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如果你找来50台比特币矿机,把它们摆在一间房间里,然后向它们展示这些指标,它们都会像看着一个疯子一样看着你。
If you get 50 Bitcoin miners and you get them sat down in a room and you show them these metrics, they will all look at you like you are an insane person.
因为它们明白,生产比特币本身没有成本,但实际上生产比特币是有成本的,而这完全取决于实际进行挖矿的个人。
Because what they understand is that there is no cost of producing a Bitcoin, but there are costs of producing a Bitcoin, and it's totally contingent on the individual who is actually producing the Bitcoin.
大家好,欢迎回到斯蒂芬·洛韦拉的播客。
Hi, everyone, and welcome back to Stefan Lovera podcast.
今天,我们将讨论比特币挖矿、能源以及如何将兆瓦货币化。
Today, we're gonna be talking about Bitcoin mining and, energy and monetizing the megawatt.
今天和我一起的是罗伯特·沃伦。
Joining me today is Robert Warren.
他是比特币公园的研究主管。
Is the head of research over at Bitcoin Park.
我认识罗伯特已经有一段时间了,一直都在比特币圈子里见到他。
I've known Robert kind of around, you know, the Bitcoin scene for a little while.
一直想请他来做客。
Been meaning to get him on.
只是之前一直没机会,直到最近,直到现在。
Just haven't had the chance to until recently, until just now.
我知道你和团队最近刚举办了2026年纳什维尔能源与矿业峰会。
And I know you and the guys just recently hosted the Nashville Energy and Mining Summit twenty twenty six.
所以,首先欢迎来到节目,也许你可以先给我们简单介绍一下
So, yeah, first off, welcome to the show and maybe just give us a kind of
一个关于能源与矿业峰会的简要概述。
a a quick overview on what happened at the Energy and Mining Summit.
非常高兴能来到这里。
Yeah, huge pleasure to be here.
我们刚刚举办了国家能源与矿业峰会。
So we, yeah, we just hosted the National Energy and Mining Summit.
再过几个月,Bitcoin Park 就将迎来五周年纪念,这真是太棒了,因为这次活动又是全场满座,而且每年都在变得越来越大。
This is now going on almost the fifth anniversary of Bitcoin Park is coming up in June so it's amazing because this has been kind of another sold out show and it's only gotten bigger and bigger every year.
当我们谈论能源与矿业时,如果你回看两三年前——在比特币挖矿领域,那似乎已经是远古时代了,因为变化实在太快——那时我们还在摸索很多基本原理,比如如何运行这么多机器、如何构建控制系统、如何管理热量、如何管理网络连接,我们还在讨论各种矿池 payout 方法。但就在极短的时间内,这些讨论几乎被彻底颠覆了,而颠覆这一切的,正是人工智能数据中心负载、尤其是AI高性能计算负载需求的激增,这彻底改变了公开市场格局;同时,许多人找到了极其创新的商业模式,能够在非常独特的条件下以极高的利润挖矿,这包括余热回收、在非洲偏远地区利用闲置发电资产变现等等。
What we are talking about when we're talking about this energy and mining situation you know if you're looking back two three years which seems like you know ancient times in the world of Bitcoin mining because things move so quickly we were still figuring out a lot of the basic principles of just how to run these many machines and how do you build the control systems, how do you manage the heat, how do you manage the connectivity, we were still having conversations around various pool payout methodologies and in a very very short period of time that conversation has been almost totally upended and it's been totally upended by this explosion in demand for particularly AI data center loads these kind of AI HPC loads which has really changed the public market space and then it has been radically changed from the explosion of folks that are finding very very creative business models that allow them to mine Bitcoin very profitably under very very unique conditions and that's everything from reusing heat to going in monetizing you know stranded generation assets in the Middle Of Africa.
因此,比特币挖矿领域的世界已经极大地扩展了,而且以其他方式发生了转变。
So the world has expanded really really intensely in the Bitcoin mining space it has shifted in other ways.
话虽如此,我们仍感觉这场对话才刚刚开始。
With that being said it still feels like we're just at the beginning of the conversation.
在能源和挖矿方面,还有很长的路要走。
There's a lot of runway left to go in energy and mining.
是的。
Yeah.
让我们谈谈你报告中提到的一个方面,即能源与人类繁荣的关系,对吧?
Let's talk about one aspect from your report where you touch on just energy as human flourishing, right?
我认为人们现在开始理解这一点了。
I think people are now starting to understand that.
所以,你能从你的角度解释一下吗?
So can you just explain that from your perspective?
为什么
Why is
能源与人类繁荣?
energy human flourishing?
完全正确。这是我们的核心假设。正如你所提到的,我们与所主办的峰会同步发布焦点论文。这些峰会通常一票难求,人人都想亲临现场,但真正重要的是,我们要将这一理念更广泛地传播出去。我们发布的这篇焦点论文题为《将兆瓦货币化》,其核心假设非常简单——因为它有数百年的实证数据支持:地球上不存在一个高绩效、高GDP但低能耗的国家。
A 100% so it's really, it's the core assumption and what you're referring to we produce spotlight papers in conjunction with the summits that we facilitate so the summits they tend to sell out you know everybody wants to kind of be there in the room but what's really important is that you're kind of sharing that message with people more broadly so we produce these spotlight papers this one was titled Monetizing the Megawatt and the core assumption that we make and we think it's a really simple assumption because it's an assumption that you can make backed by hundreds of years of empirical data which is that you don't have anywhere on earth a high performing high GDP low energy country.
如果你在XY坐标轴上绘制全球各国的GDP与能源消耗数据,你会发现100%的情况下,能源消耗更高的国家必然更富裕、更成功。这与我们许多人的认知恰恰相反。我今年三十多岁,像我这样的千禧一代,成长于‘能源效率巅峰’的时代,那时我们被灌输必须全面转向100%可再生能源,同时伴随着一种观念:少用能源是好事,似乎有一种道德义务要求我们节约能源。但实际数据表明,这种思维方式恰恰是错误的。
If you plot on, you know, an X Y chart and you have, you know, the GDP and the energy consumption of any country on earth you will always find 100% of the time that places that are more consumptive that are consuming more energy are necessarily wealthier, they're more successful and this is a bit of an inversion of the way that a lot of us, you know I'm in my thirties and a lot of us millennials we grew up kind of during the era of the peak energy efficiency that we have to all switch to a 100 renewables and coinciding with that was this idea that it was sort of a good to use less energy that there was some sort of moral imperative to not use energy and what the data says in actuality is that this is actually the opposite of the way that we should be thinking about this.
可再生能源当然很好,我们应该不断探索更多创新的方式,尽可能多地生产能源。
Know renewables are great, we should be coming up with more and creative ways to produce as much energy as possible.
我们绝不能试图让人们减少能源使用,因为能源本身正是我们得以完成五十年前、六十年前甚至七十年前完全无法想象的各种操作的基础。
We should not be under any circumstances trying to get people to use less energy because energy in and of itself is the basis for us being able to perform operations that were totally alien even fifty, sixty, seventy years ago.
我们消耗的能源量与人类的繁荣直接相关——无论是你厨房里的器具,比如洗碗机、冰箱,还是停在你院子里的汽车,无论是特斯拉还是内燃机的汽油或柴油车,能够获取并使用能源,直接决定了21世纪人类的生活质量。因此,我们首先要扭转一个观念:别再认为我们应该追求更少的能源,而要认识到,人类的繁荣只有在持续生产和消费更多能源时才能不断扩展。这使我们作为人类能更加富有创造力,并产生真正卓越的成果。
The amount of energy that we consume is directly related to our flourishing whether it's the things, the implements that you have in your kitchen, your dishwasher, your refrigerator, whether it's the vehicle that is parked outside in your lawn whether it's a Tesla or it's an internal combustion engine gasoline or diesel the ability to harness and use energy is directly correlated to the quality of your life as a human being in the twenty first century so we really want to start with this initial inversion which is get it out of your heads that we should be chasing less energy and get it into your head that human flourishing only continues to expand if we continue to generate and consume more energy it allows us to be far more creative as human beings and produce really really
非常显著的成果。
really substantial outcomes.
我完全同意,因为我觉得我们年龄相仿,我38岁,确实曾对许多‘觉醒政治’和这种席卷全球的‘净零’思维感到沮丧。
I'm totally with you right because I mean I think we're similar age right I'm 38 and certainly I was frustrated by a lot of the woke politics and this kind of net zero style of thinking, which has permeated a lot of the world.
现在看来,情况正在扭转。
And now it seems it's turning around.
但有一段时间,甚至在比特币圈子里,我们都在应对那些批评比特币挖矿耗能的人。
But for a while, even in Bitcoin land, we were dealing with people who were trying to criticize Bitcoin mining for energy use.
而现在,随着人工智能的兴起,奇怪的是,这些观点一下子全被抛到脑后了。
And then now all of a sudden with AI, it's funny that all of a sudden, that's all out the window now.
现在大家都说:彻底反转过来吧。
Now it's everyone's like, turn turn it full around.
油门全开。
Blasters are on.
你知道,推进器全速运转。
You know, thrusters are full.
我们需要像钻探吧,钻探吧那样,一切都彻底反转了。
We need to, like, drill baby drill, everything is like So turned
从你的角度看,这感觉怎么样?
I'm curious what has that been like from your perspective?
有趣的是,在比特币世界里,我们很少会为自己所奠定的基础而最终获得人们的赞誉。关于比特币挖矿的最初讨论中,那些外行人士反而抢在我们前面占据了先机。
You know it's funny because in the world of Bitcoin very rarely do we find ourselves laying the groundwork for things that people eventually celebrate and the initial conversation around Bitcoin mining the goofballs got a really solid head start on us.
