饮食TBPN：2025年11月5日

大家都想知道如果我们今天不录制播客会做什么。我想我们永远也不会知道了。

Everybody wanted to know what we would do if we didn't podcast today. I guess we'll never know.

据昨日突发新闻，贾里德·艾萨克曼被重新提名——我想这个词没错。他重新成为NASA局长的候选人。

In breaking news yesterday, Jared Isaacman has been renominated, I guess, is the term. He's back in the contention for, to be NASA administrator.

我们知道他最初为什么被排除在候选人之外吗？

Do we know why he was originally taken out of the running?

根据白宫的说法...根据白宫的说法，原因是他曾向民主党捐款。但后来Ars Technica和其他几家媒体报道说，是因为埃隆·马斯克和特朗普之间发生的争执。

According to the White House. So according to the White House, the the the the the reason is that, he had donated previously to Democrats. But then Ars Technica and a couple other outlets reported that it was because of the Elon Musk, Trump dust up that happened.

所以不敢相信那真的发生过吗？

So can't believe that was a real day on act?

那是疯狂的一天。于是艾萨克曼被撤换，肖恩·达菲秘书接任。但现在艾萨克曼又回来了，当然是在查理·柯克纪念活动上。你可能看到埃隆·马斯克和特朗普总统握手言和的情景。

It was a crazy day. And so Isaac Min got pulled, and, secretary Duffy stepped in, Sean Duffy. But now Isaac Min's back in the picture, of course, at the Charlie Kirk Memorial. You might have seen Elon Musk and president Donald Trump sitting down having a handshake, maybe making amends. There's been speculation as to, things.

看来这些事都过去了。他们似乎已经...我想是愈合了所有伤口。'谢谢总统先生给我这个机会，能在您的领导下为国效力是我的荣幸。来自太空爱好者的支持令人难以置信。'

It seems to be water under the bridge. They seem to have, healed all wounds, I suppose. Thank you, mister president, for this opportunity. It will be an honor to serve my country under your leadership. The support from the space loving community has been overwhelming.

这是最激动人心的时代，自太空时代黎明以来，我坚信我们期待已久的未来即将成为现实。这令人振奋。我对他可能掌舵感到非常兴奋。关键在于他是企业家，而我认为企业家通常都是杰出的领导者。而且他还会驾驶战斗机。

These are the most exciting times, the dawn of since the dawn of the space age, and I truly believe the future we have all been waiting for will soon become a reality. This is inspiring. I'm very excited that he could potentially be in the seat. The big reason he's an entrepreneur, and I think entrepreneurs make great leaders generally. But He can fly fighter jets.

他展示了战斗机飞行的画面

He has shown fighter jets flying

你正引领着人们前行

You're leading people that are going

他们将驾驶大型飞行器

They're gonna fly a big by

驾驶着高速的大型机器

flying in big fast machines.

完全同意。我觉得人们还没意识到他作为企业家有多疯狂。他16岁就创立了Shift4 Payments公司——虽然用过其他名字，但确实是16岁创业的。

Totally. I don't think people understand how crazy of an entrepreneur he is. He started Shift4 Payments. It had a few other names, but he started his company when he was 16 years old. 16.

这可是正经生意。收入数十亿，真实盈利。市盈率25倍，市值60亿美元的公司。没错。

And it's like a serious business. Billions in revenue, real earnings. The PE ratio is 25 x. It's a $6,000,000,000 company. Yeah.

它不是超大规模企业，但非常严肃认真。是真正的商业。

It's not a hyperscaler, but it's like very serious. Real business.

4000名员工。

4,000 employees.

4000名员工，支付量达数千亿，还为星链处理支付业务。不知道这是否更重要。这可能不太重要，但他去过太空。贾里德·艾萨克曼上过太空，这简直疯狂。他某种程度上确实赢得了作为太空爱好者的信誉，

4,000 employees, hundreds of billions of payment volume, and it also does the the payments for Starlink. I don't know if this is more important. This is probably less important, but he's been to space. Jared Isaacman has been to space, which is just crazy. He's kind of, like, really earned his bona fides as someone who's, like love space and

他大概可以说'没人比我更热爱太空'。

He can probably say no one likes space more than me.

辩论焦点是月球还是火星。月球对火星，应该优先发展哪个？听起来很傻，但这确实是个现实问题，因为有不同公司、不同组织、不同利益群体。月球派有阿尔忒弥斯计划，包括SLS火箭和猎户座飞船。另一边则有始终优先考虑火星的埃隆。

The debate was moon versus Mars. Moon versus Mars, where should you prioritize things? It sounds silly, but it really is real because there are different pro different companies, different organizations, different constituents. And so on the moon side, you have the Artemis program, which is the SLS rocket and the Orion capsule. And so on the other side, you have Elon, who has always been prioritizing Mars, Mars, Mars.

