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大家好，欢迎回到Stefan Livera的播客节目。
Hi, everyone, and welcome back to Stefan Livera podcast.
今天再次与我一同参与节目的是我的朋友NVK，他是CoinKite的CEO兼创始人，该公司创造了Coldcard等多款产品，同时也是一位资深的比特币玩家。
Rejoining me on the show today is my friend, NVK, known as the CEO and founder of CoinKite, the creators of the Coldcard and various other products, as well as a, longtime Bitcoiner.
NVK，欢迎回到节目。
NVK, welcome back to the show.
谢谢邀请，兄弟。
Thanks for having me, man.
确实有段时间没见了。
It's, it's been a minute.
是啊。
Yeah.
确实有一阵子了。
It's been a little while.
我知道你最近在Coldcard方面有些不错的更新，我们应该聊聊这些。
I know you've had some good updates recently on the cold cards, so we should chat a little bit about those.
我看到那个政策功能可能是个有趣的切入点。
I saw that, probably the policy thing is an interesting thing to start.
关于在单签名设备中设置支出策略这个概念，你能给我们详细讲讲吗？
So this concept of having spending policies in a single signature device, can you talk to us a little bit about this?
这具体意味着什么？
What does this mean?
它能用来做什么？
What can it be used for?
是的。
Yeah.
所以我认为，背景是这样的，我们一直试图以某种方式实施操作安全，让人们能够以最简单的方式运营他们的业务或个人比特币相关事务。
So I I think, like, the background on this is that, like, we've we've always sort of tried to do operational security in a way that, like, people can you know, the easiest possibly way of operate their businesses or their personal sort of BTC.
对吧？
Right?
但不需要我们开发相同的供应商应用，也不需要服务器进行联署，本质上就是没有对手方。
But without us producing a same vendor app, or us needing a server to cosign, or essentially, like, no counterparty.
对吧？
Right?
这是我们解决方案运作方式的重要组成部分。
Like, that that's like a big part of, like, how we like to operate, like, our our solutions.
我们如何能消除对手方？
Like, how can we remove counterparties?
对吧？
Right?
即使他们只是联署者。
Even if they're just cosigners.
我们一直在尝试这个方向。
And we sort of, like, being playing with that.
我们为冷卡上的多重签名创建了支出策略，这样他们可以拥有两把密钥。
We created spending policies for multisig on the cold card so they can have two keys.
一把是设备密钥，负责执行策略。
One key is the device key that that does policies.
然后我们基本上，由于市场需求，我们将其扩展到了单签名方案。
And then we sort of like, due to market demand, we sort of expanded that to single sig.
那么这意味着什么呢？
So so what does that mean?
这意味着你可以拥有，比如你的主冷卡或备用卡，或者带有重要权限的旅行卡。
It means that you can have, you know, your main cold card or your second one or, you know, your travel one with, you know, an important seat on it.
对吧？
Right?
但现在设备可以设置支出策略了。
But the device can take now spending policy.
也就是说，比如这台设备最多能支出多少？
So that means, you know, what's the max I can spend from this device?
它的交易频率是多少？
What is the velocity of it?
每个周期能支出多少？
So how much per period?
对吧？
Right?
比如说，每月最多1个BTC（当然是以区块时间为准），或者需要手机二次验证才能支出。
Like, say, like, you know, 1 BTC max per month, you know, in block time, of course, but, you know, 1 BTC per month, or you need two FA from a phone in order to spend.
明白吗？
You know?
这非常强大，首先它是可验证的。
And that's super powerful because one, first of all, is is provable.
对吧？
Right?
所以，你可以向坏人或其他什么人展示，这个设备是这样设置的。
So, like, you can show to, you know, the bad guy or whatever, that, like, you know, this device is set up this way.
我无法更改它。
I I cannot change it.
对吧？
Right?
那可是个大优势。
That that's a big win.
另外，比如你可以为同事、公司里的控制人员设置设备，或者出差时携带一个带有待定策略的设备。
Another thing is you can, for example, set up devices for coworkers, for controllers in the company, you know, or when you travel, you you can travel with a device that has this pending policy.
这样你就不用信任运营商能花多少钱了，对吧？
So, you you don't have to trust the operator, right, with how much he can spend.
当然，这也有其权衡之处。
Now, know, of course, has trade offs.
它存在安全限制，因为这是基于硬件安全的。
It has security limitations, because it's based on the hardware security.
目前的架构还没有向我们证明有人能提取种子之类的。
You know, the the current architecture, you know, has not been demonstrated to us that somebody can can extract a seed, for example.
但话说回来，你会把全部积蓄放在一个没有密码短语的单签账户里吗？
But, again, it's like, you know, is this for your total life savings in single sig, no passphrase?
绝对不会。
Absolutely not.
对吧？
Right?
你懂的吧？
Like you know?
但你要知道，这个系统足够稳健，完全能让你按月或按季度运营业务需求，而无需
But, you know, this is this is this is robust enough that you should be able to to operate, you know, your business needs, you know, on your monthly basis or quarterly basis without
过多担忧。
much worry.
所以这就像是你的业务热钱包，不是那种深度冷藏的生活积蓄或企业大额储备，更像是如果你想要一个热钱包配置，或者某种带有特定支出策略的冷钱包——比如限制代币转出额度或设置白名单地址这类功能。
So this is like your business warm wallet, not your deep cold life savings or business, you know, large stack, but it's more if you want a warm wallet setup or kind of cold, but with certain spending policies that allow you to, let's say, rate limit the amount of coins or white list addresses, this kind of thing.
没错。
Exactly.
白名单功能对交易员和公司财务主管来说尤为重要。
The white list was big one for traders and and company controllers.
最酷的是他们基本上设置了一批固定地址。
What's cool is that they set up, essentially, like, you know, a handful of addresses.
可惜的是大多数交易所都重复使用充值地址，你只要锁定那几个就行。
You know, unfortunately, exchanges, most of them, reuse addresses to deposit, so you just lock those in.
同时你还可以锁定几个金库地址。
And then you can also lock in a few addresses for your vaults.
这样你就能在交易所和操作设备之间自由转移资金，不必把资产留在交易所。
So you're essentially capable of going back and forth between the exchange and your operational device, you don't have to leave funds on exchange.
而且你还能从操作设备将资金转回那些你只有存款权限的深层金库。
And you're also capable of going from the operational device back to your to your deep vaults that you don't have access to, you can just deposit to.
对吧？
Right?
这可是个大胜利。
And that's a big win.
非常大的胜利。
Big, big win.
对吧？
Right?
因为很多人，尤其是交易量稍大的交易者，他们通常不会把资金从交易所转出，你知道，那样他们就得从某个深山里挖出他们的金库，才能再转回交易所。
Because a lot of people often, especially, like, you know, traders with, like, a bit more volume, they don't take the funds off of the exchange because, you know, then they have to go unearth their deep vaults from some mountain somewhere, right, in order to to go back to the exchange.
所以现在他们基本上可以在这三者之间来回转移，既轻松又安全得多。
So now they can essentially, like, go back and forth between the three, substantially easier and and safer, really.
是啊。
Yeah.
我认为这很大程度上是为了让更多人能够实现自我托管。
I think a lot of this comes down to making it feasible for more people to do self custody.
对吧？
Right?
因为我们许多人都知道，在这个领域有很多托管使用的情况。
Because as many of us know in this space, there's a lot of custodial use.
对吧？
Right?
当然，我们试图诚实地面对这一点，但同时确实如此。
And, of course, we're trying to be honest about that, but at the same time Yeah.
绝对如此。
Absolutely.
希望更多人能自主托管。
Want more people to self custody.
显然，你们正在为此开发工具。
Obviously, you're building tools for that.
显然，我在鼓励人们尽可能自主托管。
Obviously, I'm encouraging people to self custody where they can.
我很想听听你对此的看法。
I'm curious to get your perspective on this.
为什么这么多公司不愿意自主托管？
Why is it that so many companies don't want a self custody?
你认为这是技术认知的问题吗？
Do you think it is a technical knowledge thing?
是法律和监管障碍的问题吗？
Is it legal and regulatory hurdle thing?
还是对自主托管缺乏信心或适应度的问题？
Is it just kind of confidence or comfort with self custody?
在你看来，为什么这么多人选择这类方案？还是仅仅因为便利性？
Why in your mind are there a lot of people going for these kind or is it just like the convenience factor?
就像，真的就这么简单吗？
Like, is that just is it as simple as that?
要知道，这里存在许多不同的用户画像。
You know, like, there's many different profiles here.
对吧？
Right?
所以，我觉得对个人来说，这相当合理，而且人们确实会这么做。
So, like, I I think for, individuals, it's fairly reasonable, and people do it.
我认为，对个人而言，我们很少会用到托管人。
I think, you know, for individuals, we see way less use of custodians.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得挑战在于当你有一个多人参与的公司时。
I think the challenge is when you have a a multi multi people company.
对吧？
Right?
