Airbnb首席执行官谈人工智能为何将开创消费产品新时代

而且确实如此。

And Yeah.

其实是Reddit的首席执行官。

And actually the CEO of Reddit.

没错。

That's right.

史蒂夫·霍夫曼。

Steve Hoffman.

对吧？

Right?

等一下。

Wait.

是的。

Yeah.

史蒂夫，你刚才说的是Hipcamp吗？

Steve you're you're talking about Hipcamp?

不是。

No.

Hipmonk。

Hipmonk.

Hipmonk 就是个 Hipmonk。

Hipmonk was a Hipmonk

是个特别棒的机票预订平台。

was a really cool flight booking.

它是个特别棒的航班预订仪表盘。

It was a really cool flight booking dashboard.

它会根据‘痛苦指数’对航班进行排序。

It would it would rank the flights by pain, like a pain index.

是的。

So Yeah.

它会告诉你：虽然机票很便宜，不会让你掏空钱包，但得中转。

It would say, well, you're not gonna face financial pain because it's a really cheap flight, but you do have a stopover.

或者你得特别早到机场。

Or you do have to get to the the the airport super early.

它把这些因素全都综合起来，现在看来，这种东西周末就能用 vibe coding 做出来。

And so it would blend all these things together, and it's something that it feels like could be vibe coded over a weekend now.

完全没错。

Totally.

但奇怪的是，我打开 App Store 排行榜，看到的全是聊天机器人、Gemini、Claude，全是 AI 聊天应用。

And yet, it is weird that when I open up the App Store charts, I see chatbots, Gemini, Claude, and then it's just AI chat apps.

我们还没出现那种爆火的产品。

And we haven't had that breakout moment.

德米斯在 YC 的舞台上提到，现在企业里已经有了超强智能， vibe coding 也火了，Airbnb 六成代码都是 AI 写的，可我们就是没有一款让人疯狂玩的新 3A 游戏。

Demis was on stage at y c actually talking about the fact that it feels weird that we have this super intelligence in the enterprise and vibe coding and your 60% of Airbnb's code is written by AI now, and yet we don't have, like, a new triple a game or a new video game that everyone's playing.

我在想，这是不是创意不够？

And I'm wondering, like, is that a lack of creativity?

还是说，是因为不敢冒险，或者钱太多反而让人不敢放手一搏？

Is it a lack of risk taking that there's just too much money?

如果你在AI领域有本事，直接进企业市场太明显了，因为钱好赚、客户也好找，反倒是消费端风险更大？

It's too obvious to be able if you're good in AI, just go into enterprise because you'll just raise a bunch of money, get a bunch of customers, it's really easy to make money and it's more risk on in the consumer?

你觉得到底需要发生什么才行？

Like, what do you think needs to happen?

还是说现在的AI智能还不够强，可能下一个模型才会真正突破？

Or is it just the intelligence isn't quite there and maybe the next model is the one that unlocks it?

这真是个特别好的问题。

Well, this is such a good question.

我觉得现在有三四个因素在同时起作用。

I think there's like three or four factors going on.

我最近看到一条推文，说现在有六十家新的AI实验室正在成立。

The first factor is I saw a tweet recently that I think there's like 60 new neo labs being formed.

对。

Yeah.

我接触过不少这些研究员，他们大多想做的都是类似的事情。

And I've met a number of these researchers and a lot of them are interested in doing the same things.

是的

Yeah.

我注意到，这些团队大多全是搞AI的专家。

And I think what I'm noticing is most of these teams are purely AI people.

是的

Yeah.

他们团队里没有产品人员或设计师。

They don't have product people or designers on their team.

他们挑的都是像科研这类方向。

It's they're picking things like science.

他们挑的都是像编程这类方向。

They're picking things like coding.

对

Mhmm.

他们想打造一种全新的模型。

They're picking things like we wanna create a different type of model.

这很好，但我不觉得这60家公司都该盯着同一个问题。

This is great, but I don't know if all 60 companies should be doing the same problem.

所以你看到的是，没人特别关注消费端市场。

And so what you're seeing is you don't see a big focus on people wanting to do consumer.

有些人觉得AGI自己就能搞定消费市场。

I think some people think that the AGI can just figure out consumer.

我觉得这种想法有点太简单了。

I think that's maybe simple overly simplistic thinking.

你确实得对消费市场有自己的看法。

I do think you have to have a point of view about consumer.

