完整访谈：毕晓普认为中国军队仍严重腐败

废话不多说，有请比尔·毕晓普。

Without further ado, we have Bill Bishop.

他经营着愤世嫉俗网站。

He runs cynicism.

欢迎来到节目，比尔。

Welcome to the show, Bill.

很高兴再次见到你。

Good to see you again.

欢迎回来。

Welcome back.

嘿。

Hey.

谢谢邀请我回来。

Thanks for having me back.

新年快乐。

It's Happy New Year.

你的新年过得怎么样？

How's your New

还好吧。

Year going?

还不错。

It's going pretty well.

不过，感觉我们这儿华盛顿就像在北极一样。

Although, it feels like we're in the near the North Pole here in DC.

我们已经被大雪困了两个星期。

We've been iced in for two weeks.

真是疯狂。

It's pretty nuts.

什么叫被大雪困住？

Well, describe iced in.

你是说真的出不了门吗？

Are you actually you can't go outside?

不。

No.

好吧。

I Okay.

我已经把所有东西都清理出来了。

Got everything dug out.

但确实有一刻，那些帮我清理车道的人拿着他们能搬起来的冰块自拍。

But, literally, at one point, the the guys digging out my driveway were taking selfies with the blocks of ice they could pick up.

那冰块太大了。

It was so big.

那冰块真的太大了。

It was it was so big.

冰完全冻住了。

It was frozen solid.

哇。

Wow.

而且现在还是这样。

And it still is.

这太疯狂了。

That's insane.

你看了超级碗吗？

Did you watch the Super Bowl?

当然看了。

Of course.

恭喜你的广告。

And congrats on your ad.

那真是太棒了。

That was awesome.

谢谢。

Thank you.

是的。

Yes.

获得的媒体曝光率我不知道你的投资回报率是多少，比如你提到的5万美元的倍数，但那真是个绝妙的创意。

The earned media was I don't know what your ROI like, the the multiples on your 50 k or whatever you said, but that was what a brilliant hack.

恭喜你们。

Congratulations to you guys.

是的。

Yeah.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

还有别的吗？

Anything else?

比赛有点无聊，但除此之外，

The game kinda sucked, but, you know, other than that

是的。

Yeah.

那确实不是最令人兴奋的。

It was, it was not, not the most exciting.

只是上半场进了几个任意球。

Just a of field goals in

上半场。

the first half.

是的。

Yeah.

我们不幸在第四节刚开始三分钟就离开了，因为我们知道出去的时候又会是一片混乱。

We we unfortunately left, like, three minutes into the fourth quarter because it just we knew it was gonna be the same chaos getting out.

然后比赛就变得越来越，越来越

And then it just got really, it got it got

有点

A little

有趣了。

a little more interesting.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我想

So I

我有个问题。

have a question.

但那是抄截还是掉球？

But was that an interception or a fumble?

哦，我不知道。

Oh, I don't know.

你问错人了。

You're asking the wrong people.

你问错人了。

You're asking the wrong people.

那是在比赛什么时候发生的？

When when did that happen in the game?

哦，那是他们的最后一次达阵。

Oh, that was their last touchdown.

对吧？

Right?

他们

Where they

哦，好的。

Oh, okay.

所以我们确实有，是的。

So we had we had yeah.

我们确实有，我们确实有，我们还有剩余。

We had we had we had left.

好的。

Okay.

我们还有剩余。

We had left.

我们得去机场。

We had to we had to get to the airport.

我们被困住了，很难跟上，因为我们和一群工作人员以及我们的很多朋友一起走的。

We're we're stuck It was it was tough to follow because we went with with a bunch of with with the ramp team and a bunch of our friends.

所以当时只是

And so there was just

那里

There

和人们有很多有趣的对话。

were a lot of interesting conversations to have with folks.

所以很容易沉浸在这种对话中，然后一回头，却发现他们得分了。

And so there's a lot of opportunity just to, like, get lost in conversation and then turn around and, no, they scored.

是的。

Yeah.

