为什么要在为时已晚之前买入白银 | Andrew Sleigh

大家好。

Hi there everyone.

欢迎回到Ask Andrew播客。

And welcome back to the Ask Andrew podcast.

今天我们再次请到了Andrew Sleigh。

Once again, we are joined by Andrew Sleigh.

好的。

All right.

我们这里有很多问题。

We have quite a slew of questions here.

那我们就直接开始吧。

So let's dive on in.

如果一个人对贵金属完全陌生，他们应该如何决定先从黄金还是白银开始？

If someone is completely new to precious metals, how should they decide whether to start with gold or silver?

有没有什么规则或原则，是你个人觉得帮助你在持有贵金属时建立信心的？

Is there a rule or principle that has personally helped you gain confidence in owning precious metals?

所以如果你是那种千万富翁、亿万富翁，你通常会大量买入黄金。

So if you're like the, the, the multi 10 millionaire, a 100 millionaire, you're going to generally plow in with gold.

但在这个过程中，也需要买一些白银。

And but along the way, need to procure some silver.

如果你是普通的加拿大人或美国人，资产不到一两百万，那你可能会想先买银币来建立基础仓位，然后再按你舒服的比例补充黄金。

If you're the average Canadian or American, where you've got, I don't know, let's say less than 1,000,000 or 2,000,000 in assets, you you're gonna wanna plow into, you know, silver coins to get an established position there and then supplement with gold to whatever percentage you're comfortable with.

你可以边走边调整。

And you can basically fine tune it as you go.

所以，你不会只买黄金或白银，认为那就是正确的方式。

So, you you don't plow in with nothing but gold and or silver thinking that that's the way to go.

你可能会改变主意。

You may wind up changing your mind.

所以，如果你不太确定，投入的金额越小，越应该坚持买银币。

So, if you're not quite sure, then the lower the dollar amount you're coming in with, the more likelihood you should stick with silver coins.

投入的金额越大，就可以搭配黄金，然后按你最终形成的比例来调整。

The bigger the dollars you're coming in with, then you will mix in gold with it and fine tune to whatever percentage sort of you morph it into.

每个人的情况都不一样，所以我尽量这样回答。

And everyone's gonna be different on this case, so I'm trying to have a hear my answer that way.

但显然，你可以打电话给我们斯普罗特，我们会为你解释这些事情，帮你理清思路。

But and then obviously call call us here at Sprott and we can explain these things to you and and help you clear have a more clear picture in your head.

为什么是黄金？黄金有什么用？

Why, why gold, what gold is for?

我们为什么要买黄金？

Why do we buy that?

白银有什么用？

What silver's for?

我们为什么要买白银？

Why do we buy that?

等你对这些了解得更多了，你就可以自己决定投资比例了。

And then as you get more educated on this for yourself, then you can work on the percentages of what you want to do.

你特别提到了银币，为什么选银币而不是100盎司的银条呢？通常银条的溢价更划算。

So you mentioned specifically silver coins, why silver coins over say 100 ounce bars when 100 ounce bars typically have a better premium over spot?

现在，金币和金条的溢价差正处于历史低位，以前买100盎司金条能省很多钱。

So right now, the premium difference between coins and bars are at historic lows when there used to be a huge savings on 100 ounce bars.

所以，现在是个买金币的好时机，但我首先推荐金币的主要原因是，你需要先建立金币储备，因为那是你日常可交易的钱。

And then so that there's a, you know, good time to buy coins for that reason, but the main reason I recommend that first is you need to get an establishment in coins first because that's your transactable money.

如果你只买100盎司金条，那和只有金币的问题是一样的。

If you buy nothing but 100 ounce bars, it's the same problem as having nothing but gold coins.

它们太值钱了，你怎么买一个月的食物？

They're so valuable, how do you buy a month's worth of food?

你知道，当我们的货币出问题时，你需要小面额来进行交易。

You know, when we get to that stage where we have issues with our currency, you're gonna need small denominations to transact with.

所以，你不能只买100盎司金条而不考虑其他，因为当问题开始出现时，你后来会发现，哦，也许我不该只买100盎司金条。

So, you can't just buy a 100 ounce bars and not look at anything else because when this all starts to get a problem, you're going to discover later, Oh, maybe I shouldn't have bought nothing but a 100 ounce bars.

我们有些客户现在就这么做，回来卖给我们100盎司金条，换回金币。

And we have clients that are doing that now coming back and selling us a 100 ounce bars to go back to coins.

那样做成本很高。

And that's the expensive way to do that.

所以趁溢价低的时候，我会尽量多买些金币，直到达到你想要的量。

So while the premiums are low, I would load up on as many coins as you can until you reach your your threshold of what you want.

然后如果你还想买白银，那就去买100盎司的银条，或者任何尺寸的。

And then if you still want silver play, then go to a 100 ounce bars or whatever size.

好的。

Okay.

我们继续。

Moving on here.

你如何评估实际利率、央行购买和财政赤字对黄金和白银价格长期前景的相对影响？

How do you assess the relative impact of real interest rates, central bank buying and fiscal deficits on the long term outlook for gold and silver prices?

