第一集

欢迎来到Strong Source Commodities播客。

Welcome to the Strong Source Commodities Podcast.

我们是你们的主持人，马丁·布劳恩和亚历山大·施蒂尔克。

We are your host, Martin Braun and Alexander Stierck.

欢迎来到我们人生中的第一个播客。

Welcome to our very first podcast of our lives.

我的意思是，这是一件特别的事情。

I mean, this is something special.

我的意思是，我们一直听播客，现在我们自己也要做一个关于大宗商品的播客。

I mean, listening to podcasts, and now we're we're trying to make one ourselves about commodities.

我对这件事感到非常兴奋。

I'm super excited about this.

我希望你也一样，看着你，看到你的微笑。

I hope you hope you too looking at you seeing your smile.

我的意思是，这有多酷啊？

I mean, how, how cool is that?

在接下来的节目中，我们将谈论商品、商品世界以及与之相关的所有内容。

We're going to talk about commodities, the world of commodities and everything around it in the following episodes.

是的。

Yeah.

我对此真的非常兴奋。

And I was just super excited about this.

你感觉怎么样？

How do you feel?

是的，这真的很棒，因为我清楚地记得，当时我在这里，我们开会时没有任何议程，像往常一样聊着业务和商品市场的情况。

Yeah, it's really great because I vividly recall when I was here and we had no agenda for a meeting and we were talking as usual about the business, about what's going on in commodity markets.

就在会议快结束、我即将回家之前，你说了句：‘还有一件事。’

And then at the very end of the meeting, almost when just before I had to go home, you said, yeah, one last thing.

你说：‘我有个主意。’

And you said, yeah, I have an idea.

我想做一个商品播客。

I want to do a Commodities podcast.

我非常兴奋，因为我也有同样的想法。

And I was ecstatic because I had the same idea.

我已经做了一些准备，你也看到我们俩都因为这个想法而兴奋得在房间里来回走动。

I had already made some preparations and you saw that both of us were kind of jumping around the room about the excitement of the idea.

虽然现在有很多播客，但我们想做的方式却不存在，尤其是凭借我们作为前商品交易员所拥有的信誉。

There are podcasts, but the way we want to do it is not there, especially with the credibility that both of us have as former commodity traders.

我们俩至今仍在从事的工作，以及我们拥有的人脉和希望邀请的嘉宾，都是商品行业真正的关键人物。

The work that both of us still do, and also the network that we have and the people we want to invite for this podcast who are really the movers and shakers in the commodity industry.

所以，是的，我真的很高兴能做成这件事。

So yeah, I I'm I'm really happy to to to get this done.

我也喜欢的是，当你有一个想法，并且有聪明的人一起合作时，你真的能把事情做成。

And what I also like is that you see that when you have an idea and you have smart people, you can actually, you get it done.

你只要去做就行了。

You just do it.

所以，很高兴能在这里。

So yeah, nice to be here.

谢谢。

Thank you.

酷。

Cool.

就在几周内，我们就把这个想法和后续工作都落实了。

Just within a few weeks we've we've set it up the idea and the follow-up.

我们会聊大宗商品，但也许让大家听听你是怎么进入大宗商品领域的会很有意思？

Well, we're going to talk about commodities, but maybe it's nice for everybody to hear, like, why, what is your, how, how has your life started within commodities?

因为当时并没有像法律那样专门研究大宗商品的正规专业。

Because there was not a real, you know, study to study commodities like you have as a lawyer.

那是什么让你走上了大宗商品这条路呢？

So what brought you to the commodities?

是的，完全没错。

Yeah, absolutely.

在八十年代，我看了两部对我影响深远的电影。

So in the eighties I saw two movies that had a big impact on me.

那是埃迪·墨菲主演的《颠倒乾坤》。

It was Trading Places with Eddie Murphy.

埃迪。

Eddie.

那是一部很棒的电影。

It was a fantastic movie.

我当然没有完全理解那里发生的一切，但我感受到了那种激动，交易大厅的氛围确实给我留下了深刻的印象。

I didn't obviously understand everything, what happened over there, but I did understand the excitement and the trading floor was Yeah, it just made a big a good impression on me.

还有《华尔街》，那部电影显然更聚焦于金融市场。

And also Wall Street, that was obviously focused more on financial markets.

但这些八十年代的电影一直留在我的记忆里。

But those movies from the eighties, they stuck with me.

然后，在阿姆斯特丹完成经济学学业后，我申请了嘉吉公司的工作，虽然这家公司作为品牌并不为大众所熟知。

And then after my studies of economics in Amsterdam, I applied for a job in in Cargill, which isn't that well known as a household name.

但在我的第一次面试中，我看到了交易大厅。

But during my first interview, I saw the trading floor.

这让我想起了那些电影。

And that reminded me of those movies.

我感受到了电影中那种同样的兴奋。

And I felt the same excitement that I saw in the movies.

我看到一个巨大的交易大厅，挤满了年轻而充满激情的人。

I just saw a big trading floor with a lot of young people, excited people.

