SpaceX IPO 千兆流

那时候，SpaceX还非常年轻。

Back then, obviously, SpaceX was very young.

资源少，动力不足，势头也弱。

Less leverage, less less energy, less momentum.

所以那些决定拖了很久才做。

So, these decisions would be drawn out.

她说，当时我决定加入这家初创公司，风险实在太大了，毕竟这个行业从来没人成功过。

She said it seemed so risky for me personally to join this little startup in an industry where none had ever succeeded.

我想她那时候正要组建家庭，从职业发展来看，这确实很冒险。

I think she was starting a family around that time, and so it was risky from a career perspective.

她说，当时我是个单亲妈妈，只能兼职工作。

She said, at the time, I was a part time single mother.

是啊。

Yeah.

这完全超出了我的舒适区。

And this was just too far out of my comfort zone.

她习惯了大公司，那些更成熟的机构。

She was used to bigger corporations, more established companies.

她要去的这家小初创公司，那时候就是个靠互联网赚了钱的人，突然想搞火箭。

She's going to this small startup that has, you know, it's at that time, it's like a guy who made money on the Internet now wants to do rocketry.

这种事能成的概率有多大？

What's the chance that that works?

听起来简直疯了。

It sounds crazy.

那时候确实如此。

And it was at the time.

她说，有天她在洛杉矶的高速公路上开车，突然想明白了。

She says, was driving on the freeway here in LA when it finally hit me.

我简直太蠢了。

I was being a total idiot.

就算我试了这份工作，要么我失败了，要么公司垮了，那又怎样？

Who cares if I tried this job and either I failed or the company failed?

那一刻我明白，最重要的不是结果，而是去尝试本身。

What I recognized at that moment was that it was the trying part that was the most important.

去试试那个有风险的主意。

Try that risky thing.

参与一件令人激动的事。

Be a part of something exciting.

这真是一段了不起的历程。

What a what a fantastic run.

我不确定她是不是第一个提出‘剩余能力’这个词的人，但确实在星链项目开始见效的时候，她就开始频繁使用这个说法。

And she I I I'm not sure if she coined the term residual capability, but that's a big phrase that she started using around the time Starlink started working.

就是那种提前建设、超前布局的想法。

Just this idea that they would go and build ahead of demand almost.

所以SpaceX建造的发射能力，实际上远远超过了当时的市场需求。

So they SpaceX built basically more launch capacity than there was demand for.

但正因每趟发射都有余量，而且他们造火箭又快又便宜，才能部署庞大的星链卫星网络，顺势又开拓出另一项庞大的业务。

But then because there was space on every SpaceX rocket and they were able to build them so so efficiently, so affordably, they were able to put up a massive constellation of Internet connected satellites, Starlinks, and develop another huge business on top of it.

所以这种先建造、再寻找各种机会的思路。

And so this idea of of building building building and then finding the different opportunities.

有一阵子，SpaceX的点对点运输被视为未来几年最大的潜力所在。

For a while, SpaceX point to point was the big the big residual capability unlock that was coming in a few years.

想象一下，你从纽约登上星舰，三十分钟就能到东京——因为你直接飞到太空再折返，然后精准降落。

The idea that you get on a spaceship, a starship in New York and you'd be in Tokyo in thirty minutes because you would have gone all the way to space and back and it would land.

我觉得这仍然是计划的一部分，但显然在星舰项目上被搁置了，公司宣传材料里也基本不提了。

I think that's still part of the plan, but obviously took a back seat in the S1, took a back seat in the marketing materials for the company.

但如果你真能大幅提升火箭发射的安全性、性能和成本效益，为什么不坐火箭三十分钟环游世界呢？

But something that is still possible if you wind up delivering incredible safety and performance and cost reductions to the rocket launches, why not hop on a rocket to get across the world in thirty minutes?

听起来挺酷的，而且相比高超音速飞机，可能更容易获得批准，毕竟那些飞机卡在审批里好几十年，始终没成真。

Sounds pretty cool and probably oddly easier to approve than hypersonic planes since those have been stuck in regulatory approvals for for, you know, years and decades and never really worked out.

《华尔街日报》也在回顾格温·肖特维尔。

The Wall Street Journal is also reflecting on Gwen Shotwell.

他们列出了关于SpaceX总裁的十九件事。

She's they say 19 things to know about SpaceX president.

她是个外交家。

She's a diplomat.

她为人沉稳，让那些对马斯克行为感到不安的人重新对公司建立了信任。

She's seen as a steady hand engendering trust in the company from those who have been unsettled by Musk's actions.

你担心他的政治立场。

You're worried about his politics.

你担心他的其他公司。

You're worried about his other companies.

但Shotwell用她稳健的掌控力，为你解决了这些问题——她管理着一家两万两千人的大公司，她自己也提到了这一点。

Well, Shotwell has you covered with a very steady hand on the tiller at a very large company with 22,000 employees, as she mentioned.

IPO之后，Shotwell成了亿万富翁。

She's a billionaire after the Shotwell after the IPO.

Shotwell的净资产将远超十亿美元。

Shotwell's net worth will be well north of 1,000,000,000.

她持有大约一千二百六十万股。

She owns about 12,600,000 shares.

她把马斯克那些宏大的想法转化为现实。

She translates Musk's lofty ideas.

这一点在我看来有点疯狂。

That part is a little bit crazy.

哪一点？

Which one?

对我而言。

To me.

哪一点？

Which one?

