long-term sovereign debt, how Japan's bond market is influencing global interest rates, and why yield curve control could become a dangerous policy response. He also discusses the growing demand for hard assets, why gold and silver remain important components of portfolio diversification, how the AI investment boom could eventually lose momentum, and where investors may find opportunities beyond overcrowded technology stocks.

双语字幕

仅展示文本字幕,不包含中文音频;想边听边看,请使用 Bayt 播客 App。

Speaker 0

欢迎再次收听Sprott Money,来自sprottmoney.com。

Hello again from Sprott Money at sprottmoney.com.

Speaker 0

现在已经是,天哪,十月中旬了。

It is now, gosh, mid October.

Speaker 0

又到了本月‘专家问答’环节的时间了。

It's already time for your ask the expert segment for the month.

Speaker 0

我是主持人Craig Hemke。

I'm your host, Craig Hemke.

Speaker 0

今天和我一起的是再次做客的嘉宾Peter Boockvar。

Joining me is returning guest, Peter Boockvar.

Speaker 0

你可能在财经电视节目上见过Peter。

You probably recognize Peter from stints on financial television.

Speaker 0

如果你关注贵金属,去参加会议时也会看到他。

You'll see him at conferences if you go out and follow the precious metals.

Speaker 0

他是One Point BFG财富合伙公司的首席投资官。

He is the chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners.

Speaker 0

他在X上很值得关注。

He is a great follow on X.

Speaker 0

你可以在X上找到他,用户名是p bookvar,B O O C K V A R。

You can find him at p bookvar, B O O C K V A R.

Speaker 0

他还写了一个很棒的Substack专栏,叫《The Book Report》,B O O C K,对吧?

And he also writes a tremendous substack called the book report, B O O C K, right?

Speaker 0

彼得,我说得怎么样?

Peter, how'd I do?

Speaker 1

很好,你说得完全对。

Great, you nailed it.

Speaker 0

你都提到了?

You hit him all?

Speaker 0

好的。

All right.

Speaker 0

那么……

What...

Speaker 0

然后,然后……

And and...

Speaker 0

你知道吗?

You know what?

Speaker 0

我们就直接开始吧。

Let's just start.

Speaker 0

什么……

What...

Speaker 0

就说说你日常工作是怎么赚钱的吧。

Just describe your daily duties in how you make a living.

Speaker 1

我们是别人资金的管家,要确保这些钱被合理、谨慎地投资。

So we are the steward of other people's money, and we need to make sure that it's invested properly and prudently.

Speaker 1

这就是我每天的工作内容。

And that's how I spend my day.

Speaker 1

我管理……

I manage...

Speaker 1

我是两个特定策略的投资组合经理,客户会把这些策略纳入他们的资产配置中。

I'm the portfolio manager on two specific strategies that clients integrate into their asset allocation.

Speaker 1

所以我每天醒着的时候都在做研究,寻找投资想法,努力避开那些不好的点子。

So I'm spending all my days and waking hours researching, trying to find investment ideas, trying to stay out of bad ideas.

Speaker 1

我的很多想法都汇总在我的Substack上。

And a lot of my thoughts are sort of brought together in my substack.

Speaker 1

但我的主要精力还是放在投资方面,关注该投哪里、不该投哪里,既包括国内市场,也包括国际市场上的各种资产类别。

But my main focus is the investment side and where to be, where not to be, both domestically, but also internationally in a variety of different asset classes.

Speaker 0

要做到这一点,彼得,你得是个很棒的宏观分析师,才能在2026年这么多变数中把握全局。

And to do that, Peter, you've got to be kind of a great macro analyst, you know, to really get that 37,000 foot view with so many moving parts in 2026.

Speaker 0

我敢说,要跟上所有事情肯定非常不容易。

I'm sure it's been extremely challenging to stay on top of everything.

Speaker 1

其实我……

I actually...

Speaker 1

我……

I...

Speaker 1

我想做的就是结合宏观和微观。

What I try to do is marry both the macro and the micro.

Speaker 1

因为我们持有大量股票,我要听很多财报电话会议。

Since we own a a a lot of stocks, I go through an enormous amount of earnings calls.

