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把自己全部押上,透支所有资产,却没有任何应对价格下跌的应急计划,我认为这无异于自取灭亡。
Leveraging yourself to the max and borrowing against all of your your stack and not having any sort of contingency plan for what would happen if the price decreases, I think, is a recipe for disaster.
大家好,欢迎回到斯蒂芬·洛韦拉的播客。
Hi, everyone, and welcome back to Stefan Lovera podcast.
今天做客节目的嘉宾是Arch Lending的首席执行官德鲁夫·帕特尔。
Joining me on on the show today is the CEO of Arch Lending, Dhruv Patel.
德鲁夫,欢迎来到节目。
Dhruv, welcome to the show.
谢谢你邀请我,斯蒂芬。
Thanks for having me, Stefan.
最近很多人对比特币借贷很感兴趣,而最近比特币价格大幅下跌,所以我们也很想听听你的看法。
So, there's a lot of interest recently in Bitcoin lending, and, of course, there's been a big drop in the price recently, so we've gotta get your, reaction on that also.
我们录制这段内容时,比特币价格大约是每枚66,000美元。
So as we record this, the price is $66,000 ish per Bitcoin.
很多人都在问,这是一次中期回调吗?
And, you know, there's a lot of people who are sort of like, is this a mid cycle drop?
我们现在处于全面的熊市吗?
Are we in a bear market, fully fledged?
我们目前处于什么阶段?
Kind of where are we at?
也许你可以先谈谈你对此的看法。
And, maybe give us a bit of your thoughts on that to start.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道,价格走势似乎总是不太顺。
You know, it seems like we can't catch a break with price action.
从去年八月或九月开始,市场就一直震荡下行。
It's ever since maybe last August, September, it's mostly just been choppy and trending downwards.
我没有水晶球,所以不会猜测我们现在处于周期的哪个阶段,或者什么时候会反转。
I don't have a crystal ball here, so I'm not going to opine on where we are in the cycle or maybe when it starts to turn around.
但我可以说的是,根据最近几天的情况,以及我看到的一些公司发布的研究报告,似乎我们目前的位置可能已经形成了一个底部支撑。
But I will say, at least from recent, like the last few days and what I've been reading online with certain firms putting out research reports, it seems like we may have support for like a bottom ish where we are.
所以希望从这里开始只会上涨。
And so hopefully it's only up from here.
是的,我们拭目以待。
Yeah, let's see.
嘿,说到借贷,我们来聊聊这个平台吧。
Hey, so speaking of lending, let's talk a bit about the platform.
那么,它在客户和清算方面,或者许多客户不得不追加抵押品这类情况上,对你产生了怎样的影响?
So how has it impacted you in terms of, you know, customers and, like, liquidations or maybe the many customers having to load more collateral in this kind of thing?
是的。
Yeah.
当然。
Absolutely.
所以,也许我可以先退一步说一下,我知道你们的许多听众可能已经了解什么是比特币抵押贷款,但我还是可以解释一下它的运作机制。
So so maybe I can just step back and and, I know many of your listeners probably already know what a Bitcoin backed loan is, but I can spell out some of the mechanics and how it works.
通常情况下,你可以用你的比特币借出一定比例的贷款。
So typically you borrow a certain LTV against your Bitcoin.
因此,我们提供最高60%的贷款比例。
And so we offer up to 60%.
当比特币价格上涨时,有两种情况:你可以取回部分抵押品,或者增加贷款额度。
And what happens is there's two things like as the price of Bitcoin rises, you can either get some of your collateral back or increase your loan size.
而当比特币价格下跌时,你需要追加更多抵押品以应对保证金通知,否则面临被强制平仓的风险。
And as the price of Bitcoin drops, you either need to top up more collateral and a margin call or you have the risk of liquidation.
因此,当我们看到过去两周乃至过去六个月更长时间内的价格下跌时,这两种情况都发生了:我们发出了保证金通知,客户需要额外添加比特币来保障他们的贷款安全。
And so when we see price drops like what we've seen over the last two weeks and more sort of over a longer period of time over the last six months, both of those outcomes have occurred where we have margin calls happening and so clients need to go and add additional Bitcoin to keep their loans safe.
但当价格从约12万美元的高点跌至5.9万美元的低点时,最终会有一些客户无法再拿出更多比特币来追加抵押。
But also when you see drops from like the peak of 120 something K to the low of $59,000 you eventually see some clients not have additional Bitcoin to top up.
因此,为了保持贷款组合的健康状态,确实需要进行一些强制平仓。
And as a result, there do need to be some liquidations just to keep the loan book in healthy state.
明白了。
Gotcha.
是的。
Yeah.
所以,让我们稍微退一步,简单介绍一下,Arch 是什么时候成立的?你们主要提供哪些产品?
So let's, yeah, give maybe just back up a little and give us a bit of an overview, like when did Arch start and what are the main products that you guys offer?
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得 Arch 是在 2022 年 2 月成立的。
So I'd say Arch started in February 2022.
那一年市场波动很大,尤其是年底,这个领域以及更广泛的比特币行业有许多公司破产。
And so, you know, that that was a volatile year just with the end of the at the end of the year, there is many firms that were going bankrupt in this space and in the Bitcoin space broadly.
但对我们来说,核心产品始终是比特币抵押贷款。
But for us, our core product has always been Bitcoin backed loans.
正如我提到的,这是一个灵活的产品,相当于一条信贷额度,让比特币持有者在不卖出比特币的情况下,获得流动性来满足生活中的各种需求,比如投资、支付开销等。
And as I mentioned, is like just a flexible product that functions as a line of credit, allows Bitcoiners to access liquidity to do whatever they need to in their life, whether it's make investments, handle expenses, things of that sort without selling their Bitcoin.
在此基础上,我们打造了一系列定制化的应用场景。
And then what we've done is that sort of been a great foundation layer product and we've built tailored customized use cases on top of it.
其中一个就是我们所谓的
One of them Before is what we call
我们来谈谈定制化服务,能不能先说一下总体的利率是多少?
we go to the customized stuff, can we just sort of get the overarching, like what's the interest rate?
你们提供的贷款期限是多久?
What's the loan term you guys offer?
就是一些大家都会关心的基本信息。
Just some of those kind of high level things that everyone would wanna know.
是的,当然可以。
Yeah, absolutely.
我来用年化利率(APR)来说明,因为我们的贷款除了利率外,还有一笔1.5%的启动费。
So maybe I'll talk in terms of APRs because our loans have an interest rate and then a one and a half origination fee.
利率会根据贷款金额有所不同,但最低可低至8.49%的年化利率。
And the interest rate varies based on the loan size, but it starts as low as 8.49% APR.
目前最高的年化利率大概是11.9%。
And then the highest APR, I believe is 11.9% at the moment.
随着我们规模的不断扩大,这些利率还在持续下降。
And those rates are consistently coming down just as we continue to scale.
我们提供一年期的仅付息贷款。
And we offer one year loans that are interest only.
贷款到期后,客户可以续期再借一年。
And at the end of the term, clients can just roll over into another year loan.
因此,您在年底并不需要偿还本金。
And so you don't actually need to go and pay off the principal at the end of the year.
您可以持续支付每月利息,长期保持这种模式。
You can continue just paying your monthly interest and doing that for an extended period of time.
明白了。
Gotcha.
客户是美国客户吗?
And the customers, is it American customers?
是全球范围的吗?