按现在的股价来看。

So at the current price

对。

Yeah.

她的身家可能接近二十亿美元。

She is closer to being worth like 2,000,000,000.

好吧。

Okay.

但即便如此

But still

那么早就介入，还这么关键，结果却只拿到5%甚至1%的股份

To be that early and and that critical and not wind up with a 5% stake or 1%

股份？

stake?

连1%都拿不到。

Not even not yeah.

应该是像1%这样的比例。

Like something more like a 1% stake.

是的。

Yeah.

股权被稀释得很厉害。

A lot of dilution.

你知道，那些大公司。

You know, big big companies.

很多稀释。

A lot

但稀释得厉害。

of dilution but

还有很多二手交易。

A lot of secondary.

她可能是在套现。

She might have been selling

套现。

it Selling

是Zai。

was Zai.

也许就是这样。

Maybe it was like yeah.

我们一开始就是从它做起的

We actually started out with it

我非常看好。

with I'm really bullish.

我们给了她百分之四十。

We gave her 40%.

我真的

I'm really

我从未这么看好过。

I've never been more bullish.

但你卖掉了百分之九十五。

But you did sell 95%.

在最近一次要约收购中。

In the latest tender.

是的。

Yeah.

这挺好，因为埃隆那边只敲了一次T，而她这边只敲了一次B。

That is good because, I mean, Elon's hitting one t and she's just hitting one b.

嗯，确实如此。

Well, yeah.

去年肖韦尔的薪酬是八千六百万美元，大部分是以股票期权形式发放的。

Shotwell was paid 86,000,000 last year, mostly in the form of stock options.

她是SpaceX董事会八名成员之一。

She's one of eight board members at SpaceX.

她今年62岁，和马斯克已经共事了二十年。

She's 62 and has worked with Musk for two decades.

她在发射日有个固定的仪式。

She has a specific ritual for launch days.

因为公司第一次成功将火箭送入轨道时她正在苏格兰，所以现在每次发射前，她都会在两张便利贴上写下‘苏格兰’，分别贴在两只鞋里，象征自己始终在苏格兰。

Because she was in Scotland the first time the company successfully got a rocket into orbit, she now writes Scotland on two sticky notes and places each inside her shoes to be in Scotland for every launch.

她在2020年说过

She said in a 2020

苏格兰心态。

Scotland mindset.

这可真够讲究的。

That's pretty elite.

我喜欢那个，叫什么来着？

I like is what what what's that called?

就是特别迷信的那种。

Where you're superstitious.

迷信行为。

Superstitions.

少见吗？

Rare?

会不会被低估了？

Potentially underrated?

你怎么看？

What do you think?

你有什么迷信的习惯吗？

Do you have any superstitions?

这个词里不就带着 'super' 吗？

I mean, it's in the word super.

对啊。

Yeah.

超能力。

Superpowers.

迷信。

Superstition.

迷信。

Superstition.

这又是一个例子。

That's another one.

总之。

Anyway.

吉加斯。

Gigas.

不管你身高如何，不管你是谁，去Public.com表达自己，认真投资。

Whether you're long, whether you're short SpaceX, express yourself on public.com, investing for those taken seriously.

股票、期权、债券、加密货币、国债等等，还有优质客户服务。

Stocks, options, bonds, crypto, treasuries, and more with great customer service.

你对迷信怎么看？

What's your take on superstition?

你有吗？

Do you have any?

听起来好像没有。

Doesn't sound like it.

我觉得这挺让人分心的。

I think it's I think it's quite distracting.

迷信会让人分心？

Distracting to have a superstition?

是的。

Yeah.

有点像，万一最后浪费了大量时间，所以我尽量避开这些。

Kind of like could it could end up being a pretty big waste of time, so I avoid them.

所以你觉得，除非你把所有干扰都彻底清掉，不然事情就不会顺利？

So you feel like unless you go through your whole ritual of eliminating all distractions, things aren't gonna go well.

也就是说，你对工作时出现干扰这件事挺迷信的。

So you're superstitious about letting distractions creep into your workflow.

我明白，对。

I understand Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

你正在台上。

You're on stage.

也许吧，我确实如此。

So maybe So maybe I am.

对。

Yeah.

只要有一个干扰，事情就全完了。

If I have a single distraction everything will fail.

她一直坚定地支持模拟测试。

She's been a staunch defender of mocks.

马斯克，她在所有政治动荡期间努力避免业务受损。

Musk, she worked to prevent business fallout during all the political turmoil.

她与美国宇航局官员合作，向他们保证局势会过去。

She worked with NASA officials and assured them that tensions would pass.

她并不喜欢社交媒体。

She doesn't love social media social media.

我更喜欢他本人，而不是他在推特上的样子。

I like his in person self better than his Twitter self.

事实上，很多时候他们给人的感觉完全是两个人。

In fact, they feel like two different people many of the times.

她的社交媒体形象和老板截然不同，发帖很少，而且只谈SpaceX。

She has a much different social media presence than her boss posting sparingly, exclusively about SpaceX.

她非常专注。

She's focused.

她是在芝加哥郊外长大的。

She was raised outside of Chicago.

十几岁的时候，她就决定要当一名工程师。

As a teenager, she decided she would become an engineer.

等等。

Wait.

你可以想象，她正在刷X平台。

You could imagine, like, she's reading x.

她一边发哭脸表情，一边转发六条帖子，全是哭脸表情。

She's like crying emojis, quoting six more posts, crying emojis.

