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今天是2025年12月5日，星期五。
Today is Friday, 12/05/2025.
我们再次从
We are live again from the
纽约证券交易所为您带来现场报道。
New York Stock Exchange.
感谢船只支援，
Thank you for the boats,
很高兴能来到
It's good to be
这个真正的金融堡垒，资本之都。
the real fortress of finance, the capital of capital.
科技圣殿重返好莱坞。
The temple of technology, it's back in Hollywood.
我们周一才会到那里，但今天为大家准备了一场精彩的节目。
We'll be there on Monday, but we have a great show for you today, folks.
我们有凯斯·拉博伊亲临现场。
We have Keith Raboy joining us in person.
我们有纽约证券交易所总裁林恩·马丁。
We have Lynn Martin, president of the New York Stock Exchange.
我们有艾米丽·桑伯格。
We have Emily Sunberg.
我们还有一位嘉宾。
And do we have we have one more.
亚当·费兹，又见面了。
Adam Faze, again.
它有
It's had
关于华纳兄弟的一些犀利见解。
some hot takes on the WB.
这是
Which is
最重要的
the top
今天除了Ram和Patanya的资金问题外，最引人关注的新闻就是两者都得以保全。
story today other than, of course, Ram, Patanya's money, save both.
他使用了公司信用卡，
He's used corporate cards,
账单支付、会计处理以及大量业务
Bill payments, accounting, and a whole lot
全部集中在一个平台上完成。
more all in one place.
让我告诉你一些关于Netflix的事实。
Let me give you some facts about Netflix.
他们将以827亿美元的价格收购或被收购华纳兄弟和HBO Max。
They're gonna be bought by or they're gonna buy Warner Brothers and HBO Max for an $82,700,000,000 deal.
这笔收购预计将在华纳兄弟探索公司剥离其全球电视网络部门后完成，时间定于2026年第三季度。
The acquisition is expected to close following Warner Brothers Discovery spin off of Discovery Global TV Networks division in q three twenty twenty six.
时间线上有一系列有趣的事情正在发生。
There's a bunch of fun, interesting things hitting the timeline.
显然，由于涉及Netflix，这首先是个科技新闻。
Obviously, there's a tech story because of Netflix.
同时它也是媒体新闻，而且你知道，同样是个公开市场新闻。
It's also a media story and, you know, a public market story as well.
而且这将是我们会长期讨论的话题，因为...
And it is a story that we we will be talking about for quite a while because Yes.
尽管这个交易是在过去24小时内宣布的，但在真正获得监管批准前，很可能会经历一个漫长的过程。
Although or although this gotten announced in the last twenty four hours, it's very likely that this is gonna be a very long drawn out process before it actually gets regulatory approval.
是啊。
Yeah.
好吧，让我来读读《Variety》杂志对这笔交易的精彩总结。
Well, let me read through Variety that had a great summary of the deal.
但首先，让我介绍一下graphite.dev。
But first, let me tell you about graphite.dev.
面向AI时代的代码审查，graphite帮助GitHub团队更快地交付更高质量的软件。
Code review for the age of AI, graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster.
所以这是官方的消息。
So it's official.
在一项将彻底重塑娱乐产业的举措中，Netflix和华纳兄弟（简称WB）。
In a move that will dramatically reshape the entertainment business, Netflix and Warner Brothers or WB.
别叫它华纳兄弟，虽然我们很想这么称呼。
Don't call it Warner Bros, although we we want to.
内部人士称其为华纳兄弟或WB。
The insiders, they call it Warner Brothers or WB.
华纳兄弟探索公司周五宣布与Netflix达成协议，Netflix将收购华纳兄弟，包括其电影电视工作室、HBO Max和HBO。
Warner Brothers Discovery announced an agreement Friday under which Netflix will acquire Warner Brothers, including its film and TV studios, HBO Max and HBO.
公司表示，该交易总企业价值（含债务）达827亿美元，股权价值为720亿美元。
The deal has total enterprise value, including debt of 82,700,000,000.0 with an equity value of 72,000,000,000, the company said.
Netflix宣布收购华纳兄弟流媒体及影视业务的交易，此前经历了长达数周的竞标战，这家流媒体巨头与David Ellison的派拉蒙、Skydance和康卡斯特展开了激烈竞争。
The announcement of Netflix's deal to buy the Warner Brothers streaming and studio business came after a weeks long bidding war that pitted the streaming giant against David Ellison's Paramount, Skydance, and Comcast.
周四晚间有消息爆出，Netflix已与WBD就华纳兄弟和HBO Max的交易进入独家谈判阶段。
News broke Thursday evening that Netflix had entered into exclusive negotiations with WBD on a deal for Warner Brothers and HBO Max.
引用Netflix联席CEO Ted Sarandos的话。
Quote from Netflix co CEO Ted Sarandos.
他说：'我知道你们中有些人惊讶我们会进行这次收购，我想人们感到意外是因为Netflix的股价因此下跌了吗？'
He said, I know some of you are surprised we're making this acquisition, and I think people were surprised because didn't Netflix's stock trade down on this news?
股价确实跌了。
People It's down.
人们是
People are
在担心
Are worried about the
也有人对此感到兴奋。
some people are excited about it.
是啊。
Yeah.
有些人出于各种原因对此并不感到兴奋。
Some people are plenty of people are not excited about it for various reasons.
有人认为这笔交易不会获得批准。
Some people don't think it'll get approved.
还有人觉得，你知道，这确实是个重大扩展。
Other people think this is, you know, it's quite an extension.
显然涉及院线发行。
Obviously does theatrical releases.
他们拥有影院业务。
They have a movie theater business.
这绝对会是一个相当大的扩展
It's not it's definitely will be an ex quite an extension
嗯。
Mhmm.
对于Netflix当前的核心业务来说。
To Netflix's core business today.
是的。
Yeah.
作为参考，Netflix是一家市值4250亿美元的公司，今日下跌2.6%。
Netflix for reference, $425,000,000,000 company down 2.6% today.
虽然还不至于跌落悬崖，但人们显然已经注意到了这一点。
So not falling off a cliff or anything, but certainly people taking note of this.
时间线上已经有不少关于此事的专栏文章发表了。
There's also a number of op eds about this already out on the timeline.
我们可以浏览其中一些内容。
We can go through some of those.
但首先，让我介绍一下Vanta，它能自动化合规与安全流程，其AI技术支撑着从证据收集、持续监控到安全审查的全流程。
But first, let me tell you about Vanta, automate compliance and security, AI that powers everything from evidence collection and continuous monitoring to security reviews.
因此Netflix期待能——引用原话——'维持华纳兄弟的运营'。
So Netflix expects it excited expects to, quote, maintain Warner Brothers.
该公司表示，历史上他们更倾向于建设者而非收购者，因此Netflix试图向粉丝、员工乃至那些可能将华纳兄弟探索视为优质资产（无需拆解出售）的人们传递信心。
It said said the company has historically been more of a builder than a buyer, and so Netflix is trying to, like, sort of reassure both fans, employees, even people who might just see Warner Brothers Discovery as, like, a fantastic asset that doesn't need to be, like, stripped for parts.
他试图反驳一种潜在论调，即Netflix会采取极其冷酷的成本削减措施，从而丧失那些让华纳兄弟艺术创作如此出色的特质。
He's trying to push back against a potential narrative that Netflix will will be very ruthless and cost cutting and and lose some of that, you know, what people think made WB amazing art.
因此他表示，Netflix计划维持华纳兄弟现有运营模式，并发挥其优势——包括继续推行电影影院发行策略。
So he said, Netflix expects to maintain Warner Brothers' current operations and build on its strengths, including theatrical releases for films.
我知道这对你无所谓，因为你从不去电影院也从不——
I know this doesn't matter to you because you never go to the theater and you never
喂。
Hey.
什么？
What?
我们去看过《沙丘》的。
We went and saw Dune.
那都是两年前的事了。
We got That was, like, two years ago.
但我们那次确实搞了个
But we got a we we got a when we did that, it was a
特别开心。
lot of fun.
我们召集了一帮兄弟，
We got a bunch of the guys we got a bunch of the guys together.
说好要每月聚一次。
We said we're gonna make the monthly thing.
是啊。
Yeah.
我们差点就做到了。
We were close.
结果六个月就黄了。
Done in six.
在...在
At at
年初的时候，我们就在做这件事。
the start of the year, we were doing that.
我们当时就在做这件事。
We were doing that.
我们把大家聚在一起，就像男生之夜那样，不过是去电影院，因为我们觉得这样不错。
We were getting everyone together, just like guys night out kind of, but to the movie theater because we were like, okay.
如果你是个男生，有一群男性朋友，想聚会但又不太喜欢喝酒，该怎么办呢？
What do you do if you're a guy and you have a bunch of guy friends and you wanna, you know, go meet up, but you don't really like drinking?
你对体育一窍不通？
You don't know anything about sports?
比如，周二晚上能做什么？
Like, what can you do on a Tuesday night?
穿上正装去你当地的电影院
Suit up and head to your local movie
看电影。
theater.
去当地的电影院。
To the local movie theater.
