第二集：伊沃·萨尔扬诺维奇

我认为，有时我们会低估个人相对于团队的重要性。

And I think that sometimes we underestimate the importance of the individual against the team.

我认为，如今团队变得越来越重要。

And I think teams today are becoming more and more important.

但这并不意味着个人就不重要了。

Not to the extreme that the individual doesn't count.

但我认为他们的重要性可能会稍微降低一些。

But I think they will probably count a bit less.

伊沃，我想就这一点说几点看法。

I'd like to say a couple of things about that, Ivo.

有趣的是，你说得不那么教条。

Look, it's interesting that you say not dogmatic.

我认同这一点。

I recognise that.

但与此同时，你也需要在自信和这种态度之间取得平衡。

But at the same time you also need to balance it versus having confidence.

因为事实上，市场会不断提醒你不要固执己见。

Because in fact, the market will tell you constantly not to be dogmatic.

对。

Right.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，至少以我的经验来看，你的观点很少能立即正确或一直正确。

What I mean by that, it's rare, at least in my experience, that your position is immediately right or is constantly right.

因此，你总是面临相反的意见。

So, you're constantly facing opposing opinions.

可能是市场告诉你，你看到你的损益表是红色的。

It can be the market that tells you and you see that your P and L is red.

市场告诉你，你错了。

The market tells you you're wrong.

所以市场不断提醒你：不要固执，要灵活。

So the market is constantly telling you, okay, not to be dogmatic and be flexible.

但通常来说，如果你有基本面分析，利润来自于交易你的长期基本面计划。

But often the money is if you have a fundamental analysis, the money is in trading your longer term fundamental game plan.

所以我同意不要固执己见，因为你需要始终保持开放和好奇的态度。

So I agree with not being dogmatic in the sense that you need to always be open and curious.

事实上，你所说的非常关键：当你持有一个仓位时，要养成更关注那些证实你观点的信息的习惯。

And indeed, what you said is really strong that when you're in a position, have the habit to be more receptive to the things that are confirming your position.

有时候很奇怪，当你在某一天被止损出局时，而你当初进入这个仓位时是有坚定信念的。

And sometimes it's strange that when you're stopped out on a day, On the same day, so you came in with conviction, you're stopped out.

但在同一天，你却对各种其他新闻变得格外敏感。

And then on the same day, you are receptive for all kinds of other news.

这是一种心理现象，对吧？

It's a mental thing, right?

但随着时间推移，你会学会在不固执和保持自信、信任你的基本面判断之间取得平衡。

But you learn to deal over time between balancing between being not dogmatic and being confident and having trust in your fundamental view.

我想你刚才提到了成功公司的标准之类的问题？

And I think you said what are successful companies and whatnot?

我认为这在一定程度上取决于你对基本面分析的信心，这种信心能让你坚持一个头寸长达三个月。首先，当你极度依赖市场情绪，交易更多地基于当天或当周的氛围时，这在很大程度上是噪音。

I think here it depends a bit on the confidence that you have in your fundamental analytics, which enables you to sweat out a position to have a position for three months, First is when you are really dependent on sentiment and you trade more the vibe of the day, of the week, which to a large extent is noise.

这通常是噪音。

It's very often is noise.

无论是谈论金融市场，还是人们试图预测股票市场本周甚至今天会如何走势。

Whether you talk about financial markets and where people try to forecast what the stock market is going to do this week or even today.

这也是为什么日内交易者常常不成功的原因，因为这些都是噪音。

And that is also a reason why day traders are often not successful because it's noise.

所以我认为

And so I think

但你们公司的规模是否也有影响？比如，你所能建立的头寸规模，或者说你能产生的影响——像嘉吉这样的大交易商，他们建仓时能产生巨大影响，而较小或中等规模的交易者则不行，对吧？

But is it also the size of your company if you know if the positions you can take I mean the impact that you can have mean if a big trader like a Cargill whatever they can have a massive impact taking a position than let's say a smaller one or one to medium size, right?

所以这也是你的

So it's also your

但在我看来，价格始终反映基本面价值，这是一个很大的争议点。

But prices in my mind and this is a big debate, they always reflect fundamental values.

从一个均衡点到另一个均衡点之间可能存在一些扭曲，但从长期来看，价格总会回归到基本面价值。

You can have some distortions in the way from one equilibrium point to the other, but in the long term you always go to the fundamental value.

因此，如果你真正掌握了基本面，就会形成非常坚定的信念。

So if you really master the fundamentals, you develop very strong conviction.

现在回到交易能力的问题上，我认为优秀的交易员是那些能更好地化解某些悖论的人。

Now coming back to the abilities of the trade, I think good traders are those who resolve some paradox better than others.

例如，我认为马丁似乎提到了信心与开放心态之间的张力或权衡。

So for example, I think Martijn was somehow making reference to the tension or trade off you have between confidence and being open minded.

这是一个方面。

So this is one.

你是否具有韧性，还是会轻易放弃？

Are you resilient or do you give up?

有些交易员能比其他人更好地化解这种悖论。

So some trades will resolve that paradox better than others.

是的。

Yeah.

然后有些人知道，你必须实施控制，但另一方面，也需要有自由思考的空间。

Then you have people who they know that you have to enforce controls, but on the other hand, need to be free to think.

那么，你如何解决这个悖论呢？

So how do you resolve that paradox?

你每天在工作中可能会面对大约十个不同的悖论。

And you have a menu of maybe 10 different paradox that you face daily in your work.

而那些更能解决这些悖论的人，将成为最优秀的交易员。

And those who resolve those paradox better are going to be the best traders.

我认为，你不可能通过读书来学会做交易。

Now, I don't think you can learn to be a trader reading a book.

人们，是的，有时大学里的学生会问我：‘我该读什么书才能成为交易员？’

People, yeah, sometimes the students at university, they ask me, okay, what can I read to be a trader?

我说：‘如果你想了解交易员在做什么，就读这本书。’

And I said, well, if you want to know what a trader is doing, read this book.

但光读这本书并不会让你成为交易员。

But that is not going to make you a trader.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，我觉得你不能去问梅西。

So, like, I don't think you can ask Messi.

好的。

Okay.

怎么踢点球？

How to kick a penalty?

好的。

Okay.

是的。

Yeah.

他可能会告诉你一些踢点球的技巧，但你光读书是学不会踢球的。

He will maybe tell you a bit about how to kick a penalty, but you won't learn to be messy reading a book.

尤其是你作为阿根廷人，当然了。

Especially when you as an Argentina, of course.

