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绝不是说可扩展性已经解决了。
By no means saying scalability is solved.
更准确地说，它并没有我们最初想象的那么大的挑战，因为我们不需要有80亿人同时使用。
It's more like it's not as big of a challenge as we initially thought it would be because we don't need 8,000,000,000 people on there.
难道我们该放弃所有无法立即扩展到全球的应用吗？
Like, should we just give up on everything that doesn't scale immediately to the entire planet?
不，不是这样的。
It's like, no.
这根本没有道理。
That doesn't really make sense.
大家好，欢迎回到斯蒂芬·洛韦拉的播客。
Hi, everyone, and welcome back to Stefan Lovera podcast.
今天，我邀请到了来自River的萨姆·沃特斯。
Today, I'm joined by Sam Wouters from River.
许多人可能知道River是一家仅支持比特币的经纪公司，提供各种金融服务，也以闪电网络相关产品而闻名。
Many of you will know River as a Bitcoin only brokerage, financial services, various products that they're offering, known for doing lightning stuff as well.
我知道你们很快就要发布这份关于比特币采用情况的报告了，而让我特别感兴趣的是闪电网络的采用情况。
And, I know you guys are just gonna be putting out this, report soon on Bitcoin adoption and interestingly for me, especially is the lightning adoption stuff.
所以，欢迎来到节目，萨姆，嗯，能不能给我们简单介绍一下你们在这份报告中发现了什么？
So, you know, welcome to the show, Sam, and, yeah, just give us a bit of a an overview and what you what you saw in this report.
是的。
Yeah.
谢谢您邀请我参加，斯特凡。
Thanks for having me on, Stephane.
关于这份报告，我们过去几年一直在做，其中一个目标就是把一些非常难理解的内容梳理得更清晰、更容易理解。
So with the report, like, this is something we've been doing for the last couple of years, and one of the goals has been to make something that is very hard to understand and kind of map out more understandable for people.
通常大家可能都熟悉——或者说，很多人可能并不熟悉闪电网络的容量有多大、有多少条通道、它已经存在多久了，而它从最初构想至今已经快十年了。
So everyone is familiar typically, or I'm saying everyone, but a lot of people probably aren't familiar with sort of, like, how much capacity is in the Lightning Network, how many channels there are, sort of, like, how long it's been around, which has been almost ten years now since it was first conceived.
而人们真正难以理解的是，它到底被使用了多少。
And what people struggle with is really understanding how much is it actually being used.
人们是否在日常生活中使用闪电网络？
Are people using Lightning on a day to day basis?
他们用它来做什么？
What are they using it for?
使用频率如何？
How often?
这些交易的金额有多大？
How big are those transactions?
除了个人运行自己的闪电网络节点外，关于这方面的进展并没有太多清晰的信息。
Beyond individuals running their own Lightning nodes, there just isn't that much clarity on the developments there.
这使得人们很难理解，比特币是否真的在扩展？
And that makes it really hard for people to understand, like, is sort of, like, is Bitcoin scaling?
这项技术真的有效吗？
Like, does this technology work?
谁在采用它？
Who is adopting it?
它到底被用在哪些方面？
Like, what is it being used for?
这使得该领域的资本配置变得非常困难，因为投资者根本不知道，比如，如果我投资一家闪电网络公司，除了那些通常不会大幅波动的公开数据外，市场上是否存在真实需求。
And it makes things like capital allocation in the space really difficult because investors just don't know, like, you know, if I'm investing in a Lightning company, is there actual demand in the market there other than, like, the public metrics that I can tell that typically don't move drastically over time.
因此，如果没有更多信息，他们很难做出明智的决策。
So it's quite difficult for them to make informed decisions without more information.
对于那些选择将职业生涯投入到改进闪电网络的人来说，这也是个问题：我到底为谁在做这件事？
And then for people choosing to dedicate their career to improving Lightning as well, it's like, who am I doing it for?
我几乎看不到谁在使用它，或者它有多活跃，除了我自己的节点和上面发生的活动之外。
I can't really see who's using it or, like, how active that is other than the own my own node that I'm running and the activity that's happening there.
因此，这些数据有助于为各种不同的利益相关者提供信息，甚至包括交易所。
So the data just, like, helps to inform a whole variety of different stakeholders, also even, like, exchanges.
我们该采用闪电网络吗？
Should we adopt Lightning?
我们应该向客户提供这项服务吗？
Should we offer that to our clients or not?
如果他们不知道究竟有多少人真正需要它，而客户也没有大规模地向他们提出需求，那他们就真的无从判断。
If they don't know how many people really need it and their clients aren't at large scale reaching out to them, asking them to edit, then they don't really know.
因此，有很多不同的类别可以通过更好的数据获得更充分的信息。
So lots of different categories there that, you know, get better informed through better data.
几年前，我们在River公司做出了一个决定，我们自己拥有闪电网络的数据。
And then we kind of made the decision a couple of years back, like, at River, we have our own lightning data, obviously.
这个领域里还有其他人也拥有闪电网络的数据。
There's other people in the space that also have lightning data.
如果我们每年做一次尝试，尽可能收集所有数据，从而大致了解网络上可能有多少流量，会怎么样呢？
What if we just do an exercise once a year where we try to collect as much as possible and then get a bit of an indication that way of, like, how much traffic could roughly be happening on the network?
当然，所有这些显然都不是完美的。
So all of this is obviously you know, it's by no means perfect.
其中一个主要原因是，我们只使用了公开数据。
And a big reason for that as well is because we're only using public data.
闪电网络也可以通过私有通道使用，而私有通道的参与者并不公开，我们也无法获取这些数据。
And the Lightning Network can also be used privately in the sense of private channels where the participants just aren't publicly known, and we don't have any data on that either.
因此，从这个角度来看。
So this is, in that regard.
这也是一种下限估计，实际情况可能还要高得多。
It's like a lower bound estimate as well, and the reality could still be significantly higher.
对。
Right.
所以，我们来聊聊总体数据吧，因为我觉得这对大家会很有趣。
So, yeah, let's let's talk about the high level numbers just because I think that will be interesting for people.
那给我们说说当前闪电网络的主要数据吧。
So give us the headline stats on Lightning Network nowadays.
是的。
Yeah.
我们发现，我们对2025年11月进行了这项统计，但收集和处理所有数据需要相当长的时间。
So what we found was we did this exercise for November 2025, and it takes, like, a while to gather all the data and process everything.
在那个月里，我们基本收集到了网络总容量的50%左右，这已经相当多了。
And in that month, we found, like, we basically collected data on about 50% of all the capacity on the network, so that's quite a lot.
不过，前一年我们收集到了约80%，再前一年也大约是50%。
With that said, the year before, we did about 80%, and the year before that was also around 50%.
所以这个数字会根据愿意参与的人、我们能收集到多少数据、所有容量的分布情况等因素而有所波动。
So it's kinda fluctuated based on, like, who's willing to participate, how much are we able to gather, where is all the capacity located, and whatnot.
但我们用这大约50%的数据来估算，尽量避免这些节点之间的重叠，从而推算出在这50%的容量中经过了多少交易量和交易笔数，再外推到整个网络，大致估计出整体的交易规模和数量级。
But we use that roughly 50% to then determine, like, you know, you kinda wanna avoid how much overlap is there between these nodes and to then arrive at, like, roughly how much, volume has flown through and how many transactions have flown through that 50% of the capacity and then extrapolate that to the rest of the network to get, like, a rough estimate of sort of, like, directionally, order of magnitude, how much is going on.
因此我们发现，在2025年11月，闪电网络的交易总额超过了10亿美元。
So what we found there was that in November 2025, we went over $1,000,000,000 in transaction volume on Lightning.
我认为最终的数据是11.7亿美元，相比前一年2024年。
I think the final number was 1,170,000,000.00 that we found compared to the year before 2024.
是的。
Yeah.
我们发现是2.86亿。
We found 286.
这确实是2025年11月的数据。
That's that's indeed in the month of November.
而前一年，即2024年11月，约为2.86亿美元。
And then a year earlier in November 2024, it was about $286,000,000.
所以这是一个非常显著的增长。
So that's a really significant increase.
这基本上是四倍的增长，发现这一点确实让人非常震惊。
It's like it's a four x increase, basically, which was very, like, pretty shocking to find.
这种增长非常迅速，人们尤其感到惊讶，因为最近几个月比特币价格一直相对盘整，甚至有所下跌。
That's a very rapid increase, and people are especially surprised, I think, because the Bitcoin price has been relatively, like, sideways and now down in recent months.
但在十一月，平均来看，于是人们开始问：嘿。
But back in November, it was, an average from a So the questions start flowing in from people like, hey.
这是某种奇怪的异常值吗？
Is this a strange outlier of some kind?
你们有没有在整个年度里检查更多的数据？
Like, did you guys check more data throughout the year?
是不是有人篡改了数据之类的？
Like, did someone cook the books or whatever?
我们当然在River有自己的数据，同时也从一些其他数据提供商那里获得了十二月的部分数据，并确认了这一趋势。
And we had partial we have our own data, obviously, at River, but we also had partial data from some other data providers for December, and then just confirmed the trend.
如果有任何趋势的话，基于这些数据，方向性反而更强了。
If anything, it was stronger sort of, like, directionally based on that data.
但这还不足以说：好吧。
But that wasn't enough to say, like, okay.
我们不会把十二月的数据作为估算依据，因为支持这一估算的数据越少，假设就越不可靠。
We're gonna put an estimate for December into as the assumptions just get weaker when you have less capacity supporting it.
有意思。
Interesting.
所以这基本上是我们的考量方式。
So that was kind
现在，我想提供一些有趣的背景信息，正如你所说，我们这里讨论的是公共闪电网络。
of the thinking.
人们会查看各种区块浏览器，比如AmBOS或Mentor DOS的闪电网络数据。
Now I guess some interesting context, as you said, what we're talking about here is the public Lightning Network.
现在人们会查看各种区块浏览器，比如AmBOS或Mentor DOS的闪电网络数据。
Now people look at explorers, whether that's AmBOS or Mentor DOS based Lightning.
我可以在这里看到，闪电网络的所谓总锁仓价值（TVL）是5,348个比特币。
And I can see here it's 5,348 BTC is the quote unquote TVL of Lightning.
但你之前提到的数字，11.7亿美元，大约相当于每月70,000个比特币。
But your number that you gave, which is 1,170,000,000.00, is something like 70,000 BTC per month.
换句话说，这意味着每月的周转次数超过x倍。
So in other words, it means it's cycling over more than x every month.
对吧？
Right?
所以这里有点有趣，至少在闪电网络通道中的公开比特币的存量价值大约是5,000个。
So there's kind of a funny like, the stock value of, you know, at least public Bitcoin in Lightning channels is, you know, 5,000.
但我们假设当前价格，实际上有大约17,000个比特币在流通。
But we've got 17,000 BTC kind of just assuming current prices.
每个月有三倍的周转率，这简直有点疯狂。
It's kinda crazy that it's we're getting, like, three x turnover every month.
是的。
Yep.
是的
Yeah.
看到这一点真是太棒了。
It's fantastic to see.
我喜欢用一个类比来说明，因为人们最初对你的批评之一就是：不可能。
An analogy I like to use here because, like, one of the first pieces of criticism you get from people is like, no.
这无法扩展，或者这不可能实现，因为公开的数据指标并没有反映出这种增长。
It's not scaling, or this this can be possible because the public metrics don't reflect this kind of growth.
我们早在几年前就已经开始指出这一点了。
And we'd already started calling it out a couple years ago.
我们看到人们在使用网络容量方面变得更加高效，我们自己也意识到了这一点。
It's like we're seeing an increase in how efficient people are with the capacity that's on the network, and we realized that this ourselves as well.
你并不需要在网上的节点中存放数百个比特币，就能路由大量支付。
Like, you don't need to have hundreds of Bitcoin sitting in nodes on the network to be able to, like, route a lot of payments.
