沃伦·巴菲特在奥马哈 2026年3月31日

我的意思是，你面对的都是非常聪明、非常精明的人。

I mean, so you've got very smart people, very sophisticated people.

美元看起来，你知道，好像什么都无法撼动它。

The American dollar looks, you know, like nothing could happen to it.

我看不出它会出什么问题。

I don't see how anything could happen to it.

但如果真的出了问题，我可不想承担美联储的职责。

But if it does happen to it, I I would I would I wouldn't want the responsibility of running the Fed.

但是什么

But what

我的意思是，世界将依赖它继续运作。

I mean, the the world will be dependent on it doing it.

上一次是在1978年2月，当时国会认为他们比财政部长更懂这些，结果在第一次否决TARP时把事情搞得一团糟。

And last time in 02/1978, you had congress that essentially felt they knew more about it than than, you know, secretary treasury and and so they really gum things up when they when they turned down TARP the first time.

我的意思是，现在人们更好地理解了美联储可以印钞票。

And I mean, it was I think now, people better understand what the the Fed can print money.

美联储可以印钞。

The Fed can print money,

而且我们有一位总统，特朗普总统，他希望美联储降息。

and and we have a president, president Trump, who would like to see the Fed cut rates.

如果你现在在那个位置，你会降息吗？

Would you cut rates if you were there right now?

我不知道如果我在那里会怎么做。

I don't know what what I do there.

我的意思是，我认为杰伊·鲍威尔在疫情爆发时，2020年3月采取了行动，我认为如果他推迟两三个星期，后果将不堪设想。

I mean, I I I think that Jay Powell in when the epidemic broke out I think he acted in March 2020 and I think if he had waited two or three weeks it would have been a disaster.

一旦多米诺骨牌开始倒下，它们就会迅速接连倒下，而这条防线比任何人想象的都要短，倒下的速度也更快，我认为他做得完全正确，而且比沃尔克做得还要果断。

Once the dominoes start toppling they just start toppling and and and that line is shorter than anybody thinks and it topples faster and and and I think he did exactly the right thing and he he did it even stronger than than Volker did.

你知道，我的意思是，他和沃尔克是我心目中的美联储英雄。

You know, I mean, he he he and Volker are my heroes at the Fed.

真的吗？

Did

他们把利率维持过低的时间太长了吗？

they keep rates low for for too long?

我的意思是，他们不担心通胀，因为他们说通胀是暂时的？

I mean, I think that's as they didn't worry about inflation as they said it was going to be transitory?

因为我觉得就连鲍威尔自己也说过，他可能希望早点加息。

Because I I I I think even Powell himself said that he might wish he turned it sooner.

嗯，我希望他们设定零通胀目标。

Well, I I wish they had a zero inflation target.

对。

Right.

但一旦你开始说要容忍2%的通胀，时间一长，累积效应就会非常显著。

But, I mean, once you start saying you're gonna tolerate 2%, that compounds pretty dramatically over time.

你实际上是在告诉人们，如果你的资金收益低于2%，那你就相当于在倒退。

And you're you're saying to people if you're getting less than 2% on your money, you're going backwards.

而且如果你要缴税，你可能还要为这2%的收益缴税，我的意思是，我不喜欢这个目标。

And actually if you pay tax you may pay tax on the 2%, you know, I mean it I I don't like I don't like that particular goal.

但是

But

所以，你可能更担心通货膨胀。

So inflation is maybe what you'd be more concerned about.

我的意思是，这正是格林斯潘

I mean, that that's what Greenspan

艾伦·格林斯潘一直这么说。

Alan Greenspan always said.

是的

Yeah.

我会关注通货膨胀。

I would be I would care about inflation.

我真正关心的是银行的稳定性。

I would compare what I really would care about is is the stability of the banks.

是的

Yeah.

我的意思是，银行系统在某种意义上非常强大，但在其他方面又非常脆弱。

I mean, it it the banking system is in some sense is very strong and other senses very fragile.

我的意思是，摩根大通在最近几年的年度报告中提到，每天的业务量达到一万亿美元。

I mean, JPMorgan in the last couple of annual reports reported doing 10,000,000,000,000 of business per day.

这是一项无担保的政策。

Now that's an unsecured policy.

他们知道自己在做什么，相信我。

Now they know what they're doing, believe me.

我的意思是，没有人比JV更聪明了，但我在2008年期间并不希望那样。

I mean, there's nobody smarter than JV and and but I don't want I I didn't want during the the, 2008 period.

我不希望有任何无担保的东西在外面过夜。

I didn't want anything unsecured, you know, out there for a day.

我的意思是，谁能料到呢？

I mean, who knew?

没人能做好，你知道的。

Nobody was any good, you know.

我的意思是，世界非常互联，每个人都恐慌了。

I mean, it it the world is very interconnected and and and everybody panics.

我的意思是，你知道，他们可能说他们不会，但你可以打电话给最大的投资银行，即使情况足够糟糕，他们也不接电话。

I mean, it it, you know, they may say they don't, but you can call the biggest investment banking firms and they don't and they say, well, they don't answer the phone even if if things get bad enough.

如果他们接了电话，你知道，他们会说十点买入，二十点卖出，以实际情况为准。

And if they do answer the phone, you know, they say ten ten bid, 20 offered subject.

是的。

Yeah.

乔会谈到你提到的那一天，那天道琼斯指数下跌了21%。

And Joe will talk about that day that you mentioned in where where the Dow was down 21%.

我认为当时他自己也这么说。

I think he was at that point, he he said it himself.

他躲在办公桌底下，应付不断打进来的电话。

He was hiding under his desk for the calls that were coming in.

是的。

Yeah.

而且当流动性消失时，它就会彻底消失。

And and because when liquidity disappears, it disappears.

百分比。

Percent.

那是在某一天，情况持续恶化。

And that was someday, and it just kept coming.

大多数做市商公司，原本负责维持市场稳定，却都破产了。

And most of the specialist firms, which then countered for more in terms of the the, stability of the markets, they were they were broke.

我的记忆中，他们跑去找银行，说：别抽贷，你知道的，但那些本该维持市场的机构，人们却不断压价，导致价差不断扩大。

I mean, I as I remember, they they they went around to their banks and said, just don't pull the loans, you know, but but but they they people they were supposed to keep making the markets, but people just kept hitting the bid and and it could widen the spread out.

现在有了熔断机制等各种措施。

You got circuit breakers now, all kinds of things.

但当人们感到恐惧时，他们就是会害怕。

But when people are scared, they're scared.

如果你在拥挤的剧院里大喊‘着火了’，每个人还是会拼命逃跑。

And people if you yell fire in a crowded theater, Everybody runs still.

抢先冲到门口还是值得的。

It it still pays to beat people to the door.

你知道的。

You know?

你知道的。

You know?

我经常旅行，所以我会站在后面让大家保持冷静，你知道的，但这只是因为我跑不快。

And and I get traveled, you know, so I I will I will stand back there and say everybody to stay calm, you know, but that's because I can't run fast.

另一方面，当人们回到剧院时，他们是一人一人地进来。

On the other hand, when people come back into the theater, they come in one at a time.

他们知道没必要争抢，但人们还是会恐慌。

They know they don't have to get into it, but but people panic.

他们恐慌。

They panic.