贾里德·艾萨克曼当时说：为什么登月要花这么长时间、耗费这么多资金？我觉得这是个好问题。我们并非首次尝试登月，已经六次送人上去过。

Let's go to Mars. Jared Isaacman said at the time, why is it taking us so long, and why is it costing us so much to go to the moon? And I think it's a good question. We're not new to trying to go to the moon. We've sent humans there six times.

我们未能将火箭计划发展到使月球任务成本低廉到可以忽略的程度，这已成为美国创新能力的一个污点。我们本应持续扩大规模，每年削减20%成本，现在早该实现常态化往返了。

The fact that we haven't been able to scale our rocket program to a point where moon missions are too cheap to meter has become a bit of a stain on American ingenuity. We should have just scaled it up and just cut the cost by 20% every year, and we would be getting up and back.

不该成为失传的艺术。

Shouldn't be a lost art.

而且它确实已成为一门失传的艺术，以至于人们会问：这是真的吗？我们该怎么做？SpaceX已成为扭转这一局面的最大希望，而埃隆·马斯克对火星的关注远超过月球。因此围绕艾萨克曼的争论焦点在于他与马斯克的关联——他通过Shift4公司为星链处理支付业务，这种联系将他与马斯克紧密绑定。

And and it is a lost art to the point where people ask, is it real? How do we do this? SpaceX has become the best hope at the reversal of this, and Elon has been much more focused on Mars than the moon. And so the debate around Isaacman centers on this tie on his ties to Elon Musk. He's tied to Elon Musk through shift four, that he processes payments for Starlink.

此外，他确实曾搭乘SpaceX火箭进入太空。NASA确实拥有影响力，因其掌握资金，并具备协助和批准各类事项的能力。

And, also, he obviously literally went on top of a SpaceX rocket and went to space. NASA does have a thumb that it can put on the scale because it has funding, and it has the ability to help and the ability to approve different things.

NASA的资金使用，他们确实很懂怎么花钱。

NASA's funding, they also know how to spend money.

确实。你

Exactly. You

看看他们在猎户座项目上花了多少钱。

look at how much money they've spent on on Orion.

这些资金本可以流向SpaceX、火星计划或月球计划。目前存在公开辩论，我认为这并非左右派立场问题——当年小布什不也大力支持火星计划吗？

And so that money could go to SpaceX, could go to Mars, could go to the moon. And and there's a and there's an open debate. And I don't think this is like a left right issue. Wasn't George Bush really into going to Mars? And then

是的，乔治·W·布什总统对火星探索非常感兴趣。他是

Yes. President George W. Bush was quite interested in Mars exploration. He was

个火星迷。

a Mars guy.

2004年1月，他在NASA总部宣布了太空探索愿景。该计划要求NASA在2020年左右将人类送回月球。然后他们又花费200亿美元造了个残破的猎户座飞船。

January 2004, he announced vision for space exploration at NASA headquarters. The plan directed NASA to return humans to the moon by around 2020. And then they proceeded to spend 20,000,000,000 to make a broken Orion capsule.

要我说，真正的失误在于本该把所有反恐战争经费都投到登月任务上，直接宣称'我们要向月球开战——月球上有石油'。他能否正确决策该优先开发哪个天体？而不是纠结于他是否捐款、是左派右派、或是否说了正确言论。这些对NASA的核心问题——月球还是火星——都只是表面装饰。

I mean, the real miss is it should have taken all the all the war on terror money and put it into moon missions and just been like, we're going to war against the moon. There's oil on the moon. Is he going to make the correct decision about what what celestial body to, prioritize versus, you know, oh, did he donate to this, or is he left wing or right wing, or did he say the right thing? Like It's also All that stuff is window dressing for the big question for NASA, which is moon or Mars.

你不认为抗衡中国在太空领域的努力也该是首要考虑吗？还是说这这

You don't think trying to counterbalance China's efforts in space should also be top of mind, or is that is that

我认为这些都从属于月球与火星之争。基于中国在月球上的进展，或许我们确实该更重视月球。埃隆在这点上可能有些错误——多年来他从不从地缘政治角度思考，总说这是人类与冰冷太空的对抗。

is that I think that is all upstream of Moon versus Mars. Based on what we're seeing from China on the Moon progress, maybe we do need to prioritize in the Moon more. Maybe Elon is somewhat wrong on that. Elon, for years, was not framing things in in geopolitical ways. He was just saying it's humanity versus the cold vacuum of space.