我意识到他们正在做交易。

I got the idea that they were doing deals.

很多屏幕。

Many screens.

是的，很多屏幕，还有热闹的人群。

Yeah, lots of screens and just like a great crowd.

面试进行得很快，但我就是觉得，是的，我想在这里工作。

Now, the interviews, they went by in a rush, but I just felt, yeah, I wanna be here.

这就是我作为实习生开始交易葵花籽油的起点，那是在1997年。

And that was my start as a trainee trading sunflower oil in cargo, and that was in 'ninety seven.

我从事大宗商品贸易已有二十五年，其中十年做谷物和油籽，十五年做可可。

And I've traded commodities for twenty five years in cargo, ten years grains and oilseeds and fifteen years cocoa.

是的，那真是一段非常非常美好的时光。

Yeah, it was a really, really great, great period.

我认为，很多从货舱学校毕业的人后来分散到了大宗商品行业的各个角落。

Then you see a lot of people coming out of the cargo school basically and disperse throughout the world of commodities, I believe.

是的，完全正确。

Yeah, absolutely.

我的意思是，嘉吉公司是个绝佳的学习平台，因为从年轻时起，你就能承担巨大的责任。

I mean, Cargill is a great company to learn because from a young age you get a huge amount of responsibility.

你周围都是优秀的人，所以教育水平非常高。

You're surrounded by really good people, so the level of education is high.

你可以四处旅行。

You can travel around.

你可以经历不同的市场周期，尝试不同的大宗商品。

You can go through different market cycles, try different commodities.

你会成为一个真正全面的商品交易员。

You become a real well rounded commodity trader.

如果你愿意，也可以转向领导岗位，发展自己成为交易台负责人，或者运营一个交易业务线。

If you like, can also move into leadership and develop yourself as a, you know, a desk head or maybe running running a trading franchise.

但说真的，这些都主要是关于我的事。

But look, that's that's a lot about me.

那你呢？

What about you?

因为你的故事也极其有趣。

Because you also have an extremely interesting story.

我的故事实际上是从乳制品商品领域开始的。

Well, my story actually started in the world of dairy commodities.

所以这是完全不同的经历。

So it's a completely different one.

我最初在Interfoods公司工作，那里我交易乳制品商品大约七年。

I started at Interfoods where I traded dairy commodities for roughly seven years.

这纯属巧合。

It was coincidence.

我与老板的儿子在乌得勒支一起学习，我是个搞商业的。

I studied with the son of the owner, Utrecht and I was a commercial guy.

一切就这么自然而然地凑到一起了。

It fell basically all in, in a bit in together.

我开始在那里做交易，那时的规模比现在小得多。

And I started trading there and it was at that stage much smaller than what is now.

我们建立了整个欧洲交易台，而我当时基本上到处奔波。

And we built up the whole European desk and I was actually, I just traveled around.

去寻找新客户，建立新的供应链。

Went find new clients create new supply lines.

是的。

Yeah.

那真是太令人兴奋了。

It was super exciting.

我学到了很多。

And I learned a lot.

从那时起，我意识到大宗商品领域的信息传递方式一直相当传统。

And basically from that onwards, I saw that actually the information flow was always quite old fashioned that we had in the, in, in the world of commodities.

所以，你要么使用昂贵的路透社或彭博终端，要么就使用我早晚阅读的简报。

So basically you had either Reuters or Bloomberg terminal was quite high end and expensive, or you had of newsletters that I was using in the morning and the afternoon.

于是我心想，这完全可以不一样。

So I thought, Hey, that can be different.

于是，我从大宗商品交易转向了大宗商品信息领域，创办了自己的公司Vesper，专注于大宗商品信息的销售。

So from commodity trading, I went to the commodity information and started my own business, Vesper, basically on sale in the world of commodities.

幸运的是，我至今仍能受益于这些年建立的宝贵人脉和结识的众人。

And luckily I can still benefit from all the cool relationships that I build up and all the people that I encountered in, in these years.

但现在，我不再直接交易大宗商品，而是专注于大宗商品信息部分。

But now instead of dealing with commodities, I deal with the commodity information part.

虽然有点转变，但依然非常好。

A bit of a switch, but still, yeah, very, very nice.

是的，谢谢。

Yeah, thank you.

现在我想以此为过渡，因为你知道，我和你也都清楚信息、知识和知识转化教育之所以成为我们创办这个播客的首要原因。

Now I'd like to use that as a bit of a bridge because you know, and I as well, know the importance of information and knowledge and knowledge transformation education is really the number one reason why you and I wanted to start this podcast.

我认为我们俩都意识到，目前关于大宗商品和交易的可信信息并不多。

I think both of us identified that there is not a lot of credible information at the moment about commodities and about trading.

在2021年，那时仍处于疫情期间，所有人都待在家里。

In '21, so that was still in COVID when everyone was sitting at home.

我们经历了金融市场上最疯狂的一次行情波动。

And we went through one of the most insane market moves, financial markets.