Is it global?
是否包括非制裁国家和地区?
Is it non sanctioned jurisdictions?
你们的潜在客户是谁?
Who is a potential customer for you?
是的。
Yep.
我们在美国拥有牌照并受监管。
So we're licensed and regulated in The US.
因此,我们主要服务美国本土的个人和企业,但也支持某些国际司法管辖区的个人,以及更广泛意义上的全球企业。
So we service primarily US based individuals and businesses, but we also support individuals in certain international jurisdictions as well as businesses more broadly globally as well.
好的,所以主要是美国,但你们也能支持海外企业,对吧?
Okay, so mainly US, but you can support businesses overseas kind
这种业务。
of thing.
是的。
Yeah.
海外企业。
Businesses overseas.
我们绝对不涉及任何受制裁的地区之类的事情。
We definitely don't touch like sanctioned regions and things of that sort.
无论在哪个司法管辖区,我们都必须完成完整的KYC流程。
And we have a full KYC, KYC process that needs to happen regardless of the jurisdiction.
所以,是的。
And so, yeah.
明白了。
Gotcha.
对。
Yep.
然后,也许可以跟我们聊聊关于LTV水平的事情。
And then, yeah, maybe just talk to us a little bit about the LTV levels as well.
你提到过60%的LTV。
So you mentioned 60% LTV.
所以跟我们详细说说这个吧。
So talk to us a bit about that.
是的。
Yeah.
所以,这里你大概需要了解四个数字。
So essentially there's probably four numbers you need to be aware of here.
第一个是,你能借到的最高初始贷款价值比是多少?
One is like, what's the maximum initial loan to value you could borrow?
对我们来说,那就是60%。
And so for us, that's 60%.
另外三个是:当比特币价格上涨时,在什么贷款价值比下,你可以增加贷款额度或取回部分比特币?
Now the other three are, okay, at what percent LTV if Bitcoin rises, do I get to either increase my loan size or access some of my Bitcoin back?
这个阈值是50%或更低。
And that's at 50% or lower.
然后剩下两个是关于比特币价格下跌的情况。
And then the remaining two are in the situation where Bitcoin is falling.
在什么贷款价值比时会触发追加保证金通知?
At what LTV is there a margin call?
对我们来说,那是70%。
And for us that's 70%.
在这一点上,客户有24小时的时间存入额外的比特币抵押品,以将他们的贷款价值比降至60%或更低。
At that point, the clients have twenty four hours to deposit additional Bitcoin collateral to bring their loan to value back down to 60% or lower.
如果他们无法做到这一点,或者比特币价格继续下跌并触及清算阈值(即贷款价值比达到80%),那么我们将需要部分清算抵押品,以将贷款价值比回调至60%。
And if they're not able to do that or if the price of Bitcoin continues to fall and hits the liquidation threshold, which is 80% loan to value, then we will need to partially liquidate to bring the loan to value back to 60%.
我们从不售出全部抵押品,只出售将贷款价值比回调至健康水平所需的那部分。
We never sell all of the collateral, only what's necessary to bring it back down to a healthy level.
是的。
Yeah.
让我们谈谈你之前提到的定制化方面。
Let's talk a little bit of the customization aspects you mentioned earlier.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为比特币抵押贷款是一个强大的工具,但我们发现,人们心中都有特定的使用场景,因此为这些场景打造定制化产品会更容易。
So I think Bitcoin backed loans is a powerful tool, but what we realized is people have certain use cases in mind and so it's easier to build tailored products for those use cases.
因此,我们目前有两个已上线的产品,并且一直在开发更多针对特定使用场景的定制化产品。
And so we have two specifically that are live right now and we're always working on launching additional ones for further tailored use cases.
其中一个叫做永久收入。
One is called perpetual income.
你可以将其理解为目标用户群体,比如退休人士,或者持有大量比特币但没有工资单或传统现金流的人。
You can think of this as like the target use cases, maybe folks that are retired or have a higher amount of Bitcoin but don't have a W2 or a traditional cash flow stream.
它的运作方式是,后台有一个管理型产品,你存入10个比特币,每年可以安全地以贷款形式提取5万美元。
Here, what it is, it's a managed product behind the hood where you deposit say 10 Bitcoin and you can comfortably access $50,000 against that every year in the form of a loan.
因此,这对您来说是免税收入。
And so it's tax free income for you.
实现方式是,你从一个非常保守的贷款价值比开始,之后可以逐步提高,而比特币的升值速度通常会超过你所承担债务的增长速度。
And the way it's done is you start with a very conservative loan to value that you can continually increase over time and Bitcoin's appreciation should outpace the level of growth on the debt that you're taking on as well.
这就是第一个产品。
So that's one.
第二个产品叫做TaxShield。
And then the second is a product called TaxShield.
因此,这个产品面向高收入人群,他们可以以自己的比特币为抵押借款,用于投资挖矿设备。
And so this is geared towards high income earners where they're able to borrow against their Bitcoin and invest in mining equipment.
由于税法的变化,现在这笔支出可以作为一次性折旧抵扣你的应税收入。
And because of the changes in the tax bill, this is now counted as something that you can bonus depreciate against your taxable income.
因此,可以在年底减少你的税单。
And as a result, reduce your tax bill at the end of the year.
对我们来说,目前这两个是针对特定人群的专项贷款用途。
And so for us, those are two that we have right now that are specialized lending use cases for certain sets of individuals.
我们会继续在此基础上开发更多类似的产品。
And we're continuing to build out more of these as we go forward.
明白了。
Gotcha.
好的。
Okay.
所以,我理解第一个产品,即永久收入,就像是如果你想靠你的比特币存量生活。
So as I'm understanding that the first one, the perpetual income is kind of like, if you wanna live off your stack, let's say.
是的。
Yep.
如果你是一个高净值的比特币持有者,想借出你持币中较小的一部分,然后靠这部分生活。
If you're like a higher net worth Bitcoiner and you wanna kinda borrow against a smaller fraction of your stack and, you know, live off that.
当然,你知道比特币波动很大,但一般来说,如果你是比特币坚定支持者,你会相信比特币的价格会涨到每枚数百万美元。
And, of course, you know, Bitcoin's volatile, but the idea is generally if you're a maxi, you believe Bitcoin is, you know, going to millions and millions of dollars per coin.
是的。
Yep.
你希望借入资金,使得比特币的复合年增长率高于你支付的利息,这基本上就是核心思路。
You wanna, etcetera, borrow against such that the CAGR of Bitcoin is higher than the interest that you're paying is kind of the general idea.
对。
Yeah.
你刚才提到的第二类是税收抵免。
And then the second category there you were saying is the tax shield.
所以这更适用于想利用特定税收减免政策的美国人,比如对比特币挖矿设备的税收抵扣。
So this is more like for Americans who wanna, let's say, take advantage of a specific tax deduction that's available, for mining Bitcoin mining equipment.
所以给我们讲讲这方面的挖矿部分。
So tell us a little bit about the mining side of that.
那么,你是和一家托管挖矿公司合作吗?
So is that, like, do you partner with a mining hosted company for that?
还是他们会借款后自己去找挖矿合作伙伴,或者自己搭建挖矿设备?
Or is it like they will borrow and then they will go find their own mining partner to work with or go and do their own mining setup?
是的。
Yeah.
所以客户在这里可以自由选择。
So clients are free to do as they wish there.