所以，再次强调，问题在于如何在一个小型组织中实际部署控制规则？
So, know, again, it's like how how do you how do you practically deploy controlling rules among a small organization?
对吧？
Right?
假设你有一家中型企业，年收入在100亿到1000亿美元之间，可能10%到20%的收入来自比特币。
Let's say you have a a mid sized business, you know, you're doing your your 10 to a $100,000,000,000 a year in revenue, you know, maybe, like, you know, you're you're making, like, you know, 10 to 20% of your revenue in BTC.
现在你面临的问题是，好吧。
Now the the problem for you is, like, okay.
很好。
Great.
所以，我有我的会计、财务总监，还有能处理电汇等事务的办公室人员。
So, like, you know, I have my my my accountant, I have my controller, you know, the people that can do wire transfers and stuff, that that part of the office.
对吧？
Right?
我怎样才能让他们收发比特币，同时避免被盗风险或遭遇诈骗抢劫？
How can I let them send and receive BTC without being at risk of them stealing it or them just being conned and robbed?
对吧？
Right?
我认为这是企业自主托管面临的最大实际问题之一，而我们的一些功能可以解决大部分这类问题。
And I think that that's the one of the biggest practical issues of businesses doing self custody, and I think we solve a lot of that with some of our features.
我认为下一个问题还涉及会计和税务方面。
I think the next part is also, like, accounting and tax.
对吧？
Right?
在大多数国家，尤其是西方国家，比特币的税务负担相当复杂。
So the the tax burden on BTC is complicated in most countries, most western countries.
你得用加权平均成本法来计算比特币的资本利得，因为它不被视为法定货币。
You have to, you know, you essentially have to run a weighted average cost for BTC on how you calculate your cap gains because it's not, like, considered currency.
还有
And there
也没有任何宽限。
is no demeanor either.
对吧？
Right?
比如，当你从会计系统——抱歉，是从结算系统发送比特币时。
So, you know, essentially, like, time you, you know, you for example, you send money from your accounting so from your checkout system so b t BTC from your accounting system sorry.
从你的结算系统——就像购物车到金库那样——你需要确保这被明确定义为账户内交易，这样就不会被征税。
From your checking system, which is like your your shopping cart to your vault, you know, you need to, for example, make sure that that is very defined as just an intra account transaction so you don't get taxed on that.
但每次卖出比特币时，你都必须计算与所有...对吧。
But then every time you sell BTC, you have to calculate that versus all your Right.
你的购物车变成成本基础然后...好吧。
Your shopping cart into basis and going, okay.
我是什么时候获得这枚币的？
When did I acquire this coin?
当...
When is
我卖出或花掉它时的价格？
the price I sold or spent it?
对。
Yes.
差额是多少？
What's the difference?
资本利得有多少？
What's the capital gains on that?
没错。
Exactly.
所有这些复杂情况。
All this kind of complication.
我想另一个因素可能是会计软件。
And maybe, I guess, the other factor there is maybe the accounting software.
目前市面上确实存在一些会计软件，人们可以下载CSV文件并导入这些软件中使用。
Now, yes, there is some accounting software in the space where people are kind of, like, downloading a CSV and importing it into the accounting software.
但我想你指的是实际操作中仍然存在一些困难。
But I guess what you're talking about there is there's still some operational difficulty with actually doing that.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
所以这并不简单。
So it's not it's not simple.
坦白说，这些会计软件仍然很糟糕。
The accounting software is still, like, you know, to be blunt shit.
比如QuickBooks Online虽然支持比特币，但一旦开启外汇支持功能就无法回退。
You know, even QuickBooks Online supports Bitcoin, but, like, they're they're once you turn on Forex support on QuickBooks Online, you can't really go back.
你无法关闭这个功能。
So you can't turn it off.
这会导致账目混乱，现在你不得不雇佣那些习惯使用QuickBooks多币种版本的簿记员，这大大缩小了可用人才库。
It's like becomes messy accounting, and now you have to have bookkeepers that are used to the multi four x version of QuickBooks, for example, which reduces the pool of people available to work, you know, like, substantially.
你需要会计人员适应这种系统。
You know, you need your accountants to be used to it.
事情没那么简单，所以确实会让工作变得更困难。
It's not it's not that simple, So, you know, it does make it harder.
另外还有一个问题是，大多数中型及稍大规模的企业都使用高度定制化的会计软件。
And and another part too is that, like, most mid sized to slightly bigger businesses have very custom accounting software too.
你知道，他们可能会用QuickBooks、Xero这类会计软件来处理财年末的账目，抱歉，我一时想不起那个词了。
You know, they may use QuickBooks or or Xero or some accounting software like that for the the final sort of, you know, fiscal year, you know sorry, the word just skipped me.
总之，他们可能...他们的财务系统可能会用这类软件，但通常购物车和收款系统都是高度定制化的。
But anyways, they they, you know, they they they might the the the their financials might be using some of that software, but they are normally, the shopping carts and all the collection systems are very custom.
所以会计系统里有很多'粘合代码'。
So, anyways, there's a lot of glue in accounting.
对吧？
Right?
企业自建软件或至少开发自己的'粘合代码'来满足特定需求是很常见的。
It's very common for businesses to build their own software or at least their own glue to support their own specific needs.
确实很棘手，但我觉得我们正在取得进展。
And, yeah, it's just tricky, but, like, I think we're getting there.
你看，Block公司就在支持这方面业务，他们服务很多小企业。
Like, you know, Block is supporting it, and they support a lot of small businesses.
所以应该会容易些。
So that should be easier.
比如ZapRite这类工具就让操作变简单了。
Tools like like ZapRite as an example to make it easy.
ZapRite很棒。
ZapRite is great.
现在很多人用它来收款。
That's quite popular for people now to take payment
他们支持比特币支付吗？
Do they do Bitcoin whack?
我不知道。
I don't know.
加权平均值？
Weighted average?
我不知道。
I don't know.
是的。
Yeah.
我不确定我是否
I don't know if I
不知道
don't know
他们有那个功能。
if they have that.
可能更像是CSV文件下载的方式。
It might just be more like a CSV download thing.
对。
Yeah.
这很棒。
It's great.
他们的购物车功能很出色。
Their shopping cart is great.
比如我们确实在bitcointreasuries.net上使用它。
We do use it for bitcointreasuries.net, for example.
而且，你知道，我我认为工具会发展到那个程度。
And, you know, I I think the tools are gonna get there.
这需要时间。
It takes time.
对吧？
Right?
但我认为我们都会达到目标。
But I think we will all get there.
而且，你知道，希望我们能迎来
And, you know, hopefully, we leave
一个不再有税收的日子。
it a day where there's no taxes anymore.
这是我们已经...哦，不。
This is We've been oh, no.
当然。
Of course.
嘿。
Hey.
我们...我们在这里是反对税收的，但你知道，这就是我们当今所处的世界。
We're we're we're, you know, against taxes here, but, you know, that's the world we're in today.
但我想关于公司要讨论的另一点是，我们刚才谈到的很多都只是处理，比如说，交易性的事务。
But I guess the other point to get into on companies is what we were talking about there was a lot of just kinda dealing with, let's say, the transactional side of things.
但对于那些单纯囤币的，你知道，就像纯粹做资金管理的公司来说呢？
But what about just for those hodling, you know, just like literally treasury companies who just have a treasury?
对吧？
Right?
他们没做多少频繁的进出交易。
They're not doing that many, like, in and out transactions.
他们基本上，你知道的，主要就是在持币观望。
They're just, you know, mostly mostly just hodling.
为什么那些人至少不自己做托管呢？
Why aren't those guys at least doing self custody?
是不是又是因为舒适区因素、非技术背景、不懂技术，或者监管原因？
Is it just because of, again, comfort factor, nontechnical, nontech savvy, regulatory?
你对此有什么看法？
What do you see there?
说到证券，对吧，本质上这都是自保行为。
When it comes to securities, right, like, there is essentially, it's all CYA.
对吧？
Right?
就是，保护自己的利益。
Like, cover your ass.
就像，没错。
Like Right.
你必须基本上遵循监管机构认可的最佳实践。
You have you have to essentially follow best practices accepted by the regulators.
对吧？
Right?
当你拥有一个新空间时，大家都会有点谨慎尝试不同的事情，因为可能会惹上大麻烦。
And when you have a new space, everybody's a little coy to try to do anything different because you can get in some serious trouble.
对吧？
Right?
所以他们花些时间是完全可以理解的。
So it's understandable that they're sort of like they're taking their time.
现在有几条规则，比如，作为证券公司，不使用合格托管人是非常困难的。
Now there is a few rules, for example, you know, like, it's very difficult for you as a securities company to to not use, say, a qualified custodian, for example.
对吧？
Right?
对。
Right.
因此这限制了你可以使用的场所和解决方案范围。
And so that reduces the pool of places and solutions you can use.
对吧？
Right?
比如，如果你想内部操作，就会变得很棘手。
Like, if you're gonna do it internally, it gets tricky.