不管怎样，有没有哪个广告让你印象深刻？

Anyway, any any of the ads stand out to you?

你们刚才讨论的那个机器人伏特加广告，真是相当糟糕。

The robot vodka ad that you guys talked about a little while ago, which was pretty awful.

不过，你知道，中国下周就要迎来农历新年了，除夕夜央视会举办盛大的春节联欢晚会，有数亿人观看。

But, you you know, China's got the the the Lunar New Year's coming up next week and and Lunar New Year's Eve, the CCTV does this big spring festival gala with, you know, hundreds of millions of people watch.

是的。

Yeah.

到时候肯定会到处都是机器人。

It's gonna be full of robots.

所以我非常好奇他们会如何包装这些机器人的表演。

So I'm very curious to see how they spin the robot performances.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我觉得他们

I mean, I think they're

会通过脖子喝伏特加。

gonna Drinking vodka through the neck.

是的。

Yeah.

那真是太奇怪了。

That was very, very weird.

是的。

Yeah.

把那种尝起来像发动机润滑油的酒精和重型机械联系在一起，真是个有趣的决定。

Associating your your your alcohol, which kind of, like, tastes like engine lubricant with with, like, heavy machinery, is an interesting decision.

根据我们之前看过的某些演示，我预计这些机器人表现会非常出色，是的。

I expect the the the robots to perform incredibly well just based on some of the demos we've seen Yeah.

这些机器人在空中翻转。

Where these things are flipping around.

它们的移动方式就像，是的。

They're moving like Yeah.

像真正的战士或舞者一样。

You know, actual, like, fighters or dancers.

这非常令人印象深刻，而且

It's it's incredibly impressive and

是的。

Yeah.

你知道，我仍然担心我们在醒悟过来之前，就会让它们卖出一千万台。

You know, still worried that we're gonna let them sell, you know, 10,000,000 of those in before we kinda wake up.

你有关注大疆的故事吗？

But Have you been following the DJI story?

哪一部分？

Which part of it?

就是它的发展速度有多快，有没有什么漏洞。

Just the band and, like, how fast it's rolled out, if there's any loopholes.

因为你总是听到这样的头条新闻，比如英伟达的芯片禁令，说一丁点英伟达芯片都不会进入中国。

Because you always hear the headlines like, you know, NVIDIA, the chips ban, like, zero NVIDIA chips are going to China.

然后你会发现，哦，原来有转口贸易。

And then it's like, oh, well, there's diversion.

还有那些缺口。

There's the there's the cutouts.

还有NERF芯片，最终被用上了。

There's NERF chips that that that wound up.

你可以训练深海模型。

You could train deep sea.

你可以做很多事。

You could do a lot.

然后贸易协议又重新谈判了。

And then the the the trade deal gets renegotiated.

所以我就在想，有几位创始人在无人机社区里庆祝胜利，我支持他们。

And so I'm just wondering, like, there were a couple founders who were sort of taking victory laps in the drone americandronecom community, and I'm rooting for them.

我真希望有一个美国版的大疆。

I'd I'd love an American DJI.

GoPro在这方面显然失败了，主要是因为供应链和定价等问题。

GoPro famously failed at this mostly because of the supply chain pricing, all of that.

但我总觉得，我看到人们在庆祝胜利，我在想，这感觉可能有点像，新的法规真的能持久吗？

But it's always like I I see people take victory laps, and I'm wondering, it feels maybe a little bit like, will the new regulation stick?

这些法规的范围到底有多广？

How how how how all encompassing is the regulation?

我认为这有点为时过早，而且你已经看到其中一些规定被削弱了，现在可以购买以前的型号及其零部件。

I think it's a bit premature, and I think you've seen already bits of it whittled away where now you can buy previous models and parts for it.

所以我认为，部分问题确实在于大疆制造的无人机是最好的，无论是性能还是成本方面。

And so part of the problem, I think, really is that DGI makes the best drones, both in terms of performance as well as cost.