你如何评估实际利率、央行购买和财政赤字对黄金和白银价格长期前景的相对影响？

How do you assess the relative impact of real interest rates, central bank buying and fiscal deficits on the long term outlook for gold and silver prices?

利率会继续上升，这会对债券收益率产生实际影响，对人们的储蓄来说将是毁灭性的。

So interest rates are gonna continue to go up and that's gonna have a real impact on bond yields, which is gonna be very destructive to people's savings.

我们所知的金融界，那些顾问、共同基金公司以及所有那些人，他们还没意识到，随着利率上升，债券市场实际上会对人们的储蓄账户产生非常破坏性的影响。

The the financial world out there as we know it, the the advisers and and mutual fund companies and and all those people, they haven't figured out yet that with rising rising interest rates, the bond market is actually gonna be the very destructive effect on people's savings account.

所以那个老一套的60/40投资组合对普通投资者来说会是一场灾难。

So the old 6040 play is gonna be a catastrophe for those, you know, general investors.

现在利率已经接近5%了，三十年期国债的收益率还在往上涨，这意味着当你想要卖出这些头寸时，你的收益会和你买入时相比大打折扣。

We have interest rates are now, you know, approaching 5% on thirty year bonds and going higher, and that means that your your yields, when you try and get out of those positions, will be dramatically affected compared to what you bought in at.

比如说，如果你买了收益率2.5%的三十年期国债，现在利率到了5%，你想卖掉债券退出，基金经理就得大幅折价才能脱手，因为没人想要2.5%收益率的三十年期国债。

So for example, if you bought a thirty year, bond at two and a half percent or something, and now they're at 5% and you're trying to sell your bond and get out, the fund manager will have to discount the bond dramatically in order to get your position because nobody wants a two and a half percent thirty year bond.

所以这会造成非常非常严重的破坏。

So that's gonna be very, very, very destructive.

关于央行购买，我猜这个问题指的是央行购买黄金和白银。

Central bank buying is I'm I'm assuming that the question's referring to central banks buying gold and silver.

如果是这个背景的话，那他们就是在趁自己的货币还有购买力的时候，赶紧囤积金属。

So if that's the context, then they're loading up while their currencies still have purchasing power to buy the metal.

所以如果你是摩根大通、渣打银行或者世界上其他那些大银行，金库里存着几亿甚至几十亿的现金，你肯定不想让这些钱变得一文不值，而这就是趋势。

So if you're JPMorgan or, you know, Standard Chartered or one of these other billion banks around the world and you've got hundreds of millions or billions in cash in your vault, then you don't wanna have that become worthless, which is where it's headed.

所以唯一的保护办法就是尽可能把现金转换成金条、银条，这样当现金最终贬值时，你也不会损失什么。

And so the only way to protect that is you need to convert as much of that cash to bullion, gold, silver, so that when the cash is ultimately destroyed in value, you lose nothing.

这就是我们之前多次谈到的核心问题，凯伦，我一直说要在你的货币还能买黄金和白银之前去买。

And that's that's the crops the crutch of what we've talked about many times before, Kellen, is that I've said buy gold and silver before your currency can no longer buy it.

银行正在大规模这么做，我们个人也应该这样做。

And the banks are doing this on a bigger scale, and that's what we should be doing as individuals.

这需要很长时间，但迟早，一步一步的积累会突然一下子爆发。

And it's a you know, it takes a long process, and sooner or later, the inch by inch will be all at once.

当它一下子爆发，也就是金融危机发生时，你要么已经持有黄金和白银，要么没有，而那时你就进不去了。

And when it becomes all at once, meaning the financial event occurs, then either you're already in gold and silver or you're not and you won't get in.

所以，趁现在还能买的时候，一点一点地买入这些东西非常重要。

So, is why it's really important to peck away and buy these things while you can.

黄金和白银也反映了货币的贬值，所以它们才会涨。

Gold and silver are also representative of the devaluation of the currency, so that's why they go up.

财政赤字会继续飙升，他们会把钱投到一切能投的地方，我主要说的是西方大多数国家。

Fiscal deficits are gonna continue to skyrocket and they're gonna send money onto everything they can, and I'm addressing most countries in the West.

我甚至不太关注或担心东方在做什么，但在西方，很明显，我们想要扩大战争。

I can't even I don't even follow or worry about what the East is doing necessarily, but in the West, it's very clear that, you know, we want to expand war.

我们想要地球上所有的项目。

We want to have every program on the planet.

我们想在加拿大搞建设。

We want to build in Canada.

我们想建一条从多伦多到渥太华的五百亿美元高铁。

We want to build a $50,000,000,000 high speed train from Toronto to Ottawa.

这太荒谬了。

That's ridiculous.

你说是不是？

You know?

只要他们能砸钱、能凭空造出来的东西，他们就像醉汉一样乱花钱，这会让赤字飙升，也会让每个国家的货币贬值。

Anything they can throw a lot of money at and create from nothing, they're spending like drunken sailors and that's going to skyrocket the deficit, which is also devaluation of the currency in every country.

美国也一样，整个欧洲都是如此。

The US is the same way and all of Europe.