对吧？
Right?
比如，你必须做很多事，还必须拥有技术和整个技术栈。
Like, you have to you have to do a lot of things, and you also have to own the technology, the stack.
对吧？
Right?
大多数公司都不愿意这么做。
And most companies don't wanna do that.
所以我认为我们正在取得进展。
So I think we're getting there.
比如说，像Anchor Watch这样的公司，它们将成为这类企业非常实用的解决方案。
I think, for example, companies like Anchor Watch, you know, they're gonna be a very well used solutions for these sorts of companies.
没错。
Right.
因为这样他们就能获得保险和某种形式的小额脚本，正是如此。
Because then they can have insurance and some form of, you know, mini scripts Exactly.
风格，你知道的，这些东西。
Style, know, stuff.
如果他们成为合格的托管方并且有保险，那就是双赢局面。
If they become a qualified custodian and they have insurance, like, you know, like, it's a double whammy there.
对吧？
Right?
就像，你们非常出色。
Like, you're you're very good.
但其实连保险都不是必须的。
But even the insurance isn't necessary.
你们只需要一个非常棒的技术方案，比如他们拥有的多签衰减机制和小额脚本功能。
You just need, like, a very good technical solution, which they have, right, to the decaying multisig thing and the mini script stuff that they have.
再加上作为合格托管方，这就足够了。
Plus being a qualified custodian, that that suffices.
对吧？
Right?
除此之外，你可能会发现有些客户愿意支付保险费，这样能多获得一点保障。
And then on top of that, you might find customers that wanna pay for that insurance premiums and and sort of, like, get an extra bit of comfort there.
这样就不必非得使用Coinbase、Fidelity之类的平台——还有个名字我一时想不起来了。
Then in instead of having to use, say, Coinbase, Fidelity, or I forgot the name of the other one.
还有个类似的是...
There is one more that's Like,
BitGo、Anchorage、Copper、Backpacked和Niteig这些。
BitGo, Anchorage, Copper, Backpacked, and Niteig.
我不太确定。
I don't know.
这些应该算是大型托管机构吧。
These are some of the big custodians, I guess.
我想关键就在这里。
And I guess that's that's the thing.
对吧？
Right?
就像你说的，严格意义上的所谓'一级'或顶级专业托管机构其实没多少家。
That I I mean, to your point, there's not that many of these kind of, quote, unquote, tier one or whatever top tier big pro level custodians.
光说美国的，用一两只手就数得过来。
You can pretty much name them on one or two hands, right, in terms of The US ones.
确实是这样。
And then yeah.
好的。
Okay.
美国以外也有一些。
There's a few outside The US.
这都是新的。
It's all new.
对吧？
Right?
我是说，就像...是的。
I mean, like Yeah.
你知道的，换个角度想想。
You know, just think about it this way.
比如，黄金有五千年的历史。
Like, gold had five thousand years.
对吧？
Right?
而法定货币至少有一百年了。
And, you know, Fiat had at least a 100.
对吧？
Right?
所以，这取决于你怎么看。
So, like, depending on how you wanna look at it.
现代法定货币 vs 稍早期的法定货币。
Modern Fiat versus slightly older Fiat.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
就是吧，你知道的，这需要时间，而且我觉得大家都差不多，你知道的，每个人都想立刻得到一切，但事实并非如此，就像巨额资金往往有更大的惯性。
So so, you know, it it takes time, and I and I think everybody is just sort of like, you know, everybody wants everything yesterday, and that that's not, like, how how, like, big big money has a lot more inertia.
对吧？
Right?
因为没人想亏钱。
Because nobody wants to lose the money.
所以这需要时间。
So it just takes time.
但我们正在接近目标。
But we're getting there.
我是说，我们正在朝那个方向前进。
I mean, we're go we're going there.
是的。
Yeah.
这很有趣。
It's interesting.
而且我觉得确实如此。
And and I think yeah.
这是个合理的观点，也许像那些顶层的比特币储备公司，持有大量比特币的大机构，他们可能面临法律和监管方面的硬性要求，根本不允许他们自我托管。
It's a fair point that maybe some of these, like, the the top end of town, like, the big, big Bitcoin treasury companies who have, you know, massive stacks, they probably have legal and regulatory kind of just requirements that are just not gonna allow them to self custody.
但我和现在可能面临的一个挑战是，如果你看看这个，人们现在提到的一个担忧是，看看有多少大型ETF仅仅在使用Coinbase的托管服务。
But I and the maybe one challenge now is if you look at this is kind of a concern people are mentioning now is, like, look at how many of the big ETFs are just using Coinbase custody.
对吧？
Right?
而且，我认为就像你说的，这就像是一种自保行为。
And, again, I think to your point, it's like a cover your ass thing.
对吧？
Right?
就是一种自保行为。
It's a CYA thing.
他们可能都选择了Coinbase托管，因为其中一个，你知道，他们就像是在抄袭BlackRock的方案，然后说，哦，好吧。
They probably all went for Coinbase custody because I one of them, you know, they were, like, cribbing the notes off, like, the BlackRock one and being like, oh, okay.
BlackRock的方案已经获批了。
Well, BlackRock got theirs approved.
我们最好也选择Coinbase托管。
We better go Coinbase custody.
如果
If
你要公开上市一家比特币资金公司，就像，你知道的，
you're gonna go public with with a with a Bitcoin treasury company, like, you know,
有，50
there's, 50
是的。
Yeah.
50个复选框。
50 checkboxes.
对吧？
Right?
是啊。
Yeah.
我是说，难道你想把每个复选框都变成需要研究、合规和一堆破事的新玩意儿吗？
I mean, like, do you want to make every check box a new new thing for you to research, get compliance, and all the bullshit?
不。
No.
就像，你会尽量让它们简单明了，直接照搬现有的做法，之后可能再调整那些部分。
Like, you're gonna try to make them as straightforward as possible by, you know, just copying whoever is out there already, and then maybe you change those things.
对吧？
Right?
虽然我们不喜欢大家都挤在同一个地方，但这完全合理。
Like, makes complete sense as much as we don't like people to go in the same spot.
嗯。
Yeah.
最初阶段事情就是这样发展的。
That's that's how things go at first.
你觉得未来会逐渐分散吗？可能不是所有ETF或类似产品，比如11家中有9家，或者很高比例的ETF都在使用Coinbase托管服务，而且很多大型承包商公司可能也在用Coinbase托管。
Do you see it decentralizing out over time that maybe maybe not all the ETFs or whatever, nine of the 11 or whatever, like, a high percent of the ETFs are using Coinbase custody, and probably a lot of the big, big contractor companies, you know, they might be using Coinbase custody.
懂我意思吗？
You know?
这样如何实现去中心化？
How does that decentralize out?
我认为这会改变，因为你知道，没人想要系统性风险。
I think that would change because, you know, I don't think anybody wants systematic risk.
对。
Yeah.
就像，你不想，你知道，在这其中有一条关键路径，那可能会是场灾难。
Like, you don't wanna, you know, like, one critical path in this, you know, and and, you know, it could be a disaster.
对吧？
Right?
所以我觉得，应该努力降低每一层堆栈的风险。
So I I think I think an effort to derisk each each each like, the pile.
这么说吧。
Let's put it this way.
对吧？
Right?
而且，就像，
And, like,
也许可以把它们放在不同的地点。
maybe put them in different in different locations.
明白吗？
You know?
我们很快就要开始了。
We'll be underway soon.
我觉得没人愿意只待在一个地方。
I I don't think anybody wants to be in a single spot.
懂吗？
Know?
而且我认为，你看，我们现在已经有大约300家国债公司，再加上50只ETF。
And I and I think, like, you know, we're gonna have right now, have, what, like, 300 treasury companies and plus another, like, 50 ETFs.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得到年底我们可能会达到1000家。
I think, you know, we're gonna get to probably 1,000 by the end of the year.
这会是...我的我的...
It would be my my my
那速度真快。
my That's fast.
是啊。
Yeah.
没错。
Yeah.
我们很可能达到一千家，当然前提是价格继续上涨。
It's it's very likely we get to a thousand well, that's if the price goes up.
如果价格持续上涨的话。
If the price keeps on going up.
要我说，根据市场走势，年底前至少能达到500家。
You know, I'd say we get to at least 500 by the end of the year depending on on how the market goes.
是的。
Yeah.
没人想在市场下行时推出产品。
Nobody wants to launch on a on a on a down on a down market.
对吧？
Right?
所以我认为你会看到企业开始寻找差异化优势。
So I think you're gonna start seeing companies having to find a differentiator.
对吗？
Right?
否则就都一样了，人们只会买头部和尾部的产品。
Like, otherwise, it's just the same, and people are just gonna buy the top ones and the bottom ones.
所以，你知道，或许一个差异化点可以是，比如说——
So, you know, as as you know, maybe one differentiator is like, hey.
我们使用Anchor Watch。
You know, we use Anchor Watch.
这是有保险的。
It is insured.
明白了。
Gotcha.
