第29期：阿尔方索·佩卡蒂洛

那瑞典呢？

What about Sweden?

主要赤字。

Primary deficits.

我现在可以继续列出这份几乎无穷无尽的国家名单，这些国家实际上都接受了负资产的故事，即通过主要赤字向经济注入资源。

I can now go on with the list, almost infinite list of countries that effectively have embraced the negative equity story, which is primary deficit to inject resources into the economy.

所以，如果它们不再使用美元，那它们该用哪种货币呢？

So if they stop using the dollar, then which currency are they supposed to use?

我这只是在 provocative 地提出这个问题。

Basically, I'm just provocatively asking this question.

你甚至可以退一步说，如果所有经济体都在选择尽可能地加杠杆于法定货币体系，那么以这种货币计价的资产会怎样呢？

You can even take a step back and say, if all the economies are choosing to apply this model of levering up the fiat system as much as possible, what are the assets that are priced in this currency is doing?

或者我在我框架中称之为政策制定者抗议资产（PPA）。

Or what I call in my framework, the policymaker protest assets, PPA.

所以这些资产本质上起到了安全阀的作用。

So these are assets that basically act as a release valve.

它们是分子。

They are the numerator.

让我们举一些例子。

Let let's make some examples.

黄金、比特币，相对容易理解。

Gold, Bitcoin, relatively easy to understand.

黄金非常容易理解。

Gold is just very, easy to understand.

所以黄金无法被贬值，也无法被创造。

So gold can't be devalued, can't be created.

你不会有哪个黄金央行来创造新的黄金，并把黄金以负权益的形式发放出去。

You can you don't have a a central bank of gold that creates new gold and sends gold in negative equity.

你没有同样的框架。

You don't have the same framework.

对吧？

Right?

你实际上每年能获得的黄金供应量是相对稳定且有限的。

You actually have a relatively well measured and limited supply per year of gold coming to above earth.

然后你拥有这种资产，它以全球所有法定货币来衡量。

And then you have basically this asset, which is measured in all the fiat currencies in the world.

所以你有黄金对美元、黄金对欧元、黄金对日元的比价。

So you have gold against dollar, gold against euro, gold against Japanese yen.

你有多种方式来衡量黄金相对于法定货币的价值，你可以选择任何一种货币。

You have a series of ways to measure gold against the fiat currencies, and you can choose whatever currency you want.

货币是分母。

The currency is the denominator.

所以当你基本增加分母的供应量时，价格就会相应上升，抱歉。

So as you basically increase the supply of the denominator, then the price will effectively sorry.

如果你增加分母的供应量并使分母贬值，那么作为分子的黄金在该特定货币中的价格就会上涨。

If you as if you increase the supply of the denominator and devalue denominator, then the numerator, which is gold price in that specific currency, will go up.

所以现在这就是我们所处的世界。

So now this is the the world we live in.

我们生活在一个法定货币供应量不断增加的世界中，而这并不仅仅指中央银行的资产负债表。

We live in a world where the supply of fiat currency and that is not the central bank balance sheet.

我从未提到过美联储此刻正在做什么。

You haven't heard me for a second talk about what the Fed is doing right here.

对吧？

Right?

连一秒钟都没提到过。

Not for a single second.

我谈的是各国政府在做什么。

I talked about what the governments are doing.

没错。

Yeah.

此外，你还应该考虑私营部门在做什么。

And now on top of it, you should add what is the private sector doing.

是的。

Yes.

而私营部门正陷入一场人工智能狂热，世界上最大经济体的自由现金流已被完全耗尽，并且它们实际上将完全耗尽于资本支出及更多方面，因为甲骨文已经将其自由现金流转为负值。

And the private sector is going into an AI binge where the free cash flow of the largest US economies in the world have been completely depleted, and they will be effectively completely depleted into CapEx and more on top of it because Oracle has already sent their free cash flow to negative.

基本上，它们正在尽可能多地自我投资，以确保在人工智能资本支出领域占据一席之地。是的。

Basically, they're indexing themselves as much as they can to secure a certain place in the AI CapEx Yeah.

角色。

Role.

因此，如果公司通过发行公司债券创造更多货币——这基本上是加杠杆资产负债表的一种方式——你将在经济中创造更多支出能力。

And so if companies create more money by issuing corporate debt, which is basically a way to lever up your balance sheet, you will be creating more spending power into the economy.

而这是真实的支出。

And this is real spending.

它流入数据中心。

It goes into the data centers.

它用于购买数据中心所需的铜材。

It goes into buying copper that is needed for the data centers.

它用于雇佣建设数据中心所需的人员，诸如此类。

It goes into hiring people that are needed to build the data centers and so on and so forth.

所以整个世界基本上都在加杠杆。

So the whole world is levering up basically.

无论是政府还是企业都在加杠杆，创造出更多的可支配资金，实际上稀释了全球所有金融资产的分母。

Either the governments or the corporates are levering up and are creating more spendable money pretty much, and they are effectively diluting the denominator of all the financial assets in the world.

无论是股票，因为股票是以法定货币计价的。

Be them stocks, because stocks are denominated in fiat currency.

还是大宗商品。

Be them commodities.

它们都是以法定货币计价的，等等等等。

They are denominated in fiat currencies and so on and so forth.

基本上，我描述的是一个资产价格上涨的世界，因为这些资产是以一种供应量迅速扩张的货币计价的。

Basically, I'm describing a world where assets go up because they're denominated in a currency, whatever it is that is getting expanded in supply very rapidly.

但有一件事我不太清楚。

But one thing is is not clear for me.

所以你提到的那2000美元直升机派钱，倒是个不错的说法。

And so you and and and it's nice to stay with that $2,000 helicopter money, if you will.

是的。

Yeah.

那额外的赤字，是由计算机系统在某个地方添加数字来管理的吗？

That additional deficit, is that managed by somewhere in a computer system adding some numbers?

因为我认为，现在已经不再是实体印刷机印出崭新的美元钞票直接发给人们了。

Because it's not anymore, I think, the physical printing press where dollar fresh dollar bills are just given out to people.

它是数字化的。

It is it is digital.

嗯哼。

Uh-huh.

那么，针对这个，是否需要发行美国国债，或者在甲骨文的情况下发行公司债券？

And then against that, does there need to be the issuing of US Treasuries or in that in in in case of Oracle, a corporate bond?

意思是，你需要找到真正愿意承担这些债务的人吗？

Meaning meaning, do you need to find people who actually take on their debt or not?

好问题。

Excellent question.

甲骨文的问题与政府问题非常不同，因为甲骨文不能印自己的钱。

The Oracle question is very different than the government question because Oracle can't print its own money.

不。

No.

没错。

Exactly.

这非常不同。

That is very different.

这就像是我从一家荷兰银行获得抵押贷款，然后我说：哦，我想自己印我的贷款还款。

It is as if I get a mortgage from a Dutch, you know, bank, and then I say, oh, I would like to print my own mortgage pay.