只要你的设置是高效的，比如有良好的资金循环机制来补充你的容量，那么就没有必要不断增加那些最终只是躺在热钱包里、比冷存储更不安全的额外容量。
Like, as long as your setup is efficient, that you've got, like, good loops to be able to refill your capacity and whatnot, then, like, there isn't really a strong need there to just keep, like, adding on more and more capacity that's ultimately just sitting in essentially a hot wallet, which puts it at more risk than if it were in cold storage.
如果你仔细想想，这里的很多增长其实都很合理，因为有很多改进让节点运营者更容易管理他们的流动性。
And if you think about it, like, a lot of this growth here makes a lot of sense because there have been a lot of improvements that have made it more sort of, like, made it easier for node operators to manage their liquidity.
每个人都在进步，我喜欢用网球来打比方：不是告诉球员，你得尽可能多得分，导致球总是飞出界外，你得不断捡新球——也就是不断获取新的流动性，然后一直试图多得分。
Everyone's just gotten better, and the analogy I like to use is, think of it as, like, a game of tennis where instead of telling the players, like, you should be scoring as many points as possible so the balls constantly go off the court and you need to, like, pick up a new ball, like, new liquidity, basically, and you keep trying to score as many points as possible.
很多人看待闪电网络就是这样的。
A lot of people kinda look at Lightning like that.
他们其实没搞明白，等等。
They don't really understand, like, wait.
我们难道不应该最大化闪电网络里的比特币数量，建立更多通道和节点吗？
Like, shouldn't we be maximizing the amount of Bitcoin that's in the Lightning Network and, like, having more channels and having more nodes?
他们觉得所有数字都得一直往上走。
And it's all about every number going up all the time.
但事实上，我们更像是告诉球场上的球员：你用同一个球坚持打的时间越长，来回弹击的次数越多而不让球落地，你赚的钱就越多。
Whereas I think what's happened a lot is, basically, we've told the players in the game, the longer you keep playing with the same ball, the more you can bounce it back and forth without dropping it, the more money you make.
所以尽量别把球打出场外，最大化你手头已有的球的使用效率。
So try not to hit any balls off the field, like, maximize the sort of, like, the balls that you have available to you.
通常，这些玩家会在场边准备几个球，不断来回击打，尽可能多地击打。
Typically, these players will have a couple in their pocket on the field, and just keep going back and forth as many times as you can.
你击打的次数越多，打得越快，赚的钱就越多。
The more times you can, the faster you play, the more money you make.
但千万别把球打出场外。
But just don't hit it off the court.
我们看到，过去几年里，闪电网络的节点运营者在这方面变得越来越熟练。
And that's what we've seen, like, Lightning node operators get better and better at over the past years.
是的。
Yeah.
这与我接触的其他闪电网络专家的观点一致。总的来说，当我与那些实际运行节点、从事专业或半专业运营的人交流时，他们都注意到闪电网络的交易量在持续增长。
And this aligns with other Lightning experts that I talk to that, generally speaking, when I talk to them, as in practitioners who are actually running a node and actually doing this professionally or semi professionally, they are noticing this kind of secular increase in lightning volumes just over time.
对吧？
Right?
当然，当比特币价格出现大幅牛市时，可能会出现短暂的峰值，或许会有所谓的财富效应。
Now, okay, of course, when there's like a big bull run-in the Bitcoin price, okay, maybe you get a spike, maybe there's a quote unquote wealth effect.
对吧？
Right?
历史上，这确实是一个因素。
Historically, that has been kind of a factor.
但我很好奇，你有没有看到类似的模式？
But I'm curious, did you see a similar pattern there?
然后，你对闪电网络的用户数量有什么见解或分析吗？
And then do you have any insights or any any analysis on the number of users of Lightning?
关于用户数量，我们没有这方面的数据。
On the number of users, we don't.
这并不是我们目前关注的领域。
It's not an area that we were looking into now.
我记得几年前在一份报告中尝试过估算，但这极其困难。
I recall trying to create estimates in, like, one of the reports a couple years ago, and it's incredibly difficult.
你可以看看钱包的下载量之类的粗略数据，但显然其中有很多用户流失，人们并不会持续使用。
You can, like, look at sort of, like, rough downloads of wallets and things like that, but there's obviously a lot of churn there where people don't keep using it.
你可以根据某个交易所是否支持闪电网络来进行估算，比如他们有多少活跃用户。
You can make estimations based on an exchange might have Lightning available and then trying to estimate, okay, they have this many active users.
但只有少数几家会公开报告这些数据。
Only a few of them publicly report that.
这些用户中有多少人实际在使用闪电网络呢？
How many of those might be using Lightning?
所有的估算都相当薄弱，尤其是在现在这么多大型平台都已支持闪电网络的情况下，要大致确定这个数字真的非常困难。
It's all, like, to sort of, like the the the estimations are a bit too weak there to make a a proper estimation, especially at this point with how many large platforms have it available, that is really difficult to determine, like, roughly what is that.
我们所知道的是，这能提供一个相对更可靠的估算依据，即某个月份通过闪电网络发送的交易数量。
What we do know, and that gives a bit of a like, honestly, it gives the best kind of estimation of how many users might there be, is how many transactions were sent in a particular month by by the estimation.
比如，回到2025年11月，前面提到过交易总额超过十亿美元，根据我们的估算，闪电网络交易笔数为5122万笔。
Like, when we go back to November 2025 there, mentioned earlier over a billion dollar in transaction volume, and the Lightning transaction count was five one twenty two million by our estimation.
因此，我们能直接确认的约为260万笔，再据此推算整个网络，公开数据大约为520万笔。
So, basically, like, 2,600,000 that we could directly confirm and then sort of extrapolating that out into the network would be publicly around 5,200,000.
这能让你大致了解，可能有多少用户在使用。
So that tells you roughly, like, you know, like, how many users could that be.
用户数量不会达到一亿。
It's it's not gonna be a 100,000,000 users.
可能也达不到一千万用户。
It's probably also not gonna be 10,000,000 users.
也许实际用户更多，但其中一半在那个月份没有活跃。
It could be that there are more users and half of them weren't active in that month.
这当然是有可能的。
That's, you know, that's obviously possible.
然后你就得讨论，到底什么才算一个用户？
And then you get into the discussion of, like, when is someone a user?
是每月交易一次就算吗？
Is it if they transact once a month?
是每季度交易一次才算吗？
Is it, like, once a quarter?
还是每周都要交易才算？
Is it every week?
是的
Yeah.
这也变得非常难以讨论。
That gets really tricky to discuss as well.
但是，
But,
关于交易的平均金额，有什么见解吗？
like Any insights on the average size of the transaction?
我相信这个金额随着时间也在上升。
I I I believe that's been rising over time also.
是的
Yeah.
它一直在上升，我认为由此得出的合乎逻辑的结论是，很多人后来跟我提到过，这有点像是个陷阱，比如‘哦，对啊’。
It's been rising, and I think the logical conclusion there is and kind of, like, a lot of people have gotten back to me as this kind of gotcha of, like, oh, yeah.
现在人们进行闪电网络交易的主要原因，比如，是从交易所提现，或者可能是在不同交易所之间转账，大概是为了套利之类的原因。
The primary reason people are doing these Lightning transactions now is, like, withdrawing from an exchange, for example, or maybe sending from one exchange to the other, probably for, like, arbitrage reasons or something like that.
但事实上，之所以会这样，是因为今天绝大多数人把交易所当作自己的钱包。
But, like, the reason that's logically happening is the vast majority of people today treat their exchange as their wallet.
不幸的是，从比特币总量来看，大多数比特币是被用户自行保管的。
Most Bitcoiners, unfortunately, by volume, most Bitcoin is held in self custody.
但从个体数量和他们存储比特币的方式来看，很多人更喜欢使用交易所，因为他们出于各种原因害怕自行保管，而要让他们转向自行保管的进展非常缓慢。
But by count of individuals and where they're storing their Bitcoin, a lot of people prefer to use exchanges because they're scared of self custody for whatever reasons, and it's a much slower progress to get them into self custody.
因此，既然如此多的比特币和如此多的用户把交易所当作他们持有资金和进行交易的核心场所，那么大量闪电网络的交易量自然也由此产生。
So naturally, if so much of the Bitcoin and so many of the individuals treat and exchange as their central place from which they hold their money and might do transactions, then that is logically where a lot of the lightning volume also emerges from.
我不明白人们怎么会认为这种情况会有什么不同。
Like, I don't know how how people picture this would be any kind of, like, any different.
你知道，当你从交易所提取资金并转入一个自行保管的闪电网络钱包时。
You know, for all of the money that you pull from an exchange and put into a self custodial Lightning wallet as well.
但你需要进行大量交易，才能达到你从交易所提取出来的那笔资金的交易量。
Like, you then need to transact quite a lot before you start matching that volume that you withdrew from the exchange there.
所以在闪电网络发展的早期阶段，大量交易量集中在交易所附近是非常合乎逻辑的。
So especially in the sort of, like, earlier developmental stages of Lightning, it's very logical that a lot of the volume lives around exchanges.
人们回来问我：‘但如果你把这部分交易量剔除，那剩下的还有什么？’
And people come back to me with this like, oh, but if you extract that volume, then what's left?
这就像说我们只应该统计现金交易，因为任何从ATM提取的资金
And it's like, well, that's like saying we should only be counting cash transactions or something because anything you withdraw from An ATM
取款或者类似的操作
withdrawals or something like
这是不被允许的。
That's that's not allowed.
我知道这种观点的理由，但关于什么是有效的交易量、什么不是，这种讨论变得过于主观了。
And it's like, you know, I understand the arguments for that, but it gets so opinionated as well about what is valid volume and what isn't.
我们这项研究的目标，包括那500万笔交易的统计，并不是要说‘这是一笔真实的交易’，而是我们认为它不算，因为这都只是数据字符串而已。
And our goal with this research, also with the 5,000,000 transaction count, it isn't to say, like, this was a real transaction, but we think that, well, it wasn't because it's all just, like you know, it's like data strings.
我们并不清楚用户发起这笔交易或这个工具的真实意图是什么。
There's no, like, clarity around what what was the intent of a person to go send out this transaction or or this tool.
你知道，他们在一小时内做了上千笔交易。
You know, they did a thousand transactions there in an hour.
这不可能是人类做的。
That's there's no way a human did that.
那么这里的具体使用场景是什么？
So what was the exact use case here?
让我们把这一点分类得不一样些。
Let's categorize that differently.
像这样，肯定做不到。
Like, there's no way of Sure.
大规模地做这种事是不可能的。
Doing that at scale.
是的。
Yeah.
如果你回看闪电网络早期时的主流说法，你觉得我们作为比特币和闪电网络的爱好者、早期采用者，当时误解了什么？
If you were to look back to, let's say, popular narratives when Lightning was early, what would you say we as Bitcoin and Lightning, you know, enthusiasts, you know, adopters, what were we getting wrong?
我们哪些观点是错的，哪些是对的？
What narratives were we getting what were we wrong about and what were we right about?
哦，这是个非常好的问题。
Oh, that's a really good question.
我认为我刚才提到的一个重要问题是，比特币爱好者总是非常希望每个人都能真正成为比特币用户。
I think I think one big thing I was kind of touching on in there is, like, Bitcoiners have been like, we're always very hopeful that everyone will become, like, a true Bitcoiner.
你会自己保管比特币，使用冷存储，并完全走上这条道路——你开始接触奥地利经济学，然后开始质疑生活中的一切。
You will hold Bitcoin in self custody, cold storage, and kind of go all the way into that trajectory of, like, you get into Austrian economics, and you just, like, start questioning everything in your life.
虽然这对许多比特币爱好者来说是理想的北极星，但并非每个人都能达到这个境界。
And while that's, like, the ideal north star for a lot of Bitcoiners, not necessarily everyone gets there.