那是全面泡沫：大宗商品、股票、数字资产，所有东西都飙升到了天际。

It was the everything bubble, commodities, equities, digital assets, everything went through the roof.

我觉得这完全说不通。

And I thought, this doesn't make any sense.

于是我开始在领英上发文。

And I started writing on LinkedIn.

我还受到了鹿特丹伊拉斯谟商品与贸易中心的邀请。

And I also got approached by the Erasmus Center for Commodity and Trade.

我也被Telgrave联系过，他们想就嘉吉公司以及我的职业生涯和商品交易写一篇专题文章。

I was also approached by Telgrave, who wanted to do an article on Cargill, on my career and commodities trading.

在做这些事情的过程中，我逐渐意识到，目前知识的可获得性存在巨大缺口，尤其是那些不以推销为目的的可信知识。

And along the way, doing all those things, I started to realize, okay, there is a big gap in availability of knowledge and especially credible knowledge, which is not driven by someone willing to sell something.

那段时间，'金融网红'这个词出现了，但很多金融网红都在试图推销产品，这正是他们的商业模式。

And so the word finfluencer came up in that period, but finfluencers, a lot of them, they are trying to sell something and it's their business model.

此外，我一位在嘉吉公司的前同事伊沃·萨尔扬诺维奇出版了一本书。

Now And also, a book was published by one of my former colleagues in Cargill, Ivo Sarjanovic.

这本书几乎涵盖了当时发生的一切。

And this was about pretty much everything that was happening at the time.

它涉及商品、通货膨胀和加密货币。

It was about commodities, inflation, and crypto.

于是我想，终于有一本书是由一位值得信赖的人撰写的——我认识他，知道他为人真诚，他是一位教授，我还在鹿特丹的伊拉斯谟商品与贸易中心讲座上再次见过他，而且他并不需要推销任何东西。

And then I thought, finally, there is a book which is written by someone who is credible, who I know as someone genuine, who is a professor, who I also met again in Rotterdam during the lectures for the Erasmus Commodities and Trade Center, and who doesn't need to sell something.

就是纯粹在做教育的人？

Who's just educating?

那就是我的理念，也是你的理念。

And that was my ID and your ID.

我们需要单独为对大宗商品行业感兴趣的人提供教育。

Separately, we need to educate people who are interested in the commodities industry.

这方面的资源根本不存在，这太荒谬了。

It's not there and it's insane.

我们几乎不卖东西。

We almost don't sell.

我们听起来不再像交易员了，但也就这样了。

We don't sound like traders anymore, but that's all.

但现在你有了鹿特丹大学。

But you've got now the University of Rotterdam.

我认为在美国，摩根大通也有大宗商品相关的课程，但这类课程总是很少。

I think there's in The US, see JP Morgan has a school commodities as well, but it will always quite few.

如果我看到商品行业的人，很多时候是偶然地来到这里，开始买卖或交易大宗商品，进入大型交易公司。

If I see also, you know, people in the commodity industries, a lot of times by coincidence, they arrive and start buying commodities or they start selling or trading them at the big trading houses.

所以我认为，我们完全有机会去教育和帮助人们更好地理解这个世界，同时也能享受其中的乐趣，聆听那些经历过极端市场波动和有趣产品发展的人讲述精彩故事。

So I think there is a, there is definitely a space where we could educate and help people basically understand a bit more about this world, but also have a lot of fun and hear great stories from people that have experienced of course, crazy market moves, interesting product developments.

而且现在，从新冠疫情到苏伊士运河堵塞，整个供应链都被彻底打乱了。

And also now with everything that's happened from COVID to the sewage channel that was blocked, the whole supply chain got ripped apart.

那么，这如何影响了这些公司及其头寸呢？

So how does that, you know, how did that impacted these, these companies, their positions?

所以会有很多有趣的故事陆续展开。

So it will be a lot of fun stories going by.

我相信。

I believe.

是的，确实如此。

Yeah, it's true.

而我们试图做的，是教育必须带来实际成果。

And what we try to do is education needs to lead to something.

它必须能促成更好的决策。

It needs to lead to making better decisions.

一个很好的例子是关于英国以及欧洲能源价格差距的讨论。

And a good example is the discussion about the energy price gap in The UK, but also in Europe.

英国政府之所以垮台，是因为债券市场意识到，英国政府的计划设计不当，会给英国财政带来过大压力。

The UK government collapsed because the bond market realized that what the UK government wanted to do was not properly designed and would create too much stress to the UK government finances.

当欧盟也在能源危机最严重时期提出能源价格上限时，我在领英上写了一篇长文，以商品交易员的身份解释为什么价格上限行不通，以及为什么政府干预市场不会有效。

And when the European Union also proposed an energy price cap due to the the height of the the energy crisis, I wrote a long article on LinkedIn on this topic where I, as a commodity trader, needed to explain why a price cap would not work, and why a government interfering in a market, why it wouldn't work.

这正是我希望能在这档播客中探讨的例子，或许可以邀请一位经验丰富的能源交易员，比如皮埃尔·安德兰这样的专家。

Now, that was an example that I would love to have explained here in a podcast and maybe with an experienced energy trader, Someone like Pierre Underand, for example.