所以他们要通过声明来安抚人们，比如说——
So they're gonna try to set people at ease by saying, hey.
我们拥有更完善的托管方案。
We've got a better custody setup.
我们拥有更好的保险方案，或者说我们采用了更先进的技术。
We've got a better insurance setup, or we've got we're using better technology.
没错。
Exactly.
就像人们需要营销卖点一样。
It's like people will have to have marketing points.
对吧？
Right?
即使只是些微差异，但差异确实存在，而且人们在这些公司的投资方式上各有不同的偏好。
Even if they're just, you know, small differences, they are differences, and and people have different profiles on on how they invest their their money in these companies.
是啊。
Yeah.
那我们现在就来聊聊这个，我知道你是bitcointreasuries.net的创始人。
Well, let's talk about this now because I know you you are the founder of bitcointreasuries.net.
我知道你有，Rizzo。
I know you've got, Rizzo.
我想Rizzo是那里的总裁。
I think Rizzo is president there.
我知道他也在负责那个项目。
I know he's working on that project as well.
他加入我们，成为该项目的负责人。
He he joins us to, to to be the lead there.
明白了。
Gotcha.
跟我们简单聊聊这个吧。
So tell us a little bit about this.
我记得你几年前就开始了这个项目，我们甚至在播客上讨论过。
Now I remember you started this years ago, and I remember we were talking probably even on the podcast.
我们当时说，至少你告诉我这个想法是，嘿，
We were saying or at least you were telling me the idea was, hey.
如果你有了排行榜，这群攒币的人就会互相竞争，想争第一或者提升排名。
If you got the leaderboard, a bunch of these people stacking coins will wanna, like, fight each other to be number one or to kind of rise on the ladder.
现在几年过去了，到了2025年，我们真的看到了这种情况。
And now, you know, a few years on, in 2025, we're actually seeing this now.
你还记得那个梗吗？
Do you remember the do you know the meme?
就像推特上流行的'开始vs现状'对比图。
It's like the how it started and how it's going on Twitter.
你知道的，就像...
You know, like, have
展开剩余字幕（还有 480 条）
两张照片。
two photos.
我们最初是从两家公司开始的。
You know, we started, I think, with two companies.
我记得...
I think
当时是MicroStrategy和特斯拉。
with MicroStrategy and Tesla back then.
是啊。
Yeah.
我觉得Block（公司）比他们更早使用这个名称。
I think Block was even before them with the title.
确实如此。
That is true.
对啊。
Yeah.
嗯。
Yeah.
但我觉得MicroStrategy（公司）才是最早的吧。
But I I think we had MicroStrategy first.
反正我也记不清了。
That's anyway, I can't remember.
大概就两三家公司的样子。
But it was, like, two, three companies.
就这样。
That's it.
对吧？
Right?
而现在那里有上千家公司，每家都有不同的架构。
And now we have, you know, like, a thousand companies there, like, differing on what their setup is.
而且你知道，我一直觉得——可能对比特币新人来说这话有争议——但早在Bitcoin talk论坛时期，大家就心知肚明：我们迟早会找到金融系统的后门。
And, you know, it's always been like, I mean, I I maybe it's controversial to some of the new people in in Bitcoin, but, like, you know, I I think even, like, since the the the Bitcoin talk days, like, it's always been the understanding that it's a matter of time before we find a backdoor into the financial system.
对吧？
Right?
法币体系。
The fiat system.
是的。
Yep.
要知道，比特币进入市场的最佳后门就是通过受监管的金融市场。
And, you know, what is the best backdoor for BTC to go in is through the regulated financial markets.
对吧？
Right?
就像，如果你创造了人类有史以来最优质的货币，显然那些需要储存价值的人会使用它。
Like, you know, if you create the best money that humanity has ever had, like, it's obvious that people who are gonna, like, have to store value are gonna use it.
对吧？
Right?
那么，最大的资金池在哪里？
And and that what where are the biggest piles of money?
对吧？
Right?
比如股权。
Like Equity.
是债务。
It's debt.
房地产。
Property.
它们是金融市场。
They're the financial markets.
对吧？
Right?
所以，你看，当我们开始渗透，用我们的小菌丝腿进入一切领域，成为金融和五大交易市场的重要组成部分，这确实是故事的一部分。
So, you know, as we start to permeate, you know, our little mycelium legs into everything, you know, being being a huge part of the financial the the trad five markets, right, is is part of the story.
这真的只是时间问题。
It was just a matter of time, really.
是啊。
Yeah.
而且我觉得很有趣的是，我是说，我们有些人可能会说，看。
And I think it's it's interesting that it took I mean, some of us could say, look.
令人惊讶的是，居然花了这么长时间才有更多人真正尝试效仿迈克尔·塞勒。
It it's kind of surprising that it took so long for more people to actually try and copy Michael Saylor.
十六年根本不算什么。
Sixteen years is is nothing.
就像，用金钱来衡量的话，老兄，这简直疯了。
Like, in in money terms, like, dude, like, it's it's crazy.
就像，科技公司在金融市场存在的时间更长。
Like, tech companies took longer, you know, to exist in financial markets.
对吧？
Right?
就像那种纯粹的SaaS公司类型的东西。
Like like, the the pure sort of, like, SaaS company sort of thing.
对吧？
Right?
就像，你想想看，我们很快就要达到一个阶段，可能真的会有更多公司持有比特币。
Like, you think about it, like, you know, we're we're gonna be very soon at a point where, you know, we're gonna have more if maybe we really are.
持有比特币的上市公司数量将超过持有黄金的公司。
We're gonna have more pubcos holding BTC than hold gold.
我说的是实物黄金，不是那些黄金股票。
Like like, actual gold, not not some gold stock.
对吧？
Right?
我们可能已经达到这个状态了。
We might already be there.
我...我从来没研究过具体数据，但就算现在已经这样我也不会感到惊讶。
I I I don't know what those numbers are as I have never researched that, but it wouldn't surprise me that we would not already be there.
是啊。
Yeah.
这个观点很有意思。
That's an interesting point.
我...其实我也不清楚。
I I don't I don't actually know.
我得去查查资料。
I'd have to look it up.
不过这种现象本身就很有趣，你看现在看数据面板，最上面显然是MSTR，就像房间里的大象一样显眼。
But, it is also kind of fascinating just that, you know, the way it is, like, as I look at the dashboard now, look at the top, you know, obviously, MSTR, the 800 pound gorilla in the room or whatever.
他们拥有64万。
They've got 640,000.
接下来是Mara，大约5.2万，或者说52,008.50美元。
The next is Mara with 52,000 or $52,008.50.
你们有21家在4.3万左右，MetaPlanet约3万，BSTR约3万，然后就是断崖式下跌。
You've got 21 at 43,000, MetaPlanet about 30,000, BSTR about 30,000, and, you know, it's just like a huge drop off.
对吧？
Right?
因为，你怎么看这个问题？
Because, you know, it what what's your take on this?
你认为这会是赢家通吃、赢家占据大部分的局面，还是你觉得小玩家也有崛起的机会？
Do you think it's gonna be just kind of a winner takes all, a winner takes most kind of scenario here, or do you see it as, like, there's a market for smaller guys to come and rise up?
资本就像喜欢聚集一样。
It's like capital likes, like, aggregation.
对吧？
Right?
它倾向于垄断和聚集。
Like, it tends towards monopolies and aggregation.
这就是资本的运作方式。
It's just how capital works.
对吧？
Right?
因为流动性会带来更多流动性。
Because liquidity begets liquidity.
所以我认为我们将看到的是，大约会有20家健康发展的头部企业。
So I I think what we're gonna have is we're gonna have a healthy sort of, like, top 20 companies.
对吧？
Right?
这些公司将占据绝大部分市场份额。
And these guys are gonna have the lion's share of it.
然后剩下的才是其他公司的份额。
And and then they're gonna have the rest.
而中间层会有点受压，因为人们要么选择大公司求稳，要么就追求高风险。
And the rest is gonna be like the middle is gonna get a bit squeezed because, you know, people are gonna either want security by having the big ones or, like, instability.
对吧？
Right?
或者他们会想要那些小盘股，试图押中下一个潜力股。
Or they're gonna want the very little ones to penny stock and try to find the next.
他们想要那种高风险高回报的投资。
They want the high risk, high reward sort of thing.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
我认为人们很可能会这样分散他们的投资组合。
And I think that's how people are gonna probably split their portfolios.
就是押注头部和尾部。
It's gonna be the top and the bottom.
所以，我想现在对于中型企业来说，机会在于寻找与大型企业不同的金融市场。
So, you know, I I guess, like, the opportunity right now for for the middle ones is to, one, find financial markets that are different than the big ones have.
因此，可以去寻找像Orange和巴西这样的国家，或者去发掘尚未开发的金融市场，并尝试构建更适应该特定市场的解决方案。
So, you know, go find other countries like Orange and Brazil or, you know, like, go go find financial markets that are untapped and and try to build a like, something that is more compatible with that specific market.