我们与Blockware建立了合作关系。
We have partnered with Blockware.
我们当然可以为客户安排相关服务,但客户也可以自行选择挖矿,或与其他任何他们认为合适的提供商合作。
So, we can certainly make an interruption for clients there, but also clients can go and do mining themselves or with any other provider they see fit.
因此,这方面是灵活的。
So it's flexible from that respect.
明白了。
Gotcha.
对。
Yeah.
好的。
Okay.
所以这些是它的定制化方面。
So these are the custom aspects of it.
然后,考虑到价格下跌以及我们之前提到的一些内容,我觉得最好还是聊聊这个话题。
And then, you know, just given kind of the price drops and, you know, some of what we were touching on, I guess it probably good be good to just chat a little bit about that.
那到底谁应该做这个呢?
Like, who should actually do this?
对吧?
Right?
因为我想,确实有这种逻辑,就是说,好吧。
Because I guess it is like, yes, there is that logic of, okay.
比特币的复合年增长率,不管我们怎么想,它都会是那样。
Bitcoin CAGR is, you know, whatever we think it's it's gonna be.
比如,我会看看幂律法则之类的。
Like, I look at, let's say, Power Law or whatever.
对哪些人来说这是合适的做法,对哪些人来说又不合适呢?
For what person is it the right thing to do, and for what people is it not the right thing to do?
因为也许他们的净资产不够大,无法以一种可持续的、有风险管控的方式进行,而不是像梭哈那样。
Because maybe they don't have a, you know, a big enough net worth to kind of sustainably do this in a, you know, in a managing, in a risk managed fashion rather than like a YOLO fashion.
是的,完全正确。
Yeah, yeah, absolutely.
所以我觉得我们可以把情况分为两种使用场景。
So I think like maybe we'll separate out into two use cases.
确实有一种情况是人们以梭哈的方式在操作。
Like there's definitely the use case of people that are doing it more in the YOLO fashion.
对。
Right.
他们可能会向我们借比特币来购买更多的比特币。
And they're maybe borrowing us their Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin.
对他们来说,这是一种杠杆用途。
And for them, that's like a leverage use case.
除此之外,我认为对于其他人群,我们支持从5000美元到超过2000万美元的贷款。我经常看到的情况是,我认为我建议的是:尽管我们都预期比特币的长期复合年增长率和升值会远远超过任何贷款的年化利率,但你仍需考虑在过程中可能出现的任何波动。
So that aside, I think for the rest of the folks, we support loans as low as $5,000 to well north of $20,000,000 And what I see consistently and I think I would recommend is essentially making sure you're in a position knowing that while we all expect Bitcoin's long term CAGR and appreciation to well outpace any sort of APR interest rate on a given loan, you need to account for any sort of volatility that comes up in the interrupt.
因此,我建议不要用你所有的比特币作为抵押来借款。
And so what I would recommend is essentially not using all of your stack to borrow against.
比如,保留一部分你自己持有,无论是自己保管还是其他方式。
Like keep maybe some portion aside for yourself wherever you're custodying it, self custody, etcetera.
再留出一部分资金,以应对可能出现的追加保证金要求。
And an additional portion aside to handle margin calls should they come up.
这样,如果比特币价格在一段时间内下跌,你的资产仍然是安全的。
And so that way, if anything happens and the Bitcoin price fluctuates downwards over a period of time, your stack is safe.
你可以从容应对追加保证金的要求,晚上也能睡得更安稳。
You're able to handle margin calls as they come up and sleep better at night.
另一种做法是,当你申请贷款时,可以将部分资金以现金形式保留下来。
The other way to do this also is when you take out a loan, maybe some of those proceeds you keep aside in cash.
这样,如果出现追加保证金的要求,你可以部分偿还贷款。
So that way if there's a margin call, you can partially pay down your loan.
有两种方式可以解决追加保证金的问题。
There's two ways to cure the margin call.
一种是部分偿还贷款,另一种是增加比特币抵押品。
It's either paying down your loan partially or adding more Bitcoin.
无论你选择哪种方式,都要确保为比特币价格下跌的情况做好应对计划。
So whichever way you do it, just making sure you have contingency plans for what may happen if Bitcoin does sort of decrease in price.
是的。
Yeah.
我很好奇,你一开始的贷款价值比(LTV)就比较高,比如60%。
And I am curious that you have what might be considered a high LTV to start, like 60% LTV.
我的意思是,如果价格出现大幅下跌,你很容易被大幅击穿。
I mean, you can you can easily you can kinda get wrecked more easily if if there's, a pretty big drop.
所以我很好奇,为什么选择60%?是因为你们想扩大这个产品的受众,但代价是,如果客户一开始就以60%的贷款价值比开始,那如果没有预留足够的资金应对这些大幅下跌,你们很容易就被击垮了。
So I'm curious why the selection of 60 is that because you're trying to expand the access for this product, but at the trade off of, you know, if customers are starting at 60 LTV, like, you would have got wrecked if you didn't keep enough, you know, aside for, like, you know, some of these big drops.
是的。
Yeah.
所以,斯蒂芬,这可能是一个重要的澄清。
So so maybe, Stephane, that's an important clarification.
我们并不要求你必须从60%开始。
We don't require you to start at 60%.
那只是你能达到的最高限额。
That's just the maximum you can do.
我们有很多客户是从50%、40%开始的。
We have many clients that start at 50%, 40%.
这实际上取决于客户的风崄偏好。
It really depends on the client's risk profile.
而且这是他们在启动贷款前都能自行决定的。
And that's something they all get to decide before they start the loan.
对我们来说,我们提供最高60%的贷款比例,因为这是我们觉得在不违背自身风险标准和公司承受能力的前提下,所能采取的最激进的限度。
And so for us, we offer up to 60% because that's where we feel is the most sort of aggressive we can do without compromising our own risk standards and what we feel comfortable with as a company.
但每位客户都可以自由决定从一开始就借款的比例。
But every client is free to decide the level of, you know, borrowing that they wanna do from the start.
是的。
Yeah.
明白了。
Gotcha.
而且我觉得这是一个有趣的地方,随着时间推移,这种情况会如何发展,因为任何有经验的人都知道,比特币经历过大幅回撤,比如80%、75%的跌幅。
And so, yeah, because I think that's kind of an interesting thing, like where this goes over time, because like anyone who's been around for a while knows, Hey, Bitcoin has gone through these big draw downs, 80 like percent drawdowns, 75% drawdowns.
就连2021年周期中,价格也曾从6万美元跌至3万美元,之后又回升到6.9万美元,然后跌至FTX崩盘时的约1.6万美元。
You know, even in the '21 cycle, there was, a a mid cycle drop from 60 k down to 30 k before going back up to 69 k and then down to, like, you know, 16 k, the FTX kind of bottom, let's say.
所以,显然,它的波动性是很高的。
So, you know, certainly, it can be volatile.
因此,人们在管理这种风险时必须非常谨慎,这一点显而易见。
So, you know, people have to be very, prudent in how they manage this and, like, obviously yeah.
显然,这里没有一刀切的方案。
Obviously, there's there's there's too many there's no one size fits all here.
我理解,圈内有些人秉持着完全不负债的心态。
I understand that there are some people in the space who have a, like, a total, like, zero debt whatsoever mindset.
也有人可以保守地操作,而另一些人则完全走YOLO路线。
There are others who are sort of, you know, you can do it conservatively, and then you've got, like, the full YOLO side of the spectrum as well.