他从来不会哭

He's never crying

是的

Yeah.

对

Yeah.

在办公室里

At the office.

他从不这样

He never does that.

这真是

This is

真的

like actually.

感觉我好像根本不认识这个人

Feels like I feel like I don't know this guy.

他总是哭。

He's always crying.

是的。

Yeah.

她刚加入SpaceX的时候，是业务发展副总裁。

Well, when she first joined SpaceX, she was VP of business development.

所以一开始并不是联合创始人或首席执行官那样的角色。

So not in the in like a co founder, chief executive type role on day one.

这大概也能解释她的股权是怎么逐步形成的。

And so that probably explains a little bit of the equity position and how that developed over time.

但她在2008年升任SpaceX的总裁兼首席运营官，那一年公司赢得了关键的16亿美元NASA货运合同。

But she was promoted to SpaceX's president and chief operating officer in 2008, the same year the company won a critical $1,600,000,000 NASA cargo transport deal.

所以我查了一下，她是SpaceX的第七名员工。

So I looked up she was SpaceX's seventh employee.

真厉害。

Wow.

这确实挺早的。

That's pretty early.

如果十年内SpaceX还没在月球上建立定居点，也没建起制造设施，她会很失望。

She'd be disappointed if SpaceX didn't have a settlement on the moon and wasn't building a manufacturing facility on the moon within ten years.

她付出了时间。

She showed time.

她住在德克萨斯州一处靠近SpaceX设施的千亩牧场里。

She lives on a 1,000 acre ranch close to a SpaceX facility in Texas.

她嫁给了另一位SpaceX工程师，育有两个孩子。

She married a fellow SpaceX engineer and has two children.

她把一个Starlink迷你终端装在车顶，这样每天四十分钟通勤时和马斯克通话，就不会断线。

She put a Starlink mini terminal on top of her car to speak with Musk on her forty minute commute without the call dropping.

挺有意思的。

Interesting.

吉米·索尼也回溯了过去，在《华尔街日报》上讲过SpaceX早期的一段故事。

Jimmy Soni also went back in time and told a story in The Wall Street Journal about the one of the early days in in the SpaceX journey.

这是对年轻时的埃隆·马斯克的一种肯定，他写道。

Vindication for young Elon Musk, he wrote.

2004年，他曾向参议院表示，开放竞争将彻底改变这个行业。

In 2004, he told the Senate that open competition would transform the industry.

在深入这个话题之前，我先跟你们说说Railway。

First, before we get into this, let me tell you about Railway.

Railway是一个集所有功能于一身的智能云平台。

Railway is the all in one intelligent cloud provider.

你可以用自己最喜欢的工具部署网页应用、服务器、数据库等等，Railway会自动帮你处理扩展、监控和安全问题。

Use your favorite agents to deploy web apps, servers, databases, and more while Railway automatically takes care of scaling, monitoring, and security.

这真是个挺有意思的故事。

So this was an interesting story.

我在想，我们能不能在C-SPAN上找到当时的原始视频。

And I and I wonder if we could find the actual video like on C SPAN.

我不确定能不能找得到。

I don't know if it's out there.

但在2004年，参议院召开了一次小组听证会，所有议员齐聚国会山，提出的问题如今听来简直像古董一样过时。

But in 2004, the Senate held a subcommittee meeting, gather on all the subcommittee gathers on Capitol Hill to ask a question that now sounds quaint.

没有航天飞机，美国还能不能进入太空？

Could America still reach space without the space shuttle?

现在我们隔几天就发一次，全靠SpaceX。

Of course, we do it like every couple days, thanks to SpaceX.

当时航天飞机已停飞，两起事故夺走了14名宇航员的生命，听证会现场弥漫着一种全国性的焦虑——大家担心美国在太空领域掉队了。

The shuttle was grounded, 14 astronauts had died in two disasters, and the hearing room was thick with anxiety of a nation that feared it had lost a step.

参议员比尔·纳尔逊曾乘坐过航天飞机，堪称他那个时代的贾里德·艾萨克曼，他警告说，如果没了航天飞机，美国可能要多年依赖俄罗斯的火箭。

Senator Bill Nelson, had flown on the shuttle, sort of the Jared Isaacman of his era, warned that without it, the country might spend years relying on Russian rockets.

没人提出异议。

Nobody disagreed.

证人分两组出场。

Witnesses came in two panels.

第一组是NASA团队，由负责航天飞行的副管理员威廉·雷迪带领，还有一位退役海军上将同行。

First, you got the NASA team defending the program through William Reddy, its associate administration for administrator for spaceflight accompanied by a retired admiral.

NASA发言之后，轮到企业代表了。

After NASA spoke spoke, industry did.

他们请来了ATK公司的副总裁、洛克希德·马丁的高管，还有航空航天集团的负责人。

They got a vice president from ATK, another from Lockheed Martin, a director from the Aerospace Group.

你们是在找新的替代方案吗？

Are you looking for a new a candle, a nuke one way

还是别的？

or another?

我的预测可真够残酷的。

Is brutal for my prediction.

这确实够残酷的。

This is brutal

不过我感觉还不错。

for I'm feeling I'm feeling pretty good.

慢慢适应了。

Settling in.

但对于那些期待图表上出现大起大落的人来说，今天可就失望了。

But it's also brutal for anyone that wants drama on the chart because you're not getting it today.

市场非常平稳。

It's very stable.

