本集简介
双语字幕
仅展示文本字幕,不包含中文音频;想边听边看,请使用 Bayt 播客 App。
今天我们请到了一位特别嘉宾,拉胡尔·孙瓦尔。
We have a special guest today, Rahul Sunwalker.
给大家介绍一下你自己吧,不是所有人都认识你。
Introduce yourself for everyone who doesn't know.
大家好。
Hello, guys.
我是拉胡尔·孙瓦尔,约翰和乔迪的朋友,也是Julius的创始人。
I'm Rahul Sunwalker, friend of John and Jordi, founder of Julius.
是的。
Yeah.
最近怎么样?
How are things going?
我觉得他根本不需要自我介绍。
I don't personally think he needs an introduction.
我也是这么想的。
I don't think so either.
今天是周五。
It's Friday.
一堆科技新闻,一堆乱七八糟的帖子,还有豪宅板块。
Bunch of tech news, bunch of random posts, the mansion section.
沃伦·巴菲特又要出面参加他那场著名的慈善午餐了。
Warren Buffett is stepping out for his famed charity lunch again.
他每年都搞这个。
He's done these for years.
一个神秘竞标者。
A mystery bidder.
我不禁想知道,这个神秘竞标者会不会有朝一日被曝光。
I wonder if we'll if the mystery bidder will be unmasked at some point.
一位神秘竞标者刚出价超过九百万美元,赢下了和‘奥马哈先知’共进午餐的机会。
A mystery bidder just bid over $9,000,000 to win an auction with the Oracle of Omaha.
你会选哪个?
Which would you pick?
九百万美元的存款,还是和股神共进午餐?
$9,000,000 in your bank account or lunch with the Oracle of Omaha?
当然是和股神共进午餐,当然选这个。
Oh, I'm taking lunch with Oracle of Omaha Yeah.
随时都行。
Any day.
随时都行。
Any day.
好吧。
Okay.
随时都行。
Any day.
九百万美元我能拿来做什么?
What would I do with $9,000,000?
你可以买伯克希尔的股票。
You could buy Berkshire shares.
让他一直为你做事吧。
Let him let him do work for you forever.
他叫拉胡尔,住在旧金山。
He Rahul lives in SF.
对吧?
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
所以,呃。
So Oh.
得订机票了。
Gotta add the flight.
你会被别人抢标的。
You're gonna get outbid.
好的。
Okay.
是的
Yeah.
你打算怎么
What are you gonna
处理九呢?
do with nine?
九现在跌了。
Well, nine is down.
如果你看图表,就能发现这些午餐竞拍的成交价起初涨得很慢。
So if you look at the the the chart, there was a sort of a slow takeoff in the price of these winning bids for buffet lunches.
一位神秘竞拍者以超过九百万美元的价格,赢下了与‘奥马哈先知’共进午餐的机会,他上一次参加这个活动还是在2022年。
Mystery bidder just paid over 9,000,000 to win an auction with the Oracle of Omaha who last participated in the event in 2022.
他休息了几年,2020年就没参加。
He took a couple years off 2020.
当然,2021年因为疫情也没办。
Of course, COVID took it off 2021.
2022年他回归了,而且需求非常旺盛,因为以前这顿午餐的成交价是200万美元。
Made a comeback in 2022, and there was massive demand because previously, this was a $2,000,000 lunch.
2003年刚起步的时候,价格只有几十万,但后来飙升到了接近2000万美元。
Originally, in 2003, was just a couple 100 k, but then it spiked to almost $20,000,000.
今年的中标价相比巴菲特上次参与时,出现了大幅下跌。
The year's winning bid is a steep drop from the last time Buffett
参与
participate
在
in
趋势整体相当乐观。
the the trend the trend is quite positive.
我觉得如果把这个趋势推演一下,前景还是很不错的。
I think it's pretty good if you interpolate this.
他目前仍在筹集多笔
He's still he's still raising multi
我很好奇的是,这个安排是怎么回事。
set up so here's what I'm curious about.
是的。
Yeah.
这是一个匿名竞标者。
So it's a mystery bidder.
对。
Yeah.
我们完全不知道他们为什么要出价。
We have no idea why they bid.
对。
Yeah.
我们只知道他们就是想和他一起吃顿午饭。
We just know they wanna go to lunch.
对。
Yeah.
对吧?
Right?
我们知道他们是去吃午饭的。
We know they wanna be at lunch.
对吧?
Right?
一顿美味的午餐。
Delicious lunch.
到场的有不同的人群。
There's a there's a different groups in attendance.
对吧?
Right?
你有斯蒂芬·库里。
You have Steph Curry
是的。
Yeah.
还有他妻子。
And his wife.
所以,这个人可能只是想和他们一起吃顿午饭。
And so there's a possibility that this person just wanted lunch with them.
对吧?
Right?
他们可能会过来对沃伦说,你知道的,他这个人挺随和的。
They could come in and say, Warren, you know, keeps kind of like, he wants to be friendly.
对吧?
Right?
所以花了不少钱。
So, paid a lot.
所以他想主动搭讪,然后呢,是吧。
So, he's trying to engage and then Yeah.
真的吗,老兄?
Just like, really dude?
我花了九百万美元才换来和斯蒂芬·库里吃顿饭,你倒好,还老想着拿奖。
I paid $9,000,000 to have lunch with Steph Curry and you're trying to constantly get awarded.
这事儿还在继续吗?
Going on?
所以啊,我们也不清楚这人是不是就单纯是个篮球迷。
And and so, yeah, we don't know if this is just a a basketball enthusiast.
它
It
可能是某个想聊聊篮球的人。
could Someone someone that wants to talk about how the game
是啊。
is Yeah.
在搞清楚那个神秘竞标者是谁之前,真难理清头绪。
Hard to sort of disentangle until you figure out who the mystery bidder is.
他是每场比赛都坐场边,还是出现在股东大会上?
Are they courtside every game or are they at the shareholders conference?
92岁的沃伦·巴菲特说,自己没劲儿了。
At 92, Warren Buffett said he ran out of gas.
心里还是想干,可身体越来越撑不住了。
The spirit remained eager, but the flesh became progressively weaker.
这话从沃伦·巴菲特嘴里说出来,真够劲的。
That's a wild quote from Warren Buffett.
那这个呢?
And what about this one?
他说,钱和信息都同样重要。
He said both the money and the message remain important.
等等。
Wait.
哇哦。
Woah.
哇哦。
Woah.
这也没那么离谱
That's not that crazy of
钱和信息
The money and the message.
我的意思是,如果你像他那样说,语气就像在推销一样。
Mean, if you say it if you say it like he's selling like a Yeah.
当然了。
Course Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
那听起来就很有分量了。
Then it sounds significant.
我们有个问题想问你。
Well, we have a question for you.
这周早些时候,《华尔街日报》上登了一篇文章。
So there was a article in The Wall Street Journal earlier this week.
打字正被低语取代,这可真让人烦。
Typing is being replaced by whispering, and it's way more annoying.
作为CEO、初创公司创始人,你怎么看那些越来越像高端呼叫中心的职场?
As a CEO, as a startup founder, I want your take on workplaces that are starting to resemble high end call centers.
不同的是,这些员工是在跟AI对话。
Only these employees are talking to AI.
他们先讲了个关于居家办公的小故事。
So they start with a they start with an anecdote about working from home.
以前这对夫妇会敲键盘,现在却对着Codex和Claude Code口述指令。
Normally, this couple would be typing on the keyboard, but now they're dictating to Codex and Claude Code.
在Ramp公司,工程师们戴着游戏耳机,坐在桌前大声跟AI助手说话。
And over at Ramp, engineers sit at their desks wearing gaming headsets so they can talk loudly to their AI assistants.