我一直倾向于认为,你可以这样做,但必须保持保守,这在某些情况下更有意义,通常是高净值人群或商业用途。
So, I have been in the more, like, you need you can do it, but you need to be conservative, and it kinda it makes more sense in certain scenarios, generally higher net worth or business use cases.
我认为,这些情况下的个人或企业可能拥有现金流和收入,或者只是拥有较高的净资产。
I think these are the cases where this these individuals or businesses might have, let's say, cash flow and income, or they might have just a high net worth.
所以他们可以出售其他资产,但关键点是你必须进行压力测试。
So they can sell some other asset to you know but but the the important point is you do need to kind of stress test.
对吧?
Right?
因为任何这样做的人,都必须打开电子表格,认真思考一下:好吧。
Because anyone doing this has to really, like, pull up a spreadsheet and, like, think about, okay.
如果比特币下跌了怎么办?
What if Bitcoin drops?
如果,你知道的,主要是比特币下跌了怎么办?
What if, you know, like, basically, mainly, it's what if Bitcoin drops?
当然,还要考虑其他风险,比如提供商是如何进行托管的?
And, of course, think about other risks like, how is the provider doing their custody?
那方面的风险是什么?
And, what's the risk on that side?
是否存在再次杠杆化的问题?
Is there rehyperfication?
我们来也谈谈这些点。
So let's talk a little bit about some of those points as well.
跟我们聊聊你们这边的托管情况,以及是否存在再次杠杆化,这些人们通常会关心的问题。
Like, talk talk to us a little bit about the custody on your side and whether there's rehypothecation, some of these concerns that people will typically have.
是的。
Yeah.
当然。
Absolutely.
我的意思是,我认为你已经指出了借款人最应该关注的两点,那就是你的比特币是如何被保管的,以及它是否发生了任何变化。
I I mean, I think you've probably pointed out the two things that like, I think the two biggest things that a borrower should be aware of is essentially like how is your Bitcoin held and what's happening to it if anything.
Arch 从未对客户抵押品进行再抵押,这意味着我们不会触碰它,也不会将其借出。
Arch does not and has never re hypothecated client collateral, which means we don't touch it, we don't lend it out.
它只是存放在安克罗奇数字公司(Anchorage Digital)的冷钱包中,这是一家在美国联邦特许的银行,也是规模最大、最知名、最受信赖的托管机构之一。
It just sits in cold storage at Anchorage Digital which is a federally chartered bank in The US and one of the largest like well known most reputed custodians.
因此,我们的客户抵押品就只是静静地存放在那里。
And so our client collateral simply just sits there.
事实上,对于超过10万美元的贷款,客户可以要求我们将他们的抵押品单独存入一个钱包,并与他们共享该钱包地址。
In fact, for loans above $100,000 clients can request that we segregate their collateral into its own wallet and share the wallet address with them.
因此客户可以24/7实时查看,确认没有其他资金进入或转出该钱包,这也是我们向客户证明我们所言属实的一种方式。
So clients can see it 20 fourseven and know that nothing else has come in or gone out of that wallet, which is a way for us to prove what we're seeing as well.
我相信你也注意到了,目前在这一领域,贷款的方式多种多样,对吧?
I'm sure you're seeing this now as well that we're seeing, in the space there's different ways to do loans, right?
所以你们提供的是那种纯粹的托管式贷款。
So you have the kind of, you know, just straight custodial style loan.
然后还有一些人采用多重签名和DLC等方式,来处理这类贷款。
And then there are people doing things like multi sig and DLC style and, you know, different ways of, approaching this loan.
在托管式(由受监管的托管方提供)与多重签名或DLC式贷款之间,你如何看待这个格局?
How are you seeing this landscape in terms of custodial style, you know, with a regulated custodian versus the multisig or DLC style?
是的。
Yeah.
也许,我不太清楚目前有没有具体公司正在做DLC这一类的贷款。
So maybe, you know, I'm not aware of, like, specific companies doing the the DLC one, at least right now.
我觉得有些
I I I think some
方面。
of things.
Ligos Finance,还有我认为Lendersat可能也提到过一些相关内容。
Ligos Finance, and I believe Lendersat might have mentioned some of this also.
所以这更像是一个非常具体的‘是的’。
So that's that's kind of like a very specific Yep.
情况。
Case.
我想论点可能是:与其把资产交由托管,不如选择自托管,但使用DLC。
And I guess the argument would be, okay, instead of putting it into custody, you have self custody, but it's with a DLC.
需要明确的是,这里存在一种信任机制,或者说是价格预言机,与之相关。
Now to be clear, there's a there's a trust or there's a there's a there's an oracle, a price oracle that relates to that.
而且还有一些特定的要素。
And there's, you know, there's certain elements.
你知道,这是一种不同的安全模型。
You know, it's a different security model.
是的。
Yeah.
但只是想听听你的看法,以便对比一下,比如说,ARCH模型与其他模式的区别。
But just curious to get your thoughts on that just to compare, let's say, the arch model contrasted with other styles.
是的,我认为每种方式都有其优缺点,我先从架构模式说起,然后依次谈到多重签名,最后是DLC,我们可以一起讨论,如果你觉得我漏了什么,也欢迎补充。
Yeah, so I think each style has its pros and cons and maybe I'll just like start with the arch style and then go down towards the multi sig and then lastly the DLC and we can talk about this and feel free to chime in if you think I'm missing anything.
但说到架构模式,对吧?
But with the art style, right?
你需要信任贷款方不会再次抵押你的资产,同时也要信任他们选择的托管方,对吧?
Like you're trusting the lender that they are not re hypothecating that you're also trusting the custodian that they select, right?
对我们来说,托管方是Anchorage,其他贷款方和托管方可能也类似。
And so for us it's Anchorage for other lenders and maybe other custodians as well.
因此,这种信任层级是内置的,还包括了不重复抵押的机制。
So that's the layer of trust that's built in as well as like the non rehypothecation piece.
第二点,如果看多重签名,从某种奇怪的角度来说,确实有多个人持有钱包和币的密钥,你也持有其中一个。
The second is if you look at multi sig, in a weird way, yes, multiple people have keys to the wallets and to the coin and you hold one of them.
但三个密钥中需要两个,或者根据你的设置,其他密钥持有者足以在未经你许可的情况下转移你的比特币。
But two of the three or depending on how you set it up, there's enough other holders of the keys that they can move your Bitcoin without your permission.
所以,是的,你确实拥有一个密钥,但在我的理解中,这和托管模式类似,因为其他实体可以在你不知情或未明确授权的情况下控制你的比特币转移。
And so, yes, you have a key, but also in my mind, it's sort of like similar to custodial in that respect, meaning other entities control the ability to move your Bitcoin without and you don't have the express permission to block it or to enable it.
因此,在这方面,它与上述情况相似,但你也拥有其中一个密钥。
And so with that respect, find it similar but also you have one of the keys.
所以这与托管设置有独特区别。
So that's like uniquely different than the custodial setup.
在这两种情况下,这些公司通常都有贷款协议,贷款条款由该文件规定,其中明确了贷款金额、贷款价值比、追加保证金通知、清算等所有相关条款。
In both of these situations where you typically see these companies have a legal agreement for a loan document and the terms of the loan are governed by that document which outlines the loan amount, the LTV, the margin call, the liquidation, all of these sorts of terms.