我觉得这个项目从头到尾都管理得非常好。

I think this is a very well managed project from start to finish.

现在它已经是个万亿级别的公司了，想大幅波动可不容易。

And then now it's just like a trillion dollar company, so it's hard for it to move super

我不确定。

I don't know.

我只是想说，你原本期待股价能有10%的上下波动，但……

I I I I just I'm think just saying you were expecting 10% swings up and

我倒觉得你的账户规模应该不大。

down I was thinking that your account is pretty small, though.

至少交易量没那么大。

Like, at least that they're being traded.

当然。

Sure.

没错。

Sure.

非常小。

Very, very small.

接下来是行业小组的最后一位嘉宾。

So the last person on the industry panel.

你有洛克希德、ATK、航空航天公司。

You got Lockheed, ATK, Aerospace Corp.

结果却是埃隆·马斯克。

It's Elon Musk.

聊天里有人提到AP。

AP in the chat.

等等回调。

Wait for dip.

等钱到位。

Wait for dollars.

五美元。

$5.

你能想象吗？

Can you imagine?

一下子就跌到五美元了。

It just nukes down to $5.

所以在第二场论坛，也就是行业论坛上，有洛克希德等重量级公司的人出席。

So on the second panel, the industry panel, you got heavy hitters from Lockheed, other industry folks.

当时有个年仅二十二岁的年轻人，两年前刚创办了一家火箭公司，但还没成功发射过任何东西。

You got a thirty two two year old man who had founded a rocket company two years earlier and he'd yet to launch anything.

那个人就是埃隆·马斯克。

It was Elon Musk.

他有个更迫切的抱怨。

He had a more immediate complaint.

NASA刚刚把一笔十亿美元的合同直接给了竞争对手，而且没有公开竞标，他的公司已经提出了抗议。

NASA had just awarded a rival a quarter of $1,000,000,000 contract without open competition and his company had protested.

所有人都在讨论NASA能不能在没有航天飞机的情况下进入太空，而他却在那儿问：那我的合同怎么办？

So everyone's there to debate like, okay, can NASA get to space without the shuttle and he's there being like, what about my contract?

他去听证会上作证，但大家还得不断把他拉回正题。

He shows up to this thing to testify and they keep having to try and keep him on track.

这事儿特别有意思。

It's a very interesting

天哪。

Wow.

真有本事，硬是挤进话里把自己的意见说出来了。

Way to, like, get his word in edgewise.

参议员们觉得这事儿不该在会上讨论。

So the senators thought the matter was off limits.

这听证会不是谈这个的，埃隆。

Like, this hearing isn't about that, Elon.

这跟你的合同没关系。

It's not about your contract.

这件事本来就在政府审查中，但他们还得不断把他拉回当天的主题——大运载能力，也就是怎么把重型设备送入太空这个核心问题。

It was under government review already and they kept having to steer him back to the day's subject, specifically heavy lift, the blunt problem of getting big things off the planet.

他确实提到过，不过这里得纠正一下。

Certainly, he said, although it's worth correcting.

我觉得雷迪先生说错了，说这是竞争性的。

I think mister Reddy misspoke when he said it was competitive.

实际上，这根本不是竞争性的。

It was, in fact, not competitive.

主席又试了一次。

The chairman tried again.

我们还是聚焦在大运载能力的问题上，埃隆。

Let's stay to heavy lift capacity issues, Elon.

别跑题。

Stay on message.

埃隆回答：当然。

And Elon says, absolutely.

但他所做的更正，已经正式记录在案了。

But his correction was safely on the record.

他说了一些委员会还没准备好听的话。

He said something the panel wasn't ready to hear.

马斯克告诉他们，过去几十年里，人类航天事业一直处于黑暗时代。

The past few decades, Musk told them, had been a dark age for human spaceflight.

一个接一个昂贵的政府项目，连发射台都没能到达。

One costly government program after another failed to reach the pad.

他认为，公众对航天的疏离，不是因为疲惫而冷漠，而是因为希望落空而失望。

The public's drift from space, he argued, wasn't the apathy of a tired people, but the disappointment of a hopeful one.

在2004年听来，这就像一个满腹牢骚、火箭才刚建了一半的人说的话。

It sounded in 2004 like a man with a grievance and a half built rocket.

他被无视了。

He was dismissed.

就在前一年夏天，他在首次出席国会听证会时就提出过同样的观点。

He had made the same case the summer before in one of his first Capitol Hill appearances.

在2003年关于商业航天的听证会上，他引用了经济学家约瑟夫·熊彼特提出的‘创造性破坏’概念。

At a 2003 hearing on commercial spaceflight, there's a borrowed concept from the economist Joseph Schumpter, a creative destruction.

这个行业已经失去了活力，四十年来没有一个成功的新兴企业出现。

The industry had lost it, not one successful new entrant in four decades.

太空领域，马斯克指出，

Space, Mr.

自阿波罗计划以来几乎毫无进步，而计算机、互联网乃至洲际飞行等其他技术，却因新进入者之间的开放竞争而彻底变革。

Musk pointed out, had barely improved since Apollo while every other technology from computing and the Internet to intercontinental flight had been transformed by newcomers in open competition.

他说道，只要重新激活这种推动力，太空领域也会发生同样剧烈的改变。

Restore that forcing function, he said, and space would change no less dramatically.

政府只需要当客户，不必亲自下场竞争。

The government need only be a customer, not a competitor.

他说话有时候挺轻佻的。

He could be glib.

