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你正在观看TVPN。
You're watching TVPN.
今天是星期一，2026年3月30日。
Today is Monday, 03/30/2026.
我们正在TVPN超穹顶现场直播。
We are live from the TVPN UltraDome.
科技的圣殿，金融的堡垒，资本的中心。
The temple of technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital.
让我来给你讲讲ramp.com，宝贝。
Let me tell you about ramp.com, baby.
那就是钱。
That is money.
把这两句话都说一遍。
Say both of these.
在同一个地方使用公司信用卡、账单支付、会计功能以及更多其他功能。
Use corporate cards, bill pay accounting, and a whole lot more all in one place.
我们来看一下线性节目单。
Let's pull up the linear lineup.
我们有赵金即将上线，为我们带来英伟达的最新动态。
We got Tae Kim coming on to give us the Nvidia update.
他当然是Key Context通讯的创始人。
He is, of course, the founder of Key Context, the substack.
来自红点资本的洛根·巴特利特也将上线。
Logan Bartlett's coming on from Redpoint.
我们已经太久没请他来了。
Been way too long since we had him on.
到现在可能已经超过一年了，差不多快一年了，但他每次带来的市场更新、幻灯片和分析都堪称一流。
Been probably over a year at this point, maybe nearly a year, but he drops one of the greatest market updates, slide decks, analyses.
非常非常出色。
Very, very good.
里面有很多非常有趣的细节。
Tons of really interesting tidbits in there.
然后我们今天还有一个精彩的
And then we have a fantastic
这真是个很棒的
It's a great
闪电环节给你。
lightning round for you today.
Linear 当然是现代软件开发的系统。
Linear, of course, is the system for modern software development.
70% 的企业工作空间都在使用 Linear 的智能代理。
70% of enterprise workspace on Linear are using agents.
所以闪电环节，我们请到了来自 Polsia 的本·布罗卡。
So lightning round, we got Ben Broca from Polsia.
萨姆，Granola Yeah 的创始人。
Sam, founder of Granola Yeah.
他们的估值达到十五亿美元。
On their 1 and a half billion dollar valuation.
然后是布雷特·阿德科克。
And then Brett Adcock.
你之前叫他什么绰号来着？
What was your nickname for him again?
谁？
Who?
布雷特·阿德科克。
Brett Adcock.
你给他起过什么绰号吧。
You had some nickname for him.
没有。
No.
对吧？
Right?
没有吧？
No?
没有。
No.
我没有。
I didn't.
是你打的电话。
You called.
你跟他
You're on a
直呼其名。
first name basis.
你就叫他Brett。
You just call him Brett.
Brett。
Brett.
是的。
Yeah.
或者就叫小布。
Or just b.
对。
Yeah.
一个小布。
A b.
这就说得通了。
That makes sense.
AB。
A b.
好的。
Okay.
那这事就有意思了。
Now, this will be interesting.
他上周刚创立了一家NeoLab。
He launched a NeoLab last week.
哦，是的。
Oh, yeah.
没错。
That's right.
没错。
That's right.
所以我们能跟他聊聊这个。
So we're gonna be able to talk to him about that.
模型和硬件。
Models and hardware.
听啊。
Hark.
我听见天使在歌唱。
I hear the angels singing.
还有来自控制台的安德烈也会加入。
And then Andrei from console joining as well.
太棒了。
Fantastic.
期待那一天。
Looking forward to that.
嗯，我一直沉迷于社交媒体诉讼。
Well, I've been addicted to social media lawsuits.
我怎么也看不够这些诉讼。
I cannot get enough of these lawsuits.
我一直在关注它们。
I keep reading about them.
谁在睡觉？
Who's in sleep?
你可能正在对那些律师提起自己的诉讼，是的。
You're potentially filing your own lawsuit against the lawyers Yes.
对，没错。
That Yes.
我们正针对这些社交媒体采取行动。
Were coming after these social media.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
事实上，《华尔街日报》这个周末刊登了一篇关于那位击败了Meta和谷歌的律师的专访。
So there's actually a profile in The Wall Street Journal, in the exchange this weekend, the lawyer who beat Meta and Google.
文章深入介绍了他一些令人上瘾的策略，这些策略正在让全国各地的陪审团感到崩溃。
And it goes into some of his addictive techniques that are are driving jurors crazy across the country.
律师马克·瓦尼尔使用道具。
Attorney Mark Vanir, he uses props.
别闹了。
Come on.
别闹了。
Come on.
只用道具还能做什么别的吗？
What's more to do with props?
他不光用道具，还会用寓言故事来说明情况。
He use he also uses parables.
懂吗？
Okay?
你说什么？
What?
还有寓言故事。
Parables.
暗喻、公理，这类内容他全都用上了。
Metaphors, axioms, all of the above.
他还兼职做传教士，在他和全球最具影响力的科技公司对簿公堂的时候，这一点展露无遗。
He moonlights as a preacher and it shows when he's taking on the world's most powerful companies.
这位65岁的律师本月前往洛杉矶市中心的法院出席他职业生涯中最重大的一场庭审的结案陈词，庭上他引用了一则关于发酵面包的寓言来陈述观点。
The 65 year old came to court in Downtown Los Angeles for closing arguments this month of one of the biggest trials of his career armed with a parable of leavened bread.
这感觉像是一种刻意设计、让人很难抽身离开的事物。
That feels like something that is designed to make it hard to rip yourself away from.
没错。
Exactly.
所以他很清楚，自己需要用一种简单的方式向陪审团证明，Meta旗下的Instagram和谷歌旗下的YouTube都是被刻意设计成令人上瘾的产品，会对青少年造成伤害。
So he knew he needed a simple way to show a jury that Meta's Instagram and Google's YouTube were designed to be addictive and were harmful to young people.
于是这位经验丰富的原告律师
So the veteran plaintiff's lawyer
我们只能说，他65岁了，状态居然这么好。
We just say he looks fantastic for 65.
他确实看着状态很棒。
He does look fantastic.
还有啊，虽然我刚才在开玩笑，但我真的觉得他在做的事很有意义，而且我相信这件事很可能会迎来一个非常好的结果，这点我们之后会详细聊到。
And and I and as much as I'm joking, do think he's doing important work and I do think there's a potentially really good outcome here that we'll that we'll go into.
但我们还是先轻松地聊聊这段事。
But we're still having some fun.
因此，这位来自德克萨斯州的资深原告律师向陪审团展示了两种食品：纸杯蛋糕和玉米饼。
So the veteran so the veteran plaintiff's lawyer from Texas showed them two grocery items, cupcakes and tortillas.
他告诉法庭，社交媒体就像使蛋糕膨胀的泡打粉，加剧了本已脆弱的青少年的困境。
Social media, he told the the courtroom, was like the baking powder that makes a cake rise, exacerbating the struggles of already vulnerable teens.
我们有一个互动者，一个放大器，一个能将其放大到极致的东西，兰尼尔说。
We have an interactor, an amplifier, something that blows it up, Lanier said.
我们这里有一种社交媒体，它专门针对脆弱人群，以破坏性的方式影响他们。
We have here social media that takes the vulnerable and goes after them in destructive ways.
这就像ABC一样简单。
It's as easy as ABC.
因此，他提出的论点是，社交媒体更像纸杯蛋糕，而不是玉米饼。
So he's making the argument that social media is more like cupcakes than tortillas.
两者都含有面粉。
Both contain flour.
两者都富含碳水化合物，但其中一个更大、更蓬松，我想是这样。
Both are carb carbohydrate loaded, but one is bigger than the other or puffier, I suppose.
莱尼尔略带拖音的简单形象，帮助说服了多数陪审员。
The simple image delivered with linear's slight drawl helped convince a majority of jurors.
周三，也就是陪审团审议的第九天，陪审团裁定Meta和YouTube在一项指控其设计应用程序以成瘾且有害于青少年的案件中存在疏忽。
On Wednesday, the ninth day of deliberation, the jury found that Meta and YouTube were negligent in a case that accused the companies of designing their apps to be addictive and harmful to teens.
还有一些关于他提着一大箱文件走进法院的有趣画面。
And there's some interesting images both of him walking into the courthouse with a large box of papers.
显然，那里存在着强烈的反科技情绪。
Clearly, very anti tech movement there.
他说：我拒绝科技。
He's saying, I reject technology.
这不能以数字形式存储。
This cannot be stored digitally.
我用的是纸张。
I'm using paper.
这看起来有点冒险，因为我们对印刷文字已经如此上瘾，以至于我们面临批评。
Which, I don't know, this seems a little bit risky because we've been addicted to the printed word So in the much so that we face criticism Yeah.
来自那些说打印是不必要的观点。
From people that said, hey, printing is unnecessary.
确实如此。
It did.
你是对的。
You're Yeah.
不环保，但是
Not environmentally friendly, but
我们被迫做出调整。
And we were forced to adjust.
也许他可以在我们受到攻击时转而成为我们的辩护律师。
Maybe he can flip over to to be our defense attorney when we are attacked.
有一幅法庭素描显示莱纳尔在质询前TBPN嘉宾、Instagram负责人亚当·奥斯里。
There is a there's a courtroom sketch showing linear questioning former TBPN guest, Adam Osseri, the head of Meta's Instagram.
