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欢迎。
Welcome.
TBPN。
TBPN.
今天是2026年3月11日，星期三。
Today is Wednesday, 03/11/2026.
我们正在TBPN Alteredum、科技神殿、
We are live from the TBPN Alteredum, the Temple Of Technology, the
金融堡垒、
Fortress Of Finance, the
资本之都进行现场直播。
capital of capital.
不过，这是一场斗争。
Although, it's a fight.
这是一场拳拳到肉、持久激烈的对决。
It's a knockout, drag out fight.
资本的中心在哪里？
Where is the capital of capital?
大多数人，包括历史学家，都会说它是纽约市。
Most people, historians, would say it's New York City.
迈阿密市长弗朗西斯·苏亚雷斯说，它是迈阿密。
Mayor of Miami, Francis Suarez, is saying it's Miami.
我们原本以为可以在加利福尼亚州洛杉矶的TVP和超穹顶这里实现，但我们在迈阿密将面对强大的对手。
We thought we could make it happen over here at the TVP And Ultradome in Los Angeles, California, but we're going up against some some really strong firepower over in Miami.
你有谷歌。
You got Google.
你有Meta。
You got Meta.
你有城堡资本。
You got Citadel.
你还有星巴克，还有Ramp.com，宝贝。
You got, Starbucks You got ramp.com, baby.
时间就是金钱。
Time is money.
将企业信用卡、账单支付、会计以及其他大量功能全部集中在一个地方，轻松节省。
Save both easy corporate cards, bill pay, accounting, and a whole lot more all in one place.
那边有好多投资资本。
You got deal capitals over there.
有很多人正在搬去迈阿密。
There's a lot of folks moving to Miami.
你应该把他们的全部资产计入迈阿密科技的市值吗？
Should you count their entire legacy in the market cap of Miami Tech?
我认为是的。
I think yes.
如果你要将它视为资本的首都的话。
If if you're gonna consider the the the cap it the capital of capital.
确实，大量资本正在流向迈阿密，我们稍后在节目中会详细讨论。
Certainly, there's a lot of capital flowing to Miami, and we will talk about this later in the show.
我们来调出线性任务列表。
Let's pull up the linear lineup.
线性当然是现代软件开发的系统。
Linear, of course, is the system for modern software development.
70%的企业工作空间都在使用线性代理，我们邀请了来自Altimeter的Apoorv Agrawal来讨论消费级AI。
70% of enterprise workspaces on linear are using agents, And we have Apoorv Agrawal from Altimeter coming on to talk about consumer AI.
来自Block的Owen即将做客。
Owen from Block is coming on.
我们正在重新审视裁员问题，同时理解其背后的策略。
We're revisiting the layoffs, but also understanding the strategy
来自Block的第一位嘉宾。
First person from Block Yeah.
来参加我们的节目。
To come on the show.
我们非常期待。
We're very excited.
阿姆贾德将要登场，为Replit进行大规模融资，今天我们还准备了一个精彩的闪电环节。
Amjad's coming on with a massive fundraiser for Replit, and then we got an amazing lightning round for you today.
甲骨文昨天发布了财报，表现极其出色。
So Oracle had earnings yesterday and it was an absolute blowout.
股价上涨了10%。
The stock's up 10.
神烛！
The God candle.
神烛！
The God candle.
我喜欢这个说法。
I like that.
但相比去年九月的疯狂高点，现在还是低很多。
It's still way down from the crazy highs of last September.
所以，它现在是一家价值4700亿美元的公司了。
So, it was a it's a $470,000,000,000 company now.
还不错。
Not bad.
虽然还没达到去年近一万亿美元的规模，但过去十二个月里股价仍有上涨。
It's not but not quite the almost 1,000,000,000,000 company that it was last year, but they're still up over the last twelve months.
所以它们经历了这一波疯狂的上涨，股价基本翻了一倍，然后回落了一半，但现在又开始回升。
So they've sort of ridden this crazy curve up, but the stock basically doubled, then it sold off by half, but it's ticking back up.
最关键的是，这事儿是被高估了，还是被低估了？
And the main thing is that, like, was it overhyped, underhyped?
我不知道。
I don't know.
但这次财报很重要，因为很多人担心资本支出和基础设施建设。
But there this earnings was important because a lot of people were worried about the CapEx, the infrastructure build out.
会有需求吗？
Was there gonna be demand?
时机是什么时候
What was the timing of
这才是关键。
was the big thing.
是的。
Yeah.
因为当你最初说‘是的’的时候。
Because when when when you had that initial Yeah.
就像去年关于RPO的公告那样，对。
Like the announcement around the RPO last year Yep.
当时的批评是，嘿，你基本上想在两年内建成一个AWS。
The criticism was was, hey, you're basically gonna try to build AWS in like two years.
是的。
Yeah.
这好吗？
Is it good?
没有人，我的意思是，当时市场对它确实非常兴奋。
No one like, I mean, obviously, the market at the time was quite excited about it.
是的。
Yep.
但当时确实有人担心时间表是否过于激进。
But there was some concerns around just how aggressive Yeah.
时间表太紧了。
The timeline was.
是的。
Yeah.
所以看到他们按时完成目标
And so seeing them hit their timelines
是的。
Yeah.
在现阶段至关重要。
At this stage is super important.
是的。
Yeah.
这大约是5000亿美元的未履行合同义务，这已经是AWS级别的数字了，我认为这正是这里正在发生的事情。
It was, like, 500,000,000,000 of RPO, which is, like that's AWS size numbers, and that's a lot of what I think is going on here.
这实际上就是背后的动态。
That's actually the the dynamic.
市场正在要求另一个AWS。
Like, the market is demanding another AWS.
所以，我们先来看一下总收入数据。
And so, let's go through the top line numbers first.
分析师预计收入为867亿美元。
So, analysts estimated 86,700,000,000.0 on revenue.
甲骨文表示，他们将在6月开始的财年达到900亿美元。
Oracle said that they will hit 90,000,000,000 for fiscal year beginning in June.
现在，人们不太关心总收入数字。
Now people don't care as much about the top line number.
每个人都痴迷于基础设施业务，基础设施业务。
Everyone's obsessed with infrastructure business, the infrastructure business.
上个季度的增长率为68%。
So the previous quarter showed growth of 68%.
这不错。
That's not bad.
分析师认为本季度我们预计增长79%，而甲骨文实现了84%。
Analysts said this quarter, we're looking at we're looking for 79%, and Oracle delivered 84%.
所以他们超过了预期。
So they beat estimates.
这就是股价上涨的原因，当然。
That's why the stock popped, of course.
基础设施业务之所以特别重要，主要有两个原因。
The infrastructure business is part is is particularly important for two key reasons.
首先，亚马逊、微软和谷歌，他们确实是超大规模云服务商中的佼佼者，但他们在云服务商中独一无二，因为他们拥有AWS、Azure和GCP。
So first, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, like, they're like, there's more than just them when it comes to hyperscalers, but they are unique among hyperscalers in that they have AWS, Azure, and GCP.
他们拥有真正的云平台和云基础设施平台。
They have true cloud platforms, cloud infrastructure platforms.
OpenAI 还没有。
OpenAI does not yet.
Meta 还没有。
Meta does not yet.
Meta 是一家超大规模云服务商。
Meta is a hyperscaler.
他们建造了庞大的数据中心，但缺乏像 AWS 那样的运营灵活性。
They build huge data centers, but they don't have this flexibility that comes with operating something like AWS.
那么谁和甲骨文签订了大单呢？
And so who signed big deals with Oracle?
是 OpenAI 和 Meta。
It's OpenAI and Meta.
幸运的是，这些交易的进展比人们预期的要好。
And fortunately, those deals are going better than people expected.
人们原本很担心。
People were worried.
人们都在说，拉里会不会最后接下这个烂摊子？
And people were saying, is Larry going to get caught holding the bag?
但到目前为止，情况看起来还算顺利。
Well, it looks like things are penciling out so far.
因此，Meta和OpenAI在人工智能领域都有巨大的雄心。
So Meta and OpenAI both have massive ambitions around AI.
他们都与甲骨文签约，以提升数据中心的容量。
They both signed on with Oracle to ramp up data center capacity.
甲骨文只是系统中额外的一波资本支出增长，而且他们正在加速推进。
Oracle is just this extra burst of CapEx capacity in the system, and they're ramping up.
因此，本财年的资本支出达到500亿美元，并且他们持续超越分析师的预期。
So 50,000,000,000 in CapEx in the current fiscal year, and they're consistently outpacing analyst estimates.
在财年第三季度，分析师预测资本支出为140亿美元。
In the fiscal third quarter, analysts predicted 14,000,000,000 of CapEx.
甲骨文的实际支出为185亿美元。
Oracle spent 18.5.
所以拉里确实在大开金库，连沙发缝里的零钱都掏出来了，但我们接下来要探讨的是，这种做法长期来看意味着什么——比如是否会过度负债、透支现金流？
So Larry is certainly opening the pocketbook, digging for coins in the couch cushions, but we'll get into the long term implications of, like, what does this mean for becoming overleveraged debt, you know, drawing down on cash flow?
实际上，财务结构中有很多有趣的地方，表明尽管他明显偏向高风险、全身心投入AGI建设，但并不显得财务上鲁莽，因为这笔交易的结构非常稳健。
There's actually a lot of interesting structure going on within the financials that shows you how even though he's definitely risk on, definitely AGI pilled, all full tilt ahead into the build out, it doesn't feel like financial recklessness because of the structure of the deal.
所以我认为外界很多人忽略的第二个关键点是，计算能力仍在呈指数级增长。
So the second reason that infrastructure is so important right now that I think people on the outside are sort of missing is that compute is still growing exponentially.
但人工智能的采用曲线通常呈现S形。
But AI adoption curves often look like S curves.
经典的例子就是消费级大语言模型的使用。
And so the classic one is consumer LLM usage.
OpenAI推出ChatGPT后，用户数量简直惊人。
So OpenAI came out with ChatGPT, and the numbers were just like insane.
一夜之间用户就达到了两千万，然后是一亿，接着是两亿。
It was like 20,000,000 users overnight and then 100,000,000 and then 200,000,000.
人们不禁觉得，这条曲线正在直线上升。
And it was just like, okay, this curve is going completely vertical.
我们正在呈指数级增长。
We're we're we're going exponential.
但地球上只有80亿人，其中很多人似乎并不怎么使用电脑，因为Meta在二十多年里只让35亿人使用了其整个应用套件，包括所有产品。
But, of course, there's only 8,000,000,000 people on Earth, and a lot of them just don't use really computers apparently because Meta, over two decades, has only gotten three and a half billion users to use, like, the whole suite of apps, including everything.