Speaker 1

所以我觉得把自上而下和自下而上的信息结合起来,听听公司在季度、月度、日常经营中遇到的情况和他们的所见所闻,这确实能为经济形势、他们面临的挑战、亮点和难点增添很多色彩。

So I think bringing that together, both the top down, but also the bottoms up, you know, to hear what companies are experiencing, you know, quarter to quarter, month to month, day to day in their business and what they're seeing, I think adds a lot of sort of flavor, I guess you can say, to what the picture is in terms of the economy and what they're facing, where the bright spots are, where the challenges are, and so on.

Speaker 0

让你保持最佳状态。

Keeps you on top on your game.

Speaker 0

我们生活在一个不可预测的世界里。

We're in this unpredictable world that we live in.

Speaker 0

再想想年初的时候,那些未知的未知和不可预见的后果把我们带到了现在这个局面。

Just, again, you think of where we were when we began the year, all the unknown unknowns and the unforeseen consequences have brought us to this point.

Speaker 0

今年一开始就有这种想法。

You know, the year started with this notion.

Speaker 0

我想大家都以为美联储会……

I think everybody thought the fed was gonna...

Speaker 0

而且政府本来打算让经济过热,对吧,可能还会因为特朗普新任的美联储主席上台而有一些降息。

And the government was gonna run it hot, right, with maybe some rate cuts from Trump's new, fed chair that was gonna take over.

Speaker 0

结果我们反而迎来了加息。

And instead we've gotten rate hikes.

Speaker 0

你对美联储这次的政策动作、政策转变怎么看?

What do you make of this Fed policy move, policy change?

Speaker 0

外面有些说法,认为这可能是政策失误。

There's some talk out there that maybe it's a policy error.

Speaker 0

你觉得他们开始加息的做法是对的吗?

Do you think they're doing the right thing by starting this hiking regime?

Speaker 1

所以我会……

So I would...

Speaker 1

我形容他们这次的做法,包括这次加息,以及之前从5.5%的水平降息,我觉得我们更像是处于一个利率微调的周期。

The way that I'm referring to what they did, both on this rate increase and prior to this when they were cutting rates off the five and a half percent level, was was I viewed us being more in a rate tweaking cycle.

Speaker 1

从历史上看,要么全做,要么不做。

You know, historically, it's all or none.

Speaker 1

美联储要么把联邦基金利率一路降到零或者一,要么就大幅加息。

It's the Fed's gonna take the Fed funds rate all the way down to zero or one, or they're gonna hike back up dramatically.

Speaker 1

就是这样从一个极端到另一个极端。

And it's just this this one extreme to another.

Speaker 1

我觉得因为当时的情况……

And I felt that because of what was...

Speaker 1

结果证明,我认为通胀会比他们的目标更持久,所以美联储实际上更多的是在边缘调整利率,而不是别的。

What ended up being what I thought it would be more persistent inflation well above their target, that the the Fed would really be more adjusting rates around the edges more than anything.

Speaker 1

他们……

You know, they...

Speaker 1

当他们从五点五降到四左右或者略低于四的时候,他们其实只是在缓和利率大幅上升的压力。

When they went from five and a half down to, you know, four ish or slightly below that, they were really just more taking the edge off that very dramatic rise in interest rates.

Speaker 1

另一方面,我回顾了……

And on the flip side, I reviewed the...

Speaker 1

我认为这次加息,可能十二月还会再加一次,更多只是微调。

I I view this rate increase, and maybe we get another one in December, as more just refinement.

Speaker 1

而且我觉得这不一定是个板上钉钉的决定,因为现在很多推动通胀的因素更多是供应端的,美联储对此无能为力。

And I and I and I don't think it's necessarily the slam dunk decision because a lot of the things right now that are driving inflation are more supply driven that the Fed can't do anything about.

Speaker 1

不过,他们可以影响需求端,这可能是重新调整供需平衡的另一种方式。

However, they could impact the demand side, which could be another way of recalibrating sort of the equilibrium between supply and demand.

Speaker 1

但不管美联储怎么样,债券市场有自己的声音,而且它确实在整个收益率曲线上表达了自己的看法。

Irrespective though of the Fed, the bond market has its own voice, and it certainly has been expressing it across the yield curve.

Speaker 1

不仅是在这里,我们在欧洲也看到了,在日本也看到了。

Not just here, but we've seen in Europe, and we've seen in Japan.

Speaker 1

我知道大家都想弄清楚,嗯,这就是利率上升的确切原因。

And I know everyone tries to figure out, well, this is the exact reason why rates are going up.