不行。

No.

这是不可能的。

That's not not possible.

不幸的是。

Unfortunately.

不幸的是，这是不可能的。

Unfortunately, that's not possible.

但让我们暂时回到政府的问题上。

But let's stick to the government for a second.

好吗？

Okay?

因为政府的货币创造与私营部门不同。

Because government money creation is different than the private sector.

我们会讨论这个。

We're gonna talk about it.

让我们谈谈政府。

Let's talk about the government.

所以你用对了动词。

So you use the right verb.

必须有人购买这些债券吗？

Must there be somebody there that buys the bonds?

我们需要的是没有。

We need to have no.

我们不需要任何发行。

We don't need to have any issuance.

我们有一个发行流程，因为这是我们构建系统所依据的惯例。

We have an issuance process because that's the convention we have built the system around.

我们不需要发行。

We don't need to have an issuance.

所以，从机制上讲，这运作方式是：当政府实际上——让我退一步说。

So mechanically, how this works is that when the government actually, let me take a step back.

让我们假设，不是政府，而是川普国王，事实上，我认为这离现实并不遥远。

Let's assume that instead of the government, we would have king Trump, which actually is not that that far away from the reality, I think.

但让我们假定，我们确实有一个川普国王。

But let's assume for a fact that we do have king Trump.

好的。

Okay.

如果国王特朗普宣布从明天起，向美国人发放额外5000亿美元，事情就这么定了。

If king Trump would say that as per tomorrow, we have an additional 500,000,000,000 of dollars being handed over to Americans, and that would be it signed.

在货币系统中，会有人把2000美元送到每户人家。

And there will be in the coinage system, there will be somebody shipping over, you know, $2,000 to each house.

明白吗？

Okay?

直接用现金送过去。

Just ship them over in cash.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

还需要有人发行什么东西吗？

Would there be somebody that needs to issue anything?

其实不需要。

Not really.

只会由国王特朗普铸造一些钱并分发给民众。

There will be just King Trump that coins some money and sends it to the people.

你知道的？

You know?

是的。

And yeah.

当然。

Of course.

这会引发什么反应？

What will be the reaction of this?

钱是从哪里来的？

Where is the where is the money coming from?

那么，这笔钱有价值吗？

Well, is this money worth?

我的意思是，这到底是什么？

I mean, what what is this?

对。

Right.

好的。

Okay.

所以我们现在设计了一个稍微复杂一点的系统，只是稍微复杂一点，但原理保持不变。

So we have now designed a slightly more complicated system, slightly, but the principle remains the same.

这是一个计算机系统，确实正确，因为我们不再使用硬币，而是使用银行存款。

It is a computer system that is indeed correct because instead of using coins, we're using bank deposits.

所以我们在这里做的是，政府说：好吧，我会减少对你的征税。

So what we are doing here is the government saying, okay, I'm gonna tax you less.

明白吗？

Alright?

所以今年某个时候，你的银行账户里会多出2000美元。

So there's gonna be $2,000 more on your bank account at some point this year.

没问题。

Fine.

现在，政府在我的负资产中将减少2000美元。

Now I will have a government will have $2,000 less in my negative equity.

明白吗？

Okay?

为了资助——请注意，如果你看不到我，这里有个巨大的引号——来资助这2000美元，或者无论这个总计2500亿美元的金额，我都需要发行2500亿的额外纸币或债券。

To fund and please, you if you can't see me, there is huge air quotes under the wing to fund this $2,000 or whatever this 250,000,000,000 aggregate, I need to issue 250,000,000,000 additional of either bills or bonds.

明白吗？

Okay?

现在，当我花掉这些钱时，我会给你多出这几千美元。

Now the moment I spend them, I give you those thousand dollars more.

结果就是，你的银行账户增加了2000美元。

What happens is that your bank account goes up by $2,000.

如果你花了这2000美元，别人就会收到，那么他的账户就会增加。

If you spend the $2,000 that somebody else will receive, then his account will go up.

所以，这笔钱并没有从经济中消失。

So the money doesn't go away from the economy.

但总体而言，仍然有人在经济中拥有2500亿美元更多的银行存款。

Still somebody has, on aggregate, 250,000,000,000 more of bank deposits in the economy.

在任何时刻，都必须有人持有这些资金。

Somebody must hold it at any point in time.

这笔钱去哪儿了，马丁？

Where does the money go, Martijn?

它流向了银行。

It goes to banks.

银行是接收方。

Banks are the recipient.

因此，银行存款是银行的一项负债。

So bank deposits is a liability for a bank.

这意味着系统中将多出2500亿美元的银行存款。

That means there will be 250,000,000,000 more of bank deposits sitting somewhere in the system.

这2500亿美元必须在资产端有所体现。

That 250,000,000,000 has to be reflected in assets somewhere.

对吧？

Right?

这些资产是中央银行的准备金。

These assets are reserves at the central bank.

所以银行的存款增加了，如果它们不打算如何使用这些资金，这些资金最终会回到美联储。

So the bank has more deposits and if they don't choose to do much with it, this will end up back at the federal reserve.

明白吗？

Okay?

这是最简单的机制。

That's the simplest scheme of things.

现在来看发行环节。

Now comes the issuance.

把这一切看作是同时发生的。

Think of it all as a it happens altogether.

我试着简化一下，以便大家理解，抱歉。

I'm trying to be to bring it down so they to build it sorry.

简化一下，以便更容易理解。

Cut it down so it's easier to understand.

当银行的存款和储备各自增加了2500亿美元时，发行就会发生，而一级交易商——猜猜是谁？——就是这些银行本身，会出现在拍卖会上，用他们持有的2500亿美元储备换取2500亿美元的债券。

When banks have 250,000,000,000 more of deposits and 250,000,000,000 more of reserves, the issuance comes through and the primary dealers, which are guess what, the same banks, will show up at the auction and they will swap the 250,000,000,000 of reserves that they have for 250,000,000,000 of bonds.

搞定。

Voila.

我们现在已将发行资金化，所谓意义上的。

We have funded, quote unquote, the issuance.

现在，在我们所构建的体系中，金融市场开始发挥作用。

Now in the system we have created, the financial markets comes to play.

这实际上是该体系最困难的限制之一。

And this is actually one of the hardest limitation of the system.

有两个限制。

There are two.

第一个是，如果你以过快的速度持续负责任地这样做，你仍然在向系统中注入新创造的美元。

The first is if you responsibly keep doing this at too much of a large pace, you are still injecting new created dollars into the system.

这意味着人们的消费能力很强。

That means people have a lot of spending power.

如果经济的供给端没有快速增长，而需求却迅速上升，猜猜会怎样？

And if the supply side of the economy isn't increasing rapidly and the demand is instead increasing rapidly, guess what?

价格会上涨。

Prices will go up.

这就是我们在2022年看到的情况。

And that's what we saw in 2022.