让有公信力的人与听众分享，那些活跃在这些市场中的人是如何思考的。

So credible people who will share with the audience how someone who is active in these markets thinks about it.

他们是如何看待政策的。

How he thinks about policies.

不仅影响他们交易的商品，还影响他们的业务前景。

And not only how it impacts the commodity they trade, but how it impacts their franchise.

在能源方面，是的，能源影响着每个人。

And in terms of energy, yeah, energy impacts everyone.

在那场能源危机期间，

During that energy crisis, a

许多

lot of

公司意识到它们对能源有着巨大的风险敞口，而且没有进行对冲。

companies realized that they had huge exposure to energy and that they hadn't hedged it.

它们开始思考：我们是不是需要制定一个对冲协议？

And they were thinking about shit, do we need to have an hedging protocol?

我认为，这些内容对我们听众来说非常有价值。

So those things, I think, can be of great value to our audience.

我们的听众可以是金融市场的爱好者、初级或高级从业者，也可以是政策制定者，他们能从行业专家和交易员那里了解到这些机制是如何运作的。

So our audience, it can be enthusiasts in the financial markets, can be juniors, seniors, but also policymakers who will hear from specialists, from experts in the trade, how these things work.

是的，我认为这是我们能够提供的一个非常重要的价值。

And yeah, that I think is a great purpose of what we can deliver.

百分之百。

A 100%.

我的意思是，我认为这一点也很有帮助，因为现在市场显然非常关注能源，毕竟每个人都受到了影响。

I mean, I think that this can also help if you see now that the market actually was now looking a lot at energy because of course the exposure that everybody had.

对我来说，这感觉有点像团队的情况。

And I felt for me a bit like the same, like teams.

我的意思是，新冠疫情发生时，没有人有团队，为大公司实施团队简直是个麻烦。

I mean, COVID happened and nobody had teams and implementing teams for big companies was like a hassle.

但突然间，所有人都能在一周内组建起团队，因为别无选择。

And suddenly everybody could implement teams within a week because you had to.

情况也是一样的。

And this was the same.

我们在Vesper也听到了类似的说法。

We, we hear that at Vesper as well.

人们希望了解能源信息，因为天然气价格对干燥塔、粉末生产等至关重要。

People want information on energy because they, you know, gas prices for, for drying towers for, for powder is, is massively important.

所以这一切都产生了影响。

And so it all had impacts.

因此他们需要相关信息，你也看到市场反应有多快。

So they want information that, and you see how quickly then market responds.

所以这也非常有趣。

So that's also, I think very interesting.

如果你回顾一下你在交易方面的经验，毕竟你已经有二十五年了，你见识过很多，听过很多，好的坏的都有。

If you look at a bit of your experience in the trading, because twenty five years, I mean, you've, you've seen a lot, you've heard a lot, good things, bad things.

如果我们能有个水晶球，那当然就可以自己开一家交易公司了，但这种事并不存在。

If we would have a glass ball, I mean then of course you start your own trading company and that doesn't exist.

能跟我讲讲吗？如果你愿意的话，能不能分享两笔你做过的交易，比如一笔成功的，一笔失败的，当时发生了什么？

Tell me a bit about your you know, if you could, you could you tell us about two trades that you've done, like, you know, a good one, a bad one, what happened there?

是的。

Yeah.

带我们一起经历这段历程吧。

And take us along in this journey.

是的。

Yeah.

有一笔交易我永远都不会忘记，通常是因为它一开始根本不是一笔好交易，对吧？

So one of the trades that I will never forget, and that is usually because it never really starts as a good trait, yeah?

你常常能记住的交易，往往是因为你从中吸取了教训。

So traits that you recall often, you have learned something from it.

你曾与团队一起度过艰难时期。

You went through difficult times with a team.

这关乎良好的分析、决心和永不放弃。

It's about, yeah, good analysis, determination and never give up.

但大约七、七年前，在可可市场上，我们对下一年的收成有着与整个行业截然不同的看法，无论是时间点还是规模上。

But what happened about seven, seven yeah, seven, eight years ago in the cocoa market that we had a certain view on the crop, the next year's crop, which was very different in terms of timing and sizing than the rest of the industry.

我们据此进行了布局，但市场却与我们的预期相反。

We were positioned accordingly and the market went against us.

我们当时正努力弄清楚究竟发生了什么。

And we were trying to figure out what was going on.

我们的基本面错了吗？

Were our fundamentals wrong?

还是市场上有人在针对我们？

Or was someone in the market trying to do something against us?

市场对作物的看法与我们不同。

The market had a different view about the crop.

确实，有一个对手持有巨额仓位，我知道那位试图让我们陷入困境的交易员。

And indeed, there was a counterparty with a huge position, and I knew the trader who was trying to, yeah, to put us in a painful position.

但我们有一个出色的交易团队，一些非常聪明的人。

But we had a great trading team, some really smart people.