对。

Right.

所以这是一个关于如何成功的很好的例子。

So that's a good example of of how to succeed.

但我认为，那些能够更好地解决这一系列悖论的交易员是

But I think those traders who can resolve this list of paradox better than others are the

最强的交易员。

the strongest traders.

但难道不也是团队的作用吗？

But isn't it also the team?

我的意思是，你也一直在管理团队。

I mean, you've been you've been managing teams as well.

对吧？

Right?

而且你需要一个多元化的交易者群体。

And you need a diverse pool of of trades.

对吧？

Right?

而且你希望他们也能进行讨论，持有不同观点，互相挑战。

And you want them to also have that discussion, have different views, challenge each other.

你是不是也创造了这样的环境，能够

Is that what you also basically created that environment that could

发生吗？

happen there?

我认为这是关键。

I think that's key.

拥有一个优秀的团队对于成功至关重要。

Think to have a good team is super important to succeed.

我认为在日内瓦，我们非常幸运地拥有出色的团队，非常多元化。

And I think in Geneva, we were very lucky to have great teams, very diverse.

从地理角度来看，例如，我不记得具体数字了，但可能那里有50个不同的国籍，甚至更多。

So from a geographical point of view, for example, I don't remember the number, but probably we are 50 different nationalities there or even more.

所以想象一下，每当出现冲突或问题时，你都可以去找真正的专家沟通。

So just imagine whenever there is a conflict or something, you can go and speak with people who are real experts.

有一段时间，我是阿根廷危机方面的专家。

So, a while I was the expert in the Argentine mess.

好吧，没问题。

Okay, fine.

后来，人们厌倦了阿根廷危机，我关于阿根廷危机的比较优势也就下降了。

Then people got tired of the Argentine mess and then my, let's say, competitive advantage about Argentina mess is declined.

好吧。

Okay.

但在那段时间里非常重要，因为阿根廷在农产品市场中是如此重要的角色，早上就能提前知道会发生什么很有用。

But during a period that was very important because Argentina is such a big player in agricultural markets that knowing early in the morning what was going to happen was useful.

但你还拥有来自许多不同维度和职业的多样性。

But then you have also diversity from many different dimensions, professions.

我们是一群在职业上几乎毫无共同点的人组成的组合。

So we were a combination of people who have nothing in common really in terms of professions.

我们是从Materpacti被聘用的，当时我们都非常开放。

We were hired from materpacti we were very open minded.

所以今天，好吧，可能也需要更多的性别多样性。

And so today, okay, probably there is a need for more gender as well.

但当你将所有不同的维度结合起来时，结果就会非常丰富。

But when you combine all the different dimensions it becomes a very rich outcome.

这是一次很棒的学习体验。

And it's a great learning experience.

所以，如果你拥有正确的心态，愿意学习，而不是认为你去那里只是为了发言和被听见，我认为这会产生巨大的不同。

So if you have the right mindset in terms of being open to learn and not to think that you go there just to speak and to be heard, I think that makes a hell of a difference.

最后，你是让交易员做决定，还是你自己也能决定你要做什么？

At the end, did you let the traders make the decisions or could you could you make a decision on what you would do basically?

当我管理的时候？

When I was managing it?

是的。

Yeah.

不，我总是喜欢授权。

No, I think I always like to delegate.

当然，你也需要判断身边的人是否合适。

And of course you need to also detect if you have the right people around you.

对我来说，一个重要的考验总是六个月后会发生什么。

So for me, a big test was always what happened after six months.

因为我总是喜欢教学。

Because I always like to teach.

公司经常要求我更换助手。

The company was asking me to change my assistant very oftenly.

这有点困难，因为你必须一直不停地教学。

Which is a bit difficult because you are forced to be teaching all the time.

但另一方面，你会觉得自己在为他人带来积极的影响。

But on other hand, you feel that you are doing something positive for the rest.

六个月后，我认为我就能判断出谁足够优秀。

And after six months, I think I was able to detect if someone was good enough.

唯一的例外是亚历克斯·安费利奥，他在十五天后我就意识到他比我强得多。

The only exception was Alex Anfelio, who after fifteen days I realised he was much better than me.

这就是为什么今天他主要负责日内瓦的业务。

And this is why today he's running basically the business in Geneva.

但如果六个月后你发现人们还没有成长起来，那就说明有问题了。

But if in six months you feel that people are not taking off, okay, there is a problem.

对于这样的人，你不能把太多工作 delegated 给其他人。

So, those people you cannot delegate enough to others.

你应该尽可能多地授权，以便让他们成长。

You can you should delegate as much as you can in order to let them grow.

是的。

Yeah.

你能定义一下‘成长起来’是什么意思吗？

Can you define taking off?

那么，你是如何衡量这一点的？

So, is your how do you measure that?

人们开始自己意识到其中的机会。

People started realizing about the opportunities themselves.

他们开始意识到不同职位的风险与回报。

They started realizing about the risk and reward of different positions.

对我来说，一个测试就是假期。

One test for me were holidays.

比如，当我去度假时，别人要求我不再关注事务，但他比我更强势，最终我仍然在关注当天发生的事情。

So, example, when I was going on holidays, I was asked not to follow things, but he was stronger than me, I was still following at the end of the day what was happening.

如果当时作为我助手的交易员所做的事与我会做的相似，这会让我非常有信心。

And if the trader who was my assistant at that moment was doing something similar to what I would have done, that gave me a lot of confidence.

如果突然我发现仓位与我会做的完全相反，这就会让我有些担忧。

If suddenly I was finding that the position were completely the opposite of what I would have done, that was creating a bit of concerns.

为什么？

Why?

因为那样你就意味着你做的总是对的。

Because then you say what you do is always right.

可能不会，但如果有人做了一些你无法理解的事情，就很难建立信心。

Probably not, but it's difficult to gain confidence if someone is doing things you cannot rationalize.

但在这种情况下，你会怎么做呢？

But then what would you do in that case?

你会给他们打电话，问他们：嘿，你为什么这么做？

You would give them a call and ask them, hey, why have you done that?

是的，当然。

Yeah, sure.

然后你可能会发现，这样做是有充分理由的。

And then maybe you learn that there's a good reason for that.

所以我并不总期望自己是对的，但我觉得这是不可避免的。

So I don't expect always to be right, but I think it's unavoidable.

你从一个对事物有自己看法的立场开始。

You start from a position where you have an opinion about things.