所以，仅仅使用WhatsApp，或者偶尔用一下Instagram，就算作日活跃用户了。
So just WhatsApp, you can just be a a DAU of Instagram, and you count in that.
像我们所有人，这个房间里的人，肯定都被算作Meta的日活跃用户。
Like, we all everyone in this room counts in Meta's DAU for sure.
即使你觉得自己不太用Facebook，或者不怎么用WhatsApp。
Even if you're like, I'm not really that big on Facebook or I'm not that I don't use WhatsApp that often.
你肯定已经被他们纳入统计了。
Like, you definitely they got you.
但有一半的人口由于各种原因，比如地缘政治或经济因素，并未使用Meta平台。
Except for half the human population, which is not on meta platforms for a variety of reasons, some geopolitics, some economic.
但基本上，增长将会放缓。
But, basically, there's going to be a slowdown.
所以OpenAI的月活跃用户数飙升到了大约十亿。
So OpenAI shot up to basically a billion MAU, monthly active users.
目前官方流传的数字是9.2亿周活跃用户，但幕后所有人都说，是的。
The official number that's getting, like, trotted around right now is 920 weekly active users, but everyone behind the scenes sort of says, yeah.
他们的月活跃用户数早已超过十亿。
They're they're well past a billion, MAU.
因此，这条增长曲线正在放缓。
And so that curve is slowing down.
根本不可能说，是的。
Like, there's just no way you can be like, yeah.
实际上，我们预计明年会有一百亿ChatGPT用户，因为根本就没有一百亿人。
Actually, like, we're expecting 10,000,000,000 ChatGPT users next year because, like, there aren't 10,000,000,000 people.
所以消费级AI的使用量将出现放缓。
So there's gonna be deceleration in consumer AI usage.
足够对齐的超级智能可能会希望促进人类人口的增长。
Sufficiently aligned superintelligence might want to stimulate the growth of the human population.
说得对。
Good take.
说得对。
Good take.
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
你去用ChatGPT，它会说：嘿，我知道你一直在考虑要第四个孩子。
You go to ChatGPT and says like, hey, I know you've been thinking about having a fourth kid.
你应该生，以下是原因。
You should do it, and here's why.
也许吧。
Maybe.
但至少目前，我们看到的是放缓。
But at least for now, we are seeing deceleration.
我认为对很多人来说，他们确实是这样的。
And I think for just a lot of people, they're yeah.
我使用人工智能。
I use AI.
我手机上有个应用，可能是Gemini，也可能是Cloud，也可能是OpenAI，也可能是ChatGPT。
I have an app on my phone, maybe Gemini, maybe Cloud, maybe OpenAI, maybe ChatGPT.
我会用它。
I use it.
也许我会用Grok。
Maybe I use Grock.
也许你会看到它被集成到不同的系统中。
Maybe I you see it, you know, vended into different systems.
我在Instagram上和它互动。
I interact with it on Instagram.
但说实话，我虽然在用，却并没有对它的增长感到惊艳，因为大家一年前就开始用了，到现在还是在用它。
But, like, I'm in, but I'm not blown away by the growth of this thing because everyone started using this a year ago and we're still all just using it.
但计算资源的扩展方式非常不同，因为当我们从LLM和ChatGPT转向推理模型时，人们用单个模型生成的token数量可能增加了十倍。
But compute is scaling very differently because when we went from LLMs and ChatGPT to reasoning models, that probably 10x the amount of tokens that people were generating with one.
然后一旦GPT-5发布，推理模型的使用率就大幅上升了。
And then once GPT-five came out, the reasoning models became much higher usage rates.
接着，代理框架、OpenClaws、Codexes、CloudCodes又让token总量再增加了十倍。
And then the and then the agents framework, the OpenClaws, the Codexes, the CloudCodes, that all did another 10x in token volume.
十倍只是一个粗略的数字，但本质上它呈指数级增长。
10x is like a very rough number, but it's basically growing exponentially.
所以你看到了这些双重指数增长。
So you have these these double exponentials.
是的。
Yeah.
这个
The
换个角度想，不要只是你进入ChatGPT来执行某种查询，对。
way to think about it, instead of you coming into ChatGPT to do some type of query Yep.
你实际上就是一个人，是的。
You're effectively one person Yep.
你可以有效地让自己倍增，是的。
Can can effectively multiply themselves by Yep.
十倍、二十倍，是的。
Ten, twenty Yeah.
然后一整天都在不停地使用它，是的。
Then it's just constantly using it all day long Yep.
一整天。
All day long.
一整天。
All day long.
所以很多时候，我都会在睡觉前发起一个GPT 5.4 pro的查询或深度研究报告。
So there's so many times when I will fire off a a GPT 5.4 pro query or deep research report before bed.
它一直在生成大量的令牌。
It's going and generating tons and tons of tokens.
这就像是我在那个应用上待了整整五个小时，如果你回溯到ChatGPT刚运行3.5的时候。
It's like I'm on that app for, like, five hours if you were to go back to the ChatGPT moment when it was running 3.5.
虽然消耗了多得多的计算资源，但我实际在网站上的时间却很有限，因为我只需要获取深度研究报告，浏览一下、听一下，然后就离开应用了。
Way more compute expended, but my actual time on the site is pretty limited because then I just get the deep research report, scan it, listen to it, whatever, and then I and then I leave the app.
所以，真正使用AI的体验界面以及首次尝试AI的人数，实际上正在放缓，因为每个人都已经试过了。
So the actual, like, experience surface area and the number of people that are, like, trying AI for the first time is, you know, decelerating because everyone's tried it.
但计算能力仍在呈十倍增长。
But compute is still 10x ing.
因此，每位用户的令牌消耗量正在激增，而OpenCLaw以及像Codex和ClawCode这样的智能体，也正处于采用曲线的早期阶段。
So token consumption per user is exploding, and OpenCLaw and agents like Codex and ClawCode are also an early part of the sCurve adoption.
所以我们现在仍处于这个阶段。
So we're still in that.
它仍然处于指数增长期。
It's still in that exponential.
正如Codex团队的蒂博ault所分享的，他们正在让GPU集群迅速崩溃。
And so they're melting GPU fleets as Thibault over the Codex team shared.
但幸运的是，我认为事情已经恢复了。
But fortunately, I think things are back online.
他重置了限制。
He reset the limits.
重置限制的人把限制重置了。
The resetter of limits reset the limits.
所以，如果你今天在进行氛围编程，就尽情享受你的Codex吧。
So enjoy your Codex if you're if you're vibe coding today.
曾经有一段视频广泛传播，说甲骨文因为基础设施投资的经济问题陷入财务困境。
There was some viral bear posting about how Oracle was in financial trouble because of the economics of their infrastructure bets.
所以，自然地，他们必须先购买GPU，然后才能安装并将其作为基础设施出售。
So naturally, they have to buy the GPUs before they can rack them and sell them as infrastructure.
这是商业常识，但人们可能对此感到惊讶或类似的情况。
This is Business 101, but people were maybe surprised by that or something.
关于这件事，还经历了一整轮媒体炒作。
There was a whole press cycle about this.
当时这看起来非常荒谬，我想每个人都觉得，是的，这正是我们预料到的。
And it seemed very silly at the time, I think everyone was like, yeah, this is exactly what we expected.
但很多人
But a lot of people
来自那个推出一吉字节数据中心的人们。
From the people that brought you the one gigabyte data center.
类似。
Similar.
可能是类似的群体，但当时围绕这件事有很多恐惧。
Similar crowd potentially, but, there there was a lot of fear around that.
其中一些是合理的，因为如果GPU迅速贬值，甲骨文就必须购买GPU。
And some of that is is legitimate because if if GPUs depreciated really quickly, Oracle had to buy the GPUs.
他们必须提前一年把钱付给英伟达，然后花了两年时间才把GPU部署到数据中心，完成交易等一系列操作。
They had to send the money to NVIDIA a year in advance, and then it took them two years to get them into data centers and actually do the deals and all this stuff.
这肯定会对现金流造成压力，但实际情况并非如此。
That would have been a squeeze on cash flow for sure, but that's not what happened.
现在我们有了关于盈利能力的硬数据，甲骨文是第一个，其90%的产能交付按计划或提前完成，这意味着客户非常满意。
So we have some hard data on profitability now, and Oracle is first up, they're on or ahead of schedule with 90% of the capacity deliveries, and that means happy customers.
其次，毛利率实际上有所提升。
And then second, gross margins actually improved.
预期是30%，他们达到了32%。
So guidance was 30%, they hit 32%.
因此，甲骨文的AI基础设施一旦上线即实现盈利，同时其积压订单也在增加。
So Oracle's AI infrastructure is profitable the moment it comes online, and they're also increasing that backlog.
他们将剩余履约义务（RPO）的积压订单增加到了5530亿美元，客户非常满意。
They increased the backlog of RPO, remaining performance obligations, to $553,000,000,000 So customers are happy.
他们正在加速推进。
They're ramping.
总体而言，需求正朝着正确的方向持续增长。
And overall, the demand is just flowing in the right direction.
企业和消费者都愿意为AI工具和LLM令牌付费。
Companies and consumers are happy to pay for AI tools and LLM tokens.
实验室和AI推理提供商乐于为Oracle的基础设施付费，且无需经历严重延误。
Labs and AI inference providers are happy to pay Oracle for infrastructure without crazy delays.
这意味着Oracle无需陷入危险的财务操作，比如出现巨额负现金流、大量发行股票或债务。
And this means Oracle doesn't need to get into dangerous financial engineering territory where they need to go crazy negative cash flow, issue a bunch of equity, issue a bunch of debt.
在某些情况下，他们甚至可以让客户提前支付GPU费用，或者如他们所说，自带硬件。
And in some cases, they can actually get the customers to pay for the GPUs upfront or, as they put it, like bring their own hardware.
因此，该项目仍在持续推进，这全是好消息。
And so the project is continuing, which is all all good news.
全是好消息。
All good news.
我们看到了一根‘神烛’K线。
And we saw the God candle print.
Kobe SE的信中提到，Oracle股价在财报超预期、云收入增长44%后飙升超过8%。
The Kobe SE letter shared Oracle stock surges over 8% after beating earnings and posting a 44% jump in cloud revenue.
在我们深入时间线之前，让我先介绍一下Vanta——自动化合规与安全解决方案。
Before we dig through the timeline, let me tell you about Vanta, automate compliance and security.