所以，现在全球范围内，每个货币都在竞相贬值，这就是现状。

So, it's a race to the bottom right now is what's going on globally in every currency.

我想再说一遍，所有西方货币，甚至全世界所有货币，都在竞相贬值。

And I want to repeat this, it is a race to the bottom in every Western currency, if not all the world currencies.

所以，它们都会面临真正的问题，当问题来临时，你要么已经持有黄金和白银，要么没有，那样的话你就会被排除在系统之外。

So, they're all gonna have real problems, and you're either already in gold and silver when the problem arrives or you're not, and you'll be stuck out of the system.

所以，这就是为什么回到银行和国家层面，它们都在趁系统关闭之前尽可能购买黄金和白银，不管具体是什么时候。

So, this is why going back to the banks, countries, they're all buying gold and silver while they can before the system shuts down, whenever that is exactly.

好的。

Okay.

所以，归根结底，因为赤字支出导致货币贬值，而黄金和白银将不得不随着政府执意推行的通胀政策不断恶化而一路飙升，这意味着美元的购买力将大幅下降。

So, ultimately, because of deficit spending, that's devaluation of the currency, and that gold and silver will have no choice but to go up and up and up as these inflationary policies that the governments are hell bent on doing continues to get much worse, which means the purchasing power of the dollar will get much worse.

好的。

Okay.

哇。

Wow.

我觉得我们已经把问题的各个方面都覆盖到了。

I think we covered each basis of the question there.

那我们继续下一个话题吧？

So why don't we move on?

我们先退一步，从消费者的角度来看。

Let's kind of take a step back here and go more so from a consumer standpoint.

你觉得人们刚开始买实物黄金和白银时，最容易犯的最大错误是什么？

What do you think is the biggest mistake people make when they first start buying physical gold and silver?

回顾你自己的经历，如果能回到过去，你会有什么不同的做法吗？

Looking back at your own experience, if you could go back in time, is there anything you would do differently?

是的。

Yeah.

我刚开始的时候确实犯了个错误，因为我知道我们最终要走到哪一步。

I I did a mistake when I started off because I I knew I knew where we had to be.

我知道我需要进入金属市场，离开法币金融体系。

I knew that I needed to get into metal, and out of the Fiat financial system.

但我对具体该买哪种金属、什么规格完全不懂，一开始就买了100盎司的银条。

And but I didn't know the first thing about what particular metals and sizes I should buy, and I started off buying 100 ounce bars of silver.

我买了七块，当时觉得，哇，这些真酷。

I bought seven, and I thought, oh, these are cool.

它们又大又重，各种优点什么的。我还在YouTube上看了很多那些囤积了几十年的人的视频。

These are huge and they're heavy and they're all this and whatnot, And I was watching a whole bunch of stuff on YouTube with guys that have been stacking for decades.

然后我想，好吧，我可没时间自己慢慢摸索，走弯路。

And I thought, okay, I don't have time to learn the hard way and the long way for myself.

我得听听那些囤积了几十年的人的经验，从他们的经历中学习，这样能更快地提升我的判断和知识。

I need to listen to people that have been stacking for decades and lean from their experiences to help speed up my opinion and knowledge.

所以，我听的那些人说的是，这又是针对小客户的，不是那些身家几千万的人。

So, these guys that I was listening to were talking about for the and this is again aimed at the smaller client, not people that are in the tens of millions.

他们当时建议，刚开始的时候，只买硬币来建立你的基础仓位，然后你可以逐步升级，直到你不再想要更多硬币。

They were suggesting at that time that when you're starting off, you buy nothing but coins to get your established position and then you can work your way up as you don't want any more coins.

所以，如果你硬币太多，不想要更多了，那就买10盎司的条，100盎司的条之类的。

So, if you have way too many coins and you don't want any more, then it's like, you know, 10 ounce bars, 100 ounce bars and whatnot.

很多人都有这样的观点：一盎司就是一盎司，不同尺寸适合不同用途。

Many opinions out there have been, you know, an ounce is an ounce and a variety of sizes for a variety of uses.

那样可能也行，但一盎司并不总是一盎司。

And that might work out that way, But an ounce is not an ounce.

我几次亲眼看到这种情况，这改变了我的看法。

And I've I've had that staring me in the face several times that changed my point of view on that.

那就是，我以前总是买最便宜的硬币，你知道，一盎司就是一盎司。

And that is, I used to buy whatever coin was cheapest, you know, an ounce, it was an ounce.

后来我了解到，虽然那不是什么大问题，但我遇到过一些情况，人们只愿意用枫叶银币来交换。

Later I learned that, not that that was a big problem, but I came across situations where people would only barter if you were giving them a maple, a silver maple coin.

好的。

Okay.

然后我意识到，重要的不是我对白银的了解，而是和我交换的人对白银的了解。

And so then I realized it's not what I understand about silver, it's what it's whom I'm bartering with understands about silver.

我最好有一些别人想要的东西，否则我得不到我想要的。

And I better have some of the things that these other people want, otherwise I won't get what I want.

幸运的是，在过去三年里，枫叶银币的溢价一直处于历史低位，所以很容易买到。

So, luckily in the last three years, premiums on maples, silver maples have been so low historically that it's been very easy.