所以当闪电网络早期推出时，很多人认为每个人都会以自托管的方式使用它，这是我们起步的起点。
So when Lightning was launched early on, I think a lot of people had this idea of, like, everyone's gonna do it self custodially, and that's where we start out.
只有当所有人，或者绝大多数人都这样做时，它才算成功。
And it's only successful if everyone or, like, the vast majority of people do that.
我认为，你知道，我确实是个理想主义者。
And I think, like, you know, I definitely I'm an idealist.
我也看到了那颗北极星。
I see that North Star too.
同时，我在想，大多数人采纳技术的方式未必如此，而且很多人对金钱问题非常谨慎。
At the same time, I'm thinking, like, that's not how most people adopt technology necessarily, and a lot of people are very hesitant when it comes to money.
所以对我们来说，更重要的是谁正在朝着采用比特币、实现更多自我主权的方向前进。
So for us, it's it's much more about, like, who is on the trajectory of going to worth towards that end goal of, like, adopting Bitcoin in more self sovereign ways.
即使他们最初是通过托管方式使用，至少他们比完全不使用比特币、不使用任何稳定币或其他支付方式的人更接近非托管使用。
And even if they're initially using it custodially, at least they're, like, much closer to using it noncustodially than if they weren't using it at all, if they weren't using some kind of stablecoin or some other way to do payments.
因此，我觉得在早期，很多比特币爱好者都非常关注这一点。
So that's the thing where I felt like, like, in the early years, a lot of Bitcoiners were very focused on that.
他们认为，只有当我们所有人都这样做的时候，它才算成功，但我觉得实践已经表明，很多人乐于使用它并从中受益。
It's like, it can only be a success if we're all doing it that way, but I think, like, practice has kinda shown, like, a lot of people are happy to use it and benefit from it.
他们使用得越多，就越有可能愿意以更自我主权的方式使用它。
And the more they use it, the more likely they'll be open to using it in sort of, like, more self sovereign ways as well.
我认为，与早期相比，闪电网络让我特别注意到的第二点是，很多人过于关注容量问题。
I think the second thing that's that's kind of stood out to me with with Lightning compared to the early years is I think a lot of people were, like, overly focused on capacity as well.
比如，哦，我们必须往里面注入大量比特币，建立很多通道。
Like, oh, we've gotta get a lot of Bitcoin in here, lots of channels.
这一点其实也已经提到过了。
Kind of already touched on that too.
后来我们才慢慢明白，等等。
And then we learned much later on, like, wait.
其实并不需要把尽可能多的钱放进去。
We don't necessarily need as much money in there as possible.
你知道的。
You know?
我们只需要用上所需的部分就行了。
And, like, let's let's, like, use what we need, essentially.
还有很多其他项目，出于各种原因，纷纷在评论中说，你看。
And a lot of, you know, like, other projects coming for all kinds of reasons into the comments to say, like, oh, look.
与这些其他平台相比，这里锁定的总价值只有这么多。
This is, like, only so much total value locked compared to these other platforms.
但它们完全是不同的东西。
It's like, well, they're completely different.
比如，一个是在质押并进行各种去中心化金融操作，另一个则是试图促进支付。
Like, on one, you're staking and doing all kinds of DeFi things, and then the other, you're trying to facilitate payments.
所以完全是不同的使用场景。
So completely different use case.
比较起来没什么意义。
Doesn't really make sense to compare.
我正试着回想我原本想到的第三个，它一直很突出，但此刻我想不起来了。
And I'm trying to think I had a third in mind that's been quite prominent, but it's slipping my mind at the moment.
是的。
Yeah.
明白了。
Gotcha.
也许我回头再想。
Maybe I'll come back.
也许另一个是这种每个人都会在家里自己的设备上运行节点的情况。
Maybe another one would be this kind of everyone's gonna run a node in their box at home sort of thing.
就像，是的。
Like Yeah.
那曾经是一种普遍的看法，我们很多人都这么认为。
That was a common you know, many of us believe that.
我觉得你刚才有点提到这一点。
I think you were kinda touching on that.
我还记得2019年10月在柏林举行的闪电网络会议。
Also, like, I remember at the lightning conference in Berlin in October 2019.
当时我正在通过远程连接到我在悉尼家里的节点，并进行了一笔闪电支付，那种感觉真的很新颖、很酷。
Like, I was, you know, connecting over tour to my node back home in Sydney at that time and making a lightning payment, and that was like it felt so new and cool.
但我觉得现在，人们更多只是使用手机应用或托管平台。
But I would say nowadays, it's more just like people are just using, a phone app or a custodial platform.
当然。
For sure.
而且这
And that's
这确实是大多数人的现状。
that's kinda where most of
他们现在都这样。
them are at.
现在是一个了。
One now.
是的。
Yeah.
我现在想起来第三个了，实际上，我记得闪电网络刚推出时，大家都对比特币的可扩展性感到非常担忧。
I'm remembering the third one now, actually, which is, I think when Lightning launched, I remember very vividly, everyone was so fearful and so concerned about Bitcoin's scalability.
我的看法是，我们当时的很多担忧都太早了。
And my take on that's been, like, like, a lot of our concerns are very premature.
如果这个系统无法支持80亿人使用，那它就被认为是失败的——这种说法多年来一直是这个领域的主要叙事。
If the system doesn't scale to 8,000,000,000 people, then it has failed, has been, like, a predominant narrative in the space for many years.
随着时间推移，这种说法有所减弱，因为人们开始意识到，等等。
Like, it's decreased a bit over time because people have started realizing, wait.
链上费用实际上非常低，所以这不是太大的问题。
On chain fees are actually really low, so it's not as much of a concern.
我实际上不认为可扩展性是比特币今天最大的挑战或问题。
I actually don't think scalability is Bitcoin's biggest, sort of, like, challenge or issue today.
如果它是的话，我会很高兴。
I would love it if it was.
那在某种程度上会是一个很大的奢侈问题。
That would be, you know, a a big luxury problem in a way to have.
另一方面，如果人们试图发送交易，会有很多痛苦和挣扎。
On the other hand, there would be a lot of pain and struggle with people trying to send transactions.
但事实上，今天的链上费用确实很低。
But practically today, you know, the on chain fees don't lie there low.
可扩展性并没有人们所宣称的那么成问题。
Scalability isn't as much of a concern as people, have made it out to be.
其中一部分原因是，它已经朝着不同的方向发展了。
And part of the reason there is, like, you know, it's, like, gone in different directions.
比如，很多人之前甚至前几天还问过，等等。
Like, a lot of people there was even the question the other day of, like, wait.
你是不是实际上发过它？
Did you might have actually posted it?
比如，闪电网络是否扩展得
Like, did Lightning scale
太好了？
too well?
我觉得是这样。
This, I think.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
比如，它是不是扩展得太好了？
Like, did it scale too well?
它是否从链上吸引了过多的交易？
And did it draw too many transactions from the chain?
你知道，交易所也在使用像Liquid这样的东西，以及其他各种方式在它们之间转移价值，把价值从主链上移走。
You know, the the way exchanges are using also things like liquid and whatnot and all kinds of other ways to exchange value between them, taking that value off the main chain.
像这样，问题并没有我们希望的那么严重。
Like, it's not as much of a problem as we'd like it to be.
老实说，在我看来，比特币今天最大的挑战其实是它的公众形象。
Honestly, in my view, today's biggest challenge for Bitcoin is actually its public image.
很多人仍然把它和加密货币混为一谈，觉得它就像……我昨天刚发过这条推文。
A lot of people still pile it in with crypto and think it's like you know, they've put it I I tweeted this yesterday.
我觉得，人们就像几年前那样，把比特币塞进了一个盒子，但那是错的盒子，就是他们脑子里的错误分类。
I think it's like, people are putting like, years ago, people put Bitcoin into a box, and it's the wrong box, like, sort of, like, in a box in their head, but it's the wrong box.
他们认为它和其他加密货币是一回事。
They think it's the same thing as other cryptocurrencies.
他们觉得它是个骗局。
They think it's a scam.
他们认为它出于某种原因是可以信赖的。
They think it can be trusted for whatever reason.
他们觉得它只是一种投机炒作，并且固守这种信念，要改变这种观念极其困难。
They think it's just, a speculative hype, and they're sticking with that belief, and changing that belief is incredibly difficult.
这正是比特币进一步发展的最大障碍。
And that is Bitcoin's, like, sort of, like, biggest hurdle to further growth.
如果我们能再次吸引更多人关注并热衷于比特币，那么不可避免地，我们会遇到可扩展性问题。
And then if we manage to get more people going there again and excited about Bitcoin, then inevitably, we will bump into scalability.
我确实相信这一点。
I do believe that.
我绝不是说可扩展性问题已经解决了。
I'm by no means saying scalability solved.
它更像是，相比我们最初预想的，挑战并没有那么大，因为我们不需要80亿人同时使用它。
It's more like it's not as big of a challenge as we initially thought it would be because we don't need 8,000,000,000 people on there.
当你仔细想想，机场也不可能同时运送80亿人，就像飞机、机场以及所有相关的基础设施一样。
It's like when you when you think about it, like, airports can't transfer 8,000,000,000 people at any instance either, like airplanes and airports and all of that infrastructure that's there.
这并不意味着它们没有用，或者这种技术对全球来说不是极其有帮助的。
It doesn't mean that they're not useful or that, you know, it's not incredibly helpful technology to the entire planet.
难道我们就该放弃所有无法立即在全球范围内扩展的事物吗？
Like, should we just give up on everything that doesn't scale immediately to the entire planet?
不，不是这样的。
It's like, no.
这根本说不通。
That doesn't really make sense.
奶牛也无法在全球范围内扩展。
Cows also don't scale globally.
它们不可能在任何地方吃草。
Like, they can't they can't they can't graze everywhere.
今天它们也无法被带到全球每一个角落。
They can't be taken all over the planet today.
有很多地方它们根本无法茁壮成长。
There's just a lot of places where they wouldn't thrive.
所以它们无法为全球每个人提供肉类。
So they can't produce meat for everyone around the planet.
甚至不是每个人都想吃肉。
Not even everyone wants to eat meat.
这并不意味着，举个很荒谬的例子，但并不意味着牛就没有意义，所以我们应该完全放弃食用牛肉或相关的一切。
Doesn't mean that, you know, very silly example, but doesn't mean that cows don't make sense, so we should just abandon eating those and doing anything with that.
这种逻辑就像我在闪电网络早期看到的那样，当时每个人都不断反驳说，是的。
That kind of logic, it's like, I saw this very much in the early years of Lightning where everyone kept pushing back and saying, yeah.
但如果并非每个比特币用户都能拥有自己的闪电网络通道并以非托管方式使用它，那么它就立即失败了。
But if not every single Bitcoin user can have their own Lightning channel and use this in a noncustodial way, then it's immediately failed.
这是一种非常自我挫败的思路，我们正在让‘完美’成为‘良好’的敌人。
And it's like a very self defeating approach where we're trying like, we're letting good be the sort of, like, perfect be the enemy of good.
我们完全可以利用这项技术做很多事情。
We can do lot with this technology.
我绝不是那种认为这将是解决所有人和所有问题方案的人，但你确实看到了它的进展。
I'm by no means someone who says, like, this is going to be the solution for everyone and everything, but we are you know, you're seeing it.
人们不管那些观点，仍在以非常积极的方式使用它。
Like, people are using it regardless of those opinions and using it in a very constructive ways for them.
所以
So
是的
Yeah.
我认为这一直是
I think that's been a
一个巨大的演变。
really big evolution.
我想知道，从闪电网络拓扑的角度来看，你是否注意到这一点。
I'm curious whether you see, like, from a Lightning topology perspective.
这在闪电网络早期曾被批评为：它会走向中心化。
Like, that was another criticism leveled in the earlier days of, oh, it's gonna centralize.