陪审团裁定该公司分别支付300万美元的补偿性赔偿和300万美元的惩罚性赔偿。
A jury ordered the company to pay $3,000,000 each in compensatory damages and 3,000,000 in punitive damages.
所以我算下来两家公司总共要赔600万，赔偿分补偿性损害赔偿金和惩罚性损害赔偿金两部分。
So I think it's 6,000,000 across both firms, but it's split, compensatory and punitive damages.
本案中一位现年20岁、姓氏被隐去的名为凯莉的女性，曾出庭作证称，她从孩童时期就开始使用社交媒体，这不仅多年来彻底占据了她的生活，还诱发了多种心理健康问题，包括焦虑症、抑郁症以及躯体变形障碍。
And now a now 20 year old woman named Kaylee, whose last name was redacted in the case, She had testified that social media use that started when she was a child dominated her life for years and contributed to mental health issues, including anxiety, depression, and body dysmorphia.
实在是太令人难过了。
Very, very sad situation.
对她来说，这当然太不幸了。
Very unfortunate for her, of course.
Meta在一份声明中表示，不认同该裁决结果，并计划提起上诉。将青少年心理健康这类复杂问题归咎于单一诱因存在风险，可能会导致如今青少年面临的诸多更广泛的问题无法得到解决。
In a statement, Meta said it disagrees with the verdict and plans to pursue an appeal reducing something as complex as teen mental health to a single cause risk, risks leaving the many broader issues teens face today unaddressed.
这两种观点并非互斥，但当然，Meta采取这一立场是合乎情理的。
Not mutually exclusive, but of course, that is a reasonable position for Meta to take.
谷歌也发布了一份声明。
Google also put out a statement.
你怎么看？
What do think?
他们说，我们根本不是一家社交媒体公司。
They're like, we're not even a social media company.
我们是一家VR公司。
We're a VR company.
不是。
No.
不是。
No.
不是。
No.
谷歌说：哦，是的。
Google said Oh, yeah.
误解了YouTube，它是一个负责任构建的流媒体平台，而不是社交媒体网站。
Misunderstands YouTube which is respond which is a responsibly built streaming platform, not a social media site.
这没错。
That's true.
找错人了吧。
Got the wrong guy.
对。
Yeah.
我确实一直把YouTube归为和社交媒体同个领域的平台——任何人都能在上面发布内容。
I've I I think of of YouTube very much as as in the same world as social media anyone can post.
但它严重缺失了那些主流社交媒体平台具备的功能，比如你要是真的成为一名创作者开始在YouTube更新内容，就会发现上面有种说不清道不明的感觉，好像有一群既得利益者把持着圈子。
But it is severely lacking in some of the greatest features of that social media sites like you if you when you when you actually become a YouTuber, you start putting out content that like there is sort of a I don't know, like a group of made men on YouTube.
就比如那些已经发展起来的创作者，他们现在开始专职制作内容，还会互相交流，甚至可能对彼此的内容做出回应互动。
Like, people that have that have ascended and they now have they they're now making content, like, professionally and they are in conversation with each other and they might be reacting to each other's content.
当然，平台上存在各式各样的社群。
Of course, there are different communities.
比如汽车领域的YouTube博主社群，
There's like the car YouTuber community.
还有你知道的，游戏竞技类的创作者社群，以及商业领域的创作者社群。
And then there's the the, you know, the game show community and there's the business community.
很快，大家就彼此熟悉了。
And pretty quickly, everyone sort of gets to know each other.
但没有私信功能。
But there's no DM feature.
所以即使我制作了一个视频
So even if I make a video
这恰恰是它不是社交媒体的一个好论点。
Which is a which is a good argument for it
不是社交媒体。
Not being social media.
不应该是社交媒体。
To be not being a social media.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
所以，你知道的，到目前为止我们做了Colin和Samir的节目，但我们真的没有一种方式。
So like, you know, we at this point have done the Colin and Samir show, but we don't really have a way.
我们可以去Colin和Samir的YouTube频道留言，如果是从TPVN账号发的，他们可能会看到，但我们无法直接给他们发私信，让消息置顶在收件箱顶部。
We can go on to the Colin and Samir YouTube channel and leave them a comment, and they might see it if it's from the TVPN account, but we can't, like, just DM them and be surfaced to the top of the inbox.
人们一直希望YouTube能有个收件箱功能。
People have always wanted an inbox on YouTube.
是的。
Yeah.
这是一个非常重要的功能需求。
That's a huge feature request.
这太荒谬了，因为如果能知道有人私信了我，而这个人有十万粉丝，我点开他的个人资料，发现他和我属于同一个领域，那该多棒。
It's insane because, like, it would be so cool to see to be able to see, okay, I got a DM from someone who has a 100,000 followers and I can click on their profile and see, oh, they're like, you know, in the same niche.
也许我们想合作。
Like, maybe we'd want to work together.
也许我们想一起拍个视频或做点别的，因为他们是已经成名的YouTuber，而不是每个人都得转到Twitter或X上去发私信，因为那里的私信功能成熟得多。
Maybe we want to collab on a video or do something else because they're like an established YouTuber as opposed to everyone basically needs to flow over to Twitter or X and then DM there because the the DM functionality is much more mature on on
谷歌在这一领域拥有的另一个优势是，YouTube上的观看时长有很大一部分发生在电视上。
The other thing Google has in the in in this kind of position is that so much of the watch time on YouTube is happening on television.
是的。
Oh, yeah.
大约有50%。
Something like 50%.
没错。
Yep.
非常不同。
Very different.
因此他们可以辩称，这只不过是现代的
So they can make the argument that this is just modern
没错。
Yep.
电视。
Television.
是的。
Yep.
让我们来梳理一下兰尼尔的职业生涯，因为《华尔街日报》这里有一些有趣的背景信息。
So let's go through Lanier's career because The Wall Street Journal has some interesting backstory here.
他说，兰尼尔一直致力于代表原告对抗大型企业，并因此建立了事业和财富。
He says Lanier has built a career and fortune representing plaintiffs against corporate giants.
他曾赢得一起针对制药公司默克的早期重大过失致死案，该案指控处方抗炎药Vioxx导致心脏问题。
He won one of the first major wrongful death trials against pharma company Merck over claims that the prescription anti inflammatory drug Vioxx caused heart problems.
他还于2018年赢得了一项46.9亿美元的判决，涉及声称使用被石棉污染的爽身粉导致卵巢癌的女性及其家属。
He also won a $4,690,000,000 verdict in 2018 for women and their families who said asbestos tainted talcum powder caused ovarian cancer.
所以，纵观他的职业生涯，他似乎做了许多非常出色的工作，并在针对生产广泛有害产品的大型企业时赢得了巨额赔偿。
So, I mean, over his career, it seems like he's done some very, very good work and has won some massive, massive settlements against big companies with broadly damaging products.
因此，他的职业生涯中有许多值得钦佩之处。
So a lot to admire about his career here.
这场社交媒体诉讼引发的关注超出了他去年秋天加入原告团队前的预期，他也因此直面了Meta首席执行官马克·扎克伯格。
The social media trial drew more scrutiny than he predicted before he joined the plaintiffs team last fall and was brought face to face with Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg.
突然间，莱尼尔置身于事件的核心
Suddenly, Lanier was at the epic
我相信这张照片里的扎克伯格正在发出喵喵声。
I believe that Zuck is actually mewing in this picture.
如果我们能调出这张图片的话。
If we can pull up this this image.
这确实看起来像是那么回事。
It does appear to be something along those lines.
突然间，莱尼尔置身于事件的中心
Suddenly, Lanier was at the epicenter
你说呢，泰勒。
You agree, Tyler.
对吧？
Right?
你可以看出他的皮质醇水平并没有飙升。
You can tell his cortisol is not spiking here.
没错。
That's true.
他确实看起来很冷静、从容。
That definitely seems he seems calm, collected.
但这不是他第一次穿西装。
But this is not his first time putting on a suit.
这也不是他第一次上法庭。
This is not the first time he's been in court.
突然间，莱尼尔成为了关于社交媒体的广泛公众辩论的中心，这场辩论聚焦于人们如何在提供近乎无限内容并由算法推荐的平台上保持联系或彼此疏离。
Suddenly, Lanier was at the epicenter of a broad public debate about social media and how people stay connected or are disconnected on platforms offering nearly endless content curated by algorithms.
莱尼尔在回顾这场审判引发的关注时说：‘这根本无法相提并论’，当时他正在洛杉矶市中心一家酒店里，享用着燕麦吐司和零度可乐，那是胜利后的第二天早晨。
Quote, nothing compared to this, Lanier said, reflecting on the attention to the trial over oatmeal toast and a Coke Zero in Downtown Los Angeles hotel in a Downtown Los Angeles hotel the morning after the victory.
完全没法比，我觉得这很准确，因为尽管之前的和解金额巨大，但它们并未真正引发广泛关注，没有达到让我清晰记住的程度。
Nothing even remotely close, I think that's accurate because even though those previous settlements were huge, they weren't major they didn't break through to the point where, like, I remember them vividly.
你记得吗？
Do you?
不。
No.
不。
No.
万络？
Vioxx?
听起来没什么印象。
It it does not ring a bell.