没错。所以人类必须去火星，那是真正的异星家园。如果月球和地球出事，人类能在火星上真正重启。但当前地缘局势并非如此。如今黄仁勋、埃隆·马斯克和桑达尔·皮查伊都说要在太空建数据中心。

Yeah. And so humanity needs to go to Mars because that's a true different planet. And if something happens to the moon and Earth, like, you you can truly start over on on Mars. That's not the case with the current geopolitical situation. But now we have Jensen Huang, we have Elon Musk, and we have Sundar Pichai all saying, we're going to do data centers in space.

那么总的来说，你们有多少市值？10万亿，这就像是说，嘿，我们会认真对待这件事。而且我认为这是个NASA级别的问题。

So collectively, you have what? 10,000,000,000,000 in market cap that's like, hey, we're gonna we're gonna be taking this seriously. And I do think that that's a NASA question.

埃隆几天前的帖子说，量子计算最适合在月球永久阴影区的陨石坑进行。鳄鱼？

Elon's post from a couple days ago, quantum computing is best done in the permanently shadowed craters on the moon. Croc?

没错。这是真的吗？鳄鱼？德文，Cognition公司。他们是德文的开发者。

Yep. Is this real? Croc? Devin, Cognition. They're the makers of Devin.

德文是AI软件工程师。用你的个人AI工程团队来交叉处理待办事项。

Devin's the AI software engineer. Cross cross your backlog with

聊天中的大卫提到，埃隆实际上越来越关注月球了。他确实发过帖子，我回去查了两天前的记录。他说SpaceX将大力投入月球项目。是的。

your personal AI engineering team. David in the chat was, saying, referencing that Elon is actually more and more moon pilled. He did post, I went back and found it two days ago. He said SpaceX will lean in big on the moon. Yes.

是的。亚瑟·麦克沃特说我们应该吞并它，而Solana一直在...

Yes. Arthur Mac Macwater said we should annex it, which Solana has been

是的。继续推进。

Yes. Pushing on.

已经说了好一阵子了。

Saying for quite a while now.

是啊，月球应该成为一个州。经典台词'我是必然的'，肯·柯特兰说道，他正在展示贾里德·艾萨克曼的酷炫拼贴画。真是个疯狂的故事。

Yeah. Moon should be a state. It's a classic. I am inevitable, says Ken Kirtland, He's showing a cool collage of Jared Isaacman. What a crazy story.

我想通知大家，太空数据中心仍然让我想爆自己的头。感谢各位对此事的关注。桑达尔昨天表示，我们的TPU将前往太空，这是受到我们从量子计算到自动驾驶的'登月计划'历史启发。'追日者计划'正在探索未来如何在太空建造可扩展的机器学习计算系统，以利用更多的太阳能——太阳释放的能量比人类总发电量高出100万亿倍。就像任何'登月计划'一样，这将需要我们解决大量复杂的工程挑战。

I would like to inform everyone that data centers in space still make me wanna blow my brains out. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Sundar yesterday said, our TPUs are headed to space inspired by our by our history of moonshots from quantum computing to autonomous driving. Project Suncatcher is exploring how we could one day build scalable ML compute systems in space harnessing more of the sun's power, which emits more power than a than a 100,000,000,000,000 times humanity's total electricity production. Like any moonshot, it's going to require us to solve a lot of complex engineering challenges.

早期研究表明，我们专为AI设计的万亿级TPU（张量处理单元）在粒子加速器中模拟近地轨道辐射水平测试时能完好无损。然而仍存在重大挑战，如热管理和在轨系统可靠性。想想还挺有趣的，知道吗，在卫星出现之前，科学家们可能会说'你想把无线电设备送上轨道'，然后'你想用它来通信'

Early research shows our trillion generation TPUs or our tensor processing units purpose built for AI survive without damage when tested in a particle accelerator to simulate low Earth orbit levels of radiation. However, significant challenges still remain like thermal management and on orbit system reliability. It is pretty funny to think about, you know, before before we had satellites Yeah. Like scientists just being like, you wanna put radio equipment in orbit, and then you wanna use it to communicate

你想在太空看电视。

with You wanna watch TV in space.

你想看太空电视。

You wanna watch space TV.

你想要太空电视。

You want you want space TV.

这让我想一枪崩了自己。

That makes me wanna blow my brains out.

你打算叫它什么？碟形网络吗？

What are you gonna call it? Dish networks?

还是你想在上面也装个摄像头？想拍照吗？

Or you wanna put a camera on one of those too? You wanna take pictures?

拍照？

Take pictures?

然后传下来

And send it down

对。

Yeah.

传到我们这儿？

To us here?

太空中的摄像头。对。对。没错。没错。

A camera in space. Yeah. Yeah. For sure. For sure.