他们发表论文声称每一笔交易都会杀死六条鲸鱼,烧掉一个奥运标准泳池的水量,用极其糟糕的科学方法试图说服人们,我们最终会耗尽自然界所有的能源。而正是这些有偏见的研究催生了一群人,他们拼尽全力纠正这种叙事,通过比特币挖矿本身的实证数据,展示它在并网、离网时的实际作用——无论是减少油田的排放,还是通过在ERCOT或其他美国ISO/RTO电网中运行来稳定电价,比特币挖矿都能为电网定价提供缓冲,或为发电厂(无论是燃煤、核电还是联合循环燃气电厂)的生产功能带来稳定作用。反驳这些初始论文所产出的研究成果,其数量和质量远超原论文本身。因此,如今要通过观察现实世界中人们的真实行为,以及科研界所产出的成果,来支持这些荒谬论点,已经变得极其困难。
They were publishing papers about how every transaction kills six baby whales and burns an Olympic sized pool of water and they were doing absolutely terrible science trying to convince people that we would eventually consume all of the energy in the natural world and what was spurned from that bad research, that very biased research were a group of individuals who worked their absolute tails off to correct the narrative and to really through the empirical data of Bitcoin mining itself showing what it does when it's on grid, when it's off grid whether it's reducing emissions in the oil field or whether it's stabilizing pricing by living on a grid like ERCOT or living on any ISO or RTO in The United States its ability to stabilize pricing and essentially provide a buffer to grid pricing or the actual production function, the generator production whether it's a coal plant or a nuclear plant or a combined cycle gas plant, the amount of work that has been produced rebutting those initial papers has been an order of magnitude larger than those papers and so it has now become very very hard, by looking at the actual world, what people are doing, and then by looking at the scientific world, the research that people are producing to make these kind of silly arguments.
所以,在比特币领域,人们第一次真正开始用我们的数据说:‘等等,这似乎并不一定是什么坏事。’
So for like the first time in the Bitcoin universe people are actually using our data to go, Oh wait a second, this isn't actually something, this isn't something bad necessarily.
不过,必须明确区分的是,比特币挖矿作为能源消费者,与人工智能的能源消费模式截然不同。
Now that being said, it is really important to distinguish that, you know, Bitcoin mining as a consumer of energy is a very different kind of consumer than AI.
要知道,人工智能目前还处于发展的初期阶段。
You know AI is really in the first inning in terms of what they are building out.
它们的资金实力远超比特币矿工。
They have substantially deeper pockets than Bitcoin miners.
它们倾向于签订更长期的合同,比如来到一个城镇后说:‘我们想签一份十年或十五年的AI合作协议。’
They tend to look for these much longer duration contracts so they would come to a town and they would say we want to sign a ten year or fifteen year AI deal.
从融资角度来看,这对许多基础设施供应商来说非常有利,因为他们能提前锁定大量资本流入,而这些合作方的资金实力极其雄厚。
Now on the financing side of things this is great for a lot of folks who are selling the infrastructure because it's a lot of sort of forward capital that they know is going to be coming to them and these are folks with very deep pockets.
关于对电网的影响,这一点我们还没有真正弄清楚,原因在于比特币网络会为你提供的算力支付报酬。
In terms of the effect on the grid that is something that we still have yet to really dial in and the reason for that is because the Bitcoin network you know what Bitcoin is willing to pay you for your hash rate.
我们有一种很棒的商品,叫做算力价格。
We have this great commodity called hash price.
在人工智能和高性能计算领域,这些大型数据中心负载的支付意愿远高于比特币世界中的支付水平,这开始在电网消费者之间制造一些错误的激励,因为这些大型人工智能农场和集群愿意支付比普通消费者更高的价格。
When it comes to the world of AI, HPC these large data center loads these folks are willing to pay substantially more than what we would be paying in the world of Bitcoin and that starts to create some misincentives when it comes to consumers on the grid because these large AI farms, these large AI clusters are willing to pay more than consumers.
但这并不意味着它们会吞噬一切,在冬天把你的祖母的暖气关掉;它意味着这些企业的运营方式不同,我们必须高度警惕,因为电网运营商需要确保的不仅是让灯亮着,还要让给实际用户——你和我——的电费保持在合理范围内。
Now that does not necessarily mean they're going to eat the world and turn off your grandma's heating in the middle of winter but it means that there's a different way that these businesses operate that we have to be really cognizant of because the grid operator needs to make sure that they keep not just the lights on but they keep the cost of the electricity that is going to the actual user, the people, you and me, in a reasonable range.
是的,这很有趣。另一个重大转变,想听听你的看法:我们看到许多所谓的大型矿场正在转向人工智能领域。
Yeah fascinating and the other big shift obviously to get your thoughts on we're seeing a lot of these big quote unquote mega miners switch to becoming AI.
其中一些正在转型,过去几年我们已经看到这种情况,它们会部分转向人工智能,有些则完全转向人工智能,甚至不再进行比特币挖矿。
Now some of them are pivoting, you know, saw this over the last few years, they would pivot maybe some of them partway to AI and some of them have just gone full AI and just like not even doing Bitcoin mining anymore.
所以我认为Iron就在这个阵营,Bitfarms也在,可能还有其他一些公司也是如此。
So I believe Iron is in that camp, Bitfarms is in that camp and maybe some others out there.
你能就此评论一下吗?
So can you just comment a bit on this?
这对比特币挖矿行业意味着什么?
What does this mean for the Bitcoin mining industry?
这是个很好的问题。
It's a great question.
简而言之,这一切对比特币都是好事,包括这一点,对吧?
So the long and the short of it is that everything is good for Bitcoin, this included, right?
从公开市场角度来看,你需要记住的是,上市公司比特币矿工与你自己使用BidX设备、为家里供暖,甚至拥有100兆瓦规模的大型私有运营商并不相同。
What it means in terms of the public markets is in which you have to remember is that the publicly traded Bitcoin miner is not the same as you with your BidX or you heating your home or even a large private operator that has a 100 megawatts and is doing their own deals.
上市公司必须最大化股东的利润,而幕后发生的情况是,你看到了来自积极股东的巨额投资,他们说:你们以为自己是比特币挖矿公司。
A publicly traded company has to maximize the profit of its shareholders and what has been happening behind the scenes is that you've seen really really large investment from activist shareholders that have said Listen you guys think you are Bitcoin mining companies.
你们根本不是比特币挖矿公司。
You are not Bitcoin mining companies.
你们实际上是基础设施开发公司,这一点从你们四处签约、抢购吉瓦级可用电力容量的行为中就能看出来——你们已经成功做到了,恭喜!
You are infrastructure development companies and the way that we know that is that you've been going around signing deals scooping up gigawatts of available capacity and you've done that successfully, congratulations!
但如今,如果你要真正管理好股东资本,并实现最高的投资回报率,你就不能对这个新兴客户群体视而不见。因此,从金融市场角度来看,这种转型完全合理,实际上也是最明智的选择。
But now, if you're going to actually steward shareholder capital and you're going to produce the highest ROI on it, you can't sit there and just ignore this new customer base that has emerged and so the transition is from a financial markets perspective totally rational and in fact the best choice for folks to make.
有趣的是,你现在有了一个高回报的机会,可以通过签订长期的AI协议赚大钱。
What becomes interesting is that okay you've got this high dollar opportunity where you can make a ton of money signing these long term AI deals.
这意味着短期内,很多人会减少他们的比特币挖矿业务。
That means in the short term that folks are going to be ramping down a lot of their Bitcoin mining.
因此,在二级市场上,这对想要大量收购近期生产的矿机的人来说是绝佳机会,因为市场上会涌现出大量这样的设备,这无疑为动手改造和创新提供了更多空间——就像当年人人都在升级到S19时,大量S9被成批淘汰,许多人正是通过在家摆弄这些S9开始学习比特币挖矿的。所以从普通玩家和先驱者的角度来看,那些希望学习的人,这绝对是利好,因为当这些公司逐步将其部分业务转向AI高性能计算时,大多数超过十八个月的矿机(这是常见的折旧周期)都会流入二级市场,而你和我如今就有了机会找到它们,无论是作为现有矿场的备用设备,还是仅仅作为低价入门设备。我们尚不清楚最终的稳定点会在哪里。
So in the secondary market this is great for folks that want to scoop up a bunch of near recent generation machines on the secondary market because it's going to provide a lot of that and that inevitably provides a lot more opportunity for tinkering, lot more opportunity for creativity, same thing when everybody was upgrading to S19s and all the S9s were going off in pallets and a lot of people got started learning how to Bitcoin mine on these S9s just tinkering in their homes so from a, from a PLEB perspective, from a Pioneer perspective, the people that want to learn, this is net positive because it means that as they're slowly emptying out or transitioning portions of their businesses into AI HPC, most of those machines if they're over eighteen months which is a common sort of depreciation schedule, most most of those machines are going to hit the secondary market and you and I now have the opportunity to find them, whether it's as a backup for our current farm or it's just a cheap unit that we can get access to, so we have yet to find out what the stabilizing point is.
许多公司说:听好了,我们可以做AI和高性能计算,但这会非常昂贵,你必须建设全套备用发电设施,甚至可能需要自己建一座电厂才能确保成功运行。
A lot of companies say, Listen, okay we can do AI, HPC, it's going to be really expensive, you have to build all this backup generation, maybe I have to go build a power plant to make sure I can do it successfully.
但我们也不能直接彻底放弃所有比特币挖矿,对吧?
We can't also just get rid of all the Bitcoin mining, right?
因为如果我们公司签订了必须为电网提供服务的合同——这在德克萨斯州非常普遍——我们仍然负有责任,仍然在为电网提供有价值的服务:作为可中断负载,让ERCOT可以随时呼叫我们,问‘你能削减100兆瓦吗?你能削减200兆瓦吗?’这种价值是无法立即摆脱的。从长远来看,我很期待看到这些混合型、并网的吉瓦级设施未来会是什么样子。
Because if we as a company serve have contracts where we have to you know provide services to the grid which is very common in Texas we're still liable for that and we're still providing a valuable service to the grid being a curtailable load being someone that you know ERCOT can call on and say hey can you scrub a 100 megawatts, can you scrub 200 megawatts that's still something that is valuable that you can't necessarily get out of immediately as far as what it does in the long term I think it would be very interesting to see what these hybridized grid connected you know gigawatt scale sites look like in the future.
至于这需要多长时间,实际上只受限于人们建设这些数据中心的能力,因为这些数据中心比我们在比特币挖矿行业所做的一切都要复杂得多。
As far as how long that takes it's really only constrained by the ability of folks to build these data centers because these data centers are substantially more complicated than what we've been doing in the Bitcoin mining industry.
在比特币挖矿行业,我们只要在后院搭个棚子,让机器一直运转就心满意足了,但当你想运行AI集群时,这种做法是行不通的。
Know the Bitcoin mining industry we're happy to put a shed in the backyard and just keep the suckers running that is not going to fly when you're trying to run an AI cluster.
是的
Yeah.
说到这个,你认为这对算力增长意味着什么?
And then while we're on that, what do you think it means for hash rate growth?
比如,你会不会说,由于这种情况,算力增长可能会稍微放缓?因为以前那些大型公开矿企,现在有些正在部分或完全转向AI。
Like would you say hash rate growth might slow down a little bit because of this because now what was previously this big these big public miners, they're some of them are pivoting either partially or wholly to AI.