所以，除非美国公司真的能制造出执法部门想要的无人机，或者，你知道，各种...是的。

And so unless the American firms can actually make drones that like law enforcement wants or, you know, various Yeah.

公司想要的，你知道，我的意思是，这这这确实是一个不幸的局面。

Companies want, you know, I mean, it it it is it's an unfortunate situation.

我当然希望美国无人机制造商能迎头赶上，但也许这项法规会有所帮助。

I certainly hope the American drone makers can catch up, but it but it and maybe this regulation will will help.

但是，要知道，我们必须具备竞争力。

But, know, and have we have to be competitive.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我是说，大疆似乎也……确实，它有大量的商业应用，但它也成了很多人首选的圣诞礼物，比如那些喜欢徒步的户外爱好者。

I mean, it also just seemed like DJI I mean, yeah, there were a ton of, like, commercial applications, but it was just such a go to Christmas present for, you know, a lot of people, like, the casual outdoor person that goes on hikes.

他们想拍摄电影般的视频。

They want to take cinematic video.

说实话，这东西三个月后可能就积灰了，但它会成为圣诞节的一份绝佳礼物。

Like, realistically, it's going to be collecting dust in three months, but it's going to be an epic present on Christmas.

所以我的意思是，这可能推动了大量销售，有助于实现规模效应，这对于这些制造产品来说很重要。

And so I mean, that probably propelled a lot of sales and just helps get to scale, and that's important in these manufactured manufactured products.

对吧？

Right?

嗯哼。

Uh-huh.

而且，正如我们大家都知道，你已经和很多人反复讨论过这一点了。

And and again, as we all you know, you've talked about ad nauseam with lots of people.

我的意思是，中国有这方面的供应链，而我们仍然没有。

Mean, China has a supply chain for this stuff, and we still don't.

所以，这些法规是否会把供应链的创建拉到这里来，还有待观察。

And so whether or not these regulations will pull that supply chain creation here, it it remains to be seen.

当然，挑战在于你必须平衡好切断那些客户不仅想要而且确实需要的产品供应，比如警察部门等。

The the challenge, of course, is you have to balance cutting off access to products that that customers actually not just want but need, like police departments, etcetera.

但同时，又要让一些公司能够利用漏洞进行销售，但他们的零部件仍然可能通过第三国进行洗白，而这些零部件实际上很可能还是中国制造的。

And so but but then at the same time, just making it so that some companies can can to take advantage of loopholes, have some sales, but still kinda wash their components through third countries that actually still are probably Chinese components.

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

不。

No.

我的意思是，我还记得深入研究过小型无人机马达市场。

The I mean, the supply chain I I I remember digging into the the small drone motor market.

就是那些用于无人机的小型马达，嗯。

So the motors that go on those drones, the small motors, and Mhmm.

真的没有任何美国公司。

There's there are truly no American companies.

只有一家，对。

There's one Right.

一家位于西雅图的公司，被私募股权收购后，立刻把所有制造业务转移到了海外，现在只剩下一个控股公司了。

Company in, I think, Seattle that sold to private equity, and they immediately offshored all of the all of the manufacturing, and it's just like this holdco now.

我认为他们现在开始把一些生产回迁了，所以有了一些积极的迹象。

And I think that they're now they're starting to bring some stuff back, so there's, like, green shoots.

但这些事情需要好多年、好多年、好多年。

But these things take years and years and years.

看看亚利桑那州的台积电吧。

Just look at, like, TSMC in Arizona.

嗯。

Mhmm.

所以，从最初的计划到真正实现规模化，可能需要几年甚至十年的时间。

So, actually, years or maybe a decade to get actual to scale from, like, the initial plans.

好了，我们来谈谈解放军的清洗行动吧。

Anyway, let's let's dive into the PLA purges.

我们读了《华尔街日报》的相关报道，我有很多问题。

We we we read through The Wall Street Journal's coverage, and I have a bunch of questions.

你是怎么看待这件事的？

But how are you framing it?

你如何理解今天中国正在发生的事情？

How are you thinking about what's happening in China today?