它会变成一种中心辐射型模式。
It's gonna be this kind of hub and spoke model.
这有道理吗？
Is there a truth to that or not?
还是你怎么看这个问题？
Or how are you seeing that?
我认为我们之前提到的，它主要围绕交易所发展，这确实是一个正在发生的现象。
I think to our point earlier of, like, it emerging primarily around exchanges, that is definitely a thing that happens.
我们并没有确切的数据，说明从支付的起点到终点有多少资金是集中起来的，但我估计比例非常高。
There there's no like, we don't have data on exactly, like, how much, you know, how much would be concentrated from, like, start to end of payments there, but I imagine it's very high.
因此，确实存在一定程度的中心化。
So there is certainly a centralization.
我也认为，在早期阶段这种中心化是合乎逻辑的；随着支付作为应用场景越来越多，比如Square正在为大量商户推广这一功能，当越来越多的人开始用比特币进行支付时，各种用途都会随之涌现。
I also think that is logical in the early stages still, and the more payments start coming up as a use case, and we're seeing this with Square rolling this out to so many of their merchants, the more that starts becoming a thing, the more people will start using Bitcoin for payments for all kinds of use cases.
而随着这种情况持续发展，我认为随着时间推移，竞争逐渐出现，系统会越来越去中心化。
And the more that happens, the more I think it starts to decentralize over time as competition starts coming up.
越来越多的钱包开始出现，人们也开始更好地了解这项技术还能实现哪些其他可能性。
You know, more and more wallets start emerging, and people just start educating themselves better on, like, what else is possible with the this technology.
但如果这种早期的网络效应和对使用闪电网络的热情不存在，即使它尚未完全实现非托管，也未在整个网络中完全去中心化，而是存在某种集中化，那么我也真的看不到它走向更去中心化方向的路径。
But if that early sort of, like, network effect and eagerness to be using Lightning isn't there, even though it's not fully noncustodial yet and it's not fully decentralized across an entire network, but there's, like, a certain concentration, then I also, like, I just don't really see the path towards, like, growing in a more decentralized direction either.
就像你看比特币本身在早期几年，当时全球运行节点的人也寥寥无几。
Like, this is one of those like, if you look at Bitcoin itself as well in the very early years, there were only so many people running nodes around the world as well.
你知道的？
You know?
我没有具体数据，但你知道的？
Like, I don't have the numbers, but it's you know?
起初，人们对此抱有想法，但在最早几个月里只有几十个，后来逐渐增长到数百、数千个。
Well, initially, people have their mind with it, but it started out with a couple dozen in the in the earliest months and probably grew to hundreds and thousands eventually.
但网络实现去中心化需要很长时间。
But it just takes a lot of time for the network to to decentralize.
而我们今天看到的是，比特币网络本身已有数万个节点，但个人采用的速度仍快于新节点加入网络的速度。
And what we're seeing today as well is, like, Bitcoin network itself has tens of thousands of nodes, but adoption of individuals keeps growing faster than new nodes are getting added to the network.
换句话说，每个节点所服务的总用户数，这两者如今并没有同步增长。
Like, the the total population per node is essentially like, those two things aren't tracking today.
所以你也可以对比特币提出同样的观点。
So you could argue the same thing for Bitcoin.
它并没有进一步去中心化。
It's like it's not decentralizing further.
因此，很多人以托管方式使用比特币，因为他们依赖他人的节点——虽然这两者略有不同，但本质上，他们信任其他方来完成持有比特币时的某些功能。
And as a result, you know, a lot of people are using it in custodial ways because they're relying on someone else's nodes to well, those two things are slightly different, but, basically, like, they're trusting other parties for certain functions within holding Bitcoin.
这是一种非常相似的模式。
And it's a very similar pattern.
当我认为，如果你看所有指标，比特币其实非常去中心化时，我们是否也应该指出比特币也没有进一步去中心化呢？
It's like, should we start calling out Bitcoin there as, like, not decentralizing further there either when I think if you look at all the metrics, like, Bitcoin is very decentralized.
而什么是完美的去中心化呢？是的。
And what is perfect decentralization as well is yeah.
我不想在这里说得太哲学，但是
Don't wanna get too philosophical there, but
对。
Yeah.
我觉得，这其实是一个趋势。
I think, like, it's a it's a trajectory.
我认为，最关键的是看人们是否愿意走这条路，那就是：到底有没有交易量、活跃度和兴趣？
And I think the most important part to seeing, like, are people even willing to go down that path is, like, is there volume and activity and interest at all?
如果这些也不存在，那么
And if that isn't there either, then
是的。
Yeah.
而这其实又回到了你为什么要做这份报告，你是在展示：嘿。
Which I guess comes back to why you're doing this report and you're showing, hey.
至少在闪电网络方面，是有增长的。
There's growth, at least on the Lightning side.
而且，就用户而言，我知道你在发给我的一些笔记里提到，所有权或至少所有权的转移也在增长。
And then even just in terms of users, I know you in some of the notes you sent, there's also a growth in the, like, ownership or at least shifts in the ownership.
我想，这最近也是一个热门话题。
And, like, I guess that's also been a big narrative recently.
人们在谈论所谓的IPO时刻，也就是那些元老级玩家正在抛售比特币、将资产重新配置到其他领域这个说法。
People talking about, you know, the I the so called IPO moment, this idea of, you know, oh, the OGs are selling, and they're rebalancing out of Bitcoin into other assets.
这一直是一个非常主流的叙事。
And this has been kind of a very prevailing narrative.
你发现了什么？你的分析结果如何？
What what are you finding, and what's your analysis been there?
很多人显然都在寻找价格下跌的原因。
So a lot of people are, obviously, a lot of people are searching for, like, why has the price gone down?
因为他们听说了这些机构都在买入。
Because they hear about it, you know, all these institutions buying.
我们昨天刚发布了一个可视化数据，显示如今有3000家机构持有比特币。
We just put out a visual yesterday of, like, 3,000 institutions hold Bitcoin today.
大约90%的顶级投资顾问，以及美国60%的顶级对冲基金都在其中。
It's something like 90% of the top, investment advisers, like 60% of the top hedge funds in The US.
一半的银行都在开发比特币相关产品。
Like, half the banks are building Bitcoin products.
人们听到了所有这些信息。
People hear all of these messages.
他们听说迈克尔·塞拉购买比特币的策略，以及过去几年里成千上万家公司一直在积累比特币。
They hear about Michael Saylor buying and strategy and, you know, all of these thousands of companies that have been accumulating over the past years.
这让人很难理解，为什么尽管有这么多情况，价格却还在下跌。
And it makes it so hard to fathom, like, why is the price going down despite all of that.
我认为你提到的OG抛售，正是链上数据所显示的。
And I think to your point of, like, OG selling is like that's like what on chain data tells us.
很难否认这些币确实在流动。
It's very hard to deny that those coins have been moving.
其中一部分资金可能流向了黄金，因为黄金表现良好，而人工智能在过去一年里也成为了一个非常吸引人的领域。
And partially, it will be, like, moving into gold doing well, AI being a very attractive area that a lot of people have been very interested in over the past year.
这显然也起到了重要作用。
That obviously plays a big role as well.
还有一件引人注目的事情正在发生，就像2021年比特币市场上演的那样——人们开始追逐各种其他代币和币种，2017年之前也出现过类似情况，因为人们总是有一种想法：想在低价时入场，想抓住当下人人都在谈论的热点，即使从理性角度看这毫无意义，或者某些东西其实被高估了，基本面也并未发生太大变化。
There's been another flashy thing coming up, which is, like, the same thing we saw play out in Bitcoin in 2021 when people started pursuing all kinds of other tokens and coins and same thing before that in 2017 because people just have this this idea of, like, wanting to get in at a good price and wanting to get the whole thing that everyone's talking about now even if rationally that makes no sense, or if rationally some things are overvalued or haven't fundamentally changed too much.
还有很多类似这种更偏向投资者的讨论。
There's, like, lots of that's, like, more, like, investor type debates.
但这确实是我们看到的一个趋势，你也提到了其中一个。
But it's certainly a trend that we've seen, and you touched on one there as well.
有些人只是把他们自己保管的比特币转移到了某种税务更优惠的安排中，比如通过ETF或通过持有股票的 treasury 公司。
It's, like, some people have just rotated their self custody Bitcoin into some kind of tax advantageous setup for themselves, And that's like a you know, through ETFs or through, treasury companies with stocks.
所以这也是一个趋势。
So that's been a bit of a trend there as well.
我认为这其中很多都是合乎逻辑的。
I think a lot of this is also logical.
我们这里有一些数据，显示了这些个人转移或出售了多少比特币，具体取决于实际情况。
We have some numbers here showing sort of, like, how much Bitcoin has been moved by those individuals, moved or sold depending on what it is exactly.
2025年大约有70万枚比特币被转移，但这只占3%的变动。
So almost 700,000 Bitcoin in 2025, but it's like a 3% shift.
简单来说，2025年初，个人持有的比特币约占总量的70%，而到年底，这一比例降至67%。
So, basically, start of 2025, individuals had, like, 70% of all the Bitcoin by estimation, our estimation, and then by the end of the year, that was 67%.
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所以这是3%的转移。
So that's a 3% shift.
在图表上看，这看起来非常令人担忧。
It looks very daunting on a graph.
好像所有人都在抛售。
It's like, oh, all these people are selling.
他们疯了。
They're crazy.
他们为什么要把自己的比特币卖给贝莱德、华尔街这些人呢？
Why are they selling their Bitcoin to BlackRock and and Wall Street and all
这些
these
家伙？
guys?
但你知道，他们还能去哪儿买呢？
But, you know, where else are they gonna buy it as well?
因为在2025年之前，这些人持有的比特币并没有那么多。
Because before 2025, it's not like these guys were holding as much Bitcoin.
所以，逻辑上会有一些人选择卖出。
So, logically, there's gonna be some individuals who sell.
我认为在未来十年或二十年里，一个非常关键的问题是：个人愿意以什么价格把比特币卖给机构？
And I think a really big question over the or, like, kinda like the next decade or two is gonna be at what price are individuals willing to sell to the institutions?
因为确实有很多人有明确的卖出价格。
Because a lot of people do actually have a price.
但并不是所有人都这样。
Not everyone does.
有些人会说，我会永远持有比特币。
Some people are like, I'm holding Bitcoin forever.
我不在乎美元之类的，但这只是所有比特币持有者中的一部分。
I don't care about dollars, etcetera, but that's a portion of all the Bitcoiners.
而另一部分人会说，如果涨到一百万美元，我就卖。
And another portion will say, you know, if it reaches a million, I will sell.
或者当价格达到50万美元或1000万美元时，人们会有个心理价位，愿意卖出一部分。
Or if it reaches 500 k or 10,000,000, people have a price where they're willing to sell some of it.
大多数人都是这样。
Most of them.
因此，我们预计在未来几十年里，这种转变将继续下去，企业和ETF会持续买入更多比特币。
So we're gonna see that shift probably continue over the next decades, we imagine, where the businesses and the ETFs just keep buying up more.
是的。
Yeah.
正如你提到的，关于所有权的不同趋势和模式，还有你所说的，现在可获得的贷款和金融工具也有了新的开放。
So as you mentioned, these different trends around ownership and the patterns and, yeah, as you said, there's been this new opening of access in terms of what loans are available to you or what facilities are available.
也许他们转投iBit，是因为想用它作为抵押借款，因为利率更低等等。
Maybe they're switching into iBit because they want to borrow against that because it's a cheaper rate, etcetera.
你知道，这是一些不同的因素。
You know, that's kind of a few things.
你还会看到那些广为流传的著名案例，我们正看到越来越多的机构进入市场。
And you see these famous stories that kind of go around, and we are seeing, you know, different institutions come in also.
对吧？
Right?
主权财富基金。
Sovereign wealth funds.
阿联酋有一些已知购买过的。
There are some in The UAE that are known to have bought.