而且，幸运的是，感觉网飞公司肯定听到了我们说的话。
And, fortunately, it feels like Netflix must have heard what we said.
他们可能——这简直就像是对我们的直接回应。
They probably this this seems like a direct reaction to us.
有可能。
Potentially.
有可能。
Potentially.
不过我们确实需要重返影院，因为最近我们对它们的支持远远不够。
We do need to go back to the theater, though, because we have not been supporting them nearly enough recently.
但这确实是个好时机，而且我认为定下这个基调很重要。
But it is a good time, and it and I do think it is important to set this tone.
我是说，现实情况是，影院终将发生变化。
Like, I mean, the reality is that, like, like, theaters are going to change.
这就像，你知道的，AI领域的快速崛起，流媒体领域的快速崛起。
They are that like, the it there's a question of, like, you know, fast takeoff in AI, fast takeoff in streaming.
比如，自从能在互联网上看视频已经过去二十年了，家庭影院曾是居家观影的一种方式。
Like, it's been twenty years since you've been able to watch things on the Internet, so you've been able to watch, home box office was a way to watch a movie at home.
是啊。
Yeah.
某种程度上，能在家里放台电视就是影院衰落的开始。
In some ways, the ability to put a TV in someone's house was the beginning of the end for the theater Yeah.
因为它们立刻成了替代品，尽管区别在于巨幕对小小的CRT显像管。
Because they were immediately substitutes, although the difference was massive screen versus tiny CRT.
然后情况就变成了，好吧。
And then it was like, okay.
一台42英寸的平板电视。
A 42 inch TV flat screen.
十年前可能得花上几千美元。
Now that might cost a couple grand, you know, ten years ago.
当时我在某个地方——好像是Target超市，看到一台42英寸的电视。
Now I was at I was somewhere I think I was at Target, and I saw a 42 inch TV.
广告上标价大概75美元左右。
Think it advertised for, like, $75 or something.
这价格便宜得有点可疑。
It's, like, suspiciously cheap.
实在是太便宜了。
It was so cheap.
就像超市的烤鸡促销价一样。
It's like a rotisserie chicken.
他们只是想用低价吸引你进店。
I was just trying to get you in the door.
对我来说，大学时期42英寸电视可是黄金标准。
I mean, in college for me, like, the 42 inch TV was the gold standard.
是啊。
Yeah.
我们没赶上65、75、85那个年代。
We weren't in the era of the '65, the '75, the '85.
那时候大尺寸电视还没普及，但42英寸电视
Like, the big TVs hadn't arrived, but the 42 inch TV
已经很不错了。
was good.
就像你是城堡里的国王。
Like you're the king of the castle.
是啊。
Yeah.
你就是城堡里的国王。
You were the king of the castle.
拥有一台42英寸电视在当时是笔不小的开销。
You had a 42 inch, and it was, like, a serious expense.
要花好几千美元呢。
It was a couple grand.
现在它们几乎是在白送。
Now they're practically giving them away.
因此，这自然会产生竞争压力，但也不会立即摧毁影院，而是会在几十年间产生侵蚀效应，这正是目前正在发生的情况。
And so, of course, that's gonna be a competitive pressure, but, also, it's not gonna destroy the theater immediately, but it's going to have an erosion effect over decades, and that's exactly what's happening.
但值得欣慰的是，Netflix并未宣称这是影院的终结。
But it's nice that Netflix is not declaring this the end of the theater.
他们将继续投资以提供支持。
They're gonna continue to invest in support.
而且我认为，这无疑会鼓励大家继续支持华纳兄弟、Discovery和Netflix。
And and I I I think this will, you know, certainly, you know, encourage everyone to continue supporting Warner Brothers and Discovery and Netflix.
因此Netflix表示将保留HBO Max作为独立服务，同时宣扬其平台新增了HBO和HBO Max的内容。
So Netflix signaled it would keep HBO Max as a discrete service while it also touted the addition of HBO and HBO Max content to its lineup.
我们将把HBO和HBO Max的深度影视资源库及节目内容纳入其中。
And so we're gonna add the deep film and TV libraries and HBO to and HBO Max programming.
Netflix会员将能享受更多高品质
Netflix members will have even more high
优质服务。
quality service.
Netflix Max。
Netflix Max.
你需要Netflix Maxing。
You need to be Netflix Maxing.
也许等等看。
Maybe that's wait.
这就是他们做HBO Max的原因吗？
Is that why they did HBO Max?
因为他们想要它像，哦，
Because they wanted it to be like, oh,
你在HBO Maxing吗？
you're HBO Maxing?
你得到了HBO Max。
You get HBO Max.
然后它改名为Max。
Then it was Max.
然后又改回HBO。
Then it was back to HBO.
人们总是对HBO指手画脚，吐槽他们的品牌重塑混乱，但Max这个名字其实很棒——毕竟他们本可以叫HBO Plus的。
People people give them so much they talk so much trash about HBO with the with the rebrand chaos, but Max is a great term as opposed to because they could've done HBO Plus.
不。
No.
我的意思是，批评在于HBO已经建立了如此强大的品牌。
I mean, the critique there was HBO has built up such an incredible brand.
是的。
Yes.
他们本不该完全
They never should've gone
采用Max这个名字。
purely Max.
要感谢斯科特·加洛威，我记得他严厉批评他们放弃HBO品牌的行为。
And credit to Scott Galloway, I remember he went so hard on them for dropping HBO.
哦，这太疯狂了。
Oh, that's crazy.
你们花了，怎么说呢，几十年时间建立起这个了不起的品牌，然后就这么轻易说再见。
You've you've spent, like, you've spent decades building up this incredible brand, and you're just like, see you.
我们就叫Max好了。
We'll just be called Max.
他们花了大概两年时间搞HBO Max化。
They spent, like, two years HBO Maxing.
他们花了二十年时间搞HBO Max化，然后就直接变成了Max Max化。
Well, they spent two decades HBO Maxing, and then And they just went Max Maxing.
先是HBO Max Max化，然后就直接变成了Max Max化。
HBO Max Maxing, and then they just went Max Maxing.
而这正是终结的开始。
And that was that was the end the beginning of the end.
但文章继续写道。
The But article goes on.
这使Netflix能够优化消费者方案，增强观看选择，并扩大内容获取渠道。
This allows Netflix to optimize plans for consumers, enhancing viewing options, and expanding access to content.
Netflix表示，预计在华纳兄弟探索交易完成后的第三年，每年可节省20至30亿美元成本。
Netflix says they expect to see 2 to $3,000,000,000 in cost savings annually by the third year after the Warner Brothers Discovery deal closes.
让我们看看。
Let's see.
公司预计该交易将在第二年实现每股收益增长。
The company expects the transaction to be accretive to earnings per share by year two.
这笔现金加股票交易估值为每股27美元，时间表还在反复调整中。
The cash and stock transaction was valued at $27 per share, and the timeline is going back and forth on this.
好的。
Okay.
莱娅，咱们来讨论些观点吧。
Leia, let let let's get into some takes.
是啊。
So Yeah.
另一方面，《信息报》实际上在之前就发表了一篇相当尖锐的分析文章。
The counter side of this, the information actually had a pretty scathing a scathing kind of analysis Before the
我要告诉你选择public.com的原因，这是为认真对待投资的人准备的平台。
reason I'm gonna tell you off public.com, investing for those who take it seriously.
他们提供多元资产投资服务，并受到数百万用户的信赖。
They have multi asset investing, and they're trusted by millions.
我早些时候读过这篇报道。
So I read through this earlier.
这是马丁·皮尔斯的观点。
This is from Martin Pearce.
他表示Netflix收购华纳的交易是一个827亿美元的华纳。
He says Netflix's Warner purchase is an 82,700,000,000.0 Warner.
败笔。
Blunder.
他称之为一个重大失误。
He's calling it a blunder.
他说周五早上可能宣布的消息，很可能会被证明是这个管理团队犯下的惊人错误，而该团队此前几乎从未失手。
He says it will likely announced Friday morning will likely prove a stupendous error by a management team that until now has rarely put a wrong foot.
Netflix付出了高昂代价，以27.5倍于明年预期收益的价格收购，远高于影视公司普遍估值，而这项交易可能无助于其增加多少订阅用户。
Netflix paying a huge price, 27 and a half times next year's expected earnings well above prevailing multiples for film and TV companies for businesses that likely won't help it add many subscribers.
对吧？
Right?
嗯
Mhmm.
就像Netflix现在用户饱和了，今天很多人都在用
After like Netflix has like saturation, a lot of people today.
所以从消费者角度来看，如果你订阅了Netflix和HBO Max，你会觉得，不错
So from a consumer standpoint, if you subscribe to Netflix and HBO Max, you're gonna be like, cool.
我可以停掉其中一项服务，直接转到这边来
I can churn off of one of these services and just switch over to here.
问题是，Netflix会因此受到激励继续提高订阅价格吗？
Question is, will then Netflix, will will they be incentivized to just keep pushing the the price of the subscription?
是的。
Yep.
他们正在增加更多内容和知识产权，所以我预计他们会这么做。
They're adding more content, more IP, and so I would expect them to do that.