它们的价格和我们网站上大多数硬币一样，甚至更便宜，而历史上它们通常比其他硬币贵两到三美元。

They've been the same price or cheaper than most of the coins on our site when they historically are like 2 or $3 more than all the other coins.

所以这对我来说很容易，过去三年我就一直囤积枫叶币。

So that made it easy for me that I would just for the last three years been stocking up on maples.

我并没有改变我购买其他硬币的计划。

And I'm not changing what I bought for other coins.

比如我有普通圆形币，还有我自己收藏的六七种不同类型的硬币，我不会改变这些。

Like I have generic rounds and I don't know, six or seven different types of coins I have myself, I'm not gonna change it.

我不会担心它们，因为我会遇到一些情况，人们不会在意硬币的类型。

I'm not gonna worry about them because I will come into situations where people won't be concerned about what type of coin it is.

他们已经是老手了。

They're already veterans.

他们早就开始做这些事情了。

They've already been doing this stuff.

他们懂这个。

They understand it.

然后他们就说，嘿。

And they're like, hey.

只要上面写着一盎司，我就没问题。

Just as long as it says one twenty ounce, I'm good.

那我就给他们一个普通的硬币。

Then I'll give them a generic round.

如果下一个人说，你知道，我对这些东西不太了解。

And if the next person says, you know, I don't really know much about this stuff.

我只信任加拿大枫叶银币，因为它们是加拿大的法定货币，或者在美国的情况下，他们只信任美国鹰洋银币，那你最好准备一些那些。

I'm only comfortable with silver maples because they're the legal tender of Canada, or in the case of The United States, they're only comfortable with the silver eagle, then you better have some of those.

所以我非常感激过去几年，买枫叶银币比其他任何东西都容易。

And so I'm I'm very thankful that the last few years, it's been very easy to pick up maples than buying anything else.

所以当溢价回升，枫叶银币可能比其他硬币贵很多的时候，我可能会再次开始买一些其他硬币。

And so when the premiums go back up and maples are way more expensive perhaps than other coins, then I may I may start to buy some of the coins again.

但过去三年半我们很幸运能有这样的位置。

But we've been very fortunate to have that position for the last three three, three and a half years.

所以，我拿我的100盎司金条做了什么呢，我买了这些金条，然后发现，好吧，我目前的位置不对，我觉得我得先弄到硬币。

So what I what I did with my 100 ounce bars, I bought these bars, and I discovered, okay, I'm in the wrong spot at the moment and I needed to get coinage first in my opinion.

所以我把金条拿回了我朋友在本地开的店，就是我买它们的那家。

So I took the bars back to the my friend's shop local to where I live, where I got them.

这远在我来Sprat之前。

This is way prior to me being here at Sprat.

他收回了金条，然后我们买了硬币，我把硬币带回家了，到现在我还没找到机会再买回100盎司的金条。

And he took them back and we I bought coins and took those home and I haven't found my way to get back to billion a 100 ounce bars yet.

有道理。

Fair enough.

好的。

Okay.

我觉得这个问题也回答得很全面了。

So I feel like that really covered all bases of that question as well.

那我们继续下一个话题吧？

So why don't we move on?

这个问题会更具体地关于白银。

This one's going to be a little bit more specific to silver.

考虑到白银既是货币金属又是工业商品的双重角色，您如何看待可再生能源、电气化和全球制造业的趋势如何影响其相对于黄金的估值？

Given silver's dual role as both a monetary metal and an industrial commodity, how do you see trends in renewable energy, electrification and global manufacturing influencing its valuation relative to gold?

由于白银的商业属性和需求，未来白银的供应压力会非常大。

So because of the commercial aspect and demand of silver, you're going to have huge pressure on getting silver in the future.

而且，你知道，在所谓的自由市场体系里，供需法则会起作用，这意味着什么呢？

And, you know, what does that mean in a we'll use the word free market system where there's the laws of supply and demand.

我们知道，当权者做了很多操纵之类的事情，所以现在价格就是这样，举个例子。

And we know that the powers that be do a lot of manipulation and all that and hence where we are now for the price as an example.

但是，公司需要这些东西。

But there's Companies need this stuff.

电气化，你知道，他们想到处关闭化石燃料能源，然后推动一切都转向电力。

The electrification is a you know, they're they wanna shut down fossil fuel energy all over the place and and promote it all to go to electricity.

然后还有各地爆发的战争和战争的扩大，所有战争都需要大量的白银。

And then you have wars breaking out all over and the expansion of wars, which all warfare requires huge amounts of silver.

还有各种自动化正在被开发、制造和建设，你知道，很多工作岗位上的人会减少，取而代之的是更多的机器人。

You have all the other automation that's being generated and created and built that, you know, there would be less humans in all the different jobs and more robotics.

所有东西都会，你知道，想要用白银来做商业用途。

Everything is going to be, you know, wanting to come after silver for commercial use.

然后当然，随着人们开始，嗯，越来越多的人，我自己也遇到过，可能你也是，人们会打电话来说，你知道吗？

And then you have, of course, as people start to, well, more and more people that I've experienced and perhaps yourself as well is people are calling going, you know what?