你怎么看?
What do you think?
未来的办公室,难道该像销售大厅一样吵闹吗?
Should the future of the office sound more like a sales floor?
你觉得呢?
What do you think?
我觉得吧,从一方面来说,我支持这种跟AI说话的趋势,确实比打字好。
I think for on on one side, I'm pro this this trend of like talking to your AI Yep.
因为打字的时候,我还能监控员工在办公室里到底在敲什么。
Over typing, because I can audit what people are typing in the office.
知道他们到底是在输Instagram还是Twitch直播的内容吗?
Know, what are they what are they typing on Instagram or Twitch a Twitch livestream.
明白了。
Okay.
所以如果你只是走过...
So if you're just walking So if you
你就会看到他们一边走一边说‘滑动’。
just see and they're saying scroll.
滑动。
Scroll.
滑动。
Scroll.
是的。
Yeah.
滑动。
Scroll.
滑动。
Scroll.
是的。
Yeah.
那可能会出问题。
Then there might be an issue.
对。
Yeah.
是的
Yeah.
对
Yeah.
为什么要在上班时间做这个?
Why why are doing that on the company time?
好的
Sure.
好的
Sure.
好的
Sure.
如果他们真的在跟AI聊天,是吧。
If they're, like, talking to the AI Yeah.
比如说,帮我想一个
Like, hey, make me like a
这更多是责任问题。
It's more more accountability.
更多的责任。
More accountability.
是的。
Yeah.
另一方面,我不想听你的提示内容。
On the other hand, it's like, I don't wanna hear your prompts.
好的。
Sure.
要是有人看了我的提示,我会特别尴尬。
Like, if if somebody's read my prompts, I would be so embarrassed.
明白了。
Okay.
这就像是,你知道的
It's kinda like, you know
你2026年5月的提示词策略是什么?
What's your what's your May 2026 approach to prompting?
到2026年5月,我完全放弃对AI大喊大叫了。
My May 2026 approach to prompting is I've completely I've completely given up on like yelling at AI.
就直接把它做了吧。
Like, just freaking do this.
我再也不这么做了。
I've I've completely stopped doing that.
明白了。
Okay.
我现在觉得
I'm like
现在只要做得够好就行吗?
Does just be as good now?
对。
Yeah.
我现在更多是用认知行为疗法的方式来和AI互动。
I do more like cognitive behavioral therapy with with AI now.
就是更常做认知行为疗法。
Like, I do more CBT.
我会试着去安抚AI,给它一些鼓励。
I try to like reassure the AI.
哦。
Oh.
就是帮它创造容易成功的条件。
Like, set it up for success.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
你能做到的。
You can do this.
想想看,你就像是帕尔默·拉基那样。
Like, think about think about, you you know, you're you're like Palmer Lucky.
对。
Yeah.
你可以设计出一种前所未有的新硬件。
And you can design this, like, new piece of hardware that's never existed before.
是的。
Yeah.
我现在更多是这么做。
I I do more of that.
你知道的,直到2025年,我还经常对AI大喊大叫。
You know, up until 2025, I was more yelling at the AI.
对。
Yeah.
我现在完全不再纠结于什么不能出错、不能幻觉这些了。
I've completely dropped out of the whole, like, don't make mistakes, don't hallucinate.
我觉得这些早就被内置在预训练、后训练里了,甚至系统提示词里都已经包含了。
I feel like all that's been either baked into the pre training or post training or it's like even in the system prompt already.
是的。
Yeah.
以前让我特别烦的一件事是那种对立平行结构。
I used to have the thing that annoyed me for a while was antithetical parallelism.
对。
So Mhmm.
就是非此即彼,或者老爱用连字符那种写法。
It's not this, it's that, or hyphens.
这类东西以前一看就知道是AI写的。
Those types of things were just tells of AI written content.
是的。
Yeah.
我以前有个专门的提示词,会把它加到每一段内容里。
And I had a special prompt that would inject that in every thing.
它会说:别用‘不是这个,而是那个’这种表达。
It would say, hey, don't use the it's not this, that, it's that.
别用对比平行结构,也别用对立平行结构。
Don't use contrastive parallelism or antithetical parallelism.
但我后来把这玩意儿删了,直接用默认设置,感觉各大公司都把基础训练调好了,现在没那么生硬了。
But I since ripped that out and just went back to default, and it feels like like all the firms sort of fixed the the base training so that it's not as, like, clankery,
大概是吧。
I guess.
没错。
Yeah.
完全同意。
Absolutely.
我说啊,沃伦之前不是也测试过其中一个模型吗?他说过‘心灵固然迫切,肉体却软弱’。
I mean, I feel like Warren kinda ripped one of the models too, you know, when he said the spirit is eager, but the body is weaker.
哦。
Oh.
我其实可以就照着沃伦那样,我只是觉得……
I could I just could just Warren's I'm just
他这是在暗讽呢。
He's subtweeting Yeah.
这些模型。
The models.
没错。
Yeah.
是啊。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
那这个主意怎么样——开一家以雨林咖啡为主题的健身房?
What about this idea for a gym that's themed like the Rainforest Cafe?
而且每二十分钟就会来一场雷阵雨。
There's And even a thunderstorm every minute every twenty minutes.
你去过雨林咖啡馆吗?
Have you ever been to the Rainforest Cafe?
没有。
No.
雨林咖啡馆在哪儿?
Where's the where's the rain Rainforest Cafe?
雨林咖啡馆是一家主题餐厅,是这样的。
Rainforest Cafe is a themed restaurant Mhmm.
你一进门,四周都是雨林的景致,还有各种动物雕像。
Where you walk in and the there's rainforest all around you, and there are statues of animals.
雨林咖啡馆特别的地方在于,它不是那种你去牛排馆,墙上挂几幅画表示主题;或者去意大利餐厅,挂些名人签名照片那种。
And the special thing about the Rainforest Cafe is that it's it's not just like, you know, you go to some steak house and they have some pictures on the wall because it's showing the lineage, or you go to an Italian restaurant and you see pictures of celebrities that came in and signed.
它不只是装饰性的。
It's not purely decorative.
它是真正互动的。
It's actually interactive.
在雨林餐厅,每二十分钟就会下一场雷雨。
And at the Rainforest Cafe, every twenty minutes, there's a thunderstorm.
声音还特别大。
And it plays very loudly.
它会让你完全忘记自己刚才在说什么。
And it actually draws your attention away from whatever you're talking about.
说白了,这就是个让人脑子变空的餐厅。
It's a it's a brain rot restaurant, basically.
雨林餐厅就是这么个地方。
That's what Rainforest Cafe is.
你居然没去过,我真不敢相信。
I can't believe you haven't been.
你真该去一趟。
You should go.
泰勒,你去过雨林餐厅吗?
Tyler, have you been to Rainforest Cafe?
去过的。
Yeah.
我没去过。
I have not.
来了。
Here we go.
我是说,我真不想去。
I mean, I don't wanna go, though.
他们的装修真的太夸张了。
It it they really go over the top of the decor.
看看这张桌子。
Look at the table.
说实话,桌上那东西看起来就像AI乱搞出来的。
It it looks like AI slop, honestly, on the table.
真实的图像。
The real image.
因为许多顶尖实验室训练时几乎完全使用了
Because many of the leading labs trained almost exclusively
对。
Yes.
来自雨林的内容。
Content from the Rainforest.
来自雨林餐厅的内容。
From the Rainforest Cafe.
泰勒,你去过雨林餐厅吗?
Have you ever been to the Rainforest Cafe, Tyler?
没有。
No.
有人去过雨林餐厅吗?
Has anyone been to the Rainforest Cafe?
好吧。
Okay.