马丁继续写道，此外，这笔交易很可能会面临严重的监管障碍。
Martin continues, moreover, the deal is likely to face severe regulatory obstacles.
再次说明，Netflix并不完全与特朗普立场一致。
Again, so Netflix is not exactly Trump aligned.
嗯。
Mhmm.
对吧？
Right?
Netflix之前与奥巴马夫妇达成了合作协议。
They the Netflix did the deal with the Obamas.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我认为在一个Netflix打算...抱歉。
And so I think that in a world where Netflix was going to sorry.
华纳兄弟要收购派拉蒙，我觉得那通过的可能性大得多。
WB is going to Paramount, I could see that much more likely to to get through.
而这个嘛...是的。
Whereas this Yeah.
这肯定会让Netflix团队至少在未来一年里，我猜都得忙着处理这事。
This is gonna make make sure the the Netflix, like, team is gonna be spending, at least the next year, I would assume working on this.
然后自从我们开始
And then since we started
你说的监管批准是指什么？
What do mean regulatory approval?
对。
Yeah.
只是试图让这件事通过。
Just trying to get this across the line.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
我是说，这感觉很难证明这会形成某种垄断，因为迪士尼拥有它，就像，没错。
I mean, it it feels like it's so hard to make the case that this creates some sort of monopoly because Disney owns it's like, yes.
好吧。
Okay.
现在Netflix有了。好吧。
Now Netflix has Okay.
话虽如此。
That's said.
他们还有蝙蝠侠。
And they also have Batman.
但是
But
华纳媒体前CEO杰森·基拉尔表示：'如果要我设法减少好莱坞的竞争，我想不出比将华纳兄弟探索公司卖给Netflix更有效的方式了。'
Jason Kilar, who's a former Warner Media CEO, says, if I were tasked with doing so, I could not think of a more effective way to reduce competition in Hollywood than selling WBD to Netflix.
那卖给迪士尼呢？
What about selling it to Disney?
你可是同时拥有蝙蝠侠、超人和所有漫威角色。
You literally have Batman, Superman, and all the Marvel characters.
你还有蜘蛛侠和星球大战。
You have Spider Man and Star Wars.
在我看来，这感觉比现状更具垄断性——现在蝙蝠侠和超人就像孤岛般存在。
That feels like that would be less competitive than having right right now, from my perspective, you have you have Batman and Superman kind of off an island.
他们始终没能像漫威那样成功打造出复仇者联盟、灭霸、钢铁侠那样的超级IP体系
They haven't really been able to get that that that engine going to the same degree as Marvel, the Avengers, Thanos, Iron Man,
比如本·韦斯说的对吧
something like named Ben Weiss Right.
表示，不同意。
Says, disagree.
好莱坞正在与硅 Valley、苹果、亚马逊、谷歌、Meta等硅谷巨头竞争， 保留传统好莱坞内部及之间的某些竞争概念， 可能会赢得一场战斗却输掉整个战争——这些传统媒体公司 needs to Mhmm。
Hollywood is competing with Silicon Valley, Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, preserving some notion of competition in and between legacy Hollywood, risks winning a battle and losing a war the old media companies need to Mhmm.
需要更多正确类型的规模。
More of the right type of scale.
这对华纳兄弟来说就是答案。
This does it for WB.
杰森说，当我使用‘好莱坞竞争’这个词时，我指的是要有足够数量充满活力且强大的实体，它们能够并且愿意激烈竞争，制作和发行电影。
Jason says, when I use that phrase competition in Hollywood, I'm referring to having a sufficient number of vibrant and robust entities that can and will aggressively compete against each other to produce and distribute films Okay.
包括剧集、直播活动等未来几十年的内容。
Series, live events, and more for decades to come.
我并不关注这一切的历史遗产。
I'm not focused on the legacy of it all.
所以，是的。
So Yeah.
我...我还是会说这大概能排第二。
I I would still I would still say this is, like, number two.
但我的意思是，可能排名还挺靠前的。
But it I mean, it might be high.
不过单就好莱坞电影制作而言，这些领域看起来竞争异常激烈。
But just in terms of, like, Hollywood filmmaking, these feel like extremely competitive areas.
现在有太多不同的流媒体服务，还有各种组合套餐可供选择。
There are so many different there are so many different streaming services and and and bundles that you can piece together.
有些人会说：对啊，
There are folks who are like, yeah.
你知道吗？
You know what?
我在亚马逊购物，所以我有Prime会员。
I ordered from Amazon, so I have Amazon Prime.
我所有内容都在那里看。
That's where I watch everything.
还是有人会直接去苹果，你知道的，就是Apple TV直接买部电影。
There are still people that just go to Apple, you know, Apple TV and just buy a movie.
你懂吗？
You know?
你仍然可以这么做。
You can still just do that.
你可以完全沉浸在Netflix的生态里。
You can be over off in the Netflix ecosystem.
你也可以选择Hulu的生态系统。
You can be in the Hulu ecosystem.
感觉现在媒体行业并不缺乏激烈的竞争。
Like, there it it doesn't feel like there's a a a crazy lack of competition in media right now.
是啊。
Yeah.
所以我也说不准。
So I I don't know.
我...我是说...如果这事没成的话，我确实会有点意外，不过你也说不准。
I I'm I'm I'm I I would be I would be somewhat surprised if this doesn't if this doesn't go through, but, I mean, you never know.
我不知道。
I don't know.
说到网飞，我们之前还和有线电视的高管共进午餐来着，嗯。
I think Netflix again, we were we were before this, were having lunch with cable exec Mhmm.
他当时提到网飞有点被卷入那些'觉醒'文化的东西里了。
And he was kind of bringing up how Netflix had gotten caught up a little bit in kind of some of the the the woke stuff.
确实。
Sure.
而且我觉得在特朗普时代的美国，嗯...
And again, I just think in in in a in Trump America, I just feel far more likely Mhmm.
艾莉森家族更有可能达成协议。
That the Allisons could get a deal done.
他们可是出了名的难缠。
And they're notoriously absolute dogs.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Yeah.
所以他们打算，呃，不。
So that's that they're go that they're gonna, like No.
所以是的。
So yes.
他们会尝试出更高价。
They're gonna try and outbid.
对吧？
Right?
所以现在的情况是，对。
So right now, this is Yeah.
在播什么？
What's on?
福克斯的克里斯·加斯佩里尼报道称，据知情人士透露，派拉蒙和Skydance目前正考虑对华纳兄弟探索发起敌意收购，因为他们认为其每股30美元的全现金报价实际上高于Netflix提出的现金加股票及有线业务分拆价值的综合报价。
Chris Gasperini over at at Fox says, Scoop, as reported, Paramount and Skydance Skydance is now looking to launch a hostile bid for WBD because it feels its $30 a share all cash offer is actually higher than what Netflix offered in terms of cash stock and the value of the spin off of the cable business.
所以这一事件仍在发展中。
So this is still developing.
不过
But
是啊。
Yeah.
总之，我们的粉丝提供了一些有趣的背景故事。
Anyways, our fan had some interesting backstory.
他说，这个结果太疯狂了，尤其是在Netflix于2002年上市前这三个疯狂的假设之后。
He says, wild outcome, especially after these three wild what ifs before Netflix IPO ed in 2002.
在Netflix于2002年上市前，贝索斯显然曾出价1200万美元想收购它。
Before Netflix IPO ed in 2002, apparently Bezos offered 12,000,000 to buy it.
你能想象Netflix当初要是以120亿美元被收购会怎样吗？
Can you imagine if Netflix had sold for 12,000,000,000?
嗯，他们当时还试图在期间把百视达卖掉
Well, they also tried to sell the Blockbuster during the
所以百视达本有机会以5000万美元收购它，但他们一笑置之。
So Blockbuster had a chance to buy it for 50,000,000, and they laughed it off.
但那时它只是个DVD邮寄服务，他们觉得'我们自己也能搞这个'。
But then it was just a DVD delivery service, and they were like, we can build this.
我们也有DVD。
We have DVDs.
我们拥有全部基础设施。
We have all the infrastructure.
直接从门店调货就行。
We can just take it from the stores.
觉得根本没必要收购。
Like, we don't need to do this.
但他们没意识到真正构建技术、打造流媒体服务平台并实现规模化意味着什么——网飞现在可是拥有顶级基础设施的
But what they didn't realize was that actually building technology, actually building a real tech, like, streaming service and scaling that platform, I mean, Netflix has some of the greatest, like, just infrastructure
嗯，甚至早期的推荐引擎也是。
Well, and and even the early recommendation engines.
就像我
It's like I
我记得我爸当时说，是啊。
I I remember my dad being like, yeah.
Netflix刚刚推荐了。
Netflix just recommended.
它知道我喜欢什么，就直接给我发了这个。
It knows what I like, and it just said it sent me this.
他们说你会喜欢这个的。
They said you're gonna enjoy this.
是啊。
Yeah.
对啊。
Yeah.
是啊。
Yeah.
然后伯纳德·阿诺德用一张3000万美元的支票救了它。
And then Bernard Arnaud saved it with a $30,000,000 check.
你知道这事吗？
Did you know this?
Netflix？
Netflix?