当时货币创造太多了。

There was too much money creation.

我们在十八个月内创造了4万亿美元。

We did $4,000,000,000,000 in eighteen months.

这是一笔惊人的数额。

That's a ridiculous amount.

然后还出现了一系列供应链问题。

And then there was a bunch of supply chain problems.

所以基本上，我们无法生产。

And so basically, we couldn't produce.

我们无法提供足够大的供应来满足需求，因此价格成为了释放压力的阀门。

We couldn't have a supply large enough to meet the demand, and so prices were the release valve.

当然，如果你在需求端以如此快的速度持续这样做，就会创造过多的美元，可能会再次出现通胀问题。

Of course, if you keep doing this at such a rapid place on the demand side, you create too much dollars, you might have another inflation problem.

所以这是第一个限制。

So that's limitation number one.

那就是资源的稀缺性和通货膨胀。

It's the scarcity of resources and it's inflation.

第二个问题是金融市场。

Second problem, financial markets.

我们向系统中引入了一种新事物，叫做金融市场。

We have introduced a new animal into the system, which is called financial markets.

而那里的问题是债券卫士。

And the problem there is bond vigilantes.

那么，谁是债券警卫呢？

So who are the bond vigilantes?

这些是宏观投资者，我想说，记住，主要交易商在拍卖中购买债券。

These are macro investors, I would say, that in order so the remember, the primary dealers buy the right, from in auction.

在某些时候，这些主要交易商必须将这些债券转售给客户。

At some point, these primary dealers gotta offload these bonds to customers.

这些客户中的一部分就是债券警卫。

Now these customers are part of them are bond vigilantes.

这些是敏锐而聪明的宏观投资者，他们要求为此类操作获得补偿。

So these are macro investors that are very keen, very smart, and they demand to be compensated for this game.

是的。

Yes.

而且

And

这种操作本质上随着时间推移涉及越来越多的发行。

this game involves more and more and more issuance basically over time.

这就是它的本质。

That's what it involves.

从他们的角度来看，如果你发行十年期债券或三年期债券并买入，你的投资组合将面临很大波动，因为十年期债券本身就具有波动性。

And from their side, well, if you issue a ten year bond or a third year bond and you buy it, you will have a lot of volatility in your portfolio because a ten year bond has volatility.

三年期债券由于期限更长，波动性甚至更高，没错。

A third year bond has even more volatility by the virtue of a higher duration Yeah.

或者用通俗的话说，就是对利率更敏感。

Or interest rate sensitivity, to put it in plain English.

没错。

Yeah.

因此，债券守卫者会观察这一趋势，并说：好吧，这里有多少通胀？

So what happens is the bond vigilantes will look at this trajectory and they will say, like, okay, like, how much inflation do we have here?

你的央行在做什么？

What is your central bank doing?

他们是在提高还是降低借贷成本来应对这种情况？

Are they making borrowing costs higher or lower against this?

我的意思是，在这种情况下，你有多负责任？从一到十打个分吧？

I mean, how responsible somehow on a scale from one to 10 are you in this scenario?

如果你几乎不负责任，比如现在的日本，利率接近零，财政赤字巨大，那么债券卫士就会醒过来，说：抱歉，你这种做法我觉得不可持续。

If you're very little responsible, say Japan right now with interest rates close to zero and aggressive budget deficits, then the bond vigilantes are gonna wake up and they're gonna say, I am sorry, but what you're doing, I don't think it's sustainable.

或者，如果你想让我购买你发行的长期债券——这些债券有很高的久期风险——你就得给我更高的补偿。

Or if you want me to buy the bonds in the long end that you're issuing with a lot of duration risk, you gotta compensate me more.

于是收益率曲线会变陡。

And so the curve will steepen.

基本上会变得更向上倾斜，因为长期收益率会更高，以补偿债券卫士承担的更多风险。

Basically, will become more upward sloping because the yields on the long end will be higher to compensate the bond vigilantes for more risk.

同时，他们会 aggressively 卖出本币，因为他们会说：你的货币一文不值，你的发债规模正在飙升。

And at the same time, they will aggressively sell down the currency because they will basically say, look, your currency is worth nothing here and your issuance is going to the moon.

所以债券卫士的交易总是包含两个方面。

So the bond vigilantes trade sees always two legs.

货币贬值，债券收益率上升。

Currency down, bond yields up.

同时，如果债券收益率上升，但货币却在升值，那就不存在债券卫士了，各位。

Simultaneously, if bond yields are going up but the currency is appreciating, there are no bond vigilantes, guys.

这只是一些人正在卖出长期债券，因为名义增长率在上升，因此货币也随之升值。

There is just people selling duration because nominal growth is going up, and so the currency also appreciates.

我们曾在美国关税公告前后短暂看到过债券卫士的现象。

Bondi Gelandes is what we saw in The US briefly around the tariff announcement.

美元下跌，收益率上升。

Dollar down yields up.

我们在英国也多次看到过这种情况。

We saw it in The UK plenty of time.

所以，再次回想2023年那场预算灾难，英镑下跌、收益率上升，我们在日本也经常看到这种现象。

So again, remember the budget disaster that was in 2023, so the sterling down and yields up, and we see it in Japan pretty often.

所以，货币贬值，收益率上升。

So currency down and yields up.

这是一个非常有趣的动态，因为不仅作为专业投资者，你需要关注这些现象，作为私人投资者也同样如此。

An interesting a very interesting dynamic because not only as a professional investor, you need to look at these things, but also as a as a private as a private investor.

我认为如果你回顾过去几年，很多时候美国的赤字被视为不可持续的导火索，最终会引发某种市场崩盘，但这并未发生。

I think if you look at the last couple of years, so many times, The US deficit has been seen as the the unsustainable trigger which eventually will create some kind of a market crash, and it hasn't happened.

对吧？

Right?

现在，37,000,000,000,000是一个你无法想象的数字，但30,000,000,000,000和40,000,000,000,000也同样如此。

Now, 37,000,000,000,000 is an is an amount you can't imagine what it is, but 30,000,000,000,000 too and 40,000,000,000,000 too.

所以，你可以从GDP的角度来看待这个问题。

So what is kind of, you know and and you can look at it in terms of GDP.

不过确实。

But yeah.

那么约束条件是什么？

What is what are the constraints?

例如，你提到了英国的22。

And and, for example, you you mentioned 22 in The UK.

那就是信任危机，没错。

That was the list trust Yes.

情况。

Situations.

不同之处在于英国经济规模小得多，而且没有世界储备货币。

And the difference is The UK is a much smaller economy, and they don't have the world reserve currency.

没错。

That's right.

现在，除了你自己之外，我认识的最出色的宏观投资者或交易员之一是斯坦·德鲁肯米勒。

Now, one of the best, outside of yourself, macro investors or traders that I know is Stan Druckenmiller.

我真的很喜欢斯坦·德鲁肯米勒。

I'll I I really like Stan Druckenmiller.