他说，根据法律规定，每次从范登堡空军基地发射都要花1万美元来评估对当地海豹的影响，可那会儿海豹的数量一年就涨了将近13%。

Every launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base, he said, was required by law to be studied for its effect on the local seals at $10,000 a flight even as that population had been climbing by nearly 13% in a single year.

他说海豹们过得挺好。

He says the seals are doing fine.

让我发射吧。

Let me launch.

以这样的增长速度，穆先生

With the population with that population growth rate, Mr.

马斯克指出，很明显，范登堡的发射活动反而像是一种催情剂。

Musk observed, it seems clear that if anything, the Vandenberg launch activity serves as an aphrodisiac.

他在国会山上抛出一句句犀利的话，句句都是金句。

Dropping lines, dropping zingers on Capitol Hill.

大家都笑了。

People laughed.

那是面对一个聪明又局外人时才会有的笑声。

It was the laughter you gave a clever outsider.

但现在我们可以给这位聪明‘局外人’的论点打个分了，因为二十多年过去了，结果已经摆在眼前。

But we can grade that clever outsider's argument now because more than twenty years have passed and the record is in.

当年2004年听证会上让人忧心忡忡的、对莫斯科的依赖，并没有因为航天飞机而结束，而是被马斯克先生的公司终结的。

The fear that haunted that 2004 hearing dependence on Moscow was not ended by the shuttle but by Mr.

马斯克先生的公司。

Musk's company.

2002年，SpaceX的一艘飞船从美国本土将两名宇航员送上了空间站。

In 2002, a SpaceX capsule carried two astronauts to the space station from American soil

二零二零年。

2020.

二零二零年。

2020.

这填补了长达九年的空白，期间美国每次载人航天都要花九千万美元买俄罗斯的飞船座位。

Closing a nine year gap in which The United States paid Russia as much as $90,000,000 a seat to hitch a ride.

马斯克向持怀疑态度的参议员们介绍，这种半可重复使用的火箭，最终发展成了一支能够自主着陆并再次飞行的助推器舰队。

The semi reusable rocket, Musk described to skeptical senators became a fleet of boosters that land themselves and fly again.

现在，SpaceX发射的卫星占了全球一半以上。

Today, SpaceX launches more than half the world's payloads.

本周五，它将上市，预计会创下历史上规模最大的IPO纪录。

On Friday, it goes public in what is expected to be the largest IPO in history.

你笑什么呀，乔迪·海斯？

What are you laughing at, Jordy Hayes?

我笑的是这篇报道下的评论。

I'm laughing at the comments on this On this article.

我们之前发的那篇。

Post we made earlier.

哦，我们说了什么？

Oh, what did we say?

说要打破法国Mistral AI的垄断。

Breaking the pride of France, Mistral AI.

它正在寻求以200亿欧元的估值融资30亿欧元。

It's exploring a raise of 3,000,000,000 at a €20,000,000,000 valuation.

麻烦来了。

Trouble.

你跟法国真是过不去啊。

You have such a bone to pick with France.

你老是拿法国说事儿。

You're always taking shots at France.

法国怎么招你惹你了？

What did France do to you?

我特别喜欢法国。

I love France.

这太棒了。

This is beautiful.

我真心觉得，它是全世界我最喜欢的国家之一。

I genuinely I it's one of my favorite countries in the entire world.

我特别爱那里。

I love it.

但大家只是拿法国来开玩笑，觉得挺好玩的？

But people are having fun poking fun at France?

但我只是觉得你啊

But I just think You're

你是说，你啊

you're oh, you're

我其实是在笑我自己

I'm kind of laughing at my own

你的那个笑话。

Your own joke.

一点点。

Bit.

就那么一点。

A little bit.

因为那张卡片上只写了‘法国’。

Because the card just says France.

对吧？

Right?

上面写的是法语。

It says French.

法语。

French.

法语。

French.

咱们把它放上去吧。

Let's let's let's put it up.

好。

Mhmm.

我们会的。

We will.

《金融时报》今天对SpaceX的各种观点都涵盖了。

The Financial Times has every possible take on on SpaceX today.

往下翻。

Scroll down.

刮一下。

Scratch.

它现在怎么样？

How's it doing?

好时候。

Good times.

斯图尔特·柯克说，SpaceX在每单位轨道成本方面很便宜。

Stuart Kirk says SpaceX is cheap on a price to cosmos ratio.

对于埃隆来说，传统的估值方法并不适用。

Terrestrial evaluations don't apply when it comes to Elon.

去年六月，他写了一篇专栏文章，标题是《入门级股票估值指南》。

Last June, he wrote a column with the headline, an entry level guide to valuing stocks.

他还提供了一个简单的估值工具链接，连我家小孩新养的那只仓鼠都能用。

He also provided a link to a simple valuation tool that even my children's new hamster could use.

什么？

What?

仓鼠怎么用这个？

How can a hamster use this?

挺有意思的。

Interesting.

我想他是在开玩笑吧。

I guess he's joking around.

这句话挺奇怪的，确实有点突兀。

That's a weird that's a weird line to throw in.

不过，现金流折现模型要求企业的现金流入流出总体得是正数，这样才能算出公司值多少钱。

But discounted cash flow models require that cash moves in and out of a business to be net positive in order to calculate what a company is worth.

除非你出于某些原因想要一个负数，比如离婚法庭上那种情况。

Unless you want a negative number for some reason, like in divorce court.