这对比特币挖矿的算力增长意味着什么?
What does that mean for Bitcoin mining hash rate growth?
还是你觉得,算力还是会增长,只是比以前慢一点?
Or do you just think, like, it's still just gonna grow, but just, like, a bit slower than what it was before?
或者你觉得呢?
Or where are you
那里?
at there?
这是个好问题。
It's a good question.
这肯定会产生影响,你知道,当Foundry的CEO说他们看到网络因为德克萨斯州和美国东南部的暴风雪而变慢时,你会想,好吧,这些可是相当大的负载。
It will have an impact right you know that when you have the CEO of Foundry saying that they can see the network slowing down on their end because there is a snowstorm in Texas, a snowstorm in the American Southeast, you go, Okay, those are pretty big loads.
这代表着大量潜在的兆瓦电力将转向人工智能领域。
That's a lot of, you know, potential megawatts that are going to be transitioning to AI.
那么问题来了,这到底意味着什么?
The question then is, you know, what, what, what does that mean?
从某种意义上说,这意味着网络正在进一步去中心化。
So, what it means in one sense is that you are now actually kind of decentralizing the network even more, you know.
当所有这些上市公司纷纷扩大比特币挖矿规模时,曾引发巨大争议,人们看到它们后说:‘如果你想控制比特币挖矿,把这么多吉瓦级的矿场集中在一起,确实是个令人担忧的局面。’
There was a big, big hullabaloo when all of these publicly traded Bitcoin miners were ramping up where people looked at them and said, Hey, if you want to get state capture of Bitcoin mining, having a bunch of gigawatt scale sites is a pretty scary place to put all this hash rate.
不过话说回来,如今比特币网络整体规模已经非常庞大,任何邪恶的国家试图控制特定数量的算力,这种想法依然极其不现实——毕竟,地球上任何国家或政府要想协调控制如此庞大的兆瓦级电力并专用于某种邪恶目的,可能性微乎其微,尤其是在当前规模下。
Now that being said, the Bitcoin network as a whole is so large at this point that this whole idea of an evil nation state is going to co opt XYZ amount of hash rate is still very very infeasible, still extremely infeasible just because at the end of the day it the likelihood of any state, any government on earth being able to capture that many megawatts and allocate them exclusively towards some evil purpose in a coordinated way is a little bit silly at this point with the size of things.
实际上,这意味着全球各地更多人有机会在公开市场上继续扩展他们的业务。
What it could mean in practice is that more folks have the opportunity in the public markets all across the world to continue to grow their operations.
可以合理地认为,算力在未来一年左右可能会维持在一个平稳水平,或略有下降;但私有运营商知道,许多公司正在退出大量算力,因此他们可能只是将这些原本属于企业的算力转移到自己手中,并愉快地扩大规模。因此,最终结果是,这对去中心化有利,也有助于降低国家控制的风险,因为这些算力不再局限于公开上市、经过审计和监管的体系中。至于之后会发生什么,我们只能拭目以待,让网络本身的激励机制继续发挥作用。
Know it's very reasonable to think that hashrate would hang out at a level playing field or continue to drop a little bit over the next year or so but that being said the private operators know that a lot of these folks are rolling off on a lot of hashrate so they may just be transitioning this previously corporate hash rate into their private hands and just happily expanding so the net out is that it's good for decentralization, it is good for reducing the risk of state capture because it's no longer a machine that's living in a publicly traded you know audited regulated space and in terms of what happens after that we'll just have to see, we'll just have to let the incentives on the network continue to operate.
是的,现在另一个常见的讨论点,尤其是在所谓的熊市或这个中期回调期——不管你怎么称呼它——就是生产成本这个概念。
Yeah, now another common discussion point that's coming up nowadays especially in the, let's say, the bear market or this mid cycle dip, whatever whatever we're calling it, is this concept of cost of production.
我们看到的是,有时技术分析师或链上分析师会据此指出:哦,看,我们现在处于熊市或这个回调期。
And what we're seeing is sometimes like a TA or an on chain analyst will sort of look at that and say, oh, look, we're in the bear market or we're in this dip.
通常,生产成本一直被视为比特币价格的底部或底部区间。
And typically the cost of production has been kind of like, let's say a bottom or a bottom zone for the Bitcoin price.
因此,他们通常会展示一张图表,并说:这就是生产成本。
And so they will typically put up a chart and they'll say, this is the cost of production.
我知道你对这个观点有异议。
Now I know you've got issues with this.
你能解释一下,这种静态生产成本分析的问题出在哪里吗?
Can you explain what is the issue with, this kind of analysis of static cost of production?
我很喜欢这个观点。
I love it.
我很感谢你直接戳中了我的软肋。
I appreciate you, you, tapping right in the soft spot.
所以,你知道,比特币,如果你去和一个比特币矿工交谈,把50个矿工聚在一起开个圆桌会议,然后在他们面前展示一张图表,说:‘嘿,各位,这是生产成本’,并使用那些最著名的模型——比如Caprioli的模型,Glassnode发布的模型,还有许多聪明人花了很多时间去估算,以便做出一个非常美观的展示图表。
So it's, know bit, bitcoin, you talk to a bitcoin miner, you find, you get 50 bitcoin miners together and you have a roundtable conversation and you throw a chart up in front of them and you say, Hey guys, here's the cost of production and you use, you know, the most famous models that are out there, there's a guy, Caprioli who has one, Glassnode has one that they produced and very smart folks who have gone through and put a lot of time into trying to make an estimate so that they can have something very beautiful and pretty display on a
图表。
chart.
但如果你
But if
把50个比特币矿工叫到一间屋子里,给他们看这些指标,他们都会像看你是个疯子一样看着你,因为他们明白,不存在所谓的‘生产一个比特币的成本’,但确实存在‘生产比特币的成本’,而这完全取决于实际进行生产的个体。
you get 50 Bitcoin miners and you get them sat down in a room and you show them these metrics they will all look at you like you are an insane person because what they understand is that there is no cost of producing a Bitcoin but there are costs of producing a Bitcoin and it's totally contingent on the individual who is actually producing the Bitcoin.
那我们为什么在这里纠结细节呢?
And so why are we splitting hairs here?
这为什么重要?
Why does this matter?
这很重要,因为在比特币领域,有些数据、统计和信息是你能够确切知道的。
It matters because there are certain data points and statistics and things in the Bitcoin space that you can know.
你可以知道。
You can know.
你可以知道价格。
You can know price.
你可以知道难度。
You can know difficulty.
你知道价格,可以去交易所看看,也许价格之间存在套利机会,但你能非常非常准确地了解此刻比特币的实际价格。
You know price you go to an exchange and maybe there's an arbitrage opportunity between price but you can very very accurately get a sense of you know what is the price of Bitcoin right now at this very moment.
当你查看难度时,也可以做同样的事情。
You can do the same when you look at the difficulty.
为什么?
Why?
难度是一个协议中的单一数值,每两周调整一次,并且被所有节点共享,因此你能100%确定当前的难度值。
Difficulty is a single number that is in the protocol and it changes every two weeks and is shared amongst the nodes, and so you know with 100% assurance what the difficulty is.
你能以极高的准确率知道比特币的价格,但当你试图计算比特币的生产成本时,就必须问:你怎么知道生产比特币的成本是多少?
You know with extremely high rate of accuracy what the price of Bitcoin is and when you try to take something like the cost of producing a Bitcoin you have to say well how do you know the cost of producing a Bitcoin?
任何试图制作图表的人都必须做出大量假设。
Anybody who's trying to make a chart has to make a lot of assumptions.
你必须对人们的电力输入成本做出假设,对他们的运营效率做出假设,对他们在运行设备时如何忽略一些可能不太方便的外部因素做出假设,然后把这些都叠加起来——至少就这些指标而言——基于这样一个观念:所有这些指标都是滞后的,它们都受难度调整的制约,而难度会随着人们关机或开机而变化。
You have to make assumptions about the cost of people's input electricity, you have to make assumptions about the efficiency of people's operations, you have to make assumptions about the way in which they're able to run their machines kind of ignoring some outside factors that may be kind of inconvenient and then you layer it all on top at least as far as these metrics are concerned with the notion that all of these metrics are backwards looking and they are all backwards looking regulated by what the difficulty is and if people turn off or turn on.
所以这不是一个很有用的指标。
So it's not a very useful metric.
它或许可以通过一个论点变得有用:我想知道比特币矿工圈内是否正发生某种为期两周的紧张态势,你或许能以一定百分比的准确度判断,比如,我感觉到紧张程度更高或更低了。
It could be useful by argument to say I want to know if there's some kind of two week tension happening in the Bitcoin miner universe and you might be able to say with X percent accuracy that okay I have a sense that there's more tension or there's less tension.
如果挖矿在扩张,而难度在上升,我会说:哦,看来系统内的紧张程度降低了。
If mining is expanding and the difficulty is going up I would say oh it seems like there's less tension in the system.
如果难度在下降,而你看到相反的情况发生,你可能会从宏观角度说:哦,看来紧张程度增加了,因为人们不得不关机,你正在触及边际矿工,通过这些指标,你可以对比特币挖矿做出非常粗略、非常宏观的判断。
If the difficulty is going down and you're seeing the opposite happen you might say in the macro sense oh it seems like there's more tension, there's kind of a tightening because people are having to turn off and you're hitting this marginal miner and you can say very rough, very high level, very macro y type things about Bitcoin mining if you use those metrics.
但对于坐在房间里那五十个矿工来说,你什么也说不了,因为每个人都有自己的生产成本。
To those fifty minuteers sitting in a room you can say nothing to them because each of them has their own cost of production.
每个人使用的设备都不同。
Each of them has different machines.
有个人可能完全免费获得电力,因为他和发电方签了购电协议。
One guy may be getting all of his electricity for free because he has a deal, an off taking deal with the guy who, who owns the generation.
这笔交易的经济模式与那个只靠太阳能、每天只运行50%时间的人完全不同,因为另一半时间太阳是落下的。
The economics of that deal are entirely different from the guy who only operates on solar and only operates 50% of the time because the sun's down the other half of the time.
这个人的经济模式与那个用挖矿来给自家供暖的人也完全不同。
That guy's economics are totally different from the guy who was heating his house.
这个人的经济模式又和那个拥有五兆瓦小型矿场、在日内电力市场买卖期货、试图对冲价格或从中赚取一点额外收益的人截然不同。
That guy's economics are totally different from the guy who has a little five MW site and he's buying into the futures, the electricity markets in the day and trying to basically hedge price or make a little extra off of that.