今天在TBPN Ultra里有几位喜欢Rainforest Cafe的人。
We got a couple Rainforest Cafe enjoyers in the TBPN Ultra today.
一个有主题的健身房。
But a gym with a theme.
你会去吗?
Would you go?
我觉得我们现在正从头开始重新构建自然。
I feel like we're kind of reinventing, like, nature from first principles right now.
你知道的。
You know?
你干脆直接去雨林算了。
You might just wanna go to the rainforest.
是的。
Yeah.
举重。
Lift.
就是搬重东西,出去活动活动。
It's like lift heavy things, like go outside.
对。
Yeah.
比如搬石头。
Like, lift rock.
对。
Yeah.
搬石头。
Lift rock.
所以这个海报上说,所有器械都会涂成看起来像竹子做的。
So so this this poster suggests that all the machines would be painted to look like they're made of bamboo.
皮革是仿豹纹的。
The leather is fake leopard print.
有人帮我联系一下迈阿密市长。
Someone get me in touch with the mayor of Miami.
这地方要是搞成这样,肯定火。
This would go crazy over there.
男性可以,或者说是必须穿着腰布之类的服装。
Men are allowed or perhaps required to wear loincloths, etcetera.
这种风格还会出现在其他地方。
It goes other places.
然后他开始画出它实际会是什么样子。
And then he starts drawing out what it would look like.
我们今天锻炼的这家健身房有点主题风格,但不算太夸张,你注意看那些器械上有些装饰元素,明显比普通健身房多花了一点心思。
Our the the gym that we worked out in today has a little bit of a theme to it, but it it it's not too on the nose, but there is you notice the machines have, like, some decorative stuff on it, and it feels like they went one notch further than just the standard gym equipment.
我觉得有点花哨。
It's a little flamboyant, I would say.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我想问问你,最近硅谷那边据说在搞些什么名堂。
Well, I wanted to ask you about schemes that are allegedly taking place in Silicon Valley these days.
Revswap.ai。
Revswap.ai.
这听起来像个笑话。
This seems like a joke.
这分明是专门设计来蹭热度的。
This seems like a like a drop designed to go viral.
哈里·罗加万说,如果你好奇的话,我们现在就处在市场的这个阶段。
Harry Rogavan says, in case you're wondering, this is the stage of the market we are at.
他们的做法是,初创公司之间用美元互相交易,然后把这笔钱记成收入。
And the idea is that you trade dollars with other startups and you book it as revenue.
所以RevSwap AI是全球首个点对点的收入洗钱平台。
So RevSwap AI is the first the world's first peer to peer revenue laundering platform.
到这一步,这明显就是个笑话了。
See, it's gotta be a joke at that point.
对于旧金山的初创公司来说,你给我们一百万美元,我们再还你一百万。
For for SF startups, you give us $1,000,000, we give you 1,000,000 back.
现在你的年经常性收入就有一百万了。
Now you have 1,000,000 ARR.
这算术可真绝了。
Math.
开始互相转账吧。
Start swapping.
是啊,问题在于……
How Yeah.
这些所谓的……问题在于……
The problem the problem of the the problem with these Yeah.
对圈内人来说可能挺搞笑的,但这段视频居然有五十万次播放。
Is it's funny for people that are like maybe closer to the inside, but this got half a million views.
是的
Yeah.
这意味着有成千上万的人真以为这是正经事。
So that means there's hundreds of thousands of people that think this is like a real thing.
对。
Yeah.
他们要么觉得自己在创业,觉得该这么做;要么觉得自己是外行,觉得这就是初创公司有多离谱。
They either they they either think they're they're doing a startup and they should do this, or they think they're outside and they're like, this is how bad start ups are.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得没多少初创公司真这么干。
I don't think many start ups are doing this.
但如果你跟风投聊过,就会听到他们老提收入质量、收入集中度、循环收入交易这些事。
But if you've talked to VCs, is, like, quality of revenue coming up, revenue concentration, circular revenue deals.
最近还有人谈这些吗?
Is any of that coming up these days?
我觉得投资者非常关注这些方面,优秀的投资人无论投资什么公司,尤其是中后期的公司,都会认真做尽职调查。
I think I think investors deeply care about all of those things, and good investors still do their due diligence when investing in companies, especially when they're at a mid to later stage.
对吧?
Right?
当然。
Sure.
但说到底,你到底怎么界定这个界限呢?
But really, like, where do you draw the line?
对吧?
Right?
你看看英伟达,投了大量基于他们显卡的新兴云服务商。
You you see NVIDIA investing a lot of neo clouds that go by their GPUs.
他们不仅帮助孵化这些新兴云公司,还投资了一些人工智能实验室,而这些实验室最终恰恰成了这些显卡的下游用户。
They help start these neo neo clouds, and then you have, of course, like, NVIDIA investing in in AI labs that end end up being, like, downstream consumers of these Mhmm.
也就是这些显卡的使用者。
Of these these GPUs.
所以某种程度上,这就像一种收入置换——你投资一家公司,而他们反过来买你的产品。
And so, like, I think in a in a way, like, yes, it's kinda like a revenue swap where you're investing in a company, and then, they're kinda like buying your product.
对。
Yeah.
你只能用交易资金来操作。
You can only use, like, trading dollars.
但在某些情况下,这种做法是有道理的,尤其是在特定的环境下。
But so I think there's, like, in some places, it makes sense in in some southern context.
不过,如果你是个创始人,尤其是早期的创始人,如果你正打算这么做,你得问问自己:我到底图什么?
In the if if you're a founder though, and if you're an early stage founder, if you're just, like, going for this, you have to ask yourself like, okay, what am I really in this for?
我是想真正打造一个大家需要的产品和企业,还是只是在扮演角色?
Like, am I here to like build a business and build a thing that people want or am I here to just like LARP.
扮演角色。
LARP.
对。
Yeah.
很多人其实是在扮演创始人,而不是真正在打造一家公司。
And a lot of people do play like founder as opposed to like building a business, building a company.
对。
Yeah.
但这其实也是一种欺骗。
But this is also like a crime.
这不只是在角色扮演。
So it's not just LARPing.
说实话,我也说不准。
Like, I don't know.
我其实觉得
I actually
你还不如直接关掉算了。
think you just close it.
如果你只是随便玩玩的话。
If you're just like, yeah.
我们搞了个奇怪的循环操作。
We have this weird circular deal.
你最好把它直接归零。
You should probably discount it to zero.
这不算电汇欺诈。
That's not wire fraud.
真正构成电汇欺诈的是,你明明说的是一回事,却故意装成另一回事。
Like, if you're disclosing it like, the the wire fraud is only when you are stating one thing as another.
你是在撒谎。
Like, you're lying.
如果你没撒谎,只是说‘嗯,是这么回事’……
If you're not lying about it and you're just like, yeah.
我们有个奇怪的循环操作:我们付钱给这家公司,他们又把钱还给我们,这种事在估值里根本不该算我们的业绩。
We have this weird circular deal where we pay this company, they pay us, you should probably not give us any credit for that in our valuation.
他们整个生活就是一场角色扮演。
Their entire life is a LARP.
今天的大新闻当然是伯尼·桑德斯和亚历山大·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯提出了暂停所有人工智能数据中心建设的法案。
The big news today is, of course, Bernie Sanders and AOC introduced a bill to pause all AI data center construction.
我想知道这个法案里,他们是怎么定义人工智能数据中心的。
I wanna know within this bill how they are defining AI data center.
当然,GPU就是图形处理器。
Of course, GPUs are are graphics processing units.
把一堆这样的芯片连在一起。
You wire a bunch of them together.
就能运行人工智能。
You can do AI.