在经验方面很出色，经验、年龄和性格的完美结合，这对于一个运作良好的交易团队来说很重要，你需要有不同的性格。

Nice in terms of experience, nice combination of experience, age, character, and that is important in a well functioning trading team that you have different characters.

是的？

Yeah?

如果你们所有人都是风险偏好者，那很危险；但如果你全是风险厌恶者，你也什么都做不成。

If you all have like risk takers, that's risky, but if you have people who are risk averse, you're also not gonna achieve anything.

而且你需要有不同的性格。

And you need to have different characters.

所以

So

你会说自己是个冒险者吗？

Would you say you're a risk taker or?

我通常是在事情出错时拉紧急制动的那个人。

I'm usually more the one who is the one who will pull the emergency brake when things go wrong.

是的，我总是雇佣那些比我希望承担更多风险的人。

Yeah, so I've always hired people who wanted to take more risk than me.

当我信任他们时，我会给予他们很大的自由，但我一定会确保我们不会爆仓。

When I trust them, I give them a lot of freedom, But I will make sure that we do not blow up.

所以你

So You

设定了边界

set the boundaries for

是的，所以你知道，我的一贯理念是，这个游戏的重点不是闪耀，而是生存。

the Yeah, so, you know, my philosophy has always been the game is not to shine, but to survive.

这同样也是我作为实物交易部门的交易员所秉持的目标。

And that was my purpose also, being embedded as a trader in a physical franchise.

但你问得正好，因为当时我们的仓位非常大。

But in and and it's good that you ask because our position at the time was very big.

风险很高，我们都知道，交易对手方的仓位也同样巨大。

The stakes were high, and I knew, we knew, that the position of the guy on the other side of the trade was also huge.

长话短说，市场长时间朝不利于我们的方向运行，我们反复权衡该如何应对。

Now, long story short, the market went against us for a long time, and we had lots of considerations what to do about it.

但你知道，我们非常坚定。

But, you know, we were very convicted.

在接近收获期的过程中，我们对市场的实物影响和基本面变得更加确信。

And along the way, when we when we came closer to the harvest, we became more convicted in the physical consequences or the fundamentals of the market.

然后，在一个非常非常短的时间内，市场突然逆转，是的，这对我们的交易来说是一次非常成功的操作。

And then all of a sudden in a very, very short period, the market turned and it's Yeah, it was for us a very successful trade.

对于对手方来说，这是一笔令人震惊的交易，导致了巨大亏损，甚至有人更换了交易团队。

And for the counterparty, it was really a shocking, shocking trade, which led to large losses some people changes in their training team.

当我们的头寸到期，我们开始在期货市场上交易时，我们感到极度放松，因为这是一段漫长而充满压力与疑虑的时期，我们像战友一样紧紧团结在一起。

And when our position expired and we were trading on the futures market, we were extremely relieved because this was a very long period of intensity and doubt and, you know, sticking together as a team like comrades.

然后我们去了阿姆斯特丹城里，在霍珀咖啡馆，我们四个人紧紧相拥。

And then we went into town in Amsterdam and we were there with the four of us at Cafe Hopper and we were hugging each other.

那一刻我永远都不会忘记，因为那是一段漫长的日子，我们必须彼此依靠，却不知道结局会如何。

And that moment I will never forget because it's like such a long period where you had to stuck together and where you didn't know how it would end up well.

显然，因为我们操作着这个头寸，公司里的每个人都知道我们在做这笔交易。

And obviously, because we were running the position, everyone knew in the company that we were running this position.

每个人都兴奋不已。

Everybody's psyched.

每个人都做出了选择。

Everybody's choice.

你觉得这有点运气成分吗？

You think it's a bit of luck?

我认为这次不是运气。

I think this one wasn't luck.

我认为我们很幸运，因为我们的基本面分析团队——帮助我们构建仓位的研究团队——实力非常强大。

I think we were fortunate that our fundamental analysis, so the research team that helped us building the position was extremely strong.

因此，我们对他们所观察到的市场情况充满信心。

So our confidence in what they saw on the fields was really high.

这也是许多非基本面交易者所不理解的：对基本面的坚定信念能让你在市场动荡中坚持下来。

So and that is also what many people who are not fundamental traders, what what what they don't understand, conviction in fundamentals helps you really sweat out turbulence.

如果你作为一名交易员，完全依赖技术分析、图表解读或订单流等因素，那么在面对市场动荡时要撑住就困难得多。

And if you are a trader and you are fully dependent on technicalities, chart reading, for example, or order flow, whatever, it's much less easy to sweat out turbulence.

当你知道你的基本面研究在不同市场周期和作物周期中都有出色表现时，你知道基本面最终一定会显现出来。

When you when you know that your fundamental research has a great track record, yeah, through different market cycles and crop cycles, when you know that, you know that the fundamentals eventually will play out.

但尤其是在可可市场上，这种情况总是需要很长时间。

But especially in cocoa, it always takes a long time.

是的。

Yeah.

