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疯狂的周末，有一些非常棒的白色絮状物，但也有一些令人失望的消息。
Wild wild weekend, some really great white pilling stuff, some very disappointing news.
我们会一一讨论。
We'll go through it all.
这个周末我读了很多不同的文章，试图把它们整合成今天的通讯稿，但我觉得我们可以先随意聊聊，从周五我们稍微提到的阿尔忒弥斯二号任务开始。
I read a bunch of different, pieces this weekend, tried to sort of tie them together into the newsletter today, but thought we could kind of go all over the place starting with, what we talked about a little bit on Friday was the Artemis II mission.
它原定于太平洋时间下午5点07分着陆，结果正好在下午5点07分着陆，精确到分钟。
It was scheduled to land at 05:07PM Pacific Time, and it landed exactly at 05:07PM Pacific Time, like within the exact minute.
大家都开玩笑说，负责这个的人应该去管Uber Eats或者DoorDash的配送时间，因为实在太准了。
Everyone was joking, like whoever's in charge of this should be in charge of Uber Eats delivery times or something like that or DoorDash delivery times, because it was remarkably accurate.
我想他们从几天前，甚至从任务一开始就已经预测到了。
I think they predicted it like days or maybe since the beginning of the mission.
一切都完美地按计划进行。
Like everything was timed out perfectly.
你有什么要补充的吗？
Did you have anything?
是的。
Yeah.
你的意思是，这些事情其实是可以预测的，对吧？
Mean, you can like predict these things, right?
是的。
Yeah.
这属于物理学。
It is physics.
是的。
Yeah.
但即便如此，我的意思是
But still, I mean
我们知道未来一万年内的下一次日食会发生什么时候。
We know, you know when the next solar eclipse will be for the next ten thousand years.
是的，是的，一万年。
Yeah, yeah, ten thousand years.
但我不知道。
But I don't know.
仍然觉得奇怪，竟然没有任何灵活性。
It still feels remarkable that there no that there's no flexibility.
但这是在起飞前预测到的吗？
But was that predicted pre takeoff?
是的，对吧？
Yeah, right?
我不知道。
I don't know.
我们应该深入调查一下
We should dig
还是说是在他们离开后才更新的？
into Or was that updated after they had exited?
是的。
Yeah.
因为我觉得应该会有关于……
Because think there'd
比如，这个引擎点火稍微多了一点或者少了一点，所以我们不得不做个小调整。
be something about, like, oh, like, this engine fired a little bit too much or a little bit so we had to make a small adjustment.
我不确定。
I don't know.
我们得想办法弄清楚。
We'll have to we'll have to figure it out.
不管怎样，反应都非常非常积极。
Anyway, the the reactions were really, really positive.
埃隆·马斯克说：欢迎NASA宇航员回家。
Elon Musk said, welcome home to the NASA astronauts.
欢迎回家，里德、维克托、克里斯蒂娜、杰里米，阿耳忒弥斯二号宇航员已于美国东部时间晚上8点07分成功溅落，圆满结束了他们具有历史意义的十天登月任务。
Welcome home, Reed, Victor, Christina, Jeremy, the Artemis II astronauts have splashed down at 08:07PM ET, bringing bringing their historic ten day mission around the moon to an end.
我全程直播观看了，真的很棒。
I watched it live, and it was yeah.
这是一个非凡的时刻。
It was a remarkable moment.
我的一生中从未经历过这样的事。
I mean, we haven't done this in my lifetime.
我们已经很久没有做过这样的事了。
We haven't done this in a in a very long time.
所以，里德·韦斯曼说：谢谢，埃隆·马斯克。
So, Reed Wiseman says, thank you, Elon Musk.
当太阳从月球后方落下时，我们四人远远地瞥见了火星的红色光芒，我们心中毫无怀疑，我们最杰出的智慧将很快让我们抵达那里。
The four of us glimpsed the red hues of Mars far in the distance as the sun slipped behind the moon, and there was zero doubt in our minds that the creative genius of our greatest minds will have us there very soon.
我们出发吧。
Let's go.
所以我真的很喜欢这一点。
And so I really like this.
这太棒了。
This is great.
不。
No.
不。
No.
不。
No.
这确实令人惊叹。
It it it is remarkable.
这之所以令人鼓舞，有几个原因，因为我觉得，人们之前并没有公开表达怀疑。
And this was inspiring for a few different reasons because I felt like, you know, people were not voicing skepticism publicly beforehand.
比如，你不想破坏好运，也不想对任何事持负面态度，这很合理。
Like, you don't want to jinx it, and also you don't want be negative about anything, and it makes sense.
但我们在私下里接触的太空领域人士事先都非常紧张。
But the space people we talked to off air ahead of time were extremely nervous.
是的。
Yeah.
不只是太空领域。
Not not even just the space.
每个人都有不同的看法，觉得这很冒险。
There were people in every single person had a different take on like, oh, this seems risky.
这太激进了。
This is aggressive.
进展得太快了。
This has moved very quickly.
政府很久没有做过这样的事情了。
The government hasn't done something like this in a long time.
那么美国能成功吗？
And so can America pull this off?
比如在美国，人们一直担心政府是否能有效完成任务。
Like America, there's been a lot of worry about the government being able to do things effectively.
就像许多政府项目一样，之前已经出现了延误和成本超支。
And like all government like many government projects, there had been delays and cost overruns.
这个国家一直极度分裂。
The country has been extremely divided.
人人都知道这一点。
Everyone knows this.
而这项任务特别需要来自不同背景和政治立场的美国人团结起来，共同实现一个目标。
And this mission in particular required Americans from all different backgrounds and political persuasions to come together to work on a common goal.
我们见证了一些这样的情况。
And we saw some of this.
我们可以稍后再谈这个。
We we can talk about it later.
但就连NASA局长贾里德·艾萨克曼在获得确认之前也经历了一番反复。
But even even NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman had been through his own back and forth on the way to getting confirmation.
因此，即使相对于这项早已筹备多年的任务，他也算是刚上任不久。
And so he was, like, sort of new on the job even relative to this mission, which, of course, has been in the works for years.
所以当时有非常多不同的因素。
And so there were a lot of different things.
私营航天业也带来了压力。
There's also the pressure from the private space industry.
在这种情况下，太空发射系统能成功吗？
Can the SLS work in this case?
嗯，一切都顺利进行了，效果非常好。
Well, everything did and it was very, very good.
有很多可能出错的地方。
There were lots of things that could go wrong.
就连苹果公司的高管似乎也对此有些紧张。
Even the Apple executives seemed to be a little bit sort of nervous about this.
这里有一篇帖子说
There's a post in here that
我们很想知道他们是如何测试那个降落伞系统的。
we would love call to know how they test that parachute system.
我认为他们是从飞机上发射的之类的。
I think they launch it off of a plane or something.
我不知道。
I don't know.
他们是怎么
How do they
对，对。
do Yeah, yeah.
我知道。
I know.
我相信一定有很好的解释。
I'm sure there's a good answer.
是的。
Yeah.