还有伯纳德·阿诺德的OTT业务。
And Bernard Arnaud Over the top.
我超爱这个。
I love it.
太喜欢了。
Love it.
我当时在想把这些东西整合起来的实际价值，就像你说的，把Netflix和华纳兄弟合并，但问题是大家已经都订阅Netflix了。
I was I I was thinking about the actual value of putting these these things together because, like, you're you were making the point that putting Netflix and and and Warner Brothers together, it doesn't like, everyone's already subscribed to Netflix.
我不确定这是否属实，如果趋势持续下去的话。
I don't know I don't know if that's true, if if the if the trends continue.
比如，Netflix拥有相当数量的内容，像他们的《鱿鱼游戏》。
Like, Netflix has a fair amount of, like like, they have their Squid Games.
他们有一些重量级的IP。
They have some big they have some big IP.
但如果你想想HBO那些每季回归的热门剧，比如'你还没看《权力的游戏》吗？'
But if you just think about, like, the drumbeat of HBO come back every season, oh, you're not watching Game of Thrones?
你就落伍了。
You're out of the loop.
'你还没看《继承之战》吗？'
Oh, you're not watching Succession?
你就落伍了。
You're out of the loop.
我觉得推动话题的剧集在HBO上比Netflix要持续得多。
Like, the conversation driving shows, I feel like are on HBO much more consistently than Netflix.
事实上，我甚至不确定我现在是否在手机上登录了Netflix。
And in fact, I don't even know if I'm logged into Netflix on my phone right now.
我知道我还在付费，但我真的不怎么观看。
I know I'm still paying, but I really don't watch it very much.
我认为原因是我还没有遇到那种‘哦，你错过好东西了’的感觉。
And I think that the reason is because I just haven't had Oh, you're missing out.
真正的狂热爱好者。
True enthusiast.
对我来说，作为一个非狂热爱好者
For me, as someone who's not an enthusiast
是啊。
Yeah.
我会选择Prime，因为我很少看电影。
I'll go to Prime because I'm like, I rarely watch movies.
如果我要看电影，我宁愿直接购买。
If I'm gonna watch a movie, I wanna I'll I'm happy to just buy.
我不是，是的。
I'm not Yes.
打算做同样的事情
Going do the same thing
让我们选择免费选项吧，当然。
on Let get the let get the the free option Sure.
在Netflix上。
On Netflix.
我想，我会直接购买，当然。
I'm like, I will just buy Sure.
当然。
Sure.
当然。
Sure.
我想用这九十分钟来填满的内容。
The the thing that I wanna fill this ninety minutes with.
是的。
Yes.
总之，但他们的协议不包括WBD，好吧。
Anyway, so But they the deal doesn't include w d d Okay.
WBD的有线电视频道，比如CNN、TNT、TBS、Discovery频道，是的。
WBD's cable channels such as CNN, TNT, TBS, Discovery Yeah.
正在被剥离出去。
Are being spun off.
好的。
Okay.
但我们还不知道最终会怎样，还是说人们只是在猜测？
But we don't know where that will land yet or or are people speculating?
即使Netflix获得监管批准，也需要承担500亿美元的债务来完成交易，并且我们将花费数年时间削减成本以减少债务。
Even if Netflix gets regulatory approval, it will have to take on 50,000,000,000 in debt to complete the deal and we'll spend a couple of years cutting costs to reduce that debt.
嗯。
Mhmm.
Netflix的年自由现金流约为10.09美元或100亿美元。
Netflix does do around $10.09 or 10,000,000,000 of free cash flow.
是的。
Yeah.
因此他们完全有能力偿还债务。
And so they can certainly service the debts.
没错。
Yep.
但无论如何，今年前九个月，WBD的影视工作室和流媒体业务产生了23亿美元的盈利。嗯。
But anyways, in the first nine months of this year, WBD's studio and streaming operations generated 2,300,000,000.0 in earnings Mhmm.
是EBITDA指标。
In in EBITDA.
Netflix高管表示，他们预计华纳业务明年将产生30亿美元的EBITDA。
Next year, Netflix executives said they expected the Warner business to generate 3,000,000,000 in EBITDA.
考虑到他们预期实现的25亿美元成本节约后，这相当于27.5倍的EBITDA估值。
That's a price of 27 and a half times EBITDA after taking into account cost savings of 2 and a half billion they expect to make.
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Netflix表示这笔交易的估值倍数为14.3倍。
Netflix says the deal value represents a multiple of 14.3 times.
WBD的传统竞争对手迪士尼和派拉蒙Skydance的估值倍数都在11倍左右。
WBD's traditional rivals Disney and Paramount Skydance are each trading around 11 times.
嗯。
Mhmm.
总之这部分我们可以略过。
Anyways, we can kind of skip over this.
克莱默说，Netflix一出手就稳坐全球最大内容生产商的宝座。
Kramer said, so out of the box, Netflix as the world's biggest content creator by far.
虽然激动人心，但对股东来说未必是好事。
Exciting, but not necessarily in a good way for shareholders.
我觉得这太有意思了。
I think that's so funny.
让我为你介绍Fin.ai——客户服务领域排名第一的AI助手。
Let me tell you about Fin dot a I, the number one AI agent for customer service.
在所有渠道上实现最复杂客户服务查询的自动化处理。
Automate the most complex customer service queries on every channel.
亚当·法伊兹将在一两个小时后上节目。
Adam Faiz is coming out on the show in just an hour or two.
他说，我认为人们还没意识到如果这笔交易达成，Netflix即将开展的授权业务规模。
He says, I don't think people realize the licensing business Netflix is about to have if this deal goes through.
仅华纳兄弟动画IP库就能带来数十亿美元的新商品收入，再加上平台上这些标志性节目的新版本。
Warner Brothers animated IP library alone would bring in billions in new merchandising revenue coupled with new versions of these iconic shows in the platform.
游戏结束。
Game over.
他列举了其中一些角色，我觉得最搞笑的是大嘴公鸡。
And he list some of these out, and one of them I think is hilarious is Foghorn Leghorn.
他们拥有乐一通系列。
They own Looney Tunes.
所以他们有兔八哥、达菲鸭、胖小猪、崔弟、BB鸟、歪心狼。
So they have Bugs Bunny, Daffy Duck, Porky Pig, Sylvester, Roadrunner, Wile E.
郊狼。
Coyote.
这些都是，没错，这些都是经久不衰的标志性角色。
These are, yeah, these are these are time honored iconic iconic characters.
我只是觉得好笑，因为很明显，有一群银行家面前摆着电子表格，其中某一行就写着'大嘴公鸡'。
I just think it's funny because very clearly, there are a series of bankers out there that have a spreadsheet, and somewhere they have a row, and on that row is Foghorn Leghorn.
而与大嘴公鸡关联的，是这个说话带滑稽口音的大公鸡角色的知识产权价值。
And attached to Foghorn Leghorn is the value of the intellectual property of Foghorn Leghorn, who's like a large rooster who talks with a funny accent.
我都能想象他们在那里说：'没错，大嘴公鸡值这个价'。
And I just imagine that they're out there saying, yeah, foghorn leghorn.
那大概值个三千万吧。
That's, like, 30,000,000.
那可是三千万美元的生意。
That's a $30,000,000 business.
行吧。
Like, okay.
约塞米蒂·萨姆，那可是价值5000万美元的生意。
Yosemite Sam, that's a $50,000,000 business.
波基猪？
Porgy pig?
波基猪值8000万。
Porgy pig's 80,000,000.
所以让我们分一杯羹吧。
So let's give us some of the parts.
我真心希望华尔街的某个人，某个投资银行家
I really hope that someone on Wall Street, some some investment banker
实际上亚当·安特被严重低估了。
It's actually Adam Ant is for being really undervalued.
没错。
Exactly.
其实我认为这是个价值20亿的资产。
Actually think this is a $2,000,000,000 property.
哦，迪克·达斯塔德利？
Oh, Dick Dastardly?
你认为迪克·达斯塔德利的智力财产价值值800万美元？
You think Dick Dastardly is worth 8,000,000 in in intellectual property value?
是啊。
Yeah.
没错。
Right.
那史纳格普斯呢？
What about Snagglepuss?
我甚至不知道。
I don't even know.
我以为你在编造一些
I thought you were making some
这些。
these up.
不。
No.
我知道你熟悉汉纳巴伯拉、快枪手麦格劳、乔尼大冒险、太空幽灵和赫克鲁力士这些角色。
This is I know you're like the Hannah Barbera, Quikdraw McGraw, Johnny Quest, Space Ghost, the Herculoids.
赫克鲁力士听起来像是什么疯狂的非迷因梗。
Herculoids sounds like some crazy crazy non meme.
噗噗。
Boo boo.
赫克鲁力士看起来像是用罗马雕像当头像的人。
Herculoid seems like someone with a with a Roman statue avatar.
好吧。
Okay.
所以Polymarket预测谁将收购华纳兄弟的选项现在是
So so Polymarket has who will acquire WB at Yes.
86%的几率。
86% today.
派拉蒙目前仍仅有6%的份额。
Paramount is still only sitting at 6%.
6%。
6%.
所以
So
亚马逊在后面？
the Amazon behind?