但这件事肯定会让很多人，尤其是科技圈的人印象深刻。
But this certainly will for a lot of people, especially in tech.
社交媒体公司很大程度上受到1996年《通信规范法》第230条的保护，免于对平台上第三方内容承担法律责任。
Social media companies have largely been shielded from being held liable for third party content on their platforms by section two thirty of the 1996 Communications Decency Act.
在庭审中，莱尼尔不得不聚焦于平台的功能，而非具体内容来构建案件。
At trial, Lanier had to focus on the platform's features, not the content to make a case.
这正是我今天想讨论的内容，也是我在通讯简报中写过的。
That's something that I want to talk about today and I wrote about in the newsletter.
这场审判是众多合并诉讼中的首案之一，这些诉讼由青少年、学区和各州检察官针对Meta、YouTube、TikTok和Snap提起，今年还会有更多此类案件开庭审理。
The trial was the first among the first among thousands of consolidated lawsuits filed by teenagers, school districts, and state attorneys against Meta, YouTube, TikTok, and Snap, more are scheduled for this year.
TikTok和Snap已经就这起案件，也就是这第一起案件达成了和解。
TikTok and Snap settled the case, settled the first case.
他是一名基督徒，会在福音派教会给多达500人讲授圣经学习课程。
A Christian who teaches bible study classes to as many as 500 people in evangelical church.
拉尼尔在庭审中展现出亲和接地气的法庭风格，这种风格是他数十年来的诉讼工作打磨而成的——他起初在德克萨斯州执业，如今业务遍及全美。
Lanier turns a folksy courtroom demeanor honed over decades of trial work, first in Texas, now nationally.
他以在庭审中向陪审员展示手绘路线图和投影在投影仪上的示意图而闻名，用这些材料引导他们理解他的法律推理和证据，这些图里的路标和小人儿画得甚至像小孩的涂鸦。
He's known for showing jurors hand drawn road maps and illustrations on an overhead projector to guide them through his legal reasoning and evidence, including signposts and human figures that could have been sketched by a child.
为了让大家直观理解滑石粉里的石棉纤维有多微小，他把一捆干草搬进了法庭，还把一根针丢进草叶里。
To visualize microscopic asbestos fibers in talcum powder, He bought he brought a bale of hay into a courtroom and dropped a needle into the blades.
丢进草叶里？
Into the blades?
就是草的叶片里。
The blades of grass.
哦，干草的叶子。
Oh, blades of hay.
明白了。
Got it.
好的。
Okay.
哇。
Wow.
非常非常有趣。
Very, very interesting.
是的。
He yeah.
他喜欢用道具。
He he he likes he likes props.
就是这样。
That's it.
在针对科技公司兰尼尔寻求惩罚性赔偿时，他指出
When arguing for punitive damages against the tech company Lanier held
举起了一罐极具成瘾性的东西。
up Quite a jar addictive.
这是一个很好的观点。
Of this is a good point.
所以他举起了一罐415个M，以说明10亿美元的罚款仅占Alphabet公司4150亿美元股东权益的一小部分。
So he he held up a jar of 415 and m's to show how a $1,000,000,000 fine would be a fraction of Alphabet's 415,000,000,000 in shareholder equity.
他需要一张更大的图表，因为我觉得现在每家科技公司的规模都大了五倍。
He needs a bigger chart because I think every tech company is five times larger now.
他说他尽量避免自己过于张扬。
He says he tries to avoid being flashy himself.
他在庭审期间轮流穿着同两套不起眼的西装，然后我就把它们烧掉。
He wears the same two unremarkable suits on rotation during a trial, and then I go burn them.
什么？
What?
他审判完就把西装烧了？
He burns his suits after?
这是个笑话吗？还是他把西装送人了？
Is that a joke or he gives them away?
我不知道。
I don't know.
我的工作完成了？
My work here is done?
我想是吧。
I guess.
退休吗？
Retire it?
我不知道。
I don't know.
这很奇怪。
It's odd.
拉尼尔20岁就从大学毕业了，在进入得克萨斯理工大学法学院之前，他曾接受过牧师培训，当时他希望能赚足够的钱来支撑自己的传道事业。
Lanier graduated from college at 20 and is trained as a minister before going to law school at Texas Tech University, hoping to make enough money to support his preaching.
当时石棉相关案件正席卷美国法院系统，他也在那个时期作为律师声名鹊起。
He began gaining renown as a lawyer in an era when asbestos cases were swamping The US course.
1998年，他为21名因使用含石棉的机械设备而患病的钢铁工人，赢得了约1.15亿美元的陪审团赔偿金。
He won a jury verdict of about 115,000,000 in 1998 for 21 steel workers who fell ill after using machinery that contained asbestos.
拉尼尔和他的妻子贝基是在高中的辩论课上相识的。
Lanier and his wife, Becky, will met in high school debate class.
他们有5个孩子和12个孙辈。
They have five children and 12 grandchildren.
哇哦。
Wow.
这可真是一夜成名啊。
Overnight success.
多年来，他们一直因在休斯顿附近那处占地超过35英亩的庄园里举办适合亲子参加的圣诞派对而为人熟知，那座庄园里还有一条能容纳120人的模型铁路。
They were known for years for their child friendly Christmas parties at their estate of more than 35 acres near Houston which has a model railroad that can seat a 120 people.
好的。
Okay.
这家伙必须赢。
This guy's got to win.
我已经完全改变了我的立场。
I have completely changed my position here.
我需要一篇豪宅版的文章。
I need a mansion section article.
顺便说一下，我觉得我们能直接联系到他。
I think we have a direct line to him, by the way.
好的。
Okay.
我们想让他上节目。
We want him on the show.
嗯，也许我们可以直接去那里做一期节目
Well, like this is Maybe we should go do a show from
是的。
Yes.
这个
The
从模型火车上。
from the model train.
是的。
Yes.
我非常准备好接受他的观点了。
I'm I'm so ready to be convinced of his position.
我写了一整篇文章，说我不认同这个结果，但他正在说服我。
I I I wrote a whole piece about how I disagree with the result but he's winning me over.
你不同意整个论点，却认同这种生活态度。
Disagree with this entire argument but you're agreeing with this approach to life.
是的。
Yes.
100%
100%.
100%
100%.
我觉得我们是志同道合的人。
I feel like we're kindred spirits.
太棒了。
It's amazing.
所以这个模型铁路能识别120个人，你猜怎么着？
So the model railroad can see a 120 people and guess what?
他养了一大堆动物。
He's got a menagerie.
就是这样。
There we go.
这太珍贵了。
This is gold.
你的人生需要最大化地拥有各种动物。
You need to be menagerie maxing in life.
你需要一个动物收藏。
You need a menagerie.
他那里有狐猴
His contains lemurs
就是这样。
There we go.
还有骆马。
And llamas.
就是这样。
There we go.
狐猴和骆马。
Lemurs and llamas.
谢谢。
Thank you.
这太不可思议了。
This is incredible.
他说，这个派对邀请了多达9000名宾客和表演者，包括麦莉·赛勒斯、约翰尼·卡什和多莉·帕顿，但家人最终取消了，因为对草坪伤害太大。
The family pulled the plug on the party which featured up to 9,000 guests and performers including Miley Cyrus, Johnny Cash and Dolly Parton, he said because it was too hard on the lawn.
这人太在乎他的草坪了。
The guy cares about his grass too much.
这太不可思议了。
This is incredible.
邀请9000人
Inviting 9,000
他是个环保主义者。
He's an environmentalist.
来自社区。
From the community.
我的意思是，这简直相当于整个城市的人了，我的意思是，休斯顿是个大城市，但这么多人，真是社区的中流砥柱。
I mean, that's like the entire I mean, Houston's a huge city, but that's like that is so so what a pillar of the community.
这人真是个英雄。
This guy's a hero.
兰尼尔说，他起诉大公司的案件主题是责任与诚信，或缺乏这些品质。
Lanier said, The theme of his cases against major corporations is responsibility and integrity or lack of it.
科技亿万富翁并不需要他的帮助，兰尼尔说，但凯莉不会选择别人。
Tech billionaires don't need his help, Lanier said, but Kaylee would not have anybody else.
信仰也是如此。
Faith is much the same way.
上帝在那里，试图帮助那些需要帮助的人。
God's there to try to help people who need the help.
兰尼尔的两个女儿，都是律师，在审判期间一直陪在他身边。
Two of Lanier's daughters who are lawyers were by his side during the trial.
他参与了这场社交媒体案件。
He joined the social media case
对了，你一直提到‘线性’。
By the way, you keep saying linear.
是线性的还是线性的？
Is it linear or linear?
线性的。
Linear.
线性的。
Linear.
线性的。
Linear.
线性的。
Linear.
线性的。
Linear.
我觉得是线性的。
I I think it's linear.
好吧，我们会弄清楚的。
Well, we'll figure it out.
他具有深刻的真诚。
He has deep authenticity.
你不希望
You don't want
人们因为现代谈话相关的系统而感到困惑。
people to get confused with the system for modern talk stuff.
是的。
Yes.
这不是线性的。
It's not linear.
我认为它是线性的。
It's linear, I think.
也许这是兰尼尔。
Maybe it's Lanier.
也许这是法语的。
Maybe it's French.