Speaker 1

对我来说,原因是多方面的。

To me, it's all of the above.

Speaker 1

有各种各样的原因。

It's a variety of different reasons.

Speaker 1

但其中一个就是市场对通胀的看法。

One of those, though, happens to be the market's view on inflation.

Speaker 1

有意思的是,考虑到能源价格战后的反应,通胀保值债券市场的通胀预期其实并没有大幅上升。

Now, interestingly enough, the inflation expectations in the tips market haven't really gone up that much in light of the, you know, the postwar response in energy prices.

Speaker 1

所以美国利率的上涨

So, the rise in interest rates in The U.

Speaker 1

是。

S.

Speaker 1

更多是来自实际利率的上升。

Has been more of a rise in real rates.

Speaker 1

话虽如此,我仍然认为通胀预期很重要,但我们亲眼看到债务和赤字也很关键,尤其是在美国国债市场方面。

Now, that said, I still do think that inflationary expectations matter, but we know when we're seeing firsthand that debts and deficits matter, where, at least with The U.

Speaker 1

美国

S.

Speaker 1

国债市场,那些拥有贸易顺差的国家希望回收他们的美元,这种情况在美国

Treasury market, where foreign trade surplus countries want to recycle their dollars, It's much less so in U.

Speaker 1

美国

S.

Speaker 1

国债。

Treasuries.

Speaker 1

更多的是抵押贷款支持证券,还有美国的

It's more so in even mortgage backed securities, U.

Speaker 1

美国

S.

Speaker 1

股票、黄金以及美国以外的资产

Stocks, gold, and and assets outside The U.

Speaker 1

美国。

S.

Speaker 1

也一样。

As well.

Speaker 1

所以这些因素都有影响,但我觉得归根结底,美联储现在更像是跟随收益率曲线其他部分的走势,而不是像过去那样处于引领者的地位。

So it's a variety of these things, but I think that bottom line is that the Fed is much more of a follower of the rest of the yield curve rather than its historical position as being sort of the leader of it.

Speaker 0

这两年期国债的表现,在过去八个月左右——也就是战争开始以来——简直可以说是非同寻常。就像你说的,这几乎是在逼着他们采取行动,对吧?是的,我每天都看到相关的消息。

The, what has gone on in the two year note is almost extraordinary in the last eight months or whatever it's been since the war began, almost kind of forcing their hand, as you said, is it, yeah, everybody, I keep seeing stuff every day.

Speaker 0

就像你说的,大家都在给全球债券市场的大跌找各种理由。

Well, it's like you said, everybody's kind of coming up with their own reason as to why global bond markets have sold off so much.

Speaker 0

我经常看到的一个理由是,AI基础设施的需求把其他投资都挤出去了。

One of the excuses I keep seeing is this crowding out from all this AI infrastructure demand.

Speaker 0

是这样吗?

Is it?

Speaker 0

我觉得那肯定是原因之一。

I mean, I'm sure that's part of it.

Speaker 0

但这会不会反映出一个结构性的问题,导致大投资者纷纷抛售美国国债和其他主权债券,从而推高了利率?

Is is this though kind of a reflection of something structural, a structural issue that is causing big investors to flee from treasuries and other sovereign debt and forcing those rates higher?

Speaker 0

如果是这样的话,那可能会带来一些长期的影响。

Because that would have some long term impacts if that was the case.

Speaker 1

嗯,就像我们说的,原因是多方面的。

Well, it's, like we said, it's a variety of things.

Speaker 1

美联储加息的影响正在蔓延到整个收益率曲线。

It's the Fed rate increases that are extending out throughout the curve.

Speaker 1

在我看来,全球利率上升的一个重大因素是日本利率的上升。

A big factor, in my opinion, in the rise in global interest rates is the rise in rates in Japan.

Speaker 1

日本是现代金融利率压制的设计者,通过几十年的量化宽松和零利率政策。

You know, Japan was the modern day architect of financial rate repression through decades of QE, zero rates.

Speaker 1

他们甚至加入了欧洲的行列,实行负利率。

They went negative joining the Europeans.

Speaker 1

而五年前,日本十年期国债收益率是0.04%。

And five years ago, the Japanese ten year yield was at point 04%.

Speaker 1

快进到2023年夏天,他们说,好吧,够了。

Fast forward to summer twenty twenty three, and they said, Okay, enough is enough.