我们梦想的科幻未来可能真的要实现了。埃隆·马斯克批准了桑达尔·皮查伊的'阳光捕捉'项目，还说'好主意，笑死'。但搞笑的是，埃隆不能直接说'不行，我要把所有发射能力都留给自己'。他其实没这个权力，真的。

The science fiction future we dreamed of might actually be coming true. And Elon Musk signed off on Sundar Pichai's, sun catcher project and says, great idea, l o l. But it is so funny that, like, Elon can't just be like, no. I'm I'm I'm I'm keeping all the launch capacity for myself. Like, he he doesn't have I guess he doesn't have the ability to do that, really.

我觉得这应该是违法的，因为如果你是铁路公司，就不能搞网络中立性那套。

I think it's I think it's illegal because if you're like a railroad, you can't say like, you need like net neutrality effectively.

判断泡沫不会很快破裂的一个依据是：那些在人工智能相关问题上全盘皆错的人——他们确实拼命想犯错——像含奶嘴般吮吸着自己的错误。他们坚信泡沫是颗坏炸弹。

One way to infer the bubble isn't going to pop soon is that all the people who have been wrong about everything related to artificial intelligence, indeed, they have been desperate to be wrong. They suck on their wrongness like a pacifier. Believe the bubble is a bad bomb.

说到在人工智能问题上犯错的人，确实有人说过'AI永远通不过图灵测试'，但也有像埃利泽·尤科斯基这种'AI明年就会杀死我们'的论调。我觉得他们都属于同类。埃利泽说泡沫要破裂了吗？我不...他说过吗？

When I think about people who have been wrong about artificial intelligence, I mean, sure, there's people that have been like, AI will never pass the Turing test, but there's also, like, the Eliezer Yukowski, which was, AI is gonna kill us, like, next year. And, like, I would put them both in those camps. And is is Eliezer saying that the bubble's gonna pop? I don't Is he

鲍勃在说话？我不觉得...我们去泡泡机那儿吧。

Bob talk? I don't think Let's go to the bubbler.

鲍勃...我们去泡泡机那儿吧。

Bob Let's go to the bubbler.

我不认为他一直在说这个

I don't think he's been saying that

确实。不。好吧。那么迪安·鲍尔是在暗指谁呢？这才是问题所在。

for sure. No. Okay. So so who is who is Dean Ball subtweeting here? That's the question.

很难说完全是。KI将成为这台失控的死亡机器，同时也是泡泡机

It's hard to argue that it's Entirely. KI is gonna be this runaway death machine and also that it's Bubbler

啪。你了解鲍尔吗？

pop. Do you know ball?

好吧。这个玩笑我们要开多少次？不，我我认为他主要是在说有一群主流记者总爱谈论，比如AI就像是

Alright. How many times are we gonna make this joke? No. I I think he's mostly talking about there's a bunch of, like, journalists that like, mainstream journalists that talk about, like, oh, AI is like it

就是哦，对。没错。百分之百。

just Oh, yes. Yes. 100%.

百分之百。有意思。啪。

100%. Interesting. A pop.

对。对。对。对。对。

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

这个这个这个有个——我不确定他是不是记者，但有个博主同时试图论证两个观点：一是山姆·奥特曼这辈子从未真正创造过任何东西，他非技术出身，与任何成功都无关；二却又说他罔顾董事会意愿鲁莽地快速推出了ChatGPT。这两套说辞根本不可能同时成立。

The the the there's a I don't know if he's a journalist, but there's a blogger who was trying to argue simultaneously that Sam Altman has never, like, created anything in his life. He's nontechnical. Like, he's not he's not responsible for any, like, success. But then simultaneously was arguing that, like, he moved recklessly quickly to launch ChatGPT against the board's, like, desires. And it's like, literally both of those can't be true simultaneously.

对我来说，盖尔曼健忘效应最近简直离谱，因为我发现有些我常读的内容创作者——

For me, the Gell Mann amnesia Yeah. Effect has just been crazy lately because there's people whose content that I read

是啊。

Yeah.

——他们过去从不涉及AI领域。

That don't historically cover AI.

没错。

Yeah.

现在却开始谈论AI了。嗯。他们随便写篇短文就能冒出10到15个错误观点，或者完全是我无法认同的解读。好吧，看来我得重新审视他们其他作品的可靠性了。

And they're starting to talk about AI. Mhmm. And they're just in a single short essay that they're writing, there's, there's easily like 10 to 15 things that are either wrong or just I completely disagree with the take. Okay. Maybe I need to be a lot more critical of, of some of their other writing.