还有卢森堡。
There's Luxembourg.
还有捷克国家银行。
There's there's Czech National Bank.
还有萨尔瓦多，你知道的，还有一些国家，不丹也是一个重要的例子。
There is El Salvador, there's like you know, there's different countries who are Bhutan is another big one.
他们一直在进行比特币挖矿。
They've been doing all this Bitcoin mining.
所以全球各地都在发生这些不同的举动，我想人们之前对这一进程的速度以及价格上升的速度有些过于乐观了，对吧？
So there's like a lot of these different moves happening all around the world, and I guess people were overexuberant, right, or in terms of how quickly that would happen and how quickly the number go up would happen.
所以也许这就是为什么现在有些人情绪有些低落，但事实上，有许多机构正在进入，其中一些甚至在抄底。
And so maybe that's why some people now sort of like the sentiment is a bit down right now, but the truth is there are a lot of these institutions coming in and some of them are even buying the dip.
所以这有点讽刺，你知道，本应是看涨的消息。
So it's kind of funny that there's sort of this, you know, bullish news.
本该是看涨的消息，但价格却下跌了。
It should what should be bullish news, but apparently the price is down.
那你对这种情况和机构采用怎么看？
So what do you make of that and institutional adoption?
真的很难以置信。
It's it's unbelievable to see, really.
如果十年前你问一个比特币爱好者，跟他们解释现在这个领域发生的所有事情，再告诉他们当时的币价，我想很多人会非常困惑。
Like, if you would have asked a Bitcoiner, like, ten years ago, sort of, like, explained all of the things that are happening now in this space and then told them what the price was at that point, I think a lot like, lot of people would be very confused.
等等。
Like, wait.
现在有三千家机构持有比特币。
There's so there's 3,000 institutions that have it.
有大约30个国家以某种方式持有比特币。
There's, like, 30 countries that hold Bitcoin, like, kinda, like, one way or another.
怎么可能只在7万美元左右？
Like, how could it only be at, like, 70 k?
这完全说不通。
That makes absolutely no sense.
难道不是应该达到50万甚至100万美元吗？
Like, what you know, wouldn't it be at half 1,000,000 or 1,000,000 at that point?
到底发生了什么？
Like, what's going on?
我确实能理解很多人在这里的困惑。
So I get a lot of people's confusion there for sure.
我认为机构采用确实推动了大部分价格走势。
And I think the institutional adoption has been you know, it's it's driven a lot of price action there.
说实话，我认为情绪低迷的最大原因，对很多人来说，是他们真心希望个人投资者能入场。
What I think honestly, what I think the biggest reason for the sentiment being down is for a lot of people is, like, they really wish the individual would get in.
很多比特币爱好者都感到个人沮丧，因为他们的朋友和家人仍然在忽视比特币，尤其是考虑到美国顶尖银行中有60%正在围绕它开发产品。
A lot of Bitcoiners are, like, personally frustrated that their friends and family are, like, still dismissing it, especially given that, again, like, 60% of the top banks in The US are building products around this.
一半的顶级对冲基金都持有比特币，比如投资顾问推荐的那些。
Half the top hedge funds hold Bitcoin, like, the invent register investment advice.
这些人都在纷纷入场。
Like, all of these guys are getting in.
所有这些大企业首席执行官都在赞扬它，称它是一种令人惊叹的资产，他们以各种方式对此非常感兴趣。
All these big CEOs are praising it and and, like, calling it, like, a phenomenal asset that they're really interested in in a variety of ways.
你已经提到过一些这种情况，比如主权财富基金和央行都在买入。
You already mentioned some of these, like sovereign wealth funds, central banks buying.
尽管如此，人们还是能把自己的头埋进沙子里，告诉自己：我错过比特币了。
And despite all of that, people still manage to sort of, like, stick their head into the sand and tell themselves, like, I'm too late to Bitcoin.
它不值得投资，诸如此类。
It wasn't worth it, etcetera.
我认为，这正是导致比特币爱好者感到个人沮丧、情绪低迷的原因，因为你心里会想：等等。
I think that that's what causes a lot of individual frustration with Bitcoiners and sentiment to be down because you're like, wait.
现在价格在七千美元一比特币的时候，你正面临着一个世代难得的机会入场。
You have a generational opportunity right here when the price is at 7 k a k to get in.
你听到所有人都对它持积极态度，而且数据显示他们一个季度接一个季度地持续积累。
You hear all of these people speaking positively about it, and you see in the data that they're accumulating more quarter after quarter.
这些数据，你知道，他们可能根本懒得去看。
Data, you know, they're probably not even bothering to look at.
但所有证据都表明，这些聪明的钱一直在买入，而你却依然无动于衷。
But, like, all the evidence is there that all of this sort of, like, smart money keeps buying, and you're still just not doing it.
我知道，你2017年时不信任它，2021年时因为加密货币骗局泛滥、不确定这东西能不能撑下去，你也不信任它，我懂。
Like, you know, I get it that you didn't trust it in 2017, get it that you didn't trust it in 2021 with all of the crypto scams going around and no idea if this thing was gonna stick around.
但到了现在，如果人们还是不明白，那确实会让人感到无比沮丧。
But at this point, it's like if people still don't get it, then, yeah, there's just so much frustration around that.
我认为这对很多比特币持有者来说都是个个人挑战——如何让那些人真正听进去，跟他们说：嘿。
And I think that's probably a challenge for a lot of Bitcoiners personally of, like, getting, you know, getting through to those people and being like, hey.
拜托，老兄。
Come on, dude.
你在这里仍然拥有一个非常绝佳的机会。
You you still have a really phenomenal opportunity here.
因为正如我之前所说，到目前为止，很多人已经把比特币框定在了他们脑海中的一个错误类别里，但他们可能要等到为时已晚才会承认这一点。
Because at this point, like I had said earlier on, it's like a lot of people have sort of placed Bitcoin into a box in their mind, and it's the wrong box, but they're probably not gonna concede on that until it's much too late.
所以这确实是一个巨大的挑战，看到所有这些机构采用正在发生，而人们却依然觉得‘现在太晚了’，真是令人难以置信。
So that's that's honestly a really big challenge there, and it's just crazy to see all that institutional adoption happening, and people are just like, you know, like, it's too it's still too late.
不，不是这样的。
And it's like, no.
那到底是什么？
Like, what is it?
如今，全球所有资金中只有0.02%左右被持有在比特币中。
Like, 0.02% or something like that of all money in the world is held in Bitcoin today.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我认为这取决于我们使用哪个指标。
I think it depends on which metric we're using.
比如，如果你看的是基础货币、M2、M3等等。
Like, if you're going by base money or m two and m three and so on.
还有像杰西·迈尔斯那样的图表，比如说，好吧。
And then there's the, you know, the Jesse Myers kind of chart as well of, like, okay.
全球资产有1000万亿美元，而比特币大约是1500亿到2000亿美元左右？
1,000 trillion of assets in the world, and Bitcoin is, what, 1 and a half, 2,000,000,000,000 ish?
这些东西很难搞。
This stuff's hard.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道的？
You know?
我只是说，比例极低，然后看到黄金和白银在几天内就增加了相当于好几个比特币市值的金额，但人们还是认为比特币不可能快速上涨并为现在的人带来巨额收益。
I just say, like, extremely low percentage, And then seeing gold and silver add, like, multiple Bitcoin market caps over a couple days time and whatnot, and people still think that Bitcoin couldn't move very quickly and make a lot of money for now.
就是这样。
It's like yeah.
看到这种情况真的很奇怪。
That's very strange to see.
是的。
Yeah.
但我觉得对于黄金的情况，大概确实如此。
But I think I would say for the gold case, it's probably that yeah.
当然。
Sure.
确实也有一些个人在购买，但我认为这主要是由央行推动的。
There were some individuals buying too, but I think that's really central bank driven.
比如，人们谈论中国政府购买黄金之类的。
Like, you know, people talking about the Chinese government buying gold and so on.
所以，要与央行竞争真的很难，它们可是真的在购买这种资产。
So it's kind of hard to, you know, compete with, a central bank, you know, literally buying that kind of money or that kind of of the asset.
我认为比特币还达不到那个程度。
And I think Bitcoin is just not there yet.
目前，是的，捷克国家银行买了一些，但那更像是试验性的数量，可以说。
Right now, yes, the the Czech National Bank has bought some, but that was kind of more like a trial amount, let's say.
所以我认为可能是机构正在入场，但可能还没有达到人们预期的规模和程度。
So I think maybe it's just that institutions are coming in, but maybe just not at the size and scale that people had anticipated.
但反过来想，也许其中一些机构进场慢，退出也慢。
But I guess on the flip side, maybe some of them are sort of slower in but slower out too.
比如，他们可能不会那么快恐慌性抛售，因为他们的本性就是行动缓慢。
Like, they're maybe they're not as quick to kind of panic sell because they just they are just by nature slower moving.
是的。
So Yes.
看到这一点挺有意思的。
It's kind of interesting to see that.
那商业采用情况呢？
What about business adoption?
我知道你还有另一个部分讲这个。
I know you've got another section on that.
你对商业采用有什么看法吗？
Do you have any comments on business adoption?
是的。
Yeah.
这正是River公司非常关注的领域，因为我们看到了所有大型机构。
That's that's an area we've been really excited about at River because, like, we see all the big institutions.
我们本身也是比特币信仰者，也希望看到尽可能多的个人从中受益。
We're also, like, Bitcoiners at heart, and we wanna see as many individuals benefit from this as possible as well.
这不仅仅是那些富有的机构变得更富有。
It's not just, like, the same, like, wealthy institutions getting wealthier.
但在2025年，我们看到的情况是，平台新增了大约2000家商业客户。
But what we've been seeing there, like, in 2025, we added, like, 2,000 business clients to the platform.
我们现在拥有的客户已经超过3000家，可能快接近4000家了。
We now have over 3,000, I think, probably nearing 4,000 at this point.
尽管2025年大部分时间价格走势相对平稳，但这种增长速度依然非常迅猛，令人振奋。
And that growth has just been super fast and really exciting to see despite, like, price action being pretty sort of, like, even over much of 2025.
当我们观察哪些类型的企业在采用比特币时，这才是最令人兴奋的部分。
And when we look at the types of businesses that are adopting Bitcoin, that's the most exciting part.
比如，有农业公司、理发师、生物科技公司，甚至眼科医生。
Like, it's literally, like, agriculture companies is, you know, like, a hairdresser, biotech company, like eye doctor.
你几乎能看到各行各业的公司都在参与。
You get literally everything across the spectrum.
许多房地产投资者也用他们的公司资金购买比特币。
Lots of real estate investors as well are buying Bitcoin with their companies.
这是一个非常令人振奋的趋势，因为它正开始发生深刻演变——比特币不再仅仅是个人出于风险偏好而自行持有，而是越来越多的企业开始觉得，完全可以放心地将公司金库中闲置的资金投入其中。
And that's a really exciting trend to see because it's really starting to evolve, like Bitcoin starting to evolve to a point where it's not just like individuals personally taking, like, what they perceive as a risk with it, but they also start feeling comfortable enough to say, like, hey, all this this money that I've got sitting in the treasury of my company, I should not be letting that erode through inflation.
我应该让这些资金发挥作用，而比特币正是实现这一目标的绝佳方式。
I should actually put that to work, and Bitcoin's a really great way to do that.
我们非常期待看到这一趋势的发展。
That's been a trend that we're very exciting to very excited to see.
我们一直在看到那里的增长，不仅像MicroStrategy和比特币国库公司过去几年购买了大量比特币，许多小型公司也开始积累比特币，以便战略性地定位自己，更快地增长，并保护他们积累的购买力。
And we've been seeing a lot of growth there, not just from, like, obviously, like, MicroStrategy and the Bitcoin treasury companies have bought a lot of Bitcoin there over the past years, but so have a lot of these small companies that have started accumulating to be able to, like, position themselves strategically, to be able to grow faster than their peers, to be able to preserve the purchasing power that they built up.