然后我认为第三点是DLC。
And then I think on the third piece, have the DLC.
需要思考的问题是:预言机在哪里?
The things to think through are like, okay, where are the Oracles?
这在某种程度上类似于智能合约。
How was this actually It's similar to like a smart contract in some respect.
它是如何被编程的,以及类似的风险因素,同时你可能会失去使用多重签名或托管解决方案时的一些优势,比如有一支团队可以联系,或许能在追加保证金窗口期给予一些宽限。
How was it sort of programmed and things of that sort that are more of the risk factors as well as some of you lose maybe some of the pieces that come with using a multi sig or a custodial solution, which is there's a team that you can contact to maybe get some grace on a margin call window and things of that sort.
是的。
Yeah.
所以是的。
So yeah.
我想我们会看到的。
I think we'll see.
是的。
Yeah.
但公平地说,DLC类型的贷款还处于早期阶段。
And I think to be fair, it is early for the DLC style, of loan.
所以我们还不清楚那里具体会发生什么。
So we'll see exactly what happens there.
我知道Lava之前在做这个,但他们现在已经转向了。
I know Lava were doing that, but they've shifted now.
所以,关于这一点,我就说这些。
So, those are a few things on that.
至于贷款资金方面,你们是用法币操作吗?
In terms of the loan funding, like are you doing Fiat wise?
你们在做稳定币吗?
Are you doing stable coins?
那你们的计划是什么?
What's the plan there?
是的,我们实际上同时支持两种方式。
Yeah, so we actually support both.
我们可以直接将法币打入您的银行账户,或者使用稳定币。
We can do Fiat directly into your bank account or stable coins.
我们发现,我们的许多客户确实有现实世界的使用场景,比如借款买房、应对突发的现实开销,如医疗账单、税务账单,或者只是单纯借款。
What we've seen is many of our clients actually have real world use cases, whether they're borrowing to maybe buy their first house or they're handling real world expenses that have come up, whether it's a medical bill, a tax bill, or just borrowing.
他们长期以来一直是‘比特币富翁’,但现金却很紧张。
They've been sort of Bitcoin wealthy, if you will, cash constrained for a while.
因此,他们借款是为了应对其他生活需求,比如购买婚戒,或者去度假,诸如此类的事情。
So borrowing to handle other life events that they want to make happen, whether it's buying a wedding ring or just like having that vacation, things of that sort.
因此,我们大部分的放款实际上都是以法币形式打入客户的银行账户。
And so as a result, most of our dispersals we see are actually fiat into people's bank accounts.
是的。
Yeah.
我明白了。
I see.
另外,我想我开始注意到有些人正在讨论这一点。
Also, I guess the other thing I'm I'm starting to see some people talking about this.
我也想听听你的看法,有些人只是用iBit作为抵押品借款,或者他们去经纪商那里,持有iBit股票,然后以它作为抵押借款,因为他们能获得更低的利率。
I'm curious to get your reaction on it also, which is some people are just borrowing against like iBit or against, you know, like what they're doing is they're going to like a brokerage and they've got like iBit shares and borrowing against that because they're getting a cheaper rate.
你对此怎么看?
What's your view on that?
是的。
Yeah.
我认为,本质上这两种方式的利率最终会趋同,尤其是当你考虑到利率差异的原因时——这本质上是资本如何流入这个领域的问题。
So I think essentially like rates will converge across both of these, especially when you think about it, the reason there's a disparity of rates is essentially how capital pools fall into this space.
这里的所有贷款方本质上都是非银行机构,这意味着我们没有存款池可以用来放贷并套利更低的利率。
Like all of the lenders here are essentially non bank lenders, which means we don't have a set of deposits that we're able to lend out and sort of arbitrage a lower rate.
但随着机构对借入IBET越来越熟悉,我认为下一步自然就是:好吧,我们实际上已经对ETF进行借贷了。
But as institutions get comfortable lending against IBET, I think the next natural step is, okay, we basically already lend against like the ETF.
对现货进行借贷并没有什么不同。
Lending against spot is no different.
因此,你会看到银行以及其他通常资金成本最低的机构,比如养老基金和保险公司,开始向我们这样的公司提供资金,说:嘿,看,这和借入IBET的风险状况是一样的,而我们对此已经感到安心。
And so as a result, you'll see banks and other, like maybe the pensions, the insurance funds that often have the lowest cost of capital, start to provide capital to companies like us and say, hey, look, this is the same risk profile as lending against IBET, which we are comfortable with.
因此,你会看到利率大幅下降,两者之间的利率逐渐趋同。
And so as a result, you'll see rates drop dramatically sort of the convergence of the two.
是的,我明白。
Yeah, I see.
但公平地说,Stephane,当我们四年前刚开始时,利率大约是年化16%。
And To then, be fair, Stephane, like when we started four years ago, rates were like APRs were 16%.
现在,在最具竞争力的规模下,利率已经降到8.5%左右。
Now at the most competitive sizes, you're talking 8.5%.
因此,我们在较短的时间内已经看到了利率的显著下降。
So we've seen a good sort of shrinkage in the interest rate already over a shorter period of time.
是的。
Yeah.
既然我们在这里,我们谈谈吧,因为显然这是一个双边市场,对吧?
And while we're here, we're talking because obviously this is a two sided market, right?
一方面,你有贷款方,另一方面,你还有资本提供方。
On one side, you've got the lending side of the house and then you've also got the capital provider.
是的。
Yeah.
抱歉。
Sorry.
我想你可以这么说,一边是借款方,另一边是贷款方或资本提供方。
I guess you can say you've got the borrower side of the house and the lender side of the house, the capital provider.
所以,在你们这边,你们会去寻找资金,然后贷给你的借款客户。
So on your side, you're going out to source funds that you can then lend out to your borrowing customers.
那么,在资本提供方这边,你们的对话是怎样的?他们如何对这个模式感到安心?
So what's what has the conversation been like with on your capital provider side in terms of getting them comfortable with this model?
是的,我觉得我们很幸运找到了一群合作伙伴。
Yeah, so I think we've been lucky to find a group of partners.
银河数字是我们的一位公开支持者,主要在债务方面支持我们。
Galaxy Digital is one that is very public and a supporter of ours on the debt side.
我们设立了一个CLO结构,这是一种更传统的金融结构,债务投资者可以向这个结构注入资金,我们则可以从中提款来发放贷款。
We've raised a CLO structure, which is a more traditional financial structure where debt investors can sort of add capital to this structure that we're able to draw down on to fund our loans.
这确保了完全不存在再抵押的情况。
And it sort of all ensures there's no rehypothecation at all.
对我们来说,我认为这些对话随着时间推移变得越来越容易,这主要归因于两个因素。
For us, I think the conversations have just gotten easier over time where I think it's a function of two things.
Arch的规模持续扩大。
Arch's scale has continued to increase.
但其次,越来越多的私人信贷投资者,甚至整个债务领域的投资者,都开始对比特币这一资产类别感到安心。
But second, more and more investors on the private credit side or even in the debt world are getting comfortable with Bitcoin as an asset class.
ETF无疑起到了帮助作用。
The ETF certainly helps.
因此,我认为这些对话之所以变得更容易,是因为托管方的成熟度提升,以及所有这些因素的共同作用。
And so I think these conversations, you have maturity across custodians, all of these sort of things help these conversations.