因此，所谓客观和中立，并不是没有观点，而是学会接受自己是错的。

And so, think to be objective and neutral is not to have opinion, it's to learn to be told that you are wrong.

所以，我认为你总是从一个观点出发。

So, I think you always start with an opinion.

也许我以前非常固执己见，但我认为，如果你能意识到自己错了，那已经是一个很大的进步了。

Maybe I was very opinionated, but I think if you can learn that you were wrong, that's already a big step forward.

是的。

Yeah.

而且，就像你提到的‘授权’这个词。

And there's also, like you mentioned the word delegation.

我认为大多数人，无论是否从事交易，但在交易中，都不喜欢微观管理者。

I think most people, whether it's trading or not, but also in trading, they don't like micromanagers.

因为他们喜欢独立自由地工作。

Because they like to operate independently and freely.

同时，质量行业并不为人所熟知，像我们两个人，实际上都是从零开始的。

At the same time, the quality industry is not well known and people like Well, both of us, in fact, we started with no knowledge.

那么，你如何在给予自由操作的空间、迅速授权——因为你面对的是聪明人——和防止他们犯下严重错误之间取得平衡呢？

So how do you balance between giving freedom to operate, delegate fairly quickly because you have to deal with intelligent people, versus protecting them that they don't make really big mistakes.

是的，我认为这个问题没有非黑即白的答案。

Yeah, I don't think there is a black and white answer for that.

我觉得你所采取的这种框架非常好。

I think it's a very good frame what you are doing.

我认为这可能是管理者必须理清的悖论之一。

And I think it's probably one of the paradoxes that you have to sort out as a manager.

对。

Yeah.

在朝一个方向或另一个方向之间，可能存在着非常微妙的平衡状态。

There is maybe a very thin balance equilibrium between going in one direction or the other.

而且对于每个人来说，可能也没有一个统一的答案。

And probably there is no also answer for every single person.

对不同的人需要采取不同的方法。

There are different approaches to different people.

有些人可能需要你更贴近他们，而其他人则不需要。

Some people may need that you are closer to them more than others.

其他人可能更早享受自由，我认为关键在于你不能用同样的方式对待所有人。

Others may enjoy freedom earlier than other people and I think the secret is for you not to deal with all of them with the same approach.

你认为这是否也与你曾涉足不同商品有关？比如糖和油脂。

And do you think it's also to add on that because you've been in different commodities right so you've seen like sugar and oils.

你会建议刚进入这个行业的人不要只专注于一种商品并长期从事吗？

Would you recommend to people that start in this industry to say well don't stick to one commodity and do that for many years?

是的，我会建议他们换一换。

Yeah I would recommend them to change.

对，这并不意味着他们必须在30种不同的商品之间轮换，因为最终他们可能对任何东西都一无所知。

Yeah it doesn't mean that they have to change if they are thirty years around 30 different commodities because at the end of the day they may not know anything about nothing.

但我还是会建议他们换一换。

But I would recommend them to change.

为什么？

Why?

因为我认为，首先，你能把其他商品的经验带到新领域，并可能利用这些经验发现那些长期在相似框架内交易的人看不到的新机会。

Because I think you first of all, you bring the experience of other commodities to a new world and you can maybe use that experience to discover new opportunities that people who are used to trade things with a similar frame they don't see.

我认为这能让你保持活力和积极。

Then I think it keeps you alive and active.

我认为我们这个行业的一个风险是变得过于专注于非常小的领域。

I think one of the risk of our business is to become hyper specialized in a very small thing.

例如，我总是说，我这一生中最享受的事情之一就是能思考各种不同的事情。

For example, I always say one of the things I enjoy the most about this stage of my life is that I can think about a lot of different things.

所以我曾经是大豆方面的专家，后来我对糖也有了了解，虽然我不认为自己在糖这方面成为过像大豆那样的专家，但我对糖是有所了解的。

So I was an expert in soybeans for a while, then I became knowledgeable because I don't think I ever became an expert in sugar, like in soybeans, but I was knowledgeable about sugar.

现在我能思考这么多不同的事情，这让我大脑非常振奋。

And now I can think about so many different things that is very energizing for my brain.

所以，如果我想象自己三十年都做同一种商品，那一定很疲惫、很无聊，我想。

And so, if I imagine doing thirty years the same commodity should be tiring and boring, I guess.

因此，我总是建议人们尝试改变。

So, I always recommend people to try to change.

而不容易的是从一个品类家族转向另一个品类家族。

And what is not that easy is to change from one family to the other.

大宗商品大致分为三大类。

There are roughly three big families in commodities.

你有能源、金属和农产品。

You have energy, you have metals and you have agris.

在农产品中，我们又分为谷物、油籽和软商品。

And in agris, we have a division between grains and oilseeds and softs.

所以，像马丁那样从谷物和油籽转向软商品并不容易，而从农产品转向能源就更难了。

So, sometimes it's not that easy to do what Martijn did, which is to go from grains and oilseeds to soft and even more difficult to go from agris to energy.

但如果可能的话，我真的很推荐这样做。

But if that would be possible, I will really recommend it.

在当今能源转型的时代，我认为这将带来许多绝佳的机会。

At these days with energy transition, I think that will open a lot of great opportunities.

但你认为在过去，我们一直认为人际关系在这个行业中非常重要吗？

But do you think in the past, we always saw that relationships were very important in this whole industry.

但我现在也看到一些贸易公司，人际关系的重要性正在逐渐降低，因为我觉得人们至少不再那么重视这种关系，或者他们希望以不同的方式沟通。

But I see also now trading companies where the relationship actually becomes less and less important also because I see that people at least give less value to that relationship or they want to communicate in a different way.

对吧？

Right?

他们会在电脑上安装WhatsApp，直接说给我最好的报价或最好的买价，通过WhatsApp沟通；而我还记得，过去你每周联系某些人的时间甚至比朋友还多，所以

They install WhatsApp on their computer and they just say give me the best offer or give me the best bid and communicate via WhatsApp whereas I also recall where you spoke to some people more often on a week than than your friends for example so

我认为这很大程度上取决于你的关注重点，比如简单来说，如果你专注于衍生品交易。

I think it depend very much on what you are focusing on I think if you are focusing more on let's say in the derivatives to make it simple.

那么关系可能就没那么重要了。

Relationships are probably less important.

但如果你更关注实物现货，我认为关系就极其重要，因为我会提供你交易所需的流动性，除非你拥有非常发达且流动性强的纸面市场，但通常这类市场并不常见。

If you are focusing more in physical cash, I think relationships are super important because I will give you the liquidity you need to be able to trade around unless you have very well developed and liquid paper markets, which is not in general, they are not that common.