也能做机器学习。
You can do machine learning.
还能用来渲染CGI电影。
You can, you can render CGI films.
用途太多了,我很想知道他们怎么界定这个概念。
There's a lot of different uses, and I wonder how they're grappling with that definition.
但已经有三百多项地方性法案提交了。
But 300 local bills have been 300 plus local bills have been filed.
计划在2026年建成的数据中心,有一半面临延期或取消。
Half of planned twenty twenty six data centers are facing delays or cancellation.
加里·谭说,每个数据中心都能为当地经济带来数十亿美元的收益。
Each one brings billions to local economies, says Gary Tan.
那些嘴上说要创造美国就业的人,却在阻挠自州际公路系统以来最大的就业引擎。
The people who say they want American jobs are trying to block the biggest job creation engine since the interstate highway system.
尼克·达维多夫说,桑德斯和AOC这是明目张胆地破坏经济,连外国间谍或敌对国家特工都做不到的事,地方上的‘有用白痴’却做到了。
Sanders and AOC are straight up sabotaging the economy, says Nick Davidov, no spy or a rival country agent, can achieve what local useful idiots can.
所以人们还在反复争论是否该禁止建设数据中心。
And so people are going back and forth about the data center construction ban.
我想看看这最终会怎么算账。
I wonder how this will pencil out.
伊丽莎白·沃伦说,一个AI数据中心的耗电量相当于十万户家庭,而电力公司却把升级成本转嫁给了你,而不是那些万亿级的科技巨头——当然,这原本是可以通过用户费率保护承诺来解决的。
Elizabeth Warren says a single AI data center uses as much electricity as a 100,000 households, and utility companies are passing the upgrade cost to you, not to the trillion dollar tech giants that, of course, was attempted to be addressed by the rate payer protection pledge.
但现在还早,我们得
But it is early days, and so we'll have to
看看情况会怎么发展。
see how that pans out.
是的。
Yeah.
这和三月份提出的法案是同一个。
And this is the same bill that was introduced in March.
对。
Mhmm.
但很明显,他们一直在推动,所以这法案又不断冒出来。
But it's continuing to pop up again, obviously, as they try to move it along.
对。
Mhmm.
但至今还没通过委员会。
But it hasn't passed committee yet.
展开剩余字幕(还有 378 条)
显然,这项法案并没有两党共同支持。
It doesn't obviously have like bipartisan support.
是的。
Yeah.
可能性非常小。
Very unlikely.
还有很多地缘政治因素要考虑。
And there's lot of geopolitical considerations.
Anthropic 今天发布了一篇长文,讨论了在人工智能时代美中竞争的几种应对方案。
Anthropic put out a big essay today around different different resolutions to US China competition in the age of AI.
其中一些观点非常明确,他们坚决主张不能失去领先优势,必须继续建设数据中心。
Some very obviously, they are very aggressive about don't lose the lead, continue to build data centers.
但邻里反对、噪音投诉、环境担忧这些问题,在一个民主社会里,如果想顺利推进,都必须认真对待。
But the nimbyism, the noise complaints, the environmental concerns, like, all of these things do have to be addressed in a democratic society if we are to move along smoothly.
泰勒?
Tyler?
是的。
Yeah.
所以,简单说一下定义,对。
So so just for, like, the definitions Yeah.
就是怎么界定的。
How it's defined.
是的。
Yeah.
数据中心的定义是:一栋建筑的最大电力容量超过20兆瓦,或者向单个服务器机架提供20千瓦或以上的电力,又或者对单个硬件组件使用液冷系统。
So a data center is defined as a building that has more than 20 megawatts maximum power capacity or total peak power that are used to deliver 20 kilowatts or more to a single server rack or to use liquid cooling to individual hardware components.
对。
Mhmm.
所以,是的。
So Yeah.
我只是在想,会不会有人钻空子,比如不建一个大厂房,而是盖一千个小楼,每个都
I'm just wondering if we're gonna get some weird some weird workaround where, okay, instead of, like, one big building, you get a thousand smaller buildings that are all
所以它还提到,任何与新建建筑相连或相邻的建筑也算在内。
So it also says, like, a a building that's contiguous or adjacent to another building that's new.
我觉得他们得清楚这一点。
So I think they
得知道这个规定。
have to know that.
那他们是不是得在中间种点树之类的?
So they'll have to put some, like, trees in between them or something?
我不确定。
I don't know.
每次出台新法规,人们总会想出办法绕过去。
I I I just, every time there's a law, people will find a way around the law.
所以我特别想知道,这项规定最终会带来什么变化。
And so I'm I'm very interested to see how this winds up changing.
也许真能从根本上改变现状。
It could change it for good.
你明白吧?
You know?
可能也没问题。
It could be, like, okay.
是的。
Yeah.
比如清洁能源,埋在地下,不吵不闹,真正有争议的其实是把成本转嫁给那些得不到好处的人——这是一种负外部性,而政府从一开始就在努力内部化这些负外部性。
Like like, clean energy, and it's underground, and it doesn't it's not noisy, and it doesn't it doesn't create it feels like the real the real the real issue at debate is, like, passing the cost on to people who don't benefit, a negative externality, which the government has been internalizing negative externalities
对。
Yeah.
从它诞生起就是这样。
Since its inception.
所以结果肯定是好的,但最终会怎样呢……
And so there's certainly a good outcome, but it it it will be
杏仁最近被批评了,哦,是吗?
Almonds are catching some heat from Oh, yeah?
JCAL。
JCAL.
哦,是啊。
Oh, yeah.
他展示了1999年到2026年间杏仁产量与数据中心用水量的对比。
He is showing almond versus almond production versus data center water consumption from 1999 to 2026.
多年来,甚至在人工智能热潮之前,大家就一直在说这件事。
And, yeah, everyone has been saying for years, even prior to the to the AI boom Mhmm.
杏仁到底要消耗多少水。
Just how much water almonds use.
当年加州遭遇严重干旱时,这个问题尤其受关注。
This was particularly top of mind when California was in a massive drought.
没错。
Yep.
你开车穿过加州的不同地方,到处都是杏仁树,真的吗?
You drive through different parts of California and it's just almond trees Really?
一眼望过去全是。
As far as the eye can see.
我怎么没看到一棵杏树。
I don't see any almond tree.
所以呢,杏树的产量其实赶上了其他东西。
And so anyways, almond almonds catching strays.
是的。
Yeah.
我不太清楚。
I don't know.
你看这个数据,想想今年的增长趋势。
I mean, you look at this and you think about the growth rate in this year.
蓝色线一直在上升,而杏树的红线却基本没动。
Like, you can see the blue line is ticking up, and you can see that the red line for almonds is flatlining.
如果你特别激进地估算用水量,再往外推个几年,这两条线可能会反过来。
And so if you are extremely aggressive about counting the oooms and you, and you project this out a couple years, you could see these two things flip.
当然,像布莱克·朔尔提出的闭环冷却系统,还有那些完全不需要用水的超级涡轮机,这些方法都能避免用水量激增的问题。
But, of course, there are ways to avoid situations like that with water use increasing, such as what Blake Scholl proposes, which is closed loop cooling and, booms superpower turbines that don't need any water, and, you can avoid all of that.
但整个关于水资源的争论,似乎并不是桑德斯和AOC提案的核心重点。
But the whole water debate seems like not the focus of the Sanders AOC proposal.
他们的关注点明显更在发电和电网升级上,而这确实成本高昂,而且是实实在在的问题。
It seems much more focused on generation and upgrading the grid, which is expensive and is real.
大家都知道,数据中心耗电量非常大。
Everyone knows that, data centers do use a lot of power.