Speaker 1

在逐步放宽收益率曲线控制区间后,他们基本上取消了这一政策。

After incrementally widening the yield curve control band, they essentially got rid of it.

Speaker 1

这不仅解除了对日本利率的压制,也解除了对全球利率的压制。

And that was taking the foot off the neck of not only Japanese interest rates, but global interest rates.

Speaker 1

对我来说,这是推动美国十年期国债收益率达到5%的主要因素。

And to me, that was a major factor in spurring the five percent ten year yield in The U.

Speaker 1

美国。

S.

Speaker 1

2023年10月,我们当时退了一步,但现在当然已经超过了。

In October 2023, that we then backed off from, but now of course above.

Speaker 1

而且我觉得这影响也蔓延到了欧洲。

And I think it flew through into Europe.

Speaker 1

欧洲央行降息了200个基点,之后又开始加息,而欧洲的长期利率也一直居高不下。

I mean, the ECB was cut rates 200 basis points before they started increasing them again, and long term interest rates remained very elevated in Europe as well.

Speaker 1

所以这是多种因素共同作用的结果,但我觉得总的来说,投资者——就像你提到的资本竞争——他们就是不太愿意借钱给主权政府,尤其是长期、长久期的债务。

So it's a confluence of these things, but I think generally, you know, investors, and to your competition for capital point, investors are just less willing to lend sovereign governments money long maturities, long duration.

Speaker 1

这也影响到了他们对其他长期资产的需求,比如市政债和公司债。

And, you know, that spills into their appetite for long term duration in other things like munis and corporates, for example.

Speaker 1

所以,这确实是一个连锁反应。

So, there's definitely a sea chain.

Speaker 1

所以,当大家对长期久期风险有些回避时,再加上现在公司部门——特别是那些为AI建设融资的公司——大量发行债券,你就会有点被固定收益供应淹没,我们现在看到的就是这种反应。

So, when you have some aversion to taking long term duration risk, and then you get further flooded by now the corporate sector, particularly those companies financing the AI build out, you know, you sort of drown a bit in fixed income supply and, you know, we're seeing the reaction.

Speaker 0

所以我想,彼得,这大概就引出了我最终想问你的那个问题。

So I guess, Peter, I guess that kind of leads me to, was ultimately my end question that I wanted to pick your brain on.

Speaker 0

我坐在这儿,干这行已经十五、十六年了。

You know, I've been sitting here, I've been doing this old stuff for fifteen, sixteen years.

Speaker 0

我记得当时还想着,2010年我们可能都撑不过去,对吧?

I remember thinking we wouldn't get out of 2010, right?

Speaker 0

然后呢,哎呀,2011年也是一团糟。

And then, oh, 2011 is such a mess.

Speaker 0

现在都到2026年了,但债务还在不断累积。

Now here we are in 2026, but the debt has continued to accumulate.

Speaker 0

而且我们马上就要看到新的数据了,今天就会公布,因为我们录制的时候是13号,美国本财年刚结束。

And we're about to find out another final numbers are going to come out today as we, as record this on the thirteenth, the current fiscal year for The U.

Speaker 0

美国。

S.

Speaker 0

刚结束。

Just ended.

Speaker 0

虽然这么说不太标准,但最近一个财年确实在九月底结束了。

I guess that's not proper English, but the most recent fiscal year just ended at the end of September.

Speaker 0

债务又增加了两万亿美元。

Another $2,000,000,000,000 of debt on the pile.

Speaker 0

对我来说,这些高利率的影响就是让这个循环转得更快,因为债务服务成本更高,发行更多,又导致更多的债务服务成本。

These higher rates to me have this impact of kind of spinning the wheel faster because you've got more debt service and more issuance, which leads to more debt service.

Speaker 0

我们是不是更接近那种——我不想称之为终局——但就是事情开始加速、出现像美国那样激烈行动的局面?

Are we any closer to that kind of, I don't want to call it end game, but kind of where things really start to move quickly and, and drastic actions like The U.

Speaker 0

美国

S.

Speaker 0

也许他们会像日本那样,尝试某种形式的收益率曲线控制。

Maybe some, they're on kind of reverting back to what Japan did, trying to some form of yield curve control.

Speaker 0

你觉得,从整体来看,今年我们处在什么位置?