我在那里有优势。
I have an advantage there.
那么你同意这种观点吗？即每个司法管辖区最终只会出现少数几家赢家？
So do you agree then with the idea that it's kind of like there'll be a few winners per jurisdiction then?
你是这样看的吗？
Is that kinda how you're seeing it?
完全同意。
Absolutely.
是的。
Yes.
没错。
Yes.
但我认为人们会变得聪明起来。
But but I I think people are gonna get clever.
对吧？
Right?
我认为会出现一些在某方面非常擅长的公司。
I think you're gonna have companies that are gonna be very good at one thing.
尽管它们的市值可能不是最大的，但它们可能在某种对投资者有意义的金融化操作上非常出色。
Even though they may not have the biggest market cap, they might be very good at some specific financialization that makes sense for the investor.
你知道吗？
You know?
对。
Right.
无论是阿尔法生成策略还是类似的东西。
Whether it's alpha generation strategies or something like that.
对吧？
Right?
比如，可能我不清楚。
Like, maybe I don't know.
也许Strive会想出一些奇怪的，你知道的，那种刚好适合寻找特定需求人群的方案。
Maybe Strive comes up with some weird, you know, like, thing that just works for the people looking for that specific thing.
对吧？
Right?
也许他们规模不如MicroStrategy，但或许能解决那个问题。
And maybe they're not as big as MicroStrategy, but maybe they solve that problem.
对吧？
Right?
本节目由CoinKite赞助，他们制造了我最爱的比特币硬件钱包——Coldcard Q。
This episode is brought to you by CoinKite, the makers of my favorite Bitcoin hardware wallet, the cold card, Q.
有人认为自我托管太难，但这实际上是为你比特币财富负责的表现，明白自我托管能带来真正的自由感。
Now some people think self custody is too hard, but it's really about taking responsibility for your Bitcoin wealth and understanding that self custody gives you a true feeling of liberty.
Coldcard Q配备全键盘和大屏幕，拥有双安全元件和真正的物理隔离，通过二维码实现从种子生成到交易签名的全物理隔离操作。
The Coldcard Q has a full keyboard and big screen, it's got two secure elements and a true air gap, allowing you to go fully air gapped using QR codes from seed generation to transaction signing.
你可以使用三节AAA电池为设备供电，这样甚至不需要插墙充。
You can power the device using three AAA batteries so you don't even have to plug it into the wall for power.
你可以轻松配合PC端的Sparrow钱包或移动端的Nunchuck使用，并能根据需求调节安全等级和复杂程度。
You can easily use it with Sparrow Wallet for PC or Nunchuck on mobile and you can dial it in to the right level of security and complexity that you choose.
如果想要简单设置，只需使用12个单词和单签名即可。
If you want a simple setup, just use 12 words and a single signature.
如果需要密码短语，也很简单。
If you want passphrases, easy.
如果想添加多重签名或联署功能，这些也都支持。
If you want to add multisig or cosigning features, you've got those too.
现在就去coinkite.com，使用优惠码Lovera购买冷钱包或其他设备可享9折优惠，立即升级你的自主托管方案。
So go to coinkite.com, use code Lovera to get 10% off on your cold card or other devices and level up your self custody today.
明白了。
Gotcha.
对。
Yeah.
而且，就在我们讨论并购的时候，他们刚收购了Semler。
And, I mean, as you as we spoke about mergers and acquisitions, they just bought, Semler.
对吧？
Right?
这就是个例子。
So that's an example.
你看，这个领域已经出现并购案例了。
Like, we've already seen M and A in this space.
对我来说这有点早，感觉就像，哇。
Like, that's kind of early to me, that feels like, wow.
我本以为这事会晚点发生，你知道的，可能再过一两年。
I wasn't expecting that to happen until, you know, a bit later, maybe another year or two down the track.
这完全合理。
It makes complete sense.
你懂吧？
You know?
为什么不直接用股票再买一批比特币呢？
Why not buy another stack of BTC with stock?
是啊。
Yeah.
对啊。
Yeah.
我是说，这是增值的。
I mean, it's accretive.
对吧？
Right?
所以
So
没错。
Yeah.
正是这样。
Exactly.
我觉得我觉得我觉得他们的交易主要是股票。
I think I think I think their deal was probably mostly stock.
我我我不知道。
I I I don't know.
我还没看。
I haven't looked.
但我认为是股权。
But I think it was equity.
不过确实。
But yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
对吧？
Right?
所以，要么是直接股权，要么是某种形式的股票补偿，这样就不用去借钱了。
So, like, either either direct equity or, you know, some form of stock compensation so you don't have to go, you know, borrow money.
你知道的，多印些股票，然后就能再收购一堆比特币。
You know, you print more shares and, you know, and you acquire another pile of BTC.
这个策略相当合理。
That's pretty sound strategy.
对吧？
Right?
尤其是在早期阶段，这么做完全可行。
Especially this early that you can get away with it.
是的。
Yeah.
据我理解，现在的游戏规则似乎正在变化，当然，游戏本身也在演变，所以可能几个月后答案就会不同。
And I guess it seems like the game now, as I understand it and, of course, the game is changing, so maybe the answer is different in a few months' time.
但现在的游戏似乎是要进入优先股阶段。
But it seems like the game now is to sort of get to the preferred chess phase.
显然MSTR已经做到了。
So MSTR is obviously already there.
MetaPlanet提到过这点，但其他公司可能将其视为终局目标。
MetaPlanet has spoken about that, but maybe the others are, like, seeing it as, look, that's the endgame.
我们需要达到一定规模和体量才能发行优先股。
We need and and in order to be able to do preferred shares, we need to get to a certain size and scale.
所以现在的游戏可能是要发展到那个规模。
And so maybe the game is get to that size.
我认为关键在于，由于MicroStrategy正在尝试各种新举措并观察哪些可行，其他公司都会试图效仿一些。
I I think the thing is, like, because MicroStrategy is, like, pushing a bunch of new things and see what sticks, I think everybody else is gonna try to copy a bit.
但我认为很快我们就会看到情况变成这样：你知道吗？
But, like, I think very soon, we're gonna start seeing things where it's like, you know what?
就像，不。
Like, no.
我们只做普通股。
We're gonna only do common.
那就是我们的方向，你懂吗？
That's You gonna be our You know?
然后其他人会去做其他事情。
And then somebody else gonna do something else.
因为你知道，就像，你没法...我是说，只有天知道。
And because, you know, like, you can't I mean, God knows.
也许，在某种规模下，你可以做更多事情。
Maybe, like, you know, in a certain size, you can do more things.
但一般来说，你能做的事情是有限的。
But, like, generally speaking, you can only do so many things.
对吧？
Right?
而且你要把那件事做到最好。
And you wanna be the best at that one thing.
再说一次，要给股东带来回报，你不必成为最大的那个。
And, again, like, to to give returns to shareholders, you don't have to be the biggest one.
对吧？
Right?
所以我不知道。
So I don't know.
这很难说。
It's hard to know.
这些都非常新。
Like, this is all so new.
我是说，你以前根本不可能做这些破事，因为你从来没有过一种没有对手方风险的底层资产。
I mean, like, you have never been able to do any of this shit before because you never had a a a asset, an underlying asset that has no counterparty risk.
是啊。
Yeah.
我是说，这就是游戏规则。
I mean, that's the game.
对吧？
Right?
游戏的目标就是积累这个东西，我认为目前已经出现了很多质疑和挑战，尤其是现在国库类公司正处于低迷期。
The game is to accumulate this thing, and I think there have been a lot of questions and challenges thrown, especially now that treasury companies are in a bit of a lull.
有些人认为，这个领域里可能只有少数几家是优质的，其他人的观点是，或许还有几家的发展空间，但除此之外都是垃圾，就纯粹的运营模式而言，你应该拥有一个能赚取比特币而不是依赖金融手段的业务。
There are some people saying, you know, it's there's a lot of there's maybe a few good like, the view of other people in the space is they would say, well, maybe there's a room for a few, and then there's just a lot of trash out there, in terms of the pure plays and that you should have a business that's earning Bitcoin not using financial techniques.
你对这个问题怎么看？
Where are you on that question?
你觉得这个领域能容纳多少家金融工程类比特币国库公司或纯运营公司？发展空间有多大？
Like, do you see it like there is room for how many how much room is there for, let's say, financial engineering Bitcoin treasury companies or pure plays?
对。
Yeah.
我是说，这个空间可以说是无限的。
I mean, it's it's, like, endless.
你知道，完全看不到尽头。
You you know, completely endless.
我认为人们会不断涌入，我们甚至还没见识到所有可能的发展方向。
Like, people will come I think we still have not seen the things that are possible, you you know, like, at all.
没错。
Yeah.
我们甚至还没开始考虑它们。
We haven't even thought of them yet.
我们需要...我们需要很多时间在市场上，来研究那些我们可以立即看到并操作的东西。
We we need to we need to like, we need a lot of time in the market with the things that we can kind of, like, immediately see and play with it.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得我们甚至还没接近可能性的边界。
Like, I I don't think we have even gotten close to to what's possible.