我不再放心把金属放在银行的保险箱里了。

I'm not comfortable holding my metals at the safety deposit box at the bank anymore.

我不信任现在发生的事情，我觉得银行不再安全了。

I don't trust what's going on and I don't think the banks are safe anymore.

他们自己也开始不安，打电话给我们这样的公司说，我想把东西存放在Brink's。

They're getting antsy on their own and calling companies like us to say, I would like to have storage at Brink's.

所以，会有更多人觉醒，我觉得这正在慢慢发生，他们以前理解的金融体系，在他们生活中，已经不像过去那样可信了。

So, you're going to have more people waking up, which I think is happening a little bit, that the financial system as they understood it, you know, in their lives is not becoming as believable as it used to be.

你知道，美联储和我们政府的信誉每天都在被破坏，因为各国公共财政管理不善。

You know, the credibility of the Fed and our governments is being destroyed every day by the real mismanagement of the public purse of the countries.

所以，政府花钱就像喝醉的水手一样，结果我们的食品账单在美元计价下不断上涨，因为美元购买力下降，而且我们负债累累。

So, governments are spending like drunken sailors, and as a result, we're seeing our grocery bills going up and up and up in dollar terms because our dollar buys less and we're in debt beyond our eyeballs.

所以，那些多少关注这些事情的人开始把这些线索串联起来，说，嘿，你知道吗？

So, people that are following any of this stuff to any degree are starting to put these dots together in a line and say, Hey, you know what?

情况并没有好转。

This is not getting better.

政府层面的人根本不知道自己在做什么。

They don't know what they're doing at the government level.

他们只会说这样的话。

They're just saying things like this.

比如，我对加拿大银行的做法已经没有任何信心了。

Like, I don't have any confidence in what the Bank of Canada is doing anymore.

我对美联储的做法也没有信心了。

I don't have confidence in what the Fed's doing anymore.

他们开始寻找替代方案。

And they're starting to look for alternatives.

我觉得这在2026年1月很大程度上就是实际情况，这也是为什么他们那么狠地打压市场，因为当时有大量的人开始觉醒，心想：我不想再待在这个市场里了。

And I think that's what was going on to a large degree in January 2026, which is why they slapped the market down so hard because there was a big groundswell of people that were now starting to wake up and go, I don't want to be in this market anymore.

这一切都是假象。

This is all a facade.

然后他们就把市场砸下来，把所有人都压回去，让他们缩回自己的洞里、回到家里什么的，还说：哦不，金属波动太大，不安全，全是这些废话。

And then they hammered the market down to shove everybody down, back down their holes and back into their caves and homes and whatnot, say, oh no, metals are volatile and unsafe and all that nonsense.

所以我觉得未来需求会非常大，你知道，哪怕再多0.5%的人口觉醒想要金属，那零售层面金属就几乎卖光了。而且，你知道，这对那些没有金属的普通大众来说可不是好事。

So, I think that we're gonna have huge demands in the future as, you know, even one more half a percent of the population wake up and want metal, that means metal is almost sold out on the retail level, And that's, you know, that's not good for the public that don't have any.

嗯，我们甚至

Well, we even

今年早些时候就看到了，对吧？

saw that earlier this year, right?

白银的需求差不多翻了三倍，至少三倍。

Kind of went from the demand for silver tripled, tripled at least.

没人能买到银枫叶币、100盎司的银条，什么都买不到。

No one could get their hands on silver maples, 100 ounce bars, anything.

所以这真的会在感觉上像一周内就发生。

So it really does happen within what feels like a week.

对。

Yeah.

嗯，你知道，记得在一月份，就是一月最后一周的时候，如果那种情况再持续几周，我们开始担心还能从供应商那里拿到多少枫叶币，因为我们的需求已经超过了供应。

Well, there's, you know, remember in January, you know, going into the end last week of January, if that had continued on for another few weeks, you know, we were starting to wonder how many more maples we could get from from the suppliers, you know, and our demand was greater than what we could get.

那就意味着要配给枫叶币，或者我们就卖光了。

And that means rationing maples or or we're sold out.

而且这会是全行业普遍的情况。

And that's that would be with everybody across the board.

所以不需要太多需求，普通大众对此一无所知。

So it doesn't take very much, and the general public have no idea about this.

所以他们可能某天醒来就说，我觉得我需要买黄金和白银，然后他们打电话，或者谷歌搜索什么的，结果联系的所有地方都卖光了。

So, they just you know, they'll wake up one day and say, I guess I need to buy gold and silver and they phone, you know, they just Google it or whatever and everybody they call is sold out.

确实。

Exactly.

那时候船已经离岸了，你肯定不想在那种情况发生时靠近它。

That's when the ferry has left the dock you don't want to be anywhere near that situation when this happens.

从价格上看，因为需求太大，我们现在处于这种情况：有时候黄金会领涨，但在最后阶段，白银通常以三比一的比例跑赢黄金。

Price wise, because of all the demand, we're in this scenario that sometimes gold's gonna lead this perhaps upward, but in these last stages, silver typically outperforms gold to a three to one ratio.