他不是个弄虚作假的人。
He's not a phony.
他所做的一切都不是在作秀。
What he does is not a performance.
甚至他身在洛杉矶的时候，还会在YouTube上发布自拍短视频，讲解圣经段落。
Even from even from Los Angeles, he posted short video selfies discussing bible passages on YouTube.
所以他在亲身试用他提起诉讼所针对的那个平台的产品。
So he's dogfooding, the thing that he's suing.
对。
Yeah.
我们换个话题，聊聊你的项目吧。
Let's switch gears to your piece.
接下来我会先向大家介绍Shopify，之后再阐述我的反方论点。
I will take you through my counter argument, but first I'll tell you Shopify.
Shopify是一个可伴随您的业务共同成长的电商平台，支持您随时随地完成销售——可在线上、门店、移动端、社交平台、各类电商集市开展销售，如今还新增了人工智能代理功能。
Shopify is the commerce platform that grows with your business and lets you sell in seconds online, in store, on mobile, on social, on marketplaces, and now with AI agents.
另外，我也想给大家介绍一下Gemini。
And let me also tell you about Gemini.
Gemini 3.1 Pro现已推出，基础性能得到了全面提升。
Gemini 3.1 Pro is here with a more capable baseline.
它非常适合处理超复杂的任务，比如将晦涩的概念可视化、把多组数据整合到单一视图中，或是让创意项目落地成型。
It's great for super complex tasks like visualizing difficult concepts, synthesizing data into a single view, or bringing creative projects to life.
上周，布兰登·格雷尔对这项裁决做出了如下总结。
So last week, Brandon Guerrell summarized the ruling this way.
他提到，在这起案件中，原告的律师马克·拉尼尔辩称，Meta和YouTube打造了“数字赌场”，它们所采用的神经生物学手段，和老虎机使用的技术如出一辙。
He said, In the case, the plaintiff's lawyer, Mark Lanier, argued that Meta and YouTube built digital casinos that used neurobiological techniques similar to those employed by slot machines.
陪审团最终认定，Meta和YouTube平台上的特定功能在设计上就具备成瘾性。
The jury found that specific features of Meta and YouTube are designed to be addictive.
我希望大家能把注意力聚焦在这些功能上。
And I want you to really hone in on these features.
比如说无限滚动功能，它营造出了一个不存在自然停止节点的浏览环境。
So infinite scroll creates an environment where there are no natural stopping points.
算法推荐推送会不断向用户展示高参与度的内容。
Algorithmic recommendation feeds use highly users highly engaging content.
这类信息流的算法推荐机制，会持续向用户推送高吸引力的内容。
Feeds algorithmic recommendations, feeds users highly engaging content.
自动播放功能剥夺了用户自主选择是否观看下一个视频的决定权。
Auto play removes users' agency in choosing whether to watch the next video.
通知功能则通过利用用户对认同感的需求，将用户重新拉回平台。
Notifications pull users back in by exploiting their need for validation.
Instagram的美颜滤镜加剧了原告的身体变形障碍，而点赞按钮这类功能则利用了用户渴望获得社会认可的生理需求。
IG beauty filters contribute to the plaintiff's body dysmorphia and features like the like button exploit users biological need for social approval.
好的。
Okay.
所以你看，这里涉及到一大堆功能机制。
So you got a bunch of features.
这些情况你肯定都了解。
You know this stuff.
展开剩余字幕（还有 480 条）
每个人都在使用社交媒体。
You everyone uses social media.
我们都了解这些东西。
We all know about this stuff.
问题是，这些功能是成瘾的，还是内容本身成瘾？因为社交媒体平台当然对平台上发布的内容免责。
The question is like is are the features addictive or is the content addictive because social media platforms are of course protected from the content that is posted on
兰尼尔的整个论点都基于这些功能。
Lanier's entire Lanier's entire argument is predicated on it being the features.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yes.
是这些功能。
The features.
而且确实如此。
And Yeah.
所以呢，你也知道，我们之前采访过圣克拉拉大学法学院的埃里克·戈德曼，他说现在虽然只是达成了600万美元的和解，但这件事后续的影响可能会非常大。
So the so, you know, we talked to Eric Goldman from Santa Clara University of Law and he was saying that like, yes, it's $6,000,000 settlement right now, but this is this could be huge.
他原话是这么说的：这甚至会决定未来我们还会不会有社交媒体这种东西存在。
The direct quote was whether we will even have social media in the future.
也就是说这件事可能攸关社交媒体的存亡。
Like this could be existential.
对。
Yeah.
而且还有成千上万起类似的事件正在慢慢发酵。
And and there's thousands of other cases like this kind of percolating.
没错。
Yep.
对吧？
Right?
所以说……他们就有可能
And so And they could
可能会演变成集体诉讼。
turn into a class action.
他之前已经拿到过60亿美元。
He's gotten 6,000,000,000 before.
他可能拿到500亿美元。
He could get 50,000,000,000.
我不确定。
I don't know.
他可能拿到很多钱。
He could get a lot.
他不是那种只拿600万美元的人。
And he's not like, 6,000,000 is he's not a 6,000,000 guy.
他是拿60亿美元的人。
He's a 6,000,000,000 guy.
所以这是前兆，而且情况还会进一步发展。
And so this is the precursor, and it's going further.
不管是一大堆零散的诉讼还是一桩集体大案，这对那些公司来说都是个大麻烦，是的。
And whether it's a ton of different cases or one big one, like, it's a big problem for Yeah.
那些科技公司。
The tech companies.
所以我觉得上周索拉（Sora）关停的时候，我们刚好经历了一场我所说的、针对这些功能的“安慰剂对照试验”，这实在是个奇怪的巧合。
So I thought it was an odd coincidence that we sort of had what I called the placebo controlled trial for these exact features last week when Sora shut down.
也就是那个刚起步的社交平台Open Eyes旗下的索拉，它关停了。
So Open Eyes, nascent social network Sora shut down.
外界对此事的反应看着挺有意思的，很多人都说，对，我早就说了这东西一直都很差劲。
The reaction of the news was funny to watch because a lot of people were like, yeah, I told you it was always bad.
但这东西刚推出的时候，大家的反应完全是反过来的。
But when it launched, it was exactly the opposite.
所有人都在说，它做得太棒了。
Everyone was like, it's too good.
我们没法……它看着就很简单
We won't be able It's look simply
太好了。
too good.
simply 太好了。
Simply too good.
鲁恩对这一点总结得非常好，我想是昨天，或者我记得是昨天。
And Rune summarized this pretty well, think, yesterday or I think it was yesterday.
他说，Sora 是道德恐慌的巅峰。
He said, Sora was peak moral panic.
所有那些关于制作会让人上瘾、浪费所有人时间的视频的激动言论。
All of these breathless takes about making videos that are going to addict humanity and waste everyone's time.
与此同时，我们制作了一些搞笑视频，但随着时间推移，它们变得不那么好笑了，而 AI 糟粕只是 Instagram 快拍中众多类别之一。
Meanwhile, we made some funny videos that were less funny as time went on and AI slop is just one category among many on Instagram Reels.
别太担心制作那些会让人脑洞大开的视频，而根本不去关心是否做出了真正优质的内容。
Don't worry so much about making videos that are going to blow up people's brains without making anything good at without worry worry about making anything good at all.
最好的 Sora 视频与最好的快拍不相上下，其幽默感很大程度上依赖于创作者的嗓音。
The best sores were up there with the best reels and the humor relied significantly on the voice of the creator.
我完全同意。
I completely agree.
那些有趣的视频，我……
The the funny sores that I
是的。
Yeah.
就连我们上周播放的那只在门廊上的猫的视频。
Even the video we played last week of the cat on the porch.
对。
Yes.
那不是‘是的’。
That wasn't Yeah.
一个，那
One The
提示不是要制作能留住用户的内容。
prompt was not make something that will retain users.
而且这根本不会有趣，是的。
And it wouldn't have been funny Yeah.
如果那个人没有像场景中那样不断升级的话，那就完全不会好笑。
If the person hadn't been escalating like the scene Totally.
每个新提示出来后，大家都会一起为他们欢呼。
Every new prompt and then cheering them together.
是的。
Yeah.
所以他最后说，我知道你们当中有很多人对此 loudly concerned，却根本不更新，依然对人类使用工具的能力持悲观态度。
And so and he closes by saying, I know so many of you who are loudly concerned about this who won't update at all who will remain pessimistic about humans and their ability to use tools.
我说，那么，你怎么看待这两种情况呢？
And I said, So, like, what do you make of these two situations?
这对我来说有点像安慰剂对照试验。
It feels a little bit like a placebo controlled trial to me.
当然，这里还有很多细微差别。
Of course, like, there's a lot more nuance here.
这就像一个高层次的总结。
This is like a high level take.
但Sora确实完全采用了所有社交媒体的最佳实践，或者用更直白的说法，是那些成瘾性且有害的神经生物学技巧。
But Sora absolutely used all of the social media best practices or addictive and harmful neurobiological techniques, if you want to use the course language.
所以我们的应用在用户界面和用户体验设计上，基本和TikTok、Instagram Reels、YouTube Shorts、Snap一模一样。
So our app was basically the same as TikTok, Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts, Snap, in terms of UI and UX design.