但你得想象一下，这是三个降落伞，因为即使只有两个，它也可能幸存下来。
You But have to imagine that it's three parachutes because it can probably survive with just two.
是的。
Yeah.
实际上，降落伞分为两个阶段。
And there's actually two stages of parachutes.
首先有一组降落伞，然后它们分离，当大气层变得更稠密时，会再展开另一组降落伞，我想是这样的。
So there's one set, and then these break away, and then there's a new set of parachutes once the atmosphere gets thicker, I believe.
但看看那个。
But look at that.
它完美地打开了，多么鼓舞人心的画面。
It opens up perfectly and what an inspiring image.
再看看那个。
Look at that.
苹果公司的贾尔斯说：欢迎阿耳忒弥斯二号机组回家，感谢NASA宇航员将iPhone带上了太空。
Jaws over at Apple said, welcome home to the Artemis II crew honored that NASA astronauts brought iPhone to space with them.
不是iPhone。
Not the iPhone.
也不是几部iPhone。
Not a couple of iPhones.
iPhone。
IPhone.
这是苹果官方的品牌。
This is in the official Apple brand.
你不能说‘the iPhone’。
You don't say the iPhone.
你应该说‘iPhone’。
You say iPhone.
但他们把iPhone带到了太空。
But they brought iPhone to space with them.
iPhone的一小步。
One small step for iPhone.
太空的一大步。
One giant leap for space.
所以NASA在4月4日发布了这条消息，说这种景象感觉完全不同。
So NASA posted this on April 4, said this view just hits different.
他们在继续深入太空前往月球的过程中，花了一刻钟回望地球，并展示了用iPhone拍摄的地球照片——我想说是用iPhone拍的自拍。
They took a moment to look back at Earth as they continued deep into space toward the moon, and they showed, photos, basically selfies taken with the iPhone or with iPhone, I guess, of the Earth.
然后蒂姆·库克一直等到他们安全着陆。
And and then Tim Cook waited until they landed safely.
祝贺阿耳忒弥斯二号任务圆满成功。
Congratulations to Artemis II on a successful mission.
你们以优美的方式捕捉到了太空与我们星球的壮丽景象，将iPhone摄影推向了新的高度，我们非常感谢你们与全世界分享这些画面。
You captured the wonders of space and our planet beautifully, taking iPhone photography to new heights, and we're grateful you shared it with the world.
你们的工作继续激励着我们所有人去不同地思考。
Your work continues to inspire us all to think different.
欢迎回家。
Welcome home.
所以亚伦指出，有大约300万次观看量的人注意到，苹果公司直到宇航员安全着陆后才对阿耳忒弥斯二号的iPhone照片做出回应。
And so Aaron pointed out, to the tune of 3,000,000 views, noticed that Apple didn't comment on the iPhone pictures for Artemis II until the crew safely landed.
因此，所有人都屏息以待，期盼着好的结果，而这正是最终发生的情况。
So everyone was like on the edge of their seats hoping for the good outcome, and that's exactly what happened.
这非常、非常关键，但在很多方面，这展现了美国最优秀的一面。
It was very, very high stakes, but it was also in many ways America at its best.
就连没完没了的文化战争也为这件事让了路。
Even the never ending culture war took a back seat to this.
杰里科·艾萨克曼和一位不支持的人之间发生了一场有趣的来回互动，是的，他们删除了那条帖子。
There was this interesting, back and forth between Jericho Isaacman and someone who is not a fan of yes, they deleted the post.
但阿耳忒弥斯二号的宇航员们正在听查佩尔·罗安的《粉红小马》。
But the Artemis II crew was listening to Pink Pony Club by Chapel Roan.
而这与某人的政治立场不符。
And that didn't align with someone's politics.
于是他们说，这太荒谬了。
And so they said, like, this is ridiculous.
为什么？
Why?
他们因为可能列出
How they Because possibly list
像最近五次在节目中出现的乐队，是的。
like the last five bands that have come up on the show Yeah.
听起来像是个虚构的乐队。
Sounds like a made up band.
Chapel Road？
Chapel Road?
哦，她很火。
Oh, she's big.
杰里科·艾萨克曼说：嘿，咱们别再搞政治言论了。
Jared Isaacman was like, hey, let's cool it with the political rhetoric.
虽然这不是我选择的音乐，但宇航员们乘坐着一场受控的爆炸飞向太空，前往了比以往任何人类都更远离地球的地方，而他们周围的一切都在试图杀死他们。
It's not my choice in music, but the astronauts rode a controlled explosion into space on a journey farther away from Earth than any human before with everything around them trying to kill them.
这么说有点夸张，但确实如此。
That's a crazy way to put it, but it's true.
他们想听什么歌都可以。
They can listen to whatever song they want.
我认为在所有人都如此分裂的时候，这是一个非常重要时刻。
And I thought that was a really, really, really important moment when everyone is so divided.
所以这项工作远未完成。
And so the job is very much not finished.
计划于2028年登月的阿尔忒弥斯三号任务将是一个更大的挑战。
Artemis III, which aims to land on the moon in 2028, will be a much bigger challenge.
今天《华尔街日报》提供了一些额外的背景信息，我们可以谈谈阿尔忒弥斯二号和阿尔忒弥斯三号之间的区别，以及这项计划的走向。
And there's some extra context today in The Wall Street Journal, and we can talk about the difference between Artemis II and Artemis III and and sort of where this is going.
所以该报写道，米卡·梅登伯格表示，阿尔忒弥斯二号是一场盛事。
So the the journal writes, Micah Maidenberg says, Artemis II is a blockbuster.
登月将困难得多。
Landing on the moon will be a lot harder.
因此，绕月飞行可能反而成为美国宇航局阿尔忒弥斯计划中相对简单的部分。
And so flying around the moon may end up being the easy part for NASA's Artemis program.
本月的阿尔忒弥斯二号任务吸引了全球关注，因为该机构成功执行了有史以来最远距离的载人太空飞行，也是自20世纪70年代以来首次载人登月任务。
This month's Artemis II flight captivated people around the world as the agency pulled off the deepest human spaceflight ever recorded and the first crewed mission to the moon since nineteen seventies.
NASA及其承包商现在必须完成一系列冲刺任务，最终目标是在2028年实现宇航员登月。
NASA and its contractors must now get through a series of sprints that would culminate in astronauts landing on the lunar surface in 2028.
特朗普总统去年签署了一项行政命令，明确了这一期望。
President Trump outlined that expectation in an executive order he signed last year.
NASA副管理员阿米特·卡什特里亚表示：‘通往月球表面的道路已经打开，但前方的工作比过去更加艰巨。’
The path to the lunar surface is open, but the work ahead is greater than the work behind us, said NASA associate administrator, Amit Kashtria.
计划于明年进行的阿耳忒弥斯三号任务将重点测试猎户座飞船与月球着陆器在近地轨道的对接，这是未来登月任务的先决步骤。
Artemis three, planned for next year, will focus on docking the Orion spacecraft with lunar landers in low Earth orbit, a precursor to a planned landing on the moon.