如果你只想用一个单一指标、一张图表来看问题,当你深入研究比特币挖矿时,就会发现实际上你能得出的有用结论非常少。
If you want to look at things from a pretty single metric, a single chart, when you start to dig into them when it comes to Bitcoin mining you realize there's actually very little of use that you can say.
任何告诉你有一个单一数字能确定比特币生产成本底线的人,都不理解他们所引用的这个指标,因为你根本无法这么说。
Anybody who's telling you that there's a single number that will give you the floor price of producing a Bitcoin doesn't understand the metric they're actually quoting because you can't say that.
不过,我得承认,制作这个指标的人或许有其价值——它可能有助于观察那些长达数月甚至数年的长期扩张与紧缩周期,但你绝对不可能有把握地说,比特币的生产成本是8.2万美元,而当前价格低于这个水平,这就意味着情况很糟糕。
Now it might be helpful, you know, I'll give people credit to the folks who make this metric, it may be helpful in seeing these very long term multi month, multi year sort of expansion and tightening cycles but there is no way on earth that you can say with any degree of confidence that the cost to produce a Bitcoin is $82,000 and we are below it and this means something terrible.
在比特币挖矿的世界里,这种说法根本不存在。
It just, it doesn't exist in the world of Bitcoin mining.
而且更进一步,我有时看到有人贴出图表,展示不同国家的生产成本,仿佛每个国家就只有一个统一的数字似的。
And even more, I've seen sometimes people post up a chart showing that, you know, the cost of production in these different countries as though there's like just that one country.
这是美国的成本。
This is the cost for, for The USA.
这是挪威或其他地方的成本。
This is the cost in whatever, Norway or whatever.
而且就连这个也还不够细致。
And it's just like, even that is just not granular enough.
对。
Right.
但让我插一句,老兄,就一会儿。
But let me steal, man, just for a second.
在比特币早期,也许当时这些其他用途还不存在,大多数人只是支付固定费率,这种情况有可能吗?
Could it be that maybe in the early years of Bitcoin when maybe, you know, let's say some of these other uses weren't really a thing and most people were just sort of paying a flat rate.
如果你只是假设一个平均的商业电价,而不是像购电协议(PPA)那样的价格,这个指标在早期是否曾有一定合理性?只是随着时间推移,由于现在出现了各种不同的用途、余热回收等等,它才失去了意义?还是说它从来就不合理?
And if you just kind of assumed less like an average, you know, commercial rate that somebody can get on a PPA, a purchasing, power agreement, would the metric have had some validity in those earlier years and it's just lost that over time because now like there's all these different uses and heat reuse and so on or do you think like it never really made sense?
我的意思是,最终
I mean at the end of
我们谈论的是一个去中心化网络,对吧?在比特币早期,这种指标可能更没用,原因很简单:当时人们秉持着‘一CPU一票’的理念,根本不在乎电费是多少。如果你读过一些早期参与比特币挖矿的人的分享,比如哈尔·芬尼关于比特币挖矿的实验帖子,他就提到过:‘我刚开始挖矿,挺好玩的,但后来房间变热了,风扇一直响,挺烦的,我就关掉了。’
the day we're talking about a decentralized network right you know it it would've probably even been less useful in the beginning days of Bitcoin for one simple fact which is that when people were operating under the pretense of one CPU, one vote they didn't care what their electrical cost was, you know, if you read about some of the early folks participating in Bitcoin mining and you read Hal Finney's post experimenting with Bitcoin mining, there's a post where he goes, okay I was mining some Bitcoin, it was fun, and then my room got hot, it was kind of annoying, hear the fan running all the time, and I turned it off.
这些人根本没考虑过商业模式,他们压根没想过这个问题,要很多很多年之后,人们才真正开始有这种意识。
These guys were not thinking about business models, know, they were not thinking and it would be many, many, many years until people were really in that mindset.
你去问那些早期挖比特币的人,很多人告诉我,他们震惊地发现自己电费账单高达五十万甚至一百万美元,因为他们以为只要堆上一堆S9矿机就行了,根本不知道自己的电价是多少。
You talk to folks that were Bitcoin mining in earlier days and a lot of folks, I've heard stories of guys who were shocked to find themselves getting half $1,000,000, million dollar electrical bills because they thought they were just gonna set up you know walls of S9s and didn't even know what their electrical rate was.
因此,这个行业在过去三到五年内的成熟度是呈爆炸式增长的。
So the maturation in the industry is something that has absolutely skyrocketed in the last three to five years.
如果要思考这些指标在早期是否适用,我认为当时参与这件事的人群和现在完全是两回事。
To think about if these metrics would work in the early days, I think it's very much a different cohort of people who are even doing this kind of stuff.
是的,所以
Yeah, so
这根本就说不通。
it just doesn't really make sense I guess.
我们现在来谈谈你的焦点论文,你有一个关于亨利·福特的水晶宫的非常有趣的章节,提到他为了使其可行而标准化了哪些东西,你能解释一下吗?
Let's go forward now, into your spotlight paper, you had a really interesting section around Henry Ford's Crystal Palace and you were talking a little bit about what he had to standardize to make that workable so can you just explain a bit about that?
我觉得这对听众会很有趣。
Think it would be interesting for listeners.
当然,我们可以做一个非常清晰的类比:看看二十世纪工业革命期间发生的事情。工业革命显然是一场生产能力的革命,我们通常从能源消耗和生产的角度来思考它——这个核心论点认为,能源就是人类的繁荣。亨利·福特在高地公园拥有一个占地130英亩的厂区,他在这里建起了流水生产线。这条由福特建造的流水生产线是一个巨大的工业空间,一个仓库,与许多此前的工业时代仓库不同,它拥有长长的窗列。我相信你们在美国一定见过类似建筑,当时这并不常见,但这些长长的窗列能让工厂里的工人真正享受到阳光,因此这座建筑被昵称为“水晶宫”。
Sure so we draw this really clean comparison where you look at what was happening in the twentieth century through the Industrial Revolution and the Industrial Revolution was this revolution obviously in productive capability and we think about it in terms of energy consumption and production, this core thesis, this idea that energy is human flourishing and Henry Ford had this Highland Park campus, it was a 130 acre campus that they built their moving assembly line and the moving assembly line that Henry Ford built was this enormous sort of industrial space, this warehouse space that unlike a lot of like you know previous industrial era warehouses had these long rows of windows and I'm sure you've seen things like this in The US, it was not that common at the time but these long rows of windows would allow folks working inside the factory to actually get sunlight and so this building was nicknamed the Crystal Palace.
那它到底是什么?
So what was it?
如果从节点的角度来看,它是Model T生产的核心节点。
It was the focal point if you think of it in terms of nodes it was the node for where production happened for the Model T.
为了让这个节点持续运转,亨利·福特有一个非常明确的目标:从原材料到成品实现连续不断的生产。他拥有一种工具——流水生产线,可以实现这一目标,但他必须严格控制进入这个节点的输入。因此,他必须建造能源生产设施,建设发电厂。
What it took to make that node operate continuously and Henry Ford had a very specific goal that he wanted which was this idea of continuous nonstop production from a raw material into a finished product and he had this tool, the moving assembly line that was going to allow him to do it but he had to really control the inputs coming into that node so he had to go and build energy producing assets, he had to build power plants.
为了给这些电厂供电,他需要煤炭,于是他收购了煤矿;为了大规模生产这些车辆,他还购买了森林,收购了数十万英亩的林地。
To power them he had to have coal so he went and bought mines to go and produce these vehicles at scale he had to go buy forests so he's producing hundreds of thousands of acres or buying hundreds of thousands of acres of forests.
他必须管理所有这些供应链,将各种原材料源源不断地运送到密歇根州高地公园,以供给这条流水生产线——这座“水晶宫”,他的目标是实现不间断的连续生产。
He's having to manage all these supply chains and he's having to draw all these raw resources to Highland Park, Michigan so that he can feed this moving assembly line, this Crystal Palace, and his goal was continuous nonstop process.
因此,他做了类似标准化工资这样的事情,因为你显然需要工人,对吧?
So he does things like he standardizes the wage because you have to have workers obviously, right?
他试图掌控一切,以至于根本不需要仓储,只是不停地运转。
And he's really trying to control everything to the point that he doesn't even have to warehouse he's just going going going going.
那么,这和我们今天所做的事情有什么关联呢?
Now how does this tie into what we do today right?
他的理想——这种连续生产的理念,在他那个时代根本无法实现,因为当时的技术还不够成熟,对吧?如果你了解二十世纪的汽车制造商,比如丰田的生产模式,就会发现人们一直在努力优化这种连续生产方法,比如你听说过的准时制制造。
His aspiration, this idea of continuous production, he couldn't get it in his era, the technology just wasn't there at the time, right, and if you hear about car manufacturers in the twentieth century, you talk about, you know, particularly like the Toyota productions and things like this is sort of like continuous production methodology like people have continued to try to optimize for it, right, the just in time manufacturing that you've heard of.
那么在当今世界,像比特币这样的东西又意味着什么?
What do we have in the world of now loads like Bitcoin?
我们实际上有可能实现连续不间断生产的理念,因为我们的‘水晶宫’不再是带有玻璃墙的巨大仓库,而是存在于小小的芯片中,存在于硅芯片里。这些硅芯片与亨利·福特庞大的厂区截然不同,可以部署在地球上的任何地方。
We actually have a potential to achieve the idea of continuous non stop production because our crystal palaces instead of being giant warehouses with glass walls they live in little chips, they live in silicon chips, and these silicon chips totally unlike Henry Ford's giant campus can be put anywhere on earth.
因此,为这些‘水晶宫’供电的供应链需求被大幅缩减,现在你只需在地球上的任何地方,靠近能源源头的地方,部署一台比特币矿机,就有机会实现无浪费的连续生产。
So you have drastically shrunk the supply chain requirements to power these crystal palaces and you now have by dropping a Bitcoin mining machine anywhere on earth close to a source of energy, the opportunity to actually execute continuous production without waste.
当我开启比特币矿机时,它就在进行哈希运算,我可以因为这种运算获得奖励,因为我连接了一个支付报酬的矿池;而当我因任何原因关闭电源时,根本不需要仓储,也不会出现‘天啊,矿机里积压了太多哈希值,得赶紧处理,不然就过期了’这种情况。
When I turn the Bitcoin mining machine on, it is hashing, I can be rewarded for that hashing because I connect to a pool that pays me and when I turn the energy off for whatever reason it might be, there's no warehousing, there's no like backup of hashes like, oh crap there's too many hashes in the machine like we've got to do something with them they're going go stale.