Where are we, I guess, picture wise, given all this to happen this year?

Speaker 1

嗯,我确实认为现在投资者开始在意了。

Well, I do think that investors now care.

Speaker 1

四十年前,人们就在抱怨美国的债务问题。

Forty years ago, people were complaining about U.

Speaker 1

美国。

S.

Speaker 1

赤字问题,但当时大家都不当回事,直到真的出事了才意识到严重性。

Debts and deficits, and it never mattered until it did.

Speaker 1

不过我觉得现在这确实是个值得重视的问题。

But I do think it does matter.

Speaker 1

而且大家每天都在讨论这个话题,这就说明人们现在确实很在意了。

And in that, I mean, everyone talks about it every day, so that tells you right there that people now care.

Speaker 1

法国国债收益率上升并不是因为法国经济增长强劲。

French bond yields are not rising because there's this robust growth rate in France.

Speaker 1

而是因为大家担心那里的财政赤字和过高的债务问题。

It's rising because of worries about the budget deficit there and the excessive debts.

Speaker 1

英国国债收益率上升也不是因为经济有强劲的增长水平。

UK guilt yields are not rising because there's this robust level of growth.

Speaker 1

它们上涨是因为人们担心英国政府陷入的那种恶性循环——支出过多,税负沉重,而且他们还在通过进一步加税让情况变得更糟。

They're rising because people are worried about this sort of spiral that the UK government is in with too much excessive, too much spending, and an enormous tax burden that they keep making worse by raising taxes even further.

Speaker 1

所以,很明显这很重要。

So, it's clear that it matters.

Speaker 1

然后你回到日本,看看相对较新的高市政府,在他们讨论并提出进一步财政措施的那些日子里,你会看到日本债券被抛售。

And you'll get to go back to Japan, you know, you look at the relatively new Takaiichi government, and the days when they talked about, they proposed, you know, further fiscal measures, you saw a sell off in Japanese bonds.

Speaker 1

所以我确实认为这很重要。

So I do think it matters.

Speaker 1

而且我认为这也会影响到我们这里。

And I think that flows through here.

Speaker 1

有趣的是,关于法国预算赤字占GDP比例的担忧,美国其实也有一个稍微更大的赤字。

You know, the interesting thing with the concerns about the French budget deficit relative to GDP is The U.

Speaker 1

对。

S.

Speaker 1

甚至略大一点。

Has an even slightly larger one.

Speaker 1

所以这确实很重要。

So it does matter.

Speaker 0

你觉得最终的政策应对会是什么?

What do you think ultimately the policy response will be?

Speaker 0

会不会像日本央行那样采取更严厉的措施,试图施加某种收益率曲线控制?

I mean, is it more draconian like the, you know, the bank of Japan kind of actions to try to impose some kind of yield curve?

Speaker 0

我们是不是在八月份贝森计划对长期债券的操作中已经看到了一点这种迹象?

I mean, do we almost see a little bit of that in August with Bessence program on the long bond?

Speaker 0

还是说他们只是觉得,嘿,我们对此无能为力,只能硬扛过去?

Or were they just, you know, hey, this is nothing we can do about it and just try to weather the situation?

Speaker 1

我觉得他们还没开始筹划这些。

I don't think they're game planning that yet.

Speaker 1

政客们不会去应对——

Politicians don't react.

Speaker 1

抱歉,他们不会主动为某件事做准备。

Sorry, don't proactively prepare for something.

Speaker 1

他们只会被动应对。

They only react.

Speaker 1

因为如果他们早有准备,国会里肯定会有针对当前局势的讨论。

Because if they were preparing, well, then you would have discussions in Congress about the situation.

Speaker 1

据我所知,目前并没有相关的听证会进行。

And I'm not aware of any hearings going on.

Speaker 1

现在,也许在美国持有六年期债券的人……

Now, maybe a 6% tenure in The U.

Speaker 1

是。

S.

Speaker 1

会推动这一趋势。

Would drive that.

Speaker 1

不过,你看看斯科特·贝森斯上个月做了什么。

Now, but look what Scott Besson did last month.

Speaker 1

他试图跟美国长期国债市场对着干,结果被狠狠教训了一顿。

He tried to pick a fight with The US long end, and he got run over.

Speaker 1

所以,那至少是一个信号……

So, that was at least a sign that...

Speaker 1

而且他懂市场。

And he knows markets.