因此，基于基本面情况入场交易总是非常痛苦，因为通常需要一段时间才能真正显现效果。

So therefore, it's always so so painful to put on a trade basis of fundamental situation knowing that it usually takes some time to actually play out.

因此，你需要反复回到起点，挑战每个人的观点，并不断思考：如果我们错了怎么办？

And therefore you need to go back to the drawing board several times and challenge everyone and constantly also think, so what if we are wrong?

当然，我们也看到团队内部有时会有不同的意见，对吧？

And that's of course what we also saw is that people sometimes have different opinions within the team, right?

所以，我的经理和我观点不同，我坚信应该做多，而我的经理却说绝对不行，因为有这样那样的理由，所以我们之间有过争论和讨论。

So that my manager, I was convinced about taking a long position and my manager said, no way, we're not going to do this because there's this reason, so you had arguments and you had discussions.

所以，是的，这并不容易，那

So, yeah, it's not an easy The

在这种情况下，一个好处是我们知道对手是谁。

good thing in this case also was we knew who we had against us.

我们知道是谁在和我们对抗。

We knew who it was.

我们知道是哪家公司。

We knew the company.

我们了解他们的风格。

We knew their style.

是的？

Yeah?

在此过程中，我们发现他们过度交易，仓位过大，最终只能爆仓。

Along the way, we saw that they were overtrading, that their position was too big, and that they could only blow up.

结果确实如此。

And that is what happened.

是的？

Yeah?

因此，我认为这也是可可市场的一个优势——这是一个小众市场，你了解大多数参与者，知道他们的个人情况和性格。

So that's also, I think, the the advantage of of a cocoa market, which is a niche market, that you know most of the players, you know the individuals, you know their characters.

是的？

Yeah?

所以你问我是哪种交易员？

So your question about what type of trader are you?

是的，我认识这个人。

Yeah, I knew this guy.

他会把全部家当都押上，而他确实这么做了。

He would bet the house, which he did.

所以现在说说其中一笔糟糕的交易。

So now one of the bad trades.

而且要注意，人们需要明白的是，交易员会做出很多笔糟糕的交易。

And look, also what people need to understand is traders make a lot of bad trades.

是吗？

Yeah?

如果你有60%的时间是对的，那就已经相当不错了。

If you are right 60% of the time, you do fairly well.

实际上，我记不起来有多少种糟糕的交易习惯。

There are actually not that many bad traits that I recall.

那么，为什么会这样呢？

Now, why is that?

没人相信这一点。

Nobody believes this.

不，不，不。

No, no, no.

但为什么会这样？

But why is that?

因为你不可能让一个坏习惯长期影响你。

Because you can't have a bad trait impact you for long.

是的，你需要在心理上做好准备，这样当你出现坏习惯时，就能及时退出并继续前进。

Yeah, you need to mentally condition yourself so that when you have a bad trait, you get out and you move forward.

关掉它。

Close it.

是的。

Yeah.

如果我能想起很多这样的坏习惯，比如我刚才给你举的那个好交易例子中所伴随的情绪，那将是一个非常糟糕的信号，对吧？

And if there would be many bad traits that I would recall, like the emotions that I had with that example that I gave you now of a good trade, it would be a very bad signal, yeah?

因为当你情感上投入时，这并不是交易员应该做的。

Because when you get emotionally attached, that's not what you wanna do as a trader.

这是最糟糕的事情。

That's the worst thing.

是吗？

Yeah?

你不应该把任何事情都当作个人攻击。

You should never take things personally.

市场并不知道你持有什么仓位。

The market doesn't know what position you have.

这与个人无关。

There is nothing personal about it.

所以，一个交易失败的好例子是，我们原本以为……结果失败了。

So, But a good example of a trade that went bust is we had a well, it went bust.

我的意思是，行情变差了，但我们及时退出了，当时我们对纽约可可和伦敦可可之间的价差套利有一个看法。

I mean, it went bad and we got out on time, but we had a view on arbitrage, which is basically relative value between New York cocoa and London cocoa.

我们对纽约期货市场的库存积累有一个判断。

And we had an idea about the stock accumulation in in the New York futures market.

我们在库存积累上是对的，但在投机头寸上完全错了，也就是说，有投机对冲基金的订单流，而我们忽略了这一点。

We were right on the stock accumulation, but we were totally wrong on the spec positioning, meaning there was order flow from speculative hedge funds and we had overlooked that.

所以我们在基本面判断上是对的，但在订单流上错了。

So we were right on the fundamentals, but we were wrong on the order flow.

这在可可市场中也很典型，但对每个交易员都很重要。

And that is also something typical in the cocoa market, but important for every trader.

你需要对什么是基本面、它何时在市场中体现，以及什么是订单流之类的东西保持开放的心态。

You need to have an open mind about what is fundamental, when does it play out in the market and what is, you know, something like order flow.

订单流可能由与基础商品无关的因素驱动。

And order flow can be driven by something not related to the underlying commodity.

它可能是外汇。

It can be foreign exchange.

它可能是宏观环境。

It can be a macro environment.