这是一个瞬时的过程,一旦关闭,我就不再产生哈希值,也就不再获得报酬,因为我生产的是某种商品。
It's an instantaneous process and so when it turns off I'm no longer producing hashes and I'm no longer being paid for it because I'm producing a commodity.
因此,我们用‘水晶宫’这一术语来强调相似之处,即它们都希望实现连续生产与持续输入;同时说明,二十一世纪像比特币和有望成为高性能计算(HPC)这类负载,未来可能具有更强的位置独立性。
So we use that language of the Crystal Palace as a way to frame what's similar which is that they want to have continuous production with these continuous inputs but to show why what's happening in the twenty first century with these kinds of loads like Bitcoin and hopefully AI, you know, HPC loads can be a little more location invariant in the future.
这截然不同,因为我们实际上正在实现亨利·福特的目标。
It's radically different because we're actually achieving the goals of Henry Ford.
是的。
Yeah.
这是一个非常有趣的想法。
It's a really fascinating idea.
带我们深入谈谈‘将兆瓦货币化’这一概念,以及你提到的一些具体例子。
Take us to this idea of monetizing the megawatt and some of the different examples you have.
谈谈‘将兆瓦货币化’这一概念,特别是它与比特币挖矿的相关性。
Talk through this concept of monetizing the megawatt, you know, into the Bitcoin mining relevance.
当然。
Sure.
当我们思考如何将兆瓦货币化时,大多数人首先想到的是比特币挖矿,他们会说:好吧,你得先买最高效的矿机,然后去寻找廉价电力,接着插电、谈判、达成协议,确定你的运营成本,之后就只能坐等祈祷——希望算力难度不要太高,机器也不要过时。但在我们看来,这种理解对当今比特币矿工的实际运作方式太过肤浅了。这并不是因为人们愚蠢或糟糕,而是因为他们对矿工如何运营了解得太少,根本不知道有多少人正在深入思考如何优化他们的运营。
So when we think about monetizing the megawatt, most people think about Bitcoin mining and they say, Okay, well you have to buy, they start from the machine, right, you got to buy the most efficient machine and then you got to go hunting for electricity and you have to go plug in and maybe negotiate and strike a deal, figure out what you're going to set your operating cost on and then you just kind of sit there and pray and hope that the difficulty doesn't get too hard and that your machines don't become obsolete and in our view this is a very thin understanding or perspective on the way that Bitcoin miners are actually operating in the world and it's not because people are dumb or bad it's because they just don't know enough Bitcoin miners to understand how much folks are thinking about how to operate their operations.
所以我们思考这个问题的方式,以及我们在论文中阐述的方式,是一种平衡的等式,对吧?等式的一边是你通过挖矿产生的收入,是的,这是一种产生收入的方式。
So the way that we think about it and the way that we share it in the paper is sort of this balanced equation, right, and on one side of the equation you have the revenue that you generate from hashing and yeah that's one way to generate revenue.
那么,人们还有哪些其他方式来产生收入呢?
Okay well what are other ways that people are generating revenue?
他们还通过我们所说的热能信用来产生收入。
Well they're also generating revenue through what we call a heat credit right.
这可以是这样的想法:我利用多余的热量,通过乙二醇管道来融化我车道上的积雪,或者为我的家供暖。
This could be the idea of I'm going to use the excess heat to push into a glycolated line that's going to melt snow off my driveway or it's going to heat my home.
这怎么算是信用呢?
How is that a credit?
这是因为我不只是承担了丙烷、天然气或电力的沉没成本,而是通过使用这些热量,实际上减少了其他方面的账单。
Well it's a credit because I'm not just having a sunk cost of propane or natural gas or electricity I'm actually reducing a bill somewhere else by using this heat.
这对我来说是一种公用事业。
It's a utility to me.
我们还引入了负载信用这个概念,这是一种你可以通过它来产生收入的方式。一个负载信用的简单例子是:我在日前市场买入电力,以锁定价格。比如今天,我会为明天下午4点到5点购买几兆瓦的电力,以获得一个优惠价格;但如果明天到来时,这个价格飙升,我可以把这份负载卖回市场,从中赚取价差,这就是最简单的例子。
And then we add this idea as well of a load credit as something that you can generate revenue by so there's really an example of a load credit would be something like I'm buying in the day ahead markets when I want an assurance of a price so today it's you know I'm going to buy you know a couple of hours of megawatts for 4PM, 5PM tomorrow and I'm going to get a good price on them but if tomorrow comes and that price is way way higher, I can actually sell that, that load back into the market and I can make money on the spread and that's kind of the simplest example of it.
在ERCOT地区,有各种各样的复杂融资方式、高级编程操作,你能够获得某些类型的补贴、参与市场的不同竞价方式以及各种程序化操作。
There's all kinds of stuff, very fancy financing, very fancy programming that's happening in ERCOT where you're getting certain kinds of rebates and certain kinds of bidding into the markets and certain kinds of programming.
这对于为所运营电网提供大量价格稳定性支持的人来说,是一个极其广阔的机会。
This is a really expansive opportunity for folks who are providing a lot of like pricing grid stability to the grids that they operate on.
然而,这些都是产生收入的方式。
However, these are all ways to generate revenue.
在比特币挖矿业务中,并非只有一种收入来源:你当然可以通过算力获得收入,还有热能信用、负载信用。如果你从这个角度思考,再反推运行这些操作所需的成本——主要成本是电力成本、运营成本以及运维支出,比如保持过滤器正常、维持系统运行、更换需要更换的软管等——你就能理解这些业务的实际盈利能力。当你观察这些模式时,它们彼此差异很大,因为它们旨在优化不同的目标。
There's not just one way you generate revenue in a Bitcoin mining operation, you generate revenue from the hash rate, of course, the heat credit, the load credit and if you think about it in that way and then you back out what it takes to run these operations, you know, the primary cost being the electrical cost, the operational cost, and then the opex, whatever it costs to, you know, keep your filters up, keep your systems running, replace a hose when it needs to be replaced, you wind up with an understanding of what the profitability of these businesses can actually be and when you look at the shapes of them they're very different from each other, they're very different because they're trying to optimize for different things.
是的,很有趣。
Yeah, interesting.
所以,让我稍微复述一下,过去对比特币挖矿的理解,或者说更天真的解读,就是:买矿机,找最便宜的电价,插上电,然后听天由命,等待网络难度的变化。
So as I just playing it back a little bit, let's say the older understanding of Bitcoin mining, or let's say the more naive interpretation is just like, get the mining rigs, find the cheapest rate for power and, you know, plug it in and sort of hope for the best with network difficulty.
当然,现在也有更专业化的形式,但那曾经是一种典型模式。
And of course there are more professionalized forms of that, but that was kind of a model let's say.
而我们现在讨论的,则更像是:等等,让我们拓展一下可能性,考虑不同的收入形式。
And then what we're talking about now is more like, well, hang on, let's expand out our possibilities and consider different forms of revenue.
其中一些显然是比特币挖矿,也就是哈希率。
Some of that will obviously be Bitcoin mining, you know, hash rate.
我们会收到比特币,然后在市场上出售,或者做任何需要的事情来支付开支。
We get paid our Bitcoin and obviously sell that in the market or whatever, whatever we need to do to pay the expenses.
但还有这种热能补贴。
But there's also this heat credit.
还有灵活负荷或削减的概念。
There's also this concept of flexible load or this idea of curtailment.
因此,这些是我们作为比特币矿工获取收入的其他方式。
And so these are other ways in which we can get revenue as a Bitcoin miner.
所以,是的,我想这就是我对这个的理解。
And so, yeah, I guess that that's probably how I'm reading that.
你想不想我们详细聊聊一些典型的例子?
Do want to just talk us through some of the notable examples?
当然,很乐意。
Yeah, happily.
我很乐意从一个可能是最大误解的例子开始谈起。在那种天真的观点下,人们认为你必须规模庞大,必须购买最昂贵的设备,必须追求最高效率和最激进的策略,这导致市场中出现了一种误解:如果这种观点成立,那么所有大型矿场都会吞噬整个市场,因为他们能以最优惠的价格购买最多的机器、最新的设备,并获得最便宜的电力。
And I'm, I'm happy to actually start with one that was probably the largest misconception, so under this naive view of you have to be big, you have to go and buy the most expensive machine, you have to be the most efficient and the most aggressive, it led to this misconception in the, in the marketplace where people assumed that if that was true, well all of the mega miners are just going to eat the world because they can buy the most machines at the best rate and they can buy the newest machines and they can go get the cheapest electricity.
人们假设:哦,大型矿场会垄断整个比特币世界,因为他们拥有规模经济带来的不公平优势。
The assumption was that, Oh, the mega miners are going to consume the Bitcoin universe and look at that, they have some unfair advantage in their economy of scale.
简短的回答是,这根本不对,因为比特币矿场的单位经济效益取决于矿场自身的单位经济效益,而不是其规模大小。
The short answer is that that's simply not true because the unit economics of a Bitcoin mine are contingent on the unit economics of the Bitcoin mine, not the scale of the Bitcoin mine.
当你观察一些实例时,以大型矿场为例,他们如今已经能够接触到所有高端金融工具。当你进一步叠加——这或许是个不太完美的起点,因为它很快就会变得极其复杂——这些比特币矿企持有的巨额比特币储备(数万枚比特币)时,他们现在能够在 treasury(资金库)和资产生产两个层面玩极其高级的金融游戏。他们试图构建一种良性循环:他们生产的资产(比特币)不仅在生产环节考虑单位经济效益(如电费、运营成本等),更在获得比特币后,将其作为 treasury 资产,重新在金融体系中实现货币化。
When you look at examples, and take the mega mining example, they are at the point now where they have access to all of the tools of high finance and when you layer on, and this is maybe a rough example to start with because it very quickly becomes the most complicated, when you layer on the treasuries that these Bitcoin mining companies are holding, you know tens of thousands of Bitcoin, they are now able to play very very advanced financial games not just in the treasury but in the production of the asset which feeds into the treasury so they try to create this kind of beneficial loop where the asset that they are producing they are able to not just produce it in reference to the unit economics of production which is you know the electricity cost, the OpEx, yada yada, but then they think about the full life cycle of that as, wait a second, once we actually have the Bitcoin, now in a treasury format, we start to remonetize that in the financial system.
是的。
Yeah.