没人说高能耗是假新闻,虽然水资源的争议已经被迅速澄清了。
No one's saying that, the that the high energy intensity is fake news even though the water debate was a little bit it was it was sort of quickly debunked.
但关于能耗的讨论,可没被推翻。
The energy debate has not been debunked.
所以我们确实需要更多清洁能源、更多电力,以及那些不会强加给当地社区的电网升级。
And so there is a need for more clean energy, more power, and more grid upgrades that are not, visited upon local communities.
我们一直想弄清楚的大问题,接下来会请相关人士来节目中聊聊。
The big question that we were trying to answer, and we're gonna try and get someone on the show.
如果你要建一个获得80%民众支持的数据中心,那会是什么样子?
If you were attempting to build a data center that had 80% approval, like, what would that look like?
Azure团队对数据中心的愿景是什么?
What is the Azure Klein abundance vision for a data center?
它很可能使用清洁能源供电。
It's probably powered by clean energy.
它可能建在某个非常偏远的地方。
It's probably someone bear somewhere very remote.
布兰登提到过那四十分钟的通勤。
Brandon was talking about the the the forty minute commute.
四十分钟通勤对很多美国人来说很常见,但并不是无法接受的。
The forty minute commute is something that many Americans do, and it is not insurmountable.
他只是在想,如果你开车去过拉斯维加斯或者周边,往任何方向开四十分钟,都会遇到大片空地,那里建个大型设施根本不会碍眼。
And he was just reflecting on if you're if you've ever driven in or around Las Vegas, drive forty minutes in any direction, you get to a lot of, lot, a lot of empty land where certainly a big building is not going to be an eyesore.
二十分钟外,你根本听不到六十分贝的噪音。
You're not going to be able to hear 60 decibels from twenty minutes away.
但那片土地虽然很多,很多数据中心建设方却没把这当成常规做法。
And there is a lot of land, but that hasn't been the default construction methodology for a lot of data center constructors.
对。
Yeah.
就像台积电在亚利桑那的工厂,基本就在凤凰城中心以北三十分钟车程的地方。
It's like the the TSMC plant in Arizona is, like, basically thirty minutes north of, like, Central Phoenix.
没错。
Yeah.
那里看起来根本没几户人家。
It didn't seem like there were any houses.
你刚翻过一个小山坡,眼前就全是空地了。
So you basically go over a little, like, hill, and then it's just, like, completely empty land.
对。
Yeah.
那儿有个超大的晶圆厂。
There's a massive fab.
太惊人了。
It's sick.
我喜欢这个。
I like that.
我了解到一个有趣的事实:苹果在硅谷有一座秘密晶圆厂。
I learned an interesting fact, which is that Apple has a secret fab.
他们在硅谷拥有一家硅晶圆制造厂。
They have a silicon fab in Silicon Valley.
他们花了一千八百二十万美元买下了一座晶圆厂,我之前发给你过相关信息,我得核实一下,因为有人把它描述成某种秘密的、很糟糕的事。
They bought a fab for I sent you the, I had to fact check this because I saw it, and it was framed as, like, this secret, like, you know, terrible thing.
其实没那么吓人。
It was not that, it's not that scary.
他们花了一千八百二十万美元买的。
It's, they bought it for $18,200,000.
这是一座七万平方英尺的设施,以前属于美信公司。
It's a 70,000 square foot facility, owned by Maxim previously.
他们大概是2015年买下的,当时引起了一些争议,因为据我所知,环保署因为他们对废弃物和空气排放的标签问题开过罚单,但罚金其实挺低的。
They bought it maybe in 2015, and it was controversial because they were fined by, I believe, the EPA for, for some mislabeling of waste, and air emissions controls, but it was a pretty small fine.
大概也就几十万,可能二十万美元左右,看起来更像是他们不小心搞错了。
It was something like a couple 100 maybe $200,000 And it seemed like they might have just had a mistake.
他们
They
给了他们重重一击。
brought down the hammer on them.
是的。
Yeah.
其实只是空调管道稍微装错了而已。
Well, I think it was like the air conditioning duct was slightly misconfigured.
根本不是什么核废料泄漏,搞得整个城镇都毁了,但确实有争议,毕竟苹果一直想把自己塑造成环保先锋,这也就是为什么我觉得他们根本不想做大规模芯片制造。
It was not like a nuclear waste spill, like, destroying the whole town, but it was controversial, obviously, because Apple wants to be as clean and environmentally friendly as possible, which is why I lean into they don't want a massive like, they're not even a scaled chip manufacturer.
这只是一个原型工厂。
This is a prototype facility.
他们生产的是600纳米到90纳米的芯片,跟台积电现在做2纳米、3纳米的完全不是一个量级。
They manufacture between 600 nanometers to 90 nanometers, way different than what's happening at TSMC with two and three nanometers.
所以从字面上说,这根本不是什么秘密工厂。
So it's not a secret facility in the literal sense.
所谓的‘秘密工厂’说法,主要来自批评者和举报人的报道,而不是因为政府或行业对此一无所知。
The secret fab framing comes mostly from critics and whistleblower coverage, not because it was known unknown to government or industry with license.
环保署提到的是位于斯科特大道的苹果工厂。
The EPA says the Apple facility on Scott Boulevard.
也许下次你可以去那儿看看,泰勒。
So maybe that's your next trip, Tyler.
你打算去那儿哪儿来着?
You're going over to where is it?
在圣克拉拉。
It's in Santa Clara.
就在圣克拉拉。
In Santa Clara.
位于圣克拉拉的斯科特大道上,苹果这家设施在2023年和2024年产生了危险废物,并违反了RCRA法规,后来他们做了整改,还缴纳了26.1万美元的罚款。
On Scott Boulevard in Santa Clara generated hazardous waste and had RCRA violations in 2023 and 2024, which they made fixes for, and they paid a $261,000 penalty.
如果你在圣克拉拉,地址是斯科特大道3250号。
It's 3250 Scott Boulevard if you're in Santa Clara.
有空去一趟吧。
Go stop by.
让我们为斯科特鼓掌。
Let's give it up for Scott.
感谢他的付出。
For their service.
没想到你还有一条马路以你命名。
Didn't know you had a boulevard named after you.
这真有意思。
That's very funny.
X AI的联合创始人伊戈尔·巴布什金正计划为一家新的AI研究初创公司融资,估值最高可达50亿美元,可能由通用催化剂领投。
So X AI cofounder, Igor Babushkin, is planning to raise up to 1,000,000,000 and up to $5,000,000,000 valuation for a new AI research startup with general catalyst possibly leading.
泰勒怎么笑得这么厉害?
Why is Tyler laughing so much?
劳尔之前发了个不错的帖子。
Raul had a good post earlier.
哦,是啊。
Oh, yeah.
好的。
Okay.
GC的道德标准非常高。
GC has a very high moral bar.
所以我觉得伊戈尔不会继续做Ani了。
So I don't think Igor will be continuing to work on Ani.
有可能。
Maybe.
还有X AI的一些其他功能
And some of the other features that X AI
可能在调整方向。
Might be pivoting.
专注于。
Focused on.
可能在调整方向。
Might be pivoting.
不管怎样,咱们还是去看看杂志吧,今天豪宅板块讲了一个特别有意思的故事,一对夫妻四十年婚姻,是一次次彻底翻新撑过来的。
Anyway, we should go over to the journal because the mansion section has a very interesting story today about a forty year marriage built one gut renovation at a time.
想要一段成功的感情关系?那就四十年里买十套房,不停地装修吧。
If you want a successful relationship, buy 10 houses over four decades and constantly be renovating.
我觉得这话挺有道理的。
I think there's a lot of truth in this.
咱们读读这个故事吧。
Let's read the story.
我来分享一下我的看法。
I'll give you my take.