所以这是第一点。

So I think that's the first point.

我觉得第二点是，硅谷现在比2007年我刚来的时候更看重潮流和感觉了，虽然那时候也差不多。

I think the second point is Silicon Valley has become more vibe and trend based than when I came to Silicon Valley 2007, although it was back then.

当人们看到企业级公司做得不错，就一股脑儿往里冲。

And one of the things I think when people see enterprise companies doing well, they go into it.

我觉得这背后有个自然的正向循环。

And I think there's this like natural flywheel.

另外一点是，我知道在Y Combinator，我们会教那些初创公司把其他公司当作自己的客户。

The other thing is I know in Y Combinator, for example, we teach the Y Combinator companies to use the other companies as their customers.

是的。

Yeah.

以前呢，我们会让他们当我们的产品用户。

Now back in the day, we would get them to use our product as consumers.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

但我觉得现在大家都明白了，让它们直接成为客户要高效得多。

But I think everyone's figured out actually it's way more efficient to get them to to become customers.

就像是五个做代码生成的初创公司彼此互相用对方的产品。

It's like five code five code gen startups all being

没错。

like Yes.

你跟我一起写代码。

You code with me.

对。

Yes.

就是这样。

Exactly.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我觉得企业市场很有道理，直到所有人都做企业市场。

And so I think enterprise makes a lot of sense until everyone does enterprise.

是的。

Yeah.

然后突然间，大家都说消费市场难，但你知道吗？其实企业市场也不容易。

And then suddenly, like, everyone's saying consumer's hard, but you know it's also hard?

比如，你要跟另外十家公司竞争，而且他们也在做跟你一样的企业级项目。

Like, competing with 10 other companies and enterprise doing your idea too.

这也不容易。

That's also hard.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得，现在视频生成模型中的图像质量有了巨大突破，图像二几乎就像 Claude 在代码上的那种飞跃。

I think additionally, the image in in video generation models are having a I think image two is almost like a Claude code breakthrough.

现在的 C Dance 视频模型表现实在太出色了。

It is so good now in the C Dance video models Yeah.

我觉得我们马上就要进入一个新时代，突破文字限制成为可能。

That I think we're about to enter this new era where suddenly going beyond text is possible.

我觉得在未来一两年内，你甚至能看到实时生成的 AI 界面。

I think you're going to even be able to see real time AI generated interface in the next year or two.

所以我的判断是，这一直是个企业级主导的时代。

So my prediction is this has been the era of enterprise.

就连ChatGPT取得这么大的成功，我预测大部分收入还是会流向Codex。

Even ChatGPT's breakout success, I would predict that most of the revenue is going to go be going to Codex.

这只是我的看法，可能不对，但想想现在有多少钱在流向Claude就知道了。

That's my I might be wrong, but just given how much money is going to Claude.

我觉得在未来两年，消费领域将迎来一场巨大的变革。

And I think in the next two years, you're going to see a massive revolution in consumer.

而且我觉得，得有几家公司在前面带头才行。

And I think you're going to need a couple of companies to lead the way.

我们需要一些参照物。

I think we need reference points.

我说的聊天机器人不是界面，别人可能会问：那到底什么是界面？

I mean, me saying the chatbots not the interface, people are probably asking, well, what is?

总得有人来做出这个示范。

And someone needs to be the one to do that.

我们也会尽力做好自己这部分。

I mean, we're going to try to do our part.

我不确定Airbnb会不会是那个开路的公司，但总得有人来做。

I'm not sure Airbnb will be the company to blaze the trail, but I think someone has to.

在以前的时代，可能是苹果，就像乔布斯那会儿，苹果本来就会干这种事。

I think in another era, it would have been Apple, like the Steve Jobs era, Apple would have done that.

也许苹果现在也会做，但按以往的风格，这种事本来就是他们最擅长的。

Maybe Apple will do that, but they would have been typically the company that would have done that.

对。

Yeah.

你有没有担心，大家都在做完全相同的东西？

Are you worried that everyone is working on the exact same thing?

我说的完全相同，指的是那些能替你操作电脑的智能代理，或者你看看iPhone应用商店的排行榜，再看看早期创业公司的市场。

And when I say exact same thing, I mean agents that can do things on your computer and or, well, you know, look at the iPhone app store chart or look at, look at the early stage startup market.

对吧？

Right?