是啊。有个人在加密货币泡沫时期对其极度批判，后来变得极度悲观，说什么'明年我们都会领到回形针'。我当时还想，哦，也许我该买些NFT。结果他关于回形针的说法错得离谱，让我不得不重新审视。可能他对NFT的判断也是错的——虽然实际上他关于NFT是泡沫的观点没错，只是顺便错误预测了我们会在几天内被AI灭亡。

Yeah. Was someone who was like super critical of crypto during the crypto bubble and then came out like super doom pilled, we're going to all get a paperclip next year. And I was like, oh, like maybe I should be buying NFTs. He's like, he's so wrong about the paper clipping thing that I need to go back and revisit. Maybe he was actually wrong about the NFT question because, like but, of course, like, truth is that he was correct about NFTs being a bubble and just happened to be also wrong about us all dying to AI in, you know, a matter of days.

就在史上最大金融泡沫的巅峰时期，一位社会主义者当选了世界金融中心城市的市长。是啊，人们很不满。估计他们都要搬去佛罗里达了。

A socialist just got elected mayor in the heart of the financial world at the top of the greatest bubble of all time. Yeah. People are not happy. They're moving to Florida, I guess.

我觉得很多声称要搬家的人今早醒来后...怎么说呢，我们拭目以待吧。从税收角度看，纽约州的关键问题在于——其实不需要百万人搬离就会对财政预算产生实质性影响。

I think a lot of the people that said they were gonna move are waking up this morning and seems un you know, we'll we'll see. The the the big issue for New York state from a tax revenue standpoint is is there's they don't actually need a million people to leave for it to have a material impact on budgets.

我认为人们高估了纽约一年内能变得多共产主义，却低估了十年间可能达到的程度。总的来说，大家现在因为担心下周会出台45%的财富税而恐慌。等着看实际政策吧。祝纽约市民们好运。

I think people people overestimate how communist New York can become in a year and underestimate how communist New York can become in a decade. I I generally think that people are freaking out thinking that there's gonna be a 45% wealth tax next week. We'll see. We'll see what actually gets put in place. But good luck to all the folks over in New York City.

这里本可以展开很多议题，但先简单说几点。尼克，我绝不主张波兰政策应该不假思索地迎合千禧一代观念。我绝对是最不可能支持社会主义的人。但当70%的千禧一代自称倾向社会主义时，我们不能简单用'他们愚蠢/特权/被洗脑'来打发，而应该试着理解原因。

There are many themes that could be developed more here, but let me make a few quick points for now. Nick, I certainly would not suggest that our polish policy should be embrace millennial attitudes unreflectively. I would be the last person to advocate for socialism. But when 70% of millennials say they are pro socialist, we need to do better than simply dismiss them by saying that they are stupid or entitled or brainwashed. We should try and understand why.

从代际契约破裂的视角来看，答案其实很明确：当一个人背负过多学生贷款或面对难以承受的房价时，他将长期处于负资产状态，很难通过房地产积累资本。如果一个人在资本主义体系中没有利益关联，自然可能转向反对它。

And from the perspective of a broken generational compact, there seems to be a pretty straightforward answer to me, namely that when one has too much student debt or if housing is too unaffordable, then one will have negative capital for a long time and or find it very hard to start accumulating capital in the form of real estate. And if one has no stake in the capitalist system, then one may well turn against it.

学生贷款这个诡异问题总被忽视，其实极其重要。如果你想当医生就必须上大学，但如果是更灵活、更具创造性或创业性的职业，或许可以辍学——当然还取决于其他因素。如果你是富人，毕业时毫无负债，上大学几乎没风险，无非就是在社交软件上混日子。

And there is this weird question of student debt that I think gets completely left out of the equation when and it's so, so important. It feels like if your life's work is like you want to be a doctor, you just have to go to college. But if you do want to be something that's a little bit more flexible, a little more creative, a little more entrepreneurial, you can probably drop out of college. But it depends on a whole bunch of other factors. If you're rich and you're going to graduate without any debt, there's pretty limited downside to going to college because you get to just hang out in vibe code apps and do whatever.

经历这一切后却背负20万美元债务真是太糟了。我觉得太多人把大学简单归类为好或坏，而不是看它是否划算。

It just sucks to go through that and then come out with $200,000 in debt. I feel like so many people boil it down to college good or college bad as opposed to college a good bargain or college a bad bargain.

是啊，另外学校其实是花钱买时间让你思考人生方向。但如果你不知道想如何度过人生、规划职业、开启事业，那很多人上学只是为了消磨时间，避免无所事事。泰勒，尼日利亚首都是哪里？

Yeah, the other thing, school is a way to buy time to figure out how you wanna spend your time. But if you don't know how you wanna spend your time and how you wanna spend your career, how you wanna start your career, then school, I think a lot of people are just doing it to kill time, so they're not just sitting. Tyler, what's the capital of Nigeria?