对我来说，这其实不是表现的问题，真正重要的是你能用什么来交易和以物易物。

And it's not even about the performance really in my book, it's really what you can use and barter with.

所以，如果你想着“我要买白银，因为它会跑赢黄金”，那你还是以投资者的思维在考虑。

So, if you're thinking about, well, I'm gonna buy silver because it will outperform gold, you're still thinking as an investor.

这没问题，但是，你知道，当它真的达到三比一的表现时，你打算怎么办？

And that's okay, but, you know, what are you gonna do when it does its three to one performance?

你会卖掉白银换回货币吗？

Are you gonna sell silver to go back to currency?

比如，有人打电话来说，我想锁定收益，换回现金。

Like, you know, people call up, know, I wanna lock in my gains and go back to money.

我就说，你有没有意识到，你卖掉实物金属换回纸币，而纸币是没有价值的？

And I'm like, do you realize you're selling your physical metal to go back to paper currency has no value?

那怎么锁定你的收益呢？

How does that lock in your gains?

然后他们想了想，觉得你说得对。

And then they think about it and they're like, oh, I think you're right.

我说，如果你只是暂时这么做，然后想再买回来，那是个危险的游戏，但那是你自己的选择。

Now I said, If you're just doing it temporarily and then you want to buy back in again, that's a dangerous game, but that's yours to play.

但如果你想着，我就锁定收益，回到货币，然后突然市场爆发，金融系统出问题。

But if you're thinking about, Well, I'm just going to lock in my gains and go back to currency, and then all of a sudden the market does, you know, explode and the financial system has problems.

那你就只能拿着货币在场外，再也回不到金属了。

Now you're on the sideline in currency, now you can't get back into metal.

所以，很多分析师都说，如果你想交易金属，就买ETF。

So, there's many analysts out there that have said, you know, if you want to trade metal, buy the ETFs.

如果你想保值，就买实物。

If you want to, if you want to preserve your wealth by the physical.

对，确实是这样。

Well, exactly.

我们甚至遇到过客户。

We've even had clients.

我和客户讨论过很多次，对吧？

I've had that discussion with clients many a times, right?

如果你想交易，如果你想进出金属市场，实物金属其实不适合这个。

It's if you're looking to trade, if you're looking to get in and out of the metals, the physical side of it really isn't for that.

它不适合那些快速投资、快速转手，你会被溢价吃掉。

It isn't for those quick investments, those quick flips, you're going to get one, you're going get eaten on the premiums.

第二，它真的不是，我知道你说每个人都像投资者一样思考，但它也不是为了投资而设计的。

And two, it's just not really even what the, I know you said everyone's thinking like an investor, but it's not really what the investment is meant for at the same time.

实物金属首先是为了保值，这样当系统出现真正的问题时，你已经拥有财富，或者在你的控制之下，而且它在系统之外。

The physical is first and foremost for preservation of wealth so that when the system has a real problem, you already have wealth in your possession and or under your control and it's outside the system.

所以，不需要转换金属。

So, there's no conversion of metal necessary.

没错。

Exactly.

它本身就是钱。

It's already money.

所以，当你持有ETF时，你得先把它换回美元，才能去买金属或者买其他你想要的东西。

So, when you own an ETF, you have to be able to convert it back to dollars to be able to buy the metal or buy whatever you want.

而金属本身就是钱，你可以直接跟人交换，用黄金和白银来支付。

With metal, it is money and you could go and barter with people and pay for stuff in gold and silver.

人们会说，那不可能。

People say, Well, that's not possible.

其实可能。

It is possible.

我四年来一直在跟客户聊这个，据我所知，已经有人在各种情况下这么做了，虽然时灵时不灵。

I've been talking to clients for four years that I can think of that have already been doing this stuff, hit or miss in various situations.

这并不常见。

And it's not common.

你不可能去普通的杂货店，跟美国那边的店员说，用白银来换点日用品。

You're not going to go down to the normal grocery store and blah blahs and whoever in The States and offer silver for some groceries.

今天还不会发生这种事。

That's not going to happen today.

但你可以去一家小杂货店，比如菲律宾、亚洲、黎巴嫩或中东风格的店，进去跟他们聊几句，然后掏出一枚硬币，他们会说，行，我就用这个换你的杂货，因为他们懂银子和金子。

But you could go down to a nest egg grocery store, Filipino, Asian, Lebanese, Middle Eastern of some sort, and go in and chat to them a little bit and you pull out a coin and they'll say, yeah, I'll I'll sell you the groceries for that because they understand silver and gold.

其实，我在多伦多机场擦鞋的时候，我开玩笑地问那个师傅，你收不收银子付款？

In fact, I was getting my shoe shines at the airport in Toronto and I offered the guy as a fun thing, would you take silver for payment?

他说，收啊。

He's like, yeah.

嗯，我

Well, I

我就从口袋里掏出一枚。

mean I pull I pull one out of my pocket.

他说，天哪，你身上还真带着。

He's like, oh my god, you even have one on you.