很多公司，从云巨头到实验室，再到新兴的初创团队，都在做这个。

A lot of companies, you know, whether the full spectrum of companies from hyperscalers to labs to neo labs to

我其实没那么担心。

I I'm not I'm not too worried.

如果他们是第十家做同样事情的公司，我可能会为那些创业者有点担心。

I might be a little worried for the entrepreneurs if they're like the tenth company doing something.

彼得·蒂尔是我们最早的投资者之一，他写过一本叫《从零到一》的书，很多听众可能都读过。

I mean, like, Peter Thiel was one of our earliest investors and he used to he wrote this book Zero to One that a lot of people listening probably read.

他有句话说，竞争是失败者的游戏，你最好试着做点别人没在做的事。

He has a saying, Competition is for Losers, and you want to kind of try to do something that no one else is doing.

以前大家都在做App的时候，企业级市场反而是个空白。

Back in the day, that was enterprise because everyone was making an app.

现在我就得小心了，除非你能明显做得好很多，否则别轻易当第十家做同一件事的公司。

And now I just I have to be careful about being the tenth company doing something unless you're going to be a lot better decisively.

在这么拥挤的市场里，真的太难了。

It's just really, really hard in a crowded market.

所以你要学会反着来，别人往右，你就往左。

So you want to kind of zig when everyone else is zagging.

所以我倒不是特别担心，但也有点顾虑。

So I'm not too worried, but maybe a little bit.

我只想提醒创业者们，尽量去开辟属于自己的独特领域。

And I would just encourage entrepreneurs to try to to claim a space for their own.

顺便说一句，Airbnb 就是这样的例子。

And by the way, Airbnb was that.

2007 年的时候，人人都想做社交网络相关的东西，我们也是。

It was kinda accidental, but, like like, in 2007, everyone wanted to do, like, a social networking something.

当时我们确实也动过念头，想跟着做点社交网络的东西。

And we were like it was tempting for us to try to be a social networking something something as well.

结果阴差阳错，我们那个周末把气垫床搬出来，搞了个‘空中床垫加早餐’，别人觉得这主意烂透了。

It was accidental that we inflated through air beds one weekend and created air bed and breakfasts and people thought it was the worst idea ever.

没想到，这竟成了最烂却最成功的点子。

I guess it became like the worst idea that ever worked.

但我们开辟了自己的路，Uber 也是，我们压根没打算去模仿别人。

But we carved our own space as did Uber and we weren't trying to be anything else.

顺便说一句，OpenAI 当初也不是想模仿谁。

And so I kind of and by the way, OpenAI wasn't trying to be anyone else either.

他们可能有点像 DeepMind，但那时候 AI 根本不是重点。

Maybe they were a little bit like DeepMind, but AI was not the thing Yeah.

OpenAI 和 Anthropic 刚起步的时候。

When OpenAI and Thropic got started.

我觉得，不追风口确实有它的道理。

So I do think there is something about not chasing trends.

一旦成了风口，人就太多了，不如趁早找到自己的位置。

I think once it's a trend, it can be a little crowded and to try to claim out your own space.

我觉得，美国经济里还有很多领域根本还没被 AI 触及到。

And I would say there's so much of The US economy that AI hasn't yet touched.

对。

Yeah.

说到这个，你平时怎么跟设计师或者罗德岛设计学院的学生说，把非技术背景、非计算机科学的技能用在消费类产品上呢？

On that note, how are you talking to or how how would you talk to designers or RISD students about applying nontechnical skill sets or non AI disciplines, non computer science backgrounds to consumer?

我问这个问题是因为我觉得现在设计圈和大学里对AI的抵触情绪挺大的。

The reason I ask you is I feel like there's a lot of pushback against AI in design communities, in colleges right now broadly.

AI现在并不受欢迎，很多人担心会丢掉工作。

AI is not particularly popular, and there's a lot of fear of job loss.

但与此同时，你也知道，工具从来都在变，历史上一直如此。

But at the same time, you know, I'm sure, like, the tools have changed throughout the history.

我觉得你相信这里面有巨大的机会，但我担心有些人因为各种顾虑——比如这会不会取代某个工具、这东西是怎么做出来的、它是不是适合当前任务——而不敢去尝试。

And there's an and I feel like you believe that there's an incredible opportunity, but I'm worried that some people are not jumping on that opportunity because they have hesitations about various, oh, well, does this displace this tool or what you know, how was this made or, you know, is this the right tool for the job?

我到底该不该用它呢？

Should I even be using this?