解放军的清洗行动已经持续了一段时间。

So the PLA purges have been ongoing for quite some time.

在过去十八个月左右，这些清洗行动明显加速了。

They've accelerated over really the last eighteen months or so.

我的意思是，这是习近平自上台以来持续推进的多年进程的一部分，先是掌控解放军，随后推动一系列关于结构、兵力和作战方式的改革，旨在将解放军打造成他们所说的‘世界一流作战力量’，目标是2027年——中国人民解放军成立一百周年的里程碑。

I mean, they are part of a multiyear process of Xi Jinping, both starting out, you know, taking control of the PLA, but then also forcing through a whole series of reforms around structure force structure operations to try and get the PLA to to what they called world class fighting force with a specific goal for 2027, the centenary goals, which are the it's the hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army Mhmm.

他们希望达到的目标，有些人说，就是有能力入侵台湾。

Where they wanna be you know, some people say they wanna be able to invade Taiwan.

他们没有明确说过这一点，但目标是让军队具备执行此类任务的实际能力。

Haven't explicitly said that, but it's to get to to get get a force to the point where it could actually undertake missions like that.

是的。

Yeah.

最近一轮调整涉及解放军的最高领导结构，即中央军事委员会，由习近平担任主席，下设两名副主席和四名委员。

And the latest round where the PLA has a top structure, it's called the central military military commission, and it's got a chairman who's Xi Jinping, and then two vice chairman and four members.

一共七名成员。

So seven members.

现在，其中两名是女性，包括一位副主席。

They're now two members, she and a vice chairman.

哇。

Wow.

因为他在过去一年左右的时间里清除了其他人。

Because he's purged the rest over the last year or so.

就在几周前，他们清除了剩下的或者说那位中央军委副主席和一名委员。

And the just for couple weeks ago, they purged the remaining or the the one central military commission vice chairman and one member.

这相当令人震惊，因为之前有传言出现，然后三四天后，他们就消失了。

And it was quite shocking both because there have been rumors popped up and then three or four days later, they were gone.

明白。

Mhmm.

但同样，被清洗的那位副主席被认为是与习关系密切的人，习曾让他留任超过了通常的退休年龄，因为他本应是习的人。

But also, the vice chairman who was purged was someone who's considered to be close to Xi, who Xi had kept on past assumed retirement age because he was supposed to be sort of she's guy.

所以一方面，这相当令人震惊。

And so it's pretty shocking on the one hand.

另一方面，这某种程度上也是正在发生事情的延续。

On the other hand, it's kind of a continuation of what's been happening.

我们不知道原因。

We don't know why.

有很多猜测。

There's lots of speculation.

你提到的《华尔街日报》那篇文章，我想，提到了可能有一个内部简报说这位副主席张又侠向美国泄露了核机密。

The Wall Street Journal article you you referred to, I think, talked about possibly a briefing internally that said that this vice chairman, John Yuan Shah, was leaking nuclear secrets to The US.

但愿这是真的。

Wish it were true.

在华盛顿还没找到任何人真的相信这一点。

Haven't found anyone in DC who actually thinks it is.

我们明白了。

We got it.

但如果我们真有那种级别的间谍，那确实会令人印象深刻，对吧。

But would be would be impressive, right, if we had that level of of a spy.

是的。

Yeah.

但我认为这指向的是，然后问题在于你如何解读正在发生的事情。

But what it what I think it points to is and then the question is how you interpret what's going on.

有很多人试图对发生的事情给出各种版本的说法。

There are lots of people who are trying to sort of put out versions of what happened.

你知道，有传言说发生了枪战。

You know, there was rumors that there was a gunfight.

据我所知，那完全是胡说八道，不过，嗯。

Total BS as far as I understand, but Mhmm.

这是个黑箱，所以你无法断言概率为零。

It's a black box, so you you can't say zero.

那么，在我们深入探讨其影响和解读之前，你能解析一下清洗的构成和历史吗？

So before we go into the implications and the interpretations, can you break down anatomy of a purge, history of purging?

这感觉像是中国特有的事件。

It feels like a uniquely Chinese just event.