没错,他们实际上是在进行一种转化,这是一种令人惊叹且复杂的运作机制。
Exactly, they're sort of like transmuting it, incredible and complex mechanism that they're operating under.
话虽如此,什么才是对这种大型矿场运营模式更具竞争力的替代方式呢?
That being said, what is more competitive with this kind of mega miner way of operating?
我们论文中提到的一个最精彩的例子就是无电网计算。很多人听说过无电网计算,这听起来非常令人兴奋,因为这些矿工深入非洲各地,寻找那些利用率低下的大型发电设施,然后直接部署比特币矿机,瞬间让这些发电设施的电力产出大幅提升并开始盈利。但人们往往忽视了一点,因为他们仍固守着‘越大越好’的旧思维模式,其实这种无电网模式恰恰是比特币挖矿最稳健的方式之一——他们究竟做了什么?
Well one of the most beautiful examples of this that we feature in the paper is the example of gridless compute and loads of people have heard about gridless compute and it has this kind of gut, know, it's very exciting cause these guys are out, out in the bush and they're cruising all over Africa and they're finding these big generation assets that are underutilized and they go out and they drop a bitcoin mine on it and all of a sudden these generation assets producing way more electricity and they're making money but what people fail to grasp because they're kind of thinking under this old model of bigger is better is that that model, the gridless model is one of the most robust ways of mining Bitcoin because what do they do?
他们做了一件非常有趣的事情。
They do something very very interesting.
当他们发现一个这样的未充分利用的资源时,比如一个额定五兆瓦但只产出一兆瓦的水电站,他们不会去找设施的拥有者说:‘我们签个合同吧,我每千瓦时付你两美分或五美分。’
When they find one of these underutilized resources and say it's a five MW hydro facility that is only producing one MW, They go to the individual who owns and operates this facility and they don't say, Let's sign a deal where I'm going to pay you 2¢ per kilowatt or 5¢ per kilowatt.
他们直接找到运营这个设施的人,问:‘你想白拿钱吗?’
They sign, they show up and they find the person running the facility and they say, Would you like free money?
对方说:‘是的,我想我愿意。’他们就说:‘太好了,我们来这么办。’
And they say, Yes, I think I would, and they go, Great, here's what we can do.
无论是运行一兆瓦还是四兆瓦,水电的边际成本增加都微乎其微,几乎可以忽略不计。
The increased marginal cost in producing on hydro whether you're running a one MW or four or whatever your capacity is, is tiny, it's nothing.
你知道,你只需要给轴承多买点润滑油,但这是五十年前的老技术了,又不是要额外买煤来烧你的发电厂。
You know you buy more grease for the bearings but this is fifty-one 100 year old technology, this is not stuff that I have to go buy more coal to run my power plant.
生产一兆瓦和四兆瓦之间的边际成本增加几乎为零。
The increased marginal cost on producing one versus four MW is nothing.
无电网模式的人来了,说:‘我们把剩下的全部拿走,不管你们有多少产能,只要能给,我们都收。我们不会跟镇上想买电的人竞争,因为他们通常得花高价买电,每千瓦时三四十美分。而我们会免费拿走这些多余电力,然后给你们一部分利润。’
Gridless comes and they say, Hey, we'll take the rest of that, whatever your capacity is, whatever you can give us, and we're not going to compete with any people in town who want to buy the energy and they can't because the people in town who are buying the energy are typically buying it at unfortunately high rates, you know thirty-forty cents a kilowatt hour, what we will do is we'll take that excess energy for free and we will give you a profit share.
这对模型有什么影响?
Now what does that do for the model?
它对模型的作用是,你拥有的是一种纯粹的浪费。
What it does for the model is that you have something that is just pure waste.
纯粹是浪费了生产更多电力的机会成本。
Purely wasted opportunity cost which is the ability to produce additional electricity.
然后,Gridless 现在以零投入成本将所有这些过剩能源变现。
And then you have Gridless who now is monetizing all that excess with an input cost of zero.
无论你关注哪家上市公司,他们都永远无法将投入成本降到零。
It doesn't matter what pubco you're looking at, they are never going to get their input costs to zero.
是的,我可以举个很好的例子
Yeah, I can have great example
如果从技术分析和图表分析人员的角度看,电网列表的生产成本完全是错的,对吧?
of where cost of production, if you're looking at the TA and chart analysts guys, it's totally wrong for grid list, right?
因为他们的生产成本是什么?
Because what is their cost of production?
我的意思是,这低得离谱。
I mean, it's ridiculously low.
不过我要说明一下,我采访过Gridless的CTO菲利普·沃尔顿。
Now to be clear, I've done an interview with, Philip Walton, the CTO of grid list.
我想那是在十月的卢加诺计划,但他提到了一件事。
I think that was from, October in Lugano Plano but, he was mentioning one thing.
他说,这很难做到。
He's like, look, it's hard to do that.
对吧?
Right?
并不是每个人都有能力和Gridless团队那样做。
Not everybody has the skill set to do what he and the team at Gridless are doing.
没错。
Exactly.
对吧?
Right?
所以这确实是,是的,它
So that's kind of, yes, it's
成本非常低,但并不是每个人都能做到。
very low cost, but not everybody can do it.
100% 的自主性,我认为,从我们的角度来看,这里的微妙之处才真正变得有趣——因为那些愿意付出努力去完成这项极其困难工作的人,他们身处非洲各地的偏远地区,必须弄清楚:要到达这个资产、这个社区,是否需要在糟糕的道路上开两天车?他们如何建立足够稳健的系统,使其能够远程运行和监控?又该如何培训现场人员,让他们真正能够管理运营并维持系统运转?
A 100% and this, this I think is where the subtlety becomes, least from our perspective, a lot more interesting because the people who are willing to go through the work to do this very difficult stuff because they're operating in the remote bush all across Africa, they have to go figure out if it's going to be a two day drive on terrible roads to get to this asset, to get to this community, how they set things up in a robust enough way that it can actually operate remotely and be monitored remotely and then how do you train people on-site who can actually manage the operations of it and keep it moving.
这种模式非常了不起,但任何模式都不可避免地伴随着外部性。
So that model is incredible but no model comes without its own externalities.
还有其他例子,我最喜欢举的一个是:就拿我现在的住处来说,我始终能以比任何一家上市的大型比特币矿企更低的成本生产比特币。
Know there's other examples where the one I love to give is that, you know, me, at my house here where I am, I'm always going to be able to produce Bitcoin at a lower cost than every large publicly traded Bitcoin mining company in existence.
为什么会这样?
Why is that?
因为我们买房的时候,房子上已经装了太阳能板。
It's because when we bought the house, the house had solar panels on it.
这些太阳能板在第一年就覆盖了全部的电费成本。
And the solar panels, after the first year here, saw covered the full cost of electricity.
所以账单一直显示为零,到了年底他们还会给你六美元,作为你所发电量的回报,对吧?
So the bill just kept coming back zero and then of course at the end of the year they give you $6 for whatever you produced, right?
那我做了什么?
Well what did I do?
我在地下室 setup 了一个比特币矿机,夏天我把废热直接排到室外,冬天则把气流反转180度,把所有热量导入我的供暖系统。
I set up a Bitcoin miner in my basement and in the summer I just vented outside that, heat exhaust and in the winter I turn it around a 180 degrees and I pump all that heat into my HVAC system.
这在一定程度上抵消了我的天然气费用,但运行这个比特币矿机的成本是零。
It does a little offset on what my natural gas costs are but the cost to run that Bitcoin miner is zero.
它根本不花我一分钱。
It doesn't cost me anything.
为什么?
Why?
因为我家屋顶装的是太阳能板,而不是偏远地区的水电站。这套太阳能系统已经回本了,再多发点电也不会增加成本——只是阳光照耀而已,这是一种非常被动、非常简单的方式:只要我不把二十台设备全插进系统,我就不会产生电费。
Because instead of a hydro facility in the bush I have a solar, a solar array on my roof and that solar array, it's already paid off and it doesn't take more to, to produce more electricity from it, it's just the sun shining, and it's a very kind of passive, very kind dumb way where as long as I don't have, you know, 20 machines plugged into my, into my system, I don't get an electrical bill.
成本依然是零,我还在持续生产比特币,同时享受了供暖的效益。
The cost is still zero and I'm still producing Bitcoin and getting the utility of the heating.
所以,是的,这些是新的比特币挖矿方式。
So, yes these are new modes of mining Bitcoin.
是的,它们伴随着一些困难。
Yes they have difficulties associated with them.
开源挖矿工具出现了爆炸式增长,许多人正在尝试解决这些问题。
There's been this explosion in open source mining tools and folks that are trying to solve for these problems.
今天有优美简洁的消费级解决方案吗?
Are there beautiful clean consumer solutions here today?
有点吧。
Kind of.
我们有这些散热片加热器、比特币烟囱以及其他各种工具。
We have these baseboard heaters, we have these bit chimneys and all these other tools that people have.
我们是否已经完全集成到商用暖通空调系统中了?
Are we fully integrated into commercial HVAC systems?
绝对没有,我们还没达到那一步,但这个方案已经被验证可行,人们已经认识到这是运行比特币矿场的高效方式。
Absolutely not, we're not there but the case is proven out and people understand that this is a highly efficient way to actually run your Bitcoin mine.
是的。
Yeah.
所以,说到热量,正如你所说,我们现在看到的是这种零售用途的热量,这些矿机也被用作家庭取暖器之类的设备。
And so this heat while we're on the heat thing, guess we're seeing, as you said, like this, this retail use heat, these miners that are also heat home space heaters and this kind of thing.
那么,是的,你能不能也跟我们谈谈这个‘灵活负荷’的概念?我知道你那里有个来自印第安纳州兆瓦公司的例子。
Then yeah so do you want to also talk to us a bit about this concept of flexible load so I know you have an example there from megawatt in Indiana.
是的,兆瓦公司的人非常出色,他们很有趣。因为我以前在比特币挖矿行业工作时,花了一些时间去了解矿业公司如何管理负荷。他们有一群非常聪明的工程师,专门执行极其复杂的能源交易策略,每次操作都是数百兆瓦级别的规模。如果你特别熟悉ERCOT市场,抓住价格飙升或市场效率低下的时机,就能赚到很多钱。
Yeah megawatt are fantastic guys they are they're fascinating because it's sort of like I spent some time when I was working in the Bitcoin mining industry specifically getting to experience a lot of the way pubcos think about managing load and they have these brilliant, brilliant guys and gals who are essentially executing very very complex trading regimes on the asset that they have, this energy and it's hundreds of megawatts at a time and you can make a lot of money if you are particularly on ERCOT capitalizing on these certain spikes in price or inefficiencies that are happening in the market.