它有无限滚动功能。
It had infinite scroll.
它有算法推荐。
It had algorithmic recommendations.
它有通知功能。
It had notifications.
它有点赞按钮。
It had a like button.
它没有Instagram的美颜滤镜，但整个系统本身就是一个滤镜——因为我可以进去说‘让我看起来像健美运动员’，它真的做得很好，我在视频里看起来特别棒。
And it didn't have IG Beauty filters, but like the whole thing is a filter because I could go in there and say make me look like a bodybuilder and it did a good job and I looked great in the videos.
所以它确实把所有这些同类的设计套路都凑齐了——
And so like it is it really checks To all of the same try to
就是为了对标竞品，全都是照着
like match that every It
它毋庸置疑给我带来了严重的身体畸形恐惧症。
gave me crippling body dysmorphia, obviously.
我一直盼着哪天能长得和我的Sora虚拟形象一模一样，就是那个……他们管那叫什么来着？
I I dream for the for the day when I will look like my Sora avatar, my my what what do they call it?
名人定制视频功能？
Cameo?
我的专属出镜形象？
My cameo?
不是的。
No.
但他们确实用上了所有常规的功能工具，这么做一方面是为了让用户眼熟好上手，另一方面也是因为他们推进速度很快，而且这款产品的核心创新点根本就不在于UI设计，也不在于它是竖屏内容、有算法推送流这些点。
But they they really did use all the normal tools and and that was for familiarity but also because they're moving quickly and the key innovation was not the UI design or the fact that it's vertical or algorithmic feeds.
我们现在是2026年。
Like we are in 2026.
我们不是在2014年推出Vine的时候。
We're not in 2014 when we're launching Vine.
所以关键的洞察在于纯AI生成的内容。
So the key insight was purely AI generated content.
但它没有成功。
And it didn't work.
这些功能并不令人上瘾，因为下载Sora的人并没有上瘾，因为内容有点太粗糙了，对吧？
Like the features were not addictive because the people that downloaded Sora did not become addictive because the content was a little bit too sloppy, right?
是的，那只是一种类型的内容。
Yeah, well, it was just one type of content.
没错。
Exactly.
事实证明，人们喜欢多样化的选择，也喜欢变化。
And it turns out people like a broad selection and they like variability.
是的。
Yes.
他们可能想看一段有人滑雪的视频，然后是一个懒人，接着是朋友拍的内容，再是一些健康类内容。
They might want to see a video of someone skiing and then some slob and then something their friend made and then some health content.
真正重要的是这些内容的集合。
And it's really the collection of that.
我认为另一个非常明显的观点是，如果吸引人的是产品本身和功能，那么社交媒体应用应该会有很多，而且会有很多应用真正蓬勃发展。
The other thing I think that seems very obvious is if it was the product itself and the features that were addicting, there would be so many social media there would be so many social media apps that were effectively thriving.
应该会有很多个Instagram。
There would be like a bunch of Instagrams.
而这就是我想提到香烟类比的地方。
And this is where I get to the cigarette comparison.
人们经常把社交媒体和香烟行业做比较，我认为很有必要重新审视一下香烟到底为什么上瘾，因为有些人说这只是口腔习惯，你只是想嘴里含根东西，所以你应该改吃胡萝卜。
So there's a bunch of comparisons to the cigarette industry, and I think it's really worth revisiting like what is addictive about cigarettes because there are some people that say like it's an oral fixation like you just want to put like a stick in your mouth so you should like switch to carrots.
这种说法大概只适用于1%的人。
That is like And and maybe like 1%.
有些人可能会说，这是一种对酷炫形象的上瘾。
Some could argue it's an addiction to looking cool.
说得对。
There you go.
但确实是尼古丁。
But but it is the nicotine.
就是尼古丁。
It is the nicotine.
因此你才会看到多达50种不同的香烟品牌和上千种不同的电子烟品牌。
And that's why you do have a long tail of like 50 different cigarette brands and a thousand different e cigarette brands.
尼古丁口香糖也会让人上瘾。
And nicotine gum is addictive.
尼古丁贴片也会让人上瘾。
Nicotine patches are addictive.
尼古丁贴片也会让人上瘾，因为它们都含有尼古丁。
Nicotine pouches are addictive because they all contain the nicotine.
如果法院要求我们相信点赞按钮和算法推荐流具有成瘾性，那么任何使用这些功能的应用都应产生类似的成瘾效果。
And if the court is asking us to believe that the Like button, the algorithmic feed, that is addictive, then we should see addiction like results from any app that implements that.
是的。
Yeah.
因为这对所有含尼古丁的产品都是如此。
Because that is the case for all nicotine containing products.
它们都会让人上瘾，只是有些形式的成瘾性较低。
They all addict people at mean, there are less addictive formats
这些年你尝试或测试过哪些应用，它们具备这些功能吗？是的。
in How apps have you tried or test flights over the years that had any of these features Yeah.
你只用了三十秒。
That you used for thirty seconds
没错。
Exactly.
没错。
Exactly.
真正让你不断回来的原因是用户创建的内容。
Because what actually keeps you coming back is the content which is created by the users.
而且而且
And And
所以你是想让莱尼尔去追捕每一个在Instagram上发过东西的人，把他们都关进监狱。
so you're at you want Lanier to go after every single person that has ever posted anything on Instagram and jail them.
对吗？
Correct?
不。
No.
不。
No.
我认为有些创作者确实创作了非常吸引人的内容。
I think that some creators do create very compelling content.
其中一些你
Some of that You
想把那些
want to jail the
最棒的创作者关进监狱？
best creator?
不是。
Is no.
其中一些内容非常出色。
Some of that content is amazing.
其中一些内容很棒。
Some of that content is great.
其中一些内容很糟糕。
Some of that content is bad.
范围非常非常广。
There's a very, very wide range.
你可以找到真正出色的教育内容。
You can go to truly amazing educational content.
我在想像Three Blue One Brown这样的数学频道，它在YouTube上用可视化方式讲解数学概念。
I'm thinking of like three Blue One Brown, this math channel that does visualizations of math concepts on YouTube.
这太惊人了。
It's incredible.
安德烈·卡帕西的YouTube视频。
Andrei Karpathy's YouTube videos.
有非常多有趣的历史教育节目和播客。
There's so many interesting educational history shows, podcasts.
有这么多内容，
There's so much content that
是的。
Yeah.
我沉迷于那个视频，《你注定要应对吗？》
Got addicted to that video, Are You Destined to Deal?
总之，他一直
Anyway, he kept
说这是个很棒的视频。
saying That's a great video.
他一直说
He kept saying
这就是为什么你今天打了领带。
why That's why you have a tie on today.
他周五晚上给我打了电话
He he he called me on Friday night
是的。
Yep.
然后问：为什么这个视频有二十个小时长？
And said, why is this video twenty hours long?
因为他一直在循环播放？
Because he was on loop?
是的。
Yeah.
他只是在循环播放。
He was just looping.
这说得通。
That makes sense.
这说得通。
That makes sense.
所以是的。
So yeah.
但我的意思是，这是事实。
But I mean, it is true.
就像我认为法院和兰尼尔都是对的，有些人会在社交媒体上发布令人沮丧的糟糕内容，让看到的人感到压抑。
Like like I think the court is correct and and Lanier is correct that some people go on social media and make horrible content that depresses people that land on it.
毋庸置疑，社交媒体公司有巨大的责任，要负责任地管理推荐算法，将处于困境中的人引导至有益的资源。
And it goes without saying that social media companies do have an enormous responsibility to manage recommendation feeds responsibly and route people in tough situations to helpful resources.
所以谷歌在这方面已经做得非常好。
So Google already does this very, very well.
如果你输入一些看似你正处于心理危机中的关键词，它就不会返回搜索结果。
If you type in specific keywords that seem like you're in a mental health crisis, like, it will not give you search results.
它会直接提供一个可以拨打的电话号码。
It will give you a phone number for someone to call.
它们知道何时将合适的人引导到这个资源。
And they know when to route the right people to that.
我相信所有科技平台都在思考并实施这一措施。
And I do believe that all the tech platforms are thinking about this and implementing this.
也许它们需要更加积极一些。
Maybe they need to be more aggressive.
我认为大多数人能达成共识的一点是家长控制功能，这似乎是一个更容易达成的中间方案。
I think that the big thing that most people can agree on is parental controls here, and I think that that's like a much easier, like, middle ground here.
总的来说，另一个不错的折中方案是让科技公司赋予用户，尤其是家长，更多对自身使用体验的控制权。
And just in general, one other nice meet in the middle option is potentially just, you know, getting tech companies to give users and parents in particular, but users broadly more control over their experience.
通过浏览器插件在移动网页上禁用算法推荐、无限滚动和点赞功能是可能的，但体验会差很多，因为你要在移动网页上加载，而不是使用真正的应用，速度更慢，而且很多功能加载不顺畅、体验很糟糕。
So it's possible to disable algorithmic feeds, endless scroll, the like button with browser plug ins on mobile web, but it's a much worse experience because you have to load on mobile web, which isn't the actual app, and it's slower, and there's a lot of things that are just kind of janky and don't load as well.