就像，你知道的，当我们选举出新总统时，一批职位会更换，比如新的FDA局长上任等等，我们并不认为这种过渡是清洗，尽管当然，有些人即使是由总统任命的，也可能在任期中途被解雇。

Like, you know, like, we when we elect a new president, a bunch of positions turn over, a new head of the FDA comes in or whatever, and we don't think of that transition as purging, although, of course, some people get fired midterm even if they've been appointed by the president.

那么到底发生了什么？

And so what's actually going on?

这些是被迫辞职吗？

Are these, like, forced resignations?

这些是清洗还是解雇？

Are these purges or are these firings?

他们被拘留接受调查。

They are detained for investigation.

好的。

Okay.

所以

So

这是一个秘密程序，或者涉及所谓的犯罪行为，或违反党纪或军纪的情况。

it's secret process or alleged criminality or alleged violation of of party or or military rules in this case.

然后我们得到的，你知道，只有国防部一位看起来非常紧张的发言人发布的非常简短的声明，宣布张毅嘉和刘正礼二人已被立案调查。

And then they are and all we got, you know, all we all we got was a very terse statement from a very nervous looking Ministry of Defense spokesperson announcing that these two individuals, Zhang Yoshia and Liu Zhengli, had been put under investigation.

就是这样。

That was it.

然后

And then

所以她还没有公开表态，没有就任何这些事公开发声吗？

And so she has not come on the record she has not come on the record about any of this?

没有公开表态。

Not publicly.

像《解放军报》这样的军方报纸已经发表过权威声明，但她本人尚未公开表态。

There there have been authoritative statements in, like, the PLA Daily, which is the military's newspaper, but she has not yet said anything publicly.

可能在某个时候，他或许在内部讨论过此事。

And then there may be at some point, there'll be he probably has talked about it internally.

也许未来某个时候，我们会看到他的一些讲话被公开。但除了这两人被带走调查之外，关于实际发生的情况，我们掌握的公开信息非常非常少。

It'll at some point, maybe we'll get a publication of some of his speeches, But we have very, very little information that's public about what's actually going on other than that these two have been taken away for investigation.

到目前为止，他们在这个机构中的职位尚未有人接替。

And so far, they have not been replaced on this body.

是的。

Mhmm.

而你可以从另一个角度解读，认为这是在集中权力，从而更容易开展军事行动。

And then one way you could potentially read into this is that you're consolidating power, which makes it easier to perform military operations.

另一种可能是，你失去了所有原本会协助你进行军事行动的顶级人物。

The other is that you lost all your top guys who were going to help you with military operations.

你怎么看？

What's your interpretation?

这是个好问题，我认为这两种情况其实都有。

So that's a good question, and I think it kind of is both.

是的。

Mhmm.

在过去两年多的时间里，被撤职的将军和高级军官数量相当惊人。

There's clearly the number of generals and senior officers who have been taken out over the last two plus years is quite shocking.

有几十人之多。

It's in the dozens.

因此，短期内很难想象这不会对军队的作战能力产生一些影响。

And so it it's hard to imagine in the short term, it doesn't have some impact on the military's ability to fight.

但同时，解放军内部也有很多军官，以及许多年轻有为、崭露头角的军官。

In but at the same time, there are a lot of officers and a lot of, you know, younger up and coming officers in the PLA.

要知道，解放军在历史上曾是一个极其腐败的组织，而习近平，他实际上是在2014年真正启动了这次军队的反腐运动。

You know, the PLA has historically been an incredibly corrupt organization, and Xi Jinping has been you know, he started he really kicked off this anti corruption campaign in the PLA in 2014 Mhmm.

可以说是全面展开。

In in sort of full force.

所以可能的情况是，他意识到自己实际上必须对解放军进行一两代人的‘斩首’，才能接触到一批更年轻的军官，这些军官的晋升并非通过购买职位获得——这种方式在过去甚至我认为直到谢伦时期都非常普遍。

And so what may be happening is that he has realized that he just has to effectively decapitate one or two generations of the PLA to get down to a group of younger officers who were promoted not by buying their positions as was very common through up until even I think into the Sheeran

那些职位是怎么定价的？

How did those get how did those get priced?