它可以是任何东西，但你始终需要对基本面之外的其他因素保持开放态度。

It can be anything, but you always need to be open for other elements than the fundamentals.

那么发生了什么？

So what happened?

是的，从基本面来看我们是对的，但对市场判断错了。

Yeah, fundamentally we were right, but we got the market wrong.

不过，我们及时退出了，没有遇到太多问题。

Now, but we got out without too many issues.

但我为什么还记得这件事？

But why do I recall it?

因为我们认为基本面情况非常强劲。

Because we thought that the fundamental case was extremely strong.

我记得在交易台上讨论时，我们都对这一特点感到兴奋。

And I recall that on the desk when we were discussing it, we were all excited about that trait.

是的，我们认为这是一个绝佳的特点，一个很好的机会，但结果却成了一个糟糕的特点。

Yeah, we thought it was a fantastic trait, a great opportunity, but it turned out a great trait.

我经常回忆起交易中与团队的互动、那些有趣的人物、特立独行的人，就像我提到的电影里那样，你会想起艾迪·墨菲、阿克塞尔罗德、查理·辛、迈克尔·道格拉斯。

And that is what do I often recall from trading is the interaction with the team, the interesting characters, the mavericks, and just like the movies I discussed, you recall Eddie Murphy and then Aykroyd, and Charlie Sheen, Michael Douglas.

所以作为一名交易员，在一个性格鲜明的团队中工作是很棒的。

And so as a trader, it is nice to work in a team with flamboyant characters.

我想你也一定有同样的回忆。

I think you must recall that as well.

当然。

For sure.

我觉得我如此喜欢商品交易的原因是，如果我现在拿它和比特币以及所有这些产品相比，你知道，当我刚开始接触比特币时，我的账户价格上下剧烈波动，我紧张得要命。

And I think that what I liked about commodities so much is that if I compare it now to the Bitcoins and all, you know, all these products that, you know, if you I started with some Bitcoins, I got so nervous when I had my Bitcoin accounts and just went up and down, up and down.

我一整天都盯着看。

I was looking at the whole day.

我当时想，好吧，我得停下来了。

I was like, okay, you know, I need, I need to stop now.

而我如此喜欢商品交易的原因是，它是实实在在的，对吧？

And what I like about commodities so much, it's, it's physical, right?

所以是港口里的集装箱，比如鹿特丹的，这让人感觉非常真实。

So it's the containers in the harbor and Rotterdam and in it, it, it makes it so tangible.

这让它变得很有吸引力。

It makes it sexy.

它也成为了食品链的一部分。

It makes it also part of the food chain.

我是说，食品类大宗商品。

I mean, the food commodities.

我是说，这是我们所做事情的一部分。

I mean, it's part of, of what we do.

你可以说有些东西是奢侈品之类的，但不是，所有这些大宗商品——从谷物到油类、可可、糖、乳制品——通常都是我们基本食物需求的一部分。

And, you know, you can say that some things are luxury products and stuff like that, but no, all these commodities from grains to oils, to cocoa, sugar, the dairy, it all part of our basic food needs often.

所以我真的很喜欢，它是一种持续流动的产品。

So I really liked that it's, it's a continuous product that will keep on flowing.

这正是我特别喜欢它的原因。

And that's what I really like about it.

这也具有一个物理层面。

That's also has a physical element to it.

当然，你还做了对冲等金融操作。

And of course you have done the financial for the hedging, etcetera.

我认为这非常棒，尤其是在对冲方面，为使用它增添了额外的价值。

What I think is fantastic and, you know, for the hedging and gives an extra element to using it.

是的，完全正确。

Yeah, absolutely.

你刚才提到比特币，最近出了一本新书。

And what you just said about Bitcoin, there is a new book just out now.

这本书叫《数字上涨》。

It's called Number Go Up.

对我来说，这很好地总结了比特币是什么。

For me, that's a good recap of what it is.

人们看到一个数字，就希望它上涨。

People look at a number and they hope the number goes up.

我多次试图解释的是，当你谈论比特币是否是商品时，商品在经济生态系统中是有其用途的。

And what I've tried to explain many times is that also when you talk about what Bitcoin and is it a commodity, yes or no, a commodity has a purpose in an economic ecosystem.

我、你在Interfood的工作，以及你现在经营公司的工作，都是关于理解屏幕上的价格与价值之间的区别。

And my job and your job in Interfood and your job now running the company, information about what is the difference between the price you see on the screen and the value.

每个交易员的工作都是做出判断。

And the job of every trader is making a call.

价格是我看到屏幕上的数字。

The price is what I see on the screen.

价值是什么？

What is the value?

它是被高估了还是被低估了？

Is it overvalued or undervalued?

这决定了你的交易决策。

And that determines your trade.

但你怎么知道呢？

But how do you know?

因为你要做的，是把屏幕上那个数字转化为整个供应链——从原材料到你能在超市买到的产品，举个例子。

Well, because what you do is you translate that number on the screen into the whole supply chain from raw material down to a product that you buy in a supermarket, as an example.