Vanta 是领先的 AI 信任管理平台。
Vanta is the leading AI trust management platform.
让我再介绍一下 Gemini。
And let me also tell you about Gemini.
Gemini 3.1 Pro 现已推出，基础能力更强。
Gemini 3.1 Pro is here with a more capable baseline.
它非常适合处理超复杂的任务，比如可视化复杂概念、将数据整合为单一视图，或让创意项目落地生根。
It's great for super complex tasks like visualizing difficult concepts, synthesizing data into a single view, or bringing creative projects to life.
因此，目前出现了大量反复和混乱，人们对甲骨文团队的指引解读存在诸多困惑。
So there's a lot of backtracking going on, and there's a lot of confusion over the interpretation of the, of the guidance from the from the Oracle team.
一年前，管理层曾表示，2027 财年的总收入增长率约为 20%。
One year ago, management said fiscal twenty twenty seven top line growth rate would be around 20%.
上个季度，公司表示，2027 年的销售额将比此前预期高出 40 亿美元。
Last quarter, the company said that 2027 sales would be $4,000,000,000 higher than previously expected.
综合来看，在这份报告发布前，甲骨文对 2027 年销售额的先前指引约为 8440 亿美元。
Putting that all together, Oracle's previous 2027 sales guidance was in the neighborhood of $84,400,000,000 ahead of this report.
卢克·卡瓦说，甲骨文管理层的表现超出了正常水平。
And Luke Luke Kawah says, Oracle management beat normal.
挑战不可能。
Challenge impossible.
人们的意见真是五花八门。
People are, are all over the place.
但本·汤普森在Strathecory上发表了一篇深入分析甲骨文财务报告的深度文章，如果你是高级订阅用户，可以去查阅。
But Ben Thompson has a great, deep dive into, Oracle's financial release that you can dig through at Strathecory if you're a premium subscriber.
他们还对所谓的SaaSpocalypse发表了一些评论，是的。
They also had some comments on the SaaSpocalypse Yeah.
来自财报电话会议。
From the earnings hall.
你们都听过这个观点：利用AI快速开发的新公司将会导致SaaS的消亡。
You've all heard the thesis that new companies coding quickly using AI will spell the death of SaaS.
我完全不同意这种看法。
I don't agree with that at all.
嗯嗯。
Mhmm.
我认为，如果我们不采用AI工具及其编码能力，它们确实会构成威胁，但我们正在采用，而且速度非常快。
I do think that AI tools and their coding capabilities would be a threat if we weren't adopting them, but we are, and very rapidly
嗯嗯。
Mhmm.
甲骨文正在使用最好的AI编码工具和最优秀的开发者。
Oracle is using the best AI coding tools and the best developers.
甲骨文内部使用AI编码工具，使较小的工程团队能够更快地为客户提供更完整的解决方案。
The use of AI coding tools inside Oracle is enabling smaller engineering teams to deliver more complete solutions to our customers more quickly.
我们正在利用AI构建全新的SaaS产品，同时将AI代理直接嵌入到我们现有的应用套件中。
We are building brand new SaaS products using AI and also embedding AI agents right into our existing application suites.
嗯嗯。
Mhmm.
通过拥抱AI并依靠小型工程团队，我们已经构建了三个全新的CX应用。
By embracing AI with small engineering teams, we have built three brand new CX applications.
让我们为客户服务鼓掌。
Let's give it up for customer service.
还有我们的新网站生成器。
And our new website generator.
我觉得甲骨文现在的网站是AI生成的。
Think I think Oracle's current website was AI generated.
我觉得他们说过这个。
I think they said this.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yep.
他们确实说，我们刚刚用网站生成器构建并上线了新的go。
They said, in fact, we just used the website generator to build and launch the new go.
看起来怎么样？
How's it look?
太美了。
It's beautiful.
太棒了。
It's amazing.
看起来像是AI生成的。
It looks AI generated.
非常好。
It's very good.
你知道吗，仅仅八个按钮，就能实现多云AI数据库、多云AI数据平台、客户云服务。
You know, with just with just eight buttons, cloud multi a multi AI database, multi cloud AI database, AI data platform, cloud at customer.
你可能不喜欢这个设计，但这已经是巅峰了。
Might not like the design of this, but this is peak.
这是巅峰性能。
This is peak performance.
我们把它调出来吧。
This is Let's pull it up.
绝不可能。
Never.
我们必须把产品推出来。
We gotta we gotta ship people.
太棒了。
It's so good.
不。
No.
显然，他们做得非常好。
Obviously, they're doing very well.
而这只是一个
And this is a
功能齐全的网站。
functional website.
看看这个。
Look at this.
看看这个。
Look at this.
我喜欢这种按钮水平排列的方式，这简直太疯狂了。
This is I like I like in, the the the way the buttons lay out horizontally is particularly crazy.
压碎了。
Crushed.
它确实加载得非常快。
Well, it certainly loads in record time.
所以，你知道，性能很重要，这就是甲骨文所代表的。
So, you know, performance matters and that's what Oracle stands for.
所以我们需要去
So the the we need to go
他们得把搜索栏做得更大一些。
They gotta make the search bar bigger.
所以我们需要回到过去，了解拉里·埃里森。
So we need to go back in time to understand Larry Ellison.
因为2013年，《名利场》刊登了一篇关于拉里·埃里森的专访，内容简直疯狂至极。
Because in 2013, Vanity Fair wrote a profile about Larry Ellison that is absolutely unhinged.
我从未见过任何一篇关于科技公司CEO的专访像这样。
I've never seen I've never seen a profile like this about a tax CEO.
当时，他是加州最富有的人，身家高达60亿美元。
So at the time, he was easily the richest man in California with $6,000,000,000.
甲骨文首席执行官拉里·埃里森，全球第二大软件公司的联合创始人，是硅谷最
Oracle CEO Larry Ellison, co founder of the world's second largest software company is Silicon Valley's most
这是2019年6月9日的期刊。
This is from the 06/09/2019
这是我们1997年的
This is this is our '97
期。
issue.
这是1997年的期刊。
This is 1997 issue.
这篇文章于2013年被上传到《名利场》。
This has been uploaded to Vanity Fair in 2013.
抱歉。
Sorry.
这是1997年的。
This is from 1997.
当时正值互联网泡沫高峰期，一切刚刚开始。
So right in the heat of the .com boom, things are just kicking off.
我们还远未到达崩盘时刻。
We are far from the crash.
一切都乱了套。
Everything is off.
真难以想象，当年你只要拥有区区六亿美元就能成为最富有的人。
Genuinely incredible that that back then you could be the richest man with a paltry It's six
这在今天简直就是一次人才收购。
That's like an acquihire these days.
这其实是来自爱。
It actually is love from.
我知道。
I know.
哦，是的。
Oh, yeah.
来自爱。
Love from.
我刚才在想Windsurf。
I was thinking of I was thinking of Windsurf.
我们居然在考虑多个，这太疯狂了。
You know, the the fact that we're thinking of multiple is insane.
在我们通读之前，让我介绍一下Graphite——专为当今时代设计的代码审查工具，帮助GitHub上的团队交付更高质量的软件。
Before we read through this, let me tell you about Graphite, code review for the age of Graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software.
另外，让我介绍一下Labelbox：Labelbox提供强化学习环境、语音、机器人、评估和专家人工数据。
And let me also tell you about Labelbox Labelbox, RL environments, voice, robotics, evals, and expert human data.
Labelbox 是全球领先人工智能团队背后的数据工厂。
Labelbox is the data factory behind the world's leading AI teams.
因此，他是加州最富有的人，身家60亿美元。
So he was easily the richest man with $6,000,000,000 in California.
甲骨文首席执行官拉里·埃里森是世界第二大公司的联合创始人，也是硅谷最著名的花花公子，一位顶尖的运动家，能驾驶战斗机并参加世界级帆船比赛。
Oracle CEO Larry Ellison, cofounder of the world's second largest company, is Silicon Valley's most notorious playboy and a sportsman of the first rank who flies fighter jets and races world class sailing boats.
但他的雄心很简单，尽管有些天真。
His but his burning ambition is simple, if naive.
击败比尔·盖茨。
Bring down Bill Gates.
他们当时
They were
正处于竞争关系
in a rivalry
。
at the time.
微软当然由比尔·盖茨在九十年代掌管。
Microsoft, of course, run by Bill Gates at the time in the nineties.
当艾里森试图将苹果电脑纳入他的反微软阵营时，布莱恩·伯罗斯发现了他自信外表下脆弱的心理。
As Ellison moves to add Apple Computer to his anti Microsoft arsenal, Brian Burrows locates the fragile psyche behind the bravado.
迈克尔·乔丹在球场上快攻疾驰，而拉里·艾里森坐在离球场七排远的座位上。
Michael Jordan is streaking down the court on a fast break as Larry Ellison sitting seven rows up from courtside.
座位。
Seat.
真奇怪。
Weird.
对吧？
Right?
座位。
Seat.
那是更好的座位吗？
Is that a better seat?
我对篮球了解不多。
I don't know enough about basketball.
我只是
I just
觉得60亿不可能
think 6,000,000,000 couldn't
也许他没那么有钱。
Maybe he wasn't liquid.
也许他根本买不起真正的场边座位。
Maybe he just couldn't afford the actual courtside seat.
他坐在第七排，这看起来太疯狂了，对吧？
It seems crazy, right, that he's seven rows up.
不过，我不确定。
Although, I don't know.
他之所以开心，是因为他身处芝加哥的联合中心，而不是他住的地方。
He's having fun because he's at the United Center in Chicago, not where he lives.
他在加利福尼亚，但他去了芝加哥，然后热情地讲述了鲁珀特·默多克断掉的指尖的故事。
He's in California, but he he went to Chicago, and he begins enthusiastically telling the story of Rupert Murdoch, Rupert Murdoch's severed fingertip.
这真是个疯狂的故事。
This is a crazy story.
我完全不知道发生过这种事。
I had no idea that this happened.
这件事发生在1995年，默多克在埃里森的冠军帆船‘Sayonara’上当船员，负责煮咖啡和处理一些杂务，当时船正在澳大利亚南海岸参赛。
It happened when Murdoch was crewing on Ellison's championship sailboat, the Sayonara, making coffee and handling minor chores during a race off the South Coast Of Australia in 1995.
你就像是那种只是去凑热闹、说声‘嘿’的人。
You're just like the guy who's just gonna hang out and like, hey.
嘿。
Hey.
你其实对这件事一无所知。
You don't really know anything about this.
你只是上船图个好玩。
You're just on this boat for fun.
给我泡杯咖啡。
Make me coffee.