一些现任和前任NASA航天飞行官员对2028年实现登月持怀疑态度，认为NASA及相关公司还需克服众多技术和操作上的关键里程碑。
Some current and former NASA spaceflight officials are skeptical that a 2028 landing will be possible given the technical and operational milestones the agency and companies involved need to overcome.
面临的挑战包括：证明SpaceX和蓝色起源公司正在开发的月球着陆器能够安全运送宇航员，以及准备由Axiom Space公司研制的新一代宇航服。
Among the challenges, showing one or both of the moon landers that SpaceX and Blue Origin have been developing can safely transport astronauts and preparing new spacesuits made by Axiom Space.
ULA需要为NASA的SLS火箭开发上面级推进系统。
ULA needs to develop upper stages for NASA's SLS rocket.
太空任务常常
Space missions often
他们得花上好几年，宇航服上到处都是标志。
take They gotta years do, logos all over the space suit.
应该如此。
Should.
私营公司应该能够通过它们来帮助资助这项任务。
Well Private companies should be able to help fund the mission by They
确实应该。
really should.
这里还有另一篇报道，关于那段在阿尔忒弥斯二号任务中飘浮的能多益罐子的热门视频。
And there's another story in the journal here about that viral video of the jar of Nutella that ended up floating on Artemis II.
当我们看到这段视频时，我完全以为这是特效或者AI生成的。
I I was convinced this was like VFX or AI when we pulled it up.
显然，这是真的。
Apparently, it's real.
我们可以稍微深入了解一下这到底是怎么发生的。
We we can dig into a little bit of like how this actually happened.
本·科恩在《华尔街日报》上报道了这个故事。
Ben Cohen has the story in The Wall Street Journal.
当全世界数百万人观看阿耳忒弥斯二号月球飞越任务时，宇航员们正经历着人类历史上最远距离的太空飞行，就在此时，他们突然被另一个壮丽的景象吸引住了。
As millions of people all over the world watched Artemis the Artemis II lunar flyby this week, there were minutes from seeing, there were minutes from seeing astronauts travel the furthest distance ever from Earth when they were suddenly captivated by another majestic sight.
它在飞船内飘浮，翻滚着掠过一名宇航员的头部，随后出现在美国宇航局的直播画面中，让距离地球约25.2万英里外的观众都提出了同一个问题。
It floated through the spacecraft, tumbled right past an astronaut's head, and drifted across NASA's livestream, leaving the roughly 252, thousand miles away with the same question.
等等。
Wait.
那是罐装能多益吗？
Was that a jar of Nutella?
回到地球上的新泽西州一个悬崖边的会议室里，这家品牌母公司的高管们周一正就座准备下午两点的运营委员会会议，完全不知道在当天下午1点52分，远在太空中的那个飞行物体已经出现。
Back on this planet in a precipice, New Jersey conference room, executives at the brand's parent company were taking their seats on Monday for their 2PM operations committee meeting oblivious to the flying object that had appeared far, far away at 01:52PM.
他们的会议很快被微软Teams聊天中的一条消息打断，消息称能多益出现在了太空中。
Their meeting was quickly interrupted by a message in the Microsoft Teams chat flagging that Nutella was in outer space.
事实证明，那些把能多益推广到地球每个角落的人，看到它出现在月球附近时，比任何人都更加惊讶。
As it turns out, the people who spread Nutella to every corner of the Earth were more surprised than anyone to see it near the moon.
他们是在点击聊天中的链接，看到一则社交媒体帖子后，才得知这罐可能是银河系最著名的粘稠物的。
They only found out about the most famous jar of gooey stuff in the galaxy when they followed a link in the chat to a social media post.
天哪，Nutella为此产品植入花了多少钱？
Dang, how much did Nutella pay for this product placement?
我们看到那则帖子时，也提出了同样的问题。
And we saw that post and we had the same question.
所以Nutella说：一分钱都没花。
So Nutella says zero.
他们并没有为此付费。
They did not pay for this.
这并不是产品植入，但确实令人惊叹。
This is not product placement, but it is remarkable.
他们根本不知道自己的巧克力榛子酱登上了猎户座飞船。
They didn't know their chocolate hazelnut concoction was aboard Orion.
他们甚至不知道宇航员带上了它。
They didn't even know that the astronauts took it with them.
对我来说，宇航员能随便带些东西上太空还是挺奇怪的。
And it's still weird to me that astronauts can just bring random stuff with them.
但我猜，说到底它就只是一辆公交车罢了。
But I guess it's just a bus at the end of the day.
你可以往上面放任何你想带的东西。
You can put whatever you want on it.
你还记得吗
Do you remember
你第一次吃能多乐是什么感觉？
your first time trying Nutella?
我不是特别喜欢能多乐的人。
Not I'm not that big of Nutella guy.
对我来说，那感觉就像余生的第一天。
For me, felt like the first day of the rest my life.
真的吗？
Really?
你是大粉丝吗？
A big Nutella fan?
现在不是了，但小时候发现它是一种像花生酱的东西，却完全不在一个档次上。
Not really anymore, but as a kid, discovering that it was that it was like a peanut butter like thing that was just on an entirely different level.
它就是
It was
这确实很奇怪，它
It is a weird It
是魔法。
was magic.
它到底是什么？
It a what is it?
从技术上讲，是一种调味品吗？
A condiment, technically?
它到底是什么？
What is it?
我不
I don't
甚至是一种涂抹酱？
even A spread?
一种涂抹酱？
A spread?
这算是一种东西吗？
Is that a thing?
我不知道。
I don't know.
它可以有很多种
It can be a lot
东西。
of things.
但我一直觉得它假装成巧克力，这让我有点困扰。
But it's sort of bothered me that it sort of LARPs as chocolate.
它看起来像巧克力，但实际上是榛子味，我觉得这有点像背叛。
Like it looks like chocolate, but it's like hazelnut technically, which I think is like sort of a betrayal.
我不知道。
I don't know.
如果你对能多益有强烈看法，请在聊天区留言。
Sound off in the chat if you have strong opinions about Nutella.
大卫说能多益对孩子们来说就像毒品一样。
David says Nutella is like crack for kids.
而乔迪是受能多益公司雇佣的。
And Jordi is being paid by the Nutella Corporation.
不，我们没有得到能多益的赞助。
No, we are not sponsored by Nutella.
我
I
真希望有。
wish.
我们会有一大罐子
We'd have a big So
它是一种巧克力榛子混合物。
jar of it right it's a chocolate hazelnut concoction.
是的。
Yeah.
它它含有
It it has has
对。
Yeah.
里面有榛子。
Hazelnut in it.
它含有巧克力
It has chocolate in it
还有。
as well.
所以，Nutella公司并不知道Nutella这种榛子混合物登上了猎户座飞船。
So Nutella, the corporation, did not know that Nutella, the hazelnut concoction, was aboard Orion.
他们至今仍不知道是哪位宇航员带上去的。
They still don't know which astronaut brought it.