让我想想...阿布贾。

Let me think about that for a second. Abuja.

答对了。

There you go.

看，这就是活学活用。

See, that's that's clearly in action.

Substack和X平台的关系现在闹得沸沸扬扬，你关注这事了吗？

The Substack x relationship is going all over the place. Have you seen this?

即使剔除虚假流量，X平台给Substack带来的访问量也大幅增长。完整文章阅读量和订阅数等指标也都同步上升。我们强势回归了。当初X和Substack闹得那么僵，我觉得真的很遗憾。非常遗憾。

Even correcting for fake views, traffic to Substack links from x is up substantially. Full post read sign ups, etcetera, also track. We're so back. I thought it was very unfortunate that X and Substack got In such a fight. In such a fight.

这对平台上的所有作者都很不利，他们中有些是最优秀的，甚至是X平台上最出色的发布者，企业也因此受到影响。我其实不认为这两个平台有那么强的竞争关系。显然Substack确实想变得更像一个社交平台。我不知道Substack的社交产品构成多大威胁。

It was bad for all the writers on the platform who are some of the best but the best posters on X, like, businesses were impacted by it. I don't really think the two platforms are that competitive. Obviously Substack does want to be more of a, of a, of a social platform. I don't know how much of a threat the social product of Substack is.

是啊。有趣的是X曾有个叫Review的产品，我记得是电子邮件通讯服务。他们从未真正投入资源，最终关闭了它。有意思的是，没有其他公司...关于电子邮件和能带走受众这点，对真正的社交媒体公司来说简直难以容忍。

Yeah. What's interesting is like the X had review, I believe was the, was the email newsletter product. They never really invested in it. They, they ultimately shut it down. I, and it's interesting that no other, something about, like, the email and and and taking the audience with you that's just so revolting to a, a true social media company.

作为社交媒体公司，Instagram或LinkedIn要内置邮件通讯产品易如反掌对吧？但他们没这么做，因为他们想要控制权，认为这与其定位相悖。所以Twitter当年收购Review做邮件通讯后又全面退出，只因继续下去对他们毫无意义。但具体原因我也不清楚。

Like, if you're a social media company, it'd be so easy for Instagram to have an email newsletter product or LinkedIn to have an email newsletter product built in. Right? And yet they don't because they want control, and they see it as counter positioned. And so, for some reason, the folks at Twitter bought review and were doing email newsletters and then fully pulled back from it because, it was just it just did not make sense for them to to keep going. But I don't know.

我们拭目以待。这是X平台在iOS4上禁止使用新应用内链接查看器的域名列表：apple.com、wayfair.com、grok.com、instagram.com、fb.me、tiktokv.com和open.substack.com。这意味着点击这些链接时不会跳转到iOS新应用内浏览器，需要另建网站或类似方案。

We'll see. Here's a list of domains that X has excluded from using the new in app link viewer on iOS four, and it's apple.com, wayfair.com, grok.com, instagram.com, fb.me, tiktokv.com, and open.substack.com. And so what does that mean? It's like it's like if you click on those, you won't go to the new in app link viewer on iOS, And so you need a different website for those or something like that.

我完全不明白。

I have no idea.

简直难以置信，我朋友居然还没买下伯克利山那栋Getty别墅。那本是完美的技术修道院，至少也该成为理性主义AI开发者多元家庭的居所，若落入无趣之人手中将是悲剧。Tyler你知道这房子吗？去过吗？

Absolutely insane to me that one of my friends hasn't bought the Getty house in the Berkeley Hills yet. Perfect techno monastery, or at least a rationalist AI dev polycule house would be a tragedy if it got in the hands of someone boring. Do you know about this house, Tyler? Have you been here?

不知道。我只听说过'翼之圣殿'。

No. I've heard of a Temple of Wings.

这就是你们多元关系团体聚会的地方吗？什么？如果你把亚历克斯·卡尔夫的《技术共和国》与埃兹拉·克莱因和德里克·汤普森的《丰饶》并排放在一起，年轻宏观学派指出，你会发现二十年代末期决定性的两党共识是——引用原话——'我们需要变得更像中国'。由此我们证实尼克·兰德是唯一正确解读尼采预见性的严肃思想家：他将尼采视为供给侧改革专家，与将其解读为保守派的庸俗右翼对立，与视其为脏话（那个我不愿提及的词）的大陆学派对立，也与那些根本没读过尼采著作、作为大陆学派分支的英美自由左翼/左翼自由派对立。年轻宏观学派要表达的是，无论是代表左翼的《丰饶》派（你可以联想埃兹拉·克莱因）...