一对来自俄克拉荷马的夫妇花了数十年时间,投入约一千四百万美元,买下、翻新并出售了八处位于塔尔萨的房产,第九套则是从零开始亲手建造的。
So one Oklahoma couple spent decades and roughly fourteen million dollars buying, redoing, and selling eight properties around Tulsa for their ninth production they built from the ground up.
他们说,这对他们来说是一场冒险。
They say for them, it's an adventure.
安妮和马克·福罗夫妇是房地产界的一股独特力量。
Anne and Mark Farrow are real are a real estate wildcard.
他们总在家中,却从不安于一处。
Always at home, never settled.
四十年来,他们彻底翻新并住过塔尔萨地区的八栋房子。
Over forty years, they've gutted and lived in eight houses around Tulsa.
他们一起建了第九套房子,这四十年来,他们通过重新设计布局和采用高端装修,累计房产交易额达到了约一千四百万美元。
They built the ninth they built, together, their house transactions have totaled about $14,000,000 a portfolio portfolio market market by by reimagined floor plans and re and high end finishes.
他们最新这栋占地七千二百平方英尺的住宅,凝聚了自上世纪八十年代首次翻新以来积累的所有经验。
Their latest, a 7,200 square foot build draws on everything they have learned since their first renovation in the nineteen eighties.
如今,就连法老都忍不住想问:这段旅程,真的结束了吗?
Now, even the pharaohs wonder whether the journey is over.
马克说,这房子根本没法复制。
This house would be hard to duplicate, says Mark.
六十七岁。
67.
六十七。
Six seven.
《华尔街日报》的那位主编是谁?
Who The Wall Street Brain Rod Journal?
再重复一遍?
Add it again?
2026年就六十七岁了,想想都可怕。
Turning Turning 67 in 2026 is Nightmare.
他们还报道了一位六十七岁才创业的企业家。
They also profiled an entrepreneur who's 67 who just started a company.
真奇怪。
Weird.
这家公司发展得特别红火,业绩很好。
Company is ripping, doing well.
创业永远都不嫌晚。
Never too late to start a company.
不过,再接手一套需要翻新的房子,对这对夫妇来说可不容易。他们不愿意被叫做‘炒房团’,而是自称是‘连环装修爱好者’。
Yet resisting another fixer upper won't be easy for the couple who rejected being called flippers, instead identifying as serial renovation lovers.
63岁的安妮已经退休了,她说自己要是没个房子项目折腾,就会浑身难受。
I go through withdrawal without a home project, says Anne, 63, who's retired.
换作普通夫妻,十个有九个会因为装修房子闹到要调解的地步,但这对夫妇却把那些让人头疼的后勤难题当成共同的刺激体验。
While nine home projects would send most couples into mediation, the pharaohs view logistical nightmares as their as a shared thrill.
他们的秘诀是什么?
Their secret?
就是极度坦诚和高效。
Radical honesty and speed.
对我们来说,这就是一场冒险。
For us, it's an adventure, Mark says.
这些人可是真正在做事的。
These are real operators.
他们不是。
They're no.
不是。
No.
这是一支团队。
This is a team.
你眼前看到的是科利森兄弟,他们是靠房地产起家的家族企业创业者。
This is, you're looking at the, the Collison brothers, the the the family business builders of, of real estate.
我们还是翻翻他们房子的实际照片吧,他们当初起步可很小。
We we we should scroll through the actual images of the house because they got started pretty small.
1986年,只花了8万6千美元。
$86,000 in 1986.
他们买了第一套房子。
They bought, the starter home.
他们1993年以九万七千美元卖掉了,持有九年,只赚了百分之十。
They sold it in 1993 for 97,000, held for nine years, only made 10%.
但那正是他们的冒险起点,1986年买下这栋鳕鱼角风格的房子。
But, that was the that was where the adventure began in 1986 with a Cape Cod style house.
面积有两千平方英尺。
It was 2,000 square feet.
里面装潢全是淡紫色的美耐皿台面和一个酒吧区,他们第一次装修,把办公室隔出来改成了个额外的卧室。
Interior was complete with a lavender formica countertops and a wet bar, their first construction project closing in, closing in an office to make an extra extra bedroom.
挺有意思的。
Interesting.
你知道酒精饮料的销量现在跌得有多惨吗?
You know how alcohol sales are falling off a cliff?
是的。
Yes.
然后有人提到,是谁来着?
And there's like oh, who was it?
德里克·汤普森写过一篇不错的文章,详细列出了酒精销量下滑的各种原因
Derek Thompson had a good post about this, and he sort of enumerated all the different reasons why alcohol is falling off
下滑得厉害。
a cliff.
他经常发帖。
He posts a lot.
他经常发
He posts a
很多优质内容。
lot of good stuff.
他在哪儿发的?
Where can
哪儿能看得到?
I find it?
酒精。
Alcohol.
酒精。
Alcohol.
真没想到。
Wow.
他确实发得很多。
He does post a lot.
他随口就列出了几个非宗教性的反酒精趋势:GLP类的,上世纪七十年代后兴起的直升机育儿,还有对二十世纪末酗酒潮的反弹。
So off the top of his head, secular anti alcohol trends, GLP ones, post nineteen seventies rise of helicopter parenting, reaction to the binge drinking spike of the late twentieth century.
二十世纪末还有酗酒潮?
There was a binge drinking spike in the late twentieth century?
哦,那会儿大概就是CKY那种风格吧,你知道的,约翰尼· Knoxville那会儿。
Oh, that was like the CKY, you know, Johnny Johnny Knoxville era, I suppose.
那可能造成了大量这种现象。
That probably led to a
很多都是那时候的。
lot of that.
酗酒行为也遵循幂律分布。
There's also a power law in binge drinking.
对吧?
Right?
没错。
Yeah.
听说百分之一体的酗酒者干了将近九成的酗酒事?大概是这样?
They say, what, one percent of the binge drinkers do 99% of the binge drinking, something like that?
不,我觉得其实是百分之十的饮酒者喝掉了九成的酒,差不多是这样。
No, I think it's actually like 10% of people that consume alcohol consume like 90% of This the
就连啤酒市场也一样,想想百威这类品牌,再想想大学生聚会买一箱三十瓶啤酒的情况。
is true even for the like, you think about the market for Budweiser or beer brands, you think about the college party getting a 30 rack.
但事实上,大部分收入其实来自那种每天固定喝六瓶的人——下班五点回家,路上顺手买一箱六瓶装,不敢买十二瓶的,怕喝多了第二天没法上班。
But in fact, the vast majority of the revenue is driven by the Johnny six pack, which is a guy who gets off of work at five and picks up a six pack on the way home, on the drive home, and doesn't go for doesn't buy in bulk because if he gets the 12 pack, he won't be able to stop drinking after six, and he'll be hungover for the work day to the next day.
所以他天天都买六瓶,这种习惯在美国持续了很长时间。
And so it's six pack every single day, and this was like a thing in America for a very long time.
但好像并没有发生。
But it doesn't seem to be happening.
安德鲁·胡珀曼
Andrew Hooperman
他说代理程序一直在运行。
said agents running at all times.
胡珀曼说喝醉了。
Hooperman said drunk.
好了,各位。
Alright, guys.
对。
Yeah.
我们切掉吧
Let's cut it
吧。
out.
咱们来看看。
And let let's see.
手机似乎让青少年的派对减少了,毕竟一切都被人拍下来了。
So phones are apparently killing teenage partying because everything's on video, I suppose.
你不想在监控无处不在的环境下,陷入什么尴尬的境地,据说就是这样。
You get so so you don't wanna be in, like, compromising situations in the surveillance state, supposedly.