是的。

Yeah.

我真的很担心，整整一代设计师、艺术家和创意工作者会决定对AI避而远之。

I'm really worried that an entire generation of designers, artists and creative people are going to decide to kind of sit out AI.

我认为这可能是我这一代人所见过的、对创意人群来说最大的机遇。

And I think it's the biggest opportunity for creative people in my lifetime.

顺便说一句，设计师们并不是第一次这么迟缓。

By the way, this is not the first time designers were late.

我们这些创意工作者和设计师，在互联网和网页兴起的时候也来得很晚。

We we creatives and designers were really late to the Internet and web.

回溯三十年到三十五年前，大多数顶尖设计师都没碰所谓的网页设计。

So going back thirty, thirty five years, most of the prestigious designers did not get into so called web design.

当时网页设计被认为档次低、没地位，所以那些资深人士都坚持做印刷设计。

Web design was considered a lower tier, lower status design and they stayed with print, all the established people.

他们根本没去追赶这波潮流。

And so they did not really chase design.

结果呢，因为很多优秀的设计师没进入网页领域，反而让不少其他人才填补了空缺，成了网页设计师，但这也造成了网页设计和工程之间的断层。

What ended up happening was because you had a lot of these really excellent designers that did not go into web design, I think what happened was a lot of there were a lot of good people that became web designers, but I think there became a gap between web design and engineering.

有些人可能根本没掌握完整的设计师技能。

You had people that maybe didn't have the full full design skill set.

于是，一个新角色就出现了——产品经理。

And what happened was this function emerged called product management.

产品管理，我并不是反对这个。

Product management, I'm not arguing against.

我们确实有产品经理。

We have product managers.

这非常重要。

It's very important.

但在工业设计领域，根本就没有产品经理。

But in industrial design, there's no product managers.

大部分时候，他们就是工业设计师。

For the most part, they're industrial designers.

在建筑领域，建筑师就是产品经理。

In architecture, the architect is the product manager.

所以我觉得，网页设计里出现的问题是，设计师的视野太狭窄了。

And so I think what ended up happening in web design, designers are very, very narrow.

中间出现了一个空缺。

There was a void.

产品经理填补了这个空缺。

Product managers filled that void.

我并不是反对这种模式。

I'm not arguing against that model.

但如果设计师不参与，最终你会发现，工程师和产品经理会替你做设计。

But I think if designers sit out, what you're going to see is engineers and product managers designing for them.

换个说法，从实际效果来看，设计师完全可以成为工程师和产品型人才。

And I think the counterpoint is designers can be engineers and product people for intents and purposes.

如果我现在才开始做Airbnb，我会直接用Vibe Coding和Claude Code来搞。

Said differently, if I were starting Airbnb today, I'd be Vibe Coding and Claude Code.

对。

Yeah.

我现在就在尝试这么做。

And I'm trying to do it now.

我这么做纯粹是出于兴趣。

I'm I'm doing it for fun.

我其实不会在Airbnb上做太多实质性的活儿。

I'm not really going to be doing anything productive Airbnb.

但如果我现在26岁，我会觉得自己是个技术型的人。

But if I was 26, I would have thought of myself as a technical person.

我觉得所有设计师都该把自己当成产品人，甚至前端工程师也行。

I think all designers should think of themselves as product people and as, you know, front end engineers if if anything.

所以我觉得这真是个好机会。

And so I think this is a boon.

我不觉得互联网的未来非得全是文字界面。

I don't think that the future of of the Internet has to be all text based.

它完全可以非常视觉化。

I think it can be very visual.

图片和视频生成模型能让你设计出极其丰富的界面。

I think that photo and video generation models allow you to design incredibly rich interfaces.

我觉得现在正是设计师和创意人士入局的最佳时机。

And this is I think the best time in the world for designers and creative people to get involved.

我觉得他们只是有点害怕。

I think they're just a little bit afraid.

只要我们能鼓励他们动手实践，很多设计师其实已经这样做了。

And I whatever we can do to enlist them to just get their hands dirty, many designers are.

我觉得应该有更多人参与进来，别总停留在最初的线框图阶段。

I just think more should get involved and not be in beginning getting out of typical wireframes.

直接开始写代码吧。

Just start coding.

你觉得呢？如果我们解决了创意人才在消费领域不足的问题，社会就能打造出真正出色的消费产品、体验和应用。

Do you think so assuming we solve this problem of not enough creative people working in consumer, we build we as a society build cool new consumer products and experiences and apps.