但我们现在应该担心的是银行体系，还是影子银行体系，这个

But but is it the banking system we should be concerned about right now, or is it the shadow banking system, the

这是整个银行体系中的私人信贷，因为它们彼此相互影响，一个问题可能会蔓延到另一个问题，而你看到了2008年发生了什么。

It's private credit at this all parts of the banking system because they all affect each other and the troubles from one can spread over to another and, well, you saw what happened, I mean, in in 2008.

但我不想让人觉得我是在评论当前私人信贷领域正在发生的事情。

But but at risk of potentially I I don't want people to say that you are commenting on what's happening in the private credit situation right now.

你对当前的私人信贷状况怎么看？

What do you think of the private credit situation right now?

那里是否存在足够令人担忧的问题，让你担心可能引发连锁反应？

Are there enough concerning issues there that you worry that it could cause a contagion?

我不确定我知道什么。

I I I don't think I know.

好吧。

Okay.

我不认为我知道具体是什么，但我因此想为任何情况做好准备。

Don't I I do not think I know what but I therefore, I wanna be prepared for anything.

因此，我们总会保留一些现金。

And therefore, we will always have we'll always have cash around.

我们还会持有国库券。

And we'll have treasury bills.

我们不会持有货币市场基金。

We won't have money market funds.

2008年的时候我们就没有它们。

We didn't have them in 2008.

2008年的时候我们也不会持有商业票据。

We won't have commercial paper in 2008.

只有一样东西是法定货币。

There's just one thing that's legal tender.

你知道，如果你持有国库券，而我们清楚我们并不持有长期的国库债券。

And, you know, if you own treasury bills and we have known we don't own treasury bonds way out.

我的意思是，每周一财政部都必须出售国库券，只要他们得卖出去数十亿的国库券，他们就不能印钱来完成这件事。

I mean, then but every Monday the treasury has to sell bills and so long as they gotta sell, you know, x billions worth of bills, I mean, they can't have a they can print some money to do it.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我会去做。

And I'll do it.

但为了更明确一点，你并不了解外面正在发生什么。

But just to put a fine point on it, you don't think you know what's happening out there.

你们手头有高达3500亿美元的巨额现金储备。

You've had this huge cash ward north of $350,000,000,000.

他们只是在等待时机。

It's just they're waiting for any time.

你并不是真的认为有什么大事即将发生。

It's not that you necessarily think that there's something on the horizon.

只是时间越拖越久。

It's just the longer time goes.

我总是希望拥有它，是的。

I always wanna have Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

我从不因为别人认为市场会上涨就去买任何东西。

And and and I never want to buy anything just because people think the market is going up.

对。

Yeah.

我的意思是，人们以为自己知道市场会怎么走，这简直太疯狂了。

I mean, the idea that people think they know what the market is going to do is just crazy.

我的意思是，他们居然会向全世界大声宣称自己真的知道些什么。

I mean, it the idea that that they would shout out to the world, you know, that something they really knew.

这就像说，如果他们在自家后院发现了黄金，就会上电视说：‘看，我家后院有黄金。’

That's like saying if they had gold found gold in their backyard, they'd they'd come on television and say, here's where the gold is in my backyard.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

他们其实是在推销什么东西。

They they they they they're they're selling something.

你的意思是，他们希望别人跟着行动？

They want other people to follow, you mean?

嗯，他们知道存在某种

Well, they know that there's a certain

我的意思是，美国和其他地区确实有一些人，但你已经看到他们有多喜欢赌博了。

I mean, there's people in The United States and other parts of the world, but you've seen how much they like to gamble.

嗯。

Mhmm.

而且，基本上，你拥有一个被称为美国经济体系的宏伟大教堂。

And, basically, you have this incredible cathedral called the American Economic System.

没人见过这样的东西。

Nobody's seen anything like it.

我的意思是，它是所有大教堂中最宏伟的，但旁边却附着着一个赌场，人们可以自由地在两者之间来回穿梭。

I mean, it's the cathedral of all cathedrals, but attached to it is a casino, and people can walk back and forth between the two.

相信我，人们就是喜欢赌博。

And believe me, people like to gamble.

我的意思是，他们明知道赔率对自己不利，还是去赌博。

I mean, they gamble with the odds against them.

在市场中，如果他们真的懂行，其实那并不算赌博。

In the market, they can actually gamble if they well, they really aren't gambling if they do it.

但我的意思是，如果他们只是买进一只股票并持有五十年，只要他们选对了一组股票，结果肯定会不错。

But I mean, if they just buy a stock and sit for fifty years, they they if they got a a group of them, they're gonna do fine.

我的意思是，美国的资本主义体系是有效的，而对抗庄家则行不通。

I mean, the American capitalism system works, and betting against the house does not work.

我的意思是，这其实非常简单。

I mean, it's it's just it's so simple.

但人们并不喜欢赌博。

But people don't like to gamble.

我的意思是，当当

I mean, I I When when

你说的赌博，是指什么？

you say gamble, are you talking?

好的。

Okay.

我1952年的蜜月，是的。

My honeymoon in 1952 Yeah.

我们经过了洛杉矶，我借了我姑姑爱丽丝的车，一路开车，当时还经过了拉斯维加斯。

We went through Los Susie and I, just got my aunt Alice's car, and we drove, and and we went through Las Vegas at the time.

我看到那些穿着讲究的人，他们乘坐的是非喷气式飞机。

And I watched all these people who were dressed well, and they'd they'd flown non jets.

他们飞了几个小时，花了很多钱，只为来拉一下老虎机的把手，或者做些在数学上毫无意义的事。

They'd flown, you know, for many hours, spent much money and everything else to go and pull handles, you know, or do something that was mathematically dumb.

我当时想，这真是个充满机遇的国度。

And I thought this is the land of opportunity.

是的。

Yeah.

我告诉他们，我们一定会发财。

I I I told them we were gonna get rich.

我的意思是，怎么会有智商正常的人争先恐后地去做这些愚蠢的事，而这些事还催生了整个产业？现在这些行为已经合法化了，而且开放得越多，就越多人喜欢参与。

I mean, how can you have people who have perfectly decent IQs rushing to do dumb things, which they do, and industries build on it, now it's become legalized, and the the the more they open it up, the more people like to do it.

他们喜欢在股票市场上这么做，实际上在股票市场里，至少如果他们能耐心持有，就拥有有利的期望值。

They like to do it in the stock market, and actually in the stock market, at least they got they got a favorable expectancy if they just sit tight.

但他们当然不会耐心持有，尤其是那些赌徒。

But they don't sit tight, of course, if they if they're gamblers.

所以你不支持预测市场、合法化的体育博彩，甚至也不支持日内交易？

So you're not a fan of prediction markets, legalized sports gambling, even of day trading?

这基本上就是你的意思吗？

Is that basically what you're saying?

嗯，我认为一旦开放，就不可能再阻止了。

Well, I I don't think I don't think you can stop it once you open it up.

当各州发现 payouts 大约是每美元回报六毛钱左右，或者其他类似的比例时——不同州有不同的系统。

And and once the states found out I think it paid out 60¢ on the dollar or something like that, whatever they may have, different systems for different states.

我小时候，只有一个州是合法的，而我们已经存在了几百年，但一旦人们看到这种模式有利可图，其他地方就开始效仿，当然富人特别喜欢，因为他们不用掏钱。

It was one state it was legal in when I was a kid, and and we've been around for hundreds of years, but then once people saw how that was working, they other places took it up, and of course rich people love it because they don't have to pay.

我的意思是，州政府从那些真正在乎每一分钱的人身上赚钱，这确实如此。

I mean, you know, to the extent that they that the states raise money from people who that where the dollar really means something to them Yeah.