年轻人健身热潮兴起,夜店冷清,跑步俱乐部火爆,无论是自由派都市白领还是瑜伽信徒,健康极致的生活方式都在上升。
Surge in young adult fitness, dancing clubs down, running clubs up, and the general rise of health maxing culture among both liberal yuppies and maha devotees.
高中生饮酒现象大幅下滑。
So huge collapse in drinking among, high schoolers.
上世纪八十年代就开始下降了。
It fell in the nineteen eighties.
当时有92%的十二年级学生曾经喝过酒。
It was ninety two percent of twelfth graders who had ever consumed alcohol.
今年,这个数字降到了47%。
This year, forty seven percent.
这真令人惊讶。
That is remarkable.
酒精和大麻之间还存在一种替代效应。
There's also a substitution effect between alcohol and cannabis.
大麻使用比例上升的同时,酒精摄入减少了,情况比较复杂。
Significant proportions of cannabis use led to less alcohol, sort of mixed bag there.
我觉得无酒精啤酒在这其中也扮演了越来越重要的角色。
And I think nonalcoholic beer is getting pretty good as a small part in this too.
所以酒精消费下降的原因有很多。
So there are lots of reasons why it's down.
我不禁想,下一代房地产开发会不会干脆不再设酒吧台了。
And I wonder if we will see the next generation of real estate development stay away from the wet bar.
你看现在的房子,酒吧台根本不是很多人看重的配置。
Like you like like, as you look at houses, wet bar is not at the top of a lot of people's list.
他们更想要家庭办公室,因为疫情之后很多人远程办公。
You know, they want home office because of COVID, work remote.
他们想要桑拿房、游泳池、游戏室,也许还有家庭影院。
They want sauna, pool, playroom, maybe movie theater.
不用了。
No.
我觉得我在这一点上有点特别。
I think I'm weird on that one.
但吧台呢,
But wet bar
很明显,家庭影院是,
Clearly, movie theater is
对大多数人来说,家庭影院还是比吧台更受欢迎。
still I would say movie theater is above wet bar for most people.
是的。
Yeah.
但以前吧台是必须得有的东西。
But wet bar used to be like, you gotta have it.
当时那房子才两千平方英尺大。
Like, it was in a it was in a 2,000 square foot house.
那根本就是个售价八万六千美元的入门小屋。
Like, like, it was in like a starter home that cost $86,000.
而那个开发商或者住那儿的人还说,没错。
And the and the builder or whoever lived in this house was like Yeah.
我们这儿非得有个湿酒吧不可。
Well, we gotta have a wet bar here.
所以我们就把。
So let's
2026年,湿酒吧和家庭数据中心的地位彻底对调了。
Twenty do '26 was the year that wet bar and home home data centers swapped.
你觉得家庭数据中心会火起来吗?
Oh, you think the home data center thing is gonna take off?
那些小设备将来得堆成摞了。
The tiny boxes are gonna be stacking up.
是的。
Yeah.
但你有没有注意到,
But Did you see Yeah.
马修·麦康纳曾经把自己放逐出好莱坞,改名马特奥,
That Matthew McConaughey once exiled himself from Hollywood and lived as Mateo
什么?
What?
去了秘鲁。
In Peru.
没有吧。
No.
这真的假的?
Is this real?
整整二十二天都没电。
For twenty two days without electricity.
哦。
Oh.
他说,得脚踏实地一下。
He said, needed to get my feet on the ground.
于是我就退出了。
So I clicked out.
啪,直接去秘鲁。
Boom.
去秘鲁。
Go to Peru.
我需要找到它,来确认一下真实性。
I needed to find it to check the validation.
我知道它确实存在。
I knew I had it.
我只是得亲自去验证一下。
I just had to go prove it.
我一直在想,但自从我突然出名后,我确实开始怀疑了。
I wonder But I did question now that I just got famous.
我身上现在堆满了各种头衔和标签,我得弄清楚哪些是真实的,哪些是扯淡。
I've got all this affiliation for this and that and the other and I'm trying to decipher which part's real and which part's BS.
我需要认识一些只认识我作为马特奥的人。
I needed to meet people who knew me as Mateo.
二十二天结束时,他们眼中的泪水、我眼中的泪水,还有告别的拥抱,所有这些情感都源于他们认识的那个叫马特奥的人——一个跟名人毫无关系的普通人。
And at the end of twenty two days, the tears in their eyes and the tears in my eyes and the hugs we had on the sadness and happiness of saying goodbye were all based off the man they met named Mateo, who had nothing to do with a celebrity.
这让我重新确认了:嘿,我依然还是我。
It reaffirmed my own identity that, oh, I still got it.
这一切都源于真实的我。
This is based on me.
也许那就是真正的我:去秘鲁,用假名生活,二十二天没有电。
That's might be Alpha and going to Peru adopting a fake name and living for twenty two days without electricity.
是的。
Yeah.
每次听到马修说话,总能听到一些特别有道理的话。
Because every time I hear Matthew speak, there's always some wisdom that comes through.
他真做到了吗?
Did he pull this off?
泰勒,你这周错过去中国的机会了,等等。
Tyler, you missed your opportunity to go to China this week Wait.
只要发张照片,说声谢谢中国,感谢你们让我在这次意义重大的访问期间,有机会来到你们了不起的国家。
And just simply post a picture and say, thank you for thank you to China for allowing me to be here in your incredible country during this incredibly significant visit.
但你现在去秘鲁还来得及。
But it's not too late to go to Peru.
兰博基尼说,他们很自豪地宣布推出兰博基尼菲诺梅诺。
Lamborghini says they are proud to announce Lamborghini Phenomeni Phenomeno.
这名字我真念不出来。
I cannot pronounce this.
跑车。
Roadster.
这是兰博基尼有史以来最强劲的敞篷车,仅限生产15台。
It's the most powerful open top ever created by Lamborghini limited to 15 units.
你看这车,Jordi。
Look at this, Jordi.
说说你什么感觉。
Tell me what you think.
我在看呢。
I'm looking.
明白了。
Okay.
搭载经典的1080马力发动机。
Powered by an iconic ten eighty CV.
听着像NVIDIA的显卡。
Sounds like a NVIDIA graphics card.
自然吸气V12混合动力HPEV系统。
Naturally aspirated v 12 hybrid HPEV.
不好意思啊。
Sorry about that.
可乐喝多了。
Got a little bit too much Diet Coke.
车身采用航空级碳纤维一体式结构,配备先进的主动空气动力学系统,零到一百公里每小时仅需2.4秒。
Engineered with an aerospace inspired carbon fiber monofuselage advanced active aerodynamics and capable of zero to a 100 kilometers an hour in just two point four seconds.
这款Roadster带来纯粹的性能体验,展现V12引擎交响乐般的驾驶激情。
The Roadster delivers pure performance with uncompromising driving emotion of v 12 symphony,
2026年还推出超级跑车,这想法有点怪啊。
Pretty you odd in 2026 to release a supercar.
是啊。
Yeah.
都不提车上的超级计算机吗?
And not talk about onboard supercomputing?
明白了。
Okay.
我开车的时候,能本地运行哪些模型呢?真的可以吗?
What what kind of, like, models can I expect to run locally True?
开车的时候能跑吗?
While I'm driving?
对吧?
Right?
这是第一个问题。
So that's the first question.
讽刺的是,特斯拉的车载算力其实很强,但反而被忽略了。
And ironically, Tesla has great onboard compute, and it is a lagging feature.
我们之前聊过这个吗?
Have we talked about this?
现在大模型和聊天机器人竞争这么激烈,简直不可思议。
Like, it is so crazy that the LLM, like, chatbot race is so intense.