我的意思是，世界上很多地方都依赖私营企业蓬勃发展并能够雇佣员工，因此这是我们看到的一个非常强大的趋势。
I mean, like, a lot of sort of the world thrives on private businesses doing well and being able to employ people, so that's been a super powerful trend that we've seen.
但有趣的是，这也让许多员工以之前从未真正考虑过的方式接触到了比特币，他们开始意识到：等等。
But also, interestingly enough, like, it exposes a lot of those employees to Bitcoin in the ways that they previously hadn't really considered where they're starting to see, like, wait.
如果比特币表现良好，这对我的企业也有好处。
This is really good for my business too if Bitcoin does well.
而这确实是这样。
And that's yeah.
这就像一个非常有趣的特洛伊木马，它为企业主提供了一个工具，向他们的企业展示：嘿。
It's just like a super interesting Trojan horse where it gives the business owner a tool to kind of show to their business, like, hey.
这是一样可以帮助我们建立和维持购买力，并在未来在各种方向上扩张的东西。
This is something that can help us build and and maintain our purchasing power and expand in all kinds of directions in the future.
这些企业主是进行了大比例配置，还是更倾向于先试探性地少量投入？
Are those business owners taking a large allocation, or is it more like they come in and they might dip their toes at first?
你能给我们讲讲，在企业采用比特币积累方面，你通常看到的典型案例吗？
Or can you tell us a little bit about, like, a typical story you're seeing there on the business adoption of Bitcoin stacking side?
是的。
Yeah.
显然，我们认为那里存在一个相当广泛的分布，而且很容易判断一个企业主是否真心认同比特币，因为他们往往会投入更多。
We we obviously, like I think we see a pretty big distribution there, and it's really like, it's quite easy to tell when a business owner is like a Bitcoiner at heart because they'll just put in a much Yeah.
更大的比例。
Larger Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
但你也会看到很多企业主，比如我们去年年底（大概是九月或十月）发布的企业报告中做了一项调查。
But you see you also see plenty of them that will like, we did a survey that's in our business reports that we put out in late sort of, like, late last year, I think, September, October or so.
如果有人对具体数字感兴趣，报告里有详细的分布情况。
And we showed the exact distribution there if people are curious about the numbers.
但凭记忆，有不少企业只是将1%到5%的资产，或者甚至100%的资产负债表资产配置到了比特币上。
But off the top of my head, there were quite a lot of businesses that also just put in, like, between, like, one and five percent or, like, 110% of the assets in their treasury into Bitcoin.
所以他们只是分配一小部分，这在统计上大致足以抵消通货膨胀，前提是基于比特币过去七十年的平均年复合增长率。
So they just take a small allocation, which is, like, statistically roughly enough to offset inflation if you take Bitcoin's average compounding annual growth rate over the past seventy years.
如果只是百分之几，这就足以抵消通货膨胀了。
That's enough to offset inflation if it's just, like, a few percent.
所以很多企业就是这样使用比特币的。
So that's how a lot of businesses use it.
并不是说，‘我想通过投机来提升我资产负债表的价值’。
Not so much like, oh, I'm trying to speculate on, like, will this increase the value of my treasury?
而是更倾向于：我只是想确保我的资产负债不会贬值，并通过小比例配置来熟悉它。
But much more like, I just wanna use it to make sure that I'm not losing value on my treasury and just get familiar with it with a small allocation.
我们还看到很多企业使用River平台的一项功能，即现金比特币利息。
And what we've also been seeing a lot of businesses do there is use a feature that we have on River, which is Bitcoin interest on cash.
他们把现金储备存入River，然后就能赚取比特币利息。
So they put their cash treasury into River, and then they earn Bitcoin interest on that.
这对很多公司来说也很有意思，因为这样他们不是通过购买，而是通过利息来获得比特币。
And that's been interesting for a lot of companies too because then instead of buying, they are earning it through interest.
这又是另一种做法，特别是如果你是一位企业主，拥有几位联合创始人或管理团队，而并非每个人都愿意直接投资比特币，那么你可以通过赚取利息来获得比特币，而不会让团队产生疑虑：这家伙到底在拿我们的资金做什么？
And that's just another way of doing it, especially, like, it's nice if you, you know, might be a business owner who has a couple of cofounders or a management team and not everyone feels comfortable actually investing in Bitcoin, well, you can just earn it and not, like, sort of, like, take on those the social risk of your team thinking, like, what the hell is this guy doing with our treasury?
这风险太大了。
That's way too much risk.
如果这损害了公司怎么办？
What if it hurts the business?
因此，这种方式也让企业更容易入场，而无需获得太多批准或内部共识。
So it also just becomes easier for businesses to get in in a way where they don't need to get as much approval or internal agreement.
所以总的来说，我们看到的是一个多样化的范围。
So, yeah, across the board, like, we're seeing a spectrum there.
有些人甚至根本不购买，只是通过利息赚取比特币；另一些人则进行小规模配置，并随着时间推移逐步增加，或者在机会来临时说：嘿。
Like, people who actually don't even buy, they just earn through interest, and people who do smaller allocations and over time sort of start sizing that up or or kind of, like, opportunistically saying, like, hey.
现在价格低多了。
The price is a lot lower now.
我们上个季度表现非常好。
We had a really good quarter.
我们可以在季度末再分配更多资金，看看接下来会怎样。
Let's allocate a bunch more at the end of the quarter and, you know, see where that takes us over the next while.
是的。
Yeah.
我们还会问那些
What we also ask those
我接下来想问的是关于这一点的。
business my next question around that.
比如，你们发现他们是每月定期定额投资，还是更倾向于策略性地在价格下跌时买入？
Like, are you finding that they are doing, a typical DCA every month, or are they doing more, like, just kind of strategically trying to buy a dip here and there?
对于这些购买比特币的企业主，你们通常看到他们采取什么样的策略？
What's kind of the typical strategy you see for some of these business owners who are buying Bitcoin?
对。
Yeah.
同样，这中间的分布差异相当大。
Again, like, a pretty big distribution.
有些人确实采用定期定额投资。
It's like some of them DCA indeed.
比如，我们会把周末或月底剩下的、觉得可以安心投入的资金拿去投资，或者干脆做固定的金额分配。
Like, it's like whatever we have left over at the end of the week or month that we feel comfortable putting in, or we just, like, do a specific fixed allocation.
但我觉得，其中相当一部分人是非常机会主义的，看手头有什么资金、什么时候能用就什么时候投。
But a lot of I I think, like, a good portion of them are very opportunistic kind of, like, what we have available and when we can use it.
现金流预测对 businesses 来说已经够复杂了。
Cash flow predictions are already complicated enough for businesses.
对他们来说，如果你还得考虑每周固定要买一千美元的比特币，这会让很多人的财务规划变得更加复杂。
To them, like, if you also have to factor in, like, I always wanna buy a thousand dollars in Bitcoin a week or so, that just adds more complexity to the mix for many of them.
所以很多人会根据自己的感觉，在觉得最合适的时机进行操作。
So a lot of them will kind of, like, move whenever they feel it makes most sense for them.
我觉得，这其实是一种相当谨慎的做法。
And I think, like, that's you know, it's like a a prudent way of going about it.
对他们而言，首要目标显然应该是确保业务运转良好。
It's like the the primary focus for them should obviously be making sure their business does well.
如果企业经营得好，那么他们就能在觉得合适的时候做出行动。
And if the business does well, then that will allow them to make moves when they think it makes sense.
是的。
Yeah.
我很感兴趣。
I'm interested.
我想知道你对个人投资者有什么看法、数据或分析吗？
I'm curious if you have any thoughts or stats or analysis on individuals then.
比如，你看到的个人投资者典型的定投和提取模式是什么样的？还是说，他们通常是拿到一笔一次性资金，比如卖了房产之类的，就直接一次性投入？
Like, what's the pattern that you like, are you seeing the typical, like, DCA and withdrawal pattern for individuals, or is it a similar kind of, here, I've got a lump sum that I got from selling a property or whatever, I'm just gonna load that in now.
你在那里观察到什么情况？
Like, what what what what are you seeing there?
你看到个人客户有哪些行为模式？
What behavior are you seeing for the, like, individual customers?
是的。
Yeah.
过去一年里，很多比特币持有者是在价格大约一千美元左右时入场的，他们更倾向于采用美元成本平均法，定期买入，因为他们不确定价格会往哪个方向走。
A a lot of a lot of Bitcoiners who've gotten in over the past year, I think, while the price, like, it was, like, a k plus or so, a lot of people there have sort of preferred, like, dollar cost averaging, having a recurring buying just for, like, the don't know where the price is going.
价格会大幅上涨吗？
Is it gonna go up a lot more?
还是会下跌？
Or is it gonna go down?
还是会维持在当前水平一段时间？
Is it gonna stay here for a while?
我认为，当人们不太确定价格走向时，就更倾向于更多地使用美元成本平均法。
I think, like, when people don't feel as certain where the price is gonna go, that's when they like to dollar cost average more.
而当人们觉得现在捡到便宜了的时候。
And when people feel like, oh, I'm getting a steal right now.
价格就像过去一段时间那样大幅下跌了。
The price is way down like it has been over the past while.
你通常会看到更多集中买入的行为，人们会尽可能多地现货买入，或者设置目标价格订单，预期价格可能会比现在更低。
You just typically see a lot more kind of like smash buying, like people spot buying as much as they're able to or setting setting up target price orders, kind of imagining like the price might dip lower than it is now.
那我得多买一点了。
Let me scoop up a bunch then.
所以从某种意义上说，这确实是有季节性的。
So it's like it is certainly seasonal in some sense there.
人们越有把握，或者觉得自己占了便宜，就越会立即做出决定；越没有把握，就越会采取对冲策略，更谨慎行事。
It's like the the more certainty people individually feel or, like, the more they feel like they're getting a good deal, the more they will immediately make decisions and the less certainty, the more they kind of, like, hedge that and play it a little bit safer.
是的。
Yeah.
我还想再补充一点，关于那个……你接着说。
And I think it's just One more note on the so oh, go on.
再从商业角度补充一点，因为我们其实也问过你刚才提到的问题：他们的行为是怎样的？
One more note on the business side because we had also actually asked the question you were asking, like, what was their behavior?
我们也问过他们关于展望的问题：你的看法如何？
We had asked them the question as well on, like, like, what's your outlook?
你打算怎么处理这些比特币？
Like, what are you planning to do with this Bitcoin?
你是打算长期持有这笔比特币吗？
Are you, like, looking to hold on to this for the long term?
你计划继续积累更多吗？
Are you planning to accumulate more?
你也会计划在价格上涨时卖出一部分吗？
Are you planning to sell some off of the price as well?
通常，我们在这方面看到了普遍现象。
And, typically, we saw there across the board.
我觉得绝大多数人都会说：我打算长期持有，并在合适的时候继续积累更多。
Like, I think the vast majority of people are like, I'm planning to hold this for the long run and, like, keep accumulating more where it makes sense.
所以人们确实有这种长期展望，这一点在我们的个人客户身上也得到了体现。
So people definitely have that, like, long term outlook, and that's something we also see reflected with the individual clients.
但这也是River业务所瞄准的方向。
But that's obviously also what we target with River.
我们并不是那种急于吸引用户、最大限度地榨取价值，然后自己赚得盆满钵满、客户却满腹怨言的平台。
Like, we're not we're not a platform that tries to draw people in as quickly as possible, like, maximally extract value from them, and then, you know, we're a happy business, but they're an unhappy client.
恰恰相反。
It's the opposite.
我们希望找到那些希望长期积累、确保自己取得成功并表现优异的人。
Like, we're looking to find people who wanna build something up in the long run, make sure that they win and do really well.
作为一家公司，我们也会因此受益。
And and then we will also do well as a result as a company.