所以，可以看出，关系可能不如以前那么重要了。

So, can see that probably relationships are less important than before.

甚至资产网络的重要性也比以前降低了。

And even an asset footprint would be considered also less important than before.

但如果你真的想了解基本面的实际情况，因为这是你的交易风格，而且你相信掌握基本面能让你更有信心做出方向性决策，那么我认为你仍然需要资产网络和人际关系。

But if you really want to know what's going on with the fundamentals, because that's your trading style and you feel that knowing the fundamental will give you enough confidence to go in one direction, I think you still need an asset footprint and relationships.

我觉得你提出的这一点很有趣，亚历克斯，因为我一直以为在嘉吉公司，知道得很多，对吧？

I think it's an interesting point you made, Alex, because I always thought being in Cargill, know a lot, right?

因为拥有资产规模和人员的质量。

Because of the asset footprint and the size, quality of the people.

但你看，我们可以开一个供需会议。

But look, we could have an S and D meeting.

我觉得，是的，这完全说得通，因为我手头有嘉吉公司的大量信息。

And I felt like, okay, yeah, it makes total sense because of all the information I have in Cargill.

然后我在伦敦花了两天时间，与可可行业的经纪人、银行家和其他交易员交流。

And then spent two days in London with the cocoa industry, with brokers, bankers, other traders.

我想，哇。

I thought, wow.

我们了解得还不够。

We don't know enough.

我们了解得太少了。

We know so little.

而且

And

我经常觉得我几乎每周都得去伦敦。

I've so often thought I need to be in London almost every week.

我认为，这取决于你所处的市场，尤其是现货市场，你必须亲自见人、与他们面对面交流。

I do think that depending on the market you're in and especially cash markets, you want to meet people, you want to see them.

当你见到某人时，通常也会感受到：他们对自己所说的话是否自信？

When you meet someone, you usually also feel, are they confident in what they say?

当你见到他们时，他们会用自己对S和D的看法来试探你。

And they try to test you with their view on the S and D when you see it.

但这是仅限于内部人员，还是也包括去伦敦参加大会的人？不，不是。

But that's only people from within or also if you go to London to conference or is it only No.

人们

People

我认为这是来自行业内部的。

I think it's from the industry.

所以是从行业展会来的。

So from trade fairs from the industry.

你看，我好多次在回家的出租车上想，天啊，我们每周都该这么做。

Look, I had so many times that I was in the taxi on my way home.

我觉得我们每周都该这么做。

I thought, shit, we need to do this every week.

因为是的，当你和某人交谈时，你真的能判断出他们说的究竟是不是胡扯。

Because yeah, when you talk to someone, you actually know, you should really see what they tell you is bullshit or not.

但我想回到我之前提出的关于教条主义和批判性思维的观点，我认为与组织外部的人交流有助于你减少教条主义。

But I think going back to this idea I put on the table before about dogmatism and criticism, I think meeting and speaking with people outside the organization helps you to become less dogmatic.

因为否则，当你周围都是想法大致相同的人时，很难跳出框框去思考。

Because otherwise, sometimes when you are surrounded by all the people thinking more or less the same, it's difficult to think out of the box and different.

所以，当你走出去并与其他人的观点进行验证时，我认为这有助于你对某些事情保持更批判的态度。

So, when you go outside and you check with other people, I think that helps you to be more critical with certain things.

所以，这和我们的方向是一致的。

So, it goes in the same direction.

我也会主张开放地去交流和讨论

I would also advocate to be open to go and And speak and discuss

我也经历过很多次，可能是在活动的走廊里，你谈论市场结构之类的话题。

I also have had many times, and it could be in the corridors of an event, where you talk about maybe market structure.

我当时对它有自己的看法和策略。

And I had a certain view on it and a certain strategy.

然后你和一位可信且受人尊敬的交易员交谈，他提出了完全不同的结构。

And you talk to a credible, respected trader who comes up with a completely different structure.

我经常感到非常震惊。

I was often blown away.

我心想，我甚至都没想过这一点。

And I thought, I haven't even thought about it.

我觉得重要的是要意识到，这个人正在管理这种风险敞口，然后将其转化为你自己的敞口。

And I find it important to realize that this guy is running that exposure and then translating it to your own exposure.

同时也要想，也许他是在忽悠我。

Also thinking, maybe he's bullshitting me.

不，但那就是全部。

No, but that's the That's whole

这是一个非常好的观点。

a very good one.

我的意思是，他们为什么应该

I mean, why should they be

当然，绝对如此。

clearly Absolutely.

这就像，你知道的，出于好奇，但也带有一些怀疑。

And and and this is like, you know, curiosity but also being some somewhat skeptical.

我教会自己，无论别人告诉我什么，我都不能把它当作真理。

That I've taught myself whatever someone tells me, I should not take it as the truth.

我应该把它看作：好吧，他或她告诉我这些的动机是什么？

I should take it as, okay, what is this or her incentive to tell me?

因为在大宗商品行业，人们常常也想表达某种观点。

Because very often in commodity industry, people also want to make a point.

但我认为这在很大程度上取决于你交易的商品以及你交易的期货市场的特性。

But I think that depends very much on the commodity you are trading and on the features of the commodity of the futures market you are trading.

是的。

Yeah.

在某些市场，比如美国的大豆市场，你在密西西比河沿岸交割大豆，几乎看不到实物交割。

In some markets, let's take soybeans in The US, for example, where you deliver beans along the Mississippi River, it's very rare to see a delivery.

好的。

Okay.

如果你进入另一个市场，比如糖市场，全球多地都进行糖的交割，那么你经常会看到实物交割。

If you go into a different market, sugar, for example, where you deliver sugar a lot around the world, you see deliveries very often.

因此，根据这种结构和市场动态的特点，这种对话的相关性会完全不同——在大豆市场中几乎无关紧要，而在糖市场中则非常有意义。

So depending on that structure, the features of the dynamic of that dialogue changes completely from being completely relevant in the case of beans to be really meaningful in the case of sugar.

如果我理解得没错的话，可可可能和糖类似。

Probably cocoa is similar to sugar if I understand well.

因此，你需要对他们的说法和正在发生的事情保持高度警觉。

Therefore there you need to be very alert about what they are saying and what's happening.

是的。

Yeah.