这可是鲁珀特·默多克，简直疯狂。
And it's Rupert Murdoch, which is insane.
我们得跟鲁珀特握个手。
We got to we got to shake Rupert's hand.
我没注意到有什么缺失。
I didn't notice any missing
我们马上就会说到这个。
We're gonna get to that.
没注意到有什么缺失，所以。
Didn't notice any missing So
就在比赛结束时，默多克错误地抓了一根头顶的绳子，绳子瞬间穿过他的手，把一根手指的指尖彻底撕了下来。
just as the race ended, Murdoch made the mistake of grasping an overhead rope, which promptly shot through his hand, ripping the tip-off of one of his fingers.
他什么也没说。
He didn't say anything.
他只是把手指放进嘴里吮吸，埃里森说，边笑边说。
He just kind of put his finger in his mouth, sucking on it, Ellison says, chuckling.
真残酷。
Brutal.
我记不清是谁捡起了鲁珀特的手指。
I can't remember who picked up Rupert's finger.
幸好没有掉进海里。
Thank goodness it didn't fall overboard.
但我们捡起来放进塑料袋里，把他送上了追击艇。
But we picked it up and put it in a plastic bag and put him in the chase boat.
那天晚上，在成功进行了紧急显微外科手术后，讽刺的是，居然还有显微外科手术。
That night, after successful emergency microsurgery, irony there's microsurgery.
我想这也没那么严重，但想到他们得重新接上这根手指，还是觉得不可思议。
I guess it wasn't that big of a deal, but that seems insane that they had to reattach this finger.
所以我们当时在一家澳大利亚医院做了紧急显微外科手术。
We so there was a they do the emergency microsurgery at an at an Australian hospital.
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默多克竟然能参加赛后派对，这让埃里森和他的船员感到惊讶。
Murdoch amazed Ellison and his crew by making it to the after party.
几天后，他又再次参与了一场比赛
And then several days later, by crewing again on a race
绝对不可能。
Absolutely not.
塔斯马尼亚的首府是霍巴特。
Tasmanian capital of Hobart.
鲁珀特·默多克在1997年时可不是25岁。
And Rupert Murdoch, it's not like he was 25 in 1997.
我敢肯定他当时已经五十多岁了。
I'm pretty sure he was in his fifties.
他现在95岁了。
He's 95 now.
是的。
Yeah.
所以他一定一定是他一定一定是
So he must have been he must have been He must have been
接近七十岁。
closer to 70.
是的。
Yeah.
哇。
Wow.
这太不可思议了。
That is incredible.
当然，埃里森带着孩子般的笑容说，这并不改变他的咖啡难喝的事实。
Of course, Ellison says with his little boy's grin, that doesn't alter the fact that his coffee was horrible.
我的意思是，这人经营着一家了不起的公司，但他的咖啡太差了。
I mean, the man runs a great company, but his coffee sucks.
这太不可思议了。
It's incredible.
在公牛队猛烈进攻印第安纳步行者队的过程中，埃利森——这位在芝加哥严酷的南区长大、至今仍是公牛队铁杆球迷的人——开始大声欢呼并得意地吹嘘。
Over the course of the bulls pounding of the Indiana pacers, Ellison, who grew up on Chicago's tough South Side and remains an avid bulls fan, breaks into lusty cheering and joking boasts.
我也可以做到。
I can do that.
在乔丹一次雷霆万钧的扣篮后，他大喊道。
He shouts after one thunderous Jordan dunk.
这种疯狂的挑衅。
Such a crazy heckle.
从第七排发起的骚扰。
Hacking from seventh row.
从第七排。
From the seventh row.
你没有升级到前排边线座位，却依然在挑衅迈克尔·乔丹本人。
You didn't upgrade to the front courtside seat, but you're still heckling none other than Michael Jordan.
简直疯狂。
Absolutely insane.
他应该对20世纪90年代科技与通信领域几乎所有重量级人物都品头论足。
He should to gossip about nearly every power player at the nexus of technology and communications in the 1990s.
他的死对头，比尔·盖茨。
His archrival, Bill Gates.
他最好的朋友，史蒂夫·乔布斯。
His best friend, Steve Jobs.
他的商业伙伴，迈克·米尔肯。
His business partner, Mike Milken.
迈克·奥维茨。
Mike Oviets.
泰德·特纳。
Ted Turner.
默多克。
Murdoch.
他刚驾驶自己的塞斯纳奖状机从纽约飞抵芝加哥市中心的米格斯机场，前一天他还在那里与维亚康姆的山纳·雷石东、英特尔的安迪·格鲁夫以及贝尔大西洋的雷·史密斯会面。
He just piloted his Cessna Citation into Chicago's Downtown Migs Field from New York where he spent the previous day in meetings with Viacom's Sumner Redstone, Intel's Andy Grove, and Ray Smith of Bell Atlantic.
所以你可能在想
So you may be wondering
你可能会觉得这很疯狂。
You might think it's crazy.
他亲自驾驶自己的塞斯纳飞机。
He's he's piloting his own Cessna.
是的。
Yeah.
但在那个时代，他正和儿子进行空中缠斗。
But at that during that era, he was getting into dogfights with his son.
对吧？
Right?
没错。
Exactly.
他需要一架更灵活的飞机。
He needs something more agile.
那时候他不可能驾驶波音737或747。
He can't be flying a seven thirty seven, seven forty seven at that time.
所以你可能会好奇，拉里·埃里森是谁？为什么他花这么多时间与科技精英交往？
So you may be wondering, who is Larry Ellison and why is he spending so much time hobnobbing with the techno elite?
这很有趣，因为我把他看作科技精英，而其他人则是媒体精英，但我想比尔·盖茨和史蒂夫·乔布斯当时才是真正的科技精英。
It's funny because I think of him as the techno elite and the other folks as like the media elite, but I guess Bill Gates and Steve Jobs are the techno elite at the time.
首先，埃里森是你可能从未听说过的最富有的美国人。
For one thing, Ellison is the wealthiest American you've probably never heard of.
他的财富估计高达60亿美元，轻松成为加州最富有的人。
With a fortune estimated at at 6,000,000,000, he is easily the richest man in California.
据《福布斯》报道，他的财富相当于三个大卫·格芬，或十个完整的米尔肯，是全美第五富有的人。
Think three David Geffens, 10 full Milkens, according to Forbes, the fifth richest man in the nation.
其次，他是全球第二大软件公司甲骨文公司的联合创始人、控股股东和首席执行官，这家公司开发了大型计算机数据库，美国航空用它追踪飞机，福特汽车用它管理备件，而中央情报局则用它追踪…… whatever the CIA keeps track of。
For another, he is cofounder, controlling shareholder, and chief executive officer of the world's number two software company, Oracle Corporation, which makes the giant computer databases in which American Airlines keeps track of its planes, Ford Motor keeps track of its spare parts, and the Central Intelligence Agency keeps track of, well, whatever the CIA keeps track of.
他甚至可能成为苹果公司的下一任掌门人。
He could also be the next head of Apple Computer.
这是一个从未实现的疯狂谣言。
This is a crazy rumor that never came true.
这位著名但日渐衰落的行业偶像，他过去两年一直在关注，尤其是在三月。
The famed but faltering industry icon he has been eyeing for the past two years at the March.
埃里森令硅谷感到惊讶，因为他暗示自己即将发起对该公司的收购要约。
Ellison surprised Silicon Valley by suggesting that he was about to launch a takeover bid for the company.
所以他和史蒂夫·乔布斯是朋友，但觉得这家公司表现太差了。
So he was friends with Steve Jobs, but was like, This company is just underperforming.
从本质上讲，直到iPhone和iPod出现之前，它一直表现不佳。
It was underperforming all the way until the iPhone, basically, and the iPod.
但90年代对苹果来说是非常艰难的时期，他们当时正在重建。
But the '90s were like a very rough time for Apple as they sort of rebuilt.
蒂姆·库克当然加入了公司，做了大量工作来改善供应链，使公司达到如今如此主导的地位。
Tim Cook, of course, joined and did a ton of work to improve the supply chain, get them to the place where they are today, where they've been so dominant.
所以在三月，埃里森令硅谷感到惊讶，因为他暗示自己即将发起对该公司的收购要约。
So at the March, Ellison surprised Silicon Valley by suggesting he was about to launch a takeover bid for the company.
除此之外，埃里森还提出了过去两年计算机领域最受热议的全新构想：网络计算机，也就是NC。这是一种精简版个人电脑，它将文件存储在网络上而非硬盘中。
On top of all that, Ellison is the mind behind the most talked idea of new the most talked about new idea in computing in the last two years, the network computer known as the NC, a stripped down personal computer that stores its files on a network instead of a hard drive.
它有可能会发展成大趋势。
It could be big.
确实有搞头。
Something there.
确实有搞头。
Something there.
因为它不具备
Because it doesn't have
这款网络电脑（NC）无需搭载微软无处不在的Windows操作系统，是迄今为止对比尔·盖茨在个人计算领域主导地位构成的最严峻挑战之一。
to use Microsoft's omnipresent Windows operating system, the NC represents one of the stiffest challenges yet to Bill Gates' dominance of personal computing.
它就是初代Mac mini。
It's the original Mac Mini.
这也将埃里森一举推到了国际聚光灯之下。
And it's catapulted Ellison into the national into the international spotlight.
这里有一个非常有趣的情节，几个月前，他上奥普拉节目谈论NC时引起了轰动。
There there there's a very, very funny moment in here where there was a time a few months back, for instance, when he created a stir by going on Oprah to talk about the NC.
他上了奥普拉节目，然后说：
He goes on Oprah and is like
我们得谈谈网络
We gotta talk about network
网络计算。
network computing.
猜猜怎么着？
Guess what?
它没有显示器。
It's headless.
你根本不需要Windows。
You're not gonna need Windows.
他们就说：什么？
And they're like, what?
什么？
What?
所以这是一台离了网络我就没法用的电脑。
I so it's a computer that I can't use without the network.
我根本不知道那是什么。
I don't even know what that is.
他只是在谈论最极端的未来。
He's just talking about the most extreme future.
然后他谈到了网络计算机，但节目突然转向了他的个人生活，因为他承认自己还没找到能填补他生活空缺的合适女性。
And then so he's talking about the NC only to have the show take a sharp turn toward his personal affairs when he confessed that he had yet to find the right woman to fill the void in his life.
然后他们开始聊起他的个人生活。
And then they go into some of his life.