他也一直在做空美国国债，他说：‘是的，我们将在美国看到信任度下降的环境。’

And he also has been positioning short US treasuries where he said, yeah, we're gonna get a less trust environment in The US.

嗯。

Mhmm.

那么，你是如何看待这一点的？

Now how do you how do you look at that?

标准的洛克菲勒不需要任何介绍。

Standard Rockefeller is a he doesn't require an introduction.

说实话，我甚至不配和他相提并论。

And I would I don't even deserve to be in the same sentence as him, to be honest.

但谢谢你把我 somehow 和他放在同一句话里。

But thanks for putting me somehow in the same sentence.

所以关于收益率，我认为德鲁肯米勒有他的道理。

So Druckenmiller, I think he he has a point when it comes to yields.

要看到美国出现信任危机的时刻很难。

It's harder to see that list trust moment in The US.

记住，信任危机时刻或债券卫士意味着美元下跌，同时收益率上升。

Remember, the list trust moment or bond vigilantes means the dollar goes down and yields go up together.

因此，美国资产的持有者会要求更高的回报来持有美国资产。

So effectively, owners of US assets will demand a premium to own US assets.

为什么我认为这很难呢？

Why do I think it's difficult?

实际上有两个原因。

There are two reasons, really.

第一个是储备货币地位。

The first is the reserve currency status.

这是非常重要的一点。

That's that's a very, very important one.

我稍后解释一下。

I will explain for a second.

第二个，我认为是当时英国的做法：在高通胀之上还实施了大规模财政赤字，情况完全失控。

And the second, I would say, is that what The UK was doing back then is doing a large amount of budget deficits on top of inflation, which is completely out of control.

我的意思是，英国的核心通胀率达到5%，而财政政策却采取扩张性措施。

I mean, you had core inflation at 5% in in The UK, and trust came with an expansionary budget.

我的意思是，这简直是在玩火。

I mean, that is really playing with fire.

美国的核心通胀率也达到了5%到6%，但在2022年，它们还更积极地收紧了财政政策。

The US had 5%, 6% core inflation, but in 2022, they also tightened the budget a little bit more aggressively.

他们向投资者表明，他们不会在此基础上再加码。

They showed investors they were not gonna pile on top of that.

明白吗？

Okay?

现在我们来谈谈收益率部分。

Now let's talk about the yields part.

我同意德鲁肯米勒的观点，在美国当前环境下，名义增长率已经达到5%，每年还额外实施3%的初级赤字，这实际上是在非常激进地刺激增长，并可能进一步推高通胀。

So I do agree with Druckenmiller, long end yields in The US under this environment where nominal growth is already 5%, and you're doing another every year 3% of primary deficit on top of it, frankly, you're stimulating growth very, very aggressively and also inflation potentially on top of it.

在这种未来通胀和增长上行风险极高的环境下，是的。

So in that environment where uncertainty around future inflation and growth is that high on the upside, I mean Yeah.

那么长期债券就不应该出现上涨。

Then long end bonds shouldn't be able to rally.

你知道吗？

You know?

你应该预期它们会随着时间推移升至5%或更高，除非贝桑特及其公司通过各种手段进行财务粉饰，因为他们有太多方法可以试图控制长期利率。

You should actually expect them to move to 5% or higher over time, barring financial maquillage by Besant and company because they have many, many ways they can try to control the long end.

试着去做，但不一定能成功。

Try to, but not necessarily succeed.

从长远来看，我同意德鲁肯米勒的观点，在当前这种环境下，三年期利率应该更高，这与债券卫士的行动以及美元走弱有关。

In the long run, I do agree with Druckenmiller that third year rates should be higher under What these about the bond vigilantes move that also includes the dollar going down?

好的。

Okay.

储备货币地位至关重要。

The reserve currency status is extremely important.

简单来说，这意味着外国持有约15万亿美元的美元计价债务。

And this is what what it really means to make it simple again, is that we have about $15,000,000,000,000 of foreign countries holding US denominated debt.

因此，它们发行美元计价债务。

So they issue dollar denominated debt.

我指的是中国发行美元计价债务，巴西企业、巴西政府等等。

And I'm talking about China issuing dollar denominated debt, Brazilian corporates, the Brazil government, etcetera, etcetera.

它们为什么这么做？

Why do they even do this?

是的。

Yes.

他们这样做是因为，每当巴西想要加杠杆、种植更多大豆、向世界其他地区销售更多大豆时，他们都会以美元销售大豆，伙计们。

They do this because every time that basically Brazil wants to lever up their system and sell more soybeans and farm more soybeans and sell more soybeans to the rest of the world, they will sell the soybeans in dollars, guys.

这就是他们会做的。

That's what they will do.

所以他们会收到美元，这意味着对他们来说，以美元加杠杆来生产更多大豆，然后再以美元出售，要容易得多。

So they will receive you a So that means that for them, it's much easier to lever up in dollars to produce more soybeans and then sell them back in dollars.

整个体系就是围绕美元设计的。

It's just the the system is designed around dollars.

因此，这意味着我们建立了一个体系，其中非美国国家发行了15万亿美元的美元计价债务。

And so what that means is that we have created a system that has $15,000,000,000,000 of dollar denominated debt issued by non US countries.

我为什么要提到这一点？

Why am I mentioning this?

基本上，这些国家通过加杠杆，开展了比一百万美元更多的业务和出口。

Basically, these countries have levered up to make more business, more exports than a million dollars.

因此，他们持续收到美元流入，这些美元进入巴西的银行系统。

They keep receiving dollar inflows as a result, and then these dollars enter the Brazilian banking system.

好的。

Okay.

行。

Fine.

这意味着巴西需要将这些美元进行再循环和投资。

So this means that Brazil will need to recycle and invest these dollars somewhere.

明白吗？

Okay?

基本上，你不能让美元闲置在那里。

To basically, you do you cannot have a dollar, idle dollar sitting somewhere.

你必须将它投资到某个地方，即使是在像国债这样的无风险工具上。

You will have to invest it somewhere even in a risk free instrument like a T bill.

明白吗？

Okay?

因此，巴西的银行或中央银行——取决于谁掌控这一过程——会将这些赚取的美元重新投资于美元计价的资产。

So what happens is that the Brazilian banks or the central bank, depends who is in control of the process, will recycle these earned dollars into dollar denominated assets.

这些资产是什么？

And what are these?

最深入、最安全的做法是将它们投入短期美国国债。

Well, the deepest and the safest thing you can do is put them into short term US debt.

因此，你可以将它们存入国库券、两年期债券或五年期债券中。

So you can park them into T bills or two year bonds or five year bonds.

是的。

Yeah.

这创造了对美国国债巨大而持续的需求。

This creates an enormous continuous demand for US debt.

这是巨大的。

This is gigantic.