亚马逊亚马逊仍以'Yes'选项领先。
Amazon Amazon is still up there at Yes.
总之好吧。
Anyways Okay.
那么
So
让我来给你讲讲Adio，这款AI原生的客户关系管理系统。
Well, let me tell you about Adio, the AI native CRM.
Adio能构建、扩展并推动你的公司迈向新高度。
Adio builds, scales, grows your company to the next level.
DC漫画，我觉得那里有...我觉得网飞可以在这方面做些很酷的东西。
The DC comic books, I feel like there's the the like, I feel like Netflix could do something cool here.
我觉得蝙蝠侠、小丑、哈莉·奎茵、超人、神奇女侠、海王、闪电侠...
I feel like Batman, Joker, Harley Quinn, Superman, Wonder Woman, Aquaman, the Flash.
这些都是标志性角色。
Like, these are iconic characters.
这些都是...这些都是万圣节装扮的热门角色。
These are these are cost these are Halloween costume characters.
它们至今仍然广为人知。
They they are still really known.
但DC最近一轮的作品，就是没能突破到漫威系列那样的高度。
And but the last round of of DC, it just didn't break through in the way the the Marvel, series did.
而漫威则取得了现象级的突破。
And Marvel broke through in such a massive way.
它没有《黑暗骑士》和诺兰电影那样的影响力，但他们有没有可能让诺兰重新出山，真正完成一个完整的故事线或类似的东西？
It didn't have the cache of the Dark Knight and the Nolan films, but is there any way that they can get Nolan back in the seat to actually do a full arc or something?
我不知道。
I don't know.
我只是希望...我是在诺兰时代的DC陪伴下长大的，我真的很希望他能继续创作更多那样的作品。
I I would just hope that I I I just grew up with the with the Nolan era of DC, and I would have loved him to go on and do more of that Yeah.
关于超人，你知道的，整个团队，所有人集结在一起。
With Superman, with, you know, the the whole crew, everyone coming together.
相反，他们只是过度依赖CGI特效和慢动作镜头，陷入了扎克·施奈德时代的风格，我觉得很多人都对此感到厌倦了。我很期待他们接下来会有什么新动作。
And instead, they got just really over the top of the CGI and the slow mo and those and the the Zach Snyder era, and I think a lot of people sort of got got they got tired of it, and I'm looking forward to whatever they whatever they wind up doing next.
哦，他们还有《金属启示录》。
Oh, they have Metallocalypse.
那是个很棒的选择。
That's a great one.
我喜欢《机器鸡》和《饮料杯历险记》。
I like Robot Chicken, Aqua Teen Hunger Force.
他们手头资源丰富，继续关注会很有趣。
They got a they got a ton of stuff, so it'd be interesting to keep following it.
总之，等等。
Anyway Wait.
你想去Possum吗？
You wanna go to Possum?
哦，Mike Mirafloor在说什么？
Oh, what's Mike Mirafloor saying?
Mike Mirafloor说我们已经有nana nano banana pro t b c广告了，背后还有不错的付费媒体预算支持。
Mike Mirafloor says we already have nana nano banana pro t b c commercials with decent paid media budgets behind them.
一切进展得太快了。
Everything is moving so so quickly.
好的。
Okay.
所以詹姆斯·哈登在为我的奖品做广告。
So James Harden is in an ad for my prize.
嗯
Mhmm.
我不知道我的奖品是什么
I don't know what my prize is.
他说这是他拍过最好的广告，而且他从未踏足过拍摄现场
Said this is the best commercial he's ever been in, and he never stepped foot on the set.
让我来教你如何破解这则与詹姆斯·哈登合作的'我的奖品'广告中的名人深度伪造技术
Let me show you how to crack the code on celeb deepfakes for this My Prize ad we did with James Harden.
这家伙叫比利·伍德沃德 对
So this is a guy named Billy Woodward Yeah.
他一直在
Who's been
他们确实在电视上投放这则广告，因为它看起来像电视广告，但这可能只是社交媒体上的病毒式营销活动
doing they're actually putting behind this this ad on TV because it looks like a TV commercial, but this also could just be a viral marketing campaign on
其实，'我的奖品'是个高端在线赌场游戏平台
Well, my prize is a premium online casino games.
哇。
Wow.
我的游戏很难
My games It's hard
涉足赌博行业。
to get in on the the gambling trade.
他还没有预测市场合作伙伴。
He doesn't have a prediction market partner yet.
另外，这消息看起来几乎像是假的。
In other news, this almost seems like it could be fake.
你分享这则新闻。
You share this news.
让我告诉你关于Restream。
Let me tell you about Restream.
一次直播，30多个分发平台。
One livestream, 30 plus destinations.
如果你想进行多平台直播，请访问restream.com。
If you want a multistream, go to restream.com.
那么它是什么呢？
So what is it?
真相之外有新闻
There is there there's news out of the truth
我不知道。
I don't know.
我不知道
I don't know
如果这是真的，因为并非
if this is real because not not a
目前有一个非常火爆的帖子，标题是'突发新闻'。
single there there's a very viral post right now that says breaking.
特朗普总统即将宣布一个名为Truth AI的新人工智能平台。
President Trump set to announce a new AI platform called truth AI.
我还没发现任何一家传统媒体机构报道过这件事。
There's not a single not a single legacy media institution has reported on this that I've found.
考虑到这是他们会非常热衷于报道的新闻，是的。
So I would given that this is a story that they'd be very excited to cover Yep.
我会怀疑它的真实性，是的。
I would be wary that it's real Yep.
不过。
Yet.
但是，
But Say.
这并没有阻止J·博尔（J Bol）声称你们认为谷歌赢得了AI竞赛，同时谈论特朗普即将推出新的AI平台Truth AI。
That's not stopping j bol, t a r d, from saying and you guys think Google won the AI race talking about how Trump is set to unveil new AI platform Truth AI.
我在想Truth Social今天是否会因此有所波动
I wonder if Truth Social pops at all today off of
Truth Social。
Truth Social.
不。
No.
它在跌。
It's down.
跌了？
Down?
它在跌。
It's down.
2%。
2%.
嗯，就像他在分散他的注意力。
Well, like he's splitting his yeah.
是啊。
Yeah.
对啊。
Yeah.
专注。
Focus.
缺乏专注力。
Lack of focusing.
是啊。
Yeah.
你应该集中注意力。
You should be focused.
你必须专注于一件事。
You have to lock in one thing.
如果你是社交媒体创业者，我是说，你知道，马克·扎克伯格就因为
If you're a social media entrepreneur I mean, you know, it's Mark Zuckerberg getting dinged for
仅仅涉足部分元宇宙业务而受到批评。
for going just walking some of the We're going to metaverse stuff.
回来。
Back.
你知道吗，也许真正让社交团队受挫的是他们一头扎进AI领域，而不是选择建立合作关系。
You know, may may maybe the true social team's getting dinged for heading over to AI land instead of just doing a partnership.
你知道最疯狂的是什么吗？
You know what you know what the crazy thing is?
我一直觉得这个事实很可笑——现在作为大平台，要证明内部AI基础模型训练的必要性简直难上加难，毕竟反驳理由只能是‘好吧’。
Like, I keep laughing about this fact that, like, it has gotta be so hard to justify an in house AI foundation model training run now if you're a big platform when the rebuttal has to be okay.
所以你的意思是需要做些特别的事情。
So you're saying that you need to do something special.
你需要做些有创意的事情。
You need to do something creative.
你需要和其他人达成些古怪的交易，东拼西凑些东西，但苹果却可以直接和谷歌合作。
You need to do some weird deal with some other people, put something together, but Apple can just work with Google.
是啊。
Yeah.
这对苹果来说已经够了，苹果得到了
It it it's enough for Apple to Apple gets
获得一些不错的认可。
some good approval.
对你来说。
For you.
苹果公司致力于
Apple works to
直接从谷歌的Gemini购买代币，但你
just buy tokens from Gemini from Google, but you
因为是你构建的
because you build it
一年
a year.
你的业务更加特殊
Your your business is more more special
比苹果更
than Apple.
我认为苹果现在处于这样的地位，他们就像在说，我们不需要向谁证明什么，我觉得分析师可以看看苹果然后说，他们在AI领域会有影响力。
I think Apple is in the position where, like, they're like, we don't need to prove to like, I feel like an analyst can look at Apple and say, like, they will have leverage in AI.
是的。
Yes.
至少是的。
At least Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
这是
This is
这个。
the.
而其他企业会觉得，好吧。
Where there's other businesses that feel like, okay.
我们需要一个AI战略。
We need an AI strategy.
仅仅宣布与Alexa的合作是不够的。
It's not enough to just announce a partnership with Alexa.
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
我们需要真正掌握那些权重参数。
We need to, like, actually own the weights.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我们确实应该深入探讨一下苹果公司的人员离职问题，虽然我们之前简单提到过，但《华尔街日报》指出这些离职现象预示着iPhone主导地位面临挑战。
We should we we should actually get into some of the the Apple departures because we talked about this briefly, but but the the Wall Street Journal is saying that Apple departures point to challenges for iPhones' dominance.