但在设置中提供这些选项，比如让一些Instagram创作者关闭点赞计数器。
But having those, like, in the settings to just say, like, I I know some creators on Instagram can turn off the like counter.
你见过这个吗？
Have you ever seen this?
所以当你看到有人发布一张图片时，只会看到一个点赞按钮，而不会显示5000个赞，因为创作者们对‘这个帖子点赞数这么少’感到厌烦。
So you can see someone post a post an image and it and it'll just have a like button there, but it doesn't have, 5,000 likes because the creators were getting, like, you know, annoyed by, oh, this one
但要明确一点，这是因为人们不想发布内容。
Well, to be clear, that's because people didn't want to post Yeah.
因为他们担心内容表现不好。
Because they were worried something wouldn't do well.
是的。
Yeah.
而且全世界都会知道他们的内容不够吸引人之类的。
And and the world would know that their content wasn't engaging or something like that.
对吧？
Right?
所以
So
所以这实际上就是一个激励机制。
So that that was just an that that effectively is just an incentive.
我不认为这是为了创作者的心理健康而做的。
I don't believe that that was done for the mental health of the creators.
不是吗？
No?
这是为了鼓励更多人发帖。
That was done to encourage more people to post.
我不知道。
I don't know.
我不知道。
I don't know.
我的意思是
I mean
我肯定。
I'm sure.
比如，他们说，作为一名社交媒体创作者，在我了解这些数据指标之前，我的心理健康状态达到了前所未有的高峰。
Like, they they they're like, my mental health as a social media creator was at an all time high before I understood the metrics.
因为那时候我就想，哦，300次观看？
Because I was just like, oh, 300 views?
我出名了。
I'm famous.
这太棒了。
This is amazing.
有300个人坐下来观看了我那部长达十分钟、关于一种濒临消亡的虚拟现实技术的视频论文，或者类似的东西。
300 people sat down and watched my ten minute video essay about a dying VR technology or something like that.
我觉得，我做到了。
It's like, I've done it.
有300个人坐下来观看了。
300 people sat down.
我简直就像个商学院教授。
It's like I'm a business school professor, basically.
是吗？
Yeah?
对。
Yeah.
但后来你终于发现，上一个视频有四十万次观看。
But then eventually, you get and you're like, wait, like, the last video got 400,000 views.
为什么这个视频只有三十七万五千次观看？
Why does this one have 375,000 views?
我是个失败者。
I'm a failure.
所以，确实有那么一点这种感觉。
So like, there is a little bit of that.
但我听到
But I but I hear
你。
you.
是的。
Yeah.
但这些数据对创作者来说仍然是可查的，是的。
But the metrics are still available Yeah.
对创作者而言。
To the creators.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
你可以，创作者
You can the creator
但你
But you
可以将它们关闭
can turn them
通过一个Chrome插件。
off with a Chrome plugin.
你实际上做不到。
You actually can't.
有一些创作者会这样做。
There's some creators that do this.
无论如何，在应用中展示这些功能，我认为会帮助用户感觉他们拥有更多控制权。
Anyway, surfacing those in apps, I think that will help users feel like they're in more control.
实际上，我认为这对任何平台都不会造成太大损害，因为大多数人不会选择启用，但某些人会。
And realistically, I don't think it will be super damaging to any of the platforms because most people won't opt into that, but certain people will.
而且总体而言，这将普遍提升公众的观感。
And in general, it'll it'll just, like, increase public perception broadly.
我们已经看到许多LLM公司就是这样，你可以进入，进行微调，添加自定义提示，与它讨论你喜欢和不喜欢的内容，改变它的个性。
We've already seen this with a lot of the LLM companies where, like, you can go in, you can fine tune and and add a custom prompt and kind of talk to it about what you like and don't like, change the personality.
我觉得大家提出希望把这个功能开放出来的需求已经有很长时间了。
I think people have been asking for that for a long time, surfacing it.
这看起来是个双赢的方案，所以这类的举措应该是迟早都会落地的。
It seems like a win win, and so something something along those lines seems seems seems in the cards.
好了，这个问题我们可以之后再讨论，先让我来给大家介绍一下Sentry。
Anyway, we can debate this, but first, let me tell you about Sentry.
Sentry可以向开发人员展示哪里出了问题，并帮助他们快速修复故障。
Sentry shows developers what's broken and helps them fix it fast.
这也是为什么目前有15万家机构都在使用它来保障旗下应用的稳定运行。
That's why a 150,000 organizations use it to keep their apps working.
接下来我再给大家介绍一下Plaid。
And let me also tell you about Plaid.
Plaid为大家常用的消费、储蓄、借贷和投资类应用提供技术支持，它能安全地关联银行账户以实现资金流转、防范欺诈，还能优化借贷服务，如今更是融入了人工智能技术。
Plaid powers the apps you use to spend save, borrow and invest securely connecting bank accounts to move money, fight fraud and improve lending now with AI.
那大家对我的观点还有什么其他反对意见吗？之前泰勒就提出了一些不同的看法。
So do you have any other pushback on my take Tyler had some pushback.
我们去找他吗？
Should we go to him?
我们去找泰勒吧。
Let's go to Tyler.
你怎么看？
What do think?
我的意思是，是的。
I mean, yes.
我想有几件事。
I guess there was a few things.
我的意思是，有一件事是像
I mean, one thing is that like
给的赞誉不够。
Not enough props.
对吧？
Right?
比喻太多了吗？
Too many analogies?
寓言太多了吗？
Too many parables?
我的意思是，你可以这么说，好吧，问题是出在内容上。
Like, I I I think you can say that like, okay, yeah, it's the content that's the problem.
嗯哼。
Mhmm.
但内容其实是功能的下游产物。
But, like, the content is, like, kind of downstream of the features.
对吧？
Right?
因为你没看到，比如短视频这种形式
Because you didn't see, like, short form video
媒介即信息。
The medium is the message.
是的。
Yes.
因此，我有可能创建一个鼓励成瘾性内容的平台。
And so it it is possible for me to create a platform that incentivizes addictive content.
而这正是留存率曲线。
And that's like the retention curve.
所以留存率优化会让内容更具成瘾性。
So retention editing makes it more addictive.
你会对内容上瘾，但这是因为功能设计。
You become addicted to the content, but it's because of the features.
对。
Yeah.
所以我认为这大致上是
So I I think that's like broadly
很好的论点。
Pretty good argument.
你可以为‘是的’这个立场构建一个最强版本。
The steel man that you you can make for Yeah.
就像莱尼尔的立场。
Like Lanier's position.
是的。
Yeah.
然后，我的意思是，关于尼古丁的类比，我们之前讨论过这个，嗯。
And then, I mean, there's other stuff I I think on, like, just the nicotine analogy, we were talking about this, like Mhmm.
好的。
Okay.
所以尼古丁 broadly 来说，再往下细分，吸烟显然对你非常有害。
So you have nicotine, like, broadly, and then below nicotine, have, like, smoking, which is, like, definitely very bad for you.
嗯。
Mhmm.
然后你还有像尼古丁贴片之类的东西，这可能没那么糟，因为只有尼古丁，没有烟草，所以也许没那么有害。
And then you have, like, you know, pouches or stuff like this, which is probably less bad, like it's just nicotine, there's no tobacco, so like maybe this is like less bad.
所以也许吧。
So maybe Yeah.
这就像Instagram上那些酷炫的滑雪视频，对吧。
The equivalent is like, you know, the the cool snowboarding videos on Instagram Yep.
就像是更干净的尼古丁产品，然后比如。
Are like the, you know, the the cleaner like nicotine stuff and then the like.
仍然会上瘾，但没有危害。
Still addictive but not harmful.
是的。
Yes.
然后除非你是乔丹，否则你
And then there's Unless you're Jordan, you're
会试图完成双轴转体1260度，结果被摔得够呛。
gonna try and do a double cork twelve sixty and and eat Get smoked.
被狠狠摔进地里。
Get smoked into the ground.
对。
Yeah.
但是另一方面，就像Instagram上那些非常露骨、我们不想让大家看到的内容一样。
But but but then on the other side, you have like the like, you know, very graphic stuff on Instagram that like we don't want people to see.
那类内容就好比是会致癌之类的香烟。
And that's like the, you know, the the cigarettes that's like gonna give you cancer or whatever.
没错。
Sure.
没错。
Sure.
所以我觉得……我是说，我大体上还是同意你说的，但就是……
So I I think they're like I I mean, I guess I still agree with what you're saying, but like
嗯不对，应该是“对，尼古丁这东西。”
Well, nicotine Yeah.
这就是为什么
This is what
香烟要是你未满18岁，你就
the cigarette If you're under 18, you
不能购买。
can't buy.
这就好比说，烟草里有两种成分，一种是成瘾性成分，另一种是致癌成分，当时需要把这两种成分区分开来。
Which was like there was an addictive component and then there was a carcinogenic component, and they needed to sort of separate those out.
最终整个社会达成的共识是，根据美国食品药品监督管理局的说法，管控成瘾性成分的做法是合理的，它适用于保护公众健康的要求。
And where we landed as a society was like the addictive component is acceptable for the it's suitable for the protection of public health, according to the FDA.
所以他们现在批准的是那些会让人上瘾但不会致癌的新产品。
And so they are approving new products that are addictive but not carcinogenic.