我认为,随着时间推移,我们终将看到一些最大的银行和资本池进入这一领域,并真正对比特币抵押贷款感到安心。
And I think it's just a matter of time before we start to see some of the largest banks and pools of capital enter this space and really become comfortable with Bitcoin back loans.
是的,尤其是如果你从2022年开始观察,那时候一切都崩盘了,Genesis、Celsius和BlockFi这些公司纷纷出事。
Yeah, especially with the, I can imagine if you started in 2022, that was when like everything was blowing up and Genesis and Celsius and BlockFi and all these things were breaking down at that point.
这些年来,人们也更加关注安全性和相关方面。
There's also been a lot of, let's say, focus on security and these aspects, you know, just over these years.
关于储备证明、负债证明报告以及其他审计和SOC2等话题,已经有很多讨论。
There's been a lot of conversation around things like, you know, proof of reserves or some kind of proof of liabilities report and other audits and SOC two and things like that.
你在储备证明这方面还有什么其他关注点吗?
Do you have anything else on that side that you're looking at, like proof of reserves?
是的。
Yeah.
我们确实在关注这一点。
So we are looking at that.
我们是一家经过财务审计的公司。
We're a financially audited company.
在工程方面,我们也会进行渗透测试等安全检查。
We go through penetration testing and things of that sort on the engineering side as well.
我提到的另一项措施是,对于超过一定规模的贷款,比如10万美元,我们会将客户的资产单独隔离,这相当于为特定客户提供了实时的储备证明:看,这是你的比特币钱包地址。
And then the one piece I mentioned which we also do is for loans above a certain size, is a $100,000 We just segregate their assets and that's like a real time proof of reserves for a specific client saying, hey, look, this is your wallet address for your Bitcoin.
其他任何资金都不会进出这个地址。
You know nothing else will come in or out.
但今年我们还将开展更全面的储备证明工作。
But we will be doing a more holistic proof of reserves as well, this coming year.
是的。
Yeah.
看到这个领域的发展真有意思。
So it's interesting to see how the space is evolving.
现在另一个有趣的方面是,当然我们可以讨论自托管、安全、DLC模型、多重签名模型和托管模型,但另一个方面其实是个用户体验问题。
Now the other aspect that is interesting now, yes, of course, can talk about self custody and security and DLC model and multisig model and custodial model, but the other aspect of it is just kind of a UX thing.
对吧?
Right?
比如某些提供商可能会尝试垂直整合。
Like certain providers, I guess, are gonna try to vertically integrate.
举个例子,像美国的Strike,或者欧洲的一些其他平台,它们试图让你不仅能贷款,还能直接用一张卡消费贷款资金。
So they're gonna, like, as an example, like a strike in The US or, probably some others in in Europe and things where they are trying to offer you like, you can have a loan, but also a card that you can spend out, like, directly out of that.
你如何看待和比较这种趋势?
How are you sort of comparing and seeing that?
你觉得这更像是面向个人或零售用户的产品,而不那么适用于企业或其他相关金融服务?
Do you see that that's more like a a a retail or individual product and maybe not as useful for the companies or, like, some of these other financial services around that?
所以我的意思是,有些客户会希望获得一站式全包服务。
So I guess the point is some customers will want an all in one one stop shop.
是的。
Yep.
是的。
Yep.
而且我认为这也是我们路线图的一部分。
And and I think that's that's on our road map as well.
我们很快就能实现买卖比特币以及你提到的其他功能,比如卡片等。
We'll pretty soon have the ability to buy and sell Bitcoin as well as some of these other functionalities that you mentioned, a card, etcetera.
当我思考目标人群时,这取决于产品,对吧?
As I think through who the demographic for that is, it depends on the product, right?
无论是买卖比特币,我认为这对个人、高净值人群或企业都普遍适用。
Whether you're talking about buy and sell Bitcoin, I think that's broadly applicable to whether you're an individual, a high net worth or a business.
其他一些使用场景,比如借记卡或信用卡,则更针对个人和高净值人群,对企业的相关性较低。
Some of the other use cases may be like a debit or credit card are more tailored towards your individual and high net worth audience as opposed to less relevant for businesses.
不过我认为它在各个层面可能仍然有相关性。
Although I think it could be relevant across the spectrum still as well.
只是不同类型的企业。
Just a different type of business.
也许是那些仍由个人或单一家庭、单一股东拥有的中小型企业。
Maybe it's your small and medium businesses that are still independently owned or maybe like owned by a single family or a single shareholder.
但确实,Arch 也将推出这些额外产品,成为比特币用户更全面的金融服务提供商。
But yeah, roughly Arch will also be launching these additional products to become a more holistic financial services provider for Bitcoiners.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我很好奇,你们看到了怎样的增长?
And so I'm curious, like, what kind of growth you've seen?
我不知道你们是否像一些公司那样会公开数据,比如说‘这是我们贷款组合的规模’。
I don't know if you like some play some companies will actually disclose, like, say, hey, this is the size of our loan book.
你们能透露吗?或者至少给我们一个关于你们增长情况的大概印象?
Are you able to say that or no, or maybe give us a sense of like the growth you've seen?
是的,我想我们是从2022年2月开始的。
Yeah, so I think we started in February 2022.
实际上,我们作为Galaxy的一部分,会定期发布季度研究报告,分析比特币借贷市场的状况以及各家公司的表现。
Actually disclose our numbers as part of Galaxy puts out a research report every quarter as to the state of back lending and just how different companies are doing.
并非所有公司都选择参与,但我们在这一点上相当透明。
Not all companies opt in, but we're fairly transparent with that respect.
因此,我想说去年我们发放了大约4000亿美元的这类贷款。
And so I would say last year we did around $400,000,000,000 of originations of these types of loans.
到今年年底,我们的贷款组合规模达到了九位数。
And the loan book size at the end of this year was in the, in the 9 figure range.
因此,对我们来说,我们只是继续扩大规模,利用这一增长势头。
And so I think for us, we're just continuing to, to scale and build off of that momentum.
是的。
Yeah.
所以,这是一门大生意,我认为当我与行业人士交流时,确实看到了这一点,无论他们是否参与借贷,或者是否涉足这一领域。
So, I mean, it's, it's a big business and I think this is, definitely what I'm seeing when I talk to people in the industry, whether they like lending and, you know, in their if they're involved in this aspect of it.
那么,你认为下一个增长点在哪里呢?
So do you see, like, where do you see the next kind of angle for growth?
是像NGU那样,有新的比特币用户加入,想着‘我想用我的比特币做抵押贷款’,还是说你认为主要的增长点在其他地方?
Is it just, you know, as NGU, there's new Bitcoiners who come in and think, hey, I wanna borrow against my stack or like, where do you see the main kind of growth side here?
是的。
Yeah.
展开剩余字幕(还有 112 条)
我认为这是两个方面。
I I think it's twofold.
我认为比特币抵押贷款的市场正在持续扩张,这里有两大助力。
I think the the market for Bitcoin back loans continues to expand with with two two sort of tailwinds here.
一是比特币的升值,以及比特币市值的持续增长。
One is appreciation of Bitcoin and sort of like the market cap of Bitcoin continuing to grow.
二是新用户加入。
And second is new adopters.
我认为这两点都是推动比特币抵押贷款广泛发展的助力。
I think both of those are tailwinds for Bitcoin backed lending broadly.