他们并不知道，你只是知道
They weren't You just know that
对于下一次任务，红牛公司愿意付出任何代价，让红牛罐子在太空中漂浮。
for the next mission, Red Bull will pay any price to have cans of Red Bull floating around
不知怎么的，我觉得NASA宇航员的税务记录会被仔细审查，以确认他们没有在背后出售广告位。
the Somehow, I feel like the NASA astronauts' tax records will be deeply inspected to see that they're not selling ad slots out the back.
我们需要一些漂浮的iPad，上面显示B2B的SaaS服务。
We need some iPads floating by with like, b to b SaaS.
那会很不错。
That'd be good.
是的。
Yeah.
那太酷了。
That'd be sick.
他们仍然不知道是哪位宇航员带上去的。
They still don't know which astronaut brought it.
和我们一样，当他们看到罐子以恰好能让标签旋转清晰的角度从屏幕上飞过时，甚至不确定这段视频是不是真的。
And like us, they weren't even sure the video was real when they watched the jar hurdle across their screens at exactly the right angle for the label to spin into focus.
一切都显得太完美了。
It all looked too perfect.
如果我自己拍，也拍不出这么好，”他们的首席营销官查德·斯塔布斯说。
I couldn't have filmed it any better if I tried, said Chad Stubbs, who is their chief marketing officer.
斯塔布斯，这名字当首席营销官真棒。
What a great name for a CMO Stubbs.
他是远北美洲公司的，拥有Nutella品牌。
Of Faroe North America who owns Nutella.
但当他审阅了NASA的视频，看到一罐悬浮的Nutella时，他立刻意识到，一个营销机会送到了自己面前，而他再也不用坐在本周最无聊的会议里了。
But once he reviewed the NASA footage and saw a levitating tub of Nutella, he knew that a marketing opportunity had landed in his lap and that he was no longer sitting in his most boring meeting of the week.
这比讨论发货细节有趣多了。
It was a lot more interesting than talking about shipping details.
于是，他们从会议室创建了一个Teams群组，讨论这项不可能任务的物流安排。
And so from the conference room, they started a Teams group to discuss the logistics of their improbable operation.
他们称之为‘Nutella任务控制中心’。
They called it Nutella Mission Control.
在此之前，大多数美国人从未见过原视频。
Before, most Americans had never seen the original video.
他们发布了一段慢动作片段，并配上了《2001太空漫游》的经典主题曲。
They posted a slow motion clip set to the iconic theme of 2,001: A Space Odyssey.
标语是：Nutella超越地球。
The tagline, Nutella is out of this world.
我在想，他们是否可以直接利用Instagram的内置音乐功能直接使用这段音乐，还是必须快速获得授权。
And I wonder I wonder if they could just rip that on Instagram using like the integrated music functionality or if they had to like quickly license that.
因为从《2001太空漫游》这样的好莱坞电影中获取官方主题曲，虽然对这种项目来说预算内完全可以承担，但通常还是得来回发几封邮件协商。
Because getting like an official theme from a Hollywood film like 2,001: A Space Odyssey, It's definitely within budget for something like this, but it's usually a back and forth with some emails.
但也许作为一个大型营销团队，他们早已把所有流程都安排好了。
But maybe as a as a large marketing team, they had everything, like, wired up already.
自从人类开始离开地球以来，就一直带着各种产品同行。
For as long as humans have been leaving this world, they have been taking products along for the ride.
但在这个时代，当地球上的每一寸土地都被赞助时，太空却成了最 prestigious 的地产和营销领域，因为它是唯一一个禁止广告的地方。
But in this age, when every inch of the planet is sponsored, space has become the most prestigious real estate and marketing because it's the only place where marketing is banned.
NASA 有严格政策，禁止推广或背书商业产品，泰勒在喝倒彩。
NASA has a strict policy against promoting or endorsing commercial products, And Tyler's booing.
而且执行得如此严格，以至于不提及品牌几乎成了宇航员的基础训练内容。
And enforces it so aggressively that not naming brands might as well be part of basic training for astronauts.
与大学运动员不同，他们不能靠自己的姓名、形象和肖像赚钱。
Unlike college athletes, they can't get paid for their name, image, and likeness.
只要他们受雇于 NASA，就不会为 Nutella 做推广。
As long as they're employed by NASA, they won't be shilling for Nutella.
所以是的。
So Yeah.
我不是说宇航员应该能独立做这件事。
I'm not saying the astronauts should be able to do it independently.
我只是说NASA应该试着打造一个数十亿美元规模的项目。
I'm just saying that NASA should try to try to build out a multibillion dollar average
你得直接找最高层。
You got go straight to the top.
你得直接去说，嘿，洛克希德带来了些东西。
You got go straight to the and say, hey, Lockheed's showing up with some stuff.
SpaceX正在提供支持。
SpaceX is contributing.
Axiom Space正在负责宇航服。
Axiom Space is doing the space suits.
蓝色起源正在研发登月舱。
Blue Origin's doing a moon lander.
为什么Nutella不也参与进来呢？至少出一部分钱。
Why not Nutella chipping in as well, At least paying for part of it.
我不知道。
I don't know.
这会非常美国化。
It would just be extremely American.
让猎户座飞船看起来像，这会非常美国化。
It would be extremely American to make the Orion capsule look like
我就是这个意思。
That's what I was saying.
NASA必须搞付费点播。
A NASA you've got to have a pay per view.
是的，肯定要付费点播。
Yeah, pay per view for sure.
比如，你可以观看宇航员在旅途中闲逛的直播。
Like, you can watch the stream when they're just kind of hanging out traveling.
但像着陆、溅落、发射这样的关键时刻，
But for anything like a landing, splashdown, takeoff,
它会切换到付费观看模式吗？
it switches Oh, the switches pay pay per view mode?
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得他们得卖挡风玻璃。
I think they got to sell the windshield.
他们得卖挡风玻璃。
They got to sell the windshield.
当你拍摄地球照片时，你
When you're taking photos of Earth, you
得看到
got to see
泰德。
Tide.
你得看到挡风玻璃外的泰德。
You gotta see Tide across the across the windshield.
从这个距离看到蓝色星球，简直太震撼了。
It's like, oh, seeing the blue marble from this distance is amazing.
提醒我了，我还有些衣服要洗。
Reminds me, I have some laundry.
我得把相机放在I和d之间。
I have And I kinda have to put the camera in between the I and the d
直播过程中也有播客广告插播。
Podcast ads over during the stream too.
是的。
Yeah.
有很多沉默的空档。
There is a lot of dead air.
让你们知道，再过三十分钟，我们就要绕到月球背面了。
Letting you guys note in in t minus thirty minutes, we'll be coming around the moon.
对。
Yep.
这一段月球飞越环节由Athletic Green赞助。
And this this segment, this moon passing is brought to you by Athletic Green.
对。
Yep.
很好。
Great.
好的。
Okay.
只要他们是NASA的雇员，就不会为能多益做广告。
So as long as they're employed by NASA, they won't be shilling for Nutella.