实际上减轻了我或其他富人的税收负担。

Actually relieves the taxes on me or other rich people.

我的意思是，这并不是直接的。

I mean, it it's not direct.

我的意思是，但这是净效应。

I mean, but it's it's the net effect.

所以我不喜欢那些让人当傻瓜的事情。

So I I don't like things that make a sucker out of people.

是的。

Yeah.

我不喜欢这些事情。

I I don't like them.

尤其是当政府支持这些行为时，我更不喜欢。

I particularly don't like them when the government sponsors them.

我不认为政府应该把民众当傻瓜，我认为政府的职能不是去欺骗人民。

I don't think the government should play its I don't think the function of the government is to play its people for suckers.

是的。

Yeah.

我爸爸一直说，彩票是对傻瓜征的税，赌博也是一样。

My my dad has always said, the lottery is a tax on the stupid gambling, same day.

这是一种对……的税收。

It's a it's a tax on yeah.

这是对愚蠢的征税。

It's a tax on stupidity.

是的。

Yeah.

但我并不生那些愚蠢的人的气。

But it's it's it's but I'm not mad at the people that are stupid.

我生气的是，不。

I'm mad at the No.

我真的不生气。

I really am not.

我的意思是，如果你是人类，在某种程度上，你也没办法控制自己。

I mean, you can't help it if you're, you know, to some extent if you're human beings.

我的意思是，人类天生就是这样，某种意义上这种倾向已经根植于人性之中。

I mean, you're you're you're geared that way when somehow, you know, it's developed within the humans.

我不喜欢的是，人民选举出来的政府竟然靠这种行为来赚钱。

I don't like it when the government that they elect decides they're going to profit off that sort of activity.

是的。

Yeah.

我特别觉得，这简直太犬儒了。

I particularly I just I I I I think it's kinda cynical.

我不认为政府应该这么犬儒。

I I don't think I don't think you should have a cynical government.

我的意思是，这

I mean, it's

沃伦，让我换个话题，问问你对中东当前发生的事情有什么看法。

Warren, let me let me shift gears and ask a little bit about what you think that is happening that's happening about what's happening in The Middle East right now.

发生什么事了？

What's happening?

什么？

What?

中东发生了什么？

What's happening in The Middle East?

哦。

Oh.

我们可以从很多角度来谈，但不如先谈谈这对原油和能源意味着什么？

There's a lot of ways we could go with this, but why don't we start with just what it means for crude oil and energy in particular?

伯克希尔拥有一家公用事业公司。

Berkshire owns a utility company.

这些价格上涨意味着什么？

What do these higher prices mean?

嗯，这意味着我们持有的两个石油头寸——雪佛龙和西方石油公司。

Well, it it means the two oil positions we have, Chevron and and and Occidental Yeah.

涨得很多，但这并不意味着我能随意预测接下来会发生什么。

Go up a lot, but but that doesn't mean I can go around predicting what will happen next.

我不知道那里明天会发生什么。

I don't know what's gonna happen tomorrow over there.

是的。

Yeah.

你长期以来一直参与核能倡议，我想你至今仍在资助它，而且我知道你慈善事业的首要任务一直是核问题。

You for a long time were involved with the nuclear initiative, I think still are funding that, and I know your very first priority in philanthropy was the nuclear problem.

我认为这就是问题所在。

I think it's the problem.

我觉得，嗯，我这么表达吧。

I think I think it's well, I'll put it this way.

当我上小学的时候，他们告诉我太阳将在四十五亿年后熄灭。

When I was when I went to school, grammar school, they told me the sun was going to burn out in four and a half billion years.

我对此持相当超然的态度。

I took that pretty philosophically.

我的意思是，我得应对这个问题，而现在你有九个国家拥有核武器，包括那个朝鲜领导人。

I mean, I gotta handle that, and now you've got nine countries including, you know, the guy in North Korea.

我的意思是，总会有事情发生，当年只有两个国家时我们就已经非常担忧了，那时我们有非常理智的领导人，比如肯尼迪和赫鲁晓夫，你明白吗？你面对的不是不稳定的人，而且当时舰船都调头了，但人们在只有两个国家时就已经躲到桌子下面了。

I mean, there will be something happen, and we worried enormously about it when there were two, and we had perfectly we had really pretty sane leaders in in Kennedy and Khrushchev, you know, I mean, it you were not dealing with unstable people or anything like that, And, you know, the ships turned around, but they're the but people were hiding under their desk with two.

我的意思是，想想看，朝鲜拥有核武器，而伊朗又想获得核武器，你会有什么感受？

I mean, just think how you feel with North Korea having it and Iran wanting to get it.

我的意思是，这确实是个问题，而我对此没有答案。

I mean, it it is and I don't have an answer for that.

我的意思是，我们在1938年或1939年做的是对的。

I mean, we did the right thing in 1938 even or 1939.

你可以去网上查，到处都能找到。

You can go look at it's all over the Internet.

有史以来最重要的那封信。

The most important letter ever written.

而利奥·西拉德无法把信息传达出去，他是一位著名的核物理学家。

And and, Leo Szilard could not get the message to he was a famous nuclear physicist.

太棒了。

Terrific one.

也很有趣。

Very funny too.

他无法把信送到罗斯福手中，但他知道如果爱因斯坦签名，信就一定能送到，最终他成功让爱因斯坦签了名。

And he he couldn't get the message to Roosevelt, but he knew if Einstein signed the letter that it would get there, and he finally got Einstein to sign the letter.

这封信写成时，距离德国入侵波兰还差一个月。

And that letter was a month before the Germans started rolling into Poland.

我觉得罗斯福对核武器的理解，跟我现在一样，根本谈不上透彻。

And and I don't think Roosevelt understood u two thirty five any better than I do.

我的意思是，你知道，但他知道只要爱因斯坦签了名，就非得采取行动不可。

I mean, you know, but he knew if Einstein signed it, he better do something.

有趣的是，他写这封信是因为担心德国人先得到它，但最终这武器却被用在了日本人身上，而我们至今还没学会如何与它共存。

And the funny thing is, of course, he was doing it because he was worried about the Germans getting it and and and, it was actually used on the Japanese, but it it it we and we haven't learned to live with it.

从那时起，我们已经过去了八十年。

Now we've been we've gone eighty years since then.

我们已经多次险些出事。

We've had a lot of close calls.

我的意思是，我们有过一些训练录像，其中一段差点让总统采取行动。

I mean, we've had training tapes, one in there that that almost got the president to do something.

他们有过这些情况，我的意思是，地球的预期寿命现在已经不可能达到五百年了，而我小时候它还有四十五亿年，我们不得不这么做。

They've had them I mean, there is no way that the planet has an expectancy of five hundred years now when it was four and a half billion when I was a kid, and we had to do it.

我可不是在骗人。

I'm not fooling anybody.

我父亲在国会时，他会投赞成票，我的意思是，每个人在DJ日都欢欣鼓舞。

My dad was in congress, he would have voted for I mean, everybody rejoiced on DJ Day.

你知道，我的意思是，但这事根本没法逆转。

You know, I mean it it it it but there was no way we could undo it.

但我觉得现在的问题是，妮基·黑利刚才在你之前上了《早安，美国》，她说总统应该立即去伊朗搜寻浓缩铀。

But I I think the question becomes today, Nikki Haley was just on Squawk Box right before you, and she was saying she thinks the president should go in and find the enriched uranium in Iran right now.