但自然地，我们也会吸引到这样的人。
But naturally, we also we attract that.
所以，这一点在数据中也自然地体现出来了。
So naturally, that's also what we see reflected in the data.
但并非整个行业都是如此。
And that might not be everywhere in the industry.
许多平台服务于企业和个人。
A lot of platforms that serve businesses and individuals.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为对大多数人来说，另一件极其重要的事是，我们怎么强调都不为过，就是在熊市里定期定额买入。
I think the other thing that is so important for most people, it's almost like we can't reiterate this enough, like, just DCA ing during the bear markets.
对吧？
Right?
因为如果你在这个行业待得够久，经历过不止一轮周期，你就知道这有多么重要。
Like, it is so so important because if you've been around for a while, you've been you've been through you know, if it's not your first rodeo, like, it is so important.
你在熊市或大幅下跌时积累的聪聪（sats），价值真的非常高。
These sats that you stack now in the bear markets or in these big dips, like, they are so valuable.
这看起来很矛盾，因为很多人并没有意识到这一点。
And it's paradoxical because a lot of people don't don't realize that.
而发生的情况是，这时候那些典型的比特币看空者会出来耀武扬威，说：看吧，比特币五年前就这个价了，现在你亏了，你们都是一群傻瓜。
And what happens because what happens is at this time, you're seeing the the typical Bitcoin bears, they're out kind of doing a victory lap, and they're saying, well, look, see, Bitcoin was this price, whatever, five years ago or whatever.
这就是我们每一轮周期都会看到的典型叙事，像时钟一样准时。
And look you're down now, you're all a bunch of idiots, this kind of that's the normal you know the narrative that we see every cycle right it's like clockwork.
但问题在于，这不过是把两个时间点简单地拿来比较而已。
But the thing is that's just comparing like point in time to point in time.
而如果你一直在定期定额投资，每天、每周，甚至每月都坚持，你就是在利用这种波动性，一旦比特币再次回到历史新高，你就已经远远领先了。
Whereas if you were just doing DCA DCA DCA you know every day every week maybe even every month, if you're just doing that, you were like taking advantage of that volatility so that like once Bitcoin gets back again to all time highs, you're just way ahead.
所以我觉得这非常违反直觉。
And so I think it's it's very counterintuitive.
大多数人其实都理解不了这一点。
Like, most people don't get that part.
因此，我觉得这对人们来说非常重要，一定要真正记住：你得放眼长远。
And so, you know, I think it's just such an important thing for people to, like, really remember that, like, you've gotta you've gotta zoom out.
你必须着眼于长期，但说起来容易做起来难。
You've gotta be long for long term focused, but it's it's it's easier said than done.
是的。
Yeah.
很多人的问题就在于缺乏耐心。
That's where a lot of people struggle patience.
而我们现在的社会，这一点确实让我们很担忧。
And a lot of our society now, when we like, this concerns us a lot actually.
比如，看看那些交易所，早期刚开始提供比特币，接着又推出其他加密货币，然后转向迷因币，现在几乎都变成了预测和博彩市场。
Like, looking at how exchanges that early on start offering Bitcoin then start offering, like, crypto other crypto coins, then went into meme coins, now are, like, essentially becoming, like, prediction and gambling markets.
这是一个非常令人担忧的趋势，因为我看到和我同龄的人会问：为什么我要买比特币？
It's a very concerning trend to see because, like, I see people my age who are just like, why would I buy Bitcoin?
因为如果我不靠运气和精准判断，就不可能一夜暴富，赚到一百倍的回报。
Because I can't, you know, magically 100 x my money if I get lucky and make a smart call.
这种长期思维正在很多人身上消失，而许多公司正是利用这一点，想方设法让这些人上瘾。
Like, that long term mindset is disappearing for a lot of people, and you have all these companies who are preying on that and kind of trying to figure out ways to, you know, get these people hooked or whatever.
正因为如此，我们对River感到非常庆幸——当人们放心地把朋友和家人介绍给我们时，因为他们知道，这些人不会注册后一周就收到一封邮件，说：嘿。
And, like, this is where we're very grateful with River where when people feel comfortable sending their friends and family over to us because they know that they're not gonna sign up, and a week later, they'll get an email like, hey.
为什么不把你的全部积蓄的10%投到你的屁币里呢？它可能会让你赚一大笔钱。
Why don't you put 10% of your life savings in your fart coin because it might make you a whole whole bunch of money.
或者，为什么不赌一下下周这场体育比赛的天气，再猜猜最终比分是多少？
Or why don't you bet on what the weather is gonna be next week during this sports game combined with what the score is gonna be?
看到整个社会的思维方式都转向这些东西，确实令人担忧，因为这使得所有这些平台都能最大限度地从人们身上榨取价值。
It's like, you know, seeing the entire mind shift of society towards that stuff is very concerning to see because it, you know, just allows all these platforms to extract as much value from people as possible.
每个人都希望获得一笔横财，从而摆脱他们当前所处的法币体系，而比特币恰恰与这种想法完全相反。
Everyone's kinda hoping for that magical hit of getting lots of money and sort of getting out of the fiat race that they're currently in, whereas Bitcoin's like the polar opposite of that.
但人们在心理上把所有这些行为都与某种投机、贪婪、怪异的环境联系在一起，而比特币其实与这些截然不同。
But people, like, mentally associate all of that with some kind of speculative, you know, like, greedy, like, strange environment, but Bitcoin's so different from all of that.
仅仅因为比特币与这些其他活动共享相同的平台，也损害了它的声誉。
It's just the fact that it lives on the same platforms as those other activities doesn't help its reputation either.
因此，这是我们普遍看到的一个令人担忧的趋势，我们确实努力与之划清界限，因为
So that's, like, a concerning trend in general that we see and something we definitely, you know, try to distance ourselves from because
那么我的跟进问题是，我知道你曾经谈过这个观点，即人们应该以何种方式传播比特币，或者他们根本是否应该传播比特币？
So my follow-up then is, I know you've spoken about this idea of, you know, what is the form of evangelism that people should do, or should they evangelize Bitcoin at all?
关于比特币传播这个问题，你现在的看法是什么？
Where are you at on this question of Bitcoin evangelism?
我对这个问题有很多想法。
I have so many thoughts about this.
我曾经和很多人反复探讨过这个问题。
I've, like, I've gone through this with a lot of people over time.
但我的看法是，很多比特币爱好者确实太热情了，我完全理解为什么，但他们总是过于积极地向朋友和家人灌输比特币，甚至说：不行。
But my take on it is, like, a lot of Bitcoiners have been too like, and I totally get why, but a lot of Bitcoiners have been over enthusiastically pushing this upon their friends and family and being like, no.
别这样。
Come on.
你真的得读一读这本比特币的书，或者必须听所有这些播客。
Like, you really have to read this Bitcoin book or you gotta listen to all of these podcasts.
看看我发给你的这些视频，读读这些文章。
Watch these videos I'm sending you, read these articles.
对很多人来说，比特币爱好者如此热情地强推，反而让他们无法真正接受。
It like, for a lot of people, it doesn't land in the way that the Bitcoiner enthusiastically, like, pushes it onto that person.
你得找到人们真正所处的位置。
You have to find people kind of, like, where they're at.
很多人都喜欢这么说。
That's what a lot of people like to say.
但这确实是真的。
But it's really true.
比如，很多人根本不会记得你跟他们说过比特币的哪些具体内容。
Like, if you like, a lot of people aren't gonna remember what exactly you said to them about Bitcoin.
他们不会记得你用了什么具体的例子或比喻来让比特币变得更容易理解。
They're not gonna remember what, like, you know, what exact example you were giving or metaphor to make Bitcoin really accessible.
比如，说是数字能量之类的。
Like, oh, it's, like, digital energy or whatever.
人们不会记得这些细节，但他们一定会记得你让他们感受到的情绪。
Like, people aren't gonna remember a lot of that stuff, but they will just remember how you made that person feel.
这其实几乎适用于你谈论的每一个话题。
Like, it's kinda like a a thing for almost every topic you talk about.
每次你遇到他们，只要一提起比特币，你就成了那个烦人的比特币狂热者，总是硬塞比特币给他们，或者总在对话中找机会插进比特币，提醒他们应该投资比特币、做点什么。
And when every time you bump into them, you bring up Bitcoin, you become that annoying Bitcoin guy who's always, like, pushing it into their face or who is waiting for the first opportunity in a conversation to introduce Bitcoin there and remind them that they should be investing in Bitcoin and doing something with it.
如果你总是从‘我想把比特币介绍给这个人’或者‘尽快把比特币塞进对话里’这种想法出发，那你其实也没在认真听他们说话。
And if you're always, like, starting those conversations from, like, I want to introduce Bitcoin to this person or, like, push it into this conversation as quickly as possible, then you're you're, like, you're also not really listening to them.
你只是在等一个机会好把比特币扯进来。
You're just waiting for an opportunity to bring it up.
这显然会让人感到沮丧，因为他们正试图告诉你他们生活中正在发生的事，以及让他们感到烦恼的地方。
And that's obviously going to frustrate people because they're trying to tell you what's going on their life, what they might be frustrating about.
而你却说：我这里有解药。
And you're like, I've got the cure here.
就是比特币。
It's Bitcoin.
只要买入比特币，你的生活就会变好。
Just BCA into Bitcoin, and your life's gonna get better.
你向我描述的这些问题都会消失。
All these problems you're describing to me are gonna go away.
对很多人来说，这根本行不通。
Like, that just practically doesn't work for a lot of people.
通常，他们只是想被倾听。
Like, often, they just wanna be heard.
我认为，作为一名比特币爱好者，你能做的最有力量的事情之一——我相信你可能也亲身体验过，斯特凡——那就是，自从你接触比特币以来，你的生活可能已经发生了巨大变化。
And I think one of the most powerful things that you can do as a Bitcoiner, and I imagine you might have experienced this yourself, Stephane, is, like, your life has probably drastically changed since you've gotten into Bitcoin.
那些了解你的朋友和家人，可能把你当成那个讲比特币播客的人，或者类似的身份——就是那个对这个领域懂很多的比特币信徒。但他们也一定看到你的生活有了很大改善，你整个人都变了，而他们其实更聪明，或者不想在所有听众面前给你太多夸奖。
And the friends and family that know you, and they might know you as, like, the Bitcoin podcast guy or whatever, like, this is the Bitcoiner that we know who knows so much stuff about this, but they've probably seen your life improve a lot and, like, you change as a person, and they're even smarter or, you know, don't wanna give you too many compliments in front of all the listeners.
但他们确实看到你作为一个人发生了变化，开始意识到：等等。
But but you like, they see you change as a person, and they start realizing, like, wait.
为什么我会这么挣扎、这么痛苦？为什么我讨厌所有这些事情？
Why am I so why am I struggling and miserable, and why do I hate all these things?
但这个人却很快乐，他热爱自己所做的事情，不断开启新的事业，发展自己的生活，迎接新的挑战。
But this guy's happy, and he loves what he does and keeps, like, starting up new ventures and things or developing his life and taking things on.
我怎么能变得像斯特凡那样呢？
Like, how can I be more like Stefan?
这有点像以身作则，向人们展示：嘿。
It's kinda like just leading by example and showing people like, hey.
比特币让我的生活变得更好，你也可以用这种方式去谈论它，而不是说‘你必须这么做’、‘你真该读这个’、‘你该买比特币’或者‘你该做那个’。
Bitcoin's making my life better, and you can also talk about it more in that way rather than you need to do this or you should really be reading this or buying Bitcoin or doing that.
别告诉他们该做什么。
It's like, don't tell them what to do.
这更像是以身作则。
It's it's a little bit more like lead by example.
给他们展示一些可能真正引起共鸣的例子。
Show them examples that might actually resonate with them.
例如，我已经影响了很多人。
I've gotten through, for example, to, a lot of people.