我想，这就像你拥有一个没有对手方风险的资产。
I guess, it's like you have a you have an asset that has no counterparty risk.
一旦市场理解了这种资产的价值，情况就会真正改变。
Once the market understands the value of that, like, things really change.
对吧？
Right?
因为目前他们处理Dura Lightning资产时，都必须遵循基于有对手方风险资产的证券法规。
Because right now, everything that they do with the Dura Lightning asset has to sort of follow securities law based on assets that have counterparty risk.
对吧？
Right?
所以这是个棘手的问题。
So like, it's it's a tricky thing.
只是我们还没跨越很多障碍，就像我们还没跨过鸿沟。
It's just we haven't crossed a lot, like, we haven't crossed a chasm yet.
对吧？
Right?
比如说，市场还需要五到十年的时间，对吧？监管机构才能真正理解现状，我们需要更多合格的托管机构，也需要开始为这些公司设计出有趣的技术方案，让它们之间也能转移资金。
Like, you need another five, ten years in the market, right, for regulators to really wrap their heads around what's going on, for us to have more diversity in qualified custodians, for us to, like, you know, start coming up with interesting technical solutions for these companies to to move funds between them as well.
我觉得...我们只是...我们受伤太深了。
I think I think we just we're we're just so hurt.
是啊。
Yeah.
有意思。
Interesting.
所以你认为这些东西其实潜力巨大，但显然过程会很疯狂。
So you see it like there is actually a lot of potential for these things, but it's obviously, it's gonna be a a wild ride.
我们谁都无法预测发展路径。
None of us can predict the pathway.
不过我想问，在你看来，你对这些事物从根本上持乐观态度吗？
But I guess, in your view, are you fundamentally bullish on these things?
我猜有些比特币玩家想问的是——比特币圈里有一派人认为这违背了密码朋克精神。
And I guess maybe the question some Bitcoiners would wanna ask is there's one camp of Bitcoiners who see it like, you know, it's anti decipherpunk ethos.
为什么要讨论资金管理公司？明明应该只用自我托管和点对点交易才对啊？
Why are you talking about treasury companies when you should be, you know, only using self custody and peer to peer?
你也这么看吗？让我换个说法。
Do you see it as well, let me put it this way.
有些人比较反对资金管理公司。
There's some people who are kind of against treasury companies.
还有些中间派，他们大概就是...
There's some people in the middle who are sort of, like, just
要知道，比特币的需求就是比特币的需求。
You know, Bitcoin demand is Bitcoin demand.
对吧？
Right?
是啊。
Like Yeah.
想怎么用就怎么用。
Use it however you want.
比特币的核心就在于它是你自己的事。
The whole point of Bitcoin is it's your own damn business.
对吧？
Right?
所以，你知道的，需求就是需求。
So so, you know, like, demand is demand.
比如，我根本不在乎比特币的需求来自哪里。
Like, I don't care where the demand comes for for Bitcoin.
需求越多，资产规模就越大，我们作为个人持有者就越有保障。
And the more demand we have, the bigger the asset gets, the more protected we are as individual holders.
对吧？
Right?
所以，你要知道，就把这个公共池当作护城河。
So, you know, just just think of, like, this pub cause as as moat.
对吧？
Right?
你看，政府再也不能动你的资产了，因为他们要是敢动，市场就会崩盘，教师的养老金就发不出来了。
Like, you know, your government no longer can fuck with your asset, because if they fuck with your asset, now they trash the market, and now the teachers' pensions don't work.
对吧？
Right?
所以啊，他们现在根本没法通过监管来搞垮比特币了。
So so, like, they they literally can't break BTC anymore of regulation.
没错。
Right.
因为它已经随时间深深扎根，越来越融入整个体系了。
Because it's become so ingrained over time as it gets more ingrained into the system.
正是如此。
That's right.
就像电力一样。
Like, it's like it's like electricity.
对吧？
Right?
就像你想要更多电线，到处都需要。
Like, if you you want you want more power lines, right, everywhere.
对吧？
Right?
你想要一个更互联的电网。
Like, you want you want a a more connected grid.
对吧？
Right?
因为这样更安全。
Because then you're safer.
对吧？
Right?
比如，如果一个节点出问题，电力输送还能继续。
Like, if one spot breaks, you still get power delivery.
对吧？
Right?
是啊。
Yeah.
要知道，现在没人能因为某些人不喜欢就让你那儿的用电变成非法。
Know, and nobody's gonna make electricity illegal now in your area anymore just because some people don't like it.
实在太好用了。
Simply too useful.
太多人的生活都依赖这东西了。
Too many people's lives depend on this thing.
就像，要是那么做就太蠢了，你懂的。
Like, it would just be foolish to kinda, you know, do that.
现在要担心的可能是，好吧。
Now the concern could be, okay.
行吧，NVK。
Fine, NVK.
数量会增加，但他们会把这事搞砸，会制造出这种KYC合规的噩梦，所有东西都得经过KYC监管，而且可能他们还会打击自主托管或点对点交易。
Number's gonna go up, but they're going to corrupt this thing that it's gonna create this kind of KYC compliance nightmare that's gonna be kind of everything has to be KYC regulated, and, you know, there's no maybe they make moves against self custody or peer to peer.
对此你会说什么？
What do you what would you say to that?
你认为这是真实存在的还是并非如此，或者虽有风险但没那么高？
Do you think that's a a real thing or not really or it's a risk but not that high?
我认为，交易自由和言论自由的斗争永远不会结束。
I mean, I think the the battle for for freedom of transaction, freedom of expression will never end.
对吧？
Right?
就像，没人会讨论言论自由这个话题。
Like, it it's like like, nobody has this conversation about free speech.
对吧？
Right?
就像，哦，不。
Like, oh, it's like, oh, no.
我们不应该有大报纸对抗小报纸的情况。
We shouldn't have big newspapers versus small newspapers.
没人会争论这个。
Like, nobody's arguing about that.
真正的斗争在于，你能否拥有言论自由或交易自由？
It's like, the the battle really is is like, can you have freedom of expression or freedom of transaction or not?
对吧？
Right?
所以我认为，关键在于让更多可货币化的主体持有这种资产，这样他们就有动力让资产具有可替代性。
So I I I think, like, the the point is you want more monetized actors having this asset, so it's in their interest to make the asset fungible.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为这大体上是正确的，但我可以想象，比如想象一个叫奥德尔的人可能会说，嘿。
That's I think that's mostly true, but I could I could imagine, like, imagine an Odell or someone who might say, hey.
看。
Look.
这些财政部公司中的一些，他们可能有明显的NGU激励对齐，但他们可能不太关心自由这一方面。
Some of these treasury companies, they might have, obviously, NGU aligned as incentive, but they may not care as much about the freedom side of things.
你知道吗？
You know?
比如，他们可能希望数字上涨，但可能不在乎你的交易自由。
Like, they may want the number to go up, but they may not care about your freedom to transact.
是的。
Yeah.
这这是个合理的观点。
That that's that's a fair point.
但但问题是，他们创造需求并让数字上涨，这让所有追求自由的人变得更富有，而现实是，你无法与监管对抗。
But but the thing is, like, them creating demand and making the number go up, it makes everybody who wants freedom more rich, and the people, you know, reality is, like, you can't fight regulation.
你无法对抗国家的贫困。
You can't fight the state being poor.
你你打算怎么办？
What what are you gonna do?
去街上大喊大叫吗？
Go scream on the streets?
就是说，你知道的，抗议根本没用。
Like, you can't, like you know, protests don't work.
就是说，你能怎么办？
Like, what are you gonna go?
抗议吗？
Protest?
就是说，你知道的，这太愚蠢了。
Like, it doesn't you know, it's it's idiotic.
就是说，改变现状的方法是通过收买政府。
Like, you know, the the way you change things is by, you know, buying the government.
对吧？
Right?
就是说，要收买政府，你得有钱。
Like, in order to buy the government, you have to have money.
我们必须实现NGU（数字资产增值）。
We gotta get NGU.
我们必须让比特币持有者更富有。
We gotta get the Bitcoin people wealthier.
我们需要达到逃逸速度。
That's we need escape velocity.
对吧？
Right?
我们需要摆脱国家行为体的经济逃逸速度。
We need economic escape velocity from state actors.
对吧？
Right?
因为当个人拥有巨大经济实力时，他们就能影响政府决策。
Because when the individuals, like, have a lot of economic power, they have influence over governments.
对吧？
Right?
他们会确保自己的资产以他们偏好的方式得到保护。
And they will make sure that, you know, their asset is protected in the way that they prefer.
确实如此。
So Yeah.
可以说，特朗普现象某种程度上也反映了加密行业的现状。
I mean, arguably, with Trump phenomenon, at least partially, the crypto industry now yeah.
比特币玩家和一些山寨币投资者投入了资金。
Bitcoin and maybe some shitcoin people, they put in some money.