这是一个有争议的立场。

And that's a controversial position.

这确实是一个轮廓，但我无论如何都会支持。

It It's a contour but I I I would be I I would be for one way or another.

如果我是美国总统，我并不想当美国总统。

If I were the president of The United States, I don't wanna be president The United States.

我不想要这些。

I don't want them.

抱歉。

Sorry.

我曾经问过一位总统。

I I, I one time asked one president.

我说，如果苏联已经发射了导弹，它们已经在空中，而我们的政策是相互确保摧毁，你会不会命令战略空军司令部释放我们的导弹？你知道，这只会杀死数以百万计的人，让本已严重污染的大气更加恶化，谁知道接下来会发生什么。

I said, you know, if if the Soviets had launched, so they already were in the air and our policy was mutually assured destruction, would you have told Strategic Air Command, unleash ours, knowing that it wasn't going to, I mean, it was gonna just kill millions and millions and millions more people and add to a super polluted atmosphere that who knows what was gonna happen.

我的意思是，当时的回答是什么？

I mean, it and now we have What was the answer?

答案是，这位总统说，我每天都会思考这个问题。

The answer well, the the this president said, he said, I thought about that every day.

因为有些重大的情况会在午夜出现，是的。

Because some major shows up at midnight Yeah.

然后说：我们有不可辩驳的证据，这并不是北极上空的鹅群。

And says, we have incontrovertible this is not this is not geese above the North Pole.

这也不是误放的训练录像。

This is not a training tape that got put in by mistake.

我们知道它们已经在空中了，总统先生，你只有十分钟时间做决定。

We know they're in the air, and you've got ten minutes to make a decision, mister president.

我该让扎克怎么做？

What do I tell Zach to do?

我们是否要发射我们的导弹？

Do we unleash ours?

我曾经在扎克的顾问委员会任职，你可能不信，但那是出于政治目的——我自然会安排人进去，因为他们总在寻求更多资金，他们就这么想的，我也不能怪他们。

And, I used to be on the Zach advisory board, believe it or not, the the, but that was for political purposes as I put people on naturally because they're always looking for more money and they just figured it and I don't blame them.

但总统是怎么说的？

But what did the president say?

他的回答是什么？

What was his answer?

他说什么？

What he?

他说，我每天都思考这个问题。

Said, I thought about it every day.

在我任职期间，他就是下一任总统。

During the time I was in office, he was the next president.

但他并没有说明他实际做了什么。

But did not give an answer on what he actually did.

他说，我认为答案是肯定的。

He said, I think the answer is yes.

我当时告诉他要这么做。

I was telling him to do it.

这就是美利坚合众国的政策。

That is the policy of The United States Of America.

对。

Yeah.

那如果您现在是总统，或者您现在在给总统提建议，您会

So if you were the president today or if you were advising the president today, what would

如何看待去打击伊朗的浓缩铀项目这件事？

you say about going after the enriched uranium in Iran?

我会说，无论如何，在未来一百年里——也可能是两百年，谁都说不准——但总有一天会发生什么事，导致这些浓缩铀被投入使用，而我们现在没法处置那些已经存在的核材料。

I would say that one way or another, in the next hundred years, maybe it's two hundred years, who knows, but one way or another something will happen that causes it to be used and we can't take what's out there now.

而且如果你觉得苏联和我们当时的处境很危险——赫鲁晓夫是个绝对理性的人，肯尼迪大概也是——那你等着瞧吧，等我们要对付的是朝鲜那个连发型都要批判的家伙的时候，情况会变成什么样。

And if you thought it was dangerous for the Soviets and us, Khrushchev was a perfectly rational guy, probably Kennedy, just wait till we have wait till we're dealing with, you know, the guy in North Korea that criticizes haircut or something.

我的意思是，或者说，最危险的情况其实是：手握核按钮的人本身已经命不久矣，或是正面临天大的难堪，如果你把人逼到走投无路的境地，那就糟了。

I mean or or I would say the most dangerous thing is actually somebody that's got their hand on the switch who is dying themselves or is facing enormous embarrassment if you're somebody go away If with you're cornered.

对，要是你被逼得走投无路了的话。

Yeah, if you're cornered.

没错。

Yeah.

所以这仍然属于最重要且

So that still rises to the level of one of the most important and

确实是。

It is.

是的。

Yeah.

我只是不知道答案是什么，但我确实知道，如果伊朗拥有了核武器，情况会比他们没有核武器时更加困难。

It's just that I don't know the answer for it, but I do know that it'll be more difficult if Iran has the bomb than if they don't.

沃伦，我

Warren, I'm

我要再换个话题。

gonna shift topics again.

自2006年你开始捐赠以来，你已经捐出了近600亿美元。

You have given away almost $60,000,000,000 since 2006 when you first started giving money away.

其中大部分都捐给了比尔·盖茨基金会。

The bulk of that has gone to the Bill Gates Foundation.

你对Epstein档案中所有涉及比尔·盖茨的邮件有什么看法？

What have you thought about all the emails in the Epstein files related to Bill Gates?

我不会具体说我对这些与比尔·盖茨有关的邮件有什么想法，但我想说的是，人类的脆弱程度让我感到震惊。

Well I won't say what I thought about them particularly related to Bill Gates but I would say it's astounded me how human people are.

你看看这个人，是个有前科的骗子，一个轰动一时的骗子，他居然能拉拢那么多人，我是说，不管他是不是找到了他们的弱点。

Here you had a guy that was a convicted guy, a sensational con man, and the percentage of people that he knocked off, I mean, whether it was he found their weakness.

可能是性，可能是权力，也可能是什么别的东西，我真的不明白怎么有人能办到这种事。

It might be sex, it might be power, it might be it might be, and I don't see how anybody could have pulled that off.

然后，当然，所有这些大人物都以为，等他死了之后，他们之前撒过的谎就能被掩盖过去，但你知道，

And then, and of course, all these figures think that it's going when he dies that, you know, they've they've they've basically lied about it before, but I mean, you know,

是指他们隐瞒了与Epstein的关联吗？

Lied about their associations with Epstein, mean?

嗯，我知道，他们总能找到各种理由来为自己开脱，但现在这一切都被掀开了，而且说实话，我很高兴他没有在港口结束生命，我是说，或者我并没有住在纽约。

Well, I

我是说，我很高兴他没有在港口结束生命，我是说，或者我并没有住在纽约。

mean, you know, they've rationalized it one way or another, but and now it's all getting opened up, and of course I'm just I'm so happy the guy didn't that he didn't stop in all the harbor, I mean, or or that I I didn't live in New York.

如果我住在纽约，参加某个派对时，我可能也会遇到那种场合，人们总是要求拍照，我通常都会照做，因为我习惯了和学生们拍这种搞笑照片——比如偷某人的钱包，或者向某个女人求婚之类的，没错。

If I lived in New York, at some party I would have been at some damn thing, and where people always are asking to take a picture, and I usually do I'm so used to doing it with students, always do these gag pictures where I'm picking some guy's pocket or proposing to some woman or some damn thing, and and Yeah.

幸好我从未靠近过那个人，而且我在2003年就读过《名利场》上的那篇文章。

I Thank heavens I I I never came near the guy, and I had read the article in in Vanity Fair in in 2003.

所以，

So I

那篇报道详细描述了他是个多么神秘而古怪的人物。

The one that lay that laid out who what a mysterious and strange figure he was.