当一位阿尔忒弥斯二号机组成员在新闻发布会上无意透露他将带一部iPhone去拍摄地球的迷人照片时，他立刻意识到说漏嘴了。
When one Artemis II crew member let slip in a press conference that he was bringing an iPhone to get mesmerizing photos of Earth, he caught himself.
他说，作为一名政府雇员，我想我其实不能这么说，里德·怀斯曼说道。
He said, I don't think I can actually say that as a government employee, Reed Wiseman said.
我们将携带一些小巧但功能强大的计算设备，它们配备了出色的相机。
We have small, highly powerful computing devices that we'll take with us with outstanding cameras.
所以，是的，iPhone 除了是一个带有卓越摄像头的小型高性能计算设备之外，还能是什么？
And so, yeah, What is an iPhone if not just a small, highly powerful computing device with outstanding camera?
在太空中，人们还发现了这些高性能计算设备的其他用途。
Well, in the cosmos, they also found other purposes for those powerful computing devices.
NASA 分享的一张照片显示，杰里米·汉森一手拿着电动剃须刀，另一手拿着 iPhone，因为他用它当镜子，但这还不是这张照片中最令人惊叹的部分。
One picture shared by NASA showed Jeremy Hansen with an electric shaver in one hand and his iPhone in the other because he was using it as a mirror, and that wasn't even the most part amazing part of the shot.
任何仔细观察的人都会在角落发现另一个产品——一罐 Jif 花生酱。
Anyone who looked closely would have spotted another another product in the corner, a container of Jif peanut butter.
有趣的是，政府至少对花生酱有规定，你听说过 NIST 吗？国家计量技术研究所之类的？
Now, what's interesting is that the the government does have, at least with peanut butter are you familiar with NIST, the National Institute of Standards and Tech Techniques or Technology or something?
NIST？
NIST?
NIST 就像是我们的官方度量衡标准。
So NIST is like our official weights and measures.
比如他们保存着标准的‘一磅’究竟是多重。
Like they keep like the canonical, like what is the one pound?
一克是什么？
What is one gram?
他们为各种不同的事物制定了一整套标准。
They and they have a whole bunch of standards for all sorts of different things.
然后不同的公司可以达成一致：好吧，我们都采用相同的
And then different companies can like agree on, Okay, well, we are both saving
他们正在重新定义克的标准。
the They're reinventing and defining the gram.
是的，还有各种各样的东西。
Yeah, but all sorts of things.
NIST 拥有一种参考花生酱，称为标准花生酱。
And one of the things that NIST like has is peanut butter, reference peanut butter.
所以，如果你在做某种实验室实验，需要说明你测试的产品与花生酱接触后的表现，你可以去政府机构获取最标准、最官方的花生酱。
So if you are doing some sort of lab experiment and you need to say that you are testing this product when it comes into contact with peanut butter, you can go to the government and get the most standard The official peanut peanut butter.
花生酱。
The butter.
否则别人可能会问：你用的是Jif牌还是Skippy牌，或者其他什么牌子的花生酱？
Because otherwise somebody might say, well, did you use Jif or did you use Skippy or did you use something else?
这样你就可以只说一种东西。
And this way you can just say one thing.
所以存在这样一种情况：政府会说，别带Jif花生酱，带NIST花生酱吧，但我不确定。
And so there is a world where the government would say, okay, don't bring Jif peanut butter, bring NIST peanut butter, but I don't know.
为了了解更多关于太空怪事的信息，这位《华尔街日报》的记者称，他曾联系过罗伯特·珀尔曼，后者作为Collect Space的编辑，痴迷地追踪这些事物。
To find out more about space oddities, this journalist at The Wall Street Journal said he called Robert Pearlman who obsessively tracks them as the editor of Collect Space.
他告诉我一些关于外太空的奇怪事情。
He told me something curious about outer space.
NASA任务中那些极其平凡的细节，与那些非凡的时刻一样，在地球上引起共鸣。
The deeply ordinary parts of NASA missions resonate back home as much as the extraordinary.
我们记得那些绕月飞行的宇航员，还有飞向太空的能多益。
We remember the astronauts who flew around the moon and the flying Nutella.
这让我们感觉与那些从未离我们如此遥远的人更加亲近。
It makes us feel closer to the humans who have never been further away.
毕竟，我们大多数人永远不会看到月球的背面。
After all, most of us will never see the dark side of the moon.
不同意。
Disagree.
我认为我们会见到彼得·戴曼迪斯。
And I think we're going to have Peter Diamandis.
看起来像是科切拉音乐节的布景。
Looks looks like a Coachella set.
它们看起来确实像是被拧过的旋钮之类的东西。
It does look like they're twisted knobs or something.
它们在那里是做什么的？
What are they what are they doing there?
只是在观察。
Just watches.
好的。
Okay.
哦，他们在检查手表。
Oh, they're they're checking the watches.
好的。
Okay.
检查手腕？
Wrist check?
检查手腕。
Wrist check.
有一种产品早已与太空飞行的奇迹密不可分。
One product was already synonymous with the wonder of spaceflight.
你知道我们在说啥吗？
Do you know what we're talking about?
你能猜一猜吗？
Can you take a guess?
哪种产品最著名地为宇航员在太空中设计？
What is the main product that was like famously designed for astronauts in space?
是冰淇淋吗？
Is it the ice cream?
不是。
No.
哦，不是。
Oh, no.
那个，那个，那个接近了。
That that that's close.
冻干冰淇淋就在那儿。
The freeze dried ice cream is up there.
不是。
No.
什么？
What?
鲜奶油？
Whipped cream?
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不。
No.
汤普森？
Tang?
没人知道汤普森吗？
And no one knows Tang?
你不知道汤普森的故事吗？
You don't know the story of Tang?
我觉得那是在我们出生之前的事了，约翰。
I think that's before our time, John.
还有汤普森？
There's Tang?
还有那种超级弹跳球，你知道的？
And then there's also, you know those super bouncy balls?
它们——我不确定这有多可信，但至少我小时候听人说，那种超级弹跳球是被设计成火箭燃料之类的。
They're I don't know how apocryphal that is, there's always been this story, at least when I was a kid, it was introduced to me that those super bouncy balls were designed as rocket fuel or something like that.
结果实验搞砸了，他们只能搞出这个东西。
And and that the experiment went wrong and like this was all they could come up with.
假新闻。
Fake news.
大概是假新闻。
Probably fake news.
真糟糕。
That sucks.
当我八岁的时候，我觉得这简直是传说。
As as an eight year old, like, I was like, this is lore.
这太经典了。
This is peak.
这是最经典的传说。
This is peak lore.
这真是最经典的传说。
This is this is peak lore.
明年即将进行的阿尔忒弥斯三号任务旨在帮助美国宇航局及其承包商为2028年多次登月任务做准备。
The Artemis III mission next year is supposed to help set up NASA and its contractor to attempt one or more visits to the moon in 2028.
所以这指的是阿尔忒弥斯四号和五号任务。
So that's Artemis IV and V.
美国宇航局监察长在最近的一份报告中表示，SpaceX和蓝色起源公司在开发阿尔忒弥斯任务的航天器时都遇到了延误。
NASA's inspector general said in a recent report that both SpaceX and Blue Origin have run into delays developing spacecraft for Artemis missions.