让我觉得有趣的是,兆瓦公司是一家私营企业,其策略是寻找规模较小的站点,大约在2到10兆瓦之间,但他们却掌握了与那些上市公司相同的技巧,只是在更小的规模上实施。
What's fascinating to me is that MEGAWatt, a privately held company whose strategy is to find these smaller sites, you know, on the order of like two to 10 MW, they have figured out the same sorts of techniques that a lot of these pubcos are doing and they're doing it on a smaller scale.
那为什么这很有趣呢?
Now why is this interesting?
这很有趣,因为他们能够管理数百兆瓦的负荷,对电网产生巨大影响,同时通过参与日前市场竞价,为自己的发电获得一定的价格稳定性——因为他们清楚自己的盈亏平衡点、设备运行效率和部署位置。
This is interesting because what they're able to do is they're able to you know steward hundreds of megawatts and create this huge influence on the grid but they are in effect bidding into day ahead markets that gives them some price stability on their production because they know their break evens, they know what machines are running the efficiencies and locations.
这还让他们有机会在实际出现价格差异时,赚取一些额外收入。
It also gives them the opportunity to generate a little bit of extra revenue when you wind up with price disparities when that day actually shows up.
所以我为明天买入,因为价格看起来特别低,但也许我认为价格会上涨。
So I buy for tomorrow and I buy because the price looks particularly low but maybe I think that the price might go up.
如果明天到来时突然发生某些情况,价格大幅上涨,我就可以通过将电力卖回电网来做套利交易,但这并不是我的主要收入来源——我的主要收入来源仍然是比特币挖矿。但我实际上能够稳定自己的业务运营。从电网运营商的角度来看,你要记住,当你接入电网时,你不仅仅是消耗兆瓦级电力,你还在监控价格机制,试图找到某种平衡。大多数人并不签订购电协议,也不尝试进行实时价格管理或参与市场竞价,而你是在与电网运营商协同运作,电网运营商的职责是保障电网正常运行,确保频率稳定,避免停电、电压过低或设备损坏。因此,你正在与这个电网实体进行一场博弈,你在财务层面提供了一种平滑功能。而比特币挖矿的独特之处在于,它与坐在办公室里交易能源期货截然不同:最坏的情况是,如果你进行了适当的对冲,而交易方向不利,你仍然可以选择实物交割。
I can make an arbitrage if tomorrow comes and all of sudden something happens and the price is substantially higher, I can make an arbitrage trade on selling that back to the grid which isn't my main source of revenue driving, my main source of revenue driving is still coming from mining Bitcoin but what I'm doing is I'm actually able to smooth out my business operations and from the perspective of the grid operator because you have to remember if grid connected it's not just you sucking up megawatts it is you monitoring a pricing mechanism trying to figure out some sort of, most people are not doing PPAs or trying to do kind of live price management or bidding into the markets, it's you in conjunction with the grid operator, the grid operator who is managing the functioning of this grid because their mandate is to the consumer to make sure that the frequency of that grid is consistent and that you're not browning anything out, blacking anything out or blowing anything up, so you're now kind of playing this game with this grid entity and you're providing a bit of a smoothing function on the financial side of things and the unique thing about Bitcoin mining that makes it different from sitting in an office and just trading energy futures radically different from trading energy futures is that the worst case scenario is that if you are properly hedged and a trade goes the wrong direction on you, you can take delivery.
你还记得新冠疫情期间,当油价跌至负值时,人人都在购买油轮,因为他们发现这些其实都是可实物交割的合约,于是他们惊呼:‘天哪,我得想办法处理这些刚买下的油罐车了。’
You know you remember during Covid when everybody was buying tankers of oil because price went negative and then they figured out that these were all physically deliverable options and they were like Oh crap, I need to figure out what to do with these train cars of oil that I just purchased.
但那些进行了适当对冲并具备良好财务管理的比特币矿工不会遇到这个问题,因为他们参与电网价格的金融交易时,始终有一个备选方案——可以直接接收电力实物。
Bitcoin miners that are properly hedged and properly financially managed don't have this issue because if they are participating in the financial side of grid pricing, they always have the fallback which is that they can just take physical delivery of the electricity.
这些
Of the
电力可以用于挖矿,是的。
electricity and use it for mining, Yeah.
这太惊人了。
It's amazing.
他们实际上在为自己提供对冲。
They they they are providing their own hedge.
有意思。
Interesting.
对。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
然后没错。
And then yes.
我还看到一些其他有趣的例子。
Some other interesting examples I saw.
显然,上游数据是一个有趣的领域。
Obviously, upstream data is an interesting one.
你知道,我曾经和史蒂文做过播客,但对不熟悉他的听众来说,能不能简单介绍一下上游数据的情况?
You know, I've done podcasts with Steven, but for listeners who aren't familiar, give give people an overview there on what's happening with the upstream data.
对。
Yeah.
史蒂夫太棒了,我有幸见证了他这个模型随着时间不断演进。他一直坚持说的一点是:我经营一家油田服务公司。
Steve is amazing and his I've I've had the pleasure of like seeing his model just evolve and evolve over time and the one thing that, you know, he he has consistently said is that I run an oil field services company.
他一直强调这一点,但我觉得很多人并没有真正理解他这么说的原因和背后的含义,因为他们觉得:哦,史蒂夫是那个黑箱专家,是构建这些上游数据远程负载中心的人,是开发那些哈希生成器的人——这些设备一端是强大的引擎,另一端连着比特币矿场。没错,这些确实都是他做的,但从根本上说,他是一家油田服务公司的老板。那么,一家油田服务公司需要做什么呢?
There's one thing that he's always said but I think it goes over people's heads exactly why he's saying that and what that means because they think oh you know it's Steve he's the he's the black box guy, he's the guy who builds these upstream data remote load centers, he builds these hash generators which is a big engine on one end that then has a Bitcoin mine on the other, and yeah, those are all things that he builds but fundamentally he's an oil field services company and what does an oil field services company need to do?
如果你看向广袤的北方,比如在美国和
If you look out into the Great White North if you're in The U.
加
S.
拿大,看看阿尔伯塔省和萨斯喀彻温省,那里正在进行大量的石油勘探。在这些地方,人们外出勘探石油,一旦决定开发某个油田,就必须建立这些孤岛式的枢纽——如果要铺设管道,就需要这些集散中心,这就像在建一座小镇。
And Canada and you look at Alberta and you look at Saskatchewan and you look at all the oil exploration that's happening out there, you have this really robust industry where people are going out and exploring for oil and when they explore for oil and they decide that they're going to develop a particular field you have to create these islands, have to create these hubs if you're going to put a pipeline in these collection hubs and you have this thing where it's sort of like building a town.
你不知道会有多少人搬进这座小镇。
You don't know how many people are going to move to the town.
你无法确切知道那里会聚集两万、五万还是一百万人口,就像你无法确切知道会产出多少天然气一样——你只能推测,但无法明确预知。因此,当你在这些孤立站点建设能源发电设施时,必须始终按最高需求来估算。
You don't necessarily know if there's going to be 20,000 or 50,000 or a 100,000 in the same way you don't really know, you can guess but you don't know explicitly how much gas is going to be produced and because of that when you're building your energy generation that you have to put big generations at these islanded sites you have to always estimate on the high end.
你必须始终按最高需求来估算。
You have to always estimate on the high end.
这就是为什么你的电费账单中包含峰值需求费用,因为电网绝不能规模不足以满足需求。
It's why your electricity bill has like a peak demand charge because the grid is never allowed to be too small for what it is needed for.
它必须始终按照最大负载来设计。
It always has to be sized to the maximum load.
你绝不能没有足够的容量。
You're never allowed to not have enough capacity.
那么他做了什么?
So what does he do?
史蒂夫说:好吧,听好了,现在人们都在做什么?
Steve says Okay listen, what are people doing now?
当他们进行勘探并建设这些孤立站点时,必须安装这些大型发电机,因为他们根本无法预知石油开发会是什么样子。
When they're doing the exploration and they're building these islanded sites they have to put these giant generators and it's because they just don't know what the oil development is going to look like.
这些发电机可以租赁,也可以购买,但价格昂贵。
Those generators they can be rented, they can be purchased but they're expensive.
记住,你是在这个站点上安装了一个非常庞大的发动机,必须让它持续运行,而在站点开发初期,实际上并不会有多少负载落在这个发动机上。
Remember you're throwing a very large engine on this site and you have to run it and then what happens is in the early days of actually developing the site there's just not going to be a lot of load on that engine.
所以如果有一台兆瓦级的发动机,你只让它以百分之十到十五的负载运行,这台发动机根本不会运转得开心。
So if a MW engine and you're running it at ten-fifteen percent capacity it's just not a very happy engine.
它更希望在更高的温度阈值、更高的负载和更高的转速下运行。
It wants to be operating at a higher heat threshold, at a higher load, at higher RPMs.
史蒂夫利用这些由比特币支持的工具,可以这样说:听着,你可以租用这台发动机,但运行它会非常麻烦,当你提升负载时会严重受限,还会出现大量磨损问题;或者你可以来找我,你支付的发动机租金会更低,唯一的代价是我们需要安排某种比特币收益分配方案——要么我来挖比特币,要么我们按比例分成。但对你来说,你真正关心的是油气场地的开发,你甚至可能根本不在乎比特币。
What Steve can do using these tools that are backed by Bitcoin is he goes and he says, Listen, okay, you can rent this engine, it's going to be a huge pain in the backside to run, it's going to really get throttled when you're ramping up and have all these wear issues, you could do that or you could come to me and you can actually pay less for your engine rental and the only trade off is that we're going to figure out some arrangement where either I'm going to be mining the Bitcoin or we're going to do some kind of split on the Bitcoin but when it comes to you, what you care about which is developing an oil and gas site and you might not even care about the Bitcoin.
你只关心一台发电机,你只知道必须把它做得大一些。
All you care about is a generator and all you know is that you have to oversize it.
史蒂夫可以在你的开发现场安装一台Hash Gen,然后说:好吧,一开始可能我得多挖点比特币,因为发动机负载还不足;等你逐步提升产量后,我们再调低比特币挖矿的比重,但这些你根本不需要操心。
Steve can drop one of these Hash Gens on your development site and he can say Okay, maybe at the beginning I'll have to run more of the Bitcoin mining because there's not enough load on the engine and maybe as you ramp up production we'll have to dial it back but you don't even have to care about that.