你应该想象所有贸易顺差国家，比如亚洲、拉丁美洲，所有这些国家都在将这些美元重新循环回美国国债。

You should imagine all the trade surplus countries, Asia, Latin America, all of them, you should imagine that they are recycling these dollars back into The US debt.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以这就创造了非常非常稳定且强劲的需求。

So that creates a very, very stable and strong demand.

过去有些人认为将会出现新的金砖国家货币，他们将用金砖国家创造的某种新货币进行贸易结算。

Now some people have argued over the past that there's gonna be a new BRICS currency, and they're gonna we're gonna settle trade in some other new currency created by BRICS.

基本上就是新兴市场国家，巴西、南非等等，还有中国。

So they're basically the emerging market nations, Brazil, South Africa, etcetera, etcetera, and China.

问题在于，如果你放弃美元结算来出售大豆，比如说你是巴西人，开始用某种新货币或其他货币进行交易，那么你将失去美元流入。

The question there is, if you abandon dollar settlement when you sell soybeans, say you are Brazilian, you start selling them in one or in a new currency or whatever, what happens is that you will forego your inflows of dollars.

明白吗？

Okay?

你将不再有任何美元收入。

You will not see any dollars anymore as an income.

记住，你在资产负债表的负债端用美元进行了杠杆操作，所以你增加了自己的杠杆率。

Remember, you have levered up in dollars on the liability side of the balance sheet, so you have increased your leverage.

所以你最终必须用美元来偿还这些美元负债。

So you've got to service this dollar liabilities at some point using dollars.

因此，你需要持续获得美元流入，这促使你以美元出售大豆。

So you do need access to a continuous inflow of dollars, which incentivizes you to sell soybeans in dollars.

如果你做不到，就无法获得这种美元流入，我认为你会发现要违约以偿还这些美元债务变得非常复杂，或许你不得不违约。

If you don't, you will not have access to this inflow and you would rather find it very complicated, I think, to actually default to actually service this dollar diabetes, and perhaps you will have to default.

当你违约时，你凭什么信誉去向世界其他地区说：我想和你做交易？

Now when you default, with what credibility are you going to go to the rest of the world and say, I want to trade with you, basically.

如果你无法真正偿还这些负债，我怎么能在你的货币体系下和你进行贸易？

I want to trade with you in your currency if you're not able to really service these liabilities.

最后，真正支撑美元的是，我们在美国境外创造了15万亿美元的债务，这意味着当贸易流动放缓、全球经济普遍放缓时，从巴西等地出售大豆带来的美元自然流入也会减缓。

And lastly, what really supports the dollar is that the fact that we have created $15,000,000,000,000 of debt in The US, outside The US, really means that when trade flows slows down, so the economy slows down in general in general, then this organic inflow of new dollars from selling soybeans basically from Brazil slows down.

但抱歉，你仍然必须偿还你的美元负债。

But, sorry, you still gotta service your dollar liability.

因此，就会出现对美元的抢购潮。

So what happens is that you have a rush towards dollars.

你经常看到，新兴市场货币对美元急剧贬值。

You often see that this emerging market currencies tend to weaken aggressively against the dollar.

因此，你建立了一个体系：当世界运行良好时，你会吸纳更多美元，并用它们购买美元资产。

So you have created a system where if the world is going fine, you take more dollars in and you buy dollar assets with it.

巴西和其他所有国家都是这样做的。

That's what Brazil and every other country is doing.

这支撑了美元债务。

That supports dollar debt.

对吧？

Right?

同时，这也降低了债券市场守卫者从债券角度采取行动的可能性。

And it reduces as well the likelihood of a bond vigilantes move from the bond perspective.

如果世界经济放缓，这些国家就必须去购买美元现金，以偿还其债务，因为它们的美元自然流入正在减少。

And if the world is slowing down, then what happens that these these countries will have to go and buy some dollar cash to be able to service their liabilities because their organic inflows of dollars is slowing down.

这支撑了美元，这也是债券市场守卫者交易的另一面。

That supports the dollar, which is the other leg of the bond vigilantes trade.

因此，对于一种储备货币来说，要维持债券伏击交易是非常困难的。

So it is really hard for a reserve currency to see the bond vigilantes trade sustained.

如果这种情况发生，那你很可能已经接近终点了。

If it happens, you're probably very close to the end.

坦率地说，目前没有任何证据表明你已经接近终点。

And frankly, there has been no evidence that you are anywhere close to the end.

但现在这意味着，实际上改变货币极其困难，对世界来说基本上是这样，因为

Now but then but that means that we actually will all it's super hard to change currencies, right, for worlds basically as as

是的。

Yes.

确实如此。

It is.

亚历克斯，从历史上看，荷兰曾拥有储备货币地位。

Alex, I mean, historically, Netherlands had the reserve currency.

葡萄牙也曾拥有储备货币地位。

Portugal had the reserve currency.

英国曾拥有储备货币地位。

The UK had the reserve currency.

在大多数情况下，需要一场战争或类似的重大事件才能改变储备货币。

In most cases, it needed a war or something along the line of that to change the reserve currency.

这并不是一种温和的领导权更迭。

It's not the friendly change of leadership in this.

是的。

Yeah.

但如果你再想想另外两位著名的投资者和交易员的话。

But there is if you if you now also think about another another well known well, two two other well known investors, traders, if you will.

保罗·都铎·琼斯，是的。

Paul Paul Tudor Jones Yeah.

他在宏观领域也非常强势。

Very strong in macro as well.

在过去几个月里，他一直说，唯一的出路就是通货膨胀。

He has been saying the last the last couple of months, look, the only the only the only route is inflation.

基本上，总结了他的观点。

Basically, sum up his view.

然后上周，我想是彼得·蒂尔说资本主义对年轻人不起作用。

Now then you have I think last week, it was Peter Thiel who said capitalism doesn't work for for youngsters.

他所指的是非常高的通货膨胀，嗯。

And what he's referring to is very high inflation Mhmm.

房地产市场失控，股市也失控。

Housing markets, which is a runaway market, the stock market, which is a runaway market.

如果你现在年轻，是的，你看到的是所有东西都遥不可及，所有东西都很昂贵。

If you're young at the moment, yeah, what you see is is everything is inaccessible and everything is expensive.

在我看来，这仍然是2008年量化宽松的结果。

This is, in my mind, still the result of.

并且在2020年被大幅放大。

QE 2008, and it has been amplified big time in 2020.

自2020年以来，欧洲、荷兰和美国的复合通货膨胀率为30%。

Compound inflation since 2020 in Europe, in Holland, in The US is 30%.

是的。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

这意味着我所说的金融游戏化。

What that means also is what what I call the gamification of finance.

在一定程度上，这是技术赋能的结果。

To an extent, technology enabled.