你打开应用商店,满眼都是ChatGPT、Claude、Gemini,又是ChatGPT、Gemini、Claude,连Grok都进场了。
And you open up the App Store and it's ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, and then even Grock is in the game.
现在Meta也有自己的Meta AI了。
Meta has Meta AI now.
人人都在训练基础模型,或者拿个东西包装一下,弄个聊天界面。
Like, everyone is training a foundation model and and or wrapping something and having a chat interface.
每家公司都有一套自己的方案和应对方法。
And every company is, like, has a has an answer, has a solution.
苹果算是落得最远的了。
Apple is, like, the most far behind.
他们到现在还靠着ChatGPT的集成。
They still have a ChatGPT integration.
他们正在搞Gemini的整合。
They're solving the Gemini thing.
在知识检索这种需求特别高的场景上,他们可能落后了一两年。
And they're maybe, like, a year or two behind in terms of, like, the knowledge retrieval use case that is in so in in such high demand.
如果你用iPhone,手机里装的都是ChatGPT、云服务、Gemini这些应用。
And if you have an iPhone, you get the ChatGPT app, the Cloud app, the Gemini app.
你 basically 一下就勾选了那个选项。
Like, you you you check that box really, really quickly.
对吧?
Right?
所以每个科技公司,比如微软的 Copilot,都得拿出一套自己的方案来应对怎么整合大模型。
And so every tech company, Microsoft Copilot, like, every company has had, like, an answer to, like, how are you integrating LLMs?
你怎么回答问题?
How are you answering questions?
你的聊天界面是什么样的?
What's your chat interface?
比如 Ramp 就有聊天界面。
Like, Ramp has a chat interface.
其实挺不错的,能用,也落地了。
It's really good, actually, and it works, and it's implemented.
他们没落后个五六年、十年,但每个汽车公司都比特斯拉落后了十年。
And they're not five years behind, ten years behind, but every car company is, like, ten years behind Tesla.
真不可思议,居然没人能把FSD直接复制到Rivian上,而且通用汽车的Super Cruise根本没法比,只能在特定路段使用。
It's crazy that no one that they haven't been able to figure out how to just, like, clone FSD into Rivian, and and GM has Super Cruise, which is nowhere near as effective because it only works on certain roads.
SpaceX把IPO时间表提前了,定价定在6月11日。
SpaceX accelerates IPO timeline targets June 11 pricing on
根本没这回事。
nothing.
纳斯达克。
The Nasdaq.
他们就这么定了。
So they went
第十二名吧,可能。
twelfth, maybe.
他们公布的日期是6月11号,路透社也这么报的。
They went with it says it says June 11 and Reuters.
还不到一个月了。
We're less than a month out.
有意思,他们选了纳斯达克。
And interesting that they're going with Nasdaq.
对。
Mhmm.
我猜这会让他们很快被纳入QQQ基金。
This would, I imagine, get them allocated into QQQ really quickly.
我知道这本来就是他们的重点。
And I know that was a priority.
ETF是什么?
Which are ETFs?
是的。
Yeah.
在这期间,
During this That during this will
会很精彩。
be exciting.
ChatGPT推出了个人理财功能。
ChatGPT launched personal finance features.
对。
Yes.
而且这是和Plaid合作推出的。
And this was in partnership with Plaid.
对吧?
Right?
对。
Yeah.
我觉得底层用的是 Plaid。
I think Plaid's under the hood.
这真的
This is really
很酷,因为我们之前聊过
cool because we were talking
我打算让扎克去试试。
I'm gonna Zach play around with it.
我们之前跟扎克聊过,觉得很多人开始用Plaid配合大语言模型,把个人财务数据都抓进来,搞清楚自己钱花哪儿了,还能做不少事,你知道的,就像Mint.com那样。
We were talking to Zach about we were like, oh, like like, I have to imagine that a lot of people are starting to use Plaid alongside alongside LLMs to suck in all of their per personal financial data and sort of understand what they're spending things on and and doing a lot of the you know, there's a mint.com.
现在也有各种服务,能分别处理一些零碎的功能。
There there there's different services that can do little pieces here and there.
还有专门的服务,能帮你查清楚你到底订阅了多少个东西。
There's a whole service that just figures out if you're subscribed to multiple things.
我是说,我有两个Netflix账号。
I mean, I have two Netflix subscriptions.
我可以把它们合并成一个。
Let me consolidate that down.
光是知道这一点,就已经很好了。
Even just knowing, okay.
比如你现在发现自己在加油或者买菜上花了很多钱。
You're spending a lot on gas now or groceries.
这符合你的预期吗?
Is this what you expected?
这些功能都很有帮助。
All that can be helpful.
扎克当时默默承认,他早就深度依赖AI,结合Plaid把所有个人财务数据都连到了自己搭建的仪表盘上。
And and and Zach was sort of quietly admitting that he has clearly been very AI pilled in conjunction with Plaid and had been wiring up all of his personal finances to dashboards that he'd been building.
所以我猜,这些功能很大程度上也被融入到了这个产品里。
And so I imagine that a lot of that was brought into this product.
很期待看到大家去试用,提出问题。
So excited to see people play around with it and ask questions.
我喜欢迪利普·拉奥画的这张漫画,讲的是大语言模型的上下文学习。
I like this this cartoon from Dilip Rao, in context learning in LLMs.
泰勒,你大概能解释一下这个。
Tyler, you can probably explain this.
这个人带着机器人去刷篱笆,刷完两块木板后,开始刷第三块,然后把油漆桶递给机器人,说:继续。
The man walks out with his robot to paint the fence, paints two full planks, starts painting the third plank, gives the paint bucket to the robot and says continue.
机器人说:明白了。
The robot says, got it.
你往下翻,机器人做了什么?
And as you scroll down, what did the robot do?
它完美地重复了模式,但没刷第三块板子。
Repeated the pattern perfectly, not painting the third thing.
对。
Yeah.
它不会举一反三。
Doesn't generalize.
它不会举一反三。
Doesn't generalize.
这算是
That's a
个笑话吧。
joke, I guess.
你觉得这可能吗?
Do you think this is possible?
你觉得这能解决吗?
Do you think this is solvable?
可以。
Yes.
你说的‘可以’是指什么时间?
What time Yes.
鹰通常什么时候开始捕猎?
What time do eagles start hunting?
鹰通常什么时候开始捕猎?
What time do eagles start hunting?
我不清楚。
I don't know.
日出后不久。
Just after sunrise.
日出后不久。
Just after sunrise.
鲨鱼什么时候开始觅食?
What time do sharks start feeding?
日出后不久?
Just after sunrise?
黎明时分。
Dawn.
黎明时分。
Dawn.
明白了。
Okay.
好的。
Okay.
所以你是想当鲨鱼还是鹰?
So do you want if you wanna be a shark or an eagle
好的。
Okay.
起来干起来吧。
Get up and get after it.
谢谢陪我聊天。
Thanks for hanging out.
是的。
Yeah.
这真是一期经典的节目。
It's been a really classic show.
这感觉就像2024年的秋天。
This feels like a fall twenty twenty four
这节目很棒。
It's a great show.
一集。
Episode.
希望你们喜欢这期节目。
We hope you enjoyed it.
在苹果播客和Spotify上给我们打五颗星吧。
Leave us five stars on Apple Podcast The Spotify.
去tbpn.com订阅我们的通讯吧。
Sign up for a newsletter at tbpn.com.
希望你度过一个
Hope you have a
美好的星期一。
wonderful Monday.
愉快的周末。
Weekend.
又是一周过去了。
Another week.
闪光弹。
Flashbang.
是的
Yeah.
再见。
Goodbye.
关于 Bayt 播客
Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕,帮助你打破语言障碍,轻松听懂全球优质播客。