Is this where your polycule meets up? What? If you put the technological republic, which is Alex Carrf's book, and abundance, which is Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson's book, side by side, says young macro, you'll note the defining bipartisan tendency of the late twenty twenties is, quote, we need to become a lot more like China. And with this, we vindicate Nick Land as the only serious thinker to have correctly identified Nietzsche's prescience as that of a supply side reform pundit in opposition to the Normie right who read him as a conservative, the Continental canon who read him as a bad word that I'm not gonna say, and as the Anglophone liberal left, left liberal offshoots of the of the continental canon who haven't read him. And so what Young Macro is saying is that, is that both the abundance who you can think about Ezra Klein, this is the left.

这是《纽约时报》的立场。而亚历克斯·卡普、彼得·蒂尔和帕兰提尔代表保守派——左翼和右翼实际上达成了共识：我们需要建设更多，需要通过资本主义创造丰裕。

This is the New York Times. And Alex Karp and Peter Thiel and the Palantir, this is the conservative side, the left and the right, are actually unified. We need to build more. We need to create abundance through capitalism.

年轻宏观学派，无疑是我们时代最伟大的思想家和网络意见领袖之一，他确保这篇帖子经过了真正的兰德式新深状态派的事实核查。没错，我们有些突发消息：OpenAI首席财务官表示人们对人工智能的热情还远远不够。嗯，彭博社有篇相关报道。

Young Macro, undoubtedly one of the greatest thinkers and posters He of our made sure this post was fact checked by real Landian neo deep status. Yeah. We have some some breaking The CFO of OpenAI says people are are not exuberant enough about AI. Mhmm. Bloomberg has an article.

OpenAI首席财务官莎拉·弗莱尔指出，市场过度关注人工智能领域可能存在的泡沫焦虑，而应该对这项技术的潜力展现更多热情。

OpenAI chief financial officer, Sarah Fryer, suggested the market is overly focused on anxiety about a possible bubble in the artificial intelligence sector and should muster more exuberance about the technology's potential.

我这儿就有些热情要给你——人工智能，它来了！人工智能力量，它正在降临！

I got some I got some exuberance for you right here. AI. It's coming. Artificial intelligence, it's coming.

乔·威森塔尔表示：'对比特币近期大跌并不意外，我对比特币泡沫的警告已持续十余年。截至2025年，比特币表现已逊色于美国国债。'

Joe Wiesenthal says, not surprised that Bitcoin has fallen so much lately. I've been talking about a Bitcoin bubble for over ten years. Bitcoin has now performed worse than US treasuries in 2025.

比特币这不就兜了个圈子回到原点了，对吧？

Bitcoin just kind of like round tripped, right?

Meta，糟糕的前沿模型，毫无云共享文化可言。

Meta, S H I T T Y frontier model, no cloud share culture is F.

关于Meta，你认为他们在未来五年甚至两年内推出GPU云服务的概率有多大？

On Meta, what do you think the probability is that they launch a GPU cloud in the next five years or two years even?

超过50%的概率。

Greater than 50% chance.

所以他们拥有大量GPU资源。

So they have a ton of they have a ton of GPUs.

是啊。我觉得这个可能性非常高。对吧？因为他们看起来不打算开源。所以

Yeah. I think that's like very high. Right? Because it seems like they're not gonna do open source. So

就像是，

it's like,

他们为什么要开发这个模型？

why are they making the model?

这有多高？因为他们从未涉足企业级业务，从未做过B2B。对公司来说这完全是全新的领域。

How high is it? Because they've literally never done enterprise, never done b to b. It's like a completely different motion for the company.

观点相当激进，但很有趣。

Pretty aggressive takes here, but entertaining.

但你认为苹果选择不参与会显得明智吗？Suspended Capital认为到2026年谷歌将成为全球最大企业。祝他们好运。

But do you think Apple is gonna look look smart for sitting this one out? Google is going to be the biggest company in the world by the 2026 in suspended Capital's opinion. Good luck to them.

Pinterest股价下跌了22%。

Pinterest is down 22.

最终跌幅定格在22%。

22% is where it landed.

现在形势严峻。你业绩达标股价会跌，业绩未达标股价也会跌。

Tough right now. You can beat you can beat, and your stock will go down, and you miss, and your stock goes down.

Reddit的市值是它的两倍。Reddit像是AI数据经纪公司，而Pinterest现在就像是被随意糊弄的对象。

So Reddit's twice the size market cap wise. Well, Reddit is like the AI data broker company, and Pinterest is, like, kind of just getting slopped up.

或者说Reddit正朝着同样的未来迈进。

Or Reddit is is headed for the same future.

思考Pinterest在后AI时代的走向会很有趣。AI领域渗透得相当快，这非常令人沮丧，因为

Would be interesting to think about where Pinterest goes in a post AI future. The AI slot was infiltrating, like, pretty quickly, and it was very frustrating because

新Reddit上AI生成的内容占比有多少？

What percentage of new Reddit, like, written content is AI?