从一个担心诽谤诉讼的人的角度来看，那篇文章就是这样写的。

It it was as far as somebody who's worried about libel suits goes.

确实把他描绘成了一个骗子。

Well, made him sound like a fraud for sure.

我觉得是的。

I think that Yeah.

我读过那篇文章。

I've read that article.

很奇怪的骗局

Was weird con

有趣的是，你知道，他在伯克希尔拿到了一个初创项目，是的。

and the the interesting thing is, you know, he got he got a start up at Berkshire Yeah.

他们认识他。

And and they knew him.

他们知道他在各种事情上骗了他。

They they knew he lied to him on all kinds of things.

艾斯·格林伯格是我的好朋友。

And Ace Greenberg was a good friend of mine.

那时候可能是吉米·凯恩在实际管理公司，我不太确定。

Well Jimmy Cain may have been actually running the firm by then, I'm not sure.

但艾斯·格林伯格总是想找人，他雇了我一个朋友的儿子，专门当他的侦探。

But Ace Greenberg always was looking for he had a guy that the son of a friend of mine that he hired just to be his ferret.

他的工作是查找交易员可能藏在办公桌里的任何老旧或大型物品，我的意思是，他担心有人搞鬼，但不知怎么的，阿伊莎的女儿似乎和爱泼斯坦约会过什么的，那个家伙一定是史上最大的骗子。

His and his job was to look for anything that was old or large that traders might have stuck in their desk or I mean, he was worried about about people, but somehow Ayesha's daughter, I guess, was dated by dating Epstein or something, and and that guy must have been the con man of all time.

但当一个骗子是一回事。

But it it it's one thing to be a con man.

而贩卖未成年人则是另一回事。

It's another thing to be trafficking minors.

确实如此。

Absolutely.

性交易。

Sexual prostitution.

还有被起诉。

Oh, and and being prosecuted.

尽管他设法通过一些手段躲过了那次审判，你知道的，还有当时的总检察长。

And and even though he he managed to jiggle his way through that thing with, you know, and that and that whoever the attorney general was then.

不管怎样，他并没有在牢里待多久，你知道，但他总有办法骗过所有人。

One way or another he he he did not really spend much time in his cell, you know, and that but he had a way of conning everybody.

我的意思是，谁知道他给了那些人什么好处，才让他们这么做的。

I mean, he probably who knows what he offered the guys, you know, to do that.

他能骗过任何人。

He could con anybody.

他找到了他们的，他找到了

He found their he found

他们的弱点。

their weakness.

你有担心过吗？

Have you been concerned?

首先，你从爱泼斯坦的文件中学到了什么吗？

First of all, have you learned things from the Epstein files?

当然。

Sure.

我自己没法读，因为我的视力太差了，但我有个朋友帮我仔细读，让我惊讶的是，居然有人能这么成功地骗人，还有那个，你知道的，P。

I I can't read them myself because my my eyesight is so bad, but I I've got a friend that reads them avidly for me, and and it is astounding to me that anybody could be that successful as a con person, but the, you know, P.

T。

T.

巴纳姆很多年前也说过，你知道，每分钟都会诞生一个傻瓜，人们天生喜欢性，有些人则喜欢逃税，他弄清楚了他们的弱点，然后就有能力利用他们，但这并不能为那些人开脱

Barnum said it many years ago too, you know, it was one born every minute, and and, you know, men are going to like sex and some, some of them are going to like not paying taxes and whatever it was, he figured out what their weakness was, and then he was had this ability to prey on them, but that doesn't excuse the people on the

另一端的人。

other end.

没错。

Mean Right.

到底什么是

What what what are

针对什么的后果？

the consequences for what?

在我看来，后果很可能和1969年约翰逊政府下台时发生的情况一样，那时福特基金会雇佣了一大批被政府裁掉的人。

The consequences are very likely to be, in my view, same thing that happened back in 1969 when when the Johnson administration left and the Ford Foundation hired a whole bunch of people that that were let go from government.

而只有当国会觉得追查基金会比不追查更有利时，才会采取行动，毕竟基金会拥有大量资金，而且在华盛顿拥有更大的权力。

And it it it'll take it takes something where Congress feels that they're they're better they're better off going after the foundations than not, and, foundations have got plenty of I mean money and foundations have plenty of more power in Washington.

我的意思是，这有点让人恼火。

I mean it's kind of it's kind of irritating.

这个我们以后再谈吧，但在1969年，我认为威尔伯·米尔斯是财政委员会的主席，或者我记不太清具体细节了，但那是最后一次对基金会可做事项的重大修订。

Can talk about that later maybe, but but in '69, I think Wilbur Mills was was head of the Ways and Means Committee or I I don't remember exactly, how it came about, but that was the last that was a big revision of of what foundations could do.

好的。

Okay.

我觉得这会产生同样的影响。

I think this is the gonna have the same effect.

你有没有读过或从爱泼斯坦文件中看到过任何让你对你捐赠给盖茨基金会的资金感到担忧的内容？

Is there anything that you've read or been read from the Epstein files that concerns you about the money that you donate to the Gates Foundation?

你过去捐给那里的钱，或者你

Money you've given in the past There or money that you

我之前根本不知道有这么多。

was a lot I didn't know.

比如什么？

Like what?

非常清楚的是。

What was very clear.

嗯，我其实不知道很多事情。

Well, I didn't know a lot of things.

我的意思是，基金会当时有三位受托人，我是其中之一。

I mean, there were three trustees of the foundation I was one the three.

现在，我们每年只开一次会。

Now, we only met once a year.

我没有提出深入的问题。

I did not ask probing questions.

我的意思是，如果我真的觉得我问过那些深入的问题，我压根就不会把钱捐出去，但顺便说一句，基金会的首席执行官并不一定全程参与这些事情，而且他也不是真正的负责人。

I mean, you know, if I had if I thought I had asked probing questions, would wouldn't have put the money in as the first place, but but and incidentally the guy that's CEO of the foundation wasn't necessarily present during all these things but he's not the real CEO.

我的意思是，最终比尔才是掌控基金会的人。

Mean in the end Bill ran the foundation.

而且，我后来学到了一些东西——我想，当离婚诉讼发生时，我就明白了，因为我在那之后不到一个月就辞职了。

And and and it was and but I learned well, I learned, I guess I guess, when the divorce action happened, because I resigned a month later, less than a month later, I think.

那你当时学到了什么？

What did you learn then?

我意识到我对正在发生的事情一无所知，但这并不意味着一定有什么可怕的事情发生，但我确实完全不了解情况。

I learned that I didn't know what was going on and and, which didn't mean something terrible was going on necessarily, but I certainly didn't know what was going on.

我们没有，我也没有问过这些问题。我的意思是，作为基金会董事会成员，我在2006年做出了这个决定，当时我认为在基金会会议上插手别人的婚姻问题之类的事情并不合适，但他们一直在讨论这些无关紧要的小事，后来还雇了几个人，这些人真的很有问题，而我从来没见过他们中的任何一个。

We didn't and I didn't ask the questions either though, I mean in terms of being on the Foundation Board, it was, I made a decision on it in 2006 and I I I didn't think butting into somebody's marital problems or anything like that was particularly appropriate at the foundation meetings, but they went through and they talked about all these little things that didn't mean anything, and and then they've hired a few people that that are really bad news, you know, and I never met any of those people.

你知道，

You know,

你是在说鲍里斯·尼科利奇吗？

and that that You're talking about Boris Nikolich?