你知道，现在每个人手机上都有一个经纪应用，而且通胀和我们到目前为止在播客中讨论的动态没有变化，这促使人们以杠杆、高风险的方式投资资产，希望借此保护自己免受这种动态的影响。

You know, everyone is now having a brokerage app on their on on their phone, but also the idea of inflation and nothing changing to the dynamic that we have discussed so far in the podcast pushes people to invest in assets with leverage, with high risk, in the hope, yeah, that they can kind of protect themselves against this dynamic.

但它创造的是一种几乎让估值不再起作用的环境，因为你只需要进场即可。

But what it creates is is an environment almost whereby valuations don't don't play any role because you just need to get in.

是的。

And yes.

所以，再次提出这个问题：这种状况在多大程度上是可持续的？

And and so, again, this question, to what extent is this is sustainable?

这开始给人一种感觉，伙计们，这根本不可持续。

And it and it and it starts to give these these vibes of, guys, this is this is not sustainable.

在某个时刻，音乐会停止。

And and at some stage, the music stops.

但它是会怎样停止呢？

But but but how is it gonna stop?

听好了。

Look.

我有一个非常要好的朋友，极其聪明，从事金融行业，他跟我说：‘阿法，我觉得我脑子有问题，因为我的全部净资产都没投在Mach Seven或英伟达之类的东西上。’

Very close friend of mine, extremely intelligent person, and involved into finance, he said to me, Afa, I think I'm retarded because a 100% of my net worth is not in the Mach seven or Nvidia or whatever.

我说：‘你什么意思，你脑子有问题？’

I said, what do you mean you're retarded?

我说：‘不，不是的。’

And I'm like, no.

我只是在开玩笑。

I'm just joking.

但本质上，这个系统的设计是为了激励每个人不要成为最后一个参与者，而是趁房价还高时把手中的资产转手给下一个人，从而在过程中发财。

But basically, the system is created to incentivize anyone to be the the not the last guy, basically, to participate to the party and effectively offload their bags at a higher valuation to someone else and get rich along the way.

这让我大开眼界。

And this was this was eye opening.

这个人非常聪明。

This person is extremely smart.

他知道自己说的听起来很荒谬，但他也明白，这种激励机制的设计恰恰促使你去这么做。

He's aware that he's saying something that sounds ludicrous, but he also knows that the incentive scheme has been created in a way that you're actually incentivized to do that.

没错。

Yeah.

想想特朗普提出的50年按揭贷款的想法。

Take the Trump fifty year mortgage idea.

那是什么？

What is that?

这本质上是一种规避支付能力问题的方法。

That is basically a way to circumvent an affordability problem.

可负担性问题，利率在美国可以说是处于正常水平。

The affordability problem, the interest rates are are were high, are at a normal level in The US, one would say.

但由于房子的性质——我指的是，在金融领域，它们曾经是居住的地方，但在金融游戏化中，如你所说，它们已成为一种资产类别。

But then because of what are houses, I mean, in a financial they used to be a place where you live, but in the finance in the gamification of finances, you said, they have become an asset class.

所以人们将自己的房子视为一种投资，即使他们住在里面。

So people look at their houses as if they're an investment, even if they live into it.

我的意思是，这就是我们在这里讨论的内容。

I mean, this is what we're talking about here.

而且美国的房价也上涨得非常非常快。

And house prices have gone up very, very fast in The US as well.

因此，任何新人都买不起房子。

And so any new guy can't buy a house.

就这么简单。

It's that simple.

荷兰的情况也是如此。

And it's the same in The Netherlands.

在荷兰，情况可能更糟。

It's probably even worse in The Netherlands.

那么，50年期按揭是什么意思？

So what's a fifty year mortgage?

这无非是说，你将还款期限延长二十年，每月按揭款因此减少400美元，但这也意味着你额外二十年支付给银行的总利息可能高出50%。

It's nothing else than saying you will amortize your payments over twenty years additional, which will make your mortgage installment $400 a month cheaper, which also means that the total interest you will pay over the additional twenty years is probably 50% higher to the bank.

但人们反驳说：没错，你每月省下400美元，不如把这些钱投资标普500指数，至少能获得10%的年回报。

But the people people are actually saying as a rebuttal to that, oh, but you save $400 a month, so you might as well invest those in the S and P 500, which will return 10% a year at least.

请听我说完。

And you and hear me out.

这至少能带来10%的年回报。

This will return 10% a year at least.

长期来看，这些回报足以抵消你支付给银行的额外利息成本。

And that will more than make up for your increased interest cost to the bank over time.

那么，马蒂延，你怎么看？

So what do you hear, Martijn?

我的意思是，我听到人们对风险资产有着极其不切实际的高回报预期。

I mean, I hear that people have some ludicrously high return expectations for for risk assets.

是的。

Yeah.

作为参考，过去120年来，标普500的平均回报率约为无风险利率加4%，具体在3%到4%之间，取决于你所考察的时期——这正是合理的风险溢价水平，用以补偿投资者承担资本风险。

For reference, the S and P 500 has delivered over the last a hundred and twenty years risk free plus 4% as a return on average, three to 4% depending on the period you're looking at, which is where it would make sense to have a standard risk premium basically to be rewarded to put capital at risk.

对。

Right.

但现在人们却期望它能实现10%的回报。

And now people are expecting this to have 10.

如果你看看调查数据，人们说美联储利率将在3%左右，而他们预期标普500能带来13%的回报。

And if you look at the survey, if you look at the survey, people are saying the fed is gonna be around 3%, and I expect the S and P to deliver 13%.

我的意思是，这相当于无风险利率加10%。

I mean, that's like risk free plus 10.

这完全荒谬。

It's completely ludicrous.

但人们之所以有这样的预期，是因为这是他们唯一能看到的、跟上当前系统构建方式的方法。

But the reason why people are expecting this is because that is the only way they can see for them to keep up with how the system has been built.

这是唯一的方法。

It's the only way.

实际上，仅靠标普500指数每年13%的回报，他们是无法做到的。

And actually, they won't be able to do that only with the S and P at 13%.

他们还需要投资量子计算和其他任何东西， hoping 它们能上涨100%。

They will need to buy quantum computing and anything else in the hope that it goes up a 100%.

我们创造了一个系统，其中存在着巨大的、极其糟糕的激励机制，促使各方不断加杠杆，寄希望于系统能对足够多的人有效，从而让那些从中获益的政治人物能够再次当选。

And we have created a system where there is big bad, very bad incentive schemes for actors to effectively keep levering up the system and hoping that it works for a good enough majority of people, that politicians that are incentivizing incentivizing the system get actually voted in again.

问题是，如果你持有相反的观点，认为这种经济的基尼系数、差距和不平等将变得如此巨大，未来可能引发社会问题。

The problem is if you have an opposite opinion and you say this is not where the Gini coefficient of such an economy, the disparity, the inequality is gonna be so large, this might cause a social problem down the road.

如果你持有这种完全理性的观点，并试图以此为基础上台执政，一旦你停止快速印钞，你就相当于从孩子嘴里拿走了糖。

If you have this opinion, which is completely rational, and you try to get in power and get elected on the basis of this opinion, if you stop printing money that quickly, you will effectively take off the sugar of a child.