显然，这个表格非常

Obviously, the table very

所以你们，你们的听众可能会觉得这很有趣。

So you guys your your audience may find this interesting.

这有点像天使投资，至少在某些情况下，人们会集体出资购买一位有前途军官的股份。

It's kinda like an angel investment, at least in some cases, where actually people would collectively buy a stake in a rising officer.

这可不是开玩笑。

Because not joking.

对吧？

Right?

真的是这样。

Literally.

不可能吧。

No way.

然后他们就会出去说，比如这位军官会说：嘿，我在组织里很有潜力。

And then and then So they'd go basically, they'd go out and say like, the officer would be like, hey, I've got some potential within the organization.

我觉得我能拿到这个职位。

I think I can get this job.

让我凑点资金。

Let me pool together some capital.

然后他们把这笔资金 pooled 起来。

And then they pool together that capital.

然后他们

Then they

他们支付给那个人或他人以获得职位，之后就会有收入流回流到原始资金池，这个

They pay off the person or someone to get the role, and then there would be a revenue stream back to the original pool The

这个想法是，你实际上是在购买未来腐败收益的期权。

idea is you're you're buying an option on a future revenue of corrupt goodies.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，我并不是

I mean, I'm not

这确实是一种真实存在的现象。

it's actually a real thing.

如果这个人成功上任，他不仅能靠薪水，还能通过腐败活动赚取大量收入。

If said person gets the job, they'll be able to generate a bunch of revenue not just with their salary, but through, like, corrupt activities.

是的。

Yeah.

他们能为亲近的人创造大量机会。

They have a they can create a whole bunch of opportunities for people who are close to them.

哇。

Wow.

他基本上得到了某个职位。

You solve he basically gets a certain job.

他拥有一定预算的访问权和控制权，基本上在体系内部围绕这些资源建立了一个小型经济圈。

He's got access and control over some amount of budget and creates basically a little economy around around within the stack.

这太疯狂了。

That is insane.

而且，这种情况确实存在——虽然我不确定媒体是否报道过，但我确实听说过，过去某些官员的部分资助者中包括美国中央情报局，因为这是安插人员的绝佳方式，最终他们会欠你人情。

And and and this was and there are there's been certainly, I don't think it's been in the media, but I certainly heard that among the funders of some of these officers in years past was our America CIA because it was a great way to push people in and and and, you know, eventually, they they owe you.

对吧？

Right?

所以，我的意思是，实际上

And so, I mean, it's actually

实际上是中央情报局的亲友圈。

it's actually Friends and family around from the CIA.

是的。

Yep.

我的意思是

I mean

而且，在不深入细节的情况下，这是党一直在谈论的，你知道，要废除这种买卖晋升的过程。

And this is something without going into detail, the party has talked about you know, getting rid of this process of buying and selling promotions.

从之前一些在反腐初期就被拘留的将军案例中，你也能看到这一点。

And you saw from some of the previous cases of generals who were who were detained early on in the sea era.

我是说，那些故事，比如，你知道的，装满黄金的汽车，还有藏在某栋别墅里的、价值数百万美元和欧元的现金行李箱。

I mean, the stories of, like, you know, the the cars full of gold and the, you know, these suitcases of of millions of dollars and euros worth of cash hidden in one of their villas.

我的意思是，腐败的程度简直令人难以置信，因为涉及的金钱数额太庞大了。

I mean, it's it the level of corruption was insane because there's so much money

是的。

Yeah.

被投入军事，你知道的，军事扩张。

Being thrown into military, you know, the military buildup.

嗯。

Mhmm.

有意思。

Interesting.

疯狂。

Crazy.

国家的状况是

What's state of

所以，如果几十年的腐败一直与军事扩张紧密交织在一起，那可能让你对很多实际的作战力量和装备缺乏信心。

And so and so part of that, if you have decades of corruption that have been, like, that has been intimately intertwined with the military buildup, maybe doesn't give you that much confidence in a lot of the actual fighting force and the equipment.