是的。

Yeah.

我甚至都不

I I I don't even

听说过他，

know what's mentioned pretty prominently in the I've never heard

他的名字在文件里被频繁提及，但我从未听说过。

of him.

而且，你知道，我当时在场，那个家伙在整个过程中表现得如此糟糕，简直是个糟糕的雇员。

And and I, you know, I was around the I that guy so far in the proceedings, I mean, he looks like a terrible guy to employ.

现在我也雇过一些糟糕的人，但我们把他们清理掉了。

Now I've employed terrible people, but we've got rid

把他们解雇了。

of them.

博里斯·尼格利奇最终也被基金会解雇了。

Boris Niegelich eventually was gotten rid of at the foundation as well.

你跟比尔·盖茨谈过这些事吗？

Have you talked to Bill Gates about any of this?

我没谈过。

I haven't.

没有。

No.

我根本没跟他提过这事。

I haven't talked to him at all.

但自从整个事情被曝光以来。

But since the whole thing was unveiled.

我不希望自己处于知道这些事情的位置。

I don't wanna be in a position where I know things.

这让我有可能被传唤为证人。

It's a moment I I could get called as a witness.

你还会继续向盖茨基金会捐款吗？

Are you going to continue to give money to the Gates Foundation?

自2006年以来，你每年六月都会捐。

You have every June since 2006.

嗯，是的。

Well, yeah.

实际上，我同意每年都会捐。

Actually, I agreed to do it every year.

是的。

Yeah.

但我大多数时候都是在6月30日左右完成的，我会等等看事情会如何发展。

But I've I've done it around June 30 most of the time, and and I'll wait and see what unfolds.

股票并不会有什么变动。

The stock isn't going any place.

这并不是说我把所有东西都转给了别的地方，或者我会失去它，但我还是会等等看，因为我这些年一直在学习一些我以前不知道的事情，也没想到婚姻状况会如何发展。

It isn't like I'm giving it all the way to something else or won't have it, but but I'll I'll wait and see what I'm learning things I didn't know about something for all these years and I didn't know how the marital thing would play out.

我的意思是，我确实不知道这些，但你有时能猜到，人们在某个时候关系可能不太好，你知道的，但每段婚姻都会这样。

I mean I I just didn't know about it, but, you could guess sometimes that people aren't getting along, you know, at a given time, but but that's true in every marriage.

有时候他们会因为配偶而感到烦躁之类的，所以无论如何，我会等等看。

There are times when they get irritated with their spouse or something like that and, so, any event, I'll just wait and see.

而且有三百五十万页，或者 whatever 它是多少。

And there's three and a half million or whatever it is, pages.

我的意思是，这真是令人震惊。

I mean, it is astounding.

在爱泼斯坦的文件里。

In the Epstein files.

你是说《爱泼斯坦文件》里有很多被删减的内容，显然所有涉及爱泼斯坦的人，从得知事情即将曝光的那一刻起，就一直备受煎熬，而且现在他们再也无法掩盖了。

You mean The Epstein files and and there's a lot of redacted stuff and obviously anybody that was involved in Epstein, I mean they've been miserable, probably from the moment they learned that things are going to get released, and the, and the, and they can't bury it now.

我的意思是，事情已经发展得太远了。

I mean, it's it's it's gone too far.

我想问的是，你有没有一种情况，就是你被卷入了……

Are there such a way I guess you're you're caught

如果你处于一种境地，所有的钱都将被捐出。

in a position where if you The money's all gonna get given away.

你不把钱捐给盖茨基金会，会不会违反你所做的承诺？

That's for don't give the money to the Gates Foundation, are you in violation of the pledge that you made?

但如果你把钱捐出去，是不是等于默认了那些已经发生的行为？

Or if you do give the money, are you condoning the behavior that has taken place?

那些你可能，或者可能还没有完全了解的行为。

That you may or may not that you may not have we we haven't learned everything potentially yet about.

这正是我想知道的

That's what I want

去了解。

to learn.

是的。

Yeah.

我今天不必做这个决定，而且我今天也没做决定。

I don't have to make that decision today and and I haven't made it today.

但我确实一直在阅读这些内容。

But I do keep reading things.

我的意思是，实际上有人给我提供过一些理由。

I mean and I've heard somebody reason for me actually.

我一直以来对 Epstein 事件都感到震惊，但这件事揭示了人性的深度——无论是金钱、性，还是其他什么，这个人都找到了人们的弱点，而他们确实做了那些事。

And I'm a I was always astounded somewhat by the Epstein thing when it was taking place but but what this reveals about humans and their degree whether whether it's money or whether it's sex or whatever, I mean this guy found people's weaknesses but they did do things.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，如果你问我个人的看法，我不觉得比尔与岛上涉及女孩的任何事情有关。

I don't think and and if you ask me my personal opinion, I don't think Bill had anything to do with, girls through the island or anything like that.

但我在阅读这些内容时，学到了各种各样的事情，而这些事正在一个接一个地毁掉人。

But I am learning things about all kinds of stuff when I read this, and and it is ruining one person after another.

我的意思是，这让我震惊，事情竟然糟糕到这种地步。

I mean, I it's just astounding to me how bad.

人们总是会做各种事，比如双方自愿的性行为之类的，但这个家伙，一天到底有多少个小时？

People always do things, I mean, there's consensual sex and all kinds of things, but, but, this guy, how many hours are there in the day?

我的意思是，三百五十万次通讯，还有背后所有的思考，他发现了人们的弱点，天啊，他太懂怎么利用了。

I mean, three and a half million or whatever, just communications and all the thinking that goes into and he found people's weaknesses and boy did he know how to use it.

他利用了这个叫鲍里斯的人，还有高盛的那位女性，你随便看哪里都能发现他的影子。

And he used, he obviously used this guy, Boris somebody and he used the woman Goldman Sachs, mean just every place you looked.

是的。

Yeah.

我从未见过这样的事，我相信一旦删减的部分被揭开，你会了解到更多。

Never seen anything, and I'm sure that once you get rid of the redacting of a few things, you know, you're going learn more.

所以你是在等文件里还会披露什么，或者国会听证会还会透露什么吗？

So you're waiting to hear what else comes from the files, potentially what comes from congressional hearings?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为他们也可能修改关于基金会的法律。

I think they may change the law on foundations too.

我以为你说的是……抱歉。

You may think the I'm sorry.

你觉得吗？

You think?

我觉得很有可能，但国会不会那么快采取行动。

I think I think there's a good chance, but congress doesn't act that fast.

他们……但我觉得国会只是对公众愤怒的事情做出反应，而公众会对爱泼斯坦事件感到愤怒。

They they they so the but I I just think that that congress reacts to whatever the public's mad about and they'll be mad about the Epstein thing.

但你刚才说你觉得他们可能会修改基金会的法律

But you said that you think they could change the law and foundations

作为结果吗？

as a result?

我认为可能会有关于基金会的重大听证会。

I think there could be major foundation hearings.

那在基金会之后会有什么样的变化呢？会起到什么作用？

And the changes that would go after the foundations that would do what?

撤销它们的免税资格？

Strip their tax status?

国会会希望看起来他们正在对此采取行动。

Congress will will wanna look like they're doing something about it.

而且过去基金会进行了大量的游说活动。

And foundations have done a lot more lobbying in the past.

我的意思是，过去几乎没有针对基金会的反对游说活动。

I mean, there's been hasn't been any anti foundation lobbying to speak of.