这 literally 就是你正在做的事情。

That's literally what you will be doing.

你会机械性地减缓经济。

You will mechanically slow down the economy.

你会让失业率更高。

You will have unemployment rate higher.

你会让资产价格下跌。

You will have asset prices going lower.

下一轮谁还会投票给你？

And who's gonna vote you in again at the next round?

没人会投票给你。

No one is going to vote you in.

这就是答案。

That is the answer.

所以你看。

And so look.

民主非常好。

Democracy is very nice.

大多数人投票给政治家，并且非常乐意一再重复这样做。

The majority of people vote for politicians, and they're very happy to keep doing this over and over again.

他们掌控着印钞机。

They are in control of the money printing press.

这主要是政府赤字。

That's government deficits mostly.

除非人们说：我想吃下这剂苦药，我要投票给那些推行像默克尔式紧缩政策的人，这将导致房价下跌、一些人失业、市场下跌40%。

And unless people say, I want to take the bad medicine, and I'm gonna vote for somebody who is butcher Merkel austerity to the moon, which is gonna lower your house prices, which is gonna make some people unemployed, which is gonna make the market go down 40%.

我希望人们能理解这一点。

I want people to understand this.

如果他们喜欢另一面，那就该预期这样的结果。

If they like the other side of things, that's what what they should expect.

你需要经历一段大规模的再平衡期，以便更好地分配财富，让新一代获得更公平的机会。

You need to have a big period of rebalancing so that you can distribute wealth better and allow the new generation to have a fairer chance pretty much.

这意味着整个系统必须进行大规模去杠杆化。

This means a massive deleveraging in the system.

抱歉，但我看不到哪位政治家会自愿做这件事，因为他们会在下一次选举中被迅速淘汰。

And sorry, but I can't see which politician is gonna volunteer to do this because they're gonna be cleansed at the next elections very, very quickly.

是的。

Yeah.

米尔顿·弗里德曼，有一段关于他的精彩视频，他说：不。

Milton Milton Friedman, he had a there's a fantastic clip with Milton Friedman where he says, no.

印钞和酗酒是一样的。

Printing money is is the same as, alcoholism.

好的效果先来，坏的效果随后出现，而且很难停下来。

The the the the good effects come first and the bad effects come later, and it's very difficult to to to stop.

现在，对年轻一代来说，可能有一件好事，那就是来自婴儿潮一代的财富转移。

Now, there's one thing that may be good for for the young generations is the the wealth transfer from the the boomers.

是的。

Yeah.

十年后，婴儿潮一代的处境会好得多。

The boomers are gonna be out in in in in a better place in, say, ten years time.

嗯。

Uh-huh.

而且他们住的是长屋，没错。

And they they are bucket long houses Yep.

里面拥有大量的资产。

With huge amount of equity in it.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我现在非常好奇其他世代会如何处理这些资产。

Now I'm very curious about what the other generations are going to do with that.

从政客的角度来看，这个计划看起来非常简单。

The plan looks very simple from the politicians.

继续这样做，希望途中不要发生社会事故，因为这确实更危险——这些人将看到继承权的到来，他们将成为继承这一系统后果的人。

Keep doing this and hope there's gonna be no social accident along the way because that is really riskier because these guys are gonna basically see the inheritance coming in, and they will be the people that will inherit the result of this system.

当然，除非遗产税高达50%。

Unless, of course, it gets taxed at 50% on an inheritance tax level.

那是另一个话题了。

That's a separate that's a separate discussion.

但他们确实会从中获益，我们希望不会发生社会动荡。

But they will see some benefit out of it, and we hope that there's gonna be no social accident.

是的。

Yeah.

坦白说，这是一个非常冒险的策略，但从这个位置上说起来很容易。

Frankly, it's a very risky strategy, but it's easy to say from this seat.

如果你是一名政客，明白这套系统如今是如何运作的，那么自愿站在对立面也会极其困难，因为这实际上会将经济和市场暴露在大规模去杠杆化的风险中。

If you were a politician and you understand that this is how this the system works today, it is also extremely hard to voluntarily take the other side of it because effectively, you will be exposing the economy and markets to a massive deleveraging.

现在，还有另一件与此相关的事。

Now now something else related to this.

我一直试图保持理性，我知道有些人也在努力保持理性。

And, you know, I have been trying to be rational and I know some other people have been trying to to rush to be rational.

我们提到的一些人，还有像迈克尔·伯里这样的家伙，你知道，你总是那个著名的看空推文的人。

Some of the people that we have mentioned, and also a guy like Michael Burry, you know, you always famous sell tweet.

对吧？

Right?

有些人试图逆风而行，但并不成功。

Some people have been trying to to piss against the wind and and and and and and not and not not successful.

如果这种动态在某个阶段停止，可能会出现黑天鹅事件。

If this dynamic is going to stop at some stage, maybe black swan.

对吧？

Right?

人们还习惯了这一点，我想把这一点和我们投资者以及你作为投资者联系起来。

What people have also gotten used to, and that is again, I want to make the link to us investors and you as as an investor.

存在。

There is.

身份标识。

The ID.

自2008年以来，无论怎样。

Since 2008 that whatever.

崩盘或小幅崩盘确实存在，比如我们在2023年第一季度经历的硅谷银行那样的小型银行业危机，但其他情况下，央行总会介入。

Crash or mini crash there is, whether it is the mini banking crisis that like we had in in q one twenty three, you know, with the Silicon Valley Bank, but other things that the central bank will always step in.

美联储的买入下跌策略，ID。

The Fed put the buy the dip ID.

我经常在想，这里我要问你一个问题：当某个一揽子计划被宣布时。

And what I have often thought, and and here here comes my question to you, a certain package is announced.

他们的标题是‘一揽子计划’，对吧？或者央行介入，或者向系统注入流动性。

They the headline is package, right, or the central bank steps in or liquidity is injected in the system.

说实话，我从未真正去研究过这些一揽子计划到底是什么样子。

You know, I have never really looked into what these packages actually look like.

我完全不知道，但你也能回想起2020年的情况。

I have no idea, but the headline and you recall it also from 2020.

标题就足够了。

The headline is enough.

但在我心里，其实没人真正明白这到底意味着什么。

But I in my mind, no one actually knows what it means.

我有时想，也许他们根本什么都没做。

And I sometimes thought, well, maybe they don't do anything.

根本没有所谓的方案。

There is no package.

只是有个 headline（标题）而已。

There is just a headline.

这很有趣。

It is funny.

你怎么说

How do you how

他们确实会采取行动。

do They do do actually do things.

会采取行动吗？

Do things?

他们会采取行动的。

They do things.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

所以这些通常与注入另一种形式的货币有关。

So these often these things have to do with injecting the other form of money.

这就是将银行间流动性注入系统。

So that's interbank liquidity into the system.