那你可以想象，哪怕是执行最严格的规定——要求所有新的社交媒体平台都必须经过审批，你照样有可能在这款应用里使用所有那些能让人上瘾的功能，只要里面的内容不会对人造成负面影响就行。
And so you would imagine even in the most strict ruling where every new social media platform needs to be approved, you could potentially use all of those addictive features as long as the content was not carcinogenic with inside that app.
对。
Yeah.
那这种情况就好比
And that would be like
一种新型尼古丁口香糖，基本上是这样。
a new nicotine gum, basically.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，现在如果你不满18岁，仍然可以绕过家长控制，比如你不能使用13岁以下的平台之类的，但这些规定执行得非常差。
Like, basically, I'm saying, like, right now, if you're under 18, you can still like, there's, like, parental controls and you you if you can't be under 13 or whatever, but like, it's like very not it's like poorly, know, enforced.
实际上，你能看到很多不良内容，是的。
Like, you can actually see a lot of the the bad stuff Yeah.
你未满
You're under
18岁，是的。
18 on Yeah.
或者不管怎样。
Or whatever.
对。
Yep.
所以，从方向上来说，你可以反对这项规定。
So like directionally, you know, you can be against the the the ruling of this Yeah.
但人们所要求的家长控制功能，仍然根本不存在。
But, like, the the parental controls that people are, like, asked for are still, very much not there.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
不。
No.
这说得通。
That makes sense.
所以，我认为我有一个潜在的解决方案。
So I I I think I have a potential solution.
我们来看一下欧洲香烟包装的这张图片。
Let's pull up this image of a cigarette package in Europe.
哦，是的。
Oh, yeah.
这是什么？
What is this?
把这个调出来。
So pull this up.
我们调出来吧。
Let's pull up.
这是最具挑战性的难题。
This is the hardest challenge.
在我们调出之前，我跟你说说Okta。
While we pull it up, let me tell you about Okta.
Okta帮助你为每个代理分配可信身份，让你在没有风险的情况下获得AI的力量。
Okta helps you assign every agent a trusted identity so you get the power of AI without the risk.
保护每个代理。
Secure every agent.
保护任何代理。
Secure any agent.
让我再跟你介绍一下 Turbo Puffer。
And let me also tell you about Turbo Puffer.
搜索功能。
Were search.
基于光存储技术从零构建。
Built from first principles in optic storage.
速度快，成本低十分之一，且极具可扩展性。
Fast, 10 x cheaper, and extremely scalable.
好的。
Okay.
约翰，这就是欧洲常见的香烟包装。
So this is like typical cigarette packaging in Europe, John.
你可能不知道，因为你是个典型的美国人，非常忠诚，尽量避免出国旅行。
You probably wouldn't know this because you're very American and you're very loyal and you avoid overseas trips as much as possible.
所以在欧洲，任何一包香烟上你都会看到一张非常可怕的图片。
So on any given cigarette pack in Europe, you're gonna see like a really terrible image.
这个女人 apparently 在咳血。
This woman apparently is coughing up blood.
是的。
Yes.
所以我认为，Meta 可以采取的一个潜在解决方案是：当你一打开 Instagram，它就会根据你最近在社交媒体上发布的照片，生成一张让你看起来非常糟糕的 AI 图像。
So I think what a potential solution that Meta could do is as soon as you open Instagram, it makes an AI generated image based on the last picture of you that you posted on social media and it just makes you look terrible.
哦。
Oh.
然后它会显示类似警告：社交媒体会毁了你。
And it says like warning like social media will destroy you.
它可能会给你展示
It could show you
然后你就可以滑过
And then you can scroll past
我可以用Tech Nac来给你展示一下。
I could potentially show you with Tech Nac.
你熟悉Tech Nac吗？
Are you familiar with Tech Nac?
是的。
Yes.
对。
Yes.
它会显示你患有科技颈的可怕样子。
It's just a crazy image of you at Tech neck
它会展示出
It shows
你患有科技颈。
you a tech neck.
然后你就可以划过去了，好的。
Then so you can scroll past it Yeah.
每次你打开那个应用，都会看到一张新图片。
Every time you open that app, it's a new image.
这是一种提醒。
It's a reminder.
它展示的是你看起来最糟糕的样子，浪费着你的生命。
It's a new image of you looking
是的。
Yeah.
最糟糕的样子，浪费着你的生命。
The worst, wasting your life away.
AI实验室是否在游说以让这个被移除？
Are the AI labs lobbying to get this
我们可以把这东西收起来。
We can put this away.
AI实验室是否在游说以让这个被移除？
Are the AI labs lobbying to get that removed?
因为我认为他们大多数的时间表都暗示，肺癌随时可能被人工智能治愈。
Because I think most of their timelines suggest that lung cancer will be cured by AI any day now.
所以你可能会重新开始吸烟。
So potentially you could start smoking again.
有人公开支持吸烟吗？
Has anyone come out as pro smoking?
我觉得Anthropic不会这么说，他们是反Anthropic的，你知道的，他们说Yeah，
Don't think anthropics come out with These are They're anti anthropic, you know, has Yeah,
反防晒霜。
anti sunscreen.
他们对记者开的玩笑。
The joke that they make with journalists.
是的。
Yeah.
他们有点被抓住在反面，但如果
They kind of got caught on anti But if
AI将会治愈肝癌，这场游戏开始了。
AI is going to cure liver cancer, it's game on.
这场游戏开始了。
It's game on.
这场游戏开始了。
It's game on.
你可以想喝多少就喝多少，因为关键在于，喝太多会导致肝病。
You can drink as much as you want because that's the thing because you get liver disease if you drink too much.
如果AI能帮我编写mRNA疫苗来治愈我的肝癌，那我肯定稳了。
And so if AI if I'm going be able to vibe code an mRNA vaccine to cure my liver cancer, I'm gonna be oozing for sure.
这是唯一合理的选择。
It's the only only rational thing to do.
是的。
Yeah.
嗯，这在某种程度上也像是
Well, this is also kind of like
当排序
when Sort
一种理性的做法。
of a rational one.
当一些公司说，工作与生活平衡非常重要时。
When companies like are saying like, oh, work life balance is super important.
是的。
Yeah.
那么他们的竞争对手就会，你知道的
So then their competitors will, you know
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
因为这就像，是的。
Because it's like yeah.
相关领域的人应该建议人们去使用OpenAI，因为通用人工智能会治愈肝病。
People on topic should should tell people to open AI to start drinking because AGI is gonna cure liver disease.
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
这很好。
This is good.
这很好。
This is good.
好的。
Okay.
咱们再聊聊《杰森一家》这部作品吧。
Let's revisit The Jetsons.
好的。
Okay.
再聊聊《杰森一家》。
Revisit The Jetsons.
我猜你肯定看过《杰森一家》。
I'm sure you've seen the Jetsons.
我的飞行汽车和每天三小时的工作制在哪里？
Where's my flying car and three hour workday?
所以我准备去了解一下《杰森一家》这部作品了。
So I'm gonna be learning about the Jetsons.
好的。
Okay.
约翰会回来跟进这件事的。
John is gonna be revisiting.
我心中的未来版本比我们的现实有趣多了。
I version of the future is way more fun than our reality.
但说到创新，我们正在迎头赶上。
But when it comes to innovations, we're catching up.
有意思。
Interesting.
我们来看看。
Let's see.
尼科尔说，我最近花了一个周末对未来科技进行了深入调查研究。
Nicole says, I recently spent a weekend doing deep investigative research into future technologies.
我穿着运动裤一口气看完了《杰森一家》。
I binged The Jetsons in my sweatpants.
对于不了解或已经忘记的人，这部太空时代家庭情景喜剧讲述了乔治和简·杰森一家，他们住在天空中的公寓里，有两个孩子、一只狗阿斯特罗和机器人女仆罗斯ie。
For the uninitiated, the forgetful, this space age family sitcom features George and Jane Jetson living the American dream in an apartment in the sky with their two children, dog Astro and robot maid Rosie.
该剧设定在2062年，比其1962年首播时间超前了一个世纪。
The show is set in 2062, a century ahead from its original 1962 air date.
剧中充满了各种奇幻的发明，比如飞行汽车、自动做饭机，还有带火警柱的狗用跑步机。
It's full of fantastical inventions such as flying cars, dinner generating machines, and canine treadmills complete with fire hydrants.
这种乐观的氛围与当今那些末日般、有时甚至充满暴力的科幻作品截然不同。
The upbeat vibe is markedly different from the apocalyptic, at times murderous, sci fi of today.
二十世纪六十年代人们对二十一世纪充满乐观期待，而其中一些设想如今真的实现了。
The nineteen sixties were full of optimism about what the twenty first century would bring, and some of it actually has come true.
虽然我们离杰森一家所处的时代还有几十年，但我深入研究了这部剧中的几项关键技术，并评估了我们目前的进展有多接近。
While we've still got a few decades before the Jetsons family is meant to arrive, I dug into some of the show's technological hallmarks and determined how close we already are.
视频通话。
Video calling.
她说，当然。
She says, absolutely.
杰森一家没有家用电话，而是使用视频电话。
In lieu of a home phone, the Jetsons had a video phone.