每家公司都在研究太空中传输超低温推进剂的技术，以支持登月飞行，而这些燃料加注操作仍 largely 未经验证。
Each company has been working on in space transfers of super cold propellants to power lunar flights, fueling operations that are still largely unproven.
因此，这是一种非常复杂且全新的技术，整个航天界显然都在致力于此，太空在轨加注对于真正实现登月至关重要。
So that is a very, very complex and new technology that we are that the entire space community is clearly working on, The in space refueling is sort of critical to actually getting to the moon in a meaningful way.
一个独立的美国宇航局安全小组还对SpaceX基于星舰的载人着陆器何时能准备就绪提出了疑问。
A NASA safety panel separately raised questions about how quickly SpaceX's human lander based on its Starship vehicle would be ready.
在今后几年内使用星舰着陆器执行宇航员登月任务似乎极具挑战性，该小组认为可能无法实现。
A landing operation of astronauts with the Starship lander within the next few years appears daunting and to the panel probably not achievable.
SpaceX下个月计划发射其星舰火箭的升级版本，而蓝色起源则正致力于使用新格伦火箭向月球发射货运着陆器。
SpaceX next month plans to launch an upgraded version of its Starship rocket while Blue Origin is working towards launching a cargo lander to the moon with its New Glenn rocket.
所有这些都发生在SpaceX上市的背景下。
So with all of this has, like, the backdrop of the SpaceX IPO.
你得想象，即使这需要极其高昂的成本，我们目前和SpaceX之间却有一种奇特的动态：像这样的资本支出，以及将火箭送往月球的费用，可能还低于Colossus五号或者某些疯狂的数据中心。
And you have to imagine, that even if it was incredibly cost intensive, we're in this weird dynamic with SpaceX where the CapEx requirements of something like this and and, you know, sending a rocket to the moon are probably less than Colossus five or some crazy data center.
因此，你可能会处于一种有趣的情况中：埃隆有动力加速推进，虽然可能不会搭载人类，但至少先将一个基础版的Optimus机器人送上月球。
And so you could be in this interesting situation where Elon is incentivized to to move a lot faster, probably not with humans on board, but get even just a basic Optimus robot up there.
把月球着陆器送上去。
Get a lunar lander up there.
继续运送有效载荷，因为这能展示更多里程碑式的进展。
Just continue to deliver payloads because it just shows so many more milestones.
当你上市后，我认为要持续专注于这三十年的计划会变得更加困难。
And as you go public, it's I think it becomes more difficult to stay focused on this thirty year Yeah.
部分原因确实是这样。
Part of part of Yeah.
实际上将人类送入太空的价值，完全是一种营销手段，只是为了证明这是可能的。
Like the value of actually sending humans to space is entirely like kind of marketing and just to prove that it's possible.
是的。
Yeah.
你会希望这一切都是真的，而且确实如此。
Like you would think that you would hope that a lot of this is Yes and all.
这真的很酷。
Like, it's just very cool.
非常鼓舞人心。
Very inspiring.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得这很重要。
I feel like it's important.
但与此同时，你会觉得NASA应该专注于如何把尽可能多的载荷送上太空或月球。
But at the same time, you would think that NASA should just be optimizing for how how do we get as much mass as possible Yeah.
并且更多地依赖无人机。
Up to the whether it's space or the moon, and just basically leaning a lot more into drones Yeah.
更注重体积，而不是这种高风险、高成本的方式
And going more for volume versus these sort of like high risk, high cost
是的
Yeah.
上周末在旧金山，我相信你们都看到了，发生了一系列袭击事件。
Over the weekend in San Francisco, which I'm sure you all saw, there were a variety of attacks.
萨姆·阿尔特曼发布了一篇博客文章，提到有人向他的房子投掷了汽油弹。
Sam Altman posted a blog post covering a Molotov cocktail that was thrown at his house.
然后外面还发生了枪击事件。
Then there was a shooting outside.
周五清晨，很早的时候。
Morning Friday early hours.
他说是凌晨3点45分。
He said 03:45AM in the morning.
他说，幸运的是，汽油弹弹开了，没有人受伤。
He said, thankfully, it bounced off the house and no one got hurt.
我看到另一篇文章说，嫌疑人已被拘留。
I saw another article that said that the suspect is in custody.
他还提到，萨姆进一步重申了他所相信的观点。
And he says and and Sam goes on to sort of restate what he believes.
他说，致力于为所有人创造繁荣、赋能所有人、推动科学技术发展，是他道德上的责任。
He says, working towards prosperity for everyone, empowering all people, and advancing science and technology are moral obligations for him.
人工智能将成为人类有史以来最强大的工具，用于拓展人类的能力和潜力。
AI will be the most powerful tool for expanding human capability and potential that anyone has ever seen.
对这一工具的需求几乎是无限的，人们将用它做出令人难以置信的事情。
Demand for this tool will be essentially uncapped and people will do incredible things with it.
世界需要大量的AI，我们必须找到实现它的方法。
The world deserves huge amounts of AI and we must figure out how to make it happen.
他还说，并非一切都会顺利进行。
And then he also says, It will not all go well.
对人工智能的恐惧和焦虑是合理的。
The fear and anxiety about AI is justified.
我们正处在见证一场长期以来最重大的社会变革的过程中，也许是历史上最大的变革，甚至可能超过工业革命。
We are in the process of witnessing the largest change to society in a long time, perhaps ever, maybe bigger than the Industrial Revolution.
因此，你可以预期在这段时期内，美国民众的生活和存在方式会发生变化。
And so you would expect the life and the existence of the American populace to change over that period of time.
我们有责任让这一过程尽可能平稳。
And we have a duty to make it as smooth as possible.
他说，我们必须确保安全，而这不仅仅是对模型对齐的问题。
And he says, we have to get safety right, which is not just about aligning a model.
我们迫切需要全社会做出响应，以应对新的威胁。
We urgently need a society wide response to be resilient to new threats.
这包括制定新政策，帮助度过艰难的经济转型期，以迈向更美好的未来。
This includes new policy to help navigate through a difficult economic transition in order to get a to a much better future.
人工智能必须实现民主化。
AI has to be democratized.
权力不能过于集中。
Power cannot be too concentrated.
乔治·霍茨对萨姆·阿尔特曼那篇关于开源的帖子提出了一个有趣的反驳，而最近很多人并没有在倡导开源，因此看到他继续推动这一点还挺有意思的。
George Hotz actually had an interesting rebuttal to Sam Altman's post sort of re arguing for open source, which is something that a lot of people have not been arguing for lately, but it sort of interesting to see him continue to push
是仅仅关于开源，还是关于共享研究？
Was just about open source or was it about sharing research?
他说，你没有义务开源那些训练成本高达十亿美元的模型的权重。
It was he was saying that you don't have an obligation to open source the weights of a model that cost a billion dollars to train.
他并不是在主张这一点。
He's not arguing for that.
是的。
Yeah.