总该有那么一些东西配得上登上应用商店榜首吧。

There's something that deserves to be at the top of the app store.

确实如此。

Has Yes.

分发渠道和用户获取方式，是不是已经发生了结构性的变化？

Distribution and the acquisition of customers and and and users changed structurally?

如果你很擅长SEO和谷歌推广，还搞了个推荐计划的话。

I you were very good at SEO and Google and there was a referral program.

这些方法现在还管用吗？

Do those patterns still work?

是不是已经失效了？

Are they broken?

有没有一套新的方法，能让那些有好产品但需要广泛触达用户的人去执行？

Is there a new playbook that needs to be rolled out for anyone who has something that's great but they need to get it in the hands of consumers broadly?

我觉得我们需要新的策略。

I think I think we need new patterns.

这话说得挺有意思。

This is a funny saying.

我觉得硅谷里，变动最频繁的高管职位可能是首席营销官。

I think the highest turnover job of any executive at Silicon Valley might be the CMO.

我不确定，但你确实很少看到CFO频繁换人。

I don't know for sure, but like, you don't see a lot of turnover CFOs.

CTO的流动性也没那么高。

You don't see a lot of turnover of CTOs.

对。

Yeah.

比如亚马逊就是个典型例子，我觉得我的一个观点是，营销手段每隔几年就会变样。

But like Amazon was famously and I I don't know if part of my theory is that like what works in marketing changes every few years.

你得灵活应变，老方法很快就会过时。

You have to be adaptable and your old playbook gets outdated.

所以营销这行，说到底是最难干的职能之一。

So marketing is unfortunately one of the hardest functions.

我非常敬重做营销的人，因为一旦某种方法有效了，很快就会变得乏味，因为人人都在用。

I have a huge amount of respect for people marketing because once something works, it almost becomes stale because then everyone does it.

没错。

Yep.

比如网红营销，当初特别有效，但等大家都开始用，人们就渐渐厌倦了。

And so like influencer marketing was really successful until everyone did it and then people kind of tune it out.

这叫‘横幅盲区’。

It's this thing called banner blindness.

当你反复看到同一个东西，就会渐渐视而不见，所以得换新招数。

Banner blindness is after you see something over and over, you tend to be blind to it and so you need a new tactic.

我有几点想法。

So I think that a couple of thoughts.

第一，就像我们需要新的界面设计和创新的体验方式一样，我们也需要全新的营销方式。

Number one, I think that just like we need new interface design, new creative experiential approaches, we also need new types of marketing.

我现在一时也想不出具体是什么。

I don't know off the top of my head what that is.

很可能是一种以前没人做过的方法。

It's probably something we haven't done before.

我和乔以前就干过一些怪招，比如卖过收藏版的麦片盒，是的。

I mean, Joe and I, we did bizarre things like we sold collectible cereal boxes Mhmm.

社交媒体刚兴起的时候，我们就全力投入了。

And we, like when social media was new, we were all over social media.

那时候还有报纸，我们会去找记者，想办法让他们写关于我们。

And when when there were newspapers, we would hunt down reporters and, like, try to get them to write about us.

经常有人问我，你们是怎么拉到用户的？

But, like people ask me how do we get users?

我觉得2008年那些招数，现在全都不管用了。

I'm like all the tactics from 2008 aren't relevant anymore.

你得跟上时代，得找到新的办法。

So you got to be relevant and you got to find new tactics.

不过第二点，你说得对。

The second thing I'd say though is you're right.

现在的分发渠道已经成熟了。

The distribution is mature.

我们刚做Airbnb的时候，App Store还很新。

When we started Airbnb, the App Store was young.

事实上，那时候互联网本身也才刚起步。

In fact, the Internet was still young.

我的意思是，那时候你只要做个网站，就能搭上互联网增长的顺风车。

I mean we could just you could launch a website and just ride the growth of the Internet.

但现在做起来很难了。

And it's hard.

互联网的增长速度已经不像从前那样了。

The Internet is not growing like it did before.

以前每年都有数亿新用户加入互联网。

In other words, people were coming on to the Internet in hundreds of millions a year, new users.

所以我觉得，面向消费者的渠道已经成熟了。

So I do think distribution for consumers mature.

与此同时，App Store里最顶尖的应用还是新出的产品。

At the same time, the top apps in the App Store are new apps.