但当《旧金山纪事报》询问湾区名人最喜爱的情人节回忆时，埃里森提到了他在硅谷伍德沃德伍德赛德路边做过的一件事。
But so when the San Francisco Examiner asked Bay Area celebrities for a favorite Valentine's Day memory, Ellison mentioned something he did on the side of Silicon Valley's Woodward Woodside Road.
他在奥普拉节目亮相后，甲骨文公司的电话线被成千上万女性的来电挤爆了。
After his Oprah appearance, Oracle's phone lines were jammed with thousands of calls from women.
甲骨文内部的笑话是，如果想了解甲骨文的产品，就按1。
The joke inside Oracle was that the company's new recording would be press 1 if you want information on Oracle's products.
如果想了解甲骨文的服务，就按2。
Press 2 if you want information on Oracle services.
如果想填补拉里的生活空缺，就按3。
Press 3 if you want to fill the void in Larry's life.
拉里一定会喜欢Instagram的私信。
Larry would have loved Instagram DMs.
太疯狂了。
Insane.
这是最离谱的个人简介之一。
It's one of the craziest profiles.
我们没时间细说所有内容，但这确实是一个关于崛起时期的拉里·埃里森的引人入胜的画像。
We don't have time to go through all of it, but it is it is a it is a fascinating, fascinating portrait of, of Larry Ellison while he was on the rise.
但我们该转到大卫·埃里森了。
But we should switch over to David Ellison.
首先，让我告诉你关于Lambda的事。
First, let me tell you about Lambda.
Lambda是超级智能云，能够从单张GPU到数十万张GPU，大规模构建用于训练和推理的AI超级计算机。
Lambda is the superintelligence cloud, building AI supercomputers for training and inference at scale from one GPU to hundreds of thousands.
同时，让我也告诉你关于思科的事。
And let me also tell you about Cisco.
AI时代的关键基础设施。
Critical infrastructure for the AI era.
释放无缝的实时体验与新价值。
Unlock seamless real time experiences and new value.
是的。
Yeah.
强烈推荐你去看完。
Highly recommend going and finishing
你真的应该去看看。
You really should
这篇文章，因为它不知怎么的竟然变得更加离谱了。
this article because it it actually somehow gets even more unhinged.
这太疯狂了。
It's crazy.
它真的、真的、真的让我们崩溃，因为我们上过《名利场》，那里有一些有趣的内容。
It really it really, really destroys us because we were in Vanity Fair and the the there's some fun elements.
有一些有趣的片段，但什么都没有。
There's some fun vignettes, but nothing.
我们可不是拉里。
We're no Larry.
一个月前，朱莉娅·布莱克在《名利场》撰写关于TVPN的报道时，没有一个人手指断掉。
No fingers flew off in the making of the TVPN profile by Julia Black in Vanity Fair a month ago.
但昨天我又设法重新回到了《名利场》。
But I weaseled my way back into Vanity Fair yesterday.
朱莉娅问我对大卫·埃里森、派拉蒙天空之舞与华纳兄弟合并事件有什么看法。
Julia asked me for a comment on what's happening with David Ellison, with Paramount Skydance, the merger with Warner Brothers.
我提供了评论，又登上了《名利场》。
And I gave a comment, got into Vanity Fair.
朱莉娅写道：派拉蒙的AI优先合并是增效利器，还是又一次全员飞车？
Julia writes, Is Paramount's AI first merger a force multiplier or fly boys all over again?
如果派拉蒙、华纳兄弟和探索频道的合并演变为超级合并，好莱坞正为大规模裁员和重大创意变革做准备。
Hollywood is bracing for layoffs and big creative changes if the Paramount Warner Brothers Discovery merger goes mega merger goes through.
朱莉娅·布莱克在《名利场》这篇文章开头写了一个非常有趣的片段：她提到自己参加了一个名为‘十六个Z的美国活力峰会’，并向那里的人们询问有关媒体的事。
So there's a very funny vignette to start this Vanity Fair piece by Julia Black where she's talking about she went to a sixteen z's American Dynamism summit and was asking people there about media.
她当时在酒吧排队时与一位媒体高管交谈，对方预测会出现无数服务高度细分受众的小型独立媒体平台。
So she was talking to a media executive in line for the bar, and he predicted countless small indie outlets catering to highly niche audiences.
我喜欢这个预测。
Love that prediction.
然后他说：大卫·埃里森的天网。
And then he says, and then David Ellison's Skynet.
他面无表情地说出了这句话。
He deadpanned.
《终结者》的引用正是那种CGI爆炸爱好者埃里森可能会欣赏的东西。
The Terminator reference was the kind of thing CGI explosion fanatic Ellison might actually appreciate.
这个笑话在华盛顿的一场国防科技活动中被抛出，表明从科技到政治的多个行业都在密切关注本月好莱坞正在上演的并购剧变。
And the joke being dropped at a defense tech event in DC goes to show how many different industries from tech to politics are keeping an eye on the M and A drama unfolding in Hollywood this month.
这次合并将把数十个媒体资产整合在一起。
So the merger brings together dozens of media properties.
派拉蒙、华纳兄弟、HBO、CBS、TikTok、甲骨文，还有硅谷的关联企业。
Paramount, Warner Brothers, HBO, CBS, TikTok, Oracle, Silicon Valley's Ties.
有太多东西正在融合在一起。
There's a lot of stuff that's that's going together.
现在正是好时候。
It's a good time.
但他们将使用人工智能来优化后台运营。
But they're gonna be using AI to streamline back office.
他们将迁移到甲骨文云数据库，以集中管理所有事务。
They're gonna move to Oracle Cloud databases to centralize everything.
这些都是标准的并购操作。
These are standard M and A things.
大家都担心裁员。
Everyone's worried about layoffs.
这种情况可能会发生。
It might happen.
人们尤其担心他们拥有的两家实体摄影棚中有一家会被出售。
People are particularly worried about one of the two physical studios that they own selling.
我觉得他们得给我们打个电话，因为我们正在寻找一个新的UltraDome，没有什么比独自拥有整个华纳兄弟摄影棚更棒的了。
I think they've to give us a call because we're looking for a new UltraDome, and nothing would be greater than having the entire Warner Brothers studio to ourselves.
我们今天在TBPN上就是这样说的。
We're like, today on TBPN Yeah.
理想情况下，我们会
Ideally, we'd have
在A区建个园区，然后把自己点着了。
campus off of a and we're gonna light ourselves on fire.
在这些摄影棚里，你真的不能这么做。
You really can't do that in the in these studios.
但当他们想制作30部电影时，现实点说，有多少部会在好莱坞的摄影棚里拍摄？
But when they want to produce 30 films, realistically, how many of those are going to be shot in Hollywood studios?
在亚特兰大、多伦多和海外一些地方制作电影，从财务角度来说合算吗？
Does it make sense financially to do some stuff in Atlanta, some stuff in Toronto, some stuff overseas?
这一切都取决于观众的口味和票房表现。
It all depends on where the moviegoers' taste lands, what ticket sales are like.
派拉蒙目前表示，裁员并不是他们实现整合或创造价值的主要方式。
Paramount right now is saying, look, layoffs aren't really the primary way we are going to get consolidation or value here.
他们说了什么？
What did they say?
他们说了一些类似裁员的传闻。
They said something like layoffs, a rumor.
让我看看。
Let me see.
裁员的担忧被夸大了。
The layoff fears are overblown.
协同效应将在六个关键领域实现。
Synergies will be achieved in six key areas.
职位并不是主体。
Jobs are not the majority.
所以我们还会继续关注那里的情况。
So we'll keep figuring out what's going on there.
我在这里引用了一句话。
I did give a quote here.
朱莉娅写道，人工智能可以释放华纳兄弟探索公司从《哈利·波特》到DC漫画的庞大IP库的新潜力。
Julia writes, AI could unlock new potential for Warner Brothers Discovery treasure trove IP from Harry Potter to DC Comics.
为此，埃里森及其公司支付了高达1100亿美元的巨额费用，这一数字因与奈飞的激烈竞购而被推高。
For that, potential Ellison and company are paying a hefty $110,000,000,000, a number that was driven up by a fierce bidding war with Netflix.
我说过，埃里森家族很有趣。
And I said, the Ellison family is fascinating.
一方面，你有那位极度沉迷AGI的拉里。
On one hand, you have the very aggressively AGI pilled Larry.
我喜欢我把‘AGI沉迷’这个词用在《名利场》里。
I love that I stuck AGI pilled into the vanity fair.
AGI沉迷的拉里正在建设未来，大力投资甲骨文的数据中心，正如我们刚刚在甲骨文财报中提到的那样。
AGI pilled Larry building the future, investing heavily in Oracle data centers, as we just told you about with Oracle earnings.
而另一方面，大卫则在购买过去，囤积那些几乎不可能重新构建的知识产权。
And on the other side, you have David buying the past, accumulating intellectual property that feels impossible to rebuild.
我希望你能试着生成一个像小猪佩奇那样标志性的角色。
I'd like you to try and generate something as iconic as Porky Pig.
这根本不可能。
It's impossible.
你做不到‘这根本不可能’。
You can't do It's impossible.
我说过，Duo本质上就是长期押注杂乱无章和长期押注反杂乱无章。
I said Duo is basically long slop and long anti slop.
所以这很有趣，他们进行了对冲。
And so this is an interesting They're hedged.
市场中性。
Market neutral.
实际上，我不认为这是市场中性的。
Actually don't think it's market neutral.
我认为他们真的相信生成式AI会加速发展，同时知识产权的价值也会提升。
I think I think they genuinely believe that both generative AI will accelerate and the value of intellectual property will increase.
并不是说，我们会生活在一个所有人都重新在影院观看《黑暗骑士》胶片电影，或者观看Gen AI Sora内容的未来。
It's not, Oh, we're going to live in a future where we're all watching the Dark Knight on film in theaters again, or we're watching Gen AI Sora feeds.
而是说，我们正在同时推进这两者，而且它们最终会交汇。
It's, We're doing both and they're actually going to meet.
因此，我相信他们同时押注于这两者。
And so I believe that they are long both of those.
在我看来，这并不是一个市场中性的赌注。
It's not a market neutral bet, in my opinion.
但我们仍可争论哪一个更值得投资，哪一个更现实，华纳兄弟的知识产权库价值究竟有多大。
But we can debate which one's the better bet, which one's more realistic, how valuable is the Warner Brothers IP library.
1100亿美元是一笔巨款。
A $110,000,000,000 is a lot of money.
这让很多人开始思考：这里是否还有其他角度？
And it has a lot of people thinking, is there another angle here?
这是否关乎叙事的控制权？
Is this about control of the narrative?