所以，我九十年代中期刚当上基金经理那几年，那些拼命推销互联网股票的股票分析师们就开始用市销率了。

Hence, few years after I became a portfolio manager in the mid nineties, equity analysts trying to flog .com stocks began using price to sales ratios.

当这些看起来太荒唐时，他们又发明了点击估值和眼球估值。

When those look too silly, they invented price to clicks or price to eyeballs.

你知道最后结果怎么样了。

And you know how that ended.

难怪投资者还是更信任基于现金流的估值方法。

No wonder investors still prefer cash flow based valuation methodologies over anything else.

不过，使用其他指标，比如市销率，确实也有合理的理由。

That said, there are legitimate reasons to employ other metrics, including price to sales ratios.

当利润暂时低迷、失真或具有周期性时，市销率可以作为辅助参考，前提是收入真实且可衡量。

The latter are handy as a sense check when profits are temporarily depressed, distorted or cyclical, provided that the revenues are real and measurable.

如果市盈率显得奇怪，看看同行业内的市销率对比，往往能让人安心一些。

If a price to earnings ratio appears odd, comparing price to sales ratios within an industry can be reassuring.

而且，很多公司长期亏损，根本没法用盈利倍数来估值，就这么简单。

Moreover, plenty of firms operate at a loss and thus using earnings multiples doesn't work, period.

由于大量投入业务发展，这种情况可能持续好几年。

This can go on for years due to a heavy investment in business.

亚马逊成立于1994年，直到2003年才开始盈利，而今天很多人在为阿斯沃斯·达莫达兰庆祝，这位纽约大学的金融教授我非常敬重，但他当初对特斯拉上市时持非常怀疑的态度。

Amazon was founded in 1994 and didn't make a profit until 2003, and a lot of people are taking a victory lap today over Aswath Damodran, the NYU finance professor who I have a ton of respect for, but he was very skeptical about the Tesla IPO when that went out.

金融圈里所有理性的人当时都说，这个估值跟任何一家汽车公司、任何一家企业的基本面都脱节了。

And everyone reasonable in the finance world was saying, well, the valuation is disconnected from the fundamentals compared to any other car company, compared to any other company.

这完全说不通。

Doesn't make sense.

但后来，收入确实增长了。

But of course, the the revenues did grow.

利润也终于出现了。

The earnings did materialize.

他们最终真的赚钱了。

They did wind up making money.

不过，股价依然被高估，因为埃隆的……

Although, the the stock is still very highly valued because Elon's

对。

Yeah.

Pitch 的目标非常

Pitch is a very

宏大。

large vision.

埃隆旗下的公司能长期脱离实际基本面运作。

Elon companies can stay disconnected from the Yep.

比你维持资金运转的时间还要长。

Fundamentals longer than you can stay solvent.

斯图尔特·柯克在《金融时报》上就是这么论证的。

And that's what Stuart Kirk is arguing in the Financial Times.

他说，当涉及到埃隆时，传统的估值标准根本不适用。

He says, terrestrial valuations don't apply when it comes to Elon.

这一点，我觉得很多人都已经接受了。

And that is something that I think a lot of people have internalized.

所以就这么办。

So plan.

是的

Yes.

所以相信这个计划。

So trust the plan.

以95倍的收入进入SpaceX。

Enter SpaceX on 95 times.

我觉得是95倍的收入。

95 times revenue, I believe.

天啊。

Dude.

不是。

No.

我在这里没漏掉小数点。

I haven't forgotten the decimal point here.

你的

Your

预测是

Prediction is

不错。

good.

对于

For

你来说。

you.

一小时前看起来还很好。

It was looking so good an hour ago.

真遗憾。

Too bad.

但我得跟你聊聊MongoDB。

But let me tell you about MongoDB.

有什么比人工智能市场增长更快？

What's the only thing faster than the AI market?

你的业务基于MongoDB。

Your business on MongoDB.

别只顾着开发AI。

Don't just build AI.

要掌控支撑它的数据平台。

Own the data platform that powers it.

我刚把一月的目标估值除以过去十二个月的收入时，简直不敢相信自己的眼睛。

I seriously couldn't believe it when I first divided the target valuation of January by the last twelve months of revenues.

我笑得太大声，嘴里的酒直接从鼻子里喷出来了。

I laughed so hard, the wine I was drinking shot from my nose.

这真是我读过最离谱的《金融时报》文章了。

This is the most this is the most financial times article I've ever read.

他其实没说清楚，我差点把嘴里的东西喷出来。

He but he he's not saying he's not saying I almost I almost spit up.

但不对，这完全是两回事。

But but no, that's different.

所以，呛到一口算是种情况。

So a spit take is one thing.

你嘴里的咖啡直接喷出来了。

You spit out your coffee.

那这算什么？

What is that?

他说他当时在喝红酒，结果从鼻子里喷出来了。

He says he was drinking wine and it came out of his nose.

这也太惨了。

That's brutal.

这种事可太少见了。

Like, that's very rare.

你得是

You gotta be

这听着像

That sounds like

得喝得特别醉才会这样。

drunk for that to happen.

那情况

That

听起来像是

sounds like

你得喝得特别醉，酒精才会从鼻子里喷出来，而不是仅仅吐出来或呕吐。

You have to be really drunk to have the alcohol come out of your nose and not just spit it up or throw up.

我觉得，喝太多酒时，最糟糕的事之一就是这种事。

I feel like the tear of like bad things that can happen to you when you're drinking too

喝得太猛，我都吐了。

so hard I threw up.