关于信息方面，你提到的实物交易权，我想起两个在可可领域最受尊敬的交易员的例子。

And in terms of information, what you said about the physical franchise and I recall an example of two of the most respected traders in Coco.

他们俩都曾从事实物交易权业务。

And they were both in physical franchises.

后来他们转到了对冲基金，那里他们只有两块屏幕。

And then they moved to a hedge fund where they had their two screens.

基本上就是屏幕设置，我就这么形容吧。

Basically screen setup, let me put it that way.

但除此之外，他们不再拥有实物交易权了。

But for the rest, they didn't have the physical franchise anymore.

我曾经去伦敦拜访过他们，那时他们就坐在那里，却无所作为。

And I visited them once in London and there they were sitting there And they were not.

他们并不成功，这让我感到非常震惊，因为这些人曾经在实物交易权领域有着卓越的成功记录。

They were not successful and I find it very striking because these were really strong traders who had a track record of being successful in those physical franchises.

但除此之外

But outside of that

环境，对，你是那个系统的一部分。

environment Right, you're part of a system there.

是的，你是系统的一部分，就像你之前描述的那样。

Yes, you're part of a system and what you described before.

在这种环境下，他们并不成功。

And in that setting they were not successful.

还有另一个我非常熟悉的人，他负责他们，交易做得非常好，也非常受尊重。

And another guy who I know well who was responsible for them, he traded extremely well, also very respected.

但他能够在对冲基金的环境中进行交易。

But he could manage to trade in the hedge fund environment.

这两个人，他们做不到。

These two, they could not.

对。

Right.

那么，你认为在对冲基金和在……之间最大的区别是什么？

What's the big difference, do you think, then between in a hedge fund and in

一个系统，你根本没有实际的交易流程。

a system You have no trade actual flow.

所以在对冲基金里，早上你有一张纸，手上有资金可以配置，但你没有来自某个原始来源、希望卖出并需要对冲的自然交易流。

So, in hedge fund, have a piece of paper in the morning and you have money to allocate, but you have no natural flow from maybe an origin who wants to sell and you need to hedge again.

也没有来自大客户想买入的交易流。

And from big clients who want to buy.

我认为，当一个成功的实物商品交易员进入对冲基金时，考验就在于以下这一点。

I think the test also when you have a physical commodity trader, a successful commodity trader going to a hedge fund is the following.

对于商品行业来说，盈利的合适环境是当价格平稳且较高、波动性也较高时，你赚得更多。

The right environment, let's say, for profitability for the commodity industries when flat prices are higher and when volatility is higher, you make more money.

而当价格较低、波动性也较低时，情况就不同了。

And when prices are lower and volatility is lower.

所以在过去两三年里，我们经历了一个波动性高、价格平稳且高位的绝佳时期。

So in the last two or three years, we have a great period of volatility, high flat prices.

因此，总体而言，商品公司表现得相当不错。

This is why commodity companies in general, they did pretty well.

所以每当这种情况发生时，对冲基金就会来挖走你们的一些交易员，让他们在对冲基金里交易。

So whenever that happens, you have hedge funds coming and taking some of your traders to trade in the hedge fund.

现在，如果这种变动不仅意味着你要换到一个不同的系统工作，还伴随着波动率下降，那你面临的交易环境就会困难得多。

Now, if that move coincides not only with the fact that you are going to be working for a different system, but with the fact that volatility goes down, you are facing a much more difficult trading environment.

所以你独自一人，而且波动率很低。

So you are alone and with low volatility.

因此，你失败的可能性呈指数级上升。

So the chances for you to fail, they are exponential.

这并不是因为你个人有什么不同。

And it's not because you are different.

而是因为你恰好坐在了一个错误的位置上。

It's as you are sitting, let's say, in the wrong place.

所以我认为，当马丁在给人们关于职业选择的建议时，这一点值得深思。

So that's something that I think Martijn, when he advised people about career moves, that's something to think deeply about it.

但我的意思是，你能否说对冲基金里的商品交易和你在中型货主公司或其他地方做的商品交易一样是真正的商品交易呢？

But I mean, also, can you say that the commodity trading at a hedge fund is real commodity trading like you do at a at a medium cargo or whatever?

我认为如果你交易商品期货，是的。

I think if you trade the commodity futures, yeah.

为什么不呢？

Why why not?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为这取决于对冲基金的组织方式。

I think it depends on how the hedge fund is organised.

我认为，最终，为对冲基金交易相对于为大型机构交易的一个优势是，你可能有更广泛的产品选择。

I think one of the advantages eventually of trading for a hedge fund versus one of the big houses is that maybe you have a wider menu of products to follow.

所以你可以专注于那些真正有机遇的品种。

So you can focus or concentrate in those where there is a real opportunity.

有时候，当你为一家交易公司管理一个产品线时，你必须一直盯着单一产品。

Sometimes when you are managing a product line for a trade house, you have to stay with a single product.

如果没有很好的机会，一个常见的错误就是过度交易，这总是很有诱惑力，但你不应该这么做。

And if there are not great opportunities, one of the mistake is to overtrade, which is always tempting, okay, but you shouldn't do.

但如果没有任何机会，而你又只能做单一产品，那就非常无聊了。

But if there are no opportunities and you have a single product, it's pretty boring.

如果在对冲基金里你能管理多种产品，那可能会很有趣。

If in the hedge fund you manage to manage wide, let's say, many of products, that could be interesting.

是的，我一直在做一些演示。

Yeah, I've I've I've I've been doing presentations.

先是石油季节，后来是可可，面向一些对冲基金。

First oil season and later cocoa to some hedge funds.

现在比如纽约的Osprey，由德怀特·安德森拥有。

Now Osprey, for example, in New York, which is owned by Dwight Anderson.

太棒了。

Fantastic.

真的，真的对大宗商品有着极其出色的见解。

Really, really hugely impressive knowledge about commodities.

波特·琼斯。

Porto Jones.

在商品领域非常强大。

Really, really strong in commodities.

布伦海姆多年来由一位荷兰人威廉·科克尔拥有，他去年去世了。

Blenheim for many years, which was had by a Dutch guy, William Coiker, who he died last year.

绝对是一家在商品领域取得成功的对冲基金。

Absolutely fantastic hedge fund successful on commodities.

所以，确实有一些对冲基金表现非常出色。

So yeah, there are really examples of hedge funds with well performance.

是的。

Yeah.

我还在看时间。

I'm just looking at the time as well.

当然，我们实际上还有很多问题，但这一集肯定没法全部讲完了。

Of course, we still actually have a lot of questions, but we're definitely not gonna make it in this episode.