我说，擦一次鞋用这个太值钱了，我只是想试试这个场景。

I said, it's too much value for one shoe shine, but I just wanted to sort of play the scenario.

他说，是的，我会那么做。

And he's like, yeah, I would do that.

对，没错。

Well, no, exactly.

它还是有作为交换工具的地位，对吧？

It still has a position as a barter tool, right?

它有价值，毫无疑问。

It has value, you know, no question.

所以，那是一个很长的漫谈，我觉得我们已经远远超出了我甚至记得的问题是什么。

So, that was a long ramble that I think we're way beyond what I even remember the question was.

所以，不管怎样，下一个问题。

So, anyway, next question.

所以，这是我们的最后一个问题。

So, this is our final question.

你今天在贵金属市场看到最引人注目的机会或风险在哪里，特别是考虑到矿山供应限制、投资需求和地缘政治不确定性？

Where are you seeing the most compelling opportunities or risks in the precious metal market today, particularly when considering mine supply constraint, investment demand and geopolitical uncertainty?

所以，购买实物金属是没有风险的。

So, don't see risk in purchasing physical metal.

好的。

Okay.

但我确实看到风险，再说一次，这只是我的看法和我看问题的方式，对很多人来说可能完全不同。

I do see risk in, and again, this is just my opinion and the way I look at it, that could be totally different for lots of different people.

但我确实看到购买矿商股票或者股市里的那些东西有风险。

But I do see risk in buying miners or stuff that's in the stock market and all that.

矿业板块，即使有巨大的爆发性上涨潜力，也能带来很大的收益，你知道，我。

The mining sector, even though there is great explosive moves potential and you can have great gains from it, know, I.

E。

E.

埃里克·斯普罗特多年来靠这些东西赚了大钱，这都是有据可查的，我对此毫无异议。

Eric Sprott has made a fortune in that stuff over the years, That's all documented and no argument from me on all that.

但如今，你知道，他的投资组合中只有2%到5%是矿业股票，而80亿美元是实物黄金和白银。

But today, you know, he's carrying two to 5% of his portfolio in mining stocks and 8,000,000,000 in physical gold and silver.

那他怎么看这个？

So where does he view that?

嗯，从他的配置比例来看，他认为矿业股票这个板块波动大、风险高，他准备把这些都当作风险敞口，因为他所有的财富都在实物上。

Well, just from his percentages, he views the the equities sector of mining to be volatile and risky, and he's prepared to write all that off because he has all of his wealth in physical.

他没有亏损。

He has no losses.

所以，我觉得债券市场是一场即将发生的灾难。

So, I think the bond market is a catastrophe waiting to happen.

我觉得持有现金也是一场即将发生的灾难。

I think holding currency is a catastrophe waiting to happen.

在股市里持有任何东西，除了——我在这方面完全不是专业人士，所以仅供参考——但我认为那里的风险比大多数人理解的要大得多。我不是在说日内交易者，我指的是普通加拿大人或美国人，他们随便买点东西然后持有一段时间。

Owning anything in the stock market other than and I'm not a professional in that regard at all, so take it with a grain of salt, but I think you have more risk there than what the vast majority of people understand and I'm not addressing the day traders here, I'm only addressing the average Canadian American that sort of buys whatever and sits and holds it for a while.

我觉得当系统崩溃时，这些人可能会被血洗，因为他们不会整天坐在电脑前做日内交易，在事情真正发生之前就撤出来。

I think those people are potentially going to get slaughtered when the system breaks because they're not in front of their computer doing day trades all day long and getting out before anything really happens.

所以，我觉得风险无处不在。

So, I see risk all over the planet.

我是说，我们现在从新闻里知道了，虽然主流媒体没怎么说太多，但日本债券市场正在崩溃。

I mean, we know now from news, and I don't think mainstream is saying too much, but the Japanese bond market is collapsing.

而且美国为了支撑日元，甚至通过买入欧洲欧元再去买日元来介入。

And to the extent that America is getting involved to prop up the yen via buying European Euros to then buy yen.

他们甚至不想直接用美元换日元，因为不想进一步打压日元。

They don't even want to do it American dollar to the yen because they don't want to punish the yen more.

哇。

Wow.

我不太明白这具体是怎么运作的，以及他们为什么要这么做，但我能理解讨论中的意思——情况已经糟糕到需要另一个国家介入，防止日本货币崩溃。

I don't exactly understand how that works and why they would do it, but I do understand the language of the discussion that it's so bad that another country's intervening so that Japan doesn't collapse their currency.

所以，我们已经到了那个临界点，事情变得如此不稳定，随时可能跌下悬崖。

So, we're at that tipping point where things are so volatile and ready to go off a cliff.

我不明白除了日内交易者，为什么还有人会留在市场里。

I don't understand why anyone's in the market other than a day trader.

好的。

Okay.

所以，到处都有风险。

So, there's risk everywhere.

并不是说没有风险，我想我得纠正一下自己。

It's not like there's no risk, I guess, I'm gonna correct myself.

我不会说买黄金和白银没有风险。

I won't say there's no risk on metal, on buying gold and silver.