这些应用大多是聊天机器人。

They're mostly chatbots.

这说明，只要你做出真正突破性的创新，用户还是能找到你的。

So what that tells you if you do something truly breakthrough and revolutionary, consumers will still probably find it.

所以我认为有两个原则：一是做点真正颠覆性的东西，用户自然会找到你。

And so that's I think the two principles are do something so revolutionary, consumers will find you.

第二，你得自己摸索新的方法，凡是老一套的，大概都已经过时了。

And number two, you're going have to find your own new tactics and, you know, anything that is standard is probably stale.

说得真好。

Well said.

我还有一个观点。

I have one more.

是的。

But Yeah.

展望未来，你已经抓住了短租市场的增长浪潮。

Looking out into the future, you've ridden the growth of the short term rental market.

现在你已经主导了这个市场。

You dominate it now.

你觉得最大的机会是继续把产品做到极致，顺势享受市场的持续增长，还是认为 Airbnb 还能找到另一个像短租这么大的新市场？

Is is the biggest opportunity to just continue to make the best product in the category, ride the continued growth of it, or do you think there's another STR size market for Airbnb?

我认为 Airbnb 最大的机会在于超越我们的核心业务。

I think the biggest opportunity for Airbnb is to go beyond our core business.

说实话，如果我们把其他业务都剔除掉，单算平台上的总预订金额，我们的核心业务年营收已经接近一千亿美元了。

I do think, you know, our core business does close to a $100,000,000,000 in gross sales if you net out all the other businesses, gross booking value, the total amount of reservations going through the site.

我觉得这个数字有一天可能会翻倍。

I think that could probably double one day.

我不确定这一天什么时候会来，但现在每有一个住 Airbnb 的人，就有八九个人住酒店。

I don't know how long that one day is, but for every person who stays in Airbnb, eight or nine stay in a hotel.

我觉得我们最终能争取到更多人选择 Airbnb。

I think we can get one extra person in an Airbnb eventually.

如果能做到这一点，营收突破两千亿美元是有可能的。

And I think that can get you to 200,000,000,000.

我觉得比 Airbnb 更大的市场其实是酒店业。

I think there's a market much larger than Airbnb, which is hotels.

酒店市场的规模，大概是 Airbnb 的八到九倍。

Again, hotels about eight or nine times the size of Airbnb.

我们不太可能成为以酒店为主的平台，但确实在更积极地拓展酒店业务。

I don't think we'll ever be a hotel dominant site, but we are going more aggressive into hotels.

有趣的是，全球大约一半的酒店都是独立经营的小型精品酒店。

A fun thing is that about half the hotels in the world are independents and boutiques.

它们不属于任何连锁品牌。

They're not chain hotels.

这些酒店对入驻在线旅行社不太满意，因为它们要支付比连锁酒店更高的佣金。

And they're not really happy listing on the OTAs because they pay a higher commission to chains.

很多独立酒店迫于压力，或者觉得别无选择，只能加入万豪、希尔顿这些品牌的特许经营体系，因为它们有会员忠诚计划。

A lot of these independent hotels are being forced or they feel like their hand is being forced to franchise to Marriott, to Hilton and other brands because they have loyalty programs.

这样它们就能谈下来更低的佣金。

They can negotiate lower commissions.

所以我们觉得，我们可以成为这些精品独立酒店的分销渠道。

So we think we can be a distribution channel for these boutiques' independents.

这可是个价值数十亿美元的市场。

That is a multibillion dollar market.

我觉得另一个方向是服务行业。

I think another one would be services.

目前还没有哪个平台能像亚马逊那样主导服务市场。

There's no Amazon for services.

你想啊，就像你按一下按钮，就有车来接你

And, you know, think about like you can hit a button and a car can pick

你一样。

you up.

你按一下按钮，食物就能送到你手上。

You can hit a button and food can be delivered to you.

那要是按一下按钮，还能实现其他八十种功能呢？

But what about hitting a button and having 80 other things possible?

我不确定单一市场有多大，但如果你把这八十种不同的服务领域加起来，在我看来，这也是一个相当可观的市场。

You know, I don't know if any one market is large, but if you add up the 80 different service verticals, that to me is another pretty big market.

最后一点可能是关于长住，也就是停留时间超过三十天的情况。

And then maybe the last one is like living, stays longer than thirty days.

现在越来越多的人靠笔记本电脑工作。

More and more people have a job via laptop.