我会处理所有这些问题,因为你只关心石油的生产。
I will manage that whole problem because you're only concerned about producing the oil.
你甚至不需要关心比特币。
You don't even have to be concerned about the Bitcoin.
你唯一知道的是,从长远来看,你在发电机的运营和租赁成本上能省下一大笔钱,所以相比之下,这很容易说服人。
All that you know is that you're going to save a lot of money on the operation and rental of this generation over the long term so comparatively it's an easy sell.
这很容易推销,它
It's an easy sell, it's
是个好交易。
a good deal.
太棒了。
Fantastic.
我想我们还有时间再讲一个例子。
I think we've got time for one more example.
你能谈谈吗?选一个你觉得有趣的例子,或者你有什么其他例子?
Can you just talk maybe pick one example that you think might be interesting or yeah maybe the what have you got?
乔拉,是的
Cholla, yeah
我喜欢创新
I love innovation
土地。
land.
我们还有Futurebit,也许可以聊聊Cholla这个案例。
We've also got Futurebit, yeah maybe talk about the Cholla one.
Cholla很棒,因为Cholla。
Cholla is great because they Cholla.
你知道,Cholla Petro的创始人是Gideon Powell,他一直在管理这家公司。
You know, Cholla Petro, Gideon Powell is the entrepreneur that manages that.
这是一家多代传承的油气公司,他一直在家族中掌舵;而Brad Cuddy是Troy创新实验室的负责人。我认为这是一个绝佳的收尾案例,因为它能让我们回归更大的格局——我们所做的一切都非常重要,保持对话的连贯性和开放性至关重要。当你和Brad Cuddy交谈,问他关于Cholla创新实验室的事,他会毫不含糊地说:我们的人力成本更高,运营支出也更高,但我们战略性的选址在德克萨斯州西部,能获得超低成本的电力,但这个比特币矿场的存在目的并不是为了最大化比特币收益。
It's a multi generation oil and gas company that he has been stewarding within his family and Brad Cuddy is the lead on the Troy Innovation Lab and this is one of the ones that I think is a fantastic way to end because I to root us back in the bigger picture which is that everything that we are doing it is important, it's incredibly important to keep the conversation as connected and as open as possible and when you talk to Brad Cuddy and you ask him about the Cholla Innovation Lab, he will say in no uncertain terms, We pay more for our labor, we pay more for our OpEx, we are strategically located in West Texas where we can get access to ultra low cost of power, but this Bitcoin mine does not exist to maximize the revenues that we can generate in Bitcoin.
他说,这个比特币矿场是一个测试平台,一个培养皿,一个可以邀请政界人士、企业家、技术团队前来的地方——你可以部署上游数据哈希舱,可以安装Giga舱,可以尝试新的固件、新的操作系统、新的管理系统。这就是Cholla创新实验室的真正目的,而这种模式在我们整个行业中几乎不存在。因此,他们所做的一切至关重要,因为他们控制了一个关键变量:超低成本的电力。
He says this Bitcoin mine exists as a testing base, as a petri dish, as a place where you can bring in the politicians, you can bring in the entrepreneurs, you can bring in the technology, you can put in an upstream data hash hut, you can put in a Giga hut, you can try new types of firmware, new types of operating systems, new types of management systems, that's the purpose of the Cholla Innovation Lab and this is something that doesn't really exist anywhere else in our industry and that's why it's so important what they're doing is that they have controlled for one factor which is ultra low cost of electricity.
你放眼德克萨斯州西部,那里不仅是油气生产的核心地带,还拥有大量的太阳能和风能,这些能源常常让电价降至零甚至负值。
You look out to West Texas, West Texas is where, you don't just have kind of the oil and gas world of production but you also have tons of solar and tons of wind which very often pushes electrical costs to zero or just under zero.
如果我能控制住这种超低成本的能源,我就能把这个设施打造成一个对话中心、一个社区创新枢纽。我们不再被孤立在各自的场地中,各自生产信息却无法共享或推动行业对话,而是能产出真正可信、有参考价值的信息。
If I can control for that ultra low cost of energy I can use this facility as a conversation hub, as a community innovation hub where we can instead of being sandboxed on our own sites and producing information and not really being in a position to share it or further the conversation on this industry, I can actually produce information that people know is good information.
我们是一个创新实验室,明白。
We're an innovation lab, know.
这里就是你们可以前来、并把设备送来测试的地方,你们还能与真正从事电网运营、亲自制定政策的人进行交流。
We are where you go and where you send your equipment if you want it to be tested and if you want to have conversations with the people who are actually on the grid operation side, people that are actually writing the policy.
所以,我认为这是我们应该做并持续做的事情中最美好的典范之一:创造能够产出高质量信息的空间。
So it, it I think is, one of the most beautiful examples of what we should be doing and continuing to do, which is creating spaces that we can produce the high quality information.
并不是说任何人做错了什么,你知道,如果你只是私下或公开挖矿,专心做自己的事,这并没有错;但就教育人们了解这类工具的力量,以及促进通常彼此隔绝的各方之间的协作而言,我认为没有比底特律创新实验室更令人兴奋的地方了,因为他们所做的事情。
Not to say anybody's doing anything wrong, you know, you're not doing anything wrong if you're just, you know, privately mining your Bitcoin or publicly mining your Bitcoin and minding your business, but in terms of educating people on the power of these types of tools and operating across all these kind of typically siloed parties, There's, there's no more exciting place I think than Detroit Innovation Lab because of what they're doing.
太棒了。
Fantastic.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得有太多酷炫的例子了。
Think there's just so many cool examples.
所以我强烈推荐听众们阅读这份报告,一定要分享这个播客,让更多人听到。
So I definitely recommend listeners check out this report, make sure you share this podcast so people can listen to it.
然后,在节目笔记中,我们当然会提供这篇焦点论文的链接。
Then, in the show notes, we'll obviously, we'll link the spotlight paper.
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我想,罗伯特,在我们结束之前,比特币公园还有什么 upcoming 的事情是大家应该了解的吗?
And I guess, Robert, just before we let you go, anything else coming up at Bitcoin Park that people should know about?
有一些事情即将发生。
There are some things coming up.
我们非常兴奋,因为大约一个月后,就在不到一个月的时间里,我们将在德克萨斯州奥斯汀举办名为‘比特币接管’的活动,第一天是支付证明,第二天是工作量证明,时间是3月12日和13日,星期四和星期五,地点就在奥斯汀的比特币公园。我们将邀请支付领域的一些杰出人士,分享从如何将支付基础设施从几人扩展到数十亿用户,到监管环境如何、面临哪些障碍、行业巨头之间正在展开哪些对话,一直到如何设计用户界面让普通人也能轻松使用等方方面面的内容。
So we're we're super excited because about a month from now, just under a month from now, we have what's called the Bitcoin Takeover in Austin, Texas so it's gonna be two days, proof of payments on the first day, proof of work on the second, it's gonna be the twelfth and the thirteenth, Thursday Friday and that is at Bitcoin Park Austin So, we have some brilliant folks coming in from the payment side of things that are going to be talking about everything from how do I scale payments infrastructure from, you know, one to billions of people, all the way to what does the regulatory landscape look like, what are the hurdles, what are the conversations that are happening across the large companies in the space, all the way to how do I build UX to make it accessible to people.
这是我们自己的活动,可以说是对南西由(South by Southwest)的一种‘再独立化’——因为南西由决定要走大规模路线,而我们则希望保持小规模,庆祝比特币领域中那些独立开发者所做出的创新,尤其是在支付和创业方面的成果。这个活动将在明年三月的12日和13日举行。
This is our event, it's sort of re indieification of South by Southwest which has decided that they want to go mega, you know, we want to keep things small, we want to celebrate all the indie sized building that's happening in the Bitcoin space and this sort of payments and entrepreneurial side, so that'll be the twelfth and thirteenth of next month of March.
之后,我们将开始筹备德克萨斯能源与矿业峰会,这个活动将在几个月后举行。如果你能从我激动的语气中感受到,就像底特律创新实验室一样,这个峰会将在五月举行。我们为这次峰会设定的主题是:纳什维尔在实现兆瓦的货币化,而德克萨斯则是实验室——德克萨斯。
And then after that, we're going into a ramp up for the Texas Energy and Mining Summit, which is going to be a couple months thereafter, and the Texas Energy and Mining Summit, and if you can't tell by how excited I am, by Detroit Innovation Lab, this is going to be in May, so May, the theme that we're working on for that is this idea of, you know, Nashville was monetizing the Megawatt, Texas is laboratory Texas.
我们专注的核心是,庆祝德克萨斯作为全球独一无二的地方——这里汇聚了西海岸的科技极客、西海岸在程序化领域的顶尖人才,与东海岸的金融智慧相结合。这不仅仅是来自东海岸的人,达拉斯甚至正在建立自己的证券交易所,他们正在整个技术栈的每一层上,创新如何应对德州电网中大规模、高负荷运行的挑战。
What we are focused firmly on is celebrating the heck out of Texas is the place in the world where you have West Coast tech bros, West Coast brains in the programmatic space combining with East Coast financial brilliance and this is not just folks coming from the East Coast but also you know Dallas is standing up their own stock market and they are innovating across every single level of the stack on what it means to be a large load, an operational load on a grid in the state of Texas.
这是全世界的典范,地球上没有任何其他地方能做到这一点。
It is an example for the rest of the world and it is happening nowhere else on earth.
地球上没有任何其他地方,能像德克萨斯州这样,拥有如此强大的智力资源,正在ERCOT电网系统上,真实、生动地创造出创新解决方案。这就是我们在五月峰会中要聚焦的核心。
Nowhere else on earth do you have this level of intellectual horsepower actually producing innovative solutions live in living color in the state of Texas on ERCOT so that's what we're focused on for that event on May.
太棒了。
Fantastic.
另外,从我这边来说,我自己也参加过一些这样的活动。
Well, and I'll just say from my side, I, you know, I've been to some of these events myself.
我确实会去参加奥斯汀的这场活动,各位听众千万别错过。
I will actually be at the, the Austin one and, yeah, listeners check it out.
当然,如果你喜欢这期节目,记得分享一下。
And of course, if you enjoyed this, make sure you share this episode.
罗伯特,感谢你
Robert, thank you for
加入我。
joining me.
斯蒂芬,和你交谈真是非常愉快。
Stefan, it's been a huge pleasure.
期待届时与你见面。
Can't wait to see you then.
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