嗯，

Well,

不会的。

no.

我不知道。

I don't know.

可能是我喝得太多了。

I'm maybe drinking a lot.

我笑得特别厉害，喝进去的酒都从鼻子里喷出来了。

I laughed so hard the wine I was drinking shot from my nose.

然后我又接着笑了一会儿。

Then I laughed some more.

对。

Yeah.

这人真是

This guy is really taking

完全是瞎编的。有人真的喝过液体从鼻子里出来吗？

that he just made this up entirely because Has anyone had liquid?

有人喝东西的时候，笑着笑着就……

Has anyone been drinking something, started laughing and had?

但从嘴里喷出来是一回事。

But out of the mouth is one thing.

呛咳和从鼻子里喷出来不一样。

Spit take is different than out of your nose.

从鼻子喷出来，那是新境界了。

Your nose is a new new level.

全新的境界。

New level.

好了，咱们继续说。

Anyway, come back to us.

对。

Yeah.

从机械角度来说，我不信这个说法。

Mechanically, I I I don't buy it.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得他是想好好说明这一点

I think he tried to I think he tried to really like illustrate this

我也这么觉得。

I think so.

他接着说。

Well, he continues.

他说，后来我又笑了，想到那些分析师们，他们得向客户解释，为什么自己给出的买入建议里用了那么高的估值倍数。

He says, then I laughed some more when I thought of all those analysts who had who had to justify that their multiple that their that the that multiple in their buy recommendations to clients.

不过，高盛做起来就简单多了。

It was easy for Goldman Sachs, however.

它直接预测，到2030年收入会增长25倍。

It simply forecasted revenues to rise 25 fold by 2030.

这让我想不通，他们为啥不干脆预测增长50倍，或者四年里销售额翻一百倍呢？

It makes me wonder why they didn't push for 50 fold or why not sales up to a 100 times in four years.

SpaceX本来可以多融一倍甚至四倍的钱。

SpaceX could have raised double or quadrupled the money.

毕竟，这次IPO的认购倍数至少是三倍以上。

After all, the IPO offering was at least three times oversubscribed.

到了周五，开盘时股价就涨了11%。

And on Friday, trading opened with the stock up 11%.

一个理智的人——排除那些有利益冲突的全球投行和跟风炒币、炒元宇宙、炒 marijuana 或 AI 的散户——会怎么给SpaceX估值呢？

How might a sensible person, which excludes conflicted global bankers and meme investors who jump on anything from marijuana to the metaverse to Bitcoin and AI value SpaceX then?

说实话，我完全想不通。

Frankly, I haven't a clue.

这人写的东西简直不像篇文章。

This guy's writing like the most non article.

我的意思是，我实在搞不懂，怎么有人能得出当前这种估值，也不是说SpaceX的核心业务——发射和卫星通信，还有人工智能——的前景现在就完全是空想。

By which I mean I have no idea how anyone can arrive at the current valuation and it's not that the outlook for SpaceX's core launch and satellite communications business as well as artificial intelligence is largely theoretical at this point.

而是说，就算你把预期拉到最疯狂的地步，也远远够不着现在的股价。

It's that even insanely bullish assumptions get me nowhere near the share price.

也许是我想象得还不够大胆。

Perhaps I'm not dreaming big enough.

太空领域的规模，远超我这样的普通投资者习惯分析的范围。

Space is larger than earthling investors such as me are used to analyzing.

不过，我刚读了几周前晨星的研究报告，他们给出的估值是7800亿美元，还不到SpaceX当前市值的一半，但那份报告已经非常乐观了。

Then again, I've just read the Morningstar research report from a couple weeks ago that arrived at a valuation of $780,000,000,000 less than half of SpaceX's market cap, and it was wildly optimistic.

晨星提到，SpaceX在发射成本上有巨大优势，就连相对保守的星链业务，十年内也能实现180亿美元的销售额，利润率高达20%。

Morningstar wrote of prodigious cost advantages in launch, reaching 18,000,000,000 in sales within a decade at 20% margins for even the more sensible Starlink business.

未来十年，他们预计年均增长可达数百亿甚至上千亿美元，运营利润率甚至可能超过75%。

Tens, not necessarily hundreds of billions of dollars in annual growth over the coming decade are penciled in at operating margins potentially exceeding 75%.

星链真是个了不起的电信业务。

What a fantastic telecom business Starlink is truly.

但话说回来，当涉及的金额达到万亿级别时，你当然得有超乎寻常的突破才行。

But of course, when you're dealing with trillions, need to be, you know, the most exceptional.

在他们设想的月球任务场景里，那些0和1 somehow 能穿越太阳辐射的猛烈冲击，顺利抵达目的地。

In their moon shot scenario, ones and zeros somehow arrive, somehow survive the battering from solar radiation.

相比地球上的数据中心，SpaceX在成本上有明显优势，而且他们还能拿下人工智能基础设施算力市场预测份额的五分之一。

There are meaningful cost advantages over data centers on Earth and SpaceX wins a fifth of the forecast market for AI infrastructure computing capacity.

最坏的情况下，它只是个失败项目，产能只有4%。

In a worst case scenario, it's a dud with a base case 4% of capacity.

而这种情况发生的概率是50%。

The latter is given a 50% chance of happening.

失败的可能性有43%，至于登月式的设想，那只是个渺茫的希望。

Failure has a 43% waiting and the moonshot scenario, the rump.