Speaker 1

虽然我不同意他的做法,因为我觉得那不会奏效,但他显然在告诉全世界,他在非常密切地关注这件事,这是他应该做的,而且他是个懂市场的人,他会这么做的。

And while I disagreed with what he did, because I just didn't think it would work, He clearly is telling the world that he's paying attention very closely, as he should, and he's a market guy and as he will.

Speaker 1

所以,确实要肯定他对这件事的重视。

So, give him credit for caring about it, for sure.

Speaker 1

但我认为他拿到了一手很难打的牌,因为他当然还得应对国会。

But I think he was just dealt a really tough set of cards because he's having to deal with Congress, of course.

Speaker 1

而且我们知道疫情后的情况,特朗普1.0和拜登都花了巨额资金,而且当世界恢复正常时,这些开支从未削减。

And we know what the situation was post COVID, where both Trump one point o and Biden spent an enormous amount of money that that was never pared back when the world normalized.

Speaker 1

所以,那确实是一手很难打的牌。

So, that was a tough hand to be dealt with.

Speaker 1

而且这不仅仅是跟美国……

And and it wasn't only pushing back against the U.

Speaker 1

美国。

S.

Speaker 1

国债市场,我的意思是,这里的收益率也受到日本的影响,他也在跟日本债券市场较劲。

Treasury market, you know, to my point where what happens here in yields also is influenced by Japan, he was picking a fight too with the Japanese bond market as well.

Speaker 1

所以,我只是……

So, I just...

Speaker 1

这……

It was...

Speaker 1

但你说得对,这是他们的第一轮试探,而且没有成功。那接下来会怎么发展呢?

It but to your point, this was their first sort of salvo and it didn't And where can this go?

Speaker 1

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 1

也许收益率曲线控制是一种选择,但这是一个非常危险的工具,因为可能不起作用。

Maybe yield curve control is something, but it's it's it's a very dangerous tool to use because it may not work.

Speaker 1

澳大利亚在疫情后尝试过收益率曲线控制,然后他们发现,天哪,通胀在飙升,而我们却在压低收益率曲线,结果他们被市场碾压了。

Australia tried yield curve control coming out of COVID, and they realized, wow, inflation's spiking, and we're pinning the yield curve, and they got run over.

Speaker 1

他们不得不结束那个政策,然后利率就飙升了。

They had to end that, and rates spiked up.

Speaker 1

我们知道日本实行了一段时间,而且确实有效,但最终,当它结束的时候,你会看到利率从这儿涨到那儿。

We know Japan did it for a while, and it worked, but eventually, at some point, when it ends, you go from rates here and then you go up here.

Speaker 1

当你玩这些游戏,试图操控利率的时候,总得有人来买单。

Someone has to pay the piper when you play these games and you try to play God over over interest rates.

Speaker 0

最后,考虑到所有这些,如果你要把这些应用到观众身上,你会怎么把这些想法转化为资产配置和投资策略呢?

And lastly, in what you do, recognizing all of this, If you were to extend this to the viewer, what how do you apply all of this that's rolling around in your in your mind toward an asset allocation and an investment strategy?

Speaker 0

有没有什么规则或概念是你特别关注的,对你有用的?

Are there certain rules or concepts that you want to watch, things that work for you?

Speaker 1

嗯,我们来看看固定收益。

Well, let's look at fixed income.

Speaker 1

我们得记住,虽然记忆通常很短,但我们得记住我们经历了15年的零利率,那时候每个人都渴望收益。

We have to remember, and memories are usually short, but we have to remember we had 15 of zero rates and everyone was desperate for income.

Speaker 1

现在,债券市场给了我们这份收益的礼物。

Now, the bond market's giving us this gift of income.

Speaker 1

所以,这真的是件好事。

So, that's a really nice thing.

Speaker 1

我们更倾向于收益率曲线的短端。

We prefer the shorter end of the curve.

Speaker 1

我也非常看好通胀保值债券,因为我觉得那个市场低估了通胀。

I'm very bullish on tips as well, because I feel like that market's underpricing inflation.