但他认为，你应该开源那些技巧和研究思路。
But he is saying that you should open source the tricks, the research ideas.
基本上就是再次发表研究论文，赋能更广泛的社群。
Basically publish the research papers again and empower a broader community.
当然，这其中存在竞争动态，但这种情况可能通过监管，或者仅仅由于竞争态势而发生。
Of course, there's a of competitive dynamics there, but that is something that could potentially happen via regulation or something or happen just due to just a competitive dynamic.
就像其他一些实验室没有那么多计算资源，但他们可能拥有优秀的研究人员，或许更愿意开源更多内容。
Like there are other labs out there that don't have as much compute and might realize that they have great researchers and maybe they want to open source more.
这种情况可能会以多种不同的方式发展。
There's there are a lot of different ways that this could play out.
所以他说，我不认为应该由少数几家实验室来做出对我们未来影响最重大的决策。
So he says, I do not think it's right that a few labs, few AI labs would make the most consequential decisions about the shape of our future.
因此，围绕这些攻击、其背后动因以及言论的风险性，已经发生了大量争论。
And so there's been a bunch of back and forth about the attacks and what's driving them and how how risky the rhetoric has been.
我认为总体而言，这是一个非常棘手的局面，因为你并不想引发更多关于此事的争议和讨论。
I think in general, it's it's a very tough situation because the you don't want to just spark more controversy and more discussion around this stuff.
你主要希望朝着更安全的方向推进，更多地
You mostly wanna move towards more security and more more
是的。
Yeah.
当然，这一点已经广为传播了。
Course, the notable, you know, it's been shared widely at this point.
但周五那起事件中最引人注目的是，攻击者当时正在分享所有关于Doom的AI内容，任何人都能获取。
But the notable one thing that was notable about Friday, the attacker from Friday is just they were sharing all of the Doom if anyone all the AI Yeah.
Doom相关的材料。
Doom material.
他们明显在大量消费这些内容。
They were clearly consume consuming it.
是的。
Yeah.
某种程度上被卷入其中了。
Sort of caught up in it.
在1月中旬，安德鲁和霍罗威茨推出了一个新的基金AMP Public，称科技领袖们已经没有多少时间了，必须证明他们将公共利益置于一切之上。
On January mid hop, of Andrew's and Horowitz out there with a new fund, AMP Public, said time is running out for technology leaders to show they care about public benefit above all else.
放缓裁员。
Slow down your layoffs.
重新投资于再教育。
Reinvest in reeducation.
培养下一代。
Mentor the next generation.
我们都是人类团队的一员。
We are all on team humanity.
我认为这是一个很好的观点。
And I think that's a good message.
随着美国人工智能竞赛不断升温，地缘政治动态始终作为一种制约因素，限制了人工智能实验室领导者所提出提案的可行性。
As the AI race continues to heat up in America, geopolitical dynamics have consistently acted as a binding constraint, limiting the viability of proposals set forth by AI lab leaders.
因此，我们在达沃斯看到，各实验室的领导者表示：如果我们都能达成一致，我们愿意放缓步伐。
And so we've seen this at Davos with various lab leaders saying, Well, we would agree to a slowdown if we could all agree.
而伯尼·桑德斯提出的数据中心禁令等种种措施，在地缘政治竞争的背景下显得异常棘手。
And then and the Bernie Sanders, data center ban, and all of this feels very intractable in the backdrop of with the backdrop of geopolitical competition.
如果你无法获得所有国家的支持，最终只会被其他国家超越，再次陷入同样的困境。
If you don't have buy in from all the different countries, you wind up just falling behind another country and you have the same dynamic again.
因此，这一部分讨论逐渐被边缘化，因为对于一家美国私营企业来说，想要介入外交政策，实在难以论证。
And so that piece of the discussion has sort of fallen by the wayside because it's so difficult to argue if you're running a private corporation in America and you're like, I want to make foreign policy now.
这要求太高了。
That's a really tall order.
幸运的是，人们开始至少探讨一下不同国家之间可能形成联盟的路径。
Fortunately, think people are starting to at least investigate what the path towards some coalition between different countries might look like.
《无限机器》的作者、本节目的前嘉宾塞巴斯蒂安·马拉比在《纽约时报》发表了一篇社论，提出了应对中美格局的一种可能解决方案。
And Sebastian Malabai, author of The Infinity Machine and former guest of the show, published an op ed in The New York Times outlining one possible solution to The US China dynamic.
他说，2022年，拜登政府试图通过禁止中国获取尖端半导体来遏制其人工智能的发展。
He says in in 2022, the Biden administration tried to arrest China's development of artificial intelligence by denying it cutting edge semiconductors.
这就是《芯片法案》，当时我非常支持，但当然，相关政策已经演变，如今整个半导体供应链和科技发展的速度都变得更加复杂。
This was the CHIPS Act, which at the time I was very in favor of, but of course, the policies have all evolved and there are much more complex situations with the entire semiconductor supply chain and how fast the technology is advancing.
因此，特朗普总统在没有明确替代方案的情况下，略微放松了这项政策，但芯片出口管制已经失败。
So President Trump has relaxed that policy a bit without a clear plan to replace it, but the chip export controls have failed.
中国的科技产业过于先进，不可能被阻止发展强大的人工智能。
China's tech sector is too sophisticated to be stopped from building powerful AI.
在追求一个不可能实现的目标时，美国正错失一个看似空想、但在我最近对中国进行报道后认为更现实的机会。
In pursuing an impossible objective, The United States is missing an opportunity to to try for one that sounds fanciful, but which, after a recent reporting trip to China, I believe is more realistic.
美国应当与中国就一项全球AI安全协议展开谈判，该协议将对这项既能带来巨大益处、也可能在错误手中造成严重危害的技术施加普遍限制。
America should negotiate with China on a global pact on AI safety, which would impose universal limits on a technology that can do much good, but in the wrong hands would do much harm.
出口限制的前提是美国能够成功阻止中国获取高性能AI芯片。
The premise of the export restrictions was that The United States would be able to successfully block China's access to powerful AI chips.
用于AI数据中心的高端芯片尺寸如滑板般大小，无法简单地藏在手提箱中走私，而且如果没有芯片制造商工程团队的现场支持，也很难投入使用。
The premium chipsets used in AI data centers are the size of skateboards and can't be smuggled in a simple suitcase, and it's hard to put them to use without hands on support from the chipmaker's engineering teams.
但中国开发者通过在其他国家的服务器上训练其AI模型和芯片，绕过了这些管控。
But Chinese developers circumvented controls by training their AI models and chips located in other countries.
这始终是一个问题：即使你阻止了芯片流入该国，是否能设立一家控股公司来分配
This is always a question of, even if you stop the flow of chips into the country, can you set up a holding company that allocates
是的，这涉及到去年的一个问题：等等，新加坡是怎么投入这么多亿美元购买石油的？
the Yeah, this reserves and a question from last year of, wait, how is Singapore placing that many billions of dollars of oil?