但即便只有7%的概率，也能为整体估值增加930亿美元。

But even that 7% chance adds $93,000,000,000 to the overall valuation Whole

一堆胡言乱语。

lot of mumbo jumbo.

一大堆胡言乱语。

Whole lot of mumbo jumbo.

你根本不信这套。

You're not buying.

这其实是几个很棒的业务的集合。

It's a collection of some great businesses.

是的

Yeah.

一些很有潜力的企业。

Some businesses that have a lot of potential.

这种估值，世界上只有一个人能做到。

It is valuation that only one man on earth can achieve.

是的

Yeah.

如果你打算让公司上市，那就得去纽约证券交易所。他这么做，确实不错。

And he's Well, done if you're trying to take your company public, you gotta do it on the New York Stock Exchange.

想改变世界？

Wanna change the world?

去纽约证券交易所融资吧。

Raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange.

还有更多类似的帖子。

There's a whole bunch more posts.

官方认证的世界首位万亿美元富豪。

A post officially the first trillionaire in the entire world in USD terms.

有人提到，由于恶性通货膨胀，其他国家用不同货币计算的话，其实出现过很多万亿富翁。

Someone said that there because of hyperinflation, there have been many trillionaires in other countries denominated in other foreign currencies.

我觉得津巴布韦就是其中之一。

I think Zimbabwe is one among them.

还有德国的帝国马克，曾经也出现过这种情况。对。

Potentially, the German Reichsmark at one point Yeah.

有可能造就一位万亿富翁。

Minted a trillionaire potentially.

不过

But

我想展示一下 Founders Fund 发的这条帖子

I wanted to pull up this post from Founders Fund

对。

Yes.

因为这让我特别受鼓舞。

Because it was so inspiring for me.

他们今天早上发了这条动态，说普通人其实也可以选择变得不平凡。

They posted this this morning and they said it is possible for ordinary people to choose to be extraordinary.

我一直觉得埃隆就是一个再普通不过的人。

And I've always just seen Elon as such a normal, ordinary guy.

对吧？

Right?

他就跟普通人一模一样。

Like he's just like an ordinary guy.

他不是。

He's not

他过去这么多年一直都挺普通的。

and so had been ordinary for the last

但三十年前、四十年前，他可不是这样。

twenty years, but he was he was thirty years ago, forty years ago.

他就像是个做了不错生意、最后成功上市的SaaS创始人。

Like he was like he was like a SaaS founder with like a a decent business that sold and IPO'd.

就像当今时代那种优秀的独角兽创始人。

Like, he was like a good unicorn founder of today.

是的。

Yeah.

但我并不觉得当今那些优秀的独角兽创始人是普通人。

And I don't view good unicorn founders of today as ordinary people.

明白了。

Okay.

回到之前说的

Go back to

每次见到他们，几乎都至少在两三个方面特别出色。

Like almost every time you meet them, they're elite on like a couple dimensions.

哦，原来如此。

Oh, okay.

所以我的观点是，无论在人生的哪个阶段，你见到埃隆都不会觉得他是个普通人。

And so my argument is that like Elon was on at no point in his life would you have met him and thought, yeah, it's just an average Joe.

普通人的意思？

Ordinary guy?

他就是个普通人。

He's an ordinary guy.

我不确定。

I don't know.

我想给FF那边的朋友发个消息，开个玩笑。

Think I texting our friends over at FF poking a little fun at this.

我说，埃隆·马斯克就是个特别普通的人。

I said, Elon Musk is a very ordinary guy.

这给了我灵感。

This inspired me.

所以

So

我不确定。

don't know.

这里有

There is

他的平凡之处其实很多。

a lot of ordinariness in

你知道什么不普通吗？

You know what's not ordinary?

他的戴亚布罗业务。

His Diablo business.

FF的投资，没错。

FF's investment Yeah.

两千万美元，估值二十亿美元，投进了

Of $20,000,000 at a $200,000,000 valuation into

对。

Yeah.

SpaceX，是的。

SpaceX Yeah.

确实被稀释了，是的。

Did get diluted Yeah.

但还是占53%。

But it is still 53.

想想看，这可能是有史以来最棒的风险投资，等等。

Think like the best venture investment of all wait.

不对。

No.

我还以为是50%来着？

I thought it was more like it's 50?

我以为是80%左右。

I thought it was more like 80.

80%？

80?

我觉得差不多是八万亿美分。

I think it's closer to 8000000000000¢.

我觉得他们赚了八万亿美分。

I think I think they made 8000000000000¢.

明白了。

Got it.

八万亿。

8,000,000,000,000

美分。

pennies.

PT需要一场胜利。

PT needed a win.

回报率是多少个基点？

What was the return in basis points?

他需要一场胜利。

He needed a win.

他需要一场胜利，因为据说当时回报率是多少个基点？

Needed a win because apparently What was the return in basis points?

本来可以跟他在线下棋的。

Could have with him on chess.com.

你看过这个吗？

Have you seen this?

哦，看过了。

Oh, yeah.

咱们得放这个视频吗？

Do we need to play this?

咱们得放一段视频，是一个人在Instagram上找到彼得·蒂尔的Chess.com账号，跟他对弈并赢了。

We need to play the video of a gentleman on Instagram who found Peter Thiel's chess.com account, played him, and won

你把视频调出来了吗？

Do you have the video pulled up?

播放。

Lap.