你得分析经济因素，然后将其转化为供需关系。

You go through the economics and then you translate that into an S and D, supply and demand.

我也多次在领英上解释过，得出的供需数字永远不会真正实现，因为价格会阻止它发生。

And what I've explained many times as well on LinkedIn, for example, is that the S and D number that comes out will never materialize because the price will prevent it.

价格会确保需求被配给或刺激，同样地，对于

The price will make sure that demand will be rationed or stimulated, and the same goes I for

我还没在比特币中看到过真正的供需关系。

haven't seen an S and D yet in Bitcoins.

这非常困难。

Well, it's very difficult.

虽然别人说你可以看代码，但咱们就不深入了。

Although others say you can look at the code, but let's not go into that.

我喜欢商品的地方在于，你能实际看到经济运作，并对价格如何影响当前的供需做出相当准确的预测，而这正是交易员的机会所在。

What I like about commodities is that you can actually see the economics and make a fairly good prediction of what price will do to the S and D now, and that makes the trading opportunity for traders.

这本质上是你一天中大部分时间都在做的事情：分析你看到的屏幕价格如何转化为产地的生产经济和消费者端的需求经济。

That is in essence a large part of your day that you're trying to analyze how the price that you see on the screen translates into production economics in origin and demand economics where the consumer is.

但你有没有觉得，你已经在商品交易行业干了二十五年，这行变化大吗？

But do you then think that if you look at, you know, you've been twenty five years in commodity trading, has it changed a lot?

基本上，这份工作从最初那个人开始，到现在你雇了新人，还是同一个人在做吗？因为基本面没变？

Basically the job is that person that started that, and you hire the new guy now, is it still the same person because of the fundamentals?

不，我认为交易的基本面是一样的。

No, I think, look, the fundamentals of trading, they are the same.

但变化的是，互联网在很大程度上推动了数据的获取，还有技术的进步。

But what has changed is access to data that's driven by the Internet to a large extent, also technology.

所以你现在获取信息的方式不同了。

So the way you have access to information now.

但我认为，很多公司面临的难题是如何将数据转化为可操作的交易信息。

But look, I think what a lot of companies struggle with is to translate data into actionable tradable information.

是的？

Yeah?

所以现在大多数年轻交易员都会编程。

So nowadays you have young traders, most of them, they can code.

他们能用Python做事情，也能构建工具，比如Vesper，现在借助人工智能，你可以做出关于价格的可信预测。

They can do things in Python and they But can build things look at also at Vesper, right, where you have the ability now with AI to make credible predictions about price.

这在当时是可用的

That available when

他这么做的时候。

he does that.

在你看来，速度有变化吗？

And does the speed change in your view?

在买卖、调整仓位时，你需要的速度有变化吗？

Does the speed change for how quick you need to be changing positions, buying, selling?

我认为交易员和跨国公司、比如快消品公司的采购人员，或者大型生产商的销售代表之间也存在差异。

I think also there's a difference between the traders and let's say a buyer at a multinational, you know, an FMCG company or the sales person selling commodities at one of the big producers.

我认为这三类人之间确实存在差异。

There is difference, I think, in these three categories of people, basically.

是的，完全正确。

Yeah, absolutely.

事实上，你和我之前在LinkedIn上讨论过这个话题。

And that's a topic that in fact you and I, we discussed online on LinkedIn.

商品市场中有各种不同层次的参与者。

You have all kinds of different participants in the commodity markets with different levels of sophistication.

你这么一说，我觉得这和二十年前其实没什么不同，因为这关乎人性。

Now you say it, I don't think it's actually much different than say twenty years ago because it's human behavior.

现在有一个很贴切的说法来形容这一点。

Now, there is a nice expression about that.

历史不会重演，但总是押韵。

History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes.

这基本上意味着，事情不会完全一模一样地发生，但看起来很相似。

That's basically says that nothing happens for the exact same thing, but it looks a bit like it.

还有另一句话说：历史不会重演，但人类会。

And the other thing is history doesn't repeat, but men does.

这句话出自伏尔泰。

That is from Voltaire.

我们的市场由人类行为驱动，而人类行为在很大程度上是由恐惧和贪婪驱动的。

Our markets are driven by human behavior, and human behavior is driven by fear and greed to a large extent.

唯一不同的是，现在人们能够获取更多的信息。

The only thing is people have now much more information access.

那么，以我在可可行业中的经历为例，这种变化带来了什么影响呢？

Now, what was the impact on that, for example, that I have experienced in the cocoa industry?

对冲基金最初主要是由人操作的，后来逐渐转变为你们所说的系统性对冲基金。

Hedge funds were in the beginning mostly humans, and they moved into becoming what you call systematic hedge funds.

也就是由计算机模型发出买卖信号。

So computer models giving, buying, and selling signals.

有时仍需人类来执行交易，但如今也已完全自动化。

Sometimes the human beings who needed to execute it, but nowadays also fully automatic.

因此是算法执行与交易。

So algorithmic execution and trading.