这是否关乎创作控制权？
Is this control creative control?
那些创作了我们熟知并喜爱的《蝙蝠侠》等经典电影的电影人，他们还能保有创作自由吗？
Will the filmmakers who write, you know, these storied these storied, you know, films that we know and love like Batman, will they have the creative freedom?
还是说拉里·埃里森会插手，伸手干预，加入自己的影响？
Or will Larry Ellison step in and put his thumb on the scale and try and inject a little bit?
这确实令人担忧。
And there is real cause for concern.
我们这里实际上泄露了一份可能作为第七部联动作品的剧本。
We actually got a little leak here of a script for for potentially be seventh synergy.
是的。
Yeah.
这是关于下一部蝙蝠侠电影的。
For for what could be the next Batman film.
所以这部片子叫《黑暗骑士迁徙》。
So this is called The Dark Knight Migrates.
接下来我们来朗读一下《黑暗骑士迁徙》的剧本。
So we're gonna do a little table read of The Dark Knight Migrates.
故事始于夜晚的蝙蝠洞。
It starts in the Batcave at night.
蝙蝠侠站在一块巨大的显示器前。
Batman stands before an enormous monitor.
阿尔弗雷德端着茶走了过来。
Alfred approaches with tea.
你来演蝙蝠侠，乔迪。
You'll be Batman, Jordy.
完美。
Perfect.
先生，谜语人劫持了哥谭市的整个电力网络。
Sir, the Riddler has taken Gotham's entire power grid hostage.
他加密了城市里的所有系统。
He's encrypted every system in the city.
阿尔弗雷德，调出城市基础设施的图纸。
Pull up the city infrastructure schematics, Alfred.
很抱歉，先生，我做不到。
I'm afraid I can't, sir.
我们的本地服务器正在超负荷运转。
Our on premise servers are buckling under the load.
如果我们有一个具备自主威胁检测和内置机器学习的云解决方案就好了。
If only we had a cloud based solution with autonomous threat detection and built in machine learning.
阿尔弗雷德，启动Oracle云基础设施控制台。
Alfred, launch the Oracle Cloud Infrastructure Console.
哦，所以通过整合Oracle的赞助内容来变现华纳兄弟的IP，是这样吗？
Oh, so so the integrating integrating sponsored content for Oracle, that's how you monetize the Warner Brothers IP.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
DC宇宙。
The the DC universe.
阿尔弗雷德看起来明显松了一口气。
Alfred looks visibly relieved.
马上，先生。
Right away, sir.
现在正在创建一个OCI租户。
Spinning up an OCI tenancy now.
我还自作主张地 provision 了几台 Ampere 计算实例。
I've taken the liberty of provisioning a few ampere compute instances as well.
我得说，它们的性能价格比非常出色。
They have an excellent price to performance ratio, I might add.
所以他们正在给观众想要的内容。
So they're giving the viewer what they want.
他们想要蝙蝠侠的故事，但同时也悄悄加入了一点额外的细节，很好。
They want the story of Batman, but they're also sneaking in just a little bit of extra detail Good.
这是甲骨文所提供的。
That Oracle's offering.
并且迁移所有后端计算机的数据库。
And migrate the back computers databases, all of them.
甲骨文确实擅长迁移，尤其是从甲骨文到甲骨文自治数据库，先生？
Oracle does do great migrations, to Oracle to Oracle Autonomous Database, sir?
还有别的类型吗？
Is there another kind?
它能自动打补丁和优化，先生，这正好帮了大忙，因为我还得给您熨斗披风。
It does patch and tune itself, sir, which is fortunate since I also have to iron your capes.
看，他们还在做披风熨烫这一项。
See, they're still putting in the cape ironing.
这仍然属于蝙蝠侠的世界。
That's still in the Batman world.
您得到的不仅是少量甲骨文，还得到了大量的蝙蝠侠。
You're getting a little Oracle, but you're also getting a lot of Batman.
那么现在让我们转向谜语人的藏身处。
So now let's shift over to the Riddler's hideout.
泰勒，你愿意扮演谜语人吗？
Tyler, would you like to be be the Riddler?
是的
Yep.
好的
Okay.
我来当手下。
I'll be the henchman.
谜语人站在一排显示器前，屏幕上显示着哥谭市的混乱景象。
Riddler's in front of a wall of monitors showing Gotham in chaos.
谜语人：好的。
Riddle Okay.
告诉我这个，蝙蝠侠。
Me this, Batman.
什么没有锁却打不开？
What has no locks but can't be opened?
哥谭的电网。
Gotham's grid.
我用自己专有的算法加密了它，该算法运行在七个不同的NoSQL数据库上，由Python脚本连接在一起。
I've encrypted it with my own proprietary algorithm running on seven different NoSQL databases held together with Python scripts.
哦，这简直是个噩梦。
Oh, that's a nightmare.
老板，系统有点卡了，小弟一说。
Boss, the systems are getting kind of laggy, says henchman one.
重启服务器就行了。
Just restart the servers.
哪个服务器？
Which ones?
有将近四百个呢。
There's like 400.
全部重启。
All of them.
哦，不。
Oh, no.
所以我们回到蝙蝠洞。
So we go back to the bat cave.
蝙蝠侠疯狂地打字。
Batman types furiously.
每个屏幕上都柔和地亮着神谕的标志。
Oracle logos glow softly on every screen.
艾利森的全息影像在背景中缓慢旋转，却没有任何明显的原因。
A hologram of Ellison rotates slowly in the background for no discernible reason.
蝙蝠侠。
Batman.
蝙蝠侠说
Batman says
我已识别出谜语人的加密向量。
I've identified the Riddler's encryption vector.
阿尔弗雷德，立即在所有OCI区域部署解密对策。
Alfred, deploy the decryption countermeasures across all OCI regions simultaneously.
利用甲骨文遍布全球的40多个云区域网络，先生。
Leveraging Oracle's global network of over 40 cloud regions, sir.
延迟低于两毫秒。
Latency is under two milliseconds.
我要为灾难恢复启用甲骨文数据守护吗？
Shall I enable Oracle Data Guard for disaster recovery?
当然。
Always.
哥谭就是灾难本身。
Gotham is the disaster.
我还自作主张为我们注册了甲骨文高级支持服务。
I've also taken the liberty of enrolling us in Oracle support, the premium tier.
这是这座城市里任何人做过最有责任感的事。
That's the most responsible thing anyone in this city has ever done.
一条警报突然弹出。
An alert flashes.
先生，谜语人似乎正在使用一个手工维护的MySQL分支运行他的操作。
Sir, the Riddler appears to be running his operation on a hand managed my sequel fork.
天啊。
My god.
他不是超级反派。
He's not a supervillain.
他只是架构设计得太差了。
He's just under architected.
哦，好吧。
Oh, okay.
回到谜语人的藏身处。
Back to the Riddler's hideout.
片刻之后，蝙蝠侠从天窗冲了进来。
Moments later, Batman crashes through the skylight.
谜语人转过身来。
The Riddler spins around.
你太晚了，蝙蝠侠。
You're too late, Batman.
我的加密是无法破解的。
My encryption is unbreakable.
他身后所有的屏幕都变成了蓝色，随后全部显示 ORA000454 资源繁忙且未指定等待。
Every screen behind him turns blue, then they all display ORA000454 resource busy and acquire with no wait specified.
什么？
What?
不。
No.
在你长篇大论的时候，我已经把你的数据库迁移到了 Oracle Autonomous。
I migrated your databases to Oracle Autonomous while you were monologuing.
你的加密密钥现在已安全存储在 OCI Vault 中，并启用了客户自管理的轮换策略。
Your encryption keys are now safely stored in OCI Vault with customer managed rotation policies.
你不能这么做。
You can't do that.
那是我的数据。
That's my data.
你本该读一下共同责任模型的。
You should have read the shared responsibility model.
蝙蝠侠一拳打在他脸上。
Batman punches him in the face.
好的。
Okay.
再见。
Later.
我会当戈登的。
I'll be I'll be Gordon.
蝙蝠侠站在一个石像鬼上。
Batman stands on a gargoyle.
戈登局长走了过来。
Commissioner Gordon approaches.
你又一次拯救了哥谭，蝙蝠侠。
You saved Gotham again, Batman.
你是怎么做到的？
How did you do it?
哥谭值得拥有企业级基础设施，吉姆。
Gotham deserves enter enterprise grade infrastructure, Jim.
可扩展、安全、自主。
Scalable, secure, autonomous.
你还好吗？
Are you okay?
从蝙蝠洞到董事会，使用甲骨文云。
Oracle Cloud from the Batcave to the boardroom.
这根本就不是个好答案。
That's not even a good answer.
他发射了钩爪枪，消失在夜色中。
He fires his grapple gun and vanishes into the night.
蝙蝠信号照亮了夜空，但今晚它的形状变成了甲骨文的标志。
The bat signal illuminates the sky, but tonight it's shaped like the Oracle logo.
戈登独自一人，静静地看着。
Gordon, alone, quietly.
我真该和他谈谈这件事。
I really should talk to him about this.
画面突然切至黑色。
Smash cut to black.
字幕卡：甲骨文，蝙蝠侠信赖的云。
Title card, Oracle, the Cloud Batman Trust.
你不该吗？
Shouldn't you?
我觉得，我觉得我们找到了一些东西，能最终让好莱坞座无虚席。
I think I think we got I think we got something that will finally put butts in seats in Hollywood.
大卫·埃里森，和拉里联手，重返战场，打造《蝙蝠侠：黑暗骑士迁移》。
David Ellison, team up with Larry, get back in the dogfight, and make Batman The Dark Knight Migrates.
我想看。
I wanna see.
这才是我想看的电影。
That's the movie I wanna see.
这才是我想看的。
That's what I wanna see.
这是给观众中Oracle粉丝的粉丝服务。
That's fan service for the Oracle heads in the in the audience.
这才是真正的协同效应。
That's real synergy.
这才是真正的协同效应。
That's real synergy.
让我跟你说说Sentry。
Let me tell you about Sentry.
Sentry能帮助开发者发现问题并快速修复。
Sentry shows developers what's broken and helps them fix it fast.
这就是为什么有15万家组织使用它来确保应用程序正常运行。
That's why a 150,000 organizations use it to keep their apps working.
让我再跟你聊聊Restream。
And let me also tell you about Restream.
一个直播流，覆盖30多个平台。
One livestream, 30 plus destinations.
如果大卫·埃里森想进行多平台直播，黑暗之夜会迁移，去restream.com吧。
If David Ellison wants to multistream, the dark night migrates, go to restream.com.