如果你看一下,我记不清具体数字了,但如果你观察人们持有比特币时的借贷比例,以及他们相对于其他资产类别(如黄金、股票等)的借贷率。
If you look at, I can't recall the specific numbers here, but if you look at the borrow percentage of what people hold on Bitcoin and the rate that they're borrowing against with respect to any other asset class, whether it's gold, whether it's stocks, etcetera.
对于比特币来说,我们目前的借贷比例仍只是其他资产类别的很小一部分。
For Bitcoin, we're still only a fraction of all the other asset classes.
所以我认为在这方面我们还有很长的路要走。
So I think there's a long way for us to grow there.
我认为,对于Arch来说,第二点是持续拓展更多的金融产品。
And I think second specifically for Arch is the continuation of building out additional financial products.
无论是推出更多针对个人需求的定制化贷款结构化产品,还是提供市场上最低的买卖利率,比如借记卡、信用卡等服务。
Whether it's more structured products that are tailored lending use cases for individuals to meet them at their needs, or it's being able to buy and sell at some of the lowest rates on the market, the debit card, credit card, things of that sort.
是的,这里确实有一点趋同:通常,当人们开始使用其中一两种产品后,就会自然而然地想要尝试其他产品,因为理想情况下,你希望客户能使用你提供的所有服务。
Yeah, there's a little bit of a convergence there that like usually, once people are doing maybe one or two of these products, then it sort of makes sense to them to start trying to expand and doing the other products also because it's sort of like you wanna ideally have customers for all of what they're doing in the ideal case.
所以,我想总的来说,总会有一些人觉得,不。
So, yeah, I guess just overall, like, there there will be some people who just think, no.
保持谦逊,StackSats。
Just stay humble, StackSats.
不要做任何借贷相关的事情。
Don't do any debt stuff.
而另一些人则认为,不。
And other people who think, no.
要善用借贷。
Like, use debt.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道的。
You know?
那你对此持什么观点?
Where how where do you come down on that?
比如,这类产品适合谁,又不适合谁?
Like, who does it make sense for, and who should not use this kind of thing?
是的。
Yeah.
你知道吗,你提出的这个问题,即使在比特币之外也一直引发争论。
You know, the the question you asked is, like, just a question that has always sparked debate even outside of Bitcoin.
对吧?
Right?
人们一直在讨论,总的来说,你该不该负债?
Like, people talk about, should you have debt in general?
你应该贷款买房吗?
Should you take on a mortgage?
你只有在手头有足够现金时才买房,等等?
Do you buy a house only when you have the cash ready, etcetera?
我大致的观点是,债务可以成为积累财富的有力工具,但你必须意识到随之而来的各种风险和考量。
Where I roughly land is I think debt can be a very powerful tool to build wealth, but you have to be aware of all the sort of like risks and considerations that come with it.
因此,把自己杠杆用到极致,抵押所有资产,却没有任何应对价格下跌的应急计划,这无异于自取灭亡。
And so leveraging yourself to the max and borrowing against all of your stack and not having any sort of contingency plan for what would happen if the price decreases, think is a recipe for disaster.
我建议你仅针对实际需求,适度地以你的比特币作为抵押借款。
What I would recommend doing is sort of borrow moderately against your Bitcoin only for the needs that you have.
没有必要为了手头多点现金而借款,或者在其他用途上借款时,确保你的需求对你来说是重要的。
There's no need to borrow just to have extra cash lying around or maybe for other use cases, make sure that the needs you have are important for you.
你应适度地以你的资产作抵押借款。
You borrow against your stack modestly.
我认为这样能为你提供足够的缓冲空间,以应对各种市场周期。
And I think that should give you enough breathing room to sustain through various cycles.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我想,你最初在那些年份有22位用户,他们如今即便在比特币涨到66,000时,也见证了显著的上涨。
And so I guess you started in 22 users who started with you back in those days, they've seen, you know, even now at 66,000, they've seen a significant rise.
你如何看待这个问题?
What do you see?
比如,你是否看到一些客户在价格涨高后就选择平仓,还是只是不断展期、持续滚动?
Like, do you see some of the customers are typically, like, closing it out once the price has gotten higher or they just sort of keep rolling it forward, rolling it forward?
你通常看到客户采取什么样的退出策略?
What's the sort of exit strategy there that you typically see for customers?
是的,我认为这取决于具体的客户,对吧?
Yeah, I think it depends on the specific client, right?
有些人心里有明确的目标,比如:当比特币涨到这个价格时,我就想卖出相当一部分持仓。
Some folks have a target in mind where they're like, hey, at this point, at this price of Bitcoin, this is where I would like to sell a good portion of my stack.
而这完全取决于他们各自的入场成本。
And it just sort of depends on their own entry base.
我们看到,有些客户已经和我们借款四年了。
What we've seen is we have clients that are now on year four of borrowing with us.
他们只是不断续借。
They just continually roll it over.
这些客户都是长期持有者,并不打算出售。
And these are the folks that are just very long term holders and they're not looking to sell.
其他客户如果通过其他途径获得现金,比如卖了房产等,他们可以用这些资金偿还贷款,同时继续持有他们的比特币。
Other folks, if they come into cash from other avenues, maybe they sold a property that they had, etcetera, they're able to use those proceeds to pay off the loan and just continue holding their Bitcoin.
所以我认为,这取决于每个客户的特定情况。
So I think it varies just depending on the specific client and what their situation is.
是的,这很有趣。
Yeah, interesting.
正如你提到的,有些客户能够完全依靠比特币生活,并持续保持贷款,因为他们显然依赖于这样一个理念:比特币的复合年增长率高于利率。
And so as you mentioned, so there are customers who are able to just fully live off their Bitcoin and just kind of perpetually keep the loan, because obviously they're kind of relying on this idea of, hey, Bitcoin's CAGR goes up faster than the interest rate.
因此,理论上,只要你正确且保守地管理你的贷款价值比,随着时间推移,你的抵押品价值增长速度会超过贷款金额,即使你每年都要借新钱来维持生活。
And so in theory, like as long as you manage your LTVs and everything correctly and conservatively, over time your collateral stack, you know, just grows faster than the loan even though you're borrowing a new amount every year to live off it.
当然。
Absolutely.
当然。
Absolutely.
比特币的复合年增长率只是超过了你因利息而增长的债务。
It's just like the CAGR of Bitcoin outpaces, you know, the growth of your debt with the interest.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我认为,这正是人们必须真正做一下计算的时候了,打开一个电子表格,算一算你认为最坏的情况会怎样,以及你的应急计划是什么。
So I guess this is one of those things where people really have to kinda do the numbers, like pull up a spreadsheet and, like, crunch out some numbers on, like, what you think the worst case would be and what is your contingency as well.
因为我觉得,关键在于你是否还有其他资产?
Because I think that's kind of, you know, do you have other assets?
你是否有收入?
Do you have income?
你是否有现金可以用来偿还部分贷款?
Do you have, like, some cash that you can use to pay down some of the loan?
这类事情。
These kinds of things.
因为我觉得,有些事情在理论上听起来可能很简单,但真正发生在你身上时就不一样了,比如我们最近经历的,从1260美元的高点下跌了50%,跌到了大约6万美元左右。
Because I guess in you know, some of these things, they can sound easier in theory than it is, like, when it really happens to you and you've gone through, say, a 50% drawdown just as we, you know, we did, like, at the from the top at $1.26 k recently down to, call it, 60 k or whatever it was.