他们支持特朗普，甚至可以说试图用'橙皮策略'影响特朗普家族，现在特朗普家族某种程度上也参与进来了。
They supported Trump, and they kind of arguably, you could say, they tried to orange peel the Trump family, and now the Trump family is kind of on board.
现在可能还存在一些
Now maybe there's some
负面影响。
downside to too.
你希望他们持有相同的资产组合。
You them to have the same bags.
事情就是这样。
So this is the thing.
你希望每个人都和你用同款包。
You want everybody to have the same bags as you.
对吧？
Right?
因为他们不会动这些包。
Because they don't mess with the bags.
就像，如果政客们在赚比特币，他们就希望有自由交易那些，你知道的，腐败贿赂之类的。
Like, if the politicians are earning BTC, they want freedom to transact their, you know, corrupt bribes or whatever.
是啊。
Yeah.
就是这么回事。
It's like exactly.
就像，交易这些东西符合每个人的利益。
Like, it's in everybody's interest to transact the stuff.
对吧？
Right?
你你想要那样。
You you want that.
我我觉得，有很多比特币玩家让我有点联想到加拿大的枪支管制。
I I think, like, there's a lot of Bitcoiners that, like, remind me a little bit of, like, Canadian firearms regulation.
就像加拿大的枪支拥有者几十年来，他们总抱着那种态度，你知道的，只要不直视霸凌者的眼睛，对吧，他们就不会动你的东西。
It's like Canadian firearms owners for for decades, they sort of, like, always had this approach of, like, you know, if you just don't look the bully in the eye, right, like, they don't mess with your stuff.
但这种权利正不断被侵蚀。
But it just keeps on getting eroded.
对吧？
Right?
因为，你知道，他们大概就是那种，你懂的，我们保持沉默就好。
Because, you know, they just sort of like, you know what, we're just gonna stay quiet.
希望不会发生枪击事件，也没人出来找枪。
Hopefully, there's no shooting and nobody comes out for the guns.
对吧？
Right?
但现在我们在加拿大处于这样一个阶段，你知道，他们正在拿走一切。
But now we're like in a in a point in Canada where it's like, you know, they're just taking everything.
所以现实就是，你必须让自己变得强大，必须建立游说团体，必须积聚大量群众基础。
So the the reality is, like, you have to capitalize yourself, you have to build lobby, you have to build a lot of mass.
你必须成为一个无懈可击的，你懂的
You have to be an unfuckable, you know
没错。
Right.
体系。
System.
是的。
Yeah.
然后他们就无计可施了，因为你掌控着他们。
And then they can't do anything about it because you own them.
对吧？
Right?
就是，你知道的，事情就是这样运作的。
Like, that that's, you know, that's how it works.
就像，人们总是对民主抱有某种浪漫的想象，那种一百年前的观点。
Like, people have this sort of, like, you know, romantic view of democracy from, like, a 100 ago.
对吧？
Right?
但现实并非如此。
And and that's not the reality.
每个系统都会被渗透，掌握更多资本和权力的人就能制定规则。
It's just that, like, every single system gets gained, and whoever has access to more capital and more power gets to set the rules.
对吧？
Right?
我认为我们必须认清这一点。
And and I think that we have to get there.
我们需要尝试用钱袋而非枪杆来驯服政府。
You know, we have to to try to to tame government from the pocket, not from the gun.
对吧？
Right?
有意思。
Interesting.
是啊。
Yeah.
某种程度上，我听过不同解释这个观点的方式，其中一种是：许多早期比特币持有者因为变得富有而更有权势，所以现在社会精英中有更大比例是比特币玩家。
And so in a way, I've heard different ways of explaining this idea, but one idea is that a lot of early Bitcoiners because they've become wealthy, they've become more powerful, and so it's kind of like the elites in society, a greater percentage of them are Bitcoiners.
然后也许一些现有的法币精英们也加入了，因为他们现在也想持有比特币。
And then maybe some of the current existing fiat elites, they've also kind of come in because now they wanna hold Bitcoin too.
所以我猜想，随着更多所谓的精英们持有比特币，社会会发生什么变化，这将给社会带来什么样的转变？
So I guess what happens to society as more of the, quote, unquote, elites have some Bitcoin, and what kind of shift in society will that create?
是的。
Yep.
我是说，就像，你知道的，社会历来都是由地主和其他贵族阶层统治的。
I I mean, like, you know, societies, like, things literally ever have been run by a former and other aristocracy.
对吧？
Right?
就像，总是那些能获取最多财富的人在掌控。
Like, it and that's always the people who have access to the most amount of wealth.
你明白吗？
You know?
是啊。
Yeah.
就像，不是。
Like, not.
这似乎是，你知道的
That seems to be, you know
不。
No.
就是这样。
That's it.
就像，事情就是这样运作的。
Like, that's how it works.
对吧？
Right?
就像，你可以给平民投票权。
Like, you you can give the the plebes the vote.
人们喜欢这样描述它，但实际上这并没有什么实质作用。
That's how, you know, people like to describe it, but, like, it doesn't really do anything.
对吧？
Right?
更用力地投票。
Vote harder.
对吧？
Right?
就像，而且而且而且没人想要混乱。
Like and and and nobody wants chaos.
没人想要战争。
Nobody wants war.
我是说，当然，有些人会从中获益，但没人希望战争发生在自己家门口。
I mean, sure, there's a few people who win from that here and there, but nobody wants war in their own backyard.
对吧？
Right?
就像，这是普遍真理。
Like, that's that's universal.
是啊。
Like Yeah.
你看，即便是那些，你知道的，那些靠军工复合体赚钱的人，他们也不希望战争发生在自己家里。
You know, even, like, you know, the people who who, you know, spend you know, make all their money for military industrial complex, they don't want war in their house.
对。
Right.
就像，他们是
Like, they're
把儿女送上战场。
be sons and daughters away to war.
对吧？
Right?
没错。
Exactly.
就像，这是战争，但不在我们这里。
Like, it's like war, but not here.
对吧？
Right?
所以你看，这和比特币的运作方式其实没什么不同。
So so, you know, it's no different really than, you know, how it plays out with with Bitcoin.
就像，我希望在这里拥有我的自由。
It's like, I want freedom for my thing here.
懂吗？
You know?
我们现在只是将这种情况类推到一种国际化的资产上，而且这种资产无法被去国际化，就像黄金一样。
And and we're just sort of, like, now extrapolating that to an asset that's international, and and it cannot be deinternationalized, right, like like gold was.
是的。
Yeah.
我们来稍微讨论一下，我认为人们对债务的态度也发生了一些变化。
Let's talk a little bit about I think there's been some shifting attitudes on debt also.
对吧？
Right?
因为整个比特币国库策略的一部分，在我看来——当然这里可能有不同的解读——但我认为有一种解读是：这些国库公司内嵌的杠杆作用使它们能够跑赢比特币。
Because part of this whole Bitcoin treasury play, it seems to me now I guess there's different interpretations here, but I think one interpretation is it's the leverage embedded into these treasury companies that allows them to outperform Bitcoin.
对吧？
Right?
需要明确的是，这并不像做50倍杠杆。
Because now to be clear, this is not like going 50 x long.
更像是20%的杠杆率。
It's more like 20% leverage.
比如说1.2倍，也许是1.3倍，有些公司可能更接近1.1倍。
So let's say 1.2 x, maybe 1.3 x, or some of these companies are more like 1.1 x.
而这些债务，你知道，因为他们获得了廉价...我是说低成本的融资。
And that debt is, you know, because they're getting cheap fine cheap finance.
对吧？
Right?
比如说定价合理。
Let's say priced.
对吧？
Right?
它是以美元计价的。
Like, it's priced in dollars.
对吧？
Right?
所以，比特币的基准利率大概是每年30%，而法币则完全相反。
So, like, you know, the the the Bitcoin hurdle rate is, like, what whatever, 30% a year, and fiat is, you know, like like, the opposite of that.
是啊。
Yeah.
如果人们能以10%或更低的利率借款，我想个人层面也能适用部分这样的条件。
If people can borrow at 10% or less and I guess some of that can be applied at the individual level.
只是你我作为个人，拿不到大型上市公司那样的借款条件。
It's just that you and I as individuals, we can't get the same terms that a big public company can.
我是说
I mean
所以可能确实如此。
And so maybe did.
你懂吧？
You know?
比如十年前，很多人抵押房产贷款买比特币。
Like, ten years ago, a lot of people took mortgages on their houses and bought from the BTC.
对吧？
Right?
比如
Like
嗯，那是在法币那一侧。
Well, that's on the fiat side.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
所以，我是说，而且抵押贷款是由法币补贴的。
So, I mean and and the mortgages are fiat subsidized.
对吧？
Right?
就像，法币抵押贷款。
Like, fiat mortgages.
对吧？
Right?
但是，但是，就像，金融市场也没什么不同。
But but, like, it's no different in the financial markets.
对吧？
Right?