对吧？

Right?

因为资金可能并没有流向最优秀的供应商。

Because it maybe it wasn't going necessarily to the to the best vendor.

而是流向了那些在背后行贿足够的资金的供应商。

It was going to the vendor that was pushing enough money out the back door.

我的意思是，这确实是潜在的风险和担忧。

I mean, that is certainly the the risk and potentially the concern.

我的意思是，除了这些将军们之外，他们还清除了军事工业复合体的大量高层领导。

I mean, you look at in addition to all these generals, they've they've basically taken out a significant chunk of the leadership of the military industrial complex.

各种国防承包商、武器制造商，以及参与武器研发的研究机构负责人。

All sorts of defense contractor, defense, you know, weapons makers, heads of research institutes that were involved in weapons development.

与此同时，这些武器看起来确实有效。

At the same time, the weapons look like they work.

我的意思是，想想中国，腐败问题，你知道，中国拥有先进的高速铁路系统。

I mean, think about China and corruption is, you you know, China has this great high speed rail system.

对吧？

Right?

嗯，真正负责监督的那个人因为腐败而入狱了。

Well, the guy who really oversaw it is in jail because he was corrupt.

所以，但问题是腐败就像是另一种税。

So but but the thing is is the corruption is just sort of like it's another tax.

它仍然有效。

It still works.

它仍然有效。

It still works.

对吗？

Right?

不像其他一些国家，你还是能把事情办成。

Unlike maybe other countries, you still get it done.

它运行得依然相当不错。

It still works pretty well.

但有些人，你知道，会顺便赚点外快。

But some folks, you know, but then you make a little money on the side.

哇。

Wow.

这真有趣。

That's funny.

他实际上得让火车运行起来，这样才能继续坐享其成。

He's like, actually gotta make the trains run so I can keep the gravy train going.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

坐享其成很重要。

The gravy train is important.

那里有很多很多教训。

A lot of lots of lessons there.

唐纳德·特朗普和习近平之间的沟通或关系现状如何？

What's the state of, communications or relationships between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping?

他们经常通话吗？

Are they talking regularly?

他们有面对面会晤吗？

Are they meeting in person?

我们现在是处于局部高点还是局部低点？

What are are are we at, a local top or local bottom?

事情是不是已经糟糕到前所未有的地步了，还是介于两者之间？

Are things the worst they've ever been somewhere in between?

没有。

No.

没有。

No.

我们看起来像是处于一个稳定状态。

We we seem like we're in a steady state.

他们上周打过一次电话，嗯。

They had a a a call last week Mhmm.

这，你知道，再次表明，至少到目前为止，事情正按计划进行，嗯。

Which, you know, again, I think is an indication that so far, at least, things are on track for Mhmm.

为特朗普总统四月初的访华行程。

For president Trump's visit to China in early April.

不过，从中方关于他上周与唐纳德·特朗普通话的通报中，出现了一个小波折。

There was one sort of wrinkle though in the readout from the Chinese side of the of the call he had with with Donald Trump last week.

他在台湾问题，特别是美国对台军售问题上，使用了相当严厉的措辞，因为美国在去年12月宣布了一项价值110亿美元的对台军售计划，这在当时是一个非常大的数字。

He was had some pretty stark language around Taiwan and specifically around US arms sales to Taiwan because The US sold 11 you know, announced an $11,000,000,000 arms sales package to Taiwan back in December, which was at the time, it's a very large number.

美国一直在推出大约十亿美元左右的一揽子计划。

The US has sort of been doing billion or so kind of packages and rolling them out.

中国方面很恼火，但你知道，他们也就继续往前走了。

The Chinese get pissed off, but, you know, they move on.

是的。

Yeah.

110亿美元这个数额是相当可观的。

11,000,000,000 was pretty significant.