我认为现在断言iPhone受到挑战还为时过早。
And I'm I think it's too early to call the the iPhone challenged.
我觉得iPhone的主导地位
I I feel like the iPhone's dominance
是啊。
Yeah.
目前尚未受到挑战。
Has not been challenged yet.
或许挑战即将到来，但要知道，过去十二个月已有数名高层离职，还有数十人跳槽到了竞争对手那里。
Maybe that is coming, but, you know, there have been several top lieutenants who have left in the past twelve months, and, dozens of others have defected to rivals.
这些事实值得我们认真思考和梳理。
So there are some facts that are important to consider and and walk through here.
《华尔街日报》是这样总结的。
So, The Wall Street Journal is summarizing it this way.
苹果公司正面临一波高管离职潮，不仅其领导层处于过渡期，如果竞争对手得逞，其业务也将受到影响。
They Apple is facing a wave of executive departures as the company continues a period of transition not only among its leadership, but if rivals have their way for its businesses as well.
周四，该公司宣布其总法律顾问和政策主管都将于明年退休。
On Thursday, the company announced that its general counsel and head of policy will both retire next year.
周三，一位顶级设计师离职加入了Meta Platforms。
On Wednesday, a top designer left for Meta Platforms.
周一，苹果表示其人工智能战略负责人将退休。
On Monday, Apple said its head of artificial intelligence strategy would retire.
首席运营官已于七月宣布退休，而首席财务官也已转任新职。
Its chief operating officer announced its retirement in July, and the CFO has transitioned into a new role.
所以很多高层，你知道，是主动离职还是正常退休呢？
So lots of head of you know, are the heads rolling, or are these retirements?
这里有很多，像是，你知道的，管理层变动。
There's a lot of, like, you know, sort of management.
感觉苹果公司似乎不是那种会让戏剧性事件找上门来的地方。
It feels like Apple's just, like, not the place to let the drama kind of come to them.
他们好像在说，看吧。
They're like, look.
即使你被挖走了，也许我们
If you even if you got poached, maybe we
不过值得注意的是，苹果公司在那位高管跳槽到Meta后发布了一份声明，试图把这件事包装成双方共同的决定
just Well, it's notable because Apple Apple came out with an announcement after the guy left for Meta and said were basically trying to make it sound like it was it was like, they were positioning it as, like, mutual, like
确实。
Sure.
现在正是合适的时机
This was the right time
是啊。
Yeah.
该继续前进了。
Time to go on.
没错。
Yep.
我会让其他人自己去解读是否...嗯。
And I'll let anyone else kind of, like, read into whether or not Yeah.
这确实是DHH在37 Signals上说的，他指出苹果早就该进行高管层全面洗牌了。
It it was really DHH was getting over 37 signals, which says Apple was overdue for a full executive reset.
只需要把库克也加入
Just need to add Cook to
名单。
the list.
而且作为
And for a
接替人选，福斯特尔才56岁。
replacement, Forestall is only 56.
是时候复出了？
Time for a comeback?
哦。
Oh.
哦，那会非常有趣。
Oh, that would be very interesting.
是啊。
Yeah.
有很多Forestall的粉丝认为他没有得到应有的机会，或者没能正确把握机会。
There's a of Forestall fans out there who think that he didn't get it he didn't get it right or or he didn't get the the opportunity he deserved.
库克真是倒霉透顶。
Cook can't catch a break.
他就像，
He's like,
我依然认为库克做了很多好事。
I still think I still think Cook's done a lot of good good stuff.
我仍然对库克持乐观态度。
I'm I'm still I'm still bullish on Cook.
但我也不知道。
But I don't know.
我们看看。
Let's see.
报道称高管离职凸显了苹果公司正在进行管理层更迭。
It says the executive departures underscore a changing of the guard underway at Apple.
尽管首席执行官蒂姆·库克本人毫无卸任迹象，但各方仍在不断放出各种与之相反的传闻。
Even as executive chief executive officer Tim Cook himself shows no sign of stepping down even though everyone is leaking a variety of rumors to the contrary.
库克及其新晋管理团队面临关键考验：要为AI时代和即将到来的新竞品设备浪潮做好准备——虽然我们尚未真正见到这股浪潮。
Cook and his new lieutenants face a critical test preparing Apple for the AI era and a wave of new competitive devices that results we haven't seen the wave of new competitive devices just yet.
我是说，苹果...如果换个角度讲，就像是苹果击败了Rabbit R1这类产品。
He I mean, Apple, if you there's another way to tell the story, which is like Apple defeated the the rabbit r one.
他们击退了Friend Attack的挑战。
They defeated the friend attack.
他们还打败了...呃...就是那个Humane Pin什么的。
They defeated, you know, like, what was the other one that that that that was the the humane pin.
哦，他们在唱生日快乐歌。
Oh, they're singing happy birthday.
正在唱生日快乐歌。
Singing happy birthday.
今天是某人的生日。
It's someone's birthday.
是交易大厅里的其中一位同事。
It's one of the guys down on the trading floor.
哦，他那边摆了一整个蛋糕。
Oh, he's got a whole cake out there.
太棒了。
That's great.
好人啊。
Good guy.
嗯
Well
真贴心。
Very sweet.
你为什么不跟我们说说你的
Why don't you tell us about your
Turbo Puffer。
Turbo Puffer.
无服务器向量和全
Serverless vector and full
文搜索。
text search.
Turbo Puffer。
Turbo Puffer.
基于对象存储从第一性原理构建。
Built from first principles on object storage.
快速、成本降低10倍且极具扩展性。
Fast, 10 x cheaper, and extremely scalable.
我们
We
我们爱Turbo。
love Turbo.
昨天吉姆·克莱默提到那个'耶'真的很有趣。
That was really funny yesterday having Jim Kramer reference the Yeah.
就是Turbo Puffer。
The Turbo Puffer.
西蒙和Turbo Puffer团队。
Simon and the Turbo Puffer team.
那真是个，像是
That was a, like, a
疯狂的跨界联动。
crazy crossover.
那是个
That was a
非常...那是个深度梗，克莱默。那是个深度梗。
very That was a deep that was a deep cut, Kramer.
是啊。
Yeah.
那确实是个冷门梗。
That was a deep cut, actually.
有个叫雅各布·布林塔马基的用户在帖子里@了我们。
We have some Jacob Brintamaki tagged us in a post here.
SpaceX向投资者透露计划在2026年底进行首次公开募股。
SpaceX tells investors it's aiming for a late twenty twenty six IPO.
《The Information》的凯蒂·鲁夫拿到了独家消息。
Katie Roof over at the information Has the scoop.
拿到了独家。
Has the scoop.
显然，埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX已告知投资者和金融机构，目标是在明年下半年进行IPO。
Apparently, Elon Musk, SpaceX has told investors and financial institutions that it is aiming for an IPO in the second half of next year.
嗯。
Mhmm.
SpaceX正考虑进行一场由投资者和员工持有的股份出售，这将使公司估值达到8000亿美元。
The talk comes as SpaceX considers holding a sale of shares held by investors and employees that would value the company at 800,000,000,000.
涨幅相当可观。
Quite the markup.
相比今年夏天的出售估值翻了一番，这将使其成为最具价值的私营企业，他必须成为最具价值的私营公司。
Double its valuation in a sale this summer, and what would make it the most valuable private company, he's gotta be the most valuable private company.
坦白说，OpenAI的超越可能让他感到不爽。
It probably candidly makes him sick that that OpenAI eclipsed.
公司正在考虑将包括星链在内的整个集团上市，这很合理。
The company is considering a public listing of the entire company including Starlink, which which makes sense.
我认为星链显然是业务价值的重要组成部分，没有它估值不可能接近8000亿，而且它们紧密关联。
I don't I I think like Starlink is is a a huge part of, obviously, the value of the business, and I just don't think it goes out anywhere near 800 without it, and they're very interlinked.
这与几年前马斯克预计SpaceX最终会剥离星链并让其上市的说法有所改变，但随着火箭业务改善，高管们已搁置了星链分拆计划。
That is a change, though, from a few years ago when Musk said he expected SpaceX would eventually spin off Starlink and take it public, but executives have shelved the idea of a Starlink spin off as its rocket business has improved.
据《华尔街日报》报道，此次股份出售的估值是8000亿。
Apparently, the Wall Street Journal reported on the share sale at 800.
总之，其他新闻方面，马克·贝尼奥夫表示他可能会将公司更名为Agent Force。
So anyways, in other news, Mark Benioff is saying that he might rename the company Agent Force.
特雷斯·科恩说就叫Force。
Trace Cohen says just Force.
为什么不直接叫Force呢？
Why not just Force?
哦，Force。
Oh, Force.
嗯，
Well,
不是有个印度力量车队吗？几年前的一级方程式车队？
isn't there a isn't there Force India, the f one team from a couple years ago?
是BYT还是BWT，印度力量？
BYT or BWT, Force India?
那好像是个车队。
That was like a team.
我觉得他们当时很艰难。
I think they struggled.
我得战斗啊，兄弟。
I gotta fight, man.
Force India到底是什么来头？
What what was Force India?
那是不是就是我超爱的Force India？
Was that just I love Force India.