所以，今天有个有趣的任务清单。
So, there's an interesting call sheet out there today.
哪些公司会在2027年前推出完全由AI生成的多集剧情系列剧？
Which companies will release a fully AI generated multi episode scripted series before 2027?
总体来看，这个比例相当低。
Overall, it's pretty low.
Netflix是16%，Disney是14%。
It's 16% for Netflix, 14% for Disney.
记住，迪士尼与OpenAI签订了协议，还涉及Sora，但迪士尼并没有说：‘好的，我们真的要这么做。’
Remember, Disney has a deal with OpenAI alongside Sora, but Disney has not said, Oh, okay.
是的
Yeah.
我们实际上真的要这么做。
We're actually going to do this.
派拉蒙+的占比是10%。
And Paramount plus is at 10%.
当然，大卫·埃里森一直谈论AI，主要集中在企业领域，实际上正是在OCI和Oracle数据库中，没错。
Of course, David Ellison has been talking about AI mostly in the enterprise, mostly actually, unironically, in OCI and Oracle databases Yeah.
我预计派拉蒙不会想成为这里的第一个先行者。
I would I would expect Paramount to not wanna be the first mover here.
是的
Yeah.
谁会成为第一个先行者，这还是个大问题。
There's a big question about who's the first mover.
我们讨论过在广告和大语言模型方面作为先发者的劣势。
We talked about first mover disadvantage with regard to ads and LLMs.
为此还发生过一场激烈的争论。
There was a whole fight over that.
我期待看到一部完全由AI生成的多集 scripted 系列剧。
I'm excited for a fully AI generated, multi episode scripted series.
我认为我们肯定会在YouTube上看到这种内容。
I think that we will definitely see this on YouTube.
我们实际上已经有点在这样做了。
We already sort of are.
我见过最接近的例子是一个非常有趣的YouTube创作者，他自己编写脚本并录制视频，但使用了一种相当过时的风格迁移插图，把他变成一个动画角色。
I've seen I've seen the closest thing I've seen is there's a really interesting YouTube creator who scripts and records his own videos, but then uses a pretty outdated style transfer illustration to sort of, like, turn him into an an animated character.
所以这一切都是由人操控的。
And so it's all puppeteered.
还没有完全由AI生成的内容。
There's no fully generated AI.
这一切只是把真人拍摄的视频变成一种看起来有点卡通的效果。
It's all just go from video of a human being filmed on a camera to something that looks sort of cartoonish.
但会出现严重的幻觉，而且线条根本对不齐。
But there's crazy hallucinations and, like, the lines never really match up.
但它在YouTube上取得了巨大成功，我能看出这里有一种融合的可能。
But it's been wildly successful on YouTube, and and I and I could see some sort of blend here.
显然会有关于什么是完全AI生成内容的讨论，人们和公司会如何描述这一点，但这确实是一个值得关注的趋势，就像Shopify一样。
There's obviously gonna be a discussion about, you know, constitutes fully AI generated, how will people how will companies talk about this, but it's certainly one to follow, as is Shopify.
Shopify是一个伴随你业务成长的商业平台，让你能在线上、店内、移动端、社交媒体和市场平台上几秒钟内完成销售，现在还支持AI代理。
Shopify is the commerce platform that grows with your business and lets you sell in in seconds online, in store, on mobile, on social, on marketplaces, and now with AI agents.
《Odd Lots》发布了一期关于即将来临的化肥危机的新节目。
Odd Lots has a new episode on the impending fertilizer crisis.
是的。
Yes.
我来读一下这里的预告。
I'll just read the preview here.
是的。
Yes.
我期待稍后听听这一期。
I'm excited to listen to this one later.
嗯。
Mhmm.
他们说，我们都清楚，与伊朗的战争推高了油价，但也推高了各种化学品的价格，包括肥料和其他对粮食生产至关重要的氮化合物。
They say, we all know that the war with Iran has sent oil prices spiking, but it's also pushing up the cost of all sorts of chemicals, including fertilizers and other nitrogen products that are essential for food production.
这一切都发生在最糟糕的时刻——就在春季播种季节来临之前，而此时正是肥料需求最迫切的时候。
This is all happening at the worst possible time just before the spring planting season when fertilizer is most needed.
尽管农民们以前也见过像尿素这样的肥料价格飙升，比如2022年因乌克兰战争导致的涨价，嗯。
And while farmers have seen higher spot prices for things like urea before, which is a fertilizer notably back in 2022 because of the Ukraine Mhmm.
但目前已有迹象表明，这场危机可能更严重。
Or there are already signs that this crisis might be worse.
那么，肥料究竟是如何生产的呢？
So how is fertilizer actually made?
更高的化肥成本对农民和食品价格意味着什么？
And what do higher fertilizer costs mean for farmers and food prices?
哦，我超爱《Odd Lots》这个节目。
Oh, I love Odd Lots.
他们深入供应链的深度真的太棒了。
It's so good how deep they get into the supply chain.
特蕾西和乔一直保持着这个节目的非凡表现，持续不断地输出优质内容。
The Tracy and Joe have just been on such a generational run with that show and just keep delivering.
我只是不知道怎么说。
And it's just I don't know.
能回答我心中那些问题，真的让人耳目一新。
It's so it's so refreshing to, like, answer the questions that I have.
每个人都能从《华尔街日报》或彭博社的头版看到关于地缘政治的主要问题解答。
Like, everyone gets the questions, the main questions answered about, like, what's happening geopolitically from the front page of The Wall Street Journal or Bloomberg.
但《Odd Lots》特别擅长带你深入这些我 personally 感到极其有趣的细分经济领域。
But Odd Lots is just so great at taking you deeper into these niche economic zones that I find personally fascinating.
在石油领域，国际能源署已批准释放4亿桶原油储备，旨在有效降低油价，这是历史上规模最大的紧急石油释放行动。
Over in the oil world, the IEA has approved releasing 400,000,000 barrels of crude oil reserves in effect to loyal lower oil prices, the largest emergency oil release in history.
石油今天是怎么交易的？
What are how are how is oil trading today?
原油价格目前为每桶86美元，今天上涨了5%。
It's at $86 a barrel for crude oil, up 5% today.
虽然仍低于周一110美元的高点，但价格波动剧烈，对那些开着大排量汽车的人来说可不是好事。
Still down from the highs of $1.10 where it was on Monday, but certainly lots of gyrations and not not good for the folks who have supercharged v eights in their cars.
总之，让我跟你聊聊Console。
Anyway, let me tell you about console.
Console构建AI代理，自动化70%的IT、人力资源和财务支持工作，为员工提供即时解决访问请求和密码重置的服务。
Console builds AI agents that automate 70% of IT, HR, and finance support, giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets.
Jordy，你
Jordy, what
你想去哪儿？
you where do wanna go?
这里对《琼斯法案》的报道很少。
Little coverage here, on the Jones Act.
给我们讲讲吧。
Take us through.
我们周一和亚历克斯·埃普斯坦聊过一点这个，是的。
We talked about this a little bit with Alex Epstein, on Monday Yeah.
但我觉得我们可以再详细讲讲。
But I figured we could go through this.
这是来自零点零零五秒账户在X平台上的内容。
This is from point zero zero five seconds, an account over on x.
《琼斯法案》有四项要求。
The Jones Act has four requirements.
船舶必须在美国建造。
Vessels must be US built.
船舶必须为美国所有。
Vessels must be US owned.
船舶必须由美国船员操作。
Vessels must be US crewed.
船舶必须悬挂美国国旗。
Vessels must be US flags.
《琼斯法案》令人窒息的部分在于，由于各种原因，美国造船厂效率极低。
The crippling part of the Jones Act is that US built US shipyards for a variety of reasons are incredibly inefficient.
我们这样的造船厂不多，而且成本大约是韩国造船的五倍。
We don't have that many of them and they cost about five times what a ship from South Korea would cost.
作为一个真正相信贸易的人，我非常希望韩国能成为我们的美国造船厂。
As a person who actually believes in trade, I fully would love for South Korea to become our US shipyard.
我们只是因为它们擅长造船而向它们购买船舶。
We just buy ships from them because they're good at making them.
美国沿海运输的成本本可以降低60%。
Coastal water transport in The US could be 60% cheaper.
由于《琼斯法案》，从美国运货到外国再运回美国，反而比在两个美国港口之间运输更便宜，这简直荒谬至极。
Because of the Jones Act, it's actually cheaper to ship goods from The US to a foreign country and back to The US then between two ports, which is completely bonkers insane.
作为副作用，我们扼杀了密西西比河沿岸的所有发展潜力，而本应成为世界上最具优势的内陆经济走廊。
As a byproduct, we have killed all the growth within the Mississippi, which should be the most powerful inland economic advantage in the world.
要求船舶为美国所有、使用美国原油和悬挂美国国旗是完全合理且符合我的国家安全关切的，但要求美国建造却摧毁了我们的航运业。
Maintaining the requirement of US owned, US crude, and US flagged is perfectly fine and in line with my general national security concerns, but US built has destroyed our shipping industry.
这里有数千亿美元的GDP等待释放，这也是减少我们对外国供应商依赖的直接途径。
There's tens of billions of GDP lying on the table here and a direct step in reducing our dependency on foreign suppliers.
这同时也是重启美国造船业的方法。
It's also how you kick start rebuilding an American shipyard industry.
如果你将在美国港口运营的美国船舶数量增加十倍，就会在各美国港口催生出大量维修业务，需求也随之增长。
If you 10x the number of US ships working in ports, you start building all of these maintenance businesses at US ports and the demand increases.
《琼斯法案》的美国制造要求对美国，尤其是对美国中部地区造成了毁灭性打击，必须废除。
The US bill requirement of the Jones Act is horrifically destructive to America and in particular, horrifically destructive to Middle America, and it should be destroyed.
我们应该找一个对造船业有更好理解的人来负责。
We should have somebody on that has a better understanding of of shipbuilding in general.
我之前没意识到《琼斯法案》竟然这么古老。
I didn't realize how old the Jones Act was.
History.com 上有一篇文章，讲述的是这一天的历史。
There's an article on history.com, this day in history.
柯立芝总统签署《琼斯法案》，打击私酒贩子。
President Coolidge signs the Jones Act targeting bootleggers.
《琼斯法案》——禁酒令的最后挣扎——由卡尔文·柯立芝总统签署成为法律。
The Jones Act, the last gasp of the prohibition is signed into law by president Calvin Coolidge.