只是，比如，如果你是金融公司就不需要抵押房子。
It's just that, like, you don't need to mortgage your house if you're a financial company.
你基本上可以用股份作抵押。
You can essentially mortgage your shares.
对吧？
Right?
就像，你可以说我现在过于简化了，但大概就是这个意思。
Like, you can I'm overly, like, being very simplistic here, but, like, that's the idea.
关键在于，你拥有资产。
It's that, like, you have assets.
你可以用比特币作为抵押品借款，也可以用某种形式的股票作为抵押。
You you can either borrow against your BTC, which is the collateral there, but you can borrow against, you know, a a form of shares.
对吧？
Right?
比如，你可以用金融体系更熟悉的资产进行抵押借款，因此他们能获得更优惠的贷款利率。
Like, you can you can borrow against different things that financial systems understand better, and that's why they can get better pricing on on that debt.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为随着时间推移，随着市场对这种比特币抵押贷款的理解加深，这部分贷款的利率会逐渐下降。
So I think what we're seeing over time is the interest rates for this Bitcoin collateralized side of things come down a little bit over time as more of the market understands what this is.
这是我们注意到的一个现象。
I think that's something we've noticed.
当然，就像你说的，人们想方设法获取廉价法币来投资比特币，这显然就是整个资金管理公司的玩法。
And, of course, like you said, people wanna get in and find the ways to get the cheap fiat and put it into Bitcoin, and that's obviously that's this whole treasury company play.
至少这是故事的一部分。
Like, that's that's at least part of the story.
虽然不是全部，但确实是重要部分，不是吗？
It's not the whole story, but it's a big part of the story, isn't it?
是的。
Yes.
而且我觉得情况会，呃，稍微有点变化。
And I and I I think things are gonna, like, switch up a bit a a little bit.
一旦你试过五家银行，你知道，就会有你真正信赖的街角银行。
One once, like, you have tried five banks, you know, like, you got your, you know, like, really, like, corner bank.
对吧？
Right?
我不是在说摩根大通那种。
Like, I'm not talking about, you know, JPMorgan.
对普通人来说开户很难。
It's hard for, like, an average person to open an account.
我说的是真正的街角银行，比如美国银行、道明银行的街角分行。
And I'm talking about, like, really the corner, you know, Bank of America, the corner TD Bank.
对吧？
Right?
比如说开发一种产品，让他们允许你用BTC抵押借款，就像用股票抵押一样。
Like, having a product where, you know, like, they they let you borrow against your BTC, for example, the same way that they let you borrow against your shares.
我认为信用抵押贷款市场会大幅改善。
I I think the the market for the credit collateralized loans is gonna greatly improve.
对吧？
Right?
因为竞争会激烈得多。
Because there's gonna be a lot more competition.
你知道吗？
You know?
对于比特币储备公司来说，这个道理同样适用。
And that's gonna be true also versus the Bitcoin treasury companies.
对吧？
Right?
所以散户投资者会说，嘿，
So retail is gonna go and say, hey.
你看，我可以去买MicroStrategy的股票，或者直接买比特币然后自己加杠杆。
You know, I can go buy MicroStrategy, or I can just both buy Bitcoin and borrow myself.
这会让市场动态发生一些变化。
You know, it's gonna change the dynamic a bit.
同时这也会降低贷款利率，比如说借贷利率。
And that's also gonna bring down the the interest the interest rate for, say, like, lending.
对吧？
Right?
就像现在，如果他们想借钱重新购置土地，你知道是有一定成本的。
Like, where, you know, right now, if they wanna borrow money to to re land, you know, like, it's a certain cost.
但如果银行习惯了人们用BTC抵押贷款，他们可能会以更低利率放贷，或者干脆自己买地。
But if the banks are used to people borrowing against BTC, they might lend to lending at a cheaper price, you know, or they might just buy land.
对吧？
Right?
就像是
It's like
是啊。
Yeah.
是啊。
Yeah.
我认为借贷业务会引起广泛关注，这个话题已经被提出来了。
I think there's there's gonna be a lot of interest in this lending stuff, and it has come up.
我理解比特币圈里有些人可能对此有争议，或者他们从道德、宗教或哲学角度对债务本身持反对态度。
And I understand if for some people in the Bitcoin world, that's controversial or they see that as, like, they have more of a moral or religious or philosophical objection to debt just in general.
但最终会有很多人关注到这个领域。
But, ultimately, there'll be a lot of people who will see this.
是啊。
Yeah.
这就像，别人怎么处理自己的钱不关你的事。
It's like, it's none of your business what people do with their money.
懂吗？
You know?
就像，没人在乎。
Like, nobody cares.
是啊。
Yeah.
我个人并不反对使用债务工具。
I I I'm not, I'm not personally opposed to using debt.
不过确实，观察这类现象会很有趣，因为总会有人对此评头论足，但他们最后又会说，看吧
But, yeah, certainly, it just it'll be interesting to see that kind of, because there'll be people who are kinda commenting on that, but then they'll say, well, look.
嘿。
Hey.
你阻止不了我。
You can't stop me.
对吧？
Right?
因为总会有人持相反意见，那边会有人说，没错。
Because there'll be someone else who's saying, like, on the other side of that, there's there'll be someone who's saying, yeah.
我打算利用债务来尝试
I am gonna use debt and try to
阻止我。
stop me.
我觉得推特上也有很多键盘侠。
Think there's a lot of Twitter tigers too.
对吧？
Right?
就像是 对啊。
It's like Yeah.
就是很多人整天在推特上看各种乱七八糟的东西，但归根结底，他们的经济生活其实非常普通，私下里你知道的。
It's just a lot of people seeing all kinds of shit on Twitter, but then at the end of the day, they're like, you know, totally normie life economically speaking on on you know, in private.
要我说，你就不该从推特上获取理财建议。
You know, I don't think you should take your your financial advice from from Twitter in general.
总之别从推特上接受任何建议。
Just don't take any advice from Twitter.
除非是买比特币。
Unless it's buy Bitcoin.
懂吗？
You know?
这才是真正最稳妥的选择。
That's the only that's really the safest thing.
确实如此。
It is.
最酷的地方在于，你看，我们可以讨论所有这些金融化、各种角度和乱七八糟的东西。
And that's the cool thing too is that, like, you know, we we can talk about all this financialization, all these angles, and all this shit.
但归根结底，你完全可以像原始人一样，买一堆BTC存进冷钱包，然后该干嘛干嘛，根本不用操心。
But at the end of the day, you can just, like, you know, go full caveman, you know, like, and buy buy a bunch of BTC, put in your cold card, and and, like, go live your life and not give a fuck.
说到底，这就是它的承诺。
You know, at the end of the day, it's that that's the promise.
对吧？
Right?
人们可以随心所欲地使用它。
It's like people use it however they want.
而且说实话，这才是最好的使用方式。
And and, you know, honestly, that is the best way to use it.
是啊。
Yeah.
我在想另一个有趣的点——不知道你有没有什么见解——关于思维模式的转变。
I think the other interesting thing I'm curious if you have any take on, I guess, mindset shifts.
对吧？
Right?
因为比特币已经涨了很多，就在我们说话的时候。
Because Bitcoin has gone up quite a lot, right, as we speak.
现在大概是每个比特币11.8万美元。
It's, whatever, a $118,000 per BTC.
但还是有一群元老级玩家，他们可能不怎么在推特或网上露面，其中有些人可能有点幻灭感，或者有点置身事外的感觉，尽管他们手里还握着大部分币。
And yet there's, like, a bunch of OGs who maybe aren't as public on Twitter or online, and they're just kinda you know, some of them are maybe a bit disillusioned or maybe they're just kind of checked out a little bit, even though they're still huddling most of the the coins.
你观察到他们心态上有什么变化吗？
What are you seeing there in terms of mindset shifts there?
是不是有人对现状感到不满，甚至对这些花里胡哨的新玩意儿有意见？
Is it are are people, like, annoyed with what's going on or even, like, all these nuts and cool stuff?
你看到和听到的情况是怎样的？
What are you what are you seeing and hearing?
没有，没什么变化。
No no change.
我认识的元老玩家没有一个不是看涨的，都在过着自己最好的生活。
I don't know a single OG that's not just, like, bullish living their own best lives.
是啊。
Yeah.
我觉得大部分噪音都来自最近刚进入比特币领域的新人。
Like, you know, I I I think I think most of the noise is coming from recent sort of entrance into Bitcoin.
所以这算是他们经历的第一个周期。
So it's, like, their first sort of, like it's their first cycle.
这是他们第一次或第二次尝试
It's their first or second go
左右。
around.
循环。
Cycle.
是啊。
Yeah.
不是第三次或对。
Not the third or Yeah.
但是，我我不认识任何上了年纪的人不是完全就是，嗯，对。
But, like, I I don't I don't know anybody who's who's, like, an old an oldie who's not just, like, complete just like, yep.
这很棒。
This is great.
事情正按计划进行。
Things are working according to plan.
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