但我可以回来参加第100期节目。

But I can come back for episode number 100.

我很乐意回来。

I'm happy to come back.

太棒了。

Fantastic.

我们很感兴趣。

We are interested.

你有没有一种

Do you have a kind of

交易理念？

a trading philosophy?

我们在日内瓦时遵循的座右铭，我认为那是我们当时的经理亨利·肯尼设计的。

So the motto we're following when we're in Geneva, and I think that was designed by our our manager those days, Henry Kenny.

他总是说，我们必须为了胜利而战。

He was always saying that we have to play to win.

所以，追求胜利就是我们遵循的座右铭。

So playing to win was the motto we're following.

我认为这仍然非常有效。

And I think it's still very valid.

因此，你不是试图避免亏损或故意输掉，而是努力去赢。

So you don't try to avoid making losses or you don't try to lose, you try to win.

这要求我们进行深入的风险收益分析。

And this is dictating a deep risk reward analysis.

所以，是的，我的理念就是追求胜利。

So yeah, that will be my philosophy just to play to win.

这一点已记录下来，供所有交易员参考。

So that's noted for all the traders here.

现在，考虑到当前发生的一切，我们已经讨论了太多重大话题，从新冠疫情到影响粮食供应的乌克兰战争，涉及许多主题。

And now with everything that's going on and we had so many massive topics already from COVID to wars that affect seats from Ukraine, a lot of themes.

我们还经历了供应链中断。

We had supply chain disruptions.

你目前关注和追踪哪些主题？

What are the themes that you are interested at the moment in that you are following?

我喜欢更深入地理解和研究三个方面。

I like to try to understand better and to study deeper three things.

一是宏观因素对市场的影响。

One is the impact of macro issues in markets.

我认为作为基本面交易者，我们往往过于关注每个市场的微观经济，而忽略了宏观世界的影响。

I think we fundamental traders, we have a tendency to think too much in the microeconomics of each market and we tend to miss the impact of the macro world.

今年原油市场的情况就充分说明了这一点。

And that's really what happened this year with the crude oil market.

从一月份开始，所有人都非常看涨，但直到欧佩克决定开始减产，局势才发生变化。

So everyone were super bullish since January and things didn't play out until OPEC decided to start cutting supplies.

但当你看到紧缩的货币政策、GDP增长不如以往时，这些因素就开始影响微观市场了。

But when you see the impact of a tight monetary policy of GDP not growing as in the past, all those things started impacting in micro markets.

因此，我认为宏观因素的影响、美元作为国际货币的作用，是我们可以学到很多东西的重要领域。

So, I think the impact of macro, the impact of the dollar as an international currency, that's I think a big area where we can learn a lot of things.

第二，生物燃料对价格形成的影响。

Second, the impact of biofuels in price formation.

我认为这是一个非常有趣的话题。

I think that's a super interesting topic to have.

第三，我越来越多地阅读关于人口结构的内容。

And the third one, I'm reading more and more about demography.

我开始认为，世界人口的增长将远低于人们的预期。

And I'm starting to think that the population in the world is going to grow much less than what people expect.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

我认为大多数人非常担心，我们现在有80亿人口，到2100年会达到110亿。

I think most of the people are very worried that we are going to be today we are 8,000,000,000, that we are going to be 11,000,000,000 in 2100.

我实际上开始认为，我们甚至可能达不到100亿。

I'm Actually starting to think that we are not going to even be 10,000,000,000.

这将带来许多方面的巨大变化。

And that is going to bring a lot of changes in a lot of things.

所以，我想更好地理解人口增长可能低于预期且老龄化程度超出预期这一现象，这是我希望进一步了解的。

So, I think understanding a bit better the demography of a population that grows probably less than expected and becomes older, clearly than expected is something that I would like to understand a bit better.

谢谢。

Thanks.

好的。

Okay.

很好。

Good.

伊沃，我们显然不能忘记谈谈你的书。

Ivo, we should obviously not forget to touch upon your book.

谢谢。

Thank you.

而且我发现你是通过领英上的某个内容了解到这本书的。

And and the thing is, I've I found out that you were busy with this book through something on on LinkedIn.

当我读到这本书的内容时，我非常兴奋。

And then when when I read what this was about, I was very excited.

我记得我在领英上给你评论过。

And I I wrote I think I commented to you on LinkedIn.

你很友好地把那部分内容写进了书里。

And you were so friendly to to include part of that in the book.

我想推荐这本书。

And I would like to recommend this this book.

你并没有付我任何报酬

You're not paying me anything

就为了这么说

for that

但我真的这么认为，因为我喜欢你和艾伦为可信人士写的这本书，我喜欢的是它并不是为了推销什么。

to say that, but but I really I really do because I like the fact that there is a there is a book made by You and Alan to credible people and what I like about it is not intended to to actually sell something.

它不是那种关于下一个商品超级周期的骗子故事。

It's not some kind of charlatan story about the next commodity super cycle.

不是。

No.

事实上，它澄清了一些我们原本以为正确的关于大宗商品的观念。

In fact, it is demystifying some of the things that we thought were right about commodities.

而且，我认为时机也特别有意思。

Now, and I think also the timing was super interesting.

2021到2022年，整个资产泡沫，免费资金推动通胀达到顶峰。

Twenty one-twenty two, the everything bubble, free money moving to the highest inflation.

你作为阿根廷人可能没经历过，但我相信这绝对是亚历克斯和我在荷兰见过的最高通胀。

Not that you have seen as an Argentinian, but I think certainly the highest inflation that Alex and I have seen here in Holland.

所以我觉得这太棒了。

So I think the fantastic.

时机绝佳，我跟你说过，我读了两遍。

Timing And I told you, I read it twice.

你是唯一一个除了我和艾伦之外，读了不止一遍的人。

You are the only person, you are me and Alan, that read it more than once.

是的，但关键是，我读的时候就像一只狗或小狗因为兴奋而摇尾巴一样。

Yeah, but the thing is, I was reading it and you know a dog wagging its tail, yeah, or a puppy wagging its tail from excitement.

这本书让我有这种感觉，因为我在其中看到了太多熟悉的东西。

And that is what I had with this book because I recognize so many things in it.

它多次印证了我的观点。

It confirmed my views so many times.

我觉得你就像一个我欣赏且非常可信的人。

And I saw you as, yeah, someone I like and I find very credible.