嗯。

Mhmm.

而且基金会一直存在，大家都去华盛顿。

And there's been foundations are there and everybody goes to Washington.

你的意思是，听起来像是……不，不是这样。

Do you It's sounding to me how how, no.

华盛顿真的变得非常重要了。

Washington is it's really become important.

钱都是在那里分配的。

That's where the money is doled out.

规则也是在那里制定的。

That's where the rules are doled out.

你认为基金会总体上做了好事吗？

Do you think the foundation foundations in general have done good work?

你认为比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会做了好事吗？

Do you think the Gates Foundation has done good work?

我相信他们确实做了不少好事。

I'm sure they've done good work.

如果他们没做这些，恐怕早就不存在了。

I don't think they'd be around if they hadn't.

是的。

Mhmm.

一些不错的工作。

Some good work.

问题是，关于它们能做什么或其税收，规则是否会改变？我的意思是，看看哈佛大学。

The question is whether the rules get changed in terms of what they can do or their taxation gets I mean, look at look at the Harvard.

我的意思是，你知道，一旦公众意见发生变化，国会就会改变。

I mean, you know, it once public opinion changes, congress changes.

你知道，事情就是这么运作的。

You know, it's it's it's just the way it works.

你后悔把钱捐给盖茨基金会了吗？不，不。

Are you sorry you've given the money to the Gates No, no.

我不后悔。

I'm not.

所以你是

So you're

很高兴它没有，我的意思是，我确实希望某些事情没有发生，当然，但并不是说他们把钱偷走用于自己之类的。

happy that it's No, mean, I it's But I wish that certain things hadn't happened obviously, but I don't, but it isn't like they're stealing money for themselves or anything like that.

我的意思是，比尔全身心投入其中。

Mean Bill pours his efforts into it.

梅琳达·波特，那个负责运营的负责人，也是这样。

Melinda Porter, the president guy that runs it does.

他是个我会亲自雇佣的人，你知道，我的意思是，马克·苏斯曼。

He's a guy who I'd hire myself, you know, I mean it it it Mark Sussman.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

而且我认为他实际上是他们最好的首席执行官，你知道，而且我并不羡慕他的工作。

And and and I think he's actually the best CEO they've had, you know, and and I don't envy his job.

但我同时也认为，我会再等等看。

But I also I also think that I think I'll wait and see.

他们现在手头有960亿美元。

They've got $96,000,000,000 that they're sitting on now.

在基金会吗？

At the foundation?

在基金会。

At the foundation.

没人有这么多钱。

Nobody's got anything like that.

尽管比尔也说过，他计划在未来二十年内迅速花掉这笔钱，

Although Bill has also said that he plans to spend that money down Well pretty rapidly over the next twenty years,

我觉得是这样。

I think.

他还会投入自己大量的资金，并且继续增加。

Plenty of his own money and and add to it.

我不确定会发生什么。

I I don't I don't know what will happen.

也就是说

Mean

其实你、比尔还有梅琳达还一同发起了捐赠承诺，对。

There there's been you know, you you and Bill and Melinda also created the giving pledge where Yeah.

你号召全球的亿万富翁都来签署这份承诺，同意在自己有生之年或是离世后，捐出至少一半的财富。

You got billionaires around the world to sign up and agree that they would give away at least half of their wealth either while they were living or upon their death.

而且你成功说服了数百人签署了这份承诺。

And you got hundreds of people to sign up to that.

这就意味着

There there's

还有两百多号人呢。

200 and some.

对。

Yeah.

总共有250多个人都签署了这个承诺。

250 some people to sign up to that.

这声音来自我们已经吸引了这么多人的事实。

It it's the sound of me that we've gotten that many.

比尔所做的一切，我要给他点赞，他把这件事推广到了国外，你正在某种程度上改变着社会的行为。

We what what what Bill has done on which I give him credit for is he's taken it abroad, and you're changing you're changing the behavior of societies to some small degree.

美国现在在很大程度上也得益于法律和各种其他因素，但美国不仅在许多其他方面是一个实验，在私人慈善方面也是如此，这些小小的突破在全球范围内产生影响，我认为这挑战了数百年来的行为模式，因此他投入到任何事情中的能量都令人难以置信。

The United States is, now they've gotten partly by the laws of favor too and everything else, but The United States is an experiment not only in a lot of other ways but also actually in terms of private philanthropy and those made small little cracks and that around the world, which I think only defies centuries and centuries of behavior, so his his the energy he brings to anything he's he's involved in is incredible.

说实话，我知道我太懒了。

Mean, you know, I'm too lazy.

我不会满世界跑，我只是觉得我们启动了一件好事，而且我觉得，加入捐赠誓言的每个人，都没有比原本打算捐得更少。

I I'm not gonna go around the world, I just, you know, I I feel we launched something good and it I feel that there is no one that's a member of the giving pledge that is giving less than they would have given otherwise.

我们从未告诉他们该把钱捐给谁。

Now we never told them what to give it to.

我们从未告诉他们什么时候该捐。

We never told them when they should give it.

我们也没有做出违法的承诺。

We didn't make an illegal pledge.

不过，我们在这方面确实得到了很多回应。

Mean but we we really got response on that.

最近有一些文章谈到，某些领域，尤其是科技亿万富翁，比如彼得·蒂尔和马克·安德森，他们表示不喜欢捐赠承诺，认为这是‘觉醒文化’。

There has been there have been some articles written race recently about the backlash in certain sectors, technology billionaires in particular, Peter Thiel, Marc Andreessen, who have said that they don't like the giving pledge and they they think it's woke.

如果如果如果

If if if

如果他们不喜欢，不参加就行了，他们完全可以退出。

if they don't like it, don't have the full they can they can retire from it.

他们本来也没做法律承诺。

They they didn't make a legal pledge anyway.

没错。

Right.

富人不喜欢其他富人，可能有各种各样的原因，谁知道呢？但我想说的是，我敢打赌，绝对没有人因为这个承诺而捐得比原本更少，相当一部分人——虽然不是特别多，但也不少——已经开始更早地捐赠，或者捐得更多了。

And there may be any one of a lot of reasons why rich people don't like other rich people or who knows what happens, but but I would say this, that well I I I just would bet a lot of money that nobody is giving less because of it than they would have otherwise given, and a fair number of people, not not huge numbers, but not insignificant numbers either, are giving it earlier or giving more.

嗯。

Mhmm.

人们向我提出的最大反对意见，通常是母亲们说的，就是她们不希望成为关于自己有多富有的文章的靶子，这确实也能理解。

The biggest objection that people would raise with me, and it usually was by the mother, was that they just didn't want to become targets of articles about how rich they were, and can't blame them for that.

我的意思是，他们担心的可能是任何事情，但还是有很多人加入了。

I mean they, they're worried about they can be worried about anything, but but, a lot of people joined.

有个人甚至因为他说自己只想和贝基·奎克一起吃顿午饭而加入了。

One guy even joined because he he said, all I want is to have lunch with Becky Quick.

我说，我觉得他好像并没有真正付诸行动。

I I said, I think I think and he didn't he didn't follow through apparently,

但不是的。

but No.

我再也没有收到过他的消息。

I never heard from him.

但是但是

But but

但我的意思是，如果你聚集了一大批亿万富翁，就会遇到很多怪人，不过这也不算奇怪，我不该拿这个来让你觉得奇怪。

but I mean that if you get a lot of billionaires, get a lot of peculiar people, but they not that that's peculiar, I shouldn't present you with that.