这是一种你我无法使用、但银行可以使用的资金。

So that's money that you and I can't use, but the banks can use.

然后突然间，他们拥有了更多的银行间流动性。

And then all of a sudden, they can they have a lot more of interbank liquidity.

这些是银行储备，他们的资产负债表构成发生了变化。

Those are bank reserves, and their balance sheet composition has changed.

他们拥有的资金，就像你我手中持有大量现金一样。

They have they basically as if you and I were sitting on a lot of cash, that's the same for banks.

央行通常会告诉他们：比如，这里有一个回购便利设施。

And the central bank is basically telling them often, here is a repo facility, for example.

如果你的抵押品有任何问题，就把它给我。

If you had any problem with your collateral, just give it to me.

你可以把它抵押给我，我会给你提供你需要的所有流动性。

You can post it to me, and I'll give you all the liquidity you want.

因此，他们知道，要么他们的资产负债表上有更多储备，要么他们可以从央行获得所需的任何流动性。

So they know that either they have more reserves on their balance sheet or that they can get as much liquidity they want from the central bank.

于是，他们的担忧突然间完全消失了。

And so all of a sudden, their worries are completely off.

对吧？

Right?

他们通常确实会采取第一步，那就是：哦，现在我的资产负债表上充满了这种闲置现金，也就是银行储备。

And they do generally, do the first step, which is, oh, now my balance sheet is full of this idle cash like thing, which is called bank reserves.

我是不是该拿出一些钱去买些债券，比如公司债券？

Should I take something out and buy some bonds, you know, some corporate bonds?

让我们承担一些风险，赚点钱吧，因为中央银行正在为我们提供流动性。

Let's take some risk here and make some money because the central bank is providing us with liquidity.

这通常会启动一个良性循环，我称之为投资组合再平衡效应。

This often kickstarts a virtuous cycle, which I call portfolio rebalancing effect.

因为如果银行开始购买所有公司债券，而这些公司债券的利差正在收窄，那么企业也能更容易获得信贷。

Because if a bank is starting to buy all the corporate bonds and these corporate spreads are getting tighter, then the corporate also has easier access to credit.

然后你可能会想，高收益投资者会进来购买该公司的高收益部分。

And then you might think that a high yield investor will come in and buy the high yield tranche of that company.

然后股权投资者会说，哦，实际上情况正在恢复正常。

And then the equity investor will say, oh, but you know, actually things are normalizing.

波动率很低，利差收窄，他们开始承担更多风险。

Volatility is low, spreads are tight, and they start taking more risks.

因此，这激励了一个良性循环。

So it incentivizes a virtuous cycle.

正如我们在播客开头所解释的那样，他们在向系统注入真正的通胀性货币时无所作为，但他们确实稳定了市场。

They do not they do nothing when it comes to injecting real inflationary money into the system as we explained at the beginning of the podcast, but they do calm down markets.

波动停止了，市场平静下来，投资者开始问自己：我到底在害怕什么？

The volatility stops, calms down, and then investors ask themselves, what am I actually afraid of here?

为什么我没有配置？

Why am I not allocated?

为什么我不买入？

Why am I not buying?

这正是启动整个过程的关键，没错。

Which is the process that kick started basically Yeah.

自2020年4月、5月以来，这个过程就从未停止过。

Since April, May 2020, and since then, it never stopped.

没错。

Yeah.

真正推动这一切的是增长，因为说估值过高很容易，但自2020年以来，盈利增长却非常强劲。

The real fuel to this is growth because it's easy to say valuations are extreme, but earnings growth has been fantastic since 2020.

而这正是我们花了多少钱的另一面。

And that is the flip side of how much money are we spending.

我的意思是，所花费的赤字规模实际上为经济提供了加速动力。

I mean, the amount of deficit that gets spent is basically turbo charges the economy.

我们讨论的是企业和家庭可支配资金的增加。

We're talking about more money at disposal of corporates and of households.

因此，支出上升，收益上升，收入也上升。

So spending goes up and earnings goes up and incomes go up.

突然间，标普500指数的收益增长率达到了10%甚至更高。

And all of a sudden, earnings growth, it's 10% and over that in the in the S and P 500.

因此，股票价格在很大程度上应该反映这一趋势。

So stocks should reflect that to a large extent.

此外，估值也变得更加昂贵了。

Then on top of it, valuations have also gotten more expensive.

但实际上，央行的干预主要是为了平抑波动性，并修复金融体系的基础设施，这主要指的是回购市场。

But effectively, you the the the central bank intervention is mostly about calming down volatility and also repairing the plumbing of the financial system, which is mostly the repo market.

如果银行无法在回购市场以可预测的利率抵押抵押品，那么整个固定收益市场的基础设施都将面临危险。

If banks cannot pledge collateral in the repo market at predictable rates, basically, then the entire infrastructure of the fixed income market is in danger.

如果这一点受到威胁，那就是整个体系的基础。

And if that is in danger, that's the basis of the system.

如果金字塔底层——即回购市场和债券市场——不稳定，你就无法在大宗商品或股票等领域正常运作。

You cannot operate in commodities or equities, etcetera, if that base of the pyramid, which is the repo market and the bond market, is not stable.

因此，央行的作用就是介入并稳定这一基础。

So what central banks come is they they do, they come, and they stabilize that.

然后，在良性循环中，人们开始在金字塔顶端承担风险。

And then virtuous in a virtuous cycle, people start taking risks on the top of the pyramid.

但这还不够。

But then that's not enough.

我的意思是，看看日本。

I mean, see Japan.

你需要的是强劲的名义增长。

What you need is strong nominal growth.

而在这个体系中，如何实现这种增长呢？在过去，这通常依靠人口增长和生产率增长。

And how you generate this in this system look, in the old days, it used to be population growth and productivity growth.

所以当时有很多孩子进入劳动力市场。

So you had a lot of kids entering the labor force.

平均每户家庭有两个或三个孩子。

We had two or three kids on average per family.

而且我们因为不断改进、优化工作方式，并将技术融入供应链，实现了生产力增长。

And we had productivity growth because we were becoming better and better and doing things and integrating the technology into our supply chains.

但九十年代以后，比如二月之后，生产力的边际增长实际上下降了。

But after the nineties, say after the February, that marginal increase in productivity actually came down.

你仍然会变得稍微更有生产力，但在提高生产力水平上很难取得突破。

You still become a little bit more productive, but it's hard to make a breakthrough in productivity rates.

也许人工智能，也许我们会看到转机。

Maybe AI, maybe we will see.

人口增长已经大幅萎缩，因为八十年代之后生育率显著下降，而孩子需要二十年才能长大并进入劳动力市场，对吧？

Population growth has been decimated because, yeah, well, the fertility rates have dropped materially after the eighties, and so it takes twenty year to make it twenty years old, right, to enter the labor force.

因此，两千年后，这一增长率迅速下滑。

And so after two thousand, that rate has declined rapidly.