你能和我们分享一下，是什么促使你产生这个想法的？从想法付诸实践到写成这本书，过程是怎样的？

Could you share with us what gave you the idea to do it and what was it like to actually move from the idea into writing it?

我认为这是两个因素的结合。

I think it was a combination of two things.

我正在做并教授大学课程的一项研究发现是，从长期来看，商品价格的实际价值往往会下降。

One of the findings of the research I'm doing and that I'm teaching in the university is that commodity prices in the long term, they tend to go down in real terms.

主要是

Mostly

农业。

agriculture.

如果你想让这一点更有趣，可以以实际工资来衡量商品价格。

If you want to make that even more interesting, if you would measure the price of commodities in terms of real wage.

是的。

Yeah.

比如，测量1901年购买一公斤小麦所需的工作时间，

So the amount of time let's say you want to measure the amount of time you needed in 1901 to buy one kilo of wheat.

然后与今天所需的时间相比，简直微不足道。

And you compare with the amount of time you needed today, it's nothing.

好吧。

Okay.

所以，不仅以美元计的实际价格在下降，以实际工资计算的价格也在进一步下降。

So it's not only the fact that in real time the price in dollars is going down, but also in terms of real wages is going further down.

如果再考虑到1900年我们养活了大约10亿人，而今天我们要养活80亿人，

If on top of that you consider that in 1900 we were feeding probably 1,000,000,000 people and today we are feeding 8,000,000,000 people.

这种影响就被进一步放大了。

The impact is even compounded.

所以结论是我看不到大宗商品价格在实际价值上有上涨的趋势。

So the conclusion is that I don't see really a trend to see an appreciation of commodity prices in real terms.

所以，这是一个事实。

So, this is one fact.

第二个事实是，每当出现危机时，银行都会建议人们购买大宗商品以对冲通胀。

The second one is that whenever we have a crisis, we see banks advising people to go and buy commodities as the hedge against inflation.

我想说的是，要小心。

And what I try to say is that be careful.

有时候有效，有时候无效。

Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't work.

大宗商品不是一种你可以买入后就被动持有的资产类别，你必须理解它们。

Commodities are not an asset class that you can buy and passively follow without understanding them.

如果你要参与大宗商品交易，最好主动买卖，即在合适的时候买入和卖出；而只是把购买大宗商品并长期持有作为一种对冲手段，我认为这不是正确的建议。

And if you are going to follow commodities, you better trade them in the sense that you buy and you sell them when it makes But buying commodities and staying with a commodity position for ages, just as a hedge, I don't think is the right advice.

这就是我们写这篇文章的原因。

So that was the reason why we wrote it.

我以为这是常识，但显然这根本不是常识。

Now I thought this is common sense, but apparently, it is not common sense at all.

事实上，我一直在伦敦和纽约向养老基金做关于商品的演讲。

And the thing is, I have been giving presentations to pension funds in London and in New York about commodities.

是的？

Yeah?

我当然想这么做，但我一直想，你现在打算怎么办？

And, obviously, I wanted to do that, but I always thought, what are you going to do now?

因为我给出的是我对商品市场的看法和分析，无论是油籽还是可可。

Because I give my view, my analysis of about the commodity acid, whether it was oilseeds or cocoa.

我想，好吧，这就是我的交易策略，这么说吧。

And I thought, okay, so this is my trading game plan, if you will.

当我不再在这里的时候，你下周打算做什么？

What are you going to do next week when I'm no longer here?

你打算怎么做？

What are you gonna do?

他们会继续持有这个头寸。

They will just stay with the position.

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

但我确实想做这些演讲，也很享受这个过程，但我一直觉得，这并不是一种投资。

But I I wanted to do it and I enjoyed these presentations, but I always thought, well, this is not this is not an investment.

还有像他们如何在曲线中被击垮这样的问题。

And things like how they get killed in the with the curve.

对吧？

Right?

对。

Right.

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

Sure.

他们并不知道。

They they don't know.

但后来我也开始意识到，有时他们这样做是为了分散风险。

But then I also started to realize that sometimes they do it for diversification.

是的。

Yeah.

我们来看看。

Let's see.

因为他们觉得，哦，这个东西和任何其他资产都没有关联。

Because they thought, oh, you know, this thing is not correlated to anything.

所以我们的投资组合中有一项与任何其他资产都不相关，理论上可以降低我们的风险。

So we have something in our portfolio which is not correlated to anything and actually theoretically reduces our risk.

并且可能让我们在其他我们更了解的领域承担更多敞口。

And maybe enables us to take more exposure in some of the other things that we do understand.

我认为背后有两个原因。

I think there are two reasons behind.

一个是像你所说的多元化，另一个是对抗通货膨胀。

One is like you probably say diversification, and the other one is the hedge against inflation.

多元化确实能分散投资组合的风险。

Diversification definitely diversifies the portfolio.

至于作为对抗通胀的手段，这又取决于具体情况。

Now as a hedge against inflation, again, it depends.

这尤其取决于你进出市场的时机。

It depends especially of the timing of your in and out.

是的。

Yeah.

如果你足够幸运，比如在2020年3月买入大宗商品，你就赚了很多钱。

So if you were lucky enough to, let's say, buy commodities in March 2020, you made a lot of money.

但如果你不幸在2022年3月听从了这个建议，你就亏了30%。

If you were unlucky enough to follow this advice in March 2022, you lost 30% of It's

这不是对冲，而是一种交易。

not a hedge, it's a trade.

你得找对人来做这件事。

You the people to do it.

这些养老基金需要组建真正懂得商品特质并能进行交易的专业团队。

These pension funds, they need to set up the people that really understand the qualities and stand to trade.

否则，这只能是一次性的运气。

Otherwise, it's a one off thing.

你可能走运，也可能倒霉。

You can be lucky, you can be unlucky.

以今年为例。

Take this year, for example.

今年，高盛预测大宗商品价格在2023年将上涨28%。

This year, Goldman Sachs predicted that commodity prices were going to move up '20 eight percent 2023.

好的。

Okay.

今天，高盛商品指数上涨了1%。

Today, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is here today 1% up.

通胀可能上涨了3.5%。

Inflation is probably three and a half up.

所以你的净回报是负的2.5%。

So your net return is negative by two and a half percent.

如果你看彭博商品指数下跌了8%，再加上3%的通胀，你就亏损了11%。

If you take the Bloomberg Commodity Index is down 8% plus the inflation 3%, you are down 11%.

所以这是另一回事。

So that's the other thing.

这很大程度上取决于你购买的指数的性质。

It depends very much on the nature of the index you are buying.