他们一开始总是从气候角度来讨论比特币，说它对环境有害之类的。
Like, they start with the whole climate angle towards Bitcoin, and they go, like, oh, but it's bad for the environment or whatnot.
与其立刻防御性地回应说‘不’。
And instead of immediately going on the defensive and being like, no.
不是的。
No.
不是的。
No.
我不会说它有多好之类的话，而是直接讲一个非洲的项目，他们在那里做了这些、那些事情来帮助建设电网。
It's great and whatnot, I just start talking like, I know this project in Africa, and they do this and this and that to help build up a grid there.
他们看起来有点困惑。
And they're, you know, they're looking a bit confused.
他们说：等等。
They're like, wait.
为什么
Why is
他在讲这些乱七八糟的东西。
he talking about and stuff.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
无电网是一个例子。
Gridless is an example.
我跟他们聊了这个，然后他们就意识到，与其反驳他们的话，我只是在转变话题，再慢慢绕回来。
And I talked through this, and then they're like, you know, like, instead of pushing back against what they're saying, I'm just, like, shifting the conversation and then kind of coming back around.
转向一个有趣的故事，从那个角度吸引他们。
Into an interesting story that kind of draws them in from that perspective, maybe.
然后，如果我直接说，不。
And and then, you know, if I would have said, no.
那不对，因为我了解这家公司，他们在做有益的事情。
That's not true because I know this company, and they're doing good stuff.
然后他们立刻会觉得，哦，你是在告诉我，我在媒体上听到的那些事其实不是真的。
And then they immediately feel like, oh, you're telling me this thing that I've heard in the media is not true.
而且，这感觉像是我们在对抗，但实际上并不是，我会想，哦，是的。
And, like, it feels like we are clashing when we're not actually I'm like, oh, yeah.
那就是，是的。
That's yeah.
你知道，我可以从另一个角度来谈，比如，能源确实是全球面临的大问题。
Like, you know, I could approach that from, like, yeah, energy is a big problem all around the world.
有很多地方根本没有电力网络。
There's lots of places where they don't actually have energy grids.
但我听说过一个特别酷的故事，我在新闻里看到过，他们正在以一种方式建设微电网，让电力变得对人们来说更便宜、更易获取，并且正在逐步推广开来。
But I heard of this really cool story where like, I've seen it in the news where they're starting to build up a microgrid in a way, where it becomes much more, like, much cheaper for people, much more accessible, and they're starting to grow this out.
我觉得这具有巨大的潜力。
Like, I think this has tremendous potential.
你可以慢慢梳理这个思路，最终得出一个结论：既然电力在不用的时候是闲置的，那他们就在找谁能在这段时间使用这些电力。
Like, you can kinda talk through it and ultimately arrive at a point where it's like and the way this is possible, it's like, well, they were looking for, like, who could draw this electricity during the times where it's not being used.
AI不行，因为它需要一直在线。
Well, AI can't do it because it kinda need to be online all the time.
然后你突然意识到，等等。
And then you realize, like, wait.
这些比特币矿工正好有空闲。
Well, these Bitcoin miners are available.
从这个角度来探讨这个话题，确实让全世界很多人感到震惊，当他们意识到这一点时。
And, like, approaching that topic from that angle, totally, like, it's blown plenty of minds, I think, around the world when they came to that kind of realization.
与其采取防御立场，把对话变成对立，不如通过这种方式展开大量讨论，因为一旦变成对抗，人们离开时根本记不住你分享的事实、例子或文章。
And there's a lot of conversations to be had that way rather than, like, picking the defensive position and, like, turning it into a clash because people walk away from that not remembering the facts or the examples or the articles that you shared with them.
他们只会想，我和那个家伙聊得还愉快吗？
They'll just think, like, did I have a good talk with that guy?
他有没有认真听我说话呢？
Like, did he, you know, like, did he listen to me?
他对我说的话回应得怎么样？
Did he have a good responses to the things that I said or not?
他们根本记不住具体的话，而这对你和别人谈论比特币的方式产生了巨大影响。
They just won't remember the words, and that makes a really big difference in how you talk to Bitcoin about people.
所以我觉得更重要的是去倾听，试着和人们交流，让他们在你身边感到愉快，向他们展示比特币是如何改善了你自己的生活，然后在合适的时机引入这个话题。
So I think it's much more like just listen, like, try to have conversations with people, make them feel good around you, show them how Bitcoin kind of, like, has improved your own life, and then introduce it at the right time.
如果你过去和某人相处得不好，你也可以回头去找他们，跟他们说：嘿。
And if you screwed up with someone in the past, you can also go back over to them and just tell them, like, hey.
对不起。
Sorry.
过去这三个月，或者不管多久，甚至过去五年，我是个特别烦人的比特币爱好者。
I was a really annoying Bitcoin guy for, like, the last three months or whatever or the last five years.
但你要知道，我这么做是因为我真的在乎你，而且我的生活已经变得越来越好。
But know, like, know that I did that because I really care about you, and my own life has been improving so much.
我也希望你能有同样的经历，因为我在乎你。
And I just want that for you too because I care about you.
当你
When you
去接近别人时，我想说这一点。
approach someone And I would say this.
我认为对很多人来说，这只是一个阶段。
I think for many people, it's a phase.
你知道吗？
You know?
就像你刚接触的时候一样，我记得我刚入行时，2013年买了第一枚币，那时我到处跟人宣扬。
It's like that when you first get into it, like I remember when I was, like, first getting when I was a noob and bought my first coins in 2013 and I was, you know, shouting from the rooftops.
你知道的，这只是一个阶段。
You know, it's a phase.
我觉得很多人都会经历这个阶段，是的。
I think a lot of people just go through that phase of Yep.
希望别人都能加入。
Wanting everyone else to be in.
有些人听了，有些人没听。
Now some people listen, some people didn't.
那些听了的人显然过得还不错。
The ones who listened obviously have, you know, done pretty well for themselves.
然后有一段时间，至少对我来说，我感觉自己根本不是很多人接触比特币的第一个渠道。
And then for a while, at least for me, I've just kinda I see myself as like, I'm not really the first touch point for Bitcoin for a lot of people anyway.
我更像是在漏斗的下游。
I'm sort of further down the funnel.
所以我只是发布一些内容，希望能帮助人们了解比特币，但我并不像那种处于漏斗顶端的人，你知道的。
So I just kinda put out content and hopefully educate people about Bitcoin, but I'm not as, you know, I'm not I don't see myself as like a top of funnel guy, you know, per se.
所以这就是我看待这个问题的方式。
So that's kind of how I'm seeing it.
我只是说，如果他们想问问题，让他们主动来找我。
I just say like, let them come to me if they want if they want to ask questions, they can.
但当我跟那些不是比特币用户的一般人聊天时，我根本不会提比特币，只是试着聊点别的东西。
But kind of if I'm talking to like normies out there and they're not Bitcoin people themselves, then I'll just like not even mention Bitcoin and just sort of, you know, try to talk about other things.
不过，不同的人有不同的方法，有些人特别有技巧，也很有魅力，他们可能通过不同的故事、幽默或情感共鸣来吸引别人。
But, you know, different approaches like some people are really kind of skillful and really, let's say, charismatic, and maybe they draw people in with a different story or humor or some emotional hook, something like this.
所以，不同的方法对不同的人可能都有效。
So, you know, just different approaches can kinda work for different people.
是的。
Yeah.
当然。
For sure.
但我认为你说得对，别非得当那个烦人的比特币狂热分子。
But I think you're right to, like, not be the like, the important like, just don't be an annoying Bitcoin guy.
对吧？
Right?
就是说，试着找到一种平衡，比如你该如何把握分寸，嗯。
Like, just, you know, try to find a a balance of, like, how you sort of Yep.
轻轻地传递信息，但不要让人觉得烦。
Lightly spread a message without being overbearing, let's say.
对你自己来说，这样也更好，否则你会被搞得特别沮丧。
It's also better for yourself to just, otherwise, you're gonna get so frustrated with it.
然后你就会发现，很多人之所以放弃，是因为觉得：唉，问题出在我朋友和家人身上。
And then what you do get is, like, a lot of people give up because they're like, well, it's just, my friends and family are the problem.
他们就是不懂。
Like, they don't get it.
他们太固执了。
They're stubborn.
他们不听，也不愿了解，而是选择‘享受贫穷’那一面，就是：去你的吧。
They don't listen get into the have fun, stay poor side of it where it's just like, oh, screw you.
就享受生活，安于贫穷，这种感觉
Just have fun, stay poor, and that kind
这样的事情。
of thing.
他们会变得苦涩。
They'll get bitter.
那就又走得太远了。
And then that's like going too far the other way.
这中间需要一种平衡。
It's like there's a balance.
就是找到一个折中点，既不要太过放松，也不要变成那种‘去他的，开心就好，穷就穷吧’的态度。
There's like a happy medium of, like, not chilling too hard, but also not being a f u, have fun, stay poor sort of thing.
对。
Yep.
是的。
Yeah.
那么，最后有什么建议吗？人们在哪里可以找到你和这份报告？
So any any closing thoughts, and where can people find you online and find the report?
是的。
Yeah.
我没有特别的总结想法，我觉得。
No specific closing thoughts, I think.
比如，我想总结一下就是
Like, I guess summarizing is like
你都讲到了。
You covered it.
我们在这项研究中发现的主要事情是，比特币中正在发生一些趋势，这些趋势并不一定反映在价格上。
The main thing that we just found with this research in general is there are trends going on in Bitcoin that don't necessarily reflect an applies in in the price.
比如，我们看到很多对比特币的商业采用。
Like, we see a lot of Bitcoin business adoption.
我们看到更多的商家采用。
We see more merchant adoption.
我们看到更多的闪电网络采用。
We see more Lightning adoption.
它们在短期内不会让我们看到像十几万美元这样炫目的价格。
They're not gonna bring us a flashy, like, multiple 100,000 price in the short term.
但我们正在见证的这种基础性采用非常重要，它将为我们未来的增长和突破奠定基础，无论我们将走向何方。
But it's really important sort of foundational adoption that we're seeing that is gonna help set us up for the next growth and run and whatever it is, like, wherever we end up going.
所以，这大概就是我认为我们的主要收获。
So that's kinda like our, I think, like, our overall key takeaways.
比特币的采用并不存在所谓的熊市。
Like, there's not necessarily a bear market in Bitcoin adoption.
只是情绪和价格暂时下行了。
It's just like sentiment and price early down.
但比特币本身正处于一个非常有趣的状态，我认为，我非常期待接下来的时光，看看它能走多远。
But Bitcoin itself is, like, in a really interesting space, I think, and I really look forward to the next while and seeing how far it grows.
至于大家在哪里能找到我，我在Twitter上是s d wouters，如果你感兴趣，欢迎关注我。
As for where people can find me, I'm on Twitter at s d wouters, and follow me there for if you're interested.
我也会从River账户发布一些内容，你也可以关注River。
I also posted a bit from the River account as well, and you can follow River as well.
如果你对研究感兴趣，可以在那里查找。
If you're interested in research, can look it up there.
我们会发布出来。
We'll post it.
所以，是的，人们可以通过这些地方找到我，能和你对话真是太好了，斯蒂芬。
So, yeah, that's where people can find me, and it's been super good being on, Stefan.
很高兴再次见到你。
Great seeing you again.
是的。
Yeah.
希望很快能再见到你。
Hope to see you soon.
还有，听众朋友们，去了解一下吧。
And, yeah, listeners, check it out.
别忘了分享这一期节目，让更多人了解闪电网络的真相。
Make sure you share this episode so people learn the truth about the Lightning Network.
它也在随着采用率的增长而发展。
It is growing as well as adoption.
当然，别忘了关注 River。
And, course, check out River.
大家一定要在熊市中定期定额投资。
Everyone, make sure you are DCA ing in the bear market.
我们今天就到这里。
That's it from us.
谢谢。
Thank you.
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