但让我惊讶的是，我们得到的反响非常好，当时我们刚开始打电话联系。

But it was amazing to me the reception we got, and we just started dialing.

我们碰到了明显的瓶颈，我的意思是，显然新增人数的增速已经放缓了，而且很明显，我们通常会说，我们不会评判这些人，不会去判断他们是靠酒类还是其他行业赚的钱，我们关心的是他们如何使用这些钱。

And we hit the obvious tick I mean obviously it's fallen off the rate of additions, and obviously you know, we made, we generally said we're not judging the people, we're not going to judge whether or they made their money at liquor, we weren't, you know, What counts is what they're doing with it, you know.

我们讨论的无非就是，天啊，把一半财产捐出去吧。

Mean that's all we're talking about is, for God's sakes, you know, give away half of it.

这和那些拥有百年家族农场、计划把农场传给子女的家庭截然不同，而像我这样靠股票致富的人就完全不同。

And that's so different from a, for a family that's got a family farm for a hundred years and they planned on giving it to their kids and all kinds of things than it is for some guy like me that just made it in stocks.

我的意思是，如果我像那些非常富有的农民一样，拥有大片土地，一辈子都在为传给子女而积累，还不断购买邻近的农场，那做出这样的决定会是一个巨大的情感抉择。

Know, I mean, it would be a big emotional decision if I were like a bunch of, well, got certain very rich farmers, you know, that own lots of, of acreage and they've been building it their whole life for their turnover to their kids and they buy the farm next to them and everything.

我觉得在捐赠这个问题上，我感觉很好。

It it I think I I feel good about the giving question.

你说你还没和比尔谈过从爱泼斯坦文件中暴露出来的那些问题。

You said you haven't talked to Bill about any of the issues that have come out from the Epstein files.

你们现在还是好朋友吗？

Are are you still good friends with him?

我们在一起度过了很多美好时光，而且他对我的照顾，可能比对其他任何人都要好。

We've had great times together, but and he's he's treated me better than I think he's probably treated anybody else.

他安排了旅行，确保有我喜欢的食物，甚至在中国时还安排了《华尔街日报》的报道，等等，他在这整个过程中一直对我非常体贴，但我觉得在事情澄清之前，我不觉得多谈有什么意义。

Mean he's arranged trips that that arrange for the kinds of foods I like to the Wall Street Journal being in China or what I mean he he's been terribly thoughtful with me throughout this, but I think until it gets cleared up I don't I just don't think it makes sense to do a lot of talking for one thing.

我不希望被逼着发誓，因为我的记忆力已经大不如前了，我不想勉强自己去回忆所有细节。

I I I don't want to be under, I, I, my memory is no good anymore, and I don't want to be under oath in terms of trying to remember everything.

三十多年或二十年来，基金会已经运作起来了，或者类似的事情。

Over thirty years or twenty years the foundation is done or anything like that.

除了把钱投进去，我什么都没做，你可能会说，你没有参与是失职，但我把钱捐给了孩子们的基金会。

I didn't have anything to do with it except I put, put the money in, but and you may say, you can can say, well you're derelict in not in not doing it, I'm giving money on my children's foundations.

我从来都没看过他们把钱捐给了谁，你知道的。

I've never looked at what they give either, you know.

我的意思是，我只是相信别人。

I mean I just I I trust people.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为我信任的人都是非常优秀的，但我也能理解，如果有人让像爱泼斯坦这样的人进入自己的生活，他们就不想谈论这件事。

And I think I've trusted very good people but I think I can see where if somebody gets a guy like Epstein involved in their life, they don't want to talk about it.

是的。

Yeah.

你知道，对我而言，比尔从未说过‘来吧，我带你去见爱泼斯坦’，这其实非常有帮助。

You know, I wouldn't, I mean it's been very useful to me that Bill never said, Come on along, I want you to meet at Epstein.

他本可以做些事情，让我的生活陷入混乱，而我可能会顺从他。

So he he he could have he could have done things that that would have been screwed up my life, I I would have gone along with him.

如果他在年会后或某个时候对我说：‘嘿，我要去纽约，你一起飞过去吗？’

If if said to me after the annual meeting or sometime and he said, you know, I'm going to New York, why don't you fly along?

然后说‘有个挺有意思的人’之类的，我可能真的就去了，所以我要感谢他没有这么做。

There's this interesting guy or something, I probably would have gone, you know, and so got him to thank for not doing that.

但你无法回避已经发生的事，也无法回避一个事实：基金会这种形式在我们国家确实被广泛认可。

But you can't get away from what happened either, and you can't get away from the fact that foundations are a peculiar there is something that our country has really endorsed.

比如慈善捐赠抵税、捐赠者建议基金等等，这些都值得比每三十年或四十年更频繁地审视。

Mean charitable deductions and donor advised funds and all of that sort of thing and that's worth looking at probably more often than every thirty or forty years.

基金会就是他们所做的事，本质上就是游说，让我们别管他们。

Foundation is just what they do is they they lobby just basically leave us alone.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

我们这个节目还剩下八十七秒。

We we have eighty seven seconds left in the show.

你还有什么想补充的吗？我觉得我们还没谈够。

Any other thought that you'd like to throw in because I don't think we've covered enough ground?

我觉得。

Well, think the

有趣的是，你有美国，这个世界的奇迹。

interesting thing is you've got America which is the wonder of the world.

但同时，也有大量的人，他们和你我一样都是普通人，你知道，他们可能没有和你我相同的智商之类的东西，但我觉得差距太大了，不过我也认为这套体系是有效的。

And at the same time you've got a great number of people that and they're they're just as much human beings as you you or I, and you know, they may not they they they may not have the same IQ or anything like that, but I think the differentials are too great, but I also think it's worked.

那么，你究竟如何通过一个本质上被分成两派、无论什么议题都自动相互对立的实体来解决这一切呢？

So how do you actually solve all that through an entity which is basically broken down into two sides that sort of automatically vote against each other no matter what the issue is.

我的意思是，你指的是民主党人和共和党人吗？

I mean You mean Democrats and Republicans?

是的。

Yeah.

民主党人和共和党人。

Democrats and Republicans.

我们只剩下二十秒了。

Mean We have twenty seconds.

它比以往任何时候都更加党派化，而我们的繁荣也达到了前所未有的程度，谁曾想过会这样？

It it's become more partisan than than ever, and and we're more prosperous than ever, and anybody ever dreamt.

所以你得说资本主义是有效的，它仍然需要……我想我们现在结束了。

So you have to say capitalism's work, it still needs you know, it it I guess we're finished now.

我们结束了。

We're finished.

还有三秒。

Three seconds.

你是民主党人还是共和党人？

You you are start you a democrat or a republican?

我两者都做过，实际上在1960年我曾以共和党人的身份参选，而且我父亲是个坚定的共和党人。

I've been both, and I I I I was I was actually on the ballot as a republican in 1960, but I but and my dad was very Republican.

我后来转向了民主党，现在我是独立人士。

I went to the Democratic side, and now I'm an independent.

好的。

Okay.

我们就停在这里吧。

We're gonna leave it on that.

这就够吊你胃口了，等下次再和你聊。

And that's enough of a tease till the next time we talk with you.

不过，沃伦，非常感谢你抽出时间。

But Warren, thank you very much for your time.

这非常有趣。

It's a lot of fun.