越来越多的人过着游牧式的生活。

More people are nomadic.

更多人开始频繁搬迁和移动。

More people are moving around.

这又是另一个巨大的市场。

That's another really big market.

所以我觉得，对于Airbnb来说，我们正打算拓展到很多不同的领域，未来的主要增长也将会来自这些方面。

So I think for Airbnb, we're looking at really expanding to a lot of different categories, and I think that's where most of the growth is gonna be in the future.

旧金山的广告牌对你有影响吗？

Do billboards in San Francisco work on you?

回到营销这个话题，这确实是老生常谈了，但我完全同意你的看法。

Going back to marketing, it's one of these old things where, like, yes, I I completely agree with you.

当年五十年代第一个做户外广告的首席营销官，估计都成了传奇，相关故事都被写进书里了。

Like the the the CMO who did the first billboard campaign back in the fifties probably printed legend, you know, books written about them.

那个户外广告活动啊，

Well, the billboard campaign that

是卖出去了。

were Sell

现在不做了。

off now.

几年前，他们一口气买了这么多广告牌，人都傻了，

Couple years was just buy so many billboards that people are like, wait.

这家公司怎么买得起这么多广告牌？

How did this company buy so many billboards?

对吧？

Right?

所以我很好奇，你对营销的看法是不是认为这些趋势都是循环的？现在网红营销可能过气了，但五到十年后肯定还会回来。

And so I'm wondering, is your is your thesis on marketing that the the these things go in cycles and, yes, we might be out of the influencer marketing meta right now, but it's gonna come back in five, ten years.

谁知道呢？

Who knows?

有可能。

That's possible.

或者说是起起落落？

Or or is it rise and fall

我觉得再也不会了。

I think then never again.

我觉得这些渠道确实如此。

I think these channels Yeah.

不过，它们并没有消失。

Though, they they don't go away.

对。

Yeah.

只是不会再像以前那样，只要这么做，就能爆红了。

They just stop being like, if you do this thing, you're gonna grow like crazy.

对。

Yeah.

你还是得做这件事，但现在已经不是一门艺术了。

You still need to do that thing, but it's no longer an art.

好的。

Okay.

对。

Yeah.

你怎么看？

What do you think?

你们啊

You guys

好的。

Okay.

有一件事我得承认。

So so one thing I have to acknowledge

对。

Yeah.

我觉得，我们所有人都在不知不觉中被广告影响得比我们愿意承认的要多。

Is I think all of us advertising works better on us than we admit.

对。

Yep.

说实话，我们花在各种广告上的钱可真不少，我有时候会想，这些广告真能影响到人吗？

I I honestly I I we we spend a lot on like all these ads and I kind of think to myself, does do these really influence people?

是的。

Yeah.

要是真能影响的话……

Like and if they do.

如果广告没用，我们也不会每年花上百亿美元在上面了。

If they didn't, we wouldn't be spending like a billion dollars a year in advertising.

所以我得承认，广告对我们的影响，其实比我们意识到的要大得多。

So I wanna admit that advertising does influence us more than we realize.

前几天还有人说，那种广告根本不会改变我的想法。

There's I think last days that show like, oh, that doesn't change my mind.

但你要是看到某个东西七次，哪怕你不想相信，也可能不知不觉就信了。

But you see something seven times and it probably even if you don't wanna believe it, you might start believing it.

对。

Yep.

所以很明显，这招很管用。

So clearly, works.

对。

Yep.

不过我觉得，新点子的投资回报率确实高得多。

I do think though the ROI of new ideas works a lot better.

举个例子，我们花在广告上的钱不少，但效果最好的一次营销，其实是《芭比》电影上映时，我们租了加州马里布的一栋房子。

Just for example, we spend a lot on advertising, but the most popular marketing we've ever done is like when the Barbie movie came out, we took a house in Malibu.

把它改成了芭比的梦幻小屋。

We turned to Barbie Malibu Dreamhouse

是的。

Yeah.

当时那房子是全新的，整个互联网都在讨论这件事。

And it was like new and the whole internet talked about it.

对。

Yep.

那次的回报率比我们做过的任何广告都高。

And the ROI of that was better than any ad we've ever done.

对吧？

Right?

对。

Yep.

我们确实做过类似的事情。

We've done things like that.

所以我觉得，搞点疯狂点、有点出格的举动，反而容易被人注意到。

So I do think doing kind of crazy, slightly unhinged things that people notice.