马来西亚是另一个例子，甚至在中东地区，人们也一直质疑：如果中东获得了芯片，他们能否让中国公司远程作为客户？
And Malaysia was another and one that was even in The Middle East, there were always questions about, Okay, well, if The Middle East gets chips, are they going to be able to have Chinese companies as clients remotely?
还有人讨论过，把训练数据或模型权重存放在硬盘上，然后直接乘飞机将硬盘运送到其他国家。
And there were discussions of folks basically putting training data on hard drives or model weights on hard drives and just flying them from one country to another.
要真正遏制人工智能价值链关键环节的流动是非常非常困难的。
It's very, very hard to actually contain the movement of the critical pieces of the AI value chain.
因此，模型构建者也充分利用了一种称为蒸馏的过程。
So its model builders also take full advantage of a process known as distillation.
每当美国
Every time a U.
的
S.
实验室推出一个前沿模型时，中国竞争对手会迅速逆向工程其功能并复制出一个类似版本。
Lab produces a cutting edge model, Chinese rivals quickly reverse engineer its capabilities and build a copycat version.
他说，跟随者具有优势。
The follower has the advantage, he says.
美国人工智能科学家过去常说，竞争对手能够快速跟进并不重要。
American AI scientists used to say that competitors being able to fast follow would not matter.
他们认为，一场智能爆炸正在逼近。
An intelligent explosion was approaching, the argument went.
随着人工智能系统很快具备了编写自身代码升级的能力，人工智能将创造出更先进的人工智能。
As AI systems would soon become capable enough to write upgrades to their own code, AI would create better AI.
更先进的人工智能会创造出更更先进的人工智能。
Better AI would create even better AI.
递归式自我改进将推动性能急剧提升。
Recursive self improvement would drive performance skyward.
第一个达到所谓奇点的国家将成为人工智能竞赛的赢家。
The nation that had just reached this so called singularity first would be the winner of the AI race.
即使快速跟进者仅比领先者落后几个月，在拜登政府实施AI管控三年半后，AI已经开始生成代码以自我升级，预期的反馈循环已然启动。
Even if the fast follower were just a few months behind the leader, three and a half years after the Biden administration ship controls AI is generating code to upgrade itself, the promised feedback loop has started.
但领先模型的加速能力并不会决定人工智能竞赛的胜负。
But the accelerating power of the leading models won't determine who wins the AI race.
真正重要的是人工智能的部署。
It's AI deployment that will matter.
要改造经济和军队，人工智能必须融入商业流程和武器系统。
To transform economies and armies, AI must be embedded into the business processes and weapons systems.
前沿模型的原始算力必须转化为实际应用。
The raw power of the cutting edge models must be turned into applications.
结果是，中国和美国在人工智能竞赛中大致持平。
The upshot is that China and The United States are roughly level in the AI contest.
顶级中国模型可能比美国模型落后几个月，而军事应用方面的相对优势难以判断，因为许多信息属于机密。
Top Chinese models may be a few months behind American ones, and the relative position on military applications is difficult to ascertain as so much is classified.
但在工业应用方面，中国似乎处于领先地位。
But on industrial applications, China seems to be leading.
被美国制裁的公司，如华为和海康威视，正在推出用于高速列车检修、采矿作业管理、水质污染检测等的AI系统。
US sanctioned companies such as Huawei and Hikvision are rolling out AI systems that perform maintenance checks on high speed trains, managing mining operations, scanning water samples to assess pollution, and more.
在深圳附近的华为园区，他最近乘坐了一辆自动驾驶汽车。
At Huawei's campus near Shenzhen, he recently took a ride in an autonomous car.
副驾驶座上的设备为我按摩背部，转向控制也极其精准。
A device in the passenger seat massaged my back and the steering was immaculate.
泰勒，你通常同意这些观点吗？
Tyler, do you generally agree with most of these takes here?
不。
No.
好吧。
Okay.
那么，你怎么看呢。
Well, what do think Yeah.
首先，我认为中国实验室落后得更多。
To start, I think I think Chinese labs are further behind.
好的。
Okay.
唯一的原因
The only reason
是因为知识蒸馏。
that they're close behind is because distillation.
知识蒸馏。
Distillation.
我也这么认为。
I also think Yeah.
他在说，芯片出口禁令并没有奏效。
And he's kind of saying like He's saying that the chip export ban is not working.
是的。
Yeah.
还有，但我
Also But I
我觉得他们落后恰恰证明了禁令是有效的。
feel like the the the them being behind is proof that it is working.
他还在说，实验室希望实现递归式自我改进。
And he's also saying, you know, the labs wanna get to recursive self improvement.
我们已经开始看到一些早期迹象。
We're starting to see early signs of that.
嗯。
Mhmm.
所以我觉得这里面有些不一致的地方。
And so I feel like there's some kind of inconsistencies.
我的意思是，就芯片这件事而言，我们显然没有像本可以做到的那样严格监管。
I mean, also just on the on the chip stuff, like, we're clearly not policing it as hard as we could.
完全可以更严格地监管。
Could be policing it way harder.
对吧？
Right?
我记得当时是超微公司。
We're I remember it was like super micro.
我们看到了那些，是的。
We saw those Yeah.
视频里他们把箱子偷运进来，情况极其
Videos where they had smuggled in the boxes and it was like extremely
是的，那个吹风机。
Yeah, the hair dryer.
是的，如果我们真的想解决这个问题，我们肯定能做到。
Yeah, it's like if we really want to solve this issue, like we for sure could.
在美国领先的实验室中，你正看到某种起飞的迹象。
Among like the leading labs in The US, you are seeing some kind of like takeoff.
但在它们之间，这确实是一个递归的过程。
But like among them, right, it's like very much a recursive thing.
对。
Yep.
模型改进了工具，而工具又提升了下一个模型。
The models improve the harness, which improves the next model.
我觉得
Like I think
是的，没错。
Yeah, yeah.
这件事确实是真实的。
This thing is actually true.
我觉得，你并没有看到开源实验室跟上步伐，
Like you're not seeing open source labs kind of keep up, I think,
一般来说。
generally.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，看到DeepSeek没有像很多人预期的那样加速发展，真是非常引人注目。
I mean, it was very, very remarkable watching like deep sea not accelerate in the same way that I think a lot of people expected.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，人们原本以为DeepSeek会是什么样子。
Mean, like like, when is kind of what deep seek what what people thought deep seek would be.
而且模型确实不错。
And models are good.
但确实。
But Yeah.
再说一遍，我认为它们之所以优秀，主要是因为蒸馏。
Again, like, I think most of the reason that they're good is is just because of distillation.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
现在真是个混乱的时期。
It's chaotic time.
总之，感谢您今天收看TBPN。
Anyway, thank you for watching TBPN today.
请在Apple Podcasts和Spotify上给我们五星好评。
Leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
我们明天休息，但周三太平洋时间上午11点再见。
And we will be off tomorrow, but we will be back Wednesday at 11AM Pacific.
到时候见。
We'll see you then.
再见。
Goodbye.
我们爱你。
We love you.
波音往事。
Boeing Flashback.
再见。
Goodbye.
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