Benioff现在火力全开。
Benioff is is on a tear.
他置顶的推文写着：'大语言模型就是新型磁盘驱动器'。
His his pinned tweet right now, LLMs are the new disk drives.
商品化基础设施，谁家又便宜又好就换谁。
Commodity infrastructure, you hot swap for whoever's cheapest and best.
'模型就是护城河'的幻想刚刚破灭了。
The fantasy that the model is a moat just expired.
人们真的疯狂起来了。
People are really going wild.
他们在这边闹得正欢。
They're going off down here.
你认为他会这么做吗？
Do you think he does it?
有没有预测市场已经上线，用于预测Salesforce的更名？
Is there is there a prediction market yet up for renaming of Salesforce?
我认为Salesforce这个名字非常强大，尽管他们现在做的远不止销售。
I think Salesforce is such a strong name even if they do more than sales at this point.
它已经超越了...就像...这家公司确实已经超越了他们的业务范围。
It's it's transcended the it's it like like, the the company has definitely transcended what they do.
比如，我觉得人们是知道的。
Like, I think people know.
为什么不直接叫销售？
Why not just sales?
我就喜欢单纯的销售。
I like just sales.
干脆就叫销售公司吧。
Just be Sales Inc.
我觉得你做不到。
I don't think you can be.
我觉得那太普通了。
I I think that's too generic.
我不知道。
I don't know.
除非
Not if
你是...你确定吗？
you're you do?
我是说，他还得更新股票代码呢。
I mean, he he would have to update the the ticker too.
还在这儿。
Still here.
更大的那个。
The bigger one.
是啊。
Yeah.
因为销售因为
Because sales because
大家都想，CRM系统已经过时了。
everyone wants to be like, CRMs are dead.
你完全可以即时生成一个CRM系统，没错。
You're gonna just be able to just generate a CRM Yeah.
随时生成。
On the fly.
对。
Yeah.
Bucco Capital说，去他的。
Bucco Capital says, f it.
其他方法都不奏效。
Nothing else is working.
放手去做吧，兄弟。
Go for it, brother.
有时候改个名字就能解决问题。
A name change sometimes will fix you.
就让它顺其自然吧。
Just just let it let it rip.
Ethan Ding 刚刚发表了一些评论。
Ethan Ding was coming in with some commentary.
是啊。
Yeah.
他昨天说，Salesforce的高管们没有一个人告诉他'这不是很多token'这件事，应该让Salesforce的投资者们感到极其担忧。
He said yesterday, it should be extremely extremely alarming to Salesforce investors that no exec at Salesforce is telling him that's not a lot of tokens.
当然，他他们谈到了生成3,200,000,000,000.0个令牌。
Of course, he he they they talked about generating 3,200,000,000,000.0 tokens.
听起来是个大数字。
Sounds like a big number.
伊森说，对于不了解的人，Cursor每六天处理的令牌数量就超过了Salesforce的历史总量。
Ethan says, for anyone who doesn't understand, Cursor processes more tokens than Salesforce all time figure every six days.
每六天。Salesforce拥有2000万用户。
Every six Salesforce has 20,000,000 users.
没错。
Yep.
我是说，Credit Cursor的用户量应该也差不多。
I mean, Credit Cursor has similar amount of users, I think.
确实。
Sure.
假设每个活跃代理用户的平均令牌数为40到60,000，真正活跃用户约为0.2%至0.3%，这是上线三年后的采用率。
Assuming same average token count per active agent force user count is 40 to 60,000 truly active users a k a point two to point 3% adoption three years after launch.
是啊。
Yeah.
我我在想我在想，我觉得，就像，并非所有token都是等价的。
I I wonder I wonder I want like, the like, all tokens are not created equal.
比如，如果你在做这些深度研究报告，就能生成大量大量的token。
Like, you can you can generate so many so many tokens if you're doing these, like, deep research reports.
而且，如果有agent force在运作，基本上相当于对CRM里每个联系人都在跑深度研究报告，就像在
And, like, if you had agent force going around and base effectively running a deep research report on every contact in every CRM under, like, under
每段对话。
Every conversation.
每次你收到
Every time you get
一封新的来自
a new email from a
潜在客户的邮件。
lead.
对吧？
Right?
就像，令牌生成量可能非常高，但产生的价值却微乎其微。
Like, the the the token generation could be incredibly high and also deliver very little value.
另一方面，你可以拥有一个经过精细调校的模型，它就像激光一样精准，更像一把手术刀。
On the flip side, you could have a really fine tuned model that is, you know, laser focused, more of a scalpel.
是啊。
Yeah.
而且你从生成的这些令牌中能获取大量价值。
And you could be getting a lot of value out of those tokens that you are generating.
所以我不太确定。
So I don't I don't really know.
关于应用层的争论，客户关系管理系统(CRM)是否已经过时了？
On the on the app layer debate, are CRMs cooked?
是的。
Yes.
这里有一篇Kalen的帖子。
There's a post here from Kalen.
他说，刚遇到一家公司，他们去年为了不付HubSpot的费用，直接凭感觉编码了一整套CRM系统。
He says, just met a company that vibe coded an entire CRM to avoid paying for HubSpot over the last year.
现在维护成了负担，随着规模扩大，还缺失关键功能和第三方互操作性。
It's now become a burden to maintain and missing key functionality, third party interoperability as they scale.
他们现在正在迁移到HubSpot的应用层。
They're now migrating to HubSpot app layer sign.
我们经历过——我觉得做个v1版本太容易了。
We experienced I think it's so easy to make a a v one.
完全同意。
Totally.
你一天就能做出个v1版本。
You can make a v one in a day.
于是你会想当然地认为，再花几天就能真正构建出更多功能集。但现实是，你一天鼓捣出来的东西，可能每周至少得花10个小时来维护和做渐进式改进。
And so you assume like, okay, you could be spend like another few days really building out like more of a feature set and the reality is like the thing that you generate in one day could take 10, at least for now, hours and hours and hours every week just to, like, maintain it and make, like, incremental improvements.
是啊。
Yeah.
让我给你讲讲Linear。
Let me tell you about Linear.
Linear是专为特定目的打造的工具。
Linear's purpose built tool.
为现代软件开发量身定制的系统。
Meet the system for modern software development.
Linear能简化从路线图到发布的整个开发周期的工作流程。
Linear streamlines work across the entire development cycle from road map to release.
其实我倒没硬编码过CRM系统，但在大学时我用微软Excel搭建过一个CRM。
I actually I didn't vibe code a CRM, but back in college, I built a CRM inside of Microsoft Excel.
所以我就...嗯。
And so I Yeah.
这确实很经典。嗯。
That's like the classic Yeah.
这就是我写了一大堆可视化工具的原因
That's why I wrote a bunch of visual for
一家初创公司
a startup.
是啊
Yeah.
它就像是，你可以从Excel表格
It it was like, You could go from x sheets or Excel
没错
Yep.
过渡到Airtable之类的
To maybe an Airtable Yeah.
稍微更健壮些
Slightly more robust Sure.
然后再迁移到Adio或HubSpot，最终过渡到Salesforce
Then to to Adio or a HubSpot or or or and then and then eventually get over to Salesforce.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
还有，我是说，他们确实。
Also, I mean, they yeah.
关于平台价值和应用层价值的问题。
The question about, like, the value of the platform and the value of the app layer.
我是说，我们之前和Shopify的人讨论过这个。
I mean, we we were talking about this with with Shopify folks.
比如，现在有这么多公司。
Like, there are so many companies.
我在这些公司工作过。
I've worked at these companies.
我曾经营过这些公司，我们当时说，不。
I've run these companies where we said, like, no.
不。
No.
不。
No.
不。
No.
我们的用例很特殊。
Our use case is special.
没人会按照我们想要的方式完全照搬搭建一个电商网站。
No one's gonna build an ecommerce site exactly the way we wanna build it.
所以我们最终定制开发了整个电商技术栈。
And so we wind up building an entire ecommerce stack custom.
然后几年后，Shopify就迎头赶上，然后突然之间。
And then a couple years later, Shopify just catches up, and then boom.
你又回到了Shopify平台。
You're on you're back on Shopify.
这种情况一次又一次地发生。
And and and that just happened time and time again.
我在Soylent亲身经历过。
I I lived it at Soylent.
那是个非常疯狂的时期。
It was a wild wild time.
这真是些疯狂的消息。
This is some wild news.
Logan Paul、Jake Paul和Jeff Wu正在启动一个为期八周的加速器项目。
Logan Paul, Jake Paul, and Jeff Wu are starting an eight week accelerator.
先是2.5万美元的SAFE协议投资，然后是10万美元的定价轮融资，总共出让7%的股权。
It's a 25 k safe followed by a $100,000 price round for a total of 7% equity.
很多人对用定价轮方式融资10万美元感到困惑。
A lot of people are confused about, doing it as a price round for a 100 k.
创始人最终可能会花费大约3万美元，这取决于他们的律师是谁。
A founder could easily end up spending, like, $30, you know, like depending on who their lawyer is.
像是，哦，其实确实。
Like Oh, actually yeah.
这很棘手。
It is tricky.