所以事情并不是简单地去买商品就行了。

So the fact that it's not just go and buy commodities.

那你该买哪种商品呢？

So which commodity do you buy?

该基金的展期策略是什么？

What's the rolling strategy of the fund?

是的。

Yeah.

所以在朝这个方向迈进之前，你需要理清很多问题。

So there are lot of things that you need to sort out before going in that direction.

我认为实际上并没有现货市场。

And I think it's actually don't have paper markets.

我认为最好能找到一个优秀的，是的。

I think it's better to to find a good Yeah.

最终找到一个优秀的主动管理者，能够同时进行多头和空头操作，并以这种方式配置资金。

Eventually active manager who can play both long side and short side and allocate money in that way.

我认为在这里，你看到的投资股票与商品择时之间的区别在于，时机至关重要，对吧？

I think here the difference you see between investing in equity stocks versus commodities timing is everything, yeah?

但这一点在商品交易中尤其适用，因为你进行的是短期交易。

But that really applies to commodities where you trade on the short term.

投资股市时，你不应该试图择时。

Investing in the stock market, you should not time the market.

这有很大的区别，对吧？

It's big difference, right?

你还有股息，而在这里你没有。

You have dividends as well that And here you don't

我认为这也是这个行业的魅力所在，因为你真的需要进行深入分析。

I think that's also what makes being in this industry so so interesting is that you really need to make a deep analysis.

是的，你不能只是说，哦，我把这个东西长期持有，就像有些人做商品日内交易时那样。

Yeah, you can't just say, oh, I put this thing on for the for the long run Like sometimes people do when they do a day trade in commodities.

日内交易失败后，他们就把仓位留到隔夜。

The day trade goes wrong and then they leave it overnight.

结果就变成了几乎像长期投资一样。

And it turns into kind of almost like an investment for the long term.

我认为这本书传达了审慎和谨慎的建议。

I think the book is a word of prudency and to be cautious.

所以我过去三十五年一直在交易商品。

So I've been trading commodities for the last thirty five years.

所以我最不希望人们认为的是，你不应该参与商品交易。

So the last thing I want people to think is that you shouldn't take commodities.

实际上，你可以尝试商品交易，但不要被动地投资商品。

Actually, you try commodities but not by passively commodities.

当你提到谨慎时，我之所以觉得像小狗摇尾巴，是因为它确实迫使你去思考，真正理解其中的背景。

When you say cautious, why mentioned like I was reading it like a puppy wagging its tail is because it actually forces you to think and to really understand the context.

它也为在这个行业中取得成功的人增添了可信度。

And it also gives credibility to the people who are successful in this business.

这并不是下了交易单就闭眼不管，二十年后再睁开眼，像巴菲特那样。

This is not putting on the trade and then opening your eyes after twenty years like Buffett.

我不是说巴菲特和芒格的做法很简单。

I'm not saying what Buffett and Munger do is simple.

一点都不简单。

It's not.

但在股票市场投资中，时间是你的朋友。

But in investing in the stock market, time is your friend.

你刚刚解释了，时间在商品交易中并不是你的朋友。

You have just explained that time is not your friend in commodities.

时机，时机在你的分析中才是你的朋友。

Timing timing is your friend in your analysis.

事实污点。

The fact stain.

污点这一事实并非商品的价值所在。

The fact that stain is not the value in commodities.

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

因此，我的意思是，当我再次读这本书时，我想，没错，这正是我们所做的。

And and therefore, I mean, when you again, when I read this book, I thought, yeah, this is what we do.

这可不是《华尔街之狼》那种忽悠。

This is not a Wolf of Wall Street bullshit.

这是苦干。

This is grinding.

这是艰苦的工作，因此它变得困难而复杂。

This is hard work and that makes it difficult, complex.

但同时也令人兴奋且回报极高。

But exciting and extremely rewarding.

当你做成一笔好交易时。

When you make a good trade.

有时候有人会说，但交易商品确实很难。

Sometimes I have people say, but then trading commodities is difficult.

我说，是的，确实很难。

And I say, yeah, it's difficult.

是的，必须如此。

Yeah, it has to be.

是的。

Yes.

必须如此。

It has to be.

最后，我想谈谈时机。

With that on the end note, I mean, talk about timing.

作为总结，我写下了一些我学到的东西：不要教条，允许自己犯一次错误，但不能再多，你需要一个解读框架来争取胜利。我非常非常感谢你来到这里，期待今晚在阿姆斯特丹与你共度美好夜晚。

I think as conclusion I've written down some some things that I that I learned being not dogmatic and you're allowed to make one mistake not more right you need the interpretation framework playing to win is your sentence And I really, really appreciate you being here and I look forward to our great night tonight here in Amsterdam, of course.

阿尔伯特，非常感谢你。

Albert, thank you very much.

真的非常感谢。

Really, really appreciate it.

有你参加我们的第一期节目真是太棒了。

Super to have you in our first episode.

这特别有意义，因为我和马丁一起做播客时，完全不知道该如何开始。

Really special, especially because I had no idea how to do a podcast together here with Martin.

再次非常感谢你。

So thank you very much again.

我很高兴能来到这里，作为第一位嘉宾是一种真正的荣誉。

I'm very glad to be here and to be the first guest is a real honor.

祝你的项目顺利。

So good luck with the project.

希望你未来能拥有大量听众。

Hopefully, you have a lot of listeners in the future.

是的，再次感谢你，也感谢你写了这本书。

Yeah, thank you again, and thank you for writing the book as well.

因为我们的行业需要愿意分享知识的人。

Because our industry needs people who are willing to share their knowledge.

这并不是一个透明的行业。

And it's it's not, let's say, a transparent industry.

所以行业应该庆幸有你愿意去教育大家。

So the industry should be glad that they have you willing to educate.

这也是亚历克斯和我想要做类似事情的部分动力，那就是分享我们的知识和经验，教育所有对此感兴趣的人。

And that's also, you know, some of the motivation For Alex and myself to do something similar to to share our knowledge and experience and educate everyone who is interested.

在商品行业，帮助人们做出更好的决策，更好地理解世界上正在发生的事情。

In the commodity industry and make better decisions and have a better understanding of what's happening in the in the world.

非常感谢你为此所做的努力。

So thanks a lot for that.

我们做这件事时充满了乐趣，尤其是通过播客。

So we do that with a lot of fun and with the podcast.

谢谢你的支持。

So thanks for that.

谢谢你。

Thanks for you.

到此结束。

That's a wrap.