Speaker 1

在股市方面,很难避免接触人工智能,但我确实认为现在需要真正设定合适的配置,因为回报已经非常惊人,我觉得我们已经提前透支了未来几年的收益,而且到某个时候,这个资本支出周期会减弱,这对很多向基础设施建设和工具销售的公司来说会是个打击。

With the stock market, you know, it's hard to avoid being exposed to AI, I do think you need to really set the proper allocation at this point because the returns have been so extraordinary that I think we've pulled forward a bunch in the coming years, and then at some point, this CapEx cycle is going to wane and it's gonna be hurtful for a bunch of different companies that are selling into the picks and shovels infrastructure build.

Speaker 1

希望这些工具真的很好,我们都能从中受益,我们指的是经济中的其他部分。

Hopefully, the bottles are really good, and we all benefit from that, that we all being the rest of the economy.

Speaker 1

但我确实认为,持有大宗商品敞口很重要。

But I do think that it's important to have exposure to commodities.

Speaker 1

很明显,从能源、去年到今年的贵金属以及工业金属的表现来看,全世界都非常热衷于持有实物资产。

I mean, it's clear that what we've seen with energy, what we've seen in precious metals last year and into this year, and industrial metals, you know, the world is is very interested in owning hard assets.

Speaker 1

所以,对我来说,这是当前投资组合中很重要的一部分。

So, to me, that's an important part of one's portfolio right now.

Speaker 1

而且我觉得市面上还有很多便宜的好东西。

And I also think that there's a lot of cheap stuff out there.

Speaker 1

毕竟当你已经抓住了AI这波行情,其他那些领域其实没那么重要了,但话说回来,其他那些板块现在真的便宜得不得了。

Because when you can own the AI trade, who cares about a lot of different things, but a lot, all those other different things are getting really cheap.

Speaker 1

所以我觉得投资者一定要意识到,AI这波行情迟早会撞墙,到时候你就需要配置一些其他资产了,与其说是为了对冲风险,不如说是为了分散投资。

So, I think it's really important for investors to acknowledge that at some point, the AI trade's gonna hit a wall, and you're gonna want to own other things as sort of, I don't wanna say a hedge, but as part of one's diversification.

Speaker 0

没错,保持投资组合的多元化确实很重要。

Just keep yourself diversified for sure.

Speaker 0

彼得,每次和你聊天都特别开心,非常感谢你抽出时间。

Peter, it's it's always so much fun to get caught up with you, and I I thank you very much for your time.

Speaker 0

我就……

I just...

Speaker 0

走之前我想再确认一下,如果你在X平台上活跃的话,那真是个每天紧跟新闻的好渠道,账号是pBOOCKVAR@Pbook,bookvar。

On the way out, I wanna make sure, again, if you're on X, great way to stay on top of the news every single day at pBOOCKVAR@Pbook,bookvar.

Speaker 0

顺便再把你的Substack地址报一遍,方便大家关注你的作品。

And then hit everybody with that Substack address again real quick so they can follow your work.

Speaker 1

去Substack,搜索book report,就是B双O C K report。

Go to Substack and it's the book report B double O C K report.

Speaker 0

这听起来挺好找的,真是的。

That sounds pretty easy to find, for crying out loud.

Speaker 0

大家快去看看吧,也请继续关注这个频道。

Everybody check it out and everybody please keep an eye on this channel.

Speaker 0

现在才十月中旬。

We are only halfway through the month of October.

Speaker 0

接下来还有一场重要的美联储会议。

We got a big fed meeting to come.

Speaker 0

哦,到年底还有很长一段路要走呢。

Oh, we got a long ways to go before the end of the year.

Speaker 0

离开前记得点赞或订阅。

Hit the like or the subscribe button on your way out.

Speaker 0

这样每次有新内容你都会收到通知,而且十月份这里还会有更多内容。

So you're notified every time there's more content and there's going to be more content here in October.

Speaker 0

你肯定不想错过,那我们现在就结束吧。

You're not going to want to miss it for now that we'll sign off.

Speaker 0

彼得,非常感谢你抽出时间。

Peter, thank you so much for your time.

Speaker 0

我真的很感激

I really appreciate

Speaker 1

你。

it.

Speaker 0

我们所有人,SprottMoney,sprotmoney.com。

All of us, SprottMoney, sprottmoney.com.

Speaker 0

感谢观看。

Thanks for watching.

Speaker 0

我们十月继续,到时候再见。

And we'll see you again as the month of October continues.

关于 Bayt 播客

Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕,帮助你打破语言障碍,轻松听懂全球优质播客。

继续浏览更多播客