这和X平台的问题一样。在X上，AI应该是最容易实现的，对吧？140字、280字的限制。你觉得你实际阅读和互动的帖子中，有多少比例是AI生成的？

The same question as, like, X. Like, on X, it should be the easiest thing to AI. Right? 140 characters, 280 characters. What percentage of the posts that you actually read and interact with do you think are AI?

大概1%？对吧？

Like, 1%. Right?

感觉每三条帖子中就有一条是AI写的

This feels like every third post that is I I written

我完全没有这种感觉。可能是因为我更关注关注列表，我看到的是Joe Weisenthal的帖子，我知道他不会用AI。然后看到Joe Lonsdale的帖子，我也知道他不会用AI。

don't feel that way at all. I feel like maybe it's because I feel like it's more like my following tab, but I feel like I'm seeing like a Joe Weisenthal post. I know he's not using AI. Then I see a Joe Lonsdale post. I know he's not using AI.

然后我看到布拉德·格斯特纳发帖。他没有使用AI。接着我看到泰勒发帖。我观察泰勒的帖子，他也没有用AI。

Then I see Brad Gerstner post. He's not using AI. Then I see Tyler. I watch Tyler post. He doesn't use AI for his post.

我看到一个“你”的帖子。比如当我浏览时间线时，看到很多人出于各种原因就是不用AI。这不是重点，也不是整体架构。所以我猜某些子版块管理很严，很容易发现是否被AI接管了。

I see a You post. Like, when I'm scrolling through the timeline, I'm seeing people that are just not using AI for whatever reason. It's not it's like it's just not that's not the that's not the point, and that's not, like, the whole structure. And so he I don't know. I I would imagine that certain subreddits are tight enough where it's very easy to clock if they've been, like, taken over by AI.

是啊。

Yeah.

这可能很有价值，但我不确定。据16Z报告，中国在开源AI模型累计下载量上已超越美国。哦，我们还有些关于昨天调查的那家太阳能板公司的新进展。原来它是

There would be value to that, but I don't know. China has overtaken The US in cumulative open source AI model downloads, says a 16 Z. Oh, we also have some we also have some updates on the, on the solar panel company that we were digging into yesterday. Turns out. Was built by

中国人建的。他们建造了天合光能。

the Chinese. They built a Trina Solar.

对。

Yeah.

建了这个设施。后来由于监管压力，他们被迫出售。

Built this facility. Yeah. And then due to, some regulatory pressure, they were a forced seller.

是的。

Yeah.

后来它被现在的T1能源公司接管了。确实。当时大家都很惊讶，等等，我们居然能建造这样的设施？所有人都非常兴奋，包括...没错。当然，最后发现这其实是中国建造的。

And then it was taken over by what is now T one energy. Sure. And so everyone was like, wait, we know how to build facilities like this? And everyone got really excited, including, Yes. Of course, it turns out that, it was actually built by the Chinese.

它建在美国。这才是重点。

It's built in America. That's that's the important thing.

那我们来研究下

So let's study

我认为台积电亚利桑那州工厂是美国活力的胜利。没错。我们会引进最优秀的建设者在这里建造。我宁愿要一座由其他国家拥有运营但在美国的工厂，因为如果发生地缘政治危机，至少它在我们境内，这比远在地球另一端强多了。对吧？

I regard TSMC, Arizona as, like, a win for American dynamism. Yeah. We'll bring over whoever's building the best stuff and build it here. And I'll just take a factory in America that's owned and operated by another country because if there's some geopolitical crisis, like, at least it's within our borders, that's better than it being halfway across the world. Right?

A16Z报告称中国在开源AI模型累计下载量上已超越美国。我准备先押注一些小型项目。我们将为每个项目提供最高10万计算资源，支持在GCP上进行新实验。如果你有想探索的开源模型创意，我很想听听。欢迎联系。

A 16 z said China has overtaken The US in cumulative open source AI model downloads. I'm going to make a series of bets on the little guy to start. We are going to be granting out compute up to a 100 k per project to support new experiments on GCP. If you have an idea for an open source model that you'd like to explore, I'd like to hear from you. So go hit up.

我昨天和Lewis Lewis就这个项目私聊过。他正在整合计算资源，对这个项目非常期待，跟踪进展会很有趣。

I DMed with Lewis Lewis. A little bit yesterday about this project. He's working on pulling together the the compute resources, but very excited about this one, and it'd be fun to follow.

非常感谢您的观看。我们明天再见。再见，观众朋友们。

Thank you so much for watching. We will see you tomorrow. Goodbye, View.