我听说，习近平上周提到在对台军售问题上要谨慎，正是因为美国正在筹划一项大规模军售计划。

I had heard that the reason the Xi Jinping had mentioned sort of being prudent around arms sales to Taiwan last week was specifically because The US was working on a big arms package.

中方得知此事后，中国驻华盛顿大使几乎直接前往白宫大发雷霆。

The Chinese had found out about it, the Chinese ambassador here in DC had basically gone to the White House and thrown a fit.

是的。

Mhmm.

上周末，据我所知，周五《金融时报》报道，确实有一项价值200亿美元的军售计划正在筹备中。

Over the weekend, you know, we we we saw I think on Friday, the the Financial Times reported, yes, there's a $20,000,000,000 package in the works.

而中国并不希望此事发生，已威胁要推迟或取消特朗普的访华行程。

And it's something the Chinese don't want to have happen, they have threatened to postpone or cancel Trump's visit.

我认为他们真的可能会这么做。

And I think I think they might actually meet it.

因此，我推测特朗普政府在会晤结束前不会推进这笔军售。

And so I would imagine that the the Trump administration won't push forward that sale until after the the meeting.

但有趣的是，目前还不清楚特朗普是否知情。

What's interesting, though, again, is it's not clear Trump knew about it.

这是政府内部一些更倾向于台湾、对这种现状不太满意的人，我不愿称之为遏制。

This is people in the administration who maybe are more interest who are sort of more pro Taiwan, not happy with this kind of whether you I don't wanna call it detaints.

现在谈这个还为时过早，但过去几个月关系一直维持着这种稳定状态。

It's a little too early for that, but this sort of steady state in the relationship over the last couple months.

嗯。

Mhmm.

他们希望确保台湾仍然得到关注。

And they wanna make sure that Taiwan is still getting attention.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

这很有趣。

It's fascinating.

中国内部是如何阐述台湾问题的？

How does China frame the Taiwan question internally?

在西方，我们都默认一个前提：如果我们提供援助计划，那一定是出于防御目的，唯一的可能场景就是中国将来某天会入侵。

In the West, we sort of all accept the premise that if we're doing an aid package, it's for defense and that the only possible scenario is that China would invade at some future date.

但中国是否会使用这样的说法，比如我们不希望台湾拥有武器，因为我们担心他们会入侵我们？

But does China use rhetoric that's like, well, we don't want Taiwan to have weapons because we're worried about them invading us.

他们甚至会考虑这种说法吗？

Is that even something that they toy with?

还是说，他们真正想表达的是：我们不希望他们拥有武器，因为我们自己计划在将来某时采取行动？

Or are they saying like, we don't want them to have weapons because we're planning to do this at some point?

嗯，不会。

Well, no.

我认为他们并不担心台湾会入侵。

I I don't think they're worried about Taiwan invading.

我认为更准确的说法是，台湾是他们最重要的红线之一，尤其是在中美关系中。

I think it's more, you know, they Taiwan is the first of their of their red lines, especially in The US China relationship.

所以他们最终并不希望——我的意思是，美国方面。

And so they but ultimately, you know, they they don't want I mean, The US Yeah.

说我们会卖给你们一大堆武器。

Saying we're gonna sell you a bunch of weapons.

即使现在，例如台湾，由于台湾政坛的现状，你知道，台湾立法机构不会批准购买上一批武器的预算，因为反对党与联盟党控制了立法机构。

Even if right now, for example, Taiwan, because of the political what's going on in the Taiwan politics, you know, the the Taiwan legislature won't approve the the budget to buy the last package of weapons because it's the opposition party controls with the with the coalition party controls the legislature.

所以这2000万美元的援助计划

So this $20,000,000 package

我们是否应该假设中共特工已经有效地渗透了反对党？

Should we assume that CCP operatives have effectively infiltrated the opposition party?

还是说这种想法太阴谋论了？

Or is that too much of a tinfoil hat?

因为我想，如果你是……嗯。

Because I imagine that if if you were Mhmm.

这值得花时间去尝试让你的团队

It would it would be worth the time to try to get your team

出去

Get out