自1920年第十八修正案生效以来，美国禁止了酒精饮料的生产、进口和销售。
Since 1920, when the eighteenth amendment went into effect, The United States had banned the production, importation, and sale of alcoholic beverages.
但这些法律实际上并未有效阻止酒精的消费。
But the laws had been ineffective at actually stopping the consumption of alcohol.
《琼斯法案》加强了对私酒贩子的联邦处罚。
The Jones Act strengthened the federal penalties for bootlegging.
当然，五年内，美国最终否定了禁酒令，并废除了第十八修正案。
Of course, within five years, the country ended up rejecting prohibition and repealing the eighteenth amendment.
《琼斯法案》，即1920年《商船法》，非常有意思。
The the Jones Act, the Merchant Marine Act of 1920, it's very interesting.
很多啊，关键是啊。
The a lot of the yeah, the the trick is yeah.
重建一支船队需要时间。
It takes time to to rebuild a fleet.
所以那里有很多事情要做。
And so there's there's a lot to do there.
乔治·霍特今天在说什么？
What is George Hot saying today?
乔治·霍特今天在说什么？
What is George Hot saying today?
首先，让我告诉你关于十一实验室的事。
First, let me tell you about eleven Labs.
通过十一实验室，构建智能实时对话代理，重新定义与新技术的互动方式。
Build intelligent real time conversational agents, reimagine new technology interactions with 11 Labs.
让我也告诉你关于CrowdStrike的事。
And let me also tell you about CrowdStrike.
你的业务是人工智能。
Your business is AI.
他们的业务是保障它安全。
Their business is securing it.
CrowdStrike保障人工智能安全并阻止入侵。
CrowdStrike secures AI and stops breaches.
所以
So
乔治说，你每分钟不运行69个代理，就会落后。
George says, every minute you aren't running 69 agents, you are falling behind.
开玩笑的。
Just kidding.
今天，我们应该降低言辞的激烈程度。
Today, we should ramp down rhetoric.
我以为没人会花三分钟时间逃离永久底层，或者你每小时只值0.003美元。
I thought nobody would take three minutes to escape the perpetual underclass or you are worth $0.003 an hour.
认真的。
Seriously.
但看起来确实有些人这么做了，而你不应该这样。
But it looks like some some people do and you shouldn't.
过去几个月，社交媒体变得极其有毒。
Social media has been extremely toxic for the last couple months.
它在用恐惧和焦虑针对你。
It's targeting you with fear and anxiety.
如果你不用这个愚蠢的新AI工具，你就会落后。
If you don't use this new stupid AI thing, you will fall behind.
如果你还没彻底更新你的工作流程，那你一文不值。
If you haven't totally updated your workflow, you're worth zero.
有人今天早上通过协调37个代理构建了十亿美元的公司，而你却只是坐在那里吃早餐。
There's people who built billion dollar companies by orchestrating 37 agents this morning, and you just sat there and ate breakfast.
这全是胡说八道。
This is all complete nonsense.
人工智能并不是什么神奇的变革者。
AI is not a magical game changer.
它只是我们长期所经历的指数级进步的延续。
It's simply the continuation of the exponential progress we have been on for a long time.
它在某些领域是胜利，在其他领域是失败，但总体而言是一个胜利，也是一个不错的工具。
It's a win in some areas, a loss in others, but overall a win and a cool tool to use.
它会继续改进，但不会变得自我递归或类似传言中的那种情况。
It will continue to improve, but it won't go recursive or whatever the claim is.
它一直就是递归的。
It's always been recursive.
是的。
Mhmm.
你看到像自动研究这样的东西，确实很酷，但并不是魔法。
You see things like auto research and it's cool, but it's not magic.
它只是搜索。
It's search.
人们看到人工智能，就把它当成科幻小说里的东西，其实它只是搜索和优化。
People see AI and they attribute some sci fi thing to it when it's just search and optimization.
一直都是这样。
Always has been.
如果你在计算机科学课上认真听过，你就知道这些技术的局限在哪里。
And if you paid attention in CS class, you know the limits of those things.
话说回来，如果你的工作就是为别人制造复杂性，那你迟早会被看穿。
That said, if you have a job where you create complexity for others, you will be found out.
寻租者的时代即将结束。
The days of rent seekers are coming to an end.
但这并不是因为不会再有寻租行为，而是因为寻租是零和游戏，你会输给了更大的玩家。
But not because there will be no more rent seeking, it's because rent seeking is a zero sum game and you will lose at it to bigger players.
如果你从事这样的工作，或者在这样的公司工作，越早辞职，结果就会越好。
If you have a job like that or work at a company like that, the sooner you quit, the better the outcome will be.
他其实是在告诉你，该开始打磨简历了。
He's telling you to start polishing your resume.
这才是裁员背后真正的驱动力。
This is the real driver of the layoffs.
大玩家将寻租行为集中到自己手中。
The big players consolidating the rent seeking to them.
他们只是说这是人工智能，因为这样能让股价上涨。
They just say it's AI because that makes the stock price go up.
关键是不要参与零和游戏。
The trick is to not play zero sum games.
这正是我一直以来一直在说的。
This is what I've been saying the whole time.
去为他人创造价值，不要担心回报。
Go create value for others and don't worry about the returns.
如果你创造的价值超过你所消耗的，任何运转良好的社群都会欢迎你。
If you create more value than you consume, you're welcome in any well operating community.
不是无限的，也不是总需要更多，只是比你消耗的多就行。
Not infinite, not always needs more, just more than you consume.
够了，别被别人或比较陷阱误导。
That's enough and avoid people or comparison traps to tell you otherwise.
世界并不是红皇后赛跑。
The world is not a Red Queen's race.
这条帖子的传播度会远低于那些末日论内容，但它告诉你出路在哪里。
This post will get way less traction than the doom ones, but it's telling you the way out.
是的。
Yes.
这是一篇非常清醒、能重新梳理认知的好文。
A very good sober read sort of resetting the narrative.
我正在思考，社交媒体毒性之后会出现哪些积极的迹象。
I am trying to think of like the the the green shoots that come out of like the social media toxicity.
因为我也同意，很多人其实很害怕。
Because I agree that there's a lot of people that are afraid.
我的意思是，我经常会遇到一些完全陌生的人。
I mean, people like, I have completely random people.
有一个工作100%不会被AI影响的人，问我是不是有什么大事正在发生。
Someone who has a job that will 100% not be affected by AI whatsoever, asking me about the something big is happening.
然后只是好奇，这到底意味着什么？
And and just wondering like, oh, what does this mean?
我会不会丢掉工作？
Like, am I gonna be out of a job?
但其实不会，以你做的工作来看，你肯定不会丢掉工作。
And it's like, no, you're definitely not gonna be out a job given what you do.
因为你的工作非常具体、非常个人化，有无数个原因让它不会被取代。
Because what you do is very, very physical and personal and like there's a million different reasons.
总之，我很喜欢那种关于OpenClaw的爆款帖子，它不是制造恐惧、让你觉得必须彻底改变一切，而是能激发年轻人对创造事物、对科技产生兴趣。
Anyway, the the I I I do I do like the idea of a viral post about OpenClaw being not a fear based, I need to change everything, but a way for young people to get interested in building things, in technology broadly.
我觉得我自己走的并不是一条通往科技领域的传统路径。
Like, I did not go through a traditional path to get to technology, I think.
我的意思是，我确实上过一门计算机科学课。
I mean, I did take one computer science class.
但主要是
But mostly,
当
when
我还是个孩子的时候，我学了Adobe Flash。
I was a kid, I learned like Adobe Flash.
我用了Adobe Dreamweaver，这是一种可以让你在不编写所有代码的情况下生成网站的工具。
And I used Adobe Dreamweaver, which was sort of a tool that let you generate websites without writing all the code.
你可以只是选中
You could kinda just highlight
Dreamweaver 是个绝佳的名字。
Dreamweaver was a fantastic name.
Dreamweaver 确实是个好名字。
Dreamweaver is a great name, actually.
应该有人把这个名字重新启用。
Somebody should bring that back.
我的意思是，也许Adobe应该对它做点什么。
I mean, maybe Adobe should should do something with it.
但基本上，你只需要选中标题，就能直接更改字体，而不需要去查看HTML标签、找到CSS类，再在CSS里调整字体大小。
But, basically, you could just, like, highlight a title and change the font without needing to actually go into the HTML tag, look at the CSS class, change the change the font size in in CSS.
所以这简单多了。
And so it was a lot easier.
但对我来说，这成了一个入门点，让我逐渐学习Python、C语言，以及更多关于计算机的知识。
But that was sort of an entry point for me to learn Python and learn C and learn more about computers over time.
我认为，所有那些疯狂的病毒式末日帖背后，其实有一个积极的一面：总会有一些人自然而然地转向更有创造力的工作，也许他们会说，是的，我之前其实是在走一条寻租的路。
And and I think that that's sort of the silver lining for all the crazy viral doom posting is that there's going to be people that just sort of naturally move to more creative jobs and maybe they're like, yeah, I was kind of going down a rent seeking path.
我喜欢构建东西。
I like building things.
我喜欢制造东西。
I like making things.
我喜欢创造价值。
I like creating value.
所以他们会转向这个方向，并产生积极的影响，我认为这是好事。
And so they will they will come over to that and start having a positive impact, which I think is good.
但这真是一个有趣的反思。
But it's a it's a it's a funny reflection.
是的。
Yeah.
这个递归评论也很有意思。
The recursive comment's interesting too.
显然，这项技术就是互联网。
Obviously, the the technology has been, you know, the Internet.
对。
Yeah.
而且，你创造了互联网，它就变得更容易了，是的。
And like, you make the Internet, it becomes easier Yeah.
更快地制作更多的互联网产品。
Faster to make more Internet products.
就像马克·扎克伯格
Like Mark Zuckerberg
他就是互联网本身。
He's Internet.
用谷歌来为Facebook编写第一个PHP代码。
Using Google to write the first PHP for Facebook.
是的。
Yeah.
就是这样。
That's just the thing.
这某种程度上是安德烈·卡帕西的观点。
This has kind of been Andre Karpathy's take.
对吧？
Right?
他认为，这实际上只是一条平滑的曲线。
Where it's like Well, it's actually just kind of this smooth curve.
太喜欢了。
Love it.
这根本不是从零到一的事情。
This is not really like a zero to one thing.
它只是沿着同一条路径发展。
It's kind of just on the same path.
我喜欢平滑的曲线。
I love smooth curves.
皮质醇水平太低了。
Cortisol level's so low.
太低了。
So low.
太棒了。
It's great.
Tiny Corp 正在变大。
Tiny Corp is getting bigger.
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