我的意思是，你们之所以成功，就是因为你们与众不同。

Like, I mean, you guys are successful because you're different.

对吧？

Right?

我觉得是这样。

I think.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得搞营销的关键就在于与众不同。

I think being different is the key to marketing.

如果你做一块广告牌，人们多多少少会受到影响。

And so if you have a billboard, people are probably influenced.

但如果你的广告牌跟别的不一样，效果就会更好。

But if you if it looks different than another billboard, it's gonna work.

所以我认为营销的核心就是与众不同，因为你必须脱颖而出。

So I think the key to marketing is to be different because you gotta stand out.

对。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

红牛的鲍姆加特纳太空跳伞，我觉得回报率高得离谱，大概有一千倍吧。

The the the the Red Bull Baumgartner, the the skydive from space is, I think, like a thousand x ROI.

我觉得他们花的钱还不到一百万美元。

I think they spent less than a million dollars on that.

而且我觉得这段视频的播放量有十亿次左右。

And it would it I think it has a billion views or something like that.

太空。

Space.

这真是个绝佳的例子。

Great example of that.

太空。

Space.

就十来个人

It's like 10 people

他们就这么做了。

did that.

对。

Yeah.

所以他们没拍续集，也没接着拍第三部、第四部。

That's why they didn't do a sequel and then another one and another one.

他们转而去做了别的事情。

They went and found something else.

咱们不如让一架飞机穿过隧道，或者让热气球倒着飞，对吧。

Let's put a plane through a tunnel or fly a, you know Yes.

让热气球倒过来飞之类的。

A hot air balloon upside down or something.

找个飞艇挂到Airbnb上，我就能去体验了。

Get a blimp get a blimp on Airbnb that I can go Oh.

来一次天空巡游。

On a sky cruise.

在飞艇里睡觉。

Sleeping in a blimp.

是的。

Yeah.

那确实是个很棒的主意。

That would be that would be a that would be a very good idea.

也许我们可以聊聊这个。

Maybe we can talk about.

我太想试试了。

I'd love that.

干吧。

Ship it.

当然了。

Definitely.

对。

Yeah.

不知道得花多久时间

Don't know how long it takes

到洛杉矶到旧金山啊。

to get to Yeah.

从洛杉矶到旧金山。

LA to San Francisco.

如果要花我两天、三天，但沿途风景美得不得了。

If it takes me two days, three days, but I have a beautiful view.

你们会这么做吗？

Would you guys do that?

我

I

我肯定会。

would 100%

我也会。

do that.

我们经常说这种话，比如‘哦，对啊’。

I So so so so we say things like this all the time where we're like, oh, yeah.

我们肯定会做点什么的。

Like, we'll definitely, like, do do something.

但很多时候，时间实在排不开。

Oftentimes, it's hard to schedule.

不过我们已经聊了快一年的飞艇了。

But we have been talking about blimps for, an over a year.

我们知道完全可以播点什么。

We know we can broadcast something.

一直想搞个飞艇的活动。

We've been having To happen with a blimp.

我们让嘉宾从他们的私人飞机上连线。

We've having guests call in from their jets

没错。

Yes.

有了星链，网络连接特别稳定。

With Starlink and the connection is perfect.

确实如此。

It is.

以至于我们聊天室里的人都不知道说话的人其实是在飞机上。

So much so that people in our chat sometimes don't know that the person's on a jet.

好的。

Okay.

你先说。

You first.

好的。

Okay.

Airbnb 和 TBPN 要联手搞一个飞艇合作项目。

Airbnb and TBPN That's are gonna work together on a blimp partnership.

对。

Yes.

你们要坐飞艇在全国范围内做直播。

You guys are gonna broadcast across the country on a blimp.

这主意太棒了。

I love it.

还有Airbnb

And Airbnb

也会参与进来。

is gonna be a part of that.

对。

Yeah.

我

I

想让这件事成真。

wanna make this work.

咱们咱们咱们

Let's let's Let's

咱们一起想办法解决吧。

let's figure it out.

我们再聊。

We'll talk.

太棒了。

Cool cooks.

太好了。

Fantastic.

非常感谢你前来，也感谢你更新信息。

Well, thank you so much for coming Thanks for update.

周末愉快，我们改天再联系。

Have a great weekend, and we'll talk to you soon.

你真是行家。

You're the man.

好的。

Alright.

再见。

Bye.

再见，各位。

Bye, guys.