尽管剧集创作者无法想象移动设备的存在，但他们对视频通话的设想却非常准确。
Just Show's creators couldn't fathom mobile devices, but they were spot on about video calling.
不过，说清楚一点，我们还在和我们的商业伙伴一起改进视频通话，不能中途卡住然后就中断。
Now now, to be clear, we we are still working on with one of our business associates like a video call that doesn't stop halfway through Yeah.
然后直接取消。
And just cancel.
但是
But
所以，《杰森一家》没有预测到免费版本。
So the Jetsons didn't predict the free tier
Zoom的免费版？
of Zoom?
是的。
Yeah.
Zoom的免费版在《杰森一家》里根本没被考虑过，你明明打算开长时间会议，Zoom却直接说再见。
The free tier of Zoom was not considered in in the in the Jetsons where you're you're clearly gonna go long on the meeting and Zoom's just like, goodbye.
结束了。
It's over.
结束了。
It's over.
现在会毫无预警地自动结束。
It kicks over now with no notice.
这是新出现的现象吗？
Is that a new thing?
我觉得以前会倒计时。
I feel like it used to do a countdown.
我觉得以前也会倒计时，但现在
I think it did a countdown too, but now
他们直接就说：我们就是要让主持人难堪。
it's just Now they're just like, we wanna embarrass the host.
Plus会员版本将会
The plus tier is gonna
所以《杰森一家》里，他们甚至能用深度伪造技术代替本人出现在镜头前。
blow So in Jetsons, they can even create deep fakes to stand in for them on camera.
哇哦。
Woah.
这很酷。
That's cool.
我之前没意识到这一点。
I didn't realize that.
FaceTime 已经上去了。
FaceTime's kinda got on there.
哦，还有另一件事，FaceTime 还没解决：如果你给一群人打 FaceTime，是的。
Oh, this is You know the other thing they haven't cracked with FaceTime is like if you FaceTime a group of people Yeah.
大多数人都收不到通知，根本不知道通话正在进行。
Like most of the people won't even get notification and don't know that it's happening.
所以我们还没解决通知部分的
So we haven't cracked the the notification part of
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
打电话。
Call.
这很好。
This is good.
读下一张幻灯片。
Read read this next slide.
当乔治秘密参加机器人足球赛时，他的仿生体告诉简他得加班。
When George secretly attended a robot football game, his simulacrum told Jane he had to work late.
他就像在用深度伪造技术欺骗他的妻子。
He's like using a deep fake to lie to his wife.
太好了。
Great.
这太六十年代了。
This is so sixties.
不要这样做。
Do not do this.
不要这样做。
Do not do this.
这太反乌托邦了。
This is dystopian.
飞行汽车。
Flying cars.
并不是一切都充满乐观，过于
It's not all optimism over over
飞行汽车和交通管，有点儿吧。
Flying cars and travel tubes, sort of.
在轨道城，人们很少走路。
There isn't much walking in Orbit City.
一条传送带把乔治从床铺送到浴室，再送到教室。
A conveyor belt brings George from bed to the bathroom to get to and from his classroom.
埃罗伊通过一系列被称为学校归家网络的空气管道飞行。
Elroy jets through a series of air tubes called the school homing network.
当错误的孩子来到杰特森家时，詹森只需按一个按钮就能把他送回去。
When the wrong child shows up at the Jetsons' home, Jensen sends Jane sends him back with a push of a button.
他们还使用个人交通工具，通常是那种能飞行的车辆。
And they also use personal vehicles, the ones that typically fly.
乔治乘坐一种可以折叠成公文包的玻璃圆顶飞碟通勤。
George arrow commutes and a glass dome saucer that folds into a briefcase.
这很酷。
That's cool.
我们离那个目标还很远。
We're we're pretty far from there.
我们确实有直升机，但它们非常昂贵。
We do have helicopters but they're very expensive.
我总是和人争论‘飞行汽车不存在’这个观点，因为我们确实有直升机，有些人能用，但它们远不够便宜。
I always fight people on the flying cars don't exist thing because like we do have helicopters and people some people get to use those, but they are not nearly cheap enough.
但我们得让它们飞得更低。
But we gotta get them we gotta get them way down.
在这里的真正未来，我们仍然在路面上驾驶着轰鸣的汽车。
Here in the actual future, we're still toting around on pavement pounding automobiles.
然而，飞行汽车的一个版本已经非常真实了。
A version of flying cars, however, is very real.
它被称为电动垂直起降飞行器（eVTOL）。
It's called an eVTOL.
看看这个。
Look at this.
Blackfly 是一款单人驾驶的飞机，可以在无限制的空域中自由飞行。
Blackfly is a solo piloted aircraft free to operate in unrestricted spares airspace.
一个升级版本叫做 Helix，可以用于 190 公里的航程。
An upgraded version called the Helix can be used for a 190 k.
你甚至不需要飞行员执照。
You don't even need a pilot's license.
那感觉已经挺接近了。
That's like, pretty close.
但话说回来，我还是得说，我们离真正的飞行汽车时代还远着呢，事实就是如此。
But, I mean, I would still say, like, we are not near the flying car because they're just not.
举个例子，现在搭乘飞行汽车的次数，比Waymo自动驾驶的出行次数少太多了。
Like, it it there are way less flying car rides than Waymo's, for example.
所以我们还没到那一步呢。
So we're just not right there.
都是按个按钮就能操作的活儿
Push button jobs.
差不多就是这样
Almost.
乔治在斯佩西太空链轮公司担任数字索引操作员，每周工作三天，每天大约只需要工作三小时
George works as a digital index operator at Spacely Space Sprockets for approximately three hours a day, three days a week.
作为一个“按钮操作员”，哪怕他一天里大部分时间都翘着脚躺在工位上，赚的钱也足够养活一家四口了
As a button pusher, he makes enough for to support a family of four even though majority of his day is spent with his feet up on his desk.
好的。
Okay.
他们基本上完美地做到了。
They basically nailed this.
有一些
There's some
现在有一些人本质上就是按钮操作员，靠直觉写代码。
people out there that are basically button pushers right now, vibe coding.
是的。
Yeah.
收入方面还不确定。
TBD on on the revenue side.
没错。
True.
但是
But
每天工作三小时，每周工作三天。
Working three hours a day, three days a week.
你知道的，我们每天工作三小时，每周工作五天。
You know, we we we work three hours a day, five days a week.
也许未来只是周一、周三、周五直播，我们可以过上《杰森一家》那样的生活。
And maybe the future's three just Monday, Wednesday, Friday streams, we can live the the Jetsons future.
我们工作的时间我不确定。
And we work I don't know.
那对我们来说将是毁灭性的。
That would be That be devastating for us.
是的。
Yeah.
在那之前，我们会继续
Until then, we'll be
致力于太空殖民。
working space colonization.
不。
Nope.
是的。
Yeah.
他们住在地球上方，房屋建在高高的支柱上。
They live above Earth with houses built on tall stilts.
我喜欢这个。
I like that.
为了避开地球上的环境不便，这些支柱可以升到任何恶劣天气之上，而太空本身也并非遥不可及。
To avoid the planet's environmental inconveniences, the stilts can rise above any inclement weather, and space itself isn't out of reach.
在经典一集中，埃洛伊参加了一次前往小行星的学校旅行。
In a classic episode, Elroy goes to an asteroid on a school filled trip.
我们还没到那一步。
We're not quite there.
马斯克曾宣扬要殖民火星，但现在他的关注点已转向更近的月球。
Musk had preached of populating Mars, but now his focus has turned closer to the moon.
与此同时，美国、中国、俄罗斯、阿联酋和欧洲航天局之间的星际太空竞赛正在如火如荼地进行。
Meanwhile, an interplanetary space race between US, China, Russia, and UAE, and the European Space Agency is well underway.
机器人女仆？还不完全是，但我们正越来越接近这个目标。
Robot maids, not exactly, but we're getting much closer there.
有趣的是，布雷特·阿德科克今天要来。
It's funny that that Brett Adcock's coming on today.
是的。
Yeah.
他正在研发飞行汽车。
And he's working on the flying car.
对。
Yeah.
他正在研发机器人女仆。
He's working on the robot maid.
在研发机器人女仆。
Working on the robot maid.
他还没有涉及太空领域。
He doesn't have a space thing yet.
他现在的新实验室基本上就像一个按钮，一个按按钮的人。
He's now working his new lab is basically like a button, a button pusher.
诱导疼痛，是的。
Induced pain, yes.
而现在是这个节目最大的疏漏：没有触摸屏。
And now for the show's biggest oversight, no touch screens.
虽然有很多视觉显示，但主要通过旋钮、操纵杆和其他物理控制来操作。
There are lots of visual displays, they're primarily operated by dials, levers and other physical controls.
我们在演播室里有一些操纵杆。
We got some levers back there in the studio.
尽管这个节目没有预见到触摸屏，但它准确地捕捉到了频繁使用电子设备的一个关键副作用——重复性运动损伤。
While the show may not have anticipated touch screens, it nailed a key side effect of constant use of gadgets, repetitive motion injuries.
轨道城到处都是按钮，过度使用手指是节目中的一个持续笑点。
Orbit City is full of buttons and overworked fingers are a running gag on the show.
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