是的。
Yep.
你知道的,50%的回撤。
You know, 50% drawdown.
所以我认为,关键是要保持保守的比率,比如保持较低的贷款价值比,这样你才能处于安全区域。
So I think, I think it's just, it speaks to making sure you have conservative ratios in terms of like having a low LTV so that you're in a safe zone.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得你说得对。
I think what you said is right.
对吧?
Right?
人们有时很难想象这样的场景,但既然我们已经亲身经历了,很多人就会想,好吧,看看这些回撤,很多是通过ETF和更多机构资本进入这个领域造成的。
It's easier for, it's hard for people to sometimes to think through a scenario like this, but now that we've actually gone through it, many people thought, okay, look, some of these draw downs are done with ETFs and more institutional capital coming into this space.
所以,我们可能不会再看到如此剧烈的下行波动。
So we might not see such heightened volatility to the downside.
但显然,过去几个月我们已经见证了这一点。
But now, obviously, we've seen it over the last couple of months.
因此,我认为这对很多人来说还记忆犹新,他们现在能够真正地为此做规划,因为这不再是理论,而是他们刚刚亲身体验过的现实。
And so I think it's it's very fresh in a lot of people's minds and something that they're now able to actually plan for because it's very real that they just experienced this.
是的。
Yeah.
那么,关于未来趋势,你还有什么其他想法吗?比如,传统金融机构会不会也开始提供类似的产品?
So, any other thoughts on where things are going, with, I guess, like, even like TradFi banks, are they going to start offering a similar product?
然后呢?会发生什么?
And then what happens then?
比如,你是会和他们竞争,还是会与他们白标合作,或者他们收购你,又或者你直接成为一家银行?
Like, is it more like you will end up competing with them or white labeling with some of those services or maybe they buy you out or you become a bank?
是的。
Yeah.
我认为这是以上所有因素的结合,对吧?
I think it's a mix of all the above, right?
如果从传统角度来看,银行进入这个领域有几种方式,我认为它们确实会这么做。
If you look at it traditionally, there is a few ways I see banks entering this space and I think they will.
一种是它们可以向Arch和其他类似公司提供资本,说:我不希望亲自管理数十万笔贷款,尤其是在比特币价格波动、保证金追缴等复杂情况下。
One is they can provide capital to Arch and other such companies and say, look, I don't want to be in the business of sort of managing hundreds of thousands of loans on a 20 fourseven basis just because Bitcoin is 20 fourseven with margin calling and all of these sorts of situations.
对它们来说,更简单的方式是:Arch,这里有一十亿美元,你去管理一个以比特币为抵押的贷款组合。
It's easier for them to say, Arj, here's a billion dollars, go manage a Bitcoin backed loans book.
这对银行来说是一种便捷的运作方式。
And that's an easy way for the banks to function.
第二种是白标合作,我们已经收到过各种机构的接洽,包括一些小型银行、信用合作社等。
The second is white label, we've been approached by various institutions, whether it's your smaller banks, credit unions, things of that sort.
第三种是一些银行会选择自主研发。
And the third is, some banks will elect to build this in house.
我认为这个市场足够大,足以让多个参与者推出成功的产品并拥有相当数量的用户,但从这个角度来看,现在还太早,无法确切预测会如何发展。
And I think this market is large enough that multiple players will have a successful product and, a fair amount of users, but it's a little early to see how exactly it'll play out from that side.
是的。
Yeah.
好的。
Okay.
还有其他关于未来走向的想法吗?
Any other, I guess, thoughts on where things are going?
对比特币借贷市场有什么预测吗?
Any predictions on the Bitcoin lending market?
我粗略的预测是,即使在我们最近经历的高波动性期间,人们对这一产品的认知和了解仍在持续增长。
I think my rough prediction is like even through the heightened volatility that we've been seeing, education and awareness of this product continues to grow.
随着市场周期开始转变,价格开始上涨,采用率提升,比特币抵押借贷的市场规模将继续扩大。
And as we start to see the cycle turn around, as we start to see price appreciation, increase adoption, the market size for Bitcoin backed lending will just continue to scale.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我认为这是一个有趣的领域,但确实充满风险。
So I think it's, an interesting space, but certainly a place with risks.
我不得不反复强调,听众们,这绝不是随便去All In的事情。
I I just want I can't reiterate that enough for listeners that, this is not the thing to just go and YOLO on it.
当然,你刚刚经历了大幅下跌,但可能现在这正是每个人最关心的问题,因为我们刚刚经历了约50%的回撤。
Of course, you've just seen a big drawdown, but it's probably right now, it's probably more center top of everyone's mind because we've just gone through a 50 drawdown, let's say.
而讽刺的是,也许恰恰是在这个时候,反而可能是最佳时机——当然,我们仍可能进一步下跌。
Whereas maybe the time ironically, it might be sort of like I mean, of course, we could drop further from here.
对吧?
Right?
但讽刺的是,当市场低迷时,客户和参与其中的人反而更容易看到潜在的上升空间。
But ironically, it's sort of the time when the the customers and the people who are maybe engaging in this stuff, like, when it's kind of lower, they sort of see that upside more.
而在那种狂热时期,人们情绪高涨,觉得价格只会涨,这才更容易让人忽视LTV和应急计划,从而陷入更大风险。
Whereas, like, maybe during that kind of hype time, people are kind of euphoric and they're feeling like, oh, number is only gonna go up and then maybe that's where people get into more risk because they haven't thought enough about their LTV and you know, their contingency plans.
完全正确。
Absolutely.
这不是建议,但我感觉现在借钱或申请贷款可能比以前更安全,因为我们已经经历了大幅回撤。
This is not advice, but I feel like right now is probably a safer time to borrow or like to enter a loan than previously, just because we've already seen a big drawdown.
正如你所说,我们可能还会继续下跌,但我认为我们已经接近底部了。
As you mentioned, we could go lower from here, but I feel like odds are we're near a bottom.
因此,如果你现在开始借款,被强制平仓或触及清算阈值的可能性比以前低得多。
And so the chances of a margin call or liquidation threshold being hit if you start borrowing now is much lower than previously.
是的。
Yeah.
但和往常一样,听众们,你们都是成年人,所以请务必做好自己的分析。
But, yeah, as always, listeners, your big boys and big girls, so make sure you do your analysis.
希曼舒,抱歉,德鲁夫,人们在哪里可以找到你呢?
Himanshu, where can, sorry, Dhruv, where can people, find you online?
对。
Yeah.
所以,我认为最好的方式是访问 archlending.com,网站上有一个聊天按钮。
So, I think the best way is if you could just go to archlending.com and there is a chat button.
你可以为团队成员预约视频通话。
You can book a video call with someone for the team.
我也经常使用推特,还有我们公司的官方推特账号。
I'm on Twitter quite frequently as well as our company Twitter.
也许你可以根据情况把我们的社交媒体链接放上去,不过我们在推特上的账号是archlending,我的个人账号是DhruvPatel34。
Maybe we can link the socials wherever Stephane you seem fit, but archlending on Twitter, I'm DhruvPatel34.
所以我认为这些是我们保持联系的最佳渠道。
And so I think those are roughly the best places for us to be in contact.
太棒了。
Excellent.
谢谢你能来参加,Dhruv。
Well, thanks for joining me Dhruv.
很好。
Awesome.
谢谢你邀请我,Stephane。
Thanks for having me, Stephane.
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