你可以避免交易对手风险，避免货币贬值，避免所有即将到来的糟糕情况，但确实有一个小风险，就是你以某个价格买入黄金或白银，而它会有上下波动的周期。

You avoid the counterparty risk, you avoid the devaluation of the currencies and you avoid all of the really nasty stuff that's going to come, but there is the little risk that you buy gold or silver at X amount of dollars and it does have cycles going up and down.

所以这就是为什么在回调时买入很重要，不要像一月份那样在价格高位时追买。

And so that's why it's important to sort of buy on dips and don't try and buy when it's moving at a high like people did in January.

但那是事后诸葛亮。

But that's hindsight.

回头看的时候，谁都能做到。

Everyone can do that when they look backwards.

所以，如果你需要变现一些现金来支付什么，靠资产生活，而你在卖出黄金或白银的时候，理论上价格可能比你买入时低，所以从账面上看，你确实会有亏损。

So, if you had to raise some cash to pay for something, you're living off of your assets and at the time that you sell gold or silver, in theory, it could be lower in price than what you paid for it, so technically you would have a loss there on paper.

但如果你一路慢慢买入，做好准备，你知道，那风险很小，而且你只卖出刚好需要的钱。

But if you're nibbling along the way and preparing, you know, that's a minimal risk and you're only also selling exactly what you need to raise money for.

所以，如果你有一笔意外账单是5美元，你只卖5美元的金属，而你手里有几百美元的金属，在我看来，这根本不是问题。

So, if you're you have an unforeseen bill that's $5, you're only selling $5 worth of metal and you've had, you know, a couple $100 worth of metal, that's in my opinion, you know, a non issue.

但这种情况非常少见。

But that is, you know, that is a very small scenario.

我想另一种情况是，如果发生入室盗窃，或者有人偷了、弄丢了，不管怎样，你口袋里有一枚金币，你倒裤子的时候金币掉地上了之类的。

I guess the other scenario is if there's a break in or if somebody steals it, loses it, whatever the case is, you have a gold coin in your pocket and you empty your trousers and the coin falls out on the ground or whatever.

所以，你知道，有这类情况，但如果你不跟别人说这些事，没人知道你有，也没人知道放在哪里，你知道，有人把东西存在Brink's，有人存在各种地方，那你晚上就能睡得很安稳，因为那里的风险比放在银行保险箱小得多，因为我们确定银行会关门。

So, you know, there's those kinds of scenarios, but if you don't talk about this stuff and nobody knows you have it and nobody knows where it is, you know, people store stuff at Brink's, people store stuff in all different places, then you know, you can sleep pretty well at night because the risk there is far less than holding metal at a safety deposit box because we know definitively the banks will close.

而银行关门时，你的保险箱就用不了了。

And when they do, your deposit box is no longer available to you.

你知道，你会失去它。

You know, you'll lose it.

而且，去查一下银行保险箱的条款吧。

And just check the wordings on the bank, save to deposit box.

银行对里面的东西不负责。

The bank is not responsible for the contents.

这个我们已经说过好几次了。

We've talked about that several times.

所以，我就是这么看的。

So, that's how I view it.

现在说到日内交易，对做这个的人来说挺好的。

Now, day trading, great for those that do it.

对于不太懂行的人，就慢慢买点银和金，需要的时候买，手里持有的量控制在你不介意损失的范围，别让钱都困在系统里。

For people that are not sophisticated, nibble away and buy silver and gold if needed and hold as much there as you don't want to lose with the money in the system.

在银行外面留点现金，比如一万、五千，看你的情况，放在抽屉里、保险柜里都行，这样万一系统周一崩了，你手里还有现金能马上用。

Have some cash outside the bank, you know, literally like 10 ks, 5 ks, whatever the scenario is for you in cash, in a drawer, in a gun safe, whatever, so that if the system does shut down on Monday, you've got immediate cash to use stuff with.

如果系统一直坏下去，那几周或一两个月内，银和金就会接管。

And then if it stays broken, then eventually, within weeks or a month or two, silver and gold will take over.

所以，这就是我对那个问题的回答。

So, that's my answer to that question.

哇，这个回答真是够全面的，我得承认。

Well, it was a fully loaded answer, I'll give you that.

那这样，我今天的问题就都问完了。

So that does sum up the questions I have today.

老规矩，还是想请你给我们一个最方便的联系方式，电话和邮箱都行。

Once again, as I always ask you to do, can you please give the best way to contact yourself both via phone and email?

没问题。

Sure thing.

谢谢。

Thanks.

如果有需要更多帮助的朋友，可以拨打我们网站上的免费电话，号码是 +1 (888) 861-0775。

So anybody that needs additional help, can call the toll free number on our website, +1 (888) 861-0775.

我的分机号是230，你也可以发邮件到 death of the dollar sprottmoney dot com。

My extension is 230 and you can email me at death of the dollar sprottmoney dot com.

那太好了。

Well, perfect.

谢谢你，安德鲁，再次感谢，我们很快会再请你上节目。

Thank you, Andrew, once again, and we will have you on shortly.

好的。

All right.

谢谢你，凯伦。

Thank you, Kellen.

祝你今天愉快。

Have a good day.

你也是。

Likewise.