所以这就像10万美元的投资，然后假设你超级高效，可能只需要10美元。
So it's like a 100 k investment and then you have like let's assume you're like super efficient and it's like $10.
就像是，对。
It's like Yeah.
这有点烦人。
It's kind of annoying.
然后确实。
And then yeah.
这这这这很烦人。
It's it's it's it's annoying.
话虽如此，我认为有很多有趣的业务可以经历这个过程，与杰克和洛根合作会真正受益
That said, I think there's a lot of interesting businesses that could go through this that would really benefit from working with Jake and and Logan and and
杰夫。
Jeff.
对吧？
Right?
所以有趣的是
So interesting that
这是一个
it's a
25k
25 k
安全，然后大约10万美元的价格。
safe and then a $100,000 price around.
比如，为什么不能直接1.25美元换7%的股权，就像在安全协议上设置一个保证他们无论如何都能获得7%的保底条款？
Like, why not just $1.25 for 7%, like, a on a on a safe with a cap that ensures they get 7% no matter what?
比如，这种感觉我很想和他们聊聊。
Like, that feel I would love to talk to them.
我我希望，我们能在某个时候请到Jeff Wu上节目。
I I think, hopefully, we're gonna be able to get Jeff Wu on the show at some point.
我们会问问他关于这个具体条款的看法。
We're gonna ask him about how he is, you know, thinking about that particular term.
我知道这里很多人都在说，哦，12.5万给7%的利率。
I know a lot of people here are saying, like, oh, 7% for a 125 k.
这个估值很低，肯定比YC低得多。
That's low, and that's certainly lower than y c.
YC进来时的估值大概是1000万美元。
Y c, you come in with, like, I think, $10,000,000 valuation.
而这个更像是100万美元的估值。
This is more like a $1,000,000 valuation.
但如果你职业生涯刚起步，还没准备好接受更高估值，这仍然可能是个不错的选择
But, you know, if you're an earlier in your career, you're not ready to go to a different higher valuation, like, this could still be a good
或者你的业务确实需要大量资金，但同时也需要大量关注。
Or you do need a lot of capital for your business, but you do need a lot of attention.
就像，我能想象一些消费品牌以这种方式起步。
Like, I could see some consumer brands getting started this way.
不。
No.
我我我是说，我记得YC曾是我的北极星，指引我初次创业的方向，但第一次申请时我被拒绝了。
I I I mean, I just remember, like like, YC was my North Star for, like, what I wanted to get into with my first business, but, like, I got denied the first time I applied.
我当时想，如果有人给我5000美元换取10%股份，我会接受，因为我想继续做自己的事，继续前进。
And I was like, if you gave me $5,000 for 10% of the business, like, I would take it because I want to work on my thing, and I wanna keep going.
是的，某种程度上这可能显得剥削，但就我最初那些想法而言，确实不配拿12.5万换7%股份，因为那些都是些几乎不可能成功的草台班子。
And, like, yes, at some at some point, it can be predatory, but, like, with some of the first ideas that I was coming up with, like, I definitely didn't deserve a 125 k for 7% because they're, like, slop companies that were, like, very unlikely to wit to to succeed.
所以我不确定。
So I don't know.
这这这其中有值得玩味的地方。
There there there's something interesting.
我确实好奇他们是否会这样定位，好吧。
I do wonder if they will position this as, okay.
你将能够在市场推广方面加速前进。
You're you're you're going to be able to accelerate on the go to market side.
你将在创作者合作方面获得加速。
You're gonna be able to accelerate on the on the creator side, creator partnerships.
这里有很多不同的可能性。
This will be there's a whole bunch of different ways.
可能是这样：你参加这个加速器是因为可以向Logan和Jake请教媒体创作和内容创作，然后你就能启动自己的公司了。
It could be something where you are work you're you're going through this accelerator because you get to ask Logan and Jake about their media creation, their creator work, and then you're you're launching your company Yeah.
更有可能走红，因为这些家伙深谙病毒传播之道。
More likely to go viral because these guys really understand virality.
另一方面，也可能是你进来尝试打造的东西最终更像是他们的孵化项目，我确信他们想推出很多产品。
On the other side, it could be you're coming in and you're taking a crack at building something that might wind up being more like an incubation for them because I'm sure that they want to launch a bunch of products.
这就像是挥棒击球，通过这种方式接近与人才合作的机会。
This is a way to just kind of take swings and and get to get close to working with people.
如果事情顺利的话，他们可能会说，嘿。
And then if something lines up, they could say, hey.
我们其实想做五五分成合作，这就像是Logan和Jake作为联合创始人共同开发下一个项目。
We actually wanna do, a fifty fifty deal, and this is going to be, like, Logan and Jake as cofounders of the next thing that they're working on together.
我们会全力为你推动这件事。
And we're gonna really, really push this for you.
我们将成为你们的营销部门。
We'll be your marketing arm.
对。
Yeah.
所以...我会很期待要看看这些公司的发展方向。
So I I I it'll be interesting to see where these companies go.
Jeff和Jake应该会在年底前的几周，来参加节目。
Jeff and Jake, I think, are coming on the show in the couple weeks before the end of the year.
没错。
So Yes.
我们将能够向他们了解更多这方面的情况。
We will be able to ask them more about that.
在继续之前，让我来介绍一下ProFound。
Before we move on, let me tell you about ProFound.
让你的品牌在ChatGPT等平台被提及。
Get your brand mentioned in chat GPT and more.
触达数百万使用AI发现新产品和品牌的消费者。
Reach millions of consumers who use AI to discover new products and brands.
亚伦在这里发了个不错的帖子。
Aaron has a good post here.
亚伦？
Aaron?
剩余的苹果领导团队。
Remaining remaining Apple leadership team.
谁是特拉维斯·斯科特，蒂姆·库克。
Who is Travis Scott, Tim Cook.
那Mr. Beast呢？
And mister Beast?
Mr. Beast
Mister Beast
Mr. Beast确实说过他要用iPhone拍摄。
Mister Beast did say that he's going to film on iPhones.
我不确定这和Travis Scott有什么关系。
I'm not sure what the Travis Scott connection is.
他和苹果有过合作吗？
Has he done a partnership with Apple and
什么？没有。
what No.
只是
Just
没有。
No.
仍然有很多人在。
There are still plenty of folks.
埃迪·Q还在那里。
Eddie Q is still there.
他们的苹果领导团队依然人才济济。
Their Apple leadership team is still stacked.
你不用担心。
Don't you worry.
你不用担心。
Don't you worry.
这里还有人。
There are still people here.
而且我们还有我们的
And we have our We
有基思男孩在重播里
have Keith boy in in the restream
在
In the
重播等候室里。
restream waiting room.
房间。
Room.
快进去。
Get in there.
装备好了。
Geared up.
实体重播等候室。
Physical restream waiting room.
他们把月亮放在了球体上。
They put the moon on the sphere.
哦。
Oh.
他们把奶酪放在了球体上。
They put cheese on the sphere.
不。
No.
我们是拉斯维加斯之球，要用特别的方式告别2025年最后的超级月亮。
We're the sphere of Vegas says, we're sending off the last supermoon of 2025 with something special.
利用NASA公开的月球数据，我们的团队打造了一个科学精准的月亮，此刻正照亮拉斯维加斯的天际线。
Using NASA's public domain lunar data, our team built a true to science moon that is that's lighting up this Las Vegas skyline.
这看起来真的很酷。
This looks That's really cool.
简直疯狂。
Absolutely insane.
我我我觉得这个球体被低估了。
I I I super the sphere is, like, underrated.
太酷了。
It's so cool.
我 我 什么 我
I I what I
你已不再懂得如何创造美好的事物了。
You don't know how to build beautiful things anymore.
给我个合理的解释。
Make it make sense.
是啊。
Yeah.
我们会的。
We do.
我们会的。
We do.
人们看到这个就会想，你知道，纽约证券交易所，他们是怎么建成的？
People look at people look at this and they think, you know, the New York Stock Exchange, how did they build this?
这是人类建造的吗？
Was this built by humans?
存在很多争议。
There's a lot of debate.
但这个球体确实再次证明，是的，我们能够创造惊人的事物。
But the sphere really really reinstates, yes, we can build amazing things.
是的。
Yeah.
那是人类建造的。
Humans built that.
没错。
Yeah.
人类建造了这个球体。
Humans built the sphere.
关于供暖问题？
About the heating?
就像，那种，那种工程水平，实际上是为了驱动外部的屏幕，因为...
The like, the the level of of, like, engineering that went into actually driving the screens on the outside because so
哦，我
Oh, I
我是说那种规模，每个像素都不像你的笔记本电脑那样。
mean at that scale, like, the each pixel is not like your laptop.
也不像你的手机。
It's not like your phone.
它更像一盏明亮的灯。
It's like a bright light.
就像，每个像素点都这么大，而且它是一个光源。
Like, each pixel is like this big, and it's a light.
是啊。
Yeah.
然后所以那个光源，即使是LED灯，它仍然会产生热量。
Then and so that light, even if it's an LED, it still produces heat.
然后你有，就是有一大堆这样的光源在互相加热。
And then you have so you have a whole bunch of them that are all heating each other up.
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